Ever since Bob Woodward hinted at the existence of a ‘Manhattan project’ type secret weapon which was largely responsible for an increase in US military effectiveness in Iraq, the press has been casting around eagerly for clues as to its nature. Woodward said, “If you were an al Qaeda leader or part of the insurgency in Iraq, or one of these renegade militias, and you knew about what they were able to do, you’d get your ass outta town.” The LA Times is focusing attention on a kind of surveillance device that allows UAVs to identify and track suspects from a distance, in a manner not unlike a giant supermarket barcode scanner looking down from the sky at objects parading miles beneath.
American officials requested that details of the new technology not be disclosed out of concern that doing so might enable militants to evade U.S. detection. But officials said the previously unacknowledged devices have become a powerful part of the American arsenal, allowing the tracking of human targets even when they are inside buildings or otherwise hidden from Predator surveillance cameras.
Equally important, officials said, the systems have significantly speeded up decisions on when to strike. The technology gives remote pilots a means beyond images from the Predator’s lens of confirming a target’s identity and precise location.
Leaving aside the question of whether this remote scanning capability is the ’secret weapon’ referred to by Bob Woodward, two conjectures about it can be safely made. One is that the secret weapon — whatever it is — relies on a database which stores at least two fields, one containing a physical identifier against which the person can be identified and the second containing an his wanted status. For example, a hypothetical record for “Osama bin Laden” may contain a value for his physical identifier (more on this later) and another field will contain the entry “Wanted, Dead or Alive”. Thus, if Osama bin Laden comes within range of the ’secret weapon’, a database lookup will show him to be within the field of view.
The second conjecture is that there exists some means of collecting information that goes into the database. Since the properties of the matching system of the ’secret weapon’ are unknown, it is impossible (and undesirable) to identify which data collection effort underpins it. But we do know that a lot of information is being collected in Iraq. Indeed, collecting information can now rightly be called a major operation of war. The Strategy Page writes:
For the last three years, U.S. troops have been fingerprinting every suspicious character they have come across. The guy they turned lose three years ago for lack of evidence, may be on a wanted list today because his prints were found all over some warm weapons or bomb making materials. Prints can even be lifted off some fragments of exploded bombs.
The army and marines have been doing the same thing police forces and corporations have been doing for over a decade; taking data from many different sources and quickly sorting out what all the pieces mean. It’s called fusion and data mining, and it’s a weapon that is having a dramatic impact on what many thought was an unwinnable war.
Beyond these two known points — that the ’secret weapon’ operates on a database and that the database information is collected somehow — we know nothing in the public domain. The suggestion that some device mounted on a UAV can “see” suspects through walls suggests something about the physical signals that particular device works on, whether or not it is the ’secret weapon’ Bob Woodward describes. But keeping to the knowns, or at least to the highly probables, what else can we say about the database? One: that it is a very dangerous and highly valuable piece of information. Second, that the “wanted status” field is by far the most important column in the system.
Harper’s Magazine published a little noticed article in August 2007 describing the concerns of Marc Rotenberg, Executive Director of the Electronic Privacy Information Center (EPIC) about the security of identification databases supporting warfighting. Specifically, Rotenberg was worried that database information could be used by Iraqi sectarians to rub out ethnic rivals or political opponents; that this marvelous datastore could become, in the wrong hands, a computerized death warrant for thousands instead of a tool for fighting bombers and killers. The key design issue in any such warfighting database is who gets to fill in the “wanted status” field; who gets to write “innocent” or “Wanted, Dead or Alive” in that vital column. At the moment there is presumably a classified process of review controlling how that field is populated. But if the database fell into the wrong hands …
The routine and depressing report of database thefts provide little assurance that any such database would be safe forever. But even its loss would be mitigated by two things. Unless the thief also had updates available from the data collection system it would soon fall out of sync and the thieves would still not have the physical ’secret weapon’ which the database supports. It is one thing to have that database and another to possess all the physical components needed to collect, process and act on the information. Truly effective ’secret weapons’ are defended not simply by confidentiality but by complexity and the engineering challenges required to overcome them. The Atomic Bomb has remained largely out of reach to terrorists for so many decades not because its design is ’secret’ but because it is relatively difficult to physically manufacture. Weapons based on “fusion” and “synergy” effects, marrying databases to advanced weapons and sensor platforms require that any copycat replicate not just one aspect of the system, but all of it. Those difficulties mean that for the present, the US will enjoy a temporary monopoly in the use of whatever this thingamajig is. But all monopolies are temporary and that’s a sobering thought.
Tip Jar.
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119 Comments
1. Peter Grynch:My prediction: In the future, all mug shots will have a front, side, and top view…
Sep 12, 2008 - 3:28 pm 2. NahnCee:Can DNA be analyzed from afar? Like, is there any way of breaking down the DNA helix/molecules with infrared imaging or something like that so that a satellite in the sky could x-ray from above and match it up to previously collected hairs from a bad guy’s bushy beard?
We know the military has been collecting retina imaging as well as fingerprints in Iraq, but it seems to me that some of the people we *really* want to talk to up close and personal we probably don’t have retina images and may not have fingerprints either. They will, however, likely have left behind DNA in their various safe houses.
And, the thought does occur to wonder if these satellites (or whatever is doing the seeing) can peer through walls, does that also mean they can track law-abiding Americans like Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi as they go about their duties of lunching and collecting and passing along pork monies?
I wonder what Putin is getting done these days …
Sep 12, 2008 - 4:11 pm 3. slade:Oh heck. It’s more than that. Positional awareness in the digital theater is already a reality. Witness the automobile security systems and the elderly alarm systems that access medical help directly in emergencies. The difference is that the distributed end signals the central locus whereas a database presents a centralized node from which action radiates out. The difference is directional. May be that’s a distinction. Maybe not.
Sep 12, 2008 - 4:25 pm 4. Lifeofthemind:It would not surprise me if the Islamists start marking their doorposts with sheep blood. There is a deep insecurity in their faith and how they react to the outside world. They are easily lead into a belief in dark conspiracies, betrayals and outside even magic powers manipulating them. American ingenuity and enterprise will design a multitude of magic devices. Some like the Internet and Youtube can be adopted by the terrorists to their purposes. Some of the amazing powers we wield will only exist in the minds of our Psyops officers and the enemy. With any luck they will work themselves into a state where they are shooting their toilets before relieving themselves.
Sep 12, 2008 - 4:30 pm 5. slade:The imaging technology to see through structural barriers (walls and such) – been around for awhile (nuclear magnetic resonance technology).
Sep 12, 2008 - 4:33 pm 6. Marine 83:I think the only super weapon is the U.S. GI. Once we replaced the political Generals in charge over there with a fighting man, things turned around.
Sep 12, 2008 - 4:56 pm 7. John Moore:I would not be surprised if reports of this remote reading system is disinformation. In fact, I’d be surprised if it wasn’t. The PsyOps folks probably know that superstition and paranoia are a big part of that culture.
Furthermore, such disinformation helps to obscure the real technology – advanced database analysis software that enables analysts to, for example, predict where in a building the terrorist is going (such as the apartment of a confederate).
Sep 12, 2008 - 5:05 pm 8. Bill R:“nuclear magnetic resonance technology”.
There are other remote sensing technologies that could be applied to the problem of “seeing” through walls from a distance.
Sep 12, 2008 - 5:11 pm 9. elijah:The “collaborative warfare” that allowed the military and intelligence agencies to “locate, target and kill key individuals in groups such as al-Qaeda in Iraq, the Sunni insurgency and renegade Shia militias,” isn’t a secret and it certainly isn’t new.
Sep 12, 2008 - 5:28 pm 10. Bob Hawkins:I think people take Bob “The Angel of Death” Woodward too seriously. (For his groundbreaking deathbed interviews of people who aren’t around to contradict him by the time the book is published.)
Sep 12, 2008 - 6:01 pm 11. Zim:Maybe it’s a variant of the exploding cigar, maybe exploding camel?
Sep 12, 2008 - 6:05 pm 12. enscout:and there’s this…
http://www.cardenchronicles.com/2008/09/uav-missile-strike-in-pakistan.html
mohammed’s big brother.
Sep 12, 2008 - 6:12 pm 13. Lifeofthemind:We should be careful not to get to exultant about the paranoia, venality and disorganization of the enemy. First, we should not do so because it is both unattractive and morally flawed. More importantly because those conditions like the tools of our technology and organizational skills do not guarantee victory. Someone once said that North Vietnam was so corrupt that at one time we almost had a majority of their Central Committee on the US payroll. Regrettably the red flag with the yellow star is flying over Saigon today. We need to keep working on building up a something to defeat the cult of nothing that Islamism is. That is an educational process and it will take generations.
Bush’s dream is that in the conflict between cultures focused world like the West, call it Vitalism, and a death focused Nihilism like Khomeneism or Salafism the light will infect the dark and transform it. That is a beautiful goal but as with the fermentation of wine by bacteria care must be taken to protect and shelter the fragile experiment or it will spoil. Results, imperfect but workable obtained in Germany and Japan more rapidly but still they were under effective occupation for two generations. That was with more to work with in the native soil. In the case of Iraq we can get the enemy to betray their own but that does not give us the victory that can only come with time.
To my mind one of our first major mistakes was when we did not insist that the new Iraq would have to have a clearly secular constitution that respected all minorities and allowed free exercise of missionary activity. By granting the Islamists a constitutional cover at the beginning we stacked the deck. This did not gain the loyalty of the Sunnis who saw the new arrangement as a Shia empowerment that was more threatening to them than Saddam’s ostensible secularist socialism. It also was a betrayal of the Christians whose ethics are essential for the regeneration of Iraqi society. It also served to formalize an anti-Semitism on the part of the government we installed that had only existed as an expediency and not as a constitutional imperative before. Ideally we should have encouraged a cosmopolitan transformation in Baghdad where Iraqis would learn to tolerate the presence of not just Sunni and Shia but Christians, Buddhists, Zoroastrians and even Jews.
Sep 12, 2008 - 6:15 pm 14. oMan:My guess on a physical characteristic of the suspect, observable at a distance as by UAV, would be gait. More, perhaps, than just the stride and swing of frame. The whole package of gesture and moving-through-frame of the body. A myope can tell somebody a long way off by that. Why couldn’t a loitering Predator?
Sep 12, 2008 - 6:23 pm 15. slade:There are other remote sensing technologies that could be applied to the problem of “seeing” through walls from a distance.
Yes. There are. They are not secret.
Or should I expect a knock on my door?
Sep 12, 2008 - 6:32 pm 16. Staring In Disbelief:I think we fall for the “conceit of our choice” when we credit only gadgetry or only the guts and brains of the US Soldier. It is most likely a seamless and inseparable blend of both, which is the true American Way of War. Technical ingenuity and animal cunning; material strength and moral fiber; patient, focused innovation and determined will to win.
The whole is greater than the sum of its parts.
Sep 12, 2008 - 6:36 pm 17. cjm:distinct brain wave patterns
Sep 12, 2008 - 7:07 pm 18. programmer:cjm,
Sep 12, 2008 - 7:14 pm 19. Lifeofthemind:I think skin contact is needed or at least close proximity of the sensors, no?
@slade
Sep 12, 2008 - 7:23 pm 20. slade:Candygram for Mongo.
All I know is that the world has become Strange. Seven years after the 9/11 attack, which was supposed to cripple the USA economy, we have meltdown in the financial services industry, coupled with weakness in automotive industry which completely failed to anticipate or time the energy transition away from internal combustion, coupled with the huffing and puffing of tinpot blowhards around the globe, coupled with one of the most unusual presidential campaigns in modern history, coupled with what might register in history as the single most incompetent Congress to (dis)grace this country.
Regarding distinctive brain wave patterns I recently deplaned at a major airport and began the long trek to baggage claim from an outer terminal. Tired from an early morning wake-up and heavy bags, I stopped next to a railing to rearrange bags and catch my breath. Some teenage TSA agent jumped out of his chair and told me to “Keep Walking.”
Wretchard’s larger point about privacy is correct. Much of what we have come to value in this country will be sacrificed as the “War against Terror” is pursued.
Just sayin’.
Sep 12, 2008 - 7:34 pm 21. cjm:the brain emits electomagnetic energy in distinct patterns. guess it comes down to how sensitive the receivers are. guessing super cooling is involved, if i am right.
Sep 12, 2008 - 7:42 pm 22. cjm:there is only one party that will take away our civil rights. and they aren’t interested in fighting the WOT. all f the dems enemies are inside America.
Sep 12, 2008 - 7:46 pm 23. Mark Razak:I believe that the secret weapon is called O.B.I.T., Outer Band Individuated Teletracer. Search all sources for anyone named “Mr. Lomax.” You can not hide from this machine and ” … they will demoralize you, break your spirits, create such rifts and tensions in your society that no one will be able to repair them!”
Sep 12, 2008 - 7:49 pm 24. slade:One of the obstacles in advancing the ecosystem sciences is lack of sensor technology to acquire the physical database to support the empirical models. I used to follow the Information Management journals and that was one hardware issue that was raised – creating a “wired” physical grid – ultimately in real time, which requires more sophisticated digital capacity – both hardware and software to collect, process, and store the grid data. From what I understand of these alleged military apps, the technology can/will be downloaded into the private sector, not unlike DARPA became the Internet and GPS (Global Positioning System for satellite survey) came incrementally from military applications.
Sep 12, 2008 - 7:55 pm 25. Lifeofthemind:@slade,
They are right to keep the exit lane clear. They are not right to be rude. If they do not say “please Sir” and “thank you” then get their name and number off their name tag, check how many stripes they have and send your complaint to the Contact Center at TSA.gov. This is the important part, remain polite but do not allow the Lead or Supervisor to “take care of it.” They should have a Complaint form but you do not have to give it back to them. Write down the time and the identities of everyone and then report just the simple facts. The job needs to be done but the discourteous behavior needs to be reported.
BTW, people are often at the exit because they reported an injury or are otherwise not allowed to work on the lanes. Sometimes that is because they have a discipline problem already, sometimes it is because of an injury and hundreds or thousands of women take the job knowing they are pregnant. They cannot be asked about pregnancy in the hiring process even though the job description demands lifting and moving heavy bags. Those last employees get up to $15 an hour to sit at the exit and do nothing until they quit the job. If they were not in a TSA uniform then they are just contract workers hired by the airport and not by TSA.
Sep 12, 2008 - 8:10 pm 26. slade:there is only one party that will take away our civil rights. and they aren’t interested in fighting the WOT.
My position is that terrorism – in one form or another – is a long-term player in the so-called post-modern world. I’ll let others fill in the picture as they see fit, but just look at Chavez and his alliance Russia, look at the alliance between the South American narco-traffic and the jihadists (As noted by Wretchard). Terrorism will very soon morph into a generic threat that is independent of causation – ideology, religion, victimization, pick-your-grievance. The price will be determined this century.
Sep 12, 2008 - 8:14 pm 27. slade:Thanks for that input LOTM.
I snapped at the little sh^t but I doubt it did much good.
Sep 12, 2008 - 8:18 pm 28. sfblue:Once an individual is located and identified at any time, a system that could track his location from satellite thermal imaging systems or similar imaging systems mounted on a continuously present overhead array of drones from the identification point onward could provide real-time tracking and location information on any such identified individual. Once identified, the database would associate all known info on an individual with the thermal trace in real time. Of course, a trace that becomes discontinuous for any significant amount of time or distance would have to be re-evaluated on a case-by-case basis.
Sep 12, 2008 - 8:21 pm 29. sfblue:Hence, air supremacy becomes the ultimate advantage.
Sep 12, 2008 - 8:25 pm 30. Freddo:I doubt the full accuracy of the existence of such magical sensors. However, there are many abilities that are public knowledge that are not widely understood outside of certain disciplines.
Astronomers have used spectroscopy to measure the chemical composition of stars and gas clouds mega-light years distant. Measuring certain physical properties from 5 to 10 miles up is certainly a “do-able” prospect with the lasers and optics on modern aircraft.
If I had to theorize, I’d say the trick is planting a chemical tracer on known associates, and mapping the resulting spread across the landscape.
Short half-life chemicals can give an indication of recentness. Some chemicals, introduced into a human body will result in a predicable excretion. Look for concentrated localizations and investigate further.
One can imagine combining these techniques to develop a method to track down AQ terrorists.
Sep 12, 2008 - 8:25 pm 31. Stephen:The answer is embedded within the comments:
“If you were a member of al Qaeda or the resistance or some extremist militia, you would be wise to get your rear end out of town,” Woodward said.
The top secret operations, he said, will “some day in history … be described to people’s amazement.”
When in custody, something is done, either via food, or medical procedure, that allows the US to then track the former prisoners. They are released, and, then, we attack their position.
Sep 12, 2008 - 8:30 pm 32. sfblue:Any given individual drone need not have a continuous bead as long as any drone, satellite, etc. has info as the system can provide and access data from any node to any other node virtually instantaneously. The data is fed to any digital map overlay that requests it.
Sep 12, 2008 - 8:33 pm 33. sfblue:It’s a swarm strategy. Once enough drones are covering a given area, at least one is likely to be able to track an individual with remote imaging technology. Perhaps a critical mass of drones has been deployed.
Sep 12, 2008 - 8:35 pm 34. Mad Fiddler:All was revealed in two movies, if only the Islamic terrorists were paying attention: First, in “Star Wars” as long ago as 1977, we saw that a method for projecting 3D holographic video had been perfected, so that an overhead drone can project the images of known terrorists into buildings, tunnels, landscapes, etc. for comparison with unidentified figures observed below.
Next, in the feature “Enemy of the State” we were shown that technology has been perfected which allows observers to follow a person running through buildings constructed of the densest imaginable materials – high-tensile steel, concrete, wood, copper, aluminum, etc. While tracking the subject through the hallways and basements, this technology clearly reveals the designer labels on the subject’s underwear, the batteries in the Rolex on the subject’s wrist, plus every staple in every memo filed in the closed desks, every sheet on every roll of toilet paper in the bathrooms, the screws in the bookshelves, and, oh yeah, all the digital information revealing every bank account, results of STD tests, voting booth selections, and whether the subject uses Viagara.
This is because America has invested for decades in technology that is beyond the reckoning of a people who regard the rote memorization of the Qur’an as the highest possible accomplishment.
They may as well give up now. The alternative is that a minor orderly in a sub-basement in a U.S. military installation will click on the “execute” button on a secret program which will make all terrorists and their trainees go to the store, purchase a pound of bacon, and eat it raw.
Sep 12, 2008 - 8:40 pm 35. sfblue:It is doubtful that some tracking device is physically planted on individuals, chemical or otherwise. Once the plant is identified, all tracked individuals could immediately neutralize the entire system. That would require physical contact on an individual by individual basis which simply is not practical.
Sep 12, 2008 - 8:40 pm 36. Roy Lofquist:Dear Sirs,
This is an interesting subject. So interesting that I went out to the trash bin and retrieved the disposable razor I has discarded this morning. I washed it off, performed the prescribed ceremony proclaiming it Occam’s razor, and used it shave a slice of cheddar. The last didn’t work very well – happens with a lot of my bright ideas.
There is a ubiquitous, well known and well understood technology used for remote sensing – RFID.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RFID
Commercial RFID is just that, commercial. You don’t employ the best technology but only that that meets the requirements at the optimal cost. For only $10 more (plus shipping and handling) you can get better performance.
The question is how do you get it on the guy. The people you are after don’t issue press releases. You find them by penetrating their organizations. You find the neighborhood bad guy and drop a chip in his sweet tea and track where he goes. One step up. Penetrate that organization – there are always some who are in it for the money – you can buy them pretty cheap. More tea. Up the ladder. There are other ways that I wont get into.
Wretchard mentioned the database. RFID’s give you an essentially unlimited unique ID’s. For those of you who know only of relational databases they are other data structures that are for more efficient and much more versatile.
I don’t have any information which would lead me to think that this is what they’re doing. Just sitting around sipping my gin and surfing the web.
Regards,
Sep 12, 2008 - 8:50 pm 37. Herb:Roy
Two databases. One with the identifier (whatever that may be) and one with the guilt (for want of a better term)
Sep 12, 2008 - 8:54 pm 38. sfblue:A+B= BOOM
The transponder plant method of tracking has been around since radios were invented. RFID is the same method but smaller and cheaper. This new system does NOT employ a tag and track method.
Sep 12, 2008 - 9:00 pm 39. Triton'sPolarTiger:Stephen:
One must wonder, then, if McCain’s supposed desire to curtail Guantanamo might actually be part of a grand plan… the supposed anti-Bush as far as that particular policy goes, actually working in tandem with Bush to release a swarm of trackable jihadists that will eventually allow intelligence to map their entire network of safehouses, meeting places… and especially in what countries they begin to occasion…
Sep 12, 2008 - 9:21 pm 40. jj mollo:We have confidence that the forces sustaining liberty will maintain a technological edge over the opposition, but I’m not sure that confidence is justified. For one thing, lack of conscience can be a force multiplier, and for another, our pursuit of technical supremacy is subject to the whims of tax base. We are subject at times to losing either interest or resolve.
Sep 12, 2008 - 9:25 pm 41. NahnCee:Given Woodward’s progressive left leaning tendencies and history, would he allow himself to be played for psyops purposes? In other words, would he be more likely to defend his country in the war on terror by lying on camera and telling the terrorists there is a new sooper-dooper weapon and they’d best get out of Dodge immediately?
Or would a “journalist” with Woodward’s track record be more likely to sell America and the military down the river by spilling the beans and divulging a highly classified secret to the terrorists that there *is* a new sooper-dooper weapon and they need to beware, beware?
In either case, I strongly approve of messing with their minds, and despite Lifeofthemind’s gloom, I intend to gloat about it. Gloat gloat gloat, and scurry, you little turbaned cockroaches — there’s literally no place left for you to hide in Tora Bora.
Next question is this: would the development of a new sooper-dooper weapon be more likely to aim at swarms of newly-released jihadists and where they are going (back to Saudi Arabia, like we didn’t already know it)? Or would it be developed solely for the purpose of tracking down and pinpointing the location of one bearded lunatic that the President of the United States would dearly love to parade along Pennsylvania Avenue as part of the Inauguration festivities?
I’m sort of thinking that whatever they’ve developed isn’t necessarily aimed at killing a bunch of bottom-feeding al-Queda pond scum, but that it’s been developed just for the purpose of nabbing bin Laden when the time is right.
Sep 12, 2008 - 9:43 pm 42. outa my league:“Prints can even be lifted off some fragments of exploded bombs”…(!!!)
…but Mac Wallace’s latent partial print, found in the Depository Sniper’s Nest (34-pts. match) can’t be verified.
Check out Barr McClellan’s book on the hit.
Sep 12, 2008 - 9:49 pm 43. outa my league:Maybe the Secret Weapon is Chuck Yeager. Legend is that he could spot bandits farther out than anyone, some 40 miles.
Sep 12, 2008 - 9:55 pm 44. Roy Lofquist:Dear Lifeofthemind and Nahncee,
I apologize for going ballistic on you. It was unseemly and I am ashamed.
Love to both of you.
Roy
Sep 12, 2008 - 10:00 pm 45. bobal:Obama Campaign Mocks McCain’s Disability
Sep 12, 2008 - 10:10 pm 46. Charles:I’m getting slower to post water desalination issues. But I just finished a post yesterday called faxing pipelines.3d faxing is
Sep 12, 2008 - 10:22 pm 47. Charles:” a scale-up of the rapid prototyping machines now widely used in industry to “print out” three-dimensional objects designed with CAD/CAM software, usually by building up successive layers of plastic.” The goal is to build a large house in three days –rather than three months or so. If the technology can be used for houses it surely can be used to rapidly make pipes on the cheap to move water for 1000’s of miles…inland.
Its likely that Pakistani protestations not withstanding — that part of the data base info that’s leading to the targeting of aq in waziristan–is coming from the ISI. since the new pm there is the husband of the slain bhutto. there is no way he would not want revenge on the murderers of his wife.
and too the ISI would likely give data on whom they wanted to give info. But they would be giving data. Some of it would match up with US data. Only the US would be the ones to enter the datafield for wanted status.
I’m not sure if this is not an updated version of a wanted dead or alive poster. The difference here being that the address of the wanted person is listed and the lawman is on his way.
Yeah, US technology does have a way of slipping away. For example 3d faxing will likely become ubiquitous world wide within 20 years after its invented in the USA. imho 20 years from now water pipelines will be snaking inland from desert coasts all over the world.
But this data mining/merge/aim/fire stuff is almost cultural. Its much tougher to replicate.
The greater danger at least for the next decades is that US foreign policy will be become a slave to interests far away from any conceivable american interests. for example the talk is getting louder of letting georgia and the ukraine into NATO. That does mean if Russia invades those countries –the USA is obliged to go to war to aide the Ukrainians. Or if the Russians get cute and join Nato subsequently–the USA is obliged to go to war if the Chinese invade siberia.
then you have the one world government types and the sodomites who have a way of laying low on just the right side until the moment is ripe.
Sep 12, 2008 - 10:50 pm 48. Nomenklatura:It may be that what is going into the database is a lot of information on family relationships and DNA.
Your network of family relationships is like a permanent address, and while I may not be able to find you when I want to, it may not be long at all before I’m going to snag someone you are related to, and then start following the strands of your personal web back to you. This fits together well with today’s capabilities like cellphone monitoring and overhead surveillance.
Literally the only way to evade a system like that would be to start running now, away from everything and everyone you have ever known.
Sep 12, 2008 - 10:55 pm 49. Charles:Washington Post
Saturday, September 13, 2008; Page A10
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/12/AR2008091200124.html?hpid=topnews
A Pakistani intelligence official who spoke on the condition of anonymity said the strikes have genuinely angered some Pakistani military officials and have raised suspicions among rank-and-file soldiers that public protests by the government are empty rhetoric.
While there is general agreement within the military that the United States should be allowed to strike legitimate targets in Pakistan’s tribal areas, there is little agreement on what constitutes a “legitimate target,” the intelligence official said.
The intelligence official said many in Pakistan’s clandestine ISI believe that Haqqani, who received support from the Pakistani agency and the CIA during the Soviet war in Afghanistan in the 1980s, had provided intelligence officials with valuable information about other Taliban networks that had been attacking Pakistani security targets.
Sep 12, 2008 - 11:06 pm 50. Roy Lofquist:…………………
You always have to remember that when you’re talking about pakistan — the compass no longer registers true north.
Dear Sirs,
I happen to have spent a bit of time in Peshawar in the early 60’s. Obviously I was not anywhere near the thinking of the people who formulated policy but in the nature of my work you pick up on some attitudes. My sense was that their gut feeling was that these were a bunch of crazy bastards and they has to take it day by day and hope for the best.
Regards,
Sep 13, 2008 - 12:03 am 51. James:Roy
There was a story last week claiming people could be identified from above by analysing the movement of their shadows to identify their gait. If you can see someone’s shadow through a window when they’re “inside buildings or otherwise hidden from Predator surveillance cameras.” then you could identify them.
Sep 13, 2008 - 3:10 am 52. Ernie G:Watching the 60 Minutes interview, I formed the opinion that I was witnessing a crime being committed. My training in the handling of classified information dates to my Army days, over 40 years ago, but I recall that if one reveals anything from a SECRET or TOP SECRET document it’s good for ten years. To say “We have a secret weapon; its capabilities are thus and so, but I can’t give details because they’re secret,” involves the spilling of some very secret beans. The omission of specific details does not make the harm go away. It will be recalled that the biggest secret of the Manhattan Project was not this calculation or that drawing, but the very fact of its existence.
Sep 13, 2008 - 4:53 am 53. Wadeusaf:Smell o Vision
Sep 13, 2008 - 5:44 am 54. Wadeusaf:erm
smell o’ Data
Sep 13, 2008 - 5:48 am 55. JFSanders:I am not sure how to do it without violence. But there needs to be a turnover in the bureaucracy and a reduction in the number of people in the State Dept.
There is no justifiable reason that B.Woodward should have access to anything remotely classified. Or to anyone with enough clearance to have knowledge of said classified material.
Jim
Sep 13, 2008 - 5:59 am 56. Charles:NY Times
Sep 13, 2008 - 6:26 am 57. programmer:Figure in Rosenberg Case Admits to Soviet Spying
September 11, 2008
Ernie G.,
My gut instincts agree with yours. In a galaxy far, far away, there once was a 2LT who, cleaning out his desk, found a whole stack of Top Secret cover sheets (you probably remember those), and since he had no use for them at the time, tossed them into the garbage can. The resulting snit storm still causes reflexive aligning of his thumbs along the seams of his trousers and rigid straightening of his backbone and the pressing of his chin into his neck.
Sep 13, 2008 - 7:19 am 58. RWE:There are special difficulties involved in utilizing and disseminating data from methods and sources that Are Not Supposed to Exist. For much of its existence the National Reconnaissance Office officially Did Not Exist. Special systems had to be developed to enable information gathered by the NRO’s systems to be dispensed to the field.
Even then, there were basic problems with such Nonexistent Resources. It was difficult, at best, for people who needed the data to have any input on what was collected. Thus, they inevitably were unimpressed with the results. It was not designed to meet their needs, and they got results commensurate with their noninvolvement.
Admitting the existence of the NRO solved the basic problem of “where did this data come from?” but added some new ones. For example, I once had to answer a FOIA request on whether the NRO had asked NASA astronauts to hang out the back of a Shuttle and take pictures of Chelybinsk with a hand held camera. Now why anyone would even care is a really good question, but since the NRO Did Not Exist at that time, I had to answer the FOIA, which I did by referring to back issues of Aviation Week and responding “We have no information on that.” Now, the NRO itself has to put up with that kind of nonsense.
Sep 13, 2008 - 7:36 am 59. kaba:Just a WAG:
Sep 13, 2008 - 7:55 am 60. trangbang68:Good guys find enemy arms cache.
They remove arms and plant sensor/tracking devices on same.
Good guys return modified arms to original location.
Bad guys retrieve arms for pending operation.
Good guys track arms as they move and have a good idea of where they are.
Charles, Interestingly the AP story about the Rosenbergs in my local fish wrap, “The Arizona Daily Red Star” was totally about Ethel’s alleged innocence. There was no mention at all of Sobel confirming Julius’s guilt.
Sep 13, 2008 - 7:57 am 61. M. Simon:It’s just another example of the left refusing to turn from their sacred icons no matter how much it is shown that they are false gods.
I keep an eye on Naval research. There is a lot of effort going into “data fusion”. Combining data from multiple sources and different sensor types. Also a big effort is going into coming up with good ways to display the fused data.
Sep 13, 2008 - 8:04 am 62. Wadeusaf:Intentional Leaks v. Unintended Leaks V. Criminal Acts. Something about Libby and undue process too.
Sep 13, 2008 - 8:10 am 63. Charles:Along with the increased ability to find out stuff the military is also working on camouflage: interesting economist article:
Technology Quarterly
Sep 13, 2008 - 8:49 am 64. slade:Camouflage
How to disappear
Sep 4th 2008
From The Economist print edition
Military technology: Advances in camouflage, concealment and deception are revolutionising an age-old art of warfare
http://www.economist.com/science/tq/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11999355
coming up with good ways to display the fused data
Another slant on visualization
Sep 13, 2008 - 8:53 am 65. NahnCee:here.
“There is no justifiable reason that B.Woodward should have access to anything remotely classified. Or to anyone with enough clearance to have knowledge of said classified material.”
Unless there is no new weapon, Woodward was being played and set up, and we’re just messing with their minds that now they can’t even hide in their favorite cave without being overheard and seen. “Booga booga!!! We *see* you!”
Frankly, given the rage and outrage after 9/11 I would be very surprised if after seven years, America had not been able to come up with something new and astounding along the lines of a nuclear bomb. It’s what we do when we’re pissed off and there’s unlimited manpower and financing available (… although we still haven’t figured out a way to do without oil).
Sep 13, 2008 - 8:53 am 66. Charles:From the economist article posted above.
“Engineers at Lockheed Martin, a large American defence contractor, have designed a radar system called FOPEN, short for foliage penetration. It became operational in 2005, but still requires further development and is deployed on just one active American warplane so far. But Lockheed Martin’s FOPEN programme manager, Robert Robertson, says the radar “will see whatever man made” under a leafy triple canopy, or under netting designed to foil conventional radar systems”
Sep 13, 2008 - 8:59 am 67. Charles:From economist article posted above. This paragraph refers to software that generates patterns that best conceal soldiers but it could also be used to discover soldiers.
“Pattern-generation software analyses a large number of photographs of a given theatre of operations. By crunching meteorological data on typical lighting and visibility conditions, combined with information about the colours and predominance of shapes visible in cities, fields and wilderness areas, the software proposes new, improved patterns.”
Sep 13, 2008 - 9:02 am 68. programmer:As a practical matter, American soldiers are extraordinarily clever in fashioning devices from Radio Shack parts, etc. While in Viet Nam, I was constantly amazed at the useful tech gadgets devised by soldiers under my command from parts, either ordered from a catalog, or sent from home by wives and parents. Some of these gadgets were adopted by “official” military organizations and after appropriate vetting were available through ordnance channels. Meanwhile, we continued to use the locally constructed gadgets until we could get them through the regular channels. Without going into detail, some of these gadgets were absolutely mind boggling and all invented by soldiers with high school education, and, of course, military training, with a vested interest in improving our chances for survival and winning.
Sep 13, 2008 - 9:20 am 69. Charles:The upshot of this is that we are entering an age that is as technologically different from before as WWI is from the Napoleonic Wars. The military is only the combat expression of a very different technological society.
The tools developed today will be part of the tool kit for the great space age to come. Space ships will need to be able to precisely locate mineral deposits without a lot of exploratory mining. Then they’ll need to be able to fabricate parts on the fly as needed.
Starting in the 1960’s the philosophy was as of a world with natural resource limits. This was the philosophy behind limiting population growth.
But really what it was about was that the technology of the age had stopped providing opportunities for exponential growth (while still providing opportunities for arithmetic growth).
We are entering a period once again where vast technological improvements create new opportunities for exponential growth.
But of course the burst of power will create new elites and many opportunities for mischief.
The price of freedom is eternal vigilance.
Sep 13, 2008 - 9:50 am 70. cjm:keep in mind that “seeing through walls” doesn’t necessarily mean the visible spectrum.
Sep 13, 2008 - 10:03 am 71. james wilson:This is exactly where Britain is going. Because they have permitted, and even encouraged rot at the center of their civilization, they have much greater need of masters. Every city block is now wired to cameras. Other equipment and the means to monitor it will follow.
Sep 13, 2008 - 10:18 am 72. James Kielland:Orwell knew what was coming, but he can be forgiven in misunderstanding how it would arrive; with a wimper and not a bang.
Charles, quoting the Economist, wrote:
“Engineers at Lockheed Martin, a large American defence contractor, have designed a radar system called FOPEN, short for foliage penetration.”
When I was in Costa Rica, I spent a lot of time working with the archaeology community.
Archaeology in Costa Rica is rather challenging. Due to extensively thick forests and volcanic activity, much is covered. Even if you come across an ancient town, such as the city of Guayabo just outside present day Turrialba, any attempt at systematic excavation is thwarted due to the density of the forest. Archaeology with bulldozers really doesn’t work and then you’d be left with something like a huge clear-cut area.
However around the time I was working there NASA was doing overflights with sophisticated mapping and sensing technologies. Ostensibly the purpose of this was to determine the natural features of the land so the altitude of the land, and not the forest canopy, could be established.
They found some amazing things.
The not only could see under the foliage, they could see under the soil. They happened to discover these strange lines that didn’t correspond to any modern maps. Archaeologists were sent out to dig and were able to determine the cause of the signals: ancient roads. Centuries of foot travel on these roads had sufficiently compacted the soil so that it produced different thermal characteristics than the surrounding terrain.
Sep 13, 2008 - 10:49 am 73. cjm:and for all that security equipment in the uk, they still have a huge crime problem. all stems from socialism and a lack of will on the part of the population.
Sep 13, 2008 - 11:39 am 74. JA:I posted this on the Deadly Knowledge post. I think our new data acquisition weapon has to do with “audio surveillance, combined with impossibly fast and fine-grained sorting analysis, combined with voice-recognition and/or key-word datamining software.”
How many types of information can identify a particular human body? On the electromagnetic spectrum, we have heat, visible light and very small EM fields that surround our body. We have biometrics like DNA, retinals, dentals, fingerprints, bone-structure, and scent.
Finally, we have sound. I’m not sure if heart rhythms are identifiers or not — probably not — but we all know that vocal patterns are.
We know we have long range audio “telescopes”. We know the NSA has the ability to monitor millions of phone conversations at the same time and flag key words. We know government R&D recently became very interested in sound as a weapon.
RWE can correct me if I’m wrong, but data collected this way could be made actionable without divulging where it came from. Couldn’t we just say we got the data by monitoring cell phones? No one would be the wiser.
Sep 13, 2008 - 11:59 am 75. Storm-Rider:Kirk: Sulu, scan the surface for life forms.
Sulu: Captain, 5 life forms present in sector 7.
Kirk: Target status.
Sulu: Wanted Dead or Alive.
Kirk: Destroy enemy targets with Proton torpedoes.
Sulu: Yes sir; proton torpedoes away, sir.
Sep 13, 2008 - 12:04 pm 76. Greg Marquez:I’m kind of thinking some audio/voice identity stuff would be capable of doing all that the article hints at. Very hard thing to defend against I imagine.
Sep 13, 2008 - 12:07 pm 77. JA:_Very hard thing to defend against I imagine._
Especially in a culture that prays five times a day.
Sep 13, 2008 - 12:11 pm 78. James Kielland:JA asked:
“Couldn’t we just say we got the data by monitoring cell phones? No one would be the wiser.”
Ultimately, I think it’s important to keep the title of Wretchard’s essay in mind. This isn’t about a sensor. Nor about 2 or 3 new sensors, no matter how high-tech they may be. The real weapon is the software which integrates the sensors, which would be a database. Therefore, it’s not about a stream of data. It’s about the product of threading together multiple streams of data.
Sep 13, 2008 - 12:24 pm 79. slade:It’s about the product of threading together multiple streams of data.
Like a cross-sensory multi-dimensional behavior-driven fractal.
Sep 13, 2008 - 12:28 pm 80. JA:James: “This isn’t about a sensor.”
It’s not just about database, either. It’s about capability. The “if you speak you’re dead” capability, the product of our sensory, database, and organizational adaptations since the Iraq War started.
What I was saying is that whatever the weapon is, and however it works, it is keyed to a certain signal-type. My guess is audio.
Sep 13, 2008 - 1:42 pm 81. James Kielland:There’s a big part of me that thinks that a lot of this talk of Woodward’s is either hyperbole on his part in order to sell his book; it certainly works for me as it has made me want to read it. Or the possibility that he’s being used as somewhat of a dupe in order to convince our enemies that our capabilities are greater than they are. In this sense, it would slow down any enemy’s ooda loop, cause them to maintain radio silence (perhaps even if they don’t need to) and generally keeping undercover.
However, the fundamental fact is that we ARE moving in this direction. We are moving into an era of not just much more powerful sensors but the ability to fuse those sensors together in order to create a knowledge product that is substantially greater than the whole of its constituents. In reflecting on this, one realizes what an astonishing tool for cognition the database is: it not only greatly increases our memory, it increases our ability to synthesize new information from our memory.
Spinoza, writing in the 17th century, understood the power of reason and the power of science. Yes, we have acute powers of observation and the ability to reason about our observations. We can see cause and effect. But reality is so vast, with so many interacting factors, that it is simply beyond the ability of our brains to understand all of it. Ultimately, all learning is about pattern detection and error correction in order to learn which causes lead to which effects. And what we can learn and discover about the universe is limited to the powers of our observation, our time to observe something, and the power of our memory. So as powerful as science is, our own limits of time and perception fundamentally limit science.
Throughout history, the ability of a civilization to produce science has been deeply related to the following factors: the inclination of people to closely observe nature, sufficient economic progress in order to create free time for enough people to do this, the ability of the observers to record their observations, and the ability of others to access those observations. Thus, we see the advent of printing, and later the deep time surpluses created by the industrial revolution as both corresponding to deep increases in the pace of scientific discoveries.
Our very conception of the scientific method basically focuses observation, hypothesis, experiment. We observe events around us which are causes or effects or both. A hypothesis is the assumption that some events are causes which lead to other events which are effects. An experiment is an attempt to initiate a cause in an environment in which other causes are as removed as possible in order to confirm that it leads to the effects we’ve hypothesized. Almost every big scientific breakthrough we can think of has worked this way, and most progress in science has occurred through the development of instruments that increase our ability to perceive reality and methods of keeping records which improve our memory. Kepler’s breakthrough on planetary motion, for example, would have been impossible absent Tycho Brahe’s deep and detailed records. Kepler was a data miner.
The first impact of the computer was to rapidly improve our ability to do calculations. The database has primarily been understood as a way of organizing simple collections of information for businesses: it’s great for keeping track of customers, for example. But we are increasingly moving into a new era of discovery that is characterized by the ability of the database to organize the inputs of multiple sensors and synthesize new information which heretofore had been invisible.
The database empowered by high speed CPUs, vast data storage systems, and high resolution sensors absolutely blows away the limits of science described by Spinoza. If science is limited by what we have the time, perception, and endurance to observe, the development of sensors which can detect more and diskdrives that can remember more, pushes those constraints absolutely over the horizon. We can now observe more, remember more, and compare/contrast those observations at ever more speed. Each of these dimensions of science are growing at orders of magnitude beyond what Spinoza could imagine, and they are not merely growing exponentially… they each are multiplied by their ability to be fused together as the output of data base software.
Science is fundamentally changing right before our eyes. Our popular conception of science has been a lone worker able to discover things due to his observation and concentration being enhanced by a higher degree of isolation than his contemporaries. Now, science is so complicated and based on data sets so absolutely huge that it requires collaboration and computation in order to make sense.
A great example of this is Europe’s achievement with the Large Hadron Collider. Something that could only be built through massive collaboration. But there’s something deeper in the story of the LHC which has been missed in much of the news coverage in recent day: in order to make sense of the data returned, dedicated connections have been established, running under the Atlantic, feeding massive streams of data into the US for all of the data produced to be processed. There’s not enough surplus computer power or storage space in Europe to handle it all.
This is all rather awesome, of course. But it’s not without reason for concern. We already are at a place where the potential for surveillance is greater than anything presented in the darkest fears of science fiction.
Sep 13, 2008 - 2:12 pm 82. RWE:Programmer: You should write a book about that, or at least someone should.
So many key innovations, the Cullen Hedgerow penetration device, direct communications between infantry and tanks, use of tanks to assault enemy held cities, the AC-47 gunship, medical use of super glue, and no doubt many others were made by U.S. Military people outside of normal R&D circles.
Of course, these usually accompanied important changes in tactics, which drove the need for the individual innovations.
In my 25 years of service I found that innovation at the field level was both actively discouraged and relied on very heavily in the end. And official attempts to promote innovation were much ballyhooed but almost always came to nought.
Sep 13, 2008 - 2:44 pm 83. Tinian:It’s simple: we’ve perfected an ultra-low voltage (body level) Kirlian photographic method to fingerprint and track individuals.
I’ll doff my tinfoil hat to anyone who can prove me wrong.
Sep 13, 2008 - 2:51 pm 84. slade:Is the Large Hadron Collider capable of providing proof of String Theory?
Sep 13, 2008 - 2:55 pm 85. Sticky B:would not be surprised if reports of this remote reading system is disinformation. In fact, I’d be surprised if it wasn’t. The PsyOps folks probably know that superstition and paranoia are a big part of that culture.
Sep 13, 2008 - 3:13 pm 86. slade:Now, science is so complicated and based on data sets so absolutely huge that it requires collaboration and computation in order to make sense.
My contention for a little over a decade now, is that the Green Movement stumbled badly when moving from resource protection (of air, water, and soil) into ecosystem protection where the required science is both data-intensive and computation-intensive, not to mention interdisciplinary (which means not taught at university level, which has changed over last 20 years). And it is exactly correct to note that manipulating, storing, and general database management is huge computational effort that will not be adequately tackled until quantum and/or optical or nano-computing becomes reality.
It is also interesting to note that technical advances in data manipulation (software and hardware) to support data streams that are both dense and integrated are phenomenal – well ahead of AI which is close to dead in the water.
Sep 13, 2008 - 3:13 pm 87. Sticky B:John Moore said: I would not be surprised if reports of this remote reading system is disinformation. In fact, I’d be surprised if it wasn’t. The PsyOps folks probably know that superstition and paranoia are a big part of that culture.
Superstition and paranoia are a big part of our culture to I guess. Have you noticed how much of the left is convinced that Rove is responsible for jackin’ up their apple cart? Everything from Katrina to Obamma’s current meltdown can be attributed to the dark prince.
Sep 13, 2008 - 3:15 pm 88. programmer:RWE,
You state:
In my 25 years of service I found that innovation at the field level was both actively discouraged and relied on very heavily in the end. And official attempts to promote innovation were much ballyhooed but almost always came to nought.
My observation:
Yep! It was very frustrating at times for some of the guys I worked with. I always encouraged using the official channels for submitting improvements, etc., for a lot of reasons, not the least of which was ongoing support through normal ordnance channels after approval.
However, it is one thing to sit down with soldering iron and circuit board in hand (in a bunker, no less) to whip out a new board to replace old tube technology and another to write up the specifications required for the exhaustive forms in the “suggested improvement” submission process. I wonder if it has changed at all in the ensuing years?
IMHO one of the great strengths of the US citizen military is a strong innovative spirit on the part of the average soldier. As far as I can tell, no other army can compare. It is never smart to underestimate the enemy, but I believe that in the realm of using innovation and technology to improve battle field results, our military has no peer, even with one or both hands tied behind their backs. They will still use their teeth. Hmmm…., pardon the foam flecks. I’ll stop now.
Sep 13, 2008 - 3:19 pm 89. James Kielland:Slade wrote:
“My contention for a little over a decade now, is that the Green Movement stumbled badly when moving from resource protection (of air, water, and soil) into ecosystem protection where the required science is both data-intensive and computation-intensive, not to mention interdisciplinary.”
Absolutely. It’s also interesting to note that the Green Movement has within it a deep anti-hierarchical sort of “return to the local” orientation. If the global environmental problems such as climate change are as significant as they insist, they will require extensive collaboration in order to be realized. This, of course, can only be accomplished through the wealth produced via the development of large, interrelated economic systems.
The systems thinking that the ecological movement has been helpful, however. Gaia talk might seem a little silly. But our culture is becoming more aware of the interlocking, interdependent nature of the world. Pairing up with strains of thinking from complexity theory, chaos theory, and all the rest has broadened our thinking considerably. And for the better, I believe. The ecology movement is to be thanked for adding to this, if only in a minor way. But i find it quite amusing as it will most likely ultimately lead to entirely different conclusions about politics and the world than the Green Movement was hoping for.
Sep 13, 2008 - 3:39 pm 90. slade:James Kielland: The systems thinking that the ecological movement has been helpful
Yes. It seems that non-linear dynamic systems theory stagnated after industrial manufacturing applications.
In both a technical and a conceptual sense, ecosystem science is frequently compared with economic theory where the analytical models rely (I believe) on NLDS algorithms. Those butterfly wings are flapping now in the financial markets.
Sep 13, 2008 - 3:55 pm 91. Eggplant:McCain is now ahead in all Real Clear Politics polls except for the “no toss up” electoral college. Assuming McCain does well in the debate, it’s looking like he might win this thing.
It’s amazing how the Democrats seem to have snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. In prosecuting the Global War on Terrorism, President Bush exhausted all of his political coin to his party’s detriment. Add to that the misbehavior of the previous Republican Congress along with an MSM showing ridiculous bias. The Democrats should have crushed the Republicans in this Presidential election cycle. However the Democrat Party leadership stupidly allowed the moonbats to take control (big hint: being able to make a loud repetitive noise indicates neither wisdom or ability). Now the Democrats are going to pay the price. Another hint to the Democrats: Next time don’t try to get Bozo the Clown elected President, e.g. John Kerry or the Messiah. Opt instead for a garden variety liberal, e.g. Hillary or some harmless nonentity like Diane Feinstein.
Sep 13, 2008 - 4:04 pm 92. cjm:why would anyone ascribe rational or honset intentions to the grren party or its members? that in itself is irrational. they are after political power for the hard left, end of story.
Sep 13, 2008 - 4:14 pm 93. NahnCee:“Kirk: Destroy enemy targets with Proton torpedoes.”
Surely Kirk meant to say “Photon torpoedoes”, or perhaps “Protein torpedoes”. In any case, I’m sure Sulu knew what his captain meant and pushed the correct button to summarily demolish the terrorists in Sector 7.
Sep 13, 2008 - 4:29 pm 94. slade:Protean Torpedoes.
Good catch. I knew there was something wrong with that script but my old brain couldn’t reach far enough.
Pro Tem Torpedoes. Until you get a righteous clue.
Sep 13, 2008 - 4:48 pm 95. James Kielland:cjm wrote:
“why would anyone ascribe rational or honset intentions to the grren party or its members? that in itself is irrational. they are after political power for the hard left, end of story.”
I don’t believe that I nor Slade ascribed rational motives. If anything, we made a point about unintended consequences. Even a broken clock is right twice a day. Even habitual liars sometimes say true things, and observing them can reveal some truths.
There are always lessons to be learned from your opponents. Frequently they can become a source of useful arguments or enlightening chains of thought, if they lead you to different conclusions.
Sep 13, 2008 - 5:02 pm 96. slade:Rachel Carson (Silent Spring, 1962) was a true believer. Two co-workers visited China last year. The difference between belief and reality.
Sep 13, 2008 - 5:11 pm 97. RWE:Eggplant: “However the Democrat Party leadership stupidly allowed the moonbats to take control…”
They had no choice. When they got hold of the mike they realized that they neither knew the words nor the tune. They had nothing but Clintonian non-philosophy for guidance, with a bit of Marxism and “I’d like to buy the world a Coke” foreign policy. A bit thin to say the least – and even they did not know what it meant, anyway. Ultimately modern Leftism became so PC that it could not even admit that PC was a good thing.
Programmer: I have given some thought on how the traditional military principles of shock, surprise, concentration of forces, etc. might apply to the military use of space. But it has dawned on me that is merely part of a larger problem of how it all applies to technological advancement. You have not known true frustration until you have had some logistics types explain to you that space boosters that are only launched from two places in the CONUS have to be supported so that anyone at any USAF base worldwide can order spare parts for them. “Because that is the way we do it!” And because that is the only way we know how to do it.
But now I think that “tactical/technological innovation” should be a basic principle right up there with the rest of the older ones. Although how you would explain that to people who think that the real mission is getting your Forms 601B in NLT 0900 on Monday with no errors, I have no idea.
Sep 13, 2008 - 6:21 pm 98. Roy Lofquist:Dear Security Types,
I too had some experience with it. The documents I worked with had the standard yellow Top Secret covers. The next page said:
Warning!
Code word material contained herein.
If you are not authorized do not turn this page!
You are subject to criminal and civil penalties under U.S.C. xxxxxx
A little bit of paradox here. You didn’t know which codeword it was until you turned the page. The fact is I never met anybody who was cleared for more than one. Then again, I didn’t socialize with flag ranks.
I have seen documents that are seemingly innocuous have this classification. Just the knowledge of the sender and recipient could provide a link to confirm or deny an adversary’s assumption.
Except in certain circumstances – none come to mind – we know what the enemy is up to. He knows what we’re up to. The game is to make him uncertain of his assumptions – make his war planning tougher.
There are two examples of this – very public and very subtle – that illustrate this.
Ronald Reagan knew that the mic was hot when he made that joke about “The bombing starts in ten minutes”. The Soviets didn’t know if it was a joke or not. Had they taken the proper measure of him or was he just a little too crazy for them to know.
When McCain sang “Bomb, Bomb Iran” it was laughed off. The message to the Iranians was they would be far better off if they settled this with Bush. The next guy might be just crazy enough to spoil their whole day.
Regards,
Sep 13, 2008 - 6:50 pm 99. Lifeofthemind:Roy
Remember how John Poindexter’s work at DARPA was rediculed? He pioneered Total Information Awareness and the Policy Analysis Market. The agents of snark delayed but did not prevent America harnessing our technical strengths to serve in th eArsenal of Democracy. Posted on the new thread my thought of how McCain should respond to Obama’s idiot hit piece on him regarding technological sophistication.
Sep 13, 2008 - 7:01 pm 100. Storm-Rider:Kirk: Sulu, scan the surface for life forms.
Sulu: Captain, 5 life forms present in sector 7.
Kirk: Target status.
Sulu: Wanted Dead or Alive, sir.
Kirk: Destroy enemy targets with Photon torpedoes.
Sulu: Yes sir; proton torpedoes away, sir.
I stand corrected.
Photon torpedoes are a standard ship-based weapon armed with an antimatter warhead.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weapons_of_Star_Trek
Sep 13, 2008 - 7:29 pm 101. Storm-Rider:Kirk: Sulu, scan the surface for life forms.
Sulu: Captain, 5 life forms present in sector 7.
Kirk: Target status.
Sulu: Wanted Dead or Alive, sir.
Kirk: Destroy enemy targets with Photon torpedoes.
Sulu: Yes sir; photon torpedoes away, sir.
Oops, now I stand corrected.
Photon torpedoes are a standard ship-based weapon armed with an antimatter warhead.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weapons_of_Star_Trek
Sep 13, 2008 - 7:30 pm 102. exhelodrvr:oMan,
“My guess on a physical characteristic of the suspect, observable at a distance as by UAV, would be gait.”
They would be able to measure the size of the target pretty accurately; combine that with some other more individual characteristic such as gait, and with a fairly specific geographic area, and you have a pretty accurate identification.
Sep 13, 2008 - 9:09 pm 103. exhelodrvr:RWE,
“Forms 601B in NLT 0900 on Monday with no errors”
Actually, if the skipper says he wants them at 0900, you really need to get them in NLT 0830.
Sep 13, 2008 - 9:11 pm 104. Ashcat:Ultra wideband (UWB) would seem to be a good candidate technology. Ultra wideband imaging radar can penetrate earth and buildings, and is discriminating enough to detect human heartbeats and respirations. If one can see humans through walls and other barriers and measure their heart rate and respirations, I strongly suspect that individuals could be identified and differentiated based upon changes in these variables with movement. For example, there should be fairly regular relationship between my movements within or outside my home and changes in my heart rate/respirations. Compared to my daughter, who is half my weight and in a much better physical condition, the increase in my heart rate associated with even moderate physical activity is likely to be quite different than hers. Once I can be differentiated and seen through walls, I can be continuously tracked anywhere. All that is left to assign is whether I’m a good guy or bad guy. UWB also has the advantage of being very difficult to detect and jam.
Here are a few links regarding UWB:
http://www.informit.com/articles/article.aspx?p=384461
http://teams.eas.muohio.edu/CCLIEM/radar/
http://www.navysbir.com/n07_2/n072-127.htm
this excerpt from the final link:
Sep 13, 2008 - 9:18 pm 105. RWE:*UWB imaging systems/surveillance sensors can operate from 1.99-10.6 GHz. These frequencies are sufficiently high, with short enough wavelengths, and wide enough bandwidth, to provide high ranging resolution, sufficient to detect heartbeat and respiration. RF’s longer wavelengths than optical and IR provides the advantage of working in all weather conditions.*
Exhelo:
Actually, in reality the forms most likely are due at 0900 on TUESDAY. The GS-6 who collects them likes to have them in by 0900 on Monday so that she can review them and then go to lunch at 1100 without worry or delay. And the Senior MSgt she provides them to likes to have them in by 1300 so he can review them all in time to go home at 1600 with no problem.
Ever hear the story of the Flypaper Effectivness Report? An NCO at a large Army base invented and started to send in such a report every week, after having gridded the mess hall he ran off into sectors and hung a piece of flypaper in each one. He would count the flys at the end of the week and provide the results in the report.
Nothing happened until after the third week, at which point the NCOs in charge of all the other mess halls on base all came rushing over to find out how to do the report. HQ had noted they were deficient in providing the reports and chewed them out. It all confirmed the NCO’s suspicions abut the Army.
Sep 14, 2008 - 5:34 am 106. exhelodrvr:RWE,
Sep 14, 2008 - 8:11 am 107. Mike:LOL – never heard that one before, but unfortunately, it doesn’t surprise me!
This whole topic is disappointing, to say the least.
Wretchard (and the Belmont Club) often discuss interesting ideas and different takes on apparent events in order to dig a little closer to the truth. Often, cool ideas come out of this – and possibly enter the zeitgeist.
Woodward obviously believes he broke news about an important secret weapon here. I realize that he’s often full of it, but if he is right, why speculate?
If the weapon is what I believe, general knowledge of it will blow it out of the water (the bad guys don’t need to build one to defend against it) and we’re out a major arrow in our quiver. Even if I’m wrong about its nature, the real thing could depend just as heavily on secrecy.
As far as the idea this story was planted by some PsyOps black hat, get real. I doubt any jihadi is going to get more scared than they already are, being hunted down and exterminated every night throughout Iraq. This excuse is used every time the New York Times, Woodward, and their ilk expose another secret in the arsenal.
The net is a very transparent place. If someone here does successfully speculate on the weapon, it could give help to the jihadis or major countries that just want to see America’s nose bloodied. As people noticed, some of those very types were visible enough a few weeks ago with the Georgia crisis.
Please think carefully about what’s at stake. And please remove the topic so there’s no more speculation here on it.
Sep 14, 2008 - 4:20 pm 108. Roy Lofquist:Dear RWE,
That one is a variation on the actual event that was described and documented in Computer World before it became a pop publication for PC users. The head of data processing – archaic but more apt – of a large company was faced with a bottleneck in printing capacity. Back then the price of a dependable 600 lpm printer was about the twice the annual income of the guy who fed the paper. His method was to not deliver a few voluminous reports each week. If nobody complained after two weeks it was gone. Caused quite a stir at the time.
Regards,
Sep 14, 2008 - 6:50 pm 109. Mad Fiddler:Roy
Thanks Mike. You’ve re-stated a simple truth that needs to be kept in mind by all of us.
Sep 15, 2008 - 7:59 am 110. Cannoneer No. 4:ISR Evolution
in the Iraqi Theater
The BCTs (Brigade Combat Teams) of 2003 had little to no ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance) capability, no top secret/sensitive compartmented information communications channel, inadequate intelligence analysis capability, limited human intelligence capabilities, and no properly equipped signals intelligence (SIGINT) platoons.
Furthermore, the available digital bandwidth
was insufficient to synchronize intelligence
databases within the BCT and did not meet
requirements for reachback to intelligence
architectures at echelons above division. In
fact, couriers were often sent with Flash drives to various command posts to synchronize intelligence databases. Commanders were rarely allocated more than an hour of FMV (full motion video) a week in the early stages of the war, and this
allocation was often underutilized since BCT
commanders did not know in advance when
they would control the asset. Even when the
BCT received FMV coverage, the ground
control station or the picture remained at
division level.
Today’s BCT has three times the original
analytic capability and twice the human
intelligence capability of a 2003 legacy BCT.
Additionally, each BCT has an organic tactical UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) platoon that provides 18 hours of FMV
coverage a day and can often count on and
plan for additional FMV support from a corps
asset allocated to support division operations. The BCT SIGINT platoon is equipped to meet today’s battlefield requirement, and Theater has resourced most BCTs with a cryptologic support team and SIGINT terminal guidance teams to augment their organic SIGINT analytic and collection capability, providing the ability to tap into vast national resources.
Most importantly, the BCT has ample
Sep 15, 2008 - 8:37 am 111. Thomas:bandwidth available to handle internal communications and to provide reachback to division and EAD (Echelons Above Division) intelligence architectures. BCT
commanders can now truly prosecute a multidisciplined intelligence fight and use tipping and cueing from all collectors to focus FMV ISR assets better, thereby improving agility and ability to gain and maintain contact with the enemy.
Photon Torpedoes:
Kirk would never use Photon torpedoes on individuals. That is what the trasporter was for, once locked in, the malcontents could be transported directly into the Brig, or deep space.
Sep 15, 2008 - 9:39 am 112. NahnCee:What was the range of the transporter? Could they be transported straight to the 23rd and a Half Century’s version of Gitmo? A prison planet over in the 4th quadrant?
But no, that would be illegal because they wouldn’t have had a trial, so it’s better to photon torpedo them while you have the chance.
Sep 15, 2008 - 11:16 am 113. Thomas:The Star trek universe was very american-centric. The writers obviously took the best country, their own, and projected it into the future. There were many episodes that included trials similar to what we have now. Presentation of evidence, juries, etc.
Photon torpedoes were physical objects that had to be manufactured. They were meant for ship to ship battles. In the case of bad individuals there was the transporter, which was ship to ship or ship to shore; or the ships phasers could do a wide dispersion beam ship to shore to stun a large area.
Sep 15, 2008 - 11:50 am 114. NahnCee:If there were just two or three of the miscreants, Spock could mind-meld them so they’d forget all about their intent to do Bad Stuff and become model Federation citizens. Although that didn’t seem to work very well on Klingons, so maybe mind-melding only worked on humans.
Phasers could also be set to kill, in addition to stunning a wide area.
Sep 15, 2008 - 12:41 pm 115. Joshua:Kirk would never use Photon torpedoes on individuals. That is what the trasporter was for, once locked in, the malcontents could be transported directly into the Brig, or deep space.
I don’t recall whether that was actually possible on Kirk’s Enterprise, but in practice I don’t believe they ever beamed anyone or anything directly from one place to another – the transport process always went through the transporter pads aboard the ship. It wasn’t until The Next Generation that site-to-site transport became commonplace.
And, of course, proton torpedoes were what Luke Skywalker used to blow away the Death Star.
Sep 15, 2008 - 4:51 pm 116. Ex-fetus:It’s the sunglasses, of course.
Sep 15, 2008 - 9:40 pm 117. Tim:[i]We should be careful not to get to exultant about the paranoia, venality and disorganization of the enemy. First, we should not do so because it is both unattractive and morally flawed.[/i]
Nonsense.
Sep 17, 2008 - 9:52 am 118. anon in tx:terahertz imaging
Sep 18, 2008 - 7:54 am 119. Cannoneer No. 4:Chasing Chop And Gait
The oldest biometric is your appearance, which is pretty unique. Next came fingerprints, which were first recognized as a biometric indicator four centuries ago, but did not become a feature of police work until 150 years ago. That was followed by blood types and a whole bunch of stuff you could only do with dead bodies. But in the past few decades, there’s been a lot more. DNA, automated facial recognition, iris patterns and many more. But all this has been accompanied by new technologies that have made it easier to collect, store and retrieve biometric data. That made it possible to use biometric data on the battlefield. Al Qaeda was defeated in Iraq partly because of a huge (several hundred thousand individuals) biometric database, collected during raids or after arrest by U.S. troops. This took anonymity away from many terrorists, and potential terrorists or terrorist supporters. Made it much easier to run down the bad guys later.
Sep 19, 2008 - 3:39 amSorry, comments for this entry are closed at this time.