Comments on: Taleb’s warning

By: Rant of the Week: 10/26/08-11/1/08 » The Ethereal Voice

Rant of the Week: 10/26/08-11/1/08 » The Ethereal Voice — Sun, 26 Oct 2008 22:16:30 +0000

[...] week’s rant of the week is Taleb’s Warning from the Belmont [...]

By: Fat Man

Fat Man — Tue, 14 Oct 2008 05:35:18 +0000

Stress in Global Markets Is a `Black Swan Event': Chart of Day by John Glover at Bloomber.com on 13 Oct. 2008: The CHART OF THE DAY shows Bloomberg's Financial Conditions Index, which includes yield spreads and measures of the money, stock and bond markets. The index's drop this month is the kind of rare, devastating event described in Nassim Taleb's book "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable," said Nigel Marriott, the founder of Bath, England-based Marriott Statistical Consulting Ltd. "It's way off the scale, a one-in-billions chance," said Marriott, a fellow of the Royal Statistical Society. "This is absolutely a black swan event." In statistical theory, about 68 percent of events are within one standard deviation above or below the average, 95 percent are within two deviations and 99.7 percent within three. Markets are currently 9.47 so-called standard deviations from usual levels, the Bloomberg index shows. The measures indicate conditions so unusual that they're comparable only with winning the lottery twice in a week or the earth being destroyed by an asteroid, said David Watts, a strategist at CreditSights Inc. in London. The data go back only to 1992 and so don't reflect market disruptions such as Black Monday in October 1987 or the Great Depression. * * *

By: The Financial Crisis is not a Black Swan at Combat Consulting

The Financial Crisis is not a Black Swan at Combat Consulting — Sun, 12 Oct 2008 15:54:57 +0000

[...] Taleb predicted this whole catastrophe in his brilliant book “Black Swans”. From “Taleb’s warning“: Nassim Nicolas Taleb, the author of the Black Swan, quotes from his own book to show that [...]

By: The Financial Crisis is not a Black Swan — LimbicNutrition Weblog

The Financial Crisis is not a Black Swan — LimbicNutrition Weblog — Sun, 12 Oct 2008 15:54:09 +0000

By: Economic Crisis Round-up at Combat Consulting

Economic Crisis Round-up at Combat Consulting — Sun, 12 Oct 2008 15:47:08 +0000

[...] Taleb’s Warning by Richard Fernandez [...]

By: Bob Murphy

Bob Murphy — Sat, 11 Oct 2008 22:14:57 +0000

@Daniel Cosgrove
Quite so.
I couldn’t agree more.
And it’s never been easier to overcome educational deficiencies.
I got 31 million + listings for non-linear in 0.18 seconds.
Geoff and Joe-Google is your friend, as it is ours.
First of all you have to understand that you don’t understand (means getting your ego under control and joining the real world).
BC drives me to distraction, dictionaries and Google very frequently.
Exhilarating stuff much of the time.
And educational.
And not for the faint of heart.
Bless y’all.

By: buddy larsen

buddy larsen — Sat, 11 Oct 2008 14:53:48 +0000

@koblog –heh –good one –

By: Daniel Cosgrove

Daniel Cosgrove — Sat, 11 Oct 2008 12:43:46 +0000

Geoff Puterbaugh and Joe Buzz are good examples of why America is failing in some respects. Linear and Non-Linear are mathematics and physics concepts. They aren’t “psychobabble.” Same with epistemic; that is a term from philosophy.

Had you guys had a good basic education you would have known that.

My critique of you isn’t from some egghead intellectual, but from someone who thinks we have come far astray from basic educational standards. Philosophy and math are the foundations of western civilization and you two make a mockery of it.

By: Kirk Parker

Kirk Parker — Sat, 11 Oct 2008 08:20:34 +0000

programmer,

What, no firearms? You guys are only having 20% of the fun you could be having… clinging fun, of course.

By: Bob Murphy

Bob Murphy — Sat, 11 Oct 2008 07:02:56 +0000

@L3
Then it’s at the peak of that reverse migration that we should proceed in all haste to complete the border fence.