532 Comments

1. jaymaster:

Based on what we saw here, I’m pretty sure a few of them had your blog bookmarked!

Aug 14, 2008 - 2:28 pm 2. Insufficiently Sensitive:

And the Russians merely need to write in the style to which US academics and media members are accustomed: US culpable for almost all sins wherever committed, and other parties governmental or non-governmental needn’t be held to account.

Also, the writers have decades of examples of MSM moral equivalence to learn from, and are becoming expert at mirroring our concerns of civil ‘rights’ back at us as justifications for the thuggery of the day.

It’s of growing concern that the US (and world) media has taken upon itself the role of disloyal opposition. The eagerness to paint the Bush administration black in all things has metastastasized far beyond the gadfly position. This does nothing beneficial in the informing of our citizens of current events.

Aug 14, 2008 - 2:30 pm 3. sigintel:

I’ve been surfing many of the online news sources to glean info about the Russo-Georgian war. Where there are comments allowed, I was overwhelmed by the number of pro-Russian comments and as we’ve seen here at BC, the psyops poster is sometimes nuanced and hard to detect. An American Cyber Army operated somewhat like the Civil Air Patrol,that could be called on to fight a cyberwar, might be something that the youth of America could get behind?

Aug 14, 2008 - 2:33 pm 4. RAH:

Russian disinformation campaigned failed. Even the venerable Gray Lady figured out who were the bad guys this time. Maybe because they had so many people who study history or interested in Russia.

I was very surprised at the media coverage that were cautious about death and mayhem claims by the Russians. Every time the media, from Al Jaazera to CNN, said that casualty numbers could not be confirmed. Also that tales of brutality could not be confirmed.

The worst reports were the number of civilians in S. Ossetia that were hiding in the basement without supplies.

You know if I lived in an area that was expecting a war to brew up I probably would have food, camp stove and water stored in my improvised bomb shelter.

After all we have to have lots of survival strategies for hurricanes etc.

Aug 14, 2008 - 2:37 pm 5. ks:

I’ll take the laser in the machine.

Aug 14, 2008 - 2:39 pm 6. sigintel:

wretchard said:”The MSM in particular is structurally incapable of classifying and analyzing new information at a near real-time rate. It can be cyberherded easily. And because it is institutionally perpetually amateur, it often can’t even tell when it is being had.

What I’ve witnessed here at the Belmont Club over the last several days has been an outstanding example of ” analyzing new information on a near real-time rate.” No cyberherding here….maybe some far out postulations, bets and guesses though!

Aug 14, 2008 - 2:39 pm 7. RAH:

However the posters that were Russian sympathizers were fairly obvious. FreeRepublic noticed about after 3 days the number of new posters with pro Russian stories.

Here in the States we fight the PR info war between ideologues or liberal vs. conservatives. We are pretty tuned to it and see it easily. Besides Americans who live in Russia like many go native and easily can be pro native vs. American.

Actually I like seeing the other side, we get viewpoints that may show where we are blinkered.

Aug 14, 2008 - 2:42 pm 8. wretchard:

Based on what we saw here, I’m pretty sure a few of them had your blog bookmarked!

This exploits the Small World property, which says that in a system where some nodes are more highly connected than others, there is only a short distance between any two nodes in the system because nearly all of them are joined to a fairly small number of key nodes. This property was exploited by counter-insurgency experts in taking down al-Qaeda.

What it also means is that if you poison a few key nodes with disinformation then the poison spreads to the very ends of the earth. “I saw it on Global Voices, Huffington Post, the Belmont Club, etc …” — choose your vector — and the lie is off and running.

I gave a talk in late 2005 describing how the Internet works as an amplifier and filter for memes. The “amplifier” part is important to enemy disinformation. They tailor a message which will pass the host filter (if you feed the Guardian or Huffington Post a piece that blames America, for example) then it will zip past the gates and be amplified. A site’s very traffic can be used against it.

Against this you can set the “wiki” effect which you can observe on the Belmont Club. After a piece of information is posted, the various skeptics begin to examine it for accuracy, consistency and logic. And often the lies or mistakes are thereby unmasked. One of the reasons I try to encourage a diversity of commenters on this site is to make the filter unpredictable. When there’s too much groupthink, then you are a sitting duck for a piece of engineered information.

But we’ll never win this war through purely defensive measures. We need to push forward into enemy cyberspace, as it were, to deliver our own memes. More on this when I think about it.

Aug 14, 2008 - 2:42 pm 9. Cannoneer No. 4:

Information Warfare: All the World is a Stage

Aug 14, 2008 - 2:50 pm 10. JBean:

wretchard:

“I gave a talk in late 2005 describing how the Internet works as an amplifier and filter for memes. The “amplifier” part is important to enemy disinformation. They tailor a message which will pass the host filter (if you feed the Guardian or Huffington Post a piece that blames America, for example) then it will zip past the gates and be amplified. A site’s very traffic can be used against it.”

Yes, but first you have to decide which site is more likely to believe, embace or accept the message. The Guardian,  Huffington Post and the NY Times are soft and willing receptors: they want to believe.

Aug 14, 2008 - 2:55 pm 11. Al:

I suspect that the so called “cyberwar” is the work of bored teenagers in their parents’ basements. If any government actually pays people to do it, they are the biggest dupes. The government, that is, are the dupes, not the “cyberwarriors”.

Aug 14, 2008 - 2:57 pm 12. Roy Lofquist:

A book published in 1990 describes how an astronomer at Berkeley National labs detected the first known Soviet attempt to hack military computers.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Cuckoo%27s_Egg

The book is well written, interesting and entertaining.

Aug 14, 2008 - 2:58 pm 13. wretchard:

There are two memetic aspects to a cyber-attack. The first is to manipulate or change the weights of the meme-spreading network. That is done by planting disinformation in the key nodes, as I’ve described in the comment above. But the second is to suppress original material and salient facts.

Did you know that Wikipedia has a policy against posting original material? That’s because original material is, in the first instance, unverified. It becomes hallowed by a process of consensus or information cascade. But at its genesis, most of our original material comes from the press and increasingly, onsite bloggers. The real significance of denial of service attacks on the .ge (Georgia) domains was to suppress original material, to preserve the Big Lie for as long as possible. The Big Lie is eventually unmasked, but the process is lagged, by which time it has been supplanted by another Big Lie. And since the Press jumps like a frog, from lilypad to lilypad of subject matter, (not through personal incompetence but because of the way the news model works) then it is a perfect subject for disinformation. Putin just needs to leave a trail of lilypads …

The obvious way to stop this is to dump the last 3 months of packet stats into a database, mine it for patterns and determine the profile of the threat. And then we need to create triggers that will spot this profile or something structurally like it and send an alert. Then the options are, to shape their bandwidth, yank their cables, disinform their disinformers, wage a counter meme shaping campaign of their own. This is not rocket science. The key breakthrough will be political will and managerial focus.

Aug 14, 2008 - 3:02 pm 14. ks:

The moves being made by Bush, and those which will be made in the future, are going to make a very interesting list once we have enough distance from this thing to compile it.

I do believe our strategy is to consolidate strategic gains everywhere, to cash in some political capital, to use the energy of Russia’s move against her, like a Judo throw.

No matter how this ends, Russia will be in a much worse strategic position than before.

Aug 14, 2008 - 3:10 pm 15. Al:

“No matter how this ends, Russia will be in a much worse strategic position than before.”

That’s right! We’ll expand NATO right to its borders! We’ll build military installation in close proximity! We’ll block Russia’s ascension into WTO! Maybe we’ll even bomb its ally!

Oh, wait…

Aug 14, 2008 - 3:18 pm 16. Mike Sylwester:

In the sentence
—
The most interesting aspect was how they mobilized bloggers to carry the Kremlin’s agenda forward.
—
who is “they”?

Exactly where in the Foreign Policy article does it say — explicitly or implicitly — that bloggers were mobilized to carry the Kremlin’s agenda forward by some group you designate by the word “they”?

Aug 14, 2008 - 3:19 pm 17. sirius_sir:

there were virtually no images from the first

That fact should have raised suspicions from the first. The Russians claimed Georgian cruelties as a pretext for this adventure. They were not unprepared to act, just unprepared to allow the world to know the actual truth. How hard would it have been to transmit real-time images? Even an amateur with a cell phone can do it. But that is the problem. The state easily stands to lose control in such an instance. And while photo-doctoring has its uses, real-time narratives don’t easily lend themselves to such manipulations.

It would seem the focus lay on trying to dominate the verbal message and hope in that way to mold world opinion. Some people were taken in. I heard more than one person, supposedly intelligent and informed, swallow the Russian line whole. (One commentator based his opinion on a verbatim reading of an official Russian statement.)

The problem for (in this case the Russian) authoritarians, though, is that while the universities and the MSM might still be easily vulnerable to their machinations, the internet has trained its more sentient users to be sceptical, if not reflexively suspicious. Most of us, initiated by Rathergate and Nigerian money scams, aren’t easily taken in. The Russian blogswarmers, bless them, gave it their best shot. But lies and propaganda don’t sway like they used to.

The Pootie Patrol needs to up the quality of its game.

Aug 14, 2008 - 3:20 pm 18. Cannoneer No. 4:

sigintel, I’ve been trying for years to interest Americans in People’s Information Support Teams and Cyber Militias with very modest success.

Aug 14, 2008 - 3:26 pm 19. Annoy Mouse:

The Russians would have been advised to get the cameras rolling ala Wag the Dog or Fauxtography. But they can’t be credited with being too stupid they successfully manage the MSM because the MSM is just as interested in being fooled as they don’t have to make their own incredulous leap of faith in conspiracy laden assumptions. It is like craning one’s neck at the slow motion train wreck of humanity so often captured in the National Enquirer. Lazy minds would like to veg out and watch for the entertainment value alone.

Aug 14, 2008 - 3:26 pm 20. sirius_sir:

Putin just needs to leave a trail of lilypads …

I’d argue he has. And that’s the problem, for him.

Aug 14, 2008 - 3:29 pm 21. ash:

Those on the right seem to seek out information which confirms their outlook on the world. With this latest post I can see any dissenter here at BC being written off as a cyber plant and even more easily ignored.

You don’t think the CIA or other like minded institution in the states funded pro Iraqi invasion blogs (i.e. Iraqthemodel) do you? The US is too far behind to the curve to do something like that, isn’t it?

Aug 14, 2008 - 3:29 pm 22. wretchard:

News just in says that Poland just signed on to the missile defense deal.

Warsaw and Washington signed a preliminary deal Thursday on basing part of a US missile shield in Poland, in the face of Moscow’s vehement opposition and mounting East-West tensions over Georgia. US and Polish negotiators inked the accord in a ceremony after two days of talks in the Polish capital.

I wonder if the above should be rewritten as: Warsaw and Washington signed a preliminary deal Thursday on basing part of a US missile shield in Poland, because of mounting East-West tensions over Georgia.

If Georgia or the West had been ready to exploit the informational value of the Russian move Putin would be in real trouble. As it is, Russia may be facing a strategic catastrophe. Germany has encouraged Georgia to apply for NATO membership. Germany. There’s a desire not only to stop Putin but stick it to him. And back east, the Chinese Pac-men continue to chomp, chomp, chomp on Russia’s extremities.

Information warfare in the service of strategic idiocy is still idiocy.

Aug 14, 2008 - 3:32 pm 23. Dan:

“…Most of us, initiated by Rathergate and Nigerian money scams, aren’t easily taken in. The Russian blogswarmers, bless them, gave it their best shot. But lies and propaganda don’t sway like they used to.”

Which gives rise to the thought; will lies and propaganda EVER sway like they used to? Everything, and I mean EVERYTHING, is viewed with a jaundiced eye nowadays.

And as you correctly pointed out; skepticism is not just a luxury or option on these intertubes. It’s an ingrained and vital part of the search (notwithstanding Kos, et al).

Every statement, photo and quote is cut to pieces, then re-assembled, over and over again. And not by just ONE person, but rather a “community,” like this one. The wealth of knowledge and diversity of viewpoints and experience present in a community such as this, makes it, in a short time, bomb-proof to these kinds of things.

Or am I WAY off here?

Aug 14, 2008 - 3:33 pm 24. Lifeofthemind:

Wish there was a better way to know when a new thread starts. PJM still needs work.

Aug 14, 2008 - 3:36 pm 25. Al:

It’s true that, at first, there was very few photographs coming out of Tskhinvali. You have to remember that the place was very dangerous. It’s not like an aftermath of an Israeli or American strike that can be photographed at leasure. It was a real warzone and several reporters got killed trying to get there. Including the ones embedded with the Russian army.

But there was something. For aexample, here is the video of Georgian troops shelling Tskhinvali with Grads.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7548611.stm
Shouldn’t that be a war crime?

There was also plenty of eyewitness accounts by refugees. However, for some reason our media went to great length to ignore it. Here is an unintentionally funny example.
http://digg.com/world_news/Fox_News_12_Year_Old_Girl_Tells_the_Truth_about_Georgia_3

Aug 14, 2008 - 3:42 pm 26. Hope Muntz:

I’ve felt for some time that all internet traffic coming out of Russia should simply be blocked. We don’t need the Russians online anyway–all they’ve ever offered is piracy, viruses, botnets, and sex scams at best and attacks on other countries at worst, first Estonia, now Georgia. Who needs them? I’ve known several Russians online well, one of them is one of my best friends. They all say we should block the .ru until the Russians stop repressing their own users (most Russians now use Linux because of a Microsoft purge the government conducted after they were asked by MS to pay license fees), stop tracking their own citizens over it, launching cyber-attacks, etc.

Next time this happens, Wretchard–and it will–please just delete the pro-Russian posts as fast as they come in. They are an embarrassment to your site, just like porn popups or viagra spam would be. Most of them are only half-literate anyway. And if any babies get tossed out with the bathwater–well that’s just the Russian way, isn’t it?

Aug 14, 2008 - 3:43 pm 27. Doug:

“Germany has encouraged Georgia to apply for NATO membership. Germany. ”
—
but, but…
What about Schroeder?
What about GAZPROM???

Aug 14, 2008 - 3:44 pm 28. Eggplant:

Dan said:

“I mean EVERYTHING, is viewed with a jaundiced eye nowadays…. notwithstanding Kos, et al”

That little “nothwithstanding” could end up electing B. Hussein as our next President. An amazing number of people have swallowed the Leftist narrative.

Aug 14, 2008 - 3:51 pm 29. sirius_sir:

Germany has encouraged Georgia to apply for NATO membership. Germany.

The Germans woke up to the possibility that the Russkies might want half of their country back too.

Aug 14, 2008 - 3:54 pm 30. Annoy Mouse:

Ash; you an old cyber plant, cyber weed even.

Aug 14, 2008 - 4:01 pm 31. Doug:

“Also, the writers have decades of examples of MSM moral equivalence to learn from, and are becoming expert at mirroring our concerns of civil ‘rights’ back at us as justifications for the thuggery of the day.”
—
Sensitive:
Have the Muzzies been better students than the Ruskies?

Aug 14, 2008 - 4:04 pm 32. Cannoneer No. 4:

Concerned Netizens for Internal Defense and Development

Aug 14, 2008 - 4:06 pm 33. Tony:

Wowsers, Poland just said yes to hosting the Star Wars missiles. Bravo! I thought they were cowed by Russia’s blustering over the last few months, I couldn’t have been more wrong, maybe. Or perhaps it’s the opposite, Poland thought it better to let sleeping bears lie without provocation, until Russia proved that the bear isn’t sleeping at all, he’s ready to rampage like Georgia so it’s time to put him back in the cage.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aakWCWAS_u34&refer=worldwide

Aug 14, 2008 - 4:09 pm 34. cjm:

anyone that is pro-russian is by definition “enemy”, at least to people who aren’t evil.

the thing is, the msm dies in the process of spreading the poison. in fact, they are almost dead now for just this reason.

Aug 14, 2008 - 4:09 pm 35. Lifeofthemind:

I stand by what I said on the old thread @ 2:20, this looks like We Won, They Lost and I hope that any American official you uses the word “prevail” in the future will suffer a loss of pension.

Aug 14, 2008 - 4:11 pm 36. Cannoneer No. 4:

Geek Battalion

Aug 14, 2008 - 4:13 pm 37. Lifeofthemind:

My vision of the future:
1. India replaces Russia in the UN Security Council.
2. Future of Konigsberg is to be determined by Germany, Poland and Lithuania.
3. Sevastapol is closed to the Russians, The Black Sea Fleet no longer exists.
4. Every person who takes a foreign passport can lose their original citizenship.
5. Georgia, like the US, has the right to expel all non citizens.
6. No Russian troops except embassy guards south of 44º N anywhere on earth.

Aug 14, 2008 - 4:15 pm 38. Doug:

“sigintel, I’ve been trying for years to interest Americans in People’s Information Support Teams and Cyber Militias with very modest success.”
—
Cannoneer:
You had some other Web Service (Not Wordpress) that I didn’t really understand w/my feeble old brain.

Aug 14, 2008 - 4:17 pm 39. JBean:

wretchard –

“If Georgia or the West had been ready to exploit the informational value of the Russian move Putin would be in real trouble.”

This may seem a bit over-optimistic, but I think Saakashvili did the best he could with his over-the-top rhetoric. At the least, he wasn’t silent, and at the best, seemed to realize that it was, at the very core, an information battle. Compare with Lebanon, or jeez, even Bush with Iraq. Saak got his opinions heard — the media had to give him space, even if some sneered.

Aug 14, 2008 - 4:21 pm 40. NahnCee:

Comment the First: Georgia is going to end up like The Mouse That Roared. We will rebuild them to be the Rose of the Caucasus, while Russia’s two new adoptees will degenerate into sullen drunkeness, just like the rest of Russia. It’ll be fun, because I’m pretty sure the Georgians will be fully behind the effort.

Comment the Second: Lots of stories today about Russia shooting at journalists. And ensuing shock and outrage on behalf of those journalists. How odd — after Iraq I sort of thought the new meme would be “we *like* perforated journalists”!

Comment the Third: Disagree that Wretchard should block the obvious Ivans posting here. They’re not any worse than American moonbats and they’re fun to toy with.

Aug 14, 2008 - 4:22 pm 41. exhelodrvr:

wretchard,
“Germany. There’s a desire not only to stop Putin but stick it to him”

At a minimum, I’m sure anyone from what used to be East Germany has a few scores to settle.

Aug 14, 2008 - 4:22 pm 42. RWE:

The problem with conducting offensive cyberwar operations is that you are going to have to lie. The other side is lying, and it would be nice to counter that with truth, but that will not always be possible, at least not right away.

The nice thing about lies is that they can be prepackaged and ready to go. The truth can’t; it is an on-order requirement. The truth has to be dug out, interpreted, proven through analysis. Unfortunately, the fastest way to respond to a lie is another lie.

In the end, the lie would be disproven (and maybe not, ask Michael Moore and Oliver Stone), but by then maybe the whole truth could come out.

Aug 14, 2008 - 4:23 pm 43. wretchard:

Russia is a great power. It’s not going away. It has a glittering destiny before it; always has. The Russians are smart people. They could create cities of glass, maglev rail networks, monuments to art, cities on Mars. If they could get the Putins, Stalins, Yagodas, Yezovs, Berias out of the way. Fausta describes how some of the Russian noveaux riche now live, in Italian villas, whooping it up:

Pierrette, a housekeeper for one Russian, said: “I attended a party where the guests had fun throwing burning €500 notes into the air while everyone split their sides laughing. The domestic staff were later told to collect the ashes. It was sickening.”

Meanwhile, back east, the Chinese man with his boxes of merchandise: rubber slippers, toys, crackers, wire and electrical goods creeps inexorably forward, propelled by a fifteen hour work day. And my guess is that before the end, the Chinese man will wind up buying the Italian Villa and employing the Russians.

Aug 14, 2008 - 4:28 pm 44. buddy larsen:

Speaking of which, the President of Georgia will be on CNN tonight.

Aug 14, 2008 - 4:34 pm 45. Doug:

“but by then maybe the whole truth could come out.”
—
But to the followers of the Messiah, it will remain invisible.

Aug 14, 2008 - 4:34 pm 46. Lifeofthemind:

Saakashvilli was clearly trying to channel Haile Selassie who set the gold standard at the League of Nations.

Aug 14, 2008 - 4:35 pm 47. Lifeofthemind:

Selassie’s speech is still a good read

Aug 14, 2008 - 4:37 pm 48. Cannoneer No. 4:

Doug, that was a totally different blog that I’m mildly embarrassed about now. All OBE. Disregard.

Aug 14, 2008 - 4:39 pm 49. cjm:

if one of pakistan’s nukes went off in russia, who would they retaliate against?

Aug 14, 2008 - 4:41 pm 50. Doug:

Cannoneer: Glad to hear it wasn’t just me!

—
“propelled by a fifteen hour work day”
—
There’s always the chance that the laws of human nature and human physiology will flip, and fifteen hour drunks will prevail over fifteen hour work days!.

Aug 14, 2008 - 4:48 pm 51. Lifeofthemind:

Wretchard,
The Russians could choose to walk into the future and achieve great things but they cling to bitterness, self pity and failure. Now they obsess over the scattered remnants of related minority groups throughout the former empire. Now they are like the inhabitants of our most intractably dysfunctional slums. Some of the shock and exaggerated expectations that colors outside relations with Russia reflects a form of bigotry. Foreigners ask, “How can a people who look so European behave this way?” When they demand the right to control other countries, because of minorities that Russia previously fostered or scattered in those locations, the short answer should be “Tough.” When the German Empire collapsed in 1945 over 16,000,000 ethnic Germans ran to the West. There were no borders to speak of in Eastern Europe before the 19th century and there were German communities that had existed for over a thousand years stretched out past the Black Sea. If anyone wants to live in Russia let them pick up and move. Given the demographics there will be plenty of room for them.

Putin has wasted a one time opportunity provided by the energy bubble to ready Russia for the future. Saudi Arabia has a better long term plan for converting oil wealth in to a future.
The only things Russia produces are:
1. Aids and alcoholism statistics
2. Vodka
3. Weapons of dubious battle field performance
4. Prostitutes
5. Spam and viruses

Aug 14, 2008 - 4:48 pm 52. Dan:

At present, I think the Russians have lost:

1) the tactical advantage
2) the strategic advantage
3) the information war

I’m not sure what else they intend to lose, but driving tanks aimlessly around Georgia with Cossacks in tow does NOT seem to be a very good plan. I have to admit, I do NOT get it. This is not the Russians we were trained to fight against back in the 80s. They’re worse.

You’d think they’d get just a BIT more nervous about those “humanitarian supplies” being flown in.

Aug 14, 2008 - 4:49 pm 53. Annoy Mouse:

He who packages propaganda in the most salacious conspiracy will win. Most everyone clings to a brilliant lie ala Moore or Stone. The more audacious the meme the more likely it will replace history. You couldn’t convince Rosy and others that the WTC wasn’t a GWB plot to stifle gay marriage. Historians of the future will marvel at how superstitious we were.

Of course, this only works with the self effacing, self loathing, unhealthy, polluters that our schools have indoctrinated. It is as if teachers are creating a generation of young who have Acquired Immunological Deficiency Syndrome to the cyber-propaganda-flu.

Aug 14, 2008 - 4:50 pm 54. whiskey:

I don’t think the Russian propaganda efforts succeeded in the most part. And it failed because of structural biases in the West.

The News Media is made up a mostly hereditary, very liberal, very rich, group of people who dislike the Status-quo powers, particularly the West, and love the “underdog.”

Russia is HUGE. Georgia is tiny. Thus, the biases in the media were all for Georgia, and against Russia. Just as they were FOR Hezbollah (viewed as the underdog) and against Israel (viewed as the Western overdog).

Not even his peers are interested in Robert Scheer’s rants in favor of Russia. Because of the built-in underdog bias. Had the affair been entirely Georgia vs. S. Ossetia, the Ossetians would have been the underdog and the MSM would have rooted for them.

As much as Putin understands the West, he has huge gaps because he fundamentally does not understand the mindset of the elites. His glitterati are all new, ours have been around since the 80’s. The 1880’s that is.

Aug 14, 2008 - 4:51 pm 55. buddy larsen:

Haile Selassie turned the world against Benito Mussolini, who thitherto had that trains-on-time sheen to his rep.

Here’s an addendum to Fausta’s friends-of-Putin-make-asses-of-themselves story:

Aug 14, 2008 - 4:54 pm 56. RAH:

I really do not think Russia is the major future threat to the US. The jihad of AQ was only an interlude, a threat of weak forces but which had to be met. Carter had created this threat by failing to support the Shah and then letting a minor country hold our embassy for 444 days. That let the world’s terrorists know it was safe to use the techniques of bombings and hijackings to promote their message.

By failing to response to the rabid dogs we encourage the perception that we are weak. Reagan changed that but the liberal left continued to snipe the whole time. For example, the anti nuclear protesters in Europe about the Pershing missiles. Funny, I remember how they said the same things about Reagan that they have about Bush. Dumb, Stupid, a Cowboy.

The problem is that the MSM had control of the message and they are concentrated with people of liberal tendencies. The anti US types that Buchanan used to rail about.
The Internet has allowed others to get their message out. The propaganda that Rathergate tried to push with forged documents was dismantled overnight. I remember seeing it in real time on Free Republic.

Now the numbers of media sources are huge and hard to manage. Experts in all walks of life can spot BS when it occurs. By the magic of the Internet the number of experts is multiplied by millions rather than the favorite few that can push their narrative.

The Russian attempt was noticed immediately. Severs in other countries stepped up to handle the traffic. The Estonia experience had trained many and enabled counter measures.

The attempt to set the message was clumsy, easily noticed and countered.
The Chinese are much better, they have hacked so many systems both government and private companies. Their intelligence is not just US secrets but all the think tanks, research labs and business companies.

If you travel to China,it is better to have not bring your sim card or hard drive but get them while there. The blackberry’s are hacked instantly in the airports.

Business travelers travel without a hard drive and just get a company one loaded with the data they need to prevent corporate data from being stolen. These are just the methods to prevent secure systems not to be hijacked and hacked.

Pallywood was the best in setting the message in Europe against Israel. It has taken a long time to correct the message of Jenin and even still most people thing the Palestinian version is correct. The problem was that governments just don’t think they can fight this disinformation and then don’t try. It took private efforts to expose the frauds. It will take these efforts by private individuals to not let the disinformation get told without refutation.

Just like Jawa that goes after jihadist websites using US servers or the housewife and mother that uncovers the jihadist plans from her home computer. These duties and obligations are not ones that Americans should leave to our government, we have to shoulder these tasks for ourselves because our freedoms depend on us, not our government.

Aug 14, 2008 - 4:56 pm 57. Dan:

Lieberman and Graham are headed to Georgia, at McCain’s behest.

I wonder what is in the works here?

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/08/13/mccain-to-send-his-wingmen-to-georgia/

Aug 14, 2008 - 4:59 pm 58. Doug:

Mouse:
What “self effacing, self loathing, unhealthy, polluters that our schools have indoctrinated.“?
—
POLL: 47% Favor Fairness Doctrine for Radio, TV; 31% for Bloggers…

Aug 14, 2008 - 5:01 pm 59. OCBill:

Have to wonder if Putin’s thinking went something like this:

Invade Georgia and accomplish the following:
1. become a hometown hero in Russia.
2. bring ought-to-be Russian areas back into Russia
3. scare Poland into dropping missile defense deal
4. scare Ukraine into dropping NATO membership bid
5. scare Georgia into dropping NATO membership bid
6. force Belarus to get firmly in line.

Hey, what could go wrong?

Aug 14, 2008 - 5:08 pm 60. Lifeofthemind:

OCBill,
Putin thinks he is a genius because the people he hired told him he is. I expect him to exit the stage through a window.
Here for everyone’s pleasure is what statecraft should look like, particularly like the definition of “Winning” at 2:55 – 3:25 in the second.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M5TsbpOQtSA
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CxZdTLa4CWA&feature=related

Aug 14, 2008 - 5:16 pm 61. cjm:

in a serious war situation, we would blow every comms cable connecting russia to the outside world.

Aug 14, 2008 - 5:21 pm 62. Doug:

Deuce posted this:
RUSSIAN “TANDEMOCRACY” STUMBLES INTO A WAR
Eurasia Daily Monitor

Aug 14, 2008 - 5:23 pm 63. JBean:

RAH:

These duties and obligations are not ones that Americans should leave to our government, we have to shoulder these tasks for ourselves because our freedoms depend on us, not our government.

Amen. But it’s a lonely battle, most times, when you’re competing against the likes of Paris Hilton, et al.
 

Aug 14, 2008 - 5:23 pm 64. cyc:

Is it possible that Bush duped Putin into misunderestimating him on Georgia? With the snap announcements of Germany recalculating the NAOT invite, and Poland accepting the anti-missile system, it almost seems that Bush had his own preparations in hand, and may have suckered Putin into one step too much. Bush even found an opportunity to pat Sarkozy on the head by sending Rice directly to France (not Germany or London) (BTW, did London fall off the map a few weeks ago? I haven’t heard a peep? Is Brown hiding under his cabinet table at No.10?)

Anyway, my son, no ready Bush supporter, nevertheless thinks Bush is a genius – a master of an ongoing farce that always ends in a deus ex machine with Bush back on top.

Could Bush really be the political Colombo of our time? I just don’t have enough evidence on either side of the issue. Would love to hear your thoughts on the question.

Aug 14, 2008 - 5:23 pm 65. buddy larsen:

I can’t stop wondering how Russia would be had we had good hands managing that crucial decade leading up to the ascension of Putin.

@Rah 4:56 –superb post!

Aug 14, 2008 - 5:28 pm 66. Martin:

“But the second is to suppress original material and salient facts.”
The Russians were helped in this by the fact that the post-Soviet area of the world is largely unknown to the MSM today. They do not cover it, so they don’t know the context. They are not aware of preceding developments, they don’t think through the implications. They don’t even know what questions to ask and whom. Some examples:

It took NYT three or four days to finally do a piece on the US diplomacy in the run-up to the war, although the question ‘What did Condi say to Sakashvili when she was there just one month ago?’ should have been on everyone’s minds, regardless of their sympathies.

The Russian peacekeepers, which they of course aren’t. Even calling them that entails accepting the Russian narrative.

After meeting with the Russians Sarkozy declared that Moscow has a right to protect the Russians living beyond its borders, a remark that was picked up by most Eastern European papers and went unnoticed in Western papers. Neither their editors, nor their readers, nor Sarkozy are aware what this idea means for Russia’s neighbors. Or, for that matter, for Hungary’s neighbors. (Sarko would be surprised if Algeria and Tunisia picked up on it and demanded the sovereignty for the French banlieus).

All this context is largely unknown to most editors. Their context is Iraq. So when the Russian trolls come, they have an easier job talking to people dependent on news sources for whom the Russian-Georgian quarrel history started on August 9.

Aug 14, 2008 - 5:31 pm 67. Konyok:

Nahncee,

You’re spot on with the “Mouse that Roared” comment.

Aug 14, 2008 - 5:35 pm 68. Doug:

“I can’t stop wondering how Russia would be had we had good hands managing that crucial decade leading up to the ascension of Putin.”
—
The One Chance Capitalism had to be displayed in all it’s splendor, shepherded to s… under Bubba and the WTO.

Aug 14, 2008 - 5:37 pm 69. Voltimand:

For what it is worth, here is an exchange I had on PowerLine with a suspect entrant:

Voltimand

Posted: 12 August 2008 06:35 PM

12 August 2008 06:13 PM

[Previous comment:]

I’m afraid Russia may well have succeeded in demonstrating not only to Georgia but to Azerbaijain and other countries in the region that they have no effective defense against Russian military power.

[Suspect comment on previous comment:]

And you afraid of it why? It is the reality. It is in fact very good when players understand rules of the game.
Otherwise they tend to do stupid things…… like use GRAD system of cities and killing hundreds of civilians…. [sic]

[My comment:]

The correct English/American locution is “And you ARE afraid of it why?” and also “understand THE rules of the game.” So now with some indication of what part of the globe you’re sending from, along of course with the sense and sentiment of the statement in mind, I reply.

The “rules of game” in this latest Russian move is that force is king if there is no counterforce. When the USSR fell it was because America had threatened it for years with nuclear retaliation if it made a move to take over Western Europe. That, plus the inherent self-destructiveness of communist government did the job.

Does the U.S. now have the capability of a counterforce? Of course. Will it use it at the present moment? I doubt it and so does Putin. What will happen afterwards when Russia tries to continue to act on the world stage as if nothing had happened may be another matter altogether. People who “know the rules of the game” consequently know where destruction of the homeland is at risk. It’s not at risk for the U.S. in Georgia. Not yet, but maybe in the future. If of course Russia continues to play by “the rules of the game.”

In the long run, a very stupid move. But then communism was a stupid move to begin with.

Aug 14, 2008 - 5:39 pm 70. buddy larsen:

cyc, i dunno, but it is rather good fortune that the financial crisis resulting from unsustainable rates of global growth –being in my mind an inescapable resetting of a system that has to be let run wild due to restraints having far too large an opportunity cost –will, judging by the August performance of the Dollar and the USA bank stock prices, by November have made it clear that a strong recovery is underway. An election in the bright light of a suddenly bouyant economy ain’t half bad for the (cough) incumbent party.

Aug 14, 2008 - 5:44 pm 71. cjm:

the new energy technology boom will be absolutely huge, dwarfing any other periods of wealth creation in human history. and at the end of it, oil will be just a lubricant and an input for making crappy toys.

Aug 14, 2008 - 5:49 pm 72. exhelodrvr:

“It took NYT three or four days to finally do a piece on the US diplomacy in the run-up to the war, although the question ‘What did Condi say to Sakashvili when she was there just one month ago?’ should have been on everyone’s minds, regardless of their sympathies.”

They are still blaming the U.S. for the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait; they were probably desperately seeking some way to do the same for Russia’a actions with Georgia.

Aug 14, 2008 - 5:55 pm 73. Konyok:

I think it’s a terribly significant question whether the Russian disinformation posters are agents of state security organs (SVU, GRU) or enthusiastic amateurs.

The old joke goes: “Soviet personal computers are the largest in the world!” Meaning that one of the contributing factors to their downfall was their dogmatic insistence on mainframes. As the pace of innovation in the west picked up with the growing flexibility of personal computing, the Soviets found themselves falling further and further behind.

Soviet authorities were so paranoid about uncontrolled dissemination of information that even copier machines were considered sensitive assets to be carefully guarded. When the KGB coup happened, the public response was doubly miraculous given the tight controls on information flows.

So, if these are *volunteers,* digital Cossacks, then something fundamental has changed in Russia. The bees may still be singing the song of the hive, but they are developing individual voices. In the long run, I think this bodes ill for Putin’s authoritarian vision.

Aug 14, 2008 - 5:57 pm 74. TW:

IMHO it is not good form to bag on Russia + her people. Putin’s regime is the main problem. The West will need to coexist long after he is gone. Best not to sew the seeds of alienation among those who will ultimately rule a proud and formidable nation. Thank you for the forum to express opinion.

Aug 14, 2008 - 6:00 pm 75. sirius_sir:

After meeting with the Russians Sarkozy declared that Moscow has a right to protect the Russians living beyond its borders

Can’t wait to see what happens in the event this meme catches on with the Germans.

Aug 14, 2008 - 6:03 pm 76. Dan:

Aug 14, 2008 – 6:00 pm

Dang. Talk about timing!

Welcome, FRIEND.

Aug 14, 2008 - 6:03 pm 77. TW:

It is a privilege to be here.

Aug 14, 2008 - 6:08 pm 78. Teresita:

I’m afraid Russia may well have succeeded in demonstrating not only to Georgia but to Azerbaijain and other countries in the region that they have no effective defense against Russian military power.

An analogy: The tiny Caribbean island of Barbuda, population 1,500, has no effective defense against American military power. We could send three carrier battle groups and six squadrons of amphibious landing craft, and within three days we could say “Mission Accomplished”. And the world would laugh that we essentially used a sledgehammer to bash a baby’s head in. There’s no glory in that, and when Boeing suddenly faced a slew of canceled airplane orders from a pissed-off world, we’d have to think about how the benefits of occupying Barbuda stacked up against the liabilities.

South Ossetia has 70,000 people. That’s how many people attend a county fair in America on a slow day, and they make a living by smuggling or getting handouts from Moscow. Now Russia faces a whole array of diplomatic pain and partners who suddenly wish to pull out of any number of joint ventures. Yes, they can roll to victory in any number of little pissant satrapies throughout Central Asia, but they face the law of diminishing returns. And there’s no way they can sit astride a pipeline outside of their borders and call that “peacekeeping”. In fact, they invite legitimate peacekeepers with a global mandate by such an action.

Aug 14, 2008 - 6:09 pm 79. cedarford:

Sigintel – Where there are comments allowed, I was overwhelmed by the number of pro-Russian comments and as we’ve seen here at BC, the psyops poster is sometimes nuanced and hard to detect. An American Cyber Army operated somewhat like the Civil Air Patrol,that could be called on to fight a cyberwar, might be something that the youth of America could get behind?

1. Wrong on “soviet agents” being the ones questioning the wisdom of nutty neocon worshippers saying we “owed” it to the “noble freedom-lovers” of Georgia to start WWIII on their behalf.
I think the term you overlooked was “sane Americans” who see no compulsion to go to war for Georgia after a reckless attack they launched on S Ossetia.

2. But you are dead right on the need to have the US get serious about cyber war, China espionage and the US setting up a volunteer civilian corps, aided by considerable US funding (Want free broadband? Sign up for US Cybercorps!).

And, with ChiCom, Russian, Israeli, and French infiltration of agencies, think tanks and companies with vital commercial and defense secrets being stolen? Eliminate certain “diversity” federal contract criteria and instead factor in how much each entity is doing to secure itself against foreign attack.

Aug 14, 2008 - 6:12 pm 80. buddy larsen:

TW, yes, time is long and people are short. Putin is especially short, tho he may live long. But forget silly joke, yes, down with tyranny, and let the peoples be free. Westerners are angry right now and saying many things about Russia and Russians, but nine times out of ten what they mean is Putin and Putin, and Putin.

Aug 14, 2008 - 6:16 pm 81. buddy larsen:

Gorby just finished, at CNN — he did a fine conciliatory but of course Rus-centric job. If you hurry, after the ads comes new (Gorby was a replay) interview with Shalikashvili –maybe we can learn something about that fateful D day or whatever it was.

Aug 14, 2008 - 6:22 pm 82. TW:

Yes Buddy, I tend to agree with you; those on the receiving end may not understand that distinction.

Aug 14, 2008 - 6:22 pm 83. Insufficiently Sensitive:

Doug 4:04

Have the Muzzies been better students than the Ruskies?

In Britain and the US they have made great strides, and are adept at using the legal system as leverage. Whether they’re better than the Russians, I couldn’t say.

Interesting question: Muslims are demographically overwhelming the southern parts of the Russian entity. How might they exploit the Russian legal system to mimic their progress in the Anglo-West, or could they even do so? The Russian legal system harks back to Lenin’s ‘revolutionary legality’ which grew from the barrels of the guns of the Cheka, and had damn little to do with a system of impartial law.

Aug 14, 2008 - 6:23 pm 84. jaymaster:

Konyok is on to something important here (even if he might be a Russian plant;))

Even if these propaganda spammers are directed by, or just prodded by the state, they still have SOME control over the comments they make. Otherwise, if it’s all just automated or cut and paste canned verbiage, we’ll spot it in an instant.

I’d wager that most of them have a better understanding than their bosses do of IP routing, anonymizing, hacking, etc. We all know these guys are good at that!

So what’s to stop them from sneaking in a true heart felt feeling every now and again? To question the wisdom of their leaders. To vent some frustration about the life they are forced to live.

So let’s not shut them out completely.

Aug 14, 2008 - 6:23 pm 85. NahnCee:

IMHO it is not good form to bag on Russia + her people.

Bullshit. I was just wondering if Pravda is reduced to whining about America making fun of Russia yet, like France did when it demanded that the State Department make us stop with the white flag jokes. I fully intend to make as much fun of (if that is what “bag on” means) Russia as is possible, and heartily encourage Leno, Letterman et al., to jump on the band wagon, too.

(We can, however, continue to make fun of the French when the occasion arises just to keep in practice.)

You get the leadership you deserve and work for. We have been being told that the Russian people were just bursting with national pride over Putin’s little stunt so they *really* need to be informed sternly and repeatedly what a stupid idea it was and how stupid they are to have supported him and it.

But then, getting back to the thread, do the Russian people realize yet what sort of QUAGMIRE Putin has led them into?

Aug 14, 2008 - 6:24 pm 86. buddy larsen:

Putin, Putin, and that human eel, Lavrov.

Aug 14, 2008 - 6:27 pm 87. mark_b:

Cedarford:

I agree completely. The “soviet agents” pale in comparison to the “sane Americans” when it comes to criticizing the nutty neocons.

It is like reading the log file of an outsourced help desk. Best part is that we have got the real thing right here.

Aug 14, 2008 - 6:27 pm 88. TW:

“Bag on” – to insult.

Aug 14, 2008 - 6:29 pm 89. buddy larsen:

yeh –the kids here in Texas use ”bag on” too. Shalikashvili kept holding up papers, reports from Human Rights Watch concerning what is happening in Georgia this day. I wish he would scan those papers to the net.

Aug 14, 2008 - 6:33 pm 90. Doug:

Sensitive,
Seems to me Muzzies have been far more effective with our Legal/ACLU/MSM/Political/Institutional Enabling System than anyone, powered by unlimited funds.

Going against the Russian Legal System,
I think not so much!

Aug 14, 2008 - 6:40 pm 91. jaymaster:

NahnCee,

I’ve always assumed you are female, based mostly on your name.

If not, I’m sorry.

But if that is the case, then you have a good excuse for not understanding the term “bag on’ right away….

Aug 14, 2008 - 6:44 pm 92. buddy larsen:

TW, right, it is a distinction hard to make under the conditions. Shalikashvili just said there are still 1,200 Rus tanks inside Georgia. That is a problem, too. Not the same as blog reader’s feelings, but still, a problem.

Aug 14, 2008 - 6:44 pm 93. Konyok:

I’m just a corndog loving dipstick in the heartland, jaymaster. (Great with Georgian wine!)
But, I have travelled in the FSU and have a complicated mixture of sympathy and disdain for the Russian people. They are not cartoon characters.

Nahncee’s right that they need to hear how pissed we are at Putin. But, a lot of this “they’re-all-evil” rhetoric just reinforces the propaganda of the Russian media. They really do fear that all foreigners are members of a great cosmic lynch mob out to get them.

Aug 14, 2008 - 6:45 pm 94. mark_b:

The Russian problem is that they can’t let their hackers read too much of this blog stuff or they might start thinking for themselves.

They have already made the first step, Linux. The GNU manifesto. Thank you Richard Stallman. The code wants to be free. Code is an expression of an idea, like math and chess are expressions of ideas. Ideas want to be free.

Aug 14, 2008 - 6:54 pm 95. Doug:

I think allowing Soviet Traffic gives Larsen too many softballs for his finely honed humor, causing him to lose his edge.

Aug 14, 2008 - 6:56 pm 96. Teresita:

C4: But you are dead right on the need to have the US get serious about cyber war

The solution has been evolving since 1999, for the seemingly decadent purpose of sharing music and movies. It’s called peer-to-peer, and it can return the Internet to its original purpose (back when Al Gore invented ARPANET) as a decentralized command and control network invulnerable to attack. Home computers are so powerful nowadays they far exceed the capabilities of the mainframe computers of the 1970s. Each PC can be a node, rather than the big iron in a few universities, and P2P, plus public-key cryptography, allows the network to survive any attack, be it from the music labels, Chinese censors, or Russian propagandists.

Aug 14, 2008 - 7:02 pm 97. DrJ:

The code wants to be free.. Ideas want to be free.

I’m sorry, but I’ve heard this pablum for years. Simply, it is nonsense. Ideas have no desires, so they cannot desire freedom. And computer code is a work product, and not an idea. You can put it under any license you want, or patent parts if you wish. Personally, I prefer the BSD license, but that is neither here nor there.

Aug 14, 2008 - 7:04 pm 98. fred:

“sirius_sir:

Germany has encouraged Georgia to apply for NATO membership. Germany.

The Germans woke up to the possibility that the Russkies might want half of their country back too.”

And a very large minority of the German population, particularly in the East, would not mind going back over to Russia. I think Eastern Europe is alarmed, but the comments I see from many Western Europeans on a couple of other weblogs I go to seem in favor of the Russian view of events. And that’s disturbing. We even have elements over here who, for varying agendas, favor or excuse the Russian aggression. The perversity of humanity never fails to amaze.

Aug 14, 2008 - 7:05 pm 99. buddy larsen:

ha –Doug, i’m legitimately attempting to engage. i was going to say, when two tribes face each other across a river, maybe the real hatred for the other guys comes from the other guys being the guys from across the river.

Aug 14, 2008 - 7:07 pm 100. Doug:

Pootie Pinup

Aug 14, 2008 - 7:08 pm 101. fred:

“Nahncee’s right that they need to hear how pissed we are at Putin. But, a lot of this “they’re-all-evil” rhetoric just reinforces the propaganda of the Russian media. They really do fear that all foreigners are members of a great cosmic lynch mob out to get them.”

If we have such an unfavorable view of them and their culture, it not for lack of good reasons. Consistently they have shown a spinelessness in the face of evil and they willingly collaborate with it. Russian collaboration with evil forces rivals the French collaboration with the Nazis in WWII.

Whenever an individual Russian stands up and is counted among our friends and supports our values, we do take note. We don’t dismiss it.

It’s just that there are so few of them.

So, they drown their hopelessness in vodka and drugs. I just have a hard time summoning compassion for Russia and Russians.

Aug 14, 2008 - 7:11 pm 102. jaymaster:

Konyok, is that Georgian peach wine?

Anyway, I’m an engineer/business type guy, and I have been dealing with some Russian customers lately. And I love them.

The point I was trying to make is that we now have the means to talk, mano y mano, with our Russian counterparts. No need to send our thoughts up through a Senator, to Bush, to the UN, etc, who sends it to Putin, and then back on down on the other side.

And no need for the NYT to send a message to Pravda either.

We can “talk” one on one now, person to person. With no interpreters or filters to get in the way. So let’s do all we can to keep this line of communication open.

We now know that some intelligent Russians are reading what we write here. And some are talking back.

And these are, probably, the kind of people we need to talk with.

Key nodes can cut both ways.

Aug 14, 2008 - 7:12 pm 103. Doug:

Kremlin dusts off Cold War lexicon to make US villain in Georgia

Russians were told over breakfast yesterday what really happened in Georgia: the conflict in South Ossetia was part of a plot by Dick Cheney, the Vice-President, to stop Barak Obama being elected president of the United States.

Aug 14, 2008 - 7:13 pm 104. sirius_sir:

A different kind of ghost in the machine:

http://blog.wired.com/defense/2008/08/will-new-laser.html

Plausible deniability… hmmm

“Eemergency, eemergency. Everybody to geet from street.”

Aug 14, 2008 - 7:16 pm 105. sirius_sir:

Whenever an individual Russian stands up and is counted… we do take note. We don’t dismiss it.

And so we should note the passing of Solzhenitsyn. Especially since the Russians took such pains to commemmorate the event.

Aug 14, 2008 - 7:26 pm 106. Konyok:

jaymaster,

They say that Georgia is the birthplace of wine. They’ve got a a bunch of unique varietals that are truly amazing. Wine is the little country’s main source of hard currency. When Volodya Putin started putting on the pressure after the Rose Revolution he banned the import of Georgian wines. So, I buy it at the local liquor emporium. They also make terrific brandy.

Aug 14, 2008 - 7:27 pm 107. buddy larsen:

My middle daughter’s boyfriend is Rus/Ukrainian (one one side and the other), came to USA at 10 with ma, pa & sis. They had little. They all learned English, and are prospering nicely. I think they’re great –lots of fun, great senses of humor, very generous and open. The kid is a statistician, just accepted into doctoral program, and sometimes lets me win at chess and/or one-on-one basketball. He never quits smiling, and is always up for a laugh –a real delight. And he cheers up my melancholy-Dane daughter. well, that’s my Russian story.

Aug 14, 2008 - 7:31 pm 108. JohnR:

Wretched wrote: They could create cities of glass, maglev rail networks, monuments to art, cities on Mars. If they could get the Putins, Stalins, Yagodas, Yezovs, Berias out of the way.

Ah, but the Russians love their strong men, its as much a part of their character as Vodka. You will not in our lives separate the Russian and his leader. How many pine for Stalin, and see some of him in Putin?

Aug 14, 2008 - 7:33 pm 109. Konyok:

fred,

We’ve got plenty of good reason to have unfavorable feelings about Russians and their culture – a buttload of pop culture stereotypes. It used to be communist fanatics, now it’s violent Russian mafia.

And vice versa.

I remember one time visiting Ukraine and watching “American Pie” dubbed into Russian during prime time on TV. I was enraged that THIS was the image that they had of us. I paid more attention after that and my anger and sense of unease just grew as I saw the kind of trash that passes for American culture. (Ditto all of the above for the muslim world. They hate us because of Madonna’s cone brassiere … )

Aug 14, 2008 - 7:38 pm 110. jaymaster:

One more thing,

If any Russians want to talk about what the West has to offer, you can contact me off line. If you’re good, you’ll know how. Or we can talk here, I’m sure.

I’m what we call a libertarian here in the US. And I’m honest.

And I can sponsor a couple immigrants a year! Experience in electromagnetics is pretty much required, though.

Aug 14, 2008 - 7:38 pm 111. buddy larsen:

well, this 24 yr old russian kid, for one. We argue a lot about Stalin. He refuses to hate Stalin. He says I do not and will not ever understand, and that I am lucky for that.

Aug 14, 2008 - 7:38 pm 112. sirius_sir:

buddy larsen, I look into the guileless faces of those young Russians riding through Georgia and it makes me doubly angry–but not at them.

Aug 14, 2008 - 7:44 pm 113. Konyok:

buddy,

That kid doesn’t know Stalin. For this younger generation he is merely a figure of ironic fun, an icon without context. He may have heard stories from his parents, but they are not only old, and therefore terminally unhip, but they have all of the old country baggage and try to deccelerate his Americanization.

Stalin is *transgressive,* Stalin is cool.

Aug 14, 2008 - 7:45 pm 114. fred:

Buddy,

What is it with them that there is this tremendous denial of what a monster Stalin was? I too have met delightful Russians, but I tend to think that the environment over here loosens them up and encourages a more benign view of life. But, over there…

Look, when the Poles hate them, the Ukrainians hate them, the Baltic republic peoples hate them, the Caucasus peoples hate them (except the criminal Ossetians), what are we to make of that? Also, next to the French they are the world’s least popular tourists. There has to be something to it. Now, being more obnoxious than the French, that takes some doin’ (for the record, I am of French ancestry, by way of Quebec, a few generations back).

Aug 14, 2008 - 7:49 pm 115. sirius_sir:

buddy, speaking of Solzhenitsyn and re that kid’s opinion of Stalin… just an idea

Aug 14, 2008 - 7:52 pm 116. buddy larsen:

yep — it’s weird –the millions he deliberately starved in Ukraine, you’d think there’d be hissing hatred. It’s almost like Stalin is weather, or topography. Yep –me too, sirius –same reaction. Russian soldier, happy-go-lucky kid. Disconnect. makes head hurt.

Aug 14, 2008 - 7:53 pm 117. fred:

We have been continually telling the Russian bloggers that we KNOW that Georgian forces went into Ossetia. No one denies that or even tries to. It’s just that there is more to the story than that simple plot, and we’ve been on top of that. Not even our clownish Left and Buchanan Right are going to get away with slip sliding away from the fuller details and context. There is an intense history of Ossetian paramilitaries and Spetznaz agents going into Georgia proper to conduct raids and terrorism, with the purpose of trying to get the pretext for the 58th armor to jump on it.

It’s as if they are tone deaf. They really have no clue as to how free-flowing our environment is and how it has access to information they cannot obtain over there. They have no clue as to how open our society is and how much freedom we have. It has not changed much over there since the Communist regime. Yes, there’s more wealth and more money making, but things are still pretty much locked down as they were before.

Aug 14, 2008 - 7:56 pm 118. buddy larsen:

I dunno Fred –you make an awful good point. It’s really the nub of the whole world problem –the disorganizing principle.

Aug 14, 2008 - 7:57 pm 119. Teresita:

Doug: Russians were told over breakfast yesterday what really happened in Georgia: the conflict in South Ossetia was part of a plot by Dick Cheney, the Vice-President, to stop Barak Obama being elected president of the United States.

Let me guess, every time you click a link in Russia you get steered to Daily Kos now.

Aug 14, 2008 - 7:59 pm 120. Konyok:

fred,

I do have to agree with you about that. Russians with a little money can be the dictionary definition of obnoxious.

One curious thing that I’ve noticed. Russians have a pet name for us Americans – pup zemlii. It means “navel of the world.” They scorn/laugh that we think everything is always all about us. (Our fixation with health food is an especial source of hilarity.)
The funny thing is that they are exactly the same damned way. I’d say even more so, hence your obnoxious tourists.

Aug 14, 2008 - 7:59 pm 121. Doug:

“No one denies that or even tries to. ”
—
Anyone know what those rockets were targeting?

Aug 14, 2008 - 8:00 pm 122. Alexis:

One of the advantages of getting spied on is that one can feed the information to one’s opponent that one wants him to see. As a rule, one never gets targeted with propaganda unless one also gets spied on, so it can be safely assumed that any place with an army of Russian commenters also has a potential audience for carefully calibrated information.

For example, I am struck by how many Russians fail to see the pitfalls of using Kosovo as a precedent for Russian behavior, for doing so essentially abandons Kosovo to Albanians. This is not a minor issue, given how Serbia has become an economic colony of Russia, complete with Gazprom controlling the local oil & gas company. Any Russian betrayal of Serbia will be watched closely by all of Russia’s neighbors, allies, clients — and enemies. The use of the Kosovo precedent, more than the invasion of Georgia itself, undermines future Russian diplomacy.

Russia has the potential to be a great nation. And yet, I am confused about why Russia hasn’t built a Trans-Siberian pipeline (along the same right-of-way as the Trans-Siberian Railway) all the way to Vladivostok. This would bring Russian (and central Asian) petroleum to the Japanese, Korean, and coastal Chinese markets. I am confused why Russia won’t welcome refugees from North Korea, complete with offering them Russian citizenship on condition of learning Russian and converting to the Russian Orthodox Church. North Koreans who escape to Russia and become Russian citizens would likely become strong and firm Russian patriots; why would Russia fail to seize this opportunity? Russia needs to repair the damage that Georgian monster called Stalin did to Russian agriculture. Why can’t Russians learn the best agricultural methods and promote a new “kulak” class even if the expertise of these kulaks must be imported?

There are many things Russia can do in the short term and the long term to become something more than a nostalgic petroleum monarchy with nuclear weapons. Although Russia is capable of cutting off a trans-Caucasus pipeline with the potential of bringing Caspian Sea nations into the orbit of Europe, it is nonsensical to imagine how Russia would gain true greatness on the basis of a stale nostalgic militarism that glorifies power, procreation, and Vladimir Putin. A great nation does not let its roads fall apart. Russia could build a mag-lev train network that would bring a traveler from Saint Petersburg to Tashkent, Vladivostok or the Bering Strait within one day. Will Russia? That is another question.

Aug 14, 2008 - 8:05 pm 123. Konyok:

I had a memorable flight from Kyiv to Amsterdam seated next to a Chinese resident of Britain with a Yorkshire accent thick enough to cut. Somehow the conversation turned to Taiwan.
The transformation was breathtaking, what had been a charming and cosmopolitan citizen of the world turned into mindless robot in a millisecond.
Of course, we are so close to ourselves that we don’t even see when it happens to us. But, we most assuredly all have that blind spot when we regurgitate our programming, thinking all along that we are being most reasonable.

Aug 14, 2008 - 8:06 pm 124. Lifeofthemind:

Very strange, a perfectly innocuos comment made @ 5:16 has an “awaiting moderation” tag on it. Never saw that before. Can anyone else see it?

Aug 14, 2008 - 8:06 pm 125. JB:

I lived in Russia until my pre-teen years and generally share the more gloomy prognosis of the Russian people as a collective entity (as opposed to the wonderful, brave isolated cases.)

The totalitarian impulse is simply too deeply imbedded in the Russian soul. To generalize a bit, they think Western values of freedom and civil rights (among others) are naive and idiotic. Hence you get the Putins. The problem isn’t Putin; he’s the symptom of a problem. They simply haven’t been able to find a way out of their historical hole.

The Stalin-love is typical and unsurprising. Of course, the kid just doesn’t know any better (and I suspect, academic elitism might be a big component of such thinking) but it illustrates the dilemma: Russia swings between the strongman and the drunkard/incompetent, neither to its ultimate benefit.

Needless to say, Russia is still paying for a huge chunk of its talent pool (and their potential progeny) lost to the Gulag. We’re seeing that today with their degraded condition. And in the more “relaxed” times corruption becomes a way of life, as under Brezhnev. This was apparent to me virtually from grade school.

Talk about a vicious cycle. I truly feel it’s a God-forsaken place.

Aug 14, 2008 - 8:06 pm 126. buddy larsen:

Russians I’m certain are furious at the Poles for the missile deal today. But the Poles fear them. Why? Well, we all know why. just one thing alone will never go away–Katyn forest. What was NKVD thinking when it murdered 7 or 10 thousand Polish officers & some families in Katyn Forest? It was during the two years Stalin & Hitler were allies. Hitler had handed off eastern Poland –the Polish office corps wasn’t even at war with the Red Army. But just in case something might happen in the future, i guess was Stalin’s worry, let’s shoot them all in the back of the neck, and bury them in that deep forest near Smolensk, and never say a word. Erase them from history. Almost worked, too. But today the ghosts spoke, and the papers were signed.

Aug 14, 2008 - 8:07 pm 127. Dave:

sirius_sir: Don’t forget to set your Phaser to “stun”.

That laser on a C130 reminds me: At Edwards a few years ago, they were experimenting with something similar in a 747 fuselage. Part of missle defense. Wonder how that is coming along.

Aug 14, 2008 - 8:07 pm 128. sirius_sir:

He says I do not and will not ever understand, and that I am lucky for that.

buddy, it is a riddle wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma… hell, even Mandelstahm wrote an “Ode to Stalin”.

Aug 14, 2008 - 8:08 pm 129. DB:

The US/Poland deal was about more than Star War missiles:

US, Poland agree to anti-missile defense deal
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/08/14/AR2...

Poland and the United States struck a deal Thursday that will strengthen military ties and put an American missile interceptor base in Poland….

In an interview on news channel TVN24, Tusk said the United States agreed to help augment Poland’s defenses with Patriot missiles in exchange for placing 10 missile defense interceptors in the eastern European country.

He said the deal also includes a “mutual commitment” between the two nations to come to each other’s assistance “in case of trouble.”

Talking about the “mutual commitment” part of the agreement, Tusk said that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization would be too slow in coming to Poland’s defense if threatened and that the bloc would take “days, weeks to start that machinery.”

“Poland and the Poles do not want to be in alliances in which assistance comes at some point later _ it is no good when assistance comes to dead people. Poland wants to be in alliances where assistance comes in the very first hours of _ knock on wood _ any possible conflict,” Tusk said.

Aug 14, 2008 - 8:09 pm 130. LDG:

Please forgive the roll-forward of a comment from the “choose” thread, but regarding:

***
DanM:

Georgian “irregulars” firing on reporters.

Aug 14, 2008 – 11:31 am
***

The clarification for this is in Mal James’s ‘blog on the event at FOXNews.
the shooter was an Ossetian Irregular

Thanks. now back to our regularly scheduled programming…

Aug 14, 2008 - 8:11 pm 131. Lifeofthemind:

Poles have good reason to fear the Russians. Then again they did get some revenge. Felix Dzerzhinsky, who founded Lenin’s Cheka that became Putin’s KGB, was Polish. Somewhat like the Native Americans being able to take solace in the knowledge that they gave the Europeans syphilis.

Aug 14, 2008 - 8:16 pm 132. Teresita:

He said the deal also includes a “mutual commitment” between the two nations to come to each other’s assistance “in case of trouble.”

Way to go Putie! Next is Ukraine. Hope the little Caucasus wart called “South Ossetia” was worth it.

Russia swings between the strongman and the drunkard/incompetent, neither to its ultimate benefit.

Medvedev got 71% of the vote. Which is the same thing as saying Putin got 71% of the vote. So the Russian people get the a-hole they deserve.

In semi-related news:

30% of Americans want “balanced” blogging

(80% percent of THOSE respondents didn’t know what a blog was, but it better be balanced, that’s all they can say.)

Aug 14, 2008 - 8:17 pm 133. fred:

Since Germany is no longer on the front line, we should redeploy eastward. In fact, Germany has been pretty much useless as an ally, and what little they have done for us they have to do it in secret because the Germans are probably even more rabidly anti-American than the French are. I think we should arm and strengthen the countries in the East we judge as having the most resolve and ability to hold back the Russians when Russia turns on them.

I don’t think Putin is finished. This is one of his opening moves. Our next move should be to pretty much lay waste to Iran’s nuclear weapons programs, aircraft defenses, navy, leadership, and Revolutionary Guards. Doing Iran would be a severe blow to Russia, because right now Iran is Russia’s crown jewel client.

Aug 14, 2008 - 8:19 pm 134. cjm:

is a good russian like a good nazi? why not? oh i see; because.

if you understand human nature then you will know why russia will always resent the u.s. and try to undermine us. make excuses for them, but it is other people who will pay the price for your misplaced compassion. only willful ignorance explains all the “understanding” for the “plight” of the “poor poor” russians.

when will they build their citties of glass, the year 3000? if they were going to do it they would have done it by now. if the muslims are living in the 7th century, the russians are living in the 11th century. so they have that going for them.

Aug 14, 2008 - 8:24 pm 135. sigintel:

Listening to CNN, which I rarely do but because they have “boots on the ground” in Georgia uplinking live… the new meme or spin from them is that the US is really to blame as we led the poor Georgians along by giving them aid and military advice and false hope about joining NATO. Joe Ivan thinks this is about Cheney stealing the US election from Obama, while Joe Six Pac thinks that it was GWB’s lack of leadership and that our invasion of Iraq gave the Russians moral parity to do the same to Georgia…sickening.

Aug 14, 2008 - 8:25 pm 136. sirius_sir:

Fred, I’m not so sure the French are “rabidly anti-American” any more than we Americans are rabidly anti-French. Sure, we have our little disagreements, but overall the relationship is amiable if not perpetually cozy.

And post-Chirac, the trend seems definitely on the mend.

Aug 14, 2008 - 8:28 pm 137. Lifeofthemind:

Hello? Can anyone see my 5:16 post? Should I repost or would that get me in trouble with the powers that be? Odd that is the only post that has an”awaiting moderation” line on it.

Chirac was particularly vile but generally I think that Americans and Europeans treat each other like family. What is your family like?

Aug 14, 2008 - 8:34 pm 138. sirius_sir:

sigintel, you can’t see the moral parity? We deposed a terrorist-supporting, mass-murdering tyrant while the Russians are attempting to decapitate democracy in the Caucases.

Exactly the same thing. I’m appalled at your obtuseness.

Aug 14, 2008 - 8:34 pm 139. mark_b:

DrJ:

“And computer code is a work product, and not an idea.”

I’ll admit the Gnu Manifesto and Stallman part are pablum, but a program is just an algorithm, (He invented that too?)in other words a mathematical model for solving a problem.

So a program is an idea in the same manner that the fundamental theorem of calculus is an idea.

The structure of Unix and the internet both allow you to place trust the work of others because their work product and ideas are open to inspection.

The very fact that the Russian hacker must read and question what we write causes his employer the most danger.

What made me think of this was a ’s/neocon/jew/ response I made yesterday. I received an angry reply within ten minutes of my post. (And I do think an “idea” was transmitted by that code snippet!)

If it wasn’t for BC, I’d get all my news from /.

Some of the ideas presented here are gently worked back into conversations there.

I am quite out of my element here. I am used to being the best, the brightest and the first one done. I cannot even keep up with your conversations. I am constantly amazed by the quality of the information posted here , and I thank you all for putting up with the “childishness” of my comments.

Thank you Mr. Fernandez for a fine forum.

Aug 14, 2008 - 8:35 pm 140. sigintel:

http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/08/everyones-a-cri.html

More of the same tripe coming from the US left….wretchard said: “And since the Press jumps like a frog, from lily pad to lily pad of subject matter, (not through personal incompetence but because of the way the news model works) then it is a perfect subject for disinformation”. Turn-on your TV or go to the NYT, CNN, Time, the Economist et al and watch it happen in real time!

Aug 14, 2008 - 8:37 pm 141. Aether:

DB:

“He said the deal also includes a “mutual commitment” between the two nations to come to each other’s assistance “in case of trouble.””

“At the signing, Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski said the deal would strengthen the U.S., Poland and NATO.”

Does this strengthen NATO or, for the Eastern Euro’s in particular, move it towards irrelevance ?

Aug 14, 2008 - 8:46 pm 142. sigintel:

http://www.thenation.com/doc/20080818/scheer2

….lilly pad to lilly pad

Aug 14, 2008 - 8:46 pm 143. buddy larsen:

@lifeofmind –nothing on my screen @ 5:16 –you orta re-post.

@DB –that Polish desire for reaction with alacrity –it’s ‘’sitzkrieg” sensitivity –

Aug 14, 2008 - 8:48 pm 144. DanM:

Wretchard,

The key breakthrough will be political will and managerial focus.

This assumes a massive data-mining effort that gathers trends in information repositories. Who decides the data set and who decides the “interesting” trend?

There’s the rub, right?

Not until the Boomer elite pass-through the bowels can we expect a reasonable chance for this…

Aug 14, 2008 - 8:54 pm 145. DrJ:

a program is just an algorithm, (He invented that too?)in other words a mathematical model for solving a problem.

So a program is an idea in the same manner that the fundamental theorem of calculus is an idea.

The structure of Unix and the internet both allow you to place trust the work of others because their work product and ideas are open to inspection.

This is beyond parody, and I won’t belabor it for the regulars. Small examples are that Unix is proprietary and closed source (the only exception is Solaris, and that a very recent and minor exception), computer algorithms are rarely mathematical models, programs are still work products, and Stallman in no way invented algorithms.

I have heard nothing about “ideas want to be free.” Well, I have heard many ideas that are into S&M. Which ones do you believe?

If you don’t have at least bachelor’s degree, talk to me again when you do. If you do, well, ask for a refund for you education.

Aug 14, 2008 - 8:56 pm 146. buddy larsen:

September 1939 comes ’round, and Poles have a nice NATO-ish treaty with Britain & France. Then Hitler comes in, and that treaty of course sets off WWII. But somehow Poland stays flattened & forgotten until a half century later the stars align around a Polish priest and a shipyard fitter with a big mustache.

Aug 14, 2008 - 8:56 pm 147. Lifeofthemind:

buddy, Thank you, It rankles . A nothing post but hate being swallowed by a machine.

OCBill,
Putin thinks he is a genius because the people he hired told him he is. I expect him to exit the stage through a window.
Here for everyone’s pleasure is what statecraft should look like, particularly like the definition of “Winning” at 2:55 – 3:25 in the second.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M5TsbpOQtSA
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CxZdTLa4CWA&feature=related

Aug 14, 2008 - 8:57 pm 148. sigintel:

DanM: I’d say that “We” decide the data set and the interesting thread by remarking on it. Interesting how a meme gathers steam…

Aug 14, 2008 - 8:59 pm 149. Lifeofthemind:

And the “awaiting moderation” tag is back. Is it because I had a couple of youtube links? Pity they were clever bits from The Lion in Winter, Henry II practices Statecraft and defines “Winning.”

Aug 14, 2008 - 9:00 pm 150. mark_b:

Lifeofthemind:

“Hello? Can anyone see my 5:16 post? Should I repost or would that get me in trouble with the powers that be? Odd that is the only post that has an”awaiting moderation” line on it.”

The only way to free up the comment is to click the Tip Jar link and follow the instructions.

Well at least it worked for me yesterday. I think I may have changed my email address or cleared my cookies after my last successful post.

But I am pretty sure the Tip Jar link is what did it.

Aug 14, 2008 - 9:02 pm 151. Aether:

A thought just occurred to me… Which European nation is the United State’s best ally in “old” Europe today ?

I never thought I’d say that of all the god-forsaken nations in Europe, it’s France ! (God Bless em)

Which, of course, is not a member of NATO.

NATO is Dead.

Aug 14, 2008 - 9:02 pm 152. JB:

“when will they build their citties of glass, the year 3000? if they were going to do it they would have done it by now. ”

Well, the Russian way is more like building the world’s biggest glass bottle of vodka while their social/structural problems fester. If they set their mind to a heroic project like launching a man into space, they can do it.

But it’s still putting a bowtie on a turd.

Aug 14, 2008 - 9:04 pm 153. jwillie:

DrJ: computer code is a work product

So are legal documents, laws and constitutions.

mark_b: I am quite out of my element here.

Based on his comments about code, DrJ would be out of his element at /.

As someone who was in business first, but in the early 90’s migrated to the Internet technology business, I too struggled with that notion for awhile (that code wants to be free). It is a foreign concept to those whose business models and minds address only analog businesses, or are primarily financially focused. It actually took me longer to grasp that concept than to understand some of the physics concepts underlying computers and networks, which i attribute to the concept of “no free lunch” drilled into me by my business school finance professor and early career in LBO/private equity. Eventually, I reconciled the two, but it was somewhat of a struggle (and would have taken much longer without the Internet!).

Aug 14, 2008 - 9:05 pm 154. sirius_sir:

Just imagine if the press were to discover a major jail in Gori, occupied by the Russians, where hundreds of Georgians had been dragged in off the streets and tortured and abused? What if we discovered that the orders for this emanated from the Kremlin itself? –Andrew Sullivan

And just imagine if the press were to honestly compare Abu Ghraib with, say, the Lubyanka or remember the “Red Terror”–or that our so-called “Gulag” was nothing compared to the original.

You may say I’m a dreamer
But I’m not the only one
I hope someday you’ll join us
And the world will be as one

Aug 14, 2008 - 9:06 pm 155. Lifeofthemind:

Aether.
Sarkozy is bringing France back into Nato’s unified command structure. France never withdrew from Nato per se.

Aug 14, 2008 - 9:08 pm 156. sigintel:

Poland’s announcement today that they were going to “host” a US designed missile defense system sort of makes me think its really Poland and not France who’s our best ally from old Europe. NATO is not dead quite yet and may be reborn with the vigor of the old soviet block states wanting a defensive alliance against Putin’s Bear.

Aug 14, 2008 - 9:09 pm 157. bobal:

What I can’t get out of my mind about the Russians and Stalin is that speech he gave where everyone clapped and clapped, and no one wanted or dared be the first one to stop clapping, so they damned near clapped themselves to death, for fear of death.

Aug 14, 2008 - 9:09 pm 158. Doug:

J Willie:
Did you have any teenagers in the 90’s?

Aug 14, 2008 - 9:15 pm 159. Mark:

Konyak wrote:

“But, I have travelled in the FSU and have a complicated mixture of sympathy and disdain for the Russian people. They are not cartoon characters.”

First, most Americans don’t use “ll” to spell “traveler,” although it’s a valid spelling.

Second, Konyak must never have seen that great Simpson’s episode. “Great game! Let’s play another!”

Third, everyone take a deep breath, read some Dostoevsky, and think kinder thoughts about the Russians. They are indeed crazy, but they are smart and love their kids and flowers and arts. Some day we’ll see Putin and his ilk get the Caesescu treatment. That will be a small step forward.

Aug 14, 2008 - 9:18 pm 160. DrJ:

So are legal documents, laws and constitutions [work products].

Of course they are! Do these too have desires to be free?

DrJ would be out of his element at /.

You are right. I have no patience for script kiddies, very few of whom have had to meet a payroll and who ascribe computer code with human desires.

I too struggled with [the] notion that code wants to be free. It is a foreign concept to those whose business models … are primarily financially focused.

Every business model is “financially focused.” Let me guess, you are one of the many who hawked dogfood.com. I have heard so many of those business plans set forth by those who claimed that eyeballs are all that matter. The revenue model was of no importance. Those are all bankrupt now.

(Written from a computer running FreeBSD 6.3.)

Aug 14, 2008 - 9:20 pm 161. Lifeofthemind:

When I taught I gave the students a feeling for Stalinism by showing them the Tom Hulce movie “The Inner Circle.” Unfortunately it is not available on DVD. What really made the case against Communism for my students was when I told them that life in Eastern Europe was what it would be ifg everything was run like the Board of Ed. and that the East german Stasi had bugged Katerina Witte’s bed. Talk about adolescent nightmares!

Aug 14, 2008 - 9:22 pm 162. Aether:

SigIntel,

I count Poland as “new” Europe, and I do agree that they are a great ally for the United States… Brave to the core.

The Brits should take a lesson from them.

Aug 14, 2008 - 9:23 pm 163. vnjagvet:

One thing that keeps going in and out of my mind is that a KGB agent is running Russia. Are KGB agents any more competant as a general rule than CIA agents?

Reading Legacy of Ashes makes me wonder whether anyone with an intelligence background can run anything.

Aug 14, 2008 - 9:24 pm 164. sigintel:

Aether…here here for the Brits finding their “inner selves” jeeze I miss Tony Blair…he had balls and was also well spoken!

Aug 14, 2008 - 9:27 pm 165. DanM:

bobal,

I’ve been to some meetings where the sycophants do that by nodding their heads.. You swear they must have a masseuse in their offices to relieve the repetitive motion symptoms.

Interesting that you tie that to a Stalin speech… Thanks for the inappropriate smile that I’ll have on my face at the next meeting.

Aug 14, 2008 - 9:30 pm 166. bobal:

How To Fight The Russians In Georgia If One Was Inclined To Do So

Aug 14, 2008 - 9:33 pm 167. Doug:

“sigintel, you can’t see the moral parity?
We deposed a terrorist-supporting, mass-murdering tyrant while the Russians are attempting to decapitate democracy in the Caucases.
Exactly the same thing.
I’m appalled at your obtuseness.”
– An Obama Voter

Aug 14, 2008 - 9:33 pm 168. DanM:

Why, DrJ, you are a Capitalist snob! I like that in a comment thread.

Aug 14, 2008 - 9:38 pm 169. whiskey:

It is sadly true that the only men of ability and courage were in the KGB. Stalin killed the rest, and Brezhnev and the other oligarchs who followed did not permit men of ability to rise.

Unlike the West or China, Russia has no separate sphere of activities from the State. To it’s detriment.

Aug 14, 2008 - 9:38 pm 170. exhelodrvr:

“Just imagine if the press were to discover a major jail in Gori, occupied by the Russians, where hundreds of Georgians had been dragged in off the streets and tortured and abused? What if we discovered that the orders for this emanated from the Kremlin itself? –Andrew Sullivan”

Yeah – imagine. They would blame it on Pres Bush.

Aug 14, 2008 - 9:39 pm 171. Doug:

“In an interview on news channel TVN24, Tusk said the United States agreed to help augment Poland’s defenses with Patriot missiles in exchange for placing 10 missile defense interceptors in the eastern European country.”
—
What will any of this (entire thread) be worth w/a President Obama and a Democrat Congress?

Aug 14, 2008 - 9:43 pm 172. Aether:

Tony Blair ??? well… I suppose he’s a done a fair amount of good for Britain and the world…

but right now Britain could really use another man like Margaret Thatcher.

Aug 14, 2008 - 9:45 pm 173. bobal:

Nothing, and less than nothing.

Aug 14, 2008 - 9:47 pm 174. Bob Murphy:

The most damning thing I can think of in modern Russian history is that Stalin died of natural causes.
The place has gone from being Upper Volta with missiles to Upper Volta with oil wells in 20 years.

Aug 14, 2008 - 9:49 pm 175. DrJ:

Why, DrJ, you are a Capitalist snob! I like that in a comment thread.

That would be a capitalist *pig*, thank you very much. And yes, I resemble that remark.

Aug 14, 2008 - 9:53 pm 176. NahnCee:

I’ve been thinking about Wretchard and helodriver’s concept of putting together a civilian league of Western hackers to go after the Russians (and the Chinese, who need to be hacked down to size, too).

I still think the best way to do it would be to make it a game, a challenge, for top of the mountain hankerdom king. But I’m not sure what would appeal to a bunch of underground wanks who are probably all very very bright and very very immature. And maybe unmanageable. Like herding cats.

Therefore, it seems to me that Plan B would be to turn it into a contest, and a really successful contest is the Burt Rutan / XPrize contest for a civilian spaceship. Maybe hacker levels could be set up so if you could prove you’d brought down GazProm in Siberia you’d win $500,000, while you’d win $10,000 if you could steal all the data from the GUM department store in Moscow. Levels of difficulty like any computer game, with the rewards getting bigger and bigger the higher up you go.

So then the two immediate problems would be funding and that technically it’s probably illegal. If Bill Gates bought the Palestinians several hi-tech Israeli greenhouses to feed themselves which they proceeded to plunder for the copper tubing maybe he’d be up to fund an all-American hacker project.

And if it’s illegal, we can invite Russia to take us to the Hague to adjudicate. If it takes the international court people as long to figure out whether or not it’s illegal as they have to come up with a definition of terrorism, we’re home free.

Aug 14, 2008 - 9:53 pm 177. buddy larsen:

“Stalin: he found his people revolting.”

Aug 14, 2008 - 9:54 pm 178. sigintel:

Doug: Obama will lose this election because this war(Russo-Georgian) will still be on front page news for months to come…this isn’t an Israeli 7 day war…the Russkies are going to hold strategic ground until they are diplomatically or militarily pushed back…thats going to take time and the news has to cover it espicially if it stay a “Hot War”… this is a wonderful wake-up call to American Idol watching Americans…there’s evil in the world just like GWB said there was….and Obama will look weaker and weaker on defense because he’s an appeaser who’s never had to hold his ground!

Aug 14, 2008 - 9:54 pm 179. Teresita:

Bob Murphy: The place has gone from being Upper Volta with missiles to Upper Volta with oil wells in 20 years.

Their oil production is peaking. Russian gangster/politicians are making no provision to invest their oil wealth for the next generation of their own citizens like they do in Norway. In another 20 years it will be Upper Volta with empty farmhouses.

Aug 14, 2008 - 9:57 pm 180. buddy larsen:

Wonder how we could finance 7 more carrier battle groups (for a nice round 20) without adding to the debt. Sell Yellowstone to the public & operate it as a theme park a la Disney?

Aug 14, 2008 - 9:59 pm 181. cjm:

anyone who reads andrew sullivan can safely be ignored. he is an inconsequential flit with nothing interesting or intelligent to say. just another bath house bore.

Aug 14, 2008 - 10:02 pm 182. Elroy Jetson:

Putin is simply the Don of the largest mafia on earth. He doesn’t give a rat’s behind about the suffering masses. He has delusions of creating a new Russian empire out of oil and natural gas gross profit. What a damn fool.
Even some of the more liberal Arab states recognize the need to diversify their economies to have a hedge against falling energy prices. Czar Putin has staked his entire reign on that one sector.
God help the Russian people. They are powerless to bring about change unless oil slips back to $40/bbl. and stays there. Czar Putin will try his best with the help of Iran/Hezbollah/Hamas to keep the markets jittery and the people pacified. Otherwise he wouldn’t be able to afford to pay his wiseguys.
As the saying goes, “That is no way to run an airline!”

Aug 14, 2008 - 10:02 pm 183. cjm:

if we start drilling we can finance another 100 carrier groups without adding debt.

Aug 14, 2008 - 10:03 pm 184. bobal:

If Obama wins I’m heading to my redoubt in the hills, with a shotgun, because every bad ass country in the world will test him in the first year or so.

Aug 14, 2008 - 10:04 pm 185. bobal:

You sell Yellowstone, I’m not reading your stuff ever again, Larsen. Larceny. Larceny Larsen.

Aug 14, 2008 - 10:07 pm 186. JMH:

Wretched wrote: They could create cities of glass, maglev rail networks, monuments to art, cities on Mars. If they could get the Putins, Stalins, Yagodas, Yezovs, Berias out of the way.

Ah, but the Russians love their strong men, its as much a part of their character as Vodka. You will not in our lives separate the Russian and his leader. How many pine for Stalin, and see some of him in Putin?

You could say the Russians are great academicians, with an inexpclicable desire for authoritarian rule. No wonder they are so popular with college professors.

But Wretchard is wrong about the glass cities on Mars. The Russians won’t build any, because with current demographic trends, there won’t be any Russians left by the time Mars is terraformed. Which is also why the Chinese man who buys the Italian villa won’t employ any Ivans.

Aug 14, 2008 - 10:12 pm 187. Teresita:

cjm: anyone who reads andrew sullivan can safely be ignored. he is an inconsequential flit with nothing interesting or intelligent to say. just another bath house bore

If you are interested in enchanted people who are also conservative, don’t read that RINO who actually supports Obama, stick with Tammy Bruce.

Aug 14, 2008 - 10:13 pm 188. cjm:

i like tammy; sometimes she is on the local radio.

Aug 14, 2008 - 10:16 pm 189. Teresita:

JMH: The Russians won’t build any, because with current demographic trends, there won’t be any Russians left by the time Mars is terraformed.

Even if you terraform Mars and get water to flow on the surface, it won’t do you any good, because any farmer can tell you things don’t grow in crushed rock, only in living soil. And it would cost so much to haul dirt to Mars it’s not funny!

Aug 14, 2008 - 10:17 pm 190. sigintel:

Global laws governing cyberspace are still being devised. In nations waging war, they are least likely to be applied.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7559850.stm

Aug 14, 2008 - 10:19 pm 191. Sparks:

The first thought that came to me upon hearing about the Russian incursion into Georgia was that someone should immediately send some unmanned drone aircraft armed with Hellfire missles into Georgia and take out the lead Russian tanks. Don’t say anything just keep taking out the tanks till they were all out of the country. Then go back to the Olympics. End of story.

Russia has a glittering destiny before it? Since when? Being dragged down to a slaughter in Israel is not my notion of a glittering destiny. Wretchard?

Aug 14, 2008 - 10:26 pm 192. Lifeofthemind:

cjm,
Let us be real. The United States can afford to increase our Armed Forces by 15% per annum each year for a period of 4 years. That would nearly double our active duty armed forces to a nearly million man army and another million and a quarter divided between the Navy, Air Force, Marines and Coast Guard. That is not an unreasonably large force for a population the size of the united Sates to sustain. National wealth spent on the military is now at an unusually low level of about 3.7% of GDP. Most people do not realize that the size of the armed forces and the expenditures on the armed forces have not risen much during this war. In fact the size and cost of the armed forces as a percentage of the nations capacity are now almost half what they were 20 years ago and about a third of what they were during Vietnam. We can easily afford to increase military spending to 7% of GDP. This is sufficient to give us the mix of heavy and flexible forces needed and the ability to deal with multiple emergent threats in a complex and dangerous world.

Aug 14, 2008 - 10:28 pm 193. jwillie:

DrJ – Every business model is “financially focused.”

You are correct, and my sentence left out an important word that would not have suggested otherwise (see below for correction). On the other hand, you appear to be far too literal in your interpretation of the concept about ideas/code “wanting” to be free. It’s more like water “wants” to run downhill. Anyway, I’m not gonna debate it here b/c it’s off-topic. My primary point was to recognize the gracious and polite response of mark-b.

It is a foreign concept to those whose business models and minds address only analog businesses, or who are primarily financially focused.

Aug 14, 2008 - 10:32 pm 194. cjm:

we should make our military a profit center. any client state can be offered full protection from external threats for 2% of their GDP.

Aug 14, 2008 - 10:33 pm 195. cjm:

for god’s sake no one cares about linux or software business models.

Aug 14, 2008 - 10:34 pm 196. nichevo:

Anyone up on the Polish ORBAT? I am all for the agreement – and how – but I hope their military is not four tents and a jeep. I would assume not – but I don’t know. If Poland offers to come to OUR assistance, I hope it has something to offer besides location, location, location for BMD.

Not that this is the point, but would they be interested in sending some (more) troops to AF/Iraq? We’d be glad to see ‘em; I know of at least 2000 vacancies…

Aug 14, 2008 - 10:42 pm 197. DrJ:

cjm, you are right. I’ll let it pass because it is off topic here, and there is religion involved.

Aug 14, 2008 - 10:44 pm 198. nichevo:

cjm, don’t you think 2% is low? Esp. if they don’t have to act or suffer themselves? Remember, man, cost PLUS.

I say 5%. At 2% you should get the kids’ meal.

Aug 14, 2008 - 10:44 pm 199. cjm:

2% if they provide troops, who are then elgible for citizenship. no one gets in for free anymore. let “dissapointed” americans sell their citizenship rights on ebay (and then go to a socialist paradise where your whoore dollars by more). 5% for the gold package, details to be filled in

Aug 14, 2008 - 10:48 pm 200. Lifeofthemind:

According to Wiki Yes I know the Polish army is about 100,000 active with one Armored and three Mechanized Divisions. Less than 2% of GDP. But I bet that they’d fight.

Aug 14, 2008 - 10:48 pm 201. JB:

“The most damning thing I can think of in modern Russian history is that Stalin died of natural causes.”

There’s dispute as to whether he actually did. I tend to buy the theory that Beria did him before he did Beria. But stipulating your premise, it is not substantially less damning that he had ruled for over a quarter of a century than that he died of natural causes.

Aug 14, 2008 - 10:49 pm 202. buddy larsen:

many russians have died of natural cossacks

Aug 14, 2008 - 10:57 pm 203. Bob Murphy:

I was implying that during all that time he was in power, Stalin wasn’t killed.
After what he did, no one had the balls to diss him.
Speaking of which, it was probably a typo but someone else mentioned “dissapointed” in an earlier e-mail.:)

Aug 14, 2008 - 11:04 pm 204. buddy larsen:

military power, whatever you don’t have the other fellow automatically does. so if you underspend by 10%, it’s really 20%. and any percentage at or below the tipping point, even .01, automatically = 100%. It’s like, you’re racing another guy from point a to point b, and you take a wrong turn say 5% of the distance. now you have to double back, so 10% just to get back to where you went wrong, and the other guy meanwhile is 10% down the right road, so your 5% error = 20% error, which = 100% of your chance to win. this is known as “game theery”.

Aug 14, 2008 - 11:13 pm 205. Elroy Jetson:

Stalin deserved to die by one of his own “show trials” after a couple of years of solitary without adequate food and no cigarettes.
Then, a death of a thousand papercuts administered over several months without medical attention in completely unsanitary conditions would have sufficed.
Someone should bomb that hideous Stalin monument in Gori!

Aug 14, 2008 - 11:18 pm 206. mark_b:

DrJ:

During the dotcom boom I was buying Utility Stocks and Canadian Natural Gas.

I was also busting my butt at a hot sweaty job.

My friends were all “new economy, blah,blah,blah”. My tipping point was when one of them quoted Warren Buffet to justify his purchase of JDSU (JDS Uniphase).

I ditched that sweaty job this spring and am spending the summer with my daughter. Opening a business this fall. Been writing business plans for years. Finally found one I liked more than my job.

I was trying to compare open and closed source to the comments on this blog. The Russians were so easy to pick out because they had no depth. And they didn’t match the coding style.

Lastly, the percentage of Unix users here appears to be much greater than the average population. Maybe even higher than Slashdot, due all of the gamers needing proprietary drivers from Microsoft.

Unix is a system that is easier to use if you use your brain. There is clearly lots of that going on here.

I will now read and shut up.

Aug 14, 2008 - 11:24 pm 207. Bob Murphy:

I’m ambivalent about the Russkies on a number of grounds but there are some connections that amuse me.
I grew up in San Francisco and there were about 60,000 White Russians there, many of them having been shipped there by the Japs who didn’t know what else to do with them when they invaded Manchuria and found them there.
The Russkies I knew in Europe and I shared many a joke about the way we trashed Germany in WWII.
I always maintained that it was a pissy little technology park that just didn’t understand real countries.
They couldn’t even build a good four engine bomber or an airplane engine with enough power (partly because of poor fuel) to spin a four bladed prop so were incapable of strategic bombing.
They had no concept of the sheer size, mass, and power of countries like the USA and USSR. And so they marched off into Russia without even covering their backs (from the West) and then ran out of fuel, tanks, trucks, etc etc.
There seems to be a strong residual respect in the Russkies for the fact that either of our two countries could have licked Germany by itself. They know it and we know it and those Germans that survived that long certainly knew it by 1945.
I was in a Long Range Patrol Company in W Germany in the mid-1960s and used to visit E Berlin until I got a security clearance that made it inadvisable.
Whenever I crossed over at Checkpoint Charlie in uniform I would walk past the queue, push my military ID card up against the window, give them 5 or 6 seconds to see it and walk on.
If one of the Vopos/border guards stopped me or called me back I would say, “I’m not talking to you, get a Russkie”. Because Berlin was still technically an Occupation Zone and those DDR people with guns technicall illegal there was always a Russian soldier on duty there and at Freidrichstrasse U-Bahn Station, the other crossing point.
The always amiable Russian would amble over and we would start bagging the Germans and making jokes about the war and that sort of thing and we’d send the Germans up which REALLY annoyed themand then they would pat me on the shoulder and wave me on my way.
We had Germany in common.
I feel sorry for most Russians. They make Poles look ebullient.
And I’m ambivalent about pushing them and their paranoia into a corner by moving our forces into eastern Europe. But the gauntlet is down now. Subtlety might not be our strong suit but we are going to need some of it in eastern Europe until Russia runs out of oil. By then they won’t matter.

Aug 14, 2008 - 11:27 pm 208. Eggplant:

Teresita said:

“Even if you terraform Mars and get water to flow on the surface, it won’t do you any good, because any farmer can tell you things don’t grow in crushed rock, only in living soil.”

If that was true then nothing would grow on the
igneous rocks of Hawaii’s Big Island.

To terraform Mars one must first create a pressurized environment. For example, a Martian canyon (an old Martian “river” bed) that has been glazed over and pressurized with Martian atmospheric gas to about 20% of Earth’s sea level atmospheric pressure (high enough pressure to permit liquid water and allow people to work while breathing pure oxygen through masks). Have a creek of heated water running down the bottom of the canyon and recirculate it through a parallel concrete tunnel back up to the top of the canyon. Use the water as a coolant for a nuclear reactor (the canyon essentially acts as a cooling tower for the reactor). The nuclear reactor also provides mechanical energy for pumping Martian atmospheric gas (mostly carbon dioxide) back into the pressurized canyon (there’s no way one could make it “air” tight so one assumes a continuously leaking system such as exists in a typical commerical aircraft flying at 30,000 ft). Initially cover the bottom of the canyon with Martian regolith (”dirt”). The regolith would initially be poisonous due to the presence of oxidants, perchlorates, etc. These toxic substances need to be washed out with liquid water. After the toxic material has been washed out, add to the regolith ammonium nitrate or urea that was created by fixing nitrogen from the Martian atmosphere (2.7% nitrogen by volume). Again, the nuclear reactor would provide energy for fixing the nitrogen. The regolith would be replinished with nitrogen by adding excrement from the colonists and farm animals, However the original nitrogen would come from manufactured ammonium nitrate. What needs to initially come from Earth would be old Pu-239 bomb pits that would provide fuel for the nuclear reactors. Pu-239 bomb pits are the most volume efficient energy source available that works for controlled nuclear power. Of course if we could ever figure out nuclear fusion then we’d burn deuterium harvested from Martian water.

Mars can be terraformed with existing technology.

Aug 14, 2008 - 11:32 pm 209. Bob Murphy:

Animals might be extravagant to feed in such an environment, Eggplant.

Aug 14, 2008 - 11:58 pm 210. Doug:

Latest from Mal James, reporting from Gori Georgia by FNC News Crews

That’s sad, the blog only mentions a crazed “Ossestian” (sic) ONCE, and in his report he explicitly mentions “Georgian Irregulars” prominently.

Aug 15, 2008 - 12:04 am 211. starling:

I was preparing to return to the Middle East when the news of the Russian attack broke. Since my return I’ve yet to get caught up on the amazing amount of posting that took place in the last week. One very intriguing point concerns the spread of disinformation on this site, most probably by pro-Russian bloggers. If any of these comments still exist, can someone please point me to a few of them. If they are what some have said they are, I’d like to perform a content analysis of the comments, as well as analyze their rhetorical, grammatical, and logical structures. Thanks in advance.

thoughtfully
starling

Aug 15, 2008 - 12:15 am 212. Doug:

Starling,
You could start here Belmont Club » Voluntary amputation#comments in the running commentary between “Jack” and Buddy Larsen.
…get to enjoy Larsen’s wit as you work!

Aug 15, 2008 - 12:47 am 213. fedya:

cjm:
for god’s sake no one cares about linux or software business models.

DrJ:
cjm, you are right. I’ll let it pass because it is off topic here, and there is religion involved.

buddy larsen:
many russians have died of natural cossacks

Ladies, gentz, pipsqeaks, FSB/KGB comrades, what is going on here? CJM, dude, the culture of open source “culture” and the idea of a “commons” are central to small “L” liberalism and foundations of our free society and they have been since a bunch of Angles, Britannae, or what-the-heck-evers pushed back at those pusillanimous Normans with various artful sideling dodges from ghastly Centrist Feudalism.

Common Law with other community commons including shared real estates, my fellow AngloSpherians, predates and undergirds our current notions of private property. And they have NOTHING to do with the vile excrescences of Socialism, in my humbull opinion)

Yes, I know, that my fatefulle misspellink of humbull is no choke, but exposes me as one of the FSB hooligan plants. Yes, it is true. Konyok and I are working graveyard shift at Lyubianka, subterranean level 13. The promo on Georgian wine is a clever way to boost revenues of our distribution company, 71% of which is siloviki-owned…

But I digress!

DrJ, darlink, you were actually one of the few who was ON TOPIC! It seems to me that any attempt to “herd cats” as the lovely one put it, is doomed–domed I say–to utter failure. I mean, the USA does not have 17 levels under Guantanamo full of “hooliganisti”, do it?

I rest my case. (whew! that was really getting heavy)

Which leads me to the truly off topic post by Larcenous, Inc. Buddy-Baby, you get the FSB BADDE PUNNINGK award of this entire crisis. The entire subterranean level 13 is still giggling over it. Dude!

And, Uncle Solivichik says, DRINK GEORGIAN WINE! They actually invented the stuff, did you know that?

http://books.google.com/books?id=NuUSVEAUrfIC&printsec=frontcover&source=gbs_summary_r&cad=0#PPA24,M1

Aug 15, 2008 - 12:48 am 214. Doug:

cjm:
jack: who won the world series last year, the dodgers or the rams?

Aug 15, 2008 - 12:49 am 215. bobal:

I heard tonight on a science program that the atmosphere of Mars is getting slowly denser. Can that be right?

Aug 15, 2008 - 12:50 am 216. voyeur:

@ starling

the article you need is Michael Binyon in the Times [London}

‘Vladimir Putin’s mastery checkmates the West’

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/guest_contributors/article4525885.ece

It turned into a cruel parody!

Aug 15, 2008 - 1:16 am 217. Doug:

“Science Program” for al-Bob is Art Bell!

Aug 15, 2008 - 1:18 am 218. voyeur:

For a pristine example cyber-lunacy see Michael Binyons’ article in the Times [London]

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/guest_contributors/article4525885.ece

The commentary descended into either a farce or a parody, worthy of Monty Python.

Incidentally, we can all bookmark Michael Binyon and join in the fun next time!

Aug 15, 2008 - 1:31 am 219. fedya:

@wretchard:

Well, back to topic (is that still possible?).

I do think that we depend on our culture for our strength. Our ability to fight devious enemies depends entirely on our ability to do so without losing our core strength, which is, er, Applied Liberty[?].

So we wring our hands over the advantages the thugs and Fascisti enjoy. Properly so.

The reason I thought an analogy with the “open source movement” might be a fruitful beginning toward answering your question [roughly speaking] “How do we respond to gangster tactics in cyber space?” which was then extended in the comments to “How do we citizens not under military discipline volunteer to fight the numerous fascisms that beset us?”

The answers to the extended question seemed to die with the reality of “herding cats”.

Well, that is the point at which “open source” theory takes over. What was Stallmans’s great theoretical work? “The Cathedral and the Bazaar”, right?

http://www.catb.org/~esr/writings/cathedral-bazaar/cathedral-bazaar/

Well, if we are talking about volunteers wishing to work for the common good (in spite of the fact we are also rather doctrinaire libertarians, right ?– Hah!), we are talking about an open source model.

DrJ may have been right to withdraw under the pretext that “open source” is a bottomless-pit meme of horrific idiocy, at least that’s what it looks like when one reads the Linuxian debate sagas…

Still… “The Commons” is as much a foundation of Property (privately held and otherwise) as anything else one can discern. It is the foundation of the separation of sovereign authority vs representative government, of Church vs State, of legislation vs Ruler, of judicial authority vs executive authority, and on, and on, and on…

I don’t think our friends in Georgia, or in Russia, or in Azerbaijan, or … wherever… presently have enough of that heritage to functionally inform their daily life decisions. More’s the pity.

However, the Rule of Law began long before the Celts invaded what became Merrie Olde Englande, and Liberalism (free markets and universally representative governance with an Enlightened twist) long precedes the agonized struggles of Russians, and Georgians, and Chechens, and Turkmeni, and Pilipinas, and Malagasei, and ………

…to acquire a version of Liberty of their own.

And if that is a great contribution of “open source” to the struggle for Liberty, i.e. free development of one’s own “version”, well, that is our patrimony, and that is their heritage…

Aug 15, 2008 - 1:44 am 220. fedya:

Ooopsie! No, it was not Richard Stallman…

The author of “The Cathedral and the Bazaar” is/was Eric Steven Raymond.

And it still makes “Global Gurillas” look a little simple-minded, or perhaps a little derivative, sez me…

Aug 15, 2008 - 1:49 am 221. Doug:

THE RUSSIAN-GEORGIAN WAR WAS PREPLANNED IN MOSCOW – Eurasia Daily Monitor

Aug 15, 2008 - 1:49 am 222. fedya:

@Doug:
So, I just don’t get it. They admint premeditation by them thar Russikies, but they don’t point out the obvious fact that the artillery assault on Tskhinvali was a necessary military response to the already obvious Russkie mobilization? How were the Georgians supposed to destroy that bridge? Who is going to blame the Georgians for destroying that bridge when every minute of delay they could force upon the Russkies translated to hundreds if not hundrededs of thousands of lives saved?

By delaying Les Russes at Tskhinvali, Georgia saved itself. Georgia gave the world a gift; the gift they gave was the gift of time to retreat intact. Then Pres. Bush could say, “Vladimir, Baby, loooook deeee-ep into MY eyes (a**h***), my darlink. Your dumb-s**t troops are stuck facing Georgian regulars dug in deeeeee-ep at the mountain pass of Mstkheta, and they ALREADY have all sorts of anti-air, anti-armour ordinance, …or haven’t you been paying attention, darlink?”

So goes the revived Sovietskii Soyuuz. Burn in Hell, a**holes! it is now Bondage and Submissions Payback time. Pity to poor people of Russia. Pity the filthy gangster that rule them, for that matter. “God does not delight in the death of the wicked”, so why should we?

Aug 15, 2008 - 2:10 am 223. fedya:

@Doug:
So, I just don’t get it. They admint premeditation by them thar Russikies, but they don’t point out the obvious fact that the artillery assault on Tskhinvali was a necessary military response to the already obvious Russkie mobilization? How were the Georgians supposed to destroy that bridge? Who is going to blame the Georgians for destroying that bridge when every minute of delay they could force upon the Russkies translated to hundreds if not hundrededs of thousands of lives saved?

By delaying Les Russes at Tskhinvali, Georgia saved itself. Georgia gave the world a gift; the gift they gave was the gift of time to retreat intact. Then Pres. Bush could say, “Vladimir, Baby, loooook deeee-ep into MY eyes (a**h***), my darlink. Your dumb-s**t troops are stuck facing Georgian regulars dug in deeeeee-ep at the mountain pass of Mstkheta, and they ALREADY have all sorts of anti-air, anti-armour ordinance, …or haven’t you been paying attention, darlink?”

So goes the revived Sovietskii Soyuuz. Burn in Hell, a**holes! it is now time for “Bondage and Submission” payback. Pity the poor people of Russia. For that matter, pity the filthy gangsters that rule them.

“God does not delight in the death of the wicked.” So, why should we?

Aug 15, 2008 - 2:11 am 224. fedya:

By delaying Les Russes at Tskhinvali, Georgia saved itself.

Should read:
By delaying Les Russes at Tskhinvali, Georgia saved HERself.

Aug 15, 2008 - 2:49 am 225. Doug:

Here’s an earlier post on the same site w/a little different take:
RUSSIAN “TANDEMOCRACY” STUMBLES INTO A WAR
Eurasia Daily Monitor
—
I missed out on any reports regarding the bridge, wondered what the rocket assault was targeting.
Do you have a bridge link re: That Dark and Stormy Night?

Aug 15, 2008 - 2:54 am 226. fedya:

Do you have a bridge link re: That Dark and Stormy Night?

No, alas. That is one for the Journalistii and the Historianii, I’m afraid. Those tedious and tendentious historians… those ignorant and tendentious Journalists; may God bless them, every One, and the rest of us, too…

Aug 15, 2008 - 3:04 am 227. TonyB:

(BTW, did London fall off the map a few weeks ago? I haven’t heard a peep? Is Brown hiding under his cabinet table at No.10?)

Pretty much. There is only one war Brown is focusing on at the moment and that is the one with David Milliband.

I don’t think folks on the other side of the pond have appreciated quite how much of a dud Brown has turned out to be – a national embarrassment, a laughing stock.

Given that everything Brown touches turns to ashes you really should be thankful that the Brits are sitting this one out and learn to live with the fact that the UK is effectively rudderless in foreign affairs until possibly June 2010.

That said David Cameron shows promise. Was on the phone to McCain apparently and came out with robust policy options.

Aug 15, 2008 - 4:16 am 228. 2x4:

Herding cats…

My cat’s name is Georgia. A lovely calico critter with extra sharp claws. 8 years old, so no, her name had nothing to do with either the state or country. It just seemed natural to utter: “I dub thee Georgia”. I am not partial because, by coincidence, my cat has the same name.

I think a herding in the proposed sense is not necessary. We are better at an organic mode of dealing with things, in true libertarian fashion. At forming impromptu relationships to handle the tasks at hand. They tend to be more permanent, and in the long run, they (e.g. we) have more kinetic potential than herds of tasked hirees. Despite their tendency to overwhelm, they are gone now and we are here, dissecting the whole affair.

Perhaps some of them found a degree of intrigue and are reading here and there on their own dime. I refuse to believe that all of them were simply drones and so boxed in their cultural straightjacket that any possibility of infection is excluded. The dangers of becoming a dissident are not as life threatening as during the Soviet era. I don’t mean only the public face of it… perhaps rather more of a personalized inner MPD, seeds of doubt, as it were.

I had several email discussions with some folks from the other side. And the tone changed. It is rather subtle–they are still sticking to the narrative they started with, but the seeds of doubt took a hold and I have a hunch that the next time I won’t see them engaged. It won’t be, probably, an easy process, any indoctrination is not that easy to shake off as there is a solace in belonging and patterns tend to reinforce themselves by grabbing any straws available.

But subconscious knows, recognizes that something does not add up. And I can sense it,when it occurs in others.

I am not writing them all off, yet. And who else than me would have the right to be prejudiced? I still remember August 21, 1968 as it were today. The deep sound of Antonovs at 3 AM, and later a higher pitch of tanks rolling through streets. It is hard to forget, that helpless rage, despite the time that passed by.

“But we are not Soviets anymore!” Well, not by name, not by name.

Aug 15, 2008 - 5:13 am 229. 2x4:

TonyB, many things can happen it 2 years. Isn’t there anything, you there in UK, can do, except waiting it out?

Aug 15, 2008 - 5:24 am 230. buddy larsen:

Cripes, this thread on the backs of such as fedya, mark_b, murphy, eggplant, 2×4 et al, in the wee hours of the night galloped off into literature. just utterly fascinating reading –

Aug 15, 2008 - 5:48 am 231. Teresita:

Eggplant: If that was true then nothing would grow on the igneous rocks of Hawaii’s Big Island.

Wind. Birds. How did those alpine lakes get stocked with fish before helicopters and fisheries? Sticky fish eggs hitched a ride on bird feet. Mars doesn’t have a basic ecosystem to get a wedge in there and start the whole ball rolling. That takes billions of years of evolution.

cjm: we should make our military a profit center. any client state can be offered full protection from external threats for 2% of their GDP.

I think we actually made something like $14 billion profit from Gulf I. That allowed Wolfowitz to pitch Gulf II to Congress as a self-financing war, paid by Iraqi oil dollars. Now we can’t even get a discount from Iraq for the oil used by our own forces as we spend US taxpayer dollars to turn Iraq into a viable state.

Aug 15, 2008 - 5:51 am 232. Dan:

Russian general says Poland a nuclear ‘target’

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2563532/Russian-general-says-Poland-a-nuclear-target-as-Condoleezza-Rice-arrives-in-Georgia.html

Aug 15, 2008 - 6:07 am 233. buddy larsen:

”Now we can’t even get a discount from Iraq for the oil used by our own forces as we spend US taxpayer dollars to turn Iraq into a viable state”

Teresita, perhaps that’s an effect of the Ami left’s Wall of Sound on any and everything that could be remotely possibly construed as Bush/Cheney exploitation of the natives.

and what’s so ingenious about Hawaii’s rocks?

Aug 15, 2008 - 6:15 am 234. Dan:

The chess match continues. Today, a Russian general was quoted as saying “Poland is now a nuclear target,” Rice is in Tbilisi, and Lieberman/Graham are supposedly heading there, too.

I do not understand the Russian moves lately. But they appear to be the moves of the losing side.

Aug 15, 2008 - 6:24 am 235. Joe Buzz:

buddy, exactly when did this “statistician” find his way into your sphere of influence? ;-/

Starling, analyze our old friend buddy while you are at it? I’d hate to see a good Texan get turned by a smiling face? You see I was watching “Burn Notice” the other night and there was this….oh never mind.

I truly hope that London’s silence has nothing to do with Pootie’s demonstrated ability to reach out and taint folks at tea in a hotel bar….and the ownership of some football side.

WOW, “peacekeeping” efforts in both Georgia and on my favorite blogs coincidentally while many progressive socialists are coming out of the woodwork and heading to Denver. The world seems a bit smaller today.

Aug 15, 2008 - 6:29 am 236. NahnCee:

Starling – see also commenters here on BC “poul” and “AI” for wanky-sounding pro-Russian posts.

Anyone else been wondering what happened to rubyak (or however he spelled his name which I don’t want to take the time to go back and look up now). Poster who hijacked EVERY thread for several weeks before the invasion shouting “beware beware the sky is falling!” stuff, promising us that Russia was big and bad and coming to get us?

He posted some interesting stuff during the first day of Russia’s invasion and then fell off the planet. I’m wondering now if he was KGB and trying to get us to roll over and play dead with fear once the attack started. A softening up process, so to speak.

Or maybe he just gave up on Belmont Club and went somewhere else where his audience is more receptive and credulous, like KosKidz.

Aug 15, 2008 - 6:32 am 237. Teresita:

Dan: . Today, a Russian general was quoted as saying “Poland is now a nuclear target”

Russia sure as sheet is a nuclear target too, but US military policy is to be inscrutable, ala Sun Tzu, rather than flap our lips to stroke our own ego. Obama’s dream of a nuclear free world looks rather naive now.

Aug 15, 2008 - 6:34 am 238. buddy larsen:

“Poland is now a nuclear target” –as opposed to a mere two hundred armored divisions target.

Aug 15, 2008 - 6:41 am 239. Joe Buzz:

“Obama’s dream of a nuclear free world looks rather naive now.”

Tere, my friend, his circle will read and promote this development as justification for that policy. But yeah, naivety point noted. How big is the teleprompter at Bronco stadium? At least a mile high!

Aug 15, 2008 - 6:44 am 240. Tony:

Teresita sez: “Obama’s dream of a nuclear free world looks rather naive now.”

His dream of destroying our missile defense system looks like an idiot walking into a gangfight with his hands in his pockets, wearing a blindfold while listening to Will.I.Am rapping “Yes We Can” on his iPod.

Here’s video of what such a weakling loser looks like:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dl32Y7wDVDs

Aug 15, 2008 - 6:46 am 241. 2x4:

That Russian general… Didn’t he also say: “and I’ll take away your lunch money”.

He didn’t? I’d swear I’ve heard it…

Aug 15, 2008 - 6:46 am 242. RattlerGator:

Caroline Glick, in the Jerusalem World Review:

Georgia has several oil and gas pipelines that traverse its territory from Azerbaijan to Turkey, the main one being the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline. Together they transport more than one percent of global oil supplies from east to west. In response to the Russian invasion, British Petroleum, which owns the pipelines, announced that it will close them.

What this means is that Russia has won. In the future that same oil and gas will either be shipped through Russia, or it will be shipped through Georgia under the benevolent control of Russian “peacekeeping” forces permanently stationed in Gori. The West now has no option other than appeasing Russia if it wishes to receive its oil from the Caucasus.

Can someone address this contention? I know she intends it for domestic consumption and, largely, is trying to make a point to the Israeli public, but . . . for that very reason it is hyperbolic and far too pessimistic, right? Although she does serve to better frame the conflict (along with John Bolton today in the London Telegraph), I suspect they both are shouting to the world, “wake the hell up!”

Aug 15, 2008 - 7:01 am 243. Dan:

THIS is the kind of stuff that needs to be out front and center in the information war.

Russian soldiers caught robbing bank in Georgia.

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/article1563317.ece

Aug 15, 2008 - 7:06 am 244. TonyB:

2×4, Brown might be gone long before 2010 and a Cameron or Milliband government might be more vigorous on the diplomatic front. However, apart from further deployments in Helmand (where they are doing some genuine heavy lifting), militarily there is nothing else in the locker. This is largely the responsibility of Brown who is well known to have no affinity for the armed forces.

Aug 15, 2008 - 7:17 am 245. buddy larsen:

@Joe Buzz –yeh –i accuse him regularly, whenever we get off on the subject of politics. But he’s ok –came here as a little kid –the Stalin-neutral thing is really just a minor point –doesn’t carry to communism-neutrality –more of a ”it took a hard man to beat Hitler, you have to judge him in his own time & place” etc. 20 somethings –so optimistic re humanity –

Aug 15, 2008 - 7:19 am 246. RAH:

BP had shut down the BZC pipeline due to sabotage in Turkey two days before war broke out in Georgia. They shut down the pipeline from Poti on the Black Sea also.

According to BP they have started the pipeline in Baku, yesterday I believe. There is an interesting back story on BP and their dispute with Russia The BP CEO of the spun off Russian Company has left Russia and in undisclosed location. Some sort of Russian corporate shenagins. Considering the stories about the Russian criminal infiltration in corporations that may be part of it, but I do not know.

Aug 15, 2008 - 7:24 am 247. RattlerGator:

Much obliged, RAH.

Aug 15, 2008 - 7:34 am 248. slade:

The totalitarian impulse is simply too deeply imbedded in the Russian soul. To generalize a bit, they think Western values of freedom and civil rights (among others) are naive and idiotic. Hence you get the Putins. The problem isn’t Putin; he’s the symptom of a problem. They simply haven’t been able to find a way out of their historical hole. – JB

It was always a mystery to me why post-Soviet Russia failed to explode economically. It has rich supplies of natural resources, physical size, westernized population. My working assumption was the financial theft by the eight “oligarchs” which immediately sent Russia into a black market economy.

It was never completely satisfying but I made do. Being a “Heinz 57 euro-mutt” with no ethnic connection to things Russian, not for me to contemplate the Russian Soul. But the words above fill in some of the blanks left by the technical explanation.

Something “similar” – very loosely speaking – going on with
the Chinese [Glenn Reynolds]:

“In China’s Olympic moment, foreign critics are focusing on all the country has failed to achieve, from its abundant air pollution to scant human rights. China’s citizens, on the other hand, see all that the country has accomplished after emerging from foreign domination and internal turmoil. They are proud of those achievements and resentful of foreigners pointing out China’s shortcomings, especially when those failings don’t bother the alleged victims.” …

Perhaps an appreciation of authoritarianism is an acquired taste.

I’m not about to get into ethnic profiling, but I also wondered about the Russians. It also helps to explain the “not right” feeling I have had about this whole Georgia affair.

Aug 15, 2008 - 7:39 am 249. buddy larsen:

RAH, and all –look into how the old pre-Putin Gazprom was taken from private sector to gov’t. The same sort of thing is happening re BP shareholders –Kremlin use of courts to wear out the western interests and take the assets. see also Shell and Sakhelin project. see Yukos, too. If people are going into hiding on the BP lawsuits, it’s because of an already-established record of strange car accidents and street muggings among previous cast of characters. As far as BP –British Petroleum –i think the gamma-ray tea means London is not far enough away if you’re opposing the Kremlin on even a commercial issue.

One can almost hear the oil-importing land masses powering down –like a power-cut turbine, the sound sliding down the chromatic scale as the RPMs fall.

Aug 15, 2008 - 7:44 am 250. Konyok:

Doug,

Pavel Felgenhauer is amazing. I sometimes wonder why Volodya Putin hasn’t served him a polonium cocktail.

Aug 15, 2008 - 7:54 am 251. slade:

I am confused about why Russia hasn’t built a Trans-Siberian pipeline (along the same right-of-way as the Trans-Siberian Railway) all the way to Vladivostok. This would bring Russian (and central Asian) petroleum to the Japanese, Korean, and coastal Chinese markets. I am confused why Russia won’t…. – Alexis

I read from the bottom-up just to be cranky so I missed this post. I won’t reprint the whole thing but exactly the point I tried to make above – obviously the more articulate version.

Enormous potential to become economic powerhouse and yet …

Invade Georgia.

Aug 15, 2008 - 7:58 am 252. Lifeofthemind:

Good morning sports fans. Is General Franco still dead?
Given the Russian’s verbal diarrhea regarding Poland it may be appropriate for Lithuania and Poland to close the land crossings to Kaliningrad. My biggest concern is that the Turks are sniffing at a carrot that Iran is dangling before them. Condi Rice needs to have a serious talk with Germany on how to get Europe to cooperate in keeping Turkey on the side of the angels.

Aug 15, 2008 - 7:59 am 253. buddy larsen:

Konyok, i wonder the same about Gary Kasparov. Perhaps the high public profile is the insurance policy.

Aug 15, 2008 - 8:01 am 254. Lifeofthemind:

Dan, links to the Sun web site can be terribly costly to my time in the morning.

Aug 15, 2008 - 8:01 am 255. neolex:

@wretchard

I understand that given the amount of comments, you need to keep some order here, but I’m not sure that the perception of censorship is worth it. I’m still curious what the comment at 5:16 was.

Offtopic: @Eggplant interesting stuff about Mars terraforming. I just read the amazing Mars Trilogy. How much does the new information change the potential terraforming scenarios described there?

Aug 15, 2008 - 8:05 am 256. 2x4:

Lifeofthemind, the carrot was not apparently juicy enough for Turks. No deal.

Aug 15, 2008 - 8:06 am 257. neolex:

@Aether

In the old Europe, our best (least bad) ally is UK. France is a member of NATO, just so you know.

Aug 15, 2008 - 8:06 am 258. Dan:

Lifeofthemind:

LOL. Gotcha. How about alink to the Moscow Times, then? And actually, there is a lot of fascinating stuff at their site this morning, FWIW.

“…there is little evidence that civilians were specifically targeted by Georgian troops as Russia claims.”

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article/1010/42/369789.htm

Aug 15, 2008 - 8:08 am 259. neolex:

@2×4

I think US should support the elements within Turkish army that want to stage a coup and tell EU to shut up about democracy in the parts of the world where they dont understand the dangers and the situation on the ground.

Aug 15, 2008 - 8:08 am 260. Lifeofthemind:

neolax,
It was nothing, a couple of youtube links from The Lion in Winter
Henry II and Philip II discussing statecraft and the definition of “Winning”

Aug 15, 2008 - 8:08 am 261. No Genuis:

John Bolton’s comments on the issue:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/georgia/2563260/John-Bolton-After-Russias-invasion-of-Georgia-what-now-for-the-West.html

“The European Union took the lead in diplomacy, with results approaching Neville Chamberlain’s moment in the spotlight at Munich: a ceasefire that failed to mention Georgia’s territorial integrity, and that all but gave Russia permission to continue its military operations as a “peacekeeping” force anywhere in Georgia”

Aug 15, 2008 - 8:09 am 262. Lifeofthemind:

2X4,
Good news, thank you
here are those really nothing links again.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M5TsbpOQtSA
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CxZdTLa4CWA&feature=related

Aug 15, 2008 - 8:10 am 263. Konyok:

buddy,

I agree, he’s just too prominent for “wet” measures. Still, that hasn’t protected him from being arrested.

That just underscores one of the things that drives me crazy when talking with our *progressive* friends. They are SO enamored of the repressive Bush-Cheney regime rhetoric, but so clueless when presented with the real McCoy in Russia. Can you imagine the outrage if Ralph Nader were arrested, for any reason whatsoever? (Yeah, I know, Alan Keyes … )

Aug 15, 2008 - 8:11 am 264. Lifeofthemind:

Dan, did you catch the line about the “old jewish quarter?” Wonder where they all went as Russians cry about there allies being subjected to “ethnic cleansing?”
Nope it really hates those youtube links, they got flagged again.

Aug 15, 2008 - 8:13 am 265. S:

There is a substantial amount of inertia in the intel and defense community against lapsing back into the cold war paradigm – hence the Russia and China “strategic” partner talk. The only people who believe this are the leftist in State anfd surrounding apparatus. The one thing partner about them is their ability to buy Treasuries and sate stretched US consumers with cheap goods as a short term palliative measure – like being patted on the back while your wallet goes missing.

The problem for the US – vs. Cold War – is that the US won and the rest of the world got the playbook. US now compete against economic shadows of itself around the world, whilst relying on the same folk for funding. Is said paradigm zero sum, TBD, but it is under strain.

Good idea on monetizing military prowess, but the Amex customers are the same folks mentioned above. Consider that Boeing is already under threat as the Chinese, Japanese and Russians are talking about building Jumbos.

The US has a serious competitive problem and while jingoism feels good, the reality is less easily digested, but as history suggests a pill that is best swallowed early on. Competitiveness is at the crux of the apoplexy in the capital markets. Cheap debt and rolling bubbles have smoothed over a rotting from the inside out. There can be no doubt the problems will/must be addressed and confidence restored, the sooner the better, but merely spending more to the exclusion of long term logistical funding considerations misses the point entirely. The Brits had similar delusion right up until (perhaps still) the British Empire Ended.

Aug 15, 2008 - 8:14 am 266. neolex:

An excellent recent example of extremely successful and brilliantly conducted cyberwarfare was the initial stages of Anonymous campaign against scientology. I think there are a lot of lessons to be learned from it.

Aug 15, 2008 - 8:15 am 267. Lifeofthemind:

Let’s try embedding them so we can see Statecraft.
Winning.

Aug 15, 2008 - 8:16 am 268. Cannoneer No. 4:

Wherever there is Russians, there is trouble.”

Aug 15, 2008 - 8:18 am 269. Lifeofthemind:

Nope tried reposting the links and tried embedding in a href but no joy. better stop before I get banned for chewing bandwidth. Can’t imagine why this happens. Computers are strange. An Uncle of mine spent 50 years almost in IBM and then Federal Systems. He gave us Corey Ford’s Guide to Thimking, wonderful cartoon book, still all true today.

Aug 15, 2008 - 8:19 am 270. nichevo:

Volodya, Volodya, Volodya! Are you and he tight? I’m so jealous! Seriously, is that a patrionymic or a diminutive of Vladimir? Occasionally I wonder if we’re talking about the same guy.

PS Just dated a Polish chick last night. Believe me, they know the score with Russia.

Aug 15, 2008 - 8:25 am 271. buddy larsen:

Slade, if the strategic goal is to widen the ratio between your cost of industrial production and your opponent’s, and given the non-renewability of the resource, denying it to your opponent (or rationing it thru price) may be more profitable than selling it to him. Especially in the military power & control area. pay attention to the fact that the exporting nations are subsidizing their populace –ie, selling oil to their own industry 7 consumers based on its production costs, rather than the NYMEX spot crude price which we think of as ”the cost of oil”.

Aug 15, 2008 - 8:25 am 272. neolex:

“Wherever there is Russians, there is trouble.”

I disagree with that. You have US and Israel as examples. Russian community in US, is extremely hard working and fairly successfuly (except in political sphere, which shows Russians are completely unused to democratic institutions and social responsibility).

In Israel, Russians have really rejuvenated the country economically. Mass immigration of Russian Jews into Israel was a blessing for it. It has to be noted, that most Russians in US and Israel are, in fact, Jews, but that changes little as they are still carriers of the USSR culture.

Aug 15, 2008 - 8:28 am 273. Konyok:

nichevo,

Volodya is the diminutive of Vladimir. It is calculated to annoy nationalistic Russians. The very thought of treating their hero in such a disrespectful manner enrages them.

Aug 15, 2008 - 8:30 am 274. Lifeofthemind:

I have CNN feed on but I am getting no sound, the ad has sound and Condi starts to speak and the sound cuts out.

Aug 15, 2008 - 8:31 am 275. neolex:

@ Konyok

How dare you? You pathetic Western lackey!

Aug 15, 2008 - 8:32 am 276. Cannoneer No. 4:

“Everything nice makes them sick.”

некультурный варваров

Aug 15, 2008 - 8:36 am 277. Konyok:

Here’s a taste of the ambiguous complexity that faces honest Russians:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Liberation_Army

A bit of pictorial context about Vlasov and his soldiers:

http://www.serpentswall.com/page22.html

Solzhenitsyn goes into great detail in The Archipelago.

**

Still, one of the things that really upsets me now is the apparent complete absence of a peace movement in Russia. I’ve heard no rumor of even the smallest demonstration or dissent. Even during the Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia Grigorenko and others had the courage to demonstrate on Red Square.
Fear? Apathy? Herd mentality?

This is something that I’d like the Russian posters and trolls to address.

Aug 15, 2008 - 8:38 am 278. RattlerGator:

neolex, are the Russian Jews really carriers of Russian culture and would the non-Jewish Russians agree with that statement?

I ask only because of my amazement how the mere injection of “things Jewish” into a discussion with a wide range of white people does really bizarre things to the discussion. I suspect the entire Russia-Near Abroad thing is quite similar vis-a-vis Eastern Europeans.

Aug 15, 2008 - 8:42 am 279. slade:

So Buddy, an Insta-Slade poll would be:

Georgia is all about

(a) the business of oil

(b) the politics of the Ukraine

(c) both

(d) the Russian Soul – intransigent and inevitable.

Aug 15, 2008 - 8:42 am 280. Konyok:

Dan,

Thanks for the Moscow Times link.
I think that the fat lady might be warming up …

Aug 15, 2008 - 8:42 am 281. Dan:

Ok, this one is certainly relevant to the thread, and I believe makes some strong points…

Russians losing propaganda war

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7562611.stm

And this one sheds some very interesting (and until now, unseen, as far as I know) light on specific events, as well as the Russian acknowledgment that their equipment is really not up to snuff. As more is learned, many will no doubt be focusing on some specifics here, especially the SIGINT aspect.

Note that the wounding of the 58th’s commander may be traced to intercepted cell phone calls made by journalists traveling with him…

Conflict exposes obsolete hardware

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article/600/42/369809.htm

Aug 15, 2008 - 8:42 am 282. nichevo:

Thank you, Konyok, I was happy with “Vlad” but da, eta pravilno.

Hmm, I wonder how those shirtless pics of him would look Photoshopped up into gay porn…

Aug 15, 2008 - 8:43 am 283. voyeur:

‘Patriot battery will be under US command, but Mr Tusk said Warsaw would be interested in buying dozens more such systems, in addition to “many more” F-16 jet fighters to protect Polish airspace. The missile defence base would also involve the first permanent stationing of US troops in Poland, which Mr Tusk said meant “Poland will no longer be in the sphere which is not directly defended”.

The thing about Eastern Europe is that the borders have changed several times in the last century or so, each time at a high price in blood. Poland especially. Once the economic boom fades, the old insecurities come back.

Aug 15, 2008 - 8:46 am 284. Lifeofthemind:

Got it on Fox, I want to vote for Saakashvili

Aug 15, 2008 - 8:47 am 285. Dan:

This link is certainly relevant to the thread, and I believe makes some strong points…

Russians losing propaganda war

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7562611.stm

And this one sheds some very interesting (and until now, unseen, as far as I know) light on specific events, as well as the Russian acknowledgment that their equipment is really not up to snuff. As more is learned, many will no doubt be focusing on some specifics here, especially the SIGINT aspect.

Note that the wounding of the 58th’s commander may be traced to intercepted cell phone calls made by journalists traveling with him…

Conflict exposes obsolete hardware

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article/600/42/369809.htm

Aug 15, 2008 - 8:47 am 286. Cannoneer No. 4:

slade,

post-Soviet Russia failed to explode economically because there was not and still is not any way to enforce contracts. Russians can’t trust each other to do what they say they are going to do, but they can trust each other to screw over the other one first chance they get. Whoever is on the negative side of the correlation of forces bends over and takes and whoever is on top rams it in and breaks it off.

Aug 15, 2008 - 8:49 am 287. Konyok:

nichevo,

You made me spill my coffee

Aug 15, 2008 - 8:51 am 288. neolex:

@RattlerGator

Yes, and agreement of etnic Russians has no bearing on the accuracy of that statement. I don’t want to inject Jewish things into the discussion, just wanted to preempt and argument that most Russians abroad were Jews.

@slade

When it comes to causes and effects, rather than opinion gradations, polls become completely useless, as you can’t simplify a complex situation that has a multitude of causes and even greater number of effects with 4-5 or even a dozen choices.

Aug 15, 2008 - 8:56 am 289. RAH:

I have always thought the Chinese are capitalistic in their DNA. There have been Chinese traders in Africa, back before Greece was a power.

I had a friend that was half Chinese and he had multitudes of recent immigrant relatives live in their house and then move to another relative and they pooled their money. Even though these relatives all spoke different dialects and could not communicate with each other that did not stop them.

Communism imposed by the state was not a good fit on the Chinese people. Note the amount of substitution of chemicals in Chinese products just to make a greater profit. Quality control, not so good.

Russia had maybe too many centuries of absolute rule that have affected their psyche.

I thought one of the great failures of post Soviet time was the failure to change their laws to reflect the primacy of private property. From the idea that one owns oneself and the fruits from their labor and all that buys leads to a sense of freedom.

It seems only the Cossacks were granted that status with the right to be armed.

Aug 15, 2008 - 8:57 am 290. slade:

Cannoneer No. 4 -

You seem to be arguing that the example of Russia makes the case that markets must precede government as states evolve into post-modern structures rather than vice-versa.

I don’t disagreee. I just don’t know.

Not a day goes by that I don’t thank God to have been born in USA.

Aug 15, 2008 - 8:59 am 291. Konyok:

Cannoneer,

The integrity of contracts is crucial.
Another enormous problem that I’ve never seen anybody discuss is top down government funding. Provinces, cities and localities have no authority to tax and collect their own revenues. Every spending decision has to be approved from above.
Great example is Crimea. This Russian majority area in Ukraine has terrific tourist potential, but the infrastructure is simply awful. In Sevastopol, for instance, they have a permanent rolling black out of tap water – each neighborhood gets a couple of hours of water in the morning and the evening. Except for the really expensive top end and the old official Soviet establishments with cockroaches and urine in the hallways, there are no hotels. When you visit you rent a private flat on a daily basis. In the kitchen there is usually a whole corner full of bottled water – that is for flushing toilets when the water is off.
Sidewalks, roads and everything else are ramshackle and inadequate.
The city and regional governments have no power to raise money themselves to fix this stuff. Their whole budgeting process is geared around lobbying the legislature to give them money.
In Crimea this is complicated by the nationalistic impulses of the Ukrainian Rada, who are still want to punish the ethnic Russians. Nevermind that they could get a lot of hard currency for tourism.

I think that this whole vicious cycle is actually an important part of a lot of the sucessionist sentiment in some of these autonomous areas of the FSU.

Aug 15, 2008 - 9:04 am 292. slade:

Oh I agree neolex but a response has to be structured and the message to be effective has to be focused and crystal clear, as per Wretchard’s “lines in the sand.” That message will be more informed by politics as a driver, which is probably appropriate if not required. I can understand some of the politics and some of the economics but the full picture is still a little thin to me, until I reach the conclusion that this was a “not ready for prime time” exercise that back-fired.

Aug 15, 2008 - 9:11 am 293. Zim:

I have read closely here for the past few days and think I can add my 2 cents without looking like a complete idiot (at least to myself). First observation- When you want to use a hammer really bad alot of things look like nails. Putin really wanted to show Russian military strength (why?) and thought Georgia was a nail that could be pounded down. I think he miscalulated, but maybe not, it’s too early to tell for me.

Second observation-If what we saw here at BC is a good example of Russian propaganda skills then I believe Russia is to propaganda as Vogons are to poetry.

Aug 15, 2008 - 9:15 am 294. Eggplant:

Teresita said:

“Mars doesn’t have a basic ecosystem to get a wedge in there and start the whole ball rolling. That takes billions of years of evolution.”

I disagree. Study what happened around Mt. St. Helens after that volcano nuked the surrounding ecosystem. It only took a few years for nature to reboot itself and reestablish a thriving ecology. Also keep in mind that this happened on initially nitrate free volanic ash. Nature is very robust when given the chance.

The prototype for a Mars colony is the Moari colonization of New Zealand. This came in two waves. The first wave were Polynesian hunter-gatherers. They arrived in New Zealand around 1300 AD and almost wrecked New Zealand’s original ecology. The second wave of colonists were farmers and warriors. They exterminated the original colonists and then created a sustainable society. It is estimated that the thousands of Moari descendants alive today originated from between 300-400 colonists. That’s the key to colonizing Mars. Get between 500-1000 people on Mars with a technology that enables growth based upon in-situ resources. Do the math, and calculate how many people would be on Mars assuming an initial colony of 1000 people that doubles every 20 years. It only takes a couple centuries before there are hundreds of millions of people on the planet. That’s how you terraform Mars.

I’m going camping and won’t be able to respond to comments.

Aug 15, 2008 - 9:27 am 295. Lifeofthemind:

There needs to be a renewed debate, or at least a thread , about how to turn Russia into a normal state.

Aug 15, 2008 - 9:31 am 296. RattlerGator:

RAH, I agree completely about the Chinese and their affinity for capital enterprises.

Aug 15, 2008 - 9:39 am 297. cjm:

conquer them, kill the leaders, occupy them for three generations. repeat as necessary.

Aug 15, 2008 - 9:53 am 298. Aristide:

@Zim

I suspect one could say this…

I have read closely here for the past few days and think I can add my 2 cents without looking like a complete idiot (at least to myself). First observation- When you want to use a hammer really bad alot of things look like nails. Saakashvili really wanted to show Georgian military strength (why?) and thought South Ossetia was a nail that could be pounded down. I think he miscalulated, but maybe not, it’s too early to tell for me.

Aug 15, 2008 - 9:56 am 299. Extraneus:

This Poland deal seems pretty important, especially to Moscow:

“Poland, by deploying (the system) is exposing itself to a strike — 100 percent,” [Col.-Gen. Anatoly] Nogovitsyn, the deputy chief of staff, was quoted as saying.

100 percent? Significantly, as mentioed upthread, the mutual protection deal isn’t with NATO, but with the US. We’re saying in simple language: “Touch Poland and it’s war with us.” Whoa. Is a non-NATO deal with Ukraine next?

Considering that many of them pitched in during the Iraq war, unlike most of our NATO allies, we seem to be implementing a longer-term strategy of developing our own set of alliances with the former Soviet republics, ouside of the auspices of NATO. Is there any way Obama would have the balls to see that through?

But the Poland thing is a done deal. That being the case, what’s the point for Russia to threaten them after the fact?

Aug 15, 2008 - 9:57 am 300. buddy larsen:

Slade, your 8:42 is very grave and full of truth. Here are some names: Victor Chernomyrdin of the Chernomyrdin Commission (also envoy in Balkans conflict & ambassador to Ukraine but put that aside for now) was charged with taking USSR’s assets private. His USA counterpart/advisor was VP Al Gore, American envoy to Chern. Commission.

Nobody has ever understood why the most important political event of the century if not the millenium, the casting away of communism by Russia, was not a presidential-level concern in USA, but was handed off to the VP (who has not yet reported meeting minutes to congress, as required by law), whose ties with Russia were thru his father’s sponsor, Armand Hammer of Occidental, associate of Russian leaders as far back as Lenin (Stalin alone is said to’ve kept him a level lower, but –maybe a deception).

Somehow, the transfer of USSR assets to the private sector was so severly bungled, with the so-called oligarchs ending up with the vast fortunes, that the decade-later rise of a Putin-like nationalist strongman was almost guaranteed.

Meanwhile back at the ranch, 2000 comes along, Al Gore loses an election, Putin wins one, and the new millenium kicks off with Al Gore off on a major global crusade to among other things smother USA oil companies –and American industry in general –with more and more taxation and public scorn as spoilers of the planet. He is soon out with a more visual companion to an earlier book, a power-point presentation that somehow wins a film Oscar and a Nobel –and is aimed at (thru what could be called a crude/clever KGB-like fearmongering called ”global warming”) preventing USA from developing domestic oil supplies, which of course is currently causing us to fall ever deeper into dependence and debt and slow growth as the price of oil ramps higher and higher. Now along comes “Georgia”.

Dunno how all this fits together. Gold & oil are falling like crazy lately –but esp today (take a look at the news), a day of crisis in Georgia, when by any past experience both should be going straight up. Either the market is unconcerned with this war, or some big holders are dumping –possibly in order to defuse fear over Russia’s grab? Dunno. Will see if I can get a peep into the dynamics of the trade today tho. Hey i hope i don’t sound too nutty –it is true i may have drunk too much coffee this morning. But that doesn’t mean we should not be very wary of elements within our nation’s Green Movement –

Aug 15, 2008 - 10:01 am 301. Konyok:

buddy,

I hate facile linkages, but your notion isn’t far fetched at all.

Think Gorbachev’s Green Cross …

Aug 15, 2008 - 10:21 am 302. cjm:

demand destruction is growing faster than supply disruption. you can push string all you like but it won’t get you far.

Aug 15, 2008 - 10:32 am 303. cjm:

if any evidence comes to light about al gore cutting secret deals with the russians, it will be very interesting to see what happens back in the u.s.a

at least that german turd (schroder?) had the deceny to take his 30 pieces of silver in public view. “thanks suckers”

Aug 15, 2008 - 10:34 am 304. buddy larsen:

Thank you for that, Konyok. Once the Borg owns the fuel, the Borg owns the food, and the local Gauleiter issues your ration card, or not, on his own authority. The final takeover of organized crime. The debbil will have won in the planetary battle between good & evil. Closer to the psychosexual truth, mankind will have finally decided whether or not, as predators, it is ok to consume one another.

Aug 15, 2008 - 10:39 am 305. 3Case:

The Russian people are sheep. It has to be that simple. If they are not sheep, then they must be bad people and get what they deserve. Once they suffered the USSR, now they suffer the USSP, the Union of Soviet Secret Police.

The oligarch who just bought Villa Leopolda cannot exist without Putin’s permission; perhaps Putin is the oligarch.

Aug 15, 2008 - 10:48 am 306. Aether:

RAH:

“I have always thought the Chinese are capitalistic in their DNA.”

My team just signed a large contract with a Chinese customer, that we’ve been negotiating for roughly a year.

I’ve come to really admire the CEO and his team… they’re Smart, Engaging, Hard Working, and definitely Capitalist’s at heart.

but they appear to be very apolitical, and I cannot divine if that is from politeness or fear. (ie. force of habit)

Aug 15, 2008 - 10:53 am 307. Konyok:

It’s a new paradigm, a smiley-faced “kind-to-the-planet” children’s crusade.

Humanists like Gandhi, Solzhenitsyn, MLK, Havel et al. fought for the dignity and value of human beings against the multifarious forces of great ideas and social convenience.

Now, we have a perverse inversion in which the heirs of humanism seek to sacrifice the human being to a faceless god of nature.

Aug 15, 2008 - 10:53 am 308. buddy larsen:

3Case, if the Russians could be seen as many sheep kept by a few wolves, why couldn’t the Americans be seen the same way? Because we haven’t yet completly left behind our shepard?

Aug 15, 2008 - 10:54 am 309. Zim:

Aristides,

Yeah, I noticed that my statement could’ve easily been worn on the other foot, but that doesn’t mean it fits. I’m by no means an expert in these matters, but I will try to defend my statement. It’s about motives, is it not? Georgia certainly had a motive for entering S. Ossetia, but it wasn’t just to pound nails, or if it was then insanity rules there and all bets are off. Russia entering Georgia, and all of her behavior since, reek of a country frustrated, angry, whatever and shooting at the first thing that moves.

Like I said, just my 2 cents.

Aug 15, 2008 - 10:57 am 310. mika.:

RAH: I was very surprised at the media coverage that were cautious about death and mayhem claims by the Russians. Every time the media, from Al Jaazera to CNN, said that casualty numbers could not be confirmed. Also that tales of brutality could not be confirmed.
==
Because the Jihadi sponsor is the same. If one follows the overarching agenda of the MSM, it is that of furthering the spread of Jihad and Jihadis. Right vs Left, White vs Yellow, Russian Imperialists vs American Imperialists, the Oil Mafia vs. Energy Independence, the agenda is such as to advantage Jihadis.

Aug 15, 2008 - 10:59 am 311. buddy larsen:

”Now, we have a perverse inversion in which the heirs of humanism seek to sacrifice the human being to a faceless god of nature” –is the perverse inversion that this new god of nature wants to deliver us to the worst despoilers of the planet, the totalitarians?

Aug 15, 2008 - 10:59 am 312. Konyok:

buddy,
Actually, Al Gore’s statement in “Earth in the Balance” that the environment should be the single organizing principle of mankind captures the totalitarian flavor in its entirety.

The very notion of a “organizing principle” for the Earth’s billions of mind-universes is Borg.

Aug 15, 2008 - 11:01 am 313. Aether:

Extraneus:

“But the Poland thing is a done deal. That being the case, what’s the point for Russia to threaten them after the fact?”

I’m thinking that threat is actually directed at the Ukrainians, Bellorussians, etc.

Aug 15, 2008 - 11:08 am 314. buddy larsen:

@Zim “Russia entering Georgia, and all of her behavior since, reek of a country frustrated, angry, whatever and shooting at the first thing that moves”

is that energy generating at the perimeters, or in the center?

Aug 15, 2008 - 11:08 am 315. Konyok:

buddy,

The perverse inversion is that the moral measure for *progressives* is no longer the dignity of human beings. Now it is this ineffable imperative to “save the planet.”

I do think that nationalistic Putinism is a moribund reflex of a dying beast. In part, that is why the world’s media has been so cautious about the Russian claims of genocide and atrocity in SO – the whole scenario is so disjointed from the globalist narrative.
The Al Gore environmental crusade seems to be the new growth tip of totalitarianism and I think that it reveals in young westerners a yearning to be good, moral, obedient sheep without the burden of being complex human beings.

Aug 15, 2008 - 11:19 am 316. buddy larsen:

i mean, at the perimeter, there is NATO, which many say should have begun a stand-down and slow dismantling upon the dissolution of USSR. But, NATO did do that, hardware-wise. So maybe the problem is in the Kremlin itself, and there is little the west can do but try to –here we go again –contain.

BTW, its the Crimea more so than Ukraine –as a way of framing mentally. The Crimean War was a big deal –very severe and harsh. Began over a France vs Russia dispute over the certain protocols having to do with Palestine. Gave the west a major icon of duty, honor, bravery, and deadly futility, “The Charge of the Light Brigade”.

Aug 15, 2008 - 11:22 am 317. neolex:

@Konyok

Yes, Al Gore’s statement is essentially a variation of the current Chinese Olympic motto (also previously used by HerbaLife for its brainwashing events): One world, one dream. The idiocy of this motto is not appearant to Chinese leaders (http://en.beijing2008.cn/17/74/article212027417.shtml), or for majority of people for that matter, who would probably find the frightenengly Orwellian statement to be a sentiment of unity and peace (which it is, but at what cost?).

Aug 15, 2008 - 11:25 am 318. Sid:

Aether:

“My team just signed a large contract with a Chinese customer, that we’ve been negotiating for roughly a year.”

Now the negotiating can really start.

Aug 15, 2008 - 11:29 am 319. Aether:

Konyok:

“The perverse inversion is that the moral measure for *progressives* is no longer the dignity of human beings. Now it is this ineffable imperative to “save the planet.””

This Environmentalism BS is simply another tool that the progressives (watermelons) attempt to to utilize to impose their socialist vision on America. The “Hammer and Anvil” if you will.

Aug 15, 2008 - 11:32 am 320. Konyok:

Crimea especially resonates for Russians.
Sevastopol is known as the “Hero City,” it withstood a German siege from Oct. ‘41 to June ‘42. The whole peninsula is dotted with memorials to Crimean War, Russian Civil War and WW II battles.
It would be the most likely flashpoint between Russia and Ukraine.

Aug 15, 2008 - 11:32 am 321. neolex:

“A Russian military convoy advanced to within 55 km (34 miles) of Tbilisi on Friday, a Reuters witness said, in the deepest incursion since conflict with Georgia erupted last week.

The advance by some 17 armored personnel carriers (APCs) and about 200 soldiers coincided with a visit by U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to secure Georgia’s signature on a French-brokered peace plan to end the fighting.”

This is less than I drive to work every day. Russia is completely insane. It seems that it actually itching for a fight with US. I realy do not understand what they are doing.

Aug 15, 2008 - 11:34 am 322. buddy larsen:

@Konyok: “…it reveals in young westerners a yearning to be good, moral, obedient sheep without the burden of being complex human beings” –yep i think so too.

the ‘perverse inversion’ theme perfectly revealed in the fact that the subjects themselves would not, as in days of yore hotly disagree, but rather would happily concur with the sentence as it is — “yes, the future will be unsustainable unless we de-complex it by simplifying ourselves beyond romantic notions of individualism, and besides as sheep what we don’t know won’t hurt us.”

–the truth is showing up in cartoons already, pied pipers and unicorns and little furry mammals in colors of purple and pink.

Aug 15, 2008 - 11:40 am 323. Rufus:

Poland is not a “done deal.” The Treaty still has to be ratified by both Governments. That’s why the Russian is still threatening.

Aug 15, 2008 - 11:40 am 324. Aether:

“Poland is not a “done deal.” The Treaty still has to be ratified by both Governments. That’s why the Russian is still threatening.”

And those Threats will push the Poles in which direction ?

Aug 15, 2008 - 11:42 am 325. neolex:

Also, Russian marines in Crimea were put on high alert. Could it be that Russia is gearing up to take over Georgia and is just waiting for a window (obviously it can’t do it with any foreign leaders there)? Or, in a scarier, but very far-fetched scenario, begin an operation against Ukraine, explaining it by Ukraine sending weapons with which Genocide was committed by Georgia.

Aug 15, 2008 - 11:44 am 326. Konyok:

Can you cite that, neolex?
I think maybe I ought to call some folks.

Aug 15, 2008 - 11:48 am 327. Extraneus:

That Poland thing has probably tweaked Putin big-time. If he’s worried that there’s more to come if he can’t scare the rest of them out of it first — and he must be — he might calculate that punishing Georgia severely while we stand lamely by is his best move. He’s already invested the price he’ll pay for perfidy, so there’s not much downside on that front, but he still has to place his bet on Bush’s response.

Aug 15, 2008 - 11:51 am 328. Extraneus:

Poland is not a “done deal.”

Thanks. I didn’t realize that, and hadn’t seen it mentioned in the reports, but it make sense that it’s a “treaty” and would have to be ratified.

Aug 15, 2008 - 11:55 am 329. Konyok:

neolex,

Or, possibly, responding to “popular feelings” in the Autonomous Republic of the Crimea.

They don’t have the defending-Russian-passport-holders excuse, though. During the dissolution Ukraine made everybody choose their passport and does not allow dual citizenship with any other country.

Aug 15, 2008 - 11:58 am 330. neolex:

@ Konyok

http://www.unian.net/rus/news/news-267410.html

Aug 15, 2008 - 12:02 pm 331. buddy larsen:

@extraneous –”He’s already invested the price he’ll pay for perfidy, so there’s not much downside on that” –crucial point –

Aug 15, 2008 - 12:02 pm 332. Charles:

neolex:

“Wherever there is Russians, there is trouble.”

I disagree with that. You have US and Israel as examples. Russian community in US, is extremely hard working and fairly successfuly (except in political sphere, which shows Russians are completely unused to democratic institutions and social responsibility).

In Israel, Russians have really rejuvenated the country economically. Mass immigration of Russian Jews into Israel was a blessing for it. It has to be noted, that most Russians in US and Israel are, in fact, Jews, but that changes little as they are still carriers of the USSR culture.
////////////////
Neolex

For a good lesson on how the bible is relevant to the world we live in — its helpful to notice that the jewish experience with communist soviet union in the 20th century maps over pretty well with the the jewish experience with egypt from joseph to moses in +-2400 bc.

Aug 15, 2008 - 12:05 pm 333. Mark Maps:

@Neolex:

My take: Putin is desperate to drive up the price of oil and gold. I’d bet a year’s pay he’s dumbfounded that his activities have resulted in lower prices rather than a super-spike. He keeps playing the same song, thinking the dancers will return to the dance floor. They market’s telling him: the room is now empty, Vlad; so give it up. We’ll know how quickly he learns by how many of these threats he continues making into an empty room.

Aug 15, 2008 - 12:06 pm 334. neolex:

@extraneus

Possibly, but he is risking crossing more and more lines in the EU leadership, thus making eventual measures against Russia more severe. It is possible that he is obsessed with a zero-sum concept, thinking that the more damage he can do to Georgia, the better it is for Russia, but I doubt it.

Aug 15, 2008 - 12:09 pm 335. fedya:

Can anyone say whether the term “siloviki” is really current among Russians or does that reporter (yulia latinina) get credit for an excellent neologism?

It is not found in my Russo-Engrish didactionaries and женщина русская мая never heard of it, though she understood it immediately

“sil” = “strong”; “silovik” sounds like convict slang for “big bad boss”, right? Maybe it’s pro-democracy dissident slang, no? Or should we consider any dissident slang to be a subset of convict slang in general?

…or in Generals?

Let us never forget Solzhenitsin, Sakharov, Anna P. and countless others living or fallen. And if they have cool slang, let’s use it, too!

Aug 15, 2008 - 12:11 pm 336. buddy larsen:

Mark, he’s scaring people into the Dollar –and it is the sheer power of the Dollar move up that is trashing commod prices –my guy sez –he did this in a lull of slack demand –otherwise, superspike.

That is, above would apply if invasion was indeed ab/ oil prices –which i don’t think –it’s too big for that –plus he has 600 bbl in foreign reserves and no debt problems.

Aug 15, 2008 - 12:11 pm 337. Charles:

neolex:

An excellent recent example of extremely successful and brilliantly conducted cyberwarfare was the initial stages of Anonymous campaign against scientology. I think there are a lot of lessons to be learned from it.
//////////////
I thought the german ban on the scientologists was misguided too. They’re ahead of the california too in cracking down on home schooling. bad stuff.

Aug 15, 2008 - 12:12 pm 338. neolex:

@Mark Maps

I doubt price of oil is such major a factor for Putin to go such an extreme. Russia has always anticipated the possibility of lower oil prices. That’s the whole rationale behind creation of Stabilization Fund of $157b (in addition to desire to get kickbacks from its’ investment).

Aug 15, 2008 - 12:12 pm 339. DanM:

Finally got that lead on the CNN clip of drunk Russian soldiers outside Tblisi.

Link

Aug 15, 2008 - 12:17 pm 340. neolex:

@fedya

Yes, the term is in common usage in Russia, and is very common in current Russian lexicon dealing with politics. The best way I can translate it is siloviki are generals (or other heads of military or intelligence agencies) who have a certain amount of political will to exert. ON a sidenote, Latinina is awesome.

Aug 15, 2008 - 12:18 pm 341. Charles:

neolex:

@extraneus

Possibly, but he is risking crossing more and more lines in the EU leadership, thus making eventual measures against Russia more severe. It is possible that he is obsessed with a zero-sum concept, thinking that the more damage he can do to Georgia, the better it is for Russia, but I doubt it.
//////////////
more likely the Russians just think that this area is their near abroad where they have a historical right to act in their own interest just as say –the french do when they send troops to various african former colonies.

I’m not saying that I agree.

Aug 15, 2008 - 12:19 pm 342. DanM:

Azerbaijanis say there is an American base near Senaki.

Link

Aug 15, 2008 - 12:22 pm 343. fedya:

@Konyok:
They don’t have the defending-Russian-passport-holders excuse, though. During the dissolution Ukraine made everybody choose their passport and does not allow dual citizenship with any other country.

Whoa! So what happened to the Crimeans who chose Russian passports? Did some of them stay?

Aug 15, 2008 - 12:23 pm 344. lc:

how about siloviki = capo, short for caporegime (a captain in the Mafia)

Aug 15, 2008 - 12:25 pm 345. DanM:

Not that I’m exactly stuck on stupid, but…. Radio Free Europe interview with U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs.

excerpt:

RFE/RL: Some experts believe that the West does not realize that if Georgia came under Russian control, it would allow Russia to create a wider common strategic space that would unite Russia and Iran, and end in the Gulf. So in a way, the recent actions are an encouragement for Iran to pursue similar prospects. Can any connection be drawn between the recent events in the Caucasus and Russia’s poor cooperation with efforts to resolve the Iranian problem?

Bryza: I don’t know. I think this decision to invade Georgia and try to overthrow its democratically elected leadership was one of the most ill-advised and simply stupid decisions in my career in foreign policy, and it is a mistake that is probably as devastating to Moscow’s reputation as the disastrous invasion of Afghanistan. There must have been a number of motivations floating around in an uncoordinated way for a decision to be made that was this bad, this poorly thought out, and this damaging to Russia. So I don’t know what role Iran played in this.

I know that in the past, and especially in the energy sector, Russia has openly talked about plans to establish a gas cartel with Iran. And I know that for years Russia has tried to buy the North-South pipeline that is here in Georgia. We worked very hard for this purchase not to happen, because clearly Russia was trying to link up its gas system through Armenia — where there is a pipeline link to Iran — to Iran, where Gazprom has an investment which has failed to produce much gas. So it’s obvious what Russia was trying to do with pipelines: it was trying to establish a gas cartel, and move gas from South Pars, in a country that is trying to develop nuclear weapons, through Armenia, through Georgia, into Russia, and deepen its monopoly over the European gas market. That, in my mind, is a fact. But I don’t think that that was the consideration motivating this strategic blunder.

Aug 15, 2008 - 12:27 pm 346. buddy larsen:

They have a lease until 2012 or 2017 on the naval base.

Aug 15, 2008 - 12:27 pm 347. 2x4:

Sila = Power. Silovik = someone acting from a position of power, but it seems that there is a specifically negative, brutal aspect implied. The closest analogy I can come up with would be a “bully”, or a “goon”.

Aug 15, 2008 - 12:39 pm 348. buddy larsen:

They were deep into this hydrocarbon cartel-building and its related incredibly irresponsible nuclear weapon deal with crazy mullahs of Iran long before the topic of east Europe missile defense was ever broached.

Aug 15, 2008 - 12:40 pm 349. Konyok:

fedya,

They had to go to Matyushka Rossiya.

Y’know, the more I think about it the fishier this whole Russian passport issue becomes.
The Soviet system, which was inherited by Russia, Ukraine and probably most of the other independent states, doesn’t have a unitary “passport” like we think of. In general usage, “passport” means your identity papers (they don’t use driver’s licenses like we do). I’m not sure, but I think that resident aliens have to get an internal passport of the country in which they reside. (Any expats in FSU countries to set us straight?) An external passport that allows the holder to travel to different countries is a different thing. The applicant must explain why it is needed, and, I think it must be renewed for each trip. (The infamous “exit visa” of Soviet times.)

A Russian citizen in Ukraine wouldn’t have the right to a work permit and would have to lavishly grease palms for a business permit, so, aside from employees and dependents of the Russian military in Sevastopol, there aren’t very many resident Russian citizens living there.

Aug 15, 2008 - 12:41 pm 350. Charles:

OT: The dutch can’t reproduce themselves. Nevertheless, Netherlands Recognises Polygamous Marriages of Muslims

Aug 15, 2008 - 12:41 pm 351. exhelodrvr:

neolex,
“It seems that it actually itching for a fight with US”

Could be that’s what they want everyone to think.

I am guessing that they think we hope that they will back down, but if they can make us fear that they won’t back down, they think we will back down rather than fight.

Aug 15, 2008 - 12:42 pm 352. 2x4:

Ah, ok, I stand corrected. It would be then a big honcho goon.

Aug 15, 2008 - 12:43 pm 353. Pascal:

Konyok @ 10:53AM It’s a new paradigm…. Now, we have a perverse inversion in which the heirs of humanism seek to sacrifice the human being to a faceless god of nature.

Yes. However it is not new except to those who have only begun to notice. About those who remain silent after they notice — well — I ribbed Wretchard after he posted Meeting Engagement with Awakening to Fight Oblivion.

Human sacrifice:
The most common code word for battling human populations now is voiced (though quietly) as “sustainability.” It seems far too many are resignedly welcoming this “meeting engagement.”

Sustainability is newspeak for a pessimism at least as old as paganism with its ritual deaths.

I think the disease is clear. Traditional conservatives have let their loathing to fight what has slowly become common practice trump their fundamental (now ancient) moral view that the sole reason for governments is to grant legal authority for the strong to protect the weak.

It is THAT paradigm which has shifted. I’ve stated this new world paradigm as “The strong must protect the useful from the _____.”

I’d say you are a moral man reflexively rebelling from the effects of Malthusianism blended with Utilitarianism to create the replacement, Godless morality of a “humanist” elite.

Aug 15, 2008 - 12:46 pm 354. Charles:

OT: /14/122071.html”>Census Bureau: Next Gen Minorities May Be New Majority

Thursday, August 14, 2008 4:09 PM

By: Jim Meyers
Ethnic and racial minorities [in USA] will account for a majority of the U.S. population in a little more than a generation, according to new projections from the Census Bureau.

Aug 15, 2008 - 12:46 pm 355. mark_b:

Combined with a fall in oil prices, (due to lower demand) could a rise in the dollar against the ruble and the euro spell big trouble for Iran?

Looking up Iranian Oil Bourse on Wikipedia I see that Iran has stopped accepting dollars for oil.

The date given is December 2007.

The citation linked is from the Russian News & Information agency:

“TEHRAN, December 8 (RIA Novosti) – Iran has stopped selling its oil for U.S. dollars, the Iranian ISNA news agency said on Saturday, citing the country’s oil minister.

“In line with a policy of selling crude oil in currencies other than the U.S. dollar, the sale of our country’s oil in U.S. dollars has been completely eliminated,” ISNA reported Oil Minister Gholamhossein Nozari as saying.

He also said “the dollar is no longer a reliable currency.”

Iran is the world’s fourth-largest crude oil producer. ”

I’ve always wondered why our currency remained stable without the gold standard, a la Adam Smith.

I attributed it to the currency being backed by aircraft carriers and figured we would be in trouble if we demilitarized.

Aug 15, 2008 - 12:47 pm 356. Pascal:

Konyok; I’m not sure what else to tell you.

Here is what one dame whispered to me about my concerns: “You are not alone Pascal; but you may as well be.”

Aug 15, 2008 - 12:51 pm 357. mika.:

Sila = strength
Silnyok = of strength
Kon = horse
Konyok = of horse

Silovik => meaningless uttering by somewhat that doesn’t speak Russian.

Aug 15, 2008 - 12:52 pm 358. Lifeofthemind:

Can anyone get more information about Russian military activity in the Crimea? Can the Ukraine physically shut the Russian Naval base down and say the lease is abrogated? It looks to me that Rumania could pitch in one division to help the Ukraine. Bulgaria and Hungary probably will need to keep their eyes on Serbia.

Aug 15, 2008 - 12:55 pm 359. mika.:

..someone..

Aug 15, 2008 - 12:56 pm 360. 2x4:

I attributed it to the currency being backed by aircraft carriers and figured we would be in trouble if we demilitarized.

I guess that’s a part of it. The other aspect is that it is underwritten by the strength of US economy, which, despite occasional hickups, is still the strongest economy bar none. Luxembourg or Lichtenstein may have a higher per capita GDP (dunno how they get their figures), but if US gets cold, the rest of the world is teetering on pneumonia.

Aug 15, 2008 - 12:57 pm 361. cjm:

the gold standard?! how do you grow an economy through industrial production if the amount of money available to purchase things is limited to the world’s gold supply? you might as well join a cargo cult if you are going to tie your economy to gold.

Aug 15, 2008 - 1:02 pm 362. buddy larsen:

@lifeofmind: someone had to inform me on this, so now i cheerfully inform you: the useage is Ukraine (”the” Ukraine is like the America or the Russia).

Aug 15, 2008 - 1:02 pm 363. 3Case:

bl, Agreed…except the American people are armed sheep, which is the reason for the heavy psyops on numerous against the American sheep. What was it Sun Tzu said?…the great General wins the battle without fighting it?

Aug 15, 2008 - 1:06 pm 364. 3Case:

should read “numerous fronts”

Aug 15, 2008 - 1:08 pm 365. Konyok:

mika,

Konyok – little stallion, little horse

Taken from the wonderful Russian Fairy story Konyok Gorbunok – “The Little Humpbacked Horse.” It was made into one of the most beloved Russian movies.

It’s a variation on the story of the young prince who wins the hand of the beautiful princess. In this case, the prince is a clumsy fool, but he is lucky enough to have this homely, broken down little humpbacked horse with magic powers. The foolish prince gets himself into ridiculous predicaments and always ends up calling out “Oh, little humpbacked horse! Please help me!”
(If you’re of a certain age, you’ll remember “Mr. Wizard. Same deal.)

This is not a political statement, it is a reflection of my perception of the situation at work. It always tickles Russians, who always get it.

It’s about equivalent to a reference to Dorothy or the Cowardly Lion …

Aug 15, 2008 - 1:10 pm 366. Zim:

“Ethnic and racial minorities [in USA] will account for a majority of the U.S. population in a little more than a generation, according to new projections from the Census Bureau.”

44% white
30% Latino
15% AA
10% Asian

What I want to know is the % of followers of the ROP, that’s the only stat that really matters in deciding future stability, well that and the number of Texans.

Aug 15, 2008 - 1:13 pm 367. Forklift:

Solzhenitsyn uses ’siloviki’ as prison slang in his novel The First Circle.

Aug 15, 2008 - 1:14 pm 368. Konyok:

Come to think of it, that suggests a question to ask of suspected disinformation posters:

What is Dorothy’s little dog’s name?

They could google sports questions, but would have to be American to get this one.

Aug 15, 2008 - 1:17 pm 369. Pascal:

FYI.
I didn’t expect comment 12:51 to post before something I posted to Konyok at 12:46. This was the first time a post of mine has been subjected to moderation.

I’m not complaining; This is an apology for me not paying attention.

That’s why the FYI at the top. 12:51 makes little sense without its predecessor, so this is simply to clear that up until (if) 12:46 posts.

Aug 15, 2008 - 1:17 pm 370. Konyok:

It looks like the Russian Marine story doesn’t really mean much. The story says that they have been recalled to barracks and put on “war status,” but nothing about deployment.

Aug 15, 2008 - 1:18 pm 371. mika:

Konyok – little stallion, little horse

==

Yes, Like: komnyok = little rock
But it also means of something, like: komnyok = of rock

Aug 15, 2008 - 1:18 pm 372. David M:

The Thunder Run has linked to this post in the – Web Reconnaissance for 08/15/2008 A short recon of what’s out there that might draw your attention, updated throughout the day…so check back often.

Aug 15, 2008 - 1:22 pm 373. neolex:

@Konyok

Being put on high alert does not mean deployment. However, the act itself is interesting, as it implies that Russians either plan to introduce additional forces into the theater (for what?) or is trying to scare the West that it might.

Aug 15, 2008 - 1:23 pm 374. neolex:

@mika

Please, spare everyone completely incorrect translations. Neither Silnyok nor Komnyok are words in Russian.

Aug 15, 2008 - 1:30 pm 375. Konyok:

Or leaking that they’re on high alert.
Interesting timing, too. On Friday, after the Russian stock exchange has closed. There almost seems to be a rhythm to these things.
I was wondering if it was the western news cycle, but this Unian story belies that.

Aug 15, 2008 - 1:31 pm 376. nichevo:

“Aether:

“Poland is not a “done deal.” The Treaty still has to be ratified by both Governments. That’s why the Russian is still threatening.”

And those Threats will push the Poles in which direction ?
Aug 15, 2008 – 11:42 am”

Wasn’t it the Poles they tell this joke about:

– You have a gun and two bullets. There is a German and a Russian. Who do you shoot first?

– The German. Business before pleasure.

Poland and Russia go waaaaay back. Long before Hitler and the Katyn Forest. Poland wants only two things when dealing with Russia: a hammer and a stake.

Now Poland has been known for massively dysfunctional and corrupt governments (viz., the medieval Sejm required total unanimity on a vote; one member alone could veto any measure) in the past, and I don’t know how it is now – I have heard people (I forget who) call the Kaczynski brothers madmen; so maybe government could somehow be subverted;

but the PEOPLE? No, they have old-fashioned senses of patriotism, and they also don’t have a society where they have to say that ironically. Poland is pleasantly mad-dog in this way.

Remember that not only are they an ally now, in WWII they not only formed an exile government, they also preserved armed formations which were present at such little historical backwaters as the Battle of Britain and D-Day. Bletchley Park also owes a debt to Polish mathematicians.

Oh and then there’s King Sobieski at Vienna…

No, they’re not big on laying down and dying…

Like I said, if you wanted to sweeten the deal any more for them, offer ‘em nukes and an army corps. As it is I hope the arrangements being made are sufficient. Could the Polish army have kept the Russians out of Georgia? Can it keep ‘em out of Poland? (What do they need to help with that? They certainly have the right aircraft, viz., ours.)

This also sends a useful signal to Ukraine.

…

I would be more worried about the Democratic Congress, or heaven help us an Obambi administration, fouling up the deal. Maybe saying all their tanks had to be solar powered hybrids or some such crap.

Worry about Czechoslovakia, oops, I mean Chechia, right? Now THEIR populace seems to be a little wobbly about the radar. Maybe everybody with balls was murdered in ‘68, or back in the forties, but who knows, maybe they just like Russia better. I hear a surprising amount of bear-licking from Slovenians actually, but that’s a different story…

But I think Poland is on board with the rockets. Now all they have to do is find oil.

Aug 15, 2008 - 1:33 pm 377. Aether:

44% white
30% Latino
15% AA
10% Asian

So what ? My two, non-white, best friends are just as much middle class Americans as I am, with 250 years of American lineage.

More to the point they consider themselves to be first American, second middle class, and whatever else is a distant third.

ahh yes, The power of the melting pot!

Aug 15, 2008 - 1:36 pm 378. mika:

neolex,

Kamnya = rock
Kamnyi = rocks
Kamnyok = small rock (term of endearment), of a rock

Aug 15, 2008 - 1:37 pm 379. matt:

Russians fire upon Turkish journalist car hitting one in the head – Video:
http://tinyurl.com/5zkn7d

Aug 15, 2008 - 1:39 pm 380. neolex:

lol @mika

It’s Kamen’, Kamni, Kameshek (term of endearment).

Aug 15, 2008 - 1:56 pm 381. Konyok:

neolex,

I was scratching my head. Did he mean Serbo-Croatian or sumthin’ …? (But, even then you’d expect the gender to remain the same.)

Aug 15, 2008 - 2:00 pm 382. mika.:

matt,

That looks to me like another Paliwood production.

Aug 15, 2008 - 2:00 pm 383. mika.:

neolex, sinok, ti minya ni oochi.

Aug 15, 2008 - 2:03 pm 384. neolex:

I think mika just wanted to figure out who here knows Russian and who doesn’t. Could’ve just asked.

Aug 15, 2008 - 2:03 pm 385. Ghoullio:

I have been a long time reader and this is my first post. Thank you all for the amazing insight I receive here at BC.

Since Russia’s incursion into Georgia involves oil and gas, or at least energy of some sort, does anyone else find the deafening silence of Ahmadinejad and Chavez just a little suspicious? Its been quiet on the Israeli front as well. Its like all of the Usual Suspects are holding their breaths waiting for their turn to play their card…

Aug 15, 2008 - 2:04 pm 386. mark_b:

Aether:

That “melting pot” is what struck me the most at the Olympic Opening Ceremony.

The US team was by far the most diverse group present. Rewarding excellence is the form of “Affirmative Action” that I would like to see practiced more.

Aug 15, 2008 - 2:05 pm 387. neolex:

@mika

minya -> menya

Sorry, for threadcapping, will ignore him from now on.

Aug 15, 2008 - 2:06 pm 388. Peterike:

The Obama Whitehouse handles the Georgia crisis, as presented in a great editorial cartoon.

http://www.investors.com/editorial/cartoons/CartoonPopUp.aspx?id=303422625281066

HT to PowerLine.

Aug 15, 2008 - 2:06 pm 389. bobal:

Russia is a malbirthed two headed calf. One head beautiful, the other ugly. The beautiful head is fed the milk, but the ugly head spits it out, every time, so it dies. For a brief time there it looked like the milk might go down, and the calf live, but no, the ugly head spat it out again. An Augustinian anthropology without a redeeming theology. The worst outlook on mankind.

Aug 15, 2008 - 2:07 pm 390. JB:

Yeah, ‘Kamnya’ is one of the cases of the nominative ‘Kamen’. Russian nouns have six cases.

Aug 15, 2008 - 2:08 pm 391. neolex:

@Ghoullio

Chavez doesnt want US responding to Russia by staging a coup or invading Venezuela
Ahmadinejad does doesnt want US to bomb Iranian nuclear sites.
Israel has said that it’s freezing arm shipments to Georgia. Doesn’t want to anger Moscow and deal with more Russian weapons in hands of Arabs.

Aug 15, 2008 - 2:10 pm 392. Konyok:

Actually, kamyen’ is one noun whose root does not collapse. The singular genitive case of kamyen’ is kamenya.

Aug 15, 2008 - 2:11 pm 393. fedya:

@DanM:
Azerbaijanis say there is an American base near Senaki.

If there is an organized base with American forces deployed in Senaki, well, that bodes well for our Georgian friends. Senaki controls the rail lines from the ports Poti to the West and Sukhumi [in Abkazia] to the North. It becomes an excellent tripwire preventing Russia from controlling the very long flatland corridor from Poti up to somewhere short of Gori.

If the Georgians can secure a line North-East from Zugdidi and on up the Enguri River, they can contest for “Upper Abkhazia”.

But, if they have to fall back to Senaki, well, they still command the central corridor, keep options open in the port of Poti and control the excellent rail line from the port of Batumi all the way up to somewhere shy of Gori (would go all the way to Baku if the Russkies didn’t control Gori).

Their next fall back would be Samtredia which controls rail from Batumi in the South.

Everything is flat from Batumi (south coast) to Sukhumi (north coast), from Poti (west coast) past Samtredia to Ktaisi. Ktaisi is the terminus of the Czarist military road direct to North Ossetia via Tkibuli, Oni and the Mamison Pass.

So, the Russians have a huge armour deployment in Abkhazia on the north-west corner of this Armeggidon-like billiard table.

If we challenge Russian air, at least over Georgian-occupied Georgia, they will have to stay bottled up in Abkhazia to avoid a Saddamite turkey-shoot. Even so, Abkhazia won’t be Georgian again for a very long time; Russia now has her alternate to Sebastopol.

Congratulations, Vladchika!

If Russia controls the air, the whole plain and all the ports are hers for the taking.

The next fall back, moving East, is Zestafoni which guards the river and rail northward up to Sakhere. Even though the core valley flatland becomes very narrow, it is still good terrain for moving large quantities of armour rapidly.

Between Zestafoni and
Kashuri, the Greater and Lesser Caucasus “French-kiss”. No one will move much armor–except by rail there–which explains the importance of the military road from Roki to Gori and how it is that Georgia saved herself by delaying the Russkies at that “Ossettian” garrison town.

Gori controls two narrow East-West valleys. The Northern one travels farther East than Tbilisi and effectively cuts Eastern Georgia off from The Greater Caucasus northward.

If Georgia can hold a line between Kaspi (astride the two valleys), Dusheti, and Mt. Kazbek, then she keeps the “Ossettians” bottled up in Leningori (Akhalgori) and denies the fourth Czarist military road (bring yer oxygen tanks) from the north.

If that line falls, so goes Tbilisi.

What remains, though, is the entire Lesser Caucasus. There are Turkish and Georgian highland (understatement, but some of it is sorta flattish) routes communicating “directly” from Batumi
to mountains controlling the Russian military rail line from their base in Gyumri, Armenia (if Georgia-Turkey chose to make incursions).

The center of the Georgian Lesser Caucasus is controlled by the rail line from Kashuri most of the way up the the Goderzdi Pass. Borzhomi connects the Western and Eastern mountain routes and opens to Kashuri. Perhaps Borzhomi is the single most critical point to defend if Georgia is forced to retreat into the Lesser Caucasus.

Brozhomi would be a great honey-pot to sucker the Russkies into attacking, if one really wanted to see them get ground up.

Lord knows, I love Google Earth!

Aug 15, 2008 - 2:17 pm 394. Extraneus:

Didn’t look like that to me. More like some shooting of innocent people.

Aug 15, 2008 - 2:18 pm 395. nichevo:

Israel has said that it’s freezing arm shipments to Georgia. Doesn’t want to anger Moscow and deal with more Russian weapons in hands of Arabs.

…

The only redeeming thing about such a craven proclamation is for it to be a polite fiction. It may be necessary but it is less than heartwarming.

Aug 15, 2008 - 2:22 pm 396. Lifeofthemind:

@buddy larsen
If it is The Bronx then the definite article should be considered a compliment anywhere.
The world was a better place when we didn’t worry about what folks in foreign places called things. The Brittanica had a collection of scholars at Oxbridge and Chicago and they decided what the world was like. Now everyone in the world gets to tell everyone else what they think the truth is. Not sure this is an improvement.

Aug 15, 2008 - 2:23 pm 397. Ghoullio:

@neolex

That has never stopped Chavez in the past. Perhaps the rising Dollar has taken them off their guard? Its just curious to me that the Axis of Weasels are being so silent at a time when things are coming together, for the most part anyhow, so well for the West.

Aug 15, 2008 - 2:25 pm 398. Lifeofthemind:

@fedya,
What about the connection between Abkhazia and Russia proper? Is it just a rail line along the coast that can be interdicted? Are there bridges and mountain cliffs? Is it a wide opening to the North that can’t be bottled up? In other words without free access to Sevastapol by land and sea can the Russians sustain an army South of the Caucasus?

Aug 15, 2008 - 2:31 pm 399. Pascal:

Konyok. <a target=”blank” href=”http://pascalfervor.blogspot.com/2008/08/pascal-your-comment-is-awaiting.html”Try this. That is what should have posted at 12:46PM in response to your 10:53AM.

Aug 15, 2008 - 2:33 pm 400. Ghoullio:

Russian support for Iran sanctions at risk amid Georgia rift http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/0815/p10s01-wome.html

Is this just an attempt by Russia to buy more time for Iran? Does Russia hope to receive a return on their $800 million investment in the form of a nuclear military alliance to counter the inevitable Ballistic Missle Shield allince?

Aug 15, 2008 - 2:34 pm 401. mika.:

Extraneus,
Innocent Turks, French youth, Fox News has done its job on you.

Aug 15, 2008 - 2:39 pm 402. Pascal:

Konyok. Try this. That is what should have posted at 12:46PM in response to your 10:53AM.

Aug 15, 2008 - 2:41 pm 403. fedya:

@Lifeofthemind:
…connection between Abkhazia and Russia proper? …can be interdicted?

Can be interdicted at cost of starting WW-17, whatever number is next. Not likely to happen. I’d say we are back in the “Cold” War, atl least until we bleed the Russkies to the edge of collapse.

Russia collapsing would be very, very bad for everyone, especially the Russians, but us, too.

Getting Russia out of “Ossettia” is necessary for keeping the pipelines open and both our Trans-Caucasian friends fit and free. It seems to me that Abkhazia sits on the new Fulda Gap (i.e. open road for massive Russian infantry and armor invasion).

Unlike the Fulda Gap, the Trans-Caucasian gap doesn’t lead to Paris, just 77 quadrazillions of giga-somethings of gas and oil.

Hmmm. “cold” war, indeed. Somewhat further East.

Aug 15, 2008 - 2:53 pm 404. Lifeofthemind:

@fedya
Accidents happen. bridges fall down in the night, earthquake prone country you know, cliff faces tumble. I’m not talking about conventional airpower here, at least not unless things get much worse. Still if Ivan can be convinced that he best get his exposed ass back over the mountains all the better. Arranging a collapse on the tunnel without fingerprints may be trickier. I gather that these two narrow choke points are all that supplies the Russian army. They do not have the sustainability for force projection that the US has. No one else does anymore.

Aug 15, 2008 - 3:04 pm 405. fedya:

@Lifeofthemind:

Well, I really don’t know other than to say if we were to trap Russian troops in Georgia, what are we going to do with them? Annihilate them? Starve them until they surrender?

No, this will have to be a “cold” war. A “cold” war is one in which the primary belligerents never attack one another because of mutually assured destruction. The war is then fought using proxies.

Aug 15, 2008 - 3:20 pm 406. Charles:

nichevo:

Israel has said that it’s freezing arm shipments to Georgia. Doesn’t want to anger Moscow and deal with more Russian weapons in hands of Arabs.

…

The only redeeming thing about such a craven proclamation is for it to be a polite fiction. It may be necessary but it is less than heartwarming.
//////////////
No the Israelis have prudently recognized that they don’t have a dog in that fight.

Can anyone clearly define the American Dog from Nose to Tail. If the Dog speaks–give some American history–please no foreign accents.

Aug 15, 2008 - 3:24 pm 407. Lifeofthemind:

@fedya Why then we mount a humanitarian operation and help them go home. If the choke points are cut then they can’t resupply them in place it doesn’t mean they can’t get out. Our job will be restraining the Georgians. We want to get them out so Putin falls and the Cold War ends. When they go they will have to take their fellow travelers with Russian passports with them. We want as few signs pointing to us as possible. About that tunnel, fuel trucks are racing through it with drivers of uncertain sobriety and poor maintenance. If there was a collision the tunnel could be closed for weeks. Not our fault necessarily.

Aug 15, 2008 - 3:30 pm 408. fedya:

@Lifeofthemind:

So, the conclusion would then be that we do force them out of “Ossettia” through suppressing any Russian air power outside Abkhazia. The Georgians are more than capable of chewing up and spitting out the siloviki forces and Russian armor if we (1) give them anti-air and anti-armour missiles, and (2) establish tripwires with American-Turkish-Azeri peacekeeper garrisons in a line from Poti, through Senaki (or more optimistically, through Zugdidi) up into the Greater Caucasus.

The American-Turkish-Azeri tripwire garrisons could be placed in any fallback position available, including the worst case which would be a forward defense perimeter of Borzhomi, a gateway to the Lesser Caucasus.

Aug 15, 2008 - 3:30 pm 409. Konyok:

Aha, Pascal.
Now I get it!
Postmodernism is the piper’s tune.

Aug 15, 2008 - 3:36 pm 410. whiskey:

We are not going to do anything militarily in Georgia — Gates has already ruled that out. Besides, Turkey has sided with Russia, unsurprisingly.

Turkey has forbidden the USN to send any ships into the Black Sea. Turkey controls the Dardenelles and the Turkish government is solidly pro-Russian.

This is not an expression of pan-Slavic identity, to put it mildly, so much as an open alliance by Turkey’s Islamist government with Moscow. An alliance which is supported by the Turkish public, and the military (which is now infiltrated with hardcore Islamists).

If you draw an arc from Turkey, Georgia-Armenia-Azerbaijan, to Iran, that is the pro-Russian/Jihadi alliance. Add Pakistan to the mix as it slides into Taliban/AQ control. This is not an alliance of deep ideological allies, but formed out of basic opposition to the existence of the Western global economy and system. Each member has ambitions and desires.

Turkey probably sees the inherent weakness in Greece and the Balkans and figures it can gobble them up with Russian help. Russia of course has it’s own ambitions in the Balkans, and has it’s view as pan-Slavic/Orthodox protector. Iran and Turkey both have their conflicting desires to rule Central Asia by resurrecting their undead empires. Which in turn conflict with Pakistan’s Pushtun desires to construct THEIR empire.

What the US ought to do is encourage each party to over-reach and betray the other. Turkey to attack the Balkans and conquer at least, Greece, and force Russia’s hand. Iran and Turkey to fight each other over the Central Asian prize, even better if Russia’s in the mix.

Aug 15, 2008 - 3:37 pm 411. fedya:

@Lifeofthemind:

Maybe so in South Ossettia; perhaps the Georgians will be stuck with a scenario like that there.

Abkhazia is completely different. The stakes are much higher, the Russian force is physically huge, and the population has a large proportion of ethnic Russians who murdered (ethnically cleansed) 30,000+ Georgians not too long ago.

Just sayin’, but I don’t think we want the Russian position in Abkhazia to be physically threatened other than for purposes of containment, which will be hard enough to pull off.

Aug 15, 2008 - 3:39 pm 412. Voltimand:

Fox News reports that the cease-fire that the Russians are “going to sign” involves leaving Russian “peacekeeping” troops to remain in place:

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,404194,00.html

This is a ceasfire that gives Russia what it wants, and the U. S. has lost twice: (1) Russian troops are now in Georgian by way of a signed piece of paper; and (2) Russia has made the U. S. blink, which means that Russia will continue to push.

These are gangsters who understand only force and the threat of force. Be prepared for the next move, possibly against Poland which has already been threatened.

We need to make Russia feel pain.

As for the Russophile cybercreeps commenting on this blog, I say to you: If Russia demonstrates on the world stage that it only responds to pain, then I believe that this country is, if pushed hard enough, ready and willing to provide it.

We need to have serious marshalling of units both in the U. S. and elsewhere, moves that are highly visible. I suggest flyovers by planes from carrier attack groups already in the Georgia area as a teaser.

Aug 15, 2008 - 3:41 pm 413. 3Case:

“Now everyone in the world gets to tell everyone else what they think the truth is. Not sure this is an improvement.”

I am sure that it is…whatever the ensuing chaos. For starters, I’d have never made our host’s acquaintance, nor learned so much from/through him, despite, having been, it seems, across the Charles from him back in the day….

Aug 15, 2008 - 3:41 pm 414. fedya:

Ooopsie!
I wrote: “Maybe so in South Ossettia”

Should read: “Maybe so in South “ Ossettia” ”

My bad

Aug 15, 2008 - 3:41 pm 415. Aristide:

@ fedya

Reports: Russian Military Destroying Ammo in Senaki Base
Civil Georgia, Tbilisi / 14 Aug.’08 / 14:06

Russian forces have entered into Senaki seizing Georgia’s main military base there, the Georgian radio reported.

The radio station’s correspondent at the scene said via phone she saw Russian military trucks driving out of the base, apparently taking away remaining ammunition at the base.

She also said that sound of several explosions have also been heard, indicating that some of the ammo were being destroyed.

Meanwhile, in Zugdidi, a Georgian town at the administrative border with Abkhazia, the Russian military commanders demanded from the local authorities and the police to immediately return ammunition, which has been seized from the Russian peacekeepers by the Georgian security forces in June, 2008.

Aug 15, 2008 - 3:41 pm 416. Konyok:

fedya,

Vladchika is pretty good.
I kinda like Volodyonka, too

Meanwhile, I really am serious Belmont Clubbers. The best way that we, as individuals, can materially help the Georgians is to buy their wine. It’s their main export and it is central to their identity as a nation. Putin damaged their industry by banning it from Russia, where it previously had enjoyed universal acclaim.
I’m sure that you can find it at any large liquor mart and your local store will stock it if you bug them enough.

Aug 15, 2008 - 3:41 pm 417. jdwill:

Holy crap! This could be awkward:

http://tigerhawk.blogspot.com/2008/08/relying-on-russian-taxi.html

Aug 15, 2008 - 3:52 pm 418. bobal:

What the US ought to do is encourage Turkey, a NATO member, to conquer Greece, a NATO member?

None of this war gaming is going to happen.

The US isn’t going into Georgia.

Aug 15, 2008 - 3:56 pm 419. bobal:

Buy some Georgian wine, like the man says, that’s the best we’re gonna do. Drink it off.

Aug 15, 2008 - 3:59 pm 420. Brian:

Supply Georgia with all the Russian-made shape-charges and IEDs we’ve captured in Iraq. What goes around comes around.

Aug 15, 2008 - 4:05 pm 421. buddy larsen:

Neil Cavuto show on FBN just winding up, it featured long interviews with both Gary Kasparov (i guess the leader of Putin opposition) and Shalikashvili in his office just after the Condi signing ceremony. The show re-broadcasts at 8PM CST. It’s worth a watch on many levels. Kasparov despairs over his people, says the Putin oligarchs are looting Russia, that their money is being kept out of Russia, not invested in country, but hoarded “in all the capitals of Europe”. It’s just riveting –as is Shalikashvili’s combination of shock and defiance.

( @lifeofmind –you’re right –i just popped off from the ”labeling” angle, how much power there is in slogans and so forth. “The” Ukraine was common useage for an area inside the USSR, a part of USSR. Then when it went free, there was a big deal made of dropping the ”the” and becoming Ukraine, the free nation. so it’s almost sort of a tag, an emblem –more than just an old fart nitpicking, tho i know it sounded that way )

Aug 15, 2008 - 4:08 pm 422. fedya:

@Aristide:

Well, we’re going to be forced to tell Ivan to stop at some point because the Georgians aren’t going to go quietly. If the Turks don’t step in so Georgia can hold Batumi at the least, just watch the Russkies and the Georgians get forced into a bidding war over services of various Kurdish groups to assist in supplying the Georgians. And if the Armenians and Russians have to neutralize the Azeri’s, watch jihad explode among the Turkmen (the ’stans).

We’ll be a lot better off stopping Ivan somewhere West of the mountains around Zestafoni.

If the Turks don’t jump in now, we’ll know for certain that NATO is worse than dead…

Does anyone know of any Turkish naval movement around Batumi?

Aug 15, 2008 - 4:10 pm 423. NahnCee:

Russia collapsing would be very, very bad for everyone, especially the Russians, but us, too.

Russia’s already collapsed once. They’ve got experience at collapsing. They’re getting good at it.

I don’t remember it being bad at all for America last time they collapsed, and I really don’t see why it would affect us the smallest itty-bitty bit the next time they do it, either.

I’m getting very very tired of having to go around the world cleaning up after other people’s stupid stuff, especially when they’ve just been the day before calling us bad names.

I pine to see Russia collapse again. I long to see Vladimir blushing beet red at his own stupidity. I hope to watch newly-minted Russian billionaires begging for cab fare to get home because they can’t access their bank accounts any more.

And the next time Russia collapses we will *not* be offering aid, assistance, help or sympathy in any way. Let them eat wormy borscht, and die in a snowdrift passed out on really bad vodka.

Aug 15, 2008 - 4:16 pm 424. holdfast:

“Turkey controls the Dardenelles and the Turkish government is solidly pro-Russian.”

I don’t know about the Turkish gov’t but isn’t that an international waterway? Do the Turks really want to commit an act of war against an erstwhile NATO ally? Seems a stretch.

Aug 15, 2008 - 4:30 pm 425. Konyok:

whiskey,

Can you cite something re: the Turks closing the Dardanelles to US ships?

Aug 15, 2008 - 4:33 pm 426. fedya:

Well, DebkaFile sez:
“Russia masses naval force opposite Georgia’s third sensitive region, Ajaria”
I sure hope this is one of the many times Debka is way wrong.

http://www.debka.com/headline.php?hid=5505

Are the FSB trolls right? Are we (USA) going to roll over? Do our civil servants in Washington actually think this is something we can just “let happen”? Why aren’t there any US ships headed toward the Bosporous?

This is WTF?, all over again.

Aug 15, 2008 - 4:33 pm 427. cjm:

isn’t this the perfect pretext for the turkish military to redeem themselves with the u.s. and clean out the political extremists running things non-military? or we can recognize kurdistan and help them neutralize the turkish military. gee, that sounds kind of ruissian, doesn’t it.

Aug 15, 2008 - 4:35 pm 428. Ledger:

Although I don’t like it, I think it maybe time to retool Gen. Lemay’s Strategic Air Command with its powerful delivery systems and nukes.

Given Putin’s power grab and his General’s threats to NATO, we may have to gear up Gen. Lemay’s feared Strategic Air Command with all of its weapons and delivery systems.

Apparently, Putin dumped the “honor system” in the can. The guy cannot be trusted – except to consolidate his power. The only thing he understands is force.

Aug 15, 2008 - 4:36 pm 429. Doug:

ThreatsWatch.Org – Russia BTC Pipeline is ‘Dead’
—
Turkish official confirms BTC pipeline blast is a terrorist act

Aug 15, 2008 - 4:38 pm 430. Paul from Hollywood:

From Hot Air:

• “company sized units( with a dozen armored vehicles) took up a position in the village of Igoeti, 15 miles from Tbilisi.

Looks like we need something a little more threatening than “humanitarian aid”.

• Condi allowed “limited partrols ” by Russian Troops beyond Ossetia in Georgia in the latest cease fire agreement.

Unbelievable. Condi and Gates seem determined to wimp out and screw things up.

Vlad the Invader has just called and raised Bush. Either Bush or Vlad has to back down. It had better not be Bush.

If Turkey did side with Russia in face of threatening actions where US Troops are involved, can they be expelled from NATO? Or is NATO just done at that point?

The news media is making very little of a very dangerous situation. Russian troops are advancing on a city being supplied with American Humanitarian aid and there is almost no news about it.

Aug 15, 2008 - 4:42 pm 431. buddy larsen:

It’s not quiet out there at all (ref to upthread exchange). Russia’s move is being saluted in several places –big trouble in Kashmir, some leader shot dead, FARC has set off a bomb in Colombia to hurt our ally Uribe (as if Pelosi hasn’t done enough), Chavez is shooting off his mouth, jihadis have blown up some people in Somalia (i think the Jordanian king was making a state visit tho i only heard part of the report), Achmadenijade visiting Turkey, Erdogan visiting Moscow, Centcom announcing identification of four different locations inside Iran where Iraqi shiites are being trained for re-entry into Iraq as assassination teams with specific targeting of government leaders and US troops, and the biggie, Musharraf being forced out in Pakistan, in favor of whom we apparently have no notion –though i’m afraid we can probably assume it won’t be anyone anti-jihad/Taliban/AQ/soviet. This is a first-class mess, all of a sudden.

Aug 15, 2008 - 4:44 pm 432. fedya:

OK, it looks like the wild card is Turkey.

At first I thought “whiskey’s” rant about Turkey being anti-US and pro-Russian to be an incalculably bizarre raving of one of several distinct personalities, Jekyll, Hyde, Molotov, whoever. After all, Turkey is in NATO. Turkey hosts us at Incyrlik. Turkey has more to fear from Russia than any other force.

If reality matches Whiskey’s ravings in any regard, then the game truly is up for us. We’ll be f**king done for, likewise our Eastern European pals, lots of big boats and no place to dock them.

On the other hand, maybe Whiskey is more than one poster, or totally schizzy, or …?

I guess the line would go like this: Turkey and Iran are partnering to squash the pesky Kurds and the pesky Arabs in Iraq.

My best guess: if a part of the government of Turkey is able to countenance such BS, a civil war in Turkey is not far away from now…

Aug 15, 2008 - 4:47 pm 433. cjm:

chaos produces change. and provides cover.

Aug 15, 2008 - 4:54 pm 434. buddy larsen:

i’m like you fedya, i almost threw up when i read that –where is the link? Turkey is the foundation of the region –if it goes we’ll be lucky to even escape from the region –much less hold it in the free world –

Aug 15, 2008 - 4:55 pm 435. Raki:

Perhaps the US could stop the Russian troops in their tracks using something else besides force: If candy bombers helped the US win the Berlin airlift, then maybe vodka bombers (targeting the Russian troops) could win the Tbilisi airlift.

Aug 15, 2008 - 4:56 pm 436. Doug:

Buddy,
They were ingenious enough to become part of the 59th State.

Aug 15, 2008 - 4:59 pm 437. buddy larsen:

I think Obama should go talk to them –but maybe the vodka too. and britney –send britney. and Bono.

Aug 15, 2008 - 5:01 pm 438. OCBill:

The four featured stories on the Yahoo! homepage:
- Chinese Olympic gymnasts age flap
- Olympic Star is new heart throb
- Hulk Hogan wins latest legal battle round
- Brain Teasers may be a waste of money

Aug 15, 2008 - 5:03 pm 439. Bob Murphy:

The most important thing we can do on the ground now to pull the Russkies up is to take down some of their planes, preferrably combat aircraft though any military transport landing in Georgia should be fair game. At least 10 planes.
With deniable plausibility, of course.
Their dominance of the air must be challenged. With the Russians air umbrella the Georgians cannot begin to stand up to them.
There are all sorts of light, air deployable anti-aircraft systems that can do the job.
Those systems should be vehicle portable so they can go to the places the Russians are targetting.
Accompanying them should be vehicle borne anti-tank systems because the Russkies also need to lose some tanks. At least 40, perhaps more.
As for the Black Sea Fleet, Israel has wonderful fast torpedo/missile boats. I’d say pics in the press of just one Russian destroyer showing its rusty hull bottom as it slipped beneath the waves would be desirable if they bring their fleet into this conflict, though a bit of damage might be sufficient to challenge, a shot across the bows so to speak.
The technology should be the cheapest most portable type capable of doing the job.
The Georgians might need some trigger pullers for those new weapons systems at first but the higher their involvement the better.
A few of their troops should be back in the sandbox or in a US military base getting trained to operate those systems pronto.
And the next round of students after that should be Ukrainian, and Polish.
We need to get anti-aircraft and anti-tank capability into the armed forces of friendly nations asap.
It might well be impossible to stop a concerted Russkie attack in places like Georgia. But they should not escape unscathed.

Aug 15, 2008 - 5:05 pm 440. cjm:

looks like it’s time to arm some jihadis and point them towards russia.

Aug 15, 2008 - 5:09 pm 441. DanM:

Fedya,

There is one water-born naval asset that we can put in the Black Sea. Re-supply, that would be problematic, though.

Aug 15, 2008 - 5:09 pm 442. Bob Murphy:

Oops. plausible deniability.

It’s been 30 years since I thought of or used that lovely phrase.

Aug 15, 2008 - 5:09 pm 443. DanM:

As a matter of fact, I would be surprised if there aren’t a few (Naval assets)in the Black Sea already…

Aug 15, 2008 - 5:14 pm 444. Bob Murphy:

Nope.
No point in trying a jihad in Russia.
It will implode of its own interenal stresses when it runs out of oil or people (it’s in a demographic death spiral hastened by a shortened life span [45 years?] due to alcoholism).
We have to keep them from spreading the poison but leave them to their own internal devices otherwise I’d reckon.
It’s down to naked nationalism now, no communism fig leaf so their overseas power bases in the communist movement have no stake in this.

Aug 15, 2008 - 5:18 pm 445. buddy larsen:

Turkey’s Gul speaks

Aug 15, 2008 - 5:20 pm 446. fedya:

So, Russian probing forces are supposedly at the edge of the big flatland around Gori, just before Mtskheta-Tbilisi.

They are also rumored to have an armored force moving on Ktaisi, on the edge of the coastal plain and terminus of the Czarist military road to North Ossettia.

Lines are getting extended. Now they are facing Georgians in the mountains.

I sure hate blood but I sure would like to hear of major Russkie defeats. How many anti-air and anti-tank missiles do the Georgians have hidden in the mountains? Is the US just waiting for Russian punitive air raids to get worse before starting overflights?

Or are we witnesses to the beginning of the end of everything worthwhile on this planet?

I’m staying tuned!

Aug 15, 2008 - 5:20 pm 447. Bob Murphy:

There has been co-operation in the past between the Israeli and Turkish militaries I believe.
Would it be possible to use a sanitised Israeli torpedo/missile boat with a small crew to do a job in the Black Sea and scuttle the boat when mission accomplished and evacuate the crew through Turkey?
Torpedo might be better than missile, no aerial tracking and modern homing torpedoes work over the horizon anyway.
Remember the British torpedoing the heavy Argentine cruise Admiral Belgrano from 70 miles away during the Falklands War?

Aug 15, 2008 - 5:24 pm 448. Konyok:

I think everybody should rush down to the emporium right now, buy some nice Georgian wine and then get a grip.

First, are any of these tasty factoids outside of the normal distribution of strangeness? Do we detect a signal, or is it just the normal noise? We have to beware of freaking out over every snapped twig because of our current heightened awareness.

I’m waiting for some ground truth on whiskey’s Dardanelles statement.
Brother Fedya, how would you know whether any US ships are or are not heading towards Georgia?
We don’t know whether Erdogan’s visit to Moscow was planned previously or not. Although not perhaps rising to the level of PM meeting, Turkey and Russia have a lot to talk about right now. I’m sure that the Russians are a bit worried about a number of their ships on the wrong side of the Dardanelles during this crisis. Turkey is probably more than a little concerned about the possibility of the Russians driving Georgian military and civilian refugees into Turkey.
As to Ahmadinejad visiting Turkey, well, they have a common border, dontcha know? This is not prima facie evidence of some grand jihadi alliance.
Turkey is a member of NATO and the Turkish military is the most pro-western institution in the country.

As to a Russian company sized unit on the road to Tblisi, does anybody really think that is the force tasked with assaulting the Georgian capital? I mean, really. They might be bait, but they sure aren’t an existential threat.

It is 4:30 am in Georgia. We’re all on edge and starved for fresh news.

Aug 15, 2008 - 5:24 pm 449. cjm:

the way to sink russian boats is with russian torpedoes and missiles.

Aug 15, 2008 - 5:25 pm 450. Konyok:

buddy,

Thanks for the Gul piece. That IS sobering.

I wonder what Turkey’s generals are thinking …

Aug 15, 2008 - 5:28 pm 451. fedya:

It would not be the first time the Guardian got everything exactly in reverse because of its anti-American leftism, but they claim to be quoting Turkey’s Mr. Big:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/aug/16/turkey.usforeignpolicy

Days after Russia scored a stunning geopolitical victory in the Caucasus, President Abdullah Gül of Turkey said he saw a new multipolar world emerging from the wreckage of war.

The conflict in Georgia, Gül asserted, showed that the United States could no longer shape global politics on its own, and should begin sharing power with other countries.

Hell.in.a.handbasket.

Aug 15, 2008 - 5:29 pm 452. Bob Murphy:

It would be mad to use US Navy units in the Black Sea in this instance.
We need dead Russkie tanks, planes and perhaps a ship done with as low a profile as possible.
Some notches on Georgian guns and confusion about exactly who, what, or where the trigger was pulled, or by whom would be perfect.
All that counts now tactically is Russkie bodies in Georgia. Dead ones.
Everything else is just chatter mind.

Aug 15, 2008 - 5:30 pm 453. Konyok:

fedya,

Either the Georgians have evaporated away, or they’ve had a chance to regroup, catch their breaths and deploy the OIF veterans.
The question is, given the “cease fire,” what is their trigger for dropping the hammer on the “peacekeepers?”

Aug 15, 2008 - 5:32 pm 454. buddy larsen:

”I wonder what Turkey’s generals are thinking” –yes.

Aug 15, 2008 - 5:35 pm 455. Bob Murphy:

Gul will do what his perception of reality tells him.
It’s up to us to ensure that reality precludes actions and attitudes on his part inimical to the west.
It took many years for the US to regain any international leverage and credibility after we betrayed the South Vietnamese in 1975 when a Democrat controlled Congress denied them fuel, ammo and air support in the face of invasion by North Vietnam.

Aug 15, 2008 - 5:35 pm 456. buddy larsen:

I think the rus have too much force in-country now –looking for any excuse to smash & grab what they haven’t yet. What good would small unit actions do, but sic an air wing and an armored division onto Tblisi? Without air, it’s a done deal –best to hold the capital, and the government, and see what the next few days bring. i’m kibitzing stupidly here of course.

Aug 15, 2008 - 5:43 pm 457. buddy larsen:

it just totally sucks to be having to worry about Turkey, esp when Rus main pretext is frikken Kosovo for cryin ourt loud.

Aug 15, 2008 - 5:47 pm 458. Bob Murphy:

The point is never to let a bully escape without battle scars. Never to let one escape without knowing he’s been in a stoush and for everyone else to see the marks on him.
We cannot afford to let the world see this is a totally successful operation.
We are in no position to stop them on the ground but we can bring down some of their planes, for a start.
Even the Afghanis were able to do that after we gave them some Stingers.
The Russkies main advantage tactically is air superiority and sheer numbers on the ground.
Deny one, extract a price for the other.

Aug 15, 2008 - 5:49 pm 459. Lifeofthemind:

“Whiskey” is best ignored except for anthropological interest.

@fedya I agree that to the maximum extent possible all seismological events should be inspected by the Georgians, maybe even before they occur.

@buddy larsen no problem, we live in a funny world where people get excited about what other people call themselves, to whit the FYROM, I wouldn’t care if anyone wanted to call their country Brooklyn.

cjm Bob and Dan, The Turks have submarines, so of course do we.

Aug 15, 2008 - 5:51 pm 460. Bob Murphy:

If the truce just signed holds, OK.
But any violation should result in lost aircraft and tanks.
It’s getting a bit late for this round now but we still need to have the capability landed and ready for any violation.
As far as the Russkies are concerned they are unchallengeable on the ground in Georgia now. That is not a good situation for any friend of ours.

Aug 15, 2008 - 5:52 pm 461. Konyok:

I think that Gul’s audience is in Europe. He’s parroting the Chirac rhetoric, like two years too late. Why?
The ironic thing about Gul’s islamic party is that they are committed to joining the EU. The Euros have been tabling the proposal for 3 or 4 years now. Maybe Gul is sending them a message to fish or cut bait.

Aug 15, 2008 - 5:53 pm 462. buddy larsen:

Bob, big difference with Tblisi held hostage under triple threat. different from Afghan. May be what rus learned there.

Aug 15, 2008 - 5:55 pm 463. Konyok:

cjm,

I think you’re right about using Russian weapons to kill Russians. Wouldn’t it be grand to deploy our “Red” squadron … ?

Aug 15, 2008 - 5:55 pm 464. Bob Murphy:

The Israelis have subs too.
I was just suggesting that tactical responses to Russian aggression be handled at the lowest level possible weapons systems-wise.
Plausible deniability is a wonderful thing at times like this.
We’ve seen what the Russians are up to and their MO and now it’s time to help our allies mould their armed forces to handle defense against that type of escapade.
I don’t think anyone knows yet how much damage the Georgians were able to inflict on the invaders but the situation would have been a lot different if they stopped them in their tracks (heheheheheh) even for two weeks to give more time for a western response.

Aug 15, 2008 - 5:56 pm 465. JB:

Konyok@5:53p I think you’re onto something with Gul. Translation: you need us, so step up.

Aug 15, 2008 - 6:03 pm 466. neolex:

6km zone on the Georgian side given to Russians for patrols is a disaster. Rice was a bigger failure than Sarkozy with his “additional security measures”. US has blinked and, therefore, may lose Georgia and, consequently, Ukraine. Russia is trying to gauge situation in Georgia in longer term, while destroying their infrastructure. 6km zone helped them a great deal. Georgians could deal with losing their claims on SO and Abkhazia, but not with Russians on their soil (for indeterminate amount of time). Georgian opposition has already demanded early elections. If Russians see Saakashvili as unlikely to survive in the midterm, they are likely to honor that agreement. Otherwise, we may yet see the taking of Tbilisi. I doubt that US is supplying Georgians with weapons. Otherwise 6km zone would not be a necessary concession.

As to Turkey, they would never close the traits to US. However, they have likely pledged their neutrality if Russia will leave the pipeline intact and maybe for smth else, like Adjaria, should the shit hit the fan. At this point US should start talking to Turkish generals about a coup, before their army is completely subverted. Kurds would be a good backup plan.

Aug 15, 2008 - 6:16 pm 467. Konyok:

neolex,

Where can I read more about this 6km zone?

Aug 15, 2008 - 6:18 pm 468. neolex:

http://www.allheadlinenews.com/articles/7011957527

Aug 15, 2008 - 6:21 pm 469. Mark Maps:

@Konyok:

Gul’s already bowed to US pressure re NatGas pipeline with Iran, which humiliated Akma-dinner-jacket. Gul will see what else he can get from us, but I think Whiskey’s characterization of Turkey siding with Russia is dead wrong:

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gdmglKkfijwZ7VZRq0CMR_eOTH_wD92IA3P80

Aug 15, 2008 - 6:29 pm 470. Konyok:

Interestingly, GoogleEarth has removed the Abkhazia and S. Ossetia borders that they displayed just the day before yesterday. Hmmm …

I wanted to get a feel for the 6km security zone that the Russians can patrol until international peacekeepers arrive, but I can’t.

(Well, I suppose that I could buy the professional edition and search around for some GIS data … )

Mark Maps,

Yeah, I think that Turkey is understandably playing everybody to their best advantage. It’s a tough neighborhood …

Aug 15, 2008 - 6:42 pm 471. neolex:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d28536de-6b2a-11dd-b613-0000779fd18c.html

Also, “until peacekeepers arrive” is a euphemism. At best, there will be monitors like UNOMIG. Russia’s gamble to take Georgia failed. They were lost a lot, by overstepping SO borders, but it was too late, so they decided to use Georgian territory and a threat to Tbilisi as a bargaining chip and settled for waiting for Georgians to get rid of Saakshvili, rather than removing him. We can fully expect the 6km to become Russian in the future, provided it behaves well and honors the agreement. It might even use it later to redeem its future puppets to Georgian population by giving the land back.

Aug 15, 2008 - 6:54 pm 472. exhelodrvr:

Bob Murphy,
“Remember the British torpedoing the heavy Argentine cruise Admiral Belgrano from 70 miles away during the Falklands War?”

That wasn’t from 70 miles away. It was from within “normal” torpedo range. I don’t believe that we have torpedoes with that kind of range (I think the Russians do) but even if you did you wouldn’t want to use them in this type of scenario because it is extremely difficult for the sub to positively identify a target from that far away, without also giving it’s own location and identity away.

Aug 15, 2008 - 6:58 pm 473. Mark Maps:

Konyok,

Who knows, maybe we can get Turkey in the EU as payment, thereby collapsing that house of cards and make the world even safer for democracy in the end. (EU bureaucrats/Putin, two sides of the same coin.)

Aug 15, 2008 - 7:00 pm 474. fedya:

@neolex:
As to Turkey, they would never close the traits to US.

What if we’ve been out-maneouvred in “the Great Game” wherein Iran promised Turkey Most Favored Nation status as Iran’s gateway to the Mediterranean and the Balkans? The quid pro quo is that Muscovitties get the Trans-Causcasus.

They, of course agree to jack up prices to whatever levels they see fit. Shiver yer timbers, Euro-weenies!

Even though Iran is ceding any hope for suzereinty over the ’stans as well as the existing pipe and rail lines to China, they never had a chance on the flatlands of Central Asia against the Muskoviki, anyway. This way they get a compliant client state in Turkey who will be a dependable ally against the Kurds and nestle tenderly in their arms for protection against the said Musk-oxian Horde.

The Chinese have to be horrified to see the Persions and Muscovites divvy up Central Asia, again.

Apart from sending the fabled two million man army to Armeggedon via Urumqi, what are Les Chinois gonna do? Call Musk-busters?

On the other hand, if we let Pooty bloody Georgia while we crush Iran… Turkey will have a lot of crow to eat. Is crow Halal? Not very.

If the Perians and the Muscovites are rolling the dice in the Greatest Gamble of All Time (yet), things will look much bleaker before they look better.

Russia cannot possibly simultaneously engage all the recent escapees. A pro US coalition of Ukraine (see, no “the”), Bulgaria, Georgia and the Azeri’s could make the Turks beg for admission to the Black Sea & Trans-Caucasian Treaty Organization, as a probationary member of course.

That all depends upon our willingness to utterly crush the Iranians and feed the ex-Soviet states the weapons they need to destroy poor mad Ivan “in detail”.

BTW:
Don’t tell my wife I’m talking like this. She was a real Pionirka, fast-tracked to join The Party. Being a true Girl Scout at heart, she declined the offer of inside access to dirty power (which YK membership provided) in favor of living a simple and honest life. She embodies the finest elements of the Russian character–and believes in it–and we will do well to always be quick to recognize and encourage the millions of little Russian “outsiders” living inside Russia under siloviki boot heels.

Aug 15, 2008 - 7:03 pm 475. Konyok:

neolex,

Those are all refugees from S. Ossetia, so they’re not a representative sample of Georgian opinon.

The opposition is calling for early elections, and god only knows what’s been happening in the western part of the country.
But, there’s nothing that spurs tribal solidarity like an external threat and if Saakashvili has been anything he’s been a verbal and insistent advocate of the Georgian tribe.

Aug 15, 2008 - 7:05 pm 476. LDG:

a friendly assist on the off-topic item:

The ARA General Belgrano was taken with two hits by Mk8 torpedoes… a World War II-era weapon, by optical-sight engagement.

hope that helps.

Aug 15, 2008 - 7:05 pm 477. fedya:

should read:
“If the PerSians and the Muscovites”

Aug 15, 2008 - 7:07 pm 478. neolex:

@Konyok

Sorry, wrong link, I just saw article about Georgians being upset at Saakashvili, but cant find it now.

Aug 15, 2008 - 7:11 pm 479. Konyok:

fedya,

Tell the wifey that you’re chatting with Konyok Gorbunok. She’ll giggle …

Don’t be so pessimistic, my friend. We will muddle through, and so will our little wine making buddies. The worst of this thing is over. The Turks don’t have any reason to cozy up with the mullahs. Not only are the shia heretics, but their theocracy is a basket case, soon to unravel. (The Iranian people are really getting pissed. They had an Islamic revolution and all they got was this lousy corrupt mullahcracy … )

Aug 15, 2008 - 7:12 pm 480. Konyok:

It’s dawn, Saturday morning in Georgia.

Aug 15, 2008 - 7:14 pm 481. elijah:

Does unrestricted warfare include financial warfare?
The dollar is a fickle creature, no?

Aug 15, 2008 - 7:15 pm 482. cjm:

iran is nearing total economic collapse, they are in no position to help or hurt anyone. russia is dying by the day. just because the mindless media and chicken littles are hysterical doesn’t mean the real players in the world aren’t fully aware of what real power looks like. here’s a hint, the stars are white, not red. no one is going to help russia; once they implode the world will be very stable.

turkey has one last chance to do the right thing, and then they will be reduced to insignifigance via dismemberment.

Aug 15, 2008 - 7:20 pm 483. neolex:

@fedya

Turkey has an internal secular/islamist conflict, Kurds, who want independence, huge commerce with Europe, and they are a member of NATO. Siding, with Russians is not in their interest. They are cunningly playing both sides by selling their neutrality to each. US should cunningly help military with a coup, promising that it will recognize it, provided it follows certain terms, like provisional non-military govt, elections, etc. This will kill 2 birds with one stone. Edrogan is too smart for his own good.

Aug 15, 2008 - 7:20 pm 484. cjm:

i guess he will be hanged from the smart guy lamp post then

i have a feeling bush will be telling the turkish military how it is, not asking htem their price.

Aug 15, 2008 - 7:27 pm 485. neolex:

Turkish military is not the problem, JDP is. I have a feeling Bush has caved in, otherwise Gates would not take any US military involvement off the table. What a stupid thing to do: limit own options, and preempt any possibility of bluffing.

Aug 15, 2008 - 7:32 pm 486. cjm:

ignore words, watch actions.

Aug 15, 2008 - 7:33 pm 487. fedya:

@Брать Коняк [sp.?],

I accept your kind words of encoragement. Looking forward to disasters is no way to live life!

But now I am sorely conflicted, bro. I just discovered a vintage 2005 Kindzmarauli. OMG! Usually I detest red wines described as “semi-sweet”, but Oy! Ach! Yikes! Wow, what a winner! Complex fruity nose, velvety down the gullet (sorry, my wine manners are a little rough, ya know?)…it makes a statement that cries out for a good cheese board.

So, the Bishop of Norwich can hog the Port all he wants, here’s the superior non-sweet wine that works after dinner, too. Refreshing; lightly tart.

… maybe I should keep the old trap shut and buy it all for myself, he-he-he?

OK, duty first…
It’s 100% Saparevi grapes grown in the Kindzmarauli district of Kvareli, way East of them thar Russkies. Maybe our humanitarian airlift in could airlift out a few container loads of this stuff. Mutual assistance pact, and all that…

Aug 15, 2008 - 7:38 pm 488. cjm:

i love my wife dearly, but when the wine is being poured, it is my glass that fills first.

Aug 15, 2008 - 7:39 pm 489. JewishOdysseus:

@Buddy Larsen: I’m sure you didn’t mean “Shalikashvili,” maybe too much of that nice Georgian wine? ; )

I concluded that Turkey ceased being an “ally” in the true sense of the word at least as far back as 2003. She (both the generals/”pashas” and the Islamists) have been playing a nasty double-game against us all along.

“Nationalist” Turks see themselves as the logical leader of “Turan,” an area that basically stretches from Turkey to western China. Many smart, good people in the US have naively supported Turkey as a “democratic” influence over those countries. It is just an imperial uber-nationalist plan. And recall that Mein Kampf has been a huge seller in Turkey in recent years.

The Islamists of course seek to revive the caliphate.

There are almost no normal power-centers in Turkey…Hence the shameless persecution of writers, journalists, actors, singers…”HOW IS THAT POSSIBLE IN A DEMOCRATIC COUNTRY?”

Exactly.

Turkey has been playing us.

Aug 15, 2008 - 7:45 pm 490. cjm:

yes, they have.

Aug 15, 2008 - 7:47 pm 491. Extraneus:

“I don’t see any prospect for the use of military force by the United States in this situation,” Gates said.

I don’t see how that statement rules anything out. Sure, there probably won’t be the use of US military force, but that’s independent of what he sees the prosepct for, isn’t it?

Aug 15, 2008 - 7:51 pm 492. JB:

Good night, all. I’m sure things will look a whole lot better in the coming days.

Aug 15, 2008 - 7:54 pm 493. fedya:

@neolex:
…Bush has caved in, otherwise Gates would not take any US military involvement off the table.

Too early to tell. If we are in a new “cold war” the number one rule is to always claim we won’t be going mano-a-mano with them, & vice versa (sorta). All fighting has to go through proxies because head to head with the Russkies proves you’re madder than I-madhi-nutjob, and THAT is MAD. What, me worry?

Now blasting bloody hell out of Iran is perfectly gentlemanly and proper in a “cold” war. Russkies can support them indirectly, but we get to beat bloody damned hell out of them without fear of DIRECT Russkie intervention.

Indirect Russkie intervention is another thing. Hence, Georgia.

However, Russia cannot possibly deal with all the escapees from their previous incarnation, and having them tied down in Georgia is a lot better strategically than having them tied down in, say, Latvia, for these perverse reasons:

- that the Euro-weenies would make Latvia’s loss certain,

- the Latvians are likely to fight with less ferocity than the Georgians most certainly will,

- Euro-weenies would prevent the Russkies from getting a good beating in the process.

Conversely, there is no way that Russia stays in or gets out of Georgia without being punished severely on the fields of battle and in excruciating detail. Georgians make our Jacksonian traditions look tame, but the comparison is apt.

Just hopeful, I really do hate bloodletting, but…

Aug 15, 2008 - 7:55 pm 494. fred:

“ignore words, watch actions.” by cjm

This is advice I always try to live by. Only rarely is it proven wrong.

I have always thought Turkey has been playing us. Like all Muslim dogs, they wait to see who the stronger horse is, and they certainly do not see us as being the strong one. Plus, the unofficial ideology of the nation, the revived doctrine of jihad which has long slumbered, makes Turkey a natural enemy of any promoter of freedom and liberty.

I believe Turkey has an eye on Tehran, and the Iranians have been telling the Turks that the Americans are not going to do shit about the Iranian nuclear weapons’ program. Certainly, up to this point, we have done nothing to disabuse all of that notion.

Aug 15, 2008 - 7:58 pm 495. ella:

cjm

Iran is not nearing total economic collapse, its economy is not good, but it seems far from collapse you are talking about.
Russia is not dying, too. Well, perhaps its birth rate is terribly low but it is not equal to overall dying.
Stars are red, not white – just look at china.
As for position to help or not to help – no one is going to help russia, on the other hand no one is going to make war on russia, particularly not European Union.
I have feeling that you read too much of …… propaganda. Reading propaganda is not bad, on the other hand there is a thing like too much of a good stuff.

Aug 15, 2008 - 8:04 pm 496. Konyok:

Turkey hasn’t been playing *us.*
They’ve been playing the hand that they have in a tough neighborhood.ran
We’ve known the score with Turkey since they denied 4th ID transit rights into northern Iraq. Arguably, we could have pacified the country and avoided much of the insurgency with the northern pincer of the planned invasion in place.
Turkey will remain politely neutral, just like she did in WWII, until she knows how this will end. Ultimately, that’s good enough for us.

Aug 15, 2008 - 8:04 pm 497. Konyok:

Welcome Ella.

Your English is very good. Are you SVU or GRU?

Aug 15, 2008 - 8:08 pm 498. fedya:

@neolex:
US should cunningly help military with a coup
@fred:
I believe Turkey has an eye on Tehran,

I am one of those ignorant, benighted souls who actually believes the NeoCon rhetoric about peace flowing most reliably from a democratic and free-market foundation. Only representative government and freedom of economic opportunity provide adequate incentives for peaceful coexistence.

We have seen this plainly in the “peace dividend” following Russia’s last collapse. Just as the forward progress of English Common Law and Parliament was marked by much turmoil, so too such progress must be marked by greater turmoil on a greater stage.

This non-Hegelian dialectic is the central theme of history because the human heart craves the dignity of Liberty above all else. Precious, precious, precious… Liberty.

Unlike the Marxists, we can’t claim victory is inevitable, merely possible.

Aug 15, 2008 - 8:10 pm 499. fedya:

Wot happended to my conclusion?

Conclusions: we can’t give up on Turkish democarcy and we can’t force it to mirror ours. Military juntas are bad policy.

Yes, of course, Turkey is hedging her bets out of weakness and fear. Crushing the Mullahs will fix that jus’ fine. We Jacksonians don’t mind wimpy allies; we mind strong enemies, right?

Aug 15, 2008 - 8:14 pm 500. Lifeofthemind:

The American SecDef always states publicly that we have no intention to use force. Threats to use force are only delivered by the President or the Secretary of State. Remember it was Colin Powell who when asked our plan said “We intend to cut off it’s head and then we’ll kill it.” No one expects Condi to sound like that but all the meaningful words a SecDef has to say are done in private. He mostly deals with logistics and mutual support agreements.

Aug 15, 2008 - 8:17 pm 501. neolex:

Gates, could have dodged the question, the fact of answering it, is in itself meaningful. Use of US military force, does not mean shooting at Russia. Patrolling a NATO-mandated no-fly zone over Georgia is also a form of “using US military force”.

If we were to discount all the talking done by US, and only consider actions, then besides sending humanitarian aid, which does not differentiate US from Poland all that much. Speaking of Poland, US did reach an agreement there, but it was bound to happen anyway, regardless of the invasion, so it cannot be considered an appropriate punishment.

Aug 15, 2008 - 8:18 pm 502. neolex:

@fedya

Military huntas are the reason Turkey is not currently under sharia law.

Aug 15, 2008 - 8:20 pm 503. buddy larsen:

Gul’s vision (in the article i linked above) is the Obama vision. meanwhile, a perfectly reasonable aquaintance, a stock trader who lives in Texas, just sent me an email which i’ve located on the web. This stuff is circulating. It reminds me for all the world of the stuff the gloom & dooms were writing after 9/11.

Anyway, clearly the US financial system is under attack –the ‘’shorts” alone, operating without the old uptick rule which was killed due to technical problems in valuing the fast-growing ETF vehicle, have been doing all that can be done to shatter retail confidence in US financial mkts, and the housing bubble, well, that too started somewhere, and we don’t have to let it happen again. I can’t figure out all the ways we have subverted ourselves, or have been subverted, but whatever, it may have broken this week, when instead of the commodity superspike under the pressure of Georgia-panic, we got a magnificent Dollar rally.

IOW, the hideous zombie planet Medvedev (supposedly) describes in the article, may have taken a huge setback on the strength of this week’s really monster rally in the US Dollar.

And another thing –the USA political unrest Medvedev (supposedly) forecasts in the article –we can help damp that –we just need to force ourselves back into the condition of civility which has been unfortunately terribly degraded in America over the last eight years since Florida 2000.

But it does appear that Russia has decided to ignore MAD doctrine, that is, fear of superpower nuclear war, and to fight wars on its borders wherever it sees a gain in doing so. As John Bolton & others have said with great conviction over the last few days, Europe needs to stand up, now, or it will have already become, more or less peacefully, the completion of Stalin’s dream.

Aug 15, 2008 - 8:28 pm 504. fedya:

@neolex:
Patrolling a NATO-mandated no-fly zone over Georgia is also a form of “using US military force”.

Aha! that’s it! We can’t do overflights if we don’t have Turkish cooperation. If the Turks have weenied out on us, that means no overflights, period, …unless the Ukrainians or Bulgarians offer bases [dream on, right?]

That raises the Kurdistan question, of course. Kurds are very good smugglers. Anti-air and anti-armour missiles are eminently smuggleable (izzat a word?)

Turkey may be calculating she can paly the Euro-weenies on Iran’s behalf against the Russkies.

No, the answer is always the same. Smash Iran, and Turkey will giggle defenseively, and offer us anything so long as we don’t support a Turkish Kurdistan.

What a batch of bitches in a bunch. Like I like to say, we all shouldn’t mind weenie allies; we oughta mind strong enemies. At least I hope we’ve got that one straight.

Aug 15, 2008 - 8:43 pm 505. cjm:

among the many things the turks don’t understand, is that the clock is running out on their value to us. once that clock expires, if they haven’t made things right, they will be split up to allow kurdistan to form. and they won’t say boo.

Aug 15, 2008 - 9:16 pm 506. bobal:

Konyok:

I think everybody should rush down to the emporium right now, buy some nice Georgian wine and then get a grip.

Until Turkey conquers Greece, I’m with Konyok.

Aug 15, 2008 - 9:16 pm 507. buddy larsen:

On this day 1961 the Berlin Wall began construction –behind a cordon of troops facing east, backs towards their enemy, weapons at the ready, and under orders to shoot anyone who tried to escape the Worker’s Paradise.

In time the entire east/west line splitting Germany was fenced and mined, and covered by machine gun emplacements.

This time the line is much further east, which pisses off the Kremlin, but it should remember history, as Medvedev advises, and that USSR paid nothing back for the 38,000 and 58,000 American soldiers who died fighting USSR-fomented wars in Korea and Vietnam.

Aug 15, 2008 - 9:19 pm 508. mark_b:

Ella:

I believe you have made a point, a good one.

Aug 15, 2008 - 9:21 pm 509. buddy larsen:

where’s doug –he’s always good for a cheer up — from the land of the pineapple & surfboard –

Aug 15, 2008 - 9:27 pm 510. cjm:

well, we evened that score somewhat in afghanistan. and in their value sytem we are way ahead (power politics) — given the complete heap of ashes their global ambitions turned into. and what god is doing to them now, shouldn’t happen to a dog.

don’t cry for me russia.

Aug 15, 2008 - 9:28 pm 511. Doug:

Bolton didn’t leave US out of this, Boys and Girls!
John Bolton – After Russia’s invasion of Georgia, what now for the West – Telegraph

Russia’s invasion across an internationally recognised border, its thrashing of the Georgian military, and its smug satisfaction in humbling one of its former fiefdoms represents only the visible damage.

As bad as the bloodying of Georgia is, the broader consequences are worse. The United States fiddled while Georgia burned, not even reaching the right rhetorical level in its public statements until three days after the Russian invasion began, and not, at least to date, matching its rhetoric with anything even approximating decisive action. This pattern is the very definition of a paper tiger. Sending Secretary of State Condeleezza Rice to Tbilisi is touching, but hardly reassuring; dispatching humanitarian assistance is nothing more than we would have done if Georgia had been hit by a natural rather than a man-made disaster.

It profits us little to blame Georgia for “provoking” the Russian attack. Nor is it becoming of the United States to have anonymous officials from its State Department telling reporters, as they did earlier this week, that they had warned Georgia not to provoke Russia.
—
Second, the United States needs some straight talk with our friends in Europe, which ideally should have taken place long before the assault on Georgia. To be sure, American inaction gave French President Sarkozy and the EU the chance to seize the diplomatic initiative. However, Russia did not invade Georgia with diplomats or roubles, but with tanks. This is a security threat, and the proper forum for discussing security threats on the border of a Nato member – yes, Europe, this means Turkey – is Nato.

Saying this may cause angst in Europe’s capitals, but now is the time to find out if Nato can withstand a potential renewed confrontation with Moscow, or whether Europe will cause Nato to wilt. Far better to discover this sooner rather than later, when the stakes may be considerably higher. If there were ever a moment since the fall of the Berlin Wall when Europe should be worried, this is it. If Europeans are not willing to engage through Nato, that tells us everything we need to know about the true state of health of what is, after all, supposedly a “North Atlantic” alliance.

Finally, the most important step will take place right here in the United States. With a Presidential election on November 4, Americans have an opportunity to take our own national pulse, given the widely differing reactions to Russia’s blitzkrieg from Senator McCain and (at least initially) Senator Obama. First reactions, before the campaigns’ pollsters and consultants get involved, are always the best indicators of a candidate’s real views. McCain at once grasped the larger, geostrategic significance of Russia’s attack, and the need for a strong response, whereas Obama at first sounded as timorous and tentative as the Bush Administration. Ironically, Obama later moved closer to McCain’s more robust approach, followed only belatedly by Bush.

Aug 15, 2008 - 9:38 pm 512. Doug:

Oops! Not much of a cheer up, sorry!

Aug 15, 2008 - 9:39 pm 513. buddy larsen:

Gary Kasparov has some ideas that might take Putin down a few notches.

Aug 15, 2008 - 9:40 pm 514. buddy larsen:

Doug just quoted McCain’s Sec of State

Aug 15, 2008 - 9:46 pm 515. bobal:

Declaring Russia an aggressor or terrorist state and taking the money is a good idea.

Aug 15, 2008 - 9:53 pm 516. buddy larsen:

might make a cold winter in Europe tho.

Aug 15, 2008 - 9:56 pm 517. RAH:

Turkey is arresting a significant amount of the secular military and civilians. This has damaged the ability of the military to restrain the Islamic trend in Turkey. Turkey’s judges are sliding to Islamic law that was outlawed by Attaturk.

However Erdogan is very smart and plays all the players well. Also the amount of corruption was getting to be a problem and he is cleaning that up so his party is very popular.

Turkey sits astride the Islamic world and the Christian world. Around Istanbul they are very secular, further west they are not. Turkey has been a flash point for decades and was the cork in the bottle for the Black Sea. They have every reason not to want American Navy to upset the situation and raises risks, they are directly affected.

Turkey has been cool to US the last two Turkish elections. They are not our enemy but may have an understandable desire to see the US taken down a peg. Most of the world is extremely envious and resent the US because we are the world colossus and not just militarily. Our economic strength is enormous. When we sneeze the world economies get the flu. Our recent economic slowdown and sub prime mess did not really put us in a recession our growth just slowed a lot to about 1.5%. Other economies are called raging when they get to 1.5%.

Aug 15, 2008 - 10:01 pm 518. buddy larsen:

Somebody’ll think of a way to hit back. We have giant-brained people looking at this rubik cube.

Aug 15, 2008 - 10:02 pm 519. cjm:

lowering the price of oil as we are doing, hits a lot of the right countries nicely.

Aug 15, 2008 - 10:13 pm 520. buddy larsen:

World food aid organization thru UN just put out a request to the world for $3bbl. USA stepped up with $1.1bbl immediately. The rest is trickling in. OPEC, which grossed in the first half of 2008 their entire 2007 gross, kicked in $2.5mm. yup. We’ll be leaving Iraq when they want us to –a constitutional republic rather than a dictator charnel house. we relieved the Tsunami even while Katrina was still ebbing. We stood up Germany & Japan after the world war they started. many many cases where we try to be a good world citizen & help when help is needed. So, what do we get but ”world colossus which needs to be taken down a notch”. Jeez. EU should’ve been in OIF matching us dollar for dollar –and soldier for soldier. their interests -we see clearly now, tho it was just as clear then –are far more at stake than ours anyway. And by taking the easy bye, they woke up the wolf.

Aug 15, 2008 - 10:20 pm 521. Aristide:

@Konyok

Try this one…
A QUARREL WITH TURKEY; AMERICAN WAR SHIPS SHUT OUT OF THE DARDANELLES

or better yet, this one… Another flub? Bush vowed Navy aid to Georgia too soon

Aug 15, 2008 - 10:26 pm 522. cjm:

which country would you like to trade places with? i thought so. it all comes down to faith in America; either you have it or you don’t. no one can give it to you and no one can take it from you.

what happened to your faith buddy?

Aug 15, 2008 - 10:29 pm 523. RAH:

I am amazed that the world watches us so carefully. They follow our elections more than their own and possibly more than most Americans do.

But in this flare up between Georgia and Russia and the risk of possible war between Russia and the US, I can understand their obsession with our country.

Aug 15, 2008 - 10:32 pm 524. cjm:

welcome to new olympus.

Aug 15, 2008 - 10:34 pm 525. buddy larsen:

cjm, i guess it’s just raw bitterness at the whole thing –so easily preventable, so obviously telegraphed in time to head it off. makes me feel stupid, as a westerner. but you’re right –we have assets galore –mainly us, and the USA as the exemplar of the best yet end state of political systems. but, it feels like we have a long grind in front of us, and the missed chance to kill the latest little hitler in the crib has just got me blabbing too much. thanks for the heads up on that –

Aug 15, 2008 - 10:43 pm 526. Konyok:

The maddening thing about Russian politics is that people like Kasparov, who make so much sense to us, are marginal. All of the opposition parties together only made 5% in the last Duma elections.
But, the slivoviki don’t have a party!
I guess that the Communist Party has left a really bad taste in Russia’s mouth, but this cult of personality is so much worse.
(Don’t forget, the Polish Communist Party reformed itself into a Social Democratic party in the European mold and even held the presidency from 1995 – 2005: Kwasniewski. The Russian Communist Party has become truly fascist.)
Putin’s Russia isn’t totalitarian, it doesn’t have an idea beyond paranoia and delusions of grandeur. It is authoritarian in a cheesy Latin American way. Putin has more in common with Juan Peron than Stalin. If he had a son old enough, we never would have heard of this Medvedev fellow.
When Putin dies or is overthrown, it’s going to be ugly. There are no institutions that aren’t puppets for the dictatorship. With the current adventure even the army cedes any national authority, analogous with Turkey’s military, that it might have had.

Aug 15, 2008 - 10:52 pm 527. buddy larsen:

@JewishOdysseus 7:45 –LOL –you’re right –but that’s the right spelling for the former head of the joint chiefs of staff –anyway nobody should have a name that hard to spell -

Aug 15, 2008 - 10:55 pm 528. Konyok:

Back to the original topic of this thread …

Did you notice how quickly Ella scooted?

Definitely non-English speaker, probably Russian. Just might have been a real live intelligence operative.

Did you also notice how eagerly mark_b sucked up?

Kind of a parable for our times, I reckon.

Aug 15, 2008 - 11:01 pm 529. bobal:

I think we ought to get Ukraine in NATO. Best thing I can think of to do.

Aug 15, 2008 - 11:06 pm 530. bobal:

Other than bomb Iran.

Aug 15, 2008 - 11:08 pm 531. buddy larsen:

i think mark_b was just getting nauseous over the down-beat. Ella wanted to register tjhe word ”propaganda” –as what we’re reading. kinda funny, ’cause i’ve been reading the stuff THEY’re putting out. ok, Ella, i agree, i’ve been reading too much propaganda.

Aug 15, 2008 - 11:09 pm 532. cjm:

putin single handedly has:

1. financed the alternative energy boom here
2. created political pressure to drill here, now
3. ensured an obam loss/mccain win
4. probably cost the dems a majority in the house
5. drove all of europe into our arms (pun here)
6. provided justification for nailing iran
7. deprived the russian state/military of 10’s of billions of dollars
8. damaged severely the russian oil industry

the key concept is “acceleration”; we are moving away from everyone else at an ever faster pace.

Aug 15, 2008 - 11:09 pm

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