When faced with a particularly hard problem it is sometimes easier to imagine a solution and work your way backwards, traveling the goal back to the starting point. Imagine that that the US wanted to mount a “Surge” in the Afghanistan/Pakistan theater, who would the Surge be built around? If walking the cat back from that solution sounds too hard; let’s try something easier. Imagine that the US expanded the war in Afghanistan to include Pakistan — who would be there to greet US troops in the same way they were greeted upon entering Baghdad — who would our allies be? Maybe the problem begins with terminology itself. Christopher Hitchens notes that “The very name Pakistan inscribes the nature of the problem. It is not a real country or nation but an acronym devised in the 1930s by a Muslim propagandist for partition named Chaudhary Rahmat Ali. It stands for Punjab, Afghania, Kashmir, and Indus-Sind. The stan suffix merely means ‘land.’”
So which geopolitical Pakistan does Hitchens refer to when he argues that a forceful intervention is now inevitable? “Sen. Barack Obama has, if anything, been the more militant of the two presidential candidates in stressing the danger here and the need to act without too much sentiment about our so-called Islamabad ally. He began using this rhetoric when it was much simpler to counterpose the ‘good’ war in Afghanistan with the ‘bad’ one in Iraq. Never mind that now; he is committed in advance to a serious projection of American power into the heartland of our deadliest enemy. And that, I think, is another reason why so many people are reluctant to employ truthful descriptions for the emerging Afghan-Pakistan confrontation: American liberals can’t quite face the fact that if their man does win in November, and if he has meant a single serious word he’s ever said, it means more war, and more bitter and protracted war at that—not less.” But if forceful intervention is now in the cards, then for what purpose, and against whom?
Tx Hammes in the Small Wars Journal puts the question succinctly: what strategic framework will guide any American intervention in Pakistan? Who will be cheering the US going in? What groups can US forces build a “surge” around in a country which Hitchens describes as a list of place names unified by a suffix for “land”? Hammes described the dangers of going in without a clear goal:
In the last month, both presidential candidates have stated they wish to send more troops to Afghanistan. Unfortunately, neither candidate has stated what he sees as the United States’ strategic interests in Afghanistan. Even more dangerous, neither candidate has expressed a strategic framework for the region. … Even worse, to date, the candidates are discussing only Afghanistan without mentioning Pakistan or India. Yet both these Southwest Asian nations are much more critical to the United States future than Afghanistan. Neither candidate has questioned the wisdom of bombing, and likely destabilizing Pakistan, a nuclear-armed nation of almost 170 million people, in order to help our security efforts in Afghanistan. …
And then there’s the question of opium. If there’s any place on earth where the War on Terror intersects with the War on Drugs (with the possible exception of FARC in Latin America) it is Afghanistan. Opium is one of the largest sources of income of the Taliban. Douglas Farah at the Counterterrorism Blog writes: “Adm. Michael Mullen, chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, has sounded the alarm on Afghanistan, correctly pointing out that the danger of losing there is real and the hour is late. … What is striking about the published reports of Mullen and Defense Secretary Gates is the absence of any discussion of one of the driving forces of the Taliban’s mounting success: its access to tens of millions of dollars in opium and poppy money. The UN conservatively estimates the Taliban makes between $50 million and $70 million a year from the drug trade. Talk about ignoring the elephant in the room! Here is the prototype of future terrorist and insurgent movements deriving its income from non-state sources, and combating that figures into the policy at best in a marginal way.” Ever since 1979, opium has been the treasury of Afghanistan’s periphery in its revolt against central government. “Drug traffickers have a symbiotic relationship with insurgents and terrorist groups such as the Taliban and al-Qaeda. Instability makes opium cultivation possible; opium buys protection and pays for weapons and foot soldiers, and these in turn create an environment in which drug lords, insurgents and terrorists can operate with impunity.” The only alternative to the opium trade is the economic development of Afghanistan. That will take decades and depends in part on normalizing relationships with Iran, which provides the only other road, besides Pakistan, to the sea.
Part of the problem with crafting a strategy in Afghanistan is envisioning what the solution looks like. Too many variables are still in play to predict what the final configuration of the region will look like. Both Afghanistan and Pakistan are on a long an uncertain road to stability with no guarantee that they will reach their destinations. For the moment both Afghanistan and Pakistan will be dominated by factions and gangs. About all America can attempt in the short run is to remain the “strongest gang”. While cross-border operations and UAV strikes cannot bring stability in themselves they can deny the Taliban and al-Qaeda the power to establish a mini-state in the border areas. The Daily News reports that President Bush has authorized a more aggressive campaign across the border into Pakistan.
To beat back Al Qaeda and an resurgent Taliban, the CIA has unleashed a series of missile strikes by unmanned drones in Pakistan’s lawless tribal belt. Cross-border missions by special operations forces based in Afghanistan are also increasing, officials told The News. “There has been a big push,” said a U.S. intelligence official. “As targets become available, there’s a lot less hesitation now. When they’re in our sights, we pull the trigger.” President Bush secretly authorized the offensive.
Until Afghanistan and Pakistan settle down, winning means not losing. But it doesn’t imply the absence of strategy. When a fluid situation can only be addressed opportunistically a clear strategic vision is at its most important. The area has to be calmed down piece by piece guided not so much by a final plan, but by a set of principles which lead to improved solutions.
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131 Comments
1. cjm:buy the poppies for use as medicinal morphine, destroy all illicit crops. split the country into three parts: one part joined with afghanistan, one part joined with india, and we keep the third piece (along the coast). disband the isi and military. don’t try and pacify the cities, just let them die over time.
Sep 16, 2008 - 12:30 am 2. SamIam:The United States needs to let the tar baby (Afghanistan) go on this one and simply eradicated the evil to its best ability and then move on, there was no “Nation” at least in the 20th or 21st century idea of one and so the United States does not and should not try to rebuild what really was not there (Nation building should not be the rule of thumb after every military operation). Pakistan is much the same, eliminate all the possible resources that could be used to create B-C-N-Bombs and then move on. Really folks, look at all the “Islam” nations, the best that can be produced is Turkey, Turkey only got to where it is by having a Military that threw out elected governments (which always were Islamic and always will be) when they became too radical and threatens the Militaries upper leaderships role as protectorate, Islam is nothing more than Jungle rule (strongest survives by taking from the weak) and at best leads only to “dictatorship” style governments.
Sep 16, 2008 - 1:16 am 3. Cannoneer No. 4:Osama bin Laden and Mullah Omar sucked us in to an Afghan Campaign. We did amazingly well until Tora Bora. Afghanistan was such a mess that anything we did for them was an improvement. It took about two years for Afghan gratitude to dry up.
When we went into Afghanistan, Central Asians understood that we had to make al Qaeda pay. The Uzbek dictator Karimov eagerly accepted our money in return for his Karshi Khanabad air base and his rail links to Germany. The Kyrghiz let us buy a tanker base at their international airport. The Tajiks let the French and Indians have bases. The Chinese and the Russians disapproved, and formed the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation to out-bribe us and get us out of Central Asia. Worked pretty well. By 2005 all our logistics eggs were in Pakistan’s basket. Afghanistan became a secondary effort, a side show, an economy of force operation not because anybody took their eye off any ball but because even a global super power can’t logistically support a main effort in Central Asia from North America.
Iraq eclipsed Afghanistan because Iraq was a more strategically significant country, near a U. S. ally (Kuwait) eager see their invader humbled and willing to provide Aerial and Sea Ports of Debarkation, run by a villain whose address we knew. Toppling the Taliban and running off Osama was insufficient payback for 9/11. Saddam had been asking for it since 1991, and we could get to him, so we did, and 70% of us thought it was a good idea at the time. Now most Americans have forgotten 9/11. The demand for revenge has been sated.
Now that Iraq is winding down, Americans are noticing that we have significicant forces pinned down in Afghanistan. If we leave, the Bad Guys win. Everybody we lost died in vain. If we stay as “guests” of the “Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan”, bribing every indig who extends his palm to be greased for the privilege of building and protecting his country for him they’ll take us for everything we got until we give up in disgust and leave.
What strategy get us out of there looking like winners, with our honor intact and our sacrifices worthwhile?
Sep 16, 2008 - 2:07 am 4. Bob Murphy:We really need to have a Radio Free Europe type operation in the Afghanistan, Pakistan area, and another one for Iran, and…
Sep 16, 2008 - 2:08 am 5. Cannoneer No. 4:I think the line we should be taking is that we have no intention of violating any properly policed area of Pakistan.
But the government of Pakistan does not rule in the tribal areas. That being the case, we reserve the right of hot pursuit into those areas and the right to eliminate those who invade Afghanistan and those who harbor them.
And then offer assurances that we act only on very good information and with great accuracy.
I think we could add that any time the Pakistani armed forces are up to imposing order on Waziristan and the rest of those lawless places we will strongly support their efforts.
BTW I think the same principle should go for Iran and Syria. I think they need a hint or two about what we can do.
Hey, it sucks to be there. You know what would suck worse? Having it be for nothing.
Sep 16, 2008 - 2:14 am 6. Cannoneer No. 4:Beyond the Khyber Pass
Sep 16, 2008 - 2:16 am 7. Bob Murphy:@Cannoneer
Sep 16, 2008 - 2:22 am 8. a Duoist:I agree with what you say about Afghanistan but what do we do about Pakistan?
If the Taliban and al Qaeda could use Afghanistan as a base for 9/11, they could use the tribal areas as a base to destabilise and take over Pakistan and retake Afghanistan.
Can we afford to let that happen?
I think most of the Pakis are nuts.
I would hate to get involved there on the ground. The whole nation is an accident looking for a place to happen, and, of course,they’ve got nukes.
If it wasn’t for the nukes we could walk away and do what we could to support India which has the weight and social density to be a brick wall for fundamentalist Islam.
Behind all this stuff the more important issue by far is Iran and we are running out of time to deal with their nuclear program. We should be destabilizing their government to blazes but with a limp dick leftie CIA in the way, just how would we go about that? Iran is very volatile and we are throwing away opportunity after opportunity to weaken the mullah kooks and their flunkies in the Revolutionary Guard. A successful campaign would open up new possibilities in dealing with the mullahs.
And if we or Israel did hit the mullah’s nuclear program and the Revolutionary Guards and Iran’s only significant refinery at the same time, it could well bring the mullahs down, especially with a bit of psyops beforehand.
Pakistan has long been the ‘bomb-a-month’ country, with urban elites utterly disparate from rural majorities. Tribalism isn’t just rampant; tribalism is the only sinew that holds together this facade of a nation-state. With no public education from their government, the mosques have stepped in–since the collapse of the Soviet Union–to build 30,000 to 80,000 new madrassas, 15% of which are radical. Abul Mawdudi is the favorite Pakistani philosopher, with a theofascist ideology just as deadly as Sayyid Qutb’s or Ruhollah Khomeini’s or Ibn Wahhab’s.
As for $70 million a year to the Taliban from the Afghan drug trade, nothing better illustrates America’s
ineffective foreign policy because of our penchant for moral dichotomies.
‘Illegal drugs’? Make them legal, and then watch the Taliban starve financially. But the finger-pointing moralists who set our policies will never abide legalization of human vices, so instead, the Taliban kills us twice; once with bullets, and again when we buy the drugs to pay them to purchase more bullets.
Over all of this hovers nuclear armaments, assured to be safe by a government that cannot protect its citizens from a new bomb-of-the-month.
What to do? First, buy every one of those Pakistani nuclear warheads; every damn one of them. Then, buy the Afghan farmers’ poppy crops, at a premium price. Third, pull out, letting 1,000 year old tribal enmities rule the two unruleable countries.
Buy out their nukes; outbid the Taliban for the poppies; withdraw to civilization. If not for a rational American foreign policy, do it for Allah, the Compassionate and Merciful.
Sep 16, 2008 - 2:32 am 9. Cannoneer No. 4:Pakistan continues to exist for the same reason North Korea continues to exist. No upwardly mobile 21st-Century Westphalian nation-state wants to assume responsibility for millions of primitive, dysfunctional, unemployable and unassimilatable neighbors. India will tolerate an enormous amount of crap from Pakistan to avoid that.
The Paks got nukes on Hillary’s husband’s watch. Those nukes aren’t that big a deal as part of Pakistan’s war machine. They’re a disaster waiting to happen if allowed to slip in to the hands of al Qaeda, Iran, Hezbollah or Venezuela. There is no real way to take those nukes away from the Paks. Neither can the Paks be trusted with them. And if we retaliate against them after an attack on us we irradiate India.
What does America have the will to do about Pakistan? There are many things that we cannot afford to let happen that we will let happen because half of us don’t trust the other half.
Sep 16, 2008 - 3:05 am 10. Cannoneer No. 4:They won’t sell their Islamic Bombs to infidels. Their nukes are the only reason anybody takes them seriously.
Sep 16, 2008 - 3:14 am 11. Cannoneer No. 4:A Marine Air-Ground Task Force with about 2,000 Marines will deploy to Afghanistan in November, followed in January by 3,700 soldiers from the 3rd Brigade Combat Team, 10th Mountain Division from Fort Drum, N.Y., the DOD announced Monday.
The Marine task force will include the 3rd Battalion, 8th Marines, based out of Camp Lejeune, North Carolina, as well as air, logistics and headquarters elements, Pentagon spokesman Bryan Whitman told reporters Monday.
Sep 16, 2008 - 3:29 am 12. Cannoneer No. 4:Admiral Mullen due in Islamabad to discuss security situation
Sep 16, 2008 - 3:36 am 13. Cannoneer No. 4:Pak deploys F-16s to deter US from attacking militants
Sep 16, 2008 - 3:38 am 14. Cannoneer No. 4:. . . The United States has a lot of information on where the terrorists, especially al Qaeda, are in Pakistan, but having Pakistani troops act on that information doesn’t work. The terrorists tend to get tipped off by their fans in the army and intelligence agencies, and this endangers the informant network the U.S. has set up in the tribal areas. The Pakistanis admit this is a problem, and has long been tolerating some American operations inside Pakistan. For several years, U.S. Predator UAVs were tolerated, along with an occasional Hellfire missile fired at meetings of senior terrorist leaders. But many such opportunities would be better exploited if commandoes were sent in to capture the terrorist leaders. In the last few months, the U.S. changed its policy, after quietly warning the Pakistani leadership, and allowed commando raids despite Pakistani protests. It didn’t take long for the Pakistani terrorists and media everywhere to get hold of this and raise a stink. This forced the Pakistanis to go through the motions of protesting and vowing to fight the American invaders. The Pakistanis threatened to halt NATO supplies, which go from a Pakistani port, via truck, into Afghanistan. But that’s a hollow threat, as Pakistan depends on American weapons and other military aid, to equip Pakistani forces sufficiently so they can deal with archenemy India. Pakistan’s only other supplier is China, which provides decidedly inferior weapons, at least compared to the American stuff.
Taliban Fall Back
Sep 16, 2008 - 3:43 am 15. khalid:why dont you be off froom these land and go stay with your family dont create more problem for us america is creating problem its not america its ZIONNIST.america stop playing their games america is not allowing pakistan to get gas line from iran why?becouse its intention is diffrent who did 9/11 its jews if its al-quaeda than what happen after 9/11 most dangerous people on earth jews
Sep 16, 2008 - 4:04 am 16. Cannoneer No. 4:America is Retreating Everywhere Except In Pakistan
The Americans are tied up in Iraq and Afghanistan and their threats have more bluster than bite. This does not mean we go to war with Washington, which is still a superpower. It means that Pakistan, too, can deftly handle the cowboys.
Sep 16, 2008 - 4:24 am 17. Cannoneer No. 4:In Pakistan, Sympathy for the Taliban
Sep 16, 2008 - 4:29 am 18. Cannoneer No. 4:Pakistan’s army spokesman says its forces have orders to open fire on U.S. troops if they launch another raid across the Afghan border.
Sep 16, 2008 - 4:32 am 19. MarkJ:“Khalid,”
Thanks for the comments. The only thing you’ve established is that you’re part of the problem we’re discussing.
Now go back and finish reading your copy of “Mein Kampf” in the original German.
Sep 16, 2008 - 4:41 am 20. Cannoneer No. 4:Progress in Afghanistan gets rockier
Flush with hundreds of millions of dollars from taxing poppy and opium traffickers, and free to recruit in the Pashtun region’s ubiquitous madrassas, or Islamic religious schools, the Taliban faces few attacks in Pakistan other than an occasional strike by a U.S. Predator unmanned aircraft, such as the one that killed four Islamist militants on September 4, and an occasional cross-border raid similar to the controversial operation by U.S. Special Forces on September 1 in south Waziristan that killed as many as 20 people.
Pakistan vehemently criticized that operation as an infringement on its territory. After its own brief offensive in the tribal areas in late August, Pakistan announced the suspension of all military operations against the Taliban and Islamist militants for the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, which ends in early October.
“Overall, the Pakistan military has significantly reduced its level of activity near the border, which we think is connected to the informal cease-fires that the civilian government has reached with insurgents in the tribal areas earlier this year,” said ISAF spokesman Mark Laity. “As a result, we’re seeing many more insurgents crossing over from Pakistan than in the past.”
U.S. and allied commanders came late to the realization that creating viable Afghan security forces is their ultimate ticket home.
. . . as long as the syndicate of about 14 terrorist and insurgent groups that make up the Taliban and its allies operates freely on the other side of the border with Pakistan, commanders of the joint task force know they will essentially have to fight a rearguard holding action.
“Look, this is the Hindu Kush, and there aren’t enough soldiers in anyone’s army to seal this border off completely,”
Sep 16, 2008 - 4:55 am 21. Cannoneer No. 4:Whereas our supply chains originate from places like the U.S. and U.K., with convoys at the mercy of Taliban in Pakistan, the Taliban supply chain starts right outside the bases. In addition to terrorist and criminal interdictions of convoys, the Pakistan government can, on a whim, shut down most of our logistics convoys. The vast majority of US and NATO/ISAF forces and contractors conduct support/logistics functions, while a relatively small number actually fight. Meanwhile, the Taliban support/logistics functions are organic. The corn grows 20 yards from the place they eat it. The farmers can double as informants, hoteliers, and fighters. — Death in the Corn: Part I of III by Michael Yon
Sep 16, 2008 - 5:21 am 22. Buck Smith:I have been saying for tears that legalizing drug traffic is a flanking maneuver which cuts key a enemy supply line. True in Pakistan and in Colombia, although we have just about won it in Colombia anyway.
Sep 16, 2008 - 5:37 am 23. Mark:While I don’t have any clue about how the US should proceed re. Afghanistan and Pakistan, I suspect that new Centcom leader Petraeus will have some ideas. Stay tuned.
Sen. Obama’s military ideas about Pakistan echo Pres. Clinton’s: talk tough and fire missiles?
Sep 16, 2008 - 6:13 am 24. Aether:–snip———–
a Duoist:
‘Illegal drugs’? Make them legal, and then watch the Taliban starve financially. But the finger-pointing moralists who set our policies will never abide legalization of human vices”
—————–
Buck Smith:
I have been saying for tears that legalizing drug traffic is a flanking maneuver which cuts key a enemy supply line.
—————–
Folks,
While I agree that the “Drug War” in general is a demagogic and counter-productive sham, I don’t believe that legalizing Heroin is a particularly good idea.
Have you folks ever KNOWN any Heroin addicts ? or anyone thats contracted HIV ? how about any heroin addicts with full blown AIDs ? it’s a downright nasty drug.
Sep 16, 2008 - 6:47 am 25. rumcrook:ummmm yeah kalid its the joooooss, thier the ones responsible for all the death, yeah all over the world joooos are the ones cutting off heads of school girls and teachers, stoning retarded women enslaving children and murdering whole villages for not being part of thier religion of peeeze
Sep 16, 2008 - 6:54 am 26. trish:The Taliban has kept itself relatively clean in the opium trade in Afghanistan, making eradication and interdiction efforts far more problematic than is the case here in Colombia, where FARC moved heavily into the business post-Pablo – and the public has in turn rejected FARC.
It always helps to have the bad guys acting in a truly consistent fashion. Afghanistan doesn’t have that present “advantage” when it comes to opium. But that just means you have to find other ways to skin that cat.
So to speak.
Sep 16, 2008 - 6:59 am 27. Cannoneer No. 4:US officials: Al-Qaida unpopular and ‘imploding’
Top U.S. counterterrorism officials Monday said al-Qaida is “imploding” and that its violent tactics have turned Muslims worldwide against the organization. “Absolutely it’s imploding. It’s imploding because it’s not a message that resonates with a lot of Muslims,” said Dell Dailey, the State Department’s coordinator for counterterrorism.
Sep 16, 2008 - 7:37 am 28. cjm:the poppy crops can be bought for production of medicinal moriphine without legalizing heroin.
Sep 16, 2008 - 7:48 am 29. pst314:“The very name Pakistan…is an acronym devised in the 1930s by a Muslim propagandist”
Not only that, “paki” means “pure” in Urdu and Persian, so that Pakistan means “land of the pure”, and as khalid reminds us, their loony fanaticism has not decreased.
Sep 16, 2008 - 7:51 am 30. Konyok:cjm,
I agree with you in principle, the problem is that we are already doing that – in Turkey. To stabilize a key NATO ally and slow down the flow of heroin into Europe in the 50’s, we established a program to license and buy all of the opium produced in Anatolia.
What intrigues me, however, is the notion that there might just be a lot of really useful alkaloids in the poppy that have never been studied. The narcotic compounds are so obviously valuable that it’s likely that everything else in the plant is dismissed without examination. (In the early days of the oil business, kerosene was the target. Gasoline was a nuisance … )
It very well might be that purchasing the poppy crop outright would be cheaper than eradication.
Sep 16, 2008 - 7:52 am 31. njartist:What are the possibilities of creating genetically modified poppy seeds and aerially distributing them at planting season? Either that or send in insect pests that feed on poppies.
Sep 16, 2008 - 7:57 am 32. Morton Doodslag:Even if Muslim nations such as Pakistan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Turkey, or fill-in-the-blank are temporarily persuaded or temporarily pushed into our sphere of influence for the exigency of the day, the fact remains that, as Muslim nations, they will ultimately remain at war with all infidel nations until Islam dominates the world or is destroyed.
We play at games pretending that there will ever be peace with the Muslims. If they have access to funds and Muslims, their “religion” requires that they wage Jihad to spread Islam Uber Alles. That’s a fact we all ignore to our peril.
“Muslim Ally” is a fugitive arrangement, an arrangement which will always revert to the normative state of war between Islam and the rest. “Muslim Ally” will always revert to “Muslim Enemy” as soon as the Muslim perceives his advantage in betraying us.
We are pretending that there is such a thing as “Muslim Ally” in the “War on Terror” in the vain hope Islam cannot possibly be as poisonous and fatally dangerous as it clearly is.
Sep 16, 2008 - 8:21 am 33. Cannoneer No. 4:Opium in Afghanistan: Eradicate or subsidize?
The high price of wheat has done more to reduce the acreage planted in opium than any eradication efforts.
If you buy their opium crop, they will just plant more.
Aerial Erad is what people who are serious about counter-narcotics do. But who is serious? Karzai ain’t about to give up his cut.
Sep 16, 2008 - 8:31 am 34. Cannoneer No. 4:We Are Not Losing In Afghanistan
Sep 16, 2008 - 8:46 am 35. Michael B:There’s a two hour interview with Yon on Afghanistan and Pakistan, here. The interview begins maybe 12 to 15 minutes into the audio.
Sep 16, 2008 - 8:59 am 36. Charles:I find that the most amazing news item to come out of afghanistan is that the price the farmers there are receiving for wheat is greater than the price they are receiving for opium poppies.
there is an enormous opportunity here to defund the taliban if the US can just swithc over the afghan farmers to growing wheat and provide them a market either through US soldiers or the US could act as middle men to sell the wheat through dubai.
Sep 16, 2008 - 9:02 am 37. Aether:The key winning ingredient of the “surge” in Iraq was the peeling away of popular support for the insurgency, by providing security, as well as alternative sources of livelyhood for the civilian population (ie. the Sheiks and their Tribes), and in particular, peeling away those SUNNI’s acting as contractors for the insurgency.
It stands to reason that an effective COIN operation (ie. “surge”) against the insurgents in the Afgan /Pakistan theatre would utilize a similar strategy, albeit with differing tactics.
As Wretchard indicates, a key concern in maintaining a surge into the Afgan /Pakistan theatre of operations, is the maintanance of Lines of Supply to support the logistics train of the Surging forces.
A key factor in the rise of the Taliban, was predicated on them providing security to a war weary populuace, as well as economic opportunity. Therefore a key tactic of the surge in Afganistan should be to BUY the support of the general populace, and to ensure they stay bought.
How can the US Forces achieve this goal ? The answer is of course BIO-DIESEL.
Converting the 200,000 heactacres of Poppy crop to BioDiesel could potentially generate 61,250,000 gallons of fuel, adding 100,000 hectacres each of desert viable jajoba and jatropha crops could generate another 90,000,000 gallons of Bio-Deisel
Opium Hectares = 200,000
Acre/HA = 2.47
US Acres = 494,000
Gal Diesel/Acre Opium = 124 G
Total Gallons Bio-Diesel = 61,256,000
The Jojoba plant in particular also provides byproducts such as feed stock for livestock. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jojoba
MSNBC has reported that the US is spending $ 475,000,000 on counternarctocis programs in Afghanistan. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/12480416/
Why not gain a tangible benefit from that expenditure ? Use it to purchase the Poppies at a cost of $7.70 per gallon, and in doing so, inject large sums of cash directly to the low level poppy farmers/ whom would now become Diesel producers.
The benefits of the Bio-Diesel approach would be the reduction of the ‘Logistics Tether”, by localizing fuel supplies within Afghanistan, reducing civilian support for the Taliban (by providing them with ongoing, long-term, economic alternatives to growing poppy crops), which in turn should reduce the amount of US/NATO troops neccesary to support ongoing COIN operations.
The ubiquity of Bio-Diesel crops in Afghanistan could lead to a winding down of operations in Afghanistan and provide US forces with the freedom of action to ramp up operations in the Pakistani Tribal Areas
Sep 16, 2008 - 9:04 am 38. Charles:In fact, with a little minder binder in dubai they could probably arrange for the wheat to be shipped north to western china for sale in those markets so as to avoid the now perilous pakistan transit.
Sep 16, 2008 - 9:06 am 39. NahnCee:Pakistan general has authorized his troops to fire on any American soldiers they find in Pakistan territory.
Kewl. I sincerely hope that means we finally get to drop the “allies” bullshit and start shooting back at them.
Sep 16, 2008 - 9:19 am 40. Konyok:Cannoneer,
Re: Your Complex Topics link.
The thing that really gripes me is that all of this “we took our eyes off of the real war in Afghanistan” rhetoric is the assumption that a Soviet style occupation is the proper strategy. The genius of our strategy in Afghanistan has precisely been the minimalism of our approach in that wild west frontier. We ousted the Taliban and denied AQ the open sanctuary needed to conduct truly spectacular operations like 9/11 and the embassy bombings. We have avoided an all out civil war and we are giving the Afghans the breathing space of relative peace to begin building an economy.
If we were to follow the advice of our progressive friends and pursue OBL without regard to other goals, we would indeed find ourselves in a quagmire.
Sep 16, 2008 - 9:21 am 41. Tcobb:I suspect that the best strategy we have is to do what we’ve been doing. Buy informants–identify and locate the ring leaders—and exterminate them.
Sep 16, 2008 - 9:50 am 42. Eggplant:Charles said:
“I find that the most amazing news item to come out of afghanistan is that the price the farmers there are receiving for wheat is greater than the price they are receiving for opium poppies. there is an enormous opportunity here to defund the taliban if the US can just switch over the afghan farmers to growing wheat…”
Assuming this information is true, Charles is onto something. Legalizing opium won’t work because it can easily be diverted to illegal use and the world is already well supplied with legal morphine (they grow it legally in Turkey and Tasmania, Australia). However we can always use more food. The answer is clear, create the situation where Afghan farmers can earn more money selling wheat than opium. If possible subsidize the growing of wheat. Allow economic forces to drive out the opium trade.
Sep 16, 2008 - 9:56 am 43. Lifeofthemind:We need to secure the nukes, with as much force as needed and without regard to collateral damage. We must secure them now. After that we can let India take the Punjab and the rest of Kashmir. If that means that 50 million unhappy Muslims threaten to riot then we should encourage India to kick them out over the border to Afghanistan, where they will starve.
The post WW-II doctrine that the civilian populations of conquered territories are inviolate is a fraud that has been used to destabilize the West. Stalin moved tens of millions around like pieces on a game board. The whole idea of protecting civilians from becoming refugees was based on a 19th century concept that these non-combatants were innocents who could not be held responsible for the actions that an aristocratic government carried out. That has no applicability to the world of mass movements and never was relevant to the conduct of members of trans-national movements like the Ummah. Israel is not responsible for the Palestinians. The rule has to be if your “Leaders” start a war or you and your community support aggression, violence and hatred then you can expect to suffer.
Should we send 100,000 men into Karachi and the Sind? I’d much rather for now see us using our air power to destroy the poppy crops and seal off the hinterlands. Our better return for expenditure of power now would be to hit Iran, remove the Mullahs and secure the Energy supplies, For God’s sake why are we being circumspect about that and cringing when some idiot screams “No blood for oil!” The oil is the only thing over there worth fighting for. Other than that we just want them to leave us alone and not send things, opium, bombs, maniacs, in our direction. Once we have done that then the barbarians will be outflanked and the Russians will be unable to use the Pathans to outflank us. That will allow the Americans, Indians and Chinese to sit down and craft a plan for greater Afghanistan that meets all of our needs.
Sep 16, 2008 - 9:59 am 44. Dr. Scott:Wheat fetches a higher price than poppies? If true, sure, let’s buy it. We’d probably come out ahead even if we wind up dumping it on the ground.
Sep 16, 2008 - 10:09 am 45. Cannoneer No. 4:Dream on, Life, and keep reading those Tom Clancy novels.
Sep 16, 2008 - 10:09 am 46. Aether:The appropriate answer is to convert the Poppy crop to BioDiesel.
Converting the 200,000 heactacres of Poppy crop to BioDiesel could potentially generate 61,250,000 gallons of fuel, adding 100,000 hectacres each of desert viable jajoba and jatropha crops could generate another 90,000,000 gallons of Bio-Deisel
Opium Hectares = 200,000
Acre/HA = 2.47
US Acres = 494,000
Gal Diesel/Acre Opium = 124 G
Total Gallons Bio-Diesel = 61,256,000
The benefits of the Bio-Diesel approach would be the reduction of the ‘Logistics Tether”, by localizing fuel supplies within Afghanistan, reducing civilian support for the Taliban (by providing them with ongoing, long-term, economic alternatives to growing poppy crops), which in turn would reduce the amount of troops neccesary to support ongoing COIN operations.
The growing of Bio-Diesel crops in Afghanistan could enable the US to wind down COIN operations in Afghanistan and provide US forces with the freedom of action to ramp up operations in the Pakistani Tribal areas.
Sep 16, 2008 - 10:22 am 47. Lifeofthemind:@Cannoneer,
Sep 16, 2008 - 10:27 am 48. Eggplant:The problem is that to many people who did think that life was a novel written by an insurance salesman bought into the idea that dealing with these problems would be cheap or clean or easy and could be done by a few super soldiers when no one was looking. Rumsfelds revolution in military affairs allowed them to buy into that fantasy. I think Rummy himself knew better but wanted to get some transformation done that he felt was needed. I am saying that we have to stop pretending that we should be dealing with a global strategic threat with a revamped CIA with more muscle and toys. This is more like WW-II in scope and we should respond to existential threats and strategic alignments less like JFK would have and more like FDR did.
Christopher Hitchens said:
“And that, I think, is another reason why so many people are reluctant to employ truthful descriptions for the emerging Afghan-Pakistan confrontation: American liberals can’t quite face the fact that if their man does win in November, and if he has meant a single serious word he’s ever said, it means more war, and more bitter and protracted war at that—not less.”
Key phrase:
“if he has meant a single serious word he’s ever said”
As if anything the Annointed One says should be regarded as truthful or just so much noise to get himself elected. What a laugh!
Sep 16, 2008 - 10:29 am 49. Cannoneer No. 4:Konyok, Democrats claim Afghanistan is the good war that Bush bungled solely to fool the rubes in the States.
We took a minimalist approach because we couldn’t logistically support any other kind.
If the international community functioned, the United Nations would have granted a mandate to the United States to rule Afghanistan as a colonial possession until it was pacified and capable of performing the duties of a sovereign Westphalian nation-state. Afghans have made colonial occupiers pay more than Afghanistan is worth so many times that the U. S. never really pushed for such a mandate, which the Russians or Chinese or French would have vetoed anyway. So now we are trying to influence, persuade, and change a “sovereign” Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan from a fiefdom around Kabul to a real country, all without the power, authority and legitimacy to hang a few opium cartel bribe recipients to encourage the others. All we have to keep the “friendlies” in line is the promise of more carrots.
Sep 16, 2008 - 10:34 am 50. Tom Holsinger:Victory for any large faction or group in Afghanistan, including foreign ones there, has never been possible. The most which is possible is to endur and minimize the carnage. We could, and will, maintain forces in Afghanistan for a hundred years and still need them there to protect ourselves.
The only way to change this is to depopulate Afghanistan, because the root cause of the problem is Afghans, and they’ve been that way for thousands of years.
Fortunately the cost to us is affordable for maintaining a sufficient military presence in Afghanistan, for a hundred years, to protect ourselves from further Afghan-rooted attacks on us at home.
Pakistan is a completely different problem.
Sure Pakistan makes our problems in Afghanistan worse. Maintaining a sufficient force in Afghanistan will be very difficult when Pakistan collapses, but we’ll have far worse problems when Pakistan collapses than we ever had, or will have, from Afghanistan.d
And Pakistan will get much, much worse. IMO true horror is coming to that place. The best we can hope for is to minimize the consequences of that for us at home. This may entail our making things in Pakistan much worse for the Pakistanis, until there is no more Pakistan. Which they may well do to themselves anyway.
Sep 16, 2008 - 10:38 am 51. Eggplant:Lifeofthemind said:
“This is more like WW-II in scope and we should respond to existential threats and strategic alignments less like JFK would have and more like FDR did.”
Get India on board. Pakistan is a huge threat to India. Make an alliance with India or use India as a proxy to neuter Pakistan and take down al Qaeda and the Taliban. There have been some recent high casualty terrorist bombings in India that were probably state sponsered by Pakistan.
Iran might get in bed with Pakistan (the Shia/Sunni thing might prevent that). Uzbekistan and Turmenistan might also get involved with Russia hovering in the background. A military alliance with India would have to be done with some delicacy.
Sep 16, 2008 - 10:43 am 52. Cannoneer No. 4:Life, FDR needed a Pearl Harbor to get the buy-in from the American people for total national mobilization. Neither Obama nor McCain will get that until some of those Pak nukes go off on us.
Sep 16, 2008 - 10:45 am 53. trangbang68:Khalid,
Sep 16, 2008 - 10:48 am 54. Cannoneer No. 4:Borat is that you? Nice of you to weigh in.
For the Indians, fighting and “winning” a nuclear war with Pakistan is no victory at all. What have they won when they win?
Sep 16, 2008 - 10:53 am 55. Eggplant:Cannoneer No. 4 asked:
“For the Indians, fighting and “winning” a nuclear war with Pakistan is no victory at all. What have they won when they win?”
How is this thing going to remain non-nuclear if Islamic Fascists gain complete control of Pakistan? The Indians must be considering pre-emptive action. They’d be crazy not to.
Sep 16, 2008 - 11:12 am 56. 09-16-08 | Drive Time Happy Hour:[...] Richard Fernandez: Pakistan — it’s not Iraq…Until Afghanistan and Pakistan settle down, winning means not losing. But it doesn’t imply the absence of strategy. [...]
Sep 16, 2008 - 11:15 am 57. David M:The Thunder Run has linked to this post in the – Web Reconnaissance for 09/16/2008 A short recon of what’s out there that might draw your attention, updated throughout the day…so check back often.
Sep 16, 2008 - 11:15 am 58. Lifeofthemind:I do not disparage most of Cannoneer’s criticism but we simply have to change the discussion to first consider these issues and then act. We need our own OODA loop to start functioning. I do like the idea of sealing off the Pakistan/Afghan end, while being all for as much economic transformation of incentives as possible, and then using the stick first on where the oil/gas is.
Sep 16, 2008 - 11:19 am 59. Cannoneer No. 4:Community Organizing, Pakistani Style
Sep 16, 2008 - 11:40 am 60. Nomenklatura:Reducing a global problem to one which is now mostly focused on Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan has been an awesome achievement. It has been obtained quickly and cheaply by most historical standards.
The remaining issues rightly belong to the next administration.
Sep 16, 2008 - 11:42 am 61. Old Blue:Wow. Tons of information and hypothesis. Lots of differing world views and views of the opium problem. How did the Taliban stop opium production when they were in power? The made an edict and ruthlessly enforced it. Period. People died, and others were afraid.
The Taliban has not divorced itself from the opium poppy; they are not clean. The people know it. Is this a problem for public relations? Sure. Do the Talibs care? Not so much. They will, if they succeed in overthrowing the IRoA, ban opium once again. In the meantime, they have the loyalty of those who grow it, move it, and protect it. It is a marriage of convenience, but they do not try very hard to deny the fact of their involvement. They simply point to a fatwa saying that it’s okay as long as the money goes to fight infidel occupiers, and that’s good enough for most.
I was there last year when the Presidential Decree was delivered to the provincial governors and they pushed it down to the district subgovernors; if you grow poppy, we will throw you in jail and confiscate your land.
The problem? Enforcement. What’s the problem with enforcement? Probably corruption in the judicial system.
Bribes.
When you figure out how much money the Taliban has available, figure in a cut for the local government officials, be they police or judicial or executive. Trust me, it’s there.
I’ve never seen more entrepreneurial people than Afghans. Money talks, goat sh1t walks. We were prevented from entering the Tag Ab Valley (by Presidential Decree) until the opium harvest was over. Why? I don’t know.
As far as Pakistan, I find it truly amusing that the same folks who were pressing for a “diplomatic solution” in Iraq have not exhausted all of those possibilities in Pakistan. Pakistan tolerated a certain amount of cross-border activity for quite some time, quietly sweeping it under the rug. Now, with quasi-presidential policies being broadcast by candidates about blatantly violating Pakistani territorial integrity, they must confront the threat publicly to avoid domestic problems.
And the border problems are nothing new. Last year there were several fights, including an artillery duel between Pakistanis and Afghans at the border. Troops on both sides died, and the American advisors to both the border police and the ANA were right in the thick of it. I listened to it on the radio as it occurred. I knew people who were involved.
Also last year an American Major died in Pakistan while leaving a Shura to discuss border issues. He was ambushed at the LZ as he was going to leave. The Pakistani issue has always existed, but nobody was paying attention.
Why was Afghanistan being ignored? It’s a lot more simple than some stuff about strategic importance.
Public interest.
Iraq was the hot potato. Iraq was the bitching point between the great American antagonists; Democratic leadership crying foul and Republican leadership having no choice but to make a success out of a difficult situation.
MainStream Media, the ever present circus ringmaster, kept public attention rooted on the spectacle of the bitching point.
It is actually in the Democrats best interest if Iraq does become a failure. It would prove them right, and there is always plausible deniability if their guy gets elected… he can simply claim that it was by its nature unwinnable and declare himself a soothsayer of Nostradamian proportions for having foreseen it.
We should all be so lucky in our lives as to be given the opportunity to prove ourselves prescient by gloriously failing. So, in this respect, McCain is absolutely correct; Obama WOULD absolutely happily lose a war to win an election. It is practically a requirement.
Remember this; all those who are currently in that nearly 70% who now supposedly oppose our continued presence in Iraq also get to prove themselves prescient as well. Note that nearly 50% were not in that 30% who originally either opposed or did not otherwise overwhelmingly supported the overthrow by force of Saddam Hussein.
Of course, according to almost all of them now, they certainly were part of that minority. They had to be to now prove themselves prescient also. Their prescience proves their intellectual primacy and the criminal stupidity of their political foes.
The current situation in Afghanistan only differs from three and four years ago in that the Pakistanis have shown a remarkable unwillingness to actually rule their own northwest territories and the fact that Taliban human resources being developed over the past few years are beginning to become available. The territorial issues are really nothing new. Other than the change of government, the really new development is the public focus on Pakistan and the widely published disrespect for Pakistani territorial integrity.
There is one other thing; superficial media coverage. Afghanistan is now being discussed and viewed on the MSM. Suddenly everyone is an Afghan analyst and an armchair expert on Pathan history, behavior, and ambitions. Everyone is a thoroughly schooled expert on how the Russians behaved and everyone has an expert opinion on how we should pursue our national interests in Central Asia. It’s an American mental sport.
Media spotlight: Poof!: Pundits.
Look, folks; this sh1t is nothing new. From my personal observations on the ground in a number of areas in the 201st Corps area, we ARE winning… slowly. That’s the nature of counterinsurgency. The most accurate assessment I’ve seen today is that the Afghan economy needs to be grown. A LOT.
Oh, to the biodiesel counternarcotics agent; wonderful idea. Were you aware that Afghanistan actually has oil? Were you aware that Afghanistan has significant natural gas reserves? Apparently not. Biodiesel from opium sounds fabulous. Not gonna work.
Real oil? Hmmmm… Real natural gas? Hmmmm…
How ’bout some help getting it out of the freakin’ ground? Create some jobs. It’s as hard to get an Afghan with a day job to run around at night planting IED’s as it is for a schlep to get his employed buddies out for a Tuesday late-nighter at the strip joint.
Keep the politics local, folks. Keep it local. One district at a time, one valley at a time. Make the Taliban irrelevant. Take their issues and make them your own. Coopt their message and make Osama irrelevant.
The worst thing that could happen to Afghanistan is if we actually killed Osama.
Sep 16, 2008 - 11:43 am 62. Cannoneer No. 4:Eggplant, what makes you think this thing is going to remain non-nuclear?
Sep 16, 2008 - 11:45 am 63. Buck Smith:Have you folks ever KNOWN any Heroin addicts ? or anyone thats contracted HIV ? how about any heroin addicts with full blown AIDs ?
The question is not whether heroin addicts with or without AIDs exist, or who knows them. The question is does prohibition prevent addicts. Do you know anyone who is stopped from abusing heroin because it is not sold in drug stores, but rather by a network of pushers? Do we have more alcoholics now than during prohibition?
Sep 16, 2008 - 11:50 am 64. Old Blue:Take invading Pakistan off the table. It’s asinine. Great big army, fairly modern weapons, nukes. Not a good idea. Lots and lots and lots and lots of dead Americans.
Did I mention lots of dead Americans? I meant lots and lots.
Return on investment? Trophy head of Osama on the wall?
Folks, it’s not about Osama. It’s about his audience. It’s not about this mullah or that mullah. It’s about their audience.
Why do they have an audience? Figure that out, coopt the message; make it your own if you can. Help resolve the issues.
And make the audience safe. Make them feel safe and secure and give their kids a future. It’s like spraying a whole can of Mullah-B-Gone.
Sep 16, 2008 - 11:55 am 65. Cannoneer No. 4:Old Blue, glad you made it.
Why is not the head of Osama bin Laden in an ice chest by late October a good thing for America?
Sep 16, 2008 - 11:56 am 66. Cannoneer No. 4:The worst thing that could possibly happen to the people of Afghanistan would be if we killed Osama bin Laden tomorrow. Joe Sixpack, thinking that this whole effort has been simply to hunt down Osama, will suddenly start wondering what the hell we’re doing in Afghanistan and in the information vacuum that is our MSM will come to the conclusion that its not much. He in his millions will demand the immediate cessation of all efforts and return to within our borders.
And the fledgling dream that is Afghanistan will surely die.
Sep 16, 2008 - 12:01 pm 67. Aether:Old Blue:
“How did the Taliban stop opium production when they were in power? The made an edict and ruthlessly enforced it.”
The Taliban did not stop heroin production while they werein power, they only pretended to, also IIRC, Afghanistan was under a severe drought during the 1999-2001 timeframe which did more to curtail Opium production than any Taliban edict ever could.
Sep 16, 2008 - 12:06 pm 68. Cannoneer No. 4:Old Blue, if the Paks are too tough for us, why can’t they control their own frontier regions?
Sep 16, 2008 - 12:09 pm 69. Old Blue:Cannoneer No. 4; That’s an excellent question, and I’m glad you asked it.
First, Osama is a symbol. Does anyone really believe that Osama bin Laden is a genius of terrorism? He’s not the one who figured out all the details. He was a money guy and a leader; a mouthpiece. Ayman is every bit as dangerous. There are certainly many others who we have not even heard about. The money would flow without Osama. It’s not his money that they are using now. It’s money that is raised from many people in many ways. Killing him won’t stop al-Qaeda, and it won’t stop what keeps those people phoning in their pledges on the telethons.
But it sure will make us feel happy.
For the Afghans, it would be the biggest disaster since the Russians invaded. Why?
Because we would leave.
Joe Sixpack won’t support continued efforts in Afghanistan once Osama is verifiably dead. Americans are convinced that the mission in Afghanistan is screwed up by virtue of our failure to get Osama in the first few months of the campaign. To Joe and Jill Sixpack, we went to Afghanistan to get Osama and nothing more. The only reason we’re still there, to Joe and the lovely Jill, is because we haven’t gotten his goat-smelling behind yet.
Afghanistan would be abandoned, once more, to that predations of the warlords and the Taliban.
This would suit the ISI quite nicely, by the way. They were early backers of the Taliban. For some reason, a strong and viable Afghanistan on their border does not appear to be considered by Pakistan to be in its best interests. Why they haven’t presented us with Osama’s head in an elegant presentation box is beyond me.
They just don’t know Americans. We will quit at the slightest provocation.
Why is that not good for America?
Because Osama is not really the problem, and because Afghanistan would once again be the petri dish of international terrorism. We’d just have to learn our lesson all over again.
Oh… and next time? They won’t use airliners as cruise missiles. But then, they hadn’t used them that way before. It’ll be something new.
In the meantime, Osama’s head will sure look swell in that elegant presentation box.
Sep 16, 2008 - 12:14 pm 70. Old Blue:Aether, no they did not stop it entirely. Blame it on the drought, but the people on the ground there credit the Taliban with severely curtailing opium production.
They were there; I was not. I’m inclined to believe the eyewitnesses.
Don’t forget; the Taliban never controlled the whole country. The HiG and the Taliban occasionally hold hands now, but Gulbudin gave them fits when they were the defacto government. The HiG weren’t the only group out there who controlled some territory and needed money.
Sep 16, 2008 - 12:19 pm 71. Old Blue:Cannoneer; They do seem to be cream puffs when they wander into Waziristan, don’t they? What’s up with that?
Oddly enough, they’ve given the Indians fits in the Kashmir.
I’m not saying that we couldn’t whip ‘em. We could. But this won’t be a popular uprising supported by SF and JTACS. This would be a forced entry, resisted occupation, and cause a backlash that we haven’t even imagined.
Efforts to get the civilian government to get their arms around the ISI are more likely to bear fruit. In the meantime, an Afghanistan capable of dealing with cross-border threats would be a good idea.
There was a quote above about securing the border. Nobody has to secure every foot of the border. There are a few major pipelines that need constant surveillance. Make it hard to move. Get really good at surveillance. Be capable of controlling those avenues.
First we have to secure the Afghan side.
Sep 16, 2008 - 12:27 pm 72. exhelodrvr:What is the possibility of buying the poppy crop at a rate x% higher than what the Taliban would pay?
Sep 16, 2008 - 12:29 pm 73. exhelodrvr:Eggplant,
“If possible subsidize the growing of wheat.”
It’s not so much the growing, as it is getting it to market. Reliable roads and transportation.
Sep 16, 2008 - 12:36 pm 74. Aether:Buck Smith:
“The question is does prohibition prevent addicts. Do you know anyone who is stopped from abusing heroin because it is not sold in drug stores, but rather by a network of pushers? Do we have more alcoholics now than during prohibition?”
I get your point that the “War on Drugs” is a sham, a bad joke ,a waste of taxpayers money, a waste of effort, and a violation of Americans constitutional rights.
The failure of the Drug War shows us that the profit motive of the suppliers will almost always undercut any interdiction efforts, and guarantees the supply side, and the addiction of the users guarantee’s the demand side of the equation.
That said, I’ve known a lot of addicts in my time, and I therefore know that the effects of certain drugs are far worse than others. Experience tells me that legalizing Heroin in particular is a BAD idea.
In the case of Afghanistan, the idea of attacking the supply of opium by converting it to Biodiesel is twofold; reduce the dependancy of the farmers on the Taliban and their Druglord allies, and reduce the logistics challenge the western forces are faced with.
A conversion effort may even make a temporary dent in the amount of Heroin on the market, until of course, other sources of supply come on line.
Sep 16, 2008 - 12:37 pm 75. RAH:Poppy versus wheat.
The reason wheat prices are higher is there is a wheat blight in the Middle East that is devasting Iranian wheat. So the high price of wheat is a seasonal item and not a long-term trend. Plus basis economics means that more poppy fields given over to wheat will depress the wheat price. The other problem is storage of the crop. Wheat does not survive long-term storage but opium does. Transportation is a problem being the crop to markets. Afghanistan has massive transportation problems.
Opium has a steady long-term price and can be stored for months. Plus the less bulk makes transportation easier
The reason that the Taliban has been more effective is better leadership from Pakistan. Part of that is Baitullah Mehsud a very talented military leader in the Pakistani Frontier.
NATO was responsible for handling Afghanistan and they screwed the pooch. Last year we had to increase troop significantly and move out the British leadership that allowed Taliban to hold cites in negotiated agreements like they did Basra. That allowed better logistical control and the prison break of Kandahar prison was a very well run operation.
Afghanistan is basically a Feudal structure and that is what we used in the first place to displace the Taliban. So again we need to work with the local tribal leaders to get them on our side and the local feudal warlords to work with us with bribes of autonomy, weapons and money.
Kharzai does not run or rule Afghanistan. His writ is only as large as the capital; it may even be smaller than that.
Continue to target Taliban and Pakistan military that is embedded in Taliban units and take them out in cross border raids and bombings. The Northwest Territories are not governed by Islamabad and realistically we should work our strategy based on that. So we treat the Northwest Territories as separate as work in that area to simple destroy targets. No need to try to rebuild those villages and give them services. We still try to target selectively to limit the villager’s anger and eliminate to desire to join the Taliban. But this is not a nation building exercise.
Later if the Taliban is reduced we let the NGO groups to rebuild Afghanistan to be a better place. They will fail since they generally have the wrong worldview but not our problem.
Sep 16, 2008 - 12:37 pm 76. Cannoneer No. 4:I have never been to the Pak border, but my perception has been managed to think that most of the foot and donkey trails into Afghanistan could be blocked with the proper application of high explosives. We don’t do that because our friends the Afghans don’t want those trails blocked.
All you gotta do is light this fuse. You got ten seconds to run like hell. Then dynamite, not faith, will move that mountain into this pass. Peace, brother.
Sep 16, 2008 - 12:46 pm 77. fedya:The Pakistani mountains — Hindu Kush — are, in fact, the “rear” but not just because our major supply lines run through it. It is the rear also because it is non-essential territory. Afghanistan is the locus of major North-South routes of the ancient Silk Road. Baluchistan and Afghanistan — to imitate Chuckabelle Shoomer — could be “a dagger to the heart” of Central Asia.
If national Baluchistan were carved out South-Westernmost Pakistan [and a slice of Easternmost Iran--this is, after all, conjectural], it could, with Afghanistan, offer relatively direct Central-Asian access to the sea without first jogging East through the Khyber Pass (cue threatening music and weeping).
If a deep water port can be constructed at Gwadar [?], near the present Iranian border, it would seem to be well connected by historic land routes North (via Turbat along the river valley, over the mountains at Shireza to the desert “flat” lands at Umaro around the desert sentinel mountain Gau Koh and across the dunes North into Helmand.
Perhaps it’s not feasible for rail because of excessively rough mountains and excessively drifty sand dunes. Tough terrain, but camels have been doing it for umpteen thousands of years… And there are already rail lines through similar terrain running from major Paki cities, just nothing North-South.
Sep 16, 2008 - 12:49 pm 78. Aether:Cannoneer No. 4:
“…if the Paks are too tough for us, why can’t they control their own frontier regions?”
Because the ISI and the Paki Army are completely infiltrated with the Talibani and their sympathizers. IIRC, roughly 30% of the army is comprised of Pashtun tribesmen from the F.A.T.A.
Sep 16, 2008 - 12:53 pm 79. Cannoneer No. 4:Free Baluchistan!
The Indians would bitch.
Sep 16, 2008 - 12:59 pm 80. Cannoneer No. 4:Seems like the Paks are not our friends.
Actually, they never were. Musharraf, at least, pretended well, and he did keep the LOC open, so we got our money’s worth out of him. He’s out now, and his replacement doesn’t get a sweet deal until he proves he can deliver.
Sep 16, 2008 - 1:06 pm 81. whiskey:There is not any solution, and it is now inevitable that Pakistan’s nukes, a few of them will be used to kill American cities. We can’t “secure” those nukes because Pakistan’s military is divided and mostly pro-Taliban/AQ, absent realistic fear of overwhelming military force, no one in Pakistan will secure the nukes.
It’s just a matter of time.
Liberals, Dems, the Media (but I repeat myself) have persuaded much of America and the world that the US can and should do nothing. Obama is merely making another promise he’ll throw under the bus, to avoid saying what he really wants to do — unilateral surrender in both Iraq and Afghanistan, “negotiations” and apologies to AQ and the Taliban, various “war crimes” tribunals for the Bush Administration, and wholesale surrender. No one in the Democratic Party, Liberals, and the Media is prepared to fight.
So of course, naturally, regardless of who wins, we’ll get several US cities nuked, since whoever does it can leverage that nuking to a bigger share of men, money, and power among Jihadis, with relatively little risk. With Obama, there will be apologies and groveling, and likely checks of $200 million or so, no strings attached, to various nations including Iran, so we won’t get attacked again. Which will only encourage more attacks, more nuking of American cities. Until a pure survival mode kicks in.
With McCain, we’ll at least retaliate massively, and that will be that. But let’s not kid ourselves. There is no prospect of “securing” Pakistan’s nukes absent a massive air strike and US ground invasion, which is not going to happen. Period. So US cities will die. Welcome to the world of nuclear proliferation.
Sep 16, 2008 - 1:15 pm 82. Old Blue:RAH:
“Kharzai does not run or rule Afghanistan. His writ is only as large as the capital; it may even be smaller than that.”
Sounds nice, sounds wise and pundit-like; not true. The IRoA is expanding its control over the country. Part of the reason for the increased violence is that the Taliban understand that they have a limited window of opportunity to destabilize the government before it gets too firmly established and too legitimate to topple easily. There are many problems, but the Karzai government has more of a grip than you give it credit for.
First, deal with your problems realistically. Kidding yourself one way or the other does not help you to understand the scope and approach it intelligently.
FYI, American troops are expressly forbidden from taking part in counter-drug operations as American units. I’ve got pictures of captured opium (small potatoes, but still opium… a few kilos,) but that was captured by the ANP I was working with, not Americans. Opium is not the centerpiece of the war, but controlling it is a crucial element to denying the Taliban a source of income.
Personally, I think that we should announce that next year we will cropdust. Then we should do it. If it kills other crops, then it does. One good year of that would go a long way towards people being afraid to starve when their other crops get an accidental dose of “Sevin” or some other weed killer.
That may sound harsh, and the British refused to do it.
Going after government corruption, demanding that the local officials do their jobs or be removed or jailed would be the best solution. The Taliban are playing the elected government’s worst weakness, traditional corrupt Afghan hierarchies, against itself. IRoA control should mean no poppy, and that’s not necessarily the way it is. When someone grows poppy, his land should be forfeit. Period. That’s what the decree says; that’s what should happen. That would change a lot.
You can’t hide poppies. Not in Afghanistan. It’s not like growing marijuana in the hills of Kentucky or southern Ohio.
Sep 16, 2008 - 1:16 pm 83. Cannoneer No. 4:Fixed Wing DC-3 Loadmaster/Mechanic
Employee will participate as a non-rated crew member on approved missions flown in support of the U.S. DoS, Bureau for International Narcotics and Law Enforcement, Affairs Office of Aviation (INL/A) counter narcotics program in the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan
Sep 16, 2008 - 1:33 pm 84. fedya:@RAH:
…let the NGO groups to rebuild Afghanistan to be a better place. They will fail since they generally have the wrong worldview but not our problem.
That is precisely our problem. Afghanistan is bordered by Turkmenistan, Uzbekitstan and Kajikistan. North of them are huge Kazakhstan and tiny Kyrgyztan. North of them is Russia. East of them is China. The trans-Caucasus is a choke point between them and the West. Afghanistan-Baluchistan is their shortest (albeit very rough) land route to high seas via the Arabian Sea.
Paying them to grow bio-diesel crops makes a lot of sense because it ameliorates our military logistical problems, gives the Afghani’s freedom of action, and cuts off the Taliban’s air. Perhaps the Paki’s would be amenable to a Helmand-Baluchistan rail route, too.
Pakistan’s East-West rail line from Quetta to Zahedaqn, Iran (also highway 40) would intersect an Afghanistan to Gwadar line, giving Quetta (and Spin Boldak in Afghanistan) an alternative to Highway 25 or the Hyderabad railway routes to the sea.
Autonomous or not, Baluchistan presents an important opening to keeping both Afghanistan and Turkic Central Asia open to the world, not divvied up between Persia, Russia, and China.
Democracy and free trade for Central Asia, sez me! Hmmm, sounds like the Bush Doctrine, and I like it.
Sep 16, 2008 - 1:34 pm 85. Aether:Old Blue:
“Don’t forget; the Taliban never controlled the whole country. The HiG and the Taliban occasionally hold hands now, but Gulbudin gave them fits when they were the defacto government. The HiG weren’t the only group out there who controlled some territory and needed money.”
Old Blue, I’ve reviewed your Blog and understand your perspective.
I’m familiar with the tribal nature of Afghanistan… long story short, I once had a neighbor, Haji, that was a Tajiki emigrant from Afghanistan, a supporter of the “Lion of Panjshir”. He was VERY happy to be living in America, and to have earned a college degree.
One day, sometime in the year prior to 9/11, we were conversing about Al-Qaeda and the US Cole, he showed me several bullet wounds he had received while fighting the Taliban. Explained to me how they had overrun most of Afghanistan, and then told me that he had heard comments (I suppose at the local mosque?) that Al Qaeda was planning “some big operation against America”.
In my hubris, I scoffed at his statement, thinking “never in America”. I moved into another state shortly after that conversation.
Of course on 9/11/2001, I finally understood what Haji had meant by that comment. I will never again underestimate the desire of the Islamo-fascists to subjugate and/or inflict destruction on the Kafir.
Sep 16, 2008 - 1:37 pm 86. Old Blue:Many Pashtuns really want a separate “Pashtunistan.” I once had an interpreter explain to me with light flashing in his eyes how, once Afghanistan has healed and has built a mighty army, it will attack Pakistan and free the Pashtun areas and form a separate Pashtunistan.
The word is not unheard of in Afghanistan.
Transportation was mentioned above more than once. Rail is the best in the mountains. The Chinese railway that will support the copper mines in Logar will undoubtedly transport more than copper.
Who is going to make the McDonald’s toys for the Chinese Happy Meals? Who knows… it may be Afghans.
Even though it sucks that the Chinese won the bid to develop the copper field of Logar, I was happy for the Afghans. 7,000 jobs in the field itself, more building and running the railway, and countless more selling products to the mine workers and railway employees. It’s an economic boon of tremendous proportions; and it’s only one project.
Afghanistan is flush with mineral wealth, and when it comes to helping the Afghans make something of their own country, leave it to the Chinese. What in the hell is wrong with us?
Answer: the same thing that is right with us; our government doesn’t control industry.
Yet that is part of the answer to the very question of the Taliban and their influence; jobs and development.
Oh, BTW… Pashtuns make up a significant portion of the Afghan Army, too… I’ve seen the ANA be absolutely ruthless in prosecuting Taliban contact. Stop making assumptions about Taliban in the Pakistani military without any evidence. There is undoubtedly some affiliation between the ISI and the Taliban and AQ, but until there is evidence, stating it like it is fact when it is only conjecture muddies the waters.
If you have a credible reference, then cite it. Otherwise, all of the conjecture is overwhelming and counterproductive. I heard tons of stories from armchair generals about the ANA being infiltrated when I was on my way into the country. I’m sure that there were moles here and there. I never saw any sabotage of the ANA or missions due to it. Some of the most savage anti-Taliban fighters I saw were Pashtuns.
Sep 16, 2008 - 1:41 pm 87. Konyok:Old Blue,
Thank you for your service.
It happens that I do know a little about oil and gas in IRoA. There are modest but proven reserves in the North – contiguous and related to producing areas in Turkmenistan and Tajikistan.
The south (Helmand and Katawaz)is completely unknown. Because of the complicated tectonic history of the region (India colliding with Asia, etc. …) there is real good reason to believe that there are a lot of very small gas deposits – not large enough for large commercial exploitation, but shallow enough to allow for mini gas powered generator stations to electrify the villages.
The real bottle neck is human capital. There is a missing generation in nearly every field, except light infantry and muslim clericism, in Afghanistan. Afghanistan’s petroleum geologists were trained in the USSR and satellites in the 1970’s and had to keep their heads down through the civil war and the Taliban time. During that time the entire field changed at warp speed. They are gamely trying to learn computers and adjust to an English speaking world. The US is training them to develop the expertise to manage and regulate oil and gas leasing.
Interestingly, the only country to cooperate in this effort and allow the Afghans visas and hands-on experience with modern drilling rigs is little Georgia …
(Just another reason to drink more Georgian wine.)
Sep 16, 2008 - 1:53 pm 88. Fletcher Christian:“Aether:
Buck Smith:
“The question is does prohibition prevent addicts. Do you know anyone who is stopped from abusing heroin because it is not sold in drug stores, but rather by a network of pushers? Do we have more alcoholics now than during prohibition?”
I get your point that the “War on Drugs” is a sham, a bad joke ,a waste of taxpayers money, a waste of effort, and a violation of Americans constitutional rights.
The failure of the Drug War shows us that the profit motive of the suppliers will almost always undercut any interdiction efforts, and guarantees the supply side, and the addiction of the users guarantee’s the demand side of the equation.
That said, I’ve known a lot of addicts in my time, and I therefore know that the effects of certain drugs are far worse than others. Experience tells me that legalizing Heroin in particular is a BAD idea.”
Excuse my crudity, but every line of that is bullshit. Why? Simple. You may or may not be aware that in the UK heroin addiction does not make you a criminal, as long as you are registered, and that under certain circumstances one can get completely legitimate supplies of that drug.
I am told that in Edinburgh, for some reason, there are a lot of registered heroin addicts, being supplied with controlled doses of heroin from registered pharmacies. Almost none of them have any health problems at all. Why? Because opiates are almost entirely harmless. Just about all the damage they do is from the things surrounding illegal opiate use; dirty needles, impure drugs cut with God only knows what, etc. And of course, if cannabis is also illegal dealers have an incentive to push addictive drugs to existing customers for non-addictive ones such as cannabis.
My solution is simple. Legalise the lot, at least for sale to adults. This cuts off pushers at the knees and eliminates the problem of impure drugs at a stroke. Why won’t this be tried? Because too many people’s jobs depend on the WAR ON DRUGS. And also because the alcohol and tobacco industries would suffer.
The only exception to this policy is sale of addictive drugs to minors. Anyone who does that ought to be shot on sight. Including cigarette dealers selling to minors, of which there are many.
And if I’m slightly wrong and using opiates kills you? Tough. Darwin always wins. Disinfect the gene pool!
Sep 16, 2008 - 2:03 pm 89. cjm:we don’t have to invade the place to partition it. just atomize the army and isi units whenever they pop up. let the new owners deal with the internal situation. “failed state to highest bidder, as is condition”
Sep 16, 2008 - 2:04 pm 90. Old Blue:Konyok; Helping Afghans develop their natural resources would be the easiest way to modernize the country and help them to provide for themselves. I’ve heard accounts of more significant natural gas than what you present, but be that as it may, there are significant energy reserves as well as mineral wealth.
You are absolutely correct about the Afghans missing a generation of nearly every skill other than those you noted. I’ve tried to explain it as if someone killed every single person who worked for your state’s highway department and then abolished the department for fifteen years and let the roads go to hell… then hired people to run the highway department. The whole place is like that.
That’s what the mentorship is for. Someone above denigrated NGO’s, but often the NGO’s are teaching the skills that make a real difference in people’s lives.
All the wells in the provinces were drilled by NGO’s. NGO’s make a big difference. We thought the UN folks were a pain, but the NGO’s were often the only ones helping to provide an improvement in life as the balance swung back and forth in a local community.
Sometimes the scale swung with the rising and setting of the sun.
Drink Georgian wine. For every Afghan oil or gas well, there is a stake in the heart of the Taliban. For every small industry that trains a new employee, there is a thorn in the side of the Taliban. You cannot crush the Taliban to death in one fell swoop, but you can kill it with a thousand cuts. It is long, slow, by-increments work that Americans do not stomach well.
We are the big fat kid with ADD. We have really heavy hands, are easily winded, and we have a short attention span. We also expect our fists to solve all of our problems, even when holding a pen or a slide rule would be more effective.
Sep 16, 2008 - 2:15 pm 91. Aether:Old Blue,
“Stop making assumptions about Taliban in the Pakistani military without any evidence. There is undoubtedly some affiliation between the ISI and the Taliban and AQ, but until there is evidence, stating it like it is fact when it is only conjecture muddies the waters.”
Point taken, although I believe that I have citable references, possibly bookmarked on another host… note that, comments with http links to tend to get filtered.
Sep 16, 2008 - 2:28 pm 92. Konyok:Old Blue,
The one thing that I fault Dubya for is not communicating to Americans the scope of what is to be done.
Example: another problem Afghanistan faces is food shortages. The orchards were chopped down, blown up and mined. This last winter was brutal and killed an enormous percentage of the livestock. I know that a lot of rural Americans would be delighted to help the Afghans, but don’t know how. There is an large reservoir of American know-how and good will that either the govt or NGO’s could tap and mobilize.
We really need to think about COIN as a practical, patient repair job than a grand strategic coup de force.
Another problem is the “man on the moon” syndrome. If America could put a man on the moon, why can’t she ____________ ? Expectations are unrealistic all the way around.
Sep 16, 2008 - 2:41 pm 93. fedya:@Cannoneer No. 4:
The Indians would bitch.
Actually, no they wouldn’t (and thanks for the excellent pointer!). The recently opened road India built goes from the “ring around Afghanistan” roads to the Iranian border near Zaranj. From there, it isn’t far to good Iranian-Baluchistani roads South to the sea.
But heading South-East in Afghanistan over flat lands from Zaranj to Khwaja Ali Sufla on Helmand’s River seems like the next logical step for India’s engineers to take, thereby vastly improving connections to Helmand from the sea.
So, our proposed new route zig-zagging up from from the Arabian Sea at Gwadar, past the pass at Batak-Mazil, and meets the extended Indian road at Khwaja Ali Sufla.
So, from Khwaja Ali Sufla the Indian road has level connections via Zaranj to Iran and to the North to Delaram and Herat in the Afghani NorthEast. Eastward, our new route connects with Helmand and Eastern
Afghanistan up to the Logar copper mines near Kabul.
Hmmm. From the copper mines to the sea, but without the dangerous Khyber Pass. Wonder if the Chinese figured that out? Or do they intend to truck it North to the Silk Road via Samarkhand and Tashkent?
Sep 16, 2008 - 2:50 pm 94. fedya:BTW, if Google Earth is to be believed, India isn’t the only country disputing borders with China. Pakistani controlled Kashmir is bright red along China. So, too, is China’s border with Tajikistan.
Interesting, though, Afghanistan’s borders, even the tiny stretch shared with China, are undisputed.
Hmmm, “Afghanistan, an Oasis of stability in Central Asia”?
Sep 16, 2008 - 2:59 pm 95. Aether:Fletcher Christian:
“Excuse my crudity, but every line of that is bullshit.”
–snip——
“What is Heroin?
Heroin is a highly addictive drug derived from morphine, which is obtained from the opium poppy. It is a “downer” or depressant that affects the brain’s pleasure systems and interferes with the brain’s ability to perceive pain.”
“Long-term effects of heroin appear after repeated use for some period of time.Chronic users may develop collapsed veins, infection of the heart lining and valves, abscesses, cellulites, and liver disease. Pulmonary complications, including various types of pneumonia, may result from the poor health condition of the abuser, as well as from heroin’s depressing effects on respiration.”
—–
“And if I’m slightly wrong and using opiates kills you? Tough. Darwin always wins. Disinfect the gene pool!”
well now you’re quite the “Christian” aren’t you gov’na ?
Sep 16, 2008 - 3:11 pm 96. Konyok:Y’know …
The more I cogitate on this, the greater grows my cognitive dissonance.
Isn’t COIN actually just really comprehensive community organizing with some armed backup?
Why, oh why hasn’t Barack Obama been a vocal advocate for redevelopment and COIN in Afghanistan? He should have, could have been all over this the last couple of years and burnished his national security credentials in the process.
Hmm …
Sep 16, 2008 - 3:20 pm 97. Old Blue:I’m not sure, but I think that the Chinese will be looking to take the railway to their border; up north and through Badakhshan. It’s not the easiest route, but it keeps it in the family, so to speak.
Sep 16, 2008 - 3:26 pm 98. mark_b:Aether:
My calculations come to 53M gallons oil or 1,280,000 bbl oil, using a factor of 1165liter/HA of oil from opium popply.
More benefits, oil must be pressed from the seed. This is labor intensive. Some kid is going to make some money. And not just sit around the madrassa all day getting into trouble. Each town could have a press and a generator for lights. Maybe even a greenhouse to grow winter veggies, using heat fron the generator. This stuff will fire the Petromax lantern that the Afghans are so famous for.
(I bought 3 things for Y2K 2 40G drums for rice. 5 40G drums for water, a Petromax to cook it.
The reason that they grow poppies is that there isn’t enough water to grow anything else. The numbers that wretch posts are also illegally grown poppies. Surely there are some law abiding Afghans.
Sep 16, 2008 - 3:30 pm 99. trish:The Taliban has not divorced itself from the opium poppy; they are not clean. The people know it. Is this a problem for public relations? Sure. Do the Talibs care? Not so much. They will, if they succeed in overthrowing the IRoA, ban opium once again. In the meantime, they have the loyalty of those who grow it, move it, and protect it. It is a marriage of convenience, but they do not try very hard to deny the fact of their involvement. They simply point to a fatwa saying that it’s okay as long as the money goes to fight infidel occupiers, and that’s good enough for most.
I was there last year when the Presidential Decree was delivered to the provincial governors and they pushed it down to the district subgovernors; if you grow poppy, we will throw you in jail and confiscate your land.
The problem? Enforcement. What’s the problem with enforcement? Probably corruption in the judicial system.
Bribes.
When you figure out how much money the Taliban has available, figure in a cut for the local government officials, be they police or judicial or executive. Trust me, it’s there.
I’ve never seen more entrepreneurial people than Afghans. Money talks, goat sh1t walks. We were prevented from entering the Tag Ab Valley (by Presidential Decree) until the opium harvest was over. Why? I don’t know.
– Old Blue
The Taliban are not the primary movers nor beneficiaries in the opium trade of Afghanistan. And this does alter the equation.
Eradication programs can be recommended in their own right, as a licit economy is generally preferable to its opposite, but there must be adequate, ongoing compensation/substitution schemes. And that’s where development (a better term in most cases than “reconstruction”) is critical. Infrastructure, infrastructure, infrastructure. Especially roads. This will also do more over time to create a sense of nation than perhaps anything else. And any development of natural resources would be a godsend for Afghanistan. These of course require security; but experience has shown that development projects are the greatest enhancements of same.
Agree completely in re Pakistan. Two words: Google Earth. Hell, just take that tiny part of it (Waziristan) that is the obsession du jour. Take a good look. Then consider that the PakMil got their asses kicked when they were actually trying. Doesn’t mean nothing’s being done there – far, far from it – but that it is NOT the place for “troops”, and that the main effort is properly in Afghanistan.
I enjoy your posts and appreciate your confidence and reason. Especially your observations in re the Afghans: Money talks, goat shit walks. Yessir indeed.
When Afghanis can look forward to the future, wherever they can look forward to the future, everything will have changed.
Sep 16, 2008 - 3:31 pm 100. Old Blue:Konyok: LOL. That’s pretty good.
I thoroughly agree that Dubya, the Armed Forces, and the government in general have done a terrible job of presenting the current war. There is no on-boarding process for the country to follow. By the end of WW-II, every Tom, Dick, and Joe Sixpack were amateur Island Hoppers. During Desert Storm, everyone was an AirLand Battle doctrine expert.
That’s easy. COIN is hard, and it takes patience, like you said. COIN is more like slow-motion jujitsu than boxing. Americans like boxing.
I stand by the point I made in my blog post that Cannoneer referenced above; when Americans don’t know enough of what’s going on in the crucial little valleys in Afghanistan, how are they to get on board? Issues are to be discussed, even if the participants can’t solve the problems or come up with amateurish solutions. At least they are talking about it and appreciating the difficulty of the task.
Joe Sixpack should have known who Qari Nejat was. Joe should have known what a coup it was to get him.
Joe should have known what getting him indicated; successful COIN.
Joe should have known that not from the punch that was delivered, but for the fact that we could see where to punch. Someone in that valley came around to our side. Someone there felt enough trust and enough allegiance to the IRoA to give that really bad guy up. That’s the coup that Joe would have understood, but Joe Sixpack was clueless.
Who do I fault? All of the above, plus the MSM. We live in a popcorn culture with a popcorn press. If it bleeds, it leads; and if it stinks, it’s ink. They only report on the sensational and the horrible. Especially if we’re at fault.
The truth is out there, though. A lot of it sounds mundane. New schools, kids getting inoculated, wells being drilled, roads being paved. Police being trained and seeing successes. The ANA becoming more self-sufficient. Corrupt governors being discovered and removed. Ex-foes joining the political process as wary participants. All of these things spell out the patterns that people need to see. There’s more, too. But it’s not about bleeding. 90% of good COIN operations aren’t kinetic… but when a guy like Qari Nejat gets popped and takes a dirt nap, our press should be on top of that. Why?
Because they should understand the picture in the country that they’re reporting on. Even the French seem to know that.
Sep 16, 2008 - 3:42 pm 101. Old Blue:Trish; Thanks you.
One scheme for replacing opium poppies is safron. It’s actually worth more by weight than opium. It’s actually worth more by weight than gold.
It’s a thought.
You are right about development vs security. In COIN, security may come from unexpected places. If you look at it as a function of what do the people themselves benefit from, then you may have a good start point. If those development projects that people see benefit from are attacked, the insurgent begins to separate himself from the people, which is exactly what you want for him to do. Most of them are smarter than that.
However, when the road crews began building the road from Tag Ab to meet the construction coming the other way from Mahmoud Raqi, the crews and equipment were attacked. I’m sure that there were plenty of local citizens who saw value in that road being paved. Sometimes the progress ticks off the Taliban/HiG enough to do silly stuff.
The military is expected to go in harm’s way, but there are civilian contractors out there doing it, too. When people slam KBR, it just doesn’t ring true to me. They are out there on the FOB’s, doing the work that frees up soldiers to do their jobs, and sometimes they get shot at, too. That’s just one example. There are others… and most of them get cursed by some Americans, too. DynCorp.
But what about commercial companies that would help to develop Afghanistan? What about some tax breaks for them? What about some kind of motivation for companies to put some skin in the game?
How ’bout patriotism? Other than, say, putting up a flag or making a red-white-and-blue commercial about themselves, that is.
I’m not seeing it. If the government isn’t paying for it, nobody’s biting. The companies that do bite on the government contracts get a hearty round of boos.
It’s left to NGO’s. I’ve get to see a mining NGO, or a light manufacturing NGO.
Maybe we should do what American companies are best at these days. We should outsource it to the Chinese. If we really wanted to piss off the Pakistanis, we could outsource it to India, like the helpdesk for my laptop.
Sep 16, 2008 - 4:03 pm 102. Old Blue:mark_b; Check yourself on that water thing. Are you really sure? Don’t make me show you pictures. Granted, I was not down in Helmand, but I’m here to tell you that I saw Afghans growing rice in some areas that you wouldn’t expect it. So, if you want to stand on your water comment, then you can… but are you sure that’s why they grow opium?
Afghan farmers are the masters of water on the local level. My SECFOR guys swore that Afghan farmers could make water run uphill. It is Afghanistan as a nation that doesn’t have a water plan. Don’t assume that the locals can’t grow stuff. Lots of corn is grown. Afghans love corn.
It’s still nowhere near as pricey as opium.
I was surprised at the amount of water in Afghanistan.
Sep 16, 2008 - 4:11 pm 103. RAH:I am glad to hear that Kharzai’s writ is larger than the capital. But that country is not civilized. Lots of little towns that have no support from the government. That allows the strong leader and that could be Taliban to control areas, since they have the will to enforce their decrees.
The Taliban war against teachers has been brutal and there is no security. This is a large country. Unless the loocals want to rise up and create social units and defend their towns and farms from the brigands(Taliban).
We do not have the resources to set up shop in all the towns. We need to persuade the tribal chiefs to defend and prevent the Taliban from getting a foothold.
Most of the locals just want to survive and not fight the Taliban for us. They have to do it for themselves and I do not think that they are convinced that it is worth it.
Sep 16, 2008 - 4:33 pm 104. trish:“The military is expected to go in harm’s way, but there are civilian contractors out there doing it, too. When people slam KBR, it just doesn’t ring true to me. They are out there on the FOB’s, doing the work that frees up soldiers to do their jobs, and sometimes they get shot at, too. That’s just one example. There are others… and most of them get cursed by some Americans, too. DynCorp.”
Though not a contractor myself, I’m pretty well versed by now in the anti-contractor sentiment. I agree with you wholeheartedly.
Sadly, our forte is not foreign commercial development in the realm of nation building/influencing. The Chinese of course excel at it and the French are old pros. We…suck. And isn’t that something of a paradox?
How to spur commercial development in Afghanistan, and in what stages? This doesn’t have to be, probably shouldn’t be, our baby, but rather Kabul’s. Following a different and region-focused investment model in which we can provide guidance. I’ll ask my in-home “expert.” Jack of all trades, master of some. He’s the one who did South Asia. South America’s nice (Colombia is its no-shit, back-from-the-brink miracle and there are plenty of lessons to be transferred) but I’m sure he’ll be back in the future.
How about you?
Sep 16, 2008 - 5:14 pm 105. Konyok:mark_b,
Poppies are pretty water intensive. Their attraction is that opium is a universally desired and easily transported commodity. Always has been in Central Asia.
I guess that you could press some oil out of those little tiny seeds, but it doesn’t really seem worth the effort, unless, of course, you could get a nice opium harvest first.
If oil was the object, then sunflowers or something like that would be the ticket.
Saffron is a great idea. Very labor intensive, but a dandy source of export income.
Still, I can help wondering if there isn’t something nice overlooked in the raw opium. Shucks, now we now that dark chocolate contains strong antioxidants. I’d bet money that the poppy still has secrets to be revealed.
Sep 16, 2008 - 5:19 pm 106. Aether:Wouldn’t it grand to learn that the poppy contains a cure for cancer?
Research from Dr Phillip Larkin, March 2007…
“Poppy seed yields are already impressive, being about 1.8 tonnes/ha seed (cf. 2.4 for canola). The oil content is exceptional at 45-50% oil content per unit seed weight (cf. 40% in canola). Poppy yields about 0.8 tonnes oil per ha. The area sown to illegal poppy in Afghanistan in 2004 was 131,000 ha.
Sep 16, 2008 - 6:43 pm 107. Konyok:This is less than 2% of the arable land and therefore could be greatly expanded when the crop becomes legalized. Even the 2004 crop would have produced 100,000 tonnes of oil, equivalent to 2.5% of current world biodiesel consumption.”
So, when it comes to oil content, size really doesn’t matter much …
Sep 16, 2008 - 7:34 pm 108. Aether:Old Blue:
“But what about commercial companies that would help to develop Afghanistan? …
How ’bout patriotism? …
I’m not seeing it. If the government isn’t paying for it, nobody’s biting. The companies that do bite on the government contracts get a hearty round of boos.
It’s left to NGO’s. I’ve get to see a mining NGO, or a light manufacturing NGO.”
OK, I’ll bite.
say for instance, I have a goal to provide BioDiesel Reactors to the Afghani’s, One Valley at a Time, because I believe it would help the COIN in co-opt the locals to their efforts, and because I’m a capitalist who wants to make a couple of bucks.
Any idea’s how should I approach that goal ?
Sep 16, 2008 - 7:45 pm 109. Lifeofthemind:This must be preserved as a classic Club meeting. If giving a provocative post for people to react against helped to stimulate the discussion then I feel better. Compare this to the cartoonish level of the discussion that passes for punditry before the public. The level of public explanation of serious issues that determine policy has never been lower. The level of official effort to explain the strategic situation and our options has never been less. What little is offered by those in authority is actively blocked by a media that relishes its role as an active partisan. Vietnam was a model of national clarity by comparison.
Sep 16, 2008 - 7:53 pm 110. Old Blue:Trish: I’m considering it already. The 33rd IBCT is scheduled to activate soon. Sometimes I think about volunteering to go with them. I could probably wind up back in “my” valley. I just saw that a Navy Corpsman (attached to a Marine ETT team) was killed by an IED in Afghania Valley today (yesterday now?) Probably the same bomb-maker that blew four of my ANP to pieces last September 10th in the same sub-valley. It was the worst day I had all year and one of the worst in my life. There’s still lots and lots of work to do.
Aether: The poppy seeds from this year’s crop are used to grow more poppies next year. The Afghans are not interested in biodiesel when there is opium involved. They do grow sunflowers from time to time.
The Afghans have a way to go before being concerned with things like biodiesel. Developing a cottage oil industry and refining capability would go a long way towards giving their economy a boost and a lot of people work.
RAH: Most people on the scale just want to be left alone to raise their families and will tolerate a certain amount of crap to do that. In other words, if they are not targeted, they don’t really care who is in power. Be careful when you make blanket statements about not being civilized. Afghans may not be technologically advanced, but they are not completely uncivilized. Their culture is different from ours, but they do value civilized behavior, and in many ways put Americans to shame with their sheer hospitality. While I do not agree with all of their values, they do enforce the rules of their civilization within their communities, something that we have ceased to do here at home, even in our schools. Afghan children are very well-behaved in school.
The social network in Afghanistan in many cases holds individuals responsible for their behavior. Our social fabric here in the States preaches the acceptability of aberration, bordering on the dominance of aberration.
I’m not sure that our civilization could long survive under the conditions that Afghans live under every day. I had a vague sense of “Mad Max” while I was in Afghanistan, but that was due to the presence of machinery and modern transportation in a feudal-appearing society, not the madness of a post-apocalyptic western society whose infrastructure has been destroyed. Our self-centered society would implode under the conditions that Afghans simply live under.
I’m not saying that Afghans are superior; I am saying that they do, in fact, have a civilization; and it is robust. More, I fear, than ours.
Be that as it may, there are many who are very happy that the Taliban is not in power. I was thanked by many citizens for sacrificing my time with my family (that most powerful of Afghan values) and coming to their country to help them. The first thing that is needed for the former serfs to become more Taliban-resistant is a feeling of security. You are right; we cannot maintain a presence in every village.
But they can. It’s called the ANP.
We will have won when the guy with the gun/authority in each village is an ANP, and life under the ANP (IRoA) is significantly better than life under the Taliban. Reaching this simple end state is a very complex problem.
I’ve seen it work; where the district Police Chief participated with the village elders. The buy-in was terrific, and there was no Taliban presence. That was in the northern part of Kapisa (Koh Band District.) Contrast that with the south of the same province.
There are degrees of involvement. If the citizens trust enough to share information, that is often sufficient.
Sep 16, 2008 - 8:12 pm 111. Old Blue:Aether: Since you put it that way, I’d say that working with the State Department may be helpful. I’m sure that they would be able to connect you through the Afghan government to help promote whatever business proposition makes sense.
Sep 16, 2008 - 8:24 pm 112. Bob Murphy:Great thread, y’all and especially Old Blue, Cannoneer #4 and RAH.
Sep 16, 2008 - 9:12 pm 113. Dave:I learned heaps.
There is intelligent life on earth.
Thanks.
About that oil bit fellers: I have a sneaking suspicion that the yield estimates just may be way to conservative.
The latest trick I have heard of/read about involves salting the inbound with bacteria. These both help convert the raw material and become raw material themselves. Yield goes way up. Plus you get to use the whole darned plant for your “mash”, not just the seeds, or buds or whatever.
And the whole darned operation can be, and I think should be, run using labor intensive methods and equipment.
Like it says in the Bible: “Idle hands are the Taliban’s workshop.” (Ahem)
Point is that those who grow and harvest the opium crop are productive people producing what they know how. They should not be penalized on behalf of chemically dependent types everywhere. Final answer.
Sep 16, 2008 - 10:00 pm 114. fedya:OT: Stalin’s Ghost
For the first time the people of gori are questioning the role of their native son, but…
http://www.rferl.org/section/Multimedia/404.html
Radio Free Europe has posted an astonishing (to me) video documenting the grief of people of Gori (freshly absent Russkie soldiers) over the Russian betrayal and their local hero, “Uncle Joe” Stalin.
Scenes with the caretakers of the Stalin Museum, who refused to open it to Russian soldiers, are especially peculiar to my American sensibilities. I remember listening to old commies here in the States back in the ’60’s protesting that “Uncle Joe” was saintly but betrayed by venal underlings. Well…
Sep 16, 2008 - 11:00 pm 115. Fletcher Christian:Aether; you are quite correct in that all the symptoms you describe are suffered by chronic heroin abusers. The question at issue is why they occur, and where the data comes from. All those symptoms are connected with infection, and in today’s society just about all long-term abusers are using illegal supplies of dubious purity, and many of them share needles – which is just about the best way of transmitting infections ever invented.
I stand by my Darwinian comment. And I will go further. Sure, if heroin in particular is made legal then for a short time quite a few people will die. However, those same people would almost certainly have died not too much later anyway – and if there aren’t any pushers selling astronomically expensive drugs, then there will be many less burglaries and muggings for money to buy drugs – and less accidental shootings of innocent civilians caught in the crossfire between drug dealers. Probably less non-drug-related crime as well, since the police would then have the time to deal with other crimes. I submit that the effect on society and on the welfare (on average) of its members of drug legalisation would be positive.
But what the heck; it won’t happen – too many bureaucrats’ jobs depend on the “war on drugs”. Drug laws, like anti-terrorist laws, give an excuse for surveillance of the population as well.
Bottom line; anyone in today’s society knows what lies at the end of starting to use addictive drugs, and some do it anyway. If someone wants to commit slow (or quick) suicide, he or she should be allowed to do it while minimising the effect on others. And if, despite all the publicity, someone doesn’t know what drugs do to you – then he is too stupid to live.
Sep 17, 2008 - 12:04 am 116. Cannoneer No. 4:Life and Bob Murphy:
The Media’s Trillion-Dollar Question by Austin Bay.
Individual digital connectivity has tapped what I call the “distributed genius” of human beings, in a way print rarely did (a letter to the editor won’t appear for days) and electronic media — such as radio with talk shows taking phone calls — only began to explore.
In the early 1990s, I used “distributed genius” to describe an email “listserve” group I joined that included a number of military reservists, a retired Marine, a military historian and at least two men on active duty. The members lived around the globe. Ask for advice on a military issue and — presto — feedback from an articulate pro who had been there and done it.
The Belmont Club has been tapping the “distributed genius” of human beings for five years, maybe longer.
Sep 17, 2008 - 12:09 am 117. Cannoneer No. 4:Tribesmen warn of stopping food supply to NATO forces
PESHAWAR: Strongly condemning the incursion of NATO forces and its air strikes on the tribal belt, the elders of Kokekhel tribe, Khyber Agency have warned that if the NATO forces does not stop attacking the areas, the tribesmen would stop the supply edibles and other items while block the roads leading towards Afghanistan.
Sep 17, 2008 - 1:26 am 118. Cannoneer No. 4:One of the few agreed upon generalizations concerning counter-insurgency fighting is that it is impossible to win so long as the insurgents have a sanctuary where they can train and rest, regroup and plan.
It is almost universally agreed that there can be no success in Afghanistan without also doing something about the sanctuary provided by Pakistan.
Over the years, joint operations between NATO special operations forces and the Pakistanis have been directed chiefly at al-Qaeda, not the Taliban.
Recently an increase in U.S. air strikes into Pakistan has targeted the Taliban.
This poses a real problem because, on the one hand Pakistan — or rather, some factions in the Pakistani army and especially in the government — are happy to have NATO deal with the jihadi militants all on their own.
On the other, unilateral military operations by NATO adds to Pakistan’s political instability because of growing anger at these American-led attacks.
To make matters worse for Pakistan, Indian army engineers have just finished building a road linking southwestern Afghanistan to the Iranian port of Chahbahar on the Arabian Sea.
The completion of the road by arch-rival India means that Pakistani influence in Afghanistan has been further reduced because it opens up an alternative route to bring goods and equipment into the county other than by going through the storied Khyber Pass.
The announcement that the United States was prepared to act in Pakistan with or without Pakistani permission brought a strong response from the head of the military, Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani.
He warned that Pakistani forces would fight to defend their sovereignty against any foreigners.
Whether they do so or not, the crisis between Pakistan and NATO has been enlarged and intensified.
Moreover, the reason is easy to see: the Taliban has made a resurgence in Afghanistan and base camps in Pakistan are central to their success.
NATO troops would obviously welcome the end of supplies flowing from Pakistan to the Taliban. Due to the political sympathy for the Taliban among Pakistanis, however, that country has been unable to act against them on its own.
So the Americans have said: if you won’t do the job, we will.
Unlike joint operations against al-Qaeda, dealing with the Taliban bases requires a lot more that special forces and a few unmanned aerial vehicles.
The change in relations between Pakistan and NATO means that a crisis is coming to a head.
The NATO options are either to widen the war against the Taliban by attacking in Pakistan in accord with standard counter-insurgency military practice or abandon Afghanistan altogether. — Barry Cooper, PhD, professor of political science at the University of Calgary.
Sep 17, 2008 - 1:44 am 119. Cannoneer No. 4:Ramadan is the perfect time for cross-border ops into Pakistan. The rent-a-mobs are too tired and hungry for photogenic rioting, and the HVT’s congregate at chow time to pig out and party. Right when it gets dark and all the guards are focused on supper is perfect for a snatch.
Sep 17, 2008 - 2:14 am 120. Cannoneer No. 4:Last night, cricketer-turned-politician Imran Khan, leader of Pakistan’s Tehrik-i-Insaaf (Justice) party, joined the criticism of the US-led raids, telling reporters it was time to stop “logistic support for the US and allied forces in Afghanistan”.
“The best way to compel the allied forces to halt the border violations in the so-called hot pursuit of al-Qa’ida and the Taliban is to stop logistic support,” said Mr Khan, referring to NATO’s use of Karachi as a supply route for military supplies into Afghanistan.
Sep 17, 2008 - 2:33 am 121. Cannoneer No. 4:Players You Don’t Hear About
The Taliban — more smoke than fire
The drug gangs — the most formidable force in the country
The warlords — The Taliban is not the only private army in the country
The national government — out to make as much money as they can
Al Qaeda — homicidal and suicidal religious fanatics have power far larger than their small numbers would indicate
Pakistan — Most of the 40 million Pushtun tribal peoples live on the Pakistani side of the border. Pakistani government officials are always coming up with new schemes to keep the tribes busy with each other, and not planning mischief against the lowlanders (the majority of Pakistan’s population).
The foreign forces — There to prevent the country from turning into a criminal/terrorist hideout again
Sep 17, 2008 - 3:53 am 122. Cannoneer No. 4:Helping The Unhelpful
Since the peacekeepers are the only source of order, and essential supplies, they are often disliked. That sounds strange, but the peacekeepers are foreigners, and the locals tend to expect miracles. When the miracles don’t happen, anger follows. If you didn’t have irrational attitudes like that, the area would not have developed the instability that brought in the peacekeepers in the first place.
Sep 17, 2008 - 4:04 am 123. Cannoneer No. 4:Taking Cash To The Arms Market
In Pakistan, the government has provided tribal paramilitary troops with over a million dollars in cash to buy weapons and ammunition in local arms markets.
Sep 17, 2008 - 4:16 am 124. Wadeusaf:“What does America have the will to do about Pakistan? There are many things that we cannot afford to let happen that we will let happen because half of us don’t trust the other half.”
What does Pakistan have the will to do about Pakistan? I think is the more compelling question. We will support if they have the will. I think the new government is showing signs of moving in their own best interests, and that is a good thing.
“The best way to compel the allied forces to halt the border violations in the so-called hot pursuit of al-Qa’ida and the Taliban is to stop logistic support,” said Mr Khan”
Mr. Khan has a point. If all that were involved was US led raids of terrorist sanctuaries in the NW Frontier then I am certain Islamabad would be happy, more than happy to comply. But it is not. Al Quada is not popular with the majority of Pakistanis, The Taliban are marginally more acceptable only because the Pakistanis supported them in Afghanistan at one time (sort of like hammas v PLO), and despite the large numbers in population, the hard line conservative tribal elders are not especially fancied by the Pashtuns themselves.
But I would dare say the population has much in common with the notions of the folks who were involved in the whiskey rebellion. The culture is different, but it reflects an adaptation to a particularly rough climate and rougher geography. They did not choose to move there.
The World cannot afford to allow the institutions that be to allow more terrorist training to continue. There is not an option but to settle the matter. So the questions is do we settle it in a way that makes more of the residents friendly toward us, or in a way that continues the climate created by Balfore?
There are a lot of very large questions that need to be answered, and while they cannot be answered by guns alone, security is I thing one of the first and certainly the most important part of resolving the matter. Have the kinds of options discussed above is just as necessary.
Thanks for another very lively and informative thread. The best ones I think are the ones where I am caught up reading and not tempted to respond.
Sep 17, 2008 - 4:49 am 125. trish:Old Blue,
You certainly sound like you “belong” there, should you decide to return. Though I’m terribly sorry for the tragedy you experienced.
These comments are all a pointed reminder that there is no substitute for first-hand experience and observations – yours echo everything I have heard in countless conversations with my husband and others, who would go back in a heartbeat. Optimism in these circumstances usually requires some intimate knowledge of the situation as well as slow, stubborn persistence; a pretty high tolerance for everyday frustration; and the simple ability to discern opportunities where others only see obstacles. All of these I associate with the best people I know in and associated with the military.
Afghanistan is a decades-long “project” that will change form many times. I used to not want to hear this, but since coming to Colombia last winter, I have a much better appreciation for the long-haul effort, as well as deep sympathy and respect for those whose home it actually is. Wherever it is.
And ditto on the State Department. They should be your first contact for in-country commercial enterprise.
Sep 17, 2008 - 5:35 am 126. Wolf Pangloss:Poppies are actually an ideal crop for ethanol conversion. They have more oil than any other crop than oil palm, and grow like a weed in the Himalayan region.
Sep 17, 2008 - 8:04 am 127. Cannoneer No. 4:Pakistan: Allied Tensions
Sep 17, 2008 - 11:45 am 128. Richard:I read an article in which a list of plants that could be used to create ethanol. In the top third of the list was the opium plant. Suggest we buy this crop from the local Afghan farmer at 4-5 times the current price the Taliban pay, build local ethanol plants for use by the citizens for their cars and trucks. Thereby eliminating the world of the opium problem. One can dream of a peaceful solution!!!
Sep 17, 2008 - 4:07 pm 129. Christopher:Sooner or later, the Americans are going to have to swollow their stubborn pride and realize that in order to win the Afghanistan war they have to tackle the reality of the drug issue.
Take over the crops– divert them from going to illegal drug markets into the legal pharmaceutical markets (morphine, etc). Take away their money, give the farmers a better buyer.
The one problem I’ve always encountered with the Bush admin’s strategy is this ignorance of all other forms of the conflict. They can win militarily, but they are slow at figuring out how to win socially, economically and politically.
Sep 18, 2008 - 12:39 pm 130. Fletcher Christian:Thanks for your comment about “distributed genius”, Cannoneer. Am I included?
Seriously, one problem that affects just about all decision-making processes is the wearing of blinkers, to use an analogy. Often, not enough things that have an influence are taken into account. Examples are the effect of energy policy on the “War on Terror”, the effect of drug legislation on same, and the effect of drug enforcement law on homicide rates. All these all-too-often ignored connections have something in common, and that something is that if the “energy source” for anything is cut off then that something largely stops. Examples of policies that would cut those connections; research into energy independence, and drug legalisation. If something is worth less, then the control of that something implies less power.
Sep 18, 2008 - 4:19 pm 131. Ravalli County News » Blog Archive » Richard Fernandez on Afghanistan and Pakistan:[...] “For the moment both Afghanistan and Pakistan will be dominated by factions and gangs. About a… [...]
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