33 Comments

1. dan:

Russia vs. Crimea/Ukraine, because of the anti-missile defense provocation? Kabul blitz? Berlin U-bahn?

Dec 3, 2008 - 9:20 pm 2. Dave:

Once more for those who did not catch it earlier:

Check out COL Austin Bay at townhall.com.

Purpose of Mumbai operation seems to have been to incite Indian retaliation thereby
forcing Paki re-deployments.

Pakis have been doing quite a bit better in their anti-terrorist ops. In turn, this has enhanced US/Allied ops in Afghanistan and across borders.

Mumbai is effort to reverse all that.

Dec 3, 2008 - 9:25 pm 3. wretchard:

If he gets any 3 am in the morning call his first problem will be to decide whether that crisis, and what follows from it, can be dealt with primarily by diplomacy. One of the underlying premises of the Obama candidacy is that he would “restore America’s prestige in the world”, stop everyone from hating it and bring people together. A really bad call at 3 am would mean that premise is no longer operative.

Is he going to dust off the Bush approach? Will he persist with his idea of multilateral engagement? It will all depend on the specific nature of the call.

My real worry is the possibility of a cascade. What will Obama do if the phone starts ringing off the hook? Can he firewall a galloping crisis. If something really serious happens, all Obama’s political opponents will have a problem of their own: will they back his play, even if they believe it’s wrong? I think many will, up to a point. But at any rate, that’s all speculative. Maybe there won’t be a call.

Dec 3, 2008 - 9:31 pm 4. Utopia Parkway:

There will be a 3 am call, Biden said so. This article in today’s jpost suggests how Obama’s team will deal with these kinds of issues.

Think-tank comments on Iran worry Israel The point isn’t really Israel’s perspective but rather what Indyk and the rest will do. Diplomacy, Diplomacy, Diplomacy.

Good luck with that.

Dec 3, 2008 - 9:39 pm 5. exhelodrvr:

I suspect that there were carrots dangled in front of Indian noses to induce a very limited response. And not-so-veiled threats to the Pakistani government. This actually makes both nations look better internationally.

A fair amount of progress had been made in the past few years on the Kashmir issue; it will be interesting to see what happens on that front now.

This could turn out to the benefit of all concerned, other than the terrorists.

Dec 3, 2008 - 9:54 pm 6. exhelodrvr:

W,
“Will he persist with his idea of multilateral engagement?”

I think the real question is, will the rest of the world now be more willing to cooperate, as promised during the campaign?

Dec 3, 2008 - 9:56 pm 7. NahnCee:

IF – and it’s a big “if” whether he’ll even answer his red phone — but *if* B. Hussein bothers to answer the phone, I’m positively certain he will do nothing. He will backpedal, he will tread water, he will vote “present”, and he’ll confer with his advisers. At most he will appoint committees to “study the situation”. And send Hillary off on a jet airplane to meet with whatever head of state is screaming the loudest, just like Bush has been doing with his own useless female Secretary of State.

While Obama is conferring and studying the situation, Iran will nuke Israel, Israel will nuke Iran, India and Pakistan will trade bombs, and Iraq will invade both Kuwait and Saudi Arabia in another oil grab. Russia will annex Georgia, China will land in Taiwan, Yugoslavia will pillage Kosovo some more, and North Korea will lob a few bombs south to wake up the South Koreans and demand that they start sending food north.

Obama will *not* hold any press conferences or risk taking any questions, although he might issue some press releases sounding concerned, grave, and Presidential. I also see him making regular treks to address the United Nations, perhaps bringing along Rodney King to repeat, “Can’t we all just get along.”

For America, his behavior will be what they asked for when they voted for “hopeandchange”. And therefore what 52% of Americans deserve. For the rest of the world, they’ve been bitching about American hegemony for decades so if they want to kill each other off in childish tantrums, that sounds fine to me.

Dec 3, 2008 - 10:47 pm 8. fred:

Not sure if a lot of the Oobonga voters under the age of 30 understand what a crisis is, let alone how to deal with it. They just don’t want to go to war; want plenty of freebies while they are still in college and afterwards while they are still living with Mom and Dad; the girls still want to have free abortions just in case the boys who knock them up don’t want to do the right thing; they want someone who is “cool” like them.

The adults are no longer in charge, folks.

Dec 3, 2008 - 10:57 pm 9. fred:

If I seem flip, cynical, and angry in my last post, it is because I am precisely those things. When I look at the world as it is this moment, I see it all going to hell in a handbasket and the people in charge are liars, criminals, and ideologues.

Dec 3, 2008 - 10:59 pm 10. Dave:

Fred: We’ll make it by the skin of our teeth, just like we always do.

Human beings always seek comfort over discomfort. When comfort becomes available, they lose sight of what brought it about.
Then comes reality. Societies fall when there are not enough souls who remained ready for reality.

That, my friend is NOT us. We have our quota of tough hombres. Our quota and some other folks quota as well.

Dec 3, 2008 - 11:15 pm 11. wildernesscalling:

“0″ will answer the phone, he will not authorize any military action! In other wards he will vote “present” not saying he won’t move the troops around and hope for a “Tonkin”
Incident to pop and force the generals to respond so he can plausibly denied it if it goes bad or take credit if it is popular and goes well, What will be interesting will be to see how the Intel Community will draft reports and leak info that seamlessly complements “0” political position to a “t”, a night and day difference from how it flowed for “W” the first one or two incidents and how “0” handles them will tell us how big the hills are and how quick the drops are on the four year roller coaster ride we will be on.

Dec 4, 2008 - 1:44 am 12. Herb:

W said “If something really serious happens, all Obama’s political opponents will have a problem of their own: will they back his play, even if they believe it’s wrong?”

I recall Slo Joe asking their supporters about the same thing during the campaign. Words to the effect that the One would do something that would not seem like the right thing and insisting that, since he is the One, they (we) should support him anyway because …. . well, because.

Dec 4, 2008 - 7:18 am 13. wildernesscalling:

New question? Will Israel strike while “W” is still there to protect them or wait for “0″ and force his hand by striking Iran and becoming the first 3AM call? http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1227702421218&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull
I think if the US does not give the codes and coordinate the event with Israel then it would be smarter for Israel to just nuke the Iranian reactor and centrifuges saving their human and material resources for the possible retaliations by Iran’s cohorts and opportunistic friends.

Dec 4, 2008 - 7:23 am 14. dan:

i hope we do back obama; some idiot on CNN last night remarked that obama’s honeymoon likely will be longer than the usual, just because of the number and severity of the crises he faces. i think and hope that’s correct. even though i think he’s a leninist dupe, i know i could be and hope i’m wrong. from an internationial pr standpoint, having obama in the white house during the genuine crisis that i believe is approaching could be beneficial in that his popularity would provide a firewall to the kind of enervating domestic and international active measures that are, at bottom, mostly responsible for the “mistakes” of the various bush foreign policy enterprises.

and by the way – can someone remind me why moqtada al-sadr still breathes oxygen?

Dec 4, 2008 - 7:30 am 15. steveaz:

Scenario: a pirated oil-tanker flying a Liberian flag is piloted onto Santa Monica’s beach right along the pier, and the “pirates” threaten to blow up the ship and spill millions of barrels of crude oil on California’s favorite beach.

Then the “red-phone” rings at 3AM. And Obama picks it up…

The terrorists know that California’s liberal establishment has talked itself into believing that oil-covered birds and tar balls on Cal’s beaches represent ecological “armageddon,” so the terrorists (or pirates) recognize that their threat cuts right to the liberal establishment’s bone.

Question: What does Obama do? Does he declare a new “War on Piracy,” or WOP, from the safety of the oval office? Does he tap his Environmental Czar to take charge, so as to stay aloof from the outcome? Does he send a task force to the UN to seek international support for fighting international piracy?

Or, does he pressure MSNBC to broadcast a “special feature” on how quickly the crude from the Exxon Valdez dissipated due to microbial digestion and wave-action (less than ten years after the “disaster,” there was no sign that the Valdez had ever spilled its cargo), downplay Environmentalists’ fears, and storm the vessel?

I think he’ll get bogged down in the minutiae of the first half-hearted measures. The last option, taking bold action that may refute one the Progressive movement’s essential piers, the Environmental Fringe, just doesn’t seem likely.

Which means the pirates have Obama over a barrel. Don’t think they don’t know that either.

Dec 4, 2008 - 8:11 am 16. marymcl:

Fred – your post on the Obama supporters and their blind faith in the impossible reminded me of something I read recently -

“In our wildest madness, we dream of an equilibrium we have lost, and which in our simplicity we think we shall discover once again when our errors cease – an infantile presumption, which justifies the fact that childish peoples, inheriting our madness, are managing our history today.”
– Albert Camus (’Helen’s Exile’ in Literal and Critical Essays)

Later in the same piece he writes “But this is our time and we cannot live hating ourselves.”

Take heart. Mankind has seen worse before. The good fight is still before us.

Dec 4, 2008 - 8:17 am 17. marymcl:

@14 “and by the way – can someone remind me why moqtada al-sadr still breathes oxygen?”

Amazing isn’t it? I honestly thought his own people would off him years ago, and I’ll never, ever understand why we let him become an international celebrity. His “martyrdom” would’ve feen forgotten in no time. Now we’re stuck with him – he’s the new and improved Yasser Arafat.

Dec 4, 2008 - 8:43 am 18. What will the 3AM call be?:

[...] bookies are taking bets on what the first Obama Presidency crisis will be.  I predict… China and [...]

Dec 4, 2008 - 10:07 am 19. MarkJ:

My fearless prediction:

By January 2010, Obama will be whining to his angry wife, “Damn, baby, this job is HARD.”

Dec 4, 2008 - 10:14 am 20. NahnCee:

Am I not remembering that Sistani is protecting Mookie? And we don’t want to annoy Sistani without a VERY good reason.

Dec 4, 2008 - 10:29 am 21. Dave:

Should not want to annoy Sistani. He is on our side.

Dec 4, 2008 - 10:37 am 22. Charles:

imho the first 3 am call will be to tell Obama that SCOTUS wants him to produce his birth certificate.

This scenario just moved up a probability notch.

While its being reported thinly that Judge Thomas has brought the case for review on Friday. (With the great likelihood that the judges will vote to not review the case further.)What I have seen in only one place is that SCOTUS has already distributed the application to all members for Friday consideration.

“She confirmed that Mr. Donofrio’s application was first referred to conference by Thomas on the 19th, but after that referral, the full Court distributed the application for Conference on December 5, 2008. Unusual. The docket was not clear to these facts. ……..”

Dec 4, 2008 - 12:34 pm 23. Charles:

that said, the chances of Obama getting the call remain remote.

The only thing that keeps this case above freezing is the fact that Judge Thomas is pushing the case. He is honor bound to push this case. Honor bound in very serious way.

The other justices will have to trample him to death to stop him.

I’m not sure they are up to it.

But they could be. The likelihood is that this case is going nowhere. There will be no 3 am call.

But you never know. Certainly it would be good for the USA if he did. It would for tell a more orderly transition into the 21st century.

Dec 4, 2008 - 12:55 pm 24. Agoraphobic Plumber:

“That, my friend is NOT us. We have our quota of tough hombres. Our quota and some other folks quota as well.”

I hope so. But maybe the real trick isn’t so much to have tough hombres as it is to have enough folks who are willing to TRY to be tough enough.

I don’t know if I’m a “tough hombre”, but I’m really ready to try like hell, if that counts.

Dec 4, 2008 - 1:54 pm 25. dan:

Sistani – yes. I believe I read that Moqtada is the last living descendant of the al-Sadr clan, apparently a very famous, very ancient clerical family in Iraq. Perhaps Sistani himself cannot outlaw him. You’d think we could engineer his assassination somehow, maybe by one of those nice Sunni sheik’s sons – but I suppose it’s to our credit, morally, that we are so bad at disinformation and assassinations generally. Probably everyone would know immediately that it’s us anyway. Ah well.

Dec 4, 2008 - 2:54 pm 26. NahnCee:

Be lovely when the first moonbat claims that Justice Thomas is being a racist in pursuing Obama’s birth certificate. Since Obama’s base is probably as informed about the make-up of the Supreme Court as they are about everything else governmental.

Dec 4, 2008 - 3:24 pm 27. programmer:

Dave and Agoraphoric Plumber:

Would you guys knock it off? When you get that “thousand yard” stare, I keep hearing trumpets in the far distance and horses stomping in their stalls. It’s been a long time since I even thought tough thoughts, but you kind of remind me of this clip:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3-cHVI_UBMs

Great movie, by the way.

Dec 4, 2008 - 4:01 pm 28. Robohobo:

3am call-

Nuclear rose blooms over tel Aviv. Tehran and other Arab capitals disappear in the same soon after.

Probably no later than March.

Dec 4, 2008 - 7:01 pm 29. Jim in Virginia:

One more terror attack in India and Karachi gets nuked.
How well has the ISI penetrated the Indian government and Indian (and Brit and Israeli) intelligence penetrated the ISI?
What if the Pakistani reaction to another terror attack in Mumbai is to attempt a pre emptive strike on Indian nuke sites?
Once things start to unravel, Wretchard’s fear of a cascade is likely. The Israelis will hit the Iran nuke sites. Korea goes up, the Russians go into Ukraine, Turkey decides to clean out Kurdistan or the Kurds start a terror campign in Istanbul, Chavez invades Columbia. In chaos, everyone sees their chance and takes it.
A joke fromthe 90’s comes to mind: a Russian optimist is teaching his kids Englsh. A Russian pessimist is teaching them Chinese. A Russian realist is teaching them to use a Kalyshnikov.
The only question is whether the next 3 am call occurs before or after January 20.

Dec 4, 2008 - 8:19 pm 30. Mark Razak:

What will Obama do when the phone rings at 3am? I agree with NahnCee but for different reasons. In response to the call of course he’s going to counsel with his advisors. In Obama’s leftist world most, if not all, of the conflict in the world is a direct result of America’s economic avarice and her incurable imperialism. Obama most likely views Iran’s nuclear program as primarily defensive. This is the standard leftist line outside the MSM. Didn’t old Noam state that “Iran would be crazy NOT to develop nuclear weapons”? Iran obtaining the bomb is as certain as gravity. But I do not believe that Iran will use it against Israel directly. I believe that Iran’s policy would be to use its nuclear weapons as a Sword of Damocles over Israel. Iran’s goal will be to completely demoralize young Israelis. After Iran “gets” the bomb we will witness a surge of low level terrorism against Israeli society that will be relentless in its pace. Over time young Israelis will grow demoralized and tired of living in a garrison state and will begin to emigrate. When enough young Israelis have left and the Israelis state is severely weaken, Israel will be finished off conventionally with the remaining Israelis slaughtered en masse. But by that time the world couldn’t careless and will look the other way. The Left will provide ample justifications (“pick one, any one”) to ignore the genocide.
One other point I wish to make. Obama not just a leftist, he’s an intelligent leftist. It will be mistake of the epic proportions to believe that Obama is “an empty suit”. He is the real deal. We need to know our “enemy” and not underestimate his capabilities. Do not take solace in his initial cabinet. He is simply using the tried and true leftist method of “Popular front” type alliances. Obama realizes that his FIRST and MOST IMPORTANT goal is to consolidate his regime. Forging temporary alliances with rivals and foes simply defuses opposition to the regime while it is being born. Once he feels that his regime is firmly in control, he will replace those Department Secretaries with ones more ideologically compatible.

Dec 4, 2008 - 8:44 pm 31. Fletcher Christian:

It’s not entirely unlikely that Mr. Obama will go to bed one night in the White House and “wake up” next morning (?) with a harp in his hands – or a pitchfork – along with a million or more other Americans. And what happens then? Maybe it will take something that drastic to cause the West, and specifically the USA, to do what has to be done, and give the million each a lordly honour guard.

Jim #29; it wil definitely be after January 20th. The enemy isn’t stupid.

Dec 5, 2008 - 3:07 pm 32. SDben5:

3 am in Washington is …

3 am in Washington and New York and Miami.

Dec 5, 2008 - 8:47 pm 33. JFSanders:

Yes, what will be the “Ferdinand moment”?

That is the question now. Not if we can avoid it or minimize it. Too bad. Wrapping your head around the global interactions of large and small nations is a monumental one. But it is imperative that our intelligence community is working on this night and day. As the saying goes, “forewarned is forearmed”.

At this time the only primary actor making moves is Putin. He is pushing in S.America and in the middle east and also in eastern Europe. I believe that he is the trigger. It can also be said that America is making moves across the planet as well.

I can with some certainty say that the fault line is between Pakistan and India. With the Chinese supporting Pakistan and Russia supporting India. Can America stay away from getting embroiled in a contest between those four?

Will America get another “Pearl Harbor”? And if we do, does Wretchard’s hypothesis play itself out?

Jim

Dec 6, 2008 - 5:25 pm

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