Michael Totten looks ahead in Iraq. He reports that some people believe that Iraqi civil society is still on training wheels and that when the US leaves or withdraws into its enclaves, all the old bad habits will re-emerge.
Iraqis who think the job should only require a few more years are still pessimistic about what they think is likely to happen when the negotiated Status of Forces Agreement goes into effect and American troops withdraw from Iraqi cities in 2009. “We’ve seen hell,” an Iraqi intelligence source said when I met him in his house. “And that hell, if the American forces evacuate, will repeat. If Obama forces an evacuation from Iraq soon, everything will turn against him in this land.”
But some Americans Totten has spoken to says the end goal can never be perfection, simply improvement. They argue American efforts in Iraq have provided the basis for ‘good enough’.
I spoke to Captain AJ Boyes at Combat Outpost Ford on the outskirts of Sadr City. His company did more of the fighting in Sadr City back in the spring than any other, but he stresses that the Iraqi Army took and holds 75 percent of Sadr City all by itself. He isn’t nearly as gloomy about the future in this country as some of the others I spoke to. Though he considers himself a realist, he sounded to me like an optimist.
“If we take a snapshot of Iraqi politics, security, and governance right now in 2008,” he said, “and come back two generations from now and compare them side-by-side, I think we’ll see a huge difference. And will it be for better or for worse? I think it will be almost entirely better.”
I suspect he is probably right. Fifty years is a long time. By then the insurgency period of Iraq’s history will be as distant as King Faisal’s era is now. But what about the short and medium term? Everyone who makes policy decisions in Iraq should be far more concerned with what the country might look like in one year than in fifty.
“Will it get worse in one year?” I said to Captain Boyes. “That’s the big question.”
“Well, yes,” he said. “It will. Any time something new happens in a counterinsurgency, when there are new security forces, there is an immediate spike in violence because the insurgents are testing the ability of the new element. When we leave and transition all of what we do now to the Iraqi security forces, will there be a spike in activity? Absolutely. One hundred percent.”
Read the whole thing. Donald Rumsfeld used the analogy of training bicycle to describe what he was attempting to do in Iraq. The training bicycle analogy was superseded — but not entirely — by the concept of the Surge, which was to provide enough momentum for the rider to get the dynamic stability to get on the bike. When the Americans wind down, the Iraqi bicycle will flatten out at the bottom of the hill. Will they stay on as the bike slows and possibly wobbles? Stay tuned.
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19 Comments
1. ADE:We have to provide the Islamics a face-saving formula to allow them to change without loss of face. This is the Cuban Missile Crisis of our times.
The “US Withdrawal” is part of the formula.
ADE
Dec 1, 2008 - 5:33 pm 2. DanM:5 Years ago I was somewhat apathetic about the urge to democratize Iraq. The idea that you force a form of government on a populace that “wasn’t ready” for it seemed antithetic to the premise of freedom. I was wrong. President Bush was correct.
Good thing I wasn’t President – and someone with better vision and insight to the human character was there. A good thing that the voters in 2004 saw that also… Again, Thank You President GWB.
Dec 1, 2008 - 5:40 pm 3. Rudee:My family has been extremely involved in this experiment for the last 5 years. My husband has been working in Baghdad with logistics and we sponsored a young woman translator who received one of the hard to get special translator visas. She lived with us for 7 months and is now enlisted in the Army as an interpreter. Until she lived with us I had great hopes, now not so much so. This young woman had a masters degree in English linguistics and had worked for Dod for four years before coming here. Witnessing the differences in culture up close for so long has changed my mind about the likelihood of success. The nature of the Arab/Muslim society is so dysfunctional and unsuited for modern democracy and a free society I don’t see how we can withdraw in three years with any chance of lasting change. The symbiosis of tribal life and Islam seems to mold a society that is at the simultaneous moment aggressive and abrasive and claimant to victim status. The shame culture leads to perpetual deceit and the inability to reconcile one’s mistakes and make changes. The perpetual degradation of women is abetted by other women and results in a male female dynamic we in the west would never tolerate. From my discussions with our guest, who blamed her sister for her brother’s repeated beatings of same sister, the entire nation suffers from battered woman syndrome. Then there is the Inshallah syndrome, which means you never have to take initiative or sort anything out really, much less think rationally.
Dec 1, 2008 - 5:47 pm 4. Lifeofthemind:my husband sent me an NCIS paper written by 3 psychologists on cultural differences and I had been able to witness every single one of them. And this was from someone who was amenable to US culture. The differences are so severe I’m not sure how we affect real change.
To effect real change in place like Iraq I am beginning to think that we would have to overtly occupy it for almost 3 generations. The reason that God made the Israelites wander in the desert for 40 years was to ensure that the generation that had been brought up in slavery died off before entering the Promised Land. Once two generations had been raised in freedom the people were fit to have the new country.
We should never have allowed a sharia constitution to be written for Iraq and we should never have indicated that we were in any hurry to withdraw. We should have insisted on real multiculturalism with real freedom of worship. We should have flooded the country with enough troops to ensure that a 16 year old girl could walk in a string bikini and jewelry from Mosul to Basrah without a hand raised against her or a harsh word spoken. We should have encouraged and protected missionaries, Christian, Jewish, Buddhist or Wiccan for that matter.
Dec 1, 2008 - 6:47 pm 5. Dr. T:Rudee,
Your comments are striking and insightful.
I’ve spent a lot of time in Russia and the ex-USSR and have described the psychology there in similar terms: like most of the population has battered-child syndrome, and refuses to turn away from the battering parent.
We here in the US greatly underestimate the long-term psychological and social consequences of both cultural and ideological (post-totalitarian) oppression. Among my Russian friends, even those who have emigrated and are most pro-Western are still held in some form of bondage–e.g. believing the news they hear from Russian state sources, even though they should know better.
Dec 1, 2008 - 6:56 pm 6. Ruby:Life of the Mind: The reason that God made the Israelites wander in the desert for 40 years was to ensure that the generation that had been brought up in slavery died off before entering the Promised Land. Once two generations had been raised in freedom the people were fit to have the new country.
That is not correct. God told Moses to preach and water would come from the rock. Instead of preaching, Moses struck the rock, twice, as though it was his own power that brought water. And this hacked the LORD off, so he said Moses would not lead the people into Canaan.
Numbers:20:[10] And Moses and Aaron gathered the congregation together before the rock, and he said unto them, Hear now, ye rebels; must we fetch you water out of this rock? [11] And Moses lifted up his hand, and with his rod he smote the rock twice: and the water came out abundantly, and the congregation drank, and their beasts also. [12] And the LORD spake unto Moses and Aaron, Because ye believed me not, to sanctify me in the eyes of the children of Israel, therefore ye shall not bring this congregation into the land which I have given them.
We should never have allowed a sharia constitution to be written for Iraq
Then we should have never announced we are bringing democracy to Iraq. Because it is a central feature of democracy that the people get to write their own constitution. We should have just said we are colonizing Iraq, here’s your constitution, like it or not.
We should have encouraged and protected missionaries, Christian, Jewish, Buddhist or Wiccan for that matter.
Of those four faiths, only Christianity is proselytizing. There is no such thing as a Jewish, Buddhist, or Wiccan missionary.
Dec 1, 2008 - 7:20 pm 7. NahnCee:Rudee – there are signs of a feminist revolt in Saudi Arabia. It’s been brewing for years now, but they’re setting up refuge houses for battered women and starting to prosecute men who beat and rape their women. Also it looks to me like women will be driving in that hell-hole within the next few years.
I totally understand your pessimism, especially regarding Iraqi women being NOT supportive of each other. But that sort of bitchery is inherent, I think, and once it’s pointed out maybe can be overcome. Now that Iraq is open up to movies and TV and literature describing a different way of life, surely they will be able to eventually get it together at least as well as the Saudi’s.
Dec 1, 2008 - 7:43 pm 8. jaymaster:OK, so let’s talk about Israel. That’s the most similar case we have to Iraq. It’s been around about 60 years now.
It’s arguable that the streets of Iraq are safer than those in Israel. But what if Iraq looks like Israel does today 50 years down the road?
What if its citizens have to deal with a weekly rocket barrage from Iran? Would that be a success?
Dec 1, 2008 - 7:49 pm 9. Rudee:Dr T,
You are right about the Saddam regime and its effects on the mental state. There is still much shame in Iraq about those 30 years, as in he was a monster, but he was our monster.
Nahncee,
Dec 1, 2008 - 8:11 pm 10. Mike Sylwester:Over the course of the next fifty years you may see that kind of change, but it will take enormous effort. Our guest watched US tv for years, a huge help in developing her english proficiency. But, it didn’t really help her understand the american culture, only the depraved entertainment culture and it colored her view of the US in a way I can only see as very negative. Seinfeld and Friends were her favorite shows and she could never quite understand why I found them inappropriate for my 11 year old. In large part she was shocked about two things in the states, sex was not the be all and end all in American life and people could have a great life but they had to work very hard. She told that to all her friends who thought of coming here, you have to work. The Army is really a great fit for her. She completed boot camp, a true achievement for anyone who has nver done anything physical in her life. I remember her second day here we walking up a path at Jamestown (might as well teach some history) when she said to my daughter lets race and she ran for the first time in 20 years. The other aspect of life in the Army that suits someone from her culture is the hierarchical/collective nature. Iraqis are never alone they always exist as part of some kind of group, family, tribe, friends and are easily bored if not given something to do and someone to do it with. She will thrive with clear directions and parameters to work within. The Army also made her stop wearing a head scarf which she also stopped wearing on her leave in civies. The Army allows her a secure environment in which she can learn and gradually assimilate into American culture. Inshallah has been replaced by “you never know what the Army will do.
Some people are brave leaders, and they will set good examples for others to follow. In a society where the masses have been intimidated and suppressed, many people are looking very attentively for such leaders to step forward. Then they will watch those brave people very attentively. In such a situation, a few leaders can make a profound impression on many ordinary people.
Every such leader in Iraq will have suffered and fallen and picked himself up. None will have been born with a silver spoon in his mouth and have coasted through life. They will understand how to deal with the difficulties and seize the opportunities of their own society.
Iraq will have many problems but will make steady progress.
I have been married for 14 years to a Lithuanian woman, so I have visited Lithuania every year for the past eight years. I see progress every year. Most obvious to the foreign tourist is the construction and renovation of buildings. The shopping malls there look like the shopping malls here in the USA.
Less obvious but more important is the social transformation. Practically everyone has traveled abroad. Many have lived and worked abroad. The young generation speaks good English and uses computers. They attend colleges and study business management, computer technology, chemical engineering, law. Housewives who have raised their children become accountants or sell real estate.
Iraq can have a similar future. Its oil gives it huge economic potential. In 25 years Iraq might be the most modern, wonderful country in the Middle East.
Dec 1, 2008 - 8:14 pm 11. E. Nigma:I would only quibble with the notion that Saddam Hussein was “our monster”. He was a consequence of the adsorption by the politically primitive Arab with infectious, but sick, Western ideas, such as fascism and communism. Western nations had already tried out these ideas with differing levels of tragedy and failure, but it was new to the Arab.
Saddam was extensively trained in Soviet methods by the Soviet intelligence organs in the 1960’s (read “Republic of Fear”). Saddam, as were many of his officers, etc., trained by the Soviets in their methods and organization. Their military had heavy Soviet influence under Saddam, and were largely equipped by the USSR. Their intelligence services (the Mukhabarrat) were heavily influenced and co-ordinated with the KGB and GRU.
There were times when the US courted Saddam to gain influence, but our effectiveness was at most very superficial and limited.
Sometimes, it is not all about us.
A friend of mine who was an officer serving a year in the Green Zone told me the report he wrote upon leaving was heavily influenced by “Inshallah”. Many Iraqis are very fatalistic in ways Americans can hardly fathom. He was not too optimistic about the future of Iraq, yet he thought that “some day” things will get better.
Dec 1, 2008 - 8:41 pm 12. Mike Sylwester:Some Iraqis yearn for the freedom and opportunities of the West, and the people end up in Western Europe, Canada or here in the US. When those sorts of people can easily leave the country because they cannot overcome “inshallah”, then you know that the rest are hardly likely to rise above it either.
Rudee, you have given your guest a profound experience. Do not underestimate your influence on her or underestimate her future influence on many others.
Her experience with your family is only the beginning of a long intellectual journey that she will continue for the rest of her life. This experience will influence her always as she reads books, listens to discussions, watches films and participates in social and political activities.
Dec 1, 2008 - 8:41 pm 13. Joshua:Wretchard’s post touches on what is easily the most frustrating thing about the war in Iraq, and also the most historically unique thing (though I doubt it will stay unique for long). Barring an armistice of some kind, wars usually end after the winning and losing sides have been clearly determined. But in this war, we are basically relying on the Iraqis to finish the fight we started, which means we really won’t have any way of knowing whether we’ve won until long after we’ve left.
Dec 1, 2008 - 10:43 pm 14. Darrell:Dr T, your comment on Russia strike a chord, my son’s girlfriend is from Russia, I showed her the hot for words site, telling her there was a famous Russian women on there, I thought she would be proud but it was the opposite, she frowned and said “in Russia we look down on smart or successful people” “It is never good to appear smart” I just winced as I saw what it meant for her culture, and how it would hurt her future in the USA.
Dec 1, 2008 - 10:59 pm 15. deb:Life of the Mind: The reason that God made the Israelites wander in the desert for 40 years was to ensure that the generation that had been brought up in slavery died off before entering the Promised Land. Once two generations had been raised in freedom the people were fit to have the new country.
Ruby:
That is not correct. God told Moses to preach and water would come from the rock. Instead of preaching, Moses struck the rock, twice, as though it was his own power that brought water. And this hacked the LORD off, so he said Moses would not lead the people into Canaan.
Me: Well, that is why MOSES didn’t enter the promised land, but not why the rest of them didn’t. The people wandered for 40 years until everyone that believed the 10 spies that insisted they couldn’t take the land were dead. Only Caleb and Joshua survived to enter the land. Numbers 14
Dec 2, 2008 - 2:59 am 16. Rudee:Mike,
i hope you are correct. She has made it through her first year and is in a much better position than many.
Mike and Darrell, I witnessed a profound lack of intellectual curiosity indeed curiosity of any sort. I think it comes from not only years of oppression but also the culture. There is the fear that if you ask too many questions something will go wrong. Everything in done with a certain amount of subterfuge and superstition. But there is alos a clear lack of rational thinking. If you want to get to d you must first get through a b and c in that order. It’s like the Iraqi splice for electrical wiring, probably caused more building damage than bombs.
Getting her to believe in her worth and value as a human being was a challenge in many respects. The interesting thing about this sort of living is a simmering anger and over emotionalism about small things. The victim status.
E-nigma I meant not that he was the US’s monster but the Iraqi’s
Back to Wretchard’s original post. Iraq will take a very long time, i initially saw it as a 20-30 year project, now I see 50-60 years. Leaving after 8-9 just won’t be enough.
Dec 2, 2008 - 6:56 am 17. Staring In Disbelief:I think it is important to remember that the great strength of democracy as a system of government is not that it transforms people overnight into angels (”If men were angels, no government would be necessary. Federalist #51), but gives all factions a means to fight it out without guns and the risk that a losing fight results in their physical annihilation. Once a large majority is willing to let the losers in the fight live (beacuse it may be them someday), democracy provides a framework for rational, group-based decision making that 1.) learns from it’s mistakes and 2.) acts on this learning with changed behavior. Enlightened self-interest in a framework free of terror and murder all democracy’s genius requires to begin improving the lot of the vast bulk of a society. It is Western cultural strengths that allow us to employ democracy’s tools to a achieve a much greater level of civilizational development, but along a similar path for similar reasons. Once reasonably rooted with provincial elections and then new national elections, Iraq will be solidly on its way barring overt acts of war from Iran that the US allows to occur.
Dec 2, 2008 - 12:06 pm 18. NahnCee:I like the part about having to work hard to be successful in America. I think that’s the image the rest of the world has, is streets paved with gold, bread falling from heaven, and everyone sleeping in and/or playing all day.
If the concept of just getting up in the morning and going to work could percolate around — not least to Iraq — then can you imagine how successful some of these deadbeat countries could become?
Dec 2, 2008 - 5:17 pm 19. feeblemind:I wouldn’t be surprised if Iraq follows the track of Yugoslavia. Works for a few years but then old ethnic hatreds flare up and the country breaks apart.
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