208 Comments

1. Dave:

Yep, Keenan had it right. At its borders, Russia can have only vassals or enemies.
Does not speak highly of their culture, now does it?

And by the way, enemies have a higher survival rate than do vassals.

When Russia has nothing but enemies that it cannot turn into vassals, Russia will be able to join the ranks of self-respecting nations.

So, we keep Putin from being able to do it to any more of his neighbors. Then the Georgian insurgency kicks some behind, then the internal vassals start behaving properly
and the impossible happens.

Our problem? Not them. Our own bozos who think spreading American culture is a no-no.

Aug 21, 2008 - 10:23 pm 2. NahnCee:

I wondered when I read that remark reported by Totten whether it meant that the Russians fully anticipated they would be meeting up sooner or later with real Americans carrying real guns and shooting real bullets back at them.

Considering at that point they had had a pretty free rein with just retreating Georgian soldiers and unarmed farmers trying to protect their cows and vodka, it seems like a real leap to me for a Russian to ask if someone is going to the “American side” … when I think America wasn’t even involved yet, even in the newspapers.

And if that was the Russian assumption, doesn’t that mean they’re feeling guilty about what they’re doing, and fully anticipate that Big Daddy is just about to come stomping in to paddle their misbehaving little butts?

Aug 21, 2008 - 10:30 pm 3. fedya:

@NahnCee:
doesn’t that mean they’re feeling guilty

Maybe not at all. This article at Das Noo Republikkk has perceptive analysis that Les Russes are way off balance out of fear, just as many commenters on this blog have been saying:

The New Republic
The Death of 1989 by Paul Berman

Germany, having been defeated in World War I, was afterwards said to be undergoing “humiliation”; and yet, after World War II, having been defeated ten times more cruelly, Germany was no longer said to be “humiliated.” That was because the German political doctrines promoting a feeling of “humiliation” disappeared after World War II. It was the doctrines, not the experience of misfortune, that had created “humiliation.”

Russia, having been defeated in the Cold War, is said to be undergoing “humiliation.” But I think mostly the Russian leaders feel something worse, which is fear. The Russian leaders picture their country in a terrifyingly vulnerable position, not unlike how Israel sees itself. Fear, not “humiliation,” led Russia to invade Georgia–a fear of utter destruction facing their own country.

The Russian fear rests merely on a somewhat paranoid interpretation of world events. Fears based on paranoid interpretations cannot be assuaged. A tacit agreement by the rest of the world to allow Russia to conquer the breakaway regions of Georgia and to install a puppet regime in Tbilisi, and to do likewise in Ukraine, and so forth, will not make the Russian leaders feel any less threatened.

http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=9bc4033e-c412-426c-9907-78d4e5d72abf

Berman drifts off into knee-jerk stuff, a nod to auto-BDS followed by a vague prescription for a “lurch… leftward” [innovative!] and “a policy of “green democracy”" [uh, right?]

Gotta hand to Putie Poo, he’s even got TNR running scared!

Aug 21, 2008 - 10:48 pm 4. fedya:

The three paragraphs quoted from TNR [above] should have been separated by super-ellipses, or whatever you call them [....], sorry.

And sorry for all my other typos, too.

Aug 21, 2008 - 10:51 pm 5. Eversor:

More unintended consequences…

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/08/22/15297/investors-quit-russia-after-war/

Aug 21, 2008 - 11:24 pm 6. fedya:

And I suppose I really ought to make my point explicity. If a faulty ideology caused Russians to invade their neighbors because of “fear”, then removing the political apparatus that constructs the ideology is the only viable solution to the problem.

This seems inordinately difficult, but it worked in Germany quite well, contrary to most expectations. In Russia it would require at the very least a removal of the secret services’ and siloviki control of the state as well as a grand bargain.

How about combined East-Euro, Black Sea and Mid-Caspian Treaty Orgs? Add USA and China agreement. Adjust and draw “eternal” borders for Russia and swear to protect them?

Would Ukraine trade away Senfiropl and the Krim, putting a new border at the Dnieper up to Zaporizhzhye to somewhere like Slavyansk and thence to Valuyki in olde Rossia… for Peace?

Or is “regime change” in Russia her only hope for survival?

Aug 21, 2008 - 11:25 pm 7. buddy larsen:

…and buy out the displaced Russians all over the former empire –100k per passport –set a deadline, and everyone after that who hasn’t taken the deal is then a certain citizen of the land they occupy. Takers sell their real estate normally, immigrate to russia, which gets the new blood it wants. Let Russian majorities have their territory, offering the same deal to anyone who wants to move out of Russia. Settle with cash instead of of cash + blood. Ukraine ends up smaller but free thank God a mighty free at last.

Aug 21, 2008 - 11:53 pm 8. buddy larsen:

…in fact that would be a good thing to propose, whether it would work or not. Let Russia nix it –get ‘em on record as interested in regime changes rather than their ethnics and consensual border adjustments.

Aug 21, 2008 - 11:58 pm 9. nichevo:

as I read it uke opinion is split along an east-west faultline. some schism could work maybe… but I would like to see a map of the proposal, not sure I quite get the tradeoffs.

I do like the idea of russians going back to russia. otoh think of all those who clawed their way out. warpac and cis.

tough business.

berman starts strong, there…

…forgive treo typing…

Aug 22, 2008 - 1:25 am 10. Doug:

From The Prague Spring to The Tblisi Spring In 40 years
European reader Renshaw sends a note and a link:
“40 yrs on and events repeat themselves …?”
The link is simple yet expository:
A BBC photographic series by Josef Koudelka of the 1968 Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia and the storm that ended the Prague Spring.
BBC News In pictures Prague Invasion, 1968 – Josef Koudelka,

Aug 22, 2008 - 1:33 am 11. supercargo:

I am not going to say much here, except that Michael Totten is a serial and pathological liar. He went to the Balkans to spew deceit; now he is doing the same thing in the Caucasus. Where next? Send him the Armenian – or other 4 ethnic minority sections of Georgia – to see if the people there believe that Saakashvili is another Dubcek.

Why are there Russians in Majority-Georgia? Because the barracks from where “Operation Clean Fields” was launched are in there. As were the artillery batteries from which civilians were subject to an eight hour barrage. Saakashvili ethnic cleansers abandoned tanks in South Ossetia, because they didn’t want it known that they went in to carry out the last phase of ethnic cleansing. And they were stopped.

What do Totten vomit eaters expect? The Russian allow the artillery to sit in place? They give sensitive American and Israeli weapons systems back to the donors? They don’t touch the Gori barracks from where the slaughter was planned?

The majority here do NOT have opinions on the Georgian crisis; they have an elite sourced repertoire of deferential phrases, citeable in stereotypical situations, and bearing correspondence to reality. Bush covers up the Saakashvili ethnic cleansing, therefore the Russians acted without cause. His popularity has been reduced below 20% after Americans are being forced to subsidize bankrupt mortgage companies who followed Bush’s fiscal recklessness, but he suddenly acquired a capacity for moral leadership. The President should be picked at random out of a phone book.

Again, tell us how defending the territorial integrity of the worst ethnic cleansers in the Caucasus, could solve self determination issues?
http://www.djavakhk.com/cartes.php?l=en

Want to see a Domino Effect? Watch one ABM supporting government after another fall in Europe. Totten isn’t the blind leading the blind; he is the stupid leading the stupid.

Aug 22, 2008 - 2:37 am 12. DanM:

They’re back…..

Aug 22, 2008 - 2:50 am 13. Peter Boston:

“worst ethnic cleansers in the Caucasus”

THe Armenians might have something to say about that. Not that you would be too concerned about facts.

Aug 22, 2008 - 2:53 am 14. Jonathan:

I’ve never seen Totten lie, and he told (and continues to tell) the truth about Iraq that the MSM has no appetite for.

Fighting against rebels who militarily oppose the democratically elected government is not “ethnic cleansing.” Why are there Russians in Majority-Georgia? Because although it’s dangerous to generalize about individuals, a majority of Russians enthusiastically support an amoral leader nostalgic for Soviet power and willing to take concrete steps to restore it.

They are probing the West. Instead of a shovel to the nose, they’ve found weakness and are exploiting it. From rational sociopaths I would expect nothing less. The lesson we need them to learn can only be patiently taught by an electrified fence. I’m glad we’ve begun to string one.

Aug 22, 2008 - 4:27 am 15. wretchard:

Want to see a Domino Effect? Watch one ABM supporting government after another fall in Europe.

You know this like you know that God doesn’t exist (see the post 42)? Are you as reliable in one knowledge domain as your are in the other? I don’t think you know what’s going to happen in the future. I don’t think you know anything for sure about the existence of God. But of course that applies to me too.

Aug 22, 2008 - 4:35 am 16. Doug:

Russia Troop withdrawal in its ‘final phase’
—
“Russian troops are in full compliance with international agreements,” Col. Gen. Anatoly Nogovitsyn told reporters at his daily briefing Friday.

He confirmed that Russia’s military had suspended cooperation with NATO because of the rift over its actions in Georgia.

“Yes, we refrain from the exercises, but it is only a response,” Nogovitsyn said. “It is not the Russian side that provoked it.”

He also questioned why ships from NATO nations had sailed into the Black Sea in recent days. He said German and Spanish ships were now there

Aug 22, 2008 - 4:44 am 17. Doug:

WT_?
“The U.S. ambassador to Russia, John Beyrle, told the Russian business daily Kommersant it had urged Georgia not to launch an attack and that Russia responded in a “legitimate” way, though he went on to say Russia went too far in its military incursion.

His comments represent a public acknowledgment from a senior U.S. official that Russia had some justification for its initial response to Georgia’s attack on South Ossetia.“

Aug 22, 2008 - 4:51 am 18. OldSalt:

“…serial and pathological liar… What do Totten vomit eaters expect? The Russian allow the artillery to sit in place? They give sensitive American and Israeli weapons systems back to the donors? They don’t touch the Gori barracks from where the slaughter was planned?”

Oh..my. Why didn’t you tell us you were Russian, either FSB or simply some poor civilian fool. All that juvenile rhetoric about religion and atheism and such. We all would have treated you with a bit more kindness, due to your condition.

Well, while we’re trading insults across Wretchard’s BLOG, let me make a couple of things clear. I was a military professional. I spent time in lots of interesting places around the globe, and got to know a bit about Russia. Russia’s military machine is nothing but a gang of incompetent drunks, thieves, and rapists. There is no honor, no truth, and no courage amongst Russians in uniform, as the Georgian campaign has proven once again. Russians ought to be scared, because if America ever got half as angry as we were on 9-11, a lot of Russian ships, plans, and armor would be a smoking ruin pretty damn quickly.

Other than that, your just a delightful fellow, and you’re doing a wonderful job of selling your political arguments. Мне бы хотелось побывать в вашей стране. Stay safe now, my friend. Удачи!

Aug 22, 2008 - 4:59 am 19. Lifeofthemind:

The problem with Russia may be similar to the problem with Germany after WW-I. The standard trope regarding Germany is that the Versailes settlement was to harsh and bred resentment that resulted in the rise of Hitler and WW-II. That explanation has legs because it serves to empower both the Appeasement efforts of the right and the Soft Power – Collective Security dreams of the left. In fact the real problem with Germany was that the settlement was to generous. Germany was never forced to admit that it had been defeated on the battlefield. The Armistice and Revoloution gave rise to the “stab in the back” theory. That is what created the conditions for renewed militarization.

Similarly after the collapse of the Soviet Union there was a rush to soothe Russia’s wounded ego. They were encouraged to believe that they too were victims of a few corrupt and incompetent communists. Every effort was made to prop up the new regime and confer it with all the trappings of respect. The dubious claims of corrupt apparatchicks to vast wealth were taken seriously.

It would be better after this latest assault by Russia is repulsed to decisivly defang the bear. Russia must be stripped of her Navy and nuclear potential and pushed far enough north of the Caucasus that she can no longer threaten the links between Europe and the Middle East.

Aug 22, 2008 - 5:37 am 20. Ledger:

If you want to hit Russia where it hurts – then hit them it wallet.

Sell all Russian stocks (or ADRs). Also, ask your pension fund to sell all Russian stocks (or ADRs).

For example sell the Russian Oil company Gazprom (OGZPY) or its equivalents.

This will send the Russian securities market into a decline.

If you really dislike the Russians then short Gazprom and profit from its decline.

Remember to always talk about its negative qualities including possible fraudulent accounting practices while selling the stock.

See: Gazprom quote:
http://www.marketwatch.com/quotes/uk/ogzd

Aug 22, 2008 - 5:42 am 21. supercargo:

Doug:

You have seen the video proof. A transient majority here believes that doing other than propping false 1956/1968 analogies is seditious. Cognitive flows from brains cleaned by elite-detergent, is not opinion; it is political fiction. Don’t want to think about the Fannie Mae bailouts, or Bush’s surrender to Maliki, then embrace partiality and subjectivity. Logic chopping is easy, for the unscrupulous. They will learn.

Jonathan:

Totten follows the money. Finding benign Muslims in Kosovo and Bosnia and Shiite Iraq, is a cash cow. How about Saakashvili’s “democratically elected government”? He won with 52.8% of the vote, after breaking up peaceful demonstrations and jailing the opposition. Euro observers saw multiple voting in the Jan. 5 vote. Back in 2004, Saak won 80% of the vote, on economic promises of prosperity. He squandered a 30 point lead; how much support does he have now, as a war criminal? Soros (Bush is Hitler) beat Bush to the Georgian game; Bush played when Saak delivered token troops to the “Coalition of the Willing.”

The Mutt-Republicans at Rantburg think Russia is planting “spam-bots” in the blogs, to un-Dubcek, Saak. How objective.

Wretchard:

ABMs are no match for multi-head missiles. The current elite consensus has no enduring force. The public – across NATO – will reject another useless arms race. During the Reagan years, Soviet generals would make periodic threats to launch-on-warning.

Did your nominal deity create a source of light and then create a suspended stream of light distant from said source so that it could be detected by telemetry? I believe that your con-men (prophets) didn’t have to deal with those issues because their pigeons didn’t have access to telescopes and paralax measurement methodologies. Abraham, Muhammad, Buddha and Arjuna did not distinguish between stars and meteorites, because in their miniscule universe they were the same thing. Yah, god-has-strange-ways. That explains it.

Will anyone get around to reporting that Russia has a free internet service? They would be happy to address your canonization of Saakashvili. Then again, American resolve depends on keeping the eyeballs away from those Youtube videos that show the results of Saint Saak’s “Clear Fields” operation.

Aug 22, 2008 - 5:47 am 22. Lifeofthemind:

In fact I think it is time for a rehabilitation of the Treaty of Versailles. This especially applies to

ARTICLE 231.
The Allied and Associated Governments affirm and Germany accepts the responsibility of Germany and her allies for causing all the loss and damage to which the Allied and Associated Governments and their nationals have been subjected as a consequence of the war imposed upon them by the aggression of Germany and her allies.

My argument is that without a decisive occupation and supervised reconstruction it is to easy for these revanchist fantasies to take root.

Aug 22, 2008 - 5:55 am 23. wretchard:

ABMs are no match for multi-head missiles. The current elite consensus has no enduring force. The public – across NATO – will reject another useless arms race. During the Reagan years, Soviet generals would make periodic threats to launch-on-warning.

The most awesome thing about dialectical materialism is its remarkable combination of ignorance and belligerence which assumes they are always on the verge of intimidating the world when they are really cutting their own throats; which posits they are the wave of the future when their eyes are firmly fixed on the past. Khrushchev once said “we will bury you” to America. Beck later wrote, “Soy un perdedor, I’am a loser baby, so why don’t you kill me.” There’s really no contradiction between the two observations.

Aug 22, 2008 - 6:02 am 24. voyeur:

Russia should be broken up further to put an end to these ‘Living Dead’ zombie re-makes. Siberia must be liberated. Meanwhile, the Zombie fleet en-route to Syria [Admiral Kunetsov etc] should be sunk. The ‘arranged marriage’ with Syria needs to be anulled before the bride gets pregnant.

Aug 22, 2008 - 6:23 am 25. Matt:

Supercargo –

Most Americans disbelieve anything anyone from the former SU has to say about anything at anytime. Not to put too fine a point on it, but we generally think you guys are a bunch of liars.

To make things worse, you have found in the Belmont Club a group of thinkers for whom your agitprop skills are woefully deficient.

Therefore, posting comments which resemble materialist dialectic read by a poorly-scripted chatbot, while amusing to some, is largely a waste of your employer’s money.

Dude, you’ve been made. Give it up.

Aug 22, 2008 - 6:26 am 26. Dan:

“Michael Totten is a serial and pathological liar.”

Truly a phrase I never thought I would see. And having read Totten for a VERY long time, I can assure you that he has my trust, respect and admiration.

You? Not so much. In fact, not at all.

Aug 22, 2008 - 6:33 am 27. RAH:

Now Georgians are Americans

This viewpoint by Russian soldiers and the Russian volunteers that rushed to S. Ossetia to fight is a curious viewpoint. Georgia is a new republic and has been encouraged by the Bush Administration to integrate into the Western world. However Georgia is not so Americanized but rather becoming integrated into Europe and the European Union. Most of the trade and investment in Georgian businesses and natural resource development has been from Europe not America.

America’s input has been basically training and upgrading it’s military. Primarily for America’s own interest in building foreign sources that can help in Afghanistan and Iraq.
The BTC pipeline was encouraged by the Clinton Administration as an alternative to Russian dominance as a supplier to Europe’s oil and gas demands. BP (Britain) is the dominant partner in this venture and Chevron (USA) is a minor partner.

However the culture of Freedom is American and America has managed to dominate popular culture in Europe for decades. The institutions WTO, NATO, UN were all created by America. Curiously these institutions were basically a gift to the western world so that economic prosperity could increase and conflicts between nations could be soothed to decrease the chance of devastation on the European continent.

America really did not need NATO, UN and WTO since America was a self-sufficient country and had limited risk of war happening within its own borders. However after fighting two major wars because of European conflicts, America decided no more if we could help it and decided it was better to remold European institutions. The major countries Germany and Japan had total makeovers, since they were the aggressors.

Russians have been accustom to thinking that USA is the enemy since the end of WWII. So it not surprising that it is easy to slip back in that thinking. USA has led in the effort to seduce the former Soviet Republics to the west and enjoy the prosperity and peace the west has enjoyed. This is a seductive vision. But to leave government security to the risk of free enterprise is frightening and difficult.

Americans had over 100 years of self-rule with very limited oversight to develop the culture and rules that governed themselves. The colonists were risk takers and decided to carve out of the wilderness farms and towns and face possibly hostile native populations. Capitalist economic system was normal for centuries in England so that was normal, but America just eliminated the class system that restricted a person’s ability to rise to his potential. This bred self-confidence and self-reliance into the American people and taking risks is an accepted part of life.

Americans take that for granted but other cultures that have been used to authoritarian rule like Czarist Russia and the USSR do not have the culture that one has to take care of them selves and not expect to be taken care of by their overlord or government. The USSR devolved into criminal oligarchs that took control of the major means of productions again shutting out the private entrepreneur. Russia did not have the code of justice (common law) that helped equalize the parties in disputes. Russians are more comfortable with a strong ruler to take care of them and their interests and have a lot of pride in country. The move to a capitalist economy was very difficult and without centuries of common law that American had inherited from England, did quickly devolve to the strongest people win and the weakest lose in the capital economy. Putin did break up that dominance by oligarchs and just substituted his own people like Medevev at Gazprom

So in the Russian mindset the border republics belong to either Russia or America. When Georgia challenged Russia then they must be America and this was an American idea.
So Cossacks and other volunteers and even the Russian soldiers think they are getting a chance to fight America since Georgia is our proxy.

Iraq was an attraction to all those jihadists to get a chance to kill Americans. Most were not from Iraq but from all other countries that took the chance, Iraq was the flypaper that brought all those to a location where they could be killed and observers could learn that fighting Americans is a losing proposition.

Probably a lot of Russians were thinking the same. After all under the feudal system an overlord protects his subject countries like Russia did to S. Ossetia, it is normal for them to think that Georgia’s overlord, the USA would do the same. Certainly Georgia’s president thought the same way. Georgia provided troops to its overlord in Iraq and thus under feudal rules the overlord will protect them when they are attacked.

The Russian asking if the Georgian man was going to the Americans makes perfect sense in this cultural viewpoint.

Aug 22, 2008 - 6:43 am 28. Teresita:

Supercargo: ABMs are no match for multi-head missiles.

As currently deployed, you are correct. However, it will force Russia to use multi-head missiles for every attack, and the better Star Wars gets (with lasers supplementing ABMs), the more warheads Russia must use on each MIRV. Every incremental improvement in missile defense brings us closer to the day when the number of indepedently-targeted warheads on each ICBM required to penetrate the shield exceeds the payload capacity of even your largest rocket.

During the Reagan years, Soviet generals would make periodic threats to launch-on-warning.

That’s the difference between the US and the SU: Civilians are in charge of our military and they get to make all the threats, not the generals. But if the US gets attacked, the excuse that it was a rogue general won’t cut it. We’ll hit back with disproportionate force. And if the attack is nuclear, a disproportionate response would be unthinkably devastating.

Aug 22, 2008 - 6:45 am 29. Insufficiently Sensitive:

He went to the Balkans to spew deceit; now he is doing the same thing in the Caucasus.

A group of academic intellectuals or MSM journalists might cheer those observations. However, those of us who have experience in former Yugoslavia can recognize blatant misrepresentation when we see it. Totten doesn’t deal in it.

Totten 100, ’supercargo’ 0.

Aug 22, 2008 - 6:49 am 30. supercargo:

wretchard:

The Soviet Union collapsed after the discreditation of the planners, and that was the result of the nuclear mess in the Ukraine. I have a copy of Iurii Shcherbak’s book, “Chernobyl” which documents the forward thrust toward building an unworkable reactor built in the wrong place, and constructed in contempt of common sense and public safety. People demanded answers from all levels of government. When bureaucrats resisted, CP Premier Gorbachev announced policy demands favoring “openness” and “restructioning” (of the planning system, to rationalize same). Glasnost and Perestroika led to criticism of the Soviet system itself, and finally its demise. American policy followed Gorbachev initiatives. Under the Brezhnev/Andropov governments, Reagan’s space based anti-missile scheme was nothing but a ploy to get START results. And it worked. Bush’s ABM plan is a scheme that will reverse START gains, and create a new arms race. Nobody wants it; the scheme proceeds because it is not in Bush’s nature to retract his fixations. Why do it? Simple revenge. Bush has used American power to punish any people whose governments refused to participate in his nation-building follies.

Someone has to be brain dead to think that re-nuclearizing Europe can sustain popular support, given invocable memories of Chernobyl. And Europeans are subjecting Saakashvili to the scrutiny that the American media won’t touch.

You don’t like contradictions. Saakashvili is your hero, and he is a war criminal. He lies because he was told to lie by unscrupulous Mutt-Republicans who feed on deceit. Hero or villian?
http://www.new.facebook.com/video/video.php?v=1019825981431&oid=22347223862

Three hours before his murderous attack on civilians, he promised “autonomy” to South Ossetia. You see how he blamed the Russians for his murder/cleansing campaign, and used his controlled press forum to concoct Human Rights Watch accession to his lies. Real hero. Real good pal for McCain and his Machiavellian aide.

Aug 22, 2008 - 7:11 am 31. Joseph Somsel:

As to Ledger’s suggestion about selling Gazprom or shorting it, why bother? The Russian government owns 50.1% of the stock and controls Gazprom as an arm of the government. Only fools bought the minority shares (like the Germans and their utility E.ON).

Reagan warned the Europeans about Gazprom and dependency on their natural gas and now they’ve got their hooks into the European economy.

In the long run, the West needs to build nuclear reactors to replace the gas. Look for an article in AmericanThinker.com shortly called “Sticking it to Gazprom” with details.

That Supercargo sure is an imaginative guy, isn’t he? I will agree with him on the poor basic design of the RMBK reactors. You lose coolant and the power goes up automatically! How dumb is that?

Aug 22, 2008 - 7:28 am 32. BigLeeH:

Totten follows the money.

So he is not only a pathological liar spewing deceit but an astonishingly poor tracker as well.

Aug 22, 2008 - 7:49 am 33. Yashmak:

“The Soviet Union collapsed after the discreditation of the planners, and that was the result of the nuclear mess in the Ukraine.”

Is that the narrative you’ve been fed? The Soviet Union collapsed because it lacked the economic wherewithal to keep up in the arms race. Too much money into weapons, too little into other vital areas which could have grown the economy in the long term. The ‘planners’ may have been discredited, but it was because it quickly became clear that after all that military spending, the first time Western equipment and Soviet bloc equipment met on the field (Desert Storm) in full-scale combat, the last vestiges of Russian pride (it’s conventional military might) showed itself to be a paper tiger. . .stomped flat by the coalition in a matter of days. The planners certainly hadn’t shown the people that they were being provided a better standard of living than the western system offered.

We here all realize that Putin is most likely doing what he feels he must, in a shrinking time window, to try and salvage his failing nation. I imagine 70% of pregnancies ending in abortion will lead you to desperate measures, not to mention a rapidly dwindling population. Perhaps he believes that stomping on a relatively defenseless nation will revive national pride to the point that his citizens want to have children again. Or maybe he just thinks he can further put a hammerlock on energy for Europe.

To call the Pres of Georgia Machiavellian and not apply the same description to Putin and his figurehead is patently absurd.

Aug 22, 2008 - 7:57 am 34. jdwill:

I have been reading Michael Totten since 9-11 and he is the most open and honest writer I know of on the Web.

Aug 22, 2008 - 8:01 am 35. Mike Sylwester:

Supercargo, I agree with many of your arguments, but you are personally offensive and insulting. You can criticize Michael Totten without calling him a liar. Debate civilly.

Aug 22, 2008 - 8:03 am 36. Dan:

Ralph Peters’ latest on Pootie… and it is a very interesting article:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/08/the_end_of_the_fairy_tale.html

Aug 22, 2008 - 8:05 am 37. wretchard:

Totten follows the money.

As a livelihood, being a freelance journalist or a blogger supported by reader contributions is strictly from hunger. That’s the reason why most bloggers have day jobs. This is not an opinion, it is a fact. One that is easily checked by trying it yourself. So if Michael was following the money, he’d follow it right out of blogging.

How easy it is to be so sure of things. Supercargo is sure of the nonexistence of God. The futlity of NATO. The monetary avidity of Michael Totten. But while these issues are separable, when you examine one assertion carefully — that Totten follows the money — it turns out to be completely false. So what is the assurance the rest of Supercargo’s analysis is accurate? Only what evidence he can actually produce. All these assertions based on supposed obviousness are nothing but unsupported opinions. And everyone has those.

Aug 22, 2008 - 8:17 am 38. Charles:

So neither Putin or Obama are communists. Yet they have both evolved from those pasts into what?

Aug 22, 2008 - 8:23 am 39. NahnCee:

Supercargo – the nice thing about Belmont Club is that a poster’s name is the first thing you see on his/her post. Therefore, once you’ve figured out where that person is coming from and what they bring to the party, you can either read what they have to say or you can just skip it because you know in advance that’s it’s junk.

Guess which you are.

I’ve been thinking that Totten is going to get himself shot, always going where he shouldn’t be going and asking what he shouldn’t be asking, and wouldn’t it be ironic if he gets shot by a drunken Russian rather than a frothing Al-Queda terrorist. Does that make drunken Russian soldiers the new terrorists?

Aug 22, 2008 - 8:41 am 40. exhelodrvr:

“So what is the assurance the rest of Supercargo’s analysis is accurate?”

Well, NATO outlasted the Warsaw Pact. And Georgia wants to join NATO. Those items would seem to argue against it’s futility.

Aug 22, 2008 - 8:42 am 41. Peter Boston:

From the Ralph Peter’s article

“…this latest burst of Russian imperialism will end badly for Russia-eventually. Russia’s patterns are deeply ingrained, and Putin is the quintessential Russian in his ambitions (if not in his tee-totaling). Russia always overreaches, and Putin will, too. But the longer he is left unchecked, the grimmer and costlier the ultimate confrontation is going to be.”

That’s a good summation of the most likely end game, even if we do not know how it will play out. The possibility of a shooting war with Russia was not on the list a year or so ago but I must agree with Peters that Putin has enough internal support to raise the ante by making a move on Urkraine – and probably sooner than later.

I doubt that Poland and the Baltic states will meekly accept a new “Soviet” neighbor.

Aug 22, 2008 - 9:03 am 42. Mike Sylwester:

Georgia had the opportunity to be perceived as the good guy defending its own sovereign, internationally recognized borders, but blew that opportunity by bombing a city inhabited by non-Georgian Ossetians.

Russia had the opportunity to be perceived as the good guy, coming to the defense of the bombed Ossetians, but blew that opportunity by rampaging through Georgian villages and towns.

Now the USA has the opportunity to be perceived as the good guy, reporting the situation objectively and frankly and striving to resolve the conflict in a restrained and constructive manner. I hope we don’t blow our own opportunity.

Aug 22, 2008 - 9:13 am 43. 2x4:

Mike, that is all nice, but pray tell what are the details of “restrained and constructive manner”.

I have a vague feeling that I’ve heard these words before. Some British dude, 70 years ago?

I would go with “constructive”. There has been enough restrain already that if converted it to energy, we would be driving free for several years.

Granted, my “constructive” may substantially differ from yours, but who is to tell if you don’t? Pray tell, what is it, what does it cover in your book?

Aug 22, 2008 - 9:22 am 44. Teresita:

Voyeur: Russia should be broken up further to put an end to these ‘Living Dead’ zombie re-makes. Siberia must be liberated.

Putin has shown us the way. China merely needs to start issuing passports for people in the Russian far east, and then start sending “peacekeeping forces” to protect the new Chinese citizens in the breakaway republic of Primorsky Krai.

Ledger: This will send the Russian securities market into a decline.

Been there, done that.

Aug 11: MOSCOW: Russia’s stock market dropped to a 22-month low Monday after Russia expanded its military confrontation with Georgia over the separatist region of South Ossetia.

Aug 22, 2008 - 9:22 am 45. RWE:

I know a man who came here from Germany shortly after WWII.

He said that when the Soviet troops invaded Germany they were removing the light switches and taking them. They did not have electric lights at home and thought the switches would provide that. Good to see they have learned nothing since then.

When the left wing coupe in Russia failed in August 1991, I taped a remarkable segment of CBS News 48 Hours show. They were interviewing the foreign minister of the Federal Republic of Russia. They were eager to hear what he thought about what would happen next. But he had a message for the CBS newsmen that he insisted on communicating first. He said “We in Russia have always been told that the democracies of the West were our enemies. We know now that they were our best friends. The Soviet Union was not a union, it was an evil empire!”

All the CBS guys could do was giggle, and try to change the subject. They knew who had had called the USSR an Evil Empire. And they knew what they had said about Ronald Reagan, too.

I still have that tape, in case anyone wants a copy.

Aug 22, 2008 - 10:43 am 46. programmer:

To SuperCargo:

A Cup of Tea

Nan-in, a Japanese master during the Meiji era (1868-1912), received a university professor who came to inquire about Zen.

Nan-in served tea. He poured his visitor’s cup full, and then kept on pouring.
The professor watched the overflow until he no longer could restrain himself. “It is overfull. No more will go in!”

“Like this cup,” Nan-in said, “you are full of your own opinions and speculations. How can I show you Zen unless you first empty your cup?”

Your mind is like a cup of tea. Empty your cup..

Aug 22, 2008 - 10:51 am 47. Joe Buzz:

Mike S. was the Georgian crew that started the shelling detained or questioned about their orders?

Aug 22, 2008 - 11:00 am 48. Konyok:

supercargo,

Don’t you wish that you were in the west where you could drink some nice Georgian wine?

Aug 22, 2008 - 11:18 am 49. Konyok:

Mike Sylwester,

I do believe that America is trying to be the good guy by limited her response to giving humanitarian aid. (Of course, this aid is itself a warning to Russia to be careful of where her troops are attacking. I firmly believe that this is one of the critical points that Putin considered when he decided not to press on to Tblisi.)

Aug 22, 2008 - 11:59 am 50. Dave:

RWE; Back during that 91 coup attempt, in Moscow I saw Boris Yeltsin tear down the hammer and sickle flag.

I also saw Mayor Art Agnos raise that same flag on the steps of San Francisco City Hall to say “welcome back” to his Uncle Gorby when the coup failed.

My comment then was “the foreign adventurism is going great but the homefront is lagging behined”. Today? Same difference.

Aug 22, 2008 - 12:20 pm 51. buddy larsen:

Yes, supercargo, why not lighten up and join the world? Do you really want to be a part of this continuum?

Aug 22, 2008 - 12:22 pm 52. coisty:

“So the Russians view you as the American side, even though there are no Americans here.”

“Yes,” she said. “Because our way is for democracy.”

I laughed out loud when I read that. Why? Because after reading his Balkan stuff I figured he’d go to Georgia and find pro-democracy pro-American Georgians just like he found America-loving Albanians. He went there to find America-loving Muslims (no doubt to justify his ideological outlook) and ugly Serbs then happily reported back that he had found some. He basically gave us the usual MSM view of Serbia. (Anyone who reports on Kosovo without mentioning the results of the investigations into the fabricated genocide charges is nothing more than a propagandist). Totten makes his mind up before going to a place then seeks confirmation.

I wonder if he is naive enough to actually believe the woman’s statement.

It reminds me of my childhood in Northern Ireland where Loyalists/Republicans told different foreign visitors different things depending on what was likely to these foreigners to sympathise with their side.

But apparently even rank-and-file Russian soldiers view the Georgians and Americans as allies.

More likely the Russians see the Georgians as American lapdogs. The Russians are not alone in thinking that.

Aug 22, 2008 - 12:31 pm 53. coisty:

Make that: It reminds me of my childhood in Northern Ireland where Loyalists/Republicans told different foreign visitors different things depending on what was likely to make these foreigners sympathise with their side.

Aug 22, 2008 - 12:33 pm 54. Doug:

Wow, Art Agnos!
I didn’t know he was ever Mayor.
A missing period in my awareness of the recent history of SF.
Bet he couldn’t hold a candle to Newsom wrt to dismantling what is left that is decent in the beautiful nuthouse by the Bay.
LA and SF both have RADICAL, destructive crooks in charge, both w/dreams of becoming Gov.

Aug 22, 2008 - 12:36 pm 55. whiskey:

A couple of observations:

1. The level of discourse has gotten worse as the number of commenters has risen. Sadly.

2. Russia is not Germany, and Putin not Hitler. Putin wants his thug network intact, and expanded to pay them. But has no real ideology or world-ruling agenda, merely Capone-styled thuggery scaled up.

3. There is no real effective military force in Europe save a few divisions of US troops, and the rather limited effectiveness of Russian troops. Unilateral disarmament means even Russia can be effective in intimidating Europe.

4. NATO is a dead institution ala the Holy Roman Empire: it consists of the US forces and the fig leaf of what Michael Yon (in referring to Afghanistan) called “the Special Forces Olympics.” Europeans outside of Russia have no real military force whatsoever, outside of the UK and French nuclear forces, of questionable efficiency and number. Even if NATO wanted to, it lacks the means outside the US to respond in military fashion to threats to Poland and the Baltics and other nations excluding nuclear forces.

5. Most of Western Europe’s elites have no real will, and are in direct conflict with that of the populist demands of their people. Coupled with fiscal crises of mounting welfare demands and crashing revenues due to depopulation of the productive part of the populations (natives) and influx of welfare-seeking Muslims from elsewhere.

6. The USSR crashed when the Politburo could no longer pay the money needed to keep troops and local proxies in power (due to crashing oil prices). That lesson was well learnt by Putin who aims to keep oil high so his thugs get paid.

7. If Georgia was removed from reality, fundamental conflicts between Putin’s need to keep oil prices high and the West/China’s to keep them low would mean lots of conflict with Russia.

8. Putin’s big play is help arm Iran with nukes and point them at the US, while intimidating Eastern Europeans; Eastern European elites know they’ll lose power and economic opportunity (along with their people) as a satrapy of Russia so will arm up, without US forces, using nukes which are the EQUALIZER of military prowess. See: Iran, Pakistan.

I fully expect the logic of military spending, and the effectiveness of nukes to encourage rapid nuclear proliferation in Eastern Europe as a survival mechanism. If nukes keep Pakistan and Iran immune from a US response, they will keep Poland and Ukraine and the Baltics and other nations immune from a Russian one.

Thus Supercargo, the alternative is not hugs and puppies to a US led protective umbrella over Eastern Europe. It is everyone on the Continent nuking up very, very quickly. Which given threats by Pakistan and Iran to Western Europe over things like cartoons, was going to happen anyway absent a US protective umbrella. Without the US it will happen very rapidly, within a few years.

Aug 22, 2008 - 12:36 pm 56. Joseph Somsel:

Should the US facilitate new nuclear weapon states in Eastern Europe?

Should we threaten to help, like we suggested to China about Japan/Taiwan over North Korea?

If the global non-proliferation regime is going to fail, might we consider helping it along in a direction that benefits the US and democracies?

Aug 22, 2008 - 12:47 pm 57. fedya:

READER’S DIGEST VERSION OF SUPERCARGO

What did we do to lose SuperCargo? Poor widdle poo-poo… izzums frothing and spraying becauszzums izzums angwy aboutumzz widdle DEFEAT? Awwww…

======================
a serial and pathological liar
spew deceit
Saakashvili ethnic cleansers
Totten vomit eaters
elite sourced repertoire of deferential phrases
subsidize bankrupt mortgage companies
the worst ethnic cleansers in the Caucasus

Watch one ABM supporting government after another fall in Europe.
the stupid leading the stupid.

======================
propping false 1956/1968 analogies is seditious
Cognitive flows from brains cleaned by elite-detergent
Finding benign Muslims in Kosovo and Bosnia and Shiite Iraq, is a cash cow
Saakashvili’s “democratically elected government”
a war criminal?
Soros (Bush is Hitler) beat Bush to the Georgian game

Mutt-Republicans at Rantburg

ABMs are no match for multi-head missiles
elite consensus has no enduring force
god-has-strange-ways. That explains it.

canonization of Saakashvili.
Youtube videos…of Saint Saak’s “Clear Fields” operation.

======================
Bush’s ABM plan is a scheme
not in Bush’s nature to retract his fixations
Simple revenge
punish any people whose governments refused to participate

has to be brain dead
given invocable memories of Chernobyl.
You don’t like contradictions.
a war criminal.
He lies because he was told to lie
Mutt-Republicans who feed on deceit

his murderous attack on civilians,
concoct Human Rights Watch accession to his lies
good pal for McCain and his Machiavellian aide.

Aug 22, 2008 - 12:54 pm 58. Paul:

According to Charles Krauthammer, the NATO alliance in their communique following this week’s meeting, could not even bring themselves to condemn Russian aggression. Russian also will not even be thrown out of the G8, because the Brits were against it. So here we have a nation in Georgia , that is almost voted to be a NATO member, which NATO not only won’t lift a finger to defended militarily, NATO won’t even defend them VERBALLY! A fine alliance they turned out to be.

This communique I’m afraid seems also to expose where the US is coming down on this matter. Wouldn’t you think Bush and Condi would have tried a little harder to get something a wee bit stronger than this if we were really supplying Georgia with something more than Humanitarian aid.

Aug 22, 2008 - 12:57 pm 59. Lifeofthemind:

Price of oil drops, BTC pipeline being tested for restart.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080822/ap_on_bi_ge/oil_prices_142
Seems like a good time to sieze control of Hormuz and the Iranian ports.

Aug 22, 2008 - 1:00 pm 60. coisty:

the women seemed to understand what Russian imperialism has always been about—and not just during the Soviet era

Georgians still honour Joseph Stalin. If it weren’t for Stalin South Ossetia would never have been Georgian territory in the first place. If it weren’t for the Ukrainian Krushchev Crimea (with a Russian majority) would not be in Ukraine. So many of these supposedly anti-communist nations insist on keeping the borders they were rewarded with under communism. Ditto the Croatians and parts of Krajina.

You can’t have it both ways. If you’re going to claim your nation suffered under a form of Russian colonialism in the Soviet Union you can’t then turn around and claim the extended borders given to your nation whilst the USSR still existed are somehow sacred.

I understand why there wasn’t a redrawing of borders after the collapse of the USSR – it would’ve been chaotic and bloody – but the borders are not just. More importantly they are planted mines that will go off some day in the future. Who could argue that South Ossetians should be forced to live under Georgian rule just because of where Stalin drew lines on a map?

With the US setting a precedent in Kosovo I suppose it is too much to hope for some internationally accepted procedure and conditions for redrawing borders. What state will voluntarily give up some its territory? Unfortunately, none is the likely answer.

Aug 22, 2008 - 1:03 pm 61. Lifeofthemind:

The price of oil falls and the BTC pipeline is being tested for a restart.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080822/ap_on_bi_ge/oil_prices_142
Seems like a good time to seize Hormuz and the Iranian ports.

Aug 22, 2008 - 1:04 pm 62. Lifeofthemind:

Why are my posts vanishing?

Aug 22, 2008 - 1:05 pm 63. Yashmak:

whiskey,
I believe you underestimate the military strength of Europe. Perhaps not relative to its height at the peak of the Cold War, but relative to the diminished state of Russia’s military, it’s still quite powerful.

Russia’s total military manpower, once several times that of the USA, is now around half as large as our nation alone.

Britain’s armed forces outnumber the Russians as well, nowadays, and they have fully equipped modern armor regiments.

Europe has gotten softer, but I doubt it’s as soft as you make it out to be. . . at least not yet.

Aug 22, 2008 - 1:07 pm 64. Lifeofthemind:

The price of oil is falling and the BTC pipeline is being tested for restart. Seems like a good time to seize the Iranian ports and Hormuz.

Aug 22, 2008 - 1:07 pm 65. DanM:

Whiskey,

A long time ago, I posted something to the effect of – “The U.S. problem is being a hegemonic power and not acting like one”. We have no one to blame for our current situation but ourselves.

re: #8 – With EU in place? I must admit ignorance on the EU “charter” and military spending, but I see an uphill battle getting them to advance the nuclear umbrella.

Aug 22, 2008 - 1:08 pm 66. fedya:

@coisty:
they are planted mines….argue that South Ossetians should be forced to live under Georgian rule just because of where Stalin drew lines on a map?

Actually, on the South slopes of the Greater Causcasus, the few “Ossetians” there were originally migrant farm workers, even under Stalin. Stalin simply continued the Czarist practice of moving client populations into other populations’ territories for the express purpose of giving his forces a “political” excuse to go in and kick anyone’s butts anytime He wanted. Ossetians were a compliant and easily moved pawn in this game from the beginnings of Czarist manipulations of the Caucasus. Plus, they were lots less trouble than the Cossack tribes, albeit much less vicious.

No, there are few Ossettians in South Ossettia. There are many soloviki, however, masquerading as “Ossettians”. Soloviki, are, of course, by and large ethnic Russians, the same ones buying up the Riviera and Brooklyn. We call them the Russian Mafia.

Aug 22, 2008 - 1:16 pm 67. Lifeofthemind:

coisty’s comments should be mailed to every African and Asian member of the UN with a note asking if they really want to side with Moscow or the US if their is a dispute over the integrity of current borders. Russia is foolish for opening that can of worms. If they want to go back to the 19th century world of ethnic problems then they need to revive the 19th century system of diplomatic conferences. This unilateral land grab to supposedly defend a friend stopped being believable long before the French left Lebannnon. However I do believe that Israel should annex Bethlehem and kick out the recent Moslem intruders who have displaced the native Christians.

Aug 22, 2008 - 1:16 pm 68. Aether:

Whiskey

The European armed forces are no paper tiger… they have a large qualitative edge in equipment, training, and professionalism compared to the Russians and appropriate logistics to move those forces to the battlefield and sustain operations.

(btw, The British forces aren’t even close to outnumbering the Russians, except possibly, the Royal Navy)

Clearly, at the present time the Euro’s willpower is lacking, however that can quickly change.

The Bear is certanily a dangerous foe however as evidenced by it’s current oprations in Gerogia, their ability to project and sustain forces outside their periphery is somewhat limited. That said, It does appear that Putin is working very hard on eliminating that shortcoming.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_of_the_European_Union#Military_forces_and_groups

Britain:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Armed_Forces#Current_strength

France:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_Army

Germany:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_Armed_Forces#Transformation

Poland:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_of_Poland

Spain:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_Army

—
Russia:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Armed_Forces#Organization

Aug 22, 2008 - 1:17 pm 69. Konyok:

fedya,

I’ve looked at the map and scratched my head. If the Roki tunnel is the only convenient route through that section of the Greater Caucasus, then how did all of those indigenous Ossets get there in the first place? It doesn’t look like an organic distribution – Ossets along the road and Georgians on the hillsides.

Of course, the Caucasus is such a crazy patchwork of ethnic villages – almost 50 languages. It is definitely the counter example for the notion of the nation state.

Aug 22, 2008 - 1:24 pm 70. Aristide:

“MOSCOW — The U.S. ambassador to Moscow, in a rare U.S. comment endorsing Russia’s initial moves in Georgia, described the Kremlin’s first military response as legitimate after Russian troops came under attack.”
Russia’s first Georgia move legitimate: U.S. envoyRussia’s first Georgia move legitimate: U.S. envoy

“MOSCOW — The U.S. ambassador to Moscow, in a rare U.S. comment endorsing Russia’s initial moves in Georgia, described the Kremlin’s first military response as legitimate after Russian troops came under attack.”

Aug 22, 2008 - 1:27 pm 71. Aristide:

@Konyok

how did all of those indigenous Ossets get there in the first place?

When the Mongols are chasing you, back in the 1200s, you find ways across the mountains.

Aug 22, 2008 - 1:30 pm 72. 2x4:

Aristide, nope. It was Turks that chased Ossetins from their homeland in the Don area, and the Georgian kingdom let some of the displaced Ossetins settle in Georgia proper.
Ossetins are just “repaying” Georgian kindness.

Aug 22, 2008 - 1:47 pm 73. Tom Cohoe:

I think the Russians have decided that their population is not falling fast enough, and so they have come to Gori and environs to see if they can find another Iosef Vissarionovich Dzhugashvili (aka Stalin) who got rid of twenty or thirty million of them.

Aug 22, 2008 - 1:48 pm 74. Konyok:

Aristide,

Then we’d expect to see a more general phenomenon of peoples straddling the Greater Caucasus. Chechens to the south, Azeris to the north.

Of course, the Ossets escaped the Mongols by fleeing the steppes to the mountains. I suspect that the southern populations were placed by the Russians along the road to service and protect the road.

Aug 22, 2008 - 1:50 pm 75. Eversor:

@Lifeofthemind

If Oil prices keep falling we won’t have to attack Iran. Their sole source of income would be denied to them.

I am no “environmentalist” but the thought of bankrupting all the countries that hate America make driving a Prius quite an attractive proposition to this “Red-meat” Republican.

Maybe America’s new secret weapon for geo-political change will be GM’s electric car: the Volt.

Aug 22, 2008 - 1:53 pm 76. fedya:

@Konyok:
I’ve looked at the map and scratched my head. If the Roki tunnel is the only convenient route through that section of the Greater Caucasus

Well, when one realizes that all three highways across the Greater Caucasus enter from North Ossettia, and recall the pro-Czarist role Ossettians played as a client population, one sees how the Ossetians (speaking an Iranian language related to Pashtun-!) depend on their Russian masters.

By the way, the Czarist Ossettian Okrug in Georgia was upgraded by Stalin to an Autonomous Region, contradicting smears by “supercargo” and others that Georgians somehow benefited from Stalin’s rule by divide and kill.

The three Czarist military highways across the Greater Caucasus enter Georgia at:
1) Mamison Pass, down into Oni and finally Kutaisi, opening on the plain to the Black Sea.
2) Roki Pass, now tunnel, down into Java, Kurti, Tskhinvali and the central plain around Gori
3) The ancient route through the Darial Gorge, up over the Cross Pass and down past Godari, the Zhinvali reservoir, Dusheti and into Mtskheta and Tbilisi.

Only the route from Roki enters South “Ossettian” territory.

To get to Akhmeta and Kvareli where much of the best wine is made, the Russkies would have to cross a bunch of mountains, the least at Mtskheta-Tbilisi or come up from Armenia.

Air cover. Georgia needs air cover at least over areas under its control.

Aug 22, 2008 - 2:16 pm 77. fedya:

@Konyok:
I suspect that the southern populations were placed by the Russians along the road to service and protect the road.

That’s my suspicion in a nutshell. Even if some Ossettians moved into Georgia as refugee farm laborers, their recognized status under the Czars depended entirely on their being picked for “the team” as opposed to two dozen other ethnic groups within any 100 mile radius.

Aug 22, 2008 - 2:23 pm 78. M. Simon:

A bit of news from Iran today. They need to buy 1/3 of their wheat consumption from the USA – 5 million tons – since there are currently no alternate suppliers. Also check that they have reigned in Hizballah.

Hunger Stalks Iran

Cross posted from a previous thread.

Aug 22, 2008 - 2:32 pm 79. Mark Maps:

US destroyer USS McFaul enters the Black Sea. Putin (and Turkey) understands we mean business:

http://www.todayszaman.com/tz-web/detaylar.do?load=detay&link=150914&bolum=102

http://www.jeffhead.com/georgia/20-24.htm

Aug 22, 2008 - 3:03 pm 80. Mike Sylwester:

Fedya:
“on the South slopes of the Greater Causcasus, the few “Ossetians” there were originally migrant farm workers, even under Stalin. Stalin simply continued the Czarist practice of moving client populations …. No, there are few Ossettians in South Ossettia. There are many soloviki, however, masquerading as “Ossettians”. ”
————-

I’m curious where you get your version of the facts. Please provide a link.

According to the article in
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ossetians
there are about 700,000 Ossetians. About 515,000 live in Russia, about 65,000 live in South Ossetia, about 38,000 live in other parts of Georgia (i.e. about 103,000 live in Georgia) and about 100,000 live in Turkey.

Ethnographers have studied and counted these nationalities for many decades. These census numbers were not pulled out of a hat last month. Do you really believe that some significant portion of the 38,000 Ossetians living in South Ossetia are Russian “siloviki” pretending to be fake Ossetians?

If so, then give us your best estimate, Fedya. Do you estimate that, say, about 10,000 Russian siloviki are there pretending to be Ossetians? Or do you think the number is closer to 15,000 or 20,000?

The Ossetian population in Georgia is ancient. One Ossetian tribe, called the Jazones, claims to be descendents of the Jason in the ancient Greek myth of Jason and the Argonauts, involving a golden fleece in Georgia.

Aug 22, 2008 - 3:26 pm 81. Mongoose:

Food for thought.

Aug 22, 2008 - 3:47 pm 82. Mike Sylwester:

coisty:
“If it weren’t for Stalin South Ossetia would never have been Georgian territory in the first place. If it weren’t for the Ukrainian Krushchev Crimea (with a Russian majority) would not be in Ukraine.”
——-

Your comment makes some very good points, but I think Georgia’s borders were established long before the Soviet period. I’d like to see this historical point clarified.

I think some commentators here are making too big of a deal about Stalin’s role. Just because borders were defined during Stalin’s rule does not mean that the decisions were arbitrary, unreasonable or unjust or that Stalin personally had anything at all to do with the decisions.

As coisty points out so aptly, it is ironic that that so many people who roundly criticize Soviet nationality policies as arbitrary, perverse and wicked are now treating all the borders established by the Soviet Union as inerrantly wise and eternally sacred.

Aug 22, 2008 - 4:09 pm 83. Mike Sylwester:

2×4:
“what are the details of “restrained and constructive manner”.
————

Most importantly, let’s calm down the rhetoric. We can be critical without being hostile and threatening.

Let’s help with construction and resettlement. Let’s help establish the facts about what happened. Let’s help the people of good will on all sides to exert their own influence.

In my opinion, the USA should publicly withdraw our proposals to incorporate Georgia and Ukraine into NATO. We can develop our military relationships in that region at a lower level of cooperation and obligation. Maybe there will be a time in the future, in a decade or so, when we might re-initiate this proposal, but we should recognize that it might cause a lot more trouble than advantage right now.

Let’s extend a hand to the Ossetians. Definitely some fact-finding missions. Maybe some cultural exchanges, some scholarships, some fellowships, etc. Let’s show some interest and and concern about their small nationality.

We have a lot of influence among the Georgians. Let’s continue to help them economically, politically and militarily. Let’s give them good advice, perhaps some lessons from our own experience dealing with ethnic minorities.

Aug 22, 2008 - 4:24 pm 84. 2x4:

In my opinion, the USA should publicly withdraw our proposals to incorporate Georgia and Ukraine into NATO

Shark will smell blood and go for the kill. It amazes me that being in the same age group as I am, you simply refuse to see it.

It is not that we are forcing Georgians and Ukrainins to become NATO members, in fact, Yuros were iffy about it and employed delaying tactics–not to upset the potential Russian overlord. What is important here is that it is what Georgians and Ukrainians want. Why? They see the shark circling.

Aug 22, 2008 - 4:40 pm 85. NahnCee:

In other words, Mike, you’re all for rewarding the Russians for their behavior by funding and rebuilding what they’ve blowed up, by praising them in print, and by promising not to ever be mean to them in the future no matter how awful they’ve been.

Boy, you must be a hell of a parent.

Aug 22, 2008 - 4:42 pm 86. 2x4:

Of course, Ukrainians my actually be rethinking the NATO idea, seeing it is a discussion club, not a defence pact they assumed it to be and will be looking for other, more solid defence arrangements, whether independent or in conjunction — perhaps some Central/Eastern European defense structure with US backing.

The point here is that they think they have a very good reason for it. And I agree that they do, as long as Putin & Thugs Co. rules Russia.

Aug 22, 2008 - 4:51 pm 87. John Samford:

“defending the territorial integrity of the worst ethnic cleansers in the Caucasus”

That would be Russia in Chechnya.

I am amused by how the Russian disinformation campaign keeps trying to steer the comparisons away from Georgia-S. Osseita/ Russia-Chechnya.
One would almost think it was part of a ruse of war. IIRC the Russians have a word for that; ‘Maskovka’ or something like that. Maybe one of you KGB types would be so kind as to correct my spelling.

Russia keeps seeking justification for it rape of Georgia. Most of it is bogus. Here is the BBC take on it, which is only slightly spun in a pro-Russian manner;

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7571096.stm

They left yet? 14 Days and counting.

Aug 22, 2008 - 5:10 pm 88. whiskey:

At Strategy Page:

http://www.strategypage.com/qnd/afghan/articles/20080822.aspx

The opinion is that the Taliban is taking advantage of the unwillingness of NATO to fight there. I’m sure many Eastern European nations are noting this also.

Broadly speaking, Eastern European nations have two options:

1. Surrender to Russia and cut whatever deal is to be made, with the understanding that once the deal is cut Putin or whoever can renege at any time and replace local elites with their own people.

2. Fight to maintain independence, and for the local elites, control of local resources.

This option #2 is likely to be far more attractive. OK, so the local elites in Eastern Europe have decided to fight. How? Western Europe cannot even sustain the modest effort to fight against the Taliban, and will soon shed the military altogether, under pressure from declining tax bases and ever-growing welfare states. Aid from NATO which does not exist as a military organization outside the US forces is not to be relied upon.

Eastern European states will adopt the American Tripwire strategy (as used in South Korea, West Germany during the Cold War) only to the degree that support in the US for the tripwire is bipartisan and the consensus of American elites, that the tripwire is considered genuine.

Otherwise, Eastern European states will re-arm. They are unlikely to match even in Russia’s degraded state, the manpower requirements to resist the first phase of a Russian armored assault, no matter how bad Russian air and logistics would be. But it’s cheap and relatively easy for industrial states to make nukes and missiles. Particularly since the reach required is not global but a few thousand miles.

How much of Poland’s GDP would be required? About 10% of the 2006 GDP at $620 billion at purchasing power parity (according to CIA World Factbook) would do it I think. That’s $62 billion. That ought to buy missiles capable of reaching St. Petersburg and Moscow, and nukes, and the hardened facilities inside Poland to survive a first strike. There might even be enough left over for a ballistic missile submarine purchased from Israel or India. About $62 billion would purchase at my guess, at least 20 nukes and missiles. Which Moscow could not be sure they’d knock down.

Poland is more than capable of looking after it’s own defense given enough space and time, without the US.

The practical effect, though, without the US, is that Poland will by definition be a proliferating state. At best, incentives for the Czechs, Slovaks, Hungarians, Romanians, Bulgarians, Latvians, Lithuanians, Estonians, Finns, and others to nuke up ASAP. At worst, Poland and other states proliferating might be tempted to shave costs by selling expertise to other nations, creating a seller’s market for nuclear technology and spreading it as a base technology the way say, power plants are purchased.

Which would mean, Egypt, Indonesia, Turkey, Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, all the Gulf states and princelets, would have nukes very soon.

Aug 22, 2008 - 5:17 pm 89. 2x4:

John, “maskirovka”.

Aug 22, 2008 - 5:17 pm 90. fedya:

@Mike Sylwester:
Sir, if you can cite Wikipedia, you can most certainly follow links at the end of dozens of Caucasus-related articles on Wikipedia. You, therefore, have no need of a set of citations from me.

If you seriously propose to locate the “Ossetians” in Europe prior to, say 900AD, well, I have a lovely bridge, only slightly used, said to have been given as a gift to America by Über-Czar Nikki-poo himself, and it’s for sale…

Aug 22, 2008 - 5:57 pm 91. fedya:

@whiskey:
Very interesting contrast between East-Euro’s adopting a “trip wire” collaboration with us (USA) or choosing to independently rearm. I think “Nukin’ Czar Putin” is making the second option appear awfully risky, unless we give them enough cover to get away with it.
Enough cover” presupposes an American (USA) committment which must presume a non-proliferation commitment by our protectees in return.

At least, so one might expect in a semi-rational world.

As far as the Euro Far West being utterly hapless goof-balls (or is that goofs without?), well, that is the real news out of Afghanistan, as seen in the hot retorts by a US commander cited in that article. NATO is simply no longer even remotely a military alliance. It is no economic or political cooperation sphere, either.

NATO is nothing. Worse than nothing, NATO is a falsehood.

Well, Lord Putie sees this and leaps. Georgia buys a few hours respite, Bush wakes up, NATO grunts quietly, and Putie has to pause. Why?

Well, then Poland gets the USA to give up the Patriots. How “destabilizing”. NATO farts quietly. Is this the official beginning of NATO’s effective dissolution?

I, for one, hope so, if only because gouty old John Bull might yet awaken at 15 seconds before midnight, and hustle his weary bones the h*** out of the EU.

Then an Anglospherian Alliance could be free to support the East-Euro’s, the Black Sea States, and a Caspian-Central Asian Trade Consortium.

As for the Frenchies, their Belgian mothers and the Sauer Krauts, well, let them try Islamic welfare, if they can get it. We should keep a few applications on hand or our brand of welfare, too…just in case.

Aug 22, 2008 - 6:16 pm 92. Aristide:

Reading about Georgia and the Ossets is akin to that old saw about watching the making of sausages.

The Ossets are Iranian, no they’re Turkish.

They were forced out of Anatolia in the 10th century by the Turks.

They were forced from the Don river area in the 1200s by the Mongols or was that the Turks.

They were relocated to North Ossetia by the Georgians in the 1400s.

But, they were in control of Gori in the early 1300s.
A three way struggle for the Georgian crown ended with the faction supported by the Mongols victorious. The new Georgian King then lead a three year against the Ossets at Gori.

After some time after liberation of Gori on the mount Lomisi there was encounters between citizens of Tskhradzma and mountaineers of Aragvi.

The goal of the battles was to submit the mountaineers under the rule of Tskhradzma eristavi, but in spite of defeat, the Aragvian mountaineers kept the independence.

Deja vu all over again?

Aug 22, 2008 - 6:33 pm 93. Doug:

ThreatsWatch.Org – US Ambassador Calls Russian Response ‘Legitimate’

This is simply difficult to fathom and is an embarrassment to the State Department’s foreign service and diplomatic corps. Or rather, it should be. To many, perhaps it is not.

While nuance is overrated, there is a distinct difference between diplomatic nuance and event revisionism.

For starters, here’s hoping the US Department of Treasury is monitoring the bank accounts of South Ossetia’s ‘president’ Eduard Kokoity for any recent or near-future – shall we say – “transaction anomalies. ”
It takes a lot of money to start a war. To my knowledge, South Ossetia’s entire provincial economy is somewhere south of that of Ford County, Illinois. And regional strongmen never skim for their own pockets. Never.

Just a hunch.
—
Check the accounts please, Treasury. Inquiring minds want to know.

—
Meanwhile, at CNN
Below is original story quoting the ambassador.
Current (longer) CNN article leaves him out!

Here is a screenshot of Google search with partial quote cited:
CNN-Cleanup

- Russia We’ve completed pullback –

“The U.S. ambassador to Russia, John Beyrle, told the Russian business daily Kommersant it had urged Georgia not to launch an attack and that Russia responded in a “legitimate” way, though he went on to say Russia went too far in its military incursion.

His comments represent a public acknowledgment from a senior U.S. official that Russia had some justification for its initial response to Georgia’s attack on South Ossetia.“
—
John Bolton shakes his head in dismay.

Aug 22, 2008 - 6:34 pm 94. Aristide:

Now we know where the Russians were going…

Things To See On Your Holidays To South Ossetia

Aug 22, 2008 - 6:46 pm 95. supercargo:

Sorry, Pollyannas, the website operators know that hot issues cool down. Thus, nobody is peeing their pants over a little intemperance. People who would make us suffer the pretense of believing they are open-minded, bear the same fear of recognition of the own moral depravity, that a pedophile has in disclosure. Thus, the attached proof of Saint Saak’s fraud, cannot impact on your sieve protected brains. And, until the Dems indulge the GOP’s canonization of McCain, the Senator’s brazen contraventions of USC 50.15, will wait until the law is dropped on him. Saakashvili received secured data from the Senator, and perpetrated mass murder on his advise. So keep blowing smoke until the Mutt-Republicans are discredited and Reagan-Republicans assert. Obama won’t win the Presidential election; the mutts will lose it.
http://www.new.facebook.com/video/video.php?v=1019825981431&oid=22347223862

What is the big picture? Why has a large aspect of the American temper embraced coverup, whitewash, smear and evidence plant, to prop the Saakashvili-Cleansing Barrage?

It is “Boob Wars 2.” In 2004, with Camelot-rhetoric on Iraq in the toilet, and Americans being sniped, blown up, and ridiculed throughout Iraq, the public embraced another big deflection: someone had to pay for the exposure of Janet Jackson’s half breast at the Superbowl. America’s moral identity suffered taint, and the backwoods’ majority of the US Congress felt the need to impose $750,000 fines for half-boob exposure, etc. “Moral leadership” was the catchword. Legislator atrocities inflicted in the disgraceful episode had nothing to do with an accidental exposure of a boob. It had everything to do with American perceptions of what moral-leadership constitutes. After said legislation polluted the lawbooks, Americans continued to die in Iraq, but now their deaths no longer meant that Bush lied to concoct a causa belli for that fiduciary service to Iran’s Ayatollahs, the were led to the slaughter because ersatz moral-leadership framed a faux vindication of command idiocies that forced America’s finest to take IED hits with near impunity.

Watch the Poles be first to jump out of the ABM sandbox. Watch America’s understand that it was intentional over-heating of the economy, by their moral-leader, that made their families suffer the worst of the recession. Watch suffering Americans despise their moral-leader who handed Iraq to Iran. If the truth hurts, then call the truth deceit.

On ad hominen abridgment, posing as refutation here, the late comedian Andy Kaufman had a routine where a simple-minded goof would rejoin an argument with this non sequitor: “You are so stupid, because you are so stupid, and that’s why you are so stupid.” That makes sense to the worst of the Boob War goofs who pollute this blog. Within 7 days they will be reduced to a couple of rhetoric-robots, as common sense asserts, until Boob-War 3. Their parents raised cowards.

Aug 22, 2008 - 6:55 pm 96. buddy larsen:

i think this is supercargone’s nut graf:

“Saakashvili received secured data from the Senator, and perpetrated mass murder on his advise”

The rest is just him being charming. Interpretation? Well, could be, “Obama will withhold intelligence from friends of the USA”.

Aug 22, 2008 - 7:30 pm 97. .:

Good grief. Supercargo, you are the Jackson Pollock of insult posts. Placing Janet Jackson, Andy Kaufman, and Iraq in the same post takes some talent. Now if you could just control that whole paranoid flight of ideas thing. Pollock addressed his by drinking heavily, have you ever considered taking this up?

Aug 22, 2008 - 7:46 pm 98. 2x4:

Soo, cargo here caught McCain red handed sending secured data to Saakashvili, and by some miracle, he knose what was the content of the said secured data.

Then Saakasvili perpetrated mass murder, 1400, no 2000, no 2600 or whatever was the declared number of genocidely murderlized Ossetins, err, Russians, whoever they were according their declared citizenship in their respective passport.

Do I get that right?

He forgotten that the orders came from the CFR section of NWO and that Hanoi Hilton was actually a venue for initiations of new Illuminati cadres. No pain no gain, or somesuch.

Aug 22, 2008 - 7:47 pm 99. buddy larsen:

oh, man, not the illuminati! they were ’spose to do something about the potholes AGES ago. have they? well, call me front-end-aligned –NOT!

Aug 22, 2008 - 8:18 pm 100. fedya:

@Aristide:
From the same article:
battle in Karchokhi on the river Ksani (August-September 1625). The Georgians, having used Mongol battle rules, had almost completely slaughtered 12,000 Persian army.

Sheesh, and I thought Antietam was something!

Aug 22, 2008 - 8:23 pm 101. Badanov:

Some Commie is attacking Rantburg. I (call me Chris) post there and I am proud to associate with the learned ex-military/intel personnel who join me there in support of the President. We know something about Russia because many of us are either re-enactors or we play video games dealing with war scenarios with Russia. Further, one agent studied with Condi Rice and they learned Russian together. That research and spin-off from learning from decades of my co-operatives’ studied production of intelligence estimates, has given me some field expertise that I use in my Data Services company (Procyon, Oklahoma City). Check out this extremely accurate re-enactment:
http://www.flwgc.org/pics/rkkamaj-pex.jpg

However, I don’t need a fire-zone alter-ego to be hard as nails. I am a Master at Wing Kung Fu. If you don’t like my credentials or Rantburg, tell me about it face to face or contact me here for some tete a tete: badanov@hard-log.com

Aug 22, 2008 - 8:36 pm 102. Teresita:

Buddy Larsen: Good grief. Supercargo, you are the Jackson Pollock of insult posts. Placing Janet Jackson, Andy Kaufman, and Iraq in the same post takes some talent.

And I thought I was pegged as the Belmont Club Troll. Supercargo makes me look like a piker. Standard rules apply. You don’t leave your food cache unlocked for the bears, and you don’t feed the trolls.

Aug 22, 2008 - 9:00 pm 103. 2x4:

Teresita, s.cargo eats you for lunch! There can be only one!

Aug 22, 2008 - 9:07 pm 104. 2x4:

Seriously, for a while it look interesting from a clinical perspective, but now, it is boring and annoying at the same time.

Am with ya, Teresita, re: feeding, or rather a lack of it thereof.

Aug 22, 2008 - 9:13 pm 105. Aristide:

Satellite Damage Assessment for Tskhinvali, South Ossetia, Georgia

“This map [at link] presents a satellite-based damage assessment for the city of Tskhinvali, South Ossetia, Georgia following the armed conflict between Georgian and Russian military forces in August 2008. Damaged buildings have been identified with WorldView-1 and Formosat-2 satellite imagery acquired on 19 August 2008 at a spatial resolution of 50cm and 2m respectively. An estimated total of 438 buildings within the mapped extent of Tskhinvali have been classified either as destroyed or severely damaged. An important preliminary finding of this satellite damage analysis is the observed heavy concentration of building damages within clearly defined residential areas. Please note, this is an initial damage assessment and has not yet been independently validated on the ground.

Don’t know if there are similar shots for Gori or other points of interest.

Aug 22, 2008 - 9:19 pm 106. fedya:

Hey, Pollack got boring awful quick, too.

Добрии Guys & Gals, does anyone have names & contacts for exporters/importers of Georgian wine? Wholesalers would be best; retailers useful, too.

Apparently there was a Swiss government group, SIPPO, helping them develop supply to the Euro market. There has also been a lot of counterfeiting and the Georgian government has cracked down on it though questions remain about whether counterfeiting has been completely stopped.

Aug 22, 2008 - 9:33 pm 107. Teresita:

Satellite Damage Assessment for Tskhinvali, South Ossetia, Georgia

Who was the analyst? The Beeb says, “Russia has issued new, reduced casualty figures for the Georgian conflict, with 133 civilians now listed as dead in the disputed region of South Ossetia. The figure is far lower than the 1,600 people Russia initially said had died. So if about 400 buildings were destroyed, but only about 100 people died, that means about every four buildings had a guy in it who was flattened.

Aug 22, 2008 - 9:40 pm 108. Mike Sylwester:

NahnCee:
“Boy, you must be a hell of a parent.”
———

I’ve been too busy being an FSB agent to spend much time on my parenting skills.

Aug 22, 2008 - 9:50 pm 109. buddy larsen:

Teresita, twarn’t I who posted pollock remark –looks like .: wrote it –

That does seem a low casualty figure for that many occupied buildings under surprise attack –

Aug 22, 2008 - 9:53 pm 110. Joseph Somsel:

How long for Poland to produce their own nuclear weapons and the IRBMs to deliver them?

First they have to make the decision to proceed. That depends on US decisiveness. We need to step up and put them seriously under the umbrella – NATO won’t do. Do anyone think the Germans will invest in defense and be willing to die for Polish freedom? That would be a switch!

Once the Poles decide they have to look to their own freedom, a crash program of indigenous fissile material production, weapon design, and IRBM manufacturing could field a credible deterrent force in maybe 4 years.

Surprisingly, the Romanians have a big head start. They own several operating CANDU reactors that can be reprogrammed to crank out weapons-grade plutonium. In a year they could be making pits.

Aug 22, 2008 - 9:53 pm 111. Joseph Somsel:

BTW, ABMs work fine against MIRVed missile in the boost phase, before the reentry vehicles are released. But you have to be close to the launch sites.

Aug 22, 2008 - 9:54 pm 112. Konyok:

Thank you, Mark Maps!

That link to Jeffhead is terrific.

So, the USS McFaul should be approaching Poti just about now. She is joined by a Spanish Aegis destroyer, followed soon by a Coast Guard cutter, and Polish and German frigates.

Allowing for the Montreaux Convention 8 day warning of intention to enter the Dardanelles, that makes 7 days to get fitted out and underway.

This strongly suggests to me that the Russian flotilla that participated in the emergency action to stop Saakashvili’s “clean fields” (is that right supercargo?) worst genocide in European history was actually loaded, boilers on and ready to go when the first rocket landed on Tskhinvali.

Aug 22, 2008 - 9:55 pm 113. Aristide:

UNOSAT did the analysis per the data on the satellite page. The US State Department was the source for the satellite image.

Aug 22, 2008 - 9:55 pm 114. Mike Sylwester:

fedya:
“if you can cite Wikipedia, you can most certainly follow links at the end of dozens of Caucasus-related articles on Wikipedia. You, therefore, have no need of a set of citations from me.”
———

In other words, nobody here ever will find out from you what the source of information is for the dubious statements you posted about the history of Ossetians in Georgia (Aug 22, 2008 – 1:16 pm).

Aug 22, 2008 - 9:57 pm 115. Konyok:

Pan Sylwester,

You almost made me spill my glass of delicious Georgian wine. (My favorite, dry Saperavi … )

You’re pretty funny for an FSB guy

Aug 22, 2008 - 9:59 pm 116. 2x4:

Checked the imagery, or is it imaginary?
The markers should have been published as an overlay, because as it is, they completely obscures what is underneath. Also, a curious thing is that the Georgian localities display damage in a similar extent. Perhaps this is due to the date when image was taken, 19th. Would be far more interesting to see image from early morning of 8/8/08. Otherwise, I have to conclude that Russians were rather busy.

And correct, Teresita, the casualty figure and the damage assessment seem to be at odds.

Aug 22, 2008 - 10:00 pm 117. Mike Sylwester:

Teresita:
“So if about 400 buildings were destroyed, but only about 100 people died, that means about every four buildings had a guy in it who was flattened.”
———–

Or else a lot more than 100 people died.

Thanks for the link, Aristide.

Aug 22, 2008 - 10:05 pm 118. whiskey:

The Poles could cooperate with the Romanians. Possibly also with the Hungarians, Czechs, a few others, to pool resources and get it done quicker. Thought they’d have to share. Which might have a set of advantages in survival of a distributed arsenal.

But Joseph Somsel, I think the Poles could cut the time to 3 years at least, if they poured every resource into the effort. They still have a lot of technical people, and they could buy assistance from North Korea and possibly China (discreetly of course).

Aug 22, 2008 - 10:09 pm 119. Konyok:

The disparity of casualties to the number of buildings destroyed would be significant it the event were instaneous.

People have a tendency to seek shelter when bad things happen.

What is the ratio of deaths to mobile homes destroyed in a respectable tornado?

Aug 22, 2008 - 10:10 pm 120. 2x4:

Mike,the 133 figure was released by Russian government as a final figure. I would assume that they would be more likely to fudge it up than decrease the count. Do you emember that the accusations of genocide and 2000 dead were cited as a decisive factor for the military action?

But apparently, that number wouldn’t hold under a scrutiny, so after the whole thing is almost over, they get their figure suddenly “right”.

I think that whoever did the damage assessment may have been biased by the earlier figure and used it as a guide for the damage markup.

Aug 22, 2008 - 10:12 pm 121. 2x4:

Another thing. When the Georgian negotiator got to Tskhinvali the evening before the Georgian assault, he said that he noticed that the town was virtually empty. No people in streets, almost like a ghost town. He did not pay attention to it first, but after the negotiator from the other side called that they have a flat tire and that even their spare is flat too so they can get to Tskhinvali for a while, he realized that they have no intention for the negotiations to proceed and the whole thing started to look like some kind of a setup. He left shortly after the call for Tbilisi.

Aug 22, 2008 - 10:25 pm 122. 2x4:

Third. A map before and after comparison. Without that, the assessment is rather of a dubious quality. May look peachy to a journo, though.

Aug 22, 2008 - 10:31 pm 123. fedya:

BUY GEORGIAN WINE!

Remember that counterfeiting of the better Georgian wines *was* extremely commonplace (especially Kindzmarauli), inside Georgia included. After wake-up calls courtesy of the Euros, the Georgian government has cracked down very sharply on this but no one seems to be willing to say that labels out of Georgia are 100% likely to be legit. caveat emptor

This looks like a very legitimate company:
TELAVI WINE CELLAR
http://www.tewincel.com/inglese/contatti.htm
Kurdgelauri
2200 Telavi
Georgia (GE)
Tel.: +995 350 50 555
Tel.: +995 350 73 707
Fax: +995 350 50 055
e-mail: tewincel@tewincel.com

Official Distributor in Georgia:
Telavi Cellar LTD.
Marshal Gelovani Ave., 2
0159 Tbilisi, Georgia.

Tel: (995 32) 98-52-96
Fax: (995 32) 98-52-96
E-mail: marani@tewincel.com

This is apparently their N.Amcn Rep:

GEORGIAN WINE IMPORTS
1079 Arbor Ln.
San Marcos, CA 92069
(858) 442-6532
Sales & Distribution:
Sales@GeorgianVino.com
Omani Mikaberidze
Omani@GeorgianVino.com
Tony Catalano:
TonyC@GeorgianVino.com
Damian Willis:
DamianW@GeorgianVino.com

Aug 22, 2008 - 11:03 pm 124. buddy larsen:

The point is, Mike, there exists two categories of causation: ”proximate” and ”underlying”. Which are you trying to discuss?

Aug 22, 2008 - 11:07 pm 125. fedya:

@DrJ:
Please note my previous post regarding Georgian wine imports.

Aug 22, 2008 - 11:08 pm 126. alan:

“Satellite Damage Assessment for Tskhinvali, South Ossetia, Georgia”

The heaviest concetration of destroyed buildings in the UNOSAT image are in Tamarasheni which was controlled by Georgian forces before the recent conflict started,
http://forum.pravda.com.ua/read.php?2,203072164
(in Cyrillic the name looks like TAMAPAWEHN) most of the damage there would have been done by the Russian forces driving out the Georgians..

Aug 22, 2008 - 11:56 pm 127. Whitehall:

Whiskey,

Granted it could be done in 3 years but every step would have to go right the first time.

Aug 23, 2008 - 8:30 am 128. buddy larsen:

early reports included Georgian units being blasted out of Tskshinvali. Anyone could look it up.

Aug 23, 2008 - 8:43 am 129. buddy larsen:

Whitehall is right –getting from here to there implies no Bear counter –looks to be a poor probability, sans new allied armored divisions by the dozens first.

Aug 23, 2008 - 8:48 am 130. buddy larsen:

i’m afraid we’re seeing –re the Rus 10-1 advantage in tac nukes –a “stolen march”. The evidence is “Georgia”. The only counter to tactical imbalance is a forward-leaning strategic force, AKA USA’s nuclear umbrella. So we’re back at square one, alas –and stupidly unnecessarily.

at least, after an all-out exchange, the world could finally rebuild without the Kremlin sinkhole of human progress, as the tribe from the Volga will be scattered by infuriated neighbors, which won’t happen in north America. So China would win the planet. Suits me, if it has to be –beats the hell out of living under the malignant psychotics in the kremlin who would have caused it all –and just think what great shape we’ll stay in, pulling them rickshaws!

Aug 23, 2008 - 9:16 am 131. 2x4:

Buddy, I think you are seeing it in too dark contours. Putin is not MAD insane–just a thug with a lot of power– and can be neutralized by smart counter moves. His tactic at the moment is to go for low lying fruit and to test boundaries, conceptual and real.

I am waiting for the next move to see whether the chess board I started drawing for his strategic goals is on the right track.

Aug 23, 2008 - 10:19 am 132. buddy larsen:

2×4, right –i tend to hyperbolize –i guess i want to see what could be in the darkest corners –the margins of the olde maps used to offer “Here there be Dragons” –better take a look, they may be coming on! Also, it’s probably good to visualize the “go ahead, you sonuvabitch, draw!” moment. Remember the cold war phrase “thinking the unthinkable?” Think about that phrase –it really means, “if someone can think it, it ain’t unthinkable”.

Aug 23, 2008 - 1:03 pm 133. buddy larsen:

It’s like if you answered a knock at the door, and it was a Tyrannosaurus Rex –you better have thought about the possibility beforehand or the shock’d kill ya –

Aug 23, 2008 - 1:30 pm 134. 2x4:

Buddy, of course, any possibility has to be taken into account.

Well, I hoped that despite Putin is not MAD-insane, he may not be mad, just a thug.

Unfortunately, your T-rex analogy has to be now moved into a forefront.

As I speculated a few days ago, along similar lines…of dark contours, Iran will be getting either nukes or a big boost to make them.
http://www.focus-fen.net/?id=n150285

Aug 23, 2008 - 1:50 pm 135. 2x4:

A sort of a mild karmic payback:
http://www.russiatoday.com/news/news/29403

Aug 23, 2008 - 2:41 pm 136. fedya:

So far this is a huge win for Über-Czar Putie, so far.

1) NATO has been exposed as a whinging bunch of hapless Belgians… a strategic boat anchor on the USA and our trans-global sea-based power.

2) Iran has been given a free hand now that we are effectively over-extended strategically.

3) The cornerstone of a global free-trade alliance against Russia-Persia domination of Central Asia is Turkey, and Turkey has to seriusly consider a Persian alliance to liquidate trans-Kurdistan as opposed to “standing” against both Russia AND Iran AND the Kurds alongside our limp-wristed NATO wanker “friends”.

Duh. No brainer, right? We may be stupid enough to stand with NATO, but the Turks aren’t anywhere near that stupid, right?

On the other hand, if Turkey hesitates to cross over, AND if the “global, sea-borne, free-trade” alliance uses Turkey’s hesitation to turn into a blood-drain for Russia while simultaneously reinforcing the East Euros and Turkey with anti-air/ anti-missile/ anti-armour hardware accompanied with ANZUS military advisors…

…then what good are Russia’s tactical nukes? One tactical on our guys = our MAD response, right?

It has worked against Russia for an awfully long time. The Far-Western Euro-weenies will be pissing in their Pampers, roundly cursing Cowboy America, and cravenly begging Russia for a trans-Baltic pipeline that bypasses Lithuania and Poland.

Not a likely scenario, but a hopeful one. No matter, latest news reports do inform us:
NATO is still dead!

Aug 23, 2008 - 3:02 pm 137. fedya:

should read:
AND if the “global, sea-borne, free-trade” alliance uses Turkey’s hesitation to allow our military aid to Georgia [and a Black Sea free fly zone extended over the Lesser Caucasus to Azerbaijan] to become a blood-drain for Russia

Aug 23, 2008 - 3:12 pm 138. fedya:

This just in…
NATO is still dead.

Aug 23, 2008 - 3:14 pm 139. 2x4:

NATO is still dead

Utterly? No resurrection possible?

I know, I don’t expect brass balls, but at least belgian chocolate ones…even tiny balls?

Okay then. Whatever it would be called–Central/Eastern Europe + US. Polska, Česká republika, Slovensko, Magyarország, România, България, Eesti, Lietuva, Latvija, Україна, საქართველო… maybe Slovenija.

Aug 23, 2008 - 3:55 pm 140. RAH:

US Navy McFaul should have arrive today.This is an Aegis missile destroyer, The Spanish ship is also an Aegis Missile destroyer according to Jeff Head.
http://www.jeffhead.com/georgia/20-24.htm

Now when they start to unload do you think the will just push through the Russian stakeout?. The Russian forces are a trifle and only meant as a symbolic refusal.

Aug 23, 2008 - 3:59 pm 141. buddy larsen:

I read the focus-fen, then galloped off to find a link to a Saudi columnist who a few days ago called for a strike on Iran now before it’s too late. Couldn’t find it, tho in the searching i found plenty more to stand my hair on end. more later.

Aug 23, 2008 - 4:06 pm 142. 2x4:

Russkis shuldn’t be there in Poti, period. If they cause trouble, blast’em!

Ok, maybe not but tell them to clear Poti without delay. Or else (what that may be, must be something doable). Ya, and those hummers, we want them back!

Aug 23, 2008 - 4:08 pm 143. 2x4:

Buddy, an Egyptian columnist was saying more or less the same a week ago.

Yea, Soddies are rather keen in that regard, not just columnists, and saying that six-pointed light-blue stars on a silvery background are often near impossible to spot.

Had a look at the ME map, lately?

Aug 23, 2008 - 4:55 pm 144. buddy larsen:

right –it’s time to refresh. i like that new situation, where that six pointed star is hard to see when the light is finally bright enough.

Aug 23, 2008 - 5:57 pm 145. fedya:

@2×4:
those hummers, we want them back!
Maybe they’ll exchange them for Prius’s?

@2×4:
I don’t expect brass balls, but at least belgian chocolate ones
Hmmmm, good point. M&M’s wouldn’t do, too American. Or, hey, how about this (depressing) variation:
NATO IS STILL (UN)DEAD!

@RAH:
Now when they start to unload
Actually, Aegis thingamajigs (sorry, boat floaters) ar more a forward position fire station kind of buggy, no? Just sitting there they effectively control the air for what, 50 miles around?

Hopefully we have–or will soon have–lots of commercial tubs unloading massive quantities of men [heck, and goilsz too], and materials in Batumi, just a few miles South of Poti [BTW, Russia's #2 naval station on the Black Sea, not so long ago]. With the Aegis thingies outside of Poti, we cover the first section of the rail route that then goes all the way through Gori and Tbilisi to Armenia and to Baku.

The thing to watch for now might be Russkies yielding at their checkpoints along that rail corridor. THAT would be a draw down (er, retreat?).

Aug 23, 2008 - 7:04 pm 146. 2x4:

Fedya, I know that Batumi is more likely, but wanted to have the opportunity to say “blast’em”, ya’ know?

Aug 23, 2008 - 7:12 pm 147. fedya:

Poti vs Batumi:
It mystifies me why most reports say the flotilloi are headed to Poti.

Is there a clear reason to think the non-US naval forces are headed to Georgia at all? Isn’t it more likely they are going to Constaza, Romania for pre-existing NATO execises?

Anyhoo, having a non-US NATO Aegis (Spain, Hola, amigos!), a Big Frigate (Bremen class, Germany) and a Littoral Warfare Frigate (FFG, Poland-go Sobieski) setting up shop in Constanza is really A Good Thing. One, I will have to EAT CROW and admit that NATO isn’t (totally) dead, yet (thank you, thank you). Two, it adds a strategic scale to forces shoring up Ukraine. (Please notice I did not say “The Ukraine”, though it really hurts not to.)

Watch for the Turks hosting overland communications from Batumi throughout the Lesser Causcasus. At that point I will repudiate all my whiney-assed hand-wringing and, uh, well maybe, sorta, start buying Belgian chocolate [balls]!

Aug 23, 2008 - 7:28 pm 148. fedya:

@2×4:
“blast’em”, ya’ know?
Yepper.

Aug 23, 2008 - 7:37 pm 149. fedya:

@2×4:
Polska, Česká republika, Slovensko, Magyarország, România, България, Eesti, Lietuva, Latvija, Україна, საქართველო… maybe Slovenija

Good Lord, what a beautiful string of shining pearls!

I’d wish for participation by Turkey, Albania, [we don't dare mention Kosovo], and Azerbaijan in our hoped-for Black Sea dream-team, leading ultimately to a trans-Turkic (with breaks) trade route from Gallipoli (”Gelibolu”) to Urumqi, and thence to WuWei, Lanzhow and X’ian.

You know, the Silk Road.

Aug 23, 2008 - 8:10 pm 150. buddy larsen:

Chindia would much prefer an open silk road that a soviet one, right? And if Albamia gets in, Mississippi ought to, too.

Aug 23, 2008 - 8:16 pm 151. fedya:

@buddy larsen:
if Albamia gets in, Mississippi ought to, too.
I grant your point, sir, but may we draw the line at Olbamia? If we were to admit Olbamia, what next? Hillaria?

Aug 23, 2008 - 8:29 pm 152. 2x4:

Sweet home Alabamia, buddy?

Fedya, Azerbaijan… How about Greater Azerbaijan? Maybe Kurds can get the Eastern Kurdistan, too. The southern Caspian shore – Turkmenistan. Persians will get as Fars it gets.

Aug 23, 2008 - 8:42 pm 153. buddy larsen:

Turk Kurds, also known as Turds, have been air dropped into local waterways

Aug 23, 2008 - 8:49 pm 154. fedya:

@2×4:
Now thet’z downraht fars-ical. Why…

Ooopsie! … according to Wikipedia (which is sometimes good for links, iff’n nuttin’ else), there’z a lot of them thar Azeri in Fars district, Iran. Hooo-weee! No wonder them Persioidz is so durned nervious:

The Azerbaijani language unifies Azeris and is mutually intelligible with Turkmen and Turkish (including the dialects spoken by the Iraqi Turkmen and by the Qashqai).

“Ossettians”? Thems war Farsicals, pushed into the mountains sometime 1100+…

Aug 23, 2008 - 9:04 pm 155. buddy larsen:

Iran is such a black hole of information –some have said for years now it’s on the verge of revolution against the mad mullahs, but –it just sits there, on the verge, year after year. One can’t savvy much –is the regime support broad but shallow? narrow but deep? Deep but shallow? broad but narrow?

Aug 23, 2008 - 9:11 pm 156. 2x4:

Nobuddy knose, buddy.

City folk is more modern and dislikes mullahs much, but rural folk is hopelessly lost in 12th century. Most of IRG/Basij are recruited from rural areas, to keep an eye on them uppity city folk.

One thing…60% of population is younger than 30. That demographic factor may one day rock the whole place. Actually probably very soon after certain structures are no more.

Aug 23, 2008 - 9:41 pm 157. fedya:

@buddy larsen:
–it just sits there, on the verge,

Well, not that I would advocate anything so terribly destabilizing, you know, BUT, if I were an Azeri revanchiste, I’d be calculating how easy it would be to hold a line:
1) from the point where the borders of Iraq, Turkey and Iran meet to
2) a line crossing the southern extreme of the Urmia salt lake,
3) up the mountain north of Bonab/Maragheh,
4) across the highland mountains south of Ardabil,
5) along the watershed to, what?,Ne’or Lake,
6) down to the Caspian south of Hatah Basrah.

Very defensible! Establishes direct land connection between main Azerbaijan and Nakhichevan. It doesn’t take in a majority of the Azeri population of Iran, just the heartland (Ardabil, Tabriz, Urmia Lake) Plus, perhaps that line runs north of the Kurdish-filled areas, leaving that headache to Iran, right?

This does not require any readjustment of Armenia’s present territory, a not-insignificant consideration.

Disclaimer: I’m not diss’ing Armenia or Kurdistan (or their legitimate aspirations), I’m just reviewing a relatively easy land grab for Azerbaijan should the Persians get whacked really hard. Like any land-grab, it should be defensible for a while, at least, and be based on national aspirations of a majority population. (So call me Wilsonian, I care not!)

Aug 23, 2008 - 9:55 pm 158. buddy larsen:

Looks like, unless the Martian Army steps in, there’s gonna be a fight, doesn’t it. oddly enough, the result likely won’t be any more an equitable distribution of oil & gas than there is right now, only the fight will be over, and thus behind us rather than in front of us.

Aug 23, 2008 - 10:08 pm 159. buddy larsen:

Ahmadinejad in new verbal attack on Israel

(but looky here at this midway-thru snip)

“Last month Vice President Esfandiar Rahim Mashaie triggered controversy and calls for his resignation when he said Iranians are “friends with Israelis.”

That’s pretty stunning, folks!

Aug 23, 2008 - 10:46 pm 160. fedya:

Well, we have to whack the Iranians, otherwise the proliferation problem means likely disaster for the entire globe.

The Russkies? Oy! They believe they must divvy up Central Asian gas and oil with the Persians to survive. Our problem is keeping them alive AND convincing them that free trade in gas and oil from Central Asia is really a better bet for their survival as a nation.

Anyone got a pitch for ‘em?

The only reasonable national interest goal for the USA is to create buffer zones between Russia and the Arabs that preserve maximum global free trade with Central Asia. We have no fundamental reason to defend trans-Caucasian nations or freedom of shipment for trans-Caspian polities other than the raw fact that we die if international trade is significantly curtailed.

That’s, you know, existential.

We are the successor global naval power to [formerly Great] Britain so we are now stuck with the inheritance of “Mahanism”, i.e. geopolitical theory based on the obvious truth that sea power has been controlling national destinies for a long time.

In competition [?] vs Mahanism, a very bright Fabian Socialist named Mackinder established a “heartland” theory of geopolitics. Mackinder famously described Britain as ‘a lump of coal surrounded by fish’.

To my amateur-in-geopolitics eyes, the fact of oil and gas in Central Asia has forced strategists to achieve a synthesis of Mahan’s sea power-centered theories with Mackinder’s Heartland theory. This requirement is upon us now, due to two things: 1) the exceptional efficiency of pipelines for transportation of oil and gas, and 2) containerization –a physical abstraction of shipping of goods– so that “by land” or “by sea” have little consequence apart from where something comes from, to where it is going, and the route in between…

Before we can convince Russia to take “the high road”, we will have to see her freed of her “siloviki” — i.e. what we call the Russian Mafia.

The situation is desperate and the outcome is by no means settled.

Aug 23, 2008 - 10:49 pm 161. prevail:

If US officials believed that the Russians had anything but limited objectives in Georgia, they would not have sent Condi Rice to Tblisi.

I am less concerned of Russian efforts to get to the bottom of the midnight – out of satellite reach – commencement of military action, than I am of the pathology of those who want factual abridgement of a war crime’ issue. In 1956 and 1968, Hungarian and Czekoslovack leaders wanted more that to salvage a Neo-Con flop. Coverups get uncovered.

Aug 23, 2008 - 11:07 pm 162. 2x4:

War crime? Any specific?

Hungarian and Czekoslovack [sic] leaders wanted more that to salvage a Neo-Con flop

That sentence does not make any sense. Care to elucidate?

Aug 23, 2008 - 11:32 pm 163. 2x4:

Specifics, that is…

Aug 23, 2008 - 11:42 pm 164. mark_b:

prevail:

If US officials believed that the Russians had anything but limited objectives in Georgia, they would not have sent Condi Rice to Tblisi.

—————————-

Please explain why Rice would not have been sent.

Your argument will he heard and discussed if you are rational and clear.

Put forth your proposition, defend it, link relevant information. You will get the same respect that you show others.

Invest some time. Read the blog.

Waste peoples time, you will be ignored.

Aug 23, 2008 - 11:53 pm 165. 2x4:

Well?

Aug 23, 2008 - 11:54 pm 166. 2x4:

Mark, it looks like another hit-n-run innuendo spiked with strawmen.

Aug 23, 2008 - 11:56 pm 167. buddy larsen:

That’s right, prevail –gotta have more than assertions to make conspiracies stick. I note on a nearby thread that “Columbian kleptocrats” have attracted your fine-honed ire. I do agree with that –the tuition is murder. However, once graduated, one can exit New York and journey to South America, to Colombia, and then, perhaps after spending a few weeks in-country (very pretty country, I vouch first-hand) learning how to spell its name, one could commence insulting –with at least the credibility that attaches to knowing how to spell it –Colombia’s hard struggle against the narcoterrorist killer/kidnappers of FARC.

Aug 24, 2008 - 12:09 am 168. buddy larsen:

One wonders if political persuasion could possibly be a hmm, er, ah, “cognitve function”.

Aug 24, 2008 - 12:12 am 169. 2x4:

Buddy, in some cases, it may be a “cognitive dysfunction”, eh?

Aug 24, 2008 - 1:39 am 170. buddy larsen:

yuk yuk –yep yep –

Aug 24, 2008 - 2:38 am 171. Ricardo:

Two weeks into this, and I think the Russians have achieved several objectives:
1- They now control Poti- I think this was the true objective from day one. It is the only area they remain in that’s outside the Sarkozy treaty loophole “safety zone”. It is also a port for the Baku pipeline.
2- The Americans have, as a Russian general said in the first few days of the crisis, “come to their senses”, and are now talking. That means concessions on either side. I bet anything the Russians will retreat to South Ossetia, thus allowing the Americans to feel like they got something done, but keep Poti.
3- Contol of the pipeline allows them to increase their oil derived “soft power”, and neutralizes whatever economic or political leverage the Central Asian states might have derived from oil traffic through the Baku pipeline.
I just heard the NATO ships headed to Poti had to dock south of Poti to avoid contact with Russian forces.
It looks to my untrained eye this more about Poti than South Ossetia.

Aug 24, 2008 - 6:36 am 172. 2x4:

Ricardo, one problem with that theory–the fork of the BTC pipeline terminates at Supsa, not in Poti.

Poti is, though, a major railroad terminal, beside being a port. The goal is, it seems, a disruption of Georgian economy now, after the main goal of shutting down the BTC pipeline or replacement of Georgian government with a puppet regime has not been achieved.

Russia will lose in the long run, when the final bill is tallied.

Aug 24, 2008 - 9:02 am 173. buddy larsen:

Ricardo, 2×4, breaking news late last night, a fuel train blows up on that rail line:

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article4599844.ece

Aug 24, 2008 - 10:03 am 174. buddy larsen:

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article4599844.ece

re: “Poti is, though, a major railroad terminal” –fuel train yesterday –hits mine, explodes –

Aug 24, 2008 - 10:05 am 175. 2x4:

Chechnya problems?
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-08/24/content_9683838.htm

Aug 24, 2008 - 11:14 am 176. Aristide:

German military attache found Russian response in Georgia ‘appropriate’

Sun, Aug 24 03:49 PM

Berlin, Aug 24 (DPA) The German military attache in Moscow described the Russian military response in Georgia as ‘appropriate’ in an internal document, according to a report in the Sunday edition of the German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ).

‘The extent of the use of military force by the Russian side appears – seen from here and despite reports to the contrary from Georgia and the picture conveyed by the media – not inappropriately high,’ Brigadier General Heinz G. Wagner wrote Aug 11.

According to the report, the general said some three days after the outbreak of hostilities that Russia had no choice but to react to the Georgian military action in South Ossetia.

The Russian peacekeeping forces stationed in the breakaway Georgian region ‘were not in a position, given their weapons and equipment, to defend themselves effectively or even to resist,’ the general wrote.

Russia had been compelled to ensure that the land forces of its 58th Army were able to move without being threatened by the Georgian Air Force, and for this reason Georgian planes had been prevented from intervening, Wagner wrote.

The Russians had moved to strengthen their peacekeepers, deployed under a mandate from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), to protect Russian citizens and to restore the status quo ante, the attache said.

‘The deployment of air power – despite the regrettable civilian casualties – can be seen as militarily appropriate to the operation,’ Wagner wrote, according to the FAZ report.

That was “three days after the outbreak of hostilities”, no word on what Brigadier General Heinz G. Wagner is saying these days.

Aug 24, 2008 - 12:17 pm 177. Doug:

U.S. Navy arrives in Georgia with aid

Aug 24, 2008 - 12:58 pm 178. buddy larsen:

No oil over the rail link, sez somebody

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article4599844.ece

Aug 24, 2008 - 2:10 pm 179. buddy larsen:

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article4599844.ece

Aug 24, 2008 - 2:12 pm 180. buddy larsen:

somebody blew up a fuel train on the rail line. can’t get the link to post –

Aug 24, 2008 - 2:19 pm 181. 2x4:

Prevail, can you make a reasonable argument without a loaded language? You can’t?
Yea, thought so.

Since your article talks about Armenians specifically (and then about minorities in general but without any specifics)… An interesting factoid: The minorities number in Armenia is decreasing every year as they migrate out of Armenia. “Hey, we love our minorities, but frankly, you’re better off leaving”.

Tell me, dear prevail, from about 20,000 Georgians living in the S Ossetia are before the present conflict, how many are still living there. Also, how many Georgians are still living in Abkhazia (originally 280,000 strong minority)?

Aug 24, 2008 - 2:26 pm 182. 2x4:

Buddy, yea. Some more Russian mines were found later along the way after a sweep.

Aug 24, 2008 - 2:29 pm 183. 2x4:

One correction, Georgians were a majority in Abkhazia before 1992.

Aug 24, 2008 - 2:41 pm 184. buddy larsen:

Pipelines, railroads, roads, can’t be protected against infiltrating raiders –unless the surrounding populations deny them access the targets. No surrounding population, or surrounding population allied with infiltrators, means no pipelines, railroads, or roads. i’ll bet already there;s no insurance avaible at anywhere near normal rates for anything in Georgia, or anything that trades with Georgia, using those three comm links.

All this Russian interest and concern over the various ethnics (all their hyping and instigation of violence among them) is suddenly becoming devilishly clear.

Aug 24, 2008 - 2:48 pm 185. 2x4:

Here, prevail, is you primer on Abkhazia war 1992-1993. Russian sources included in the article.

Tell me prevail, in the light of that, wouldn’t you be a tiny bit apprehensive and suspicious about minorities if you were in Georgian shoes?

Animals are animals (my apologies to members of non-human fyla), but what is truly reprehensible is the part Russians played in the whole affair.

Aug 24, 2008 - 3:04 pm 186. buddy larsen:

”Cut the bluster. Rhetoric bombs are all you have” –well, let’s go to the threads and see who has nothing but bluster and rhetorical bombs.

But yes, there’s an oil war on, no shit, sherlock. NK buyout offends you? What, you prefer nuclear war? Pretty sure none of us know much about the poppy trade? Say it’s Bush –and add some numbers for cred. Don’t like how the cold war ended? Claim Star Wars was a flop. On and on –like wiping your ass with a wagon wheel, there’s no end to it.

Say, tell us about how Bush did 9/11, wouldja? And the USS Maine in Havana harbor –that too.

Aug 24, 2008 - 3:27 pm 187. buddy larsen:

And more about them Columbian Kleptocrats, too. Let me guess, journalism major with hefty student loan debt?

Aug 24, 2008 - 3:30 pm 188. buddy larsen:

Putin = doormat
McCain = God-King of Known Universe
prevail = thrice used asswipe

Aug 24, 2008 - 3:32 pm 189. fedya:

@Larcenousity:
All this Russian interest and concern over the various ethnics (all their hyping and instigation of violence among them) is suddenly becoming devilishly clear.

Yes. And with all these big boys and little guys, a big picture emerges. Does it compare with the idea of a “cold war” with all those little clients and proxies running around murdering millions?

In a “Cold” war the primary belligerents never engage each other with direct fire; if a Big Bugger Belligerent gets shot at, it’s always from a proxy for the other side. That, so goes the theory, short cuts escalations which could quickly become a “Hot” War, i.e. thermonuclear hotte — whew! and that’s MAD hot, baby!

So, if it’s our own forces on the scene, can they afford to go eyeball to eyeball with the Russkies? I’d say no. Can our SOF’s sabotage the Roki tunnel? I’d say no. Can our Aegis tubs or Patriot batteries clear the skies over Abkhazia or South “Ossettia”? Again, I’d say not if we are smarter than your average rock.

On the other hand, can our guys clear the skies over the rail heads at Zugdidi, Poti, Batumi and from there up and through to the Armenian and Azerbaijani borders? I’d suggest, yes, and we’d better do it with alacrity and with clarity, too. If we don’t impose a free fly zone for all non-Russian-allied aircraft over free Georgia [exclusive of Abkhazia and South "Ossettia"], then Georgia will remain broken, subject to incursions, and terribly harassed.

If we do impose a free fly zone for all but Russian-allied aircraft over free Georgia, then Georgia herself will be capable of handling provocations by Russians masquerading as “minorities” and will be able to make her own incursions into those areas should she think she can get away with it. Bleed Ivan to death, you know?

Here’s the thing. It is actually a good thing to have to put US (live) and NATO (undead) forces at the ports and flash points of Georgia. They become tripwires, a new Fulda Gap or Checkpoint Charlie, as it were.

That is actually a greater deterrent to interdiction of trans-Caucasus trade than we’d have if Les Russes were to withdraw entirely but hang around just over the border without our guys continually on the ground in Georgia. Therefore, a permanent military mission to Georgia is the only way to return the trans-Caucasus to stability.

By that scenario, Ivan has bought himself Abkhazia by virtue of earlier ethnic cleansings, but he has also bought himself a thorough bloodletting to come in South “Ossettia” as well as a permanent stop sign just North-West of the Enguri River (Zugdidi).

…if–that is–we guarantee Georgian air space with our missile units on the ground and on US-NATO ships berthing in Batumi.

At some point very soon, if they tarry, Russian check point operators anywhere in free Georgian territory (i.e. not Abkhazia or South “Ossettia”) will have to be forced to withdraw, which Georgia will do with gusto once we’ve taken control of the air.

If all those “Cossack” volunteers are still looking for action, perhaps they could move to Siberia and beat up the natives, or to Moscow, and beat up everybody including themselves.

Russians are a decent people ruled, however, by their own worst elements. Someday I believe the Russian people will put the soloviki, and Putin, etc. in a jar where they belong. Until then…

Aug 24, 2008 - 3:49 pm 190. buddy larsen:

and YOU’re an apologist for 100,000,000 murders commited by 20th century despots, prevail. And i use my real name –does your family call you ‘prevail’? who has an identity crisis? and who do you think you’re fooling, with your human rights hysteria –you give a shit about victimized people? don’t make me laugh. totalitarians just use that for cover –you know it, i know it, you know i know it, i know you know i…uhhh well anyway.

Aug 24, 2008 - 3:51 pm 191. 2x4:

Prevail, I asked you once about what oyu call the massacre on august 7. You did not reply, no figures, no supporting evidence (Russian propaganda claims do not constitute evidence).

All you do is ad hominem, invectives, innuendo. If your goal was to present you argument, you’ve failed miserably, the methods you use will win you no friends. That is all I have to say and I’ll no longer wish to communicate with you in any form and fashion and ask for the same from your side. Thank you.

Aug 24, 2008 - 3:53 pm 192. buddy larsen:

2×4, you can’t shame a kremlin boot-licker who has the unmitigated gall to accuse others of atrocities –as if atrocities haven’t been the kremlin’s daily lunch special ever since they shot the Romanov children to pieces in 1917.

Aug 24, 2008 - 4:03 pm 193. 2x4:

I know, buddy. If it was a normal human being, he could be salvageable. I had a contact with several Russians throughout the conflict, and some of them are starting to admit that they’ve been lied to by Kremlin propaganda machine. They tend to still blame Georgians somewhat, but find enough strength to see disconcerting threads on Russian side. Regular people will get it, eventually. Boot-lickers, and paradoxically especially those living in the west, no.

Aug 24, 2008 - 5:52 pm 194. Ricardo:

2×4, thanx for the correction. NATO did land at Batumi.
So Supsa is stradled now by Poti (Russian occupied) in the North and Batumi (NATO vessels) in the south.
I am happy about that.
Despite the railway mining, I think Russia will find it harder to sabotage in the coming days.
I still think the whole excercise was an attempt to control or disrupt oil transport through Georgia, but am more hopeful about the outcome.

Aug 24, 2008 - 8:14 pm 195. M. Simon:

and YOU’re an apologist for 100,000,000 murders commited by 20th century despots, prevail. And i use my real name –does your family call you ‘prevail’? who has an identity crisis? and who do you think you’re fooling, with your human rights hysteria –you give a shit about victimized people? don’t make me laugh. totalitarians just use that for cover –you know it, i know it, you know i know it, i know you know i…uhhh well anyway.

Good one Buddy.

Aug 24, 2008 - 9:33 pm 196. M. Simon:

If US officials believed that the Russians had anything but limited objectives in Georgia, they would not have sent Condi Rice to Tblisi.

How right you are. America is now setting up a permanent military base in Georgia and there appears to be a major American Naval contingent in the Black Sea.

Evidently we are concerned that the Russians do not seem to be doing a good job keeping the peace. One thing you can be sure of. Americans will not be looting toilets and toothbrushes.

Aug 24, 2008 - 9:52 pm 197. buddy larsen:

Thanks, M –i don’t usually fly off the handle like that –but you can see what the reason was –i don’t understand these guys –there’s room for discussion in these threads –but just calling people idiots and their countries doomed ain’t nuthin but some fool vomiting. it’s gonna be fun watching the Rus/China pipeline joint venture –little does he know that once the infrast is in, 1.5 billion Chinese are gonna NEED better prices from 1.5 million Russians –and when Russia starts screaming to Europe & America to come help fellow westerners against the new Mongol Invasion, there won’t be anyone among the legions they have abused who will care to listen. It’ll be “Sorry –no soap, Ivan –your turn –invaders get invaded –enjoy the gulag!”

Aug 24, 2008 - 11:01 pm 198. Juliio McCain:

“Richard Fernandez”? To these redneck, toothless gringos you are Ricci the Spic. To we of “La Raza” you are: “Puro Indio.” When I see a face like yours, it is usually behind a box of tomatos.

You can take the indio out of the frijoles, but you can’t take the frijoles out of indio

Shop eating white mierda. These rednecks want Raz-falsos like you, mowing their lawns and picking up their dog shit, estupido.

Go Obama! A Nation Awaits Your Healing Touch

Aug 25, 2008 - 2:29 am 199. mark_b:

Juliio:

You are why we don’t have a draft.

Aug 25, 2008 - 3:42 am 200. buddy larsen:

mark_b

Ouch! (that is, if he gets it)

Aug 25, 2008 - 6:03 am 201. mark_b:

He is also why we have a military.

To defend those who cannot defend themselves.

Aug 25, 2008 - 7:24 am 202. Ricardo:

Err…Julio, Richard is Filipino. That makes you what, Raza-macho or flaming cretin?
Unlike you, I use my real name. Unlike you, I use my brain, and when proven wrong on a fact, I readily admit it.
Why don’t you disabuse the red-necks in this group of the notion that you are not only ignorant, but totally clueless about geography, history or even your own roots, and apologize for not knowing the difference between “puro indios” and Filipinos.
Mano, I can really understand why you’d be ashamed to use your name.

Aug 25, 2008 - 7:40 am 203. Julio McCain:

That ugly mug is pure indio. I don’t give a crap what that mierda eater says, he is rat eating indio from mexico.

hollywood actors had to hide jewish backgrounds. Tony Curtis is a name change

The dude is a fraud. Belmont Club? So gringo

TEJAS, NEUVA MEXICO, ARIZONA, CALIFORNIA SON NUESTROS. SEE YA GRINGO PERROS!!!!!!!!

Aug 25, 2008 - 2:24 pm 204. buddy larsen:

McCain, wretchard earned himself a ivy League education. Belmont comes from his college neighborhood. but I’m sure downward mobility was available to him. He just didn’t choose it and you did. Que lastima para ti! y por favore digame jefe, por que hanging out on the street smokin dat brainwash makes you real and him not?

Aug 26, 2008 - 5:58 pm 205. Aristide:

Georgia: US sends warship to disputed port

A US embassy spokesman in Tibilisi said that the USS McFaull had left the southern port of Batumi to unload cargo at Poti, a handling point for commercial cargoes that Russian troops have occupied for more than a week. Russia has reserved the right to inspect cargoes at the port, raising the prospect of its military challenging the US operation to transfer the supplies of water, food and nappies to Georgian soil.

More at link.

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Mar 25, 2009 - 3:48 pm

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