The Terror Wonk knows that a journalist’s first problem in writing about anything that happens involving terror on the Indian subcontinent is to answer the question “whodunnit”? Finding the answer is rarely easy. In the Mumbai attacks “most of the speculation has focused on Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT), although their spokesperson and the spokesperson of their political wing … have both denied their organization’s involvement.” Indeed, the Indians are pointing at LeT also, despite their avowal of innocence. “A top Indian police officer said Sunday he believed the attackers were from Lashkar-e-Taiba, long seen as a creation of the Pakistani intelligence service to help fight India in the disputed Kashmir region.” But Pakistan has denied any connection with LeT and no less than “Pakistan’s president said the terrorists who attacked India’s financial capital had no links to any government and pledged Monday to work for good relations between the two neighbors.”
So who’s lying? The reality, according to an article in India’s Institute for Defence Studies & Analysis journal is that the relationship between terror groups and the Pakistani government is no longer simple. Although the Pakistani government may have initially fostered them, these terror groups, like Frankenstein’s monster, have acquired a life of their own, driven by the crime, unemployment and social conditions of the region.
The supporting structures for the proxy war in J[ammu] & K[ashmir] … have developed their own dynamics… Since the end of the Cold War, these structures have embedded themselves deeply in the political economy of the region. The Pakistani state does not control them but merely exercises influence over them and is able to exploit them to serve its own strategic designs. … Thus, there may be a grain of truth in Gen Musharraf’s statement that the Pakistan Army is unable to stop militants from crossing the LOC. The Pakistani ruling elites are not in complete control of the supporting structures for terrorism … because of the above factors, jehad and terrorism in … are likely to continue even if the Pakistani ruling elites give assurances about the withdrawal of their support.
In other words the terror gangs have become a force unto themselves. With their money and ruthlessness, terror groups are now an established social institution. The Terror Wonk says “the extensive illicit arms trade within Pakistan which ensures that there is an endless supply of weapons, the uncontrollable sources of funding – particularly narcotics trafficking and donations both from within Pakistan and from around the world, and the tens of thousands of radical madrassas that indoctrinate Pakistani youth into radical Islam from Pakistan’s bottomless well of unemployed” have made groups like LeT much more permanent than a mere government in Islamabad. The terror groups are now as much able to manipulate the Pakistani military as vice versa. They have become so intertwined that determining where one begins and ends can be difficult.
Bill Roggio notes that both the Pakistani armed forces and a gigantic criminal/jihadi gang have been implicated in the latest attack on India. The sole surviving gunman in the Mumbai attack, Ajmal Amir Kasab has fingered the Pakistani Navy and the Dawood Ibrahim criminal network for providing assistance and training for the Mumbai assault team, according to India Today, quoting police sources.
Dawood Ibrahim turns out to be one of those supremely powerful people who very few in the West have heard of. He also typifies the interchangeable nature of crime, government and the Jihad among the Muslim communities of South Asia. According to Wikipedia, Dawood Ibrahim “was No. 4 on the Forbes’ world’s Top 10 most dreaded criminals list of 2008″ and is widely believed to have been the man behind the Mumbai terror bombings of 1993. He is wanted by the United States and the United Nations and reportedly lives, unsurprisingly enough, in Karachi.
To put Ibrahim’s notoriety in perspective, the Forbes Number One criminal is Osama Bin Laden, also believed to be domiciled in those parts. Dawood’s public photographs show a man with Elvis-type lapels and suits to match. And doubtless he’s a man of some style, a kind of Islamic Bugsy Siegel in a manner of speaking. US News and World Report described him in the following way:
He is a calm and quiet man, say those who know him, even when he’s threatening your life. The boss of India’s top syndicate controls a criminal network that reaches into 14 countries, with a small army of contract killers, smugglers, and extortionists at his command. But there is another side to Dawood Ibrahim. The Muslim exile from Bombay has thrown in his lot with al Qaeda and other jihadists, according to the U.S. and Indian governments, and has become one of the world’s most wanted terrorists.
One of eight sons of a struggling policeman, Dawood started off as a petty crook but soon formed his own gang and gradually eliminated his rivals among the city’s traditional crime bosses, say Bombay police. By the 1980s, his gang, D Company, had become Bombay’s most powerful, drawing its strength from the city’s minority Muslims. The syndicate grew rich smuggling black-market gold and consumer goods into India’s closed economy and forced its way into the country’s sizzling Bollywood film industry. …
Dawood’s men ran high-stakes gambling rings, fixed cricket matches, and threw lavish parties where Indian actors and sports stars mixed with Arab emirs. Dawood pushed his syndicate into narcotics and arms trafficking, construction, real estate, and hawala, the underground bankers who move millions of dollars around the world each day with barely a trace. “It’s like a corporation of the underworld,” says Dhananjay Kamalakar, who oversees the Bombay police’s organized-crime unit. “There are monthly salaries for foot soldiers, legal defenses for those arrested, and extra pay for contract killers.
Westerners who are accustomed to neat distinctions between a government and criminal syndicates and between syndicates and religious terror organizations, may find the boundaries blurred inside Pakistan. Bill Roggio notes that the gunmen who terrorized Mumbai may have had confederates in the city. Who better to provide that than Dawood Ibrahim? He also reports that signals intelligence suggests that LeT may be mixed up in the Bombay attack:
Indian intelligence has identified additional links to Pakistan and the Lashkar-e-Taiba. An “intercepted conversation between Muzammil, Muzaffarabad chief of LeT (Lashkar-e-Taiba) operations, and a certain Yahya in Bangladesh,” showed a direct link in the Mumbai attacks, The Times of India reported. “Yahya arranged SIM cards, fake ID-cards primarily from western countries like Mauritius, UK, US, Australia.” Phone numbers on the satellite phone found the hijacked Indian fishing boat show calls were made to Zakir Ur Rehman, a Lashkar-e-Taiba training chief based in Karachi.
But the information is not necessarily contradictory. Perhaps the Mumbai operation is an intersection of several organizations. If so the specific name of the perpetrator may matter less than we think. Terrorism, crime and religious fanaticism have become a way of life in parts of the subcontinent. Maybe the real question is not who, as the Terror Wonk seems to think, but what now?
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57 Comments
1. Peter Boston:When your core belief is that your tribe has rightful dominion over the earth then everything that stands in your way is a legitimate grievance.
The genius of Muhammed is that he found an appealing way to legitimize banditry. Why spend your life working when you can have it all now by swinging your sword at a few merchants? Whatever remorse may have been hidden in the hearts of Muhammed’s early followers was extirpated by the canon that your god, your tribe, had dominion over those people and a natural right to their goods anyway.
Identifying the specific sub-group most responsible for any particular heinous act may be useful for law enforcement but does nothing to address the problem.
Dec 1, 2008 - 6:10 am 2. Lifeofthemind:There are two models on how to respond. One is the military model that relies on intelligence that is considered actionable when it reaches a level approximating the legal level of probable cause but which rarely discloses the evidence behind the action due to concerns over operational security and the protection of sources and methods. The other model is the legal one that demands proof beyond a reasonable doubt with the public disclosure of incriminating evidence. The whole point behind “plausible deniability” is to ensure that operations are not exposed in a manner that would justify a response in accordance with legal standards. President Bush acted under the military model and was successful in preventing attacks and eliminating thousands of terrorists. Obama will revert to the legal standard used by the Clinton administration. The Terrorists will be emboldened and many more innocents will die.
Dec 1, 2008 - 6:30 am 3. Mike Sylwester:Pakistan was ruled by a military dictatorship from October 12, 1999, until August 18, 2008, when Pervez Musharraf resigned. Pakistan now has been ruled by a democratically elected government only for the past three months. During those three months, that democratic government has been waging war effectively and successfully against the country’s radical Moslem groups.
People fighting for democracy are able to fight well and to prevail. People fighting against democracy often switch to the democratic side. Eventually the people fighting for a modern society governed by free discussions and popular elections will prevail over the people fighting for a primitive society governed by superstitious mullahs writing stupid fatwas.
Let’s not blame Pakistan’s democratic government for crimes it did not commit. Let’s grant the Pakistanis time and our patience as it deals with this difficult situation.
In the meantime, instead of threatening Pakistan’s new democratic government, India can focus its own efforts on fighting the Dawood Ibrahim criminal network inside India. India should identify and eradicate the Inidan government officials who take bribes from and collaborate with that criminal network.
Dec 1, 2008 - 6:45 am 4. Gordon:Re the name of the organization that attacked in Mumbai, Ralph Peters points that these groups are often like a military task force: formed and given a name for one task. In other words, concentrating on exactly who they were misses the point of what’s the general authority behind it.
Dec 1, 2008 - 7:01 am 5. Pseudo-Polymath » Blog Archive » Monday Highlights:[...] Terror as institutional momentum. [...]
Dec 1, 2008 - 7:08 am 6. Stones Cry Out - If they keep silent… » Things Heard: e43v1:[...] Terror as institutional momentum. [...]
Dec 1, 2008 - 7:09 am 7. ricpic:What a touching faith Sylwester has in democracy. But what if the demos is feral? Then you get feral democracy. Ergo: Pakistan.
Dec 1, 2008 - 7:22 am 8. Gordon:Yes Mike
Dec 1, 2008 - 7:24 am 9. marymcl:I have some sympathy for Pakistan, its attempts(failed mostly) to maintain a democratic regime and its refusal to sink into totalitairianism like China.
However, it has one fatal flaw which is the existence within its territory of two large regions where its writ does not run.
One of these is inhabited by Pathans, who also dominate neighbouring South Afganistan.
These areas were once famous only for being a smuggler’s paradise and where they would make you a copy of a Lee Enfield rifle from bits of scrap metal within 24 hours. Nowadays they make up a giant safe house for Al Kaida and may well in the near future be able to clone nuclear weapons.
At some time these people will have to be given the choice between lawlessness and existence.
This is just great. All we need now is another Keyser Soze character for the MSM and CIA to obsess about. Is he in Obama’s sights yet?
Mike S - As I recall, Saddam was “democratically elected” too. Wretchard noted a couple of threads back that the Dekkan Mujahadeen or whatever it is was probably a one-trick-pony made just for the occasion. In other words, a task force, as Gordon notes above.
Yes it’s complicated in one sense, but very simple in another. The Thanksgiving massacre was part of the Jihad, and at some point soon that central truth will have to be openly addressed by the leadership of the non-Muslim world or said world will cease to exist.
Dec 1, 2008 - 7:25 am 10. Gordon:Sorry
Dec 1, 2008 - 7:25 am 11. Ruby:Different Gordon!
Peter Boston: The genius of Muhammed is that he found an appealing way to legitimize banditry.
Not appealing, not legitimate, simply the same old tactic of extortion by threat of force. The genius of Bin Laden is that he’s hooked into the Left’s creaky old Cold War machinery of legitimizing evil by discrediting the good. The media does all his work for him; he gets his pass, they get their paycheck and peer accolades and Nobel Peace prizes. Everybody wins, except the truth, and the dead victims.
Dec 1, 2008 - 7:28 am 12. F:The Islamofascists have not only legitimized banditry, they have succeeded at convincing otherwise good and peaceful co-religionists to support them financially. Between the two sources of support, they don’t want for resources.
And add to these the repetitious teaching — in madrassas and mosques — that infidels can be put to the sword, in fact _deserve_ to be put to the sword, and you have a far-reaching and lethal combination. It is very easy to conclude there is no possibility of coexistence with such a belief system. F
Dec 1, 2008 - 7:53 am 13. Brock:Let’s grant the Pakistanis time and our patience as it deals with this difficult situation.
How much time? How many attacks must India suffer while Pakistan gets it’s act together? Do we even have evidence (other than their promises) of them getting their act together?
I wouldn’t blame India for deciding that working with the Pakistani government, however well intentioned and ethical that may be, is a fool’s errand, practically speaking. I haven’t seen any evidence that the Pakistani military has suddenly become capable of engaging LeT merely because there’s a Prime Minister in the former President’s office, or that the gun smuggling and narcotics trade will come under control any time soon. The best case scenario I can see for Pakistan, were it allowed to run its own affairs, is becoming a quasi-state in Islamabad while Wazirastan becomes a de facto State and Karachi is only half under control. That leaves plenty of room for ISI, LeT and whomever else to plan and execute the next attack against India or elsewhere.
Dec 1, 2008 - 7:57 am 14. Mike Sylwester:A couple years ago Sunni fanatics in Iraq committed atrocities frequently. Every time Sunni fanatics would blow up a crowded place, people everywhere would react:
* Our war in Iraq is lost! Our war in Iraq is lost!! Our war in Iraq is lost!!!
* It is impossible to establish a democratic government in a Moslem country!
* Iraq needs a tyrant!
* Religious fanatics in Iraq have been massacring each other for centuries and will continue to massacre each other for many more centuries!
* The advocates of a secular, modern government in Iraq are wimps who are easily intimidated, terrorized and murdered!
Now, however, we all can see that Iraq is steadily becoming a peaceful, democratic country. Now it is the religious fanatics who live in constant fear, who might be stabbed in the back or bombed at any moment in any place, who are fleeing from Iraq because they might be murdered tomorrow if they don’t flee today.
Iraq is not threatening any of its neighbors. The Iraq people are too busy organizing themselves politically, socially and economically in order to continue their progress toward becoming a modern country.
Those of us who stubbornly believed and argued that the good guys eventually would prevail in Iraq should look for the same fundamental factors to work in Pakistan. Yes, the terrorists of both places have massacred crowds of people in hotels, hospitals, schools, mosques, busses, but that doesn’t mean they are winning and we are losing.
Dec 1, 2008 - 7:59 am 15. Killersaurus:Even if the “official” ties between these terror groups and Pakistan’s rulers (both political and military) have been severed how does this change anything? They were homegrown by the ISI and neatly cultivated for their purposes until it was no longer advantageous for them to overtly do so. To now wash their hands of them and effectively say, “that’s not us”, is completely disingenuous. The very fact that these islamofascists think that anyone believes them is a laugh. The LeT, Pakistani military, and ruling elites are one in the same and need to be treated as such. I don’t believe for a second the the left hand doesn’t know what the right is doing.
Dec 1, 2008 - 8:01 am 16. Peter Boston:Toppling Saddam Hussein and killing Al Qaeda in Iraq were (are) essential missions to beat back the jihadi horde but please do not have any illusions about Iraq becoming a beacon of democracy in the Middle East or anywhere else. Sharia is still the foundation of the Iraqi constitution.
If I find the reference I’ll post it. The Iraqi legislator recently voted to revoke legislative immunity and execute a fellow Iraqi legislator who traveled to Israel. That initial vote was apparently reversed but the man’s two sons were extra legally executed for the father’s perfidy.
Half a loaf is better than none and demonstrably better than not having a bakery at all. Keeping Iraq’s resources on the sidelines for the time being is sufficient victory.
Dec 1, 2008 - 8:31 am 17. downtowndubai:hey
fact-in the mid sixties…the world bank list the three next up and coming giants in world…korea, lebanon and Bingo-Pakistan.
as an aid giving chum, uncle sugar has poured billion in Pakiland…i know…was an aid officer for said uncle sugar in the late eighties. that 5 year plan was only 6 billion. but really…who’s counting
Dec 1, 2008 - 8:40 am 18. Lifeofthemind:@Mike Sylwester,
Dec 1, 2008 - 8:43 am 19. Mike Sylwester:For the sake of argument let us grant the reasonableness of your position and assume the respectability of your motives. We did not allow the government in Iraq to dictate the conditions under which it attempts to reform that countries polity nor did we permit it to endanger our forces. For Pakistan to be reformed it would need a controlling presence from outside that could get into the neighborhoods and villages to root out the Jihadis and most important discredit them as losers. That would permit a new civilian political culture to develop. Such a transformation will not happen in weeks or months or even in the 4 plus years that we have been at it in Iraq. It will take decades to accomplish so who do you think will take on the job? The Brits aren’t up for it any more and the Americans just stumbled. Do you think the Indians could do it? If Pakistan can not be reformed then the alternatives are ugly.
At this point in time, India’s choices are:
* to attack the Moslem terrorists inside Pakistan
or
* to let Pakistan’s Government continue to attack the Moslem terrorists inside Pakistan.
The second choice is better, even though it involves much dissatisfaction, suspicion, impatience, controversy and aggravation.
The modernization of Pakistan will require several decades. The suppression of Pakistan’s terrorist groups so that the number of terrorist attacks falls dramatically might take only a year or so. Egypt and Iraq are examples of Moslem countries where such suppressions succeeded so quickly.
Dec 1, 2008 - 9:16 am 20. Eggplant:Lifeofthemind said:
“@Mike Sylwester, For the sake of argument let us grant the reasonableness of your position and assume the respectability of your motives.”
Please correct me if I’m wrong but hasn’t nearly everyone concluded that he’s doing Internet agitprop for the GRU or FSB?
It’s nice having a variety of opinion at Belmont Club. We already have the moonbats well represented along with a neo-fascist. Maybe al Qaeda or LeT should have someone post opinions here as well?
LeT is obviously another one of these Frankensteins that was originally created for a specific task and then took on a life of it’s own. The other obvious example was the metamorphosis of the Afghanistan anti-Soviet Mujahideen into al Qaeda. The world’s governments need to cleanup after themselves when they’re finished with these monsters. –or better yet– Don’t use Islamic groups for military work because they’re too random. Instead use only professional special ops people (less trouble in the long run).
Off-topic: Stockmarket is insane. Is it government manipulation that’s causing the wild swings or have all the small investors left the market?
Dec 1, 2008 - 9:39 am 21. dan:i don’t know, don’t we need Pakistan destroyed? i mean, what is the point of all this f*cking around? clearly pakistan is an incubator or a all-purpose patsy or some such other strategic cancer. does anyone really believe its “democratic government” governs anything?
the thing about criminal syndicates and terror attacks and responsibility - isn’t an attack like this precisely for the purpose of splitting India and Pakistan, possibly for the purpose of driving the countries to war? it isn’t simply to hamper business or a grand version of putting a bloody horse in someone’s bed. this is a *strategic* event. even if it itself would not be sufficient to produce the desired effect, it clearly is a very big event in a string of events meant to accomplish the same thing.
in a situation like this, isn’t the best strategy to call the bluff and go in with so much force the whole equation is upended? because as it stands not only do we get this this steady drip drip of tension and atrocity and recrimination, we also have a Star War’s canteen of strategic “criminality” growing out there in the Muslim hinterlands. Come on this can’t just go on forever.
Dec 1, 2008 - 9:51 am 22. Lifeofthemind:@Eggplant,
Dec 1, 2008 - 9:54 am 23. Eggplant:Do I of all people need a sarc tag? Still I hope that the response does stand on its merits even if you doubt the integrity of the original position.
Off-topic: The usually perceptive Fred Barnes has allowed himself to be sucked-in by Obama and the media, refer to:
http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/015/856nzktr.asp
There’s a slight chance that Obama won’t be an utter catastrophe. If Obama is to be successful as either a President or a tyrant, he needs to first establish his credentials. Right now, Obama is probably having policy dictated by events rather than ideology. We won’t really know what Obama’s genuine intentions are until June 2009. Right not it’s all speculation.
Dec 1, 2008 - 9:56 am 24. Eggplant:Dan said:
“in a situation like this, isn’t the best strategy to call the bluff and go in with so much force the whole equation is upended? because as it stands not only do we get this this steady drip drip of tension and atrocity and recrimination, we also have a Star War’s canteen of strategic “criminality” growing out there in the Muslim hinterlands. Come on this can’t just go on forever.”
The “good news” is that India is currently Islamic fascism’s prime target and not us. India is a formidable military power and has nuclear weapons capability (I don’t think they’re shy about using either). Bush or Obama (if he’s capable) should be quietly signaling to India that it’s okay to clean Pakistan’s clock. Pump up India’s ego and tell them that this will mark their emergence as a world power. Then they can clean up this mess and take the collateral damage.
Dec 1, 2008 - 10:11 am 25. Michael Hoskins:#18-LOM.
A little off topic, but why do we always refer to ourselves as “the” Americans?
Hell, where I live we are more possessive of the Redskins.
Dec 1, 2008 - 10:12 am 26. dan:Eggplant - i agree. war there looks inevitable, and if that’s the case, sooner than later is better. momentum is everything. and if it comes to nuclear exchanges, i notice that Pakistan’s main nuclear weapons facility is some kilometers west of Islamabad in the FATA. that’d provide a nice opportunity to do what needs to be done in the tribal wastes in the most palatable possible way (PRwise). i know people don’t want to hear that kind of talk but i think those people are, unfortunately, wrong. (a la “worse than a crime - a mistake”)
anyway, i hope we have some capable strategists working behind the scenes on all this.
Dec 1, 2008 - 10:28 am 27. Eggplant:Michael Hoskins asked:
“A little off topic, but why do we always refer to ourselves as “the” Americans?”
It’s an interesting cultural thing about using “the” with nations. For example, we Americans refer to “Turkey” (the nation, not the bird) as simply “Turkey”. However the Germans always call Turkey “Der Türkei” (masculine form of “the”). “Sudan” is another example. We American can’t make up our minds, i.e. we call it either “Sudan” or “the Sudan”. However in Arabic it is always ” السودان al-Sūdān” or “the Sudan”. The tribal names of many American indians translates to “human beings”. Also the ancient Egyptians refered to themselves as the “human beings”. It’s a bit like China calling itself the “Central Kingdom”. It’s my understanding that the Chinese call us (America) “the beautiful land”. That’s quite nice of the Chinese to say that! (I agree with them)
Dec 1, 2008 - 10:31 am 28. bob:I’ve read many of the Native Americans referred to themselves as ‘the real people’ or ‘the real human beings’, in distinction to the tribe across the mountain range, who weren’t in the same category of ‘real’.
Dec 1, 2008 - 10:49 am 29. Mongoose:Eggplant: The NBER came out with some terrible number today.
The runup last week or so did not appear all that rational, at least to me. The tinhat crowd says it was people try to cover for the post election dip, but that would take a lot of money.
Bet it settles down in the high end of the 8k range.
Dec 1, 2008 - 10:51 am 30. David M:The Thunder Run has linked to this post in the - Web Reconnaissance for 12/01/2008 A short recon of what’s out there that might draw your attention, updated throughout the day…so check back often.
Dec 1, 2008 - 10:53 am 31. Mike Sylwester:A big country near Russia used to be called The Ukraine but now it is called only Ukraine. The word means basically the place on the edge of Russia.
Slavic languages do not have a word that corresponds to our word the.
After Ukraine became independent, Ukrainians living in Engligh-speaking countries proposed that the country’s name in English be changed from The Ukraine to Ukraine, and so it was done.
Dec 1, 2008 - 10:55 am 32. Michael Hoskins:I understand the linquistics…
Dec 1, 2008 - 11:31 am 33. Eggplant:My observation began with CNN…in their attempt to be unbiased (LOL).
I do not think it is a language thing. I think it is the beginning of one of Geo. Orwells new speak efforts.
Mongoose said:
“Bet it settles down in the high end of the 8k range.”
My bet is it will rattle down to 7500 and buzz around there for a couple months. I’m ready to dive back in but first I need to figure out what a real bottom looks like. The DJI charts for the Great Depression are frightening. The initial sell off in 29 October 1929 was comparable to what we’ve just gone through. They had a “sucker’s rally” just like we did. The market then settle for a while and did a “dead cat’s bounce”. The real market catastrophe happened ***after*** the dead cat’s bounce when by July 1932 the market bottomed to 89% of its original value.
So the $64,000 question: “Is this just another recession or is this Great Depression-II?” If this is Great Depression-II then anyone who invests in the next two months will be cleaned out in about two years. However if this is just another recession then anyone who invests in the next two months will make a bundle in about 2-3 years.
The investment advice out there seems to come mainly from criminals, liars and idiots. It’s very difficult to gauge the truth because the signal-to-noise ratio is so terrible. Maybe I should hide my money under the mattress and forget about it.
Dec 1, 2008 - 12:17 pm 34. Bob W.:The seeming reluctance of armed police, first on the scene, to respond effectively to the terror attack is interesting, and something that we should think about as we analyze our own readiness for a similar type of attack in the U.S.
I argue here that at other times in history we were fairly prepared for unpleasant surprises like what occurred in Mumbai, using the historical example of the James-Younger raid on Northfield Minnesota. Cheers.
Dec 1, 2008 - 12:36 pm 35. Ruby:Eggplant, 89% of its original value would have been tolerable, that would be a loss of only 11%. Today’s market is already around 40% of the peak value. You probably mean the 1930s market had 89% of its original value shaved off.
Dec 1, 2008 - 12:45 pm 36. fred:wretchard,
The questions remain: How does one pry out the guilty from the innocent, when in the Islamic culture this is complicated by the fact that many moderates secretly approve of the jihad and they fund it through the zakat given to their mosques? This is further complicated by the fact that jihad itself expresses the moment and the ideology that formed in Muhammad’s mind in Yathrib. Islam grew from it. Fundamentally, Islam is not and never has been a spiritual quest akin to what you find in the major world religions. It is, at its very roots, an expression of banditry and power lust. Of misogyny and perversion. Intolerance and anti-intellectual.
If Muslims themselves cannot police this and completely change their religion, then at some decisive moment in the future they themselves - their very existence - become intolerable to the rest of us, if they are not already. We’ve seen fourteen centuries of mayhem, murder, rapine, and spoliation all done in the name of Muhammad’s sock puppet. How many more human beings have to die or their lives ruined just so that we can avail to Islam a chance to change? How about asking the victims that question? Because right now we give the benefit of the doubt to THEIR INNOCENT rather than to our innocent people. We cannot abide this stasis for much longer.
Dec 1, 2008 - 12:56 pm 37. Lifeofthemind:The chess game continues. Pakistan threatens to withdraw troops from the tribal areas to face the threat from India.
Dec 1, 2008 - 1:00 pm 38. Staring In Disbelief:http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/US_India_face_Pak_blackmail_on_terror/articleshow/3777307.cms
I think we have to accept that fact that we need to be in the Nation Building Business unless we are willing to accept a certain level of senseless criminal bloodshed. A Great Power (like the US) cannot tolerate wanton attacks on our interests. That’s why the Taliban & Saddam were taken down after 9/11. Conversely, not every murder or theft in the world is a big enough problem for us to address (e.g. Somali pirates that leave US ships alone). If up and coming countries want to be considered a truly Great Power, they have to stand up for their interests (like India). These attacks are sickening and make for lurid press attention, but they are more a test for India than the US. As far as Pakistan is concerned, admitting you have a problem is a good first step to solving it, and their newly “elected” government is making some moves in the right direction. Time will tell - and so will pressure from the Great Powers - the US as it concerns the Waziri tribal areas destabilizing Afghanistan and India concerning the nutjobs that can’t get over the Kashmir thing. Pressure and time - that’s how seismic changes happen. And they must happen, because the proliferation of WMD technology and increasing globalization means what happens in Waziristan matters to Peoria more and more.
The story about the Iraqi legislators one of the commenter mentions is only one of thousands of depressing anecdotes from that country in the last few years - but is it the widespread future trend or only a tragic near term fringe event? The overall trajectory is often quite different from the anecdotal evidence selectively chosen from literally tens of millions of potential stories. See our own media’s presentation of our country vs what many of us here at the BC know to be true. You don’t have to look very far to see a story that means “We’re All Doomed.” if it in fact represents the larger societal trend. The question is, does it?
A final word on our new Dear Leader. I told my in-laws this last weekend that I always thought he was either a fool or a liar. He either really believed all that socialist radical bulls**t (”a fool”) or he didn’t, but thought saying it would get him elected (”a liar”). Well, he got elected, so now it seems to me that he may very well be intellectually where Bill Clinton was in 1995 - more interested in his own personal success as President (i.e. Re-Elected) than in being Jimmy Carter’s second term. His first 100 days of exec orders & LEGISLATION will tell us much. Before then, a lot of really cheap talk.
Dec 1, 2008 - 1:06 pm 39. fred:And one of the major reasons why we cannot abide the stasis of giving Islam the benefit of the doubt and priority to their innocents is the fact of WMD proliferation. We can thank the Soviets/Russians for that, but in the hands of dar al Islam there is less restraint. The Russians were not suicidal. They have no cult of martyrdom and no promises of a hereafter.
Reports are that Iran will have 3 atomic bombs by the end of 2009. The tipping point is fast approaching, and Pakistan already has nuclear devises. But soon the Ummah will be more robustly armed and the Mullahs will have medium range missiles as delivery devices.
Dec 1, 2008 - 1:09 pm 40. Peter Boston:fred
I like the way you put that.
Whose innocents do we protect? Ours or the perpetrators?
Dec 1, 2008 - 1:13 pm 41. dan:possible scenario:
jihad intensifies in pakistan (vs. Mush, vs. Bhutto, via Taliban),
the jihad intensifies in india preparatory to a strike on the US,
russia preparations in crimea, ukraine
russia revamping relations with Venezuela, Cuba
russo-chinese “shanghai cooperation”
russia near the peak of its ability to energy-extort Europe
all preparatory to
jihadi takeover of pakistan, afghanistan, (iraq?), hezbollah in lebanon
and russia retaking ukraine/crimea
when the nuke goes off in the USA,
presuming the attackers can ensure deniability and thus avert catastrophic reprisal (and presumably obama would be the best possible pres to have in the White House).
you’ll note that the absence of US pressure would result in any case in Islamist victory in the countries cited, while Russia requires actual US crippling to achieve its goals…
or maybe not. who knows.
Dec 1, 2008 - 1:40 pm 42. Shivermetimbers:Unfortunately, it wont be too long before Russia is a muslim country. Already a huge portion of their armed forces are made up of muslims who have high fertility rates, while the rest of Russia does not.
What happens when they have control over Russia’s nukes?
Dec 1, 2008 - 2:08 pm 43. fred:#42 Hopefully most of the Russian nukes will be ineffective due to lax maintenance. Hopefully a miracle will happen and we won’t scrap the ballistic missile defense program and at some point we will have an anti-ballistic missile shield in space that is laser technology that can fry MIRV’s.
Dec 1, 2008 - 2:15 pm 44. Eggplant:Ruby said:
“Eggplant, 89% of its original value would have been tolerable, that would be a loss of only 11%. … You probably mean the 1930s market had 89% of its original value shaved off.”
I stand corrected. I should have said 89% of its original value lost.
Dec 1, 2008 - 2:21 pm 45. twobyfour:@ 42. Shivermetimbers
I presume in that time (about 25+ yrs), it would be just degraded dirty bombs. Still a nuissance, but no big bada boom. Also is probable that if the trend is apparent, the Russian leadership may get’em shredded lest they fall into islamic hands. Don’t assume there would be a transition a la West (like gradual takeover of UK). They may have suicidal birth rates, but that does not translate into insane multicult policies. Rather the opposite, insane on the other side of the spectrum–racism and suprematism (Nashi) in Russia is increasing almost in a geometric progression.
Though, I think Russians will use them (or at least part of their arsenal) before too long. Candidates: ME, China, US.
Dec 1, 2008 - 2:30 pm 46. twobyfour:Oh yea, Russians wanna Alaska back. Or, certain segments are hallucinating about it. The problem is that as things are progressing, before too long, they may not be that close, as Chinese would simply get Siberia by default through immigration, illegal or otherwise.
Dec 1, 2008 - 2:37 pm 47. Mongoose:Eggplant: Actually, I think your range is better, and I agree with everything else you said.
Will we get a Great Depression or is a Great Recession or a Great Stagflation more likely? Do not know, myself. This is not 1930, with the expectations that people have today, well there will be a lot of political turmoil.
It is pretty scary. Really, a lot depends on what Obama does (not all of it depends on him though).
There two questions here:
1) Is he smart enough to know that FDR actually prolonged the Depression. Have the dems learned anything from Reagan et al.?
2) Do the Democrats want a depression in order to implement their socialist agenda (or even just a prolonged recession).
I think for #1 the answer is yes; for #2 I am not so sure.
I think a couple of o other things:
1) The current problems were willfully provoked by the Democrats (or some of Obama’s backers), but it got out of hand and took on a life of its own. This is not to say that there were not plainly structural issues there anyway. I really think that Soros pushed Lehman and AIG over the edge with naked shorts aimed at the CRA based derivatives, insurance, etc.
I do not know if Paulson acted in good faith or was manipulated, but I do not think that matters. I am a more than a little miffed at Bush about this (I am not one of those that is always so down on GWB, BTW).
2) Government needs to stay out of it. I do not agree at all with the Paulson bailout. They are just kicking the can down the road. That money was just tossed down the toilet. (watch the Dems piss away another trillion next year). Noe of thi will stop anything. It just sucks more trust out of the market.
And I quite agree with the “criminals, liars and idiots” comment.
What galls me is that these so called “Masters of the Universe” have not had to take any lumps, and are still running things, both on Wall St. and on the Hill.
It is extremely scandalous, and the media should be ashamed of it.
We will know soon enough what Obama is up to after he is sworn in.
If the electorate is stupid enough to let him further ruin the economy, then I really do not know what to say.
Dec 1, 2008 - 2:38 pm 48. Eggplant:fred said:
“Hopefully a miracle will happen and we won’t scrap the ballistic missile defense program and at some point we will have an anti-ballistic missile shield in space that is laser technology that can fry MIRV’s.”
I have to be pedantic here. A laser in not going to fry a MIRV (Multiple Independent Reentry Vehicle) because a Reentry Vehicle (RV) has a heatshield around it that can survive atmospheric reentry. A laser defense is useful only during the boost phase of an ICBM. The sides of an ICBM are not heat shielded and therefore susceptible to a laser defense system. The only defense against an RV that has separated from the upper stage bus is either a kinetic kill interceptor or high neutron nuclear explosion such as used by the abandoned Sprint and Spartan (Safeguard) ABM system. Truth to tell, the only ABM system that I think was really practical was the old Safeguard ABM system. However we can not use that approach now because the Electro-Magnetic Pulse (EMP) would knock our economy back to the 1950s (cure is almost as bad as the disease).
Dec 1, 2008 - 2:50 pm 49. twobyfour:Does anyone know actual papers with tested data of EMP on modern electronics?
Dec 1, 2008 - 3:08 pm 50. Eggplant:twobyfour asked:
“Does anyone know actual papers with tested data of EMP on modern electronics?”
Here’s the Wikipedia article. You can track down the actual publications from that:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starfish_Prime
Dec 1, 2008 - 4:18 pm 51. Eggplant:Here’s another one:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Argus
The people behind those tests were criminally irresponsible. They were deliberately popping off nukes just above the atmosphere simply to see what would happen (How did they know it wouldn’t blow away our atmosphere’s protection from solar radiation ?!). Check out the references at the tail end of the Wikipedia articles.
Dec 1, 2008 - 4:31 pm 52. David Boggs:twobyfour (#49)
see
published April 2008
Dec 1, 2008 - 6:17 pm 53. David Boggs:that’s http://www.empcommission.org
Dec 1, 2008 - 6:19 pm 54. Kirk Parker:Some filter deleted it when enclosed in pointy brackets.
David Boggs,
You have to write actual html for the links:
<a href=”url goes here”>text goes here</a>
Dec 1, 2008 - 6:56 pm 55. Eggplant:Mongoose asked:
“Will we get a Great Depression or is a Great Recession or a Great Stagflation more likely?”
My worthless and uninformed opinion is that it could be a Great Stagflation, i.e. hit bottom and stay there for a few decades (most of my remaining lifespan). This could be worse than the Great Depression (at least it recovered with WW-II).
Mongoose asked the following rhetorical questions:
“1) Is he [Obama] smart enough to know that FDR actually prolonged the Depression. Have the dems learned anything from Reagan et al.?”
I suspect that most of the Democratic elite think FDR’s socialist programs ended the Great Depression (WW-II actually ended it) and that Keynesian economics actually works.
“2) Do the Democrats want a depression in order to implement their socialist agenda (or even just a prolonged recession).”
The ethical Democrats (vast majority) don’t want a Depression (this is obvious). The crypto-Marxist elite within the Democrat Party are probably debating amongst themselves about the merits of using a depression to rid the world of capitalism. I’m assuming that Obama is part of the crypto-Marxist elite but he might(?) have a puppet master who is part of that elite and calling the shots.
Mongoose said:
“1) The current problems were willfully provoked by the Democrats (or some of Obama’s backers), but it got out of hand and took on a life of its own. This is not to say that there were not plainly structural issues there anyway. I really think that Soros pushed Lehman and AIG over the edge with naked shorts aimed at the CRA based derivatives, insurance, etc.”
The current recession/depression was caused by general economic misconduct, e.g. too many people living beyond their means, misuse of credit, subprime mortgages. etc. IMHO, the current recession should have started in mid-2006. However for national security reasons, the government of G.W. Bush tried to keep the economic House of Cards standing until after the end of the 2008 election. There might have been puppet masters behind Obama, who perceived this political attempt to manipulate the economy and scuttled it at a time to inflict maximum political damage (timing and the MSM’s behavior are suspect). The original economic misconduct and subsequent politics have made this recession far worse than it should have been.
The wizards have summoned a demon without knowing the spell of dismissal.
Mongoose said:
“I do not know if Paulson acted in good faith or was manipulated, but I do not think that matters. I am a more than a little miffed at Bush about this (I am not one of those that is always so down on GWB, BTW).”
I suspect Greenspan, Paulson and Soros thought they were acting for the “higher good”.
Mongoose then said:
“What galls me is that these so called “Masters of the Universe” have not had to take any lumps, and are still running things, both on Wall St. and on the Hill.”
Where is it written that “life is fair”?
Mongoose said:
“It is extremely scandalous, and the media should be ashamed of it.”
The MSM is part of the problem.
Mongoose said:
“If the electorate is stupid enough to let him [Obama] further ruin the economy, then I really do not know what to say.”
The electorate was stupid enough to vote Obama into office.
I think we’re reamed. The only real questions is if it’s a 1/2 inch diameter ream with helical flutes or 2 inch diameter ream with straight flutes. Either way, it’s going to hurt.
Dec 1, 2008 - 7:59 pm 56. MarkL:I can only express professional admiration for the SOB’s who planned the Mumbai attack. From the Islamist perspective, how can they lose?
If Congress does nothing, the BJP creams them at the next election and persecution of muslims in India goes up while India confronts PK. Islamist gain
If IN and PK go to war over this, PK will lose, creating chaos inside PK. Islamists gain.
If the US and IN pressure PK into hitting the islamists inside PK, the popular backlash will be enormous and the PK state may collapse. Islamists gain (and they gain if Afstan as well, as the 100,000 PK troops on that border drain away).
The only way I can see them losing is if the Army stages a coup and conducts bloody purges of the ISI and islamists.
I think war is close to inevitable, now. The fragility of the PK government, lack of ability for Washington to repeat the brilliant performance of 2002, and drivers behind the Congress party’s decisions leave desperately little room to manoeuvre for anyone.
There may be a faint shred of hope: if IN sticks to just destroying the PK Navy as punishment. Perhaps it can be confined to the sea - but I am not hopeful.
MarkL
Dec 2, 2008 - 12:38 am 57. whiskey:Canberra
There is always the last option PK.
India will, sooner or later, simply kill about half of Pakistan. They may yet come to war, and get drawn into a larger, nuclear conflict. India is far larger and has a lot more people. They have more nukes and a better military.
If the Indians killed about half of Pakistan, believe me the fighting would stop. They might even kill a lot more. You never know.
Let’s be clear — there is a very dangerous game Jihadis play. It works only so long as the enemy does not follow the dictates of drain the sea. Kill as many Muslims as you can, as Hulagu Khan did, and you get no more attacks. That man had no trouble at all from the Assassins.
India or China may yet make a Mongol Peace. The likelihood of this is if India sells out the Dalai Lama. Then we will know (arrangements with China have been made). China of course has it’s own issues with Muslims. In the economy that is melting down, they would make a very convenient enemy. One, moreover with much oil and natural gas, which would be worth something later. I do not think the men in Beijing would trouble too much if they had to kill half of Central Asia to make it a Chinese dominated area. They might well come to a meeting of minds with India.
It’s not particularly smart to poke sticks at a large and dangerous neighbor. No matter how divided he might seem to be.
Dec 2, 2008 - 1:59 amSorry, comments for this entry are closed at this time.