291 Comments

1. Wadeusaf:

poker time, all in?

Aug 24, 2008 - 4:02 pm 2. wretchard:

More like drip, drip, drip. The Georgian incursion gave the US political cover to make an ABM deal with Poland, get access to Ukranian radar intelligence, and maybe get enhanced facilities inside the Black Sea. Since the Black Sea opens onto the Med, but it doesn’t link to Russian Northern, Pacific or Baltic Fleets NATO has the ability to surge vessels into it in a way that can’t be matched by the Russians. Of course, the Russians could use anti-ship airpower, but that would set off Armaggedon.

What I’d fear most from the Russian point of view is a request by Georgia to “demiltarize” ports it legally owns except for one or two under NATO control. Under International Law, the Western ports remain Georgian. Over time, the Georgians can diplomatically ensure that the Russian Army cannot be resupplied by sea. If the Russians send their convoys, the ports can be mined before their arrival by air with Georgian permission. This means the Georgians, via NATO can have command of the sea while the Russian Army must supply itself overland. That’s fine for now, with the weather good. But in the winter, things will be different, especially if they face a Georgian insurgency. And if the roads are closed or mined by Georgian guerillas, then logistically supplying the Russian occupation Army becomes harder yet.

So I don’t see a confrontation with Russia, rather a slow strangulation of its forces should they decide to stay. If they pull back into Russia, or even into Abkhazia or South Ossetia, I don’t see that NATO forces will do anything to discomfit them. As I said, Putin should cash in now, while the gettin’s good.

Aug 24, 2008 - 4:21 pm 3. Nomenklatura:

The Burke-class destroyer McFaul has an Aegis system on board, which means that Putin now has to look at both a lethal, deployed air defense system capable of defending much of western Georgia and a floating, active, self-contained ballistic missile defense system covering the entire Black Sea and the Caucasus. Plus, presumably Georgian political support for keeping both capabilities there indefinitely.

I don’t think those are things he wanted when he started this thing.

Aug 24, 2008 - 4:30 pm 4. Bill Bradley:

A few points.

1. Turkey is allowing humanitarian relief to pass.

2. The USN is going to another port.

3. The Moskva is not in the vicinity and headed somewhere else.

As a former USN guy.

Aug 24, 2008 - 4:30 pm 5. fedya:

@wretchard:
I just posted this on the horrifically old M.Totten thread but it seems to be more relevant to this topic, so I hope you don’t mind my substantially reposting it here.

One question I have is what is it ships like the Aegis tubs bring to the party? Air control, right? The other is what are the roles and rules of engagement for US forces on the ground going to be?

As to what Aegis and the frigates bring to the party, well, control of the air with missiles is one. Then, iff we start landing Patriots and SAM’s, aren’t we going to own whatever air we say we own? If so, the Russian troops dug in around Poti–all their “checkpoint” operators–are going to be feeling awfully bare naked, no matter how deep those trenches are.

But, other than promising to shoot down anything Russian-allied in the air over “free” Georgia (not Abkhazia or South “Ossettia”) do Americans on the ground have a value? Yes.

In a “Cold” war the primary belligerents never engage each other with direct fire; if a Big Bugger Belligerent gets shot at, it’s always from a proxy for the other side. That, so goes the theory, short cuts escalations which could quickly become a “Hot” War, i.e. thermonuclear hotte — whew! and that’s MAD hot, baby!

So, can our own forces on the scene afford to go eyeball to eyeball with the Russkies? I’d say no. Can our Special Operations Forces sabotage, e.g. the Roki tunnel? I’d say no. Can our Aegis tubs or Patriot batteries clear the skies over Abkhazia or South “Ossettia”? Again, I’d say not if we are smarter than your average rock.

On the other hand, can our guys clear the skies over the rail heads at Zugdidi, Poti, Batumi and from there up and through to the Armenian and Azerbaijani borders? I’d suggest, yes, and legally too. And we’d best do it with alacrity and clarity, too.

If we don’t impose a free fly zone for all non-Russian-allied aircraft or projectiles over free Georgia [exclusive of Abkhazia and South “Ossettia”], then Georgia will remain broken, subject to arbitrary incursions, and terribly harassed. The pipelines might languish underused. New pipelines remain unbuilt. And lots of wonderful Georgian wine will fail to make it to the American market.

If we do impose a free fly zone for all but Russian-allied aircraft over free Georgia, then Georgia herself will be capable of handling provocations by Russians masquerading as “minorities” and will be able to make her own incursions into those areas should she think she can get away with it. Bleed Ivan to death, you know?

Here’s the thing. It is actually a good “Peace-Now” thing to put US (live) and NATO (undead) forces at the ports and flash points of Georgia. They become tripwires, a new Fulda Gap or Checkpoint Charlie, as it were.

That is actually a greater deterrent to interdiction of trans-Caucasus trade than we’d have if Les Russes were to withdraw entirely but hang around just over the border without our guys continuously on the ground in Georgia. Therefore, a permanent military mission to Georgia is the only way to return the trans-Caucasus to stability.

By that scenario, Ivan has bought himself Abkhazia by virtue of earlier ethnic cleansings, but he has also bought himself a thorough bloodletting to come in South “Ossettia” as well as a permanent stop sign just North-West of the Enguri River (Zugdidi).

…if–that is–we guarantee Georgian air space first by US-NATO missile-armed ships berthed in Batumi. And soon after, by Patriot (anti SS-21) and SAM units on the ground along the rail all the way to Azerbaijan, and on side routes through Tkibuli, Sachkhere, Borzhomi, Mareuli, and Gurdzhani (keep that good wine flowing).

At some point very soon, if they tarry, Russian check point operators anywhere in free Georgian territory (i.e. not Abkhazia or South “Ossettia”) will have to be forced to withdraw, which Georgia will do with gusto once we’ve taken control of the air.

Aug 24, 2008 - 4:34 pm 6. Mike Sylwester:

Here is a very interesting website about the Georgia crisis.
http://ru.qartu.com/

You can toggle (click at top of page) between two versions — written in the English and Russian languages.

The information is very critical of Russia’s position and actions in the crisis. The easy availability of such information throughout Russia will gradually undermine Russia’s morale and impunity in this crisis.

Aug 24, 2008 - 4:34 pm 7. chriscross:

“…cruiser Moskva was reported damaged in combat by the Georgian navy…”. i would really like to read more about this. links, pictures anyone?

Aug 24, 2008 - 4:54 pm 8. Lifeofthemind:

In a couple of months Russian forces in Georgia will be lose the use of the tunnel and have to rely on the coastal railroad (vulnerable) and sea born transport. The Ukraine is going to increasingly obstruct use of Sevastapol leaving Russia only the inadequate port of Novorossiysk. The port of Batumi lies farther South than Poti in the district of Adjara along the Turkish border. Batumi is linked to both the rail line to Tblisi and the oil pipeline. That rail line was sabotoged yesterday and I expect to hear of more reciprical sabotage in Russia. The Russians would be very foolish if they tried to expand their forces even deeper into Georgia to forestall Nato forces. Nato Airpower can be based in Iraq, Bulgaria or Romania to control the Black Sea and establish an air bridge into Georgia even if the use of Incirlik is denied. The greatest threat to safe allied naval presence at the beginning of hostilities would come from what is left of the Russian submarine forces in the Black Sea. According to wiki that consists of two 30 year old diesel boats that may not be operational. Strategically the greatest land threat I see to the Georgian position is the Russian presence in Armenia. The Russians would be well advised to withdraw before the Winter and take anyone they issued a passport to with them.

Aug 24, 2008 - 4:58 pm 9. Terry Baker:

Man, I hope you guys know what you’re talking about.

Aug 24, 2008 - 4:58 pm 10. Mike Sylwester:

Wretchard:
” I don’t see a confrontation with Russia, rather a slow strangulation of its forces should they decide to stay. If they pull back into Russia, or even into Abkhazia or South Ossetia, I don’t see that NATO forces will do anything to discomfit them. ”
————-

Russia also will have to deal with The Law of Unintended Consequences.

It is my impression (I would like to find an expert opinion) that the 65,000 Ossetians who live in South Ossetia are by far the most radically nationalistic of the world’s 700,000 Ossetians.
(For numbers, see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ossetians)

If Russia does unite South and North Ossetia, then the result might be a radicalization of Russia’s 515,000 Ossetians, who have been quiescent in recent decades.

For the North Ossetians, a big complaint has been the unwelcome immigration of Russians, Ingush and other Causcasus nationalities into their area. The immigrants dilute the Ossetian character of their region.

The Russians have been turning a blind eye when Ossetians chase Georgians out of South Ossetia. The Russians will be much more upset when Ossetians likewise start chasing non-Ossetians out of North Ossetia.

North Ossetias have been taking matters into their own hands for several years. Here are excerpts from an article published by Pravda in 2004:
http://english.pravda.ru/accidents/21/96/383/14452_KKK.html

—–
… dozens of North Ossetians founded the “Ossetian Ku Klux Klan”. … locals decided to establish such an undercover organization to withstand authorities.

“We are not advocating racism; there are many Greeks, Russians and Ukrainians among us,” said the organization’s founder Alan. “We gave it a name of the Ku Klux Klan because we’ll have to be the clan of the invisible. We are absolutely not interested in establishing this revolutionary underground, but this is today’s reality. …. It is impossible to remain quiet any longer. The time has come to rid or nation of such bastards. One must decide which side he/she is on. Silence is evil.” ….

Members of the Ossetian KKK do not appear to be emotionally unstable. A majority of them possess a University degree. There are no public activists among them; neither one of them strives to become famous. These people can simply no longer stay in the shade. They want to be heard. …..
—–

The addition of radical Ossetians from South Ossetia into organizations like that in North Ossetia might cause Russia a lot of problems.

Aug 24, 2008 - 5:03 pm 11. bobal:

Surely the Russians have some snow plows.

Aug 24, 2008 - 5:03 pm 12. NahnCee:

Need to emphasize the nuclear sub floating around the same area too. Also named Dallas.

That’s not humanitarian relief, that’s not ‘harbor security’ – that is sheer belly-up-to-the-bar intimidation.

You want to play with the Big Boys, Ivan? You think *that* is a tank? That you can crush through peasant villages with? Well, *this* is our version of a sea-going tank … that we can crush through peasant Russian soldiers with.

And peasant ex-KGB agents.

And peasant Russian billionaires.

Aug 24, 2008 - 5:05 pm 13. wretchard:

I don’t think there’s any intent to engage the Russian forces in combat directly. Nobody is so foolish as to contemplate that. But there’s no denying that the US is moving a considerable piece of combat power into the Black Sea relative to the Russian Fleet. This is essentially still a signal, but it is a signal with backed with an underlying and very real naval power. Too often the Press has said that the US can do nothing about the Russians in Georgia. That’s not quite true as these movements show. And soon there will probably be accusations that the US, heretofore decried as impotent, is in fact being too potent or “provocative”.

Of course the thing can go too far. Cold War confrontations were the art of knowing how far you could go. But like Teddy Roosevelt once said, “speak softly and carry a big stick.”

Aug 24, 2008 - 5:33 pm 14. Mark Maps:

The other signal sent by these naval forces is that the Georgian pipelines will be commercially viable and the sea-lanes used to ship some of those petrolium products are now fully protected. Russia would be stupid to try to interdict anything coming out of Georgia on the Black Sea.

Putin’s been checked; whether he’s been checkmated remains to be seen, but I’ve got to give our guys marks for the way they’ve managed this crisis so far.

Aug 24, 2008 - 5:51 pm 15. John Samford:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2061604/posts

For what it’s worth;

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/August_2008_Russian-Georgian_naval_skirmish

Fog of war is still laying on the water. Agreed details are that 4 Georgian patrol craft engaged the Soviet, er…. Russian Black seas fleet.
One PC was sunk and another damaged. It was claimed a hit started a fire on the Russian cruiser. Russians say not, and since at night a missile launch can look like a fire under the right circumstances, they might not be lying. The accounts say early in the morning, which I assume to be zero dark thirty or thereabouts. Those 40 year old tube launchers were famous for having burning fuel left in the launch tube after the Missiles were down range. That is why they didn’t use multiple box launchers like everyone else. Potential problems with cook offs.
Or they could have taken a hit. Soviet ships were not designed to take battle damage.

Aug 24, 2008 - 5:54 pm 16. RWE:

Haul out your vintage Rand McNalley World Atlas Centennial Edition and look on page 29. You will notice that one of the bordering nations to Georgia is named Iran. It is only about 500 miles from Tblisi to Tehran.

And if you launched an airstrike from Israel to hit Iran, you would need a suitable place to land and refuel. Perhaps even a place where you could load up and hit them again on the way back. Where? Not Turkey. Not Iraq. Using either of them would cause problems. Where? Maybe a place where you have been cooperating with the people there already for years on aircraft weapons systems. A place like ….Uh huh.

If Russia doesn’t like having our forces in Georgia and the people there waving all those American flags, then how do you think the Iranian government feels?

And we did not warn Georgia or warn Russia diplomatically about initiating hostilities, even though we had over 150 military advisors in Georgia and the Russian troop movements must have shown up on our overhead recon better than the Macy’s Thanksgiving Parade does on TV? Uh huh.

Aug 24, 2008 - 6:10 pm 17. Shivermetimbers:

I am curious if any of these assets can also be leveraged if we attacked Iran?

We would still have to fly over Georgia and Armenia, but under current circumstances, would these two countries allow this in return for US protection against Russia.

We would not have to fly over Turkey in this scenario to come down from the north.

just a question.

Aug 24, 2008 - 6:13 pm 18. Bill Bradley:

No.

>And soon there will probably be accusations that the US, heretofore decried as impotent, is in fact being too potent or “provocative”.

Aug 24, 2008 - 6:22 pm 19. Jim in Virginia:

RWE, I read Richard’s post and thought the same thing. If nothing else, we have resources in place to monitor (and harass, if need be) the Russians when we do hit Iran.
What happened to the “US armed forces are too overstretched to do anything about Russian aggression” meme?

Aug 24, 2008 - 6:27 pm 20. wretchard:

I honestly don’t think there’ll be any direct attack on Iran; not unless Teheran does something extremely provocative. However, I think it likely that a proxy war and pressure will be waged on all of the Ayatollah’s tentacles and economic weak points. And this is the context in which the drama in the Caspian is being played out.

Aug 24, 2008 - 6:30 pm 21. John Samford:

IIRC, the Black Sea would allow the Navy to launch on Iran, or at least be within range. Not sure why, since there is no place on this planet that it out of range of the US Air Force.
The Navy can hit most anywhere in Iran from the Indian Ocean also, I think. Then there is that big air base in Afghanistan. No, it isn’t basing or logistics that is the problem with military action in Georgia, it is the lack of testicles at the Pentagon and White House.
Considering that a B2 could load up on bombs in the USA and deliver them in Georgia about 16 hours later, the ENTIRE USA is a logistics zone for an air campaign over Georgia.
So that makes any logistics arguments bogus and a smoke screen for something else.

I think what happened here was a White House meeting where it was decided that State would carry the ball. The last time that happened was in ‘03 in Iraq with the appointment of Bremmer. We know what happened there. State fumbled on the 2 yard line and we got a nasty little insurgency for our efforts.

They still there? 16 days and counting.

Aug 24, 2008 - 6:30 pm 22. Lifeofthemind:

There is this interesting tidbit in the wiki article on the Dallas. “As a part of the overhaul, Dallas was fitted with a removable Dry Deck Shelter configuration. This large chamber, fitted aft of the sail, has an array of air, water and hydraulic systems that allow Dallas to employ the latest submarine arsenal: the Swimmer Delivery Vehicle – a highly mobile and virtually undetectable means of carrying out special forces missions.” While the Russians have to stare at this ground Special Forces, US or allied, can go around the other way. Somewhat surprised the Russians didn’t pull out all stops to get the Turks to say no to the submarine. The Russians should have the sea well covered with acoustic sensors since it is their bathtub. The Turks have some good diesel boats. At this point the Russians should just get out.

We did not try to put large ampibs in the Black Sea. US amphibs are just to big to meet the Montreaux limits. I suppose a LSD with an LCAC would be nice to have but I don’t know if I’d really want to put a whole Amphibious Ready Group in there. The LHD/LHA probably wouldn’t be allowed under the Montreaux convention anyway. This operation may get the Navy to restart the LCS program that was just cut at only two ships. We need old fashioned larger caliber gun cruisers for shore bombardment. Unfortunately we got rid of all the LKA cargo transports that would have been perfect for this operation as would have been the small LSTs. In this situation we can do like the Russians did and build up the troops as peacekeepers or humanitarian workers without using a Normandy type beach assault from landing craft.

Aug 24, 2008 - 6:45 pm 23. Lifeofthemind:

That was the nuclear submarine Dallas I am refering to, not the Coast Guard Cutter.

Aug 24, 2008 - 6:47 pm 24. Armitage:

The movement of the Mount Whitney is very interesting–possibly the most interesting part. Wretchard or Bill Bradley–can we post some more information for the masses on the power of the Whitney’s battlespace management technologies, and its ability to enhance U.S. military command and control over the eastern Black Sea region? Why send the Whitney, compared with other ships, unless ship availability made it the only likely choice.

Another important question–how many times have 6th Fleet assets moved in these numbers into the Black Sea since 1991, or 2001? The Russians have always been very hesitant about allowing outsiders in…and that’s a fear that goes back centuries.

Aug 24, 2008 - 6:51 pm 25. Streetwise Professor » Talking Turkey:

[...] Richard Fernandez provides some very interesting news regarding the American flotilla arriving off t…: Wired describes the allied flottila closing on Georgian coast, including a DDG, an SSN, the command ship USS Mount Whitney (”onsidered by some to be the most sophisticated Command, Control, Communications, Computer, and Intelligence (C4I) ship ever commissioned”) and the Coast Guard cutter USCGC Dallas. Wired describes the naval force: [...]

Aug 24, 2008 - 6:55 pm 26. NahnCee:

Can Russia / Putin squeal “provocation” without appearing frail and cowardly? Seems to me if you started it, you’ve got to play it out with the cards being dealt. Or do they play cowboys and Russians differently in Moscow?

I had also considered that the sub Dallas might have something to do with the upcoming Iranian fireworks display … which I disagree with Wretchard about and have for several months now. Be interesting to know where our other nuke subs are and are likely to be vis-a-vis Iran in about 2 months.

Aug 24, 2008 - 6:57 pm 27. wretchard:

I don’t think we can speculate too far into the structure of the naval deployment except to say that the admirals have put it together based on what was available and what scenarios they foresee. There’s always a force protection angle to this, and a sustainability one too. The Navy thinks in very nonobvious ways. Where the Army sees a barrier in a body of water, the Navy sees a road.

Aug 24, 2008 - 7:16 pm 28. Liberty Hound:

Some points to consider:

- The US presence (USS Mt. Whitney, USS McFaul, USCGC Dallas) seems to be at about the 30,000 aggregate tons foreign navies are permitted to put in the Black Sea under the Montreux Convention.

- The other warships that recently entered the Black Sea are Standing NATO Maritime Group One (SNMG-1). They are en route three weeks of routine visits to Romania and Bulgaria scheduled last year. These include:

Spanish F-100 FFG Almirante Juan de Borbón (F-102)
German Bremen FFG Lübeck (F214)
Polish Pulaski FFG General Kazimierz Pulaski (F272)
American Oliver Hazard Perry FFG Taylor (FFG-50). She is scheduled to join the NATO group later; perhaps Taylor cannot enter the Black Sea at this time without violating the Montreux tonnage limits.

- Foreign warships are only permitted to stay in the Black Sea for 21 days.

- The Los Angeles SSN Dallas (SSN-700) is not in the Black Sea. Submarines from non-Black Sea states are prohibited in accordance with the Montreux Convention. A closer reading of the Wired.com article will show that it only states that Dallas was “in the area”.

Aug 24, 2008 - 7:16 pm 29. Armitage:

Liberty–that’s extremely helpful. The more that I look up the Whitney, its role as a heavy lifter (with the enormous cargo space to carry a lot of people and supplies) tasked with responding to humanitarian/disaster relief, it makes sense that it would go. But I would not be to surprised if there were additional staff on board, to monitor the Russian naval and air communications in the region.

Aug 24, 2008 - 7:20 pm 30. JFSanders:

“Be interesting to know where our other nuke subs are and are likely to be vis-a-vis Iran in about 2 months.”

One is most likely sitting just outside of the straits of Hormuz and the other is watching the back door.

The choice of Mt.Whitney is an indication of the seriousness and scope of the potential battle field. As ascribed in most ME scenarios that involve the Bear.

Jim

Aug 24, 2008 - 7:26 pm 31. Mongoose:

NahnCee: I believe that the SSN Dallas is an attack boat, not a Boomer.

Aug 24, 2008 - 7:29 pm 32. Aristide:

The USS Taylor (FFG-50) was supposed to have entered the Back Sea in August. Any word on her?

Aug 24, 2008 - 7:32 pm 33. Aristide:

Here’s some pics of the Lübeck, Admiral Juan de Borbon and General K Pulaski, along with some commentary if you can read German.

Aug 24, 2008 - 7:42 pm 34. RWE:

On TV the other day there was a discussion in which it was pointed out that there would soon be not one but two U.S. carrier battle groups in the Indian Ocean area. One was on the way there and it normally would be too early to relieve the one already there. Could be just a coincidence.

I think there may be a U.S. strategy underway to develop a non-NATO informal version of NATO. The Iraqis and Czechs have formed a relationship to refurbish Soviet tanks. Israel and Georgia formed a relationship to share aircraft technology. The Ukraine is selling launch vehicles in an arrangement with Boeing. All of these technically capable small countries are capable of helping each other and causing problems for their adversaries – and without asking permission.

Maybe there will be a new Warsaw Pact, or an Axis of Freedom.

Aug 24, 2008 - 7:43 pm 35. Yosemite Sam:

The DDG is showing the flag and she makes for great press but the real check of power is the USS Dallas, she’s there for business.

Aug 24, 2008 - 7:48 pm 36. Aristide:

To answer my own question, the USS Taylor (FFG-50) is supposed to enter the Back Sea on the 25th.

Aug 24, 2008 - 7:55 pm 37. Dick Stanley:

The McFaul anchored at Batumi, and fifty-five tons were ferried ashore, according to AP which has a reporter on board. So no Poti confrontation is necessary, as Batumi is well south of there.

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gDNLWfQWKrQc48pITBUg9KT_6oVwD92OOO5O0

Aug 24, 2008 - 7:58 pm 38. Mike Sylwester:

Wretchard:
“I don’t see a confrontation with Russia, rather a slow strangulation of its forces should they decide to stay. If they pull back into Russia, or even into Abkhazia or South Ossetia, I don’t see that NATO forces will do anything to discomfit them. ”
————-

Russia also will have to deal with The Law of Unintended Consequences.

It is my impression (I would like to find an expert opinion) that the 65,000 Ossetians who live in South Ossetia are by far the most radically nationalistic of the world’s 700,000 Ossetians.
(For numbers, see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ossetians)

If Russia does unite South and North Ossetia, then the result might be a radicalization of Russia’s 515,000 Ossetians, who have been quiescent in recent decades.

For the North Ossetians, a big complaint has been the unwelcome immigration of Russians, Ingush and other Causcasus nationalities into their area. The immigrants dilute the Ossetian character of their region.

The Russians have been turning a blind eye when Ossetians chase Georgians out of South Ossetia. The Russians will be much more upset when Ossetians likewise start chasing non-Ossetians out of North Ossetia.

North Ossetias have been taking matters into their own hands for several years. Here are excerpts from an article published by Pravda in 2004:
http://english.pravda.ru/accidents/21/96/383/14452_KKK.html

—–
… dozens of North Ossetians founded the “Ossetian Ku Klux Klan”. … locals decided to establish such an undercover organization to withstand authorities.

“We are not advocating racism; there are many Greeks, Russians and Ukrainians among us [but no Ingush or Chechens],” said the organization’s founder Alan. “We gave it a name of the Ku Klux Klan because we’ll have to be the clan of the invisible. We are absolutely not interested in establishing this revolutionary underground, but this is today’s reality. …. It is impossible to remain quiet any longer. The time has come to rid or nation of such bastards. One must decide which side he/she is on. Silence is evil.” ….

Members of the Ossetian KKK do not appear to be emotionally unstable. A majority of them possess a University degree. There are no public activists among them; neither one of them strives to become famous. These people can simply no longer stay in the shade. They want to be heard. …..
—–

The addition of radical South Ossetians into nationalist organizations like this “Ossetian KKK” in North Ossetia might cause Russia serious problems.

Aug 24, 2008 - 7:59 pm 39. buddy larsen:

o/t but, in honor of our host, want to mention that today is National Heroes’ Day in the Philippines. link

also (abrupt mood reversal) the USN, what with Russia having it’s usual handy local gremlins (the SOs in this case) needs to remember the Pueblo and the Mayaguez –as incidents, kinda hard to believe, looking back on ‘em.

Aug 24, 2008 - 8:05 pm 40. Wadeusaf:

From Wikipedia, the Mount Whitney is the flag ship of the US Sixth Fleet, with all encrypted communication capabilities, command and control, and Military Sealift Command Civilian mariners on board.

She was designed to command amphibious assults, redesigned to do a whole lot more and has successfully accomplished more as well. Very interesting, very lethal if need be combination of ships, and personnel, yet more than capable of performing the size of Humanitarian effort required by Russian heavy handedness.

Not all in, but certainly more like the rapid forceful flow of a fire hose stream than a mere drip, drip, drip.

Aug 24, 2008 - 8:06 pm 41. wretchard:

Regarding the Montreaux Convention, this from Wikipedia:

The Convention remains in force today, with amendments, though not without dispute. It was repeatedly challenged by the Soviet Union during World War II and the Cold War. As early as 1939, Stalin sought to reopen the Straits Question and proposed joint Turkish and Soviet control of the Straits, complaining that “a small state [i.e. Turkey] supported by Great Britain held a great state by the throat and gave it no outlet.”[12] After the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact was signed by the Soviet Union and Nazi Germany, the Soviet Foreign Minister Vyacheslav Molotov informed his German counterparts that the USSR wished to take military control of the Straits and establish its own military base there.[13] The Soviets returned to the issue in 1945 and 1946, demanding a revision of the Montreux Convention at a conference excluding most of the Montreux signatories, a permanent Soviet military presence and joint control of the Straits. This was firmly rejected by Turkey, despite an ongoing Soviet “strategy of tension”. For several years after World War II, the Soviets exploited the restriction on the number of foreign warships by ensuring that one of theirs was always in the Straits, thus effectively blocking any nation other than Turkey from sending warships through the Straits.[14] Soviet pressure eventually resulted in Turkey abandoning its policy of neutrality; in 1947 it became the recipient of US military and economic assistance under the Truman Doctrine of “containment” and joined NATO, along with Greece, in 1952.[15]

The Soviet Union and its successor, the Russian Federation, have repeatedly sought to evade the ban on aircraft carriers passing through the Straits by designating large aircraft-carrying warships as “heavy aircraft carrying cruisers”, although Western nations regard such ships as aircraft carriers. In 1976, the USSR sent the aircraft carrier Kiev through the Straits. The episode was repeated in 1991 when the Russian aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov transited the straits.[8]

The passage of US warships through the Straits also raised controversy, as the convention forbids the transit of non-Black Sea nations’ warships with guns of a calibre larger than eight inches (203 mm). In the 1960s, the US sent warships carrying 305 mm calibre ASROC missiles through the Straits, prompting Soviet protests. The Turkish government rejected the Soviet complaints, pointing out that guided missiles were not guns and that such weapons had not even existed at the time of the Convention’s signature so were not restricted by the Convention.[16]

In April 1982, the Convention was amended to allow Turkey to close the Straits at its discretion in peacetime as well as during wartime.[17]

The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (LOS Convention), which entered into force in November 1994, has prompted calls for the Montreux Convention to be revised and adapted to make it compatible with the LOS Convention’s regime governing straits used for international navigation. However, Turkey’s long-standing refusal to sign the LOS Convention has meant that Montreux remains in force without further amendments

Aug 24, 2008 - 8:07 pm 42. Bill Bradley:

This is somewhat amusing.

I’ll explain what is going on, again, later in the week.

Aug 24, 2008 - 8:11 pm 43. 2x4:

Oh, c’mon Bill, don’t be shy. Just a summary? Kinda teaser?

Aug 24, 2008 - 8:19 pm 44. FreeBirdWil:

Ah, fond memories! The USS Mount Whitney was a fond berth during the establishment of USMC Camp LeMonier in Djbouti. Good to she she still treads dangers waters boldly!

Aug 24, 2008 - 8:45 pm 45. Cannoneer No. 4:

All you Hunt For Red October fans expecting great deeds in the Black Sea from SSN-700 USS Dallas should know that she pulled in to Groton August 21, 2008.

She may have already done great deeds in the Black Sea over the last few months, but it will be years before that book gets published.

Aug 24, 2008 - 8:56 pm 46. OldSalt:

@wretchard: “So I don’t see a confrontation with Russia, rather a slow strangulation of its forces should they decide to stay. If they pull back into Russia, or even into Abkhazia or South Ossetia, I don’t see that NATO forces will do anything to discomfit them. As I said, Putin should cash in now, while the gettin’s good.”

It’s the diplomat’s game now.

Russian professes it’s ..um… “military professionals” to be a “peacekeeping” force. The world knows that this is a lie, but diplomats can’t use that sort of language. Instead, they’ll take the Russian’s at their word. If in fact, Russia’s mission is to protect “Russian nationals” in the two break-away Georgian provinces, to prevent “ethnic cleansing”, and their current military posture is not an “invasion force” but a “defensive peacekeeping force”, then all that’s required is to displace the Russian’s with a truly neutral military force of U.N. peacekeepers. A legitimate force could include US troops under UN command, or other nationals, but it could not include participates from littoral states (e.g. Russia, Georgia, Turkey, Ukraine, or Bulgaria). If the Russians, South Ossetians, and Abkhazians return to their homes, Russian forces return home, and a UN force “demilitarizes” Georgia (Georgian troops return to their bases), Russia has no diplomatic leg to stand one. If the UN mandate includes South Ossetia and Abkhazia, then Russian would arguably lose the ability to conduct war against Georgia via proxy. Citizenship issues can be ironed out, those short-haired 18 to 24 year old “recent immigrants” who have immigrated from Russian over the last five years can return home to apply for formal visa’s from Georgia, and South Ossetia and Abkhazia have a true shot at determining exactly what sort of government they want. They could become semi-autonomous territories entities such as Guam and Puerto Rico are to the U.S..

Of course, this is the scenario from the West’s perspective. Russia will try to counter via military action (e.g. possession is 9/10ths of international law), by holding “mock” elections in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and by forming the UN force favorable to Russia’s goals and disposition. Russian will advance these territories as “new independent democratic states” before the UN. That “peaceful” settlement will have a lot of support both from (corrupt) Western Europe as well as via Russian aligned states (e.g. aligned directly or indirectly). And of course, Russian will exercise it’s veto with abandon when it comes to the mandate, ROE, duration of the mandate, and content of the actual UN peacekeeping force composition (e.g no armor, no competent forces, no air cover, limited intelligence capability, no Naval forces, i.e. there are lots of ways to hamstring a peacekeeping operation, and Russian has been exercising those diplomatic capabilities for 50 years).

So, then, what’s the current purpose of the USN and NATO Navy’s in and around the Black Sea (aside from, of course, humanitarian purposes)? Force projection. Fill any vacuum left unoccupied by the Russians and temporarily vacated by the Georgians. Suck up any “oxygen” available to the Russian’s to operate in areas they do not already control, and pressure the Russians to operate as peacekeepers where they do operate. Fulfill the US Navy’s historical role, i.e. keeping the “sea lanes of communication” open and free.

I seriously doubt there will be any initial direct confrontation between US and Russian forces. The USN forces will advance under the unstated assumption that the Black Sea and Georgian ports are open and free. Russian ships will be allowed use as well as any other nation, but military hardware may be restricted (e.g. partial blockade). The USN would need some of the littoral states to invite the U.S. “humanitarian forces” in until a UN force is in place. There is ample precedent for this (though I don’t know if the terms of the Montreux Convention can be adjusted to allow a foreign Naval presence there for over 21 days – this is a real problem unless we reflag warships as dual US/Ukrainian).

In the end, the diplomatic show-down will proceed with U.S. forces waiting in the wings. The U.S. does not need to launch a CAP over Georgia or put boots and tanks on the ground to impact the Russian’s ability to maneuver and resupply. Push will come to shove diplomatically before any US/Russian clash in the ground. And, expect the Texan still in the White House to use his “shit-kickers” to bring NATO into line. NATO needs the US more than the US needs NATO, now more than ever, and the US has already committed to redeploy existing Western European bases to Eastern European allies. The USA can do more than that if Germany, France, or other Western European countries insist on giving Russia a blank check over Georgia, the Ukraine, and other new Nato entrant’s or applicants. I really don’t see GWB sitting by the White House hearth this winter, waiting to retire, while Eastern Europe goes to hell in a hand basket. Bush said that there would be repercussions: keep watching.

Your scenario could indeed come to fruition, i.e. the US and Russian forces could start maneuvering for advantage, with the US squeezing Russia at it’s most vulnerable point, i.e. logistics, with Russian moving into more of Georgia proper, even living off the land in response. Or, Russian could move other chess pieces, e.g. using Cuba and Venezuela to create havoc along the US Western Borders, by messing with oil supplies (and of course, world prices). I think that Bush will move along the line of action I laid out, playing Putin’s game against him as long as Putin constrains that game. If Putin makes the mistake of issuing naked ultimatums, launching attacks directly on US forces, or threatening the US in any significant way, I think observers here will be shocked at how fast US forces move to change the balance of power in Georgia. Russia can be hurt in Georgia, and though I and many others would kind of like to see that, there is both the Nuclear showdown aspect and the oft spoken maxim of “if you break it you clean it up” to constrain the US (not to mention the war-bored/war-weary US electorate). Bush will pursue diplomacy first, and the US fleet will be the hammer that keeps Russia from using diplomacy to consolidate its gains indefinitely.

Aug 24, 2008 - 9:07 pm 47. OldSalt:

… and once again, my post contained numerable, obvious grammatical errors. I know better, but I’m time constrained.

Regrets

Aug 24, 2008 - 9:10 pm 48. OldSalt:

numerable=numerous … man!

Aug 24, 2008 - 9:11 pm 49. buddy larsen:

This former naval person blog hinted back at the war breakout that USA had something in the Black Sea that could do something if something had to be done. Prob. in the archives somewhere around 10 Aug.

Anyhoo some great pix of Moskva, and some Rus women in bikinis.

So, no non-Black Sea nations are allowed to have subs in the Black Sea? Then all those fears of non-cooperating Turkey were unfounded?

Lastly, the wiki pasted above, note that it was Rus belligerence which drove Turkey into NATO in the first place. Ha. Not 10 feet tall at all, brainz-wise.

Aug 24, 2008 - 9:11 pm 50. Cannoneer No. 4:

Moskva Returns to Sevastopol apparently undamaged.

Aug 24, 2008 - 9:11 pm 51. buddy larsen:

Great stuff, old salt –i wouldn’t wrry abuot typos, its yo content we’z innersted in –

Aug 24, 2008 - 9:21 pm 52. Cannoneer No. 4:

GMTI Buddy

Aug 24, 2008 - 9:29 pm 53. buddy larsen:

you had the main point, tho –i just saw a link that said ‘bikinis’ –which BTW when i went back and looked, weren’t there –booo

Aug 24, 2008 - 9:32 pm 54. OldSalt:

Buddy.. I followed the trail a bit further, and the bikini’s are in fact there. DO NOT GO THERE, whatever you do, DO NOT FOLLOW THOSE LINKS. Ma eyes are going to serious burn treatment after going one-link-to-far.

Aug 24, 2008 - 9:38 pm 55. bobal:

WOW! I found ‘em, after much searching. Those Russian dolls are something, and definitely not worth the search.

Aug 24, 2008 - 9:42 pm 56. Lifeofthemind:

Wonder how the false report regarding the submarine Dallas got into the mix but history is full of these 12 hour rumors. We probably do have an SSN shadowing the Russian fleet as it heads for Syria from Murmansk. A sub in the Black Sea would be interesting but as I’m sure I mentioned it is Turkey’s to patrol with diesel boats and the Russian submarine service is not what it used to be. Given the 21 day rule how long do ships have to depart the Black Sea before they can return? Is Nato going to have to keep two small fleets on either side of the Bosporus and swap them every 3 weeks? That will get expensive.

Note from the wiki article quoted by our host that the famous Russian light touch drove Turkey into the hands of Nato in 1949. A similar effort at bullying is getting Russia’s other neighbors to rush to America’s side now. Despite the frothing of the immature and the permanently adolexent the Americans are famous for their light touch and it does do us good. Even those who oppose us for political or tactical reasons will acknowledge that it is far better to have the American military show up in your country than the Russian.

I see nothing wrong with my comments about Russias tactical problems, internal security problems and logistical problems. The sooner we can shut off the flow of money to the Iranian regime and eliminate that threat the better. If Israel can be helped in breaking the Syrian/Iranian allies in Lebanon then the sooner the Assad regime will fall. When that happens the Russian Navy will have no place to go for the Winter but Kaliningrad. The proxy regime of Hizbollah is the greatest threat to opening a wider conflict and threatening all the gains made in the last 6 years at this time. My prediction is that on all these issues we will need to buy Turkish cooperation and the price will as usual be paid by the Kurds. Perhaps I worry to much about the 300 Russian tanks and their Division in Armenia but someone should be keeping an eye on it.

Aug 24, 2008 - 9:43 pm 57. Cannoneer No. 4:

Back during the Cold War, before mail order Russian brides on the internet I thought all the Russian broads looked like that.

If I die on the Russian Front
Bury me in a Russian . . . .

Aug 24, 2008 - 9:45 pm 58. Lifeofthemind:

American approach. Bob Hope tours with beautiful friendly girls and reminds the troops what they are fighting for.

Russian approach. Send soldiers and sailors to die in foreign places knowing they will put up with anything and do anything to avoid going home.

Aug 24, 2008 - 9:58 pm 59. fedya:

Simple [?] question:
The Aegis armament of the USS McFaul (DDG-74),an Arleigh Burke-class destroyer, includes SM-2 missiles and not SM-3 missiles, right?

Is it is or is it not capable of intercepting and destroying SS-21 Tochka’s after they are launched? If the SM is on the McFaul and the SS-21 is launched at Tbilisi from South “Ossettia”, will Aegis kill the Tochka?

Aug 24, 2008 - 10:07 pm 60. Dave:

Looks more and more like Dien Bien Putin to me.

Note: It also looks like the Obamadroids are getting panicky about missle defense.

Cannoneer 4: One Two Three Four One Two
THREEFOUR!

Think Wretchard would let us do a specil on old Jody Calls?

Aug 24, 2008 - 10:10 pm 61. NahnCee:

Army can wrap it neat with bow-tie in Iraq.

Marines can take over and whip into shape Afghanistan and then start thinking about Pakistan.

Navy can deal with Russian hijinks. After all, they’ve been playing Crazy Ivan for decades.

Leaving the Air Force to deal with Iran.

Life is good. And they said America is stretched too thin.

(I saw reports of Dallas submarine being part of that group elsewhere on the internet today, too. I wonder which is the disinformation: no submarine in the Black Sea or that one specific one checked into Groton.)

I like Old Salt’s analysis. And agree with it, mostly, but I still think it would be fun to cut off Russian visa’s and put holds on their bank accounts outside of Moscow.

Aug 24, 2008 - 10:11 pm 62. fedya:

@old salt:
Fulfill the US Navy’s historical role, i.e. keeping the “sea lanes of communication” open and free.

Good one: the US Navy can keep rail lines across the Caucasus open because the US Army freed them up from Persian Gulf duty. Gotta love it, right?

Aug 24, 2008 - 10:17 pm 63. JFSanders:

Did some reading at the bikini babe link. Most of the posters on that board seem to be affiliated with the Black sea fleet and are Russian or supporters. Lots of jokes about diapers for the Georgians and the McFaul being too chicken to dock in Poti. But the flip side is they are “concerned” about the Mt.Whitney being in the area.

Seems they feel the next shot is Iran as well. They think we are going through Georgia to Tehran so as to cut Ankara a plausible excuse.

Jim

Aug 24, 2008 - 10:25 pm 64. buddy larsen:

That navy blog if you scroll down a ways to the entry with the big YinYang graphic –that is one wild analysis –USA is better off with the Rus encroachment –and he defends it –the seven core interests even in rivalry are better off closing the gap areas no matter which core power wins or loses any particular gap –pretty cold hearted –interesting tho –windows into mirrors

Aug 24, 2008 - 10:29 pm 65. buddy larsen:

JF Sanders –i just sent that link to my daughter (majored in Russian) to characterize a feel of the mood there –heh –i’ll post what she says –if she gets back in timely manner –

Aug 24, 2008 - 10:33 pm 66. Galrahn:

FYI to clear up some of the rumors…

The false report regarding the USS Dallas is sourced to “White House, Pentagon at odds over aid to Georgia”, McClatchy Washington Bureau, DC – Aug 19, 2008. Check Google Cache, the article was changed when the Dallas pulled into Groton this week.

It should be noted that Turkey did give permission for a submarine to cross the straits, that is sourced to Turkey media and like the SNMG-1 ships is reported to have permission to enter the Black Sea based on schedule from October 2007. Only 2 ships has asked permission to date to cross the Straits as a result of the Georgian conflict, the USS McFaul and USS Mount Whitney. The Dallas and SNMG-1 had previous permission for an exercise Russia was originally scheduled to participate in.

There is no media confirmation of a US submarine in the Black Sea, only Turkish media confirmation that permission was previously given.

The Russians have 1 submarine with a home port in Ukraine, Kilo class, and it is in good condition.

USS McFaul (DDG-74)is not BMD capable. USS Ramage (DDG 61) is the only Atlantic fleet AEGIS ship known to have AEGIS BMD, and it deploys this week with the Iwo Jima ESG.

SNMG-1 will be conducting exercises with Romania and Bulgaria, as explained above, these exercises have been planned since October 2007.

Aug 24, 2008 - 10:39 pm 67. fedya:

From the Armchair Admiral, quoting “Not-a-Dreadnought” Huntington:

http://informationdissemination.blogspot.com/

The application of naval power against the land requires of coarse [sic] an entirely different sort of Navy from that which existed during the struggles for sea supremacy. The basic weapons of the new Navy are those which make it possible to project naval power inland. Those appear to take primarily three forms:

1. carrier based naval air power, which will in the near future be capable of striking a thousand miles inland with atomic weapons;
2. fleet-based amphibious power, which can attack and seize shore targets, and which may, with the development of carrier based air lifts, make it possible to land ground combat troops far inland; and
3. naval artillery, which with the development of guided missiles will be able to bombard land objectives far removed from the coast.

The navy of the future will have to be organized around these basic weapons, and it is not Utopian to envision task forces with the primary mission of attacking, or seizing, objectives far inland through the application of these techniques.

National Policy and the Transoceanic Navy, Proceedings, May 1954, Samuel Huntington

So, we have this huge C4I thingamajiggie that has to leave Club Black Sea in 21 days, a Burke class destroyer with full Aegis weapons that also has to leave, right? Sometime long into the future we will have DDG1000’s, seven, or two.

No wonder commenters at Armchair Admiral are screaming for more Burke class destroyers!

Again, my question is this: is the Burke class destroyer USS McFaul, armed with missiles that can intercept SS-21’s 50 miles inland? Apparently they could be if they aren’t, if only the Top Brass would let go of their DD1000 dreams.

How far off am I here?

Aug 24, 2008 - 11:04 pm 68. Lifeofthemind:

Galfahn, Thank you.

Aug 24, 2008 - 11:09 pm 69. fedya:

@Galrahn:
USS McFaul (DDG-74)is not BMD capable.

OMG, this gets murkier and murkier. Does that mean it does not have SM-3 missiles but that it does have “BMD” in the form of SM-2 missiles? If SM-2, can they hit a ballistic missile launched some distance from them and targeted somewhere else, or just one incoming to them?

And, er, if they are SM-3, but they are “tactical”, i.e. low trajectory, can they hit the little buggers?

Inquiring minds in Tbilisi really want to know.

Aug 24, 2008 - 11:13 pm 70. fedya:

urg.

Should have asked, does “NOT “BMD” CAPABLE” (Ballistic Missile Defense) mean no anti-missile defense at all, or simply the high-arcing trajectory stuff?

I’m a total seapower newbie and Wikipedia ain’t pulling its tonnage here for me. I suspect the same is true for the entire adminsitration, US Congress and those contractor-oriented conslutants running the Navy. Just saying’, y’know?

What do we need to do? Mount freaking Patriot batteries on Coast Guard Cutters? Hmmm, would that work?

Time to call in the Army?

Aug 24, 2008 - 11:20 pm 71. buddy larsen:

Rus parliament debating annexation of Abk & SO, as we speak, reports ”Euro Market Countown” show on Bloomberg TV. Reports word ”genocide” being used by current speaker, pro annexation. Bloomberg promises further updates as they arrive. Asian markets open very strong and gain from there. Hong Kong way up, as much as 6% this session.

Aug 24, 2008 - 11:24 pm 72. bobal:

At around 10,000 feet the Roki Tunnel does seem quite high, but the Russians will be able to keep it open sufficiently to supply their people, absent interference by some power unknown.

Aug 24, 2008 - 11:26 pm 73. buddy larsen:

Sarkozy calls “emergency meeting” of entire 27 (24?) nations of EU to “reconsider all matters of all relationships with Russia” –for Sept 01.

No matter what the two houses of Rus parliament decide, the final call rests with the President –Medvedev –who has no definite deadline to announce decision (all this according to Bloomberg report coming in just now).

Aug 24, 2008 - 11:29 pm 74. buddy larsen:

@fedya: “No wonder commenters at Armchair Admiral are screaming for more Burke class destroyers”

watching the shenanigans in Denver today, the parades of costumed anti-American wards of Uncle Sam, i couldn’t help thinking of how many Arleigh Burkes we could have if we didn’t have to buy votes for the moron party.

Aug 24, 2008 - 11:36 pm 75. fedya:

@bobal:
The Roki tunnel is on the watershed divide between the North Caucasus and South Causcasus. It leads directly into South “Ossettia”.

The one to watch is the much lower elevation, ancient route south from “North” (”Authentic”) Ossettia through the Darial Pass. It is well North of the watershed divide

It is very interesting that Georgian territory runs North of the watershed line from there, along the border with Ingushetia and along the border with Chechenya, far North the infamous Pankisi Gorge which is well inside Georgia.

Georgia’s border jumps back to the watershed at Dagestan border until it runs into friendly old Azerbaijan. There it jumps downhill again to the famous Alazani River, drainage to some of the world’s oldest and greatest wine-grape growing lands.

Seems to me that Georgia has a lot of border troubles ahead. This region is not going to quiet down anytime soon.

Time for a shotgun marriage: Turkey, Georgia, Azerbaijan. Armenia can catch up later.

Aug 24, 2008 - 11:47 pm 76. fedya:

@buddy:

Wish they war named “HARLEY-Burkes”

Aug 24, 2008 - 11:49 pm 77. Peace Like A River » Cables, dispatches and memoranda:

[...] Belmont Club – The arrival of the USS Mount Whitney is interesting because it implies that the “relief operation” might get much larger. By exploiting the fear generated by the Russian incursion into Georgia, the USN may position a presence in the Black Sea than heretofore, something Russia probably doesn’t want. But how will they stop it without directly confronting the US? [...]

Aug 24, 2008 - 11:52 pm 78. whiskey:

I suppose Russia will counter. There’s always the danger that the “new” course of conflict, without clearly stated rules, and the feeling that America, weak and politically divided, will respond as say, Britain did to seizing of it’s ships, would spiral out of control.

The most obvious counter is small, zodiac type boarding parties to “seize” or at least harass various USN vessels. This could be done to “test” US responses and I suppose various Iranian people could be used as deniable proxies for some of the testing. Can one use the scenario outlined in the USN war games (harassing small ships for days, to erode readiness, followed by a surprise attack)?

I don’t know the answer, but the Russians could find out. Like I said, the Iranians could provide a suitable proxy, or “Abkhazian” forces.

The less obvious counter would be to assist the Iranians in closing the Gulf. That would suit Ahmadinejad’s and Putin’s needs. The Gulf, obviously, would not STAY closed but closed enough to drive up oil prices sky high again. Keep the cash flowing in. Gunmen paid. It would provide a proxy test with even better deniability against the USN, with the promise of sinking a few American ships to intimidate Gulf nations. Which is Iran’s game and Russia supports (so Iran will fight America).

If things are REALLY bad of course, Ahmadinejad will do his best to create a war with the US, so the reason the payments do not go out to his gunmen is “America.”

Aug 24, 2008 - 11:53 pm 79. Lifeofthemind:

fedya,
You are treading on classified territory regarding the operatiomnal charactistics of individual weapon systems. You can look up basic unclassified information on the physics of fire control ballistics. The variables to consider are the distance speed altitude and target angle of what you want to intercept as well as the speed flight time and sensors of the weapon. Target angle means is it coming at you or going away or crossing past you. The more complicated the problem the smaler the area around you in which your weapon can achieve an interception. I will now make numbers up and pull them out of my ass. Consider this problem, you have just purchased the latest Raytheon Super Duper Ultra missile system. In theory it can fly over 200 miles to engage a target. If you are sitting in the ocean and get a report that a nice big slow Russian Bear bomber is taking off from a runway almost 150 miles away. You can probably fire a missile and pick that plan off as it is going down the runway. The US Navy did something like that to a Mig in Vietnam. Now consider that the same ship with the same weapon gets a report that someone 20 miles to your North-west is shooting a small fast missile at a city 30 miles to your North-east. Would you be able to intercept that target? It would have to be a heck of a good weapon to pull that off. The best way to target an enemy’s weapon is to destroy the launch site. The second best way is to shoot from where the enemy is aiming at and intercept the incoming weapon coming straight at you as far from you as possible. The farther you are from his target the less time you have to intercept him.

Aug 24, 2008 - 11:55 pm 80. Whitehall:

Let’s predict the future of Europe:

1) “Old Europe” aligns with Russia in the “New NATO”, sans USA

2) the USA reconstitutes the Warsaw Pact, but without Russia

Aug 24, 2008 - 11:56 pm 81. Lifeofthemind:

We can tell the Chinese that if the Russians can get away with redrawing the borders of other countries then Tibet and Taiwan and Sinkiang can go on the table also. Watch the Chinese and their friends in Africa scream at that idea.

Aug 25, 2008 - 12:02 am 82. fedya:

@whiskey:
The Gulf, obviously, would not STAY closed but closed enough to drive up oil prices sky high again.

Ah apolerjizes iff’n ah’m postin’ 2 durned mucho, but, aren’t there a few pipelines in the Russkie orbit that are not in her territory? Europe might spend a chilly Winter or two, but don’t Iran and Les Russes depend on a few pipelines, too?

Prices may go up, and we may not like paying the Saudi’s, but at least the Russian and Persian Mafias would lose THEIR paydays? Hell, I vote to bomb Vene-ZOO-ela’s oil, too!

Can I recommend Georgian Kvanchkara, a semi-sweet red? Awful drun delish! Not helpful for one’s military-political judgement, but it’s one hell of an anodyne!

Now ah’m talkin’ crazy-like agin’. Sho-’nuf be some crazy damn shit goin’ on ALL OVER, an’ ah’m gittin’ crazy-like, right along wif’em!

Aug 25, 2008 - 12:04 am 83. Lifeofthemind:

Whitehall, That isn’t going to happen because Old Europe doesn’t actually want to fight the US for Putin they want the US to protect them while they keep getting their hydrocarbon drugs. Their pacifism is sincere, they just want to keep feeding the crocodile. Churchill said the Americans will do the right thing after they exhaust every other possibility. The Europeans are the new Americans. The Europeans can wake up and would except for two linked problems. Their low birth rates and their penetration by a hostile invading nation.

Aug 25, 2008 - 12:10 am 84. buddy larsen:

iirc –without googling –Arleigh Burke is who led “The Charge of Taffy Three” –which was a little-known naval encounter within the greater Battle of Leyte Gulf that the czar’s & pasha’s admirals might want to look into.

Bloomberg reporting that upper house of Rus parliament has just voted to recognize independence of the two ”breakaway regions”.

Aug 25, 2008 - 12:11 am 85. Lifeofthemind:

It would be nice if Bush called the Congress back into session, conventions be damned. Gave a clear explanation to the nation and the world of what Putin is doing and why it must be stopped.

Aug 25, 2008 - 12:16 am 86. fedya:

@LifeoftheMind:
The second best way is to shoot from where the enemy is aiming at and intercept the incoming weapon coming straight at you as far from you as possible.

Thank you, sir. That is what I suspected. This means that our “magic Navy” isn’t so magical after all. We still need Patriots AND Phalanx CIWS guns on the ground AT THE TARGETS to stop incoming nasties.

So, build more faster smaller boats to transport more, more, more anti-missile systems, right? On the ground, right? Manned by Marines, sure, but on the damned ground; around the last defensive perimeter. Hmmmm.

Aug 25, 2008 - 12:16 am 87. buddy larsen:

fedya, in your self-ed effort on the topic, be sure and look into anti-ship missile ’swarm’ tactics. On Rus periphery, ’swarm’ is what your point defense could face. and it’s pretty scary. A flotilla that size with no combat air patrol is almost a trip wire in itself. almost, hell. But good thing is we ought to detect any such build up.

Aug 25, 2008 - 12:26 am 88. fedya:

@Lifeofthemind:
It would be nice if Bush called the Congress back into session,

Another point in favor of Czar Putie’s True Genius. No way our so-called government wants to acknowledge this mess until both “conventions” are over (am I starting to sound like SlyWester, now? Mwa-haa-wha-hah-haaaa!)

There is the 90 day thing, right? BUT, I think we really need a “call for help” from Turkey. The Far-West-Euro-Weenies might gladly ignore Turkey, but I don’t think Americans will.

Just a guess; counterintuitive; but we do like to save folks, don’t we?

Of course we do.

Aug 25, 2008 - 12:28 am 89. Lifeofthemind:

Ground air defense is the Army’s job. Roles and missions, don’t want to step on the other guys job. It is like a union. Army flies helicoptors and does tactical missile defense. Air force does fixed wings and (ABM) Anti-Ballistic Missiles. Theater Area Air Defense (THAAD) is an Army program. If the Georgians can just wait a couple of years we’ll have the perfect system.

Aug 25, 2008 - 12:28 am 90. cedarford:

Samford – That is why they didn’t use multiple box launchers like everyone else. Potential problems with cook offs.
Or they could have taken a hit.

Horsepucky. Just about every Soviet ship by the 70s was fitted with a Quad or two of surface0to-surface missiles or cruise missiles. Even dinky little patrol craft that you wondered how they’d launch and not capsize.

Soviet ships were not designed to take battle damage.

More horsepucky. Obviously you never saw the inside of a Soviet war vessel or looked at a design layout of one.

RWE – Haul out your vintage Rand McNalley World Atlas Centennial Edition and look on page 29. You will notice that one of the bordering nations to Georgia is named Iran.

Look again. Georgia does not border Iran.
That would be Turkey, Armenia, and Azerbaijan – none of which would be overjoyed to have Zionists in their airspace.

Samford – The Navy can hit most anywhere in Iran from the Indian Ocean also, I think. Then there is that big air base in Afghanistan. No, it isn’t basing or logistics that is the problem with military action in Georgia, it is the lack of testicles at the Pentagon and White House. Considering that a B2 could load up on bombs in the USA and deliver them in Georgia about 16 hours later, the ENTIRE USA is a logistics zone for an air campaign over Georgia.

And which countries would sign on to the US airspace permissions? That, and the minor detail that aside from neocon bootlickers, no one is slavering for WWIII against the Russians.

Nahncee – NahnCee:

Army can wrap it neat with bow-tie in Iraq.

Marines can take over and whip into shape Afghanistan and then start thinking about Pakistan.

Navy can deal with Russian hijinks. After all, they’ve been playing Crazy Ivan for decades.

How sweet to know that after 5 years and 2 trillion blown and 30,000 casualties that Iraq was a cakewalk after all, just as the neocons promised, only awaiting the right moment for the Army to wrap a bowtie on it!

And Afghanistan and Pakistan, more neocon “cakewalk”! adventure for eager Marines in the 50,000 deployable on a sustained basis – facing 22 million Pashtuns and the Pak military of 3 million.

And for our “Special Friend” what better gift than the American Air Force violating other nations airspace to do a “simple surgical bombing of Iran”.

The Navy will use the small humanitarian task force it now has in the Black Sea to confront the entire Caucausus Russian military, including 300 strike fighters, the S-300V/P and S-400 integrated air defenses, and the shore batteries and bombers seeking to retaliate with cruise missiles and Sunburn antiship missiles.

I guess that leaves the Coast Guard to protect our Special Friend from Hezbollah if it starts kicking their asses again.

Meanwhile, of course, Congress will not summarily impeach Bush and indict the cabal of 25 or so neocons pushing war for criminal acts – but will instead cheerlead 3 new wars – “Go Beloved Maximum War Leader BUsh, Hurray for our Special Friend and its money-dispensing lobbyists!” “And God bless the noble freedom lovers of the countries we are bombing!!”

Nahncee – Life is good. And they said America is stretched too thin.

Of course it is. Your relatives are safe from the Draft so you can saber-rattle away, and Bush has figured out that he can give massive tax cuts to the rich in wartime and fight multiple wars as long as China, Japan, and Saudi Arabia loan us funds and only have to be repaid after Bush leaves office.

For the volunteer military, yes they are stretched thin. And we have less ships, subs, air transports, fighter jets, tanks, bombers, and working artillery pieces than when Bush took office,

===================
On that report that we sent just over 46 AF flights into Iraq, Pakistan and Afghanistan loaded each with 70 million in pallets of freshly printed 100 dollar bills for the “noble Muslim courageous freedom lover leaders and brave officer and police friends and hero contractors”. And that that money is now surfacing by the truckload in Syria, Dubai, and Switzerland……

Wouldn’t have been nice if just one of those AF flights for direct bribes & contractors handing out cash had instead been diverted to drop 70 million in 100-bills over just one zip code location full of Americans?

Wouldn’t have had to be even a distressed area like Michigan or Upstate NY or Ohio. Just any zip code…

Aug 25, 2008 - 12:32 am 91. fedya:

@BL(T?):
buddy larsen:
fedya, in your self-ed effort on the topic, be sure and look into anti-ship missile ’swarm’ tactics

VERY good point! I wuz wonderin’ whether Phalanx guns were capable of defending a SAM site, right? If two or three Phalanx guns can keep a SAM or Patriot site clear of swarmed incoming over a sustained assault, then keeping a perimeter of ground-mobile Phalanx sustaining a protective envelope around a Patriot battery would be, er, invincible(at least absent overwhelming local ground assault), no?

Just playing hopeful, you know. Prob’ly applies to them tub floaters, too, don’t it?

Aug 25, 2008 - 12:37 am 92. Ledger:

The USS Dallas may not be a boomer in the traditional sense but, it looks like the Los Angeles class submarine can fire tomahawk cruise missiles (one would assume tomahawks with nukes). It’s somewhat unclear if the USS Dallas does have the vertical tubes.

[Wiki]

Weapons and fire control systems

Los Angeles class submarines carry about 25 torpedo-tube launched weapons, and all boats of the class are capable of launching Tomahawk cruise missiles horizontally (from the torpedo tubes). The last 31 boats of this class also have 12 dedicated vertical (VLS) tubes for launching Tomahawks.

See: Los Angeles Class subs
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Los_Angeles_class_submarine

See USS Dallas

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Dallas_(SSN-700)

Aug 25, 2008 - 12:38 am 93. Lifeofthemind:

fedya,
Remember what I said. It is much better to engage the enemy at a distance. Two problems with CIWS.
1. It uses lots of bullets fast, once it is done all you can do is throw potatoes.
2. It turns an incoming missile into incoming junk, that still hits you like shrapnel.
When the enemy gets a shot at you and you need to survive then you want to have a point defense system but the idea in Naval combat is not to draw fire on your position. That may be an Army idea.

Aug 25, 2008 - 12:49 am 94. fedya:

@Lifeofthemind:
Army… does tactical missile defense…. Theater Area Air Defense (THAAD) is an Army program…

OK, got it. Then WTFITA? [you to figure the acronym].

Actually, it is “better” (geopolitically) if we unveil “Army” anti-missile defenses throughout Georgia just a moment before the Georgians start bleeding those @#$% Russkies to death, awful death. Just sayin’ y’know?

HOWEVER, who knows if we have enough of them (missile systems and Phalanxi, not Russkie targets–are you blood-thirsty or what??)? Hell, chances are we’re gonna need a lot of them in Israel any day now, not to mention the Gulf coast from Texas to Florida…

Aug 25, 2008 - 12:52 am 95. fedya:

@LifeoftheMind:
Well, then, other than the MAD tripwire, we’re cooked. No tactical defense against a very possible Russkie escalation, short of full scale force elimination at a distance, is reasonable, right?

Aug 25, 2008 - 12:56 am 96. buddy larsen:

reading C4 at the bottom of this thread is like finishing up a nice refreshing drink and then eating the glass.

Aug 25, 2008 - 1:00 am 97. bobal:

I think that if the Russians really wanted to sink our boats in the Black Sea they could do so in about 1/2 hour. That being so, there’s no sense to worry about.

Aug 25, 2008 - 1:04 am 98. fedya:

@bobal:
there’s no sense to worry about

We’re talking about the escalation that must follow a Georgian refusal to accept defeat. We aren’t there, yet.

Aug 25, 2008 - 1:08 am 99. Lifeofthemind:

buddy larsen,
The only thing worse than finding a worm in your apple is finding half a worm. It means nothing to me. Not my blog so not my problem.

fedya,
Time to hunker down and let special forces and popular measures begin to take effect. The professionals are gathering in the pieces. Putin could still go home.

Aug 25, 2008 - 1:10 am 100. buddy larsen:

yeh –it’s a matter of material –that flotilla could knock a lot of Rus stuff down, but when it is all out of ammo, Ivan will still have a shitload of local stuff, and more coming from the interior. Think of that flotilla being enemy and fighting up the Houston ship channel –or NY harbor –or hmm, i was gonna say San Francisco Bay Area –but skip that. Naw, it’s a humanitarian mission, a diplomatic weapon, and a trip wire. Not a military power-balancer at all. IOW, it’s edge of our seat time, still.

Aug 25, 2008 - 1:13 am 101. Gary Rosen:

C-fudd’s at it again, with another pompous, turgid post replete with the usual pointless references to “Zionists” and “neocons”. For a more distilled look at what floats through the septic tank between his ears, try this:

http://minx.cc/?post=66320

Especially post #51. Not exactly out of Dale Carnegie. Thoughtful readers of this blog can use this in evaluating C-fudd’s honesty, decency, integrity and intellect. No doubt he will emulate his mentor Buchanan and try to weasel out, but as they saying goes you can’t fool all the people all the time …

Aug 25, 2008 - 1:17 am 102. buddy larsen:

@lifeofmind: i didn’t mean to sound a complaint –C4 is a valuable voice –you just have to ignore the extra dash of contempt he lards it up with. if ya need a end-zone for the worst-case, he’s yer reliable boy.

Aug 25, 2008 - 1:19 am 103. buddy larsen:

gary –not seeing much of buchanan on the telly anymore –i wonder if that latest book –the one which seems to be functioning as a hitler rehab –has kinda pushed him a tad beyond the pale -?

Aug 25, 2008 - 1:25 am 104. Lifeofthemind:

Gary larsen, Thank you.

buddy larsen, I disagree, I do not thank a mad dog for providing a valuable voice. There is enough evil in the world. I am unlikey to forget what it looks like.

Aug 25, 2008 - 1:41 am 105. Gary Rosen:

Buddy, Buchanan has probably lost any Polish admirers he may have had but he’s more popular than ever with the sub-1% who voted for him in 2000. In his Town Hall column now he’s praising Russia and his fans are quoting Pravda as a source.

Aug 25, 2008 - 1:41 am 106. Lifeofthemind:

Gary,
Town Hall worries me. As soon as Mary Katherine Ham was out the door it seems like the wheels came off.

Aug 25, 2008 - 1:43 am 107. fedya:

c4 = Nietsche’s Wahnbriefe

Aug 25, 2008 - 1:44 am 108. buddy larsen:

Gary: Buchanan = Father Coughlin (my obscure reference for the day).

Lifeofmind, don’t get me wrong –i’ve been squabbling with C4’s hate speech proclivity for years –it’s that he will perforate any excess confidence in a hurry. If you can look at one of his characterizations en arguendo, as they say, and still find hope, then you know there is hope.

Aug 25, 2008 - 1:58 am 109. buddy larsen:

1) “God is Dead” –Nietsche
2) “Nietsche is Dead” –God

Aug 25, 2008 - 2:09 am 110. fedya:

Wall Street Journal:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121962284006967693.html?mod=djemEditorialPage

Poland and other states should be under no illusion they can count on the U.S. in a crisis. In the past we left Poland, Hungary and Czechoslovakia in the lurch. More recently we haven’t done much to help Georgia.

For sheerest blunt truthfullness, it kinda puts C4 to shame does it not?

Aug 25, 2008 - 2:11 am 111. fedya:

@buddy larsen:
3) C4 is nuttier than granola at a Grateful Dead Concert.

Haaa-ha-ha-ha, he-he-he-he, oh-ho-ho-ho! Take that, C4, at least we know you’re a lying, slanted, partizan , dipsie-ddoooddle. The WSJ, er, gotta take a good lood at that one….

Aug 25, 2008 - 2:15 am 112. OldSalt:

“The upper house of parliament, or Federation Council, voted 130-0 to call on President Dmitry Medvedev to recognize the rebel regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent. ” – Washington Post

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/08/25/AR2008082500184.html

Looks like the Ruskies are back to the USSR norm of 100% votes, and clear unanimity on every issue, as the great leader dictates.

I kind of called this in my last post, but it wasn’t exactly earth-shaking news. Russia’s out to consolidate gains up front “legally”, (in every Russians mind) as it were. International inaction and the further advance fo their thugs enables them to push the bargaining chips further on-out. The Soviet’s ..oh..I’m sorry, the “Russians” will behave as they always do. They’ll attempt to start negotiations by splitting your wallet’s contents in two, and after they’ve pocketed half, start demanding 75% of the remaining cash as their opening position.

I’m just a little bit surprised, not too much, but just a little, that the Russian thieves did not even present the charade of a sham vote for “Independence”. They’ve taken what they’ve wanted by force, no independent NGO or international body has validated what the Abkhazian or South Ossetian’s want via plebiscite, and Russia presents it as fate accompli.

What does this mean? Well, the Russians may be absolutely convinced that they are impervious to any outside influence, that they have absolutely nothing to fear from the USA, NATO, World opinion, or internal political opinion. Or, perhaps they are scared shitless and want to get the annexation overwith, get their troops out of harms way, declare victory, and go home.

Unfortunately, I lean towards the view that the only thing that will probably derail Putin is a lot of Russian boys in pine boxes. I hope to hell that the Georgians are now retrieving their artillery shell ammo caches, and are building IED’s by the 100’s. (As for the Russian response to IED’s, if the Georgian’s care more about that then they do freedom, they might as name every new Georgian baby girl “Putin’s Whore” and every little boy “Putin’s Slave”, pull a “DNC frenchy special”, and give up now, begging for Russian mercy.

Well, there I go again, letting my emotions get away from me.

Aug 25, 2008 - 2:25 am 113. Juliio McCain:

“Richard Fernandez”? To these redneck, toothless gringos you are Ricci the Spic. To we of “La Raza” you ar: “Puro Indio.” When I see a face like yours, it is usually behind a box of tomatos.

You can take the indio out of the frijoles, but you can’t take the frijoles out of indio

Shop eating white mierda. These rednecks want Raz-falsos like you, mowing their lawns and picking up their dog shit, estupido.

Go Obama! A Nation Awaits Your Healing Touch

Aug 25, 2008 - 2:25 am 114. Juliio McCain:

“Richard Fernandez”? To these redneck, toothless gringos you are Ricci the Spic. To we of “La Raza” you are: “Puro Indio.” When I see a face like yours, it is usually behind a box of tomatos.

You can take the indio out of the frijoles, but you can’t take the frijoles out of indio

Shop eating white mierda. These rednecks want Raz-falsos like you, mowing their lawns and picking up their dog shit, estupido.

Go Obama! A Nation Awaits Your Healing Touch

Aug 25, 2008 - 2:28 am 115. wretchard:

Julio, I treasure the wisdom that drips from your erudite lips. I will keep it on display in imperishable pixels as evidence of the “stay on the reservation” mentality that characterizes those who think they are enlightened.

Aug 25, 2008 - 2:30 am 116. fedya:

@Wretchard:
You de Man!, man.

Aug 25, 2008 - 2:43 am 117. buddy larsen:

That’s not the same McCain that’s running for president, is it?

Aug 25, 2008 - 2:45 am 118. fedya:

@buddy:

When the hell are you gonna get some frikkin sleep, dude? The entire Pissy Correct-osphere is gettin they beautifullnesses, and you is still watchin’ dis heah blogge? Waddaya think this is, Freedom’s birght line of Defense?

I have to admit, I do.

Aug 25, 2008 - 2:56 am 119. buddy larsen:

“Obama’s healing touch” –remember, it’s all about policy, and Obama’s healing touch looks just like Jimmy Carter’s healing touch –which another two years of & we’d've had 100% unemployment, 100% interest rates, and 100% inflation. Hey, 100%, that’s PURE, baby!

Aug 25, 2008 - 3:00 am 120. fedya:

“bright line”

Aug 25, 2008 - 3:01 am 121. Ledger:

I think I have the wrong ship. The Dallas is a Coast Guard cutter Dallas NOT a submarine. There is a lot less fire power associated with a Coast Guard cutter.

“The Coast Guard cutter Dallas entered the Dardanelles; as a giant crane unloaded 55 tons of aid from the USS McFaul for refugees in Batumi, 80 kilometers (50 miles) south of another port, Poti, where Russian troops are still present.”

See: Eaglespeak
http://www.eaglespeak.us/2008/08/coast-guard-cutter-dalls-joins-uss.html

“USS Dallas returned to port this week, you might be thinking of Jacksonville… or any number of other unnamed underwater assets…”

-Galrahn 08.25.08 – 12:44 am

[People notice fresh paint on Russian ship]

“Ken, the flawless paint is interesting to me as well. If fresh it could possibly reinforce the story of a small fire breaking out on the Moskva during their encounter with the Georgian PBs, or they just wanted her looking good for the photo-op.”

-Moose 08.24.08 – 11:17 pm

See comments:
http://www.haloscan.com/comments/galrahn/1119907458167217155/

Aug 25, 2008 - 3:04 am 122. fedya:

“Pure” AND “Poor” Putie, wannabe-Czar! Someday, folks won’t have to fight for simple freedom to work for themseffs. We ain’t got there yet, eh?

Imitate THAT, Russkie-Prog dips!

Aug 25, 2008 - 3:05 am 123. buddy larsen:

I’m trying to flip over, fedya –i got behinder & behinder on bedtime over the last week or two and now i gotta do an all nighter to get back in sink –er, synch. watching the Asian mkts thru Sunday nite is a window into the coming week, too, so there’s that. Asians did beautifully –great sign, this first mkt day post-Olympics was set up as a bellwether. see, European growth is rolling over a little, and if Asia follows suit, which it could, if central banks decide to fight the inflation instead of maintaining the growth, then USA exports –already inordinately holding up the dollar –will fall off right at the worst of this Fannie & Freddie crisis, which over the weekend decayed to about 60 bbl and counting. –i’ve never ever seen so many things hooked together, war, money, politics, geopolitics, morale, all under concentrated attack, all interwined as never before, and all at or near crisis points. SLEEP? are you CRAZY man?

Aug 25, 2008 - 3:19 am 124. buddy larsen:

”Someday, folks won’t have to fight for simple freedom to work for themseffs. We ain’t got there yet, eh?”

–beautifully said, man –

Aug 25, 2008 - 3:28 am 125. cedarford:

bobal:
I think that if the Russians really wanted to sink our boats in the Black Sea they could do so in about 1/2 hour. That being so, there’s no sense to worry about.

Pretty true. Choosing from either their missile batteries or land-based Air Wings. Wouldn’t even have to put their Navy in play.

Defense Secretary Gates was most reassuring last week, when he said we have spent 60 years of hard work ensuring that Russians and Americans do not end up killing one another in major conflict, and he has no plans to change that situation. And right now, American public support for starting new wars is virtually nill outside the remnant neocons and their band of bootlickers like Samford, Fred, and the cowardly Gary Rosen.

No Pakistan. No Iran. No war with Russia over areas traditionally within it’s sphere – which, BTW, Russian diplomats agree Catholic Poland, countries of the former Austro-hungarian Empire, and Hanseatic League are not Russia’s backyard. Though they don’t want NATO or new weapons on their doorstep anymore that we want China or Russia having defense treaties and significant military forces inside Mexico, Venezuela, Cuba, or the Canal Zone.

Bush fires up another war, without Congressional consultation and buy-in from leadership of both Parties – Congress fires up impeachment proceedings. Which Constitutional scholars believe nullifies his pardon power once proceedings start in the House.

===================
Old Salt – As for the Russian response to IED’s, if the Georgian’s care more about that then they do freedom, they might as name every new Georgian baby girl “Putin’s Whore…

More saber-rattling drivel. For 40 years, the people of Eastern Europe cared a lot about freedom, but justly realized the futility of violent insurrection via ambushing secret police, local military draftees under communist gov’t control, or Red Army units.

Aug 25, 2008 - 3:48 am 126. buddy larsen:

fannie & freddie, old depression era mortgage brokers, have been Democratic party fortresses all along. The last few years have seen some humongous –i mean humongous –accounting frauds inside them –frauds which never really hit the news due to the entities being politically-protected by the left’s control of the news. various chiefs have been fired for absolutely outrageous chicanery, and have still walked away with 20 million dollar bonuses, and hardly a wee peep in the press. now here they are, sinking fast and under the green visors at Treasury this very minute, in emergency meetings. Stock down to more or less call options on the economy, and mere hours or maybe a few months if house prices this morning seem to be improving second derivatives, from being nationalized –meaning the 9.5 trillion total obligation passes to the taxpayer, effectively doubling the national debt at a fell swoop. Gold, oil, and critically, open market treasury bond rates, ought under this quality of pressure be much higher –much higher –than they are. what’s holding them down –and holding down the inflation adjustments on tranfer payments –is probably central bank intervention in the currency markets –the free world is buying dollars to keep the main engine of the world economy from falling into a bad-ass recession. this shit is minute by minute –incredible –but ANYWAY, my point was going to be, before i ran off that word torrent, NOT a WORD of this is going to be broached at the Democratic Convention in Denver –not a word will be said about America tightening up its gone-sloppy ways before we just melt down or blow up –the whole thing will be packaged as “Obama, the healing toucher, will change all things”.

So, point, we have a few weeks or months maybe, to get this thing back on track, or we will likely have our first socialist/pacifist government, and very very likely a world depression, complete with every smoot-hawley trapping the vengeful left can stick on to it, and all the consequences thereof, as before: “beggar thy neighbor” and –big war, like before, in the 30s.

So anyway, all this wild weird new financial volatility –”dark pools” of anonymous global hedge money alternately pumping and dumping and stampeding the commodity mkts –suddenly right into this giant system-order reset, what should come storming out of the mountains on the edge of our minds but the Russian 58th Tank Army ?

so, there’s some things to think about –and watch for.

Aug 25, 2008 - 4:04 am 127. wretchard:

Buddy,

Go with the analysis. If a meltdown is coming, and hence Obama, what does a canny man do to turn it to account?

Aug 25, 2008 - 4:08 am 128. Rune:

The West is playing a stupid and dangerous – and worse – unnecessary game. That Kosovo would lead to conflict in South Ossetia should have come to the surprise to no one. A push for NATO integration with Ukraine is pushing the whole nation towards disintegration. NATO is deeply unpopular in the majority of the country and especially in the East and on Crim. Just the though of hosting a Russia hostile NATO fleet in Sevastopol where the majority of the population is Russians and Russian flags are flow everywhere (you are more likely to find a hammer and sickle than a Ukrainian flag – even the government build flies the Russian flag). It’s stupid. It’s not going to happen. The country would be torn apart before that.

And even should Georgia or Ukraine be NATO members it would only lead to further undermining of the organisation. How many NATO nations do you think would have favoured going to war with Russia over Georgia’s (which is about as democratic as Iran) right to suppress the native Ossetian population? The fact is that The West made the bed with the unlawful one-handed recognition of Kosovo independence. Now we must live with the consequences. It’s clear that the Ossetians and Georgians can never again live together in peace. It just won’t happen. The only realistic way forward now, is to accept their independence or inclusion in the Russian Federation.

Russian didn’t have to be an enemy. We are creating this enemy ourselves. And quite unnecessarily so. US naval ships in The Black Sea? How goddamn stupid can you get? But I’m sure the USA won’t object to Russian submarines cruising off Los Angeles or missiles put up in Cuba/Venezuela or Kaliningrad. Or the Russians supplying high tech weaponry to Iran or Sudan like you do to Georgia.

Aug 25, 2008 - 4:37 am 129. buddy larsen:

most likely, when everyone gets to the edge and stares into the abyss for awhile –and by ‘everyone’ i mean everyone from global financiers to gov’t officials to politicians to central bankers to combined chiefs of staffs to heads of state and their moms & wives & kids –it’ll be back-off time, and we’ll all pitch in and rewind the madness. i haven’t been selling –in fact i’ve been buying –tho it’s getting painful. hopefully, we’ll all look around at what is meaningful to us, and back off all this avalanche of whatever it is that has piled onto the world plate all this race and ethnicity and grab-whatcha-can regression-to-19th century. But –the Russians need to get outta Georgia. That invasion is what has amped a standard bubble popping into a pre-condition for a run on global markets –and a loss of all the valuation gains the world has built up since the millenial roll-over –and that, as the best of outcomes.

Aug 25, 2008 - 4:40 am 130. Bob Murphy:

Jeez, all that because of a pic, moonbat?
That’s probably why he signed himself Wretchard and kept this blog focused on ideas and facts for years without introducing distractions like photos and gratuitous ego things for easily distracted projection machines like you. To avoid that kind of crap generalisation.
You be looking at last names and making stupid assumptions.
Has it occurred to you Rosita that “La Raza” and related useful idiots would like to recreate the dysfunctional mess in the US that they fled south of the border? If that happens and we quit providing social benefits and a functional economy where do you go then?

Aug 25, 2008 - 4:56 am 131. Manny C:

Just when I thought this would be one of the most educational comments page I’ve read for a long time, I hit cedarwood’s bile and Juliios McCain’s incoherent babbling (why not post entirely in spanish? Most would much prefer that. Namely, cause we don’t give a rat’s tail what you have to say).

But the record be shown: RWE is wrong and Cedarface is right. Georgia shares no border with Iran.

Aug 25, 2008 - 5:15 am 132. buddy larsen:

wretchard, consumer staple giants –the sector including Procter & Gamble, Kimberley-Clark, Johnson & Johnson, the whole sector, classically, in hard times. they sell needful things, and Obama’s tax plan is a giant transfer from supply-side to consumption. the country will basically consume itself for awhile, until it wakes up and the pendulum turns. thing is, these stocks have already had a strong run up –so, you’d be buying ‘em high –not to say they don’t go higher still –but –gotta pay attention.

and i like Boone Picken’s ideas too –natgas is abundant, cheap, and ours. we have to convert to CNG (compressed natural gas) for transport –i’ll send along some info –i’m buying Cowboy Luck Never Ends –my mnemonic for Boone’s CLNE (symbol) Clean Energy Co. –it too is up tho –maybe bid 12 and let it sit, wait for it to come in. if it doesn’t, hell it’ll be a double in a few years if not sooner. If you’re not trading, if holding long term, get some now. not over 5 or 10% of your total, tho –politically, if drilling opens up, perception of greater future supply will create a ‘market risk’ (not necessarily fundamental but price is price) in the short term –in which case that’s when you buy more. anyhoo, theme imo should be “natural resources that get used up”. but watch a hard left DC –it could chavez ya and leave ya bust.

Aug 25, 2008 - 5:18 am 133. buddy larsen:

Rune, if Kosovo-partition was wrong, then doesn’t that make Georgia partition wrong too? And why does the clock start on Kosovo? Why not a nice round 1940, when Nazi ally Russia grabbed eastern Poland and the Baltic triplets? nah –Kosovo is diplomatic cover –Russia held a dozen east European states and 100 million people against their wills from 1945 to 1992, and Kosovo was just a few years later. i’m not arguing with your other points about war danger and all –that’s what should be front & center –but, please, don’t accept that cover –it forms a weak basis for moving forward.

Aug 25, 2008 - 5:43 am 134. Teresita:

Rune: But I’m sure the USA won’t object to Russian submarines cruising off Los Angeles

We’d love to know there’s Russian subs cruising off Los Angeles, or anywhere else for that matter. It’s not a question of where they sail, but whether they are tracked by our torpedo attack boats.

Aug 25, 2008 - 6:22 am 135. Teresita:

Russia is an economic nightmare in slow motion. Due to poor health care and widespread alcoholism, its population is declining by 500,000 a year — a trend that’s expected to accelerate in coming years. Inflation is revving up again, after declining for several years, and now is growing at about a 14% yearly rate — and rising.

Moreover, data from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development show that, despite the oil-fed boom, Russia’s GDP per capita is just 2% above where it was when the Berlin Wall fell.

That means, essentially, there has been no growth at all for 20 years. Of the 15 former Soviet republics that got their freedom after the collapse of communism, 11 are growing faster than Russia.

This is Russia’s big vulnerability under Putin. With oil prices falling, Russia’s reserves will come under more pressure — and the import boom that has kept the new class of Russian oligarchs happy will come to a screeching halt.

This year, foreign investment is expected to fall for the first time in six years — just as lower oil prices kick in. Russia could be in real trouble, and it couldn’t happen to a nicer regime.

Aug 25, 2008 - 6:36 am 136. Charles:

Saw Cramer (thestreet.coma) on the tube make the same points as Buddy about fannie & freddie.

A lot of people I’ve seen on the yahoo stock boards — don’t like Cramer–likely because they’ve taken his stock picks without adopting his methodology–& got burned. I like the guy. He has a little picture of Lenin in the background that he likes to camp on. He looks remarkably like lenin — only not quite so dour. I don’t take his stock picks or use his methodology.

Cramer has also said that fannie & freddie should be nationalized. I don’t recall that he mentioned this would instantly double the size of the national debt.

I have noticed that the last time he got really emotional was an august or two ago when he said that interest rates needed to fall and fall fast. Not more than a couple weeks later that’s just what happened.

Cramer is an old Harvard guy and likely knows similar such at the Fed. Cramer also well connected in the industry. At the very least he reflects a section of democratic party educated opinion on money matters.

He joins a growing chorus that I’ve seen of market insiders who say that financials have not completed their meltdown. Nor has the US stock market.

imho the next direction for the US stock market is down.

Aug 25, 2008 - 6:59 am 137. Whitehall:

Buddy,

Ever hear of California’s proposition 10? We’re supposed to tax ourselves to buy some of us CNG-fueled cars and truck and for home refueling stations. (Plus lots of other goodies.)

Where will California be getting an increasing amount of its natural gas from? Russia, via a LNG terminal in Mexico.

North American gas production has peaked although resumption of offshore drilling will give it a shot before it too fades.

No magic bullet there.

Aug 25, 2008 - 7:27 am 138. Rune:

Buddy: It’s not a matter of right or wrong. It’s a matter of precedence. Kosovo set a precedence, which now cannot be ignored. And you seem to be mistaking Russia for The Soviet Union.

Teresita: But you certainly didn’t like the idea of Soviet nukes on Cuba. Or the idea of Russian helping the Iranian nuclear program along. Lately the Israelis have been bickering about Russians selling advanced anti-aircraft systems to the Iranians. I’m sure they’re not too keen on the idea of Russian naval base in Syria either. etc. The West and Russia have much more to gain from cooperation. NATO benefits greatly from Russian cooperation in Afghanistan too. Russia doesn’t want a return to the Cold War. There’s really no reason for all this animosity. It helps nobody. Russian isn’t the real enemy. China is the great challenge of the 21st century. But it is the West, which is pushing for confrontation. Russia could be an ally if we play it right. Else they’ll turn to China.

And I’m thinking you too mistake Russia for The Soviet Union. Russian GDP in 2007 is almost three times what it was in 1990. But numbers are wonderful little critters. You can massage them into almost anything you want. But I’m sure if you look at the figures behind the Russian economic growth, you’ll see stagnation and decline throughout the 90’s followed by a steady healthy growth around 7-9% since around 2000 (> 8% in 2007). And of course unlike other countries, which shall remain unnamed, it’s not heavily in debt. And falling oil prices? I guess you can get used to almost anything. Even oil prices at >114$/bbl. That’s not to say there are not great problems in Russia. We should be helping the overcome them, instead of pushing for confrontation.

Aug 25, 2008 - 7:35 am 139. exhelodrvr:

Don’t be so impressed with the capabilities of the Aegis platform that you think it can control that region by itself. It is the best system in the world, but there is only one in that area, operating in relatively restricted waters, with a limited number of missiles, and facing Russian submarine, surface ship, land-based air, and land-based surface-to-surface missiles.

Aug 25, 2008 - 8:05 am 140. slade:

Buddy – close to how I see it (I joke – amateur approving of professional) but the average person sees this smorgasbord of corruption, intent, mistakes, and misjudgments in an ever-shifting kaleidoscope of markets, politics, rhetoric, and reality. Turning into major league mess.

RE Freddie/Fannie. My take is that the GSE’s bought the bad (sub-prime) debt rather than directly generate it. Private mortgage entities used government to “socialize the losses.” The accounting mismanagement happened under bipartisan watch, coming to a head under Bush who initiated prosecution of Enron, WorldCom et al.

Aug 25, 2008 - 8:06 am 141. 2x4:

@rune:

And you seem to be mistaking Russia for The Soviet Union.

Grunts like a bear, walks like a bear. Itsa bear!

Russia could be an ally if we play it right.

“…just lower your trousers and bend over. Friends?”

And I’m thinking you too mistake Russia for The Soviet Union.

Actually, if you were listening to Russian officials, from politicians to generals, you’d be in a conundrum how to tell the difference.

That’s not to say there are not great problems in Russia. We should be helping the overcome them, instead of pushing for confrontation.

Once again, listen to Russian political and military critters. They seem to be keen on convincing everyone that no good deed goes unpunished.

Aug 25, 2008 - 8:11 am 142. John Samford:

Fedya, Open source;

http://www.mda.mil/mdalink/pdf/06news0018.pdf

The System is more then just a radar set. You need the SM-3 (Standard Missile model 3) and a software upgrade to the Computer that ties the radar and the SM-3 together. AND the VLS.

What is important about the Tico’s that gets over looked is the VLS. 122 ‘cells’ in the Tico. I think the Burks have 92, but I’m not sure about that.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arleigh_Burke_class_destroyer

90, oh well. Anyway the SM-3 is very expensive so even the ships with the software upgrade only carry half a dozen under normal circumstances. Although load outs can be changed if there is enough advanced warning.
I have no idea if Production on the SM-3 has gotten enough built to put more then 6 on a ship.
What makes the SM-3 so tough it’s it acceleration. It pulls enough G’s going straight up that boost phase kills are possible. That means it doesn’t matter how many warheads the bus has or what sort of pen-aids. They ALL die together with a boost phase kill.
As far as any one SM2 getting a kill on any one short-range millisle/aircraft, it is almost impossible to say. Too many variables. That is why they shoot in pairs. Or triplets, depending on what the computer thinks is best.
Things happen to fast for a human to be in the loop. Once the system is turned on, it shoots at what it sees as the most dangerous target first. IIRC, default is shoot, shoot look. It punps out two missiles, looks to see if they are good birds and tracking and if not repeats the cycle.

That is why you have to have a VLS and fast computer to make it work. In peacetime, I think there is a 2 sec delay between launches, but in war time it could be MUCH less.

While I’m sure the KGB (GRU?) knows which Ships have received the software upgrade, it is NOT open source. I’m not a flaming liberal, so if I did know anything and said something, FBI would be at my door pretty soon.
Now if I worked for the N.Y. Times and had an upside down flag pin on my lapel, I could publish a list AND the code for the software and the FBI would only be interested in protecting my Pultzier.

Aug 25, 2008 - 8:16 am 143. Jay:

The US Navy has had some serious problems during the last ten years. The carrier admirals still control the budget process. Our subs are too big to operate effectively in shallow water environments. Lockheed Martin has become a virtual monopoly for many of our weapon systems. There had been serious corruption in the purchasing system of DOD.
Meanwhile our credit system is broke and the root causes are due to political corruption of our political class.
I have been told by a friend that the University of Arizona is nearly broke. A number of California counties are heading for the financial tank.
Good times are coming to an end. Read some financial history for guidance.

Aug 25, 2008 - 8:21 am 144. Gary Rosen:

“cowardly Gary Rosen”

C-fudd, you still haven’t apologized for your slur on my brother’s military service. He volunteered for the Marines at the height of the Vietnam War even though he had a draft exemption, unlike your idol cowardly Pat Buchanan who avoided the military.

Aug 25, 2008 - 8:28 am 145. coisty:

And why does the clock start on Kosovo? Why not a nice round 1940, when Nazi ally Russia grabbed eastern Poland and the Baltic triplets?

Uh, buddy, we had these things called WW2 and the Cold War! After the Cold War all the borders of former Soviet and Yugoslav Republics (not regions within Republics) were accepted by the international community as valid borders for breakaway states.

By rejecting the Helsinki agreement on borders the US tore up the post-CW consensus. For 16 years Russia has not annexed or recognised Abkhazia or SO. In fact it actually had sanctions against the former right up until March of this year after the US recognised Kosovo’s independence. Throughout the Kosovo talks for the last year and a bit Russia has repeatedly warned the US, publicly and privately, that independence for Kosovo would change everything.

(Hey, buddy, just because CNN and Fox News doesn’t cover a story until trouble breaks out doesn’t mean the rest of the world is unaware of events unfolding. The conflict most certainly did not begin with Russian troops marching into Georgia as the US MSM would have us believe).

Aug 25, 2008 - 8:30 am 146. Rune:

“…just lower your trousers and bend over. Friends?”

Oh. You are going to go with that line, are you? I’m Danish. And that’s what the liberals have been crying about since we send troops to Iraq and Afghanistan. Being Bush’s lapdog. America’s bitch. yap yap. You name it. But I guess if you count all international cooperation as taking it up the ass, then you’re right. As are all the liberal moonbats.

Btw. Just today another Danish soldier was killed in Afghanistan. Denmark has the highest number of killed soldiers compared to population size. And yet nobody is talking about withdrawing. Guess we must really like being America’s bitch up here.

Aug 25, 2008 - 8:34 am 147. 2x4:

The conflict most certainly did not begin with Russian troops marching into Georgia as the US MSM would have us believe

Correct. It was preceded by a long string of provocations by Ossetian separatists, with Russia’s one eye closed and the other on a watch that her forces are ready to join the fray at the drop of a hat.

Funny thing… the main Russian army critter just announced that Georgians are poised to sabotage Georgian infrastructure. Yea, you read that correct.

They would use this switcheroo game even if it is so blatantly transparent. And people like you would gobble it up hook, line and sinker.

Aug 25, 2008 - 8:44 am 148. coisty:

And you seem to be mistaking Russia for The Soviet Union.

So true. Russian was merely the common language. There was an unjust Russification process in the Baltics but for the most part it’s preposterous to equate the USSR with Russians.

From the ethnic make-up of the Cheka in the early days to the non-Russians who headed the Communist Party from 1924 until about 1984 other nationalities that now claim to have been anti-Soviet all along were overrepresented among the Soviet ruling class. Solzhenitsyn also wrote of Russian prisoners in the Gulag with non-Russian camp commanders.

Aug 25, 2008 - 8:47 am 149. 2x4:

Well, Rune, Europe was Danish (Viking) bitch about 1000 years ago. I guess it’s some form of karma.

Denmark is a member of NATO, so some dues are to be paid. IF you prefer to be rather a Russian bitch than US bitch, well, you’d have to convince your fellow citizens, I guess.

Aug 25, 2008 - 8:56 am 150. 2x4:

Coisty, I would normally say “don’t watch mouth, watch hands”.

But in this case, the rhetoric coming out of Kremlin is so uncannily resembling the noises coming out during the soviet era, that one has to conclude the soviet imperialism was replaced by Russian imperialism, which was always present underneath its more “international” facade.

Aug 25, 2008 - 9:07 am 151. NahnCee:

“I have been told by a friend that the University of Arizona is nearly broke. A number of California counties are heading for the financial tank.”

I thought everyone was in agreement that a big part of America’s current problems are the Marxists who have taken over our education systems, both higher and lower. Therefore, if a middle-ranking university is in financial trouble, isn’t that a Good Thing and a portent of things to come, education-wise? I think the end-goal should be that our universities end up in the same garbage-pile as our newspapers and other dinosaur media (and Hollywood movies, too).

As for California going broke, just remember that California is a heavily blue state and since when has California NOT been going broke? I wonder how rich we’d be in Los Angeles if we didn’t have to pay for a free ride for so damned many Mexicans.

As for Rune, you have no vote about anything. You and yours are contributing not money nor bullets nor boots, so just shut the hell up and slink back to your socialist little igloo while your betters figure out what to do about the mess you have helped to create through laziness, inattention and anti-Americanism … again.

Aug 25, 2008 - 9:16 am 152. bobal:

I wonder how rich we’d be in Los Angeles if we didn’t have to pay for a free ride for so damned many Mexicans.

Ain’t that the truth. (By the way, I was reading in Bill Bryson’s book “The Mother Tongue” that ain’t is a perfectly good use of the language most grammarians say, and, you can go ahead and split your infinitives)

It was the unwisdom of the courts that started this free ride crap, ruling that if they are here, we got to educate them, etc. I believe we are probably the only country in the world to have such a policy.

Aug 25, 2008 - 9:26 am 153. DanM:

Umm NahnCee..

Denmark is one of the good ones….

Aug 25, 2008 - 9:41 am 154. OldSalt:

“More saber-rattling drivel. For 40 years, the people of Eastern Europe cared a lot about freedom, but justly realized the futility of violent insurrection via ambushing secret police, local military draftees under communist gov’t control, or Red Army units.” CF

I haven’t responded to the shills like CF because it just encourages them. But let’s just take a looky here. He takes the Russian line (like always) that Georgia will willingly just become a rump state of the old Sov empire.

Today Eastern Europe is free, Georgia was flouishing economically, there were no longer state controlled markets (and I’m talking about the super-markets, that had long lines and no edible food), and this guy really thinks that Georgians will roll over and play dead? Babies have been born in Georgia who have know nothing but freedom, and are old enough to fight. It’s not pre-1989 anymore. The genie of freedom is out of the bottle. I don’t see Georgian’s rolling over and asking the Russian’s “plus use my daughter, abuse my wife, and enslave my son….PLEASE ..”. The Georgian’s know that the Russians will respond as they always have. They’ll wipe out whole towns, shell cities, kill men, woman, and children wantonly, and then blame the “rebels”.

We shall see. I may rattle my sabre, but I speak more truth than CF, and I probably have a little more experience with the real world than he/she does.

Off-topic: I was thinking last night about the logistics of setting IED’s. The Al-Qaeda 2K pound variety were prepared in warehouses and trucked to the location, because the US didn’t interfere with commerce in Iraq (i.e. the US was pro-Iraq). The Russians will stop and blow up every vehicle moving. So, it won’t be as easy for the Georgians to complete their sapper missions, and they aren’t looking for a 72 virgin suicide, but I’ll bet they’ll be a whole lot more effective in the long run. They’ve had better training. It’ll probably start happening with the first snow, when Russian mobility and air power advantages are somewhat neutralized, and the Bear is already struggling with logistics.

Aug 25, 2008 - 9:45 am 155. Engineer:

Question on the 21 day rule – as I read the entry in Wikipedia (admittedly not authoritative) I had the impression that the 21 days is ‘in the straits’, not in the Black Sea itself. In other words, someone couldn’t anchor the same ship there and permanently block it; only 21 days in the straits would be allowed for a single ship. If that’s the case, then once our ships are there they could stay indefinitely (presuming logistics, of course).

Aug 25, 2008 - 9:46 am 156. OldSalt:

“…just lower your trousers and bend over. Friends?”… “Oh. You are going to go with that line, are you? I’m Danish.”

Well…there ya go.

“Btw. Just today another Danish soldier was killed in Afghanistan. Denmark has the highest number of killed soldiers compared to population size. And yet nobody is talking about withdrawing. Guess we must really like being America’s bitch up here.”

American’s are dying for America, and Danes are dying for Denmark. The price of freedom is a lot higher than the fees Denmark has paid to date.

We Americans do appreciate the service of our allies, in pursuit of freedom. However, we’ve pretty much shouldered that load for a long, long time. And, in dealing with our Soldiers and Marines, we don’t see them as “them”. They are individuals, every son, father, brother, and yeah, some daughters too. You can’t begin to appreciate the grief true American patriots experience for every one of these kids killed or maimed. I’m on THOSE front lines neat Camp Pendleton, CA. My family has had two to three dozen Marines in our home in the past 12 months.

I’d go back into uniform in a split second if called, and send my 20 year old son as well, to defend freedom, even in places like Iraq and Georgia. I believe that projecting power forward offensively is a better idea for victory than defending freedom as bombs explode in American cities.

Danes can be anyone’s “bitches”, but I expect that your men in uniform don’t see it quite that way. I doubt that you’re the sort of Dane to put on a uniform and go in harms way, are you? Nuff said.

Aug 25, 2008 - 9:56 am 157. 2x4:

DanM, NahnCee was not talking about Denmark, rather about a certain segment of it.

Aug 25, 2008 - 9:57 am 158. DanM:

2×4 & NahnCee,

If so – ahh excuse prease…

Don’t know Rune’s politics with one post read… Let me bait the hook here. Never mind. It seems that OldSalt covers it nicely. Seems I have to stop this work thing. It gets in the way of commenting.

Aug 25, 2008 - 10:06 am 159. John Samford:

Rune,
“It’s not a matter of right or wrong. It’s a matter of precedence. Kosovo set a precedence.”

It DID NOT! The precedence is Chechnya. The Russian’s WANT Kosovo to be the precedence, but there are to many dissimilar points.
Kosovo AND Serbia were part of Yugoslavia, the Serbs had NO legal or moral claim to Kosovo. When Yugoslavia broke up, they took Kosovo because they were stronger. They weren’t strong enough to keep it.
The Ossetia issue was settled by treaty in 1991 (IIRC). Russia got the north, Georgia the South. Just as Chechnya was legally part of Russia by treaty.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ossetia

{snipped}
“the international community refuses to recognize South Ossetia as an independent country and considers the area part of Georgia.”
So by what passes for Law in international affairs, Russia is wrong. About Kosovo AND South Ossetia. So the precedence is that a strong state can rob and rape a weaker state.
As an American, I’m OK with that, so long as America is the strongest state. If I was a Russian, I would be a little nervous about that, since China is elbow deep in people and Siberia is almost empty of them.
So the precedence is that China, being stronger then Russia can take what ever Russian land it needs to make room for it’s people.
I may be confused, but haven’t Russians been down that road before? I vaguely recall some little dude with a funny ’stash screaming about ‘lebenderaum’ or something like that. My German worse then sucks.

As a sort of FNG that scrolls C-4, I have to ask, Has it ever posted a link supporting ANY of it’s claims?
Here is a link to it’s techniques;

http://www.orange-papers.org/orange-propaganda.html

“Under capitalism, man exploits man. Under communism, it’s just the opposite.”
John Kenneth Galbraith
US (Canadian-born) administrator & economist (1908 – 2006)

Aug 25, 2008 - 10:26 am 160. 2x4:

VDH: Blame Everyone But Russia

Aug 25, 2008 - 10:44 am 161. Rune:

2×4: Well, Rune, Europe was Danish (Viking) bitch about 1000 years ago. I guess it’s some form of karma.

- Vikings? This is all getting rather silly. What is it you are trying to say? It appears you agree with the liberals, that USAs European allies are best described as lapdogs?

NahnCee:As for Rune, you have no vote about anything. You and yours are contributing not money nor bullets nor boots, so just shut the hell up and slink back to your socialist little igloo while your betters figure out what to do about the mess you have helped to create through laziness, inattention and anti-Americanism … again.

- it hardly merits a reply. But Denmark has probably been the most steadfast ally of USA (and Israel for that matter) in Western Europe and we have been in Iraq and Afghanistan from the start. Nice to see it is being noticed and appreciated. If you go back in Belmont’s archives on fallback and blogspot, you’ll find that I have personally backed USA up far back, so you’ll excuse me if I go easy on your anti-Americanism. Or perhaps you are only being anti-Danish? … again

OldSalt:
You can’t begin to appreciate the grief true American patriots experience for every one of these kids killed or maimed.

- Why on Earth would you think that? You don’t think Danes love their children, brothers, fathers or sons? There are killed Danes whom have been brought home in coffins, both from Iraq and Afghanistan. I have a friend who no more than two months ago was almost killed, was grievously hurt and who will be crippled for life. As I just wrote, of all your allies in Afghanistan Denmark has suffered the highest number of casualties – because Denmark unlike some other nations insist troops are stationed where there is the greatest need of them. In the south. It’s rather insulting to say we shouldn’t feel every much as bad for those of ours dead or harmed as you do for yours.

OldSalt:
Danes can be anyone’s “bitches”, but I expect that your men in uniform don’t see it quite that way. I doubt that you’re the sort of Dane to put on a uniform and go in harms way, are you? Nuff said.

Lets start by affirming that you know as little of me as I want to know of you. Nuff said. And if this is the sort of talk, which passes as debate Belmonts’ these days – how far the mighty has fallen since last I was here. Shrill ad-hominens and insults at the smallest not tooing the line. If your case is as good as you seem to believe, you should be able to defend it without stooping to such. Or perhaps you resort to such because you fail at arguments?

Aug 25, 2008 - 10:56 am 162. Whitehall:

Does the US even have any remaining naval guns afloat larger than 5 inches?

Aug 25, 2008 - 10:59 am 163. buddy larsen:

Russia was flat broke and defaulted on its bonds ten years ago. From there, due not only to natural resource export boom but also to a brand new and vastly simplified straight tax system, a flat tax set @ 12%, the middle class is growing fast, with almost no consumer debt, and the gov’t now has the third largest foreign currency reserves in the world, @ $600 bbl. The monstrous social & demographic pathologies wrought by the Communist party are still there but are turning. The population loves Putin, as he has delivered progress against their problems and is willing to accept the consequences of his actions. There’s a big wave of nationalism flowing thru the people, and they’re said to be firmly expansionist in regards to the old borders, and follwing a to-them benign dictator suits them just fine, given the close-in past.

That’s what we’re looking at, folks. Not a dying, flailing, hollow shell with a rump army blindly knocking things over, but more of a wrench which fits perfectly over the west’s nuts.

Sans the inscrutable far eastern colossus, the USA military is its only equivalent, and the USA military is funded by the folks occupying the gov’t buildings in Washington DC, bless their little pea-pickin’ hearts, while the Russian machine is funded more or less for free, by money that just flows out of the ground.

And now along comes Obama. Obama to complement the geopolitical acumen of Nancy and Harry, and the powers that run them.

Dunno what I’m trying to say –except write your reps an ink on paper letter and tell them that you want an across the board 10% cut in all spending except defense –and you want that raised 10%. Like, now.

Aug 25, 2008 - 11:03 am 164. NahnCee:

“DanM, NahnCee was not talking about Denmark, rather about a certain segment of it.”

A colleague just came back from spending several months in Norway on a project. I asked her if she’d met any rich Vikings, and she chuckle-snorted and said “no”. She looked around, lowered her voice and said, “They try to act like everyone is EQUAL.” I said, “Communism?” And she said, “Yes. So of course, no one special or rich.”

Which makes me scrunch up and think because here in America, WE try to act like everyone is equal, too. Could Norway’s definition of “equal” be that Japanese concept of pounding the upstanding nail down into the board so there are no stars or giants.

While America’s definition of “equal” is everyone starting from the same place with the same benefits and the same loads and then going to where-ever intelligence, flexibility and drive can take you.

Which is why it’s so difficult to listen to a nonentity like Rune lecturing about what he has absolutely no concept … except he’s wrong from the get-go, so why bother to listen.

Aug 25, 2008 - 11:11 am 165. Rune:

NahnCee:
nonentity like Rune

Impressive. really impressive. emm.. you do know that Norway and Denmark are two different countries? Just saying. Anyway. Anytime you are ready to go back and discuss the matter, rather than behaving like a spoiled brat throwing insults around, do post something.

Aug 25, 2008 - 11:17 am 166. bobal:

Russian isn’t the real enemy. China is the great challenge of the 21st century.

I think that’s right and I wish the
Russians would see it that way too. Instead of enabling Iran, invading Georgia and sundry other matters, they ought to be making nice with us.

Aug 25, 2008 - 11:20 am 167. buddy larsen:

Denmark is fighting –remember the cartoon war –Denmark lost embassies over that and never backed down –and it was a major turn in European dealing with jihad. And it’s a small country, there’s only a few million Danes –their relative contribution is actually pretty big. Also, they spell my name right. Not like them Swedes, who can’t spell, nor vote right in Minnesota.

Aug 25, 2008 - 11:22 am 168. Shivermetimbers:

Rune

Denmark was an early supporter of the US. One of the first to make loans to the fledgling country during the War for Independence, and recognizing her as a Country. She has been a friend since the beginning.

Thanks

Aug 25, 2008 - 11:22 am 169. fedya:

@Rune:
You jumped in here calling people and the USA “stupid”. Personally, I think the point about Kosovo has merit, and the Clintonistas that foisted that destabilizing move on the world were wrong to do so.

That in no way substantiates Russia’s opportunism over the fact, as it is reasonable to presume there is no lack of excuses in their magic sacks.

And you do seem to be overly-impressed by some, what?, metaphysical? status for Russia, which might, it seems at first blush, to have more to do with panic and fear at this present unraveling of the peace than with any heartfelt agreement that their position is really moral OR justified, right?

I would not agree that the descendents of Viking colonies on the River Don presently have any “right” whatsoever to meddle in the Caucasus or Central Asia–neither the Persians. And, even though the Turkic peoples, the Huns and the Mongols who so terribly abused Russia originated in Central Asia, none has a “right” to Kosovo/Serbia, or Georgia/trans-Caucasus, or the Silk Road from Baku to Urumqi.

What is “right” about an American defense of Georgia ultimately reduces to guaranteeing maximum freedom of trade and maximum freedom of association for the entire globe. Denmark needs freedom of the seas as much as Georgia does, so I would ask you to reconsider calling us “stupid”.

Aug 25, 2008 - 11:30 am 170. exhelodrvr:

Rune,
Not being familiar with your views from previous posts, it was hard to tell if you were making a complaint about Denmark being involved in Iraq/Afghanistan, or making a complaint that Denmark’s involvement and sacrifices (especially when compared to the rest of Europe) were not being appropriately recognized.

Aug 25, 2008 - 11:41 am 171. Clob:

All this arm chair admiraling, you guys are joking right?

bill Bradley’s point is that every precaution has been taken to make sure nothing does happen. I would not be surprised if the USN fought tooth and nail to NOT send their ships into the baltic. Probably the only reason the flagship is there is so that previously planned events can take place, and oh yeah, drop off a few tons of diapers etc while they are there.

Aug 25, 2008 - 11:42 am 172. buddy larsen:

Rune, it’s not Denmark, it’s the EU that is swimming into focus with a lot of us over here. Like, now with the Rus invasion, it ought to be crystal clear that a western presence in Iraq is the only thing standing in the way of a Persian Gulf added to the Caspian Basin –basically the globe’s oil supply –being under one rather self-interested kremlin thumb. Now, USA is a whole lot of blood & treasure into OIF, and all along the EU –bigger, more populus, richer, closer to the trouble zone, and more needful of its oil than the USA –has for all intents & purposes just ciphered out, apparently certain that USA will fix everything without even making them hop off the moral equivalence fence. EU ought to have from the get-go been in this 1:1 with USA, troops as well as costs. Then the Bear wouldn’t dare be so aggressive –and that’s just for starters on the virtuous cycle that would result from a forward leaning Europe.

Aug 25, 2008 - 11:43 am 173. 2x4:

It appears you agree with the liberals, that USAs European allies are best described as lapdogs?

No, you just lack cells for sarcasm recognition. That’s all. Denmark is nobody’s lapdogs. They are a member of NATO for a reason. It s a voluntary alliance. Nobody forces Denmark to stay with NATO.

But it seems that apologists and appeasers like you wouldn’t mind to be a Russian lapdog. Considering western Europe’s pussified general population that is used to cradle-to-grave entitlement systems and left-wing politicos that would blame anobody but Russia and tiptoe around not to cause an offence to the bear in any shape or form (”Hey, what if I get lucky and Rusians plug me into some neat gravy train like Schroeder has?”), you may get your wish one day. The only question is who will be first ready for pickings, Islamists or Russia?

OK, I am exaggerating, but not by much. The trends are there for all to see–who are not blind.

Aug 25, 2008 - 11:48 am 174. buddy larsen:

clob, if i was 50 tanks, 50 aircraft, and 20k troops against 6000 tanks, 4000 aircraft, and a million troops, i’d freaking need a diaper too.

Aug 25, 2008 - 11:52 am 175. fedya:

“the baltic” ?
Oh, that’s where Denmark is.

Aug 25, 2008 - 11:53 am 176. OldSalt:

“Lets start by affirming that you know as little of me as I want to know of you. Nuff said. And if this is the sort of talk, which passes as debate Belmonts’ these days – how far the mighty has fallen since last I was here. Shrill ad-hominens and insults at the smallest not tooing the line. If your case is as good as you seem to believe, you should be able to defend it without stooping to such. Or perhaps you resort to such because you fail at arguments?” -Rune

Then lets both just get back to the topic at hand. America is a large nation. Not every segment of our society appreciates the service of the Danes (nor can even place Demark on a map). The folks on this site do. And my emphasis on American Marines and Soldiers should not be interpreted as thinking less of Danes. That’s something you created from whole cloth. NO one here is denigrating the service of our allies. (We just wish, occasionally, they’d put a few more troops in the field and spend more than an average 1/2 of 1% of the countries GNP on defense. And, it’d be nice of other European countries put blood on the line, as the Danes have, rather than hanging back in the rear. American kids are still the tip of the spear in Afghanistan.)

If you feel your troops “unappreciated” in their service, welcome to the club. But again, as much as I as an American get pissed off about the general European snobbery vis-a-vice America and our military, it doesn’t really matter. When I was in uniform, I enjoyed working with my European, Asian, South American, and other counterparts, but I was never confused who I fought for. It was the cute baby girl at home, my son, wife, my sisters, my friends, and even the friggin* unpatriotic (there.. I’ve said it) Democrat lefties I went to school with. I fought for America first, including freedom, truth and justice, as well.

But anyhow, let’s both dial it back. Russia is Denmarks enemy, not the USA. And vice-versa.

Aug 25, 2008 - 11:54 am 177. Lifeofthemind:

Denmark has shown far more backbone in dealing with the Islamists than the rest of the EU and their contribution during the current war is far better than it was during the Cold War. Rune steamed in here was rude and then wrapped himself in his country’s flag. Everyone shouldbe better about getting the facts right before hitting “submit.” Another reason to miss the old website’s tools. PIMF.

Whitehall, the canceled Zumwalt DDX program would have had a 155mm gun. The Navy may get a grand total of 3 of these but I expect a rounder number.

Aug 25, 2008 - 12:09 pm 178. buddy larsen:

if the cold war had ever gone hot –even conventionally hot, no nukes, Denmark with it’s extensive NATO installations ranged across the Soviet northern approaches, stood to be a, if not the, first target. Come to think of it, that’s still exactly the case.

Aug 25, 2008 - 12:11 pm 179. Lifeofthemind:

buddy larsen,
You are right about freddie and fannie. They are a strategic bomb in side America. The common thread in several of our problems is presence of Jamie Goreleck, The web of disasters from housing to FEMA to Justice and the 9-11 report that she is connected to is breathtaking. Could John Ford make a movie big enough to convey it?

Aug 25, 2008 - 12:14 pm 180. Lifeofthemind:

Interesting display of group dynamics we just had. Reminds me of the other day when my beast had a difference of opinion with another hairy one over the ownership of a tennis ball in the run. He suddenly was the center of 5 angry dogs. No one was hurt.

Aug 25, 2008 - 12:18 pm 181. 2x4:

Lifeoftehmind and Buddy, yes and yes.

My quarrel is with “runes” within Denmark, and with all those “if we retract into our shell, we’d be fine and who are we to tell Rusians what is right and what not–it is all relative…we must be sensitive to Russian needs…one man’s terorist is another man’s freedom fighter…”, etc. etc.

Aug 25, 2008 - 12:23 pm 182. buddy larsen:

no, i don’t think so lifeofmind –not ford, nor shakespeare, maybe the Bible. and you’re right about Gorelick –but she’s just the visible feature. Watching the 9/11 commission hearings, there was a moment in the seating/greeting on one of the days, when she and George Tenet came face to face in a general handshaking cluster. I was watching on tv and the look that passed between them nearly floored me –and still gives me cold chills. think, two people trying very hard to look nonchalant, but who couldn’t help their heads freezing still for an instant, with a little widening of the eyes. go to the video tape, if you can find it, sometime.

Aug 25, 2008 - 12:25 pm 183. bobal:

Not like them Swedes, who can’t spell

supercede
conceed
procede
idiosyncracy
concensus
accomodate
impressario
irresistable
rhythym
opthalmologist
diptheria
anamoly
afficianado
caesarian
grafitti

OK, Larcen, which of the above are mispelled.

You got 30 seconds.

Aug 25, 2008 - 12:25 pm 184. buddy larsen:

i wonder where ms Gorelick is now. Wherever, be interesting to know if it connects to Georgia.

Aug 25, 2008 - 12:31 pm 185. RAH:

The strongest naval power in the world is the US Navy. It is what makes us the world’s superpower because we can project power throughout the world.. Britain was the world superpower due to her naval superiority but they reduced their navy when they were seduced by socialism and domestic priorities. England’s wealth for centuries was based on the control of the seas and trade that came from the sea. When Britain turned its back on that they became a backwater nation with little threat to back them up.

Russia has for centuries strived for access to the worlds oceans since they were a landlocked nation; they finally got Murmansk in the north and the Black Sea in the south. Russia will never give up the Crimea. It is a strategic necessity to Russia. Ukraine is more in danger than Georgia is because of that fact, The natural geographical barriers of the Caucasus Mountains help protect Georgia and the Southern range is the reason Georgia has existed over a 1000 years.

Batumi was not attacked by the Russia because it is in the Turkish minority area and Turkey has a proprietarily interest in that region. Russia did travel by helicopters and road during their occupation but did not damage or obvious looting. According to US Navy the reason they anchored at Batumi was worries about the damage to port facilities at Poti and could not accommodate the McFaul. An Aegis missile destroyer is not a good ship for humanitarian purposes and it was first in the area. Turkey as anticipated had approved this transit since under the treaty it did not cover missiles that were not imagined when the Treaty of Montreaux was signed.

The withdrawal was done just as US Navy transited the Straits. That was not coincidence. The very minor blockade is a symbolic gesture by the Russians. Once aid shipments go through the blockade will fade away.

Russia did ship tanks and support trucks by navy ships in Abkhazia, which has some good ports and shoreline. The rail line from Abkhazia to Russia is intact and operable during the winter. Russia moves most of its army by rail so it has the equipment to clear snow and ice.

Until NATO units with the independent Swedish monitors approach Tskhinvali, the extra security measures that Russia used to expand the borders of S. Ossetia will not be pushed back. Abkhazia did not loot and rampage throughout Georgia and they expanded their borders to the Kodori Gorge. That is natural geographical barrier and will probably stand.

The real message is that NATO is real that is why a Spanish Aegis missile destroyer and a Polish ship is doing planned exercises in the Black Sea. I was surprised that we gave the Aegis missile technology to Spain. The message is that one little missile destroyer could probably take out the entire Black Sea Fleet. Russia is getting naval basing rights in Syria to be able project its naval power in the Mediterranean.

US also are doing a true reassurance to Romania and other Balkan nations that we can face down in Russia’s own private sea. This is actually more ballsy than US actions in the Cold War where we did not challenge Russia directly in their area except for the Turkish missiles we installed to check the Russia missiles in Cuba. That was the time when we had another missile destroyer transit into the Black Sea and Turkey rejected Russia complaints that it violated the Treaty of Montreaux because it did not have guns sized larger than allowed because it was a missile ship.

I noted that Russia air force disappeared when US C17 appeared and only helicopters were basically used. Some Russia planes over flew Poti and the western portion of Georgia. But we have chosen not to do flights over Georgia with fighters, as that cannot be excused as a humanitarian gesture.

Bush has played this out very delicately, in order to provide Russia a chance to make its point toward Georgia but back out and save face. I myself would have preferred a more robust response but I am maybe more rash than the President.

Aug 25, 2008 - 12:31 pm 186. Lifeofthemind:

The ancestral hatreds among the various Scandinavians would be quaint if it didn’t make them more vulnerable to infiltration bya serious enemy. Many years ago someone taught me this ditty.

A thousand Swedes crawled through the weeds
to kill one lone Norwegian.
A thousnad more stood by and swore
it was a mighty battle.

Lighten up guys. Real bad people are trying to kill us.

Aug 25, 2008 - 12:32 pm 187. buddy larsen:

all of ‘em!

Aug 25, 2008 - 12:33 pm 188. Cannoneer No. 4:

Clob, somebody laughing at “armchair admirals” who doesn’t know his Baltic from his Black really is a joke.

Aug 25, 2008 - 12:35 pm 189. Lifeofthemind:

@buddy larsen,
From wiki “She is currently a law partner in the Washington office of WilmerHale and a non-executive director of the oilfield services provider Schlumberger Ltd.”

Aug 25, 2008 - 12:38 pm 190. Cannoneer No. 4:

Russia cruiser to test weapons in crowded Black Sea

Moskva is back out.

Aug 25, 2008 - 12:38 pm 191. buddy larsen:

yep –Moskva moving out news hit wall street and up-jittered the whole thing.

Aug 25, 2008 - 12:41 pm 192. whiskey:

Cedarford ignores that Putin is aiming to kill a lot of Americans through proxy nuclear attacks on the US continental soil by Iran. That’s why Russia is helping Iran nuke up.

It’s the game of Last Man Standing. Russia does not have to be great, just the survivor.

This is not the Cold War, and Bill Clinton’s decision to allow Pakistan to nuke up has a consequence, the inevitable (within 20 years or so) nuking of NYC and/or DC. That’s a given.

Once that happens, the elites will of course peddle “it’s all our fault” or what have you (the Pat Buchanon “it’s the Jews!” conspiracy theories will be in the mix). Non-response guarantees more cities die and Wretchard’s third conjecture comes into play. Once the reality of nuclear proliferation set in there was no other option.

The elites are both lazy and corporatist — a nasty amalgamation of “progressive” elements, meets Mussolini and Che. They are also unable to comprehend the equalizing effect of nuclear technology — allowing poor nations and minor thugs to kill millions of Americans and gain power in their own nations. Over nations.

If much of human history is the struggle between thuggery and the rule of law, the balance has for now swung back to thuggery as the rule of law has been unable and unwilling to crush the thugs when it had the chance.

You can already see thuggery starting to rule European cities (various no-go areas for non-Muslims) and that will only get worse.

Aug 25, 2008 - 12:43 pm 193. buddy larsen:

busy firm

Aug 25, 2008 - 12:46 pm 194. Rune:

bobal:
I think that’s right and I wish the Russians would see it that way too. Instead of enabling Iran, invading Georgia and sundry other matters, they ought to be making nice with us.

After the fall of the Soviet Union Russia was fervently pro-West and pro-USA. I have been many times in Russia and Ukraine and they couldn’t get enough of the West. Movies, television, music, books, etc. practically from one day to the other all the shops threw out all home made products and replaced them with Western ones – even when they were of a worse quality. I saw people throwing out old hand crafted furniture and replace them with cheap IKEA furniture, just because it came from the West. Right or wrong, many Russians (and increasingly Ukrainian/Ukrainian Russians too) now feel they were let down and nationally humiliated and are bitterly disappointed. I think that was an historic mistake that the West didn’t do enough to make Russian democratisation and capitalisation experience more successful. But that’s all too late now. But given a choice to do so without appearing traitorous, I think most would still want to side with the West. “Western” is still used as quality mark and trips to Paris or London as nearly magical experiences. If we in any little way would want to help these pro Western sentiments, we’re doing all the wrong things. Kosovo was a big mistake. And for what? The Kosovo Albanians love you now. They’ll forget soon enough. Refusing to acknowledge the similarities between South Ossetia and Kosovo was another mistake. It’s there. You have to jump through hoops and bend over backwards not to see it. It appears for all to see that we are using two sets of rules. One of us and one for them. And Georgia is less of a democracy than Russia is. Yet Russia is all the time criticised for its rule and Georgia is fawned over.

fedya:
And you do seem to be overly-impressed by some, what?, metaphysical? status for Russia, which might, it seems at first blush, to have more to do with panic and fear at this present unraveling of the peace than with any heartfelt agreement that their position is really moral OR justified, right?

- not really. The Russians are playing the power game just like the Americans are. I do however genuinely feel that the Ossetians have a just cause. It’s a very small people. They have very little in common with the Georgians. The two languages are as different as English and Mongolian. Their survival as a people is endangered by being split up into two nations. The Georgians have persecuted them. “Georgian is only for Georgians”, “Ossetians are not humans, they are trash that must be removed by Georgian broom” are more slogans like that are what the first Georgian president was elected on. Whereafter he immediately removed SO status as an autonomous region and tried to make the use of the ossetian language illegal. A very large percentage were forced to flee (to Russia). After two wars, the two people hate each other. There’s no way they can ever live together in one nation. The region was created by Stalin (himself Georgian) in a classic divide and rule policy, but it has practically never been under Georgian rule.

exhelodrvr:
Not being familiar with your views from previous posts, it was hard to tell if you were making a complaint about Denmark being involved in Iraq/Afghanistan, or making a complaint that Denmark’s involvement and sacrifices (especially when compared to the rest of Europe) were not being appropriately recognized.

- No I’m a big supporter of our involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan. And would want it larger. And we don’t need appreciation or being recognized, since it’s clear that nothing less than could be expected for Americas struggle for Denmark during The Cold War. And in any case Denmark doesn’t trust Germany or France to uphold its defence requirements and would rather throw in its apples in Americas basket. The official story is that we’re in Iraq and Afghanistan to further democracy and all that. Everybody knows that the only reason we’re there is because the USA asked. I do however object when accused of contributing nothing, “neither money nor bullets nor boots”, because it is a disgrace to all the Danish soldiers which have been hurt or killed in Iraq and Afghanistan and other places.

buddy larsen:
EU ought to have from the get-go been in this 1:1 with USA, troops as well as costs.

- No. The EU ought to have done its utmost to make Russia a member state. As well as Ukraine. Russia is a European nation and a Russians a European people. For sure they have more cultural and historical ties with the rest of Europe than Turkey has. Denmark has ties going back to Russian nations at least a thousand years back.

fedya:
“the baltic” ?
Oh, that’s where Denmark is.

- ok. I don’t know if you are being ironic? But the Baltic nations are Lithuania, Estonia and Estonia. Denmark, Sweden and Finland have traditional close cultural ties to them. The Danish flag, which is the oldest in the world, comes from a Danish crusade to Estonia.

OldSalt:
But anyhow, let’s both dial it back. Russia is Denmarks enemy.

- only if we make it so. I think there still is time to make another history.

Aug 25, 2008 - 12:47 pm 195. buddy larsen:

Rune, i meant OIF, not the current Black Sea conflict–

Lifeofmind –take a look at the Community Reinvestment Act, re Fannie & Freddie –and the way the federal establishment uses –used –it to encourage the banks subprime lending –

Aug 25, 2008 - 1:00 pm 196. exhelodrvr:

Rune,
Some of us appreciate Danish support.

Aug 25, 2008 - 1:02 pm 197. OldSalt:

“OldSalt: But anyhow, let’s both dial it back. Russia is Denmarks enemy.”
“Rune: – only if we make it so. I think there still is time to make another history.”

If Old Europe will not defend new Europe, then Germany will not defend Denmark, and France will not defend Germany, and it’s arguable that France will not defend France.

The test Putin put in motion was not of US resolve, but of West European resolve. Western Europe failed the test and basically met Putin’s expectations.

The only way to “make another history” to war, when one belligerent has carefully prepared for and executed a war plan, is to field sufficient force to create a viable deterrent. Those who have said directly or indirectly that Putin would not have considered invading Georgia if Europe had a viable deterrence and will to use it, have identified the issue – spot-on. Diplomacy only works when force backs it.

Thus far I have heard no European leader, nor collection of leaders, who have said as GHWB said of Kuwait in 1990, “This shall not stand”. Here’s how European history stops, and reverses course on a dime: Germany, England, France, Denmark, and a collection of Eastern European countries issue a statement:

“Russia is recognized as the belligerent in this hostility, and must withdraw to it’s borders within 30 days. Russian must pay reparations to Georgia. We will support, and we expect the Russian’s will not oppose, an international peacekeeping force in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and a plan for international monitors to monitor a plebiscite for self-determination as a Georgian state or territory. This action by Russian will not stand, and we are willing to guarantee that. To that end, we are moving to immediately increase our military spending to 6% for the next five years, to place more men under arms, to strength and support similar action by allied NATO countries, and to oppose this Russian invasion until Georgia is once again free and independent.”

Putin then withdraws, period. He can debate how far America will go to defend Georgia, but he cannot and will not oppose European rearmament and committed force. Georgia is then not worth what it would cost to keep.

Europe is the key to “how far” Putin goes in Georgia, whether he moves anywhere else in Europe. As long as Europe has no serious deterrent, and no will to use it, Putin wins.

Aug 25, 2008 - 1:16 pm 198. buddy larsen:

All our markets in free-fall today. Very light volume. Many wait & see investors. Light volume good in that it doesn’t ”confirm” these moves –but bad in that price swings are magnified in low participation. Volatility then drives more peoiple to the sidelines –increasing the shallowing of the mkt depth that is USA financial mkts biggest global asset.

Fannie and freddie up today –entire Dow 30 down. F&F ”up” off nearly zero –on Obama’s comment that ”we can’t let them fail”.

Brains say F & F need to be broken into 12 regional autonomous units that can then serve the mkt rather than be the national dump. but an emergency re-structure requires Congress –which is gone home –and won’t be back til January 2009. More horrible timing –just when congress leaves DC, the F & F mess suddenly goes parabolic as the real news hits the public. and no way to stop the panic until January 2009.

Unless Bush calls congress back to restructure F & F. Like, now.

Aug 25, 2008 - 1:19 pm 199. Cannoneer No. 4:

Black Sea fleet needs to be enhanced (photo)

Russian version here.

Aug 25, 2008 - 1:21 pm 200. Cannoneer No. 4:

Black Sea fleet needs to be enhanced (photo)

Aug 25, 2008 - 1:31 pm 201. OldSalt:

“And Georgia is less of a democracy than Russia is. Yet Russia is all the time criticised for its rule and Georgia is fawned over.” – Rune

Support that statement with a few facts. Has SAAKASHVILI killed off his political opposition, killed journalists, taken control of all media outlets, nationalized major industries, appointed local government? Has he violated (read: “shredded”) the constitution (read: document that grants government the mandate to govern)? Has he invaded a neighboring country, or exported military support to terror countries such as Iran or Venezuela?

How is “Georgia less of a democracy than Russia”?

It’s statements like that which savage your own credibility. You might not be a FSB shill or Russian nationalist, be some Americans can’t believe anyone would be so foolish as to believe such tripe.

Georgia might not be an ideal democracy, but it was an independent, genuine democracy, minding it’s own business, and nothing justifies the Russian invasion of Georgia. No part of Georgia or the Ukraine belongs to Russia. If Russia finds a Black sea port strategically essential, how much more Copenhagen, Kiel, Toulon, or Portsmouth?

Aug 25, 2008 - 1:35 pm 202. Rune:

OldSalt:
If Old Europe will not defend new Europe

- Russia is Europe too. But the problem with defending Georgia is that not everything is geopolitics and the Georgian cause is so blatantly unjust. (when it comes to SO – Abkhazia is another story) They have no moral ground to stand on and only the flimsiest of legal justification. The only reason they want membership in NATO is so they can have somebody to hold their jacket and watch their back while they rough up that little guy over there. I hardly think that’s what NATO is supposed to be. NATO membership should require some level of national maturity and restrain. Neither of which Georgia has. Perhaps in twenty years. They could start showing their maturity by letting the Ossetians go their own way peacefully.

OldSalt:
“Russia is recognized as the belligerent in this hostility”

- no, it wouldn’t stand because it would be such an obvious lie. Georgia started the last round of war. There’s no getting around it. I would never support sending Danish troops to Georgia to fight the Russians over Georgia’s right to suppress the Ossetians which wants nothing to do with the Georgians and consider the Russians liberators. Why on Earth should I? I want nothing to do with Georgia’s little dirty war against its ethnic minorities and would oppose any attempt to abuse NATO in such a way.

Aug 25, 2008 - 1:38 pm 203. fedya:

@rune:
The region was created by Stalin (himself Georgian) in a classic divide and rule policy, but it has practically never been under Georgian rule

You are perpetuating disinformation. How many Ossets actually live on the South slopes of the Greater Caucasus is very much in dispute. Ossetians speak a variant of Persian. They arrived in the trans-Caucasus long after Georgia existed as peoples and states. They were forced into the North slope mountains by the Turkic and/or Hun migration/invasion sometime between 1100 and 1300.

A few Ossetians moved to Georgia on the South slopes of the Greater Caucasus as “guest workers” but the only geographic region one could legitimately call “Ossetian” up until the 1870’s was on the North slope of the Greater Caucasus.

How so? The Czars began taking total control of the Caucasus around 1800 in campaigns of genocide and ethnic cleansing against the patchwork of Ottoman-oriented, mostly Muslim, Turkic peoples (for example, the original inhabitants of Abkhzia: all dead or gone to Turkey). The Ossetians were a convenient client force used much like the Cossack tribes were used. The Czars used Ossetian hatred of their Turkic conquerors to control the North Caucasus, making certain that Ossetians controlled the territories of Russia’s three military roads that crossed the center of the Greater Caucasus down into Georgia.

Since there were Ossetian families employed by Georgian landholders, the Czars also declared a Ossetian area on the South slope. This further cemented Czarist control over their military roads and gave them an excuse to get pushy with uppity Georgians.

It was that bloody paranoid, old “Uncle Joe Georgian” Stalin who really put the screws to Georgia by raising South “Ossetia” to “Autonomous” status.

South Ossetia was since then pumped full of ethnic Russians. They are by and large NOT Ossets. We have difficulty fathoming how thoroughly dishonest and vicious the Russian charade called South “Ossetia” has been since 1800 but it is perfectly consistent with the rest of their occupation of Black Sea, Caspian and Central Asian states for over 200 years.

If you think the few Ossets in South “Ossettia” are a nationality yearning for self-expression, I would suggest that you are not alone, but that you are thoroughly duped. South “Ossetia” is an ethnically Russian criminal enterprise and the relatively few Ossets who have been living on the South slopes of the Greater Caucasus are not themselves the militants agitating against the Georgian government. No, the militants are the gangs serving the Russe Generals, the “soloviki”.

The people you have been duped into calling South “Ossetians” are really the same ethnic Russians we refer to as “The Russian Mafia”.

Heartless and cruel, Czarist, Soviet, and now Putinist/Soloviki policies will only continue to create misery and instability in the trans-Caucasus. If you really prefer Peace, you want Russia out of Georgia as much as you want Russia out of her Viking ancestors’ homeland, Denmark.

Aug 25, 2008 - 1:40 pm 204. cjm:

i skip every c4 post as he is clearly a crank. if he manages to accidentally post something worthwhile, it will get quoted by another poster with more free time than i.

Aug 25, 2008 - 1:45 pm 205. 2x4:

OS, absolutely correct.

Some pro-Russian people may try the “reasonable” mode, but once they pull the Kosovo=S Ossetia and Gamsakhurdia=Saakashvili equivalency canards, the game is over you know where they stand, and it isn’t on our side.

It is on the same level as “I am not anti-semite and don’t hate Jews, just the Zionist lobby and Israelis should leave occupied Palestine” (all of it, that is).

Aug 25, 2008 - 1:46 pm 206. Fletcher Christian:

OldSalt:

I trust that your implied insult, during the discussion about Denmark, to other Europeans does not include the UK. Or even the French, for that matter – I seem to remember that their relatively small contingent in Afghanistan suffered ten casualties a couple of days ago.

The UK supported Mr. Bush’s adventure in Iraq, because our then Prime Minister wanted to cosy up to the USA – probably to make more money there when he left office. And we did it against expert advice, and we shouldn’t have. And that’s the sort of thanks we get.

So many Americans have been rabbiting on about being the world’s policeman and having to shoulder too much of the burden. Welcome to the unthanked club, America. We Brits have been struggling against tyranny and slavery for, arguably, four hundred and twenty years; to illustrate that, just imagine what would have happened if we’d rolled over and played dead for the Spanish Armada. Europe would be run by the Inquisition, modern science would never have developed, and America as it is now wouldn’t exist. Slightly later, think about a certain Corsican gentleman (on whose side America was, incidentally). Think about the thousands of British sailors’ lives that were lost putting an end to the slave trade. And of course there was two years of World War II.

Add to that the small job of bringing order and unity to what is now the world’s largest democracy. We’re tired. Time for someone else to take on the job. Don’t expect thanks for doing it – we didn’t get any.

Aug 25, 2008 - 1:50 pm 207. fedya:

@rune:
I take it back. Now that I have looked over your last post, I have concluded that you are just another boring Russian disinformation agent. Sorry, I got taken in.

If you do happen to possess Danish blood or citizenship, more shame upon you!

Aug 25, 2008 - 1:51 pm 208. trangbang68:

I used to think Cedarford bore a striking resemblance to Thomas Fleming or maybe Justin Raimondo fresh from the bathhouses of Sodom by the Bay. That link in Ace of Spades though had a whole lot of Julius Steicher in it.Hotsy-totsy another Nazi.
Julio, you obviously weren’t the cat that was down by the schoolyard with Paul Simon were you?
Whiskey, is it really a given that NYC or DC will be nuked in 20 years? What’s the proper response to that certainty, crawl in the corner in the fetal position and cry? Lighten up brother.

Aug 25, 2008 - 1:51 pm 209. OldSalt:

“Georgia started the last round of war. There’s no getting around it.” – Rune

There you go again.

It was those 100’s of Georgian tanks, a force that prepared planned for months, that invaded Russia that caused the war.

This argument is only tenable if you buy the Russian line of argument, hook, line, and sinker. You believe that Georgia attacked South Ossetia, i.e. its own territory, without provocation? Defend that. You assert, I assume, that Georgia was committing genocide and ethnic cleansing against civilians in South Ossetia. Defend that premise. There is no credible, on-the-ground source other than the Russian FSB who asserts that. independent jounalists and NGO’s have asserted just the opposite, that the only such abuses were occurring at the hands of Russian’s against Georgians. South Ossetia casualties have been at most, in the 100’s, and no source has qualified how many of those were 18-24 year old men with Russian surnames living as South Ossetia civilians on Georgian soil.

Given Russian’s modus operandi and history, why would you shill for them?

“There’s no getting around it..”? You have an excellent grasp of American idioms for the average Dane. How is that?

Aug 25, 2008 - 1:51 pm 210. Lifeofthemind:

The reasons to call Congress back into session keep piling up.

Aug 25, 2008 - 1:53 pm 211. DanM:

Buddy,

Apparently there was some liquidity added to F&F.

Hmm.. 23% pop for Freddie and 9% for Fannie…

Aug 25, 2008 - 1:56 pm 212. Elroy Jetson:

Congress should not go back into session. Keep Biden out on the campaign trail for comic relief and for the sake of the country.

Aug 25, 2008 - 1:57 pm 213. DanM:

And, NO – I am not shilling for F&F…

Aug 25, 2008 - 1:58 pm 214. OldSalt:

I trust that your implied insult, during the discussion about Denmark, to other Europeans does not include the UK. Or even the French, for that matter – I seem to remember that their relatively small contingent in Afghanistan suffered ten casualties a couple of days ago. – Fletcher

Don’t attribute comments or insinuations to me that I did not make. That’s an ad hominem intended to discredit the remarks I did make.

The UK supported Mr. Bush’s adventure in Iraq ..

That’s not what Britains were saying, post 9-11. “We are all Americans..”, or something like that. “Bush’s adventure” took the strategic center ground on the War on Terrorism (I hate that term). We had a target right environment post 9-11, and American had the right to select here enemies. We could fight all at once, we could fight them one at a time. But it wasn’t “Bush’s adventure” until the American Democrats decided, for sake of local politics and personal power, to make it that leading up until the 2004 election. It was America’s war, impressed upon us by others, and supported by our allies such as the UK. The US left committed treason, turning on our troops in the field, personalizing the war, and siding with our enemies rhetorically (at the least), solely to enhance their political power.

As for the rest of your screed on history, it doesn’t necessarily match events, but enjoy your viewpoint.

“Add to that the small job of bringing order and unity to what is now the world’s largest democracy. We’re tired. Time for someone else to take on the job. Don’t expect thanks for doing it – we didn’t get any.” – what??? India?? Hell, how’d that get in here?

I appreciate and respect the contributions of the UK and our other allies. However, it doesn’t require an American bias to recognize the deficiency in Europe’s defense contributions, and I’m absolutely certain, that Georgia feels a bit more could be done in the “common defense” theme when it comes to Eastern Europe versus Russia.

Aug 25, 2008 - 2:02 pm 215. fedya:

@DanM:
But would you give a shilling for F&F?

Aug 25, 2008 - 2:02 pm 216. OldSalt:

“target right” should have said “target rich”

Aug 25, 2008 - 2:03 pm 217. exhelodrvr:

Fletcher,
“We Brits have been struggling against tyranny and slavery for, arguably, four hundred and twenty years”

LOL! What you mean is that you Brits have been struggling against slavery and tyranny imposed by others for 420 years. British tyranny was acceptable.

Aug 25, 2008 - 2:07 pm 218. Al_Batross:

“when everyone gets to the edge and stares into the abyss for awhile” – buddy larsen.

Did we not do that already ? No ? Well, I guess my nervous disposition is showing again.
I agree with those who are arguing for caution. I am not undertaking to agree with Cedarford about Everything, but he is right to sound warnings when there seems to be some much enthusiasm for what will happen when people start pressing buttons. This conflict has already killed too many, and ruined the lives of too many others. Making it bigger is unlikely, imho, to fix anything.
I also regret the splenetic tone of many of the comments on this subject. I know, I only started commenting here recently, but I have been reading here since the days of PossumTater, and I think we need more of the erudition and wit which has traditionally distinguished this site, and less of the twist of lemming.

Aug 25, 2008 - 2:08 pm 219. buddy larsen:

DanM –right, they were up big percents, but the financial sector was off 3% –the stocks are so low now that big % moves don’t take much –a few funds come in for a bet, essentially. –look at their one year charts –be prepared to get nauseated tho. what happened today was an Obama comment “we must save F & F” –plus Freddie sold 2 bbl of 3 & 6 mo bills –gave a ray of hope that USA won’t take ‘em over –which would wipe out the stock value to zero, in favor of the senior debt and if there’s anything left, the preferred shares at discount pro rata (under half). I’m not shilling agin ‘em, either –i just hate myself for not seeing all this sooner.

Aug 25, 2008 - 2:11 pm 220. DanM:

Buddy,

woulda, shoulda, coulda…

Story of my investment half-life…

Aug 25, 2008 - 2:14 pm 221. 2x4:

Buddy, don’t panic. Not yet, there may be enough reason to panic later… or not.

Aug 25, 2008 - 2:14 pm 222. SuckMyRod:

Run a respectable website you lowlife sacks of garbage.

Aug 25, 2008 - 2:16 pm 223. exhelodrvr:

“Think about the thousands of British sailors’ lives that were lost putting an end to the slave trade.”

That is an exaggeration.

Aug 25, 2008 - 2:16 pm 224. SuckMyRod:

OldSalt:

do you take your teeth out when you blow young boys?

Aug 25, 2008 - 2:17 pm 225. Work My Pole:

Suck My Rod:

Watch your language, there are mentally retarded lowlife present.

Aug 25, 2008 - 2:18 pm 226. RAH:

Basically European nations should worry if America decided to go back to its shell and let the rest of the world goes to hell in a hand basket.

A lot of Americans are isolationists; this falls in perfectly with lefty ideas that US should not do anything. Libertarians and lots of Republicans are isolationists. This is a dangerous delusion that the world’s problems cannot affect us.

Aug 25, 2008 - 2:19 pm 227. buddy larsen:

2×4 –thanks –i won’t panic. Last time the mkts collapsed i DID panic –jumped out the window, 1929 style. but i was on the first floor so all i did was skin my elbow a little.

Aug 25, 2008 - 2:21 pm 228. buddy larsen:

gonna break while W cleans up a little –

Aug 25, 2008 - 2:25 pm 229. Fletcher Christian:

OldSalt: The UK supported appropriate action. Appopriate action was doing something about the people behind 9/11. Who weren’t Iraqi; they were Wahabist extremists aided, abetted and financed by Saudi Arabia and specifically the Saudi royal family. But of course THEY were and are untouchable, because powerful interests in the USA would be financially harmed by any action against Saudi – including but not limited to some of Bush’s friends and business contacts. And even given that Iraq had been chosen; having won, the USA managed the occupation with truly staggering incompetence.

Right action, wrong target. What Saddam Hussein was doing to his own people was and is irrelevant. But Bush needed someone vaguely acceptable to beat on to stay in office, so Hussein and Iraq paid for someone else’s crime.

Al_Batross: There is one problem with taking really firm action against Russia. Or rather approximately twenty thousand problems, all marked with a familiar trefoil.

Aug 25, 2008 - 2:25 pm 230. Cannoneer No. 4:

We Brits have been struggling against tyranny and slavery for, arguably, four hundred and twenty years;

Anglo please.

Before guilty white Methodists shamed you into abolition, the transatlantic slave trade in the West Indies and North America was carried in mostly British ships, sailed by British mariners, financed by British investors, insured by Lloyd’s of London.

I am grateful that Good Queen Bess turned Errol Flynn loose on the Armada, but you guys still haven’t worked off the atrocities committed by Banastre Tarleton in the Carolinas. At your current rate of contrition it will be another 91 years before you earn forgiveness for dragging us into the Great War.

Aug 25, 2008 - 2:25 pm 231. DanM:

fedya,

only on yesterdays price… Haven’t been able to talk anyone into that yet.

Everybody is still talking about the Treasury when they talk F&F..

Aug 25, 2008 - 2:26 pm 232. RAH:

Wretchard

Block the ” Suck My Rod” Lowlife. We can get along arguing with each other without the juvenile.

Aug 25, 2008 - 2:27 pm 233. OldSalt:

Fletcher: Please be more specific when you put comments next to my screen name. Perhaps using “quotes” for my comments, as distinguished from your own.

You have a very … hmmm …distinctive line of logic, and I’d feel bad if anyone confused your comments with something I’d written.

Thanks.

Aug 25, 2008 - 2:46 pm 234. Lifeofthemind:

The putative status of these 30,000 or so South Ossetians that Russia is threatening WW-V for appears as fraudulent as that of some of the Native American tribes that have been discovered in the United States during the last 30 years. I wonder if the Russians retained the services of Jack Abramoff in putting this scam together?

If the Mocba did not make it back to port the Ukraine and every other littoral nations to the Black Sea would be safer. The linked article “Black Sea Fleet needs to be enhanced” included this gem:

With this political scientist consents Arkady Chikin, but in his opinion, Russia will be able to translate the new ships in Sevastopol until after the withdrawal from power of President of Ukraine Viktor Yushchenko and his entourage. “Moscow has long been thought on strengthening the Black Sea Fleet, but U.S. policy and leadership of Ukraine blocked the initiative. For Navy ships and aircraft ready. A combat equipment is ready, sailors know about it. But it is necessary to change the political situation “, – said the expert.
“There is a need to strengthen the submarine fleet. Now we CHF 2 submarine, with one of them to be repaired. It is also necessary to strengthen Airborne Force ships, enhancing aviation groups – assault, intelligence, it is necessary to strengthen the forces of underwater sabotage “, – Calls Chikin

There is no natural or legitimate reason for Russian forces to be permitted south of 44° N.

Wretchard, as a courtesy to your visitors, it is time to take out the ban stick.

Aug 25, 2008 - 2:48 pm 235. OldSalt:

“SuckMyRxx”

Another distinctive “Obamican” redefining “low-life” in action, all over again. Obamican’s are everywhere, doncha know?

We appreciate your contribution.

Aug 25, 2008 - 2:48 pm 236. Lifeofthemind:

@OldSalt
Speak for yourself, I don’t appreciate it at all.
Arrrgh
/
(Always felt the Club was the Gold Standard and hope the Members Committee and House Committee can get the leather furniture fixed.)

Aug 25, 2008 - 2:55 pm 237. Cannoneer No. 4:

Anybody here read Turkish?

I think USS Taylor has made it to Istanbul.

Aug 25, 2008 - 3:00 pm 238. RAH:

Tit for tat is not a smart way to go after the ME jihadists that were flowing from country to country. The Saudis decided to make a Faustian bargain and let the religious thugs run the religion and let the royals alone. Then the Saudis decided to export the damn Wahabist religion to Britain, US with the Islamic Studies programs grants at the best colleges. Only Giuliani saw through this with the gift of Saudi money that he spurned after the WTC. The 1990’s saw a lot of large mosques built in the US with their imported jihadist preachers.

The new idea was to kill two birds with one stone. Iraq had been a problem and Saddam two sons as heirs were going to make it worse. It was an unfinished war since 1991. Might as well finish it and US policy was regime change since Clinton, so Bush just made the policy reality.

The second issue was to create flypaper that drew the entire jihadist to an area that was not the US and kill them there. Iraq was chosen.

Plus with US control over Iraq, that was the strategic center of the ME. It made perfect sense to get rid of the incessant ME problem that had been a problem for 30 years. The US now has a good ability to influence events.

Libya got scared and discarded its nuclear program and gave up the network of Pakistani nuclear secrets by Khan. Pakistan decided better to be with the US than against and helped some with terrorists. Iraq was not supposed to take so long but State and Bremmer screwed it up and the generals determined to keep a light touch did not help. The idea that the State Dept had was to create a government from top down. That did not really work. The military finally decide to work from the local level up with the tribes and that did work.

I believe the original idea was 3 years for Iraq and then take out Iranian leadership and destroy the nuclear facilities of Iran. Iran has been the US enemy since 1979 and the holding for our people for over a year by the idiotic Carter. The classic Democrat wimp that equivocated between our ally the Shah and Ayatollah Khomenei.

But reality was more difficult than the neocons anticipated. I was for the invasion but figured 10 years to pacify the country and get good basing rights. So I was not surprised or dismayed. But it is a good lesson that military conquest is not easy for Americans. We don’t like hurting innocents and war damages so many innocents.

So doing the Clinton, a bombing for an attack, tit for tat is useless. Rather better the destruction of those jihadists and show that going after America is a good way to die and lose your idea that Allah supports jihad with success. ME people are bombastic and like to boast. But they follow a winner, not a loser and respect strength not weakness.

Afghanistan is a failed country and has been for decades. They are really a feudal culture with loyalties to local warlords. Especially in the rural areas which are mostly everywhere but Kabul. As long as the Taliban can run into Pakistan that effort will not win. Pakistan was infested with ISI infiltration that created and supported the Taliban. The Pakistani government is losing control of their own country and could not clean out the Taliban in the North West Territories, which really have been lawless for centuries.
Pakistan is the next casualty in allowing Wahabist influence in the schools, laws and mosques.

They are a good lesson for Britain, which is falling in the same failure to see the poison that infects their nation.

Aug 25, 2008 - 3:06 pm 239. Lifeofthemind:

Anybody keeping a score on how many Jihadis we have eliminated in Iraq and in Aghanistan?

Aug 25, 2008 - 3:23 pm 240. Dan:

The insertion of our naval assets into the Black Sea is possibly the most worrisome situation for Pootie, I think, and from what I’ve seen and read, it appears that we will be there for some time.

Given that we can maintain an indefinite “humanitarian” naval presence there, what options does Putin have?

Assuming that direct action from the Russkies is off the table, it appears that tactically AND strategically he can do nothing about- or to- them.

And by trying to take Georgia, did he give away his exclusivity of the Black Sea? Did we just inherit a new little lake in which our Navy can play? And what is that nervous tapping sound I hear coming from Teheran?

Aug 25, 2008 - 3:25 pm 241. Todd:

Hi Guys,

If you like debating politics, religion, economics etc check out http://www.engageforum.com

Aug 25, 2008 - 3:27 pm 242. DanM:

American Georgia Policy is an object of satire already…

So, that means it was always our responsibility.. No one else, just ours. Buy California and Georgian wines and Japanese cars (OK, American too). The Yurps are a piece of work…

Aug 25, 2008 - 3:39 pm 243. 2x4:

Yo, Todd, thumb up for chutzpa, thumb down for tackyness.

Aug 25, 2008 - 3:42 pm 244. 2x4:

Russia warns Moldova against “Georgian mistake”

Aug 25, 2008 - 4:05 pm 245. Lifeofthemind:

The next steps are sustainability and the littoral.

By sustainability I mean rotating enough assets to keep a meaningful combat presence in the Black Sea to keep the Russians bottled up, secure an air and sea bridge to Batumi and deny the Russians an Air or Sea bridge to Abkhazia if things escalate. Given the 21 day rule this becomes as complicated as the Berlin Airlift and will have to draw from all Nato assets. Will Turkey cooperate with getting Greek Naval units in to the Black Sea? Sustainability also includes the need to increase support to the 6th Fleet and Nato forces in the Med as the Russians play the Syrian card. These two contingencies happening at the same time will severely strain Nato resources.

The littoral refers to the Ukraine. What do they need and who can provide it to them? Allied units should be moving in to assist Kiev now. If the French and Spanish are going to be anything other than fiefdoms in a new soviet empire they need to each move a division forward as should Romania. Nato needs to shift to a system were the central command can draw on at least 3 percent of each members GDP.

Aug 25, 2008 - 4:08 pm 246. Lifeofthemind:

@2X4,
The danger is that the Russians could use the Transdniestre as a carrot to dangle in front of Romania. It would make more sense in a perfect world if the allies were reversed with Russia supporting a backwards regime and the EU hoping to get everyone in the big tent to dissolve local allegiances. That is what the EU is for, making old rivalries like the Flemings vs Walloons or the English vs Irish irrelevant in a bigger unit.

On the other hand the continued naked bullying of the Russians with their phony peacekeepers highlights the root problem of all these Russian army units that got left in the near abroad when the Soviet Union collapsed. At the time the argument was that they had to stay there because there were no houses for them back in Russia. Now they need to be cut off and evacuated. If any Peacekeepers are needed the UN should supply them from the minor powers usually used for that task.

Aug 25, 2008 - 4:19 pm 247. Steynian 230 « Free Mark Steyn!:

[...] HUMANITARIAN US Flotilla Transits Turkey Arrives In Georgia.. Canadian Frigates also providing cover! …. (classicalvalues, [...]

Aug 25, 2008 - 4:23 pm 248. Cannoneer No. 4:

O/T, but of interest to many here.

Pakistan: Gunmen attack APCs in Karachi bound for Afghanistan

Aug 25, 2008 - 4:29 pm 249. 2x4:

Rune: Do you think the price is worth it?

Sounds to me like you just made another “lower your trousers” proposition.

Russia has been selling weapon systems to Syria and Iran for years. To say if we bend over that they won’t do it … why they did it before when all was peachy peaceful and unicorns were drinking from kool-aid streams?

As for Afghanistan, it will be less costly if they are out of the picture than if we have to pay for theit paricipation with Georgia, Ukraina, etc, with a potential that they srew us in Afghanistan in some way.

Aug 25, 2008 - 4:54 pm 250. 2x4:

Ecce Russa Nova:

Katyn Wood ‘Justifiable’, According To Russia

“Stalin was an efficient leader, not a murderer. The killing of Polish officers in Katyn was a well-deserved revenge,” will be the new official historical theory taught in Russian schools.

Before the opening of the new school year, the Russian Academy of Qualification Improvement and Professional Retraining of Education Employees has released guidelines for teachers regarding the history syllabus in schools.

From now on, Russian pupils will be informed that some 22,000 Polish officers were indeed killed by the NKVD in Katyn in 1940, but the act was fully justified and “politically suitable”, reports a Moscow-based liberal, but pro-government daily newspaper Vremya Novosti.

Aug 25, 2008 - 5:00 pm 251. 2x4:

The Katyn post shows the true face of New Russia.

We.Can’t.Let.Them.Get.Away.With.A.Smallest.Thing.

Or the price we’d have to pay eventually, at a later point, would be way higher.

Aug 25, 2008 - 5:15 pm 252. coisty:

Spengler at his forum: What irks me the most is that the decisive mis-step by the West — the independence of Kosovo — was done to establish a “partnership with the Muslim world,” as Sen. Biden wrote at the time. In pursuit of an illusion, the West sacrificed what might have been a partnership with Russia.

Spengler Forum

Spengler is, presumably, a Jewish American. He seems to be one of the few non-Europeans to understand the importance of Kosovo/Serbia.

Aug 25, 2008 - 5:26 pm 253. bill-tb:

More or less “that’s as far as you go ‘bub’”

Aug 25, 2008 - 5:28 pm 254. buddy larsen:

i think he’s been identified as a Brit, Coisty –with a name, which i don’t recall. A writer, tho. Well, duh.

That bit on the new textbooks — my god — it was murder –the bodies had the NKVD small caliber pistol wounds in the back of the neck.

Are Russian schoolchildren getting the Hitler Youth treatment?

Aug 25, 2008 - 5:36 pm 255. 2x4:

Coisty, alhough in my view, Kosovo was a mistake, if it did not happen, the revelation of true Russia would have been just postponed.

Re-read the Katyn post. It has nothing to do with Kosovo. It has all to do with where Russia is heading, for some time now.

Aug 25, 2008 - 5:38 pm 256. buddy larsen:

USSR was at peace in 1940, safely allied with Hitler, when it secretly murdered the Polish Officer Corp, and kept the info from the anguished nation (and families). Where are the officers? asked the people. We don’t know, said the masters. i guess they did it because they could.

Aug 25, 2008 - 5:43 pm 257. OldSalt:

re: Katyn

I don’t believe in reparations for the sins of past generations. Today’s Russians are absolved as far as I am concerned. However, when the refuse to accept responsibility, and indeed teach their kids that it was legal and justified, well, then they’ve just bought a whole load of guilt. It might as well have happened yesterday, and every Russian, particularly those in uniform buys the title of “murderous thug”, as though they held the NKVD handguns.

That’s the problem with dishonor; it’s a hard to redeem. The Russians have lot of it on their hands, and they’ve just told us all “Yeah?? Well, wait until you see us do it again! Here, little Ivan, let me teach you about the birds and the bees and the glory of the NKVD in criminal Poland ….”.

Aug 25, 2008 - 5:51 pm 258. sarkis:

re-education on Katyn, I am sure is a tip of the iceberg, the tip that the Poles picked up. As Putin’s gang rolled up the loosened Russia (central control over local governors, dissolution of some autonomous regions, the squeeze on dissent, etc), I am sure history textbooks went back to either avoiding or excusing much of the dark past. I have no time to hunt down all the links now, but much of this revision has been pointed out by some brave Russian dissidents within the past 5 years or so.

Aug 25, 2008 - 6:02 pm 259. Bob Murphy:

“The test Putin put in motion was not of US resolve, but of Western European resolve. Western Europe failed the test and basically met Putin’s expectations.”

Old Salt, the EU is to Russia as the US is to Saudi Arabia.
Junkie.
Both the EU and the US have to end their dependency before they can deal with their pushers (Though I imagine our airborne troops and Marines wouldn’t have much trouble snatching Saudi oilfields which are in Shiite areas anyway if it became necessary.).

Aug 25, 2008 - 6:09 pm 260. buddy larsen:

1940 was also the year that at-peace USSR invaded and swallowed the Baltic Triplets. After USSR disbanded, and the triplets regained freedom, Estonia found itself with a USSR arifact, a large bronze statue in a prime location downtown, known as the Unknown Soldier. Not long ago, when Estonian authorities sought to move the statue (which local Estonians call the “Unknown Rapist”) to the nearby soldier’s cemetery, Russia threw a fit, threatening, accusing Estonia of abusing Russian-speaking Estonians, and attacking through the internet, shutting down and damaging the entire Estonian network, including government and commercial services. This attack was led, it is said, by the RBN network, said to be a St. Petersburg criminal organization that enjoys government-protection, and also said to’ve led the recent similar shutdown of the Georgian network. But, don’t take my word for all that, do your own search.

just what i read in the history books & papers, folks. may be all propaganda, but if so, it’s pretty comprehensive. if there is another side to the stories, i’d sure read them, too.

Aug 25, 2008 - 6:15 pm 261. fedya:

@Lifeofthemind:
@2X4,
The danger is that the Russians could use the Transdniestre as a carrot

It may be a little more raw intimidation than carrot. Moldova is totally land-locked, bordered by Ukraine North, East and South. To her West lies Romania (Romainian is the majority language of Moldova) on the other side of — are you ready? — the DANUBE.

The Trans-Nistre (the “d” is fugitive) is a very long skinny sliver of Moldova running along most of Moldova’s Eastern edge, as Chuck Schumer might say: “A dagger aimed at the heart” of both Western Georgia and Moldova… and Central Europe.

The Danube is very long, in Europe only the Volga is longer. It is navigable by river craft all the way to Bavaria. It is the great strategic prize of — and key to — Europe all the way past Vienna to Germany.

Something is really going off the rails WRONG in Moscow. By saying they will do to Moldova what they just did in Georgia, they are doing two very scary things:

1) Threatening to close Eastern Europe’s primary transport route for goods to the Black Sea and the rest of the world via controlling Moldova.

2) Promising to use Ukraine as their private military polo field to do it.

Is it possible that Moscow is bluffing? Can this be mere bluster?

My guess is no, they are confident that they can sew up the Black Sea and Central Asia, forcing Turkey to become a compliant client of their Persian junior-partners. In such manner Putin the Great fulfills the fondest dream of his predecessor, Peter the Great: a Russian gateway to the Mediterranean.

Aug 25, 2008 - 6:16 pm 262. Bob Murphy:

I love your attempt to attribute British Empire to altruism, Fletcher.
But there was always a quid in it for the Poms and when y’all couldn’t make a quid out of it any more you folded your tents and went home.
And that includes “East of Suez”. Remember? And the consequences? The US has been footing the bill ever since.
As for the UK’s armed forces…the country has good troops but lacks the equipment and the will to use them effectively.
And that is nothing recent. I used to operate with the Bundeswehr (German Army) in the 60s in a Long Range Recon Patrol Company and we were always incredulous at the poor equipment of the Britsh Army of the Rhine even then.
Basra encapsulates the UK problem quite well. Poor squaddies had bugger all air-support, were more concerned about casualties than doing the job and then betrayed Iraqis and the US by doing an underhanded deal with Iranian proxies and thugs in Basra and slunk out with their tails between their legs.
If the UK goes any more euro-weenie than it is now, it will be of no consequence in the greater scheme of things. Part of the problem, not the solution.

Aug 25, 2008 - 6:22 pm 263. fedya:

In other words, this drum beat of provocations is a run up to either a very big war, or a very big change in the world’s balance of power.

Aug 25, 2008 - 6:24 pm 264. Bob Murphy:

Not necessarily at all if we meet the challenge now and nip it in the bud, Fedya.
It’s appeasing it that will allow a build up to something bigger, unless Russia collapses of its own internal rot first.
Russia is running on gas revenue. The damn Germans need to take a clue from the Frogs and get happening with nuclear reactors. Their city buildings are full of steam radiators and it probably doesn’t matter whether the boilers are gas fired or electric.
Turn off their easy money and they’re stuffed.

Aug 25, 2008 - 6:35 pm 265. Lifeofthemind:

@2×4 et al Re: Katyn,
I posted sometime in thelast week or so that the problem with Germany after WW-I was they got away with nursing the stabbed in the back theory because they were never occupied beyond the Rhine crossings. All they had to do was sign Article 131 of the Treaty accepting war guilt and the victors joined them in quickly repudiating that. In 1946 there was no doubt in anyone’s mind who had lost and why, so the defeated could be thoroughly reformed. It is my hope that 2010 for Russia resembles 1946 more than it does 1919 for Germany. Iraq also would have been better off if we had flooded the country with troops and really rebuilt it.

@Bob Murphy, Correct about the oil fields.

@fedya, You made the point better than I did.

Aug 25, 2008 - 6:39 pm 266. fedya:

@Bob Murphy:
nip it in the bud

From your keyboard to God’s ears!

Aug 25, 2008 - 6:40 pm 267. NahnCee:

Rune = Ruin

Freudian slip?

Aug 25, 2008 - 6:41 pm 268. Lifeofthemind:

@Bob Murphy, The RN always a good reputation with us for professionalism, training and equipment. Their biggest problem being that they are to few and ridiculously under gunned. A 4″ gun is almost useless. The Iranian speedboat incident is certainly the worst day for British forces since the fall of Singapore. For their Army squaddies and officers have a fine reputation when allowed to fight. Hope that some of them get to run for Parliament now and straighten their country out. Basra was shameful.

Aug 25, 2008 - 6:49 pm 269. JFSanders:

@Buddy

Did your Sis get back to you on that link? I think you posted some of what she said in a earlier post.

The world is just a bigger version of your neighborhood when you were growing up. If you don’t fight the bully then you will BOHICA for ever.

Jim

Aug 25, 2008 - 7:10 pm 270. Lifeofthemind:

Did everyone see this?
France to take long look at Afghan mission

Aug 25, 2008 - 7:12 pm 271. Meanwhile, in the Black Sea...(The Sanity Inspector):

[...] Navy and Coast Guard(!) are somewhat in harm’s way. Wretchard’s got the story: “The vanguard includes the Burke-class destroyer McFaul (pictured)and the armed Coast Guard [...]

Aug 25, 2008 - 7:41 pm 272. 2x4:

LOTM, a long look is fine. Afraid, though, they may come to wrong conclusions.

Aug 25, 2008 - 7:46 pm 273. Bob Murphy:

Lifeofthemind, I totally agree about the ethos and seamanship of the RN but the civilians totally dominate professional military types and that means they end up with warships with aluminum superstructures and other sorts of insanity. And it is unlikely that civilian apparatchiks will fight for their men and their service like a good officer will.
The RAF also has some great, professional people. They used to refuel a lot of our aircraft in the air (maybe still do) and if they hadn’t been consummately professional and always on the job at the right spot our guys would have been swimming ’round in the dark.
It must be heartbreaking for their military people, as well as backstabbing to us and to western civilisation and its core/traditional beliefs the way UK government priorities are set.
And now there is an exodus of Britons trying to get away from the insanity of the whole situatio including the Muslim no-go areas and creeping euro-weenieism.

Aug 25, 2008 - 8:44 pm 274. 3Case:

“And they said America is stretched too thin.

Again…cover and concealment are continuous.

Aug 25, 2008 - 8:45 pm 275. cedarford:

Whiskey:
Cedarford ignores that Putin is aiming to kill a lot of Americans through proxy nuclear attacks on the US continental soil by Iran. That’s why Russia is helping Iran nuke up.

Riiiight! The “Secret Nuclear War Plot” Iran and Russia are working on to blow up America and leave Our Special Friend Israel – helpless! Helpless!
About on the same level of credibility as saying Putin has a plot to flouridate America’s water with Iranian water treatment engineers and thus “destroy our precious bodily fluids”.
Russia is building two light water reactors after America refused to. They don’t make plutonium suitable for bombs, and the IAEA will monitor fuel burnup and the fuel assemblies storage. America once wanted to build 38 reactors in Iran, and most of their nuclear engineers in Iran, in exile in Europe and at US nuke facilities – were trained in American universities.

=====================
Lifeofthemind:
The putative status of these 30,000 or so South Ossetians that Russia is threatening WW-V for.. appears as fraudulent…

God spare us Neocon nutbaggers and the dwindling pack of fans still licking their balls. Who are obligated to use their deranged Podhoretz terminology that WWIII actually happened, WWIV is ongoing though under 10,000 infidels have been killed in it since 9/11 in that “terrible global war”. Now we are up to WWV??? Over a Border War?

Next up, the Neocon manipulators will be saying the the 19th Century’s wars for colonian Empire were actually WW0, and the wars of decolonialization after WWII were actually WWII and a I/II.

Coisty – Spengler at his forum: What irks me the most is that the decisive mis-step by the West — the independence of Kosovo — was done to establish a “partnership with the Muslim world,” as Sen. Biden wrote at the time. In pursuit of an illusion, the West sacrificed what might have been a partnership with Russia.

Spengler Forum

Spengler is, presumably, a Jewish American. He seems to be one of the few non-Europeans to understand the importance of Kosovo/Serbia.

It is possible, but not likely Spengler is Jewish, as he is a harsh critic of Zionism and manipulation of America to back Zionist goals.

But he was right, tilting with the Muslim invaders of the Serbian Homeland and awarding them a chuck of it, in the war and in negating drawn Borders to recognize Kosovo as ripped away from Serbia – infuriated Russia, making payback against the West and juggling of other borders inevitable.
Many in Europe recognized this, Americans, drunk on the Neocon’s assertion that we were the unchallenged Hegemon of the planet out to do endless wars to bring “freedom!!” – did not.
================
Lifeofthemind – There is no natural or legitimate reason for Russian forces to be permitted south of 44° N.

And your reason for claiming the American forces, on the other hand – have natural, legitimate reasons to be “permitted” by other nations to be north, south, east and west of it’s natural boundaries all over the planet – is…..what??

Aug 25, 2008 - 9:33 pm 276. Gary Rosen:

Q: Have C-fudd, Pat Buchanan, and Justin Raimondo ever been seen at the same place at the same time?

A: Only at the glory holes.

Aug 25, 2008 - 9:44 pm 277. RAH:

Just as I forecasted US Navy and 4 Turkish ships with other NATO naval forces are in the Black Sea and Ivan no longer gets the privilege of having the Black Sea as its own bathtub.

The Turkish cooperation is key and have a delicate touch allows them to leave peacefully with their large neighbor.

Aug 25, 2008 - 9:56 pm 278. RAH:

The extreme threats of last February by Putin and Medevev and now his generals are troubling. Russia could not sustain a real conventional war with the US. Their economy is fragile and subject to massive shocks if they lose their markets to sell oil and gas. They have not reinvested the oil wealth into their oil infrastructure and their fields’ are 60 % depleted. The engineering is poor and it cost more to get more oil out of 60% depleted fields. The US capped of fields at 50% when the price was under 40/barrel. Once Pelosi lets go those wells will be put back into production.

Bush had been more speak softly and carrying a big stick. Russia is like a scared kid holding a bat for defense and screaming how he is going to kill us. Typical schoolroom bully.

I do not see how their helping their cause, helps the US

Aug 25, 2008 - 10:07 pm 279. cedarford:

Gary Rosen:
Q: Have C-fudd, Pat Buchanan, and Justin Raimondo ever been seen at the same place at the same time?

A: Only at the glory holes.

Yeah, and Gary Rosen is living proof that Jonathan Pollard has internet privileges at his jail.

Gary’s talk of glory holes is expected. From some strange genetic quirk, like prediliction to Tay-Sachs, Ashkenazi Jews have a rate of being born homosexuals 6 times greater than other ethnicities.

Aug 25, 2008 - 10:55 pm 280. bobal:

You got to get up early in the morning to pull one over on Buddy Larsen.

Aug 25, 2008 - 11:01 pm 281. buddy larsen:

i once had a job at a window shade factory. pulled down about 500 a week.

Yuk yuk –hey, i just checked in –wot did i do to desrve the props?

Aug 25, 2008 - 11:56 pm 282. Fletcher Christian:

Mr. Murphy, I agree with just about every word you said. I might add a few of my own. We don’t spend more money on our military because we can’t afford it. And why not? Because one of the major parties – Labour – spends most of each of its terms of office recruiting extra government workers (and adding extra levels of bureaucracy to “justify” them) in order to increase its support among the voters. (If you are a government employee in Britain at the moment and vote anything but Labour, you need a psychiatrist.) And then the population finally sees through this, and chucks them out – and the next lot have too much of a mess to clean up, and are too interested in keeping their own featherbedded jobs, to really do what’s necessary in the time available.

Along with that, both major parties continue to wreck our educational system, probably to ensure that there aren’t enough people in Britain with the education to see through the bent statistics and illogical arguments, full of holes, that constitute “political debate” in today’s Britain. Guy Fawkes had a point.

Britain in 2008 is a country that could be great, strangled in red tape and carrying legions of utterly useless – in fact damaging – parasites instead of real legions. Just to illustrate the point a little more, at the moment the RN has twice as many admirals as ships. I wish I could do something about it – but there’s only one of me.

Aug 26, 2008 - 12:08 am 283. bobal:

wot is an archaic spelling Buddy, but you did good on my test:)

Aug 26, 2008 - 12:11 am 284. buddy larsen:

I just read a piece from Stratfor, detailing the sequences around Kosovo –i gotta admit –USA could hardly have handled that worse. And can’t blame it all on Clinton, either, as the independence partition was Bush. I think west ignored Russia’s feelings due to pent up piss off over all the misery USSR dealt out. Stratfor reminds, it was Yeltsin whom we dissed –and that’s what brought in Putin & the ultranationalists. jeez –now he tells us –

Bloomberg just reported –a minute ago –North Korea announces it is suspending the dismantling of it’s nukes –reason given, USA violations of the agreement. Man alive –what’s going on here –

Aug 26, 2008 - 12:15 am 285. Gary Rosen:

Like Raimondo bwahaha? Obviously I hit Fudd where it hurts.

Aug 26, 2008 - 1:00 am 286. Gary Rosen:

“Obviously I hit Fudd where it hurts.”

On second thought, I take that back, like Pat I doubt if he feels anything there.

Aug 26, 2008 - 1:01 am 287. truth speaker:

it is really funny to see how historical facts were manipulated in west media.

you have to remember guys, south osetia never been part of Georgia state – never ever.
Abkhazia – same story.
in fact – people of these regions were in long term war with georgians. These two regions joined Russian imperia independently from Georgia.
after bolshevist coup in 1917, after ussr was founded south osetia and abkhazia were assigned to Georgia administratively to simplify reporting and control after population.
reason was that significant part of the year south regions were unreachable for north osetia communist administration. in a winter time mountains are closed.
also, Georgian establishment had an old dream to grab these territories – even before socialists took control over the Russia.
last and not least – stalin personally made this decision and he was georgian …

so it looks like guys – you are defending decisions made by belsheviks regime and personally by stalin.
how funny..

in the beginning of 90s Georgia declared withdrawal from ussr – that is OK osetians said.
you go – we will stay…

what is happening here – force incorporation of osetians into the Georgia…
almost 20 years these guys are resisting to this force incorporation into Georgia saying that they are independent from Georgia and they have nothing to do with this state.

u.s. is punishing them for this decision.
as simple as that.

Aug 26, 2008 - 2:09 am 288. 2x4:

Tell me, what language do you think was used for naming Sochi, Sukhumi, Tskhinvali? There are several villages in Abkhazia that have Abkhazian names. All larger towns and cities have Georgian names. There is only handful of local names in S Ossetia that are Ossetian, the rest is Georgian names. If what you saying is true, please explain how is it possible that almost all the localities have Georgian names and are known by these names for centuries?

Aug 26, 2008 - 2:21 am 289. Bob Murphy:

Nice point, 2×4.

Aug 26, 2008 - 3:18 am 290. Ricardo:

Why is it that some people worry incessantly about something we did or did not do as the cause of Russian misconduct, or that if we had done this or that differently, Russians might have reacted in a better way?
That is a perverted form of provincialism.
The Russians are following their own internal dynamic. I just finished reading the book on Litivenko’s assasination written by Alex Goldfarb (and Litivenko’s wife), and it details the rise and fall of the oligarchs as well as the rise of Putin and the FSB. The entire Georgia operation (misinformation dissemination, violent undercover operations to provoke justification for reprisals, be it invasions of adjacent territories, or elimination of political adversaries, etc) is a replay of what has been going on inside Russia since the early nineties. This is SOP for Russian politicians.
Forget the injured national pride, yadda yadda, THIS is how each of their leaders rises to power. They dispose of any perceived rival by any means available, including the murder of civilians, and when they reach the top they play the game on a larger scale.

Aug 26, 2008 - 4:55 am 291. truth speaker:

well, it actually does not prove anything at all.
for instance, tskhinvali is also known as chreba within osetians…
georgia kingdom was stronger in military terms, georgians had better developed state and corresponding governmental structures. osetians were considered as savage people. there was a big deal of georgian chauvinism regarding these people.
georgian kingdom was actively assimilating abkhazians and osetians.
for instanse, even during soviet rule – abkhazian language was banned. everything had to be written in georgian language only. osetian and abkhazian schools were banned. education was allowed in georgian only.
interesting, that it was contradicting general soviet standards.
everywhere in ussr, national republics had two official languages – russian and local.
local language was legally enforced everywhere – official paperwork, street plates e.t.c..
everywhere, but georgia..

Aug 26, 2008 - 6:28 am

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