90 Comments

1. Nomenklatura:

All this jockeying is primarily about the destination of the two big states on the fault line between Europe and Russia: the Ukraine and Turkey.

In the longer term Turkey doesn’t belong in NATO (it’s an unreliable ally and isn’t wanted in the EU) and the Ukraine does.

Russia is as usual doing a good job of uniting its opponents in ways they were not able to achieve by themselves.

The Ukraine poses a potential existential threat to the Russian regime. Should a westernized Kiev become more prosperous than Moscow (only 470 miles away) then Russians will quickly begin to wonder whether their oligarchical class is worth what it’s costing them.

Aug 20, 2008 - 7:48 am 2. Annoy Mouse:

I always thought our actions were a little heavy handed visa vie the Russian’s, what with ABMs in Europe, our strong objections to Russia’s forceful response to Islamic terrorism in Chechnya, et al, but the US posture in Eastern Europe is making a lot more sense to me now. Once a game of geopolitical chess has begun, aggressive assertions are necessary to maintain the center of balance on the side of democracy.

Aug 20, 2008 - 8:00 am 3. Cannoneer No. 4:

Montreux Convention 1936

Turkey may waive the notification requirement if the warships were transiting for the purpose of providing humanitarian assistance.

U. S. Sixth Fleet could send a humanitarian convoy to Georgia, if Bush’s bribe is better than Putin’s.

Aug 20, 2008 - 8:15 am 4. Ledger:

I have always thought that Gen. Lemay would have handled the situation with success.

Aug 20, 2008 - 8:16 am 5. wretchard:

If you hearken back to the Duke of Wellington’s Peninsular campaign, the classic strategy of the maritime power against the land power becomes obvious. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peninsular_War)

The war began when French armies occupied Portugal in 1807 and Spain in 1808 and lasted until the Sixth Coalition defeated Napoleon in 1814. … Throughout the war, British and Portuguese armies defended Portugal and staged diversionary campaigns against French forces while guerrillas bled the occupiers. Together, the regular and irregular allied forces prevented Napoleon’s marshals from subduing the rebellious Spanish provinces. French units in Spain, forced to guard their vulnerable supply lines, were always in danger of being cut off and overwhelmed by the partisans, and proved unable to stamp out the Spanish army. In the final years of war, with France gravely weakened following Napoleon’s invasion of Russia, Wellington’s allied army pushed across Spain from Portugal, pursuing offensives that brought it past the Pyrenees and liberated the country.

Wellington’s Peninsular campaign is largely lost to modern memory, but it is remembered in this song, which many may know but whose connection they may not be aware of. The usual lyrics are:

Farewell and adieu unto you Spanish ladies,
Farewell and adieu to you ladies of Spain;
For it’s we’ve received orders for to sail for old England,
But we hope very soon we shall see you again.

But I like the John Buchan version better.

Farewell and adieu unto you Spanish ladies,
Farewell and adieu to you ladies of Spain;
For we’re bound beyond the bar of Cadiz
And we’ll never see you again.

Aug 20, 2008 - 8:17 am 6. dla:

Funny, at $1.6 trillion, Russia’s GDP is 1/8 of the US. Their population is less than half the US. Perhaps they can become the new “oil ticks” for Europe which would gain them money for crumbling infrastructure. But they still have to figure out how to avoid becoming a suburb of China in the next 50 years.

I say all this to remind folks that Russia is a shrinking former super power and that much of the common thinking seems to be framed in the cold-war era. Russia isn’t a “bear”, it is an old dog. Toothless and arthritic.

Aug 20, 2008 - 8:24 am 7. wretchard:

Russia isn’t a “bear”, it is an old dog. Toothless and arthritic.

But it’s a brilliant old dog. Russia’s strange mix of capability and dysfunction make it an unstable place. It’s good enough to build many of NASA’s rockets, but lousy enough that too many Russians die of preventable diseases. Now it may be argued that this duality constitutes the originality in Russian character. But still, it would be nice if Russia could become prosperous based on its human capital and enterprise, instead of reliant on pumping gas out of the ground. In that way of thinking, ultimate stability occurs when Russia learns to “fix” itself and live peacefully with its neighbors. Great Russian patriotism will take no offense if everybody is having too good a time and making too much money to complain. What would Joe Ivan care about Georgia and the glory of Russia if he was too busy picking out a new car from the lot? But that’s not the way it is, yet.

Aug 20, 2008 - 8:37 am 8. 2x4:

dla, that may be the case, but it seems to be a rabid dog, still capable of inflicting damage.

NATO missed its opportunity and showed what a Potemkin facade it is. Perhaps ’s time to create a new defense structure — CETO with US as a backbone, independent on that Brussels discussion club.

Aug 20, 2008 - 8:40 am 9. slade:

I don’t mind making a fool of myself so here goes.

I have read in multiple sources that the current markets have excess liquidity looking for investment vehicles. I expect there is truth to this assertion.

In which case, why cannot the western world through it’s G8 and various other international organizations develop mechanisms to channel that liquidity as private investment capital in countries like Russia to jump start their markets?

Why are the economic solutions soooooo weak if not non-existent?

Aug 20, 2008 - 8:40 am 10. Cannoneer No. 4:

Though kings and tyrants come and go
A soldier’s life is all I know
I’ll live to fight another day
Over the hills and far away.

O’er the hills and o’er the main
Through Flanders, Portugal and Spain
King George commands and we obey
Over the hills and far away
When duty calls me I must go
To stand and face another foe
But part of me will always stray
Over the hills and far away

Not quite lost.

Aug 20, 2008 - 8:42 am 11. 2x4:

slade, channeling’s no problem. Throwing liquidity into a pit without an apparent bottom is. If you don’t know whether your investment is safeguarded by the country laws (or lack of them thereof), the risk factor may override any potential of large returns. The current Russian leadership seems to be in a process of “nationalizing” private sectors that were jumpstarted through western liquidity.

Aug 20, 2008 - 8:54 am 12. Holdfast:

Slade – because if you invest in Russia, you can expect to have your investment stolen as soon as your business begins to prosper. From BP to the dude who opened a Canadian-themed moosehead bar in Moscow in the 1990s, the mafia/government will steal your business, flat out. Plus the Russians themselves have sh*tpots of liquidity right now – what they lack is the technology and expertise to invest it usefully.

Aug 20, 2008 - 8:55 am 13. slade:

The answer is Creative Capitalism.

Traditional market forces – political stability, future value of investment, and fiduciary responsibilities – will isolate investment capital from developing economies.

The proposal on the table is finding a way to effectively social engineer economic drivers.

Pick your poison.

It is obvious to me that the huge international aid packages have accomplished close to nothing except to line the pockets of the supply chain.

Aug 20, 2008 - 8:56 am 14. Lounge Lizard:

Dla said: Russia isn’t a “bear”, it is an old dog. Toothless and arthritic.

Never forget Talleyrand’s comment:

“Russia is never as strong as she looks; Russia is never as weak as she looks.”

Aug 20, 2008 - 9:05 am 15. j-rog:

The Peninsular Campaign is probably the best historical analogy here, but the Peloponnesian War can approach it from another angle. Moscow’s strong-arm tactics are reminiscent of Athens’ hegemonic “alliances,” and the U.S. can play Sparta in building a league of free states resisting the “growing power of Athens” (Thucydides). The big difference is that Russia is far weaker than Athens was, but the strategy, similar to Britain vs. Napoleon is mostly the same; chip away are your opponent and wait for him to make mistakes that you can exploit (the Syracuse expedition or Napoleon’s invasion of Russia). Britain couldn’t do decisive damage to France’s logistics, but Russia needs the energy exports to survive. Richard noted that there are multiple ways into the Bosporus. Similarly Sparta finally defeated Athens with a large asymmetric coalition of more or less free states. Her ultimate victory in taking the port at Pireaus came after grabbing a number of islands scattered across the Aegean.

Aug 20, 2008 - 9:08 am 16. slade:

The current Russian leadership seems to be in a process of “nationalizing” private sectors that were jumpstarted through western liquidity.

Plus the Russians themselves have sh*tpots of liquidity right now – what they lack is the technology and expertise to invest it usefully.

Which is why I support the enhanced military defensive support posture of the “near abroad” Baltic states through NATO or some other entity. No U.S. strategic interest in Georgia?

If Plan A is rejected, move along to Plan B.

Aug 20, 2008 - 9:10 am 17. Rob:

Creative Capitalism is irrelevant to the problems in Russia. The problem with Russia is that the West made huge investments in the country which were then stolen by the Russian government through nationalization.

I don’t care how creative you want your capitalism, if you’re making an investment and then getting cheated out of it, you’re not going to want to repeat the effort.

Aug 20, 2008 - 9:11 am 18. Insufficiently Sensitive:

After one Russian was quoted yesterday in the crudest possible personal slagging of Condoleeza Rice, it’s easy to see their posture of playground bully itching to provoke a fight. And Poland, trapped on that playground, is wise to search for shield or shelter in case the big guys decide their honor is impugned and take physical measures to restore it. Patriots might provide that shield – though it also provides a new move for the bully next door to get offended about.

Aug 20, 2008 - 9:14 am 19. DanM:

Wretchard,

“What would Joe Ivan care about Georgia and the glory of Russia if he was too busy picking out a new car from the lot?”

Excellent point, but is Joe Ivan participating in the EU largess? Is Gazprom floating all boats or just the Oligarchy’s?

Not that Joe Ivan participates in much at all – having babies comes to mind.

Aug 20, 2008 - 9:18 am 20. Lifeofthemind:

The Black Sea ports of Constanta,Varna and Burgas give Nato the ability to develop a sea as well as air bridge projection into and across the Black Sea to support Georgia. Russia will either attempt to repeat the strategy that disrupted Georgia in the Crimea or back off. So far it appears to be repeating the process of handing out passports. This time the dog has already barked and they may not get away with it. If they lose the port of Sevastapol then they are reduced to using Novrossiysk, whose upgrade will not be complete for at least four years. If we can get Italy and France to push for a Nato naval presence in the Black Sea then Turkey will have to choose. Maybe we can reflag the Comfort and then dare the Turks to deny it under the Montreaux convention.

Aug 20, 2008 - 9:22 am 21. slade:

Creative Capitalism is irrelevant to the problems in Russia.

Don’t tell the transnational progressives, like George Soros, who are itching to give it a try. My point is that the failure of traditional response mechanisms is generating new ideas that you may or may not like.

As we speak the only tried and true is the military option.

Aug 20, 2008 - 9:26 am 22. Lifeofthemind:

j-rog,
Don’t you have it backwards? America is the Naval power and Russia is the landed oligarchy. Russia however is far far weaker than the Spartans were. True they are the fading hegemon and we are supporting local interests. The external threat the Delian league was formed to confront was Persia. Russia’s Comintern/Warpact was a response to Nato but the analogy seems weak.

Aug 20, 2008 - 9:29 am 23. Dave:

Thank you wretchard. The Patriot/SDI
connection explains why the Poles had been so reluctant. If you were not the first to mention this, you sure were the first I have read. And I do read a lot.

You are hereby awarded one ATTABOY. But be very careful not to nullify your gains with the dreaded AWSHIT.

Aug 20, 2008 - 9:31 am 24. S:

The difficulty of the cumbya foster development and prosperity ignores the Malthusian reality that is taking hold. Unleashing human potential does not inure to everyone as history shows. Osama had it right when he said pick the strong dog. Heretofore (recent history) the US has held that portfolio. But the world is changing. US equity indices have been flat for a decade and US competitiveness has been eroded (despite what they tell you). Can it come back, sure. Will it reach prior heights, no. Why? The 2.6B others. Even marginal increases in the rest of the world will come at the expense of the US. That is the cold hard truth and one that we should begin to acclimatize ourselves to. Not that this means terrible things, merely look at the UK. Still they live well. But the idea of trying to pawn off fighters they can’t afford is perhaps a foretelling of the future. The idea that it can never happen here is misplaced. If it took being hit over the head with a hammer for people to accept that their house is 60% overvalued, imagine what it will take for American’s to grapple with a dilution of the America centric century. Handing out passports seems like an overly simplistic formulation, if not red herring.

Aug 20, 2008 - 9:42 am 25. 2x4:

Rob, Russian government through nationalization.

There was a reason I placed “nationalize” in quotes. Back in old country (Czechoslovakia) the term was used in the colloquial domain as:
nationalize = steal; steal = nationalize.

Aug 20, 2008 - 9:43 am 26. 2x4:

S, seems that you think of US vs World as a zero sum game. It’s not.

Aug 20, 2008 - 9:48 am 27. 2x4:

slade, is Soros wants to burn money, who’s to hold him?

Aug 20, 2008 - 9:50 am 28. slade:

imagine what it will take for American’s to grapple with a dilution of the America centric century

Definitely part of my personal AWSHIT equation. Saw it about 10 years ago, a few years after NAFTA was passed in a swirl of controversy. New Century indeed.

Aug 20, 2008 - 9:51 am 29. slade:

2×4 – Good point. Not me.

It’s the political connection with Obama that can lead to policies that I can guarantee nobody on this board will like. Read the papers on the site. It is a reasonably big subject and certainly one of its own, currently in the brain-storming stage, and only tangential to missiles in Poland. But it has legs – I guarantee that also – social engineering the economic markets is the next step. This one isn’t going away.

Aug 20, 2008 - 9:58 am 30. Mike Sylwester:

Wretchard:
“it would be nice if Russia could become prosperous based on its human capital and enterprise, instead of reliant on pumping gas out of the ground. ”
————

Finding, extracting and transporting natural gas from Siberia to Europe requires a lot of human capital and enterprise. Siberian natural gas does not grow on trees and then jump down into shipping containers.

Aug 20, 2008 - 10:14 am 31. slade:

The other point is that the reason the “E” in DIME is at the end of the string is that economics is not a serious subject among our political class – aside from negotiating how much money state “A” gets for playing chess or monopoly with state “B”.

That will change.

Or not.

Aug 20, 2008 - 10:17 am 32. cjm:

i wonder if the recent airborne (and truck based) laser weapons are what really have the russians in a frenzy. this weapons system seem capable of stopping all their icbm’s, removing their ability to threaten the u.s. mainland (or anywhere else for that matter).

Aug 20, 2008 - 10:32 am 33. Michael C.:

Slade:

The key to economic growth is the respect for private property. When private property is taken by force or taxation it prevents capital from growing. Russia has never respected private property. It’s government is a government of thieves. Their rule of law is the rule of survival of the fittest.

Aug 20, 2008 - 10:39 am 34. j-rog:

Lifeofthemind

I should have clarified that I was discarding the naval/land power analogy for the sake of the argument to approach the question from a different angle. Yes the US is the Naval power and Russia the land, but in this case I think the US is in the Spartan shoes and Russia in the Athenian. It does go against the prevailing notion of Athens/US as democratic and Russia/Sparta as totalitarian I know. But consider Sparta as a conservative society with a longstanding legitimate political tradition, and Athens as the revolutionary one (which it was). Russia doesn’t have a political tradition anymore, we do. We’re the conservative ones here, and we’re forming a league of free states against a hegemonic power, just as Sparta did.

Aug 20, 2008 - 11:40 am 35. Dan:

Looks like the Bear is all in. But is it a killer hand or a bluff?

Russia Says Response to U.S. Missile Shield Deal With Poland Will Go Beyond Diplomacy

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,407262,00.html

Aug 20, 2008 - 11:46 am 36. elijah:

another variable to the patriots (land) and sdi equation is that of an air component – forward operating bases, manned and unmanned platforms with NCADE

NCADE: Implications and Scenarios

Aug 20, 2008 - 12:13 pm 37. buddy larsen:

it was the Spartans with freedom of movement on land, who rampaged in the farms & fields and humiliated the Athenians behind walls to the point of creating Athenian political unrest. Then came to Athens a black swan: that loss of traditional grain supply had caused new sources to be ginned up, which came seaborne, and brought plague, which killed a third of Athens & assured Spartan victory –which it nailed down by finally mounting a naval challenge, at much lower cost by that time due to the degraded power of the Athenian navy. Athens, much richer, bigger, more respected, had Democracy, which under war pressure began to factionalize and remove from Athens the decisive power to use its greater assets. Sparta, smaller, poorer, feared, evil in the sense of its enslavement of a neighbor to provide food and labor, had a small council of leaders who made decisions quickly and had no need of worrying about public opinion.

Aug 20, 2008 - 12:37 pm 38. buddy larsen:

Athens was some distance from its seaport –7 miles IIRC. Not wanting to engage the Spartan army, Athens built the “Long Walls” connecting the two locations, and spent much energy and innovation in schemes to defend these walls –far too long to cover with standing infantry, and thus vulnerable to point attack anywhere, developed a very high efficiency point defense, a cavalry with signal corp combined system, that did secure the Long Walls.

However, out of sight, and secretly (secrecy a weapon Athenian open society could not exploit), Sparta had put together a small navy, which immediately, by pressuring the port itself, devalued the Long Wall sunk cost, which tho necessary, was also far too expensive for something so easily flanked (see Maginot Line).

Had Athens early on determined to meet Spartan strengths head on, win or lose the war would not have lasted three decades, and would not have ended the Golden Age of Greece –which had begun with Alexander’s conquest of Persia.

i think that’s how it played out –don’t quote me –

Aug 20, 2008 - 1:02 pm 39. slade:

I understand very well Michael C.

The point – which I made poorly because it is well on the periphery of topicality which even I acknowledge – is the issue of philosopher Karl Popper’s *Open Society* on future markets as per the formulation by George Soros who sits on both the Creative Capitalism forum as well as Obama’s advisory committee on international issues.

The Cliff’s Notes version is that corporate profits should be taxed to provide capital for a global poverty and economic development pool. Boiled down to essence. Social engineering.

The one bill that Obama has before Congress is a request for humanitarian aid to fight poverty in Africa.

The intersection is not hard to see.

I acknowledge this is well off topic but any discussion of committing military force, in the failure of other options, raises this issue of the effectiveness.

And that is what I am doing – raising the issue of the effectiveness of our current economic policies in global arena. If you are satisfied, the the logical conclusion is that you support Georgia – and the military force that may be required if and when reality surpasses the rhetoric.

Aug 20, 2008 - 1:04 pm 40. voyeur:

Russian Navy bases in Syria – Bashir al-Assad should *not* spend too much on a wedding dress – Russia doesnt really have the ships so the affair might be brief…

‘I recommend that an autumn bride look for cream and off-white dresses with gold beading and accents. Look at rich fabrics such as brocades and velvets for a luxurious touch.
Remember that weather in the fall can be tricky …….

Aug 20, 2008 - 1:08 pm 41. slade:

And, by the way, this issue of the Soros version of reconstituting capitalism by way of Popper’s *Open Society* is a serious issue that will fly in under the radar screen while you people are playing handball with it as nothing more than another *kumbaya* threat to what real men do in the marketplace – distracted by your last century games of power politics and moving pieces around the chessboard.

Aug 20, 2008 - 1:09 pm 42. buddy larsen:

Slade is right –and the crashing contradiction of ”open society” riding in through a breach created by an actually open society warring with an actually closed society, doesn’t really qualify as anything more than a distraction from the proper focus –which is a war we’re discussing as a ”maybe” maybe being already here.

Aug 20, 2008 - 1:15 pm 43. slade:

Whew. I worked my way through that statement.

I agree.

Another digression to be skipped by the topic-obssessive.

Watched Bill Mahrer on Larry King last night. He noted the difference of response between Obama and McCain on the subject of Evil. Obama went deep with the “we are all capable of it” theme. McCain said something to the effect “Kill it.”

Sometimes it is that simple.

Aug 20, 2008 - 1:29 pm 44. 2x4:

@slade

Boiled down to essence. Social engineering.
The one bill that Obama has before Congress is a request for humanitarian aid to fight poverty in Africa.

That depends. Bush is admired in Africa because no administration did as much for Africa as his.

“You don’t elevate a poor man from poverty by giving him fish, but by teaching him how to fish.”

That is the basic intent of packages provided by Bush administration. It not always works as it should, because private property rights aren’t sufficiently enshrined in African countries’ laws.

Liberal modus operandi is to give to that poor man fish, enough that he survives, but not enough for him to trade the excess for something else. In summary–the goal is to create dependency. They are as evil as their token of nastiness–Monsanto.

Aug 20, 2008 - 1:30 pm 45. Michael Hoskins:

Slade,
I am sure that Soros is the greatest thinker of the age and, with Ayers and Doryn are the minds behind BHO. Sure.

Aug 20, 2008 - 1:32 pm 46. KennyB:

Here is an interesting alternative view that the west should join with Iran against the Russian energy pigs, oops I mean peacekeepers…

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/JH21Ag01.html

Aug 20, 2008 - 1:34 pm 47. buddy larsen:

Re Popper: Obama’s tax plan is a breathtakingly naked offer of cold cash to 60% of the population to be extracted from 40%. Since USA has fooled around and let the income tax get so steeply progressive that a majority of voters can be convinced that they have no stake in the interests of the 40% already paying 95% of the income taxes, the situation is ripe for the political unrest predicted by the Russian strategists and served to their diplomats in the July speeches –”unrest” if not might as well be precisely the objective (Obama to McCain yesterday “You have no idea what you’re up against”), especially in that the spending side of the tax plan is so patently unsustainable, so clearly an economy-buster, that no sane economists could be seriously proposing it as something good for the existing 230 year-old model of an America switching back and forth per elections but always consensually near the center line.

Aug 20, 2008 - 1:37 pm 48. 2x4:

KennyB, Iran would be fine, but not with mullahs, basij, IRG and Ahmnutjob at the helm.

Aug 20, 2008 - 1:40 pm 49. slade:

Michael Hoskins – My personal view is that Obama is a work in progress. Whether he forwards the progress of man remains to be seen.

The controversy thrives on the indeterminacy of his “essence” – true believer versus empty suit?

His benefactors are – pieces on the board.

We don’t know. Which is why the polls are indeterminate.

Aug 20, 2008 - 1:47 pm 50. buddy larsen:

Egypt a couple days ago issued a call to Iran to be more forthcoming (”before it’s too late”) to the west’s need for info on the nuke program. Next morning i noticed a blurb that a fire was raging in the Egyptian Parliament Building. A real fire –not the metaphor or simile. Probably a coincidence.

Aug 20, 2008 - 1:51 pm 51. cjm:

if the need arises, we can just take iran’s oil, or SA’s oil (or all the ME oil). sell some of it at a discount to deprive russia of income, and pay off our internal looters with the rest.

Aug 20, 2008 - 2:07 pm 52. Nomenklatura:

AP: “Russia says its response to the further development of a U.S. missile shield in Poland will go beyond diplomacy.”

It’s beginning to look as though Russia’s intent all along may have been to invade, occupy and annexe eastern Ukraine and the Black Sea port it leases at Sevastopol. If so, then the clearly premeditated move into Georgia was designed primarily to obtain confirmation, now provided, that no practical opposition will be offered by the west.

Russia appears to be already incurring all the likely consequences for invading either or both – it might as well now continue and take the one it really wants.

Aug 20, 2008 - 2:16 pm 53. 2x4:

slade, Obama is a work in progress.

Yea, a real piece of work.

Whether he forwards the progress of man remains to be seen.

That sounds very messianic. No. He won’t.
What’s that saying… “the road to hell is paved with liberal intentions”.

There is no need to find out, my gut tells that most people would be more than disappointed. Vote McCain.

Aug 20, 2008 - 2:21 pm 54. FreeBirdWil:

Speaking as to “poor old Russia’s” lack of strength, I misquote a line from the movie “G.I. Jane”; “How much strength does it take”… to push a launch button?

Aug 20, 2008 - 2:27 pm 55. buddy larsen:

let’s do it then, freebird –it’s the only way to get out from under the threat. USA’s neighbors will come in to help our survivors, Russia’s neighbors will go in to finish off theirs.

Aug 20, 2008 - 2:42 pm 56. fedya:

Turkey controls access to the Black Sea physically, but the Dardanelles and the Bosporus are considered “international waters” so we can sail right in any time, right? Safge berthage is another matter.

Turkey determines whether or not we have flyover access to Georgia from Incirlik which is pretty far away.

We are supposed to have some sort of basing agreements with Romania. Is that at Constanta on the Black Sea? Constanta has a fairly direct air route to Ramstein by way of Hungary and Austria.

Bulgaria borders Serbia and Macedonia, not so helpful, and Greece which could provide and air corridor from Bulgaria to Italy or wherever.

If Turkey is waffling over a grand alliance [as a junior partner] with Iran and Russia, we really can’t project power in the Trans-Caucasus or the Caspian until they choose. Until then we depend on our German friends to host a very out of the way air supply to Georgia.

Best for us:
Turkey chooses to go the “globalist” route and stand as a guarantor of Black Sea and Trans-Causcasian neutrality between Russian and the Persians. Turkey can’t depend on Europe to buffer the Russkies, but Eastern Europe, in spite of ancient enmities, with our Patriot missiles and truck mounted laser anti-anything, well …

Aug 20, 2008 - 3:35 pm 57. RWE:

J-rog:

“We’re the conservative ones here, and we’re forming a league of free states against a hegemonic power, just as Sparta did.”

Nope, nope, nope. The USA was founded on radical beliefs, a new way to create a republic, casting aside the ideas of nobility that were the norm.

The USSR and the Federal Republic of Russia clearly enbrace those old ideas of nobility, whether they strive to put their power in the Commissars or a bunch of other kleptomaniacs that have adopted a new scam when the old one went sour.

Aug 20, 2008 - 3:36 pm 58. cjm:

how about turkey is split into pieces and we make deals with kurdistan?

Aug 20, 2008 - 3:37 pm 59. fedya:

We did pretty well against them Russkies in Afghanistan, and on the cheap, too.

Ivan Bearskii has to be bluffing to a very high degree. He-she can’t conquer Georgia if Turkey agrees to allow US humanitarian freedom of the skies over the Lesser Caucasus and the Black Sea states keep standing.

Then, if Turkey chooses globalism and the Eastern Euro’s don’t fold, then it will be either:
1) a world war he-she cannot ultimately win, or
2) an ignominious withdrawal, or
3) she will be bled to death the same way Georgians have been bleeding invaders to death for 2700-1300 years (depending on who you say is Georgian, of course).

If Turkey dithers and the East Euro’s fold, well, the doo-doo is deep indeed.

Aug 20, 2008 - 3:48 pm 60. JFSanders:

Putin has called Bush’s bluff. Now it is time for Bush to put not just 10 missiles on Polish soil, but 100.

Time to push back HARD. Putin understands force and respects only that which he can’t push around. Time to punch the bully in the nose.

Aug 20, 2008 - 3:55 pm 61. fedya:

@cjm:
how about turkey is split into pieces and we make deals with kurdistan?

My 2 kopyeks:
very bad for us, the Euro’s, and anything like a world economy. Stability in trans-Kurdish areas (Turkey-Iraq-Iran) is on our side over there. Trans-Kurdistan rising would guarantee utter chaos for generations, as well as no oil/gas except through Russian or Persian hands.

Aug 20, 2008 - 3:56 pm 62. cjm:

then the turkish military had better get busy on the islamicists running the place.

Aug 20, 2008 - 3:59 pm 63. JFSanders:

Ankara is trying to read the wind. Whomever said “whichever bribe is bigger” is correct. What decision they make is predicated on the EU. If Ankara thinks they will blink then they will sit and be quiet. If the EU grows a pair and stands up, then Ankara will stand as well.

Aug 20, 2008 - 4:01 pm 64. fedya:

It seems to me the tipping point in our favor would be the moment that Georgia and Turkey agree to safeguard a US-led humanitarian mission at the Batumi naval and air bases. With that automatically comes a no-Russe air zone over the Lesser Caucasus to protect Turkey’s border (and excellent highland highways) and keep a strategic watch over Armenia’s border.

Then any Russian armor invasion into Georgia’s South-Eastern rump, necessarily by rail from their base at Gyumri, would be awfully vulnerable.

And that keeps those rascally wine makers in Eastern Georgia in business! Mmmm-mmm, good!

Aug 20, 2008 - 4:11 pm 65. fedya:

@JFSanders:
Perhaps we are witnessing the dissolution of NATO into regional units who can actually make military alliances and treaties that mean something. If so, our Former East Bloc buds should be burning up the secure connexions to Ankara, big time. Putting Iran on hold, as Turkey did, means there is an opening.

Aug 20, 2008 - 4:14 pm 66. fedya:

@cjm:
then the turkish military had better get busy on the islamicists running the place

Better yet, have both the Ataturkistes and the Islamists cooperating in democratic competition. There is no deep reason for Turkic “Islamists” to prefer Persians or Arabs over their Turkic ethnic relatives around the Caspian and all the way through Uigher-land to Wu-Wei, Western bastion of the Han Chinese.

Azerbaijani’s speak Azeri, a Turkic language that is mutually intelligible with Turkish, right? (Poor, starving Armenia!)

Is there? I mean, it’s dem Turkic peoples whots gots da gaz! “Tran-Turkistan”, gotta love it. They’ll probably have an international anthem written in beguiling semi-tones. Maybe Bono will cover it!

Aug 20, 2008 - 4:25 pm 67. JFSanders:

@Fedya:

I believe you are on the right track. What I have read lately on the Turkish leadership is that while they are a gov’t made up of the Umma(sp?) they are inline with the secularist majority and as such see Iran as a threat to stability with respect to the Kurdish fight for autonomy.

Aug 20, 2008 - 4:28 pm 68. cedarford:

WretchardFrench units in Spain, forced to guard their vulnerable supply lines, were always in danger of being cut off and overwhelmed by the partisans, and proved unable to stamp out the Spanish army.

Except, don’t forget, it is nor Russia, but America with the long supply lines and facing dubious prospects of any ally supporting our supply line logistics into yet another neocon-driven war, (If the US was stupid enough to set up military forces in direct combat & conflict with Russians and S Ossetians in Georgia).

Remember that Russia has other ways of getting potent armor divisions into Georgia besides the Roki Tunnel. The Georgian Military Road (Darial Gorge), Ossetian Military Road in central Georgia as well as the Trans-Caucasus Highway (the one with the Roki tunnel) traverse this mountain range. Passes in Abkhazia, an Azerbaijan end-around, and easiest – use of SS-21s, existing artie, the Black Sea Fleet, and Russian airforce to eliminate any coastal opposition and simply ship and land it’s potent forces. All those Russian supply lines and force projection distances are under 80Km in length.
America’s?
12,000 Km.

Farewell and adieu unto you Spanish ladies,
Farewell and adieu to you ladies of Spain;
For we’re bound beyond the bar of Cadiz
And we’ll never see you again.

I’ll always remember that from the famous “male-bonding scene” from Jaws as Limey Robert Shaw sang it as a prelude to his Indianapolis “this could end very badly with sharks” harbinger bummer tale…

Aug 20, 2008 - 4:40 pm 69. fedya:

@JFSanders:
I hope so!

And both the Russians and the Iranians have a lot to fear from Trans-Turkic nationalism. Azeris comprise something like 24% of the Iranian population and Azeris in Iran held a series of huge demonstrations in favor of autonomy in recent years.

Iranian Azeris vacation in Azerbaijan so they can speak their own language without being put in jail. Yes, apparently it is a crime in Iran to speak in Azeri.

All of the old Czarist states in Central Asia are predominantly Turkic peoples. Historically they are victims of Persian and Arab conquerors, just as they were once conquerors of Persian and Arabs.

Georgia is the missing link to connect almost all of Trans-Turkistan by land and the Caspian. And they have a heckuva lot of oil and gas, all told.

Hence, the 11th hour critical dimensions of the Georgian crisis…

Aug 20, 2008 - 4:45 pm 70. fedya:

@cedarford:
but America with the long supply lines

Right, like our supply lines in Afghanistan supplying the Muhajedeen.

Aug 20, 2008 - 4:47 pm 71. Konyok:

fedya,

Azeris, Uzbeks and Turkmen are Turkic; Tajiks are Iranian; Kazakhs and Kyrgyz are Mongol. I know that they all enjoy Georgian wine, though!

Aug 20, 2008 - 5:03 pm 72. Konyok:

Where are the multi-national peacekeepers called for in Sarkozy’s ceasefire? I have seen no mention anywhere of any action to put the force together.

Jeez, if only a platoon of Tongan infantry would gently but firmly confront the Russian checkpoint at Istoeti. Under the glare of BBC cameras, the bear would have to choose.

Aug 20, 2008 - 5:09 pm 73. fedya:

@Konyok:
Azeris, Uzbeks and Turkmen are Turkic; Tajiks are Iranian; Kazakhs and Kyrgyz are Mongol. I know that they all enjoy Georgian wine, though!

Oops, busted! But, wait, there’s more! Way East of all them thar Tajikii, Kazakhii, i Turkmyenii… the Uyghurs are Turkic, too. And I’m willing to bet that Uyghurs outside of national China had plenty of opportunity to become inordinately fond of Georgian wine.

The Uyghurs dominating Xinjiang Province in China probably didn’t have a chance to do that. More’s the pity.

Aug 20, 2008 - 5:38 pm 74. Clob:

@Slade, the moment for creative capitalism has passed; the very term makes me gag. If a capitalist feels guilty for making too much money then he should lower his prices.

And the idea of a decline in America after an American centric century is interesting. What Americans like are flat screen tvs, sports, and cars. So are people going to give up their tvs? Turn off the superbowl? Start walking to WalMart?

I kid a bit–I know what you are driving at. My point is that America is a law abiding, free, open society, with a free open press. Once you achieve–and retain–that nirvana, there is no decline.

Russia, meanwhile, has crossed the Rubicon, gaming on stakes of an uncertain future. Without a free press or open elections, ultimately, she will be doomed.

Aug 20, 2008 - 6:09 pm 75. slade:

Clob -

Not an advocate of creative capitalism. Just noting the future. [And you are very wrong to think the time has past.]

Russia – et al – will not be doomed without substantial loss of life.

Which is the issue at hand. It’s not academic – or futuristic.

Aug 20, 2008 - 6:31 pm 76. slade:

And I am not *driving* at anything.

I am observing events.

And developments.

Aug 20, 2008 - 6:36 pm 77. slade:

If a capitalist feels guilty for making too much money then he should lower his prices.

Totally missing the point. Google the site to get in the game.

Aug 20, 2008 - 6:43 pm 78. Clob:

I’m aware of what creative capitalism is…I’m saying if msft charged less there would be more money for consumers to spend on other products, and he wouldn’t feel obligated to be so charitable. /Tongue in cheek ;P

Anyway, I do correct myself. Russia is not doomed, but the nature of her state is IF it takes an aggressive posture AND does not have an open press / open elections. The reasons for this are beyond the scope of this discussion, but basically–if in 20 years you and i have an ipod embedded in our fingernail and russia has a pile of nukes, who ‘won’?

All this text could be moot if Russia withdraws like it should.

Aug 20, 2008 - 7:22 pm 79. mark_b:

Clob:

…I’m saying if msft charged less there would be more money for consumers to spend on other products, and he wouldn’t feel obligated to be so charitable.

——————————————–

That’s not charity, it’s bribery. Money spent so that third world nations get not One Laptop Per Child, but One Brick Per Child. And OOXML.

Bill Gates is the Chavez of Software.

Maybe we could flood Russia with copies of XP or better yet Vista. Too bad they’ve already caught on. They use Gnu/Linux.

/rms

Aug 20, 2008 - 8:17 pm 80. FreeBirdWil:

@Buddy Larsen…

I meant a nuclear equipped country (Russia)doesn’t have to be strong or have it all together to wreak havoc, they just need a madman strong enough to order a launch and someone caught in their net willing to push the launch buttons. I’m with you, if we must , we must, but we’ve got a lot of non-nuke havoc we can wreak on them with precision. Russian military hardware and or troops need to go up in smoke quickly before anyone, anywhere on any side will believe the USA anymore. The world just doesn’t believe we’ve got the guts to strike directly against Putin and until we prove it, rather than threaten it, the rest of the world will be hedging their bets, and Russia will get a free ride wherever they want to go.

Aug 20, 2008 - 9:39 pm 81. buddy larsen:

Freebird, yep –who knows when a Gen Jack D. Ripper will black-swan out of either ether.

Re hedging, it’s pretty clear that linchpin Turkey understands how our upcoming election could leave them high & dry if they were to saddle up with Bush now and then see Obama elected. In fact that’s a major, major weakness for us in this mess –if USA can no longer dependably sustain a foreign policy across an election, how in the world can we expect front-line allies to follow our lead? A critical weakness, really –empowering any adversary not similarly interrupted.

Aug 20, 2008 - 10:59 pm 82. Nomenklatura:

Spengler today:

“The desire of a few hundred thousand Abkhazians and South Ossetians to remain in the Russian Federation rather than Georgia may seem trivial, but Moscow is setting a precedent that will apply to tens of millions of prospective citizens of the Federation – most controversially in Ukraine.”

…

“Russia has an existential interest in absorbing Belarus and the Western Ukraine.”

…

“…for the moment, I will offer the assertion that partition is the destiny of Ukraine.

Spengler even suggests that we should let it happen, as long as there is an adequate quid pro quo:

“My proposal is simple: Russia’s help in containing nuclear proliferation and terrorism in the Middle East is of infinitely greater import to the West than the dubious self-determination of Ukraine. The West should do its best to pretend that the “Orange” revolution of 2004 and 2005 never happened, and secure Russia’s assistance in the Iranian nuclear issue as well as energy security in return for an understanding of Russia’s existential requirements in the near abroad.”

Aug 21, 2008 - 5:16 am 83. j-rog:

Back to Sparta, r.e. Buddy Larsen

Spartan freedom of movement was important, but the ravaging of Attica did very little (see Victor Davis Hanson). Athens was dependent on its sea lanes logistically, the whole point of Pericles’ strategy was indirect, don’t defend Attica because they didn’t need to risk defeat against a superior military.

The Cavalry was a nice bonus in defending the Long Walls to the Pireus, but not ultimately intrinsic. Greek armies had no decent siege equipment to speak of (all sieges were won by investment and starvation/treachery, very rarely by direct assault).

Even after the plague, Athens had the better of things in the war, the Spartans were glad to accept the temporary peace of Nicias (c. 420 B.C.). Athens opened things up again with the Syracuse expedition (415 B.C.). That catastrophic failure more than anything else was what lost the war. Sparta never directly threatened the port until the final surrender of Athens.

The Golden Age of Greece began with the Athenian defeat of Persia (480/479 B.C.) and ended with the Pelopponesian War (431-405/4 B.C.). Alexander came seventy years later (c. 335 B.C.)

My whole point in bringing up this analogy was to show an example of indirect strategies (Liddell Hart) using leagues of allies to get at an opponents strengths without direct assault. Sparta couldn’t directly harm Athens (yearly invasions of Attica did nothing substantial VDH/Thucydides), but had greater long term success in chipping away at the Athenian hegemony, and the security to sit back and wait for Athens to make mistakes.

Which is precisely what happened when Athens decided to attack Syracuse, which did far greater lasting damage to Athens than even the plague.

This is what we can do with Russia. Moscow can only extend its power through heavy-handed dominance over the “near abroad” very similar to Athens once you look past the naval/land power paradigm. The US can play Sparta by adopting the moral high ground (the Spartans took the image of the “liberators” of Greece) and checking Russian expansion (Kennan 2.0).

This strategic defensive strategy forces Moscow to take the initiative, making Russia look bad internationally, and most likely forcing them into making mistakes (which Georgia will be in the long term, it’s already driven Poland/Ukraine into our camp just as Athens drove Corinth/Thebes into the Peloponnesian League).

Aug 21, 2008 - 10:42 am 84. j-rog:

RWE on American Radicalism/Russian conservatism.

Yes the American founding was an new codification of Enlightenment principles, but the Founders justified themselves within the English constitutional tradition at the same time. Jefferson’s “Summary View” (1774) was an appeal to King George based on the colonists rights as Englishmen, and even more telling, Edmund Burke (the philosophical father of conservatism and a British member of parliament) argued that America was justified in revolting because they were upholding their rights as Englishmen (a “revolution” connotes something returning to it’s original position, as in a circle). America like Sparta, had a revolutionary founding that has endured for quite a while compared to respective neighbors on a firm constitutional basis.

But above that, we’ve got a two-hundred plus year record of a stable political tradition. Ever notice that few European countries (for all their pride in their ancient heritage) can boast of that? Russia has a long cultural tradition yes, but it’s political tradition has been one of turmoil and revolution for the last hundred years. In that sense, they like Athens, are the revolutionaries. And their current system, a supposed democracy co-opted by a single strong-man, does parallel the demagoguery of Pericles and Alcibiades.

Aug 21, 2008 - 10:55 am 85. buddy larsen:

@j-rog: –thanks for correcting my post –i’m glad i had added that “don’t quote me” –misplacing Alexander on the wrong side of the Pelop. War is something i could’ve done somewhere besides in plain view, but noooo, not me!

Important thing, tho, is with very few mental gymnastics, the Pelop. War analogy can be fitted either way. For example, the largest frame of all would be, which political system won? This of course is meaningless without the full panoply of stipulation (topography, economy, leadership, and so forth) –unless one can locate specific instances where the national effort was especially helped or hindered by the mechanics of the political system.

Long/short, even the most ancient history suggests a USA at war needs to quit now (1968 would’ve been better and would’ve saved enormous life and treasure, often for both combatants) the automatic political tactic of hyper-subversion of national foreign policy by the “loyal opposition” (why did i have to put that in quotation marks?).

Aug 21, 2008 - 2:18 pm 86. buddy larsen:

PS, please, note word “automatic” in last paragraph.

Aug 21, 2008 - 2:26 pm 87. j-rog:

Buddy Larsen

Good points, thanks. I hadn’t noticed the automatic “loyal opposition bit…hmm. Yeah I can think of cases on both sides of the Pelop. War where a “loyal opposition” worked directly against national interests for personal political gain.

I can see how the war can be warped to fit both ways. That might stem from Thucydides who was writing the first study in power politics as well as a history, giving his work an oddly universal tinge. Thus you can have democratic Athens/America undermined by factions and beaten by a totalitarian government able to operate with a single will, while at the same time a conservative Sparta/America relying on a firm and legitimate constitutional tradition and a self-imposed image as the vehicle for liberty and self-determination.

I’m not a big fan of saying America is the “new Rome” and all that, although we are the only Western Superpower (as Rome was). But there’s a definate parallel in so far as once a power starts fighting beyond its borders, it’s very hard to stop (Rome always had to fight the next tribe or people to secure what they’d just conquered) and pull back. For us, WWI led to WWII led to the cold war led to Korea and Vietnam.

I sometimes wonder what would’ve happened if we’d just sat the 20th century out (this would assume that a Germany still strong after WWI wouldn’t have let Hitler in).

Any thoughts on how to correct the “automatic subversion” (other than the moral cliches about acting selflessly)?

Aug 21, 2008 - 2:53 pm 88. Michael McNeil:

Preceding analyses of the Peloponnesian War omit certain facts, such as that the war wasn’t won by the Spartans and their associated Greek allies until the (non-Greek) superpower of the age, the Persian Empire — far from vanquished as a result of the Greco-Persian wars earlier in the (5th) century — intervened in the conflict, throwing its enormous weight behind the Spartans et al. Thus, Greek disunity was the enabling factor in yet another disastrous interference by the Persians in Greek affairs, while the Spartans and their allies were, arguably, traitors to that Greek cause.

Second, the war wasn’t lost by Athens so much because of those external factors, nor due to the plague, disastrous though it was, but as a result of the fact that Athens, brilliant though it was, was a miserable failure in finding a political, probably federal solution to transforming the original Delian League into the “Athenian Empire” — in a way that would satisfy its constituent cities/allies so that the enlarged state had cohesive staying power, like America from the thirteen colonies.

Lacking such a federal structure, the Athenians could not resist tampering in the internal affairs of their subject cities, interference which the least of them (not to speak of greatest) bitterly resented — with the result that, when push came to shove, the Athenian Empire simply fell apart.

Compare that experience with that of Rome, which during the Republic period granted to its Italian member cities rights of autonomy and self-government, which policy was later extended Empire-wide — with the result that Rome’s allies went to war with it (in the so-called Social War of 90-89 BC) in order not to escape Rome but rather force her to admit them into the Roman state! Which they won — or rather, lost, after which they were admitted into full, autonomous membership in the Roman Republican state.

Note the different lifetimes of the Athenian vs. Roman Empires — the Athenian disappearing in a few decades, the Roman the longest-lived state in history.

Aug 21, 2008 - 6:09 pm 89. Michael McNeil:

It’s worth noticing too that the Pelo. war provides an example-that-disproves-the-rule refutation to the supposed truism that “the victor writes the history books.”

Thucydides’ Peloponnesian War — one of the history’s outstanding histories as well as one of the founding documents in the subject of history itself — was written by a member of the losing side.

Aug 21, 2008 - 7:16 pm 90. FreeBirdWil:

It just occurred to me that some people may believe that it is possible for all mankind (nations, governments, tribes, etc), to live in peace on the earth. That has never happened and never will, to super-over-simplify life on earth, recall the game of “King of the Mountain”. Kids play it and then go home at supper time. For nations, empires, governments, tribes, peoples, etc, there is never a going home at supper-time to be tucked into warm beds by Mommy. Warfare, prepping for warfare, victory, defeat, re-emergence, are a fact of life, peace on earth is a mere fantasy and will never happen, with the only exception being when an Omnipotent Power deems is so. There will never be heaven on earth, heavenliness is for heaven!

Aug 21, 2008 - 8:22 pm

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