The NYT reports that 3 rockets have been fired into Israel from the North. This raises a number of questions: is Hezbollah opening, or threatening to open a second front? Has UNIFIL been effective in preventing the reoccupation of the border towns and Hezbollah’s rearmament? Is the real “answer” to the question ‘do you want a ceasefire’ both a verbal yes and an actual no?
JERUSALEM — Israel’s conflict with Hamas in Gaza threatened to broaden on Thursday as at least three rockets were fired into the north of Israel from Lebanon. The rockets, presumably launched in support of Hamas, could presage the opening of a second front. The Israeli Army, in a brief statement, said it “responded with fire against the source of the rockets,” which landed near the town of Nahariya. Two Israelis were slightly wounded, the police said.
Lebanese security sources told Reuters that they believed it was unlikely that the rockets were fired under instructions from the militant group Hezbollah. But there was no confirmation or denial from Hezbollah itself.
The rockets from Lebanon fell in residential areas. Shimon Koren, head of the northern district police, instructed residents of Nahariya and Kabri to enter bomb shelters and he instructed residents in nearby localities to open their shelters. School was cancelled in Nahariya and nearby Shlomi. The Israeli government said it welcomed the efforts of France and Egypt to work out a durable cease-fire. It said it would end its assault if Hamas stopped firing rockets into Israel and ended the smuggling of weapons from Egypt. It said that if a durable cease-fire took hold, it would reopen border crossings into Gaza for goods and people. But Israeli and Hamas officials both denied an assertion by the French president, Nicolas Sarkozy, that a cease-fire had been agreed upon.
In another example of how denials, however implausible, can trump facts, logic and common sense, Islamabad has fired the official who admitted that one of the Mumbai gunmen was a Pakistani citizen.
ISLAMABAD — The Pakistani government on Wednesday abruptly fired its national security adviser after he confirmed that the surviving gunman captured in the Mumbai attacks is a Pakistani, a key piece of evidence contained in a dossier amassed by India on alleged Pakistani complicity in the three-day assault. …
Retired Army Gen. Mehmood Ali Durrani’s confirmation of the surviving assailant’s nationality, the first by a senior Pakistani official, followed weeks of denials by Islamabad that any of the terrorists were Pakistani.
Durrani’s ouster suggests that a struggle is raging in the Pakistan government over responding to the Indian dossier and material gathered by the U.S. that blames the November attacks on a Pakistan -based Islamic militant group with ties to a Pakistani intelligence agency.
It is remarkable how rockets can fly out of Gaza or Southern Lebanon seemingly without anyone being responsible for them; or how attacks can be launched on a major Indian city by persons who are only temporarily Pakistani. But we live in an age of marvels.
The enemies of the West have discovered that the secret to avoiding accountability is to play along with the fantasies of its elites, who will believe anything for so long as it confirms their prejudices. If your faith in the Kool-Aid is strong enough, you won’t really taste the poison.
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39 Comments
1. ledger:Once talk of a cease fire starts the rockets start flying at Israel. Talk of “ceasefire” is no way to win a war.
Jan 8, 2009 - 2:09 am 2. SamIam:This deniability game has to be stopped cold with extreme prejudice and real, painfull consequences or it will of course encourage more, and worse things. Some might even feel safe enough to transfer certain kinds of weapons to certain parties if they get confident enough that repercussions are lim ited to bad words.
Jan 8, 2009 - 2:29 am 3. Manny C:Will Israel be able to pull off another 1967?
Jan 8, 2009 - 3:11 am 4. Manny C:This time of course it will be against “non-state” actors (if you define HAMAS as non-state)
Jan 8, 2009 - 3:13 am 5. wretchard:The buzz is that Hezbollah doesn’t intend anything serious, but is just rubbing it in, so to speak.
Jan 8, 2009 - 3:17 am 6. sfblue:Assuming a Gazan population that will elect Hamas as its leader given freedom, what is Israel’s end game? Does Israel ally itself with Fatah in hopes that Fatah can take over administration of Gazan civil society? That looks like the only option available. So how does Fatah get in there to take over without appearing to kowtow to Israel? The strategy must be to make life so miserable for Gazans that they will welcome Fatah and the benefits that Fatah will have to offer. But Israel must so weaken Hamas that it has no voice left. That is going to take a while, so I predict no ceasefire for the time being no matter how much diplomatic pressure is put to bear.
Jan 8, 2009 - 3:32 am 7. Brock:Twenty-fold.
Jan 8, 2009 - 6:11 am 8. elijah:Gen. Gadi Eisenkot, commander of the IDF Northern Command, has put forth the Dahiyah Doctrine since 2006. Eisenkot stated, “We will wield disproportionate power against every village from which shots are fired on Israel, and cause immense damage and destruction. From our perspective, these are military bases. This isn’t a suggestion. This is a plan that has already been authorized.”
Jan 8, 2009 - 7:40 am 9. Peter Boston:Tell Gen. Gadi Eisenkot that talk is cheap.
Jan 8, 2009 - 7:47 am 10. Cannoneer No. 4:Mumbai handlers in Pakistan cheer after ordering murders over phone
Six Pakistani handlers monitored the news coverage from Mumbai and kept in constant touch with the terrorists holed up in Nariman House and the Taj Mahal and Trident hotels during the three day siege. The handlers are identified as Zarar, Kafa, Wassi, Jundal, Bururg, and “Major General.”
A senior US military intelligence official familiar with the dossier said that the “Major General” is indeed Hamid Gul, the retired former chief of the ISI.
Jan 8, 2009 - 8:03 am 11. Gene44:Hamas was formed by money from Iran at first to support the Palestine people with hospitals and schooling to gain the trust of the people that they were different than the corrupt PLO. After gaining the trust of the Palestines they then started forming their army to overthrow the PLO security forces to take control of the Gaza Strip. They killed or threw out hundreds of PLO supporters and started firing rockets and mortars on a daily basis at Israel against Geneva Convention Article 51 of firing on civilians or firing from civilian areas. No agency condemned these actions or demanded that this stop. Then the Hamas groups kidnapped an Israel soldier and again refused for the Red Cross to visit him as contained in the Geneva Convention and at the same time the Red Cross critizes Israel for it’s actions of defending it’s citizens against the daily rocket attacks. Triple double standard form the liberals and just pass us more oil money please.
Pakistan has a chance of being taken over entirely by the Taliban as they control the Northwest with 100 km of the capital using terrorist attacks against the government forces, civilians and the government denying any responsibility to control them. Looks like a civil war coming soon. However, if they do break out in civil war then Obama will have to bomb the entire Northwest to help the government.
Jan 8, 2009 - 8:38 am 12. Michael Hoskins:Israel and I were born in the same year. I have figured it out. Israel has figured it out. The rest of the world refuses to see the obvious. The only question left is who will die first, Israel or me?
Jan 8, 2009 - 8:52 am 13. bob:Don’t take this wrong, Michael Hoskins, but let’s hope it’s you.
Jan 8, 2009 - 8:58 am 14. weSwinger:Hezbollah would be attempting a cheap shot while the IDF is preoccupied with their confederates in Gaza. It seems to me that the IDF has an Air Force that could be practicing preemption on the Lebanon side. It is frustrating to watch a civilized nation defend itself against howling, ululating barbarians and their tendentious supporters.
Jan 8, 2009 - 9:05 am 15. Michael Hoskins:Actually, Bob, I have the same wish. In fact, I have a far fetched dream that the rest of the world gets it, and at least starts to act, before I die. I would love to rest in peace.
Unfortunately, we require a sea change in Western Thought. What used to be called confidence has been renamed arrogance. (The difference between arrogance and confidence is competence). We have lost our confidence to guilt about our competence. Multiculturalism is a refusal to decide because we are afraid to be correct, making others wrong and proving our competence.
(I am trying to be brief, when the topic requires more space. I will stop now…I am at the office.)
Jan 8, 2009 - 9:14 am 16. John Bibb:This is just another front in an ongoing war. Israel needs to totally wipe out Gaza terrorists now. Hit Lebanon launch sites from the air or with rockets–100 to one return fire ratio.
Jan 8, 2009 - 9:17 am 17. Cavetroll:***
Realize that the source of these problems is in Iran–the enablers / supporters / mentors /suppliers of the HAMAS and HIZBOLLAH TERRORISTS. Launch the pre-emptive strike on Iran’s nuke facilities now–before Obama takes office. Win now–pay them back now for 30 years of terrorism.
***
Rocketman
I agree with the Dahiyah plan and Gen. Gadi Eisenkot. I think we may need to use similar tactics ourselves. If a group of people are so detemined to injure us that they will kill themselves and thier families to do so, and this group enjoys wide support from a civilian population ,then eventually you must either make it too expensive to attack us because of the price paid, or disrupt the supply of volunteers by eliminating them. If a suicide bomber is identified, there should be no one left in his immediate family to celebrate his martydom. Indeed the village, town, or city from which he operated should pay a high price for not preventing it.
Jan 8, 2009 - 9:18 am 18. what is occupation:Im sure a lot of you are gnashing your teeth at the very thought, let me ask you something, How many lives would you trade to save your Daughter, your Son, your Mother and Father, maybe Sister and Brother? No I don’t believe these tactics are for domestic use against our own people, they would fall under criminal and not military jurisdictions. Yes I am suggesting it for “those people”. You know, the ones that think it’s their religious duty to kill us. If I sound insensitive it’s because I am. I honsestly do believe this is a case of us or them and I prefer it be them. Them disproportionatly by the thousands, millions if need be.It’s time to end the crusades once and for all. Those that think there is room enough for tolerance in the world should be welcomed, those that think there should be no tolerance for freedoms such as religion or lifestyle and deem it neccesary to inflict harm or kill in order to impose controll over us, should be eliminated.
i have long argued that the 2006 war was not the loss that many in the press and (even in israel) claim it was…
I have long argued the 2006 BATTLE was a simple pavlovian exercise in conditioned response…
the concept of fear needed to be re-instilled into the arab/islamic world…
for all to long they have expected that Israel would have to “take it”
from border invasion, to low intensity warfare, the world has demanded that Israel not response with extreme prejudice…
Truth be told, Israel in 2006 actually exacted a price without killing 15,000 civilians…
israel still calls (via text message and radio) it’s civilian enemy populations to flee from areas that are about to be hit… ( it actually still calls hamas leaders homes to leave as well)
Israel in 2006 left a message…
we are not the butchers you are, however we will make your living areas rubble…
the islamic world does not fear mass deaths, they get from each other for hundreds of years (notice the suicide bombers in iraq, killing 40-100 a bombing with nary a reaction from anyone)
Hezbollah lost something much more than the 500 fighters in 2006 it lost 1-1.5 BILLION dollars worth of investment…
MONEY, Shelter & zones….
For all the teeshirts and parades and blustery speeches that nasrallah gives you will notice that Gaza has been (and continues to be) beaten into the ground and really nothing at all is coming from lebanon…
conditioned response…..
you f*ck with israel? we will destroy your cities and cost you your cash…
Hamas is learning an old lesson that was forgotten during the last 10 years…
it aint eye for an eye…
it’s you ATTEMPT to kill us, we will response with extreme prejudice…
Hezbollah leaders live in fear and hide…
Hamas HIDES…
I would assume that Hamas will declare victory soon and have parades that state we “are still here” so we won!
they will have new tee shirts!
and of course iran and others (the europeans & UN) will rebuild much of the destroyed buildings but dont let that fool you…
Israel unleashing it’s quite accurate military might on Hamas will re-educate Hamas to what PUNISHMENT is all about…
I have no doubt that the media, the UN and the world willscold Israel, Durban II will be an Israel bash fest…
but in the end as I always tell people who support Hamas, Iran and Hezboolah….
I dont care if you like me, I dont care if you even hate me, I dont care if you call me sons of pigs and dogs and even boycott me…
I only care that you FEAR me….
Jan 8, 2009 - 9:51 am 19. Lifeofthemind:There are those who are tolerant of individuality and have the confidence in their own culture that allows them to feel unthreatened by eccentricity. Those are the people called conservatives. Then there are those who are tolerant of intolerance but who feel threatened by any peculiarity of opinion and who so distrust or despise their own people as to champion the other even if it threatens the community and its values. They are called progressives.
The wires between Iran and Lebanon or between Russia and Iraq or between Turkey and Israel all run through Syria. Israel should respond to a threat from the North with a single massive blow at the Assad regime in Damascus and the Alawite homeland. That and a targeted disruption of Iran’s refined energy importation facilities would cripple the mullah’s plans and might collapse their regime.
Jan 8, 2009 - 9:57 am 20. steveaz:Wretchard:
I interned at an international freight forwarding firm during my college years. Here I encountered what my boss termed the “Japanese No.”
Many importers, usually Asian, will say “Yes” to a salesman pitching new air freight rates or an improved shipping service, say, from Kobe to Seattle – leaving the young impressionable salesman with the impression that he’s closed a new deal.
But, they really meant “No.” Many a bottle of champagne has been uncorked before the delivered “Yes” has been translated into hard English.
Funny thing that.
Jan 8, 2009 - 10:00 am 21. noprisoners:Wretchard,
With all due respect, forget UNIFIL. They have done nothing of value and they will do nothing of value.
I had an interesting discussion with a client a few days ago. He is from Pakistan and is Muslim. He said that he believes that the Hamas flare up was caused by orders from Hamas sponsors who pump oil. This is, in his opinion, designed to raise the price of oil. Further, he said that if the Gaza uprising did not have the desired effect, he predicted that Hezbollah would start something on Israel’s northern border. Could he be right?
Jan 8, 2009 - 10:01 am 22. Michael Hoskins:LofM. Eccentricity is a cultural positve. Eccentrics are confident in their view and provide exploration into alternives. When several eccentrics get together and agree (sort of) we have a movement; that may lead to redirection of the society. It is a slow process, but avoids the baby-bathwater thing.
And, of course, eccentrics are very entertaining. Upon release from the constraints of making a living, I aspire to full on looniness.
Jan 8, 2009 - 10:19 am 23. What used to be called confidence has been renamed arrogance « Civilian Irregular Information Defense Group:[...] What used to be called confidence has been renamed arrogance Published 2009/01/08 Idea War Unfortunately, we require a sea change in Western Thought. What used to be called confidence has been renamed arrogance. (The difference between arrogance and confidence is competence). We have lost our confidence to guilt about our competence. Multiculturalism is a refusal to decide because we are afraid to be correct, making others wrong and proving our competence. — Michael Hoskins [...]
Jan 8, 2009 - 10:41 am 24. nobozons:I agree UNIFIL needs to account for itself. But it won’t. I was hoping that Hezbollah had learned its lesson or that the rockets were from one of the Hamas groups in Lebanon. Will have to wait and see. As a minimimum UNIFIL should be able to say who sent the rockets.
Jan 8, 2009 - 10:57 am 25. Peter Boston:what is occupation
The tenor of your post used to be the Israeli spirit but I’m not sure that it still applies to the current generation.
The attack on Hamas is righteous. You cannot kill too many Hamas men nor too often but I suspect that the timing and scope of this round is more to improve Olmert’s party’s chances in the upcoming elections than anything else.
If true the timing of the Israeli action begs a question about the Obama administration. Does Israeli intelligence know something that we do not know about Obama’s intentions in the ME?
Jan 8, 2009 - 11:12 am 26. RWE:Let me repeat my post from the other related item:
Here is an idea:
If “someone else” is supposed to enforce a cease fire in Gaza then it should be made in their best interests to do so, rather than them making an empty feel-good gesture.
So the “someone else” should have bombs embedded in their capital city, and every time a rocket from Gaza hits Israel, the Israelis can push a button and set off one of the bombs in the Someone Else city.
As I observed some time back, our military forces in Iraq and Afghanistan have no shortage of Audie Murpheys, Alvin Yorks, Dick Bongs, and Butch O’Hares, but the same is not true of the political leadership. And as Wretchard observed in response, that is because the political leadership does not suffer the consequences of their actions but the military does. The same is true of the “peacekeepers.”
And put a few of those bombs in U.N. HQ, too.
Jan 8, 2009 - 11:16 am 27. ag:Re (18): “Hezbollah lost something much more than the 500 fighters in 2006 it lost 1-1.5 BILLION dollars worth of investment…
MONEY, Shelter & zones….” At what cost?
Jan 8, 2009 - 11:22 am 28. veracious:Michael,
I’ve stashed your line “The difference between arrogance and confidence is competence.” Wow, short but pure.
Sums up what I think is wrong with much that good Americans are doing anymore. We’re so confident of our civiliation that we feel ourselves immune to the massive train wreck_s_ bearing down upon on. The monied interests and the anti-Americans have gained so much ground in wealth, lawfare and double speak; yet we still think things are pretty much the way they were, internationally and _intra_nationally. Our great virtues are being offset by weaseldom, arrogance and new aristocratic _kings_ – without any clothes; the crowds are none the wiser.
Until I see more than a few at BC and elsewhere, able to understand the tom-foolery all around us, I see no way to avoid that wreck. The average American is _not_ what he used to be, apparently unable to think outside of the paradigms painted by the MSM and the universities filled with naked arrogance against _truth_ learned by our forefathers.
Jan 8, 2009 - 11:51 am 29. veracious:Wretchard,
“The enemies of the West have discovered that the secret to avoiding accountability is to play along with the fantasies of its elites, who will believe anything for so long as it confirms their prejudices” ; we’ve come far enough from our home to imagine insanity as mere _prejudices_.
Where one man recognizes lies and deceit, those in the asylum find new ways of seeing things. Maybe when enough carefully polished lies are published/taught, we’ll all be granted access to the their asylum and the bright future therein.
Jan 8, 2009 - 12:04 pm 30. Michael Hoskins:Veracious. Thnx, but. I meant just the opposite. We (western thought) have been made so ashamed of our competence; so extensive and so pervasive that our lead on the third world is massive, that it must be our fault; thus we are now arrogant, a deadly sin.
We are NOT confident in our civilization, else multiculturalism?
We must renew our faith in our core competencies, Freedom of Thought and Expression, Freedom to Excell (or be eccentric) Freedom to Fail and an ultimate trust in our own skills et al. We must stop second guessing ourselves.
I’ll give you a more concrete example. Over the years the left has repeatedly scolded us for “forcing” our system of government on others. Not true. Name the nations that have a bicameral representative democracy? Not many. Lots of parlimentary forms, the EU model, which outside of a monolithic ethnic culture, sucks.
The Angloshere owes no appoligies. We do need to get our heads out of our nether regions and get back to leading the pack.
Jan 8, 2009 - 12:19 pm 31. markb:18. what is occupation:
Hezbollah lost something much more than the 500 fighters in 2006 it lost 1-1.5 BILLION dollars worth of investment…
MONEY, Shelter & zones….
———————————————————————————-
Israel had a little help from Warren Zevon (and maybe Hank,Jr)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xp1CGNobEL4#
Lawyers, Guns and Money
beats
Shelters,zones & Money
every time.
Jan 8, 2009 - 12:32 pm 32. Ken:Since the Red Cross has time on its hands and is in Gaza anyway, maybe they’ll try to visit the israeli soldier who was kidnapped and has been held for more than two years without any access to the red Cross. Oh wait, he’s Jewish so the Red Cross doesn’t give a damn.
Jan 8, 2009 - 2:02 pm 33. steveaz:I agree completely with your point, Michael.
As the competent yield the field to the guilty, our society spirals ever downward. The once-functional competitive meritocracy is yielded to non-competitive, credentialist meritocracies wherein a person or a group is “better” because he or it has a credential that says so.
The gaining of pieces of paper like Pulitzer Prizes, Hollywood’s Emmy Awards and advanced post-modern degrees (ie. Masters of Political Science Degrees) take primacy over material achievements, like raising a large, successful family, or inventing a successful for-profit company.
Unless we turn this around soon, we’ll be just another factional mediocracy, easily ruled by an elite eager to pit factions against eachother, just like a disjointed tribal Pakistan, with a cadre of hyper-wealthy Rhodes-Scholars at the helm.
The immortal “Race” issue, “Gobal Warming,” and the contrived “Gay Marriage” issue, all of which are only kept alive by urban elites, are just three examples where, in the absence of constant, paid agitation, domestic peace and tranquility would rein.
But that’s not what the progressive movement wants, is it?
Jan 8, 2009 - 2:03 pm 34. Old Chief:It takes more courage then many have to say ‘No’ and mean exactly that. In many parts of Africa ‘No problem’ is the polite (cowardly) way of saying ‘no.’ Non-africans tend to hear ‘yes’ when told ‘no problem,’ but consider the ambiguity of that phrase.
When I lived in southern Greece I had to learn that ‘I’ll do that tomorrow’ meant ‘maybe’ and ‘I’ll do that the day after tomorrow; meant ‘no.’
Life in a culture where folks can say ‘no’ and mean just that is very refreshing. And rare.
Jan 8, 2009 - 2:27 pm 35. Rockets Fired At Israel From Lebanon » The Ethereal Voice:[...] were fired at Israel from Lebanon. From Belmont Club…. The NYT reports that 3 rockets have been fired into Israel from the North. This raises a number of [...]
Jan 8, 2009 - 3:26 pm 36. rickl:Old Chief:
It takes more courage then many have to say ‘No’ and mean exactly that. In many parts of Africa ‘No problem’ is the polite (cowardly) way of saying ‘no.’ Non-africans tend to hear ‘yes’ when told ‘no problem,’ but consider the ambiguity of that phrase.
That’s interesting. If a customer asks something of me and I reply, “no problem”, I mean there’s no problem; I’ll do it. If there were a problem, I would say so and explain why.
Jan 8, 2009 - 5:52 pm 37. Bob Murphy:.19 Lifeofthemind
16. John Bibb:
“Realize that the source of these problems is in Iran–the enablers / supporters / mentors /suppliers of the HAMAS and HIZBOLLAH TERRORISTS. Launch the pre-emptive strike on Iran’s nuke facilities now–before Obama takes office. Win now–pay them back now for 30 years of terrorism.”
Or be a bit more subtle and take out Iran’s one serious domestic refinery, with plausible deniability, of course.
Iran’s economy is dire and they are spending money like a drunken sailor on terrorism abroad.
A bit more pressure at home and…
Jan 8, 2009 - 7:23 pm 38. Gary Rosen:what is occupation:
“i have long argued that the 2006 war was not the loss that many in the press and (even in israel) claim it was…”
I heard that Hezbollah actually *denied* the rocket attacks. If so, that is support for your view – apparently they don’t have the “heart and courage” to get involved now.
Jan 9, 2009 - 12:18 am 39. David M:The Thunder Run has linked to this post in the – Web Reconnaissance for 01/09/2009 A short recon of what’s out there that might draw your attention, updated throughout the day…so check back often.
Jan 9, 2009 - 10:24 amSorry, comments for this entry are closed at this time.