298 Comments

1. elijah:

“The natural gas lines that snake across Eastern Europe to the West are part of this calculus, as is the proposed pipeline slated to traverse Afghanistan and Pakistan towards India.”
…………………………………..

“The so-called Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India pipeline has strong support from Washington because the U.S. government is eager to block a competing pipeline that would bring gas to Pakistan and India from Iran. The TAPI pipeline would also diminish Russia’s dominance of Central Asian energy exports.”

Turkmenistan’s pipeline prospects: China, Russia, India, or Europe?

The Nabucco project

Aug 20, 2008 - 5:51 pm 2. NahnCee:

Like … this is the big threat? That it will “worsen relations” with Russia if America does this? Isn’t that like a little kid stamping it’s feet and saying, “I hate you I hate you I hate you?”

I do not understand why the Georgians haven’t introduced the Russians to the concept of an IED yet. As we’ve seen in Iraq, they’re not that hard to build, not that hard to emplace and are terrific at shredding both soldiers and their tanks.

If the Russians insist on staying where they are not supposed to be and in rolling around the countryside when they agreed to leave, then it seems to me that more than a few strategicially-placed surprises might give them call to rethink those goals.

One would almost think that Bush has ordered the Georgians NOT to protect themselves.

Aug 20, 2008 - 5:51 pm 3. Teresita:

Russia reacted angrily, saying that the move would worsen relations with the United States that have already been strained severely in the week since Russian troops entered separatist enclaves in Georgia, a close American ally.

I love this part. Imagine if Hillary filed for a divorce and “Bill reacted angrily, saying that the move would worsen relations that have already been strained severely in the week since Bill entered Monica’s enclave.” Hello, McFly? Here’s a quarter, buy a clue.

Aug 20, 2008 - 6:07 pm 4. DJS:

NahnCee – The flaw in your logic is you are thinking of warfare from a western point of view. The Russians don’t fight that way (see WWII eastern front, Afgan, Chechnya, etc). The Georgians know perfectly well what would happen if they start planting IEDs. Guerrilla warfare works great against a moral enemy, not so much against a foe who enjoys getting in the mud. I would venture that the Georgians have lived under Russian rule for long enough that they know perfectly well what their enemy is capable of and have chosen to decline giving them an excuse to venture into the darker parts of warfare. If the Russians start abusing the civis anyway, that calculus may change, but for now the Georgians appear to be playing it smart. Just my 2 cents.

Aug 20, 2008 - 6:09 pm 5. CPT. Charles:

Well, let’s see where it goes from here.

And, with all due respect to STRATFOR, overstretched or no, we step forward or we might as well go home and leave the EU to it’s fate.

To our everlasting regret.

Aug 20, 2008 - 6:15 pm 6. CPT. Charles:

DJS…bingo.

HahnCee, the Russ don’t give a shit what you, HRW, or the UN, thinks. The only way to get their attention is to inflict pain beyond their immediate reach.

The stool they’re smugly perched on has four obvious legs: oil, Iran, Syria, and Venezuela. It’d be a shame if one of those legs broke, wouldn’t it now…

Aug 20, 2008 - 6:33 pm 7. sarkis:

Russian press and politicians are more worked up over it than even the Ossetian deal.
Their argument goes like this — since Poland is getting air defense as part of the deal and it’s obvious that this is defense against Russians, then the whole move must be anti-Russian, blocking it’s response capabilities.
Russians are making noises about a response “outside of diplomacy” — I imagine some aggressive installation on the Russian side of the border — any hypotheses as to what it might be?

Aug 20, 2008 - 6:39 pm 8. Lifeofthemind:

Stratfor hasn’t impressed me yet. The warning from the Kremlin not to get the Bear really angry by fighting back does have an element of truth in it. If necessary as a last resort free people sacrifice themselves in a hopeless cause but if possible they change the equation so that their cause is not hopeless and their sacrifice if unavoidable is effective. The usual pattern in guerilla movements against the west is based on the model of the Tupamoro Foco or the FALN in The Battle of Algiers. Against a Western society the revolutionary commits small terrorist acts in order to provoke authorities into overreacting. The goal is to drive a wedge between the people and the authorities so as to unite the people into a sea in which the revolutionaries can swim.

In Georgia the opposite is true. The Russians are an alien force with no local roots or loyalty to speak of. Even the Ossetians are foreign hirelings for them. The Georgians have no interest in provoking the Russians to commit atrocities. The Georgians have an interest in killing the Russians and driving them out. The nature of the campaign changes but that does not mean less violence but more. The Georgians need to target Russian logistics, isolated units and communications. Attacks must be planned, coordinated and punishing to force the Russians to first Laager and then withdraw. Within Russia proper I would expect a campaign of sabotage and terror to accelerate.

Aug 20, 2008 - 6:42 pm 9. sarkis:

oh and NahnCee — i don’t think Russians are just rolling around the Georgian countryside. They probably will leave soon to a buffer zone after destroying as much of the Georgian military (and possibly civilian) infrastructure and materiel. This is a punitive expedition, I think, not an occupation.

Aug 20, 2008 - 6:47 pm 10. jwillie:

DJS & CPT Charles

“The Georgians know perfectly well what would happen if they start planting IEDs.”

Ditto – my thoughts immediately as well. I would add the MSM to your list of entities that think so well of themselves and whom the Russians could not hold in lower regard/give a shit what they think/say.

Aug 20, 2008 - 6:48 pm 11. sarkis:

Lifeofthemind — Russian police is already issuing warnings in Russia of impending Georgian terrorist attacks, a Georgian spy was caught in the Russian army, etc. Expect show trials I guess.
So I’ve been thinking along Spengler’s analogy of Americans playing monopoly (or, to give us more credit, Go) — playing for control of wider geographic area by positioning our bases — while Russians are playing chess, assembling disparate pieces for an attack against the heart of its adversary.
Assuming that, and assuming that Russian motivation is that of an criminal organization (rather than driven by some longer-term considerations of national pride, etc.) what sort of endgame is Russia aiming for? Ok, control of production and distribution of hydrocarbons as much as possible, I get that (hence the punishment of Georgia for diverting Caspian oil and Turkmen gas). What else? Is the Iran bomb part of the end game? How? For Iran, does it make sense to first hit the US, say from a boat, with an EMP attack or a direct hit, before hitting Israel? Just thinking.

Aug 20, 2008 - 7:03 pm 12. CPT. Charles:

Sarkis: the possibilities are numerous. At a minimum, the pipelines snap shut. Other choices: assassination, Blackjack bombers in Cuba, new ‘nasty’ toys for Syria or Iran, etc.

Take your pick.

Aug 20, 2008 - 7:04 pm 13. wretchard:

My past posts on Taiwan pointed out that if China turned the Straits into a war zone they would interdict Shanghai and Hongkong into the bargain, not to mention the tanker traffic headed for Japan and Korea — two of their largest customers. Therefore I believed that China would never actually invade Taiwan, when it was so much safer to reel it in using economic leverage and diplomacy.

The same considerations apply here. Russia can intimidate Poland, the Ukraine and the Baltics up to a point. But not to the point where actual conflict and chaos break out. Why? Because their pipelines West go through these countries and pipelines must be secured along their whole length and secured persistently. Poland has not acted in any other way except defensively. Defensive ABMs. Defensive SAMs. Poland is not going to invade Russia with Patriot missiles or anything else. So in terms of national interest stakes, there’s an asymmetry. Poland and the Ukraine are essentially fighting for independence and survival. Russia is merely playing for influence. So when the pushing comes, the calculus will be different. It always is when you are fighting for national survival.

Aug 20, 2008 - 7:05 pm 14. sarkis:

I think it was the Mongols who showed Russia how “rule by punitive expeditions” works. No need for occupation, send us the annual tax, else we come in, trash your place, maybe install a sockpuppet, and go away.
Now that Russia can also intimidate via remote control of the pipelines, it’s even easier.

Aug 20, 2008 - 7:11 pm 15. CPT. Charles:

Sarkis@1903 hrs.

Russia’s endgame: domination of the EU, and the diminishment of America. Why the EU? They’re rich, and defenseless [except for France's and the UK's nukes...] and they’re riddled with political allies [see 'fellow travelers' for further details...] and…they’re an easier target than the PRC.

America: we’re the only ones capable of stopping them.

Iran: judgment day is coming their way. Ironically, Russia’s actions in Georgia have opened that door. The EU’s current priorities are modifying even as we blog about it…

Aug 20, 2008 - 7:33 pm 16. Annoy Mouse:

I guess the ruse that the missiles were to protect the West from Iranian threats is no longer tenable. Patriots to protect against Iranian bombers?

Aug 20, 2008 - 7:36 pm 17. fred:

From its beginnings as a concept on up to the present incarnation of that concept Russia/the Soviet Union considered a missile defense shield as an OFFENSIVE weapon. That’s strange logic. It cannot fire anything at Russia. It can’t cross any border or seize and hold territory. It is designed to shoot down incoming missiles. Russia/the Soviet Union considers this defensive weapon as a severe to threat. Even when we have repeatedly offered the same technology to them. That’s very strange logic.

We tell them that this is especially meant to stop what the Iranian Mullahs intend when they get the bomb. We explain how vulnerable we and our allies are to what Iran intends. We explain that the theologically motivated Mullahs are not deterred by MAD. In fact, they welcome the nuclear holocaust.

And Russia does not even want us to deploy this system in Western Europe, the Middle East or Asia. They really go apeshit at the idea of it being in Eastern Europe. They just object to its existence, period.

So, why is it important to Russia that Iran be nuclear-armed and ready to let it rip? Why is it that Russia does not want us to be able to defend ourselves?

I have some ideas in mind, but I wanted to throw these questions out there and see what others think.

Aug 20, 2008 - 7:46 pm 18. Wadeusaf:

If the Russians withdraw from Georgia there is nothing to stop our or someone else’ guys from performing similar duty to that agreed to in Warsaw. Only the bear knows what the response will be if a repeat were performed against Western troops in a soon to be NATO member state.

They are certainly not convinced that they’re ready to leave, and they won’t be ready in a hurry until someone can give them an urgent pressing reason to go, like diarrhea. I am sure “that” does not meet the IED exception test.

Aug 20, 2008 - 8:00 pm 19. Annoy Mouse:

I think the Russians have a paucity of allies. We still have NATO but they have nothing of the Warsaw pact. With allies such as Syria, Venezuela, Cuba, et al, the Iranians are the most capable of the lot. In turn, they have threatened to place missiles in Cuba.

Aug 20, 2008 - 8:00 pm 20. Niko:

Its good to see the ‘us and them’ mentality still prevails. Nothing like getting the natives in a frenzy.

Big Bad Russia, seriously, they didn’t even the logistics capacity to forward drop units and encircle a brigade.

Aug 20, 2008 - 8:00 pm 21. what is "occupation":

russia occupies 11 time zones…

ied’s? nonsense…

terrorism INSIDE russia will rule the day….

Aug 20, 2008 - 8:02 pm 22. bobal:

They probably feel that in conjunction with a first strike by the west–which would never happen–a defensive shield becomes a part of the offense. In their eyes it undercuts MAD.

Aug 20, 2008 - 8:03 pm 23. E. Nigma:

The standard propaganda line in Russian diplomatic and military circles is that
1) Missile defense cannot work
2) Therefore, it is a cover for offensive weaponary.

So despite the intelligence that the Russians have about the Patriot system, it is served up as an offensive system, “provacative”, and the Russians will respond with something “non-diplomatic”.

I would cast my eyes south to Cuba or Venezuala.

Nuclear IRBM’s in Venezueala? How would the rest of the South American nations react to that one? Chavez might get unpopular real fast, or then again, the groveling might begin.

Aug 20, 2008 - 8:03 pm 24. krontekag:

Fred, always wondered that myself, it’s a point that rarely gets mentioned. Missile shield tech is defensive only, so how can this be a threat in this de-escalated post-cold war time?
A: Russia never finished up with the cold war. They have been hoping to get a head start before the rest of us realised.

Aug 20, 2008 - 8:06 pm 25. fedya:

@NahnCee:
Like … this is the big threat? That it will “worsen relations” with Russia if America does this? Isn’t that like a little kid stamping it’s feet and saying, “I hate you I hate you I hate you?”

Yes, exactly. Kinda makes ya wonder, right? Russia is ever so slightly too far off balance here, which makes me, for one, nervous as h**l.

@Annoy Mouse:
The sticking point was that Poland wanted the Patriots to defend themselves against [guess who] and we didn’t want to give them Patriots, just the big thingamajig.

So, Poland got the price she demanded. We [USA] are the ones that caved on that deal. We anteed [sp?] up because the Russkies are now acting Molto-Bizzarro, so it no longer makes sense to avoid provoking them. Not that we weren’t, perhaps, waiting for just this opportunity.

Bush v Vladchik… which one is the Warmonger now?

Aug 20, 2008 - 8:08 pm 26. buddy larsen:

@wretchard, with an unlimited reprisals policy, defending a long stretch of pipeline might seem worth a try –esp if in service to an otherwise attractive strategy.

@fedya, yep, me too, behavior seems ever so slightly off logic, and therefore nervous-as-hell making.

@bobal, that’s it, of course –dunno why it’s hard to see –if our system negates their launch, they are suddenly wide open to ours. we need to be careful as hell here. If your car is getting repo’d tomorrow, you’ll want to run all your errands today.

Aug 20, 2008 - 8:23 pm 27. Dave:

fred: In the following sense, a defense against incoming missles is “offensive”.

“offensive” and “defensive” are not terms of morality/ethics. They are terms of strategy. (The attack and the defense are the tactical equivalents.)

The country/force that gains and maintains the offensive is the country/force that is able to control the general course of events by virtue of being able to control itself.

The country/force that is on the defensive is the one that can only react to what the other side does. It cannot control the general course of events because it cannot control itself.

The Russian doctrine involves lower-level aggression, like Georgia, while deterring any meaningful response by the threat of launching missles. To be credible, that threat must count on those missles being given a free ride to target. If those missles can be shot down, the offensive passes from Russian hands to the targets hands.

That is why they call a system designed to keep us from harm “offensive”.

Therefore, let us offend them to the max.

Aug 20, 2008 - 8:24 pm 28. DJS:

IMO, Russians goals are the roll back of NATO out of the bears backyard. Ukrainians are next. Chavez, Cuba and Iran are side shows. The real goal is probably a roll back of the Orange revolution. The Russians haven’t been shy about covertly interfering (poisoning of whats his name, Yushenko? for example). Perhaps they think this will give them an excuse for more overt moves. Counter revolution perhaps? Coup d’État perhaps? Outright invasion seems unlikely, but they do seem awfully riled up about a defensive weapons system. A successful assassination of the western installed (from their POV) president wouldn’t be surprising IMO.

Aug 20, 2008 - 8:30 pm 29. RAH:

Missile defense that shoots down incoming missiles is a major stopping of offensive strikes the same as a nuclear response is. It means that the threat is no longer effective. That diminishes the power of Russia to threaten. That reduction of their power is a threat to Russia.

ABM defense will not have the capability with ten interceptors to seriously defend an onslaught of hundreds of incoming missiles now. But who is to say that it will stay at ten interceptors. Once these get into normal production then hundreds can be made and that does make the possibility of successful missiles strikes very low. The Russian know this also.

The Patriot have been improved so they are short term interceptors and many Patriot batteries are to be provided so there could be 100’s of short term interceptors installed.
Poland even insisted on an American guarantee that America would go to war to protect Poland. Poland is very vulnerable geographically as the land is perfect as an invasion route. Poland wisely decided that NATO may not have the will but decided that America would have the will to go to war. The defensive border that was Germany has now been moved to Poland. Germany will feel less fearful with a border country providing defensive depth. Besides Poland had the offensive capability to stop the Russian imports to Germany. Now Russia has lost the future ability to control the territory that the gas lines go through.

Georgia effectively under a cease fire surrendered to Russia and only the eastern portion is safe. Georgian cannot beak the cease fire since Russia has strengthened her forces in Georgia. Georgia has still made its defense of Tbilisi at Mtskheta, which has the high ground at the road and river. But this is a desperation defense that will fail if pushed strongly. But Russia would incur a cost to take Tbilisi. The best defense has been the high level foreign dignitaries constantly arriving at Tbilisi. Human shields if you will.

If Georgia forces shoot at the Russia than all restraint of Russian forces are gone. This has so far been a very fragile restraint. The excess of the S. Ossetian looters and murderers have been checked since that made Russia look bad. The Russia soldiers are enjoying the western good they have found at the port including American weapons like M4’s and Hummers that were at Poti warehouses.

The western oil companies invested 15 tears and billions to build the BZC pipeline and was supposed to build a gas line next to that. That has now become too costly, so Russia has already had an effect on competition to their controlled gas lines to Europe

Gates misstatement saying there was no chance of military action by the US has emboldened the Russians. If we were going to take military action we would want good supply lines since we would be fighting a force that can bring the entire countries military forces by rail since they border Georgia. We are not in that enviable position.
We would have to have Turkey’s permission since attacking Russia from Turkeys land would make Turkey a party to the US war against Russia. Turkey has to live there so they reasonably would refuse any such request.

I certainly hope that no one suggests that we invade via Iran, as that would entail going to war against Iran, then the Azerbaijan and the Armenians. No we are limited to diplomatic and soft power methods. Once we get ships to the port that will encourage Russia to leave the ports.

Russia unusual threatening the west is such bellicose ways has either an intended effect to dissuade the US from action or they now feel so cocky with a successful military action against a small nation that they feel they could take us on. I personally do not want to test that. Our Army is tired and needs lots of new equipment and more troops and armor to fight Russia, which would end up on multitude fronts. At 500K men we just do not have the land force.

Aug 20, 2008 - 8:37 pm 30. NahnCee:

“Our Army is tired and needs lots of new equipment and more troops and armor to fight Russia, which would end up on multitude fronts. At 500K men we just do not have the land force.”

Are you SERIOUS? Sending American Marines in to go toe-to-toe with Russians? That’s insane. Not that they couldn’t do it, but why bother?

There are so many other soft power ways of twisting the bear’s tail and kicking its stool out from under it.

I think simply laughing at their bluster and pointing at their pathetic soldiers who are so sad they have to steal toilet paper will escalate things quite nicely.

If Ivan wants to nuke someone, I personally am tired of 50 years of hunkering under the desk at school and conducting evacuation drills. We will *not* send our Marines in to do NATO’s job (again). But if Ivan wants to go nuke to nuke, we’ll see how many each has and whether or not they’ve been maintained to the point of actually going off and doing what they’re supposed to do.

So the Bear is angry and Putin is crazy. So am I.

Aug 20, 2008 - 8:52 pm 31. ella:

1) pipelines goes through Ukraine and Poland, if Russia attack (militarily or otherwise) these countries, oil to EU stops. Why do you think Germany is rapidlly building pipeline from Russia going under Baltic sea?
2) not long ago defence shield has been viewed in US as something which is not needed and the talks went slowly. On the other hand many people in Poland viewed the balistic missiles stations as something they do not need because there is NATO. Russian troops in Georgia changed all that.
3) Russia is objecting to the shield mainly because it will be build in countries that they feel should be in their sphere of influence. It does not matter that Poland is in NATO or that Ukraine or Georgia want to be in NATO. Many people there still think of Georgia or Ukraine as of their own republics and about Poland or Hungary as of the countries which should be under their influence. It is not a COLD WAR it is russian feeling that “these countries belong to us”
4) In Georgia as well as in Ukraine there is a large number of Russians. In Georgia these Russians are conflicted, many of them do not know what to do and in these conflict russia counted on their support. I think it badly miscounted. On the other hand in Ukraine in Crimea there is large population of russian who do support all things Russian – a little bit different situation from Georgia.

Just my two cents.

Aug 20, 2008 - 8:53 pm 32. buddy larsen:

Instapundit just put up some thinking on the topic.

Aug 20, 2008 - 8:54 pm 33. Doug:

– Russia Never Wanted a War –
Gorby, lifelong practitioner of propaganda.

Aug 20, 2008 - 8:55 pm 34. Doug:

“It is not a COLD WAR it is russian feeling that “these countries belong to us””
—
Then by all means, Poland should submit to whatever Russia wants, we wouldn’t want their FEELINGS hurt now, would we?

Aug 20, 2008 - 9:00 pm 35. AZM:

DJS, concur with your on-point response to 5:51.

The WSJ has an editorial today by Sergey Lavrov, the foreign minister of the Russian Federation.
It is titled, “America Must Choose Between Georgia and Russia”.

It made me think of four things:

1. Some folks (including W?) believe that Russia lost strategic flexibility in invadnig Georgia whereas the West continues to present the Russians with dilemmas. Lavrov’s piece might be wrong (or even evil) on every count …but there’s no denying that it forces you to understand the larger point that strategic flexibility is not just lost/gained by action but also by inaction… and that for all parties, dilemmas abound. We are not in a good place; don’t anyone kid yourself otherwise.

2. We are trying to play poker and they are playing, well, Russian Roulette. We are not so smart as we like to think we are. Nor are we primarily guided by morality. About all we have going for us is strength, and for a few weeks after 9/11, we had a righteous anger. If you had grown up in the place I did, you would not need to be told that physical capacity is almost never a match for sheer balls. This is not a slam against the average US soldier (who has both in abundance) or against our military apparatus (which, at least, has the former). It is a reflection on the body politic.

3. This third point pains me so much to even say, but I must confess I am now in doubt. Should we stick to the morally compelling vision of pay[ing] any price, bear[ing] any burden, or should we stop trying to be the doula and protector of personal liberty outside our national borders? What, outside of ourselves, is worthy of sacrifice? Why? [At a tactical level I have more than one answer and at a strategic level I have more than one answer, but at a philosophical level I have only one.]

4. If it is worth saving the planet from itself, then it almost follows that we need to save the Russias and the Irans from themselves. Which means, at least in the context of international conflict (as opposed to conflict conducted by non-state actors), that we should aggressivley pursue two things — energy outside the oil paradigm, and a missile defense shield.

Aug 20, 2008 - 9:03 pm 36. RAH:

The big strategic mistake that Bush and Rumsfeld did was not to massively increase our Army and military personnel when we decided that we had to go to war. Rumsfeld was still trying to fulfill the mission he was assigned to downsize the military and the bases that was organized under Clinton. After 2001 there were many that were willing to volunteer for military but with having to keep basically three armies in rotation we do not have enough forces. The reserves have been used excessively since they were not supposed to be active that much In order to preserve the peace dividend a good proportion of our military was in the reserves rather than active.

Under Clinton we reduced by six divisions and that has strained the Army a lot. The Navy has not been strained except for longer deployments. Our transport aircraft has been under the worst strain and we had to loan so much of our helicopters and cargo planes to the British and other Allies since they had not the support structure. That is why the US is so upset with NATO. NATO has failed to provide the support and the troops needed. Besides there fighting will was almost non-existent.

That is why Rumsfeld was so disdainful for Old Europe and appreciative to new Europe because New Europe was will to risk a greater percentage of their military and was willing to fight. NATO allied forces were more just a symbolic force and the US had to do almost all the fighting. Afghanistan campaign has been going poorly since that was left mainly to the Europeans and they screwed up. The British made agreement with Taliban they could control towns that we had to take back.

They did the same in Basra. So while the common soldier was willing and able their leadership sucked and just wanted to negotiate rather than fight. Just take the example of the British Navy that allowed their personnel to be taken and the pathetic cries of the seaman that made them look wimpish. NO wonder Russia thinks NATO is useless bunch of old women. Heck even our Grannies at 85 are will to use a gun to save their homes.
http://www.wpxi.com/news/17223812/detail.html

Aug 20, 2008 - 9:22 pm 37. John Moore:

I think the reason Russia fears the ABM’s in Poland is simple: the ABM site becomes a strategic nuclear tripwire. That system, like an early warning satellite, is a national resource of such importance that attacking it is akin to a nuclear attack – it is a MAD violation. Hence Poland fells insulated from invasion because our critical system is sitting there.

There is also a valid reason for the Patriots. If the Iranians wanted to nuke us, first they might use IRBM’s to take out the ABMs. The Patriots are adequate for defending the ABMs, hence preserving their strategic role.

Furthermore, Patriots are essentially point defense weapons (air defense 70km, missile defense 15km). A Patriot battery defending the ABM site does little for Poland’s overall air defense capability.

Aug 20, 2008 - 9:24 pm 38. RAH:

The problem is that Russia has not thought out their strategic plan for the next 20 years. They are just reacting to their old enemies and their humiliation. The Near countries are part of that reaction. But with a weakened Europe that encourage greater ideas because of opportunity. IF Russia could conquer Europe, unlikely I know, they would use Europe’s manufacturing capacity to supply their lack.

Russia’s real threats are China and Islamiczation of their southern border counties. I could easily see the US protecting Russia to restrain a Chinese Empire.

Aug 20, 2008 - 9:36 pm 39. Lifeofthemind:

sarkis,
My expectation is that Putin and the Kremlin gang sat down and actually read Clark Clifford’s “NSC 68″ that followed George Kennan’s “Long Telegram” (later amended and published as “Sources of Soviet Conduct”) which set US policy at the start of the Cold War. Unfortunately while every American in the field of foreign relations or National Security studies probably read it in school few seem to remember it.

In addition he has probably studied strategic theory and seen how the critical regions that were considered essential for dominence in a system of competing powers have changed from the coal regions of the mid 20th century. Putin is not stupid, he may be many things but stupid is not one of them. He wants to control the oil and he wants to use that control to dominate his neighbors and expand his power. We cannot allow him to do this because he sees his goals as zero sum against our security. Therefore we must work to seperate him from access to those resource regions he seeks to dominate.

Aug 20, 2008 - 9:40 pm 40. buddy larsen:

“…a response outside diplomacy” –a reponse outside ‘the’ diplomacy?

The diplomacy that has yielded the Georgia agreement. That’s what that means.

Russia won’t budge from Georgia as long as the Poland deal stands.

That way, the three events are linked –in a simple 1-2-3-4 sequence –and it will be the Polish deal that is keeping Georgia occupied.

The Russians will “go dark” in this equation –and so will USA –it will be Poland and Georgia in the ring –as diplomatic adversaries before long.

As far as Russia’s pledges, they’ll keep on intending to honor them, adding that, but really, under the new situational conditions created by Poland, their citizens are newly threatened, and until their citizens are no longer threatened, there is really nothing they can do about the current Georgian status quo.

that’s my guess.

Aug 20, 2008 - 9:44 pm 41. ella:

“If Georgia forces shoot at the Russia than all restraint of Russian forces are gone. ”
RAH, Russians hardly have any restraint now – well, perhaps in Poti, there are many ethnic russians there.
In Georgia russians already killed 2 journalists – on 11th russian bombs killed dutch cameraman Stan Storimans, next day russians killed Alexander Klimchuk. In Osetia two other journalists (from georgia) were also killed.
Russian troops drops fire bombs on Georgian forests, some of the villages are burning. Russians prevent firefighters to start fighting the forest fires but it is not surprising – they started it.
So really, it is funny that you are talking about restraint. Of course we can have troops murdering, pillaging and raping but then they would not be a troops but a Mongol horde.

Aug 20, 2008 - 9:46 pm 42. fred:

How is Russia going to manage to pull off the annexation of so many countries when its own population is rapidly shrinking? And with a Muslim population that is growing, it can’t be a comfortable place for them to be. Our population is roughly twice the size of Russia’s. The Kremlin is going to have to continue to rely on 18 to 19 year old draftee cannon fodder. And that pool of human resources is not by any means limitless.

Russia’s weaknesses: low population growth and a declining health of its people; not much of a manufacturing base; wealth concentrated in the hands of a few and a thin middle-class; aging military equipment and technology, etc.

Our long-term strategy should take into account their strategic weaknesses. But we are not going to have a long term strategy until the outcome of the November election. One outcome greatly favors Russia in many ways; the other outcome is very bad for them. The big prize for Russia if Obama wins will be the end of the missile defense program (among others).

Aug 20, 2008 - 9:47 pm 43. ella:

Doug

It seems that you badly misunderstood what I have written.
I am not saying that I like it, or that it is good, or that Poles have to submit to whatever Russians want. I am telling you how some russians think. You may not like it, I do not like it, but the fact is a fact and your liking or disliking does not change it.

Aug 20, 2008 - 9:50 pm 44. DrJ:

fedya:

OT, but I have a wine distributor interested in (potentially) purchasing for resale a number of Georgian Wines and Brandies. Do you have some names of decent products?

This may or may not happen, but everything I can do to make it easy for them helps. FWIW, this is a major left coast (US) distributor and reseller.

Aug 20, 2008 - 9:51 pm 45. fred:

A major, critical blow to Russian ambitions would be an operation to “de-claw” Iran. A thorough disabusing of the Mullahs’ nuclear ambitions is in order. It’s the right thing to do, and I think the smart thing to do. You pretty much render Iran a useless proxy after completing that mission. Russia is clearly using Iran to shore up its ambitions for Central Asia and even the Middle East.

We can do Iran. It isn’t painless, since analysts and policy wonks get their panties in a bunch over what the Iranians could do to the Straight of Hormuz. Well, if we plan this operation right and execute it well, the Iranian navy will be safely in Davey Jones’ Locker and its air defenses wrecked.

Aug 20, 2008 - 9:57 pm 46. James Kielland:

If we are really serious about weakening Russia, the best thing we could do would be for our government to stop subsidizing our absolutely ridiculous consumption of oil. No military action we could take in Georgia or agreements we could make with Ukraine or Poland would be as much of a threat to Russia’s long-term power projection capabilities as a drop in the price of oil.

Within a very few years the United States could dramatically reduce its consumption of foreign oil. This would not only reduce our strategic vulnerability it would also be good for our economy. Nearly $2 billion dollars flies out of our economy EACH DAY due our current oil consumption patterns.

It’s completely thrashing our economy. We have within our reach the ability to move significant portions of our economy over to other energy sources. Unfortunately, the oil companies have somehow managed to absolutely brainwash people into thinking any alternative model is completely unworkable.

You even have otherwise intelligent people running around saying absolutely fantastic and bonkers things like “solar panels require more energy to manufacture they they will ever generate!” Or the even more bizarre, “I don’t want my tax dollars going to research alternative energy!” while at the same time being unaware that the Federal Government subsidizes our oil guzzling with more dollars per year of funding than all other forms of energy research combined.

To those who believe that missile interceptors in Poland are nothing but a completely innocent, non-offensive move directed strictly at Iran: come on. This is a mature forum filled with people who read. The Polish interceptors are clearly directed primarily at Russia. If we were so damned worried about ICMBs out of Iran we could have interceptors based in Israel, Saudi, Qatar, and Afghanistan.

Clearly we want to reduce Russia’s ability to utilize missiles. Clearly a significant portion of our national strategy has been to align forces right up against Russia’s border. Clearly we want to contain Russia and not see it re-assert itself. To deny this would seem to require a stunning refusal to follow the news or read the strategic literature.

If, for whatever strange reasons you really want to argue that our BMD programs are only directed at Iran, I really don’t know what to say.

Aug 20, 2008 - 9:57 pm 47. Doug:

Sorry, Ella, I was just being sarcastic, and I realize that is how many feel, however ill-founded such feelings are.
—
Buddy,
The fact that none of their promises were honored PRIOR TO the Polish agreement will remain unmentioned, since we would not want the neat sequence to be interrupted by any inconvenient facts on the ground.

Aug 20, 2008 - 10:12 pm 48. ella:

fred

a major, critical blow to Russia may be de-clawing Iran, it will also be a major support for the wahabi imams in Saudi Arabia and elsewhere. In fact we will just do their job for them. We will show them that we are as “imperialistic” ( et cetera, et cetera, et cetera ad infinitum ) as they think we are so the soonest they start jihad the better. And we will help Saudis to get to the unimpeded leadership position among the muslim community. (Saudi Arabia is a competitor with Iran for being the leaders in the muslim world)
There is also one other major point – it seems that it would be difficult to target all the nuclear facilities in Iran with conventional weapons.

Aug 20, 2008 - 10:16 pm 49. bobal:

Russia’s real threats are China and Islamiczation of their southern border counties. I could easily see the US protecting Russia to restrain a Chinese Empire.

yup, the Russians don’t seem to be thinking very clearly. They ought to join up with us rather that give us trouble.

Buddy, you’re right, they’re staying in Georgia with the excuses you mentioned.

If we all had grannys like that 84 year old pistol packer, we wouldn’t have to hire any babysitters.

Aug 20, 2008 - 10:17 pm 50. Pat Patterson:

I still have the t-shirt one of my students brought back from the ME after the Gulf War with the 1st Marine Expeditionary Force that had the slogan on it saying, “Speed Bumps of Arabia.” So I suppose that Patriot unit might be filling the same function.

Aug 20, 2008 - 10:21 pm 51. 2x4:

Rus needs to create some form of “breach from Georgian side” to avoid the friday pull out deadline. Something is in cards for tomorrow. In the vicinity of Tbilisi. Once that part of the game is in place, they will strike on the capital. Actually, it may be a wholesome lie, who’d know what really happened, in the aftermath?

Whether that scenario materializes depends on Russian upper eschelon of officers. They may start to feel a bit uneasy about the whole affair, seeing that there is disparity between claims and what is really taking place. Or second, whether some Kremlin faction would feel threatened by escalation.

If these two factors are not in the way, the attack on Tbilisi is certain. Who’d stop them? Nobody, they are convinced. If that happens, and there is no other action but a litany of protests, Russia would feel that they should up the ante, to fragment the focus of western leaders. They want back Ukraine at the least, and the whole former USSR eventually. So, what would be next move on the chessboard?

In a relatively short period of time, Russia may try to create a diversion via Iran. It has to be done fast, before any chance of Israel or US preemptive assault. They may take a gamble and transfer a handful of nukes to Iran. Once done, they would be able to use Iran’s card for a blackmail, they think. Their hope would be that Iran will use the nukes in a short order by attacking Israel. That may as well be. But there is one factor that they may be overlooking. Iran’s goal (or specifically Ahmanutjob’s) is to create mayhem–WWIII. They may decide that the best way to do that would be to return the nukes to Russia–via air.

Sounds utterly crazy, doesn’t it?

Aug 20, 2008 - 10:22 pm 52. Mike Sylwester:

The USA has good reason to be dissatisfied with NATO, but NATO still is a tremendous military resource that we should not disdain.

We might wish that our NATO allies in Afghanistan fought better, but the very fact that NATO has responded militarily to the 9/11 attacks has caused radical Moslems to significantly recalculate the potential consequences of attacks targeting the USA.

One problem in placing these anti-missile systems in Poland (an action I support) is that we are straining the political consensus that holds NATO together. We had to twist a lot of European arms to get this agreement — and an NATO’s leader it is our own burden to twist arms — and so we are developing a lot of political resentment. Europeans perceive that we are exaggerating and provoking the Russian threat.

Maintaining the enormous NATO force and its enormous political consensus means that we must exert our leadership very patiently, slowly, steadily and diplomatically. It’s a strategy similar in many ways to investing financially in very safe securities. It’s more exciting to rock the boat, but NATO is not a good place to do so.

Aug 20, 2008 - 10:23 pm 53. Annoy Mouse:

The funny thing is that the ABMs are the last defense in a chain arcing backwards from the intended targets, us/US. The certain events of an ICBM attack are launch, boost, re-entry. The boost phase is in a near arc to Poland. The Russians know exactly the implications of that. But the worm is about to turn on this whole scenario with the introduction of direct energy weapons for both ABM and F-ing a host of other things up as well. These technologies are in the test and development phase and will be a reality in the near future and not the far. The legend has it that Reagan proposed “Star Wars” as a national project like the space race and the Russians crapped themselves. Bankrupted them so to speak. Well, in a way, SDI is here and well. There is a point that when you get to a certain level of technical granularity that shooting down missiles is child’s-play. We’re not there yet but we are getting there. Arms race anyone?

Aug 20, 2008 - 10:33 pm 54. buddy larsen:

@James –“solar panels require more energy to manufacture they they will ever generate!” may refer to the fact that without the various taxpayer-provided credits and rebates solar roof panels are generally too expensive for a large part of the market –at this point in time.
“I don’t want my tax dollars going to research alternative energy!” –I’ve never heard anyone at all say that, ever.
“…the Federal Government subsidizes our oil guzzling with more dollars per year of funding than all other forms of energy research combined” –i too want a gov’t, or private, or any combo of, solution –that statement imho needs a little tightening up –it sounds like the very jingo you deride. I’d quantify that “subsidy” and net it of taxes before quantifying those gov’t research inputs that you say total less than the net of subsidies less paid-in taxes, if i was trying to persuade. Plus the thread could use the links. if you have time & inclination, that is. Thanks in advance.

Aug 20, 2008 - 10:33 pm 55. 2x4:

Mike, NATO is already a lemur. No need to slow it down a bit more. There is no time to match the lemur speed. By the time the lemur is finally ready, the Russian border may be with Poland, Slovakia and Romania.

Aug 20, 2008 - 10:34 pm 56. bobal:

In a relatively short period of time, Russia may try to create a diversion via Iran. It has to be done fast, before any chance of Israel or US preemptive assault. They may take a gamble and transfer a handful of nukes to Iran.

If they’re getting in the business of handing out fistfuls of nukes, they can do that any time, after a US or Israeli assault, if they so wanted.

A risky business, handing out nuclear arms. I doubt they’d do that.

Aug 20, 2008 - 10:34 pm 57. bobal:

But, I might be wrong, in which case, I’m probably right, that the human race simply can’t manage its affairs in a rational manner, and like Ralph Waldo Emerson said, everyday is doomsday, but in another context.

Aug 20, 2008 - 10:38 pm 58. 2x4:

bobal, to whom they would hand it after US/Israel preemptive assault? Some unpredictable rogues? They see Ahmnutjob as predictable.

Aug 20, 2008 - 10:40 pm 59. Konyok:

Dr. J,

Saperavi is a luscious and intense red grape that reminds me of a cross between Zinfandel and Malbec.

Late harvest Saperavi is called Kindzmarauli. It is slighty sweet and very rich. (Stalin’s favorite wine … )

Tonight we enjoyed a Kindzmarauli rose. It was really nice, much cleaner than a grenache.

Another late harvest semi sweet red is Khvanchkara. Very red and intense with a nice cherry-raspberry flavor on the tongue.

These are the big three and your friend would do well to buy estate bottlings.

Georgian brandy is OK, Armenian is reputed to be better. But, the Armenians have allied themselves with the Russians, so …

Aug 20, 2008 - 10:41 pm 60. 2x4:

There is a chance that some Russian elements may be feeling that the game went as far as necessary and a cool-down is in order. The question is what are the actual long tern goals of the Putin-led oligarchy and how far is consolidation of their power completed, and whether the more same element has enough clout.

Listening to rhetoric coming out of Russia, things are not looking good and we may be for a rough ride. hat am I saying… very rough ride.

Aug 20, 2008 - 10:52 pm 61. bobal:

To the Iranians, as you speculated. I doubt they would.

Aug 20, 2008 - 10:54 pm 62. Konyok:

2×4,

I know that the Volodya would dearly like to do as you fear, but I think that the Georgians are dug in too well and the Russians would have to dig out of their present positions and maneuver to concentrate their forces to force their way through Mtshekha. In that situation they really would be vulnerable to IEDs and I have no doubt the Georgians would take advantage.

Aug 20, 2008 - 10:56 pm 63. 2x4:

Bobal, I know, it seems to be too crazy. But they know Iran is lost as a leverage once US/Israel take a care of it.

The response to the shield in Poland is nukes in Iran, in their geopolitical chess game.

Aug 20, 2008 - 11:01 pm 64. 2x4:

Konyok, they would do air/missile strikes. Not the ground offensive. The ground forces would be moved once the path is “cleared”.

Aug 20, 2008 - 11:03 pm 65. supercargo:

Unbelievable. The majority of posters at a nominally well-informed Free World website, insist on Holocaust-Denial redux on the issue of Saakashvili’s “Operation Clean Fields” in Ossetia. Why deny that that war criminal savaged a civilian population? My copy of the Helsinki Accords, includes a provision that anathemizes war propaganda.

We need the truth, both about the causa bella and Russian conduct in Georgia. Why on earth do you want lies?

Aug 20, 2008 - 11:08 pm 66. 2x4:

Just a note, I would love to be very wrong.

Aug 20, 2008 - 11:10 pm 67. Konyok:

2×4,

The ground is too rugged for accurate missile strikes. On the things that we don’t know is the condition of the Georgian air defenses. They punished the Russians badly in the first couple of days of this war. If they have regrouped and redeployed they could make air strikes too expensive.
In any case, it’s a narrow corridor and their armor would be very vulnerable.

Aug 20, 2008 - 11:12 pm 68. Annoy Mouse:

I don’t think the Russians need to sack Tblisi. They are choking them off quite well as it is. And when you struggle with a python, unless you kill them, they only grip tighter. But then again, crazy Ivan…

Aug 20, 2008 - 11:13 pm 69. Konyok:

Good morning supercargo.

Are you just reporting to your post?

Aug 20, 2008 - 11:14 pm 70. buddy larsen:

I don’t want lies. I don’t want war. I don’t hate Russians. I’m sick over this whole thing, and wish we could back it all up and do it all over. if only appeasement worked, it would be worth doing on small stakes.

Aug 20, 2008 - 11:15 pm 71. Konyok:

I agree, this phase is more like a python slowly strangling its prey.
The object? Forcing Saakashvili to resign.

Aug 20, 2008 - 11:15 pm 72. Annoy Mouse:

Konyak, very funny. I personally like the offer of an independent Russian court to review the causus beli. Is it time to institute the ICC? Certainly the Russians had to intervine on the basis of human rights no? Well comrade? Sounds like the perfect diplmatic angle. I know the Iranians have impecable timing for talks.

Aug 20, 2008 - 11:20 pm 73. wretchard:

The BBC reports that US officials have said that their military presence in Georgia will now become permanent. The affair in Georgia was never about South Ossetia for Moscow. It was about being able to assert their regional hegemony. Whatever signal the Kremlin intended to send was, the signal that was received is indicated by the reaction of the US, Poland, Ukraine and NATO. From the looks of it, Georgia is not about South Ossetia either. Nor is it even about regaining respect for Russia, even if that’s what Putin thinks it should be about. When the border was crossed into Georgia proper it became altogether about something else. It is about stopping Putin’s policy.

Whether or not this is the right or proportional response can be debated. But what seems clear is that the law of unintended consequences is already operative. My guess is that each bellicose move from Russia will be matched, move for move, by equally bellicose US actions. I suppose Putin thinks that the stakes will reach a point where Washington will fold. But because it is not about Ossetia, or even Georgia any more, Putin is probably mistaken. The farther Washington ramps it up, the less they will be willing to climb down. The ante will keep rising, without limit.

I don’t think this is what Putin intended. But it is what he has gotten and whether he likes it or not, the stakes are now very high. And they’ll go higher. If diplomacy is not to fail entirely, it must find a solution that will satisfy everyone, including the Georgians, Ukranians and the Poles to some extent.

Aug 20, 2008 - 11:22 pm 74. 2x4:

Konyok, remember that several days ago, Rus transferred a substantial amount of SS21(?) into the theater. What for? Intimidation? Kinda overkill, Chechens were already on job.

Buddy, I hate wars. But appeasements don’t work. One ends up not only with dishonor, but with the war that appeasement was trying to avoid, in the first place.

Aug 20, 2008 - 11:29 pm 75. Konyok:

Independent Russian court. Hmmm. Would that be something like a virgin prostitute?

The ICC? Possibly …

All fun and bombast aside, one thing that we do have to ponder is that the Russians do have a legitimate claim regarding the death of their troops in the initial assault against Tskhinvali. They are backing down on the original claim of 1400 civilians killed, the actual number appears to be around 133.
As the evidence collects, it does look like the Georgians were preempting a Russian attack. But, the use of indiscriminate weapons like katyusha rockets against an urban area is troubling.
What is fair compensation?
Has it already been paid with the pillaging of Poti?

Aug 20, 2008 - 11:31 pm 76. bobal:

I’ve read so many different narratives about how this started that I don’t know what to credit. Everything from snipers getting out of control, to Russia pre-positioned tanks to artillery barrages, to mutual ethnic cleansings. I have read differing reports about casualties on all sides. If anyone has a good article that would clear it up for me I would be very thankful to read it.

Aug 20, 2008 - 11:33 pm 77. Tcobb:

(1) If Iran really annoys Russia sufficiently they know that the Russians can and will stomp the hell out of them and that no mercy will be shown. None. Mercy is not a weakness that the Russians have. And if they did invade Iran, who would really want to stop them?
(2) An aggressive Iran armed with long range missiles can be used as leverage for Russian objectives.–Ah, those insane Iranians are threatening you? We, the Russians, can reason with them and get them to back down, but in return we want X, Y, and Z for our assistance in restraining them.
(3) A missile defense shield makes the scenario in #2 above less likely or even impossible.

–Get the point?

Aug 20, 2008 - 11:34 pm 78. 2x4:

Wretchard, thanks for then interdiction. That single fact shift the whole game into a different direction, perhaps as dangerous, but with more chances that the show of resolve will force a diplomatic route to resolution of this situation.

Aug 20, 2008 - 11:35 pm 79. bobal:

This is exactly what I mean–

They are backing down on the original claim of 1400 civilians killed, the actual number appears to be around 133.
As the evidence collects, it does look like the Georgians were preempting a Russian attack.

I don’t know what the hell happened.

Aug 20, 2008 - 11:36 pm 80. Annoy Mouse:

Amazing article Wretch.

“Georgia’s new president-elect has set the removal of Russian troops still based in the country as a major priority for his government. ”

and if elected, I promise to clean up city hall, reduce crime, restore our schools to their former glory, and oh yeah, expell the Russians.

Aug 20, 2008 - 11:37 pm 81. 2x4:

Tcobb, your point #3… How so? You are looking at it from a rational perspective. But you are not dealing with an entirely rational player.

Aug 20, 2008 - 11:40 pm 82. Konyok:

wretchard,

The byline on that link is 18 January, 2004.

**

I really don’t buy the notion that Iran is Russia’s proxy. Perhaps an ally of convenience. More likely an act of appeasement.
Moscow is confronting the west, in part, because Islam is the strong horse on their southern flank. A strong horse without a vulnerable central nervous system.

Aug 20, 2008 - 11:40 pm 83. Annoy Mouse:

“Has it already been paid with the pillaging of Poti?”

Sounds about right to me.

bobal, I’ve heard nothing but propaganda from both sides I think. Would be interesting to know.

“but in return we want X, Y, and Z for our assistance in restraining them.
”

My read exactly. Russia has always been the thorn in the Iranian affair. A proxy threat is better than a proxy war, therefore, expect a lot of the former.

Aug 20, 2008 - 11:44 pm 84. 2x4:

Annoy Mouse, and? Politicians are politicians. Promises are what they do. I mean… what did you expect?

Aug 20, 2008 - 11:46 pm 85. Annoy Mouse:

I don’t know, it sound so trivial in that sense; “Expelling the invading army will be one of our top priorities.” Just kind struck me as funny. Its the banality of evil I guess.

Aug 20, 2008 - 11:48 pm 86. fedya:

@Konyok:
Late harvest Saperavi is called Kindzmarauli.
OT, indeed. My take from the spotty evidence is that Saperavi is a native-Georgian variety used in most Georgian reds, it is a full season maturing fruit, and that the Kindzmerauli wine is 100% Saperavi from that one exceptionally blessed sub-district. I know, точно до точки, if I may invent ein bisselle zhargona.

Hmmm, you love Kindzmarauli so you MUST love *very* fine young Ports with a rich fruity nose.

What about “Usakhelauri” — much vaunted — has Okhuri in the Racha-Lechkhumi district North West of “Ossettia”? Said to be great.

Aug 20, 2008 - 11:50 pm 87. Konyok:

I haven’t tried it yet, fedya, but I will be sure to add it to my list.

Usually, I’m not so fond of sweet wine, but these Georgian wines don’t cloy.

That dry Saperavi is simply excellent. I read that they are planting the grape in New York and in Australia. Noble fruit!

Aug 20, 2008 - 11:55 pm 88. Annoy Mouse:

How I read that after further thought is this; He is the president of a small republic (not stepping down) and being backed up by a very big friend that has the capability to back up that threat with credible force. Saakashvili has been coached to lay a little low with the rhetoric and let “doplomacy” work. We are all playing this for the consumption of the Europeans. This is thier back yard too.

Aug 21, 2008 - 12:01 am 89. Jim,MtnViewCA,USA:

“One problem in placing these anti-missile systems in Poland…” and so on.
Dang!
If only we could rearrange the map and put France, Belgium, Spain, Germany and Norway next to Russia.
The Poles are good people. if only we could throw some of the useless Euros to the bear…

Aug 21, 2008 - 12:02 am 90. Annoy Mouse:

“doplomacy” – Freudian slip.

Aug 21, 2008 - 12:03 am 91. buddy larsen:

“duhplomacy”

Aug 21, 2008 - 12:09 am 92. Annoy Mouse:

“Doh!plomacy”

Aug 21, 2008 - 12:12 am 93. 2x4:

The latest Russian figure of casualties (dead) in Tskhinvali is indeed 133.
There were about 6,000 Georgians living in the S Ossetia proper before the conflict. A few escaped to Georgian territory. No one knows what happened to the rest, but according to reports, at least some Georgian villages seem to be now gone, razed to the ground.

Aug 21, 2008 - 12:16 am 94. fedya:

@wretchard:
The only after August 18 US government statements on Georgia I can find make no mention of any commitment to U.S. advisors extending their stay. Nothing but “Rice pudding”, if I may.

Note: State Dept. has “country information” links on page one for: Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, North Korea, Pakistan, Sudan, but NOT GEORGIA.

…and their Georgia page is mum:
http://www.state.gov/p/eur/ci/gg/

Over at Defense: nothing more than Bush’s “humanitarian assistance” and “strong support”:
http://www.defenselink.mil/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=50879

DoD mentions facts about the humanitaritootin airlift:
http://www.defenselink.mil/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=50855

…but apparently it’s all instantly teleported from Ramstein to Tbilisi, no mention of Batumi, or US air over the Lesser Caucasus, or Turkey…

Aug 21, 2008 - 12:19 am 95. Annoy Mouse:

I’m not sure what you do to Georgian war criminals but Russian war criminals should be sentenced to spend the rest of their life in a god forsaken place, they should be sent home.

Aug 21, 2008 - 12:24 am 96. buddy larsen:

So, the Georgian army pre-planned and executed a surprise attack light enough to’ve caused but 133 SO KIA, but made no effort to remove or at least alert 6,000 nearby fellow Georgians, civilians, from reprisals by what they knew to be heavily-armed and deadly SO militias enraged by the attack, and so lightly degraded numerically? Some deliberate ethnic cleansing!

Aug 21, 2008 - 12:25 am 97. buddy larsen:

ha ha –Doh!plomacy –Ambassador Homer Simpskashvili

Aug 21, 2008 - 12:30 am 98. Annoy Mouse:

Well if you look into Putins eyes, ya know, trust him. I hope he becomes democratic detritis like Carter, annoying but harmless. He is pissing in some pretty serious soup here.

Aug 21, 2008 - 12:33 am 99. buddy larsen:

he damn sure is. here’s something encouraging, re merkel of germany. she grew up in east germany. vlad began his career as a spook in east germany. the two probably understand each other well. and she is not afraid.

Aug 21, 2008 - 12:39 am 100. 2x4:

Buddy, it seems that the intent of Georgian Army was to assist to SO Georgians in evacuation and expected to have 12 hours time frame, but it seems that they underestimated either the speed or the degree of advancement of Russian forces.

Aug 21, 2008 - 12:42 am 101. fedya:

@buddy larsen:
I don’t keep track of my sources, so I can’t really substantite this more than to say there was a lot of chaotic movement throughout South “Ossettia” the “day before” and for several days after the day that Georgia “bombarded” Tskhinvali.

My take is that they had known for weeks what was coming and knew it would come down the pike the next day. Georgian troops in Ossettia had two missions: first, to destroy Russian command centers and communications/key bridges in and near Tskhinvali, and, second, to assist ethnic Georgians to escape where possible in that patchwork place. Other than that their mission was to fall back under fire in good order.

This they did. Breathless tales of their “route” seem to me to be pure bunk. Wht is amazing is how well they carried it off. Now they are who knows where and they are thirsting for blood.

Here comes General Winter…

Aug 21, 2008 - 12:43 am 102. bobal:

If only we could rearrange the map and put France, Belgium, Spain, Germany and Norway next to Russia.

Good idea, but I take exception to Norway. And, I notice you didn’t add Sweden to your list, as you mustn’t.

Aug 21, 2008 - 12:46 am 103. Annoy Mouse:

“That is creating in European capitals a new critical mass that views Russia as a problem rather than a partner.”

About as far as I got but thanks for the link. Merkel is turning into the right person at the right time in Germany. Schroeder was an example of a PoMo communist sympathizer gone amok. I know I’d be pretty sore if Bill Clinton started lobbying for PRC.

Aug 21, 2008 - 12:46 am 104. bobal:

I read somewhere that the Russians used some newer tanks, that they had brought down from the north. If that is so it was pre-plannd.

Aug 21, 2008 - 12:51 am 105. Lifeofthemind:

Why couldn’t the Georgians blow the tunnel?

Aug 21, 2008 - 12:54 am 106. Annoy Mouse:

Yeah and that operation; “lets practice invading Georgia” was quite a coincidence too.

Aug 21, 2008 - 12:54 am 107. 2x4:

Annoy Mouse:

Yeah and that operation; “lets practice invading Georgia” was quite a coincidence too.

When was that, mid-july, right?

They seem to be following the 1968 script with uncanny closeness. With exception of kidnapping Saakashvili, which may still be their intent.

Aug 21, 2008 - 12:59 am 108. 2x4:

Lifeofthemind, the tunnel was likely secured by Russians from both sides at the time. Just a guess, but with a 99% probability.

Aug 21, 2008 - 1:02 am 109. Lifeofthemind:

Annoy,
Pure coincidence, could happen to anybody, the world is full of guys convincing their girls to dress like Poland so the guy can dress like Germany and invade them. Imagine the surprise of the Russians when the Summer resort they were expecting turned out to be overbooked.
/sarc

Aug 21, 2008 - 1:06 am 110. Annoy Mouse:

They are doing the worldly thing with Saakashvili by demanding his resignation. They may get that yet but, somehow, I see it as mocking the US doctrine of regime change with regards to Saddam. Its a geopoliticaltit-for-tat. You invaded a country and disposed their leader. We’re just doing the same in our own best interests. Watch this turn into Bush’s fault. The power of global BDS has enough momentum to feed the usefull-djiots on both sides of the pond.

Aug 21, 2008 - 1:07 am 111. V.B.Bart:

@Cpt. Charles: “Iran: judgment day is coming their way. Ironically, Russia’s actions in Georgia have opened that door. The EU’s current priorities are modifying even as we blog about it…”
Aug 20, 2008 – 7:33 pm

@Fred: “A major, critical blow to Russian ambitions would be an operation to “de-claw” Iran.” Aug 20, 2008 – 9:57 pm

Yet if we are to believe Caroline Glick’s latest column in The Jerusalem Post, “Our World: Iran’s American Protector”, the U.S. is doing everything possible to stop Israel from acting against Iran, let alone acting against Iran on our own. Her contentions seemed to be supported today by an article saying that the U.S. has declined to sell Israel the Boeing 767 jets Defense Minister Barak requested last month when he was in Washington. The 767’s could be used for the mid-air refueling most Israeli fighters would require in order to strike Iran.

Despite President Bush’s tough talk about Iran in general, and especially while he was in Israel not long ago, the reality of the matter is that he has chosen, up to now, for whatever reason, to allow his administration to be taken down the Brzezinski-Gates-Council On Foreign Relations-James Baker Commission Iran appeasement path. Sad but true: the actions of the Bush Administration contradict the President’s words. Will this change because of Russia’s actions in Georgia? Time will tell…..

Aug 21, 2008 - 1:23 am 112. buddy larsen:

the 1000 tanks were just hangin out drag racing in the tunnel, when suddenly their cannons start firing

Aug 21, 2008 - 1:29 am 113. buddy larsen:

Clausewitz called it “the Fogov war”

Aug 21, 2008 - 1:34 am 114. cjm:

looks like putin will have to spend lots of oil profits trying to deflect u.s. moves on multiple fronts. we bankrupted them once, we can do it again.

i ask again, if a pakistani nuke goes off in moscow, who do they retaliate against?

Aug 21, 2008 - 1:41 am 115. Fletcher Christian:

Re AZM’s comment (point 4) and others: There is a way of getting both non-oil energy and a missile defense shield, the latter for a relatively small cost because the costs have already been paid by the former. The same method gives those who have it near-unstoppable weapons, as well, to punish evildoers.

Read “High Frontier” and “The Moon is a Harsh Mistress” for details. The first was published three decades ago and the latter fifty years ago or more. We could have had energy independence, with other benefits as well, by now; and 9/11, both Gulf Wars and the current war in Georgia would never have happened. Why in the name of all that’s holy doesn’t the USA (the only people who have the money) get started – RIGHT NOW ??

I don’t suppose that he will read it, but I hereby issue an appeal to Mr. Gates. Stop sending billions to Switzerland via African dictatorships, and establish some sort of fund for “blue-sky” stuff like SPS. If that works, we can feed the starving in Africa (and other places as well) out of petty cash.

Aug 21, 2008 - 2:10 am 116. Bob Murphy:

One thing we ought to keep in mind is that yes the US needs to stop being junkie to ME oil.
But that is not going to have much of an effect on all those freaks, cro-magnons and thugs with the oilfields because of the rising demand from China and India.
So we can stop being junkies but that ain’t gonna punish the oil producers, at least not until we develop new technology that decouples GNP from the price of oil and gas and pass it on to the Chinese and Indians.

Aug 21, 2008 - 2:46 am 117. bobal:

I think Buddy’s explanation is the only possible one. Those dang tanks just had a mind of their own, like Stephen King’s ‘Christine’. Just took off headin’ south, firing away, preternatural.

Aug 21, 2008 - 2:48 am 118. Starko:

Wretchard, as Konyok already pointed out, the BBC article you linked to was apparently from 2004 (easy overlooked).

My question is, what does that mean in light of the fact that the Russians invaded anyway?

Aug 21, 2008 - 4:21 am 119. Sobieski:

I would like to hear the Belmont Club’s take on the following article from the Wall Street Journal.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121928439171059051.html?mod=rss_opinion_main

Is it possible that we’ve underestimated the Bear?

Aug 21, 2008 - 5:11 am 120. Doug:

“I know I’d be pretty sore if Bill Clinton started lobbying for PRC.”
—
Mouse,
It’s worse than that already:
The Marxist has hired Bill and the corrupt thugs from his administration to lobby for La Raza.

Aug 21, 2008 - 5:14 am 121. Doug:

Obama forms advisory group focused on Latinos
Sen. Barack Obama moved this week to bolster his edge over Sen. John McCain in courting Latino voters, announcing a national Latino advisory council with heavyweights including Henry Cisneros, housing secretary under President Bill Clinton, and Clinton transportation secretary Federico Peña.

Aug 21, 2008 - 5:15 am 122. Hope Muntz:

RAH is a ringer. Analyze his posts linguistically and you’ll conclude that he isn’t a native English speaker.

Aug 21, 2008 - 5:16 am 123. Dan:

I remember reading an article a few days ago in which a Georgian commander was quoted as saying that “the tunnel” was their goal… they were trying to cut off access from Russia.

This implies they knew the Bear was coming, but it also hints that the speed of the invasion surprised the Georgians. So… they were gonna throw the bums out of SO and destroy the tunnel.

But they simply ran out of time because of those darned tanks.

Aug 21, 2008 - 5:20 am 124. Dan:

Fascinating article in the Asia Times:

…According to one report, the prime minister of the secessionist South Ossetia administration is a cousin of Mikhail Fradkov, who was Russia’s prime minister from 2004 to 2007 and now heads Russia’s state Foreign Intelligence Service (usually referred to by its Russian initials, SVR)…

…Still, equity markets loathe uncertainty, and the Russian market is no exception. That is why there is unlikely to be any recovery in Moscow for at least a month or two…

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/JH22Ag01.html

Aug 21, 2008 - 5:28 am 125. bobal:

RAH may be a ringer, whatever that is, but what he says makes some sense–

RAH:

The big strategic mistake that Bush and Rumsfeld did was not to massively increase our Army and military personnel when we decided that we had to go to war.

Aug 21, 2008 - 5:32 am 126. Doug:

The Russians remind the World that US is not all that bad afterall.

Aug 21, 2008 - 6:26 am 127. Teresita:

Sobieski: Is it possible that we’ve underestimated the Bear?

Russia is giving up on trying to maintain conventional parity with the US and banking everything on maintaining a nuclear arsenal to threaten people with. Very stupid. First use of even a single tactical nuke against the US or our interests will result in a rapidly escalating atomic tit-for-tat which could well result in a full nuclear exchange, while with conventional forces the US can do everything from regime change in Iraq to throwing out a full-scale invasion of Kuwait. Its the difference between a garage full of different power tools, and another one with nothing but dynamite.

Aug 21, 2008 - 6:29 am 128. 2x4:

Hope Muntz, am not a native English speaker either. I really started to learn English at age 30, while waiting in Latina and Capua (Italy) refugee camps for entry to Canada, June-October 1984. Could read and somewhat write by the end, but boy, it took me a while to make a sense of the spoken lingo!

I still do commit Czechisms here and there, after all these years. Fortunately, gotten myself a native speaking wifey in mid-90s and we agreed she’ll correct me mercilessly… that really helped a lot.

OTOH, I also speak decent Cat.

Maybe I should brush upon my rusty Russian, I have a feeling that it may be needed, since I’ve spent some 9 years learning it (or pretending I were learning it–it was mandatory, but everyone hated it, teachers inclusive) when I was a kid.

Aug 21, 2008 - 6:32 am 129. Doug:

If it is to survive, NATO needs to do more

It is no surprise then that “New Europe” is now the most frantic to find a viable defense for itself. “New Europe” has traditionally looked to “Old Europe” for an alliance. But Old has repeatedly betrayed New, and looks set to do so again.

According to the CIA Factbook, the combined population of the former Warsaw Pact/USSR countries in eastern Europe and the Caucasus (excluding Belarus) is 162.5 million, compared to Russia’s 140.7 million. Combined GDP for this group is $1,290 billion, compared to Russia’s $1,286 billion. In theory at least, the now-free countries in eastern Europe and the Caucasus have the combined population and economic output to rival Russia. And this does not take into account Russia’s defense responsibilities in central Asia, against China, and in the Pacific.

“New Europe” will find a way to defend itself. Breaking away from NATO might be the answer. Is this the outcome leaders in Berlin, Brussels, Paris, and London want?

Aug 21, 2008 - 6:39 am 130. Doug:

“gotten myself a native speaking wifey in mid-90s”
—
2×4,
Well, you’ll certainly never be accused of robbing the cradle!

Aug 21, 2008 - 6:43 am 131. RAH:

Interesting news That a US missile destroyer and Coast Guard cutter is in transit to the Black Sea. Apparently Turkey has approved.
http://www.geotimes.ge/index.php?m=home&newsid=12076

Aug 21, 2008 - 6:56 am 132. Doug:

A Multitude of Good Georgia Links

“It looks like they’re relocating from urban areas to different positions that would enable them to control the country’s economy,” Saakashvili said. Russian troops still hold all entrances to Gori, a major crossroads between east and west Georgia, and won’t allow Georgian officials into the city, Interior Ministry spokesman Shota Utiashvili said by phone.

NATO Relations…

Aug 21, 2008 - 6:59 am 133. 2x4:

Doug, creating a Central-Eastern European alliance may be a godsend. They are much more resilient to Islamization than Western Europe (the memory of Turkish sweeps for janissary supply is still fresh and passed through folklore). In the end, that may be what would be left from Europe if Western Europeans do not a grip of themselves.

never be accused of robbing the cradle
Definitely not. We were just 11 years apart.

Aug 21, 2008 - 7:06 am 134. Brock:

It’s good there’s a tripwire. It’s a shame the tripwire has to be American. The 27-nation EU has a €12 trillion economy, accounting for 31% of global output. Their technology is second to none. An EU military would so out-class anything the Russians could bring to bear that Napolean’s march would be easy this time around.

I’m not suggesting that the EU invade Russia, but it’s time that economic union pays for a little self defense that is united. A united EU military tripwire in Poland and the Baltics would stop Russia in its tracks. And once Ukraine is admitted …

Aug 21, 2008 - 7:06 am 135. 2x4:

PIMF… do not get a grip

Aug 21, 2008 - 7:08 am 136. Annoy Mouse:

“Its the difference between a garage full of different power tools, and another one with nothing but dynamite.”

Funny but true Teresita.

Aug 21, 2008 - 7:10 am 137. Annoy Mouse:

“Two U.S. Navy ships, including a guided missile destroyer USS McFaul, and a U.S. Coast Guard cutter are getting underway to transport humanitarian assistance supplies to Georgia”

Aid comes in the way of a very pointy stick.

Aug 21, 2008 - 7:11 am 138. 2x4:

RAH, rather very interesting. When the Ahmanutjobs’ visit went bust, I thought that Turks may come to their senses. Who needs Russians at their border if that can be easily avoided?

Aug 21, 2008 - 7:13 am 139. Doug:

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, speaking on CNN, questioned whether Medvedev’s promises of a pullout can be trusted.

“First, his troops were going to be out on Monday, then his troops were going to be out on Wednesday, now his troops are going to be out on Friday,” Rice said. “I’m beginning to wonder if the Russian president is ever going to keep his word, or can he keep his word, or what is going on there?”
—
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who is visiting Russia, said he “understands” Russia’s military response in Georgia.
“ We think this was a reaction to a provocation from the Georgian side.”

“We would like once more to express our support for the Russian position in the recent conflict and the situation around Abkhazia and South Ossetia,” Assad said during a meeting with Medvedev in Sochi. “We understand the essence of the Russian position. The position is clear and logical.”

Obama Adviser Meets With Syria

Tony Badran, an expert on Lebanon and Syria for the Defense of Democracies, was not surprised Kurtzer was meeting with the Syrians. He likened the meeting to other informal lobbying efforts done on Syria’s behalf.

“It’s not a secret that the Syrians are openly banking on Barack Obama,” Badran told the Sun.

Aug 21, 2008 - 7:17 am 140. 2x4:

So, where? Batumi? Poti (Where are our humvees? Return them back pronto!)?

Aug 21, 2008 - 7:19 am 141. Doug:

The purpose-driven lie

BARACK OBAMA – SHEEP OR GOAT

Aug 21, 2008 - 7:31 am 142. 2x4:

“It’s not a secret that the Syrians are openly banking on Barack Obama,” Badran told the Sun.

The keyword here may be <b<banking.

Aug 21, 2008 - 7:32 am 143. whiskey:

Wretchard, I think you fundamentally underestimate Putin and do not understand the game he is playing.

As I’ve blogged, Putin is playing out the plot from “Yojimbo,” “Red Harvest” (the Dashiell Hammett novel) and “Last Man Standing.”

Putin’s goal, like a “24″ heavy, is to push the US and Iran into war, over control of the Gulf, possibly with Iran having and using (through deniable proxies like AQ and/or Hezbollah) nukes. It’s why Putin is helping Iran with nukes.

Then, unlike the Continental Op, Putin won’t clean up the town. He’ll run it. NATO (which is just the US) committed to fighting Iran will allow Putin to roll right over Poland, up and into Germany if he wants. Which will then be forced to come to terms for Putin’s oil and gas prices. Putin has no Communist Ideology. He doesn’t care about ruling the world.

He just wants to get his piece of every action. Think a smart Tony Soprano with nuclear weapons who wants to control and get paid for all the oil/gas going into Western Europe. That’s his play. It’s probably required to pay off his thugs more than an alternative leader.

He’s not backing down. The US will be forced to, since it can’t fight all over at once. Particularly with a constantly downsized Navy and defeatist Democratic Party wanting utopian schemes for energy and waging war against the middle class. The US fighting in Pakistan, Iran, and other places in and around the Gulf leaves Moscow a free hand in Central Asia and Eastern Europe.

Did I mention Putin’s scheme to have Russians move out of cities to villages? Spread out? Where they are relatively invulnerable to nukes (unlike highly urbanized America, Europe, Japan, and China)? Russia can well live in a nuclear proliferated world is Putin’s gamble, that’s why he is pushing it along. America, mostly can’t.

Aug 21, 2008 - 7:39 am 144. S:

The World War I analogy someone articulated ysterday seems apt. Analogies? Differences?

Aug 21, 2008 - 7:41 am 145. RAH:

The US is using a series of delicate tripwires. US General of European Command in Tbilisi to access the “humanitarian situation”. A missile destroyer and coast guard cutter to provide humanitarian supplies to Poti to open the port. C17 flights in Georgia. Notice how the Russian air force withdrew for several days once C17’s staring to arrive. Now Russian aircraft is mostly helicopter and over the western section of Georgia. Delicate encouragement by military forces that by themselves cannot effectively assert military offensive operations. But any action against them may activate Article 5?

Russian sources said they expect American ships to arrive by end of August. The US is offering the Russians the opportunity to retreat and maintain face but they must do so soon.

Russia can enjoy its opportunity to rampage throughout western Georgia for a while. But they have to retreat soon to Abkhazia and S. Ossetia. In the meantime the insults such as asking for Russian papers to people traversing the Georgian state.

Russia will expand the borders of the separatist states and dare anyone to try to challenge the new borders. Russia will upgrade military facilities and keep the SS21 in Abkhazia to threaten Tbilisi in the future.

As long as the east west corridor is open for trade and the ports open, the US will accept the new reality. Georgia will have to accept that the gamble to get the separatist areas back has failed.

I expect that a rapid upgrade of US military facilities to Romania will be soon since that is a Black Sea country. The German pipeline under the Black Sea will be delayed or the plan will be rejected now since costs to Western oil companies with possible military conflicts in the future will be too high.

Aug 21, 2008 - 7:41 am 146. 2x4:

Whiskey, one assumption in your scenario is likely incorrect. The strike on Iran would be just that–a strike. No nation-building, no massive ground invasion. Just pinpoint strikes against suspected nuclear processing installations, IRG command center, and maybe some government targets. That’s it. In. Wreck. Out.

Aug 21, 2008 - 7:53 am 147. Sobieski:

Teresita:

“Russia is giving up on trying to maintain conventional parity with the US and banking everything on maintaining a nuclear arsenal to threaten people with. Very stupid. First use of even a single tactical nuke against the US or our interests will result in a rapidly escalating atomic tit-for-tat which could well result in a full nuclear exchange, while with conventional forces the US can do everything from regime change in Iraq to throwing out a full-scale invasion of Kuwait. Its the difference between a garage full of different power tools, and another one with nothing but dynamite.”

I like your analogy. It is for this reason that I believe that the US is the greatest country to ever grace this world. With its so called ‘power tools’, the US has the ability to help build a stable foundation for the disenfranchised, or defend their freedom if need be, while Russia’s capabilities are limited to scaring its neighbours into compliance, and extortion. Poland may not have all of the necessary tools, but due to its rather unfortunate history, it is more then willing to get its hands dirty in working together with nations, like the US, that have the material tools and will to uphold liberty and justice. I wish the same could be said for the rest of Europe, but unfortunetly that doesn’t seem to be the case. It looks like they’d rather live on their knees than die standing.

Aug 21, 2008 - 8:13 am 148. Sobieski:

Ugh, quite a few typos. I really should proof read my comments.

Aug 21, 2008 - 8:15 am 149. Lifeofthemind:

2×4,
So you admit it, you are a Chekisty!
/oh never mind

Aug 21, 2008 - 8:23 am 150. Konyok:

whiskey,

The fatal flaw of the Noam Chomsky critique of America is the ascription of omniscient omnipotence to the US govt. Every untoward event is explained by an evil plot to benefit some malevolent *interest.*

There is the same flaw in your suggestion that Putin is scheming to move the Russian population out of cities and into the countryside. Certainly Putin has fewer limits on his power than Bush, but, equally certainly Putin has less confidence that his orders will actually be carried out.
The current oil boom has stimulated the economies of Russia’s major cities, but the countryside remains gripped in a great depression. Decollectivization has proven almost as devastating as collectivization was. The last couple of decades have seen an incredible migration of rural people to the cities. None of them will willingly leave paid jobs and return to the despair of the Russian village.

Grand strategic moves can’t get too far ahead of banal realities. The urbanization of Russia continues apace. Putin must keep his eye on the Russian stock market, which continues to rise at every suggestion of withdrawal and to drop at every hint of more military adventures.

Aug 21, 2008 - 8:24 am 151. Mike Sylwester:

Wretchard:
“The affair in Georgia was never about South Ossetia for Moscow. It was about being able to assert their regional hegemony. ”
————

We don’t have space here to look back centuries, but let’s glance back a couple of decades in order to critically examine a presumption that Russia simply concocted this issue just a couple months ago as a tactical strategem in the current power plays.

About 19 years ago, on November 10, 1989 (more than two years before the dissolution of the Soviet Union), the South Ossetian Supreme Soviet approved a decision to unite South Ossetia with the North Ossetian Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic. A day later, the Georgian SSR Supreme Soviet revoked the decision.

On 20 September 1990 (more than a year before the dissolution of the USSR), the South Ossetian Autonomous Oblast declared independence as the South Ossetian Democratic Soviet Republic, appealing to Moscow to recognise it as an independent subject of the Soviet Union. When the election of the Georgian Supreme Council took place in October 1990, it was boycotted by the South Ossetians.

On December 10, 1990, South Ossetia held its own elections, which Georgia had declared to be illegal. A day later, the Georgian Supreme Soviet canceled the results of the Ossetian elections and abolished South Ossetian autonomy.

On the night of 5 January 1991, Georgian forces entered Tskhinvali. The fighting in Tskhinvali first resulted in a divided town: An Ossetian-controlled western part and a Georgian-controlled eastern part. Towards the end of January, the Georgians withdrew to the hills around the city according to the Russian-mediated ceasefire.

On 29 January 1991, the Speaker of the South Ossetian Supreme Soviet, Torez Kulumbegov was invited to the negotiations in Tbilisi, but was immediately arrested and charged with inciting ethnic hatred. His trial had been postponed several times before he was released in December 1991.

All the preceeding events happened while Russia and Georgia were part of the Soviet Union, which fell apart in August 1991.

In September 1991 Georgia imposed economic blockade on the rebel region: It disconnected electricity supplies to Tskhinvali and blocked the road by which the city received food and other products. The Ossetians blockaded Georgian villages and several atrocities occurred on both sides. The fighting left hundreds killed and wounded, which created approximately 80,000 refugees on the both sides of the Georgian-Russian border. Georgian forces sat in the hills around Tskhinvali and besieged the city.

On 24 June 1992, Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze and Russian President Boris Yeltsin met to discuss the question of South Ossetia. A ceasefire was agreed upon and on 14 July 1992, a peacekeeping operation began, consisting of a Joint Control Commission and joint military patrols of Georgians, Russians and Ossetians (North and South Ossetians).

That narrative recounts the developments only up to the situation that existed 16 years ago. Allow me to post more details, and I will continue this historical narrative to the present. I think, though, that this brief history should convince some people here that the Russians do indeed think that this conflict between Ossetia and Georgia is real and that Russia has been involved legitimately.

The above information, and more, about this history is from
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgian-Ossetian_conflict

Aug 21, 2008 - 8:27 am 152. 2x4:

Sobieski, worry not, it came out as intended, typos notwithstanding.

Speaking of your nick… I used it in several forums, but then settled on 2×4, or cluebat in some places (pacifist-aggressive, LOL!). Sooo, yea, it’s yours to carry, do it a justice.

Aug 21, 2008 - 8:27 am 153. buddy larsen:

But he ius a tough Chek –11 years older than a wife in her mid 90s, he must over 105 years old & still kickin’ ass!

Aug 21, 2008 - 8:29 am 154. Doug:

Whiskey said…
“. To the degree that Russia can move people into dispersed villages instead of cities, nukes are a far LESS threat than to the highly urbanized West and China. If most Russians live in villages spread out, then Moscow and St. Petersberg are not very good targets. They can be destroyed, which would hurt Russia, but not as mortally as the loss of DC, Paris, London, Rome, NYC, Shanghai, and Beijing would hurt the west and China.”
—
Tim Newman said…
“Russia would be toast without Moscow. The whole place is so damned centralised that nobody can sneeze without first getting authorisation from Moscow.”

Aug 21, 2008 - 8:31 am 155. Doug:

Wifey would be…
Chekmate!

Aug 21, 2008 - 8:32 am 156. 2x4:

Mike S., Whether there are grievances or not is irrelevant, in the light what is going on. If it were only about Ossetia, Russkiye would simply pour in, secure the border and stay put there.

Obviously, that is not what happened, was it?

Aug 21, 2008 - 8:34 am 157. 2x4:

Wifey would be…
Chekmate!

LOL! And I were a bouncing Czech, then.

Aug 21, 2008 - 8:36 am 158. Doug:

2×4
Believe your lying eyes, or admit the truth as presented by Medvedev/Putin.

Aug 21, 2008 - 8:38 am 159. whiskey:

Konyok –

Two things. High oil prices can allow him to move people out to villages, by straight out cash grants. The reverse of Ahmadinejad’s plan to move rural villagers into big cities through cash grants.

Second, Putin does not care about the Stock Market, since his thug network don’t make money off it. That is for naive westerners.

Aug 21, 2008 - 8:40 am 160. 2x4:

Buddy, I wish I could be one day 105 and still a bouncing Czech!

But no, your math is wrong, mid-90s is 1995 and haven’t met anyone 2 millenia old, yet.

Aug 21, 2008 - 8:41 am 161. 2x4:

Whiskey, high oil prices are dropping due to market forces, stock market inclusive. You predicate your conclusion based on unsupportable premises.

Aug 21, 2008 - 8:44 am 162. 2x4:

Doug, my ability to trust Putins and Medvedevs was eroding already at the age of 9 and completely removed with finality at the age of 14. Sorry, my lying eyes is all I got now.

Aug 21, 2008 - 8:49 am 163. buddy larsen:

Czech émigré has appointment with optometrist, optometrist asks him if he can read the eye chart. Czech looks at chart, says, “Read it? Heck, I KNOW those people!”

Aug 21, 2008 - 8:54 am 164. 2x4:

Now, now, guys! Back on topic, will’ya?

Aug 21, 2008 - 8:58 am 165. jdwill:

In spite of the immediate fluctuations in the energy market, long term energy diversification is one key response to the Russian threat.

Good article by Paul Berman at TNR (who wrote a must read essay – Terror and Liberalism).

The key point A simple, adequate, tit-for-tat response to Russia’s invasion does not exist. An adequate response can only be complex, long-term, and global. We will have to recognize that, for the moment, questions of democratic principle, national security, and the energy crisis have decisively merged.

Aug 21, 2008 - 8:59 am 166. Mike Sylwester:

2×4:
“Mike S., Whether there are grievances or not is irrelevant, in the light what is going on. If it were only about Ossetia, Russkiye would simply pour in, secure the border and stay put there. Obviously, that is not what happened, was it? ”
———

Te dejiny se nikdy neprestaly. Ted’ my jeste vidim pokracovani tych starych dejin. Ale souhlasim, ze rukaky jdou prilis daleko.

Aug 21, 2008 - 9:00 am 167. buddy larsen:

2×4, good idea –this WSJ link from above, on the tac nuke gap, fills in a huge piece of missing info –very clarifying –very chilling.

Aug 21, 2008 - 9:04 am 168. Mike Sylwester:

… ze Rusacy jdou …

Aug 21, 2008 - 9:04 am 169. Sobieski:

2×4 said:

Sobieski, worry not, it came out as intended, typos notwithstanding.

Speaking of your nick… I used it in several forums, but then settled on 2×4, or cluebat in some places (pacifist-aggressive, LOL!). Sooo, yea, it’s yours to carry, do it a justice.”

Haha, thanks. I will definitely do the name justice. He’s one of my favourite historical figures. Without Sobieski’s contribution, the fate of Western Civilization may have been drastically different. Also, being of Polish ancestry myself, I hold the name in very high regard.

And for the record, I was born in Canada to 2 first generation immigrants that fled the state of martial law in Poland in ‘83, so I grew up listening to countless stories of communism and Soviet occupation, but never experienced it personally. I have nothing against Russian people per se, but I don’t feel to fondly about their leadership.

Aug 21, 2008 - 9:07 am 170. Dan:

This just in…. Russians are lying, treacherous b*stards. Film at 11.

http://www.smh.com.au/news/world/checkpoint-plan-revealed/2008/08/21/1219262412950.html

Aug 21, 2008 - 9:08 am 171. 2x4:

Mike, it’s kinda Polished Czech…

Here:
Dejiny nikdy nekonci. Co vidim je pokracovani starych dejin. Ale souhlasim ze Rusaci jdou prilis daleko.

Trasnsl.:
History never ends. What I see is the continuation of the old history. However, I agree that Russkis are going too far.

Aug 21, 2008 - 9:13 am 172. Sobieski:

Ah, I was attempting to translate that sentence, but it’s only somewhat mutually intelligible to Polish and leaves a few gaps.

Aug 21, 2008 - 9:21 am 173. Eggplant:

Off topic: It’s dawning on some of the moonbats that B. Hussein might(?) not be the Messiah. They are starting to show some fear (amid lots of the usual mindless shrieking), refer to:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jeff-madrick/obamas-tragic-campaign-ou_b_120361.html

It’s vital that McCain be very careful now. It would be a catastrophe if the Democrats jettisoned the Chosen One during the convention and replaced him with a viable candidate. First Hussein must be anointed as their presidential candidate and given lots of rope THEN the trap door can be sprung.

Aug 21, 2008 - 9:35 am 174. Teresita:

Whiskey: Did I mention Putin’s scheme to have Russians move out of cities to villages? Spread out? Where they are relatively invulnerable to nukes (unlike highly urbanized America, Europe, Japan, and China)? Russia can well live in a nuclear proliferated world is Putin’s gamble, that’s why he is pushing it along. America, mostly can’t.

You don’t remain an industrialized power by trying that Great Leap Forward crap. When everyone is playing “Duck & Cover” by moving out to the country at the behest of a central planning authority, no one is making money. But if anything, Russia has always been MORE vulnerable to nukes because all their eggs are in the Metropolitan Moscow basket. In America the government is “of the people, by the people”, so it can be reconstituted anywhere even if Washington DC is taken out.

Aug 21, 2008 - 9:39 am 175. Konyok:

pani 2×4, Sobieski y Sylwester;

You demonstrate something important to keep in mind when we broaden our gaze from Georgia to Ukraine.

Where does Czech end and Polish begin?
Where does Russian end and Ukrainian begin?
It’s not a trivial question.
If one were to draw a line from Rostov to Krakow a smooth linguistic continuum would be revealed. There are no sharp lines; Russian grades into Ukrainian which grades into Polish. Turn west at Kyiv and the endpoint is Slovak and Czech.

Ukraine is not sharply defined. Unlike most countries which take their official language from the dialect of the capital, Ukraine recognizes the dialect of Lwiw, that portion of the country which was ruled by the Austro-Hungarian Empire. A significant portion of the country views itself as Russian, even if their dialect is a bit hinky to muscovite ears.

The implicit gamble has always been that if Ukraine aligns itself with the west, then affluence will follow. The embarrassing fact is that Ukraine has not only fallen far behind Poland in its economic development, it is now falling behind oil rich Russia.

If there is time, before Russia begins moving against Ukraine, it is mandatory that Ukraine receive a massive economic stimulus.

Aug 21, 2008 - 9:46 am 176. buddy larsen:

Teresita, a 5000 to 500 advantage in tactical (“battlefield”) nukes means that there is an entire new nuke stand off hidden underneath the twin strategic umbrellas. How the dickens did this slip under the radar –?

Aug 21, 2008 - 9:49 am 177. buddy larsen:

Meanwhile back at the ranch, Obama (ht drudge) sends an unmistakable diplomatic signal: (snip)

“She will follow in the dubious footsteps of her colourful grandfather, Joseph, an arch-appeaser of Hitler who committed political sucide when, in 1940, he declared: “Democracy is finished in England, it may be here (in the USA).”

Aug 21, 2008 - 9:59 am 178. Lifeofthemind:

Konyak,
European borders are recent, populations spread out as medieval villages along trade routes mixing all the way from the Atlantic to the Caucasus. On the West edge, before radio broadcasting and central government standardized education forced conformity on populations, it was possible to move from village to village going East from Amsterdam or Rotterdam and slowly find yourself transitioning from Dutch to German. Similarly in Southern Italy the Neapolitan hinterlands were still speaking the Greek of Magna Graecea at the begining of the 20th century.

Aug 21, 2008 - 10:02 am 179. Eggplant:

Konyok said:

“If one were to draw a line from Rostov to Krakow a smooth linguistic continuum would be revealed. There are no sharp lines; Russian grades into Ukrainian which grades into Polish…”

This is true for all of Europe. I don’t speak Russian but know (or knew) a little German. Get on the train in Hannover and almost everyone is speaking Hochdeutsch (high German). As the train goes east, the original Hanover passengers get off and locals climb on board speaking their local dialect (Plattdeutsch). The dialect gets more and more rustic as the train goes west. Eventually, I can’t understand what anyone is saying as the train approaches the border between Germany and the Netherlands (almost everyone is speaking Dutch). Riding European trains is a great way to experience the local dialects.

Aug 21, 2008 - 10:07 am 180. Eggplant:

Arrgh! I said “As the train goes east” and should have said “As the train goes west”. I wish there was a way I could edit these comments after I post them (some blogs allow that).

Aug 21, 2008 - 10:10 am 181. narciso:

Fletcher, if people complain about anti-ballistic missile platforms and satellites,
rail guns and hyper sonic lunar catapults would create much more controversy. Getting to the Moon, in order to mine H3 for fusion is a good idea though.

General Nagovitsyn, the one who threatened a nuclear attack on Poland’ BMD station; seems like a distressing loose cannon; this is his bio from the lenta. ru site.(run through Babelfish):

Chairman of the military science committee of the General Staff of armed forces RF – deputy chief of the general staff Chairman of the military science committee of the General Staff of armed forces RF – deputy chief of general staff since July 2008. Are earlier – the deputy of [glavkoma] of Air Force (2002-2008), which commands of the 11th army VVS and PVO (Air Defense) (2000-2002), chief of staff – first deputy of the commander of the army VVS and PVO in Far East (1998-2000). Anatoliy Alekseyevich [Nogovitsyn] [9], [10] was born on April 29, 1952 in the mudflow Of [baryshevka] Of the [borodolikhinskogo] region of Semipalatinsk region of Kazakh SSR [16], [10]. In 1973 [Nogovitsyn] with the difference graduated from The [armavirskoe] high military air school of pilots, and 1980 [16] – the military command academy PVO of the name of Zhukov [13]. It served in Arkhangelsk in the 10th army PVO and in the Siberian military district [10] on the flying and command posts: it was pilot, craft commander, commander of air squadron, deputy of air squadron, squadron commander, deputy commander of regiment for flight training, regiment-commander, chief of the aviation of housing PVO, deputy commander of housing PVO) [7]. In 1994 [Nogovitsyn] finished the military academy of General Staff [VS], it was after which appointed as the commander of the corps of air defense. In 1995 it held the position of the first deputy of the commander of the 11th independent army PVO in Khabarovsk, in 1998, when were combined VVS and PVO, chief of staff – the first deputy of the commander of the army VVS and PVO in the Far East [16], [10]. In the fall of 2000 lieutenant general [Nogovitsyn] by President’s Decree RF was appointed as the commander of the 11th army VVS and PVO [16]. It communicated that its predecessor at this post Of [uruzmag] Of [ogoev] was discharged in the reserve after the official investigation of ” on the facts of the crude violations in the financial-economic activity and of abuse of the official of [polozheniem]” (officially – on reaching of the age limit of a stay on the military service [17], [9]. Soon after the designation Of [nogovitsyna] commanding several combat aircraft Su-24[MR] of the composition of the 11th army (according to others data, Russian fighters Su-24 and Su-27 [15]) knew how to complete the demonstrative circling of the American aircraft carrier Of kitty Of hawk in Sea of Japan [9]. After the month the representatives [Petagona] officially recognized the fact of ” conditional of [unichtozheniya]” the American aircraft carrier: it communicated that on October 12,17 and on November 9 the Russian aircraft approached Kitty Of hawk, after flying in all in several hundred meters from the conning tower. Became known and the fact that through several weeks after last circling onboard Kitty Of hawk the alien electronic communication, in which were contained the photographs of the deck of aircraft carrier, supplied with commentaries in the Russian language. Other details did not communicate [by 15]. In January 2002 General [Nogovitsyn] was assigned the deputy of the commander-in-chief of the Air Force RF [13]. Some media outlets then carried it to the number of candidates by the post of [glavkoma] [of 11], [14]. According to some data, the transfer Of [nogovitsina] became possible because of the assistance of Victor Ivanov, who was being herself in that period the assistant of the President of Russia Vladimir Putin, of the chairman of the board of directors of the concern PVO of ” Diamond -[Antey]“. By indirect confirmation of this version of ” [Kommersant]” was called that the fact that precisely General [Nogovitsyn] presented VVS in the board of directors of the concern [of 11]. Already after an increase In [nogovitsyna], in April 2002, the audition comission of the Ministry of Defense RF revealed serious lack in the 11th army VVS and PVO, in particular, it was noted that ” fuel consumption in this army grew into more than 15 [raz]” , for which to General was declared the severe reprimand [12]. In 2003 To [nogovitsynu] was appropriated the title of colonel general [10], [9]. In July 2008 [Nogovitsin] was appointed as the chairman of the military science committee of the General Staff of armed forces RF – deputy chief of general staff [7] Nikolai Makarov [8]. In August the same year of that of afterward declared by President Dmitriy Medvedev the beginnings of the operation of ” on the compulsion to the peace in the zone of the Georgian- South-Ossetian of [konflikta]” [4] (subsequently media outlets spoke about ” coercion to [miru]” [5], [6], [3]) [Nogovitsyn] repeatedly came out in the press with the commentaries apropos of the actions of Russian army in the region [1], [2]. [Nogovitsyn] – candidate of military sciences [16], the deserved military pilot RF. It is rewarded with the Orders of the Red Star and ” For the servicemen of [zaslugi]” , by medals. It was noted that in the years of service they mastered more than 10 aircraft types, on which it flew on the whole more than 2800 hours [10]. The materials used [1] the substitute of the chief of Russian general staff Anatoliy [Nogovitsyn] refuted information about the fact that the General Vladimir [Shamanov] was assigned to the post of the commander of the group of the Russian troops in Abkhaziya. – Echo of Moscow, 12.08.2008 [2] the Russian troops did not seize the city of Gori. – KM.ru, 12.08.2008 [3] Natalia [Kostenko], Kir [Latukhina]. In Moscow on business, urgently. – Vedomosti, 11.08.2008. – ?148 (2170) [4] Dmitriy Medvedevs met with Minister of Defense Anatoliy [Serdyukov] and chief of the General Staff Of the [vooruzhennykh] forces Nikolai Makarov. – The President of Russia, 09.08.2008 [5] Dmitriy Medvedev: Russia accomplishes an operation on the coercion to the peace in South Osetia. – [IA] REGNUM, 09.08.2008 [6] Russian peacemakers approached the operation on the coercion of Georgian side to the peace. – Interfax, 09.08.2008 [7] cadre designations. – The Red Star, 04.07.2008. – 115 [8] Nikolai Makarov replaced Yuri [Baluevskiy] at the post of the head of general staff. – RIA of the news, 03.06.2008 [9] I in pilots went… – The radios of Russia, 20.01.2006 [10] [Nogovitsyn] Anatoliy Alekseyevich. – Kommersant, 20.09.2005. – ? 176 (3260) [11] Ivan Safronovs. By central board VVS on

Aug 21, 2008 - 10:18 am 182. Mike Sylwester:

2×4:
“Dejiny nikdy nekonci. Co vidim je pokracovani starych dejin. Ale souhlasim ze Rusaci jdou prilis daleko.”
———

Thanks for the correction. I used to speak Czech fairly well and still read it well. I attended the University of Brno for a couple months in 1973. Now, though, I haven’t spoken it for a couple decades. And yes, it’s messed up by learning some Polish afterwards.

Aug 21, 2008 - 10:20 am 183. Mike Sylwester:

By the way, today is the 40th (that much time has passed!?) anniversary of the Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia.

Aug 21, 2008 - 10:24 am 184. bobal:

As for me I not losing any sleep over a tactical nuke gap. Not at my age.

Aug 21, 2008 - 10:36 am 185. Mike Sylwester:

Konyok:
“f one were to draw a line from Rostov to Krakow a smooth linguistic continuum would be revealed. There are no sharp lines; Russian grades into Ukrainian which grades into Polish. Turn west at Kyiv and the endpoint is Slovak and Czech.”
————

Quite true. As you travel criss-crossing that enormous area, the language is mutually intelligible as you move from town to town, even as you cross borders. If you grew up Slovak, which is linguistically kind of in the middle, you can travel through perhaps a fourth of Eurasia and communicate to a fair extent just by speaking your relatively obscure native language.

Aug 21, 2008 - 10:37 am 186. 2x4:

Mike, I lived in Brno, since I was 6 years old till my escape from behind iron curtain in 1984.

Yes, 40 years today and the bear haven’t changed a bit.

Aug 21, 2008 - 10:42 am 187. buddy larsen:

Bobal –you’re prob right –i was just framing the gap within Medvedev’s wording in his mid-July speech to his diplomatic corps –which we would never have heard unless we were intended to, of course.

Aug 21, 2008 - 10:49 am 188. Mike Sylwester:

There’s a girl in Brno I wanted to marry, Dagmar Kynclova? Was she still there in 1984?

Aug 21, 2008 - 10:49 am 189. OldSalt:

“The stool they’re smugly perched on has four obvious legs: oil, Iran, Syria, and Venezuela. It’d be a shame if one of those legs broke, wouldn’t it now… – CPT. Charles”

You touch on an important point: We’re in a new cold war, and many things that we once saw and independent are actually interconnected.

One of the defining characteristics of the “cold war” was that both sides had well defined strategic goals and objectives. We are only now deciphering Russian’s new “world view”. It obviously (i.e. obvious to anyone except the US State Department and the CIA) includes linkages to Iran, Syria, Venezuela, an probably includes oil and a primary control mechanism. In fact, has anyone considered the response Russian has promised vis-a-vis Poland? How about presenting a nasty set of problems for the U.S. South of her border (i.e. Cuba and Venezuala)? Quid-pro-Que – in Putin’s mind, I’m certain.

So, what is missing is the U.S. response to Russia’s new cold war, i.e. defining the foe, understanding his goals, and devising an offensive strategy to combat our foe. I’ve heard some saying that Putin is perhaps out of his league, i.e. that Georgia will have consequences he has not considered. To the contrary: I think he’s playing Chess on the world map. He’s way ahead of the West when it comes to setting the strategic goals of the new cold war Russia has launched. And, in fact, that war effort is probably 3 or 4 years old now, it’s just that the West has been slow to comprehend Putin’s goals. Georgia has made some of them unmistakable. I think Russia has war-gamed every conceivable part of the Georgian invasion, and has probably predicted about 90% of what has occurred, including the response of Europe and the U.S.. The timing definitely was planned so that Putin could consolidate his gains during the 6-9 month period of the American Presidential election and turnover of power.

The U.S. now needs to rethink everything. Can we afford to be part of a toothless NATO, with 80% of the countries firmly committed to pacifism? Old Europe is willing to rely 100% upon the US for material and manpower, while obstructing any US action in the defense new-Europe. Would the US be better served with a second treaty organization of states directly facing the Bear, or separate alliances such as that just struck by Poland? I think we definitely need to link everything that happens in Latin and South America to Russian goals. Chavez can no more be considered simply an annoyance. If Venezuela in included in the Russian axis, we definitely need to be prepared to respond to, say, Russian air and sea bases in Venezuela, perhaps with a nuclear component. Or, perhaps we’ll see a huge influx of Russian armor and aircraft into South American states in the Russian axis.

In sum: everything is different now, and most everything needs to be viewed through the eye glass of “what benefits Russia?”. The U.S. needs a full-cold-war-court-press against Russia, if only to constrain Putin’s ambitions. I believe Russian ambition knows no bounds. Anything that benefits Russian, the US must work to deny. And of course, if energy is a primary Russian strategic weapon, the U.S. must reduce the value of that weapon by attaining genuine energy independence, the capability at least, even if not realized due to a free energy market (i.e. oil is a commodity, and the USA will always buy cheap oil when available).

Aug 21, 2008 - 11:02 am 190. Peter Grynch:

What so many are failing to see is that Russia fears arms in Poland NOT because it is afraid Poland will invade Russia, but because it would make Poland harder to invade.

Aug 21, 2008 - 11:07 am 191. Konyok:

OldSalt,

No doubt that Russia’s ambitions have no bounds, but her means certainly do.

I suspect that the invasion of Georgia has taxed her resources more than we think, and this with dedicated internal lines of railroad communication.

However, Ukraine is vulnerable, and close.

The Russian-Ukraine friendship treaty expires in December of this year. The Ukrainian presidential election is in January of 2010. You can bet your butt that Volodya will increase the pressure on his western neighbor.

My linguistic detour was to underscore that almost 40% of Ukraine’s population is uncertain in their national identity. If a plebicite were held today, I guarantee that Crimea would choose anschluss with Mother Russia. The industrial Donbas of Eastern Ukraine would likely vote the same way.

Ukraine is a case for extreme soft power. Somehow those Russians living in Ukraine need to be convinced that they have a better future in a westernized Ukraine than in Putin’s Russia. So far, Kyiv has bungled it.

Aug 21, 2008 - 11:19 am 192. 2x4:

Speaking of language boundaries… There are numerous dialects all over place that are organically meshed together along borders.

Czech and Moravian dialects are rather close, with some pockets that have a unique character. Specifically Brno has a special dialect called Hantec (pron. hantets) that is not static and evolving all the time. It uses a lot of neologisms, a bit of czechized German and syntactical or structural constructs that are unintelligible to speakers from other parts of Czech Republic.

Czech and Slovak are mutually highly intelligible. Polish and Czech less so, but after some adjustments, you can carry conversation with little problem. Slovak may be a tiny bit more Intelligible to a Polish speaker. In eastern Slovakia, there is a lot of Rusins that speak a western version of an Ukrainian dialect. Still a high degree of commonality between Czech and Rusin. Further east you go, the more Russian influence you find and you encounter substantial shifts in meaning of words and words that are unknown.

You can see a similar continuity between Polish and Ukrainian dialects.

Similar pattern is present when you go south. Slovinian is fairly intelligible to a Czech or Slovak, although some hilarity may ensue–usually one can bridge it by reverting to more archaic word forms. Serbo-Croatian is a bit tougher, but a half dozen days and you get the gist of it. More south and east, Bulgarian dialects have a bit more common with Russian, but somewhat unique syntax. Give me 10 days and I’d be able to cover basics.

But, perhaps that’s me. During my stay in Italy, I was able to communicate fairly well in Italian at the time of my departure to Canada. Not much left of it, use it or lose it.

Aug 21, 2008 - 11:20 am 193. 2x4:

Mike, Dagmar Kynclova? Lemme see, population 350,000 people. Nope, never heard of her. Sorry.

Aug 21, 2008 - 11:23 am 194. Cannoneer No. 4:

fred,

The Kremlin is going to have to continue to rely on 18 to 19 year old draftee cannon fodder.

The war without a contract

The Russians were told by their leaders that only kontraktniki were fighting in Georgia. They were lied to.

Aug 21, 2008 - 11:27 am 195. Eggplant:

Narciso said:

“Getting to the Moon, in order to mine H3 for fusion is a good idea though.”

Alas, no it isn’t. The fusion cross sections for He3
are impossible to achieve with any near term controllable technology (however, we could in theory make He3 weapons). Unfortunately, mining He3 on the Moon is a pipe dream. We could mine metal on asteroids but before that becomes practical we need to first achieve cheap access to space (CAtS). At present, no one knows how to achieve CAtS (get launch costs under $1000/kg). Martian colonization is possible with current day (expensive) launch technology but the cost to colonize Mars would be comparable to the cost of a minor war (huge!).

Aug 21, 2008 - 11:29 am 196. Konyok:

And an interesting hint in the other direction, Azerbaijan …

http://www.roblong.com/default.cfm?module=fdblog&action=view&pk=36

Aug 21, 2008 - 11:33 am 197. bobal:

We need a space elevator.

Europe is a good argument for an English only amendment in America.

Aug 21, 2008 - 11:35 am 198. Michael McNeil:

Dang! If only we could rearrange the map and put France, Belgium, Spain, Germany and Norway next to Russia. The Poles are good people. if only we could throw some of the useless Euros to the bear…

Someone objected to including Norway in that set, a viewpoint with which I can sympathize, but it’s worth noting that of the lot, Norway already has a (almost 200 km) land border with Russia.

Aug 21, 2008 - 11:38 am 199. buddy larsen:

Old salt, it appears Putinism went hot after the 2006 USA election. This same election began the Great American Deleveraging, about which much more could be said re the forces always at the ready to exploit weakness –which American confidence in the future, as seen in aquisition of debt –surely had become.

related, see drudge –Obama will appoint Caroline Kennedy as ambassador to England. It’s being described as “to honor JFK”, and back-storied as to repay Uncle Ted’s early support.

But it also flashes a strong diplomatic signal: the previous Kennedy at the Court of St James was grandpa Joe –who got recalled due to his “we must appease Hitler” stance –which amounted to support for Hitler just before or just after the outbreak of WWII (i should search that point tho it isn’t critical). Not that he loved Hitler –he just thought Democracy could not stand against Dictatorship.

Aug 21, 2008 - 11:38 am 200. outa my league:

Buddy Larsen,

Bobal’s quip went right over your head…”tactical nuke gap”

Aug 21, 2008 - 11:39 am 201. Teresita:

buddy larsen:

Teresita, a 5000 to 500 advantage in tactical (”battlefield”) nukes means that there is an entire new nuke stand off hidden underneath the twin strategic umbrellas. How the dickens did this slip under the radar –?

Do you foresee a battle when we will expend all 500 of our tactical nukes, and have to fall back for want of more? Long before it comes to that, we will have gone to strategic bombing.

Aug 21, 2008 - 11:39 am 202. Fletcher Christian:

Narciso: If there is a base on the Moon capable of that sort of thing, run by the USA (or from my point view better, a Western coalition) then who the heck cares about what the thug, gangster and religious lunatic states think?

This little passage illustrates the point in a roundabout sort of way. I might not have it quite right. This is about half way through MIAHM, and the rebellion is in full swing:

“Mannie, I don’t think that we should hit that mountain again.” (Mike, the computer, is referring to Cheyenne Mountain.)

“Why is that, Mike?”

“Because it isn’t there any more.”

Aug 21, 2008 - 11:40 am 203. Teresita:

Bobal’s quip went right over your head…”tactical nuke gap”

“There were those of us who fought against it, but in the end we could not keep up with the expense involved in the arms race, the space race, and the peace race. At the same time our people grumbled for more nylons and washing machines. Our doomsday scheme cost us just a small fraction of what we had been spending on defense in a single year. The deciding factor was when we learned that your country was working along similar lines, and we were afraid of a doomsday gap.” — From Dr. Strangelove: Or How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love The Bomb.

Aug 21, 2008 - 11:45 am 204. Konyok:

Totten in Tblisi …

http://www.city-journal.org/2008/eon0820mt.html

Aug 21, 2008 - 11:48 am 205. bobal:

Mr. Russian Bear, who assured us all some days ago that the russian bear would be heading north next day, is conspicuous by his abscence around here.

Aug 21, 2008 - 11:49 am 206. buddy larsen:

Re Chavez, see Democrat Jimmy Carter, enabler.

Re Norway, see North Sea Oil, largest owner by far of Europe’s non-Russian supply.

Re Latin America, Hugo has added Paraguay and Bolivia to his alliances. Paraguay, where the keepers of the flame of Nazism reorganized post WWII, Bolivia, alternate cocaine supply what with USA ally Uribe fighting the product via fighting FARC in Colombia.

Re Colombia, Pelosi’s bete noir, which she is breaking unprecedented house rules (oh, how i wish there was a constitutional rule on house and senate rule-changing) to keep the Colombia Free Trade bill from a floor vote, a strangely huge expense of politcal capital to kill a type of bill that has always previously breezed thru congress, and on grounds (Colombia’s bad treatment of unions) that appear as mouse to the mountain that is USA’s failure on the glaring world stage to supprt an ally whom everyone knows is at war with next-door Chavez.

Re Chavez, just yesterday took over the Venezuelan cement industry, via snatching Mexico-owned Pemex plants. Slaps USA ally Mexico –which nearly had civil war in last election due to loser and Chavez ally making every attempt to foment –and makes large scale construction projects –such as military bases and airfields –that much easier & more profitable for Chavez.

Aug 21, 2008 - 12:00 pm 207. bobal:

I’m thinking Pat Robertson may have been on to something re Chavez.

Aug 21, 2008 - 12:03 pm 208. Lifeofthemind:

The Democratic criticism of our nation building in Iraq deserves a test case, Venezuala. We go in and take two hours tops, leave a stain on the carpet and get out. If the unhappy masses install another threat we repeat as necessary otherwise we talk sweet and offer to help.

Aug 21, 2008 - 12:09 pm 209. 2x4:

Bobal, even a broken clock is correct twice a day.

Aug 21, 2008 - 12:10 pm 210. Joe Buzz:

Heard earlier this morning or yesterday that Assad went north to meet with Russian leaders. Will be interesting to learn what will that will produce.

Aug 21, 2008 - 12:10 pm 211. 2x4:

Joe Buzz, 100% unadulterated ill will.

Aug 21, 2008 - 12:12 pm 212. Lifeofthemind:

The Russians are going to homeport their carrier in Tartus.
/Every ship is a submarine, once.

Aug 21, 2008 - 12:13 pm 213. jdwill:

@bobal we need a space elevator

Howza bout:

- orbiting solar power collection stations (various schemas available for electricity generation here)
- space elevator using carbon nanotubes to a geo-syncronous collection port
- microwave energy in space from stations to port and thence to earth surface via carbon conductor ribbons

Solar generated electricity without all the problems of a fixed surface collection point and power from space without such huge losses in getting up and down.

Aug 21, 2008 - 12:17 pm 214. buddy larsen:

Stanley Kubrick is a favorite prophet/film director –but i do NOT appreciate his making trivial of gaps. Resulting gaps in the gap conversation lead to gaps.

Aug 21, 2008 - 12:20 pm 215. fedya:

@Starko:
Wretchard, as Konyok already pointed out, the BBC article you linked to was apparently from 2004 (easy overlooked)

However, if it was a public US diplomatic position, and it has not been publically countermanded, it therefore may still be current policy. We don’t have to blather about it, right? (i.e. “speak softly; carry a Big Stick”)

Perhaps President Bush simply reminded V. “Pottie” Putin of the policy’s continued existence during their little Olympic dating game in Beijing, thereby inducing V. Pottie’s widely reported “ashen face”.

US commitment on-site = quagmire.

You may guess as to which party will be stuck in said “quagmire” (hint: it ain’t US, baby!)… jus’ bein’ hopeful, that’s all…

Aug 21, 2008 - 12:32 pm 216. buddy larsen:

”…we need a space elevator” –to escape our earth escalator

Aug 21, 2008 - 12:33 pm 217. buddy larsen:

jdwill, Japan is said to be heavily funding advanced research on an orbiting solar collecter.

Aug 21, 2008 - 12:39 pm 218. Konyok:

V. Pottie Putin.
Does have kind of a ring about it, don’t it?
I wonder how we can politely explain that one to our occasional guests?

Meanwhile, here’s a couple of cheery pix:

http://www.luoamerican.com/baldilocks/2008/08/to-russia-with.html

And something that fits in with some discussion on an earlier thread, attention: Alexis

http://www.nydailynews.com/opinions/2008/08/19/2008-08-19_after_barack_obama_hype_a_backlash.html

Aug 21, 2008 - 12:45 pm 219. jdwill:

Right, no easy oil for Japan, they may well lead the way.

Aug 21, 2008 - 12:46 pm 220. Annoy Mouse:

“we need a space elevator”

Why not build a ceiling above the earth and populate it like minded democracies. The old earth can be relegated to Morlocks and Russians.

That shouldn’t cost too much. Think we can work out a 5 year plan or will we have to amortize it in the first quarter?

Aug 21, 2008 - 12:48 pm 221. 2x4:

Tethered space elevator may have fundamental issues with electric potential difference. IOW, it is quite likely that it would be a rather long lightning rod with a propensity of being severed and any elevator cargo fried to crisp, let alone pulled back by gravity in a free fall, once the tether backbone is gone.

Aug 21, 2008 - 12:50 pm 222. cjm:

we can thank bush for insisting that chavez be re-instated after the coup.

Aug 21, 2008 - 12:53 pm 223. Paul:

Now, with Russians installing checkpoints throughout occupied Georgia, it is abundantly clear that diplomacy and the cease fire have failed completely. Russia is showing signs that they want to push us around all over the place.

We must act immediately or the situation could spin out of control. Bush needs to break from the past appeasement of Russia and announce a policy change forthwith. He needs to be clear that Russian aggression has serious consequences for the US and the world. The impression left so far is way too weak. He needs to grab the attention of the American people and convince them this is a grave situation. Too often we hear on TV and radio from people inside and outside this Administration, that a military response is out of the question. It had better not be.

Not only do we need immediate economic sanctions, we need military options.

I would opt to take the most secure appropriate place in Georgia and make it an American military base. Bring in the Patriot missile batteries. Enforce a no fly zone over Georgian territory. Arm the Georgians to the teeth. Close Roki to resupply. And then let the Georgians pick apart the remaining Russians. A sharp kick in the teeth is the only Diplomacy Putin understands.

The appeaser Robert Gates needs to be shut up. His comments so far have seriously undermined our position. The Messiah’s advisor Brezinski says that an Obama Administration will renegotiate the Poland missile defense deal.
Obama and his people need to be called out for the feckless traitors they are.
The American people must be told in no uncertain terms what havoc and destruction an Obama administration will bring.

Aug 21, 2008 - 12:54 pm 224. supercargo:

There has been general media censorship – except for Youtube – of the Saakashvili-Barrage that started the crisis.

Again, at 9PM of Aug. 7 the Georgian President stated on live TV an offer of “autonomy” to South Ossetia. At the same time he was ordering his Generals to implement “Operation Cleared Fields,” to finalize the ethnic cleansing of South Ossetia. Shortly after midnight, an 8 hour artillery barrage was rained on Tskhinvali, with the intent of effecting ethnic cleansing. As refugees began to pour out of the city, Georgian tanks entered and commenced indiscriminate shooting of civilians. Lightly armed “Peacekeeper” troops were also attacked.

You know the rest, except for the fact that Russian troops attacked the Gori Barracks, and captured plans for “Cleared Fields.” We should hold them to their promise to vacate Georgia proper, but we don’t need to lie for the private benefit of a Soros’ protege.

It is pure hypocrisy to attack Soros’ intrigues and rhetoric (comparing Bush to Hitler and condemning the GWOT), while defending his Georgian player piano. Don’t even think that you are speaking for Georgians when you do that. Saakashvili squandered a 30% lead over the national opposition with his Soros constitution. He won a fixed election with only 52.8% of the vote. If he has 15% support, it would be a miracle.

Maybe the Russians should set up their own Radio Free Europe2, if the lying continues.

Aug 21, 2008 - 12:59 pm 225. cjm:

has anyone ever seen condi and obama in the same place at the same time? hmmmm

Aug 21, 2008 - 1:00 pm 226. jdwill:

That’s what the carbon nanotube tech is about, a cable/ribbon that could be strong enough. The stress of a line from the surface to a tethered orbital object would be tremendous. But that’s what a space elevator is all about.
We may not be that far away from this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_elevator

Not sure why a vertical electrical transmission line would have significantly different problems that current horizontal ones.

Aug 21, 2008 - 1:00 pm 227. fedya:

@RAH:
Interesting news That a US missile destroyer and Coast Guard cutter is in transit to the Black Sea. Apparently Turkey has approved.

[Ahem: mi-mi-mi-mi... ]
“I got a fleet in yonder Black Sea,
…Ain’t THAT good news!?”

@Brock:
An EU military would so out-class anything
Shirley, sir, you jest…

@2×4:
So, where? Batumi? Poti…
Poti-extreme provocation
Batumi-for Georgian sovereignty/mild provocation
Hopa, Turkey-defensible overland communications to central Lesser Caucasus (highway D010 to Artvin)

@kinyok:
If there is time, before Russia begins moving against Ukraine, it is mandatory that Ukraine receive a massive economic stimulus

Stabilizing free trade and safe passage in the Black Sea might be all Ukraine needs to become very prosperous, no?

Aug 21, 2008 - 1:10 pm 228. sarkis:

give me a flippin break, supercargo. Even in the old days the Soviet propaganda was claiming that the media is censored in the west. How would that censorship be happening and how come only youtube is not under it?
Artillery barrage rained for 8 hours and fewer than 150 people are dead? And no shots were fired from the Ossetian side before that, by the Ossetian freedom fighters, unaffiliated with the Russian agencies, I am sure? And 1000 tanks just hanging out near the tunnel at the time? Captured plans, my foot.
To investigate genocide war crimes better look at Russia and Kadyrov in Chechnya.

Aug 21, 2008 - 1:14 pm 229. S:

Paul – couldn’t agree more. Gates fully embodies the risk averse diplomacy first ethos of the CIA. He is dove in the worst kind of way.

Aug 21, 2008 - 1:17 pm 230. buddy larsen:

Supercargo, i did note that Soros insider Richard Holbrooke was all over the tv airwaves in Tblisi a few days ago using uncharacteristically emotional language against Russia. Holbrooke, Brezinski, Albright –all Democratic foreign policy heavies –all Soros allies –all possible officials in an Obama admin –are oddly out of place here –something is hidden.

Aug 21, 2008 - 1:23 pm 231. 2x4:

jdwill,Not sure why a vertical electrical transmission line would have significantly different problems that current horizontal ones.

Heh, apples and oranges. I were not talking about electrical transmission lines, at all.
If someone wants to burn money on it, be my guest. It will just confirm that I am right.

Aug 21, 2008 - 1:24 pm 232. buddy larsen:

2×4, Intel has just successfully air-transmitted 60 watts about five feet, at 75% retention.

Aug 21, 2008 - 1:31 pm 233. supercargo:

Wretchard:

Apply your logic to this series of maps:
http://www.djavakhk.com/index.php?page=1&r=0&l=en

Again, Georgia is not a nation; it is a Stalinist concept of a post-nationalist administrative zone. All ethnic areas had “semi-autonomous” status.

In 1982 the Novosti Press Agency (disinformation wing of the KGB) put out an Orwellian booklet, “Political Terms: a Short Guide.” Within same we find this gem:

“Nation, a historically formed community of people arising in the period of overcoming feudal disunity and developing capitalist relations. Characteristic of a Nation is community of territory, economic life, language and certain traits of culture and psychology. Such a community does not, however, put an end to the class contradictions and class struggle withing the nation. The victory of a socialist revolution is followed by the disappearance of antagonisms within the nation, the growth of friendship among the peoples, the continual economic and cultural drawing together of the socialist nations, their mutual enrichment, and the establishment of traditions shared by all the builders of communism.”

Again, Georgia is a dog’s breakfast of former Autonomous and Semi-Autonomous regions of the USSR, administered as if any notion of national antagonisms does not exist. As you can see from the map series, minority enclaves bounded by administrative borders, remnant of Stalin’s Soviet legalism, are being subject to serial ethnic cleansing. The US and NATO are indulging all of same. Why? They want a collective security arrangement in the Caucasus. As long as they can invoke the territorial integrality on a client state, the rest of the oppressed minorities can go to hell. NATO’s founding principles are supposed to be based on “democracy, individual liberty and the rule of law.” Bush is pressuring use of the collective security alliance, as an instrument of ethnic cleansing.

Georgia’s leader is a protege of Gamsakhurdia, a fascist who was elected on a slogan, “Georgia for the Georgians.” When he started implementing same, civil war erupted. Saakashvili entered politics as Justice Minister in the post-Gamsakhurdia regime of Shevardnadze (last Foreign Minister of the USSR). He quit when Hungarian billionaire George Soros, used his Open Society Institute of Georgia, as pseudo payback for the Soviet invasion of Hungary in 1956. After the Rose Revolution of 2004, Bush encouraged the Georgians to join his sham “Coalition of the Willing” in Iraq. As payback, Bush both sent massive aid to Georgia, along with military advisors. Israel – admittedly short of allies because of perverse Muslim diplomacy – joined in the implementation of the Soros plan (Georgia’s Defense Minister holds joint Israel-Georgian citizenship). A huge movement (“Anti-Soros”) followed said implementation and support for Saakashvili dropped to the point that he jailed opposition last November, after using violence to halt protest.

“Big Picture” impugned motives are being posed to whitewash the Saakashvili-Cleansing; CNN are FOX chose to cover up the effects of indiscriminate shelling and murder in civilian areas. Further, anyone who posts messages like this in the political blogs is smeared with Russian agent BS.

It would be appropriate to ask Bush-doormats to declare a moral position on the Saakashvili-Cleansing. Let’s see who is trapped in a rhetoric-prison. It is yet proven that the genocide was effected under the name of “Cleaned Fields” if same is corroborated, how should be treat the knee jerks who swallowed brazen lies.

Aug 21, 2008 - 1:37 pm 234. 2x4:

buddy, a somewhat different animal, too, in orders of magnitude. Don’t have time now, but will try to dig up something to elucidate at some later point.

Aug 21, 2008 - 1:46 pm 235. Doug:

Buddy,
Let us know when they can light up Algore’s Carbon Credits like an old-fashioned lightbulb.

Aug 21, 2008 - 2:06 pm 236. trangbang68:

Supercargo, is that like 10 lbs. of crap in a 5 lb. bag? We don’t want to hear the Soviet propaganda line.Who is Putin a protege of?

Aug 21, 2008 - 2:08 pm 237. 2x4:

Supercargo, I won’t address your blatherings about what constitutes a nation.

But, from the link you supplied:

I want to say that I am 100% Georgian. But for those who hate Armenians I’ll be Armenian. For those who dislike Azeris I’ll
be Azeri. For anti-Semites I’ll be Jew,” Saakashvili stated. “Just recently I was told that someone began to state that as if I am Ossetin by descent. And though I am Georgian, I do not object being Ossetin,” Georgian President added.

More than odd, in light of your assertions.

Aug 21, 2008 - 2:10 pm 238. Teresita:

cjm:has anyone ever seen condi and obama in the same place at the same time?

No, but the word on the street is they have the same taste in women.

Aug 21, 2008 - 2:24 pm 239. Konyok:

fedya,

What Ukraine lacks most is honest to goodness economic reform: a truly free market, radical surgery of the bureaucracy, top to bottom reform of the tax system and a functioning central bank. You would not believe how difficult it is to do business there.

Juliya Tymoshenko is the Barack Obama of Ukraine. She looks great in those braids, but during her two times as PM the entire agenda has been dividing the spoils in the second round of privatization of unproductive state enterprises. Yushchenko seems like a good egg, he’s certainly a brave man, but his hands are tied by the Rada.

Personally, I would bombard the country with a gazillion microloans.

Aug 21, 2008 - 2:25 pm 240. Doug:

– Blame all but Russia;
– American Infighting –
The more Russia promises to leave Georgia, the more it seems to stay put. One reason may be that Putin keeps counting on us to be either confused, contradictory or angrier at ourselves than at Russia over his latest aggression. And given our inability to speak with one voice, he seems to be absolutely right.
– VDH

Aug 21, 2008 - 2:28 pm 241. buddy larsen:

Supercargo, so this alternate view is all propaganda? (snip, bolding mine)

“Russia is a relatively young nation, dating from after the turn of the previous millennium. Drive the highway from Gori to Tbilisi and you’ll find signs of Christianity that predate Russia by some five centuries. Georgians will tell you, with a mixture of pride and scorn, that their culture and history goes back a lot deeper than Russia’s.

Starting out as an isolated village, Muscovy grew by conquest, swallowing up lands and people at a dizzying rate, especially from the 18th century on. Though Russian nationalists claim otherwise, as a nation the Russians are a mix of Slavic, Asian and other European ethnicities. This national hodgepodge was wrenched together by an authoritarian czar who claimed his right to rule from the heavens.

The Soviets were even better empire builders. Vladimir Putin, whose formative years were spent in Dresden spying on the East German colonials, comes from this tradition.

Never in the history of empire was the periphery generally so much more advanced than the center. With each move into Europe, from the partitions of Poland to Stalin’s great triumph at Yalta, Russia acquired what it didn’t have — an industrialized economic base, better infrastructure and above all contact with Western civilization. Aside from St. Petersburg and a few other towns, Russia itself stayed a largely rural, Eastern Orthodox backwater. It knew it too.

In the Soviet days, Russian culture, language and history were pressed on its captive nations. But these nations in and outside the U.S.S.R. never gave up their dreams of freedom. Starting in the Baltics, and then spreading to the Caucasus and Ukraine, their resurgence was, as much if not more than Mikhail Gorbachev, the internal force that brought about the Soviet Union’s collapse. They easily imagined life without Mother Russia. Russia could not reciprocate. To dominate is to be.

(end quote)

Your focus on the little ignores the large. This is a tactic –how to use an open system against itself (see installation of ‘legal’ puppet governments, history of, record of USSR, record of USA).

Aug 21, 2008 - 2:47 pm 242. Lifeofthemind:

The Russians are trying to get Azeri oil shipped through Iran and Kazakh oil shipped through Russia to kill the BTC pipeline. A demonstartion that the pipeline through Russia is no more secure is needed to bring clarity to this situation. Russia cannot secure the energy infrastructure except at ruinous cost.

Aug 21, 2008 - 3:05 pm 243. 3Case:

“Clearly we want to reduce Russia’s ability to utilize missiles. Clearly a significant portion of our national strategy has been to align forces right up against Russia’s border. Clearly we want to contain Russia and not see it re-assert itself. To deny this would seem to require a stunning refusal to follow the news or read the strategic literature.”

You have great faith and confidence in the benevolence of Putin’s Russia for what reason?

Aug 21, 2008 - 3:06 pm 244. buddy larsen:

PS, Supercargo, you should’ve, having broached it, added that the oppo leader who got jailed was also released a few days later, after the potential violence abated.

Also, re use of word “sham” to describe “coalition of the willing”: please describe Warsaw Pact.

Aug 21, 2008 - 3:08 pm 245. Joseph Somsel:

I’d say we’ve lost the first round. We had hoped that Russia would be a partner in making a better world. I’m reading the sequel to “Pentagon’s New Map” and that’s the way the story was supposed to run. Guess Putin didn’t read that book. This invasion was a real game-changer.

We may need to retreat a step (or steppe) or two and fall back to a defensible line. A long run goal must be “Sticking it to Gazprom”. Look for an article in AmericanThinker.com shortly.

The really nasty thing we could do TODAY is announce the US-subsidized sale of a CANDU reactor to Poland. Does Russia REALLY want to play the proxy proliferation game?

Aug 21, 2008 - 3:10 pm 246. Doug:

– Afternoon with the Azerbaijani at Haditha Dam –

– between Russia & Iran, Azerbaijan Ally Deserves Our Attention –

Aug 21, 2008 - 3:12 pm 247. CPT. Charles:

Ahhh…people. Sorry to interrupt the regulars ‘discourse’ with the visiting moonbats, but somebody MAY want to take a peak at this [besides me...]. It’s slightly off the current thread but it does relate to current knot of problems.

http://www.aei.org/publications/filter.all,pubID.28494/pub_detail.asp

You can either view the page, or click the PDF link.

This is ‘new’ news to me…and worrisome at the least. If your really impatient, go read the conclusion.

Aug 21, 2008 - 3:19 pm 248. 3Case:

From Wikipedia:

“Putin graduated from the International Law branch of the Law Department of the Leningrad State University in 1975. His final thesis was on an international law theme: Russian: «Принцип наиболее благоприятствуемой нации»[13] (“The principle of most favored nation”).

Thereafter he was recruited to the KGB. At the University he also became a member of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union, and remained a member until the party was dissolved in December 1991.[14][15]

He worked in the Leningrad and Leningrad region Fifth Directorate of the KGB, which combated the political dissent in the Soviet Union. In 1976 he completed the KGB retraining course in Okhta, Leningrad. The available information about his first years at the KGB is somewhat contradictory; according to some sources,[16] he completed the other retraining course at the Dzerzhinsky KGB Higher School in Moscow and then in 1985—the Red Banner Yuri Andropov KGB Institute in Moscow (now the Academy of Foreign Intelligence), whereupon (or earlier) he joined the KGB First Chief Directorate (Foreign intelligence branch).

From 1985 to 1990 the KGB stationed Putin in Dresden, East Germany,[17] in what he regards as a minor position. Following the collapse of the East German regime, Putin was recalled to the Soviet Union and returned to Leningrad, where in June 1991 he assumed a position with the International Affairs section of Leningrad State University, reporting to Vice-Rector Yuriy Molchanov. In his new position, Putin grew reacquainted with Anatoly Sobchak, then mayor of Leningrad. Sobchak served as an Assistant Professor during Putin’s university years and was one of Putin’s lecturers. Putin formally resigned from the state security services on August 20, 1991, during the KGB-supported abortive putsch against Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev.”

I could have sworn that there was a Putin-Andropov connection, but am not able to find it on the fly.

Aug 21, 2008 - 3:22 pm 249. Doug:

– Afternoon with the Azerbaijani at Haditha Dam –
The close ties between the Marines and the Azerbaijanis are visible, and the respect is mutual. “We have a very strong, a good relationship with the Marines. It is a nice feeling to see how Marines operate and how they serve”, says Major Eyubov.

I had the pleasure to sit down with Major Eyubov, Captain Javadov Rimini, the company’s Executive Officer, and Captain Gararev. We drank tea, had a conversation about our homes, and families, and Captain Gararev showed me photographs of the beautiful countryside outside of his home city of Baku. We took photographs and exchanged handshakes, and Major Eyubov kindly gave me a gift of Azerbaijani champaign, which will be a fine treat for New Years Eve celebrations.

War is an ugly business, but it is also a place where men and nations forge bonds where they may not have done so.
—
– between Russia & Iran, Azerbaijan Ally Deserves Our Attention –

Aug 21, 2008 - 3:38 pm 250. cjm:

t: i’ll set them up, you knock them down

Aug 21, 2008 - 3:38 pm 251. supercargo:

We have a consensus: the Holocaust happened and the Saakashvili-Cleansing didn’t. And ad hominen is legitimate response to sound argument. Why? Americans backed a jackass who squandered the lives of 4000 of the country’s top troops in Iraq, with the result: the Maliki government is refusing to allow Sunni integration in the Iraq military. And the Status of Forces Agreement (read: surrender) will hand Iraq to Iranian puppets in Iraq. How could this happen? After the largest transfer of American wealth to a foreign government and the father of the current US president employed as a fiduciary of said government, Americans refuse to question Bush’s post 9-11 exhoneration (“islam is peace”) of the Islamofascist enemy at the Islamic Center (Sept 16, 2001). After over $2 trillion in losses and a recession based on Bush fiscal insanity and monetary waste on suicidal nation-building, America’s are buying that goof’s take on Georgia. If he has the lowest level of support in US history, and has squandered both American wealth and security while indulging the Central Asian Heroin Industry, then wouldn’t it make sense to question his rhetoric?

Euro polls reveal negligible support for the ABM idiocy. In fact, the result of same will be: defeat of each and every pro-US government in Europe, and the dismantling of the system. Why? The US signed an ABM agreement with the USSR. It allowed construction of ABM systems around Washington and Moscow. Until the Oil Patch Slave, no US president possessed the requisite stupidity to develop capitol defense. Why? Because development of an ABM system leads to an arms race, in that same can be destroyed by use of multi-head missiles. Further, they lower the First Strike threshold, and Stealth Technology undermines same. In short: they are junk and they increase insecurity. Bush has butchered START, or strategic arms reduction arrangements. He has signalled a free for all. Europeans – who lack the fanaticism that it takes to refuse to watch Saakashvili-Cleansing videos – will react to American stupidity.

Why do we see this American quest for ersatz-victory, in face of years of failure? I attribute same to the mutt class that rose with the internet. Belmont Club doesn’t link to the plethora of websites operated by retired NSA and DI mail clerks. With the collapse of Reagan-Republicanism, Mutt-Republicanism arose out of the insipid mindset of Rush Limbaugh, George Bush, Sean Hannity, Bill O’Reilly and the rest of the simpletons who pollute American political culture.

Again, Saakashvili apologists (read: self-loathing liars) deny that that Georgian supremacist refuses to grant semi-autonomy to any of that Stalin-box’s 5 ethnic minorities. So you want NATO in the Caucasus? First Georgia, then Armenia, and any other gutter entity that joined Bush’s “Coalition of the Willing”? Unfortunately, you would have to deny self-determination of Armenians in Georgia. And Armenia claims a quarter of Turkey, another NATO member.

Check out these maps and draw borders significant to signatures placed on the UN Charter, North Atlantic Treaty, Final Act, CSCE (“Helsinki Accords”), etc. This an age when stupidity prospers. Ignorance is bliss. Complex solutions are anathema. Political mongrels reach high office.
http://www.djavakhk.com/cartes.php?l=en

Who do I blame for allowing sensitive American and Israeli technology to get into the hands of the Russians? McCain? He has claimed that he speaks to the genocidal fuhrer of Georgia, “several times a day.” Temporary political stains come out in the reality wash. Fight the delusions.

Aug 21, 2008 - 4:00 pm 252. 2x4:

An ignore function would be nice. OK, a manual tripe skip is good too. And, don’t feed them.

Aug 21, 2008 - 4:14 pm 253. Eggplant:

CPT. Charles:

“somebody MAY want to take a peak at this [besides me…]. It’s slightly off the current thread but it does relate to current knot of problems.”

I guess the concern here is that Ahmadinejad will do something suicidally stupid because he really believes in the 12th Iman.

It’s hard to interpret this. Ahmadinejad might be talking about the 12th Iman to give himself better “street cred” with Iran’s unwash masses versus the ruling mullahs. Likewise the mullahs are talking down the 12th Iman story because they see Ahmadinejad trying to horn-in on their political turf. It’s important to see that the real political power are the unwashed Iranian masses (deeply religious rural peasants). Those are the people making up the mobs of 200,000 fanatics shouting “allah akbar” or “Death to America” whenever a mullah snaps his fingers. Key point here, is the educated people living in Tehran are NOT politically relavant (neither the mullahs or Ahmadinejad give two hoots about what Tehran’s educated people think).

So is Ahmadinejad serious about the 12th Iman? Who can say? Prior to WW-II, people thought Hitler merely used antisemitism as a cynical political device to appeal to Germany’s ignorant masses and wasn’t really serious about genocide. Demagogues can become incredibly dangerous after they start believing they’re the Messiah.

Aug 21, 2008 - 4:15 pm 254. buddy larsen:

lord a mercy. looks like he picked a helluva time to get off amphetamines.

Aug 21, 2008 - 4:21 pm 255. 2x4:

Eggplant, Demagogues can become incredibly dangerous after they start believing they’re the Messiah

And let’s not forget that we have not one but two, to boot! (I don’t think Putin has that status yet, but he’s getting closer)

Aug 21, 2008 - 4:23 pm 256. 2x4:

Buddy, sadly, I don’t think it is treatable.

Aug 21, 2008 - 4:25 pm 257. Dan:

Aug 21, 2008 – 4:00 pm

May I suggest… aw, the heck with it.

I will see your straw man and raise you one ad hominem.

Aug 21, 2008 - 4:31 pm 258. buddy larsen:

2×4, it’s the zombie vision. all the objects and events exist, but are seen from their breaches, as intolerable fractions of the hellishly perfect, through the looking glass, darkly.

Aug 21, 2008 - 4:31 pm 259. 2x4:

Yea, buddy, he’s not alone, unfortunately, the flick has come to life.

Aug 21, 2008 - 4:40 pm 260. buddy larsen:

Very hard to do business with a zombie. All it wants to do is eat your brain. But it will settle for your neighbor’s brain first, if you want to keep trying to do business with it awhile longer.

Aug 21, 2008 - 4:44 pm 261. fedya:

@buddy larsen:
but are seen from their breaches

Larcenous: purest pottery, er, poeticalicity. Anyway, such an gorgeous review of the “but, I” [sp?] view…

Aug 21, 2008 - 4:59 pm 262. OldSalt:

“Bush needs to break from the past appeasement of Russia and announce a policy change forthwith. He needs to be clear that Russian aggression has serious consequences for the US and the world. – Paul”

Here’s an interesting question to ponder: How is the invasion of Georgia in 2008 different than the invasion of Kuwait in 1990?

* Both were considered “friends” if not “allies”
* The US trained both armed forces
* Georgia has been friend enough to put blood on the line along side U.S. troops, where Kuwait, arguably, didn’t put blood on the line to defend themselves (i.e. yes, in Kuwait, one person of Royalty did fight, but not many Sheiks were lost during the invasion).
* Obviously, Saddam Hussein was no Putin, and Iraq was no Russian (even in Russia’s depleted military state).

If Kuwait was important enough for Bush I to declare “This will not stand”, why is Bush II declaring, in effect, “Puttiee… I’m getting just a little bit pissed about some of your goings on…”. What’s the moral difference between the situations, Kuwait versus Georgia?

Aug 21, 2008 - 5:05 pm 263. Dan:

“What’s the moral difference between the situations, Kuwait versus Georgia?”

In my view, very little. Except for that little bit of alleged aggression by Georgia that brought the whole thing cascading down. We can argue about this for days, but in the end, it will be the historians that figure this out.

But this episode is NOT done playing out, I think. Much will depend on the welcome our Navy is given in the Black Sea, and I can only imagine what is going on behind closed doors at present.

I do have to add… sending the Navy in was a ballsy move. I would not screw with those ships, if I were Putin.

Aug 21, 2008 - 5:35 pm 264. buddy larsen:

Really, no moral difference. (“but, I” [sp?] view”) Butt eye view morality as irrelevant where imperfect.

Aug 21, 2008 - 5:49 pm 265. buddy larsen:

There’s a Kuwait analog to Georgian aggression –Kuwait was directionally drilling underneath the Iraq border, said Saddam –stealing his oil. but he got even, burning Kuwait oilfields while he was getting the boot, thereby relieving the planet of about a percent or two of its ready reserves.

Aug 21, 2008 - 5:56 pm 266. bobal:

Speaking of Zombies

h/t:Sam

Aug 21, 2008 - 6:25 pm 267. Doug:

What kind of objects and events should one expect when seen from their breeches?

Aug 21, 2008 - 6:51 pm 268. buddy larsen:

Doug, that’d be the “but, I” view, AKA the butt eye view, which you get by dropping your breeches and making it impossible to move forward without tripping and falling flat on your face. Meanwhile you’re bent over ready for any interested dictator.

Aug 21, 2008 - 7:42 pm 269. buddy larsen:

that’s too funny, bobal

Aug 21, 2008 - 7:48 pm 270. mark_b:

Mike Sylwester:

…

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgian-Ossetian_conflict
Aug 21, 2008 – 8:27 am

Mike Sylwester:
…
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgian-Ossetian_conflict
Aug 12, 2008 – 9:16 pm

—————————-

Wikipedia is useful as a supporting source. It is convenient because they discourage the use of original material. Everything must be referenced from somewhere else. Over time most material gets better.

Sometimes the milk in my refrigerator is older than the edits of cited sections.

Does anyone have an idea on the reliability of the wikipedia entry:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgian-Ossetian_conflict

Teresita, you have wiki experience and do not seem to have an axe to grind here (at least not a single bladed one). Would you care to offer an opinion?

Aug 21, 2008 - 7:55 pm 271. narciso:

Georgia existed long before the Soviet State; read Lermontov’ A Hero for Our Time”
(the opening chapter references Tflis, and
Ossetian coachmen;or see this map of the Caucasus from1884,href The reference to Heinlein’s “Moon is a Harsh Mistress” his cislunar take on the American Revolution, has to include the lunar mass driver, which sends payloads at incredible speeds; which are directed at the
colonial administrators back on Earth.

Aug 21, 2008 - 8:08 pm 272. CPT. Charles:

buddy larsen: my take from the Iran piece is that Ahmadinejad has nearly completed his bypassing of the Council of Guardians and the Senior Imans [the 2nd tier clerics]. I’ve been following the events in Iran for awhile and this much I know for sure:

A] Ahmadinejad has been installing IRGC senior officers in all the key Ministries and industrial concerns [and putting the Imans-in-charge out on the street]; this includes the nuke program. Both the IRGC and the Basij answer to to him (and are generally regarded to be loyal to him alone…), not to the CoG.

B] Among his many nasty projects, he’s been pouring funds into the city Qom, and subsidizing ‘tours’ for the faithful [i.e.-Twelvers]. In addition [via MEMRI] literature and even cartoons declaring the Mahdi’s return are turning up anywhere there are significant populations of Shia.

Where is this leading to? Ahmadinejad is deliberately fostering millenarianism to undercut the authority of the CoG and bring as many Shia under his direct sway. The reasons for this should be obvious. As you might suspect the Sunnis are getting VERY nervous [Example: http://www.memri.org/bin/latestnews.cgi?ID=SD202608 ].

How far down the road of madness are we? Your guess is as good as mine. Only Ahmadinejad knows for sure but I’d bet that the nukes are key to the answer. How much does he buy into this BS? I don’t know and frankly…I don’t care.

If I had my way, the nuke program, Ahmadinejad and his cronies would no longer be an issue. And Qom would be utterly erased from the face of the Earth.

Aug 21, 2008 - 8:18 pm 273. CPT. Charles:

Additional take: I’m very sure the Russians are well aware of what’s transpiring in Iran; even so, they’re still aiding them.

Since Putin is no fool, this lends itself to Ahmadinejad’s Twelver gig being a scam…perhaps. Putin’s not the only thug on the block versed in the art of duplicity.

Aug 21, 2008 - 8:46 pm 274. Doug:

In other Shia News:
Iraq Takes Aim at Leaders of U.S.-Tied Sunni Groups
Iraq’s Shiite-dominated government is driving out many leaders of Sunni citizen patrols, which have been a major pillar in the decline in violence.

Aug 21, 2008 - 9:04 pm 275. elijah:

See a trend…

Lebanon Sunnis freeze Hizbullah deal

Aug 21, 2008 - 9:08 pm 276. supercargo:

Doug:

SOFA (Status of Forces Agreement) is an unacceptable topic. As I write, Maliki is dictating terms to the Bushites as is he excluding Sunnis from the national army. In June, Bush allowed him to provide lavist host facilities for Ahmadinejad. Maliki promised his Iranian master that he would NOT allow Iraqi soil to be used against Iran.

Whether SOFA terminates in 2010 or 2011, nothing can change the fact that in the name of Bush’s perverse concept of “freedom” (inapplicable to Saudis and Armenians) and at the cost of 4,000 US troops, a president with less than 20% popular support, will have created conditions for the delivery of Iraq to Iran.

That’s hardly surprising since Bush ordered the Coalition Provisional Authority to outlaw Baathism as its first order of business. That killed Secularism in Iraq, and ensured that Iraq would be at the mercy of Islamofascists, Shiite or Sunni.

So who’s bragging about the Surge? In the Anbar Experiment – 1 year before the Surge – Sunnis made deals with local American commanders. As I write, religious based terrorists are being paid $300 per month to keep foreign al-Qaeda out of the country, and for protection against Shiites.

In 2003, I wrote on one blog that if the US allows the enemy to turn the Iraq adventure into another Intifada wheelspin, then the US will leave Iraq like the beaten dog, with its tail between its legs.

Aug 21, 2008 - 9:18 pm 277. Doug:

From The Prague Spring to The Tblisi Spring In 40 years
European reader Renshaw sends a note and a link:
“40 yrs on and events repeat themselves …?”
The link is simple yet expository:
A BBC photographic series by Josef Koudelka of the 1968 Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia and the storm that ended the Prague Spring.

Aug 21, 2008 - 9:19 pm 278. bobal:

Council of Guardians, Senior Imams, Twelvers, Revolutionary Guards, God Almighty.

How far down the road to madness are we is right.

Aug 21, 2008 - 9:23 pm 279. Doug:

“That killed Secularism in Iraq, and ensured that Iraq would be at the mercy of Islamofascists, Shiite or Sunni.”
—
The original Garner Plan was paying (integrated Sunni and Shia) Iraqi Army Salaries, as well as widows and orphans.
Bremmer cut those payments off cold – the insurgency was the result.

Aug 21, 2008 - 9:26 pm 280. buddy larsen:

Think we’re boxed in, how would you like to be a young Israeli parent with several kids depending on you?

Aug 21, 2008 - 9:39 pm 281. buddy larsen:

virtually all reports are, Iraqis are happy with their brand new constitutional republic. Economic, cultural, institutional metrics all scaling up. They like the American military, and it likes them. Oil sales up, cooperation up, currency, business starts, stock market, returnees, birth rate, all up. Iraq looks like a long term American ally. That was our objective. So why are we so blue?

Aug 21, 2008 - 9:50 pm 282. Dave:

BUDDY! YOU IDIOT REDNECK! Don’t you know that good news is against the law? You are lucky you haven’t been arrested for neoconning
without a yarmulka!

And besides that, now that key Iraqis have been bought off, it looks like they may do the unspeakable. Stay bought. How dare you corrupt ignoble savages into the ways
of honest behavior. Next thing you know they will get uppity and think they are just as good as Quanah Parker or somebody.

For shame, Larsen, for shame!

Aug 21, 2008 - 10:02 pm 283. M. Simon:

Once these get into normal production then hundreds can be made and that does make the possibility of successful missiles strikes very low. The Russian know this also.

The USA is already installing BMD. So the threat is not to the USA. It is to the satellites. They are losing the ability to threaten their neighbors.

Aug 21, 2008 - 10:36 pm 284. M. Simon:

a president with less than 20% popular support,

First it is now up to 33% and Congress may still be in the single digits.

But let us assume your 20% is right. What if 1/2 of the 80% wants more aggressive action by Bush? That leaves the surrender monkeys with 40% support.

Your error is to believe everyone dislikes Bush for the same reason.

Aug 21, 2008 - 10:43 pm 285. M. Simon:

A] Ahmadinejad has been installing IRGC senior officers in all the key Ministries and industrial concerns [and putting the Imans-in-charge out on the street]; this includes the nuke program. Both the IRGC and the Basij answer to to him (and are generally regarded to be loyal to him alone…), not to the CoG.

No doubt this will do wonders for the Iranian economy which is already in serious trouble.

In other words the looting of the Iranian economy will accelerate.

Aug 21, 2008 - 10:48 pm 286. buddy larsen:

dave –right, i must i must i must correct my thinking!

Somebody a week or ten days ago linked to this youtube, link worked fine, video was about the 1930s soviet-induced famine in Ukraine. Now, it’s been expunged –due to ”third party copyright claim” it says. Hmmm.

Aug 21, 2008 - 10:56 pm 287. M. Simon:

Fight the delusions.

Some people prefer offense. Some defense. Some are just listening to the voices in their head.

cargo: you need to join a different cult.

Aug 21, 2008 - 11:01 pm 288. Eggplant:

Doug linked a New York Times story:

“Iraq Takes Aim at Leaders of U.S.-Tied Sunni Groups”

Here is another version of the story:

http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2008/08/bungled_raid_in_diya.php

Aug 21, 2008 - 11:04 pm 289. M. Simon:

cargocult:

Why deny that that war criminal savaged a civilian population? My copy of the Helsinki Accords, includes a provision that anathemizes war propaganda.

Tell it to the Russians. Reports filtering back from the hospital in S. Ossetia say 40 dead in the initial Georgian strikes. No report if they were Russian military or paramilitary.

You need to keep up my man. There was no genocide or even attempted genocide.

Aug 21, 2008 - 11:05 pm 290. buddy larsen:

Boilerplate shouters are accustomed to audiences which are not expected to believe a word of it, but are indeed expected to sit quietly nodding & pretending to.

Aug 21, 2008 - 11:15 pm 291. Doug:

Comment @ Eggplant’s link:
Rhyno327, no I don’t believe the Sunnis have any intention of fighting us again.
In fact we are their only strong ally in Iraq right now, which is part of the reason why now the religious Shia want a timetable for us to leave.

The Maliki government is trying to dissolve the Sons of Iraq program and include only a handful of their members in the security forces. That could however give al-Qaeda a chance to come back in large parts of Northern Iraq given the power vacuum as the ISF is probably two years away from being able to secure all these areas.

I really believe the current Iraqi government for all its non sectarian talk is very sectarian and will treat the Sunnis not much better then Saddam treated the Shia when we leave.
That is why a free and fair election at the local and national elections over the next year is so very important. These elections the U.S. needs to monitor closely and keep the parties in power from fixing the result.

The Shia tribes want to challange the religious parties for power just lke the Sunni tribes. The next election could usher in a much more non-sectarian government that doesn’t view most Sunnis as ex-Saddamists and the enemy as certain advisors of Maliki seem to.

Aug 22, 2008 - 1:13 am 292. V.B.Bart:

Russian Economy Takes Hits Due to War on Georgia

Looks like Comrade Volodya’s excellent adventure in Georgia is costing the oligarchs back home. Long term, that could become dangerous to his health. Without Western capital investment, Russia will be in trouble. Here is their weak point waiting to be exploited for maximum effect — and without a shot having to be fired.
Here’s an excellent article in The Financial Times, “Investors quit Russia after Georgia war”. I’ve quoted large chunks of the article below since, though registration at FT is free up to a point, it can be tiresome to set up.
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
“Investors pulled their money out of Russia in the wake of the Georgia conflict at the fastest rate since the 1998 rouble crisis, new figures showed on Thursday.

Russian debt and equity markets have also suffered sharp falls since the conflict began on August 8, with yields on domestic rouble bonds increasing by up to 150 basis points in the last month.”
…………….
“Vladimir Potanin, head of Interros, one of Russia’s largest industrial groups, has complained about the shortage of long-term credit to Mr Medvedev, the financial newspaper Vedomisti reported on Thursday.

The tight credit conditions have been exacerbated by foreign capital flight since the war. Data released by Russia’s central bank showed a drop in foreign currency reserves of just over $16.4bn in the week beginning August 8. This was one of the largest absolute weekly drops in 10 years, according to Ivan Tchakarov at Lehman Brothers.

The only larger drop in reserves since 1998 was $16.5bn in June 2006, when Russia paid off the bulk of its Paris club debt.”
…………..
“Gennady Melikyan, the central bank’s deputy chairman, said the sell-off had been triggered by the “political situation”, adding: “Foreigners are pulling out of some assets and stock markets and the exchange rate has suffered most. I think we have come close to the bottom now.”

While the value of the rouble has stayed relatively stable since the start of the conflict, with the help of central bank intervention, the stock market has fallen 6.5 per cent since August 7 and companies have found it harder to raise capital as investors demand sharply higher yields to buy their bonds to reflect the perceived risk.

The moves show that Russia’s economy, in spite of having one of the strongest national balance sheets in the world, is not immune to global market sentiment, which could end up being an important check on Kremlin decision-making.”
………………..
“Alexei Kudrin, finance minister, said the capital flight had largely subsided and would be more than made up for by projected inflows. Russia’s foreign currency reserves, at $581bn, are the world’s third largest. “There is nothing that has happened that could cause us to change any of our plans,” he said.

But the ebbing of foreign investor confidence will make it harder for Russian companies to raise debt and equity finance since foreign sources account for a disproportionate share of long-term capital for Russian corporate borrowers.

“The market is vulnerable to foreign capital flight,” said Kingsmill Bond at Troika Dialogue, the investment bank. “The major Achilles heel of the Russian market is that there is very little domestic long-term capital.””
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
Welcome to the global economy Vlad! Isn’t capitalism grand!

Aug 22, 2008 - 5:13 am 293. supercargo:

Did a McCain assistant incite Saakashvili’s “Clear Fields” operation? I am open to more information, and not blustery apologisms. Let this impact on the resistant brain cells:

http://www.truthout.org/article/georgia-war-a-neocon-election-ploy%20

Aug 22, 2008 - 6:03 am 294. buddy larsen:

@supercargo: “I am open to more information, and not blustery apologisms.”

Super, have you ever heard the expression “The pot calling the kettle black”? You respond almost zero to information, and bluster apologies almost 100%. Finally, sir, have you no shame?

First of all, do you have untainted links to “Clear Fields”
Second, if is not a total disinformation, and actually exists, then what is it? If it is a plan to stop the SO guerrilla warfare that the world now understands had been ramping ever upward for months, especially since the April shootdown of a Georgian drone by an RF MiG 29 and accelerating in the months since then, and then going parabolic in the first week of August, then WHY would any defending government NOT have a plan to ‘clear’ the ‘fields’ of attackers?

Are you attempting, by dark insinuation and selective emphasis, to flip the morality of this situation? I would bet 10:1 the answer to that question is ‘yes’.

I am open to more information, and not blustery apologisms.

Aug 22, 2008 - 8:00 am 295. buddy larsen:

What was the problem with the drone? Remember, peacekeepers do not do make military preparations within the host country that need such secrecy that the host’s eyes need to be blinded.

Aug 22, 2008 - 8:09 am 296. buddy larsen:

Your link’s charge, “Georgia War a Neocon Election Ploy” is a little bizarre, isn’t it, given that it means that RF is cooperating with neocons to throw them the US election?

Aug 22, 2008 - 8:14 am 297. M. Simon:

A bit of news from Iran today. They need to buy 1/3 of their wheat consumption from the USA – 5 million tons – since there are currently no alternate suppliers. Also check that they have reigned in Hizballah.

Hunger Stalks Iran

Aug 22, 2008 - 2:31 pm 298. buddy larsen:

Feed the hungry –”virtue is its own reward” and “the quality of mercy is not strained”. Odd stray thought, re the Ukraine holocaust of early 1930s (see link just above) –that too was a wheat deficit –tho deliberate.

Aug 22, 2008 - 3:43 pm

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