71 Comments

1. Gringo:

If Afghanistan will be cut off from resupply, then we may have to consider some quarantine of Pakistan.

Aug 25, 2008 - 11:28 pm 2. wretchard:

With a clear strategic goal based on national self-interest, a setback in one arena would be balanced by a gain in another. But when the goal of policy is to achieve something so specific as the arrest of a single man or group of men, it is no longer statecraft but policework. A nation can pursue its goals in many ways. But a criminal can only apprehended in one way.

Aug 25, 2008 - 11:34 pm 3. Eggplant:

If Afghanistan becomes logistically inaccessible to conventional military power then it stands to reason that the Taliban and al Qaeda will eventually regain power there. Once again, Afghanistan would become the world’s cesspool. It is interesting to note that the restrictions imposed upon conventional military power would have no real impact upon terrorist organizations employing 4th generation warfare out of Afghanistan (perhaps this is Putin’s intention?). Add to the mix that Pakistan’s government appears to be failing (the Taliban “tail” is starting to wag the Pakistan “dog”). The nightmare scenario of the Taliban/al Qaeda controlling Pakistani nukes is no longer unreasonable.

One could counter argue that the Russians don’t want to see their own Islamic fascists accessing nuclear weapons through al Qaeda. However the Afghanistan based Islamic fascists would almost certainly take out Israel and Western Europe before they started playing with the Russians. The Russians would have ample time to subject Afghanistan/Pakistan to nuclear sterilization.

Aug 25, 2008 - 11:36 pm 4. wretchard:

With the US out of Afghanistan, there is a good chance the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), an anti-Jihadi organization of Eurasian States will either crush the Taliban or tolerate them for as long as they only attack America. The shape of alliances in the 21st century is becoming clear. I wonder though, how much of this is even on the radar in Denver, caught up as it is on carbon trading, global warming, change and hope. Maybe the oceans will start to fall. Maybe the earth will start to heal. But nobody said the West had to be around to witness it.

Aug 25, 2008 - 11:45 pm 5. wretchard:

The Washington Post reports on the DNC convention like it was Oscar night, with the same air of anticipation at the unexpected. This at a convention after the primaries.

DENVER, Aug. 25 — Democrats opened their convention here Monday night with an air of expectation and a sense of uncertainty. They have come to Denver ready to make history with their nomination of Barack Obama for president, but they are nonetheless nervous about what has become a fiercely competitive general-election race against John McCain. Opening night began the job of filling out Obama’s profile for skeptical voters, but what it lacked was any effort to frame for the electorate the choices in November or the case against the Republican candidate.

How does it happen that a candidate for President of the United States can arrive at his own party’s convention a mystery man to the delegates. Something is wrong with this picture. How can it be that after acres of newsprint, tons of ink and miles of videotape have been expended on him he is still unknown. Churchill once wrote, “In wartime, truth is so precious that she should always be attended by a bodyguard of lies.” But is politics wartime?

Aug 25, 2008 - 11:55 pm 6. Cannoneer No. 4:

Red Ball Express Rides Again?

Aug 25, 2008 - 11:58 pm 7. Cannoneer No. 4:

Convoy Security RFI

Sounds like a job for . . . . Blackwater!

Aug 26, 2008 - 12:02 am 8. Cannoneer No. 4:

Listen to your Loggy Toads

Aug 26, 2008 - 12:03 am 9. Cannoneer No. 4:

Beyond the Khyber Pass

Aug 26, 2008 - 12:05 am 10. Cannoneer No. 4:

Pakistan mob burns two APCs set for U.S. Afghan force

Aug 26, 2008 - 12:13 am 11. cedarford:

Right now, it is more a case of the US crippling it’s own logistics paths then Russia and Pakistan fecklessly deciding it may not be in their national interests to have trainload and truck covoys full of American military personnel & supplies going through their lands.

No sooner than Russia had invited the US to use it’s territory to get at the people who did 9/11 than they learned the US was promptly negotiating in the ‘Stans for oil pipeline deals and strategic minerals not to go to Russia, but through lands the US had a say in. Then we hit Russia with proposals to move NATO to it’s borders, meddled in Ukraine and Georgian elections, announced we were setting up NATO antimissile bases near it’s Northern Border to deal with the “Urgent Iranian missile threat”. And we continued to harbor it’s oligarch thieves that looted Russia under Yeltsin, while berating Russia regularly for human rights violations, loving Saddam, etc.
The last straw was blowing off Russia, yet again, when they had told us point blank the days of the US screwing them were ending - by recognizing Kosovo and new borders.

And also done some things that have pissed some of the ‘Stans off to the point where we have been run out of Bases of one country and are close to getting tossed from another - mainly over neocon lectures delivered on their moral inadequacies.

Pakistan, we bribed an unpopular military dictator and the people never saw a cent, we signed the Indian-American nuclear agreement while keeping Pakistan (as it should be) on the shitlist, and infuriated most Pakistanis by invading Iraq and continuing to give carte blanche to Israel.

And inside Afghanistan, have again lied our asses off about pledges to bring development and security. Causing the Taliban to resurge to fill the power vacuum and create economic and legal order from the chaos that existed for 7 years outside of eyesight of US bases or Karzai’s little Potemkin Village set-up in Kabul of “freedom and democracy” for VIP visitors to applaud.

Somehow, the neocons thought that those actions would magically have no effect on Afghanistan logistics. That as the Hegemon, with Bush the Maximum Beloved war Leader of the New American Empire, we could do as we wished and all would salute - fearing that not eating the American shit sandwiches dispensed would lead to retaliation by the supreme global power as “terrahist, Islamofascist-lovers”.

Things sure have changed…..

But if our logistics are cut, it might do America and NATO a huge favor by allowing a withdrawal from an endless war with the Pashtuns without anyone thinking the Islamoids themselves defeated us. Which would allow the military to begin rebuilding from the personnel and equipment wreckage Bush caused it. Recuperate and get its capacity back in case Iran does turn into an intractable problem needing a military solution in the next Administration or the one following that Administration.

Of course the downside is that a million, primitive radical Islamists allied with Karzai will demand to come as refugees into the United States as wealthy (from US taxpayer bribes) “democratic freedom-lovers” who did nothing to stop the Taliban, but who were “loyal friends of America”.

Aug 26, 2008 - 12:22 am 12. Cannoneer No. 4:

The March Down Country promises to be either a a reenactment of Gandamak or Chosin Reservoir times ten.

Is there in Afghanistan right now a new Chesty Puller?

Aug 26, 2008 - 12:34 am 13. Cannoneer No. 4:

6,000 sailors, Marines will deploy with Iwo Jima group this week

Aug 26, 2008 - 12:47 am 14. Cannoneer No. 4:

Observing the Iwo Jima Expeditionary Strike Group

Aug 26, 2008 - 12:51 am 15. SamIam:

Information Understanding Request, how come oil keeps dropping? The demand has not dropped and tensions on the supply routes have gone up! Not down and supposedly the reasons for the astronomical price spike was A. there was more demand for crude oil then what was being extracted from the ground (and now Saudi Arabia is starting to call for a cut back on oil production.) B. Refineries were at maximum ability and only new ones would relieve the inability to process any more extracted crude. There are other factors too, but why has oil stopped going up? Was this a “roll Uncle SAM” financial game or are the numbers being cooked somewhere that caused an artificial run up? there were only a few place/people that received the massive profits (not the American Oil companies, they have already been investigated) from the triple price increase. Did someone pull out a secert weapon and threaten to use it?(i.e. a different proven cheap form of energy) Now that oil is so high will it ever fall back to the $35~45 a barrel?

Aug 26, 2008 - 12:57 am 16. ledger:

I agree with Cannoneer No. 4 in that the situation is time sensitive. Blackwater is an option but they always have to have the heavy stuff at their backs - as in airpower.

We knew that Pakistan would become unstable after fair weather friend Musharraf exited the scene.

Although an unpleasant thought, it may be time for a regime change in Iran and a tougher stance on Pakistan’s sheltering of terrorists.

Georgia is probably not going to self heal. It would be a bad place to make a stand – although we can help with the supply of weapons. We could do much better in Iran.

If Iran can be converted from a tyrannical state to one that is actively helping the USA then we will have turned the tables on the Russians. Further we would have made huge gains on the energy side of the equation.

I believe we should keep the Russians mired down in their own back yard and clean out Iran.

Aug 26, 2008 - 1:07 am 17. whiskey:

Cedarford, NATO is as scary as a troop of Boy Scouts. They couldn’t fight their way out of a paper bag. Russia knew damn well what the ABM was for, their Iranian buddies nukes and ICBMS aimed at Europe, as Iran assumes the role of Europe’s Muslims “protector.”

What’s left out of your little tale is the deal Putin cut with Iran and AQ after Beslan. They laid off assistance to the Chechens. He pulverized (eventually) Chechnya. In return, Russia was useful to Iran and AQ, providing the former with protection and nuclear assistance. The latter with useful intel and training.

Russia’s only hope of being an irrelevant obscurity conquered by China and/or Muslims from the South is setting the Muslim world against America in nuclear exchanges and play LAST MAN STANDING. Which is Putin’s whole goal. Putin’s whole AIM is to get IRAN TO NUKE THE US. Kill a few US cities and let Iran get destroyed in return. Russia is the LAST MAN STANDING as a major military power.

There never was, and never could be, a “deal” with Russia or Putin that would have ever held. Russia was bound to produce a semi-competent leader who would realize that was his only strategic card. It is quite true Bush is lazy, stupid, and incapable of rallying the Nation to confront the threat of nuclear proliferation which is a mortal threat to our cities. But there never was a deal.

Pakistan? It’s a collection of tribes with a flag and nukes. That’s it. Looking for a long-term deal THERE was stupid as well. Stupid for Bush, stupid for Dems.

Iraq can be supplied by the SEA. Tit-for-tat, hit Putin’s Iranian buddies hard with air power to destroy their infrastructure. Recognize the independent nations of Baluchistan, Azeristan, and Arab-stan. Encourage the Baluchis in Pakistan as well to fight (give the Pakistanis a big freaking dose of their own medicine). Provide “military assistance” to the break-away regions, which are oil rich, and continue to keep Iran’s remaining regions (Persian) without power, roads, or communication. They can’t make nukes without all three, and though they spread everything out, that means each part is useless by itself. Moving them by bicycle and donkey won’t cut it either. Without oil, and the money it brings in, the whole regime of thugs collapses as the remaining Persians in a truncated Iran play “loot your neighbor.”

If we have to leave Afghanistan (and we will), make a pile of trouble and pain for EVERYONE ELSE. Leave Iran crippled and with the loss of provinces populated by non-Persians. Give Pakistan a going away present of a permanent raging insurgency of it’s own.

With an “American Doctrine” of automatic strategic response to Pakistan down to the village level, with the promise of no more Pakistanis left alive, should an American city be nuked. Then visibly create enough nukes “extra” just for that purpose.

Aug 26, 2008 - 1:12 am 18. whiskey:

Wretchard –

Two things: Obama is still fairly obscure, all the Dem Faithful know is he’s Black, Young, Hip, Famous, a Celebrity, and a Radical. For them it’s always 1968, even though … there aren’t many young people any more.

They are nervous that most Americans won’t like him (or them) though. They can console themselves if he loses that “America is Racist” which is their favorite chant.

Dems are wholly unsuited for anything having to deal with situations outside the US and say, Switzerland and Canada. They are like children, convinced that the hot stove won’t burn them. Hope and Change will fix Pakistan right up! Afghanistan too! We’ll just apologize and then have one giant interfaith “healing” ceremony.

Aug 26, 2008 - 1:21 am 19. Cannoneer No. 4:

wretchard,

The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation is more of an anti-American organization than an anti-Jihadi organization. With the US out of Afghanistan SCO will have accomplished its mission. The member ’stans will peddle their energy to Moscow or Beijing, whoever is the highest bidder or the hardest ball player.

They know in Tashkent what happened in Georgia.

They know in Turkestan that Putin has pay back coming his way.

Aug 26, 2008 - 1:22 am 20. Cannoneer No. 4:

US consulate officer escapes unhurt in Peshawar firing

Aug 26, 2008 - 1:35 am 21. Cannoneer No. 4:

U.S. Consulate Peshawar Principal Officer Lynne Tracy

Aug 26, 2008 - 1:36 am 22. Wadeusaf:

Turkmenistan, by Caspian Sea from Azerbaijan and Turkey or Georgia. That is a long and tedious line of supply, even with Russian acquiescence. Without it…ouch.

Aug 26, 2008 - 3:28 am 23. Aether:

There may be substitutes for shipping fuel from anywhere, thus eliminating a least some of the logistics train…

A very good suggestion of producing biodiesel in Afghanistan was explored by several
commentors:

–snip–

Mike_B had posted on Jul 25, 2008 - 6:30 pm

“Yields in gal/acre:

corn 18
hemp 39
soybean 48
safflower 83
sunflower 102
peanuts 113
opium poppy 124
rapeseed 127
olive 129
oil palm 635

source:
http://journeytoforever.org/biodiesel_yield.html#ascend

Before you get into lye and alcohol needed for transesterification, consider that this oil will run straight from the press if it is preheated to lower the viscosity. Diesel engines get hot.
Run the coolant through your 55 gallon drum supply tanks = hot fuel.

Use a little lye and alcohol and you have straight diesel to kick start the process.

Their are African countries using this process for electricity right now….

…Americans are making Biodiesel out of soybeans (check it’s position on the list and selling it as commercial biodiesel for at least the same price as diesel. I think they call it B-1.

Notice the yield of opium poppy vs. soybean on that list.”
—————-
While, I don’t believe that buying the poppy crop and converting it to fuel would provide the large amount of fuel required, it could make a good dent, AND help disengage those poppy farmers from the Taliban

Reduce fuel requirements by reducing NATO manpower deployed in Afghanistan and producing bio-fuels (and other alternative sources) locally may be part of the answer.

other possibilities:

Protect convoys in Pakistan ??? w/UAV’s ?

Alternative route into Afghanistan is via… IRAN.

Aug 26, 2008 - 3:48 am 24. Bob Murphy:

Cripes!
If we let Russia get away with anything in Georgia, Ukraine or the Baltics we become the weak horse and cred goes to buggery in the ‘Stans and Pakistan as well as Iran.
If Russia turns the screws against our supply line to Afghanistan it encourages the islamists to have a go at Russia too but that’s later.
Pakistan is a disaster area and we can’t let those nukes escape if the Pakis go belly up.
And if we do that we’ve got to destroy Al Qaeda and the Taliban in the Paki tribal areas quickly.
Sounds like it’s got to be Iran. Soon.
And that includes taking out their one big refinery, all naval bases and then imposing a naval blockade to keep them from getting petrol and diesel fuel.

What a neighborhood.

Reminds me of Ambrose Bierce and his line about “War is God’s way of teaching Americans geography”.

Aug 26, 2008 - 4:33 am 25. RAH:

The loss of Pakistan as a supply route has been happening within the last year as Pakistan has been losing to Baitullah Mehsud. Peshawar is in serious danger from Taliban and Mehsud. Quite possible that Peshawar can be taken or threatened. The infiltration of Taliban agents’ area problem.

Once Musharaff lost control after the Battle at the Red Mosque and the new elections were called it was obvious that we lost the Pakistan as an ally. Sharif has been pro Taliban and radical Islam and kicked out the country because of that, years ago. Zadairi was known as the 10% man since he collected 10% on all transactions.

Pakistan is a failing country. US have been making incursions over the border and Pakistan has not been complaining. Some Pakistani troops have been killed in border clashed since they are part of Taliban forces. Very tricky for our forces. Special Forces have been working the border territories and have local intelligence.

Without good intelligence it is difficult to track Taliban and Taliban often kills locals who give us information. There is a tribal war going on in the Northwest Territories.

So the lost of the supply route has been a problem and the NATO forces in the last 5 years allowed Taliban forces to solidify gains. There has been a stronger effort to kill Taliban in Afghanistan by US and British forces. But the breakout of the prisoners was a very good effort and released a lot of Taliban best fighters. We need to chance the policy to less prisoners and more dead Taliban.

Afghanistan is a losing proposition, but the new Afghan government does help and is a better group but never had control over more than its capital.

The madrassas’ in Pakistan churn out fighters and Musharaff needed to shut those down to stop the supply of jihadist fighters but he never had enough control. ISI was playing all sides and constantly working against him. The new coalition will never hold. Chaos in Pakistan. We can use that small window to hit Taliban on the border as much as possible but cannot expect help from the Pakistanis.

Aug 26, 2008 - 5:14 am 26. Lifeofthemind:

Jimmy Carter should be publicly bitch slapped for his screwing the Shah. All this has flowed from that. We need to secure the nukes and as many of the technicians as possible. We need to convince them that we are willing and able to destroy every building cave and out-house in Waziristan. If that means carpeting it with 80 20kt nukes then so be it.

Aug 26, 2008 - 6:38 am 27. elfman2:

The logistical problem is solved if we just properly inflate our tiers.

Aug 26, 2008 - 7:08 am 28. elfman2:

Oops: Inflate or “tires” not “tiers”

Aug 26, 2008 - 7:12 am 29. Charles:

I think they should figure out how to get most of their non weaponized stores from afghanistan like oil food and clothing and thereby also create a local economy around same and then pull some string in dubai to increase demand for local stores.

Aug 26, 2008 - 8:19 am 30. Paul:

This Afghan logistics problem illustrates all too clearly that we are very likely on the verge of a huge complex war or at least, a long, very dangerous, ominous and expensive ongoing confrontation with a multitude of inter-related flashpoints and battlefields .

But our biggest problem isn’t the logistics. Our biggest problem is the politics. The American public is not prepared for this war. Short of a nuclear attack on an American City, the American public will not get behind the strategies and tactics needed for this war, unless we have a President who is able and willing to explain the stakes for America and what is necessary to win.

The logistics can likely be solved by America if there is the political will in America to solve them.

The biggest failure of the Bush Presidency has been GWB’s disturbing reluctance to adequately explain our challenges and their solutions. We have heard almost nothing for him regarding what is at stake in Georgia. No wonder Georgia is almost absent in the news

To solve any problem, you must first adequately define it. In fact in problem solving theory, most solutions are easily solved if defined correctly. Our politicians, particularly Bush, refuse to define the problem.

However, this war is much more complex than even what we faced after 911. It is an enormously complex conflict to explain, with a multitude of nuances. There are numerous enemies , ranging from the jidahdists, to Iran, Russia, North Korea Venezuela, etc and their relationships complex and not completely known.

But the conversation with the American public must start and start soon. And probably we must first start with confronting our own homegrown enemy, the American defeatists.

Aug 26, 2008 - 8:43 am 31. Lifeofthemind:

@Paul,
40 years ago people were arguing that LBJ lost the Vietnam war because he refused to nationalize it. Tom Selleck spoke of how he was in the California National Guard sitting on his duffel bag at LAX when Johnson decided not to use the Guard in Vietnam. In WW-II we had people in Iowa putting up blackout curtains and collective scrap that cost more to collect than it could possibly benefit war production. The point was the whole nation went to war.

After 9-11 Hollywood producers offered to make Why We fight films and Ellison of Oracle offered to produce ID cards for free. Instead Bush channeled Warren Harding and began preaching “Normalcy.” We knew we were in trouble when late night comics started making jokes about guys telling girls they must have sex or “the terrorists will have won.” We can mobilize this country. We can go to war, not send a few units around a game board but as a country, as a nation, goes to war. When we do so we do so not like McClellan’s army of nuanced mauever getting boxed in on the James river but as US Grant did smashing everything in our path. We can do this two or three or seven times until dumb thugs in both shitty little countries and big ones decide that it is a real bad idea to tweak the eagle. Then we can go home to drink Coca Cola™ and eat to much until the next time they insist on making their problems ours.

Aug 26, 2008 - 9:17 am 32. Eggplant:

Lifeofthemind said:

“Jimmy Carter should be publicly bitch slapped for his screwing the Shah. All this has flowed from that.”

No argument that Carter bungled the Shah. However Carter is yesterday’s news. If you want to bitch slap someone then bitch slap B. Hussein. He’ll repeat Carter’s failed policies.

Aug 26, 2008 - 9:28 am 33. Lifeofthemind:

@Eggplant,
The left always wants to set the parameters for the discussion. Of course once they have determined the agenda and the allowable terminology has been predefined there really is nothing else to say. It is like trying to discuss wine with the French after you have already agreed with their ground rules. Right now the Obama camp is trying to create a rule that no one can mention Ayers or Rezco or Wright. They also want to be sure that all the failed leaders of the past from the Democrats who created the current problems such as Carter and Ted Kennedy are only described in suitably sentimental terms. By cutting away the roots that Obama comes from we leave him exposed. Obama has no achievements on his own. He is merely the agent of those who groomed and propelled him. To focus on him and ignore this background is as useless as engaging the Great and Powerful Oz when we should be pulling the plug on those behind the curtain. (Forgive the labored analogy, not meaning to push it as a conspiracy as much as a phenomenon.)

Aug 26, 2008 - 9:45 am 34. Ben Franklen:

You know I was going to respond to C4 but I couldn’t find a rational thought in his whole diatribe that seemed worthy of spending the time upon. It is kind of like trying to dissect a Michael Moore documentary. It isn’t even useful as an intellectual exercise because it is basically a house of fallacies built on a foundation of lies… kind of like a set of Babushka dolls made from laminated layers of Pravda or the New York Times. Better I spend my time shoveling sand with a fork.

Contrary to the general wisdom, Putin is not a very bright boy. He is basically a KGB trained serial killer who has managed to murder and intimidate his way to a lifetime position at the top of a country with a predilection for mass murderers and strongmen. If he was at all rational he would have helped the US with their missile defense shield and accepted an offer to share the technology. The Russians are every bit as threatened by a rogue nuke or by a small-time, budding nuclear power as the US is but Putin ignores the threat to his own people in favor of trying to stir up some half-baked grievance with the sole remaining superpower. And in the eyes of some people this makes him intellectually if not morally superior to Bush? Indeed, the Soviets blamed Star Wars and the arms race for their downfall and here we were offering it to them on a silver platter but they preferred our enmity instead. Telling don’t you think?

Putin also seems to think that helping a country led by a member of a messianic death cult to acquire nuclear weapons is somehow in Russia’s best interest. He is so blinded by his hate of the west (or anyone who would gainsay him in any way) that he never even stops to consider the fact that the cult he is arming considers everyone who isn’t a Muslim to be sub-human. Just because it is useful to them to kiss up to the Russians now doesn’t mean that Mrs. Putin (whoever she may be at the time) won’t be wearing a veil when all is said and done.

If one wants to talk about pursuing policies with frightful consequences which bring no benefit to the country pursuing them then it would be hard to trump the Russian misadventure in Ossettia. Not only was his intended audience not frightened by the bullying but they have rallied together against the bully. Cedarford would have us believe that Putin is just misunderstood like Frankenstein’s monster, being chased around by peasants with pitchforks who wish to kill that which they do not understand. Russia is ugly and does ghastly things but it has good intentions. It would probably be more correct to say that Putin is more like the good doctor himself in that he has created the monster. He has GREATLY increased the dangers that his country faces in return for nothing but the few trinkets his army of thugs was able to loot from their small neighbor. Even the feckless western Europeans have begun to stir.

Putin’s misperception of the threats that his country faces is of a truly epic and staggering nature. He ignores the Chinese and Islamic fundamentalists, both of whom could split his country apart from within, while doing everything he can to pick a fight with his natural allies (and customers) in the west. He thinks extortion and intimidation are good long term strategies. Not only this but he attempts to employ them against nations who as a group are stronger than Russia.

He also seems to be wholly ignorant of history. Germany felt humiliated after the first world war just as Russia does now after the cold war. Germany re-armed and “liberated” ethnic Germans in nearby countries just as Russia is doing along its borders today. Both countries turned to fascism and the Germans had a deep affection for the madman who led them down the road to purgatory just as the Russians seem to be pleased with Putin (although how we would know otherwise is problematic when all of the native journalists have been cowed and the western ones gulled).

Putin still has a chance to wake up from his dream of a world where no one dares hurt his feelings and where Russia is more than just another tinhorn dictatorship trying to punch above its weight. The key will be if the west can awaken from its moral lethargy in a quicker fashion than it did with the arrival of WWII. Just because Putin has apparently never attended a history class doesn’t mean that his enemies are equally as ignorant.

Aug 26, 2008 - 10:14 am 35. NahnCee:

Wretchard - love your Russian scenario. It explains so much more than mere “hurted feelings” on the part of the Bear. Do we think that is why Putin started the Georgia thing now rather than waiting until after the elections? He’s trying to force an Iran/USA show-down?

Totten is reporting that fer shur Russia started the shooting in Ossatia, which to me means that Putin had malice aforethought.

Aug 26, 2008 - 10:16 am 36. buddy larsen:

“conspiracy vs phenomenon” yes –a helpful frame –brings to mind that there must be a third way since neither really contains the empirical. I guess the answer is in the language: “events conspire….”

yep, you’re either ‘on top of things’ or ‘behind the curve’. Taking care of business, or in over your head.

Boone Pickens says, “a fool with a plan will always beat a genius without one.”

Aug 26, 2008 - 10:25 am 37. mark_b:

Lifeofthemind:

He is merely the agent of those who groomed and propelled him. To focus on him and ignore this background is as useless as engaging the Great and Powerful Oz when we should be pulling the plug on those behind the curtain. (Forgive the labored analogy, not meaning to push it as a conspiracy as much as a phenomenon.)
Aug 26, 2008 - 9:45 am

————————–

Teh Ozbama

Aug 26, 2008 - 11:04 am 38. mark_b:

What to do if the Afghan supply chain fails.

This would be an excellent question to put to the candidates.

If it fails in the next term,Obama will delcare it “Bush’s Lost War” and fall back under media cover.

What would McCain do?

Aug 26, 2008 - 11:20 am 39. Gamer:

You should have united with the Russians when they were slaughtering Chechen Islamofascists.

Instead you ate Saudi shit. Start the learning, assholes…

Aug 26, 2008 - 11:29 am 40. NahnCee:

Gamer, you a Russian fan or a Progressive Marxist?

Aug 26, 2008 - 12:18 pm 41. Eggplant:

NahnCee asked:

“Gamer, you a Russian fan or a Progressive Marxist?”

Don’t you think he’s just a common drive-by moonbat? Not very interesting if you ask me (we’ve seen better).

Aug 26, 2008 - 12:29 pm 42. whiskey:

Ben — Putin is not stupid, merely severely constrained and ambitious.

There was zero possibility of internal reform because that would have impoverished the thug network that runs Russia. See also: Venezuela, Iran, Pakistan, Mexico, etc. Rule of law, private property, anti-corruption, all would profoundly threaten the thugs who take rather than work.

You don’t honestly expect thugs to work for a living do you?

Putin’s “Last Man Standing” strategy is the only one he could play with the constraints of thugs needing constant paydays that increase all the time, up against provocatively weak Western nations and publics.

Putin is rolling the dice that he doesn’t have to be good, perfect, or even efficient. Just “smart” in KGB-like, making Russia useful to Iran and AQ, setting them against the US (with the hoped-for loss of several US cities) so that the US is weakened, his rivals Iran and AQ destroyed (it’s pretty clear AQ had some assistance to Chechens in Beslan, Nord-Ost, the Moscow Apt. bombings), China weakened (no US customer to buoy the rural part out of poverty), and Russia the LAST MAN STANDING.

It’s risky. But it’s virtue is that it does not depend on Russia being smart and well executing plans, merely encouraging lunatic regimes in their imperial desires to attack the US.

Aug 26, 2008 - 12:43 pm 43. Mark:

Whiskey writes:

“Pakistan? It’s a collection of tribes with a flag and nukes.”

And a religion. The nation is founded on a religious identity, i.e., not Hindu. The Taliban represents religious purity (which could be admired from afar when it was in Afghanistan.)

A collection of tribes? Yes. Even the nation’s name is an acronym, composed by Jinnah.

Having somewhat secured Iraq, which will be a rich geopolitical partner, the US may have no choice but to abandon Iraq, covered by a “Russia won’t let us resupply” fig leaf. Ouch.

Maybe Intrade could help us sort out where the first nuke will go off. I suspect India.

Religion will trump all else in Pakistan and environs.

Aug 26, 2008 - 1:24 pm 44. Eggplant:

Mark, I suspect there is a significant typo in your last post. It frustrates me when I do that.

Aug 26, 2008 - 1:39 pm 45. NahnCee:

Eggplant, I thought common drive-by moonbats *were* progressive Marxists.

Back to the thread, I’m reading a common agreement here that Afghanistan is lost, and it seems to be a consensus that it’s lost because it’s simply not important enough to fight over. That our blood, sweat and tears can be put to better use, like in Pakistan or - now - in facing down Russia.

Is that really what we’re saying?

Aug 26, 2008 - 2:44 pm 46. Lifeofthemind:

@NahnCee,
That is not the consensus I see. Doing nothing means that Afghanistan is lost. We do not have the luxury of engaging in endless theoretical disputes while demanding zero casualties. We must act in response to emerging threats even when knowing that such actions are usually imperfect and messy. While doing that we must continue to also act proactively to change conditions so as to force our enemies (I hate the term adversaries) to behave in a more predictable reactive manner. Being pro-active is even more likely to provoke criticism. We have to expend ourselves in Pakistan partly because doing so supports our position in Afghanistan. We can not abandon Afghanistan because we cannot let Putin surround the oil regions. If we did pull out we would have to kill more people in leaving than we will by staying.

Aug 26, 2008 - 2:57 pm 47. Eggplant:

NahnCee said:

“I thought common drive-by moonbats *were* progressive Marxists.”

Actually, I think they’re confused..

NahnCee also said:

“I’m reading a common agreement here that Afghanistan is lost, and it seems to be a consensus that it’s lost because it’s simply not important enough to fight over. That our blood, sweat and tears can be put to better use, like in Pakistan or - now - in facing down Russia.”

This thread is almost expired, so I’ll keep it short. My reading is that Afghanistan will eventually become a no-man’s land that can not be fully occupied by either a friendly power or the enemy. IMHO, our future role in Afghanistan will be continued destruction of high value targets with Predator UAVs, introduction of Special Ops teams and occasional carpet bombings when the bad guys make the mistake of concentrating themselves. The situation will remain static until either the Indians get involved or the conflict goes nuclear.

Aug 26, 2008 - 3:01 pm 48. wretchard:

“I’m reading a common agreement here that Afghanistan is lost,

Not necessarily. But it is necessarily the case that Afghanistan must be pursued in the context of Global Strategy. Afghanistan is not a war but a front within a war. Before Coalition Forces drove out the Taliban, agencies worked against Osama Bin Laden through rival tribes. If those rival tribes still have access to American UAV firepower and military advice, the Taliban may never make a comeback. Besides, it is usually when Islamic extremists seize power that they become most politically vulnerable. Karzai is the Man; therefore all resentments flow against him. Let the Taliban once again rule Afghanistan and their popularity will plummet precipitously.

Aug 26, 2008 - 3:08 pm 49. NahnCee:

Soooo … then … is Putin desperate? And if so, why?

Aug 26, 2008 - 3:48 pm 50. Mark Maps:

Some questions:

If Pakistan is falling apart politically, what’s to stop Afghanistan from absorbing land between it and the sea? Hasn’t Putin given Karzai the roadmap and justification for doing so?

If Pakistan is falling apart politically, what’s to stop us from flying in supplies over Pakistani territory?

Aug 26, 2008 - 4:20 pm 51. Cannoneer No. 4:

Afghanistan is not lost, yet.

GEN Petraeus can work things out with General Kiyani and let him know what the deal is going to be.

The Baluchis are fighting an insurgency against the Paks and another one against the Iranians. They’d love our help, and they have a Chinese-built port they’d let us have. We could even ask the Indians to build a railroad to Afghanistan for us.

Aug 26, 2008 - 4:34 pm 52. Cannoneer No. 4:

Mark, the Afghan National Army isn’t capable of seizing and occupying Baluchistan.

Fly in supplies from where? Long way to Kuwait. Dubai to Kandahar 769 miles one way.

Aug 26, 2008 - 4:46 pm 53. Mark Maps:

Cannoneer,

I wouldn’t use the Afghan National Army. I’d buy their cooperation the way we did with many of the warlords when we took Afghanistan. Perhaps we pay them with recognition of a semi-autonomous state within Afghanistan.

Flying in supplies: We have carriers. Even Dubai to Kandahar isn’t much of a stretch to our guys.

Aug 26, 2008 - 5:04 pm 54. A Second Hand Conjecture » Logistically Untenable?:

[...] Belmont ClubWe could be forced to entirely revamp our strategy in Afghanistan if the situation in Pakistan continues to deteriorate and the Russians intend to be uncooperative. There are in fact serious concerns that troops in Afghanistan can be cut off should a hostile regime emerge in Pakistan. [...]

Aug 26, 2008 - 5:31 pm 55. cedarford:

Ben Franklen - Putin also seems to think that helping a country led by a member of a messianic death cult to acquire nuclear weapons is somehow in Russia’s best interest.

There is absolutely no evidence or even rumor that Russia is helping Iran build nuclear bombs…that is just idiot conspiracy theory spouted by you and people like Whiskey.
===================

Mark Maps - Flying in supplies: We have carriers. Even Dubai to Kandahar isn’t much of a stretch to our guys.

You don’t know much about carriers. They are fine for dropping 50 tons of bombs a day, but not the tens of thousands of tons of equipment and supplies a ground force needs.

Just try to conceptualize that carriers are unable to launch large cargo planes - and that launching cargo planes from elsewhere is at the suffereance of Russia and Pakistan (and for that matter, Europeans, allowing American military crossing it’s airspace.)

If you take the time to talk to “our guys” about losing all land supply to Afghanistan, and our limited air supply abilities limited by countries that surround Afghanistan, plus the vast distance our planes must fly from to get to Afghanistan…”our guys” will tell you point black it is not a “no problem”, but a show-stopping “big problem” they can’t overcome and maintain even present US ground troop levels in Afghanistan with.

Aug 26, 2008 - 6:43 pm 56. buddy larsen:

Hermann Goering managed to lose Sixth Army with a promise to supply it by air.

Aug 26, 2008 - 7:14 pm 57. NahnCee:

“Hermann Goering managed to lose Sixth Army with a promise to supply it by air.”

So you know history, Buddy. Don’t you think 2008 is a little bit more advanced than 1938, and the United States of America a little more able than the Nazi’s?

Sheesh, next you’ll be agreeing that Russia, China and America are equivalents, and that Islam is on the same footing as Christianity, Hinduism and Buddhism.

I’m starting to think that who-ever said “those who don’t know their history are condemned to repeat it” should be taken out behind the woodshed and shot because essentially what saying that comes down to is, “don’t move, don’t do anything, because anything we try has been done before sometime and failed.”

I’d like to replace it with a new saying: “Never NOT do something because something bad MIGHT happen as a result of it.”

Aug 26, 2008 - 7:21 pm 58. Aristide:

On another front…

Georgia: US sends warship to disputed port

A US embassy spokesman in Tibilisi said that the USS McFaull had left the southern port of Batumi to unload cargo at Poti, a handling point for commercial cargoes that Russian troops have occupied for more than a week. Russia has reserved the right to inspect cargoes at the port, raising the prospect of its military challenging the US operation to transfer the supplies of water, food and nappies to Georgian soil.

More at link.

Aug 26, 2008 - 8:48 pm 59. buddy larsen:

well, my point was, those guys were nothing if not logistics planners. They had a plan. And it worked for awhile. Sure it was 1942-43 but if anything aircraft were easier to maintain then, and the jump was only a couple hundred miles.

What happened was it went on too long, and everything degraded –the birds and crews wore out, Red Army encroached ever closer with more & better interceptors, and daily tonnage just went down and down. Sixth Army pretty much starved into submission.

But in the beginning, it was doable as all get-out. And those old Junkers trimotors were maintainable by two guys with some tacklebox tools.

Overconfidence in the airbridge had informed the decision to hold Stalingrad rather than breakout of a light encirclement while it still could. Then by the time the airbridge had to admit it couldn’t keep up, 6th Army was wintered in, weak, and the Red encirclement had grown five times stronger.

Result, total surrender, 200,000 top troops lost (half POWs, only a few thousand ever made it home, 5 or 10 years later) and dozens of divisions of best armor, transport, mech & arty, plus a thousand aircraft & crew.

Turning point of the Eastern front. What it took from German arms it gave to Russian. Whipping Fritz in a big battle –finally –set the whole Red Army and Russian people on fire for victory –rather than just survival another day.

Before Stalingrad, Hitler had the Reds back on their heels, a negotiated settlement his for the asking, which would’ve ceded him a Germany-sized hunk of Russia.

After Stalingrad, the German Army & nation were the ones wanting to survive, and the Reds wanted Berlin. Paris, Rome, London, and New York too, but that’s another story.

Hermann Goering, you see, had had that good plenary meeting, where ebullient and in fine voice, he had gained for his Luftwaffe the prize of being the savior of Sixth Army.

Aug 26, 2008 - 9:20 pm 60. NahnCee:

Yeah, well, I’ll see your Goering and raise you a Berlin airlift.

Aug 26, 2008 - 9:34 pm 61. buddy larsen:

not a good example –Berlin Airlift was an emergency operatiion –result of Reds doing an early Georgia and surprise-closing the land approaches. It worked, but at cost –a “surge” effort. When Ivan relented, he was no worse the wear, while we were panting. What you need is an example where an army initiates a similar op. at volition, delberately. Emergency salvages can’t count as they presuppose an emergency –which is precisely what we don’t want.

Look at Burma Road –the titanic effort to get away from flying the hump to supply Chinese army a few bare war-making essentials against the EOJ in WWII. So many wrecked C-47s along that high altitude flyway the guys upstairs navigated by ‘em. Another “surge” effort. “Surges” aren’t marathons –they’re sprints.

Aug 26, 2008 - 9:51 pm 62. Johnh:

Regarding the “Last Man Standing” theory: I have long believed that Russia, China and France were playing a game where they attempt to bait the U.S. into costly efforts that weaken us with little cost or risk to themselves.

Now I have no problem with our removing Saddam. Removing Saddam and the necessary rehabilitation of Iraq is a very expensive and time consuming project for the U.S.

Cultivating Saddam and growing him into a monster that we had to destroy cost Russia, the Chinese and the French nothing. All they had to do was jerk us around at the UNSC and make money selling weapons and technology to Saddam.

France, for example, understood full well that Saddam was pursuing nukes but they also understood it would be the U.S. and not France that would have to deal with Saddam’s nukes. Put another way, they would get the money for arming Saddam and we would get the body bags and the French were copacetic with that outcome.

I guess my point is that I believe that what all of these countries (i.e., Russia, et al) were up to was no more complicated that attempting to exhaust the U.S. to the point where the U.S. was just too worn out to compete AND THEN they could begin to make moves that the U.S. would require fresh energy and stamina to counter.

Put another way, Russia’s support of Iran is just geopolitical rope-a-dope. I believe that Russia and China know that the the U.S. will not permit Iran to create nukes. This means that Iran will never present a nuclear threat to Russia because we will destroy Iran at much risk and cost (and maybe begin another long, expensive rehabilitation effort) and it will have cost the Russians basically nothing.

Aug 26, 2008 - 10:23 pm 63. buddy larsen:

from Aristide’s link:

”Estonia today called on Nato to build a military facility in his country, which has a large Russia speaking population. Officials said the Baltic states would use a Nato meeting in London next month to demand a tougher Western approach.

“It is time to again think about whether NATO should build new infrastructure, including in Estonia,” Foreign Minister Urmas Paet told the broadcaster in a separate interview yesterday. “Russia’s actions in Georgia have changed the international reality.” ”

Aug 26, 2008 - 10:25 pm 64. RAH:

Georgia does need a more robust protection since Russia has shown an inclination to grab ground and reluctant to fall back. The McFaul has decided not to go to Poti and has gone out to the Black Sea, I believe on a more defensive posture. The USCG Dallas is going to Batumi port instead of Poti.

Russia’s Moskova missile cruiser left port with 18 smaller escorts facing 9 NATO vessels. We are bringing in another 5 NATO fleets for a massive show of brinkmanship. Russia’s verbal belligerence makes me wonder if they really wanted to try us to attack in the Black Sea. They know that the NATO presence is a major push back in their sea. I believe our naval units are better than theirs, but does Medevev want to try us? I am beginning to wonder how rational the Russian are going to be. Their desire to punish us for their losses and dissolution of the USSR seems to be peaking. This is plan ego talking on their part and we should be careful if we want to antagonize Russia unless we are willing to follow through. This is not a good situation to leave to a next President.

A retreat to the enclaves is easy. I thought that Russia would take the chance to grab the enclaves and save face, since they blinked before they could take the pipelines. They could drag out negotiations for years while maintaining the enclaves.
But now we have to support Georgia with force if needed. If we keep Georgia than our ability to support Azerbaijan is greater and we have more leverage against Iran.

Bush did not want to handle a new Russian aggression, but they must be reassessing our strategic priorities and Cheney is going there. Better to stop Russia now at Georgia and get Azerbaijan to join us also. We need to finish up in Iraq as soon as possible with these new challenges. Afghanistan may be lost since Pakistani supply lines are compromised and Russia supply lines will also be lost. We will have to set up some warlords to fight the Taliban and hit them with airpower. It is a shame that the NATO forces squandered the opportunity to really damage the Taliban. But Taliban and the small remainder of AQ are not a strategic threat like Russia is and we should act accordingly.

It would have been nice if we had Iran on our side with a coup like the Shah’s son installed as ruler who could be our ally. It is a shame that we hamstrung our CIA from performing those operations in the 1970’s. It sure would be cheaper than war.

Aug 27, 2008 - 1:43 am 65. RAH:

Strategic reassessment

Russia is a rising menace and China is a future problem.

At this time we have no territorial conflicts with China except for Taiwan. Taiwan will be absorbed voluntarily into China. China also has interests in the central Asian nations and their oil resources. That will conflict with Russia interests also.

I believe that US will want to maintain the East European nations, Balkans and the Caucasus nations. Georgia is a strategic importance. Let the borders be the natural mountains of the North Caucasus. We want to get Georgia absorbed into our military umbrella fast because that allows us to have influence and protection over Azerbaijan, Russia’s natural target. It is in our natural strategic interest to secure Caspian oil for the west.

We also keep Iraq and hopefully get Iran via a coup. I think the installation of the dead Shah’s son, as a ruler would be a good idea. But that means that we have to destabilize Iran by taking out their nukes. We can’t wait until the next administration. Hopefully we can get the Israelis to do it for us.

Tactics in Afghanistan has to be changed. We no longer can support the slow and steady with a supply line that will be cut by Russia and Pakistan. Use CIA and Special Forces and set up warlords to fight the Taliban. Use UVA and air forces to destroy Taliban incursions and bases in Pakistan. NATO squandered the time we no longer can afford.
Afghanistan we have to be a diminished effort. The Taliban is not the strategic threat that Russia is.

Use Special Forces and CIA assets to smoke out remaining AQ but they are a dying organization. The jihadists will be around but their target will be Pakistan and try to control that country. Encourage India to push Kashmir.

Maliki will be a problem since he now feels cocky and is screwing the Sons of Iraq. Economic pressure needs to be applied to allow the Sunni participation to check Maliki’s consolidation of power.

Permanent bases in Iraq will be acquired to maintain control and influence over the ME.

That is just a quick assessment

Aug 27, 2008 - 2:07 am 66. cedarford:

Buddy Larsen - Good analysis of the China and Berlin Airlifts. Both were good for morale, but not sustainable, or adequate.

Even better with the 6th Army example. And the Germans only had a 100 mile round trip, so their planes were making 5-8 drops a day, and did not have to contend with any nations in the flight path granting air transit rights. It was as you said, a failure…

Aug 27, 2008 - 7:23 am 67. M. Simon:

The new logistical route:

Georgia, Azerbajan, Turkmenistan.

Georgia was not just about oil.

Aug 27, 2008 - 10:35 am 68. M. Simon:

Buddy says:
Boone Pickens says, “a fool with a plan will always beat a genius without one.”

The guy who can improvise will beat the fool and the genius.

See Wellington at Waterloo.

Aug 27, 2008 - 10:50 am 69. buddy larsen:

M, it gets into semantics, but Wellington actually set the battle up on terrain upon which he remembered playing as a child. No he didn’t lead N there, but it was in N’s line of march –so W went there, knowing N would have to target his army, and would engage him there. The hidden ridge –a more complete version of the one which threw Lee’s cannoneers off at Gettysburg and defeated Pickett’s Charge (the decisive battle within the battle, and the ‘high water mark of the CSA’) –was what W wanted to –and did –exploit. OTOH, N was on unfamiliar ground, and off-footed throughout the battle. W broke him with units hidded just behind the ridge top, which he cued at the precise decisive moment, at the reach of N’s great infantry charge. Pickett, too, made it to the ground he wanted –and he too, got there exhausted, finding enemy who had not broken, and were not out of gas from a long uphill charge.

Aug 27, 2008 - 12:23 pm 70. M. Simon:

So true Buddy. However, if you recall Wellington was improvising all day to prevent a breakthrough. Napoleon’s instrument was strong but brittle. Wellington was weaker but continually repairing breaks in his net.

I think it goes to the military point of: no plan survives contact with the enemy. We understand it better today through the application of Boyd’s OODA loop.

Aug 27, 2008 - 3:12 pm 71. buddy larsen:

Yep –hard to define the frame when talking about ‘plan vs improvise’. i guess one could say, W planned an improvisation, and N improvised a plan.

Aug 27, 2008 - 3:25 pm

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