215 Comments

1. Lord Acton:

Nice synopsis from your PJM colleague VDH:

http://pajamasmedia.com/victordavishanson/not-quite-ready-to-join-the-crusade/

Oct 8, 2008 - 3:24 am 2. ridgerunner:

If this country is to be saved, many structural changes will be required to change the incentives to ones that will promote societal strength. Some of these have been proposed in recent posts. But we will also need people with the personal strength of Billy Jackson. See the link http://www.wlky.com/news/16509622/detail.html

Oct 8, 2008 - 3:33 am 3. RattlerGator:

Wretchard: “If the events have gone nonlinear, then Barack Obama and John McCain may ironically be struggling for the privilege of sitting in the cockpit of an airplane which has become aerodynamically unstable.”

Contrary to your earlier statement, I think this means Sarah Palin *IS* running for the Presidency this year. These next four years are going to be a thrashing-out, regardless of who sits in the Oval Office.

Win or lose, she’s positioned quite nicely for 2012. But she’s going to win this year. And she’s not going to be a shrinking violet to John McCain.

Oct 8, 2008 - 4:30 am 4. hdgreene:

One sliver of hope: When Sen. Obama is President, the government will no longer be spending, it will be investing — as in “We need to invest in a rescue package for government employee pension funds if we want those folks to keep coming to work.” Well, do we?

The problem is, Barney Frank crawled out on the wing of the financial bi-plane (it flies both ways) and sawed off the end. So now it is a wing without a prayer. The government has become the Flatliner of the markets while the “Dreamliner” of state is spiraling down — and to the Left.

Not to worry: The Federal Government will invest for all of US so we will no longer need markets — only lines and ration cards. Affordable Health care, anyone? Soup kitchens?

Oct 8, 2008 - 4:52 am 5. wretchard:

One of the reasons I’m not convinced it is useful to make a prediction about who will be elected the next President is that in the current circumstances, a month is an eon and January, 2009 is an eternity away. As the world’s political and market systems digest information they will react, but they may react in surprising ways. It’s possible that both McCain and Obama will find their positions overtaken by events. Universal health care, open borders, reparations, carbon trading, global warming, tax cuts, youth corps. Maybe that made sense in some universe, but does that universe still exist? The EU may be falling apart in front of our eyes. Of course, thing could suddenly normalize tomorrow, but even so, things have changed and I think neither candidate has a clue what the landscape really looks like now.

A lot of conservatives are depressed over McCain’s apparent inability to overtake Obama. I’m not sure that’s as important as it once seemed. Maybe the real play belongs to whoever can get out front and start up a movement for real reform. Obama is trying to use the panic to propel him into the White House. But when the markets internalize what an Obama Presidency really means a shiver will run through the already nervous system. Because really, nobody knows for sure who he is. He fixed it that way but now it may blow back on him. One of the problems of being ambiguous is that it increases the uncertainty in an already uncertain system. I think even Liberals are starting to feel nervous because deep down they understand they don’t know this man. Maybe it won’t matter if events are beyond short term control. But it can’t make people very secure to know that the Joker’s wild.

Oct 8, 2008 - 5:12 am 6. Raoul Ortega:

With The Big Zero! about to win the Presidency, and considering what his supporters are like, it would appear that Bush Derangement Syndrome was not a liability, and might even have been an asset.

Oct 8, 2008 - 5:13 am 7. gerryg:

I am a political addict. My coworkers love/hate that about me since I can be obsessive, but also humorous. My point? They are now paying attention. And they are genuinely afraid of Obama. They are obsessing also.

Something is shifting.

Oct 8, 2008 - 5:55 am 8. Clioman:

Too many partisans (on both sides) don’t seem to remember that whoever wins will then have to GOVERN with dwindling resources in the face of unprecedented challenges. Some truly hard choices will have to be made. McCain wants very much to lead–and he does have a record of reaching across the aisle–but will there be enough willing followers to matter? Obama wants very much to be in charge–and what little we know about his beliefs says he prefers an authoritarian approach–but can he compel enough obedience to make any difference? Pray for the Republic.

Oct 8, 2008 - 5:59 am 9. Mike Sylwester:

For the past couple of decades, a core issue of US politics has been the enormous obligations to pay the Baby Boom’s benefits in the Social Security and Medicare programs. It is an issue where any serious candidate for the Presidency should be able to state a clear position, and it is an issue that should be debated constantly.

I was glad that Brokow asked the candidates to state their positions on this core issue and was dismayed that neither candidate could answer coherently. Obama went on for a while about increasing revenues, but did not address the problem’s enormity.

McCain’s answer:

1) About Social Security: We all know how to fix the Social Security problem. [no details follow]

2) About Medicare: We should have a commission study the problem and then implement the commission’s recommendations.

In general, on this and other issues, McCain’s response was basically that he has experience and knows how to fix problems, but he did not propose specific policy solutions.

Oct 8, 2008 - 6:06 am 10. Doug_S:

The problem is no one in the world now believes in markets. The UK basically nationalized banks. You get your needs met not because some wise person in Washington calculates al our needs ands directs other wise people to meet those needs. Our needs are met because a market exonomy rewards people who meet our actual wants and needs.

Political decioison making is not concerned with meeting needs. That is why we get people who cannot tell you the annual maintence cost of a wind turbine deciding that our scarce calital will be invested in wind farms offshore instead of drilling offshore. and they feel good about themselves.

Oct 8, 2008 - 6:18 am 11. Reno Sepulveda:

For the record I am not one of John McCain’s friends. Anytime someone I have never met habitually refers to me as “my friend”, I habitually move my wallet to my front pocket. Issues are one thing, competency and leadership are another. McCain has always been wishy washy on the issues and he is now he’s not even looking very competent or even leader…like

Oct 8, 2008 - 6:22 am 12. bvw:

“Now Presidents and Central Bankers all the world over know how it feels to reach the perches they always dreamed of and finding themselves spectators just the same.”
Thurber-esque. Sitting in the cat-bird seat, yet … no ability to effect events in the chaos around them.

Oct 8, 2008 - 6:23 am 13. peterike:

Mike S is right, that Soc Sec and Medicare are two giant elephants in the room that no one wants to acknowledge. They can be fixed though.

Soc Sec: you raise the retirement age to 70 and you means test benefits. Why are millionaires getting benefits? Then you slowly shift the entire thing to an actual private savings plan and not a ponzi scheme.

Medicare: you let old people die. There is no reason on earth to keep 79 year old Myrtle alive for an extra six months at the cost of half a million dollars. Sooner or later we’re going to have to face this fact.

Oct 8, 2008 - 6:36 am 14. F:

Wretchard:

I read in your post a certain mystic tenor — as if current affairs are beyond human control and even if we could control them we might not want to. If this is meant to be reassuring, I for one am not comforted by the proposition. I really do get tired of politicians telling us every four years that “this election is the most important you’ve ever voted in.” (Well it is for them, for sure.) But maybe this one really is important.

I have lived and worked in Socialist and Marxist-Leninist countries and watched as governments try to outsmart the market place. An Obama presidency would clearly work to subvert the market, and would very likely do so for the benefit of the Barney Franks and Chris Dodds of this country. I think the damage to the US economy and political system would haunt us for years.

The countries I observed at first hand that tried this (Tanzania in the 70’s and Dahomey in the 80’s) could fail, or could blunder along propped up by generous benefactors, without the world suffering ill consequences. I don’t think that’s the case with the U.S. If we blunder along economically the entire world (with the possible exception of China?) is damaged, and for sure there is no generous benefactor (even China) that can or will prop us up.

And I’m not comforted much by previous posts that suggest even his own supporters are worried about how little we know about Obama and what his presidency might do to our nation. Carter messed things up quite effectively in only four years without much of a coordinated effort. Obama’s machine looks to me to be very well organized and filled with people who have spent generations dreaming of a Manchurian Candidate they could put if office and then use to bring about their dream of a socialist revolution.

Despair is the word that comes to my mind. As a pilot, I know that pulling back on the stick and stomping on the rudder pedals is sometimes the very worst action. F

Oct 8, 2008 - 6:55 am 15. Marsh Arab:

As McCain moves further to the Left, it is becoming increasingly difficult to see how the outcome of the election matters.

Oct 8, 2008 - 6:58 am 16. Lamont Cranston:

Hey peterike,
I’m a voter, and I’m old. There are about fifty or sixty million like me. Any politician that TOUCHES my social security benefits will get FIRED. You have to find a solution that’s politically palatable, or polticians won’t touch it, no matter how much sense it makes.

Lamont

Oct 8, 2008 - 7:00 am 17. Mike Sylwester:

The problems in our country’s medical-insurance system are a major issue for many voters. The government’s policy of encouraging and expecting enrollment through employers is obsolete.

Obviously, the Democrats are pushing a stealth policy intending toward an eventual nationalization of health care.

McCain has not been informing the population about the consequences of the Democrats’ intentions. Instead, McCain has been offering his own policy as some simple alternative to the Democrats’ policy, with differing features. McCain boasts that his policy will give a tax credit and will enable consumers to buy policies in any state — features that the Democrats’ policy lacks. Supposedly, McCain’s policy provides better features, so that’s why we should prefer it.

McCain should be telling the voters the unpleasant truth that his own policy offers fewer benefits, because we can’t afford the Democrats’ policy. The Democrats are promising pie in the sky and will cause further economic crises lasting through the foreseeable future. McCain should be telling the voters that he is offering them only what they really can afford. McCain should be telling the voters that the Democrats eventually will impose so many taxes and regulations in order to provide their own fabulous, free medical services that they will kill the goose that lays the golden eggs — economic growth and business innovation.

In the primaries, McCain boasted that he will tell the voters the hard truths they don’t want to hear. McCain is not telling the voters such truths. He is telling the voters what he thinks they want to hear. Now he is telling them even that they all can re-finance their homes on favorable terms that he will provide if they will elect him President.

McCain has been campaigning for President for the past year. As far as I know, he has not ever said a single word, until about three weeks ago, about requiring stricter qualifications for home loans. He perhaps supported some law a couple years ago, but since then he has not put his personal prestige on this issue. All the Republicans, including McCain, have boasted that home ownership has risen during Republican administrations.

Therefore, McCain has no real credibility on this issue. His support for that law a couple years ago is just as hollow a boast as Obama’s sending a letter about the problem a couple years ago. For the past years, neither candidate and neither party has told the voters the unpleasant truth that too many Americans have been buying homes and that the government should enforce stricter standards to make home purchases more difficult.

Oct 8, 2008 - 7:16 am 18. slade:

Sooner or later we’re going to have to face this fact. – Peterike

Dick Lamm, CO Governor’s “Duty to Die” speech (1984). This would be (close to) a non-issue if individuals would take responsibility for making their own decisions through a Living Will. Seems to me the legal (ly useless) service could find a use for itself by marketing these products.

Regarding SS, as I understand it, the kicker that has kept this issue front and center for quarter of a century is that in order to fund it, you have to tax those who won’t be needing it – Obama’s cut-off point being $250,000 and up. If those people don’t fund it, the “trust” goes insolvent.

I heard that Obama has directed his staff to “think outside the box” and present him with creative solutions to market meltdown. I won’t go cynical on him, right now, at this moment. But, as per Dick Lamm, the choices are limited (and I would further posit they don’t include Creative Capitalism or out-of-the-box thinking or fancy new investment vehicles). If there is an apocalyptic lesson that requires occasional relearning, that would be it.

Oct 8, 2008 - 7:30 am 19. Mike Sylwester:

And one more time, in last night’s debate, McCain let Obama say without objection that Obama was right to support the Iraq War from the beginning. Sure, McCain pointed out that Obama was wrong about the Surge, but if Obama indeed was right to oppose the Iraq War from the beginning, then won’t most voters agree that Obama’s judgement was more important in the overall picture.

If McCain still thinks the USA was right to invade Iraq, then he should say so. He should explain that Obama’s opposition to the war was wrong. McCain should say and explain so, even though the opinion polls show that most voters think the war was a mistake. For McCain to roll over on this issue in every single debate with Obama is stupid and weak.

Watch, it’ll happen again in the next debate. Obama will boast that Obama was right to oppose the War, and McCain will boast that McCain was right to support the Surge. And once again McCain will sink farther down in the polls. McCain will sink and sink, because he is afraid to stand up and fight on key issues and tell the voters the hard truths they don’t want to hear.

Oct 8, 2008 - 7:31 am 20. Lifeofthemind:

My wish would have been that McCain had put a real game changer on the table that would have made clear who supports the permanent government and who supports the taxpayer. He could have done that by simply stating, “Now is the time for a 10% pay cut for the Federal Civilian GS schedule.” That alone could conservatively save $10 Billion dollars a year. Adjustments to other civilian pay scales could double that. Also every government employee should be subject to annual testing as to their fitness for their job. If they do not meet the standards do to some work related injury then put them in Workman’s Comp. or pension them off. If they fail pass a knowledge based test or to pass a job related physical then give them one retest within 60 days and if they fail give them another 60 days to find another job. The work of our often uncivil servants would be improved and the taxpayer would save at this time of hardship.

Oct 8, 2008 - 7:32 am 21. Lifeofthemind:

due not do
Preview please.

Oct 8, 2008 - 7:36 am 22. Charles:

central banks around the world initiated a coordinated rate cut. Most countries world wide are dumping money into their banking systems. The US fed has increased M2. (I don’t know what that means but I read that Bernake let it go to zero earlier in the year but as a result of fed actions of the last month or so its up around 800 billion.)

I think everyone is getting the narrative right. The risks of a depression are easing to be replaced by a recession duration unknown.

But this prognosis is premature. The proof of the pudding ie depression vs recession according to the morning news — is in the lombar rates–ie interbank lending rates. This is a measure of how much banks trust each other.

(Its the central bank coordination that is encouraging.)

Oct 8, 2008 - 7:49 am 23. Mark:

I liked the question via the internet from the woman who asked what each candidate would ask of citizens re. sacrifice. Sen. Obama ended up with the predictable JFK call to national service, a good nod to youthful enthusiasm that wants to change the world for the better.

Perhaps the right answer for Sen. McCain would have been to say, “We need to ask citizens to give up the dreaam of the quick fix, the crack cocaine of easy money, the quicksand of easy credit. Giving it up will hurt. But it’s the right thing to do. It’s a real sacrifice.” I won’t hold my breath.

Lamont Cranston writes:

“Hey peterike, I’m a voter, and I’m old. There are about fifty or sixty million like me. Any politician that TOUCHES my social security benefits will get FIRED. You have to find a solution that’s politically palatable, or polticians won’t touch it, no matter how much sense it makes.”

Lamont is quite right, since Social Security is not supposed to be an entitlement program.

Peterike raises the other point, however, that touches on medicare. In a death denying culture, which at the same time and paradoxically is a culture of death, how much should the nation allot to care for the elderly? I don’t know. Give each person an allowance/account at age 70 to spend as desired on health care until it runs out? I don’t think we are even equipped to pose the question let alone posit a solution. We have not learned to embrace, as St. Francis called her, Sister Death, and therefore we assign ultimate value (worthy of extraordinary monetary intervention) to life, even for the old old.

Speaking of age, those of us with aged parents are understandably wary of John McCain’s age. It will be interesting to revisit the primary season. Very few people can bear during that season to look ahead to the general election, which always moves to the middle and raises some common sense questions such as “Why did you nominate someone who raises questions among voters re. diminishing powers/imminent decline of mental capacity?”

Back to the topic of the post: In the short term, if we raise taxes or try to game the market, we’re toast. Much better to lower taxes, balance the budget, and take the lumps. Build for the future. Use increased revenues from increased energy production to seed new technologies.

Oct 8, 2008 - 7:53 am 24. slade:

the lombar rates – Charles

That’s LIBOR I think, but I can see the insiders calling it “lombar” with a wink.

Oct 8, 2008 - 8:01 am 25. Charles:

OT: Michael Yon has an interesting piece in which he asks british high command is saying the afghan war in unwindable but their soldiers enjoy high morale and think the war is winnable.
http://www.nydailynews.com/opinions/2008/10/08/2008-10-08_the_afghanistan_paradox.html

Oct 8, 2008 - 8:03 am 26. slade:

Global Financial Crisis: How Long? How Deep?

The unique nature of the current financial crisis – combining a house price bust, a credit crunch, and an equity price bust – unlike any other one the US has experienced before, makes it difficult to assess its implications for the real economy. Barry Eichengreen recently assessed the lessons from the Great Depression (Vox 2008), but what of the evidence from modern times? We have witnessed many such episodes of credit crunches and busts in house and equity prices around the world since 1960. In fact, in recent work, we identified 28 credit crunches, 28 house price busts, 58 equity price busts, and 122 recessions in 21 advanced countries over 1960-2007 (Claessens, Kose and Terrones, 2008). These episodes provide some insights on how financial crises evolve and their implications for the broader economy.

What are the lessons for the current episode?

The suggestion is that “one size fits all” will not be a viable fix, and, secondly, no historical analogues for the current “triple whammy.” A third, ancillary, conclusion would seem to suggest that conspiracy would have to be driven by no small measure of brilliance. An intermediate interpretation would be a smaller-scale conspiracy aided and abetted by psychology-driven market forces. They’re calling it The Perfect Storm. (great movie with that other George – Clooney.)

h/t Elephant Bar

Oct 8, 2008 - 8:22 am 27. sigintel:

The Republican Party nominated McCain even though he is: Old, A Washington insider, not an economic wonk and has reached across the isle to benefit Democrats more than Republicans. What a mistake! His pick of Palin is the only bright spot in an otherwise listless and dull campaign. I’m trying to prepare myself for an Obama presidency and it simply scares the hell out of me that half of the US electorate will vote for someone who wont even release his college transcripts. Nobody knows who he really is except for his relationships that define him as a Marxist, racist and a “pols pol”. I used to think that four years of a Hillary Clinton presidency would insure that the country would move to the right in a reaction to her over the top health care plans and socialism. With Obama being “slicker than slick Willie”, I’m not sure that the US will not move more to the left. This guy is real smooth and has the Chicago machine now running the Democrat party. As Wretchard ponders that events can still change the race, I’m not so sure anything can stop this guy except alot of aging boomers dragging them selves to the polls and holding their nose to vote for that stinker McCain.

Oct 8, 2008 - 8:24 am 28. slade:

Use increased revenues from increased energy production to seed new technologies. – Mark

To that end, I still like Dave’s concept of building a new market exchange to support new technologies. The venture capital won’t do the trick for serious energy transition. IMO

(And I am curious about Dave’s “last PM post” – just disgusted with this, that, and everything or bowing out pending the likely Obama administration?)

Oct 8, 2008 - 8:29 am 29. Marion:

If anyone deserves to be called a “punk kid” it is McCain. Referring to Obama as “that one” as he did in last night’s debate is rude and in very poor taste. As is team McCain/Palin’s cheap shot references to Bill Ayres. As it their disgraceful ad attacking Obama about funding education for kindergarten children that helps to protect them from dangerous predators and framing it as a sinister form of “sex education.”

How disappointing that a man who went through five years of hell in North Vietnam still aligns himself with the Republican Party of Abu Ghraib, Guantanamo and extraordinary renditions.

Oct 8, 2008 - 8:43 am 30. slade:

building a new market exchange to support new technologies – Pumpkin Head

Like that’s gonna happen now.

Oct 8, 2008 - 8:59 am 31. trangbang68:

Marion- You spelled Ayers’ name wrong which is probably why you think it is a cheap shot to address something you’re willingly ignorant about. Just continue to be a dumb sheep.
I ‘m sure it wouldn’t cross your fevered mind but is it possible that being tortured by totalitarian monsters might convince McCain that there are other evil doers out there who must be stopped before they set the world on fire. Your Golden Boy thinks we can play nice with the Barbarians at the Gate because he is a naive fool like you are.

Oct 8, 2008 - 9:03 am 32. MarkJ:

Marion,

How disappointing that a backbenching, unaccomplished, clueless, prevaricating, self-described community organizer who knows better has aligned himself with Tony Rezko, Reverend Wright, Bill Ayers, and all those Wall Street hotshots from whom he eagerly accepted money without a moment’s thought.

See, Marion? Two can play this game.

Oct 8, 2008 - 9:04 am 33. programmer:

Mark says:

We have not learned to embrace, as St. Francis called her, Sister Death, and therefore we assign ultimate value (worthy of extraordinary monetary intervention) to life, even for the old old.

programmer opines:

This, I believe, is the very core issue with the Boomer generation, striving for one more “speaking of truth to the man”. They have come to grips with the absolute knowledge that THEY, the exceptional ones, the ones who expanded their minds, the ones who loved freely and often, the ones who brought down governments, blew up buildings, who “got IT” are going to really, truly die. They have completely bought into the idea that there is no heaven or hell. They just die. They only had one life to live,…and it is almost over. And that thought, that sure knowledge is a burning Hell for them. They DO NOT want this life to end. They have nowhere to go. A blink and it is over. No waking up. No one will remember them. A hundred years from now they may be just a footnote in some dusty history tome which no one will read anyway. It burns, it burns forever….Blink.

Oct 8, 2008 - 9:08 am 34. Dave:

Slade, I am still here. PM means the opposite of AM. Was past time for me to go to bed. I usually just take a look in the AM before going to work and reserve commentary for the PM after I get home.

But will make one medicare comment before leaving this morning. 26% of medicare payments are for patients in the last six months of life. In so far as this involves making extraordinary efforts to keep somebody technically alive, it should cease. Question is how does one go about accomplishing this without straying over the line into euthanasia? Not an easy question to answer.

See you all this Post Meridian.

Oct 8, 2008 - 9:14 am 35. slade:

Dave -
Oh.
I knew that.
::))

Oct 8, 2008 - 9:27 am 36. vanderleun:

Flying Rule of Thumb: Three mistakes equals one crash.

Oct 8, 2008 - 9:44 am 37. Alexis:

Among the nonlinear aspects of this political season are the cultural overtones of Star Wars. Two of the most interesting characters in the film are black. Firstly, Darth Vader was a black guy; James Earl Jones did his voiceover. Secondly, there’s Lando Calrissian, played by Billy Dee Williams. Any black politician in contemporary America who plays to these “Star Wars” archetypes will amplify his stage presence, and Barack Obama plays to both of these literary archetypes.

Whatever else can be said about Barack Obama, he represents a myth of a Black Camelot. He looks good in a suit, and to quote Chris Mathews, he is debonair. He can dance. He exudes the ideal of “Chicago Cool”. To many people in America, he comes across as a latter-day Adlai Stevenson with pizzazz. And his political campaign’s iconography presents him with a halo, as if he were a messiah. To those who see him as a latter-day Fred Astaire, all Barack Obama needs to do is sound halfway intelligent and he will win any debate hands down simply because he looks good.

Meanwhile, his detractors would present him as the bastard son of an African prince and his Communist mistress from a family of white Unitarians, with this son of Africa then learning at the feet of Marxist sages, joining the Church of Black Racism, and becoming last best hope for the remnants of the old International.

Barack Obama is neither a messiah nor an anti-Christ, but he does play the chords of the subconscious desires of Americans very effectively, to the point of eliciting strong emotions on all sides. Whatever else can be said, he is not particularly adept at calming people down about himself. Despite his appearance of calm, he promotes excitement.

In some respects, Barack Obama has an excellent foil in John McCain. As honorable and patriotic as John McCain is, he comes across as an old warrior – an ancient mariner who was also a pilot. John McCain may fit some of the “Luke Skywalker” archetype a bit too well for his own good.

Yes, yes, Luke Skywalker wins in the Star Wars saga, but that’s not where the power is. He doesn’t get the best lines and he doesn’t wear the best outfit – that goes to the black guys in the movie. Just like most of the rest of Hollywood cinema, the black guy dies. And it’s a second death for a white adolescent brat who’s condemned to the purgatory of living his life as a black guy. So, think of Darth Vader as the latest cinematic form of blackface.

Then, there’s Lando. The character of Lando Calrissian is cool. He didn’t get his position of authority by sucking up to people. He got there by being a rogue. Darth Vader was a sellout; Lando Calrissian wasn’t, even if he was forced to cave in to Darth Vader’s demands out of expediency. Barack Obama has some of the coolness and pizzazz of Lando Calrissian, but there’s something missing.

I think the biggest question about Barack Obama is simple – is he a sellout?

Did Barack Obama sell out his principles and his manhood in his quest for power and adulation? I don’t think American voters have answered that question yet. If Barack Obama is perceived as a sellout, he will lose. If Barack Obama is perceived as a confident rogue who has not sold out any aspect of who he is, he will win.

Oct 8, 2008 - 9:57 am 38. Habu:

You can run and you can eventually hide.

McCain looked,as I said last night prior to it being purged, that the years in the Hanoi Hilton are casting a terrible shadow on him. His gait looked halting, his eyes while not actually in saccade,but had the brief movements of a large-field visual stimulus elicit short-latency tracking eye movements termed “ocular following responses”, not a sign of mental acuity.

I don’t want Obama as Pres, at all , period. But Mr. McCain seems evey bit to be the oldest nominee ever running for the WH and that is very sad, especially at a time when we need someone who is more articulate, younger, energetic, and better versed in economics.

Oct 8, 2008 - 9:57 am 39. Eggplant:

The opinion polls are all over the place, refer to:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

“Hotline/FD Tracking” says the Messiah is ahead by 1%.
“Gallup Tracking” says the Messiah is ahead by 10%.
These polls are supposed to have standard deviations
of 3%. Obviously some of these polls are bogus (probably the ones favoring McCain).

Unfortunately the Messiah’s lead in the Electoral College is crushing at 101 votes.

My guess is the scales are starting to fall off of some people’s eyes as they see there’s a real possibility that the Messiah will win. Unfortunately I don’t think this will be a significant factor.

I’m voting for John McCain come hell or high water. However it looks like hell or high water are strong possibilities.

Oct 8, 2008 - 10:02 am 40. WSL:

Indeed, this may be the first presidential election where the winner demands a recount

Oct 8, 2008 - 10:04 am 41. slade:

Who’s counting vanderleun?

At my age, guilt is a distant memory of sins committed not on whim, but in defiance, for its own sake.

But the real crisis, barring a miracle, is going to be coyote ugly with only marginal precedent for guidance. Very hard not to go negative on the next two years. The potential for financial vulnerability to invite more violence flying just under the radar screen.

Oct 8, 2008 - 10:07 am 42. Habu:

WSL
That is very good.

Oct 8, 2008 - 10:08 am 43. peterike:

Lamont: Any politician that TOUCHES my social security benefits will get FIRED. You have to find a solution that’s politically palatable, or polticians won’t touch it, no matter how much sense it makes.

Nice attitude. Dude, keep in mind, in case you don’t know, that there’s no box somewhere with your name on it and a bunch of money inside. You get paid out of money that comes into the system NOW, not anything you threw in over the years. Which is the whole problem with the system. Now I don’t know anything about you Lamont, but just for the sake of argument, if you have a couple of mil in the bank and were drawing say $100k a year on interest, why on earth does anybody owe you a thing?

Programmer makes a good point about the Boomers. They will hold onto life to their last broken breath. I guess the abyss looms darkly for many of them. But as Dave points out, an extraordinary amount of money is spent on the last part of life, which is often lived quite miserably. He cites 26% of costs in the last six months. I’ve seen much higher figures. From a 2002 study: “77% of the Medicare decedents’ expenditures occurred in the last year of life, 52% of them in the last 2 mo, and 40% in the last month.”

Assuming that’s true, you could cut the Medicare budget in half by cutting people two months short. The math is pretty compelling, and I think at some point we’re going to have to face it. Especially if we nationalize health care, which automatically means it will be rationed and scarce. Are we going to be able to justify keeping a bunch of old folks alive for a few more months while younger people can’t get treatment?

“Today the Obama administration announced it’s new ‘green’ initiative. Soylent Green that is….”

Oct 8, 2008 - 10:10 am 44. Orphaned Son of Liberty:

Habu: we need someone who is more articulate, younger, energetic, and better versed in economics.

Write-in Bobby Jindal?

But seriously, McCain’s proposed 300B giveaway was really the last straw. How do you solve the financial crisis caused by a massive wealth transfer via real estate to the poor by the liberals? I know, propose a counter give-away — a massive wealth transfer via real estate to the old (retirees) by the “I can out liberal you!” canidate.

What’s left is a candidate whose only credential for earning my vote is that he is *not* Barkie Obama.

McCain was supposed to grab Obama by the throat at this debate. Instead he grabbed his own ankles.

Depressing.

Oct 8, 2008 - 10:12 am 45. Eggplant:

peterike said:

“Today the Obama administration announced it’s new ‘green’ initiative. Soylent Green that is….”

Great minds work alike. I was thinking “Soylent Green” just as I read your last line.

We are in such deep manure….

p.s. Take a look at the Real Clear Politics polls. They’re all over the place. Obviously, people are starting to freak out.

Oct 8, 2008 - 10:14 am 46. Coyotl:

Watching McCain wobble around on stage last night I thought of Bob Dole in ‘96, another honorable, maimed war veteran, about a decade past retail value. I agree with Habu and Alexis (w/o the Star Wars analogies) in that on a deep psychological level, these dramatic differences of raw phsyicality matter when picking a chief.

Obama missed his opportunity. He should have asked for a half-dozen town hall debates.

Oct 8, 2008 - 10:14 am 47. Habu:

habu

yeah

Possumtater here.

yeah.

Why do you thinK Mr. Fernandez won’t tell you what you didi wrong?

‘tater, I don’t know. You know I’ve aked him.

yeah , I know habu. I guess he feels he doesn’t need to answer to anyone about his blog..I guess, except to his sponsors.

yeah his sponsors. i wonder who they are suppporting in the election?

don’t know.

ok dude

yeah man. later

Oct 8, 2008 - 10:15 am 48. Konyok:

Alexis,

What I find interesting is that the majority of Obama supporters I speak with eventually disclose that they count on his being a sellout.

Oct 8, 2008 - 10:20 am 49. Habu:

Coyotl
You make the point. In nature the old in the herd usually have a hard time keeping up and are eventually consumed by a lion or a gerbil.

In humans the young easily recognize old and feeble and can rarely engage them in a friendly game of three on three. And can you imagine a White House lawn game of tag football with the VP saying. “McCain go long” The babes certainly can’t imagine, well let’s not go there. But the most damning of all are other old people who realize that one their age simply can’t put in a 23 hour day like the President often has to in order to keep up.

Why Obama could get all his work done by 3PM and still have time to build bombs in the downstairs National Security Room with Bill Ayers, talk to Hugo and Vlad about undermining the USA. Youth is wasted on the young.

Oct 8, 2008 - 10:28 am 50. Habu:

habu

yeah

if he’s cut you off how are you doing this posting?

Oct 8, 2008 - 10:29 am 51. slade:

The believer versus blank slate issue was raised by Wretchard – what? – a year ago I think. And still …

Hmphh. Camelot resurrected as an avatar for “zen socialism”. It’s The Aesthetic (certainly not the Ascetic.)

Although both are suggested.

Oct 8, 2008 - 10:36 am 52. Habu:

magic

Oct 8, 2008 - 10:41 am 53. slade:

majestic

It’s Perfect, isn’t it?

Oct 8, 2008 - 10:53 am 54. Pascal:

Habu, you’ve had some fine moments, some not. But this, your self absorption, has turned to spam. Go find your self respect and then return.

Oct 8, 2008 - 10:53 am 55. Konyok:

I was disturbed during the Republican primary when the candidates continually tried to caste themselves as the “next Reagan” or as a “real conservative.” Even at that point the non-linearity of current events was becoming apparent, but disassociative nostalgia became the dominant Republican theme. John McCain won the nomination because he was unique in having a strategic vision for the campaign.
The Democrats cavalierly presumed that their primary was to be about who best bashed Bush. Barack Obama’s Hope and Change tour took the party by storm. with the reassuring message that *fundamental change* was easy and fun.

We are approaching the fruition of the Ayers generation pedagogy. Unopposed, they have directed the pop culture’s ur-message “follow your heart” into a maudlin politics of aesthetic social consciousness. (Lying and stealing are tacky, but knowingly living an “unsustainable” lifestyle is evil.) The imperative is to “make a difference.” This is the new universal good, with selfless community organizing at the apex of the virtuous schema.
All of this has taken place during a period of illusory post-scarcity. Even now, most Americans still feel that their vote is “sending a message,” rather than a serious choice with real consequences.

Now, financial crisis threatens our economic strength and even possibility our well-being. This perception of weakness encourages and emboldens our enemies.

Last night, Barack Obama upped the ante by stating flatly that this crisis is the final verdict on failed Republican policies. It is now one step closer to an existential crisis and adds yet another erratic term to the chaotic flow of events. (Alexis is absolutely right – Obama seems cool but is an irritant.)

Last night, Obama also seemed to indicate that he is NOT aware of the non-linearity and that he likely does not have the surfing skills to weather the storm. (We are going to miss George Bush pretty soon, no matter what happens.) Example: after agreeing with McCain that federal spending cuts are needed, he insisted on repeating his stump list of new goodies, oblivious to the growing fear in the country.

Things are looking pretty scary right now.

But, like our market purist friends tell us, it’s creative destruction.

Oct 8, 2008 - 11:07 am 56. Pat C:

Orphaned Son of Liberty

I am new to politics this year. Who is Bobby Jindal?

Oct 8, 2008 - 11:26 am 57. Zim:

When Medicare was started in 1965 its projected cost was 8 billion over 10 years. In 1975 the cost was 88 Billion.

“Letting people die” isn’t an answer, it’s a cop out. The problem with Medicare is the government, not the patients. There are ways of placing price controls and still give quality care. However, government isn’t interested in any of that nonsense, they just want their papers shuffled the right way.

Oct 8, 2008 - 11:26 am 58. Orphaned Son of Liberty:

Pat C asks: I am new to politics this year. Who is Bobby Jindal?

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jump to: navigation, search
Piyush “Bobby” Jindal

Jindal in 2005

——————————————————————————–

55th Governor of Louisiana
Incumbent
Assumed office
January 14, 2008
Lieutenant Mitch Landrieu
Preceded by Kathleen Blanco

——————————————————————————–

Member of the U.S. House of Representatives
from Louisiana’s 1st district
In office
January 3, 2005 – January 14, 2008
Preceded by David Vitter
Succeeded by Steve Scalise

——————————————————————————–

Born June 10, 1971 (1971-06-10) (age 37)
Baton Rouge, Louisiana
Political party Republican
Spouse Supriya Jolly Jindal
Children Selia Elizabeth
Shaan Robert
Slade Ryan
Residence Kenner, Louisiana
Alma mater Brown University,
Oxford University

More importantly, Jindal is an articulate, well informed, brilliant rising star in the Republican party. A true conservative with a record of executive accomplishment.

Jindal-Palin in 2012!

Oct 8, 2008 - 11:31 am 59. Orphaned Son of Liberty:

Whoops… bad copy and paste, in my previous. My apologies BC.

Oct 8, 2008 - 11:34 am 60. programmer:

Zim,
As some one who has some insight into health care and government interaction your comment:

“However, government isn’t interested in any of that nonsense, they just want their papers shuffled the right way.”

prompts this response:

The health care industry is riddled with suspect practices. Health care providers submitting claims for work never performed. Claims submitted for non-existent patients. I’m sure you have read about this on the web and heard it in the news. These crimes or mistakes result in additional requirements for documentation for every detail in health care practice. The resulting information flow results in better monitoring of how TAXPAYER’S MONEY is used. It is not perfect, by any means, but it is a step towards more efficiency and less opportunity for fraud. Some of the paperwork is being computerized. However,it is amazing how very little of the data flow in a hospital, for example, is recorded in a database for subsequent access due to HIPAA requirements (in my opinion, a good regulation. If you are not familiar with it, google it). That is why, as a patient, you frequently find yourself filling out the same information over and over again as you move from office to office in a hospital. We’re fixing some of that (note my nom-de-surfkeyboard).

Oct 8, 2008 - 11:52 am 61. Eggplant:

Konyok said:

“We are approaching the fruition of the Ayers generation pedagogy. Unopposed, they have directed the pop culture’s ur-message “follow your heart” into a maudlin politics of aesthetic social consciousness. (Lying and stealing are tacky, but knowingly living an “unsustainable” lifestyle is evil.) The imperative is to “make a difference.” This is the new universal good, with selfless community organizing at the apex of the virtuous schema. All of this has taken place during a period of illusory post-scarcity. Even now, most Americans still feel that their vote is “sending a message,” rather than a serious choice with real consequences.”

Again, this is residual Gramscian damage left over from the Cold War. William Ayers is the classic example of a Gramscian windup robot still following his master’s programming long after the master died from cirrhosis of the liver. If the Soviet Union still existed today, they’d have us by the balls.

Oct 8, 2008 - 12:05 pm 62. sirius_sir:

Wretchard is on to something regarding the ineffectuality of the bailout. And that skepticism is shared by the unwashed masses. Something other than a little more spit and polish seems needed in this case, witness the desire to see the entire Congress thrown out so we can start with a fresh slate.

Neither McCain nor Obama can alter this mess. Well, they can, but that’s all it will be–an alteration–when what is needed is an obliteration of the present structure. McCain is in a better position to do so and may yet. He needs to state the intention and mean it. Announcing Palin as his running mate was a good start, but he needs to get others with prosecutorial experience (Giuliani?) and practical economic knowledge (Romney?) on board too.

He should then vow to go after the ones responsible, no matter who they may be or where they reside. If old man Rigas can be frog marched to jail because his company imploded, then why not–to pick a name from the hat–Barney Frank?

Oct 8, 2008 - 12:16 pm 63. Zim:

Programmer,

I agree with you that the government is required to monitor for abuses. My point was really a visceral reaction to some reading here that to let the old die because they are to expensive is not an answer. And, that the government is not always an honest player either.

This will be boring but For example, Hospitals are paid by a diagnosis weight on inpatient Medicare admissions. Pneumonia weights around 1.000 which varies some but pays out around $3,000. No matter how long the patient’s in the hospital or what else arises during the stay this is all the hospital gets for the care provided.

The diagnosis is made by the attending physician who is constantly berated by the office of inspector general and the physician review organization to not over code. Physicians are paid by the visit, not by the DRG, so over coding doesn’t factor into a physcian’s thinking anyway.

What the constant hounding by the government does is to scare the physician into undercoding. Say the physician admited the patient for pneumonia, treats with expensive antibiotics for pneumonia but due to the recent onset of infection or presence of dehydration the pneumonia doesn’t show on x-ray. Well the physician many times will simply change the diagnosis to acute bronchitis to avoid trouble with the government even though they believed the patient did in fact have pneumonia. Acute bronchitis pays $1,500 less than pneumonia. So a hospital spent to treat pneumonia, but were payed for acute bronchitis.

This happens all the time. No one governs the government, and they get away with this bullying.

Oct 8, 2008 - 12:25 pm 64. phil g:

I’m don’t have the expertise to properly assess this, but fascinating take on poll weighting and how this might be massively overstating Obama’s lead:

http://strata-sphere.com/blog/index.php/archives/6392

Oct 8, 2008 - 12:29 pm 65. sirius_sir:

Someone with more artistic skill than I possess could make an effective political cartoon showing a man trying to hold onto his wallet while a crowd populated by the likes of Jim Johnson, Chris Dodd, Franklin Raines, Barney Frank, Jamie Gorelick, William Ayers, and last but not least, ‘that’ one and earthly exalted One, Barack Obama, attempt to arrest it from him. On one side we see the crowd chanting, “Yes We Can…” On the other we see (and most likely empathize with) the man who just as determinedly replies, “No You Can’t!”

Down at the very bottom, some little Tole-like urchin pipes up, “Don’t worry, we’ll give you change.”

Oct 8, 2008 - 12:31 pm 66. programmer:

Zim, Not boring at all. Interesting, actually (well, to me, anyway). Thanks.

Oct 8, 2008 - 12:40 pm 67. Peter Boston:

If Obama is a threat to the Republic, as so many believe he is, then why are people who could make a difference sitting on their tongues?

I think that the sitting President should step up and say loudly and clearly that he has too much respect for the Office to remain silent – Obama is not qualified to be POTUS – his left-wing associations with people who actively seek the destruction of the Republic disqualify him from CIC. That he has tried to hide these associations and lied about them disqualifies him.

McCain is a woos. He seems more concerned about being polite than preventing the obomination.

Oct 8, 2008 - 12:47 pm 68. Bret:

“But when the markets internalize what an Obama Presidency really means a shiver will run through the already nervous system…”

What do you mean “when”? They’ve started discounting the possibility of an Obama president for quite some time. I believe that the housing bubble burst when Reid/Pelosi took over. Business people (like me) stopped investing, stopped expanding, stopped hiring, and as a democrat president became more and more likely, the economy started spiraling down faster and faster. Intrade.com’s obama contract has a negative correlation (-.4) with the stock market.

Oct 8, 2008 - 12:47 pm 69. newtland:

Maybe I missed him, but Mitt seems to be assiduously studying his navel.

Biding his time?

Oct 8, 2008 - 12:49 pm 70. Eggplant:

phil g said:

“I’m don’t have the expertise to properly assess this, but fascinating take on poll weighting and how this might be massively overstating Obama’s lead”

I commented on this before but my comment included a link and was moderated out.

If you look at the polls for Real Clear Politics, they are all over the place. These polls are supposed to have a standard deviation of 3% and I’m seeing 10% variations. However I don’t derive any hope for McCain from this. McCain is associated with the party in power and the party in power ALWAYS gets tossed out when the economy tanks. The economy has tanked, therefore McCain should be toast. However the Chosen One is obviously incapable of getting us out of this mess. That basic truth must be dawning on people.

Oct 8, 2008 - 12:52 pm 71. buddy larsen:

Jindal, oh my sakes alive could we have used Bobby Jindal on that townhall stage last night. He can’t be coped with by an opponent who doesn’t understand the issues on a deep intellectual historical basis, and/or who can’t clearly and artfully communicate same.

Oct 8, 2008 - 12:52 pm 72. Eggplant:

Bret said:

“They’ve started discounting the possibility of an Obama president for quite some time. I believe that the housing bubble burst when Reid/Pelosi took over. Business people (like me) stopped investing, stopped expanding, stopped hiring, and as a democrat president became more and more likely, the economy started spiraling down faster and faster. Intrade.com’s obama contract has a negative correlation (-.4) with the stock market.”

I agree with your analysis. But now look at the full context. McCain is getting creamed because the economy is tanking (Premise: ALWAYS vote out the party in power when the economy tanks). However the economy is tanking because B. Hussein looks like he’s winning (Premise: Socialists are ALWAYS bad for the economy).

We’re in a viscous circle.

Oct 8, 2008 - 12:59 pm 73. Eggplant:

Change “viscous circle” to “vicious circle”. Doing too much fluid mechanics…

Oct 8, 2008 - 1:02 pm 74. peterike:

Re to Bret. You know, it’s amazing. The public’s mental correlation between the Dems taking over Congress and all these shoes hitting the fan is close to zero. Has anyone taken a poll that asks, “Who is in charge of Congress?” I bet you’d get over 50% of people saying the Republicans are.

As for PhilG’s post on polls. Interesting, and worrisome. Imagine that BHO goes into Election Day with a perceived 3-5% lead and loses. The “stolen election” cries would be ceaseless and trouble would be brewing.

Oct 8, 2008 - 1:02 pm 75. buddy larsen:

Bret is right –the 2006 election stopped the economy in mid step –and the GOP primary, when the great knights one after another galloped to the grandstand and fell off the horse, stalled confidence even more. And the arc downward continues. The credit crisis threatening to consume us is based as much on lost confidence as bad numbers –well they’re feeding each other –and this freaked out unreal-seeming zombie election is just burying the whole idea of recovery anytime soon.

August’s Russo/Georgia war didn’t help, either, from the confidence POV. An aggressive foreign adversary against the people who will populate the Obama administration? Pray for mercy –bad things could happen –including deliberate military disasters. You know –to “teach us our lesson”. Worse even than that thing in the desert Jimmy Carter did re hostages. Worse than Pueblo and Mayaguez. Think “Pearl Harbor”. And, sorry to be so depressing.

Oct 8, 2008 - 1:06 pm 76. phil g:

Eggplant,
If the party in charge gets tossed out than I look for a house cleaning in Congress on the next couple of election cycles.

I get so fed up with the nonsense of POTUS candidates blaming the prior candidate for spending and claiming great spending plans of their own…last time I checked it was Congress who controls spending. POTUS can either sign on or veto. Would be nice if Mr. Straight Talk Express would clarify this after one of The One’s bloviations.

Oct 8, 2008 - 1:11 pm 77. Pascal:

Peter, it would all be projection. In Los Angeles, the local and state GOP has been nothing short of enabling the fraud against them, hence my assessment in the Attack At Dawn thread of how the “old order” functions.

And remember: every penny spent on ads at “Mainstream Information Control” keeps it alive to war against all opposition to the old order.

Oct 8, 2008 - 1:13 pm 78. sirius_sir:

Eggplant, sometimes it just feels like a viscous circle.

Oct 8, 2008 - 1:13 pm 79. Old Chief:

I, too, am a voter and old.

They can keep my social security payment and put it where the sun don’t shine, if only they would let me out of Medicare.

I never believed the gross amount on my pay stub; only thing I got paid was the after-tax net. Each day I worked and got paid was sufficient unto itself.

I hate Otto’s social security plan and FDR for forcing it on the American public.

Don’t ‘fix’ social security: End it!

Oct 8, 2008 - 1:14 pm 80. phil g:

Buddy,
That is exactly why I have a knot in my stomach that refuses to go away. I’ll take the possible violent reaction to an Obama loss after all those polls showed a ‘lead’ than 4-8 years of leftist control over every significant political and cultural institution.

Oct 8, 2008 - 1:14 pm 81. Konyok:

Eggplant,

I like viscous better.

It aptly captures that sickening lag time between events and rhetoric. Even if I were an Obama supporter, I would have gotten queasy at that one’s no-more-golden-parachutes response to the how-do-we-fix-this-most-quickly question.

The elite is caught in amber as events swirl around them …

Inadvertent genius?

Oct 8, 2008 - 1:14 pm 82. phil g:

Old Chief,
I’m 46 and would gladly trade nada penny of SS to opt out of the system altogether or even at a greatly reduced rate to help those who are now too old to opt out.

I guess heavan on earth was too good to be true.

Oct 8, 2008 - 1:18 pm 83. whiskey:

Wretchard –

Obama’s entire training is to simply print more money, cut defense, and hug our enemies. None of these things is likely to work and he is likely to institute Big Man policies ala Kenya, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. Or Indonesia if you prefer.

Big Man suspension of the Constitution, emergency rule by edict, and relying on the cut military to enforce laws. He has a huge number of social and financial programs that he must move, that states are likely to simply ignore:

Gun bans — State Legislatures and Governors are likely to ignore the Federal Gun Ban, and prohibit the FBI/ATF from going into people’s houses to seize their guns. Obama has to move on this because he’s promised Dem groups who form his backers he would.

Affirmative Action — tough times and downsized people from IT/Professional jobs into Best Buy, means people scrapping for jobs. Combined with growing Mexican presence, instantly AA qualified over White men, this is a huge problem. Particularly since the decline of marriage into a minority for women means that White Men do not on the whole benefit from AA — which is why in California and MI and other places, anti-AA measures on the ballot succeeded.

AA has never existed in a prolonged depression — it means at it’s heart throwing the White Male worker majority out so Mexican immigrants, legal or illegal, Blacks, and White Women can take the job. There is no squared circle — merely bare winners and losers, with the losers being the largest demographic slice.

Military weakness invites attack: see Beslan, etc. There are 100+ Pakistani nukes, soon to be joined by Iranian ones. Perhaps Israel will die first. Or perhaps it will be NYC. Either way, a Community Organizer who’s resume is hug-a-thug is not going to inspire fear in factional or tribal leaders with effective control of nukes.

Oct 8, 2008 - 1:19 pm 84. fred:

Yesterday I read the WSJ online thoroughly to try to get an idea of who was selling and WHY. The refrain tended to have a common story: wealthy clients who had made bad bets, their portfolios now in decline, were trying to minimize the damage and get their remaining cash. Ditto for institutional players who also had made bad investments. It was all about a flight to liquidity, here and abroad, that was driving this thing.

The fundamentals of the companies and banks I do follow for my manager are sound. While sales and profits are going to be down, they won’t even be close to the red. They tend to have low debt and very positive free cash flow. And the sense I get from people in the banking industry is that most are lending money, just not to the least credit worthy customers and businesses. There definitely is more caution, as should be the case heading into a recession. Yes, there will be a recession, not a depression.

If you don’t need your money in your retirement portfolios for at least five years, it’s silly and stupid to get out now. Just dollar cost average. I still believe in our economy, and I do believe that there may indeed be enough sensible members of the Democratic Party who will not allow Pelosi and Obama to pitch us over the cliff. Therein lies my hope that the damage can be limited and not be extreme. His tax policies will certainly retard growth, there is no doubt about that. Their energy policy is really subsumed under some version of slavish obedience to Kyoto. That also will retard growth.

The thing I am truly terrified of: foreign policy. This man is going to open the gates to the savages and both we and our allies will be more vulnerable. The promise to end the ballistic missile defense program is truly chilling.

Overall, I believe that enough of the dopes who voted for him will regret it and in four years we will have seen the base of conservatism grow, such that people like Palin, Jindal, and Hunter will be viable candidates. Newt Gingrich is right; you cannot have victory unless and until the base of the party is grown and expanded. It has been contracting for some time.

The Left has been ascendant in America and is lapping at its high water mark. Another Carter lesson is about to take place, but this time I believe socialism will take a serious hit to its long term viability, especially if Islamic terror groups become more bold, animated, and successful.

Oct 8, 2008 - 1:21 pm 85. Old Chief:

@Lifeofthe mind re “The work of our often uncivil servants would be improved.”

Believe me, the American taxpayer neither needs nor deserves a harder working or smarter Civil Service. They would just think of more ways to control your life.

And they would love to have an annual fitness test. Think of all the new people you could hire to write, administer, and evaluate such a test. And then you could proudly announce each year that all your GSs, not to mention your GMs and SESs, were above average.

Yeah!! Bonuses all around, yet one more time.

Oct 8, 2008 - 1:27 pm 86. Al_Batross:

“Maybe it won’t matter if events are beyond short term control” – wretchard.

Good point, and that is where the UK is now. Events are beyond short term control, so it might as well be Brown as anyone else. I do worry about his knack for making things worse, but on the other hand he richly deserves to be at helm, roped there by his own hand, as we are swept onto the rocks.

Oct 8, 2008 - 1:28 pm 87. Pascal:

I guess heavan on earth was too good to be true. — phil g

Not a bug but a feature. It’s ever more worrisome that the more fraud perpetrated to attain _____, the more sneeringly used that _____. There are many things that fill well these blanks. Most on our collective minds right now are houses, or money or power. Filling in the blanks with power presents us with the most troubling thought of all.

Oct 8, 2008 - 1:35 pm 88. sirius_sir:

In the end, it all goes back to the question of judgment.

I question the judgment (and wonder about the affiliation): http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YzI2MWRmYTM3NTYwNmU4MDlkODI4MjM0YmRmZmM4NTY=

Oct 8, 2008 - 1:36 pm 89. buddy larsen:

I’m gonna give my social security back –reject it –i’ll ask that it be sent to VA, maybe. I don’t need it, so to hell with it. And as far as being a burden in my dotage, I’ll never forget that great speedball back in the 60s –i’ll just do another, heavy on the H side –and that’ll be that –no muss no fuss. Screw that million-dollar last month in hospital –screw it. I’ll go when the time comes, under my own colors.

Oct 8, 2008 - 1:38 pm 90. sigintel:

Rezko sentencing date canceled as deal sought

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20081008/D93MFF300.html

Is he singing like a canary?

Oct 8, 2008 - 1:40 pm 91. Pascal:

sigintel.

Many here believe that Rezko’s sentencing has been forestalled to make sure the canary sings. I’m not exactly sure what the prosecutors will accept as the “right” tune; are you? The prosecutors, especially feds, know what’s good for them and work diligently for the old order.

Oct 8, 2008 - 1:51 pm 92. programmer:

Advance Directive – don’t leave home without one.

Oct 8, 2008 - 1:58 pm 93. sgi:

Hilary Rosen (Rock the Vote) today described Obama’s form of government as “revolutionary”. I think McCain should start to use the “s” word.

Oct 8, 2008 - 1:59 pm 94. Alicia:

Obama is cool and beloved of the world. He should be president of the world cool society. Can we quickly create such a position and shuffle the cool empty off to occupy it? Then perhaps Americans can clean up their education systems along with their over-regulating and over-taxing government, so that the next generation of Americans is not so completely moronic as to even consider electing such a cool empty as president of the US.

Oct 8, 2008 - 2:02 pm 95. buddy larsen:

VDH asks a helluva damn question!

Oct 8, 2008 - 2:04 pm 96. wretchard:

I know at least one very smart person who dislikes Obama but has been hoping for the last six months that Obama wins. His fear was that McCain would. The reasoning is a McCain victory, especially a narrow one, would simply keep the old RINOs marking time and pave the wave for an even more powerful Obama challenge or something like it. Therefore he wanted to take the hit and take it now, like a market correction. In a way socialism is to politics what bankruptcy is to the economic markets. It destroys bad ideas by putting them in charge. It gives people with the dumb ideas the chance to kill each other. Unfortunately, it destroys a lot else too. But it is an inescapable teaching moment because it forces people into a literal life and death struggle to recover what they previoiusly took for granted. The tree of liberty may not be watered by blood. But the tree of sanity is perpetually fertilized by occasional encounters with Leftist ideas. The lesson is good for a generation, maybe a generation and a half, before it has to be relearned over again.

It’s a hell of a cure. No doubt the “world” will survive the crisis. But the important thing to remember is that individually, nobody can be sure if he will. But you live without guarantees. I had a dream in which I was trapped in a chamber with water rising to the roof. Right under the surface there were many tunnels leading out. One or several were said to lead to safety. The others were said to be too lengthy to swim, but I had no way of knowing which was which until I took the chance. Would I make it out or would I drown in some tunnel too long to traverse? My dream mechanism was probably restating what I’ve come to believe: that you survive partly by luck, or if you prefer, by grace. No one wants to take the leap, yet because one must go on, ultimately you take a deep breath and choose your path on a mixture of calculation and faith.

I think my friend regards the Obama moment as inevitable. It’s the time when all the nonsense our civilization has come to spout is actually going to put into practice. We literally can’t know what will happen except that it will probably involve ruin, insecurity and unrest, in some measure, caused by the interaction of our stupidity with events. There will be no time for rancor, gloating or hatred. The people you despise will be punished — or rewarded — by events. And the people you admire likewise. Focus on staying alive and if possible, keeping the spark of humanity and divine life guttering inside you. Life is like a box of chocolates. You never know what you’re going to get.

Oct 8, 2008 - 2:06 pm 97. slade:

I prefer the Jack Nicholson synopsis myself:

You can’t handle the truth!

Oct 8, 2008 - 2:10 pm 98. Mark:

Another piece in the puzzle of Barack Obama has been revealed, greatly strengthening the picture of a man groomed by an older generation of radical leftists for insertion into the American political process, trading on good looks, brains, educational pedigree, and the desire of the vast majority of the voting public to right the historical racial wrongs of the land.

wrichard writes:

“a way socialism is to politics what bankruptcy is to the economic markets. It destroys bad ideas by putting them in charge. It gives people with the dumb ideas the chance to kill each other. Unfortunately, it destroys a lot else too.”

From your lips to . . . something:

via ‘American Thinker,’ yet another link in Sen. Obama’s socialist ball and chain:

“The New Party was a radical left organization, established in 1992, to amalgamate far left groups and push the United States into socialism by forcing the Democratic Party to the left. It was an attempt to regroup the forces on the left in a new strategy to take power, burrowing from within. The party only lasted until 1998, when its strategy of “fusion” failed to withstand a Supreme Court ruling, but after, but the membership, including Barack Obama, continued to move the Democrats leftward with spectacular success.”

Oy. His polling numbers are probably going to go up.

Oct 8, 2008 - 2:11 pm 99. Konyok:

As we juggle our favorite doomsday scenarios, I think it prudent to keep things in perspective.

As we ride the financial crisis, hoping that it lands in a recession rather than a depression, we need to keep in mind that it is happening to everybody else as well. (Oh, North Korea might be exempt, having no further to fall.)

The fact of the matter is that the United States is in the best position to recover. All of our enemies and allies are ultimately more vulnerable than we. Volodya, Hugo and Ahmadinejad are absolutely dependent on oil. (Hugo’s Bolivarian comrades are absolutely dependent on Hugo.) The price of crude has fallen nearly 75% in the last two months. Ponder that.
Russia and our allies are much further along the demographic collapse curve than we are. Their powers of recuperation ain’t what they used to be.

The islamists surely still have the will, but falling oil prices and general economic distress deprive them of the means. They depend upon the cover of prosperous globalism.

In a “last man standing” scenario, I think we see him in the mirror.

The short run is scary as hell, but I’m starting to think that the 21st century may turn out to be the American Century 2.0

Oct 8, 2008 - 2:12 pm 100. NahnCee:

Iraq is no longer a campaign issue.

And I can’t help but feeling that this current money crisis is a side-issue, too, at least here in America. We’ll muddle through the recession/depression/whatever it morph’s into. Lots of people won’t have the nest-egg they have been depending upon but other than journalists, I don’t see people selling apples on street corners. Especially if we deport enough Mexicans that Americans can take those jobs back.

I’m not so sure about the rest of the world, financially — Europe, Australia, Russia, China. But that’s sort of their problem because right now, my concern is America and what will happen here in the next year.

We’ve talked here at Belmont Club about the possibility of a civil war, and I think we might, indeed, be approaching a breaking point in America between liberals and conservatives.

I’m reading more and more about hatred flowing from the side of the left towards anyone perceived as not agreeing with them. Increasingly, that hatred is being manifested physically with attacks on both persons and property.

I will undoubtedly be accused of racism but what I’m seeing is an “angry black person” street response to Obama’s candidacy. That blacks feel like this is their shot at the big time and if they win, they expect the world to be handed to them on a platter. Blacks have discovered that if they “get in our faces” hollering, spitting and swearing, and start butting chests, whites will almost always back down. (Which, BTW, is what Obama has asked his troops to do.) I’m reading reports on blogs of white people in political crowds being pushed around and knocked down by women — “angry black women” to be specific.

Now white liberals have adopted those same tactics of intimidation. It seems to me that no matter who gets elected, the results are going to be very bad because of the hatred and the resort to physicality which is becoming the norm in our interactions with each other. If Obama wins, then every black person in America will expect a 50% raise the day after tomorrow just because — call it “reparations a la Obama”. And if McCain wins, then we’re right back to 1970 and “burn baby burn”.

Iraq and Afghanistan will not be issues any more because they’ll be safer than Detroit, and Europe and Russia can fight it out between the two of them because America will be sitting out the next dance, tending to our home fires (literally). Australia may be promoted from Sheriff of the Pacific to replace America as the World’s Cop.

We live in interesting times, but I’m going to place my bets on two philosophical sayings: (1) Greed is Good, and (2) you never get something for nothing. And see how it shakes out thereafter.

Oct 8, 2008 - 2:13 pm 101. Mark Maps:

Politicians trying to control things (and suck a side dollar or two for their own benefit) got us to where we are today. With each iteration of control designed to “enhance” and to manage the side-effects of the last round of contol, the system became more unstable. Negative feedback flips over into positive feedback and the system gyrates wildly. It’s possible/likely the gyrations will now destroy the machine.

Trust flys out the window and no one will lend anonymously to another. The market collapses back almost to the barter system.

Politicians must do that which they are genetically programmed to be unable to do: leave things alone and undo most of what they did to try to control things.

Since they cannot leave things alone, and certainly won’t undo the stupid tricks they demanded of the system, it will fly apart.

Then the question is, how best to pick up the pieces? How to ensure knowledge of the initial system remains so we might rebuild. How best to limit the propaganda about how a free-market system was responsible for the destruction.

Paging Hari Seldon.

Oct 8, 2008 - 2:14 pm 102. slade:

The New Party was reconstituted by Soros et al in 2004 as the Democracy Alliance. Stephanie Power and Z. Brzeznshi both members of the foreign policy arm.

The USA is in “the best position to recover” because of the flexibility of our institutions – the one that has a Treasury Secretary etc. etc. – as will become obvious over the next 6 to 12 months.

Oct 8, 2008 - 2:17 pm 103. Charles:

Corsi is talking to sean hannity on the radio about how Obama has been working with Odinga whose father is connected with Obama’s father going back 40 years. They are both of the Luo tribe in Kenya. They are arrayed against the Kikuyu tribe. Odinga is a muslim who signed an agreement with Kenya’s muslims to extend the sharia law in kenya. Obama was in daily contact with Odinga in 2007 from his senate offic in the run up to the run up to the Kenya election. Those elections were held in december 2007. Obama advised how to win the election.

After the election loss — Odinga formented violence in Kenya. So the Luo raged against the Kikuyu. This included the destruction of hundreds of christian churches. Still Obama supported Odinga.

The reason Jerome Corsi was able to back up his claims with documentation is that Odinga supported have become disillusioned with Odinga and have supplied Corsi with documents.

Corsi is due back in the USA on Saturday.

Oct 8, 2008 - 2:20 pm 104. Konyok:

Wretchard,

It has been my experience that the stupidest things are done by the very smartest people.

Oct 8, 2008 - 2:25 pm 105. slade:

Watch how fast the Fed and Treasury get an auction up and running, a five-year effort according to some, that is now being implemented on a week-to-month schedule.

Oct 8, 2008 - 2:31 pm 106. Konyok:

slade,

My most desperately pollyannish side sees the income as the kitty to fix entitlement reform from. (Analog: settlement of the Resolution Trust accounts = Clinton era prosperity.)

Oct 8, 2008 - 2:56 pm 107. Konyok:

BTW, that institutional flexibility that you spoke of is a reflection of our political culture. A political culture that won’t quickly succumb to Obama’s *revolution.*

(The Middle Kingdom has endured millenia by absorbing barbarians and pathogens. I think that we have achieved a similar critical mass. Only now is the body becoming alert to the threat and the people will generate the needed antibodies.)

Oct 8, 2008 - 3:00 pm 108. slade:

The Best is yet to come Konyok? That would be quite a coup for those who believe in America. I am still too jittery from the month of September, not to mention 2009, but it could happen.

Oct 8, 2008 - 3:03 pm 109. slade:

Oh yeah. The train wreck with reality just around the bend.

I am concerned that there will be domestic “dust-ups” of violence simply from the nature of some of Obama’s supporters. I am not in any position to gauge the magnitude – or the sustaining force of gravitas – but the rumbling is too hyperbolic for my comfort level. I’ll be glad when this year is history.

Oct 8, 2008 - 3:13 pm 110. Konyok:

slade,

Could happen.

The only thing that really, really scares me is the thought that AQ might have the sleeper capability and chooses this moment to push the button.
(I’m still not entire unconvinced that the Florida recount didn’t have a bearing on the timing of 9/11.)

I have sworn not to get upset about hints of civil strife. As penance for my *vanguardist* past, I will have faith in the American people. All the rhetoric aside, the differences between us and our opponents are not of the life and death nature of say, the Luo vs Kikuyu. The reason: institutional flexibility and a pluralist political culture.

Oct 8, 2008 - 3:14 pm 111. cjm:

i had thought of obama being the next carter, but am coming to think he might be the next lbj. a guns and butter approach to solving the current financial crises through inflationary spending policies. an “easy” war that spirals out of control, etc, etc.

as for the blacks, they are being penned into the south by mexicans. fewer and fewer of them in other parts of the country. the tidal outflow of the 40’s retracing its path.

Oct 8, 2008 - 3:16 pm 112. sgi:

Canada has already had their Obama: Pierre Elliot Trudeau, a Liberal Prime Minister. Canada has never been the same since, so with all due respect, I think your friend is wrong, Wretchard. Once people get on the government gravy train, they don’t want to jump off. For example, if Obama can follow through on his plan to socialize health care, people will never give it up.

I bet the Democrat party looked at Canada and saw that there were three viable parties, one of which is a socialist party that can never garner enough votes to govern, although I hear they are doing better this time.

The American people have been tricked into thinking they’re still voting for Democrats, but clearly they are not.

Oct 8, 2008 - 3:19 pm 113. Konyok:

Oh, you can bet your butt that we’re gonna hear “No justice, no peace!”

The thing is that the level of grievance is trivial against the cost of acting on it.

The revolutionary condition always occurs when either a) conditions become unbearable or b) conditions improve just enough from an unbearable state that people can organize and act.

None of these apply to any community in the United States.

BTW, OPEC emergency meeting to support oil. $85 a barrel today.

Oct 8, 2008 - 3:20 pm 114. slade:

The recount and 9/11. Now that’s a comforting thought.

Oct 8, 2008 - 3:25 pm 115. Doug:

Medvedev Endorses Obama
- Sarkozy welcomes Russia plan for security -

“Russia’s successful development is only possible within the context of transparent and equitable international relations,” he said at a conference in Evian attended by the two presidents.

Mr Medvedev said that US attempts to create a unipolar world in both the political and economic field had failed. It was essential to strengthen the legitimacy of the United Nations and regulate the global economy more effectively.

“The example of the US has shown that the move from self-regulating capitalism to financial socialism is only one step,” he added.

Oct 8, 2008 - 3:29 pm 116. Doug:

REPORTER SHOCK CLAIM: OBAMA AIRPLANE SMELLS BAD; CAMPAIGN TREATS REPORTERS POORLY…

Oct 8, 2008 - 3:38 pm 117. elijah:

3rd debate.

Mr. Obama, are you still a Black Liberation Theologist although you no longer attend TUCC?

Has the media asked?

Now, that Mr. Meeks in the above link had some strong convictions related to a root cause of the current financial situation

Oct 8, 2008 - 3:38 pm 118. Lifeofthemind:

Obama is the revenge of the ghost of Woodrow Wilson on steroids. The old white supremacist comes back half black. Somewhere there is laughter.

Oct 8, 2008 - 3:51 pm 119. wretchard:

Canada has already had their Obama: Pierre Elliot Trudeau, a Liberal Prime Minister. Canada has never been the same since, so with all due respect, I think your friend is wrong, Wretchard.

Australia almost had it’s Pierre Trudeau, Gough Whitlam. But Whitlam fell from office after he couldn’t get government to keep working though the damage Whitlam caused, at least in the view of some, was deep and lasting enough.

After 23 years of opposition, the Labor party lacked experience in the mechanics of government. Nevertheless, Whitlam embarked on a massive legislative reform program. In the space of a little less than three years, the Whitlam Government established formal diplomatic relations with the People’s Republic of China; assumed responsibility for tertiary education from the states and abolished tertiary fees;[8] cut tariffs across the board by 25% and abolished the Tariff Board;[9] established the Schools Commission to distribute federal funds to assist non-government schools on a needs basis; introduced a supporting benefit for single-parent families; abolished the death penalty for federal crimes. It also reduced the voting age to 18 years; abolished the last vestiges of the White Australia Policy; introduced language programs for non-English speaking Australians; mandated equal opportunities for women in Federal Government employment; appointed women to judicial and administrative positions; abolished conscription; set up the National Aboriginal Consultative Committee; amalgamated the five separate defence departments; instituted direct federal grants to local governments, and established the Order of Australia (Australia’s own honours system), as well as improved access to justice for Indigenous Australians; introduced the policy of Self-determination for Indigenous Australians; advocated land rights for Indigenous Australians; increased funding for Indigenous Australian’s welfare; introduced the Multiculturalism policy for all new migrants; established Legal Aid, and increased funding for the arts.

The Senate resolutely opposed six key bills and twice rejected them (however they were eventually passed at a joint sitting of parliament). The bills were designed to:

* Institute a universal health insurance system to be known as Medibank (later under the Hawke Labor government, Medibank was split in to Medibank Private and the publicly accessible Medicare).
* Provide citizens of the Australian Capital Territory and the Northern Territory with Senate representation for the first time.
* Regulate the size of House of Representatives electorates to ensure one vote one value (additional measures occurred later, as of the 1984 federal election which also introduced Group ticket voting in the Senate).
* Institute government overseeing of exploitation of minerals and oil.

The repeated rejection of these bills provided a constitutional trigger for a double dissolution (a dissolution of both houses followed by an election for all members of both houses), but Whitlam did not decide to call such an election until April 1974. Instead, he expected to hold an election for half the Senate. To improve his chances of winning control of the Senate, Whitlam offered the former DLP Leader, Senator Vince Gair, the post of Ambassador to Ireland, thus creating an extra Senate vacancy in Queensland which Whitlam hoped Labor could win. This manoeuvre backfired, however, when the Queensland Premier, Joh Bjelke-Petersen, learnt of the scheme and advised the Governor of Queensland to issue the writs for the Queensland Senate election before Gair’s resignation could be obtained.

This “Gair affair” so outraged opponents of the Whitlam government that the Opposition Leader Billy Snedden threatened to block supply in the Senate, although he took no actual steps to do so. Whitlam, however, believing Snedden was unpopular with the electorate, immediately went to the Governor-General, Sir Paul Hasluck, and obtained a double dissolution of both Houses on 11 April, with the election set down for 18 May. Whitlam went to the polls asking for a mandate to “finish the job”, and the ALP campaigned on the slogan “Give Gough a Go”. At the election the Whitlam government was re-elected, though with a reduced majority. The DLP lost all its seats, but Labor failed to win a majority in the Senate. The balance of power in the Senate was now held by two independent Senators. In the short term, this led to the historic joint sitting of both houses, at which the six bills were passed. In the longer term, it contained the seeds of Whitlam’s downfall.

In its second term, the Whitlam Government continued with its legislative reform program, but became embroiled in a series of controversies, including attempts to borrow large amounts of money from Middle Eastern governments (the “Loans Affair”). Whitlam was forced to dismiss Treasurer Jim Cairns and another senior minister, Rex Connor, for misleading Parliament.

Emboldened by these events, a weak economy, and a massive swing to them in a mid-1975 by-election for the Tasmanian seat of Bass, the Liberal-Country Opposition, led by Malcolm Fraser, argued that the Government’s behaviour in breaching constitutional conventions required that it in turn attempt to breach one of the most fundamental, that the Senate would block Supply (that is, cut off supply of Treasury funds).

The crisis of 1975 was precipitated by the Senate’s refusal to pass the Whitlam government’s money (Supply) bill. In October 1975, the Opposition moved to delay consideration of the budget in the Senate. This delay would have resulted in essential public services ceasing to function due to lack of money; that is to say Whitlam attempted to govern without supply and no government had ever attempted such a course of action.[10] Malcolm Fraser warned that the bill would not be passed unless Whitlam called an early election. Whitlam determined to face the Opposition down, and proposed to borrow money from the banks to keep the government running. He was confident that some of the more moderate Liberal Senators would back down when the situation worsened as appropriations ran out during November and December.

The Governor-General Sir John Kerr was concerned about the legality of Whitlam’s proposals for borrowing money, and to govern without Supply, although the Solicitor-General and Attorney-General had scrutinised them for legality.[11]

On 11 November 1975, Kerr in accordance with Section 64 exercised his power and revoked Whitlam’s commission and installed Fraser as caretaker Prime Minister, with instructions to make no policy changes, no appointments, no dismissals and call an immediate federal election. At 2.45 pm Fraser announced he was caretaker Prime Minister and was advising a double dissolution election.

On hearing the proclamation dissolving Parliament, which ended with the traditional ‘God Save the Queen’, Whitlam delivered an impromptu address to the crowd that had gathered in front of the steps of Parliament House. During the speech he labelled Fraser as “Kerr’s cur” and told the crowd: “Ladies and gentlemen, well may we say ‘God Save the Queen’, because nothing will save the Governor-General.”

In the House of Representatives Whitlam moved a motion ‘that this House expresses its want of confidence in the Prime Minister and requests Mr Speaker forthwith to advise His Excellency the Governor-General to call on me to form a government’. This vote of confidence in Whitlam was passed on party lines. News of this vote was delivered personally to Kerr by the Speaker of the House Gordon Scholes, but Kerr refused to see the Speaker until after his Official Secretary had read the notice of double dissolution at Parliament House at 4.45 pm.

In the leadup to the resulting election, Whitlam called upon his supporters to “maintain your rage”. Whitlam ran a bitter and passionate campaign but despite this, the ALP suffered a 7.4% swing against them and Whitlam was to remain as Opposition Leader until his defeat in the 1977 election.

Canada could afford to take a vacation from history because it could rely on the US to hold the ring. But the US can’t do this because it is not only the financial lender of last resort, but the security provider of final recourse. No one will take up the slack; it is the system administrator of the world. An Obama misgovernance won’t mean the US can engage in a long experiment to “find itself”. It will lead directly to spiraling instability, economic crisis and war. The crunch would come fairly quickly but takes years to resolve. And I am not sure it will be resolved in so civil a way as Australia did it. The stakes will be much higher and the dangers much, much greater. But maybe there’s no other way but to let the dynamic play out and hope to come out the other end.

Oct 8, 2008 - 3:51 pm 120. trangbang68:

I was listening to Hugh Hewitt bemoaning the polls and thinking, “how can this guy be this far ahead when the last two presidential elections were 50/50 left/right squeakers?” Did 10% of the Right go Left? It doesn’t figure.
Then I remember reading of Weimar Germany when someone left a wheelbarrow full of Marks outside a store. Someone stole the wheelbarrow and left the worthless money. And then 83% of people voted for Hitler in a plebescite to be Chancellor and it was on. Economic chaos combined with mass hysteria can make nations suck the gas pipe.
I don’t know about Blacks insisting on a 50% pay raise, but the leftists will make impossible demands on Obama if elected and get unruly when he can’t pay the bill.

Oct 8, 2008 - 3:53 pm 121. Doug:

Hitler didn’t even have the NEA, or the “Higher Education” Cabal.

Oct 8, 2008 - 3:57 pm 122. buddy larsen:

Re Wretchard’s ‘let the fever break’ optimism, today’s financial tsumami is a ripple from not just FDR’s New Deal but from the Carternomics disasters, the high teens and twenties % mortgage rates of which largely killed off the old thrift and S&L industries to begin with, which gave us not only the S&L Bust BUT also cleared the field for Fannie (and soon, ostensibly –heh heh–to give Fannie at least some semblance of competition, Freddie), those until-recently harmless (we assumed) dry dusty old Democrat jobs programs. Enron, like F&F being branded onto the public brain as a GOP scandal tho it occured under Clinton’s moral leadership, then gave us the Sarbanes-Oxley over-reaction, which was already killing bottom lines and chasing business overseas BEFORE this latest debacle, but which where needed, that is Fannie & Freddie, was useless because congress had exempted F&F from the new law. This was in 2005, F&F celebrated by having the same congressional exemption pencil in a permission to speculate, after which they immediately, in the two years 2005 thru 2007 (when congress finally could no longer ignore the howling from economists, and sounded recall) injected one trillion dollars worth of bogus-rated paper into the Big Dem leveraging machines on Wall Street –which ran them thru several more layers of up-leveraging and colluded ‘ratings’ before leaving them in the final vaults where they’re now exploding and blowing up every capitalist finance system on the planet.

Point trying to make, too prolixly, is that from way back in the 70s, sweet little old Jimmy Carter’s love for habitats for humanity has just devoured your grandmother’s retirement savings.

Oct 8, 2008 - 3:58 pm 123. Mick:

Could someone can explain to me as a non USA
citizen way McCain not using the facts regard of the sub-prime crisis?
Like the things started by Carter administration and reinforced by President Clinton.
If I correctly know the history.

Surely McCain can rip the liberals apart by
explaining the root course of all this crisis, and not let Pres. Bush take the blame.

Way McCain not expose the danger of the socialist ideology better ?

Oct 8, 2008 - 3:58 pm 124. wretchard:

I’m not an advocate of the “let the fever break” course of action. In my view you must always fight to avoid the known evil. But if the known evil is on you and there is no escape, then the only thing left is to survive it until it burns itself out, as it inevitably will. But going down that road is fraught with danger. Nobody knows if he will personally escape unscathed, with regards to his property or even his life. Obama is not the cause, but the manifestation of a bigger historical madness. Auden’s 1939 captured it perfectly.

Accurate scholarship can
Unearth the whole offence
From Luther until now
That has driven a culture mad,
Find what occurred at Linz,
What huge imago made
A psychopathic god:
I and the public know
What all schoolchildren learn,
Those to whom evil is done
Do evil in return.

Exiled Thucydides knew
All that a speech can say
About Democracy,
And what dictators do,
The elderly rubbish they talk
To an apathetic grave;
Analysed all in his book,
The enlightenment driven away,
The habit-forming pain,
Mismanagement and grief:
We must suffer them all again.

Oct 8, 2008 - 4:15 pm 125. Doug:

Outdated Dogma, Buddy.
The Messiah Will Enlighten us with Catma.

Oct 8, 2008 - 4:25 pm 126. buddy larsen:

doug, SarBox ain’t outdated –if F&F had been under it, as was every other publicly-traded entity registered in USA, then none–none–of these trillions (20 or 25, so far, worldwide, and counting) would’ve disappeared from the globe’s grand building plans.

wretchard, that Auden is COLD, man. reminds me of the ‘bondsman’s whip’ passage in Lincoln’s 2nd Inaugeral. But it is true that USA has some out-of-whack stuff that will out somewhere somehow sometime someplace –it’s been worrying me since the obesity epidemic hit in the late 90s. Some say it’s 50 million tiny little ghosts wanting to be heard.

Oct 8, 2008 - 4:40 pm 127. Bonzo:

Doug, the NEA or anyone else, cannot undo what was properly taught to children.

Please don’t LGF here.

Oct 8, 2008 - 4:42 pm 128. Bob Murphy:

@Wretchard
Your Whitlam article did not mention that his Labor Government also pulled Australian troops out of Vietnam.

Oct 8, 2008 - 4:44 pm 129. Bonzo:

I don’t want to be part of a Zombie army. Prove to me that KOS, KGB and LGF Do NOT have the same DNA.

Oct 8, 2008 - 4:45 pm 130. Joshua:

sgi: I think your friend is wrong, Wretchard. Once people get on the government gravy train, they don’t want to jump off. For example, if Obama can follow through on his plan to socialize health care, people will never give it up.

Not to mention that socialism is for all intents and purposes a secular religion, complete with a mythos (the ongoing struggle of poor vs. rich) and a code of morality that, while quite unlike that of Judeo-Christianity, happens to dovetail with it in just enough critical places – particularly the bit about being your brother’s keeper – to resonate even with people who have no use for raw socialist doctrine.

Oct 8, 2008 - 4:49 pm 131. Konyok:

Interesting tidbit:

http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2008/10/07/politics/fromtheroad/entry4507703.shtml

Oct 8, 2008 - 5:06 pm 132. Zim:

Went to see my wife’s grandfather today who is on his death bed. This is a man who was raised in the great depression, spent 3 years in the Pacific during WW II then came home and raised a family of 11 children by digging rocks out of a rock quarry and running the family farm. The guy was a mountain.

I sat there wondering if I could’ve done any of that, if there are any people left in the US that can. We may shortly be put to the test, I pray we aren’t shown to be lacking.

Oct 8, 2008 - 5:25 pm 133. trangbang68:

Random thoughts,

Year 1 or so of an Obama administration: The government of Pakistan falls in a coup led by Hamid Gul. The armies of the new Al Qaidastan
march into Afghanistan beseiging several undersupplied American bases. As Secretary of State Strobe Talbott frantically tries to muster UN support, Gul cables Obama, “You been selling Wolf Tickets about what you’re going to do to my country. Let’s lift up the hood and see what’s under there…just what I thought, nothing. The helicopters start desperately trying to ferry troops out of Bagram Airbase.

**********************************************

I wonder if Dohrn and Ayers will get to sleep in the Lincoln Bedroom.

Oct 8, 2008 - 5:29 pm 134. whiskey:

Republicans are unlikely to win another Presidency because of demographics, and the obvious Democrat moves.

First, White Men, who form the core of the Republican Party, and the hated “demon” that Democrats loathe and despise, are becoming a minority. White women are too, but they vote Democratic, in the most part.

Because White women are mostly unmarried now. This change first manifested itself … in in 2006. When most adult White women were unmarried.

Secondly, we will see Open Borders. One way to create a new Democratic majority that is permanent is to simply make another 50-60 million Mexicans automatic US citizens, entitled to welfare and Affirmative Action preferences. This will further marginalize the white male working class. Which has been the goal all along.

Thirdly, indoctrination of the schools will create a “New Soviet Man” for Obama and allow him to play Dear Leader with the new generation.

Fourth, street battles, fraud, intimidation, and the ability to project violence through a cadre protected by the police and government, allow Democrats to punish those they hate (White Working Class men) and advantage those they like (White Yuppie Men, various ethnic/racial groups, gays, women).

You can’t get elected, if the Obama Corps beats you up with impunity. As a “racist” then haul you into jail. This is Europe, repeated.

Long term, however, you will see some fairly nasty political battles between the hard core radicals who will force Obama hard-left on many issues, and the white working class which has nowhere else to go. If you thought the South Boston battles over busing was fun, wait until Reparations for Slavery, or a national gun ban get passed.

Oct 8, 2008 - 5:31 pm 135. enscout:

buddy larsen:
“some say it’s 50 million ghosts trying to be heard”

We are certainly our own worst enemy.

Oct 8, 2008 - 5:33 pm 136. Doug:

Obama’s Real Problem With Ayers
Election ‘08:
At an education forum in Venezuela, Bill Ayers showed the real issue is not his terrorist past.
It’s the socialist revolutionary agenda that he and Barack Obama want to impose on the nation’s schools.

Oct 8, 2008 - 5:47 pm 137. If? » The Ethereal Voice:

[...] From Belmont Club… If the events have gone nonlinear, then Barack Obama and John McCain may ironically be struggling for the privilege of sitting in the cockpit of an airplane which has become aerodynamically unstable. In such a situation, second prize is getting the White House. Barack Obama will be to politics what the bailout package has been so far to financial markets. There’s an old joke about dogs who chase cars and can’t figure out what to do when they catch them. Now Presidents and Central Bankers all the world over know how it feels to reach the perches they always dreamed of and finding themselves spectators just the same. [...]

Oct 8, 2008 - 5:51 pm 138. Konyok:

Sure, Zim, there are people like that, they volunteer for service in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Oct 8, 2008 - 5:51 pm 139. Stew:

Konyok
Thanks for that comment. My son is a Marine serving in Afghanistan.
There’s no doubt he’s a mountain.

Oct 8, 2008 - 5:59 pm 140. JFSanders:

“But markets around the world responded with a massive vote of no confidence.”

What is the old saying? Fool me once shame on you. Fool me twice shame, shame on me. The game hasn’t changed by having money shoved at it. And smart money will not enter the field knowing that it is uneven.

“Now maybe they should try handcuffing a couple of dozen senior politicians and sending them to the graybar inn. That might restore confidence in a way untold trillions won’t.”

How do you arrest the Kings? REVOLUTION.

Jim

Oct 8, 2008 - 6:04 pm 141. fred:

I follow Wretchard’s thinking completely on this. First, you fight the good fight against the evil you clearly grasp. But if the process is too far along, you hunker down and survive as best you can.

The activity in our economy right now is not indicative of a Great Depression scenario, trangbang68. How did the polls indicate such a break Obama’s way? Demographic changes. The Reagan Democrats among the WWII Generation are dying off in buckets. They are being replaced by the Baby Boomlet Generation just behind GenX. GenX tends to be more conservative, although not absolutely. The Younger Cohort of the Boomers (I’m one of those)tends to be between 60% and 70% center-right. The Older Boomer Cohort tends to be probably 50% to 60% center-Left.

The long indoctrination process done to the Baby Boomlet Generation favors the Left. And this is a traumatized generation, with most being born into either single parent families or families that experienced divorce. These kids wear their sense of insecurity on their sleeves. So, if they are taught that their country is an imperialist, capitalist monster by their teachers and professors, and they have almost no factually based store of knowledge of history, they will gravitate towards the manifestations of an ideology of entitlement.

This creep I call Obonga disgusts me. He is preying upon these young people shamelessly for his own political gain.

Political trends are not explained by spontaneous generation. They build for some time, and there are various elements part of the recipe that are out there scattered about. The seeds of this thing were being sown long before the arrival of The Messiah of Hope and Change.

A miracle may yet happen on November 5th. Or it may not. The probabilities, from my reading of trends, are not good. But I will do my duty as a citizen and a patriot and vote. I will encourage everyone to vote, especially for McCain. What is at stake is much more than the economy. The greatest harm will be done in the area of foreign policy. Maybe millions of lives hang in the balance. Maybe
Armageddon will happen. I pray not.

Therefore, we must steel ourselves to fight for our country in ways we are not accustomed to. By carrying forward a robust intellectual revival of conservative principles, explaining to our fellow citizens why limited government and a strong military are the only moral and sane postures in this world. I won’t elaborate further on what I think could, in extremis, be the last resort of this struggle. I have been warned by Wretchard, gently, and by others with less subtlety, that this is not a topic we should discuss here. So I won’t.

Still, I, like Konyok, indulge in an optimism about my country in the long term. Like my investment style, I stick to the Graham-Dodd approach: seek value, stick to that principle, and stay the course for the long term. Look at things over a longer horizon, both forward and backwards.

Oct 8, 2008 - 6:17 pm 142. slade:

Accountability – a novel concept. Unfortunately the “Bureaucrats of Penzance” seem to be running the show.

To paraphrase Dennis Miller via Bill “Where is the Rage?” O’Reilly

Oct 8, 2008 - 6:17 pm 143. Habu:

I appreciate the words. I really don’t know your writings or philosophy but thank you.

And just to claify;initially this entire thing must have begun with something I wrote. The result of that “something”, the nexus of my protest is that with no warning at all I could no longer pull up the subsequent threads in the normal fashion.

I asked W if he had pulled the switch. In a poetic way he said yes, but would not tell me why. I pursued the cause to no end. He is stone silent on what I did to deserve being cut off. I am only here through a back channel; his intent was to shut me off.

So that is where it is. It is his way. It is not a way most any person but one with an imperious attitude would take, but he has shown this behavior before.

I have pointed out that if it can happen to me it can happen to any of you at any time and you will probably have no idea why.

People set blogs up for all sorts of reasons and those that take comments should expect to receive them. I know I had not used abusive language or consistently attacked any one poster so I am in the dark as are all of you.

And my point about how much courage it would take for the contributors to ask, “what did Habu do? isn’t the same as fighting in a firefight or serving with General Custer, but not ONE person has asked him. Some have courage and others do not. Some need the validation they get here, others do not. But the group dynamic of not a single soul asking why strongly suggests that this is a group of sycophants in desperate need of validation. In horror many of you look on at my continued attempts to get an answer and come to the conclusion that I must be a brigand to pursue an answer when the king has made it apparent that he will not give one. I say how puling a group has gathered to look on and say nothing.

Oct 8, 2008 - 6:20 pm 144. Habu:

Perhaps a bit of history of the Belmont Club is in order.

About five or six years ago it was the salon to be read and to contribute to. It was a hit. The Wretchard closed it, many say because it got too folksy. It was reopened but not before The Elephant Bar Blog had opened and everyone had gone over for free and open discussion.

W’s contributors fell to 5 to 10 per thread.. Sometimes none. They stayed there for years.

Meanwhile the Elephant Bar Blog was growing and growing. They have some great contributors and despite my locking horns with several of the alpha contributors in very contentious ways the owner has never barred me. Never. They talk the talk and walk the walk. There’s a female contributor over there who has taken every blow a person could take but she dusts herself off and comes back with her say. She is very bright and one of the most effective Platonist questioners you’ll ever encounter.

The owners writing has grown very, very good equaling anything on the internet,. And he is a successful businessman with other full time duties. His main contributor is a formidable debater, another highly , and I’m not using hyperbole, successful businessman, loaded with facts and when necessary a sharp tongue, but used judiciously (usually on me, we’re not tight friends).

The point is this is W’s modus operandi. Imperious behavior, no explanations ever offered, simply bend you knee and genuflect. I was never asked to do any of that at The Elephant Bar. And if it comes to foul language or other ad hominem attacks, yes you’ll get warned , usually by the contributors that you are out of bounds. But you always know where you stand.

Buddy can tell ya …he was there

Oct 8, 2008 - 6:23 pm 145. Konyok:

My stepson is deploying to Afghanistan a couple of days after Thanksgiving.

“What a rotten kid!” I thought when I first started dating his mom. Foul mouthed, disrespectful and way too bright for his own good. It seemed the only thing that mattered to him was his video games. Needless to say, he was a major obstacle to our relationship.

The thing that aggravated me most of all was his profound incuriosity. It was impossible to talk with him because he knew it all and was thoroughly indoctrinated.

So, imagine my surprise when the slug came out of the cocoon to reveal himself to be a remarkable young man.

His eyes are wide open, he knows that the situation there is deteriorating. He is confident that Petraeus will straighten things out.

That is who we are. I’m sure that Zim’s grandpa was a firecracker in his youth, too.

Yes, we are living in the age of gene splicing and test tube babies, but, the acorn still doesn’t fall too far from the tree.

Oct 8, 2008 - 6:34 pm 146. NahnCee:

Habu – just leave if you’re so unhappy.

Go.

You’re bringing absolutely nothing to the party the way you are now.

Long drooling personal drivel which has nothing to do with anything.

Go start your own blog where YOU can be imperious, all-seeing and all-knowing. Some of us might even go there to see what it’s like.

But you are rapidly edging over into ignore-him-like-Cedarford territory the way you’re posting now.

Oct 8, 2008 - 6:57 pm 147. Stephen:

Is there anything so boring as another person’s hurt feelings?

Oct 8, 2008 - 7:12 pm 148. Doug:

STANLEY KURTZ:
ACORN played a major role in precipitating the subprime crisis.
“Planting Seeds of Disaster”

MICHELLE MALKIN:
Fraud allegations keep piling up.
“Thug Thizzle to Election Day”

ANDREW C. MCCARTHY:
The years he won’t discuss may explain the Ayers tie he keeps lying about.
“Why Won’t Obama Talk About Columbia?”

Oct 8, 2008 - 7:15 pm 149. Doug:

Ayers Tried to Kill Us
John M. Murtagh
Fire in the Night
The Weathermen tried to kill my family.

During the April 16 debate between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, moderator George Stephanopoulos brought up
“a gentleman named William Ayers,” who “was part of the Weather Underground in the 1970s. They bombed the Pentagon, the Capitol, and other buildings. He’s never apologized for that…”
—
FREE THE PANTHER 21; THE VIET CONG HAVE WON; KILL THE PIGS.

For the next 18 months, I went to school in an unmarked police car. My mother, a schoolteacher, had plainclothes detectives waiting in the faculty lounge all day. My brother saved a few bucks because he didn’t have to rent a limo for the senior prom: the NYPD did the driving. We all made the best of the odd new life that had been thrust upon us, but for years, the sound of a fire truck’s siren made my stomach knot and my heart race.

Oct 8, 2008 - 7:26 pm 150. hustleandfloe:

I appreciate this analysis. Makes sense, esp. re: If the events have gone nonlinear, then Barack Obama and John McCain may ironically be struggling for the privilege of sitting in the cockpit of an airplane which has become aerodynamically unstable.”

However, this appears to be a different approach from that of the one you highlighted here: http://fallbackbelmont.blogspot.com/2008/03/mccain-speech.html

He did not couch his solutions in terms of mitigating systemic risk. That is, in my opinion, the only way to do this since the markets will always be in control.

The have been speaking in 1:1 ratio to the news telling us what they will tolerate. Ex: 700B passed, Dow drops = you haven’t even touched me yet. Dow continues to drop and credit mkts stay frozen after hearing “We need this right now!” = 700b is a decent start but I’m not signing up for the correction that includes failed banks.

How do you reconcile?

Oct 8, 2008 - 7:50 pm 151. phil g:

Habu,
Is it that time to go all drama queen again? I’ve seen you crash and burn on the old Belmont Club, Yankee Farm, and now Belmont again…seems to be a pattern.

Oct 8, 2008 - 7:53 pm 152. Habu:

Nanhcee,
You offered similar advice last night.
I am not unhappy, but I would like to know what I did. It’s really that simple. If he would yake off the blackout and explain what I did I’d be gone. Heck I’ll be gone in another day anyway. I’m not use to being with cowards. That’s not used in the prejorative it’s simply a fact. As i said most of you need this site for validation of you being.

It is breathtaking how much bowing an scraping you and the other “men” on this blog are willing to take. All talk, no guts, not one person.

Nanhcee, you’re not the Student Council President, or the hall monitor. You obviously still work for a living since you post only in the evening. Good luck on handling the financial crisis. Any worries there? Mortgage paid off I hope. Kids education money in the bank? I wish you well.

Well perhaps this blog is good training for you folks since when comrade Obama takes over you will be in a world of hurt and knowing how to be subservient will serve you well.

Anyway, good luck. In another day or so I’ll get tired of chasing this. I really have no respect for any of you anymore, knowing the huffing and puffing and singing God Bless America means nothing. The first element of leadership is courage and there isn’t an ounce of it on this blog. Not an ounce.

Oct 8, 2008 - 7:56 pm 153. phil g:

Buddy,
Your 3:58 post is brilliant…that road is always paved with those good intentions.

Oct 8, 2008 - 8:00 pm 154. Habu:

phil g:
Phil, if you got cut off for reasons unknown wouldn’t you be the least bit curious?

I really should let you ladies alone to your mutual hand holding

Oct 8, 2008 - 8:00 pm 155. Tony:

Back in ancient history, it must be at least two weeks ago by now, Wretchard asked about an “inflection point” and some of us suggested it would be when Euro banks and the crises of the rest of the world’s largest economies starting suffering financial ischemia like the constricted heart of the world’s economy U-S-A. Specifically, the inflection point would be when such events starting hitting the MSM front pages, as they did almost immediately.

If American voters see that the financial crisis is global, rather than Republican, McCain might still have a chance to pull our bacon out of the fire.

Oct 8, 2008 - 8:01 pm 156. enscout:

Habu:

My guess is that our host sees you as hijacking the thread on many occasions.

Now, get back on your meds, get some rest and come back when you can contribute to the dialog responsibly.

We miss your better self.

Oct 8, 2008 - 8:11 pm 157. Leo Linbeck III:

I have a friend who is CEO of a regional bank. He told me a story today that left me scratching my head.

A customer walked into the bank last Friday and withdrew $5 million. In cash. That’s a lot of Franklins. He then took his stack of cash from the teller’s window, walked across the hall, and put it in a safe deposit box.

Go figure. A guy with nerve enough to make $5M, who has now lost his nerve.

L3

Oct 8, 2008 - 8:21 pm 158. mika2k1:

I can’t help but feeling that this current money crisis is a side-issue,
==

The cascading collapse of America will continue unless the American ship of state changes course. America must change its economy into one that does not hemorrhage dollars on supplies of jihadi oil energy. Americans also need to start producing more of things of real value. Military Keynesianism, the $1.4 trillion per year in taxes spend on military welfare, must end.

Oct 8, 2008 - 8:23 pm 159. mika2k1:

Habu,

Without self discipline people lose their teeth.
You have good insight. You have the heart in the right place. You can contribute more to W’s blog than this nonsense.

Oct 8, 2008 - 8:33 pm 160. Doug:

(from McCarthy link above)\
Precisely because they shared the same views, Obama and Ayers also worked comfortably together on the board of the Woods Fund. There, they doled out thousands of dollars to Jeremiah Wright’s Trinity Church to promote its Marxist “black liberation theology.”

Moreover, they underwrote the Arab American Action Network (AAAN) founded by Rashid Khalidi, a top apologist for Yasser Arafat. As National Review’s David Pryce-Jones notes, Khalidi once directed WAFA, the terrorist PLO’s news agency. Then, like Ayers, he repackaged himself as an academic who rails at American policy. The AAAN, which supports driver’s licenses and public welfare benefits for illegal aliens, holds that the establishment of Israel was an illegitimate “catastrophe.”

Khalidi, who regards Israel as a “racist” “apartheid” state, supports Palestinian terror strikes against Israeli military targets.
It’s little surprise that he should be such a favorite of Ayers, the terrorist for whom “racism” and “apartheid” trip off the tongue as easily as “pass the salt.”

And it’s no surprise that the like-minded Obama would be a fan. Khalidi, after all, has mastered the Arafat art of posing as a moderate before credulous Westerners while (as Martin Kramer documents) scalding America’s “Zionist lobby” when addressing Arabic audiences.

Oct 8, 2008 - 8:34 pm 161. mika2k1:

..taxes spent on military welfare, must end..

Oct 8, 2008 - 8:36 pm 162. outa my league:

The Broad Brush Boomer Bashing by some posters here is puzzling to me. What’s all this biz about Boomers staring into the abyss and dreading death? Speak for yourself, youngsters.

Me and my Boomer friends and our spouses look forward to going to church and singing in the choir and worshipping God. Saith the Apostle, “For me to live is Christ [to live], and to die is gain.”

I believe Sarah and Mac are going to win. Sure, I would have preferred a younger Conservative instead of the Arizona Muddle of the Roader that the MSM foisted on us.

But then, we wouldn’t have gotten Sarah in the deal if we’d had our druthers and gotten Romney or Thompson, would we?

The semi-ultimate irony in this whole political “black swan” episode is that the MSN meddled with the Pubbie Primaries in favor of McCain, and also got Palin for their pains.

Oct 8, 2008 - 8:40 pm 163. fred:

Panics occur because people are too lazy to analyze correctly the causes and mechanics of why markets sometimes go Bear. Sometimes the meta narratives in our heads trump the finer details of what is actually the case. Some people also have ADD and also have lots of money.

There are so many factors at work today to make sure that a depression does not occur that it beggars belief for people to panic. I’m not saying it cannot happen. Anything is possible, but when you assign probabilities you should know something about how markets work and how they are interconnected with the real economy.

One of the major reasons why the housing bubble burst was that prices for homes had gone to unsustainable levels. In comparison, at the same time stocks were not at all overvalued. In fact, a lot of them were bargains then and are even more of a bargain now. The other major reason for why things go out of sorts were energy prices.

Energy prices and home prices are falling back, which is a good thing in the long run for the economy. My hope, however, is that oil prices do not fall below $60. If they stay around or slightly above that level the economic incentive to increase supply is still there, which in the long run is really the best solution.

Our government and other governments are injecting liquidity into the system. Plus, there is no Smoot-Hawley Act. Plus, we are not on the Gold Standard. And other things besides.

What truly does scare me are the so-called economic policies of a President Obama. They define retardation and will result in a stagnant economy that will be hard pressed to grow its way out of this mess.

Oct 8, 2008 - 8:42 pm 164. Habu:

mika2k1:

He won’t lift the block on me getting on. Yes, I know I’m on now but it’s through the back door which isn’t and can noy remain the way I come to the blog. It is his right to block me , I just wanted to know why but it’s obvious he’s not talking.

So instead I’ll just move on to another site.
I hope I gave the crowd their monies worth.

SOmeday when he blocks somebody else they’ll wonder too. Take care. H.

Oct 8, 2008 - 8:49 pm 165. Leo Linbeck III:

My nominations for the most absurd statements of the second debate:

McCain: $300 billion to buy down mortgages. Take $1,000 from every man, woman, and child in the US and provide a direct subsidy to those who own houses too expensive for them to afford. From a Republican.

Obama: Warren Buffett as possible Treasury Secretary. Put the wealthiest, most rapacious poker player in the US and put him in charge of the biggest pile of chips. From a Democrat.

Whew. That was one heck of a wormhole I just got sucked through.

L3

Oct 8, 2008 - 8:50 pm 166. Habu:

From the American Thinker:
Obama belong to New Party a Socialist Party.
Another piece in the puzzle of Barack Obama has been revealed, greatly strengthening the picture of a man groomed by an older generation of radical leftists for insertion into the American political process, trading on good looks, brains, educational pedigree, and the desire of the vast majority of the voting public to right the historical racial wrongs of the land.

The New Party was a radical left organization, established in 1992, to amalgamate far left groups and push the United States into socialism by forcing the Democratic Party to the left. It was an attempt to regroup the forces on the left in a new strategy to take power, burrowing from within. The party only lasted until 1998, when its strategy of “fusion” failed to withstand a Supreme Court ruling. But dissolving the party didn’t stop the membership, including Barack Obama, from continuing to move the Democrats leftward with spectacular success.

Erick Erickson, editor of RedState, explained fusion in a Human Events article:

Fusion is a pretty simple concept. A candidate could run as both a Democrat and a New Party member to signal the candidate was, in fact, a left-leaning candidate, or at least not a center-left DLC type candidate. If the candidate — let’s call him Barack Obama — received only 500 votes in the Democratic Party against another candidate who received 1000 votes, Obama would clearly not be the nominee. But, if Obama also received 600 votes from the New Party, Obama’s New Party votes and Democratic votes would be fused. He would be the Democratic nominee with 1100 votes.

The fusion idea set off a number of third parties, but the New Party was probably the most successful. A March 22, 1998 In These Times article by John Nichols showed just how successful. “After six years, the party has built what is arguably the most sophisticated left-leaning political operation the country has seen since the decline of the Farmer-Labor, Progressive and Non-Partisan League groupings of the early part of the century …. In 1996, it helped Chicago’s Danny Davis, a New Party member, win a Democratic congressional primary, thereby assuring his election in the majority-black district …. The threat of losing New Party support, or of the New Party running its own candidates against conservative Democrats, would begin a process of forcing the political process to the left, [Joel] Rogers argued.”

Fusion, fortunately for the country, died in 1997. William Rehnquist, writing for a 6-3 Supreme Court, found the concept was not a protected constitutional right. It was two years too late to stop Obama.

J. Brown of Politically Drunk on Power has dug up multiple documentary sources (with hyperlinks) proving that Barack Obama was a member of the New Party, despite alleged attempts to cover up his tracks by scrubbing evidence. He or she deserves tremendous praise for doing this detective work.

Obama’s career bears many signs of being helped along by the radical left. At the critical moment when he entered electoral politics, he was part of a movement to take over an established political party and direct it to the task of building a socialist America.

Oct 8, 2008 - 8:54 pm 167. Leo Linbeck III:

fred,

I share your fundamental optimism, and agree that a lot of right things are being done. But there are also a lot of wrong things being done too, and it’s hard to tell what the score is at this point in the game.

There is a point at which joining in a panic becomes the only rational decision. If I’m in the middle of a cattle drive and a stampede starts, it might be entirely rational to not fight the panic, but just turn my horse around and run with the bulls.

By injecting massive liquidity into the system, the Fed and DoT have lowered the likelihood of a deflationary spiral. But the risk is still there; they’re trying to catch a falling knife, and there is not a lot of margin for error.

Obama’s policies, while scary, are not nearly as scary as Pelosi’s policies that will get signed into law by Obama. The question I wish McCain would ask him about taxes is this:

Senator Obama, you have said that your revenue plan will not raise taxes on anyone earning less than $250,000 per year. But given that bills are written by Congress, and Congress will likely be controlled by your party, would you pledge to veto any bill that raises taxes on people earning less than $250,000?

The answer to that question would be interesting to hear…

L3

Oct 8, 2008 - 9:04 pm 168. fred:

Leo,

Don’t hold your breath for an honest answer to THAT question from Obama. Many months ago, before I got more exposed to his history, I was more inclined to think, that while he is most definitely Leftist, he was not a serial liar. But now I think I cannot trust him to be honest at all.

Habu just posted some information about the guy and the organization he belonged to. He cannot be trusted. Also, Nancy Pelosi, years ago, once belonged to the Democratic Socialists of America. She had to resign in order to accept a position as House Minority Leader.

They’re lying to all of us about everything. I’ve never seen anything quite like it in American politics in my lifetime.

Oct 8, 2008 - 9:11 pm 169. peterike:

T.S. Eliot. Summing it up in four lines.

She tells them of Evil and Sin, and other unpleasant facts.
They constantly try to escape
From the darkness outside and within
By dreaming of systems so perfect that no one will need to be good.

Oct 8, 2008 - 9:22 pm 170. slade:

The Broad Brush Boomer Bashing by some posters here is puzzling to me. – outa my league

As an economist, I make a poor social scientist, but it seems to me that the “Boomer Bashing” is a remnant of the David Brooks theme developed in Bobos in Paradise (2000), bobos being short for Bourgeois Bohemians.

From the wiki entry:

Brooks’s thesis in Bobos in Paradise is that this “new upper class” represents a marriage between the liberal idealism of the 1960s and the self-interest of the 1980s. Critics of Brooks’s thesis argue that he does not provide an argument as to how this elite is new, and that the bobo trend merely represents changing tastes and preferences of a preexisting upper class (not a product of social mobility).

Oct 8, 2008 - 9:24 pm 171. Nortius Maximus:

Habu:

It’s Wretchard’s place. That you can (as I would guess) use straightforward Internet technology to end-run Wretchard’s ban does you no credit.

If I thought for a moment that you were some prisoner of conscience in some hellhole part of the world, I might have sympathy. I don’t think you are that, and consequently I’d, as have others here, suggest you pack it in.

It’s a big Internet. Have a nice day — somewhere else.

Oct 8, 2008 - 9:25 pm 172. Doug:

U.S. May Take Ownership Stake in Banks
Treasury Dept. Would Hope to Spur Lending

The Treasury Department is considering taking ownership stakes in many U.S. banks to try to “restore confidence”, according to government officials.

Oct 8, 2008 - 9:27 pm 173. Leo Linbeck III:

fred,

The thing that is most striking to me about Obama is the complete disconnect between his rhetoric and his past actions. This may be what you’re referring to when calling him a serial liar, although other explanations are possible (both pathological and non-pathological).

In my view, this behavior is the direct result of his legal training. I have personally experienced a lawyer looking me in the eye and telling me a bald-faced lie in an attempt to give an advantage to their client. These lawyers justify their behavior as a necessary part of the adversarial process; the fundamental logic is that the end (providing the best representation for their client) justifies the means (telling a lie).

It is this habit – which must be taught in law schools, given its prevalence – which angers non-lawyers more than any other behavior. But it often works, either because of boldness or misdirection. That success reinforces its value, and the cycle continues.

This same behavior is easily observed in Biden as well. Another lawyer.

FWIW.

L3

Oct 8, 2008 - 9:30 pm 174. peterike:

Eliot again, elegiacally. Sorry for the poetic intrusion. ‘Night all.

We shall not cease from exploration
And the end of all our exploring
Will be to arrive where we started
And know the place for the first time…

Quick now, here, now, always—
A condition of complete simplicity
(Costing not less than everything)
And all shall be well and
All manner of thing shall be well
When the tongues of flame are in-folded
Into the crowned knot of fire
And the fire and the rose are one.

Oct 8, 2008 - 9:33 pm 175. slade:

In 2004 Aerosmith released an excellent blues-based album titled Honkin’ on Bobo. I never saw a history for the title but I have to assume it is pure attitude, just listening to the music.

Oct 8, 2008 - 9:34 pm 176. OldSalt:

Watch, it’ll happen again in the next debate. Obama will boast that Obama was right to oppose the War, and McCain will boast that McCain was right to support the Surge. And once again McCain will sink farther down in the polls. McCain will sink and sink, because he is afraid to stand up and fight on key issues and tell the voters the hard truths they don’t want to hear. – M.S

The Dems were plenty happy to end the notion that “politics ends at the water’s edge” and kick the war as a political football into play. They’ve even enjoyed promising that Bush and his Administration will be “investigated” and even “prosecuted”.

Fair enough. Then what McCain and the Republicans SHOULD BE asking the country is this: ”

We were attacked on 9/11. We were at war, and a courageous President immediately recognized that fact, and put boots on the ground in enemy territory within 30 days. The Democrats first supported, then de-supported that President and the troops in the field after we engaged. Regardless of what we think about the war strategy, there has not been a single major terrorist on US soil, or overseas against American citizens, for that matter, since 9/11.”

1) Who led the response that resulted in this situation, i.e. a demonstrably safer America?

2) Who opposed this effort, from every area from intelligence gathering to strategy to implementation?

3) What have the Democrats done in 8 years to make this country safer from the bad guys, from the real guys with guns and bombs and motivation to strike America in it’s heart?

(Answer key: 1) Bush, and GOP Congressional leaders, 2) Democrats, particularly DNC Congressional leaders and Presidential candidates, 3) Nothing, zip, zero, nadda. They didn’t even volunteer anything resembling a plan of action until after the 2004 election.)

The Democrats, including Clinton in the 90’s “jawed-jawed” and as a result, we got “war …war”. A selfless, courageous President took this country to war, and produced a safe America and measure of peace.

Just imagine what would have happened if the country had pulled together, how many fewer body bags would have resulted, how much shorter the war could have been, if the Democrats matched their Patriotic and caring rhetoric with actions. If the Democrats had been focused on destroying the enemy instead of destroying Bush, the war might be over.

What have the Democrats done for America? They’ve produced more America body bags.

Oct 8, 2008 - 9:36 pm 177. buddy larsen:

yep –they’re systematically lying, and they hate, really hate, anyone who opposes them. And they have the house & senate leadership already. As Obama said of McCain a few weeks ago, “he has NO idea what he’s up against”.

fred, do you have any idea, any idea at all, why we are still at this late date laboring under the ‘mark-to-market’ rule, which is literally busting out banks on arbitrary technicalities? At bottom it’s the loan-to-value ratio that can’t stop growing until the value stops shrinking –which it cannot do so long as mark-to-market is revaluing assets according to the latest foreclosure fire-sale prices that have no relevance to reality in any conditions other than today’s.

Oct 8, 2008 - 9:39 pm 178. fred:

They are at war with America, and are willing to do whatever it takes to insure defeat, because it helps them to get political power. The nakedness of this is just stunning – and they get away with it too.

I am sensing that there is a split in the Democratic Party going on now. It’s being hushed up, but it’s there. And if the Leftist hot heads push the envelope on some of things they want to go off on, well, I would not be surprised that there will be at least a dozens of their senators and maybe fifty to seventy of their congressmen who will bolt and not support these actions.

What worries me the most is the ongoing evidence of the stupidity and laziness of many citizens in this country. A symptom of a deteriorating educational system.

Oct 8, 2008 - 9:44 pm 179. Asher Abrams:

Second to OldSalt and Buddy Larsen. I hate to sound like a partisan hack, but the more I watch the Dems, the more I … find myself sounding like a partisan hack. It’s as if they’re threatened by the idea of national greatness.

Peterike, the TSE intrusion is welcome.

Oct 8, 2008 - 9:44 pm 180. Dave:

Fred: On the oil front I would like to see refiners get some anti-trust slack. Let them sign long-term (30-35 year) contracts
at $80 to $90 a barrel for ANY AND ALL crude oil or similar refineable substance produced in the United States or contiguous states.

Once the equipment gets manufactured we will be running a surplus before you can say “Santa Rita Number 1″. In fact we will be soaking the motorist in order to pay producers to keep it in the ground until needed.

Strong medicine, especially that ANY AND ALL
bit. But most necessary in order to avoid having increased production result in lowered revenue for the producers. (That latter is what started our over-dependence upon imports.)

Conceded, your $60 a barrel is plenty for business as usual. However, I do not want business as usual, I want to demolish decades of (*&^%$)#@ and do it with overkill. And to be sure that when the contracts finally expire the producers can be debt-free if they so choose.

I know that this is similar to autarky, but that cannot be helped so far as I can see.

Oct 8, 2008 - 9:48 pm 181. Asher Abrams:

For some reason today I found myself thinking of the left, and of this Robert Frost poem -
http://www.americanpoems.com/poets/robertfrost/12162

The traveler’s eye picked up a turtle train,
between the dotted feet a streak of tail,
And followed it to where he made out vague
But certain signs of buried turtle’s egg;
And probing with one finger not too rough,
He found suspicious sand, and sure enough,
The pocket of a little turtle mine.
If there was one egg in it there were nine,
Torpedo-like, with shell of gritty leather
All packed in sand to wait the trump together.
‘You’d better not disturb any more,’
He told the distance, ‘I am armed for war.
The next machine that has the power to pass
Will get this plasm in it goggle glass.’

Oct 8, 2008 - 9:49 pm 182. cedarford:

Tony – If American voters see that the financial crisis is global, rather than Republican, McCain might still have a chance to pull our bacon out of the fire.

Unfortunately, the world’s financial calamity CAN be traced back to Reaganite and Thatcherite dereg of the American and Brit financial markets. That’s where the cancer was started, and most of the damage from bad paper was generated occured.

McCain is hardly the best vehicle to pull anything out of the fire, let alone our bacon.

McCain likes to brag about the 18 billion he has saved battling/fighting/attacking/shooting down/conquering (pick the military verb or adverb of your choice). Or how as a Lifetime Senator, he saved 6 billion in “Pentagon waste”

That’s nice, but McCain was part of the 140 billion S&L bailout and a party to banker favors from that dereg bailout. He was a pricipal booster of air and electric dereg (Air travel may be cheaper, but it is a detested process for many. Electric rates tripled after dereg.) The main beneficiaries of telecomm dereg were the Republican and Dem insiders in DC that used their power status to scoop up FCC allocations and become megamillionaires.

McCain didn’t say “boo” about Fannie and Freddie and his “dear friends” in the Democrat Senate being thick as theives with them – until a couple of years ago when he raised a half-hearted stink. Even when he denounced Obama for F&F contributions, he said it was second to the Chairman…but refused to name his “good friend” Chris Dodd, who he has palled around with for 26 years.

You cannot count on this old Senate geezer to pull any bacon out when he endorsed spending 800 billion on Iraq, 760 billion on Homeland security, and tax cuts for the rich that doubled our national deficit in the Bush II Era.(by 3.8 trillion). This is the Free Trade and Globalization lover that does not care that we have a 980 billion trade deficit and half our manufacturing jobs gutted and sent to CHina.

It is best for the nation that this treacherous RINO return to his beloved Senate and his 60 or so “dear friends” there, mostly Democrat. It is best because the country needs a break from Big Government, theocratic, whores to the Rich, warmongering Republicans. It will be on Obama and his team to see if they fail as liberals and incompetents like Jimmy Carter, or they govern moderately and reasonably well like Bill Clinton did. For all our sakes, let’s hope that Obama and his people are far better than the Bushies..

And the public needs to put some distance between themselves and the stench of the Bushies and Neocons.

If Obama’s team fails, then the rebuilt Republicans, if they are able to expand their base past Fundies, bankers, and military worshippers – will have greatly benefited from their days out of power. It will take them shedding for good – Reagan voodoo economics, the Neocons, intolerant Southerners calling the shots. And being honest about why the 1994 Republican Revolution and their once-beloved “Dubya, Hero Protector and New Churchill” – failed so badly.

Oct 8, 2008 - 9:56 pm 183. Dave:

Buddy Larsen: I see they finally let you out of the stockade for your AWOL. Now is time for you to redeem yourself.

Can you (Fred? Slade? others?)get a handle on demand for borax? Not just the spot price, etc. but actually how orders are going.

Reason is that borax products have some 250 to 300 broad areas and 20 times that number of specific applications. So if demand is strong we have economic expansion and if it tapers off we have recession. And if the bottom drops out a 30s depression.

Sure would like to know what is happening now and in the coming months.

And if you are ever in Vegas, I’ll try to drive you to Boron and get you educated on a little-known but critical part of history.
(It was really two horses and 18 mules. 20-Mule Team just sounded better.)

Oct 8, 2008 - 10:00 pm 184. Robert:

Lamont said:

I’m a voter, and I’m old. There are about fifty or sixty million like me. Any politician that TOUCHES my social security benefits will get FIRED. You have to find a solution that’s politically palatable, or polticians won’t touch it, no matter how much sense it makes.

The Entitlements crash require either raising taxes or cutting benefits. What if the young who pay through the nose for your benefits refuse to pay? Remember, it is the young who FIGHT WARS.

Oct 8, 2008 - 10:03 pm 185. Dave:

Also Buddy: Was just up in Ohio for a reunion.
In telling some modern-day USAF officers how WWII tactics got improvised and tested, I heard the following:

The boys were headed back to Foggia, Italy.
Came the transmission; “Are there any Little Friends? We lost an engine, late to target, now flak damage, fighters ahead. Are there any Little Friends?”

Without breaking radio silence, two P-38s waggled their wings at each other and headed back to Ploesti. Doing a tight weave at the superior speed of a P-38 they zipped through the fighters, enganging about 20 targets on the way. Then reversed course and did it again.

Secret was that they did not try to shoot the enemy down. Instead they aimed short bursts
above and slightly ahead of their aircraft, causing their pilots to dodge.

They never saw the bomber but as they leaned their mixtures (to the point of burning valves) in order to get home, they heard;
“We are clear of target area and fighters.
Thank you Little Friends”.

Back at base they got their behinds chewed for leaving formation and practicing unauthorized techniques. Some things never change.

Oct 8, 2008 - 10:16 pm 186. fred:

Dave,

I don’t generally follow commodities, since I am mainly focused on banking and retail sectors. However, you’ve peaked my curiosity and tomorrow I will check on borax at online WSJ.

The epicenter of most of the economic woes in the country is where it all began back in 2005, where the housing market first started to collapse: California. If ever there was a state so poorly run that it’s the poster child for how not to do things, it is that state. Michigan is not very well run either. Ohio not far behind. All of these states seem to do things ass backwards. In the face of a clear need to keep jobs and expand the economy THEY RAISE TAXES and they make it harder for businesses to grow and succeed there.

Oct 8, 2008 - 10:18 pm 187. buddy larsen:

C4, you can call it a market-failure if you want, but the truth is, the failure wasn’t market, it was government. Specifically, corruption in the GSEs and pie-bald lunacy in the SEC, made possible if not inevitable by an administration forced by an incredibly powerful media/Democrat oppo to look the other way on damn near everything in order to find space to cobble together a capacity to fight the war.

As far as Obama-conomy, i’ll bet you a thousand dollars here and now, proceeds to either’s favorite charity, that unemployment, inflation, and long bond rates will be twice at the end of Obama’s first term over what they are today.

Asher, re frost poem, that’s a helluva insight –and a true one i think –

Oct 8, 2008 - 10:22 pm 188. buddy larsen:

dave –that P-38 is THE art-deco masterpiece of warbirds –top USA ace Richard Bong was a Lightning man –

Some say Copper is the best single forecaster of growth –and BTW Freeport McMoran –best-of-breed copper stock trade –(FCX) –was up 10% today in a crappy market.

Oct 8, 2008 - 10:35 pm 189. slade:

Dave – see ticker RTP on http://www.morningstar.com

It’s down.

Oct 8, 2008 - 10:48 pm 190. buddy larsen:

I recall one of Bush’s big speeches before the congress –was it the 2nd Inaugural? –when his lament that his inability to have made any progress with fiscal repair of the big entitlement bust headed our way in the near future, was greeted by the entire left side of the chamber leaping to its feet and cheering –not the president’s apology but his failure on reform. This is what the man C4 calls a failure was up against, and why he tried perhaps too hard to grow the economy to where it could have any chance at all of continuing to service the demands of its DC blue-sky master utopians.

Oct 8, 2008 - 10:53 pm 191. Dave:

Thanks Fred. Bedtime now.
Get clicking too, Buddy.

In 2002 recession, mountain of ore got bigger and bigger. By 2004 was shrinking, was small in 2006. Have not been there lately, so am in the dark.

BTW the next reunion is in Vegas. (How did I win that vote anyway?)

Sometime in 2009, National Geographic Special on “Mysteries of the Deep” Much emphasis on 1942 collision between Queen Mary and HMS Curacoa, killing over 300 English sailors (RIP). Will feature the only two known Curacoa survivors and Owen Medley a P38 Crew Chief who filmed the collision as it happened.

Night all.

Oct 8, 2008 - 11:04 pm 192. slade:

Buddy – the only disagreement I have with the market versus government failure is that 2003/04 (around there) under Donaldson as SEC chairman the five big investment houses were allowed to leverage up from 12:1 to 30:1. I guess it depends on whether you call that government regulation or deregulation. The rest of it is pretty clear.

Has been for some time.

Good verse.

Oct 8, 2008 - 11:50 pm 193. Cannoneer No. 4:

tb68@Oct 8, 2008 – 5:29 pm

Hamid Gul is a thoroughly dangerous man.

The helicopters start desperately trying to ferry troops out of Bagram Airbase.

Ferry ‘em where?

If the Paks turn on us we reenact Anabasis and Chosin Reservoir, or they reenact Gandamak. Only in this case Hungnam is 587 miles.

Oct 9, 2008 - 12:03 am 194. slade:

As a lawn chair economist, I make a poor social scientist

was what I meant to say.

Oct 9, 2008 - 12:08 am 195. Zeno:

It’s kind of scary the cluelessness of Obama voters. I just listened to some of them and realized that most of them do not even know WHY they are voting for this guy.

I mean, they have no idea what his ideas, plans, or politics are (and anyone knows for sure?). They are voting on a pretty face and the HOPE of CHANGE. They really expect everything to magically CHANGE. Scary, huh?

Oct 9, 2008 - 12:37 am 196. Karen:

Zeno, it’s more than kind of scary, it’s downright dread and fear I’m feeling. Ideally, educated and informed voters decide who’s best for the good of the country. The candidacy of someone like Obama proves that the political selection process just doesn’t work at all anymore. He slipped by the vetting process of the DNC and up to now has managed to slip by any mass media vetting. Nothing seems to be working the way it should.

Oct 9, 2008 - 1:51 am 197. ledger:

Regarding the debate, McCain did fair but not great on the hot button issue of the economy. The blame lies with Barney Frank and the democrats.

Everything from Social Security to Fannie can be traced to the democrats (including all of their bloated social programs).

Worse, it doesn’t help the markets to have a Marxists democrat Presidential candidate ahead in the poles. That alone will scare many investors away.

The liberal spending policies of the democrats should cause and a number of them to be thrown out of office and some of them thrown in jail.

Democrat William Jefferson is good example of a bad example.

Get the book on Acorn, Ayers, Barney Frank and the rest of the greedy lot. Shine the light on them and let find out how far the malfeasance goes.

Get the democrat’s hands out of the federal piggy bank now.

Oct 9, 2008 - 2:50 am 198. Wadeusaf:

There needs to be understood the difference between Gov’t regulation and oversight. There needs to be understood the difference between deregulation and criminal activity.

In the political hen-house we have self regulating foxes overseeing the hens and short of voting them out we can only hope they get a chicken bone stuck in their windpipe.

Is a viscous cycle like whirled peas soup? Isn’t the current cycle of whirled peas more like a green vortex? Flush full of cash.

Oct 9, 2008 - 5:45 am 199. Teresita:

C4: You cannot count on this old Senate geezer to pull any bacon out when he endorsed spending 800 billion on Iraq, 760 billion on Homeland security, and tax cuts for the rich that doubled our national deficit in the Bush II Era.(by 3.8 trillion).

That’s over his career. Just during this campaign he worked to tack on another $140 billion on top of the $700 billion giveaway, then during the debate he proposed another $300 giveaway to snap up bad loans, without even the possibility of recouping it. He actually makes Obama with his trillion dollars for universal health insurance look prudent. A pox on both their houses. I’m voting for Bob Barr.

Oct 9, 2008 - 6:28 am 200. slade:

Dave -

Didn’t think of this last night but you might consider sending Cramer an email with an arcane query like borax. My gut tells me it might take some graduate student awhile to strip down the various indices which bundle the minerals which are bundled with the commodities portfolio of individual stock holdings.

Second buddy about copper. I knew that at one point and forgot. Buddy’s disk undoubtedly got higher capacity!

Oct 9, 2008 - 7:06 am 201. slade:

There needs to be understood the difference between Gov’t regulation and oversight. There needs to be understood the difference between deregulation and criminal activity. – wadeusaf

Good point on both. To the extent that I can continue to watch – and it’s limited – I will be looking for overt acts of criminal activity. My understanding at present is that the derivatives/mortgage securities market is fully legal. My understanding about the bad (NINJA) loans is that they were “imprudent”. When F&F took them in, they were pressured by government “oversight.”

O’Reilly – and he’s excitable, but if not now, then when – said that McCain should announce Guiliani as his AG and Romney as his Treasury Secretary. Delienate the plan that the three of them would use to aggressively prosecute criminal acts in government and finance, repair the regulatory code for the modern financial sector (huge effort – another one I’ll be watching), and move out of the current crisis keeping one eye at home and one eye abroad.

The “Bureaucrats of Penzance” (Dennis Miller).

Oct 9, 2008 - 7:18 am 202. slade:

The Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act (1999), pushed by Republicans led by Gramm but signed by Clinton at the advice of Rubin consolidated commercial and investment banking resulting in the rise of the five big investment houses that dominated the news in September. I recognize the contentiousness but this act of “deregulation” had consequences. The CDO markets were developed and pushed by the five big investment houses.

At any rate, it’s not my intention to argue the point but to note that the shenanigans were deep, bipartisan, and contemptuously dismissive of the well-being of the American people, whether disguised as a feel-good humanity home or a killer investment opportunity.

To repeat, the tipping point for me was the 2003-2005 time period when the GSE insolvency was identified and, not just ignored, but actively covered up as F&F literally doubled down. This was Democratic malfeasance at the highest level. The Republicans should have done more. They did not.

Oct 9, 2008 - 8:03 am 203. programmer:

Out of my league says:

The Broad Brush Boomer Bashing by some posters here is puzzling to me. What’s all this biz about Boomers staring into the abyss and dreading death? Speak for yourself, youngsters.

programmer responds:
This thread is kind of slowing down, so you may not get this apology, but anyway, here goes….

Sorry if I swept you up in my broad brush generalization, but when the mood strikes to write (happens more and more frequently lately), I detest having to use the words, “usually”, “in general”, “allegedly”, “some, but not all”. It makes for better narrative flow to “nuke them all and let God parse out the inappropriate”. Hmmm, I am still having trouble with metaphors, though….

Oct 9, 2008 - 9:06 am 204. Dave:

Programmer: In the past I have noticed that certain people seemed to believe they would enjoy personal immortality of the flesh
if they could just keep us in our place.

I labeled them neo-humanists. They had given up on perfecting thee and me as we were incorrigible. But they declared themselves perfected and thus a higher form of being than us mortals.

Along the same lines, see Sowell’s “Visions of the Annointed”.

For now though: “I owe, I owe, So off to work I go.”

Oct 9, 2008 - 9:34 am 205. fred:

Dave,

I’ve been working at home today, but what I had to bring home from the office was more than I realized. So, I have not been able to do much research at all into borax. I did searches at Morningstar and the WSJ and only came up with a few articles about a company that deals in it, but they are also into other precious metals’ mining too.

Is the substance borax listed in the commodities’ index? I’ll try and check that out later. Either you or I will turn something up, one way or another.

Oct 9, 2008 - 10:21 am 206. slade:

Seriously Dave – email Cramer – it’s a good issue – copper versus borax.

At the worst he’ll be stumped and you get a medal in the Hall of Fame.

Oct 9, 2008 - 11:08 am 207. buddy larsen:

O’Reilly’s stout on the ramparts of western civ –but McCain has already said he’d like Warren Buffet at treasury. i guess his campaign hasn’t heard that WB is a strong Obama supporter. (*sigh*)

Down nearly 700 today, including 100 more as some several-million plus blocks of GN, Coca Cola, HewlettPackard came in just before the bell and cleared after the bell.

Not sure there’s gonna be enough money in the brokerage accounts to clear this stuff –oh well, call the candy factory.

Three more things to pay up –the credit default swaps, and the gap between priced SP500 forward earnings as of the end of last reporting period, and what they’ll be next report. that may be another 20 bucks –from around 90 to 70. Then there’s the rest of the wave of hedge fund redemptions.

THEN we can start rebuilding the structure.

The market acts like not one but both pres candidates are short the system.

Take note of your valuables –ain’t it nice to have a good coffee maker and frying pan? Aren’t you glad you didn’t take that $5k vacation last August? Isn’t it good that the youngsters are gonna grow up in a more rigorous & serious world?

Oct 9, 2008 - 1:32 pm 208. buddy larsen:

GN should be GM –now at its early 50s nominal price/share. Wonder what the dollar was worth in 1955…. Anyhoo, good work, there, UAW –fine job ya done, once again.

Oct 9, 2008 - 1:36 pm 209. buddy larsen:

@Karen “it’s downright dread and fear I’m feeling” –check out this Instapundit post from yesterday, if you want to read somebody who’ll make you feel –in contrast –positively optimistic! well maybe.

Oct 9, 2008 - 1:44 pm 210. Belmont Club » Taleb’s warning:

[...] linear measures like the bailout long after it has strayed into nonlinear territory. I wrote in the Second Debate that: It used to be a case that if you did X then Y resulted. If 2X then 2Y. But the old [...]

Oct 9, 2008 - 5:21 pm 211. Paul:

Wretchard-

The drop in the market today had the feel of ” the markets internalizing an Obama Presidency” – the beginning of the “shiver”.

While there is still over 3 weeks to go, and a lot can happen, I think a lot of pubs over the last two days have become very disheartened. Mc Cain couldn’t make the effort over that long Senate career to bone up just a little on economics and it shows. Mc Cain with his $300 bill mortgage bailout is still the stupid economic populist. His economic comments didn’t have the intelligence, force, passion or proper context to make the connection he needs with the voter.

The Dems are running on at least three big conceptual lies, not counting O’s personal lies and marxism:

1. Iraq under Saddam was not a threat and therefore attacking Saddam was a horrible mistake.
2. Global Warming is the greatest threat to mankind.
3. Republican deregulation is responsible for this financial crisis.

Like a complete loser, Mc Cain has completely ceded the first two arguments to the Democrats and has only begun to weakly counter the third. You cannot win elections like that.

I hope we can survive the “let the fever break” therapy. Sometimes just by itself the fever kills. With a little more constitutional reinterpretation here , a whole bunch more of illegal alien voters there and a pinch more of ACORN, we may be in the soup forever.

Oct 9, 2008 - 8:25 pm 212. Stew:

Konyok,
It’s good you hung in there for your stepson. My son was also hard to tolerate throughout his teens. Tell your soldier that, even though we don’t know him, he makes us proud.

Oct 9, 2008 - 8:47 pm 213. Karen:

buddy larsen, thanks for sharing the bright side, ha. Hubby and I were on the verge of beginning a remodel (with savings) here at the house when all this meltdown news hit. Needless to say, that’s a no-go now. Not only the remodel, but plans for the future in general are all in question now. Presently, there is no clear plan for the future.

Paul, excellent points, #s 1, 2 and 3. It’ll be the blind leading the blind and we’ll all fall into the ditch.

Oct 9, 2008 - 9:35 pm 214. Bob Murphy:

@Karen.
Best get those savings and pack them under your mattress, or a floorboard.

Oct 11, 2008 - 4:10 pm 215. Karen:

Bob, I’ve actually considered renting a safe deposit box; am I crazy, dunno… feeling altogether too scattered and nutty these days. OTOH, in Europe right now – and they LOVE Obama – basically you’re a socialist or a racist. Looks a heck of a lot like shades of things to come. Redistributing wealth and rendering us defenseless will be the new order. OTOH, if our defenses are utterly abandoned, my money won’t matter much.

Oct 11, 2008 - 4:41 pm

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