Belmont Club

November 6th, 2008 11:27 am

Political intelligence gathering

Computerworld, sourcing its story primarily from Newsweek, reports that the campaign computer systems of both John McCain and Barack Obama were broken into by a “foreign entity” looking to get information that would be useful in negotiations with the next US President. The speculation in the article was that either Russia or China was responsible.

According to the Newsweek story, a federal agent told Obama campaign officials that they had an IT security problem “way bigger than what you understand. You have been compromised, and a serious amount of files have been loaded off your system.”

Technical staffers working for Obama later speculated that the hackers might have been from China or Russia, the story says. It adds that a security firm retained by the campaign later plugged the security holes.

What information might the “foreign entity” have gotten? The amount of information handled by the campaign computers may have been enormous and very granular. Just how granular was illustrated by the Obama campaign’s Project Houdini, described by Newsweek in its story on the campaigns and computer security as a system for checking off people as they voted in near real-time on their systems.

The Obama campaign’s New Media experts created a computer program that would allow a “flusher”—the term for a volunteer who rounds up nonvoters on Election Day—to know exactly who had, and had not, voted in real time. They dubbed it Project Houdini, because of the way names disappear off the list instantly once people are identified as they wait in line at their local polling station.


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29 Comments

1. JMH:

I’m not entirely sure how a foreign government would use such information against Obama, unless of course it was blackmail threats of exposing illegal voting activity coordinated by the campaign. But even then, why would the threat hold water? Would anyone accept the provenence of such incriminating evidence? Would Medvedev have more credibility than Medved? Donor lists seem more useful for selling to spammers than for political leverage.

The aspect of this story that I find most troubling is the whole “flusher” bit. It harkens back to machine politics (of course – Obama is from Chicago), and machine politics is an ugly thing. The fact it proved successful means we’ll see more of it, and that depresses me.

Nov 6, 2008 - 11:45 am 2. Anton:

As they used to say on Laugh-In; Verrrrrry Interesting, the Chinese are generaly more persistent at such things but the Russians have shown some real creativity as well as a significant disregard for getting caught. My money is on the Soviets….errrr Russians.

Nov 6, 2008 - 11:50 am 3. whiskey:

Obama is going to get rolled, and rolled good, by Putin and Co.

Obama is weak, he’s never gone up against a guy who has actually thrown folks out five story windows. Teleprompter Jesus can give a speech and has guys who are good are organizing elections. That’s it. A real tough guy like Putin will push him around.

If I’m Putin, I hope to set up a distraction: help Pakistan defeat ala Chosin Reservoir, the American forces in Afghanistan, particularly if Obama can be goaded to over-commit with another AQ terrorist atrocity in the US. Then, roll into Ukraine, the Baltics, Finland, Sweden, Norway, Poland, the Balkans, Germany, and perhaps France, the Benelux nations, Denmark, and Northern Italy.

Why not? If Putin waits, those nations will all nuke up themselves. I’m sure Ukraine, Poland, Czech Republic and Hungary are frantically working on nukes, perhaps Finland as well. But NOW, they don’t have them — and falling oil prices, demographic implosion, and enticing weakness (European forces are basically parade shows that could not fight their way out of a paper bag).

The same of course goes for Iran, with the same basic strategy and objective. Get Obama to over-commit his weakened, cut forces, and decisively inflict catastrophic defeat where he can by definition, not win (Afghanistan & Pakistan) and then sweep in with minimal opposition to the main object. Western Europe for Russia, and Iraq/Saudi for Iran. Wealth and power are there for the taking. Weak, ineffective America under Obama allows it.

It’s almost like clockwork. Elect a weak, anti-Defense America hater, get that response.

Nov 6, 2008 - 11:51 am 4. Anton:

It also gives a look at how we will be monitored in the future. Didn’t everybody HAVE to vote under Saddam, lists were kept, penalties applied.

Nov 6, 2008 - 11:52 am 5. Aristide:

Obama has been connected with a lot of pro China people like Klonsky. They might have given tips on what to look for.

Nov 6, 2008 - 12:07 pm 6. Alexis:

If I were the leader of a hostile foreign country and I thought I could get away with it, I would naturally order espionage on rival American political campaigns. It’s a no brainer. Even understanding the mechanics of the other side’s political machine can be useful, either to understand opposition psychology or possibly to imitate their techniques for political campaigns back at home. Even allies typically spy on one another below a certain threshold, and it would be foolish for them not to.

As it is, the breach has been discovered. Somebody broke The Pirate’s Law. (The Pirate’s Law: Don’t get caught.) It’s even more interesting that this story is being publicized where every intelligence agency can see it. It’s hard to say why this is being publicized, but that’s a question I’d like answered.

Nov 6, 2008 - 12:09 pm 7. E. Nigma:

It is reasonable to assume there were “moles” inside the campaigns, either hired or compromised by foreign intelligence. They could have easily paved the way for penetration and a down load of files.

Who knows what was in those files?

Names, dates, Bill Ayers cell phone number. The Russians in particular have a penchant for spying for the sake of spying. They could also play a double game and feed information to domestic political opposition to compromise Obama at home. And find weak people in the Obama organization that will be easy to prey upon and blackmail.

Perhaps the knowledge that there are mean people out there who don’t give a fig about this “transcendental” election will make President-elect Obama a bit more wary of his potential foreign adversaries.

Nov 6, 2008 - 12:15 pm 8. Habu:

Given that the Chinese have an entire military division devoted to penetrating our military,indusrial, and governmental computer systems as outlined in “Unretricted Warfare” by Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui both of the PLA, I would say it’s probably the Chinese.
Aside from the mititary division the Chinese have set up entire companies to recruit hackers on a worldwide basis.

In adition the Soviets and the Chinese have recently concluded several mutual assistence pacts so I am sure some sharing is going on between the two, but probably very little.

Nov 6, 2008 - 12:24 pm 9. Eggplant:

In six months time, the world will be a completely different place. I doubt the information is that important (particularly the rubbish on Obama’s computers).

It’s my understanding that a few years ago the Chinese got into Los Alamos National Labs’ data base. Supposably they cleaned us out and know everything about our nuclear weapons technology down to the rivet head. That was a serious loss!

Nov 6, 2008 - 12:47 pm 10. Marcus Aurelius:

I read the article and I don’t think a candidate’s GOTV machinery is going to be of much interest. However, the article I put up yesterday did note that a campaign’s evolving policy discussions were the targets, I would think finding that information would not be too hard.

I would guess the particulars of any find are out of date but that a general understanding can be gleaned from the haul.

If I got access to a campaign’s system with a view to glean useful information I would be generating file lists with words I would be interested in such as Poland, SDI, NAFTA, Iraq, etc and then grab those files with such hits.

As far as candidate voter list goes, yawn, both parties have similar GOTV efforts and I recall a number of wards in an effort I was in was using blackberries to maintain the lists (however, it was still not real time) while I was using pen & paper.

Nov 6, 2008 - 1:19 pm 11. Quig:

Amazing how an organization can set up a system like Project Houdini but cannot implement a system to comply with the law in respect to campaign donations.

Oh! Wait! Perhaps they intentionaly “mis-designed that system? Or maybe the Russians and/or the Chinese hacked it?

Nov 6, 2008 - 1:21 pm 12. ag:

donors’ list could be quite useful.

Nov 6, 2008 - 2:16 pm 13. Marcus Aurelius:

In any event donor’s lists are public information and can be downloaded from the FEC.

Nov 6, 2008 - 2:41 pm 14. Cannoneer No. 4:

Chinese Cyber Warriors

Red Chinese Cyber-Militia

iWar

Nov 6, 2008 - 2:49 pm 15. bigR:

Remember credit card donations from illegal foreign sources are a one time deal. Proper timing could siphon off another pile of money to a bunch of pirates. The folks paying will not say a word as what they are trying to do – pump up the campaign donations from foreign groups. Any campaign with a shoppimg cart and a credit card portal can be compromised if certain insiders want it to happen or they are lax in their security.

Nov 6, 2008 - 2:53 pm 16. 49erDweet:

bigR makes a good point. This could all be an attempt to scam money from “dark” credit cards, whether or not their fund balances are flushed out and depleted. Once an electronic “charge” is made on a verifiable account there can be a significant float period where e-extended funds might become friable enough for significant amounts to be whisked out and away…..leaving others holding a rather large bag.

Nov 6, 2008 - 3:16 pm 17. bvw:

Great! Transparency!

This is a win-win-win thing. Spying, beyond a certain level, and that level is very small, and very very directed directional, hobbles(1) the evil adversary who uses it. At the same time, it actually co-opts(2) that part of the enemy intelligistium tied into the spying — it is a way of spreading fundamentals of American culture. The “transparency” is the third win.

At least these jakes are transparent to someone.

Nov 6, 2008 - 4:43 pm 18. steveaz:

It’s not clear who did the hacking actually. It could be anyone.

The culprits could be American Special Ops troops tucked away safely in a So. Korean library.

As to motive, what could we learn if the FBI got its hands on Obama’s foreign-donor rolls, IP addresses included? And, how could the FBI gain access while maintaining a shield of deniability (the fact that both campaigns were afflicted makes for good cover…)?

Do you catch my drift? This bipartisan targeting is very, very interesting. Still, I wouldn’t mind finding out a lot more about Obama’s foreign donors.

Nov 6, 2008 - 5:13 pm 19. Semi Cartman:

What if the hacking was simply an investigation of a suspected criminal enterprise. What if the enterprise were the obama campaign, and the investigating agency was the FBI? And the surveillance was done under the aegis of a very controversial law, like FISA? The political effects would be pretty gruesome if it were handled in a conventional John Gotti manner. If ’someone’ had the goods, and the campaign knew it, but that’s all they knew, what would that imply as far as the stability of the new regime? The FBI with the obama files, kind of a reverse Clinton. But what could safely come next?

Nov 6, 2008 - 8:00 pm 20. wretchard:

What if the hacking was simply an investigation of a suspected criminal enterprise. What if the enterprise were the obama campaign, and the investigating agency was the FBI?

The simplest explanation is that it was the Chinese or the Russians. Both have very large and well known cyberwarfare arms, including posting brigades. You will recall the large number of “posters” on this site during the Georgian War, and the large number of “Obama” respondents when I ran an informal poll during a debate.

The campaign database would be important because it can provide a “human map” of access to Obama, a database of social networking within the White House circle. The Russians or the Chinese will be looking for access to intel, influence, etc. They will work on who knows who guided by the knowledge of which persons are political more influential than others. Then they’ll look for people with big gambling debts, in danger of bankruptcy or who have deviances that would be a political liability. A map of connections is not something that you or I may know. Insiders know it, but if the Chinese or the Russians can construct a social networking map from what they get, they’ll be virtual doyens of Georgetown.

Nov 6, 2008 - 8:11 pm 21. Semi Cartman:

The simplest explanation is that it was the Chinese or the Russians. Both have very large and well known cyberwarfare arms, including posting brigades…
The simplest explanation to be sure, also the most benign, since it would imply routine snoopery, a quick way to collect information that could, with some effort, be assembled via other avenues. I’m not even an amateur, so my analyses of stories like this will tend to the Columboesque, but if I were Obama or his delegate, and I was involved (let’s say)in record breaking malfeasance, what information loss would I be more afraid of? Social information, which I could fix, or financial, which is just cold hard records, impossible for me to call back. The premise ‘Obama-afraid’ isn’t even in the story. oh well.

Nov 6, 2008 - 8:43 pm 22. Semi Cartman:

By the way, this ‘Houdini’ nonsense is very disturbing. I was an election judge at a precinct across the township from my home since 1998. The last primary was the end of the line for me. The polling place was staffed with democrat pollwatchers all day, viewing names on ballot applications and using blackberries, laptops, and cellphones to reference them and communicate outside. All ‘legal’. The weird thing was all the voters coming in who I’d never seen before. Whole families. Quite a few were grumbling. “I better just get it over with or they won’t leave me alone”. All were registered in the precinct. Kept up all day, with the most complaints in the afternoon-evening. It was strange that when the votes were tallied after closing, the Obamas outnumbered all others put together. In a Republican precinct, in a ’safe’ congressional district(now dem,since then) Too weird for me. I want nothing to do with that stuff, especially as an unwitting tool.
But, so that’s how they do it eh?

Nov 6, 2008 - 9:22 pm 23. Marcus Aurelius:

GOTV operations I have been a part of consist of calling people and briefly surveying the views on key and issues where the parties differ. If the answers Voter X gives you mesh with your party into the voter database they go.

People like me then take a list of identified friendly (however, even though their answers say they agree some are too stupid to know they are supposed to vote for our party) voters and sit next to the poll workers. When voters on my list come to vote I cross them off of the list and at about 4:00-5:00 I take that list to a phone bank and those people not crossed off the list get a reminder to vote call. People in the know claim a good GOTV operation means a 5% difference (working on recall here) in results.

I am not there to corrupt the system, harass or challenge voter validity, I am there to make sure friendly voters vote.

I am still not convinced the GOTV database (i.e. Houdini, fyi, Houdini was born in the town near my residence which for the first time in 91 years is going to be represented by a dem) is of much worth to foreign enemies, most of those people are schmoes who picked up the phone at 1:38 pm on a Sunday afternoon and answered three-four questions. However, your supposition, about human network mapping Wretchard, would apply much more to contributor databases and especially VOLUNTEER databases.

As you all can probably tell “Marcus Aurelius” (actually my given name) is in a couple campaign volunteer databases, and as a little treat one spring I was allowed to drive (very very cool) in a Presidential Motorcade when President Bush visited our city sometime ago, I suppose national enemies might be able to use that data to compromise motorcade security.

Nov 6, 2008 - 10:54 pm 24. Marcus Aurelius:

Errr, “actually, not my given name”. Must remember not to comment on blogs after three-four cans of LaCrosse Lager.

Nov 6, 2008 - 11:37 pm 25. OldSalt:

“The campaign database would be important because it can provide a “human map” of access to Obama, a database of social networking within the White House circle. The Russians or the Chinese will be looking for access to intel, influence, etc…” @Wretchard

Bingo. The nature of intelligence gathering is to behave like a vacuum, gathering in mass rather than discreetly. The goal is to present as comprehensive and accurate a picture of the target as possible (whatever that may happen to be at any given time). The only limitation is in the ability to process, store, analyze, and comprehend the pieces to construct a whole. The answer to who did it and what were they after is “a large, sophisticated intelligence net”, and “everything and anything”. One email between two principles established a relationship. Every single email from Obama or one of his aids tells a lot even if only the header (i.e. from, to, date/time, and IP address) was available. It’s the same goal that NSA has, and why signal gathering and analysis on a volume scale is so successful. 1000 intrusions to small, inconsequential databases and data stores of federal, state, and local entities can be as valuable and the one big hit at Los Alamos, or other secure installations, given that the resources and IT apps and infrastructure is available to process the data.

From a Counter Intel perspective, the invasion tells a lot about the invader, maybe more than the invader might learn from the specific intrusion. It means that the source has vast resources invested in ELINT, HAS the resources to process and make sense of that volume of data, and has the will to penetrate official US systems “dirty”, leaving footprints all over the furniture on the way out.

Nov 7, 2008 - 12:16 am 26. bvw:

Old Salt to say that “The nature of intelligence gathering is to behave like a vacuum, gathering in mass rather than discreetly.” is a way of combining a general truth, with a specific bid for action. The general truth is that the nature of a person’s, and organization, and a culture’s intelligence is to behave like a vacuum, gathering in mass. The specific bid for action is, by inference in context of the discussion, that such is the way a state’s spying should be done.

I strongly disagree. Very strongly.

Nov 7, 2008 - 5:31 am 27. bigR:

A rogue bank can auto-generate a huge random set of one time fake credit card accounts with a huge base of US addresses. Then go to a candidates send in money site and dump a huge amount of donations. Can be easily done with a simple script to input the one time only accounts. Candidate gets the multiple small denomination wire transfer in say 2 days and he is $200 million richer. Candidate says thanks. Then all one time accounts are wiped clean as they are per-paid.
Happens all the time in IRS refunds.

Nov 7, 2008 - 2:24 pm 28. Steynian 281 « Free Canuckistan!:

[...] COMPUTERWORLD, sourcing its story primarily from Newsweek, reports that the campaign computer systems of both [...]

Nov 7, 2008 - 3:07 pm 29. Ms. Know:

I wouldn’t want a leader to get tips from other countries, particulary ones that don’t like us. So if the left-wing illuminati took their advice, we’re screwed.

Nov 15, 2008 - 9:25 am

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