117 Comments

1. Michelle Renee:

Wretchard, the video is back on YouTube here, but you have to sign in to see it, Hamas has flagged it as a naughty video of them getting caught with their pants down. Actually, the biggest reason YouTube pulled the video down was the comments section was turning into a cyberspace version of the Arab-Israeli war. You will note that the comments are disabled for this video.

Dec 31, 2008 - 1:43 am 2. ADE:

Things seem different this time. The Arab street does not seem as excited or to be getting the support of their Govts (if you’ll forgive the term). Only the useful idiots are unchanged.

However, this will be oblivious to Hamas, as they procede to punish this Dead Girl Walking.

ADE

Dec 31, 2008 - 1:45 am 3. Ledger:

“…The attack on Hamas headquarters then, is an act of humiliation as much as a physical targeting effort. It’s an attempt to publicly demonstrate their powerlessness before the people of Gaza. But it’s value over the long term can only be realized if the opposition to Hamas can seize the opportunity to improve ther own political position. Only the Palestinian people can make peace with Israel and overthrow their terrorist overlords.” –Wretchard

Ah, that is the rub. There are powerful state players in the game who bolster Hamas and their henchmen.

Israel is a small state surrounded my much larger states. These larger states want to wipe Israel off-of the map. I would like to see the scales balanced but I doubt they will be. Israel will have to fight for its life.

As we can see, Iran is openly supporting Hamas. There is a MSM blitz by Iran and Hamas to crush Israel. That type of power pumps-up Hamas and those who live around Hamas.

Although, Isreal air campaign has been fairly successful large stock piles of weapons are still in Hamas’ hands.

Further Israel supposedly telephoned individual homes of Hamas and other people giving them warning that they would be bombed. That of course makes the home dwellers leave and the weapons to be moved to a new location.

“The quantity of hardware up Hamas’ sleeve provides a clue to how hard and long Israel’s operation against Hamas is likely to be. Debka’s military sources report that Hamas still has some 6,000 missiles in its armory, of which some hundred are the high-grade Iran-made Grad Kayusha rockets.” – Debka

I believe leaving the Hamas command and control structure in place in Gaza is bad policy. The Hamas command and control structure will soon regroup its terrorists and continue to pound Israel with increasing more potent rockets. It would be easy for the Hamas command structure to use simple land wires, walkie-talkie chains, and even foot runners to manage to the re-supply and attacks on Israel. Gaza has about 40+ miles of coast line where agile vessels can supply additional weapons.

Debka notes:
“On Day 3 of the conflict, Hamas overcame the havoc Israel’s electronic warfare wrought to its communications system by deploying runners using every means of transport, from bikes to donkeys, to maintain connections within their force.”

There are only so many GBU-penetrators that Israel has (and some must be held in reserve for future operations). Time is against Israel.

Further, it appears Israel lacks proper bunkers for their civilian population and is resorting to large sewer pipes for make shift bunkers (which may have dangers of their own).

The Hamas command and control HQ could put Israel on the defensive and cause mass confusion within. At that point Isreali troops would have to be diverted to handle the internal situation or defend the boarders.

Ugly, as it might be I am doubtful that air power alone will not dislodge the command control centers dug in deeply. Men and armor will have to be used to destroy them. I am aware that Israeli tanks to have weak spots but that must be overcome. Some sort of decisive ground action will necessary and in short order.

Carl In Jerusalem:

“They informed me that the Home Front Command was planning on bringing in large sewer pipes. Yes, you read that correctly, sewer pipes, made of thick concrete, for our protection. The pipes would be distributed to each cul-de-sac. When the sirens wail we would run outside, crawl into our very own sewer pipe and wait five minutes or at least til we hear the explosion. Then we crawl out and return to our cardboard homes.”

See: Carl in Jerusalem
http://israelmatzav.blogspot.com/2008/12/jewish-refugees-from-gaza-hide-from.html

Dec 31, 2008 - 1:55 am 4. Ledger:

Pamela covers the MSM blitz in FL.

See: Federal building Broward Blvd. Fort Lauderdale Florida: Muslims rally against the Jewish state.
http://atlasshrugs2000.typepad.com/atlas_shrugs/2008/12/floridastan-isl.html

Dec 31, 2008 - 1:56 am 5. Ledger:

GP covers Iran’s intervention.

British Embassy Firebombed in Tehran– Iranians Storm Building & Raise Palestinian Flag

http://gatewaypundit.blogspot.com/2008/12/british-embassy-firebombed-in-tehran.html

Dec 31, 2008 - 1:58 am 6. Ledger:

“At the firing level maintained by Hamas Monday, Dec. 29 – roughly 100 missiles and rockets hit Israeli locations – the Palestinian group can keep going for another 60 days – if its stocks remain hidden underground.”

See: Day 4
http://www.debka.com/headline.php?hid=5811

See: Debka on bunkers

Dec 31, 2008 - 2:00 am 7. GeorgeAtkisson:

If Israel fails to use its land forces to root out Hamas and search out and destroy as many rockets as possible, 3 months from now, it will be seen throughout the Arab world as a victory for Hamas for “surviving”. Did Israel learn the lessons of its 2006 war or not? We shall see.

Dec 31, 2008 - 2:16 am 8. Ledger:

Carl in Jerusalem on Hamas’ use of Human shields:

[Video]

“The goal is to convince Palestinians, including women and children, not to fear death but even to face it at the front to protect Hamas fighters… The following is the full text of the comments by Hamas representative Fathi Hamad: “For the Palestinian people death became an industry, at which women excel and so do all people on this land: the elderly excel, the Jihad fighters excel, and the children excel. Accordingly [Palestinians] created a human shield of women, children, the elderly and the Jihad fighters against the Zionist bombing machine, as if they were saying to the Zionist enemy: We desire death as you desire life.”

Video: Hamas explains its use of human shields
http://israelmatzav.blogspot.com/2008/12/video-hamas-explains-its-use-of-human.html

Dec 31, 2008 - 2:18 am 9. ADE:

GeorgeAtkisson
Did Israel learn the lessons of its 2006 war or not?

Israel has certainly learnt the lessons of The Surge – there must be no doubt in the local (terrorised) population that the terror is going to end with the good guys winning. This certainty will generate the leads to the arms caches, the underground tunnels, the bad guys.

This is why Olmert is right to say that this war goes all the way to the smashing of Hamas.

As he can only say this once and retain credibility, I would not like to be Hamas in Gaza at the moment.

ADE

Dec 31, 2008 - 2:56 am 10. ADE:

Good summary of the Hamas Occupation of Palestine and the joy it brings the locals: Hamas as a Political Failure

ADE

Dec 31, 2008 - 3:27 am 11. RWE:

First, HAPPY NEW YEAR WRETCHARD!

Second, note that the Israelis are not only launching air attacks but also sending relief supplies and saying that the Palestinian people are not their enemies. This appears to be a new approach.

Also note the recent publically warm relationships between the Fatah leader and the Israelis during the Christmas season.

Anyone wanna bet that those relief supplies are being distributed through Fatah?

As I said before, Israel is degrading Hamas capabilities, destroying them physically, harming their leigitmacy – and almost certainly doing the exact opposite for Fatah. And all this before the Palestinian elections now being planned.

Dec 31, 2008 - 6:17 am 12. Lifeofthemind:

This was a posted a few hours ago on the Muqata (muqata.blogspot.com) blog:
1:25PM BREAKING Rockets landing in Israel are of Chinese manufacture, transported by Iran, via Egypt/Sinai through tunnels under the Rafiach crossing into Gaza. (Confirmed by Army spokesman)
Additionally rockets are packed with ball bearings that spread up to 100M from rocket strike.

Dec 31, 2008 - 7:45 am 13. Peter Boston:

Where is Israel’s Scipio Africanus?

Israel only plays at war and will lose their liberty because of it.

Dec 31, 2008 - 8:02 am 14. Herb:

RWE #11

War is politics by other means or vice versa. I read elsewhere that FATAH was not being real supportive of their brethren.

If the Israelites pushed into Gaza and ran this bunch out (I mean all of them not just the HAMAS mob), where do they send them? Egypt? Physically easiest but no takers there. Jordan? Dont think so. Syria? Nah. Lebanon? Could. Nobody to say no, but transport is a problem.

Part of Israel’s problem is that back in the day they/we permitted the Palestinians to be concentrated in a set of locations where their complaints and cultural proclivity toward victimhood could be fed and supported to a toxic level. (They’re still, after 50 years, referred to as “refugees”) Had they been dispersed to the surrounding countries with the same languages and similar cultures, they would have likely been absorbed. Some would still be whining, but I suspect the vast majority would have moved on. In Gaza and the west bank, the cant because of a welfare society and reinforcement of their status as victims.

Putting of a problem merely exacerbates it, now to a point where it may not be solved short of a catclysm.

Dec 31, 2008 - 8:07 am 15. Tom Holsinger:

The long-range goal of the Israeli government is to survive the next election.

Dec 31, 2008 - 9:10 am 16. Tinfoil Hatter:

While operations in Gaza might appear to be a counterinsurgency, they aren’t in the traditional sense. While the tools of the counterinsurgent might be employed, the end state and strategic context of force are HIGHLY DIFFERENT.

Operations in Gaza represent a unique part of the spectrum of military operations, neither a counter-insurgency or conventional conflict. It straddles the divide between conventional conflict and counterinsurgency, borrowing elements of the two. Much of the kinetic operations, especially with regard to small unit actions and intelligence, will be similar, however, the end state is very different. This is important, for example, because the RoE employed will be much different. Thus, this effects the deploying unit and the soldier in the street.

HAMAS is insurgent type combatant, but their general control of the population is not in doubt. The Izzies won’t gain a single thing from throwing soccer balls from their Merkavas.

The IDF cannot wedge the population from HAMAS; Pali IO have been too pervasive for that to be successful. Indeed, the more successful that Israeli operations are tactically, the more that the population will cling to HAMAS as means and symbol of resistance. Thus, the only true victory will probably be the Israelis being able to shatter HAMAS to the extent that Fatah can somehow reenter Gaza in strength and defeat HAMAS in detail.

Dec 31, 2008 - 9:48 am 17. Don Meaker:

Israelis have 24-7 video coverage of Gaza. Sending messages by bicycle runners is a sure fire way to reveal one’s headquarters. HAMAS can only survive by not sending messages. Even if the messengers never return, the Israelis have the technology to run their surveilance tapes backwards!

One way to win would be to kill HAMAS terrorists faster than they are produced by the Arab nations moving their criminals to Gaza.

Dec 31, 2008 - 9:58 am 18. Taxpayer:

In hindsight, Israel made a mistake in ‘67. They should have permanently annexed the entire West Bank and Gaza, and repatriated the residents to Jordan. They would have ended up with defensible borders. Its hard to think their political situation could be any worse.

That may still be the only real solution.

Dec 31, 2008 - 10:07 am 19. Dave:

I wish Israel a happy “Uncle Billy”.

Dec 31, 2008 - 10:16 am 20. E. Nigma:

As Tom said, the long-range goal of the Israeli government is to survive until the next election.
I think this is just a “spoiling” attack, even if not thought of as such by the Israelis themselves (conceptually). The have hostiles on at least three fronts: Syria in the norhtwest over the Golan, Hezbollah in the North (Lebanon) and Hamas on the southwestern flank (Gaza). Plus, Iran over the horizon, beyond tactical reach.

This attack knocks back Hamas for a little while. This will not be a decisive engagement. There is no political will in Israel at this time for that sort of action.

Dec 31, 2008 - 10:20 am 21. RWE:

Herb:

You get my point, apparently without realizing it.

If Israel did a steamroller operation to the western borders of Gaza then they would have the problem of what to do with everyone.

By supporting Fatah and harming Hamas, the problem of what to do with Hamas ain’t their problem. It is a Palestinian problem. And if Fatah decided to hold mass firing squads to get rid of Hamas, well, hey, the Clintonistas took all the “W’s” off the keyboards in the White House when they left, and this is no different in concept.

I understand that in reality Hamas being voted in was more of reflection of the post-Arafat disarray in Fatah than it was a great love for Hamas. Hamas ran one candidate, and the remnants of Fatah ran a half dozen or more, all trying to take over from Arafat.

As far as the idea of deporting the Palestinians in ‘47 or ‘67 the only way they could have done that would be to invade and conquer all those places they wanted to deport them to and then say “Okay here is your share of the people we don’t want. Y’all have a nice day.”

Just as the U.S. is the only place in the world that has “White People”, Palestine is the only place that has Palestinians. All the others are Egyptians and Syrians and Persians and so forth. And none of them like each other the least little bit.

Dec 31, 2008 - 10:30 am 22. Contrarian:

The central problem Israel faces is it’s vacillating leadership–the same basic leadership that withdrew from Gaza in the first place and led the badly-fought war again Hezbollah. The Jerusalem Post has an editorial today by David Horowitz discussing this:

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1230456537090&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

Dec 31, 2008 - 10:36 am 23. swingin:

I agree with tinfoil about Israeli attempts to isolate the HAMAS parasite from its population host. It appears that the average Palestinian Arab is too far gone to conclude that HAMAS is their enemy and Israel their friend – or at least that HAMAS is their enemy under conditions of bombardment. Such a pursuit may be noble and rational, but if the squalor and media operations in Gaza and the West Bank are as thorough as they appear to be there does not seem to be much real hope for the strategy. It would be better for Israel to simply physically eliminate as many actual HAMAS members, particularly among its ruling cadre, as possible. Perhaps the only way to avoid the ambiguous outcome you point to, Wretchard, would be for IDF/intel operations to culminate in the death of at least one primary HAMAS personality. Israel should not wage wars of attrition predicated on any party’s change of heart. Of course the Gaza Arabs could wake up tomorrow and realize its real enemy is HAMAS, but that population is after all very small, subject to very thorough control enforced by very vicious men. And surely they have noticed by now that all the international sympathy in the world hasn’t delivered them from the ghetto. Still, Israel should just kill as many HAMAS as possible. I hope they do.

Personally though I think that the immediate post-truce (and pre-truce) HAMAS rocket barrages were a provocation in a much larger enemy push. I’m not sure Israel can do more than they are doing.

Dec 31, 2008 - 10:37 am 24. novanglus:

#8: The following is the full text of the comments by Hamas representative Fathi Hamad: “For the Palestinian people death became an industry, at which women excel and so do all people on this land: the elderly excel, the Jihad fighters excel, and the children excel. Accordingly [Palestinians] created a human shield of women, children, the elderly and the Jihad fighters against the Zionist bombing machine, as if they were saying to the Zionist enemy: We desire death as you desire life.”
–
So, Israel and the West should grant them what they desire. This is the season of giving, so we must give and give until they beg that we stop. Then, there can be peace. Peace is the period that comes after victory. Alas, the current Israeli government, indeed all the West is too infested with “poleznye idioty”.

Dec 31, 2008 - 10:42 am 25. swingin:

well, well, well… look who’s making announcements with HAMAS…

http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/meast/12/31/gaza.israel/index.html

shocking.

Dec 31, 2008 - 10:43 am 26. buckets:

In Ariel Sharon’s (auto)biography “Warrior,” he ultimately concluded that “peace” with the Palestinians was very possible. I think he may have been being honest when he wrote that, especially given 1) His experience and tremendous success in the peace process with Egypt 2) his experience and moderate success in combating the palestinian terror groups before Arafat and the current Pan-Islamic ideology 3) His giving Gaza over to the palestinians before he was incapacitated.

I think he was absolutely wrong in his belief in the peace process, but I think he may have been sincere. One wonders how the situation would have enfolded if Sharon were still running things, instead of the weak bumbler Olmert. Sharon would have been forced to abandon the peace process, to be sure, but I also think he would have done a superior job navigating the troubled waters. Would Hamas and Hizballah have been so bold if the combat-tested Sharon was facing them down? I think not, and I lament Sharon’s absence and Israel’s lack of a long-term strategy.

Dec 31, 2008 - 11:14 am 27. Tony:

I was wondering what happened to the Iron Dome anti-missile system we heard about last year. News is not so hot, from Haaretz, 2/22/08:
One need not be privy to classified information in order to understand that Iron Dome is not the solution to the Qassam rockets. The data are public knowledge: The Qassam’s speed in the air is 200 meters per second. The distance from the edge of Beit Hanun to the outskirts of Sderot is 1,800 meters. Therefore, a rocket launched from Beit Hanun takes about nine seconds to hit Sderot. The developers of Iron Dome at Rafael Advance Defense Systems know that the preparations to simply launch the intercept missiles at their target take up to about 15 seconds (during which time the system locates the target, determines the flight path and calculates the intercept route). Obviously, then, the Qassam will slam into Sderot quite a number of seconds before the missile meant to intercept it is even launched.

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/956859.html

Sounds like NORAD vs. the 9/11 hijackers – wrong fit.

Dec 31, 2008 - 11:17 am 28. Herb:

RWE:

Clearly the Israelis cant clear this mess out. Their bet is that they can “do business” with FATAH. Its like supporting the Mafia against the Columbians.
A thug is a thug. Some are more rational than others.

Having lots and lots of really big and accurate guns means that saying “lets you and him fight” may be an offer they cant refuse.

Dec 31, 2008 - 11:30 am 29. Tony:

The Philly Inquirer (Pinkwire) ran a lead editorial blaming George Bush for what’s happening in Gaza right now, and implored Obama to fix it quick and personal-like as soon as he gets in. Sher.

Today, the Pinky dutifully documents the Stop the Bombing micro-event downtown:
http://www.philly.com/inquirer/home_region/20081231_Phila__marchers_protest_Israeli_attacks.html

“We’re trying to call attention to the brutal bombing going on in Gaza and the killing of innocent children,” said Sam Kuttab, 49, owner of a security firm in North Philadelphia who described himself as chairman of the Asian Federation of the United States.

“We also want to remind Barack Obama that we voted for him because he talked about hope and change, and we want to make sure that he honors our hope for a change in U.S. policy in the Middle East.”

Don’t worry, once the murderous Palis get a load of SecState Hillary, they’ll get all changey-hopey and everything will be just great.

I’m trying to dig up the old LGF links to videos of Palestinians dancing in the streets celebrating the attacks on 9/11/01. They should put those on TV, to put the proper perspective on the poor, persecuted Palistinians.

Dec 31, 2008 - 11:38 am 30. Tony:

Ahh, here’s some YouTube links of the Palestinians gleeful celebrations on 9/11/01:
Fox – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KrM0dAFsZ8k

CNN – http://www.metacafe.com/watch/302316/palestinians_celebrating_9_11_from_cnn/

Dec 31, 2008 - 12:03 pm 31. mouse:

I’m developing the uneasy feeling that Israel is on the way to embarrassing herself again. They’re bombing buildings. That means they don’t have the faintest idea what they’re doing. Their first wave, utilizing deception and speed, was lethal. A good shot. It appears it may have been their only shot. Now they’re just blowing things up. It’s as meaningless as when they bombed bridges in Lebanon.

Against Hamas, whose felt superiority is not in the capacity of their armaments but in their greater passion and faith, the only dissuasion to belief in their eventual triumph is suffering the massive infliction of death. Martyrs may be a matter for rejoicing, but if their are more martyrs than celebrants the efficacy of the faith, or at least of the tactics of its present advocates, comes under question, that would be true both for Hamas itself and for the population they govern.

The only meaningful war Israel can engage in is one against personnel. If they can’t kill the Hamas warrior they might just as well go home and hunker down under the shelling. They’ve lost.

It may be they have lost. It may be that as a nation they’re is no longer capable of war. In a place like the Middle East, if you aren’t willing to sacrifice your young men, you’ve sacrificed your society. This present onslaught has all the characteristics of an expression of pique, but none of the commitment to war.

Dec 31, 2008 - 12:16 pm 32. programmer:

Dave says:

I wish Israel a happy “Uncle Billy”.

progrmmer (plagiarizing Wikipedia) says:

Sherman’s March to the Sea followed his successful Atlanta Campaign of May to September 1864. He and U.S. Army commander, Lt. Gen. Ulysses S. Grant, believed that the Civil War would end only if the Confederacy’s strategic, economic, and psychological capacity for warfare were decisively broken. Sherman therefore applied the principles of scorched earth, ordering his troops to burn crops, kill livestock, consume supplies, and destroy civilian infrastructure along their path. This policy is often considered a component strategy of total war. The recent reelection of President Abraham Lincoln ensured that short-term political pressure would not be applied to restrain these tactics.

programmer (without the help of Wikipedia) says:

Hmmmmm…..Abraham Lincoln, you say…

Dec 31, 2008 - 1:00 pm 33. jms:

I took a lesson from the previous Israel/Lebanon war that I think has gone unappreciated. When Israel left Lebanon, Iran immediately poured money and resources into Lebanon, replacing both their ruined military infrastructure and the civilian infrastructure as well. This was enormously expensive for Iran, and Iran would not have repaired all the houses and roads so fast if it wasn’t absolutely vital to their population control strategy.

Fast forward to when Hamas broke the Israeli blockade by blowing open the Egyptian border. One of the common threads in interviews with Gaza residents who ran the border for supplies was that they were stunned and shaken when they encountered actual poverty conditions in Egypt.

What I take away from that is that Palestinian “poverty” is actually professional, staged poverty. In reality, Hamas is providing them with food, water, electricity, sewers, and just enough material comforts that the population accepts Hamas as the “cost” of living in an externally subsidized welfare state.

The difference between then and now is that then, Iran was swimming in oil revenues. Iran is now cash strapped. If Israel were to focus on destroying Gaza infrastructure — roads, the power grid, fresh water and sewer infrastructure — they could easily put Iran in a position where “making good” with Gaza would cost hundreds of billions of dollars. The ultimate goal would be for Iran to be forced to “write off” the entire Gaza/Hamas project. A few months without water, sewer or electricity should turn the population against Hamas.

If Iran did step up and restore the Gaza infrastructure at ruinous cost, they might become more careful about restraining Hamas, as the lesson would remain that angering Israel carries a high price tag in real dollars.

Dec 31, 2008 - 1:22 pm 34. Eggplant:

In a previous comment thread, Jonathan Levy made some insightful comments:

“Hamas presents itself as a leader of the Palestinians. Its claim is based on its preserving their Honor. Their Honor is preserved by their refusal to be defeated by Israel. Their refusal to surrender is based on their willingness to strike at Israel. The price they pay is not a deterrent to them – on the contrary, it increases their Honor. The higher the price they are willing to pay, the greater their Honor.”

I believe this analysis describes Hamas’ motivation. Hamas really doesn’t have a strategic end objective. All they are really attempting to do is maintain a “state of mind”, i.e. their “honor”.

It seems to me that Israel’s reply is obvious. Demonstrate that Hamas’ actions are not “honorable” in the Arab/Islamic context of “honor”. This is not to be confused with the Anglo-Saxon concept of honor (try to think like an Arab). I believe(?) the Arab/Islamic concept of “honor” requires enormous sacrifice on the part of Hamas (martyrdom) while inflicting some damage upon the Israelis (Let me lose both my eyes, so long as I poke out one of yours). Hamas loses its claim to leadership of the Palestinians if they are shown to be without honor. Israel must convey the impression that the Qassam rocket attacks have been nothing but inconsequental pin pricks, e.g. they’ve been mildly annoyed by a buzzing fly. Israel’s response needs to seem effortless, e.g. Israel waves away the annoying fly without giving it a second thought. The destruction in the Gaza strip should be focused upon material damage while minimizing the opportunity for martyrdom, i.e. warn people to flee the buildings before the bombs fall. The desired end state is for the residents of the Gaza strips to be surrounded with ruin and misery while the Hamas leaders remain alive and uninjured. If reconstruction aid comes through Fatah then Hamas’ loss of honor is all the more striking.

Dec 31, 2008 - 1:33 pm 35. RWE:

Herb: Yes that’s right. This may be as much about fostering friction between Fatah and Hamas as anything.

Just saw on FNC a Heritage Foundation expert saying that a reconciliation between Fatah and Hamas was to be feared, because it would be much more likely to push the “moderate” Fatah toward the Hamas viewpoint than vice versa.

And such a reconciliation is/was in the works. Discussions were proceeding in Egypt toward a revived, revised, and “reformed” Fatah, a less confrontational approach with Hamas, and a push for new elections in Gaza.

No doubt there are many people in Fatah that would rather see Hamas blown up before they do any reconciliation.

This is likely less like the 6 Day War and more like the IDF helping out a Palestinian Operation Valkyrie.

Dec 31, 2008 - 1:42 pm 36. Fred2:

I agree with tinfoil that this is not a classic insurgency/terrorism situation. Hamas is like the government of Gaza.

Asymmetrical warfare implies the insurgents don’t have headquarters they need to defend. But the insurgents do need a cross-border sanctuary. Hamas misses on both these counts. The rockets Hamas is using is considered conventional artillery. Of course, Hamas doesn’t use them competently, but it’s still artillery.

For this to work out well for Israel, it must make permanent improvements in the ground situation. Such as blockading all those smuggling tunnels. Mere breakage and kick-butt won’t be enough.

Dec 31, 2008 - 1:51 pm 37. elijah:

IAF Pursue Subterranean Targets with Earth Penetrators, Bunker Busters

Dec 31, 2008 - 2:31 pm 38. Larry Sheldon:

Legitimate objectives include destroying the enemy’s will to fight, his ability to fight, and destroy and demoralize his support structure, including supporting civilians.

Dec 31, 2008 - 3:04 pm 39. DougS:

One of the things that Christopher Tyerman emphasizes in his recent history of the Crusades is the extent to which Christian and Muslim principalities were willing to play ball with each other when it suited their immediate interests, in both the Middle East and Spain. So it wouldn’t surprise me at all if Israel and Fatah are actively cooperating with each other (and I read somewhere that Fatah is rumored to have supplied the IDF with targeting info), not does it surprise me terribly that the Arab states are merely stroking their chins and watching with interest as Israel pummels the proxy of the hated/feared Persians. “Twas ever thus.

Dec 31, 2008 - 3:39 pm 40. Tony:

Elijah, yep – you could see it on the TV news the other night, the signature vertical plume of the bunker busters. Sniper war using finned Mk82.

Dec 31, 2008 - 3:47 pm 41. Earl:

#27 Tony

It is the PHALANX system that IL should have deployed months ago- NOT Iron Dome.

A PHALANX array sealing in Gaza could take care of the missile threat, whilst leaving the “Palestinians” witha very tangible choice: cease launching missiles on IL forthwith, or be subjected to showers of missile detritus and 20mm autocannon rounds.

I reckon that a few bouts of that scenario would cause a behaviour change in even the most rabid jihadi. Am I wrong? Who knows- like so many opportunities to save Israeli citizens from death/maiming, the feckless Olmert “government” has chosen not to effect this solution.

Dec 31, 2008 - 3:50 pm 42. M. Simon:

The targets are economic. To regain its prestige buildings will have to be rebuilt.

What we see is not military warfare. It is economic warfare.

How much does a martyr cost? $5,000? X 300 = $1.5 million. That is graft that needs to be taken out of some supporter’s pocket.

What is a building worth? $2 million? One hundred of them is $200 million.

Iran is short of cash right now. This is an effort to bleed them. There will be no ground assault.

Dec 31, 2008 - 5:14 pm 43. Annoy Mouse:

Carolyn Glick from the J-Post says that Hamas legalized crucifiction over Christmas. Lovely idea if true. The muslim zealots of Hamas are just now discovering barbarity.

I wish the BBC and the Ap would look into that a little closer… oh right, about those filthy joos.

Dec 31, 2008 - 6:23 pm 44. Lifeofthemind:

@Earl,
Phalanx was for terminal phase point defense, not for boost phase intercept. While some sort of very high speed interceptors could work for longer range ballistic missiles, that is why the Navy is planning to station advanced Aegis platforms off the coast of Korea, it doesn’t work for the low altitude short range weapons seen here. Given time the brain surgeons should come up with new toys to address this problem.

@Tony,
Similar issue, The US ABM C&C system is for initiating Patriot/Arrow intercepts of Iranian M/IRBMs, not tactical weapons like Katyushas. However it probably could feed targeting information to counter-battery artillery or terminal defense systems. The employment of counter-battery is inhibited by the Philistines use of civilian cover for their operations. Technically it should be very possible to set up a system by which any missile launch from within Gaza is replied to within seconds. If the CEP (circular error of probability) of the response is (for argument I have no classified knowledge here) such that at the 90% confidence level all impacts are within 25 yards of the aim point then launch crews would face a high loss rate. For normal battle field conditions that would be excellent. It is possible that Israel may choose to go that route in the future. Customary International Law would support them doing so. Nevertheless we all know that the first time the system responded to an attack from a school yard or a hospital the political impact would be a tsunami. The fact that the missiles were themselves being launched not only from schools but at schools would be ignored. That is why the Israelis are using the much more expensive method of having helicopters act as flying artillery. Eventually the response times will improve but it is still an imperfect answer.

Dec 31, 2008 - 7:06 pm 45. Annoy Mouse:

I think that if Israel was to credibly consider attacking Iran, they’d want to beat back Hamas first to keep their backs clear. Just thinking.

Dec 31, 2008 - 7:12 pm 46. Annoy Mouse:

lotm,
True Phalanx are meant to shred an incoming anti-ship missile against an armored target. Shredding missiles filled with ball bearings against a soft target, probably less effective.

Counter battery, though good policy, not very effective because these Kayushas do not need some guy to light the fuse like a sky rocket. 24/7 aereal surveillance the most effective defense. Like planting IED’s in the night people have a logistics tail. The poor bastards setting them up need to point them too if they want to hit a kindergarten.

I am waiting for airborne lasers to be employed. Though not the role of the airborne laser system, seems a possible good fit if a target solution can be had in time, though I imagine collateral damage from a laser ought to create some interesting problems.

Dec 31, 2008 - 7:27 pm 47. NahnCee:

Could any of the weaponry being used by Israel now against Hamas be the same sort of armament supplied to Pakistan and India by USA/Russia/China?

So the military leaders in India, for example, could be watching to see how missiles in their possession actually work in the field? And Pakistan’s army can see what would happen to Islamabad once India started in on them?

Or totally different game, players and scenario?

Dec 31, 2008 - 7:33 pm 48. Josh:

I’m not quite as gloomy as #31 mouse, but share many of the same concerns that Israel’s tactics and strategy are, let’s say, ineffective, bombing buildings and leaving the people and ideology untouched. Discredit Hamas? Not enough, same error Bush41 made in Iraq, indeed, same error Bush43 made in Iraq.

Maybe you (we, the west) can “win on points” like this, as maybe Israel won in Lebanon a year ago, on points, not by any kind of knockout or surrender. But I am constantly amazed, offended, scared, by the use of major assets, to do so little real damage. It discredits the entire use of force. Better not to get out the big guns, in such cases. The Israelis are terrorizing the entire Palestinian population, I consider that horrible, but worse than that, not productive or effective. Hamas gets points for it, Israel loses points. World opinion, or their own, won’t let Israel go nearly far enough in that direction.

I’m not sure I’m expressing this quite clearly, but I am concerned that Olmert’s late use of force, is only marginally better than his unconcionceable avoidance of force earlier.

Dec 31, 2008 - 8:08 pm 49. Lifeofthemind:

The attack is being pressed across the globe. Don not think that you can hide.
http://pajamasmedia.com/phyllischesler/2008/12/31/gaza-comes-to-america-hate-demonstrations-against-israel-on-the-east-and-west-coasts/

Dec 31, 2008 - 8:36 pm 50. fred:

Unfortunately, for Israel to truly win this long war with her Arab neighbors would take all-out war that not only degrades the enemy in his military infrastructure but also is punitive. Israel will never be allowed to inflict enough pain on the Arabs so that they would finally give up Allah’s commands to restore the integrity and honor of the Ummah.

Incursions like Lebanon in 2006 and this one only buy Israel time and postpone the day when a reckoning has to be settled once and for all. History is full of examples of how kicking the can down the road eventually means the journey of history outpaces your best calculations.

Dec 31, 2008 - 9:40 pm 51. Achillea:

“Such as blockading all those smuggling tunnels.”

I recall quite some time back reading about possible plans to dig and flood a canal along the Gaza/Egypt border. What ever became of that?

Dec 31, 2008 - 11:14 pm 52. Utopia Parkway:

W asks, more or less, what is Israel waiting for?

Apparently the weather is predicted to be rainy the next couple days. Tanks + APCs + mud isn’t a good mix. Maybe they’re just waiting for the weather to clear before launching the ground op.

Perhaps they’re waiting for a particular piece of intelligence. Meanwhile they’re dropping more bombs on Hamas.

This analyst suggests that Israel’s goal is anarchy, which he thinks Israel would desire to bring down Hamas. I don’t agree. It’s too unreliable and would take too long to work.

On the one hand Israel doesn’t have unlimited time to prosecute this operation, on the other hand they don’t have to rush. IMO, no one will be stopping Israel. Hamas has no friends, except Syria and Iran. Everyone in the intl community would like to see Hamas gone, but no one wants to do the job. Israel is the only country with the ability and possibly the will to do it. I think that Mr Abbass would like to see Hamas gone. I think he probably tells that to the kings of Jordan and Saudi and the Pres of Egypt when he speaks to them. Hamas is seen clearly as an Iranian outpost in the Levant, and nobody wants it to succeed.

The Leb war in 2006 went on for over a month. It was stopped when it became clear that Israel wasn’t going to execute on its goals of destroying Hez. Israel was given the opportunity at that time to execute but it didn’t do it. I think it will be given the same opportunity this time to proceed. The conditions are that there be no humanitarian crisis and that not too many civilians be killed. As long as those conditions are met I think Israel will be allowed to proceed.

The question remains: what are the Israeli goals? I think it’s 75% likely that they will go all the way and topple Hamas. But it remains to be seen.

@LifeOfTheMind, the equipment that I haven’t heard one word about but think might be a big hit is the Rafael Trophy APS. It was apparently adopted by Israel after the 2006 war. I saw some photos of Israeli tanks on the move today with some sacks over something on the turret. I wonder if that might be this system.

Jan 1, 2009 - 12:03 am 53. Charles:

imho the Iranians put the palestinians up to the increased rocket attacks — to push up the price of oil. however, with oil prices low the iranians won’t be there to rebuild the palestinian economy.

I think the israelis are doing fine. They just keep killing hamas and destroying their cool stuff. Maybe Hamas will turn on their fellow Palestinians and demand some of their cool stuff and demand their sons join Hamas to replace the dead Hamas soldiers.

Jan 1, 2009 - 12:29 am 54. Jonathan Levy:

Eggplant,

Your suggestion (”convey the impression that the Qassam rocket attacks have been nothing but inconsequental pin pricks”) would certainly be the way to go against Hamas. However, this is impossible for several reasons. The damage of the rockets must be stressed, not deprectaed, in order to:
1) Justify the attacks to the outside world.
2) Justify the Palestinian casualties for the Israeli audience.
3) Justify Israeli casualties (soldiers) for the Israeli audience.
4) Internal cohesion. Israelis (myself included) feel terribly guilty for living their lives calmly while their brothers in the south are under fire. Stressing their suffering is a way of participating in it. To minimize it would be seen as horribly callous. As in “Go live there yourself before you speak like that”.

Similarly, if we could only say “Who cares about Gilad Shalit, it’s just one soldier” convincingly enough, we might get him back, but it will never be done.

One more thought. A Ynet (hebrew) quotes a hamas operative (Sarur): (My translation) “The picture of Eli Yishai (a minister) throwing himself flat on the ground as a missile approaches… is a sign that Hamas is winning.”

Jan 1, 2009 - 2:58 am 55. JFSanders:

“Hamas spokesman Taher Nunu said that although Hamas leaders had been driven underground, the Gaza government was functioning and had met in the past few days.

“What our people want is clear: an immediate stop to all kinds of aggression, the end of the siege by all means, the opening of all border crossings, and international guarantees that the occupation will not renew this terrorist war again,” Nunu said.” APsortanews.

Now that is a serious delusion on his part. And if Hamas believes that and a majority of “Palestinians” believe that. Then the ground troops will have to scour the countryside of them. Let them be “refugees” in Syria and Iran.

The Russians are given a pass when they say they need a protective buffer. Why is it not so for Isreal?

There is a Grand strategy at play here. Can we put our minds together and determine who the puppeteers are?

Jim

Jan 1, 2009 - 6:03 am 56. Earl:

#44 LifeotM

Thx., I had wondered about angle of interception issues. Had the boffins at Rafael been on the job much earlier, I don’t doubt that combined with IL’s exisitng counter-battery capability, PHALANX (or similar) could be developed to create a cordon sanitaire around Gaza.

Parenthetically, when I visited Sederot in November, I was shocked/livid that the Olmert “government” would abandon the citizens to such Islamist barbarity. Here’s a rough analogy: a group of Islamists uses Canada’s notoriously-lax “refugee” laws to enter the country. They set up mosque in the tiny town of Napanee, ON- and commence to lob. Rockets across Lake Ontario into Rochester, NY. Know what we’d shortly call Napanee? “The smoking ruins of the former town of Napanee”. Olmert-Livni-Barak’s lack of will until last weekend is absolutely astonishing.

Jan 1, 2009 - 6:53 am 57. Charles:

One more thought. A Ynet (hebrew) quotes a hamas operative (Sarur): (My translation) “The picture of Eli Yishai (a minister) throwing himself flat on the ground as a missile approaches… is a sign that Hamas is winning.”
………….

I think this is a sign that this war is designed to be primarily a media war.

Jan 1, 2009 - 7:13 am 58. what is occupation:

I see the continued and increased Hamas rocket attacks into Israel as a good thing…

Hamas may not be the IDF but it believes it’s own propaganda…

Israel will go into Gaza and cut it into 5 areas…

it will then drain the swamp (to quote bibi) section by section

Hamas plans to do an Iraq on israel….

allow the take over with minimal resistance and blend with the locals and at night come out for night ops….

I think Hamas believes this will bleed the IDF after a time and make them leave defeated…

I think Israel has already considered this…

I think the IDF will be USING Fatah and others in the strip to ID the hamas safe houses….

Hamas forgets that the IDF watches over the strip with drones and databases…

Hamas is using runners and bikes to communicate with one another.

The weather is clearing and Hamas has used Chinese made Rockets with ball bearings…

the beauty of the situation is that Hamas is not a “unarmed” group of kids with rocks, it’s a multi billion dollar internationally funded and supplied war effort at destroying the Jewish state and it will fail

Israel is not fighting kids…. the persistent reporting about “396 people killed in the gaza strip” is disgusting… Israel is overwhelmingly killed armed, adult hamas fighters/militants/terrorists…

Watching the world’s stage this time around (as compared to 2006 hezbollah) the world is reacting even less than when a few guys drew old Mo cartoons…

Nope Hamas and Iran have overplayed their hands and misjudged the world…

The world could give a crap about Hamas….

and Russia still have it’s own occupation stuck in it’s throat…

oil is cheap…

and all of Hamas’s friends are if not broke getting there….

Jan 1, 2009 - 7:46 am 59. 907ie:

“some hundred are the high-grade Iran-made Grad Kayusha rockets.”

Iranian made?

Then bomb the Iranian production facilities & support facilties.
After that you won’t have to worry about any more Chinese made rockets either.

As far as the bombing in Gaza, it seems the west loses wars where collateral damage is minimized.
I say maximize collateral damage, just like was done with the European & Pacific theaters in WWII, if you want to win.
Declare Gaza a “failed experiment”, ship it’s residents out, clean it up and annex it back into Israel permanently.
Then turn your attention to the West Bank!

No matter what the Jews do, they will be condemned internationally, so just go ahead and do the right thing.
Don’t tell anyone, just do it!

Jan 1, 2009 - 8:36 am 60. Leo Linbeck III:

what is occupation,

Is this another way of saying that Israel plans to use Petraus’ counterinsurgency strategy and tactics, with Fatah security forces playing the role of the 1920 Revolution Brigades? If so, it’s an intriguing idea.

BTW: The JPost is reporting that a senior Hamas leader, Nizar Rayyan, was killed in the latest attacks.

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1230733129086&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

So maybe there is an increasing focus now on human vs. physical assets. Or maybe the IDF got a break.

Cheers,
L3

Jan 1, 2009 - 8:55 am 61. Reno Sepulveda:

>>>As far as the bombing in Gaza, it seems the west loses wars where collateral damage is minimized.
I say maximize collateral damage, just like was done with the European & Pacific theaters in WWII, if you want to win.<<<

One day the bombing will stop and Israel will have to live with the survivors, carpet bombing makes bad memories. Save that strategy and those munitions for the Persians.

Jan 1, 2009 - 9:10 am 62. Josh:

I dunno, maybe proportional response would be best. Israel should fire random, small, amateur missiles at random locations in Gaza.

You know, quite seriously, that might be better than what they are doing.

Jan 1, 2009 - 10:04 am 63. NahnCee:

Josh – why?

Jan 1, 2009 - 11:25 am 64. Tcobb:

Culture, culture, culture. What a trap we weave for ourselves. Given that the Arab leaders are nothing more than kleptocrats who have their own personal interests as their prime directive, what the Israelis should do is to make it clear that any and all of the leaders of Hamas will be killed, even if this means taking out a million school children when the hammer falls. We find you, we kill you. The idea that you can kill the foot soldiers but the leaders are somehow immune from direct and lethal action is a stupid relic of Western civilization that dates from Medieval times when war was a sport of the nobility.

Jan 1, 2009 - 12:49 pm 65. ibrahim:

Your post reminds me nassrallah’s speech few days ago.. He totally blamed Egypt for this whole situation!

You have to see a clip that my friend sent me.. What Do You Think About It?!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=553vSPJNRzg

Jan 1, 2009 - 12:54 pm 66. Limpet6:

It is all fluid fun to be the guerrilla, You have no one you are responsible for. You have no real estate to protect, you just annoy and destroy. Logistics are simple, You don’t need much in the way of numbers.

Poor Hamas attempted to go beyond that. It now administrates Gaza. That means it must maintain a “city hall” and various bureaucracies,k infrastructure, defense…etc. It has lost all the fluidity and mystery of guerrilla warfare and fixed itself in place.

Hamas has the strengths, such as they are, the strengths of guerrillas, but it must now be on the defensive and protect both people and edifices.

It can’t do that. Moreover it must to look to Iran’s pocketbook to rebuild. What the price per barrel of oil these days.

Jan 1, 2009 - 1:47 pm 67. A Conservative Teacher:

Very good comment. It seems like now days we are trying to destroy evil and defeat the bad guys without killing them. That’s nice, but really, how effective is it?

I guess if you destroy all the material that terrorists use, that would include food and homes, and then people might starve or reproduce less- it’s a lot quicker to just kill them than go that route.

Jan 1, 2009 - 6:04 pm 68. NahnCee:

Sneaking up — slowly slowly slowly — on the idea that it’s OK to kill women and children so long as (1) they’re Palestinian, and (2) can be assumed to be brainwashed and irretrievable as a functioning human being, and/or (3) being used as consenting human shields.

I agree.

Please to note that we never went that far in Iraq or Afghanistan, other than the odd decimated “bridal party” which always seemed to be made up of 30 heavily-armed men celebrating at 3:00 in the morning with a couple of kids, maybe.

Jan 1, 2009 - 7:07 pm 69. Culturist John:

See my video on the NYC HAMAS demonstration. It concerns the existence of sides herein. The West should back Israel as Islamic nations back Palestinians.

Multiculturalists are wrong, we have a culture and a side in this conflict. Culturist know about the clash of civilizations and our Western identity.

http://culturismnews.blogspot.com/

Jan 1, 2009 - 7:18 pm 70. SPA:

I’m sure this is not a new idea, but is the Hamas provocation drawing Israeli forces into pitched battle in Gaza, simply a diversionary tactic ordered up by Iran to keep Israel busy at a time when Iran might expect a visit from the Israeli airforce? On W’s terms and before NoBomba takes over?

Jan 1, 2009 - 8:43 pm 71. elijah:

a visit from the Israeli airforce….

U.S. no longer responsible for iraq airspace above 24,000 ft

Jan 1, 2009 - 9:23 pm 72. Josh:

#63 NahnCee, because I think the current strategy is about as efficient and effective as killing cockroaches with a hammer. Maybe not even that good. Olmert/Livni just showing another side of their stupidity.

Jan 1, 2009 - 9:29 pm 73. ledger:

“Apparently the weather is predicted to be rainy the next couple days. Tanks + APCs + mud isn’t a good mix.” -UP

There could be other reasons such as Israel has not fixed all the soft spots on its tanks. Further, the Israelis might have information about deadly anti-tank weapons such as the type they ran into in Lebanon.

But, who knows?

[Ynet news]

“Fifty Israel Defense Forces tanks were damaged during the 34 day war in Lebanon, 30 soldiers and officers from the corps were killed and more than 100 were injured, including two battalion commanders. These are the statistics from the recent conflict.

“No budget, no smoke shield
Another depressing statistic: Twenty-two tanks sustained hits that penetrated their steal armor (in ten of the tanks, there were 23 fatalities; in the rest, severe damage was caused to the vehicle). Forty-four percents of the tanks hit by missiles had their armor penetrated. During the first Lebanon War, this happened to 47 percent of the tanks and in the Yom Kippur war, 60 percent. In the last two days of the war, in the battles in Wadi Sluki and Marjayoun, 14 tanks were hit. The IDF decided that five of the tanks could not restore five of these tanks, two of which had been damaged by underbelly explosives (one of them a Merkava-4) and three of which had been demolished by antitank missiles.

“In addition to cuts in the Armored Corps’ procurement budget (down from NIS 1 billion to some NIS 750 million – about USD 170 million), many of the tank systems ‘disappeared.’ For example, the mortar shells field. The launching barrel remained, but no shells were purchased. In addition, reserve soldiers called up to the war were astonished to discover that they are meant to enter Lebanon without a smoke shield in the tank. Shielding the area where the tank is stationed makes it possible to disguise it and prevent the enemy from firing on it. Due to the budgetary cuts, this option was prevented from the soldiers in the field.”

See: Ynet
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3297431,00.html

[Wikipedia Armored personnel carrier]

“Armour on APCs are usually composed of simple steel or aluminium, sufficient for protection against small arms fire and most shell fragments. Just about any type of anti-tank weapon can defeat the armour of an APC.

“The usual armament for an APC is a 12.7 (.50″) or 14.5 mm heavy machine gun. This is mounted on top of the vehicle, either on a simple pintle mount, sometimes with a gun shield, or a small turret. Sometimes an automatic grenade launcher is used instead.”

[Jpost]

“Not being suicidal. The willingness to be a martyr is highly touted by Hizbullah and some other groups. Yet in fact, while sometimes it has its use, it is not very good strategically.

“It is no accident that Gen. George Patton said the object of war was not to die for one’s country, but to make the SOB on the other side die for his. You do not want to sacrifice your most highly motivated, best-trained soldiers and their equipment if you can avoid it…”

Jan 1, 2009 - 11:42 pm 74. NahnCee:

Josh – I note that while having no hesitation to deem Olmert and Livni as being stupid, you also neglect to proffer any alternative tactics that you think would work better. Should we understand that you would prefer to see Israel sit quietly and continue to allow themselves to be kidnapped, suicide bombed, and rocket-attacked ad infinitum?

Jan 2, 2009 - 12:07 am 75. Doug:

Josh is a Lobbyist for Big Sewer Pipe, Inc.

Jan 2, 2009 - 6:04 am 76. Doug:

“Our Sewerpipe is Your Fallout Shelter!“

Jan 2, 2009 - 6:08 am 77. Doug:

Your Ace is Just a Social Construct.
– Mark Steyn

Jan 2, 2009 - 6:37 am 78. Triton'sPolarTiger:

Doug – loved that Steyn link, thanks!

Jan 2, 2009 - 7:54 am 79. Josh:

My first criticism of Olmert et al is that they should have reacted militarily over two years ago. My current criticisms are that the focus of their actions on inanimate objects, is foolish and ineffective. This is in keeping with the article’s subject we are commenting under.

Certainly the current military flailing is better than nothing, but only just barely.

Jan 2, 2009 - 10:38 am 80. NahnCee:

Gee, Josh, I could have sworn I’ve read multiple reports of Hamas deaths, including one just yesterday of the headless body of their top preacher flying out of his bombed building. I’ve also seen video’s of Hamas worker bees loading rockets into the back of a truck and being vaporized.

I’m not sure what you’re advocating for now. Agree that Lebanon was a disaster, then, but for now Israel seems to be doing a pretty good job to me, both with killing animate terrorists and with advertising the fact on YouTube.

What, exactly, do you think that Israel should be doing instead of targeting Hamas’s leadership and killing them?

Jan 2, 2009 - 12:18 pm 81. Lifeofthemind:

@Doug,
Thanks for the Steyn link.

Jan 2, 2009 - 12:33 pm 82. programmer:

What are “intense” diplomatic discussions? Do the participants sit and glare intensely at each other? Do they think intensely? Do they swear at each other intensely? Do they scribble intensely on on notepads? I keep read about preparing for “intense” diplomatic discussions, but I have no idea what that means. Or is it just a way for covering for a bunch of bureaucrats getting together for free meals and drinks?

Jan 2, 2009 - 12:50 pm 83. Lifeofthemind:

@programmer
Diplospeak lexicon

intense = no wine at lunch
full and free exchange of views = we disagreed
full and frank exchange of views = we called each other a**holes
frank bordering on direct = it degenerated into a punch up

Jan 2, 2009 - 1:16 pm 84. mouse:

In defense of Josh, who’s trying to think in terms of effective military strategy, and who’s getting a bum rap: If Israel, with it’s immense military might, in six days of bombing has only killed somewhere around 400 people, they’re not engaged in war, they’re just stomping their feet and saying: “I’m very very angry.”

There’s a reason Wretchard entitled his post: Bricks and Mortar, it’s because, other than for the first day, the Israelis have not been going after personnel or the leadership, they’ve been bombing buildings. Even in this last killing of Rayyan, apparently they warned him before hand that they were about to strike his apartment. They only killed him, incidentally, because instead of fleeing he surrounded himself with his family and dared the Israelis to engage in slaughter. This the Israelis did, killing his four wives and ten or eleven children. What world opprobrium does Israel face because of this? What struggles within their own conscience?

The point is, that in a state of committed war, if you don’t destroy the army, you don’t destroy the resistance. If Israel does nothing but blow up bricks, they’ve lost, just as fully as they lost in Lebanon. The huge problem they face is that Hezbolah comfortably is able to surround itself with wives and daughters and sons –children and noncombatants– as an armament against Israeli might. How do you deal with that? This isn’t going to change greatly even if there is a ground invasion.

The point Josh is making is that Israel hasn’t yet come to grips with this problem. If they fight to win they’re going to kill children. If they don’t kill children, they’ve lost, and every Arab everywhere will know that the Israeli warrior has the heart of a female.

This is not an easy situation. The optimistic scenario is this: At a certain point, after a few more slaughters like yesterday, there might be a breaking point, there might be a point where the kid says: “See ya Pop,” and at that point it will be a war within the Western tradition, and Israel will win.

Jan 2, 2009 - 1:26 pm 85. Tony:

The idea of using something like Phalanx, or more particularly this derivation of it called the C-RAM (Counter-Rocket Artillery Mortar System), at first sounds crazy. Why should we have to spend so much to defend against enemies like this, is one question, but the technical limitations are the serious problems.

According to this page (can someone please post an exploded view of an HTML link – I can’t figure out how to make them properly for BC in Vista/2007 – thanks Microsoft!):
http://www.navweaps.com/Weapons/WNUS_Phalanx.htm the effective range of the system is 1,490 meters.I can’t find info on how high the Qassams go, but I imagine with their 10 km range and a ballistic flight path, they might be able to fly right over the top of a firing Phalanx or C-RAM.

They why these things are called point-defense or see-whiz, Close-in Weapons Systems, they’re meant to defend a ship (or fort). Doesn’t sound like it would work, huh? Just like the ancient Greek phalanx, they could be defeated by throwing down on them from above via catapult, or in this case, flying over them.

Pity. Gaza is so tiny, only a little over 40km long, it would only take a string of 40 or 50 Phalanx to cover the entire border, but that would assume they can shoot high enough to hit the rockets. Of course, you’d need another wall of them facing Lebanon….

Ah well, defense is always a nice idea. The Airborne Laser concept would work (once the ABL itself works!), but it would be overkill for these murderous little bastards, its adoption as defense would assume there’s no better way to defeat these monsters.

Jan 2, 2009 - 2:01 pm 86. Peter Boston:

The only out for Israel in Gaza is to support a Gazan clan opposed to Hamas with unlimited money, armaments and transportation and let them take out Hamas.

I do not know if such a clan exists but if it does then I have to believe that the clan leaders will gladly accept the opportunity and the challenge to be princes of Gaza. In the long run they may not be any better than Hamas or Fatah but they cannot be any worse either.

Jan 2, 2009 - 2:03 pm 87. programmer:

LifeOfTheMind,

Priceless. Laughter drives back the dark, once again!!!

Jan 2, 2009 - 2:27 pm 88. tharkun:

@programmer; Lifeofthemind

re: What are “intense” diplomatic discussions?

“ARTHUR: If you will not show us the Grail, we shall take your castle by force!
GUARD: You don’t frighten us, English pig-dogs! Go and boil your bottoms, sons of a silly person. I blow my nose at you, so-called Arthur-king, you and all your silly English kaniggets. Thppppt!
GALAHAD: What a strange person.
ARTHUR: Now look here, my good man!
GUARD: I don’t want to talk to you no more, you empty headed animal food trough whopper! I fart in your general direction! Your mother was a hamster and your father smelt of elderberries.
GALAHAD: Is there someone else up there we could talk to?
GUARD: No, now go away or I shall taunt you a second time-a!”

The sad thing is, the Gaza/Israeli situation is becoming almost Pythonesque in its insanity.

Jan 2, 2009 - 2:29 pm 89. steveaz:

#49, lotm,
RE the “Hate Isreal” protests on the East Coast: Notice that Broward County Florida is on the pro-terrorism circuit?

Back in 2000, many of the so-called “protestors” looked distinctively Arab. And the tactics use to rouse the rabble were identical to those used by Arafat’s goons whenever a CNN camera flashed over the bombed out carcass of a Hamas car.

Could it be that the Daley machine is interoperable with Hamas’ American activists? If so, what is Obama’s connection to same?

Questions abound, and these are just two more I’d like answers to.

Jan 2, 2009 - 2:44 pm 90. Utopia Parkway:

@ledger,

Regarding war technology the Rafael Trophy system is supposed to have been adopted by the Israeli armor brigades over a year ago. I’m not certain what it looks like on the tanks but I think that the two antennas that you can see on the front corners of the tanks in recent photos are part of this system. Merkeva photos

This is some info on the system: Trophy

I don’t know for sure that it’s been installed on the Israeli tanks or other vehicles but I think so. It’s apparently expensive so will probably only be on the most expensive vehicles.

If the Israelis have it on all the tanks that go into Gaza, if they go, it could make a big difference in the battle. OTOH, it won’t protect from all perils. Hamas has reportedly buried large homemade mines in the roads in Gaza and within some radius the Trophy system probably is ineffective, which could be a factor inside urban areas.

Jan 2, 2009 - 4:18 pm 91. NahnCee:

mouse – I do believe you’re advocating “nuke ‘em and be done with it”, which would undoubtedly work very satisfactorily at taking out both Hamas and their bombs, but isn’t Israel a teensy bit close to have to put up with the radioactive fumes for the next foreseeble future?

Of course they could nuke Hamas and then leave Israel to Fatah, coming to the United States. I’d like to see what the Jews could do with Texas if we gave them half of it.

Jan 2, 2009 - 5:25 pm 92. Limpet6:

Let’s see the tanks are all lined up on the border.

Hammas communications and the Gaza infrastructure are kaput.

Where do you think ALL the Hamas antitank weapons crews are going (the ones that are still alive and have initiative)? They are going to go where they are in range of the sitting tanks. There’s no one able to reach them and tell them not move toward the tanks with their super-effective weapons, that it’s a trap.

Next step: Israel drops ordnance along a line roughly parallel with its bait tanks.

Jan 2, 2009 - 5:41 pm 93. PapaBear:

mouse: the true target of a military operation is the enemy’s willingness to fight.

Hamas is willing to lose a few people. But if the Gaza population is left without electricity, without supplies, without good water, for months at a time, people will grow weary. Killing people may cause rage, but making them miserable for week after week just causes misery. Eventually Hamas will wear out its welcome.

Jan 2, 2009 - 5:58 pm 94. Kinuachdrach:

Re intense diplomatic discussions –

Seems like the people with the real problem are Quinn The Mighty Eskimo and the Ice Maiden.

The expectation of the NYT set is that the inauguration of the Big 0 will set the world to rights immediately. There is going to be a lot of disappointment if he and Madame Hillary can’t patch something together very quickly thereafter.

But everyone knows that Hamas will never drop its “Death to Israel” clause, and that Hamas will promptly violate any cease-fire.

About the only possible solution would be to flood Gaza with French troops — and position a Russian detachment outside Paris to fire a random shot into the city every time Hamas fires a rocket into Israel.

Jan 2, 2009 - 6:25 pm 95. Bob:

I’d like to see what the Jews could do with Texas if we gave them half of it.

I’d like to see what the Jews could do with Los Angeles, if we gave them the whole thing.

Jan 2, 2009 - 7:03 pm 96. JFSanders:

Um, they pretty much own the best parts of LA now.

As for the Hill and Bill show. She is not as bright as people think she is. She gave up a Senate seat to work at the will and pleasure of a guy who does not like her. Evidently she isn’t aware that she can and most likely will be used as a scapegoat/fallgirl for one of the many “O” blunders to come.

Jim

Jan 2, 2009 - 7:08 pm 97. Bob:

What people can’t seem to understand about Bill and Hill is, they’re both criminals.

Jan 2, 2009 - 7:10 pm 98. programmer:

programmer slips into his flameproof suit and comments:

I would rather have Hillary as SecOfState than most any other Democrat. She AND Bill care about America. Heck, they figure it belongs to them. They are tough. They are resilient and absolutely determined to prevail in any scrap. As a practical matter, I generally feel that Hillary is more conservative than either President-Elect Obama or President-NonElect McCain. If anyone can get control of the State Department and focus it’s resources on the improvement of America’s position in the world, I believe it it is Hill. We do not need perfect people as politicians, we need strong, clever, resourceful, shrewd, street savvy, quick thinging and patriotic Americans. It usually balances out in the long run.

programmer quietly exits stage right, removes his flameproof suit and runs for cover….

Jan 2, 2009 - 8:20 pm 99. programmer:

Err…quick thinging = quick thinking, but actually if you are good at quick thinging, that may be really handy.

Jan 2, 2009 - 8:21 pm 100. slade:

RE the Bill and Hill show. Dick Morris in his book “Fleeced” describes the lucrative relationship between Bill and the princedom of Dubai. It’s worth of read. The thing about Bill Clinton – not sure about Hillary – is that he truly believes anything goes in the quest for power – to do “good works”. He’s really an end justifies the means kind of guy. That’s his moral ambiguity in my view but compared to what we saw in 2008 moral ambiguity is relative.

I’d like to see what the Jews could do with Texas if we gave them half of it.

They can have all of Montana. Have to kick Habu out first.

Jan 2, 2009 - 8:39 pm 101. Josh:

NahnCee, as mouse said, there is a huge spectrum of possible military actions between nothing and nuke’m. On a scale of one to a hundred, I’d say the current is about a two. It’s not enough, in fact, it may be counterproductive. I don’t think 100 is needed, probably not even 50, hopefully not even 20. But 2, just makes Israel look ridiculous.

But more than the scale of the violence and number of deaths, is the publicly announced strategy behind it. There is effectively nothing here but a simple-minded, “oh, stop hurting us!”

51% of the Gaza population voted for Hamas. That is the “target” that needs to be affected. A few hundred casualties won’t do it, nor the bombing of a few tunnels or mosques. That was all expected, and the people still effectively voted for it.

What I’m advocating is strategic thought on the part of Israel’s leaders. Before it is too late.

My preferred outcome? That the population of Gaza wake up, make peace with Israel, the borders can be completely opened, and both sides live happily ever after. But the Gazans do not seem to share this vision. Hence, problems.

Jan 2, 2009 - 8:48 pm 102. Bob:

What was that I heard about Bill selling state secrets to the Chinese for campaign cash? Was there anything to that?, cause I really don’t know.

I do know he should have served some time in jail for rape, or attempted rape.

But, he’s a jolly ol’ feller.

I saw him in Missoula, campaigning for Hill, as there he was, on the way out of town. All the college kids listened so intently!

This was the first campaign event I’ve ever been to, and it happened by happenstance.

He pointed his finger alot, I’ll always remember that, and kept screwing up and saying, “When I’m elected….” then he’d catch himself, “I mean Hillary”.

Jan 2, 2009 - 9:50 pm 103. Eggplant:

Jonathan Levy said the following:

“Your suggestion (”convey the impression that the Qassam rocket attacks have been nothing but inconsequental pin pricks”) would certainly be the way to go against Hamas. However, this is impossible for several reasons. The damage of the rockets must be stressed, not deprectaed, in order to:
1) Justify the attacks to the outside world.
2) Justify the Palestinian casualties for the Israeli audience.
3) Justify Israeli casualties (soldiers) for the Israeli audience.
4) Internal cohesion. Israelis (myself included) feel terribly guilty for living their lives calmly while their brothers in the south are under fire.”

Jonathan sums up the political situation nicely, i.e. it’s multidimensional. Israel’s problem with its Arab neighbors is much more complicated than America’s problem with Islamic fascism.

Immediately after 9/11, it seemed so obvious, i.e. locate the Islamic fascist enemy and promptly destroy them with minimal American losses. Unfortunately as we got deeper into the process we realized that we were actually fighting two enemies, i.e. the Islamic fascists and our own moonbats. Dealing with the Islamic fascists was actually easier because we only had to kill them. Unfortunately with moonbats, killing them wasn’t an option (they were often times neighbors, coworkers and family members). We had to reason with the moonbats and justify our actions while attempting to kill as many Islamic fascists as possible. This was a ridiculous situation. Despite our successes in Afghanistan and Iraq, the moonbats won in the end (Obama will soon be President). Again, Israel’s situation is much worse than what we have in the United States. We Americans might eventually lose a couple cities to the Islamic fascists but still survive as a nation. Israel does not have that option.

How does Israel manage this political balancing act and survive? I’ll be watching with considerable interest.

Jan 2, 2009 - 11:31 pm 104. rickl:

Eggplant:
Unfortunately with moonbats, killing them wasn’t an option (they were often times neighbors, coworkers and family members). We had to reason with the moonbats and justify our actions while attempting to kill as many Islamic fascists as possible. This was a ridiculous situation.

Alas.

Nevertheless, I have lately concluded that the Left represents the most immediate threat to my liberty, rather than the Islamists. Both will have to be defeated and destroyed one way or the other if Western civilization is to survive.

Jan 2, 2009 - 11:41 pm 105. NahnCee:

“Evidently she isn’t aware that she can and most likely will be used as a scapegoat/fallgirl for one of the many “O” blunders to come.”

I sort of like to think that between the two of them, Hill and Bill will figure out a way to (a) sell Obama down the river, and (b) get his skanky ass impeached (which are actually one and the same goal). We know Obama will be using Hillary as a scapegoat unless she hunkers down and starts doing the interminable flying and out-of-touch airplane routine Ms. Condoleeza has perfected in the past few years.

Remember, that Hillary *will* be talking to heads of state … overseas … where all those illegal donations came flooding in from … where B. Hussein has relatives … where he learned his socialist / marxist doctrinaire. Be stunning if she didn’t have this or that little birdy whispering in her ear if she could promise to make it worth said little birdy’s while.

Re: giving the Jews one of our states, I like Texas because I’m pretty sure they’d clear up our illegal alien problem toot sweet, once and for all. Besides, the thought of a rabbi in a huge belt buckle and cowboy boots tickles me.

Jan 3, 2009 - 12:33 am 106. Bob:

Exchange the Uzi for a Winchester.

“I’m here to stay.”

Jan 3, 2009 - 12:37 am 107. Dave:

Programmer sheds his flameproof suit.

Dave dons same.

Hilary will run State Department to suit her own interests. Sometimes those interests will coincide with ours. That is more than I can say for other Democrats (Richardson
possibly excepted.)

Interesting question is who willl Governor Patterson appoint to replace her. Putting Caroline Kennedy in keeps it a safe seat for Democrats. But Bill Clinton really wants the job so he can go campaign again.

Flameproof suit now offered to next contestant.

Jan 3, 2009 - 12:40 am 108. sfblue:

Israel has an historic opportunity due to global events and the nature of the Hamas movement that will not be wasted.

Aside from the lame duck timing of this operation, there are some global reasons that are causing the Palestinian apologists to fall on deaf ears worldwide: The election of Barak Obama was a worldwide phenomenon which has been pushed as a global end of outrage. We’re NOT SUPPOSED to be outraged in the wake of this historic event. We’ve paid for our vacation from outrage with eight years of dedicated collective anger at Bush, which finally paid off with the election of Obama. Halleluja. Also, the growing acceptance of US victory in Iraq has demonstrated that overwhelming military force can work against an intrenched, determined Arab enemy. The US has set an example for ignoring global cries of foul-play in the interest of victory.

There is something detached about the worldwide coverage of the situation in Gaza. Everyone in the world has a live feed of what’s going on, smartly led by the Israeli’s themselves. This gives Israel the first opportunity to frame the coverage as evidence of Hamas dangers being acted upon rather than ‘clandestine-like’ operations which are soon afterward exposed.

Hamas is in a catch-22 with the rockets. The option of stopping the rocket attacks is off the table for them due to their ‘we never stop’ stance. It would be seen as a humiliation to even pause the rocketing while Israeli attacks continue. Less options is not good strategically and Israel is taking great advantage of Hamas’ lack thereof. Hamas seems to have whipped itself up into overconfidence with the Hezbolla victory looming large in it’s collective memory.

Will the Israeli public be able to stomach war casuaties? I say yes. This is a window of military/political opportunity that Israel is not likely to see again soon.

Jan 3, 2009 - 12:53 am 109. sfblue:

What makes you so sure there aren’t plenty of Jews in Texas right now?

Jan 3, 2009 - 12:56 am 110. Bob:

The Gov will seat Princess You Know. Cause he wants the money she can raise.

God Almightly, Frankenstein, the Princess, The One….

You can buy your Sarah Palin 2009 Calendar Here to remind yourself what a human being is through the coming year.

Jan 3, 2009 - 1:00 am 111. Doug:

Ya know, Bob, that’s just what this country needs:
A Princess with, you know, a family you know, with a tradion of public, you know, service.
—
Hamas commander dies Video Reuters.com
PBUH
Condolences to WIO

Jan 3, 2009 - 5:16 am 112. 907ie:

Collateral damage, collateral damage, collateral damage.

Like it or not, it wins wars.

Jan 3, 2009 - 5:34 am 113. NahnCee:

I want the same Jews in Texas as who built the Wall between the Palestinians and Israel. Not fake video-camera-watching wall, but a big high mean-looking sucker that SCREAMS, “Stay out, you drab little unwanted troglodytes! We don’t want you here and if you try to come over me, Very Bad Things will happen to you. Guaranteed.”

Jan 3, 2009 - 12:08 pm 114. WSL:

@Bob(110): I am amazed that some still believe that Princess Caroline is a likely replacement for Hillary’s vacant Senate seat. She has demonstrated little interest in politics up until very recently, and her public statements are, or ought to be, an embarrassment to any who would promote her. Her interview on CBS last week so disqualified her that one would have to be blind to go ahead and appoint her to Hillary’s seat.

Jan 3, 2009 - 2:43 pm 115. Bob:

one would have to be blind to go ahead and appoint her to Hillary’s seat.

When was blindness ever a bar to a political appointment? She can deliver the trade routes, so to speak.

I’m bettin’ on Princess U no.

Jan 3, 2009 - 7:25 pm 116. NahnCee:

If they appoint Caroline instead of Bill, tht means that Bill will be free to wreak havoc elsewhere, very possibly against Obama.

Good.

Jan 3, 2009 - 7:32 pm 117. Lifeofthemind:

@Bob,
In point of fact Gov. Patterson, the man who is making the appointment, is legally blind.

Jan 3, 2009 - 8:34 pm

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