68 Comments

1. Elroy Jetson:

Keep feeding the crockodile so it will eat you last, Zardari.
Yeah, that’ll work.
We are in deep trouble in that part of the world. We did our best to avoid it by propping up Musharraf. I don’t envy Obama or McCain if either win. No time for celebration, I predict.

Sep 21, 2008 - 12:49 am 2. cjm:

given that the army is reported to be about 1/3 islamicist, what difference would it make if they were to assume power? weren’t the army nominally in charge when mushariif was prime minister?

no, pakistan is in a death spiral and nothing is going to change that. it is a waste of bandwidth to discuss possible/probable actions (or intentns) of the “government” there.

my bet is that a casus belli occurs — or is manufactured — bringing India in, with our assistance. there is very little chance that the paks still have their nukes.

Sep 21, 2008 - 1:20 am 3. Bob Murphy:

CJM-why do you say there is very little chance the paks still have their nukes?

Sep 21, 2008 - 3:31 am 4. Response39:

The Guardian inflates the reasons for attacking the Marriott – It’s not the debauchery that allegedly goes on there. It’s the primary hotel used by almost all American and European visitors to Islamabad. It is the most obvious symbol of western intrusion into Pakistan from the radicals’ point of view.

Even those who just travel there on regular business, mind their manners while in country, but represent a foreign power are targets of these radicals.

Sep 21, 2008 - 4:47 am 5. Starko:

The truth is that what the Pakistani government calls “violating sovereignty” is really just violating a border. It is clearly not in control of the tribal regions, which by definition means it is not sovereign there.

This puts the US in a pickle, especially if a 9/11-scale attack happens that was based from those tribal regions. Despite the lack of sovereignty, these areas play a part in domestic politics. This means if the US conducted a full-scale invasion, it would be trusting in the Pakistani army to quell any Islamic revolution that followed (among many other things).

Sep 21, 2008 - 4:54 am 6. Bill R:

But how long the wolves can be kept from ripping at Pakistan’s vitals by showering them with snacks is an interesting question. The problem well-stated. Thank you Wretchard.

Sep 21, 2008 - 5:05 am 7. davod:

“The truth is that what the Pakistani government calls “violating sovereignty” is really just violating a border. It is clearly not in control of the tribal regions, which by definition means it is not sovereign there.”

???? If you cross the border you are violating sovereignty.

The problem is not that we are doing it. The Pakistanis had to respond to the media reports (no doubt leaked by some snivelling guttersnipe), that Bush had approved the border crossings.

Sep 21, 2008 - 5:08 am 8. Holdfast:

If you can’t control your own border, you are by definition ceding your own sovereignty. A sovereign state can exercise effective control over its own borders, at least most of the time (see other examples of loss of sovereignty due to lack of control of border, including the US southwest).

Sep 21, 2008 - 5:23 am 9. Around the World…. » The Ethereal Voice:

[...] The huge truck bomb that went off in Islamabad. [...]

Sep 21, 2008 - 6:20 am 10. steveaz:

As long as the bombs are going off in Pakistan, then the Bush Doctrine is working.

In 2000, Islamic militants were focused on terrorizing Western citizens in Western nations. Now they’re forced to vent their wrath in their own nations and against their own people.

This is a big loss for extra-territorial Islamic movements who use the sword to expand Sharia. Bush has re-compressed the contagion and has confined it to its states of origin: it is localized now and (barring a flair-up in Europe) not systemic anynore.

Bush’s policy is bearing fruit.

Sep 21, 2008 - 6:35 am 11. Tony:

Here’s The Nation out of Abu Dhabi publishing the obvious:
“’The attack on the hotel is a message to the Pakistani leadership: End all cooperation with the Americans or pay the price,’ said Brian Glyn Williams, associate professor of Islamic history at the University of Massachusetts. ‘Both sides see Pakistan as a vital battlefield in their global struggle and clearly Pakistani civilians are paying the price for being in the middle of this struggle,’ he told the Associated Press.
http://www.thenational.ae/article/20080921/GLOBALBRIEFING/91392760/-1/SPORT

Is it just me, or is it laughably absurd to offer a “truce” to enemies like al Qaeda?

Obviously, the terrs are not going to let up, ever, so it’s only a matter of time for Pakistan’s latest dabbling in democracy to be subsumed under yet another military government (dictatorship). One is left with the question, why does the other, larger part of old India function as free society? Nah, that’s a stupid question.

Let’s see, history of countries surviving under Islamofascist rule under the Bush Doctrine….

Sep 21, 2008 - 6:58 am 12. E. Nigma:

Well Tony, that would be:

Saudi Arabia
Iran

Saudi Arabia is safe from without as long as the oil keeps flowing.
Iran is working on nukes to deter future interference.

And Indonesia is not far behind. That is a scary place for a non-Muslim.

Sep 21, 2008 - 7:26 am 13. trangbang68:

“Why do they hate themselves so?” Bingo! As long as the Wahaabis and Salafists preach the twisted theology of a demonic hate filled god who can never by sated by enough blood it’s on.Unfortunately the only remedy for these gentle souls is annihilation and the hope that their more skeptical brethren will one day wake up from the collective nightmare and flush their own Korans down the storm drain of history. We better elect someone who has the cojones for an alley fight. (Hint, he’s the short old guy not the tall drink of tepid water)
Michael Yon’s latest dispatches from Forward Operating Base Gibraltar in Helmland Province is a must read.

Sep 21, 2008 - 7:50 am 14. Tony:

E., these things take time. We’re moving slowly forward now, we were going backward in the 90’s.

Sep 21, 2008 - 7:52 am 15. cjm:

just a hunch (about the pak nukes being disabled). mushariff talked of being threatened with a u.s. nuclear attack if h didn’t co-operate with gwb right after 9/11. given what gwb has said about keeping iran from going nuclear, it isn’t much of a stretch to posit that pakistan was stripped of theirs. after the khan network was discovered and dismantled, i just don’t think we would let such an unstable place keep their weapons.

what are the chances of an islamicist riddled place keeping them out of the hands of al-queda or iran?

like i say, just a hunch.

Sep 21, 2008 - 8:33 am 16. hdgreene:

My guess is the Marriott is owned by Pakistanis and run under a franchise arrangement. I don’t see an American Corporation putting much at risk there — although I think they originally feared expropriation rather than explosive-ization.

I wonder how much this is seen as an attack by the Pashtun-Arab alliance on the rest of Pakistan by the other tribes. They seem to have a circle jerk political culture but one of the Jerks is now stabbing the others in the back. Why would they want the Pashtun-Arab alliance to triumph in Afghanistan? The tribal belt tail might then wag the Pakistan dolphin (I don’t want to call it a dog). However, I do see them sailing their careening ship of state (frolicking dolphins included) right up to the edge of the whirlpool — in the hopes of ejecting some of their rivals into the drain. I do not see them sailing right into it (though we should make allowance for their poor seamanship).

What the Pakistan Politicians will do is tie the Pashtun Taliban types to the Arabs. Then they will say that the Taliban and AQ are conspiring with the CIA to take over Pakistan — just like they conspired on 9-11 to bring US bases to Afghanistan and to build a gas pipeline through that country so they could then cut the supplies! They will cite this comment at the Belmont Club as proof (by an insightful and normally reliable commenter). In twenty-four hours every Pakistani on the Planet (I won’t say which one) will believe it. Mullah Omar won’t know what hit him.

Sep 21, 2008 - 8:48 am 17. peterike:

I’ve always been disappointed with politicans who answer the question “why do they hate us?” by saying “they hate us because of who we are.” They then go on to babble about how they hate our freedom etc.

Really, the correct answer to “why do they hate is” is “they hate us because of who they are.” Yet no one will say that. Somehow, we always need to point at least a little blame at ourselves.

Ahh, I long for the days when Western culture was brave enough and confident enough to simply refer to Islam as “the heathen.”

To update Pogo: We have met the enemy, and they is them.

Sep 21, 2008 - 8:50 am 18. Charles:

I think the explanation for the bombing and its timing has more to do with the targets the US has been choosing in Waziristan. Likely the ISI has been providing targeting for some of the drones. Those targets have been carefully calibrated by the ISI not to cause blow back on them. However, other targets in Waziristan have come from US generated intelligence. Like Hakemayer’s family. The Pakistanis have been screaming about this. And for good reason. They feared retaliation.

So this is the retaliation.

Never mind the generous Paki peace offer to AQ.

The bombing of the wedding party in Jordan a few years back hardened Jordanian attitudes against AQ. Its less clear what this bombing will do.

Sep 21, 2008 - 8:53 am 19. Konyok:

A thought experiment.

Why not accede to one of the jihadis demands?

Ostensibly, they want protection for the ummah from the hateful intrusions of the global infidel civilization. The Northwest Tribal Territories are a special administrative area of Pakistan, or, rather unadministered area that has never been ruled by Islamabad, and as such has served as a tribal reservation of sorts. America’s frustration with Pakistan has been that it has not been able, or willing, to assert its Westphalian sovereignty over the NWT. However, there is no tradition of a central government actually ruling over this region.

Secure the Quetta to Kabul road with a security zone. Secure the borders of the NWT and create an Islamic cultural preserve. Any who wishes to enter is welcome, at their own risk, and there will be no return to modernity.

Modern technology of any sort will be contraband. The residents can practice a pure Salafist Islam without the contamination of Western ideas or gadgets, and without the ability to export terrorists.

The government of Pakistan will be paid by the world to maintain this quarantine, as it will face fines for any violations.

Crazy, yes? Any crazier than the present situation or any other forseeable developments?

Sep 21, 2008 - 9:15 am 20. RDS:

Konyok,

Of course, the minute such a pure Islamic cultural preserve is created, you can bet a vast reserve of oil will be discovered under it!

Sep 21, 2008 - 9:30 am 21. Gringo:

Konyok: I like the idea. I also like the idea of banning Western gadgets.I don’t really give a hoot what insanity the Wahabis/Salafists/primitives care to practice. Just keep away from my world. Unfortunately they also want to convert the world, and would soon complain of the “prison.” Just like in Gaza.

Sep 21, 2008 - 10:01 am 22. NahnCee:

Agree with cjm’s observation about Paki nukes. Nuclear weapons require attention and cosseting and petting and MAINTENANCE. Even if Khan at one point decades ago was able to create something that approximated a nuclear weapon, I can’t believe that it’s still functional. In the absence of an updated public test, I’m going to plunk for the option that Pakistan’s one nuclear bomb belongs under the same heading as Saddam’s mythical “weapons of mass destruction”.

Plus which, if the terrorists *did* have access to Paki’s “bomb”, why on earth are they using tons of dynamite to cause internal blood-shed?

Don’t believe it. Damn the nukes, full speed ahead.

Sep 21, 2008 - 10:29 am 23. NahnCee:

Konyak – can we provide armed escorts for any females who want to leave your preserve, no questions asked? Provided they’re willing to give up their abayas and hijabs.

Sep 21, 2008 - 10:33 am 24. SpeakEasy:

Holdfast:

If you can’t control your own border, you are by definition ceding your own sovereignty. A sovereign state can exercise effective control over its own borders, at least most of the time (see other examples of loss of sovereignty due to lack of control of border, including the US southwest).

This comment stimulated another similar thought, how is MS-13’s existence (and other gangs) and their control of entire areas of US cities any different from AQI’s efforts in Iraq and why are we not addressing them in the same manner? Send in the military and kill them all. Case closed.

Sep 21, 2008 - 11:14 am 25. Charles:

I was in LA airport on Friday morning. I saw what looked like a couple of MS-13 guys in the boarding area. They had the look of a couple killers who had one or more of their gang killed and they needed to get out of town quickly. There was a mix of cruelty and dumb grief in their eyes. But only for a moment. The sunglasses were quickly put back on.Two boarded my plane for Charlotte NC. I caught a connecting flight to DC. They weren’t aboard. I felt bad for the communities that they would go to. Without God’s intervention they would bring their death with them and take others along.

Sep 21, 2008 - 11:29 am 26. Charles:

Michael Yon

Afghanistan is a time machine. Primitive men fight with modern weapons, radios and telephones. The Taliban’s eagerness to embrace ignorance will doom them eventually, but how many of us will they kill first? They are a relic of the beasts in our nature.

Some of the stars above must already be dead, but their light has not finished arriving to this place. The stars were far and visible, while the enemy was close and hidden. Our soldiers kill them constantly, but they keep coming. The Taliban I have seen so far are stupid compared to the enemies we faced in Iraq. The Taliban in this area are easy to kill, but there are so many of them. For safety they can always cross an imaginary line into a disintegrating land called Pakistan.

Only the heavens had taken me through Iraq alive and as witness. Afghanistan likely will be far worse. It’s in the air. It’s coming. How will this war end? I kept thinking, How will this war end? Some countries such as France are clamoring to leave already. The Brits have the wherewithal. The Americans are well-fibered. But tonight these British soldiers sleep in the dirt under the stars with their boots on. When they go home, I’ll still be here as witness. And when their replacements go home, I’ll still be here. When the replacements of the replacements go home, if the heavens consent, I’ll still be here as witness. And so will the Taliban.

The path will be long, painful and lonely. There will be no signs or markers to guide the weary. There will be no villagers to ask the way, for they will not know the way. There will be no fleet messengers bearing scrolls or maps or epistles to warn of dangers ahead. This distance is uncharted and untraveled. The sails in these desert seas billow only with mystery, and the only charts derive from the senses of experienced sailors.

The coming storm will need a witness. No less than five shooting stars cut silently through the night sky. On each shooting star, I made a wish that I know would not come true.
……………….
Kindly Shoot up a word of prayer to our Maker for Michael Yon.

Sep 21, 2008 - 12:02 pm 27. NahnCee:

Charles comfort yourself with the thought that more than likely whoever they killed was also a gang member and equally dumb, cruel and with the humanity bred out of them. So it evens out in that the taxpayer won’t have to deal with the victim(s) incarceration in the future. Although there was a gang-killing at a high school dance over the weekend. Doesn’t seem likely that they’d be importing pro’s from Dover to shoot up a teenage dance, though.

Sep 21, 2008 - 12:05 pm 28. Konyok:

Nahncee,

That’s the essential paradox, isn’t it?

Whatever *comprehensive solution* we find to any problem inevitably creates tragic situations for individuals. Conversely, an exaggerated concern for individuals can have tragic results for the community. (No, we can’t violate Moussaoui’s privacy by looking at his hard drive … )

However, I salute you as a sincere feminist. I doubt that our *official* advocates for women’s rights would even think of such a question. (Indeed, they have already created just such a notional preserve – Sarah Palin is the devil incarnate and Sharia family court in Toronto inhabits another universe far away and long ago … )

Sep 21, 2008 - 12:14 pm 29. whiskey:

Wretchard — Pakistanis no more hate themselves than we do. Rather, it is the nature of the political struggle in Muslim lands that inevitably makes the car and truck bomb, the AK-47, and violent mass killing a part and parcel of Islam and Muslim life.

It’s the Polygamy.

The first four Rightful Caliphs were assassinated. There is no way for losers to gracefully lose without being well, dead or poor. For winners to gracefully win without well, killing all their rivals. This is the feature of all Polygamist systems. There is no cooperation. Simply winner take all, by killing the rivals.

Which means any Muslim nation is going to be shot through with factions and conspiracies, with whatever faction that can kill lots of Americans “winning” and the other factions losing. Iran, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and indeed, Iraq until the threats were too dire at home.

The Surge worked because AQ sought to supplant the tribal chiefs, who had no choice but to ally themselves with a powerful, but distant and uninterested in ruling locally power — the US military.

That was the uniqueness of Iraq. In Pakistan, Iran, Saudi the conditions are different — there is no AQ to “rule” by supplanting tribal chiefs, rather to organize them.

I seriously doubt that Pakistan’s nukes are secure. Very likely it’s only a matter of time before some non-com gives a few to a cousin, for the only security and stability and support that people in Muslim nations have is clan and family.

Sep 21, 2008 - 1:51 pm 30. Storm-Rider:

“Maybe the question “why do they hate us so” should be replaced by “why do they hate themselves so?””

Islamo-Fascists hate us for two reasons.

Firstly they hate goodness and good people because they are in fact evil. We are good as a society, not at all as individuals of course, because we as a society are dedicated to the ideas in our Declaration of Independence: The self-evident created equality of all people, the idea of sacred Divinely-derived unalienable human rights, and the proposition that just government power only derives from the consent of the governed. They hate us for our good values; they hate us because our good values have made us strong and successful – and they are not.

Secondly they hate us because evil cannot hate its self; by its nature evil can only hate good; and by corollary, love death.

“All those who hate Me love death.” Proverbs

What is a good man and a good society’s response to evil?

“The fear of the Lord is to hate evil.” Proverbs

Sep 21, 2008 - 2:07 pm 31. Tony:

Cjm, I hope you are right.

But the kind of simple industrial designs that AQKhan cranked out are pretty durable. They need less maintenance than more modern weapons, Nahncee, they’re not like Stingers whose batteries go.

I hope I’m reading the newspapers right and there’s a durable core of military control in Pakistan in general, and with their nukes in particular.

WTF, if we have Predators that can see PEOPLE through walls, you know they can definitely see NUKES throughs walls, ships, trucks, planes. Right? We hope.

Sep 21, 2008 - 2:57 pm 32. slade:

It’s not the technology, but the level of effort – turn every freight and port terminal into an airport boarding gate, and secondly, political will, which isn’t sufficient to define the southern border as insecure, let alone contain it.

Sep 21, 2008 - 3:11 pm 33. NahnCee:

Tony, most of Russia’s nukes have moldered in their silo’s and are useless due to lack of maintenance. I would be astonished if whatever Khan had cobbled together was more efficient than what the Russians used to do.

Sep 21, 2008 - 3:21 pm 34. Bob Murphy:

@Tony
We should probably be trying to sense every container, ship and boat leaving Pakistan rather than every one arriving in the US.
Look at the difference in volume.
Big question.
Can we fly over every ship leaving Pakistani waters and scan for nuclear devices?
As for the Pakistani armed forces. It looks like they have degraded due to fundamentalism but if they retain a core that is properly functional it would probably include a unit capable of maintaining any nukes they might have.
I suspect that is the case.

Sep 21, 2008 - 3:26 pm 35. bobal:

I dream of nukes going to mold, nonfunctional, rusting away, useless in their storage containers, and of the green fields of peaceful forever always at my fingertips, the gambling dice always falling my way, the sun rising on my fantastic very own morning, all the future to come.

Sep 21, 2008 - 3:31 pm 36. peterike:

and secondly, political will, which isn’t sufficient to define the southern border as insecure, let alone contain it.

True dat. I have always been amazed at how easily some problems can be solved with a pinch of guts and cultural confidence. Secure the southern border? Send a few hundred guys down there, randomly scattered around, with shoot to kill orders. Problem solved. After the first couple get shot, few others will take the risk.

It really would be that easy.

Same thing for the illegals here. Randomly arrest a few. Strip them of any possessions they have, leaving them with literally nothing but the shirts on their backs, and throw them back over the border. Most of the rest will quickly get the message and depart.

Gangs? Gang membership should be punishable by swift and sure execution. I get a kick out of the old cops and robbers movies of the 30s when the bad guy is afraid of getting caught because he knows damn well he’s going to fry if caught. Who has that fear now?

When Giuseppe Zangara killed Chicago Mayor Anton Cernak (while trying to assassinate FDR) he was on death row for… guess how long?

Ten days. He murdered on Feb. 15 and was executed on March 20. That’s the sort of death penalty that deters.

Sep 21, 2008 - 3:46 pm 37. John Moore:

That the nukes no longer work (assuming they ever did) is unlikely. Primitive nukes (gun type U235 explosives) are trivial to maintain. The more efficient, and technically difficult implosion bombs are harder to build, but probably not that hard to maintain. Pakistan has a larger population than Russia, and plenty of educated engineers and physicists.

If the bombs once worked, they will likely still work.

Sep 21, 2008 - 3:49 pm 38. Papa Ray:

Moderate Muslims are not seen as good Muslims by Islamic True Believers. I have no doubt that most Muslims in Pakistan are moderate in their faith and their behaviour.

But the rest are not. The are true believers who are looking for leaders. aQi will give them leaders who want to kill infidels and form a perfect Islamic state, where as the Taliban will only give them islamic law and a return to the past.

Right now, the true believers are outnumbered and aQi is just beginning to carve out a foothold.

Oh, and the reason they hate us is because Allah told them to. He also told them that any infidels who didn’t come to Allah’s light or agree to submission to Islam and it’s followers were to be put to death.

If you have been taught that since you were a child, it is not hard to hate us and who we are.

Papa Ray
West Texas
USA

Sep 21, 2008 - 3:56 pm 39. Pascal:

How is possible that the wisdom in the slogan “Millions for defense, but not one cent for tribute” has been lost to this generation of leaders?

Sep 21, 2008 - 3:58 pm 40. slade:

If you have been taught that since you were a child, it is not hard to hate us and who we are. – Papa Ray

The western world underestimates the power of prolonged indoctrination, especially pronounced when the process is initiated during early years (which is surprising since we have so much academic research into both pre and post-natal development). Not understanding that leads to various forms of “over thinking” the problem. The other point – it’s not a completely rational world.

I could mention the m-word here but I won’t.

Sep 21, 2008 - 4:08 pm 41. Eggplant:

Supposably several senior CIA officers were the targets of this al Qaeda terrorist actions, refer to:

http://www.thaindian.com/newsportal/india-news/senior-cia-officers-were-target-of-islamabad-blast_10097943.html

This attack tells us a few things about the Islamic fascists:

1) They’re prepared to suicide a few of their own people to murder a few American officers.
2) They’re prepared to murder a hundred innocent Moslems as collateral damage to kill a few American officers.
3) They don’t care about foreign political side effects, i.e. this attack helped McCain more than it helped the Messiah.

The Islamic fascists are convinced that their actions are sanctioned by their god, i.e. morality is not an issue with them. They are also convinced of their ultimate victory. Therefore they only need to concern themselves with short term local political considerations. With the Islamic fascists, long term global political consquences are a non-issue.

Trying to isolate these people to their own “reservation” is a ridiculous notion. It’s like trying to isolate a metastasized tumour to one part of the body. Just like metastasized cancer cells, the Islamic fascists must be destoryed where ever we can find them.

Sep 21, 2008 - 4:18 pm 42. Charles:

Here’s video of the paki truck bomb. I could not get the a redirect to take this url so here it is unabridged

javascript:NVF_toggleBox(’429496729501′,%20′http://www.youtube.com/v/IuAYzLqEvJA’,'u-AFQjCNEOYnRQenNtxsyfhziTdVTek0RnJA:v-0-1_1248515539′,%20′n’);

Sep 21, 2008 - 4:23 pm 43. exhelodrvr:

Nahncee,
“most of Russia’s nukes have moldered in their silo’s and are useless due to lack of maintenance. I would be astonished if whatever Khan had cobbled together was more efficient than what the Russians used to do.”

Bombs are much easier to maintain than missiles, and Pakistan’s weapons are also much newer than Russia’s.

Sep 21, 2008 - 4:44 pm 44. Charles:

http://www.ptinews.com/pti%5Cptisite.nsf/0/179D178B914BCDCC652574C9002D3C08?OpenDocument

Islamabad, Sept 19 (PTI) Two of the seven persons killed in a missile strike by US drones in Pakistan’s restive South Waziristan tribal area this week were Arabs and included a senior operational commander of the Al Qaida in Afghanistan.

Two US drones fired four missiles at a compound in Baghar village near Angoor Adda on Wednesday, killing seven persons. The two Arabs and a Punjabi militant, who were sitting in a vehicle, were killed when a missile struck the car, The News daily reported today.

The newspaper quoted a senior militant commander as identifying the two Arabs as Jiran and Sabri. The commander said Jiran was appointed as one of Al Qaida’s operational commanders in Afghanistan after the death of commander Abu Imam three months ago.

Jiran lived in the border areas between Pakistan and Afghanistan and frequently changed his location due to continuous surveillance by the US drones, the militant commander said.
………………..
the two middle level leaders holding the same spot killed in three months. the second one changed his location frequently. he was killed in a car. meaning his position wasn’t at all fixed.

Sep 21, 2008 - 4:49 pm 45. E. Nigma:

Just a few comments about “nukes” and their shelf life.
Strategic weapons that the US and Russia maintain are usually fusion (H-bombs) weapons, with fission triggers, usually plutonium implosion bombs.
The implosion design is more delicate, in that it need sophisticated timers, and there are usually neutron enhancers present to guarantee enough neutron flux in implosion so that the thing absolutely, positively goes off. Fusion bombs also have some form of deuterium present (like lithium deuteride), that also has a finite shelf life (half-life), and must be re-furbished from time to time.
The neutron enhancer isotopes (like Americium) usually have relatively short half-lives, so they need to be replaced every few years. This is especially true of the so-called “suitcase” nukes, which absolutely depend on such flux enhancing isotopes. The shelf life of the suitcase nuke is about two years.
The simpler, Uranium gun-type bomb is indeed more robust, larger and also harder to delivery (big and heavy). If it was designed and fabricated properly, it should have a relatively long shelf life, provided that the mechanism was properly built, and the device was properly maintained. The mechanisms and timers, etc., can still mal-function, and reliability does go down with time. I would wager that the US DoD has some interesting information on just exactly what is the shelf-life of such weapons, but they haven’t shared that with me today.

Sep 21, 2008 - 5:28 pm 46. NahnCee:

Bottom line – there *is* a shelf-life for nukes. Not to mention maintenance needs.

Sep 21, 2008 - 5:38 pm 47. Mark:

steveaz writes:

“As long as the bombs are going off in Pakistan, then the Bush Doctrine is working.”

And it’s good to know that Sen. Obama knows that Afghanistan is the real front in the war and that he intends to pursue AQ aggressively.

Although . . . of course we can’t criticize Pakistan too much, because that might offend Arab and Pakistani immigrant brethren?

Hmmm, Audacity of Hope, p. 261?

“In the wake of 9/11, my meetings with Arab and Pakistani Americans, for example, have a more urgent quality, for the stories of detentions and FBI questioning and hard stares from neighbors have shaken their sense of security and belonging. They have been reminded that the history of immigration in this country has a dark underbelly; they need specific reassurances that their citizenship really means something, that America has learned the right lessons from the Japanese internments during World War II, and that I will stand with them should the political winds shift in an ugly direction.”

Sep 21, 2008 - 5:48 pm 48. Bob Murphy:

Sure NahnCee: But are you feeling lucky today?:)

Sep 21, 2008 - 5:50 pm 49. Mad Fiddler:

Nuclear Weapons comprise a number of different designs, all of which depend on compressing a mass of fissionable uranium or plutonium to “critical density.”

When I was a kid, I always heard the term “critical mass” which was meant to describe the amount of purified fissionable material that if you simply assembled it into a contiguous lump, a chain reaction would start, because more neutrons would be liberated by collisions than were being lost to absorption or escape.

The two designs of the WWII depend on the chemical energy of high explosives to either collapse a hollow plutonium sphere or send a plug of Uranium hurtling into a larger mass fast enough that these would not blow themselves apart before there had been time to complete the chain reaction.

These designs can be enhanced by the addition of a combination of deuterium and tritium gas- hydrogen isotopes with respectively one and two additional neutrons – in a prepared hollow core. The fission reaction produces enough heat to cause fusion of the deuterium and tritium, which makes more neutrons available for the fission reaction, increasing its efficiency significantly, so smaller amounts of fissionable material are needed. Additionally, varying the amount of tritium & deuterium allows for variable yield in the designs.

It seems that the trigger and enhancement technologies use isotopes with short half-lives, which decay significantly over short periods.

I believe it’s these short-lived components that make nuclear weapons so perishable.

Sep 21, 2008 - 8:15 pm 50. Lifeofthemind:

@Whiskey, It’s the Polygamy.

Great comment. The social basis of Islamism and the consequences of the sexual dysfunctions that underpin it need collaborative analysis. I nominate this as a thread worthy topic.

Sep 21, 2008 - 8:16 pm 51. cedarford:

NahnCee:
Agree with cjm’s observation about Paki nukes. Nuclear weapons require attention and cosseting and petting and MAINTENANCE. Even if Khan at one point decades ago was able to create something that approximated a nuclear weapon, I can’t believe that it’s still functional. In the absence of an updated public test, I’m going to plunk for the option that Pakistan’s one nuclear bomb belongs under the same heading as Saddam’s mythical “weapons of mass destruction”.

NahnCee:
Tony, most of Russia’s nukes have moldered in their silo’s and are useless due to lack of maintenance. I would be astonished if whatever Khan had cobbled together was more efficient than what the Russians used to do.

NahCee – You have no clue of nuke weapons MNTC requirements and you are posing as an “authority” from complete ignorance.

And misleading others.

Moreover, you are ignorant of the robust weapons building and missile program in Pakistan. Talking about them only having one bomb..

If you don’t know what you are talking about, shut up.

Pakistan has between 130 and 180 nuke bombs. Mostly tritium-boosted fission devices with a yield between 60 and 80KT.
They have modern missiles.

MNTC is tritium changeout, CKT to detonators terminus continuity check. Vacuum checks. Battery changeout.
If they had Permissive Action Links, they would have more MNTC on PALs, but they reused to install Chinese, Russian, or USA PAL components on their bombs because they feared a rival power would secretly slip a “kill” capacity in.

You are also ignorant of Russian Federation Strategic Rocket Forces maintenance and availability of deliverable nukes (that will work) anywhere on short notice.

Maybe you were one of the ones along with your fellow genius armchair generals like cjm and Samford – arguing it was safe to attack Russia over Georgia because all the nukes in Russia were disabled on your imagined lack of MNTC.

NahCee – Bottom line – there *is* a shelf-life for nukes…

Again you declare so confidently, “facts” that aren’t true. Some nuke bomb designs have an indefinite shelf life with no MNTC. Others are “good to go” indefinitely as long as simple, routine MNTC is done.

ex-helodriver commented from a better position of awareness and common sense, as he usually does.

Sep 21, 2008 - 9:55 pm 52. NahnCee:

Bob Murphy – is it just luck? I doan thin’ so.

Not to mention the very real possibility that someone may have taken something out of Khan’s little device since he first built it decades ago, so that it’s sitting there ticking away like a happy little nuclear bomb and the one doo-dad deep inside its little guts that it needs to go boom got misplaced a long long long time ago by someone on the payroll of the world’s largest economy.

Sep 21, 2008 - 10:21 pm 53. Fletcher Christian:

Lifeofthemind; let me have a stab at the topic of Islamic polygamy. It is my opinion that Mohammed (hellfire and eternal damnation be upon him) was one of the most brilliant demagogues and warlords that ever lived – and Islam was and is perfectly constructed for his purposes.

Let’s examine it. First of all, consider that young men without any prospects of sexual contact will do just about anything to change that state of affairs. (Consider that rape by conquerors probably has biological roots; it’s the payback for taking extreme risks.) Also consider that polygamy is an institution in Islam, and that extramarital sex with the members of your tribe is very strongly prohibited – but that such sex is actually encouraged with women that have just been conquered. Brilliant. Use the tendency of young, frustated, low-status men to do just about anything for a f*ck to create fanatical soldiers.

But even more brilliant; tell those same men that even if they get killed in battle, they will get the rewards – and more – that they would have got in victory, in the afterlife. So those men don’t mind getting killed.

One could use some of the other strictures of Islam against this. I am told that according to Islam even a martyr will not go to Heaven if his body is rendered unclean. So; announce a policy (and carry it out) that the bodies of jihadists will be extensively, and multiply, defiled; for example, wrap the body in bacon and throw it on the nearest convenient garbage tip. The latter is what they deserve, anyway.

Sep 22, 2008 - 2:22 am 54. Bob Murphy:

Fletcher’s “tip” = dump y’all.

Sep 22, 2008 - 4:29 am 55. 3Case:

“Why do they hate us?”

Here we go the f, again. The evolutionists who want to get the ecosystem static are, also, the therapeutic culture that wants people to overcome their codependence except when it comes to our foreign policy, then we must be concerned with what almost all others think.

“Why do they hate us?” I do not care. I do care that we are able to hunt and kill those who will do us harm (myriad restrictions notwithstanding), despite the substantial overlay of codependence in our culture and the use against us of that trait by our codependents and the rest of the World.

Sep 22, 2008 - 5:04 am 56. Tony:

Here’s FAS on Paki nukes:

On May 28, 1998 Pakistan announced that it had successfully conducted five nuclear tests. The Pakistani Atomic Energy Commission reported that the five nuclear tests conducted on May 28 generated a seismic signal of 5.0 on the Richter scale, with a total yield of up to 40 KT (equivalent TNT). Dr. A.Q. Khan claimed that one device was a boosted fission device and that the other four were sub-kiloton nuclear devices.

On May 30, 1998 Pakistan tested one more nuclear warhead with a reported yield of 12 kilotons. The tests were conducted at Balochistan, bringing the total number of claimed tests to six. It has also been claimed by Pakistani sources that at least one additional device, initially planned for detonation on 30 May 1998, remained emplaced underground ready for detonation.

The Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) estimates that Pakistan has built 24-48 HEU-based nuclear warheads, and Carnegie reports that they have produced 585-800 kg of HEU, enough for 30-55 weapons. Pakistan’s nuclear warheads are based on an implosion design that uses a solid core of highly enriched uranium and requires an estimated 15-20 kg of material per warhead. According to Carnegie, Pakistan has also produced a small but unknown quantity of weapons grade plutonium, which is sufficient for an estimated 3-5 nuclear weapons.

Pakistani authorities claim that their nuclear weapons are not assembled. They maintain that the fissile cores are stored separately from the non-nuclear explosives packages, and that the warheads are stored separately from the delivery systems. In a 2001 report, the Defense Department contends that “Islamabad’s nuclear weapons are probably stored in component form” and that “Pakistan probably could assemble the weapons fairly quickly.” However, no one has been able to ascertain the validity of Pakistan’s assurances about their nuclear weapons security.

Pakistan’s reliance primarily on HEU makes its fissile materials particularly vulnerable to diversion. HEU can be used in a relatively simple gun-barrel-type design, which could be within the means of non-state actors that intend to assemble a crude nuclear weapon.

http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/pakistan/nuke/index.html

I’m not suggesting Paki nukes are as durable as, say, my Ruger Police Service-Six, but we can’t expect them to dissolve like soap bubbles in the sun.

Sep 22, 2008 - 6:54 am 57. Fletcher Christian:

3case, well said. I don’t care why they hate us either.

I will go further, however. Being able to hunt and kill the Cthulhoid monstrosities that masquerade as humans on the other side of the 1300-year war is not enough. The step that remains is to actually do it.

There are a few things that an individual living in the West can do. If the taxi that pulls up is driven by a Muslim, don’t use it. If your local C-store or petrol station (OK, I’m a Brit!) is run by a Muslim, shop somewhere else. If one of your suppliers of goods for resale employs a Muslim to try to sell you their goods, destock them as soon as possible. If a political party puts up a Muslim as a candidate, vote for someone else; a throwaway no-hoper if you have to. And so on ad infinitum.

One might say that Muslims don’t wear a brand identifying them. I would say that the ones that matter do, by dress and attitude. One more thing; I am a Brit living in a place near to where a large number of Muslims live, a place that happens to have a major specialist hospital. Because of that, there are quite a number of Muslims in the corridors, presumably visiting relatives, and some of them are wearing full niqab.

I am the sort of old-fashioned guy that opens doors for ladies. I recently made a point of closing several doors in the faces of a couple of these individuals. There is no such thing as a Muslim lady, any more than there is such a thing as a lady that happens to be an orangutan.

Thunder and starfire are what these bloodthirsty butchers deserve, and one day they will get it. But not, unfortunately, yet.

Sep 22, 2008 - 3:07 pm 58. NahnCee:

Fletcher, you close the doors in the faces of the men accompanying the niqab-wearing females, too?

Although here in America, it’s not unusual to see an Arab man toddling along wearing jeans, a polo t-shirt, and nike’s, while his Muslim brood mare is rolling along behind him with her enveloping tent trailing down to the ground. You just know that she’s melting from the heat under that deathrag. But they do try to make it harder to pick out the male of their species.

Sep 22, 2008 - 3:24 pm 59. Bob Murphy:

@Tony!!!
You speak of nuclear weapons and you carry a wheel gun??? hahahahaha You got a sense of humor.

Sep 22, 2008 - 5:51 pm 60. Bob Murphy:

@Fletcher
That muslim woman in the bag is still a human until she proves otherwise.
Gratuitous alienation is unnecessary and unwise.
You fall into their trap.

Sep 22, 2008 - 5:59 pm 61. NahnCee:

Oh, bullshit. It’s called “peer group pressure”, and the Muslims need to know from their peer group of fellow human beings that what they have become is unacceptable. I think slamming a few doors in the face of a female who is so in *our* face about her antiquated beliefs as to wear one of those totally horrendous (and probably illegal) niqabs is a perfectly sane reaction. I just think doors need to also be slammed in the faces of male Muslims, too.

Sep 22, 2008 - 6:49 pm 62. Tony:

Yeh Bob M, that’s how you can tell I’m a real liberal, and not a modern Bizzaro-liberal: I have a sense of humor.

Thanks for noticing.

Durable persistence of DESIGN, that’s the problem, not the particular devices that the DESIGN will always spit out.

Dude, do not stand in front of a .357, no matter how old it looks.

Sep 22, 2008 - 7:04 pm 63. Bob Murphy:

@NahnCee
I wear a Celtic cross (though I am no longer Catholic) and am very polite while never taking my eyes off any one who identifies him or herself as Muslim.
They never mistake my intentions or attitudes.
They gave me respect when I was in their countries. And they acted honorably towards me.
I return the courtesy until I have reason to do otherwise.
And I am watchful, very watchful.
To be rude to them unnecessarily is to beome part of the problem.
But I concede nothing if one of them pushes.
Funny thing is that no one pushes. They can tell. There’s going to be a problem if they do.
It must be a guy thing, NahnCee.:)

Sep 22, 2008 - 7:25 pm 64. NahnCee:

Think of it this way, Bob — if the humanoid is wearing a burka or a niqab, then how do you *know* it’s a lady? You have my full permission to reach out and grab a handful just to make sure before you open the door, if you feel you must.

I’ll give ‘em their hijabs, if they feel they must. But anything that covers the face is offensive and the people wearing those garments must know that it’s offensive in the West to do so. If whoever is wearing that garb has determined it’s their right to be offensive to me, then why on earth should I be polite back?

Sep 22, 2008 - 10:06 pm 65. Mad Fiddler:

Last spring about the time of the confirmation of the Israeli strike on the Syrian Al Kibar nuclear facility I chanced upon an article about Uranium in phosphate deposits in the middle east, published about 15 March 2008 by Dr. Magdi Ragheb, an associate professor at University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign.

I commented then in Belmont’s old location, and several points seem worth recalling:

(1) There is a pretty huge amount of Uranium to be extracted from phosphate rocks, and the Middle East has vast phosphate deposits. Several sources indicate that Syria has one fifth of the phosphates in the region.

(2) As early as 2001, the International Atomic Energy Agency was aware that Syria was extracting Uranium from phosphates near Homs, and had nominally imposed some sort of safeguard provisions. Quite obviously, those “safeguard provisions” were utterly inadequate to prevent the Syrians from applying the extracted Uranium to a nuclear weapons program.

The occurrence of nuclear fuel AND bomb material in these deposits has serious implications for conflicts and alliances around the world, in addition to the specific security problems posed by facilities like Al-Kibar.

Sep 22, 2008 - 11:01 pm 66. Bob Murphy:

@NahnCee,
Maybe the gal in the hijab or whatever they call that bag was married in the old country and has to abide by her husband’s demands.
I tend to look at eyes. Those gals are not supposed to look men in the eye but they loosen up a bit after being here awhile.
Maybe they come from a family where the father will kill them for wearing “suggestive” dress. I don’t know. I take them as they come.
You are making yourself up as judge and jury here, NahnCee and you have no idea of the forces at work when you see some woman wearing one of those monstrosities.
I think you should take them as they come. You just don’t know how much volition is involved from the person in hijab.
I agree about full face covering. That should be illegal.
One thing tempers my natural repugnance towards hijab. I was taught by Irish nuns in primary school and those habits looked like they came from the same school of fashion as most of those literally outlandish outfits some muslim women wear.

Sep 23, 2008 - 2:24 am 67. NahnCee:

Bob – you need to get your Islamic dress code right.

Hijab is the head scarf. It’s frequently worn with a full-length trench-coat looking garment.

Burka is the blue tent worn in Afghanistan. It has a little beanie hat on top with mesh sewn in across the eyes to see out of. But it’s full length and a tent.

Abaya is the black robe worn in Saudi Arabia which is also full-length and a tent. It can be worn with the face open and viewable, or with a veil across the nose so that only the eyes are available.

The niqab is the more severe version of the abaya where the whole face is covered, including the forehead, with a little string thingy going along the nose from the forehead material to the material under the eyes to make sure it doesn’t slip down under the nose. The only thing viewable are two beady little eyes peering out on either side of the string thingy. I think the niqab is also the version where the female entity wears gloves so that infidels are denied the pleasure of seeing her sweaty wrists.

Fletcher Christian specifically said he closed the door in the face of an entity wearing the niqab, not the hijab. In other words, s/he was being as offensive to Western society as s/he could possibly be. Frequently niqab-wearers are Western women who have converted to Islam and who are going overboard in their zealotry to demonstrate how much they despise the country and religion they were born into.

And, don’t you think if the female involved did belong to a man who was that strict that he would be allowing her out on her own to begin with?

I think if you come up against a person in either a niqab or a burka on the streets of London or Manhattan or Paris, the first question you need to ask yourself is what are they hiding dynamite-wise under that get-up, and the second question is whether it’s a man or a woman because the nonverbal message is one of arrogance and hatred, and not peaceful coexistance.

Sep 23, 2008 - 9:24 am 68. Bob Murphy:

I find anything that denies common humanity offensive, in principle, NahnCee.
It is, however, a matter of degree.
Jewish exclusiveness I find (having grown up in San Francisco aka Tel Aviv West)amusing and not threatening. I mean how threatening can you find a culture that swings chickens around their heads in rituals and has made kvetching an art form, bless them.
Muslim fundamentalism has me on a short fuze because it is a direct challenge to a civilization I love (for all its faults).
Given all that, I will not act like an exclusivist, a dualist to the nth degree unless provoked at which point I am quite happy about dealing with them to whatever degree necessary without any remorse at all.
That becomes rapidly apparent to anyone that meets me.
Given all that, I have been honored as a fellow human being and perhaps fellow madman wherever I have travelled including Arab lands.
That is largely because of the rapport I feel towards my fellow human beings. A rapport encouraged by the promise of retribution here and now if betrayed.
As far as rapport goes, I actually find many women unfathomable in terms of logic or reason, far more so than most men in quite alien cultures.
I think a warrior type mentality can give guys a shortcut to understanding and/or respecting each other and acting honorably. I can sense other people of that type everywhere I go and they likewise.
That was even the case when I drove longhaul trucks through eastern European communist countries in the 80s, American passport and all. The border guards and I recognised each other. I was treated well (and I gave them tokens of my appreciation on the way through customs:)).
AS for gals, even when I have no idea of their underpinning logic I do not find them threatening.
For the most part, their apparently innate jealousy, and the frequent triumph of emotion and chatter mind over intellect or spiritual self tend to make them self-limiting.
Far be it from me to try to limit them when they do such a good job on themselves.
Personally my taste runs to the wild ones. Love ‘em to bits. But the volatility is always there. They come and go.
I told my last and most outstanding “partner” “the next time I want something to pat, I’ll get a dawg” when she was on her way out after succumbing to her addictions.
Covering the eyes is the last straw for me. It is a rejection of humanity that I find socially unacceptable and insulting.
Up to that I couldn’t care less.
Remember that Cheech and Chong record with the pregnant bride with a bag over her head on the cover?:)

Sep 23, 2008 - 3:59 pm

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