Former Spook, an ex-intelligence analyst, described Russia’s deployment of SS-26 Iskander to Kaliningrad as a “shot across the bow” of the incoming administration. The purpose of these missiles was to threaten to destroy components of the planned US anti-missile defense shield in to be based in Poland. The SS-26s themselves are fired from mobile launchers and designed to launch “effective missile strikes at small-size targets of particular importance” on very short notice. Russian President Dimitry Medvedev also said that Russia “plans to jam a radar located in the Czech Republic, used to detect in-bound missiles and guide the Polish-based interceptors.”
Together the moves are designed to neutralize the US ballistic missile defense systems in Eastern Europe. By threatening to destroy the interceptors and jam the radar which may guide them, Russia can blow a hole in the defense shield. But they always could, from sheer numbers alone. The shield was never designed to blunt a Russian attack only that of a rogue state’s. That makes the reasons for the Russian move all the more puzzling. According to Phil Coyle, a former Pentagon weapons tester quoted by Wired, the US ballistic missile defense systems are nearly useless, at least in their current state. “The system proposed for Poland and the Czech Republic doesn’t exist, has never been tested, and has no demonstrated effectiveness to defend Europe or the U.S. under realistic operational conditions”.
A Russian threat to bombard Poland simply because it had a potential defense system useful against Iran might be construed as overly provocative, especially since Barack Obama had said in his campaign that “he would institute an ‘Independent Defense Priorities Board,’ cut investments from an ‘unproven missile defense system,’ ’set a goal for a world without nuclear weapons,’ ‘work with Russia to take our ICBM’s off hair trigger alert’ and ’slow the development of Future Combat Systems.’” Why would Russia seek to provoke an Obama administration already prepared to concede the missile defense system? The answer, according to the private think-tank STRATFOR, was that the moves were aimed at emphasizing Russian strength to pry Russia away the Ukraine, a challenge which would split NATO.
The morning after Obama’s election, Russian President Dmitri Medvedev announced that Russia was deploying missiles in its European exclave of Kaliningrad in response to the U.S. deployment of ballistic missile defense systems in Poland. Obama opposed the Russians on their August intervention in Georgia, but he has never enunciated a clear Russia policy. We expect Ukraine will have shifted its political alignment toward Russia, and Moscow will be rapidly moving to create a sphere of influence before Obama can bring his attention — and U.S. power — to bear.
Obama will again turn to the Europeans to create a coalition to resist the Russians. But the Europeans will again be divided. The Germans can’t afford to alienate the Russians because of German energy dependence on Russia and because Germany does not want to fight another Cold War. The British and French may be more inclined to address the question, but certainly not to the point of resurrecting NATO as a major military force.
If STRATFOR is correct the Russian missile deployment is simply a prelude to a wider geopolitical game. It’s the opening bell of a main event whose outlines have yet to be definitely discerned.
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1. Brock:Apparently the Russians didn’t get the memo that Obama’s election would usher in world peace and good relations with our foreign peers.
Nov 6, 2008 - 1:11 pm 2. Quig:Exquisite timing!
Nov 6, 2008 - 1:32 pm 3. David Thomson:A large number of Obama will soon suffer from buyer’s remorse. They are similar to the car buyer who didn’t bother to check out the vehicle before paying out their money. Never forget something extremely important: countless Obama voters are hoping he lied during the campaign! He couldn’t have really meant all that stuff, could he? Instinctively, Obama blames America for any of our troubles in the world. We allegedly crapped on these people and they are merely retaliating against our vile policies. Smiling nicely and begging for forgiveness should resolve all those pesky issues.
Nov 6, 2008 - 1:36 pm 4. ginsocal:Barry’s “deer-in-the-headlights” look begins in 3…2…1…
Nov 6, 2008 - 1:42 pm 5. Marcus Aurelius:Energy futures were down today, with the forward delivery on CL being nearly $60.00/barrel. I have seen in a number of places Russian oil takes about $70.00/barrel to pay, so at the moment the world is telling Russia it doesn’t need its oil and Russia is not getting any good old foreign cash. Another nation is in similar straits and that is good ole Iran.
Iran and Russia have had somewhat cordial relations with Russia supplying Iran with diesel subs and my RECOLLECTION is with nuclear material and expertise.
Iran’s oil sells at a discount from the number above as the majority of Iranian oil is sour crude and I recall reading reports last summer they were stockpiling oil offshore in tankers. Nothing I have found seems to indicate what happened to those stockpiles and most reports indicate current stockpiling is normal for Iran.
If the SDI plans for Poland & its neighbors are as reported this seems like it is still a bad thing for Russia for it certainly seems as if they are getting all snuggly with Iran.
Nov 6, 2008 - 1:47 pm 6. Charles:I don’t think the russian moves are all that complicated.
They want to draw the line on the boudaries for europe at the eastern borders of poland czech repub hungary bulgaria.
They are not keen on the eastern expansion of Nato.
There is a great push on to include ukraine and maybe georgia in nato.
Their moves are designed to keep that from happening.
I’m not so sure I disagree with them. Why defend the borders of Ukraine and Georgia when we don’t currently defend our own?
Nov 6, 2008 - 1:47 pm 7. Unsk:Come on Charles, you ‘re normally sensible.
Just a few months ago, most Americans, albeit ill informed Americans did not see Russia as a threat. Russia has clearly made itself a threat by their own actions, and not through the actions of the USA.
The SDI work in Eastern Europe was meant to deter Iran. It’s not our fault that Russia wants to assist Iran in it’s nuclear ambitions.
The “we must be sensitive to Russia’s historical imperial ambitions ” argument is crap. We must make it crystal clear, by words and deeds, to Russia and Putin that either they join the Free World , play by the rules, and reap the benefits or the days of Russia as a world power are over. And we do have the power still to make that happen.
BTW the “We can’t defend our own borders” argument is irrelevant to the discussion of Russia’s threat to Eastern Europe. Because we have not effectively dealt with our own illegal immigration, does not mean we should not or cannot deal with our foreign adversaries.
This is the first test of whether Obama’s more hawkish stance during the debates was just another Obama con. If it was a con, this crisis is just the first and least of many to come.
Nov 6, 2008 - 2:20 pm 8. K:Charles has it right. Russia is acting tough for political reasons. They don’t have any actual concern about these US activities in Poland or nearby.
So they poke at our weakness. We cannot actually defend these sites we are building. They are simply too close to Russia and can be destroyed by tactical missiles or tactical air attack.
The Russians know we can’t defend the installations and so do we. And both know there will be no attack from the other. Neither would gain from that.
So we build them for political reasons and the Russians threaten them for political reasons. The sites have, at most, some surveillance value.
Georgia also cannot be defended. A limited US attempt would fail and might lead to a total war. And again both sides know it.
OTOH Russia has little reason to grab all of Georgia. It isn’t that valuable. And as long as the US wastes billions there why not let them continue?
So a foolish Russia just might seize the rest of Georgia. The risk is low. A great time would be as Obama motors to the inaugural. If that didn’t send a signal then nothing would.
Nov 6, 2008 - 2:26 pm 9. Cannoneer No. 4:The Axis of Evil is rubbing their hands with glee at the prospect of the humiliations they have in store for America.
Russia
Iran
China
Venezuela
Pakistan
North Korea
Syria
Al Qaeda and friends
Afghan Oppositional Groups
Somali pirates
Latin American narco-terrorists
America-hating Americans
They’re all in it together.
Reap it, Obamanoids.
time and time again, the good and decent common people have manned the walls of the city, and have been ready to give their lives in its defense, only to discover too late that some silk-robed son of a bitch has snuck out of the palace at midnight and thrown open the gates to the barbarians outside. — Bill Whittle
Laid in a store of iodine pills, yet?
Nov 6, 2008 - 2:27 pm 10. Whitehall:So Russia threatens to distroy a Polish missile defense installation that defends Europe only against Iranian missiles?
The only way this makes sense tactically is if Iran and Russia coordinated their attacks against Europe. I can see the advantage to Iran but what does Russia get out of an Iranian attack?
Politically, it is a self-justification for a hostile attitude. Remember that interrogation line in “French Connection” - “Did you pick you teeth in Poughkeepsie?”
Nov 6, 2008 - 3:01 pm 11. Marcus Aurelius:I wonder if Armenia & Azerbaijan are concerned about all of this?
Nov 6, 2008 - 3:09 pm 12. JMH:All we need now is Joe Biden saying “I told you this would happen.”
Of course, old Gaf–O-Matic also said we wouldn’t like Obama’s response. Unfortunately, I think Joe pegged that one. Can’t wait to see what The One comes up with.
Nov 6, 2008 - 3:21 pm 13. J.J. Sefton:Watch the waters off Taiwan for PLA naval “maneuvers.” I’d lay even money on that within the next 18 months. That and Dow Jones Average at 3,000.
Nov 6, 2008 - 3:35 pm 14. wretchard:Anybody who’s ever taken care of a sick person knows that when the patient is sufficiently weakened all kinds of bad things happen at once. Bed sores, infection, pneumonia, high blood pressure, low blood pressure, blood chemistry imbalances. It’s like the whole system goes “tilt”.
While the world is not yet in that state — I hope — catastrophes can cascade with alarming rapidity. And misfortune will be no respecter of party lines. So even those who may be watching, aghast, at some foolishness, akin to someone trying to recover from a stall by pulling back the stick, the inescapable fact is that we are all in the same boat. Grappling for the controls in a crisis normally doesn’t work. What helps is trying to do the best you can at your job.
Military catastrophes are instructive because they often reveal many mini-victories or remarkable stories of survival within a larger negative situation. Sometimes one side puts up a good show headless, simply because the parts function better than the dysfunctional whole. Think about the Iraqi insurgency, for example.
However the Obama administration handles the crisis, and one hopes they handle it well, professionalism still has to be the watchword. I think it’s highly probable that the first months of 2009 will see a series of challenges and crises. The task will be to survive them all.
Nov 6, 2008 - 3:41 pm 15. Alexis:I think Russia will win this round.
Maybe Obama will ask Poland to show restraint.
Nov 6, 2008 - 3:46 pm 16. Fred:It is Russia and China that prevent effective sanctions against Iran’s nuclear weapons and ICBMs.
There is a pattern.
Iran is a proxy for Russia. How about Bill Ayers? How about Obama?
Nov 6, 2008 - 3:47 pm 17. E. Nigma:Someone once said (I think it was Adlai Stevenson) that the premise of Soviet foreign policy was that of a simple hotel thief; check the door on every room and go into the one that is unlocked.
They push where they can and be opportunistic. The West, NATO and the US are in something of political dissarray. Perhaps BHO can use the transecedant power of hope and change, and put all the pieces together again (re-invigorate NATO?).
Or perhaps not (that’s my wager); the hinge pin will be the willingness of the rest of NATO to bely up to the bar on Afghanistan.
Nov 6, 2008 - 3:47 pm 18. heather:And perhaps in the long run that’s better for us. Better a few true friends at the table than a room full of false ones we have now. In the sense of “only Nixon could go to China”, only a liberal-left protectionist could get us out of NATO.
If Russia wants to ‘Finlandize’ Western Europe, they are welcome to that nightmare. I hope that they have registered all their weapons as part of the REACH requirements, or the bureaucrats will tie them up in red tape.
Apparently, Rahm Emmanuel, who is Obama’s Chief of Staff, is a very tough guy, picked, it is assumed to keep Pelosi and Reid in line??
Also, once he jumped up on a table and screamed at some campaign workers, getting their attention…
And during Gulf War I, he fought with the IDF.
All this makes me feel better about the future.
Nov 6, 2008 - 3:48 pm 19. Alexis:…the inescapable fact is that we are all in the same boat.
So what? Obama is at the controls and it’s his fault if the boat sinks, even if I am in it. If I die, I die. There are times when the only path of resistance is letting one’s body go limp and watching the proceedings with a blank stare. Expecting participation in such a context is asking a bit much.
Nov 6, 2008 - 4:01 pm 20. wretchard:Expecting participation in such a context is asking a bit much.
Sometimes it is possible to win by simply holding on and keeping things together, because sometimes success comes when the other side outblunders you. If you survive long enough, the breaks can go your way. That’s how the Russians beat Napoleon and maybe how Stalin beat Hitler. To some extent there was no rhyme or reason to the Eastern Front in World War 2 and maybe the same could have been said of the Western Front in the Great War. When things are chaotic, there’s almost no such thing as participation in a nonexistent plan. In these cases the prize goes to the one who had a little more and did it a little better. You play for time; time to get things in order, time for things to run your way.
Nov 6, 2008 - 4:23 pm 21. newtland:So does the Emmanuel appointment keep Israel from attacking Iran before Bush leaves?
Nov 6, 2008 - 4:30 pm 22. Tony:Why is it always the rockets?
Even Jimmy Carter played the rockets card:
Nuclear weapons: Cruise, Pershing & Trident, 1979-80
On 9 May 1979, days after Margaret Thatcher’s election, Secretary of State Cy Vance and Defense Secretary Harold Brown sent the President a memo urging he take the lead in persuading NATO allies to accept Cruise and Pershing missiles (Theatre Nuclear Forces, or TNF) on European soil to counter the build up of Soviet SS-20s, aiming for a NATO consensus by December 1979. The President approved on 18 May.
No need to even mention the Cuba “missile crisis” business, Bay of Pigs, JFK, all that.
Likewise, we can skip over the V-2 (first spark out of Pandora’s Box).
Then we get to 1980’s, Reagan’s Star Wars … which is just now, 20 years later, starting to perform as advertised.
Prez Bush seems to have done his best to prove “Star Wars” concepts, including the launch of two targets and AEGIS interceptors last week. (Only one hit its target, but don’t worry, they’re just testing the radar or some other minor gizmo. Chin up.)
If I were a chess player, I might think Putin is sending out Bishop and Rook to stop what is shaping up as a missile defense checkmate. IN this limited timeframe.
Nov 6, 2008 - 4:55 pm 23. Tony:Ooops, forget the citation, my last post was from the Jimmy Carter Library:
http://www.margaretthatcher.org/archive/us-carter.asp
Carter Library
Nov 6, 2008 - 4:57 pm 24. sirius_sir:margaretthatcher.org publishes for the first time files from the Carter Library, none of them previously available on-line or in print..
Sometimes it is possible to win by simply holding on and keeping things together, because sometimes success comes when the other side outblunders you.
When the First Army turned before Paris, Gallieni saw a chance to hit its flank and repulse the German onslaught.
Modified by Moltke the younger and further dissipated by Wilhelm’s decision to send three critical army corps and one cavalry division to defend against Russia, the Schlieffen Plan bogged down at the most critical juncture. Of course, the Germans had also by then been hard on the march for three weeks. Something had to give and it did, resulting in the so-called Miracle of the Marne. But then what came after was something less than miraculous and certainly fell short of victory. That took a few years more and a whole lot of slaughter and hard fighting. Which isn’t to say the effort–at least from the French perspective–wasn’t worth it.
Nov 6, 2008 - 6:24 pm 25. sirius_sir:From the Guns of August to the Missiles of November.
Nov 6, 2008 - 6:25 pm 26. whiskey:Putin’s play is to swallow up much of Europe, likely in concert with Iran taking the Gulf. He’s allied with them, and working with them to have America weakened. Among other things, he hopes to provoke a war with the US and Muslim forces over a nuke going off in the US.
Thus allowing him a free hand in Europe. I’m sure he hopes also that the US will eventually fight the Iranians, destroying his own potential enemy.
Nov 6, 2008 - 6:30 pm 27. Brad:Obama would’ve asked September 1939 Poland to “show restraint.”
Nov 6, 2008 - 6:43 pm 28. Brad:“Why is it always the rockets?”
I agree - I’m much more concerned about the jet pack gap.
Nov 6, 2008 - 6:44 pm 29. exhelodrvr:Whitehall,
“The only way this makes sense tactically is if Iran and Russia coordinated their attacks against Europe.”
You’re thinking tactically. You need to think strategically.
Nov 6, 2008 - 7:47 pm 30. elby:Could someone please explain to me why we should care what happens in Europe? We’ve gone over their twice already to save them from themselves. Yeah, I know. Defend freedom from tyranny and all that. But we can’t possibly stop tyranny everywhere all the time. It seems to me that the Europeans have chosen not to defend themselves and in fact prefer tyranny to freedom. I don’t think the future looks good for Europe, and I don’t think there is much we can do to help them. They have chosen their path.
Nov 6, 2008 - 7:47 pm 31. Ammo Guy:Excuse me…”And during Gulf War I, he fought with the IDF”? Where did that come from? I’ve seen nothing in any of his bios to indicate he ever fought for anything other than himself. He would’ve been about 31 during Desert Storm and he had just finished working for Little Richie Daley’s campaign for mayor in 1989. Maybe he “fought with the IDF” the way I fought with my brother when we were growing up. If I’ve missed something here, my apologies.
Nov 6, 2008 - 7:53 pm 32. Ammo Guy:Whoops, too quick on the trigger. Apparently “he volunteered as a civilian volunteer in the Israel Defense Forces during the 1991 Gulf War, serving in one of Israel’s northern bases, rust-proofing brakes.” My apologies Heather…though the characterization of him “fighting” with the IDF might be a bit generous.
Nov 6, 2008 - 7:59 pm 33. JMH:Could someone please explain to me why we should care what happens in Europe?
I think they’re done, it’s just a matter of waiting for them to pop out of the toaster when it goes ding. Since they couldn’t be full-fledged partners in securing Iraq or Afghanistan (yes I know, they sent some troops, but no where near their “fair share” based on population, wealth, or proximity to the danger), it hastened the onset of war-weariness in the US. McCain might have been predisposed to help Europe. I doubt Obama will want to, and if for some reason he did, he won’t be able to muster the political backing to do it.
Elby’s right, we have to choose where we invest our energy in promoting or protecting freedom. Western Europe doesn’t seem like a good investment - high risk and low reward. We should probably start focusing on South America and Oceana.
Nov 6, 2008 - 8:32 pm 34. sigintel:The Russkies move to deploy mobile missiles and to build high powered RF “Jammers” to interfere with the SDI radar is an aggressive and indeed a timely move, reminding us of the old world’s political checkerboard. Putin is moving back into “full power” and Medevev needed to “fire one for effect” to show that he’s still El Presidente. Putin is probably a much better chess player than Medevev, or Sorkosy and for sure Obama (who’s more than likely a checkers man). While the missile threat may be political “saber rattling”, the deployment of radar jammers and other radio frequency interference generators may even be more threatening to NATO who’s Command, Control Communications (Triple C) relies heavily on outsourced satellite communications to Inmarsat, Eutelsat and to the US Army Milsat birds which all enable ultra small aperture terminals to be used in the field. “Blinding” NATO’s radar and telecomm’s is much more of a threat to Europe and the US than the missiles deployment on the border with Poland. Modern military is 100% reliant on sigint, elint, and 3C comm’s to function. I sure as hell hope Obama has the brains to make General Petreas head of the Joint Chiefs.
Nov 6, 2008 - 9:25 pm 35. sigintel:In one of his biggest applause lines, Medvedev said Russia’s policy in Georgia expressed treasured values.
“There are things which cannot be traded off, there are things for which it’s necessary to fight and triumph,” he said. “This is what is dear to you, which is dear to me, to all of us. Something we cannot imagine our country without. This is why we shall not retreat in the Caucasus.”
For domestic audiences, among the biggest news was the proposed extension of the president’s term by two years. After Medvedev made his speech, Kremlin spokesmen told the Interfax news agency that the change to Russia’s Constitution would not require a vote, and that it would not apply to incumbent politicians.
Political observers were left to puzzle it out: Why would Medvedev push for a reform that would have no relevance for another eight years? The obvious answer, Rahr said, is that Putin is planning a quick return to his old job.
Nov 6, 2008 - 9:35 pm 36. NahnCee:Frankly, Scarlett, I don’t give a damn.
I’m fatigued with the rest of the world, and mesmerized by the strutting preening African-Americans I see swaggering about me here in the United States. My fellow citizens (including all the illegal Mexicans) evidently want to tear the nation apart from within.
I’m much more interested in watching that up close and personal than I am in wondering what Putin will try next, or if China will be angry once it implodes economically because Americans aren’t buying their trinkets any more.
The world may have to take care of itself for the next little bit while we figure out what our newly elected tin pot wannabe dictator has in mind … and can actually accomplish.
P.S. The gays are rioting in the streets too because gay marriage was voted down in California. They *said* there would be street riots no matter what after the election.
Nov 6, 2008 - 10:16 pm 37. Pajamas Media » Missiles of November: Warning Shot Across Obama’s Bow:[...] Read the entire piece here. [...]
Nov 7, 2008 - 1:02 am 38. jvon:I dunno Ammo Guy, wanting to rust-proof brakes bad enough to risk getting shot at to do it does show a certain level of commitment.
Nov 7, 2008 - 1:36 am 39. Rob Murphy:18. heather:
Nov 7, 2008 - 2:30 am 40. Rob Murphy:Huh???
What did the IDF do during Gulf War I?
22. Tony:
It’s nukes more than rockets, Tony.
Before the rockets NATO had nukes in artillery shells, Davy Crocketts, and aircraft to counter the Warsaw Pact 10:1 advantage in tanks.
There was a hidden factor in Cuba that few people know.
At that time the Russkies were a paper tiger. And they were justifiably paranoiac about it.
They had a grand total of six (6) ICBM missile sites. Their ICBMs were liquid fuelled and you could only fuel them immediately prior to launch. That meant their immediate response to any US attack with hundreds of missiles would have been six missiles.
They had bugger all ICBMs but they had plenty of good intermediate range ballistic missiles.
So when they got launching pads up in Cuba it GREATLY enhanced their first strike capability.
Reagan’s Star Wars thang was a masterpiece. It did not have to work to defeat the Russians.
The Russians had totally missed out on the computer revolution. They were getting left hopelessly far behind and could never have hoped to even try anything like Star Wars.
Hell, Reagan even offered to let them have it after it was built.
But it rattled them so bad, along with the every increasing performance disparity between the US and Russia that it put them into a deep funk.
They knew that their system had failed.
And then along came Gorbachev
And you lament missiles?
And here we are, Upper Volta with missiles is trying for an encore.
Po l’il things.
Nov 7, 2008 - 2:43 am 41. Rob Murphy:li’l’
Nov 7, 2008 - 2:44 am 42. Marc Malone:Rob - li’l
This is just a test to see what reaction they get from Obama. He should vote present and let Bush respond (not Prez yet, blahblahblah). Six months, my posterior: The first day! They sure see him as a wuss. Russians are brutes; bullies. When they see a weak sister, they act.
This is about demonstrating Obama’s weakness to all their immediate neighbors. If Obama doesn’t respond agressively, the neighbors will be appropriately cowed. The Russians lack the actual force, economics, and logistics to take Western Europe, but they have the power to influence their weak neighbors.
Should be interesting to see voters’ reaction! What must they be thinking? Oh, wait, they’re still in idol-worship mode. Give them some time to come to their senses. Then… uh-oh.
Nov 7, 2008 - 4:12 am 43. daniel:In a way, it makes sense. If Russia is planning to win the cold war, that is.
Iran is Russia’s attack dog. They give Iran nuclear technology, help the Ayatollah’s develop nuclear weapons, protect them against sanctions and threaten the US efforts to produce missile defense.
When Iran has nuclear weapons the US and Europe will be defenseless. First of all we don’t know if MAD works with Iran, and we may not want to find out. Second, Russia will not face any retaliation. So Russia can safely arm Iran, and even in case of a nuclear exchange wont face any consequences.
However, if a nuclear exchange does take place it will be devestating to the west. If Israel disappears, Europe will have to face the attention of radical Islamists without them being distracted by the Jews. If one or two major western cities get laid to waste, let’s say London and New York, our economies may never recover.
As we decline, Russia will be ready to take over.
Without ever having fired a shot!
Nov 7, 2008 - 4:30 am 44. Donna V.:Apparently, Rahm Emmanuel, who is Obama’s Chief of Staff, is a very tough guy, picked, it is assumed to keep Pelosi and Reid in line??
Oh, Emmanuel is tough alright. There is no shortage of ruthlessness on the Dem side.
Unfortunately, it is always and only directed at other Americans who disagree with them.
Nov 7, 2008 - 4:42 am 45. Rob Murphy:43. daniel:
Without ever having fired a shot!
Lose their empire without ever firing a shot and gain a new one 20 years later the same way.
That would be a laugh.
Nov 7, 2008 - 4:44 am 46. Ann:Alexis! I think you’ve got something there!
Wednesday morning I was reminded of a bumper sticker I saw on a California freeway about 15 years ago: “I feel much better since I gave up hope.”
Schadenfreude is always fun in small doses. I think in Bambam’s case, we’re going to get so much of it, it’s going to stop being fun.
Nov 7, 2008 - 4:52 am 47. Ann:Alexis, I was referencing your post 19. Didn’t notice you had two…
Nov 7, 2008 - 4:55 am 48. Teresita:During the campaign, Joe Biden predicted that within six months of taking office, a President Barack Obama would be tested on the international stage by a crisis. While the rest of the world shares the jubilant emotions of a majority of Americans at the outcome of the election (even our “eternal enemies” in Iran and Venezuela) Russia remains petulant, because Obama has vowed to contain any Russian neo-expansionism. Are they really a threat? No.
Russia is a great power in sharp decline. They lose one million people in population every year and this is accelerating. Births now stand at 1.1 per woman, far short of the 2.4 babies each that would be needed to stabilize the population. Their eastern marches especially are being hollowed out. Russia already has more land than any other nation, and its population might fall to half of current levels in fifty years, which makes any potential grap for “lebensraum” inconceivable. All they have left are a few symbols of their former glory: rocket ships, a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, and a dwindling stock of aging ICBMs. The oil-based economy is taking a big hit from the collapse of commodity prices. The Kremlin seizes any enterprise that grows too big and puts their own apparatchiks in charge, cutting the legs out from any future innovation as surely as nationalizing MickeySoft or Boeing would do here.
Their sole remaining business model is a new form of hydralic despotism, disrupting the flow of oil and natural gas to artificially jack up prices and intimidate European politicians. But this is a plan which contains the seeds of its own destruction: By becoming an unreliable provider of energy, Russia accelerates European efforts to develop a sustainable energy infrastruture which doesn’t rely on fossil fuels, a process that is greatly boosted by a pre-existing European attentiveness to their own carbon footprint.
Nov 7, 2008 - 5:35 am 49. dan:i’m glad there’s so much more wisdom about russia than i expected.
russia’s goal has for decades been to take over without firing a shot. it is inherently aggressive. its greatest unknown victory has been to first blunt the impression of this aggression, and slowly direct that impression onto the US “hegemon” (a Chinese term but these are functionally the same parties), and then to slowly disappear entirely.
prior to georgia, who would not look at you funny if you tried to warn about the impending danger posed by russia? even victor bout was regarded simply as some “former kgb” “rogue capitalist” with a few old transport planes and a few exotic connections.
and yet no one seems to want to acknowledge that iran would not be a problem were it not for russia. chavez would be nothing without russian help. darfur would be a typical african hobbesian jungle were it not for china. and so on.
there is a bloc. its greatest is the reflex of so many americans to hobble the domestic political party that dares to meet this aggression (usually when it is too late).
i have come to believe, though, that this russo-chinese (communist) strategy is understood by the “cold warriators” - cheney, rumsfeld, gates, and the rest. the iraq invasion is a part of our slow, barely-politically-tolerable counterstrategy. because these people know that, when the international collective imagination has been tenderized to just the right point of oblivion to actual aggression and tuned up to just the right pitch of gullibility concerning the supposed fascism of their own leaders - there will be a quick succession of crises, culminating in a big attack on our forward-deployed combat positions. china will take taiwan, russia will retake ukraine. hezbollah, and perhaps iran, will attack. the US will be hit very hard, and very suddenly.
really it’s hard to know what will happen. but it is certain that our foreign russo-chinese enemies must regard this moment and this presidency as absolutely propitious for them. we can only hope they are behind in their preparations. otherwise, something is coming - soon.
Nov 7, 2008 - 5:35 am 50. Lifeofthemind:Rahm Emanuel was not a member of the IDF and has no combat record. That bit of resume enhancement is part of the fantasy campaign the Democrats continue to put out. He was a civilian volunteer at an IDF base rust proofing brakes for a short time because the Persian Gulf War broke out while he was visiting Israel and Saddam was launching missiles. He is a punk and a thug.
Nov 7, 2008 - 5:37 am 51. FH:Wow those Russians, one more F-You to President Bush. They have been clear they don’t like our expansionist policies and here is another example of how they will respond to those policies. We push to include Eastern European countries with NATO and they move missiles into place to counter that move. Oh well I guess in 2 months it will be the Dems problem.
Nov 7, 2008 - 5:51 am 52. Lifeofthemind:What should we be doing to rebuild our armed forces and respond to a distributed series of threats from Russia, Iran and Venezuela, and China on the side? The readers of this forum can advocate sensible plans that would be well within our capabilities and would include restoring the robustness of our strategic and conventional forces that were reduced without any significant benefit to our economy. In fact returning to 1,000 ready ICBMs and doubled maneuver forces would be good for the economy. It is certainly better to spend money on ships and steel workers than on sociologists and community organizers.
Unfortunately that debate is now over. While I personally feel that the evidence of vote fraud, foreign money and active subversion, is enough to make the results illegitimate so that I feel no loyalty to Obama as the product of a coup d’etat, my opinion counts for exactly zip. Obama will be the President come January. The policies he will pursue in both domestic and international affairs can be anticipated. What we can do to survive and hope to rebuild should be a focus of our efforts now.
Nov 7, 2008 - 5:58 am 53. programmer:“One does not need buildings, money, power, or status to practice the Art of Peace. Heaven is right where you are standing, and that is the place to train.”
“Be grateful even for hardships, setbacks, and bad people. Dealing with such obstacles is an essential part of training in the Art of Peace.”
(from The Art of Peace, Shambhala Pocket Classics, 1992, translated and compiled and translated and compiled by John Stevens.)
Just so!
Nov 7, 2008 - 7:11 am 54. chuck,:I’d like to float another possibility. Are we and Russia enemies purely out of force of habit, sleepwalking into needless quarrels because of 70-80 years of a cement-hard mindsets?
What if–purely for argument’s sake- Russia’s ambitions run more like this? First, to recover their various Alsace-Lorraines, whose loss must burn in every Russian patriot’s gut. It would mine. After the Franco Prussian War, the statue of Strasbourg in the Place de la Concorde was draped in black. The crepe stayed there for nearly 50 years, until 1914. Russia, too, wants “la Ravanche”. Reread Medvedev’s words in #35. Sometimes nations do what they do because they have honor. I’m pretty sure Russia will succeed here.
It won’t necessarily be the USSR back from the dead, Autocratic Russian Empire 2.0 is more likely. As for future plans,it might strike Putin & co that Switzerland isn’t a bad role model. Why not be a gigantic, armed but peaceable Switzerland , making obscene heaps of money off oil and gas instead of banking, and instead of having the Alps for protection, have tens of thousands of nukes? What if what Russia ultimately wants are peace, prosperity so it can be the world’s largest maternity ward? Put Obama aside for the moment, and would to God it could be longer than just a moment, what should an intelligent and competent US Government’s stance be towards such a Russia? I could live with this Russia, happily.
No. I haven’t a shred of evidence for any of this. Nothing here but speculation. I’m just a nobody in 2nd class on this beautiful Titanic known as the United States, but let’s get this one right because we got plenty of problems already, not least our new captain. Is Russia an iceberg we really have to hit?
Nov 7, 2008 - 7:19 am 55. Missles of November:[...] did not wait six months to test President-elect Obama according to PJ. Former Spook, an ex-intelligence analyst, described Russia’s deployment of SS-26 Iskander to [...]
Nov 7, 2008 - 7:54 am 56. Shivermetimbers:If oil is trading at $60 a barrel now, what would happen if we started selling our strategic reserves on the open market? What would it do to Russia, Iran and Venezuela if we pushed oil down below $50 a barrel?
Also, we should be drilling our asses off, using coal, and looking for alternative energy sources. There is an Israeli MIT professor who designed 2 power plants in Arizona that uses algae to convert into biofuel (algae can grow in even the murkiest of water), the fuel then powers electric plants. The carbon emissions from the power plant are then used to channel into the growth of new algae).
Unfortunately, we have a president, and a large portion of the US who don’t want to drill and don’t want to use coal (and view the US as the cause of all problems).
Prospects don’t look too promising in the short term.
Nov 7, 2008 - 8:01 am 57. cedarford:wretchard:
Anybody who’s ever taken care of a sick person knows that when the patient is sufficiently weakened all kinds of bad things happen at once. Bed sores, infection, pneumonia, high blood pressure, low blood pressure, blood chemistry imbalances. It’s like the whole system goes “tilt”.
While the world is not yet in that state — I hope — catastrophes can cascade with alarming rapidity.
That is also the “body analogy” of overcommitment, entangling alliances that George Washington argued against and WWI vindicated the vision of. Now we see the economic version as the poisoned finacial paper from NYC and London sickened the planet.
When systems and commitments become overloaded, they all can cascade as the weakened organization fails in one area, then weakened further, stressed - sees other systems and commitments humming along just fine only days or hours earlier also crash.
With the US, we see our lack of competitive trade fueling CHina’s Rise, their military - and gutting the American technology and industry that helped us create the great military. Which then cascades into others seeing us weaken economically and testing our overcommitted military - and we find ourselves having to let things get away from us (Venezuela, Pakistan, Mexico screwing us dumping tens of millions of unwanted low skill people on us.)
The doctors seeing a collapsing patient can do things to stop cascading failures - diet and drugs so the diabetes doesn’t advance to major circulatory problems that then cause heart problems that cause more collapse and then kidney failure and so on. The main thing with a weakened patient or nation is to shed as much as possible of the burdens - allowing the patient or nation as a whole to survive.
Sometimes that involves giving up things a patient or nation doesn’t want to give up. A diabetic gangrenous leg that used to work just fine, a big chunk of bowel grown tumorous. Waking up with a tube shoved down your throat and a machine breathing for you and IV’s feeding you is One Big Uh-Oh! Moment.
A beloved piece of empire, a sea once called the Royal Navy or Venetian’s “Pond”. Perhaps a nation that once believed it could afford to be the “indispensible” nation spending money and shedding blood to help out 80 other nations….Treaties or proclaimed “moral obligations” to lock you in to wars those 80 nations might start, people waiting for you to blow treasure and lives in 180 other countries so others do not have to do the same and lose people and wealth on every disaster, conflict…
Unsk - The SDI work in Eastern Europe was meant to deter Iran. It’s not our fault that Russia wants to assist Iran in it’s nuclear ambitions.
The “we must be sensitive to Russia’s historical imperial ambitions ” argument is crap. We must make it crystal clear, by words and deeds, to Russia and Putin that either they join the Free World , play by the rules, and reap the benefits or the days of Russia as a world power are over. And we do have the power still to make that happen.
1. The location of a missile - radar capacity in N Europe, presently outside Iranian missile range - that proposes to “watch Iran” by scanning through everything that moves in Ukraine and the 1/3 of Russia with most its people and industrial-military capacity has most people questioning the rationale of it.
Especially since Iran is no present threat, and such an installation made a lot more sense where Russia counter-proposed - locate in Azerbaijan or Turkey with the radar pointed in the direction of Iran. Not through Russia - where any plane Russia put up would be tracked and targeted by NATO missiles if worst came to worst.
2. Why do you say Russia is assisting Iran in its nuclear ambititions? Do you mean peaceful nuke power plants of the sort that Iran once had agreement with the USA to build 35 or so over 30 years, before the Islamic Revolution? Did we not, also with the agreement of the IAEA that we were as legal as Russia is - just assist in developing the peaceful nuclear ambitions of India?
Have we not actually skirted the IAEA by insisting that Our Special Friend, Israel - not be barred from scientific conferences and dual use technology as a NPT violator?
Russia is actually more in compliance on not spreading it’s nuclear know-how and guarding its secrets from Chinese and Israeli spies than we are, historically.
3. Insisting on the Neocon agenda - pushing Freedom! as an excuse to invade other countries or subvert their governments and then aggressively station US/NATO forces there facing a long-time rival of the West - is really no different than what the Neocons rose from - Communist true believers - justifying spreading economic and social justice through subversion and military force.
Lines are being drawn and various nations are saying there are limits to the meddling of America under a Neocon-Wilsonian claim of a “right” to intrude anywhere to support Freedom! as they define it..No different than us laying out limits to imperial or communist meddling in our sphere of interst and going to war over it (Spain, and after we found Germany was scheming against us in Mexico propelling us into WWI). Or near-war or war through proxies at Communist efforts to spread their version of Freedom! for the proletariate.
Sigintel - I sure as hell hope Obama has the brains to make General Petreas head of the Joint Chiefs.
I’m not sure why you wish for that, other than he and his people got one phase of the overall military mission - a subspecialty, counterinsurgency - right. That is a small force against what are mainly civilians armed with primitive weapons. There are hundreds of other candidates (generalists, AF SDI, strategic Naval command Pacific - out there that may make far better Chair JCS - that you don’t know about because they lack Petraeus’s present celebrity.
Nov 7, 2008 - 8:35 am 58. Cannoneer No. 4:Everybody who was contemplating civil war last month will be glad to know that most of their caches in preparation for CWII will also come in right handy for post-attack chaos, break down of law and order, and imposition of martial law. Preserving your stash from involuntary redistribution by the Civilian National Security Force will present tactical problems very similar to civil war.
Nov 7, 2008 - 8:39 am 59. RW:Fine work by our host writer, Rikard and some excellent analysis of the short term. Russia is not acting out of stagnation, a bad mood or feeling cranky. Putin is playing chess here and we can only hope that someone can convince Obama that playing checkers and punting to the UN is absurd. (His last suggestion after declaring moral equivalence between Georgia and Russia.)
Russia is not merely flexing its muscles here for exercise. They are doing so as part of a series of moves. The election results here merely moved the series into quick succession. Expect more aggressive posturing toward Georgia and worse yet, expect some threatening moves toward Ukraine if not outright hostile action.
Russia is limbering up and looking to establish itself as the big bully in the neighborhood. They clearly do not have much concern about Obama and his soft power perspective to talk them to death. They are fine with it and once having swallowed the near abroad, they will quickly move to use their energy production to intimidate Western Europe.
From the looks of it, the Germans will be the first to fold. Sarkozy will probably look to align with the US and stand up to the Russian bear. Sadly, he may not like who has his back.
This is going to be get far worse before it gets better. The real world is not kind in geo-political action. Putin as former head of the KGB will hardly be waiting to see how Obama’s infactuation with all things left allows him to respond. He’ll just go ahead and take what he wants, thank you very much.
And who will stop him?
Nov 7, 2008 - 9:16 am 60. rocketeer:Does anyone remember Jimmy Carter with Iran? That’s exactly what we get to look forward to for the next four years with Russia, Iran, North Korea, China, and every other third world thug that has managed to gain power somewhere.
But at least the rest of the world loves us now…
Nov 7, 2008 - 9:19 am 61. Lifeofthemind:@rocketeer,
The rest of the world despises losers. Remember what OBL said about the strong horse and the weak horse. Expect at least three things:
Nov 7, 2008 - 9:31 am 62. SAF:1. Putin will take down BHO’s pants in public and spank him.
2. Next everyone except Old Europe will go kill crazy just because they can.
3. Finally everyone will blame America.
The movement of missiles by the Russians is simply a diversionary tactic designed to take our eye off the real ball; oil prices and supply. The Russians well know we mean them no military harm so the move can only be for psychological strategic reasons. I think this emboldens the Iranians who must feel the Russians are willing and capable of going toe to toe with the US.
The end game for the Russians is to cause a mid east conflict with Israel and Iran as their proxy in order to disrupt the flow of oil and drive the prices back to the $150BB level where they easily win the economic war by depleting the west.
Oddly enough the one thing Obama could do to counteract all of this is to unleash drilling all around the US and make us energy independent over time. And it is probably the one thing he won’t do.
A military response to the latest provocation is a waste of money.
Nov 7, 2008 - 10:23 am 63. sigintel:Sigintel - I sure as hell hope Obama has the brains to make General Petreas head of the Joint Chiefs.
I’m not sure why you wish for that, other than he and his people got one phase of the overall military mission - a subspecialty, counterinsurgency - right. That is a small force against what are mainly civilians armed with primitive weapons. There are hundreds of other candidates (generalists, AF SDI, strategic Naval command Pacific - out there that may make far better Chair JCS - that you don’t know about because they lack Petraeus’s present celebrity.
Why Petraeus? Because he does have the celebrity and is viewed by most in the US as the general who won the Iraq war. Obama needs a military man who is respected by the Russian’s and AQ and since Iran is the real culprit, we need a JCS Chair who’s steeped in the strategic and tactical situation there.
Nov 7, 2008 - 10:55 am 64. Donna V.:Finally everyone will blame America
Life of the mind: Yes, that is the constant, and will be no matter who is president.
Now the world reaction to Obama’s election makes American libs feel like Sally Field at the Oscars: “You like me! You really, really like me!”
Well, yes, they like us because they believe the US will now become a second-rate power and take marching orders from the UN. If Obama has more of a backbone than I think he has, the honeymoon will soon be over. If he caves easily - well, the honeymoon will be over soon too, because the Europeans who despise American power will have second thoughts once military bases in Europe start closing and they have to defend themselves for a change.
Nov 7, 2008 - 11:02 am 65. deguello:Bravo Russia! Let’s see the laundered thug and Al Sharpton-after-a watkins-diet,miracle monger, deal with the realities of power politics. As for the Europeans:let ‘em eat,Russian steel!
Nov 7, 2008 - 12:14 pm 66. locke:The comments and discussion in this section are some of the most insightful I have read in the “footer” section of a blog. Question from a strategically and tactically-challenged reader: when Russia looks our way, what do they see? are they making moves toward a grand design whose predicate is our decline or overextension? Are they playing the balance of power from a calculation of their own long-term decline and short-term opportunity?
Nov 7, 2008 - 12:28 pm 67. dan:i’ll take a shot locke. notice, for example, that even the today show this morning ran a quick headline update about chinese hackers having infiltrated the white house network and stolen emails and other information.
allow me to introduce you to a theory once considered exotic but which events render more plausible - and more dangerous - every month or so. it goes a little something like this.
once upon a time there was a slovenly belligerent nation called Russia that was taken over and cannibalized by zealots promising peace and bread but in fact delivering tens of millions of corpses and famine-as-a-weapon.
the cannibals said it was “a revolution,” implying the whole people deposed the wicked king and chose this new state of affairs. in reality, it was a coup; the slogan “revolution,” like the slogan “peace,” was simply a deception offered to enough people so hungry for such things that they would knock down their own nation and its history, as if it were nothing but a stage set obstructing a better view, to get it. instead they got a concentration camp country, which spent the next 80 years overtly dedicated to spreading the same “revolution” abroad.
but who was it who was doing this to everyone? lenin’s cheka, the first name for the kgb.
now this all sounds conspiratorial enough except when you realize that the kgb was, in fact, the state - the people had nothing to do with anything but to act as human labor for the politburo’s various enterprises. who was it who executed “counterrevolutionaries”? the kgb. who was it who enforced ideological conformity and conformity with the general secretary of the politburo? the kgb. who was it who kept the iron revolutionary discipline among the people, largely by terrorizing them 24 hours a day with incredible ingenuity? the kgb.
who shot all those retreating red army soldiers in the back in order to defeat the wehrmacht? the kgb. how did the politburo so closely control deeply catholic societies like poland, or fiercely nationalistic like hungary, or complex agrarian societies like vietnam, or caribbean paradises like cuba? the kgb, which created little kgbs.
in short, what *was* the soviet union? what really is *communism*? the kgb.
now, the kgb runs russia. moreover, former kgb - who else knew how to govern, however perversely - many former Soviet bloc societies. who governs china, vietnam, cuba, laos, to name a few?
just because they’ve dispensed with the hammer and sickle and the annoying marxist-leninist verbiage doesn’t take the essence of “communism” out of these human beings which animated the actual societies the USSR & Co. once ruled. you don’t believe 50 year old executioners one day in 1991 decided to become Anglo-Saxon liberals, i am sure.
well, whether it was intended or not, Russia has benefited greatly from a gigantic anonymity since the Soviet demise. ever hear of anything about Russia that isn’t completely deferential or sympathetic, or - if it is too outrageous to be treated that way - explained simply as bizarre?
isn’t that interesting?
and yet russia is now providing hugo chavez with nuclear technology and weapons; chavez has reciprocated with basing rights for the soviet fleet - oops russian fleet. putin offered saudi arabia and egypt nuclear rights. clearly russia gave nuclear know-how to north korea. there is something called the Shanghai Cooperation Organization which provides a public excuse for much deeper strategic coordination.
the purpose is to pursue a strategy to hobble the USA, to split NATO apart, to expose South Asia to Russian domination, or perhaps Sino-Russian…
and that’s the tricky part. it’s very pragmatic, this strategy, very slow, very subtle - or, when circumstances suit, flamboyant. it is not easy to understand how the pieces fit. but the greatest asset they have is that no one wants to look - because if someone did, then we’d have to do something about it.
the obama presidency is the culmination of the plan. i’m not saying he is an agent, but look at his background: what, did he not listen to all those communists? how could that be. he is essentially programmed - like almost all socialists and communists - not to appreciate the danger to which their ideological sympathies and proccpations expose them. obama doesn’t *need* to be their agent. he only has to be predictably weak.
the thing i wonder is this: as they assassinated kennedy, what if they - or a “conservative” agent - assassinated obama? wouldn’t the USA lose it’s f*cking mind? and - my god! - what better way to weaken and demoralize the USA than to, like a lightning bolt out of a clear November day, obliterate its great new hope?
i’m sorry this was so long. but trust me this is the subject to get into, if you can keep your wits about you. something bad is going to happen. soon.
Nov 7, 2008 - 1:08 pm 68. Konyok:The Medvedev/Putin announcement of deployment of SS-26 to Kaliningrad is possibly more directed at distracting the Russian public from the collapse of Russian markets and the disappearance of the much touted “Stabilization Fund” which invested heavily in toxic US mortgage securities.
Nov 7, 2008 - 1:22 pm 69. dan:The timing of the announcement was probably deliberate. Not to challenge Obama, but, rather, not to benefit McCain.
That they would deploy to Kaliningrad, an exposed salient surrounded by NATO Poland and Lithuania, seems to me more defensive than offensive in nature. I think there was probably a tacit agreement between Bush and Putin that there would be no US forces deployed in a NATO Poland. Now that US Patriot batteries are being deployed to Poland, the Russians feel that they must respond.
Medvedev’s “altruistic” offer to change the presidential term to six years after his tenure seems an explicit signal that Volodya Putin will return to the presidency.
all this about salients and distracting the populace - konyok, why would you have to deploy missiles to control a population in a country in which you control *all* the media?
please, we must get beyond these parlor games of “who benefits” and “force deployment.”
i don’t mean to be rude, but the major strategic facts are: putin and the kgb run russia. russia, despite its nasty conditions (has always, Always had nasty conditions), runs the energy grids of most of eastern europe, including over 40% of Germany, the center of the EU. moreover, the EU has neither the combat power nor the political will to resist small doses of military or political encroachment. our lovely liberals do not understand that in choosing the expediencies like “anti-war” and “we’ll give you free healthcare” they are also demonstrating profound lack of courage to our enemies. they believe enemies are what conservatives invent to manipulate people.
fine.
and yet there is putin, arranging for his own return - and to a post that will be 6 years instead of 4 years. and yet only the eccentrics seem to care. people talk about iran, as if persian thieves dressed as clerics knew f*ck-all about nuclear weaponry.
we must not distract ourselves with these little court intrigues and salients and whatnot. that is for the prostitutes at the new york times. please. think big.
Nov 7, 2008 - 2:30 pm 70. BuzzK:In 1889, Lord Curzon wrote:
“To keep England quiet in Europe by keeping her employed in Asia, that, briefly put, is the sum and substance of Russian policy.”
Is there an analog, as “briefly put,” today?
Nov 7, 2008 - 2:43 pm 71. Konyok:dan,
The announcement, making the missle deployment public has EVERYTHING to do with massaging public opinion.
There is no oversight of the Russian military. Medvedev/Putin order and the generals obey - the state duma has NO authority. There is NO reason to announce deployments except to massage public opinion. The message is both domestic and international, different audiences read different things.
Our military already has a pretty good idea of what is where. The main task that the Polish military has wargamed and trained for is neutralizing the Kaliningrad salient. The Russians are very vulnerable there.
As Wretchard pointed out, the innovation in this announcement is the threat to jam our radars. We are not privy to whether that has taken place, or if they actually have the expertise to do so. This sounds an awful lot like their previous claims to have perfected a new stealth technology and missle-defense-proof ICBMS. I am reminded of the crappy performance of their *state of the art* air defense system in Syria when the IDF took out the nuclear site.
There is no grand Russian plan. There is merely a desperate scramble to survive.
Nov 7, 2008 - 2:58 pm 72. dan:konyok - you may be right. the most plausibe explanation for kgb domination of russia is just that they’re the only organization capable of doing so. even if you don’t call it kgb, the institutions basically persist, just as the geostrategic arrangements basically persist. and since the kgb received its discipline from the politburo and central committee, so putin & co. replaced these bodies with their party United Russia and its equivalents. meanwhile, the populace is demoralized, unhealthy, and either fleeing or dying early. china threatens the nearly unpopulated eastern steppers simply by transferring its population there, first on work visas, then perhaps with families, if that should come to pass. its armed forces decay. its energy diplomacy is ham-handed. no one is fooled by its double-talk with respect to its “near abroad.”
and yet, as plausible and natural an analysis as this seems, there is always the air of mystery about kremlin intentions and activities. there is the curious relationship with iran, and now chavez. there are maneuvors in central asia and bombers testing US airspace and naval battlegroups. there is he yamantu mountain complex. there is the dmitri donskoi in the western hemisphere.
and, more importantly, there are revelations by kgb defectors who come to tell us, in different decades under very different circumstances and in different mediums, that subversion - not direct military threat - was always all along the USSR’s and KGB’s main weapon against the capitalist West. and you read about Aldrich Ames, arrested 1994. you read exotic theories about orchestrated revolutions in Eastern Europe - and realize that the ‘revolution’ there was amazingly bloodless, considering the regime that was toppled. and didn’t it all seem a little top-down, anyway? after all, the soviets had been great organizers of mass demonstrations even just after world war 2 in east germany - even before it was “east” germany.
you read about operations like TRUST and WiN. you read revelations about the Cuban Missile Crisis, and the incredible statecraft it revealed, not at all the picture you thought you knew.
doesn’t it make you think - hey, wait a minute. so, what’re they doing now then? did they all just spontaneously combust on Christmas Day 1991?
Nov 7, 2008 - 3:21 pm 73. dan:and what about that charming youngish man with the suspiciously brilliant career who was just elected? that guy who seems to have been surrounded entirely by communists since he was in the womb?
what if the strategy - as the defectors tell us over and over - is not war: it is subversion? after all, a whole state run by espionage - that is, a police state - would be pretty good at it, and moreover have a ton of practice at it, right?
and have you ever heard of “gray terror”? that in preparation for World War III the KGB would first employ terrorist groups untracable to the USSR to destabilize the West? i’ve read about such tactics published in the 1980s.
hey who knows. i’m just throwing it out there. maybe it means nothing. but it seems like people should be aware of it.
Nov 7, 2008 - 3:27 pm 74. Marc Malone:cedarford - As usual, I agree with some of your post and not with other parts. All in all this time, I agree with enough not to bother to nitpick. Good stuff. Actually, that goes for just about everyone this time. Some damned fine blogging.
Nov 7, 2008 - 4:09 pm 75. Konyok:dan,
To some extent, and at times, Soviet Communism had the idealistic appeal to recruit foreigners to the historic cause.
Today’s kleptocratic Russia has no such appeal. Putin offers Russians order and echoes of glory, but there is no ideological infrastructure beyond nationalism.
Russia is dangerous, but she is in irreversible decline.
Nov 7, 2008 - 5:06 pm 76. dan:well, i hope you’re right konyok.
Nov 7, 2008 - 7:04 pm 77. Marc Malone:Dan - He’s right. Russia is suffering widespread disease (dysentery, I believe). Between that, chronic alcoholism, and low-birthrate, they are heading for near-term extinction. This is the flailing of a dying dinosaur, the final evidence of Marxism.
Nov 7, 2008 - 9:40 pm 78. kabud:so far here is an optimistic prediction:
Ukrainian President Yushenko should
announce a diplomatic effort for the alternative to anti-missile defense in Poland
as a peaceful gesture to demonstrate to Russia that there is NO INTENT TO CIRCLE RUSSIA in a hostile manner
As an alternative to anti-missile defense in Poland
same facility can be installed in UK or Sweden or..
SECOND.
Yushenko offers Russia to install Russian anti-missile defense in Ukraine and aim it at IRAN.
Well Russia agreed that there is a threat of nuclear proliferation to Iran.
This plan would through Russia off balance in its deception plan and
if Kremlin refuses to protect Europe from Ukrainian territory:
Germans will have to face that the union with Russia is not worth it: Kremlin is not helping its allies
Nov 7, 2008 - 10:54 pm 79. kabud:America has developed a serious weakness as well as blindness, and the Russians are eager to take advantage of a developing situation. In fact, they have the sophistication to manipulate the U.S. in a variety of ways. I want to add, especially, that Golitsyn is not a god and his analysis is not 100 percent correct. There are many mysteries with regard to the inner workings of the “former” Soviet power structures. We do not understand how these structures work (in detail) because they are so secretive. We do not know what the principal players actually believe (in terms of ideological orientation). But one thing I am certain of, after watching their behavior for the past 15 years: Golitsyn is right in terms of the final tendency of Russian politics. Whatever the “changes” in the communist world signify, there has been a consistent effort to use these changes to detach America from Europe, to build a military alliance with China, to retool Soviet war industries, to use criminal organizations as allies in a secret war, to sabotage America’s economic system via control of raw material inputs and the penetration of major banks, to ultimately isolate and destabilize the United States, and to destroy any chance of it rising from the ashes or using its nuclear arsenal. Following that, the power structures of Moscow and Beijing plan to split the world into spheres of influence, with lesser nations having a share in “looting rights.” One might think of this process as a grand strategic proposition that never dies or surrenders. It simply adjusts itself to new conditions and new requirements. The inner nature of the leaders in Moscow has not changed (whatever their ideological pretensions), and this should be obvious because real change — internal change — rarely happen in this world. Whether Golitsyn’s accurate predictions are due to his own previous involvement with KGB strategists, or to psycho-sociological intuition, he has correctly anticipated the overall direction of international affairs. My own thinking owes a great deal to his insights
http://www.jrnyquist.com/nyquist_2004_1218.htm
Nov 7, 2008 - 11:42 pm 80. Rachel Peepers:“The timing of Russia’s disturbing missile deployment plan is not coincidental.”
Richard Fernandez, please tell me you didn’t write this lead in to your article.
One would have to be as out of touch with reality as an Obama voter to believe the missile deployment was coincidental to the election in any way.
Say it ain’t so.
Nov 8, 2008 - 12:26 am 81. Rachel Peepers:Dan,
You and Malone and a few other of you missive writers should get together with John Clancy and turn about five books into a few mill.
Nov 8, 2008 - 12:54 am 82. wpb:Rachel likes the way you guys write, not to mention how you think. Now make money doing it. Good work.
Kabud - I agree and if we assume the first move was for Russia to reassert it’s sphere of influence over the Georgian Republic (why would we go to war over the birthplace of Stalin?) a logical second move would be to do the same with the Ukraine, who’s “independence” is something the Russian’s have never been happy about.
Maybe the real question is the one you alluded to: has Russia really changed (it appears not) and should we accept their “natural” inclination to exert influence over their former satellites?
Nov 8, 2008 - 3:58 am 83. Rob Murphy:With Europe unwilling to do any heavy lifting on it’s own, and NATO a shell of it’s former self, I think we should focus on our own sphere of influence (in our hemishpere), and make sure we aggressively confront Russian mischief making in Cuba, Venzeuela, Bolivia, and Central America. Missiles & bombers in Cuba or South America concern me much more than Poland and the Ukraine.
52. Lifeofthemind
While I personally feel that the evidence of vote fraud, foreign money and active subversion, is enough to make the results illegitimate so that I feel no loyalty to Obama as the product of a coup d’etat, my opinion counts for exactly zip.
You sound like the Dems over the Florida chad thang, LOTM.
But I agree.
Nov 8, 2008 - 4:18 am 84. chuck,:I expect that not only will Russia regain its former territories, it will to all intents and purposes Finlandize the EU nations. Given the bossiness of the Brussels regime and its indifference to the popular will, it and Moscow may get along quite well under this arrangement, much better than it did with those erratic Americans. Now, if Russia could only “borrow” a hundred million of those Europeans and settle them along the Chinese border….
Heck, as far as that goes, there are likely millions of American Conservatives who’d love not to live in coming The Peoples Republic of Obamistan.
Nov 8, 2008 - 4:51 am 85. Rob Murphy:84.Chuck
A decaying Russia will Finlandize the EU?
Is that before or after western europe’s in-house Islmaic replacement population takes over?
Nov 8, 2008 - 5:22 am 86. Rob Murphy:Islamic
Nov 8, 2008 - 5:24 am 87. chuck,:Rob,
Well, it’ not uncommon for two elderly and failing people to tie the knot, particularly when they are as temperamentally compatible as are Moscow and Brussels. And it doesn’t hurt that one of the parties is so dependent on the other’s oil and gas. That’s said, both will eventually die of demographics. In the meantime, our “European allies” are to all intents and purposes neutralized.
Nov 8, 2008 - 7:38 am 88. Larsen E Whipsnade:31. Ammo Guy:
“Excuse me…”And during Gulf War I, he [Rahm Emmanuel] fought with the IDF”? Where did that come from? ”
Elsewhere it’s been mentioned that he was a civilian volunteer mechanic with an IDF motor pool.
Nov 8, 2008 - 10:31 am 89. JJ Joseph:@49. dan said:
“i’m glad there’s so much more wisdom about russia than i expected . . . russia’s goal has for decades been to take over without firing a shot.”
This shows a profound misunderstanding of Russia. The main challenge for Russia, a backward, isolated monster, is that it is cornered by Islam. Russia has always maintained it’s identity by keeping one foot on Islam’s neck using the border republics like Georgia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Kazahkstan as buffers. Russia has never wanted to go beyond stabilizing Russia, and has never been comfortable going outside its neighborhood to other ‘hoods like Cuba or Africa. Russia doesn’t even want Ukraine - it even gave territory (Crimea) to Ukraine just to be nice. Ukraine, like Georgia, is a pain in the ass to Russia at the best of times. There’s no reason to want Ukraine, except as a buffer.
However, Russia does want to improve itself selling oil, metals, and timber. And it’s learning how to play hockey in this respect. That’s what the Bush White House doesn’t like. The Bush White House is cornering Russia against the boards, and Russia is getting really twitchy. The problem with this is that geopolitics is not two hockey teams like the Bush White House assumes. There’s a third team on the ice that’s being ignored - Islam.
Nov 8, 2008 - 10:54 am 90. kabud:Islam is nonsense :
mentality that could not tolerate basic education
dont fool yourself, learn what civilization and of course modern weapons are about
Nov 8, 2008 - 12:39 pm 91. 907ie:Storm’s coming.
Nov 8, 2008 - 6:09 pm 92. Brian Richard Allen:And coming fast.
If you haven’t, invest in some ammo before BO taxes it up to $10 per round.
As their so efficaciously previously plundered piggybank and plunging petroleum products’ prices put an end to the Russians pretending to world economic importance, that reemerging evil empire’s emperor, Colonel Putin and his putrid pack of plunderers have become the definitive backed-into-a-corner knife-armed coward.
Along with the similarly headed for economic collapse communist Chinese and with Islamanazism’s rabid barbarians and up against only the mobbed-up Marxist murtadd Muslim Arab-African, B Hussein bin B Hussayn bin Hussayn Muhummad Ubama and his fellow morally, intellectually and physically unarmed looter, mobster, racketeer and terroristic tribesmen, the Russians will almost inevitably enjoy a (make the most of it, Medvedev!) moth-in-the-candle moment.
Before the charcoaled corpse of their failed state — and China’s and, along with them, the Islamanazism’s every evil aspiration — plunge into history’s dustbin.
Their ignominious tumbling competently, it goes without saying, watched over by United States of America’s post-2012 President and Armed-Forces Commander-In-Chief, Sarah Palin, by Vice President, Bobby Jindal — and by an RNC Chairman Newt Gingrich-inspired and led and overwhelmingly Republican United States Congress!
PALIN/JINDAL2008!
Brian Richard Allen
Nov 8, 2008 - 11:35 pm 93. Marc Malone:Los Angeles - CalifUBAMAcated 90028
Rachel Peepers @#81 - Thanks, but I’m not sure about the Clancy-style novel. Events may well overtake the writing….
Nov 9, 2008 - 12:25 am 94. Caedmon:Pavlovian Response:
http://novaemilitiae.squarespace.com/st-george-brigade/2008/11/8/pavlovian-response.html
Medvedev is the least of your worries. Putin’s coming back, and, as many of you have so convincingly argued here, he wants the world.
Nov 9, 2008 - 10:15 pm 95. kochevnik:rocketeer,
Practically everywhere there is a third world thug operating indiscriminantly, an American administration supports him or stabbed his predecessor in the back.
Watching Americans rush to the aid of your gangster puppet Mikheil Saakashvili made me chuckle. Probably you would rush to the aid of Joseph Stalin as well, if the MSM told you to.
Russia has been onto your lame CIA orange and rose revolutions for some time. But we know that the American public has the attention span of a gnat, the memory of a rock, and the reasoning ability of a newborn. Americans break deals because they don’t remember even making them. Besides, blood is thicker than worthless US banknotes. Ukraine and Russia are inseparable on many levels.
>Does anyone remember Jimmy Carter with Iran? >That’s exactly what we get to look forward to for
>the next four years with Russia, Iran, North
>Korea, China, and every other third world thug
>that has managed to gain power somewhere.
>But at least the rest of the world loves us now…
Nov 11, 2008 - 6:03 pm 96. kabud:to kochevnik: Придурок гестаповский ты долго не проживеш
soviet cannibals killed every 2nd Ukrainian in 1917-1960
Let me assure you: either Russian people tear you bastard mob government to pieces
or Ukrainians will do it the proper way
Pray to your communist dead mummy but it will not help :
because
we will get every one of you, gestapo pigs
Nov 12, 2008 - 12:06 pm 97. Ms. Know:The left-wing illuminati aren’t going to usher in peace, so if people believed that, this world is more naive than I thought.
Nov 15, 2008 - 9:23 amSorry, comments for this entry are closed at this time.