105 Comments

1. NahnCee:

I was born and raised in Oregon, which is where Crater Lake is, the result of the eruption of Mt Mazama 7,000 years ago. As you drive around the Pacific Northwest, you will drive over hundreds and hundreds of miles of age-old lava beds which are the result of this eruption.

You can still go to places and pick pumice off the ground and climb little mountains of shiny black obsidian like the Indians used to make arrows with. And you look around this millenial detritus and it’s really REALLY far away from any volcanoes, old or new, so it had to be blasted through the sky at some point to fall to the ground at these places.

When people were racing up to Washington state to watch Mt. St. Helens erupt, I was saying, “are you CRAZY?!? Do you know how far a really good volcano can throw stuff???” In my opinion, they all should have been running AWAY from Mt. St. Helens, rather than towards it. I certainly gave it a year or three to calm down before I drove up to look at it.

RE Yellowstone, I saw one article which predicted (and I have no idea with what sort of expertise) that if Yellowstone blows up, its effects could reach a 600 mile radius. I was delighted to see that Southern California is outside of that radius, because I think dealing with the results of one volcanic eruption per lifetime is quite sufficient, thank you very much.

Jan 10, 2009 - 7:50 pm 2. Will48:

I saw several popular science TV shows predicting that if Yellowstone blows, entire continent would be devastated and the whole world affected, mainly by its ashes causing severe disruptions to every aspect of life.

But there are other major threats as well. There is a volcanic island off the African coast that is on the verge of splitting in two. If it does split on the next eruption (which is due any moment now, or in next 20 years or so) the resulting massive landslide will produce a gigantic tsunami headed for the East coast, which could reach as high as 1000 ft at the landfall.

Jan 10, 2009 - 8:06 pm 3. Gordon:

As I recall, the need to monitor Yellowstone Lake was realized when someone happened to notice that the two ends of the lake had changed their shorelines, ie one end was shallower and the other deeper.

This could only happen by one end rising, causing that end to be shallower. Subsequent measurements proved this to be the case.

Jan 10, 2009 - 8:48 pm 4. Cris:

Guess I’d better buy a really good umbrella.

Jan 10, 2009 - 8:56 pm 5. Batman:

Well, a good eruption would certainly take care of Global Warming for quite a while. And it could accelerate the actual cooling trend. I’d love to see Gore if and when Yellowstone blows.

Jan 10, 2009 - 9:13 pm 6. Bohica:

(Groan) See what you started Wretchard…

Jan 10, 2009 - 9:25 pm 7. jim in virginia:

Obviously if Yellowstone blows it is BushCheneyHalliburton’s fault.
Seriously, like global climate change, we have so litte data that we don’t know what this means.

Jan 10, 2009 - 9:33 pm 8. Brock:

I like living near the Appalachian Mountains. They’ve never tried to blow up my State. We also get no earthquakes or tornadoes, too much rain for forest fires, and hurricanes are pretty spent once they blow past North Carolina. All in all, I only need to be worried about asteroids.

I might even be okay if Le Palma (the island in the Canary Islands Will48 is referring to) collapsed. I live on a hill.

Jan 10, 2009 - 9:39 pm 9. littletim:

No supervolcano this week. The Yellowstone swarm is dying out. The number of quakes has declined significantly, and there have been none in the last 24 hours. Here’s the latest map of quakes:

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsus/Maps/US2/43.45.-111.-109.php

One of the prior posters commented about the effect of past erruptions on the Oregon landscape. I have not been to Oregon, but I imagine it’s a bit like the geography around Mt. Shasta in far Northern California. If one looks closely while driving past Mt. Shasta on Highway 5, evidence of powerful erruptions abound for tens of miles. The Long Valley caldera on the east side the Sierra Mountains in California is also a fascinating place to visit. Like Yellowstone, it’s a sleeping supervolcano. As one would expect with a supervolcano, interesting geologic features abound, but it lacks the spectacular natural wonders of Yellowstone. As I recall, there was some concern 10 or 15 years ago when a notable rise in the ground level of the Long Valley calera was detected. Fortunately, that concern has faded away — for now.

Jan 10, 2009 - 10:01 pm 10. Mike M:

If this thing blows, being outside the blast radius means you likely die of starvation or the chaos that follows. the last one to pop off cause a mass extinction event.

Jan 10, 2009 - 10:04 pm 11. bob:

I was delighted to see that Southern California is outside of that radius

I’m not so delighted that I’m in the kill zone, but, I’ve got a Farmers Umbrella Policy. If that don’t work, I’ll go out like Harry Truman.

I was fishing downwind from St. Helens when she blew, it was a hellacious black cloud. What the hell is that, we asked. Pretty soon the ash started falling out of the sky, and we headed south. We were about 200 miles away.

My wife was pregnant at the time. You can quess what my daughter’s name is.

Remember Vesuvius, and imagine that for about half the country, if it really blows.

Basically, a full scale eruption would wipe out the bread basket, the country would never be the same.

Mohammad would say it’s allah’s will. Others might say Mother Gaia.

Sounds like a glorious way to, when you think about it.

Jan 10, 2009 - 10:08 pm 12. bob:

way to go

Jan 10, 2009 - 10:09 pm 13. Asher Abrams:

Actually seismic activity peaked about a week ago. I posted on it here.

I’ve been posting on the Yellowstone story at Rosebridge blog and from the search hits I’m getting it looks like one of those things where the story will get a lot of attention when it looks sensational, and then people will stop listening before they find out there’s not really much going on.

(Discovery: You can put “PLEASE READ THIS IMPORTANT UPDATE” at the top of a post, but if people don’t want to click the link, they won’t.)

Jan 10, 2009 - 10:22 pm 14. Sara (Pal2Pal):

NahnCee: At the time Mt. St. Helens blew, I lived in San Diego. It was just a couple of days after the blast that our car in the driveway was completely coated with a fine dust-like ash.

Re: Yellowstone. They are starting to worry because by all accounting the super volcano is over due on its historical timeline. When Yellowstone goes off, I doubt many of us will be around afterward to talk about it. The devastation will be massive and cover most of the U.S., not to mention what will happen to the atmosphere and the blocking out of sunlight for years.

Jan 10, 2009 - 10:42 pm 15. Charles:

I had to take off my shoes,belt watch, empty my pockets, pull my computer out of its case and place it in an extra bin and then pass through a metal detector.

So what’s my opinion?

Mohammed’s mind is a perfect example of what happens to a man when he worships a meteorite.

The quakes at Yelllowstone were tightly centered in yellowstone lake. if this is a precurser to a volcano xxx years out the tight centering of the quakes suggests that the likelihood is that its a small one like the last small one there 60,000 years ago.

Jan 10, 2009 - 10:45 pm 16. Lifeofthemind:

This will be Biblical. Just remember that Global Cooling causes or masks Global Warming. Going from the sacred to the profane, this has policy implications. BHO partly rode in on the meme that the Republicans were incompetent hacks because they allowed a hurricane to flood New Orleans and did not foresee the overwhelming felonious incompetence of the Democratic Governor and Mayor. Expect therefore another $50 Billion, to pull a number out of my south forty, for Super Volcano relief studies and infrastructure projects.

Soon every governor will discover the dormant fault lines within their jurisdictions. The New Madrid fault covers the area where Illinois, Missouri and Kentucky meet. New York has cracks especially in the West but the Palisades along the Hudson are remnants of an ancient rift. The threat is possibly real but the response by politicians will be shameful.

For one thing a basic principle of insurance should be that you can spread the exposure to a risk but not to a certainty. If everyone faces the same risks then the best you can hope for is economies of scale in preparing for it. Unfortunately the inefficiency of government means that many market based expenditures will probably do better than centralized mass expenditures. That is exactly what the Democrats do not believe.

Jan 10, 2009 - 10:46 pm 17. Sara (Pal2Pal):

When Super Volcano Santorini exploded it was seen and heard hundreds of miles away and, so they say, the tidal wave parted the Reed (Red) Sea for Moses and the gang.

All we can do is pray that we’ll have enough advance warning of a year or more to get our food storage in order and make ourselves as self-sufficient as possible ‘cuz there sure aren’t going to be too many services or much food around after the fact.

Jan 10, 2009 - 10:54 pm 18. Lifeofthemind:

Mo is probably dancing around a rock right now praying for an eruption.

In 1944 my Father had a machine gun nest on Mt Vesuvius. Exactly what he was guarding the mountain against was a little unclear. I saw a video once of the eruption, thought I could see a small figure running down the mountain as she blew, I am very impressed that I am here.

Jan 10, 2009 - 10:55 pm 19. wretchard:

Personally I don’t have any idea what the probabilities of an Yellowstone eruption would be. It may happen tomorrow. On the other hand, it may not happen for another million years. But there are lots of events potentially as catastrophic as a supervolcano eruption. A city-sized rock from space. Look at the moon and what hit it; without the weathering the craters are still there.

So, given the existence of not one, but many nearly extinction-level events, why don’t we apply the “precautionary principle” which often used as an argument for global warming? Maybe because global warming is better racket, but not because it is any more immediate or certain than a super-catastrophe.

While we can guard against specific threats against asteroids, weather change, volcanoes, nuclear war, etc maybe the best overall insurance against extinction is space colonization technology. Diversification. I think the most dangerous idea ever put forward is the idea that outer space is some kind of ecological theme park that ought to be kept free from human pollution.

If our only defense against the dangers of nature is science and technology, then it follows that the greatest long term danger to human existence is political correctness.

Jan 10, 2009 - 11:08 pm 20. Alexis:

wretchard:

Although millions of Americans would be toast after a Yellowstone eruption, we ought to consider what would be necessary to survive such a catastrophe. Remember, life goes on, volcano or no volcano.

I immediately start with the basics. Find some place indoors, preferably with the air with a higher pressure indoors than outdoors and perhaps with a good air filtration unit. Get out a handkerchief or scarf, soak it in water, and cover your mouth. It might not be the best defense against ash, but it’s better than standing outside. Or “duck and cover”.

I also think about importing foodstuffs from the southern hemisphere. The possibility of setting up subterranean farms should be considered. American cuisine may start using a lot of mushrooms.

Can this catastrophe be survived? Yes. It won’t be easy, though.

Also, as much as I favor geothermal energy in general, I do think there ought to be a total moratorium on geothermal drilling on the Yellowstone Supervolcano. The whole idea of drilling into that volcano for energy and then KABOOM and Midwestern agriculture would get sterilized while millions of people die, well, that would be a real bummer. I wouldn’t want to get blamed for something like that! “Sorry about that, chief!” wouldn’t be good enough for the angry survivors.

Jan 10, 2009 - 11:38 pm 21. bob:

Well let’s look on the bright side. Even if a supervolvano goes off, and we’re hit at the same time by a city size rock, the odds are a few will/could survive, somewhere. We definitely should have both sexes on our nuclear submarines, for instance. If we don’t already. Folks of the very finest physique and mental ability.

We’ve been through these bottlenecks before.

Think of it as the dawning of a brand new tomorrow.

*Great comment about worshipping a meteorite, Charles:)

Jan 10, 2009 - 11:39 pm 22. bob:

Long Valley Was A Biggie

as was

Island Park

Jan 10, 2009 - 11:51 pm 23. Lifeofthemind:

Subterranean mushroom farms? Fortunately there is a survival plan ready to use.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=59YKlP–PhU

Jan 11, 2009 - 12:06 am 24. NahnCee:

Isaac Asimov wrote a short story titled “Nightfall”, where he explored the panic of a civilization with two suns that simultaneously went into eclipse.

That primordial fear / panic is what I felt when the ash from Mt. St. Helen blotted out the daylight in the days after the eruption.

Actually, there’s something primordial and fearful about Yellowstone itself, walking among the burbling hot springs, the constant smell of sulfur in the air, the yellow and orange and red streaks in the earth — not to mention the explosive mini-eruptions of the geysers.

Jan 11, 2009 - 12:13 am 25. Brock:

Wretchard, you are right of course that the best way for the species to survive is for some of its members to move out into space. But space has dangers too, and I’m more curious as to where -I- should go to survive.

If humans can thrive in low-g environments, I’m thinking that burrowed deep within the Moon, Ceres or Mars would be a good choice. No volcanic activity and lots of shielding. But if we need 1g to procreate and grow we’re stuck with Earth and rotating space stations. And between the two of them, how resilient is a man made structure compared to the Earth?

Jan 11, 2009 - 12:57 am 26. bob:

Jacque Cousteau claimed that we wouldn’t make any more evolutionary progress until we went back to the oceans, like the whales, and the dolphins. But then, he liked to scuba dive. We might give it a thought though, we’d at least be immune to the effects of tidal waves from space rocks.

Jan 11, 2009 - 1:18 am 27. bob:

Yup, as an added measure of securtiy, we should definitely have a ratio of five, maybe ten to one, female to male, on those subs, a healthy strangelovian ratio. Mohammed would doubtless approve of this.

Jan 11, 2009 - 1:38 am 28. Warsong:

17. Sara (Pal2Pal):

In the early 1960’s while operating a Sewer Plant for the City of Pasadena (and, working on some Degrees), I walked out on my round, about 1 AM, and, climbed a Tank with 3X3 foot external Concrete Beams across the Concrete Top (in a Tic-Tac-Toe pattern). Just as I stepped out onto one of the Beams, I lost my balance and arms flailing, jumped down onto the Concrete Top, and just as quickly jumped back up on the Beam, as my Eyes locked onto the Champion Paper Co’s Water Filtration Tanks across Simm’s Bayou.

Just as suddenly, I experienced a second wave of balance problems, and, fell backwards off the Beam, as the Water in Champions Filtration Ponds rose up in a Tidal Wave over the Far End of the Tanks, smashed out two Windows and both Front and Back doors of the Control Building.

As I landed on the Top of the Tank for a second Time, I watched the Water rush back down the Tanks, smash over the Near End of the Filtration Tanks, and, experienced a third episode of lost balance while standing on the solid Top of the Tank. As the Water cycled two more time in the tanks across the Bayou, I jumped back onto the Beam, rushed down the Ladder and took off for the office, intending to report an Earthquake.

But, just as I slid into the office, a Radio Announcer broke on our Boombox with a public service bulletin: “Three Ground Waves from the Alaskan Earthquake just passed through the Houston Area, and, there will probably be minor damage due to their size and intensity…”

More than likely, huge Ground Waves from the explosion of the Volcano Thera on the Island of Santorini were the cause of the “Parting of the Waters” experienced by Moses and the refugees from Egypt. In the book, “Unearthing Atlantis,” George Plimptom said the Gound Waves circled the Earth at least 3 Times, as did the second loudest Sound ever heard, the clap of sound reported by Critias the Younger, on that morning in 729 BC, when Thera exploded.

The Villa of Critias the Younger was 900 feet up a mountain behind a small Greek Port where his Mother was shopping. The Tidal Wave that came roaring across the Agean climbed all the way to the foot of his Veranda steps, then rushed back out to sea with the small Port, and, his Mother. There was nothing left of the Port, not even a mark it ever existed.

Volcano’s, like Global Warming (that doesn’t exist), are forces of Nature beyond the control of Man, and, we’re just passengers along for the ride. As a Weatherman said, a couple of days ago while reporting on the violent winter Europe is experiencing, “Thank God for Global Warming.”

Jan 11, 2009 - 2:34 am 29. outa my league:

Over the last hunnerd years, think of the trillions of barrels of crude oil earth folks have consumed.

Giving a little leeway to deep hot biosphere theory, what percentage of caldera (one might dub it Yellow Calc) of energy has been benignly tapped and released during the span?

Now, thought experiment rewinding 100 years and bannish drilling for oil anywhere on d’planet.

Would Mt.St.H have burped sooner, later, or on the same date?

(If this Nerd Conjecture seems foolish, just imagine that all those trillions of barrels of pete came from dead dinosaurs.)

Jan 11, 2009 - 2:56 am 30. DougS:

[19] Wretchard, the difference between pondering a super volcano and global warming is simply this: Obviously, there is not much you can do about the former except (as others have pointed out here) some desperate efforts at mitigating the consequences, but global warming is touted as something that can be made right if only everyone would behave according to the dictates of those whipping up the hysteria over it. The former is sublime in prospect and truly an act of God; the latter is the product of those who would make themselves God.

Jan 11, 2009 - 4:18 am 31. Bonzo:

Survival food: Gertrude the duck?

Jan 11, 2009 - 6:36 am 32. I'm Just Plain Dumb:

Off topic, Wretchard, but worth a read: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2009/01/10/nyt-bush-protested-israeli-planned-strike-iran/

Jan 11, 2009 - 7:16 am 33. RWE:

In 1989 I went to SC to repair my Mom’s house and clean up after Hurricane Hugo. We had no electric power for a week. The following month I was in a meeting at Stanford Research Institute when that big quake hit the SF bay area. So they held two major national disasters that year and I got to attend both. When I lived in Oklahoma a tornado did a low altitude demonstration fly-by of our apartment building, which was quite close enough enough, thank you. Then there are the topical systems hitting Florida. In September we had about 34 inches in rain over a period of 3days, and that was not a really bad year as things go. By the way, I do not recommend traveling with me.

As for that volcano in the Cape Verde Islands, I understand that the real problem is that it is filling up with water and will cause it to split one day if it erupts. If we drill so to drain the water that problem might be solved.

I find that one of the most interesting discoveries of late is that Mars was on its way to becoming a habitable planet until it got whacked by an asteroid. Now, just think about that. We would have had two habitable planets in just this solar system. It is intriguing to consider the impact on human history if Mars had been found to be in move-in condition circa 1900. This information also tends to indicate that giant meteor impacts are something to worry about and that manned space exploration may be far more profitable than we have thought.

But the big lesson learned from all of this is that the way forward is toward greater competency and more robust capabilities, not less. Most of the philosophies competing with good old-fashioned Americanism effectively argue the reverse. Islam, the Green movement, Socialism, Feminism, the Peace movement, Union advocates, in fact, just about every “alternative” philosophy, ultimately push the belief that knowledge is bad and new capabilities are too dangerous. Aircraft carriers are mighty fine things when it comes to responding to a tsunami. And 4X4 vehicles are essential when you have had 34 inches of rain. And none of those types I just listed think well of either one.

The meek shall inherit the Earth – and turn it into a slum; us fire-eating, war-mongering, technology-crazed rocket scientists will find other places.

Jan 11, 2009 - 7:18 am 34. Warsong:

29. outa my league:

That’s an interesting question, which is compounded by the amount of Water drawn from the Earth in a given year. But, here’s one of the worlds best kept secrets: Oil is not a by-product of the putrifaction of Dinosaur Carcasses. Believe it or not, there are tiny things called Methanogens, tiny single cell creatures that live in solid rock, miles beneath the surface: Methanogens eat Methane and excrete Crude Oil as body waste.

It is not fully proven, yet (to my knowledge), but it is theorised that Oil is a renewable resource. There are instances, like the “Flower Garden,” a Sea Mount off the coast of Louisiana, that have suddenly refilled themselves, such that all existing Wells were put back into Production and new Wells drilled.

The same thing happened in at least two Fields off the Coast of China, and, there is a rumor of an onshore Pool refilling. All of the above refilled to the point that Oil was shooting out of crevices and cracks in the sea floor…same thing in the “Flower Garden.”

Knowledge of this ‘could’ have a devastating effect on Oil Prices, so it is not something ‘they’ really want publicised (I have been building Oil production facilities for 30 years, in more than a dozen countries).

Jan 11, 2009 - 7:28 am 35. Ari Tai:

re: treating space like a preserve.

Ditto for the earth. It’s likely that environmental religionists will kill far more than they save given they work at cross purpose to progress (and intellect, esp. numbers of intellects). Consider that something almost killed off all of us 150,000 years ago if Mitochondrial Eve is to be believed. Be a pity if mankind disappears because we did not extend every effort to advance ourselves and our technology (and power) just as far as we possibly can. I figure when we have the equivalent of a fully exploitable Sun in everyone’s pocket we’ll have arrived and have a chance. Those that succeed in arguing that individuals don’t need, can’t be trusted with control of this much energy (and must “conserve”) will be responsible for untold death at the time of our next catastrophe. But this isn’t new news. Regulation (and our own sins of omission) continue to hasten everyone’s personal end-of-the-world catastrophe by denying us the medical (and other) advances necessary to live another few pain-free years.

Jan 11, 2009 - 8:58 am 36. programmr:

A car is driven by controlled explosions. Electricity is controlled lightning. Water powered generators are controlled flooding. Let’s get with the program and figure out a way to tap the heat in a volcano. If the heat is removed and used, it provides tremendous amounts of free energy (not counting the infrastructure necessary to harness the process) and reduces the amount of energy available for uncontrolled destruction. Stop worshipping the volcano and harness it instead. Everyone (to include Pele) carries their load!

By the way, here in Oklahoma, only one guy has ever figured out how to harness a tornado so far, and Pecos Bill is generally thought to be a Texan anyway.

Jan 11, 2009 - 9:20 am 37. Raoul Ortega:

These earthquake swarms are quite common for the area. They can occur just about anywhere and last for a few days or weeks and suddenly stop as fast as they start. Just like this latest one. Look at the map and you’ll see another smaller swarm about 10 miles to the northeast, north of Turbid Lake.

The real problem are people like Watts who see something like this anomaly, and despite their lack of any historical background on Yellowstone,leap to a conclusion that something improbable but dramatic is going to happen. He needs to stick to things he knows about.

Far more interesting would be the political repercussions of a small and far more likely eruption* of the Sour Creek resurgent dome that blocked the current outlet to the Lake north of Fishing Bridge It would take only a rise in about 200 feet for the lake to start spilling south into the Snake River drainage. All the water which now flows down the Falls and down the Yellowstone River Canyon and into Montana that is used by ag interests there would be available in Idaho instead. Here’s where the historic perspective comes into play. Back in the 1920s there was a serious political effort to build dams in the southwest part of the park (the Bechler Region) for use by farmers in Idaho. (See also, Teton Dam). One could see pressure from Montana to breach any natural dam while Idaho interests would be allied with Gaian Dirt Worshipers to “let nature take its course”. A course that just happens to help them.

(* That resurgent dome, near LeHardy Rapids, has been responsible for the shifting lake levels mentioned earlier.)

Jan 11, 2009 - 9:28 am 38. bob:

Drilling a caldera might turn out to be a little like punching a small hole in a shaken up Pepsi can on a really hot day. To the trillioneth power.

Jan 11, 2009 - 9:34 am 39. programmer:

bob warns:

Drilling a caldera might turn out to be a little like punching a small hole in a shaken up Pepsi can on a really hot day. To the trillioneth power.

programmer responds:

Then we probably should be careful not to let all that energy go to waste when we do it.

Jan 11, 2009 - 9:39 am 40. Tony:

This story marks the passing of Global Warming, overtaken now by Global Shaking.

Once again, it is evil mankind’s fault, causing ever-increasing numbers of volcanoes, earthquakes and tsunamis. It is not just man’s clumsy, evil footfalls that cause Mother Gaia to shudder in pain and disgust, it is also his evil machinery, the cars and trains especially, the God damned earthmovers and tunneling machines, the hellish oil and gas drilling, and even the demonic sonic booms that offend Gaia’s sensitive skin and breath.

It is only fitting that this massive volcanoe should be in the heart of all of mankind’s evil, the summation of all of humanity’s failings, the ultimate landing place of Adam’s fall from Grace – the United States of America.

Did you ever notice how the so-called Ring of Fire goes around the world touching all of the places most hideously infected by humans? Japan, California, Indonesia. It also goes past Alaska, where Sarah Palin herself is the evil equal of hundreds of millions of regular humans.

Luckily, when he retires, Dick Cheney is going to solve Global Shaking. I think he’ll start with having us all wear ripple-sole shoes, and deflate our tires so they’re a lot softer on Mother Gaia’s tender belly as we go about our madcap destruction of the planet.

The latest version of “The Day the Earth Stood Still” with Keanu Reeves playing Al Gore as Klaatu, is pretty good but it has a sad ending. Klaatu has come to earth, the representative of a far-advanced and highly enlightened universal civilization, to kill all the humans. So far, so good. But somehow, just when the humans are getting turned into a fine, gritty dust, Klaatu loses his way, perhaps bedeviled and bedumbed by the humans he’s been spending too much time with. He lets the evil bastards live!

Jan 11, 2009 - 9:39 am 41. 3Case:

Every day is a gift.

As to whether and when Yellowstone blows up and how much damage it does when it does, it’s all interesting to ponder, I have no control over that event…kinda like I have no control over the solar activity that has produced the effect some people are trying to ride to their own enrichment, which is now known as “Global Climate Change” because the concept of global warming is so obviously debunked that the gulls [i.e. masses] may catch on soon, hence the name change.

Said here before and will say again now, it amazes me how rabid evolutionists invest so heavily, and violently, in the static. Marxists have the same problem. Funny coincidence that.

Jan 11, 2009 - 9:40 am 42. programmer:

As I was running out the door for an appointment, a thought hit me and I ran back here to post this question for any of the many knower of many things among BC commentariat.

Where does the heat in a volcano come from? The earth is a large rock radiating heat into cold space. Who is stoking the fire, keeping the house warm, so to speak?

Jan 11, 2009 - 9:48 am 43. RWE:

Back in the 70’s they tried to push through a Law of Outer Space treaty, exactly like the Law of the Sea treaty.

That treaty would have declared Space to be “the possession of all mankind.” Sounds just touchy feely but what it meant was that if you discovered a rich vein of Unobtanium on the Moon, and it could be used to build starships, replace fossil fuels, cure cancer, solve world hunger and make every woman a dead ringer for Marilyn Monroe, then the likes of Robert Mugabe could step up and claim a share of the proceeds in the name of Zimbabwe. Never mind that they had not spent a thin dime to reach and exploit that resource, a share of it was a “right.”

As for the source of oil, I am an advocate of the natural formation theory. The outer plants have incredible quantities of hydrocarbons, and none of it came from dead dinosaurs. It was created during the formation of the solar system, and that is where it came from on Earth, not from decaying biomass.

Back in the late 70’s, southern Calif was all atwitter over the discovery of the “Palmdale Bulge.” A large area around Palmdale had risen several inches and that Meant Something. Like The Big One was coming. I talked to an earthquake scientist and he said it was all nonsense. The amount of “bulge” could be attributed entirely to the error in the measuring equipment. And sure enough, 6 months later, way back on page A29 of the LA Times, they admitted just that.

Jan 11, 2009 - 9:55 am 44. RWE:

Programmer:

The heat is created by the pressure of the Earth and by natural radioactivity.

That and a little guy in argyle socks, riding pants, and a cashmere sweater, running a really big furnace.

Jan 11, 2009 - 10:01 am 45. Herb:

I ain’t worried, I go to Mass every week.

Besides the Russians have decided that we’re on the verge of a Natural Ice Age (NIA(tm)):

http://english.pravda.ru/science/earth/106922-earth_ice_age-0

NIA vs. AGW! It’s the new Cold v. Hot War.

Jan 11, 2009 - 10:07 am 46. slade:

RE: the Palmdale Bulge scenario

All well and good, but at least the scientists are crying wolf once in awhile. Absolutely nobody in finance or politics or any of the several related industry sectors raised their voices much above a whisper in the 2005 to 2008 time period. And those that did were routinely escorted to the attic to entertain the crazy aunt and weird cousins.

Jan 11, 2009 - 10:10 am 47. RWE:

Slade:

The problem was the scientists were not crying wolf. They were just reporting data and the news media was crying Wolf. That was a point that scientist was making. He thought that we would be able to get to the point where we could predict earthquakes to a degree but that the news media could not be trusted to disseminate the information. He was interested in setting up alternate communications paths to alert people.

As for the mortgage meltdown, there were indeed people pointing out the coming train wreck for almost a decade in advance but the news media was more interested in disseminating accusations of racism as reason to stop the gravy train.

That is a good term for it, come to think of it, “Gravy Train Wreck.”

Jan 11, 2009 - 10:27 am 48. programmer:

RWE,

Thanks for the explanation. I can always understand things better if I can anthropomorphize them.

Jan 11, 2009 - 10:51 am 49. slade:

RWE – The news media is on trial. That’s undoubtedly true but the more egregious failure was the dominance of Group Think among those who were paid to know better. Even Greenspan admitted “we” were wrong to think that markets could self-correct under extreme levels of risk. I posted this link once before but here it is again. Same for a Blind Congress. It was a Trifecta.

Ignoring the Oracles: You Are With the Free Markets, or Against Them

[begin quote]

It’s hard to tell what’s more striking about Raghuram Rajan’s 2005 presentation at the Kansas City Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium — the way many of the dangers he laid out came to pass, or the way he was attacked, and then discounted. (Read the full story.).

Mr. Rajan came to the conference, dedicated to soon-to-retire Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, with strong bona fides as a pro market advocate. He and University Chicago colleague Luigi Zingales wrote a 2003 book, “Saving Capitalism from the Capitalists,” that argued at length that free-market capitalism is the best way to organize an economy, and that free financial markets – through their ability to direct funds to where the economy needs them most – are crucial to the system’s success. But when he suggested at Jackson Hole that markets could get it badly wrong sometimes, and that central banks should consider responding to that, he was lambasted as nostalgic for the old days of highly regulated banking.

Fed Governor Donald Kohn – who for years has played the role of providing intellectual ballast to the central bank’s decisions and now serves as its Vice Chairman – said that for central bankers to enact policy’s aimed at stemming risk-taking would “be at odds with the tradition of policy excellence of the person whose era we are examining at this conference.” Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said the premise of Mr. Rajan’s paper was “misguided.”

“This is a common feature of people when they come across dissent – they want to put you in a box and label you and dismiss you,” says Mr. Zingales. “He is definitely not anti-market. That’s the most mistaken characterization of Raghu.”

The episode suggests one reason that the crisis went unchecked: A dangerous all-or-nothing orthodoxy had come to dominate the policy debate, where one was either for free markets or against them.

[end quote]

Jan 11, 2009 - 11:01 am 50. slade:

That and a little guy in argyle socks, riding pants, and a cashmere sweater, running a really big furnace.

Those were the short-sellers in Wall Street’s Big Five:

In 2007, Wall Street’s five biggest firms — Bear Stearns, Goldman Sachs, Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, and Morgan Stanley — paid a record $39 billion in bonuses to themselves.

That’s $10 billion more than the $29 billion loan taxpayers are making to J.P. Morgan to save Bear Stearns.

Those 2007 bonuses were paid even though the shareholders in those firms last year collectively lost about $74 billion in stock declines — their worst year since 2002.

It blew alright; just not where anybody was looking. I’m done chasing this rhino. Apologies as required.

Jan 11, 2009 - 11:25 am 51. slade:

I was tempted to introduce the subject of Kuhnian paradigm shifts but it is one of those subjects badly abused and reduced to pop psychology in the news media. Nevertheless, alot of shifting plates these days. Or maybe just tinkering at the edges. I don’t know. But the numbers – the magnitude of the raw numbers is humbling, whether it’s Yellowstone of Wall Street. God getting gassed off at our gaussian world of hubris.

Jan 11, 2009 - 11:36 am 52. NahnCee:

Personally, I want to head out into space just for the pleasure of looking back at Sean Penn, Susan Sarandon, Al Gore, Nancy Pelosi and Michael Moore and telling them, “here’s your mother earth, and your multiculturalism, and your political correctness. have fun with them. we’re leaving and you’re not good enough to come with us.”

Jan 11, 2009 - 11:47 am 53. Fred from Canuckistan . . .:

I can look out my front window and see Mt. Baker, sister volcanic mountain to Mt St. Helen, and just hope like crazy that the day it blows the wind is coming out of the west and takes the ash cloud away from my home.

Jan 11, 2009 - 11:48 am 54. erc rodson:

In regard to # 34: Sorry, methanogens don’t consume methane, they excrete it. Wish it were the other way around, but it isn’t.

Drilling for geothermal energy is not generally profitable. You need to go too deep in order to get enough temperature differential for efficient power generation. There are local exceptions: The Geysers plant near Calistoga, California, several places in New Zealand, Italy, Philipines, Iceland. Like solar energy, it’s free but it ain’t cheap.

As for reducing the amount of latent energy in a magma pool by running water into it, the numbers don’t work out. Too many kiloCalories spread over too large an area. Rock is a good insulator, so any cooling would be local in nature. The three laws of thermodynamics are unforgiving.

Jan 11, 2009 - 1:01 pm 55. Some guy:

By coincidence, Rand Simberg is looking for a compelling reason for a space program at: http://www.transterrestrial.com/?p=15913

Jan 11, 2009 - 1:05 pm 56. steveaz:

No one’s pointed this out yet, so I will: Volcanic eruptions are the earth’s way of releasing excess heat. Think of the earth as a homeothermic mammal, and its volcanos as sweat-pores.

Which is one of the failures of the GW movement. Al Gore’s “scientific consensus” only concerns itself with the most changeable portion of the earth, its atmosphere. The fact that miles of semi-molten mantle and core underlie and interact with atmospheric and oceanic temperature fluctuations, as well as the sun’s radiative output, seem lost on these “experts.”

GW’s narrow focus on the earth’s changeable air-temperatures is not accidental, either. To forge a global media movement that seeks to regulate the amounts and types of energy that Americans use everyday requires that we be convinced that the climate is “changing.” To use, instead, more stable, higher specific heat materials to gauge the earth’s thermal gain would not generate the necessary amount of fear among the public.

For sheep to be herded successfully into the stock chute, they need to fear the shepherd’s whip and dog. No fear, no herd. The GW progressives know this.

Jan 11, 2009 - 1:08 pm 57. Quig:

When she blows expect MASSIVE disruptions in air travel.

Jan 11, 2009 - 1:16 pm 58. NahnCee:

That’s fly-over country. Shouldn’t be hardly any interruptions at all.

Jan 11, 2009 - 1:32 pm 59. trangbang68:

Like RWE, I had a bout with catastrophe in 1971,
A year back from the man made cataclysm in Southeast Asia, I woke up at about 5 AM in a barbiturate haze in Venice Beach to feel the bounce of the Sylmar earthquake. It came close to breaking the Van Norman Dam which would have taken out thousands. As it was 30 died.
I left California just in time to meet Hurricane Camille in the southern tier of New York where it caused record damage.
In a few years later I put up the white flag and surrendered to the God who “even the winds are subject to”
The world has a scary apocalyptic feel. Jesus is the refuge.
Hearing the pleas to escape to space reminds me of the hippie anthems ,”Wooden Ships” by CSNY and “Hijack the Starship” by Marty Balin.

Jan 11, 2009 - 2:15 pm 60. Tcobb:

Insofar as disrupting air travel is concerned, my understanding is that volcanic ash can chew up the turbines on jet engines. Its not like the ash from your fireplace, its little tiny, tiny pieces of rock that are pretty abrasive.

Jan 11, 2009 - 2:23 pm 61. heather:

sometime around 1200 AD there was a huge volcano eruption in the Yukon Territory, in the White River area (north west of Whitehorse.) Signs of that eruption can be seen some 300 miles south on the clay cliffs around Whitehorse.

Anyway. A few people (some think about 200 or so) headed south for warmer climes and eventually became what is known as the Apache Nation (this is based on linguistic similarities between the Athapaskan and Apache languages.)

Interesting, eh?

Jan 11, 2009 - 2:47 pm 62. Contrarian:

Four years ago, Michael Crichton wrote a novel entitled “State of Fear.” Sadly, he has recently passed away, but this book addresses the irrational fear of big events that permeates Western Civilization. The theme was the hysteria over Global Warming, but the argument can be directed at any of the catastrophe scenarios that grip our imagination, like the “imminent” threat of the Yellowstone volcano. If you haven’t read this book, be sure to do so. Here is what one of his main characters has to say:

“Has it ever occurred to you how astonishing the culture of Western society really is? Industrialized nations provide their citizens with unprecedented safety, health and comfort. Average life spans increased fifty percent in the last century. Yet modern people live in abject fear. They are afraid of strangers, of disease, of crime, of the environment. They are afraid of the homes they live in, the food the eat, the technology that surrounds them….They are timid, nervous, fretful, and depressed. And even more amazingly, they are convinced the environment of the entire planet is being destroyed around them. Remarkable! Like the belief in witchcraft, it’s an extraordinary delusion….”

The probability of any of the catastrophe scenarios occurring in the lifetime of anyone living on the planet today is extremely low. All these scenarios will come to pass some day, but for now I do not plan to lose any sleep over them.

Jan 11, 2009 - 3:13 pm 63. steveaz:

Contrarian,
Michael Chrichton deserves a lot more recognition for his analysis of the intersection (or, should I say, collision) of science with culture.

It is possible that, because he never stooped to parroting the nostrums of those bent on creating urban cultural fads, he never gained a Pullitzer Prize nor the Queen’s Knighthood for his prescient work.

This bespeaks poorly of pop-culture and its media mavens, and highly of Chrichton. He is one of my heros.

God rest his soul.

Jan 11, 2009 - 3:38 pm 64. bob:

Cleaning Up In Ritzville, Washington After St. Helens My relatives, right in the middle of the heaviest fallout. Had to chisel plow the ash into the soil. Slowed farming down for a while.

Jan 11, 2009 - 4:07 pm 65. Eggplant:

There’s a huge risk attached to having our entire species and civilization dependent upon the health of a single planet. So called “acts of god” like volcanoes blowing up, natural climate change due to solar phenomena or getting whacked by an asteroid have happened many times in the Earth’s history. Major geological epochs mark these events, e.g. the end of the Permian Age, the Triassic-Cretaceous event, the end of the last great Ice Age, etc. The Mars Plan that von Braun proposed to Vice President Agnew back in the early 1970s called for establishment of manned bases on Mars by the early 1980s and permanent Martian settlements by the 21st century. That proposal was dead-on-arrival for political reasons (von Braun left the Space Program shortly afterwards). It amazes me that human beings simply assume that the Earth is indestructible and make no effort at all to protect themselves against single planet catastrophe. If Obama had any sense, he would initiate a John F. Kennedy style program to establish permanent extraterrestrial settlements (the technical and economic spinoffs from such a program would be exactly the tonic needed to restart our economy). However Obama is almost guaranteed to focus instead on Keynesian style busy work (Roosevelt style WPA projects) and pointless global warming related programs. This will be equivalent to putting the money into a huge pile and lighting it on fire. I’ve come to the conclusion that human beings are too stupid to become an interplanetary species (no wonder that no one else in the galaxy wants to communicate with us).

Jan 11, 2009 - 4:09 pm 66. Contrarian:

Eggplant,

I’m all for moving out into the Solar System and beyond, but we mammals have been around since the Dinosaurs went to their own Valhalla, and nothing has wiped us out yet. We humans are the end result of all this mammalian survival in the face of comets, volcanoes, ice ages, and whatever else ole Mother Nature has thrown at us, and here we are 6 billion strong. The likelihood of a planetary catastrophe wiping us out in the near future is extremely remote.

Jan 11, 2009 - 4:19 pm 67. RWE:

Eggplant:

A JFK style space plan = flash in the pan. Big show, no lasting substance.

By the way, I read in a book entitled (I think) “The Day After Doomsday” in the early 80’s that up until the 1880’s the coast of California used to get hit by hurricanes regularly. Has anyone else seen that anywhere?

If it started happening again it would be taken as Proof Postive of Global Warming.

Jan 11, 2009 - 4:24 pm 68. steveaz:

Eggplant,
If I was an alien listening in to our media-emissions, I’m not sure I’d want to contact us in the first place.

I mean, we aren’t really a unified populous due to a zillion petty grievances ranging from ethnic divides, pseudo-science, and “colonial” and class victim-hoods.

After all, what kind of relationship could an imagined, modern “We” forge with an alien race? Other than the entertainment derived from playing one-upmanship with our galactic neighbors in the hopes of scoring benefits from the cosmic relationship for this or that faction of mankind, what could Humanity ever offer to a functional, long-term post-terrestrial amity?

We’ve got a long way to go before we have self-actualized as a primate species, and even longer before we can approach an “other” planet’s derivative space-traveler with the gifts and partnership that true friendship requires.

As to settling Mars. Let’s get to it. I’d rather build a space-highway to Mars, than fund Boston’s next Underground – though many would say, the latter should come first.

To which I say, we’re caught in a morass that we need to get out of. And the competing political scheme that a human Martian colony may provide could serve as just the political foil we need to break out of it.

Jan 11, 2009 - 4:34 pm 69. Contrarian:

RWE,

If it happened 130 years ago, before cars, planes, and 6 billion humans farting all day long, how could it be the result of human caused global warming? I think you were being facetious, but this is the problem with the hysterical class being unable to put things in perspective. Our fascination with catastrophes reflects this. In the near future, you and I are far more likely to be killed by weather (tornadoes, hurricanes, floods from rain storms), car accidents or heart attacks, than super volcanoes, comets from the sky, ice ages and so forth.

Jan 11, 2009 - 4:41 pm 70. Doug:

The Rebirth of Phuket

Jan 11, 2009 - 4:54 pm 71. Contrarian:

Here’s another hysteria example:

http://worldnetdaily.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=85819

Is is a sad commentary that people think they cannot deal with a few hours or days of discomfort. Gee, no electricity for a week? Oh my God! No TV? Do I really have to walk to school, mom? I think the Amish and much of the people in the Third World will simply shrug and say “business as usual.”

Jan 11, 2009 - 5:02 pm 72. steveaz:

Yup, Contrarian,
In the 70’s my family dragged my siblings and I through Western Iran – the town of Ahwaz, to be exact. We lived there for almost two years.

It was not uncommon for the electricity to go out for weeks. Hot showers? Forget it. If we were lucky enough to have propane, we could add a kettle’s worth of hot water to the tub to take the chill off.

Modern urban amenities are turning us all into a nation of wimps, I’m afraid. Many of us have 5000 watt entertainment centers, surround-sound speakers, and we’re still not satisfied.

“I want my MTV!” Seems this all began ’round the time music videos grabbed our teenagers’ attentions, and TV, rather than parents, took over the customization of America’s children.

Jan 11, 2009 - 6:30 pm 73. Eggplant:

RWE said:

“A JFK style space plan = flash in the pan. Big show, no lasting substance.”

I agree with you that we don’t need or want another “Flags and Footprints” public relations spectacle. However a Mars colonization project could be constructed such that it would have permanent significance. For example, make the project goal to place 500 people on Mars as several young families along with a technology permitting survival based entirely upon Martian in-situ resources without resupply from the Earth. Set the time limit from initial Presidential announcement to project termination at 10 years and an American cost cap of $800 billion. Allow other governments to chip in but don’t permit project success to depend upon the performance of non-American participants. Yes, I know this is total fantasy. More than likely the entire Space Program will be abandoned in the next ten years because everything went to hell.

RWE also said:

“By the way, I read in a book entitled (I think) “The Day After Doomsday” in the early 80’s that up until the 1880’s the coast of California used to get hit by hurricanes regularly. Has anyone else seen that anywhere?”

California was a pretty nasty place about 3000 years ago. Apparently California would regularly go through droughts lasting 30 years without raining a drop. California’s Indians are nothing to write home about compared to other North American Indian tribes, e.g. the tribes near the Great Lakes (Iroquois), the Anasazi of Mesa Verde, Mayan, etc. My theory for this is the Californian Indians kept being wiped out by natural disasters and then replaced by people pushed in by more successful neighboring tribes. It worries me that California’s mild climate for the last three centuries might have been a historical accident.

Jan 11, 2009 - 6:33 pm 74. RWE:

Contrarian: Yes and no. It is absurd that the climate change of the 1880’s (even if it occurred) was man-caused. But if it swung back today then I am sure the GW people who scream their heads off.

You do see cases where hurricanes form off the West coast of South America and head up toward Southern Calif. One a coupel of years back even went right up the Sea of Cortez. So it is not hard to imagine that a minor change would cause them to go whanging into Malibu or Palos Verdes or even Santa Barbara. Hurricanes plus the steep terrain of Southern Calif could equal lots of mudslides. Imagine 34 inches of rain in LA over a 3 day period.

And I believe that the climate change ultimately led to the dust bowl of the 30’s. I understand that moisture from tropical systems used to spread over the southwest, encouraging people to believe that farming was easier there. Climate change led to the place drying out, and the crops planted were far less able to survive than the buffalo grass that was there originally. Who is to say what is normal?

And the Chumash sure had it easier than a lot of people. Along the coast you need a modest amount of heat over much of the year and no need for air conditioning at all.

Jan 11, 2009 - 7:01 pm 75. A Conservative Teacher:

Yet more evidence of global warming, right? Just joking.

Jan 11, 2009 - 7:13 pm 76. bob:

Much Of The Midwest Used To Be A Desert

We live in a delicate balance betwixt too much and too little.

Jan 11, 2009 - 7:27 pm 77. Leo Linbeck III:

The sort of “sky is falling” reaction described here and in AGW circles is sort of like a societal allergic reaction.

There is a hypothesis, the Hygiene Hypothesis

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hygiene_hypothesis

that says that allergic reactions are caused by very powerful chemicals produced by our body to fight parasites. Unlike the other types of pathogens that our immune system fights – bacteria, viruses, and fungi – parasites can be very large (some tapeworms can reach dozens of feet in length). Our body has developed mechanisms for attacking these huge invaders, in particular specialized cells called mast cells.

The HH says that because the western world is so clean, when we’re children we don’t get exposed to the actual pathogens that our immune system is designed to attack. As a result, our immune system begins overreacting to non-pathogens (or mild pathogens), and the chemicals we release attack our own healthy tissue. This hypothesis is strongly supported by epidemiological evidence; for instance, there are many allergies that only exist in the developed world, and children born of parents who immigrate from the developing world are more prone to develop those allergies (showing that race or genetics doesn’t play as important a role).

So, living as we in the West do in the safest, healthiest, cleanest, most prosperous countries in the history of mankind, and having a generation of people who have never really experienced an existential threat, we now overreact to non-threats, and our societal antibodies attack our own healthy society.

By analogy, then, AGW is like pollen. I guess that makes Al Gore ragweed.

Praise the Lord and pass the Claritin.

L3

Jan 11, 2009 - 7:45 pm 78. steveaz:

Interesting comment, Leo, and right on target, I think.

A supporting comment: apparently, babies born to women in impoverished areas show a predilection to obesity if they receive the level of nourishment deemed normal in first-world nations.

It turns out that the fetus’ experience in the malnourished womb prepares the infant for survival in its mother’s resource-poor environment. However, this same baby will be ill-prepared to consume the 1500-2000 calorie diet most of us consider a birth right, and will suffer if he receives it.

Turns out, a glut of food may not always be preferable to slim pickings: just another curl in the national health-care debate.

Jan 11, 2009 - 8:11 pm 79. NahnCee:

How did we manage to go from the delicious frisson of post-apocalyptic super-volcano’s to starving children in Africa … again?

Jan 11, 2009 - 8:17 pm 80. SteveWe:

A previous commenter mentioned “Unearthing Atlantis” was written by Charles Pelegrino (not Plimpton!!) with a forward by Arthur C. Clarke (Vintage Books). The cataclysm at Thera destroyed the Minoan civilization, rocked the Egyptian civilization, and set the stage for the Mycenaean advance — the bedrock of western civ.

It was one hell of a volcanic blast! Pelegrino compares it to St. Helens and Pelee in one chapter. Thera was trump. Imagine vaporizing people 70 miles away!

Most BC denizens will surely love reading this book for its geological, historical and archeological content.

Jan 11, 2009 - 9:13 pm 81. Phil Ossiferz Stone:

What’s with all the doom/gloom BS? I have a nice healthy little volcano in my back yard — Mount Lassen — that politely erupts (with plenty of warning) every hundred years or so. The last time it erupted was 1918. I’ve been looking forward to watching the next since I was a little kid. Volcanos are fun. Deal with it.

Jan 11, 2009 - 11:39 pm 82. Eggplant:

Contrarian said:

“.. we mammals have been around since the Dinosaurs went to their own Valhalla, and nothing has wiped us out yet. We humans are the end result of all this mammalian survival in the face of comets, volcanoes, ice ages, and whatever else ole Mother Nature has thrown at us, and here we are 6 billion strong.”

Some species have been around for eons and survived many mass extinctions, e.g. sharks, cockroaches, horsetails (equisetum), ferns, ginkgos, bunya pines, tulip trees, magnolias, etc. It’s a mystery to me why sharks have survived while plesiosaurs became extinct (they occupied the same ecological niche). Likewise, why have ginkgo and redwood trees survived but the previously very common glossopteris trees become extinct? I suspect that some forms of life are more robust due to the way their DNA is encoded (more resistant to viruses and different forms of mutation). There’s probably a trade off there, e.g. a shark can better resist cancer but has had some of its evolutionary capability frozen, etc. I should emphasize that I don’t really know what I’m talking about (not my field of expertise). It would be interesting to have an evolutionary zoologist chime in at this moment.

Contrarian also said:

“The likelihood of a planetary catastrophe wiping us out in the near future is extremely remote.”

I believe this to be nonsense. Our technological civilization is about 5000 years old. On the scale of geological time this is like the blink of an eye. Compared to a shark, cockroach or horseshoe crab, we are an unproven species.

Jan 12, 2009 - 12:03 am 83. Contrarian:

Eggplant,

Our technological civilization may be 5000 years old, but homo sapiens sapiens have been around for at least 200,000 years. And our predecessors, neanderthals and homo erectus, go back over one million years. An awful lot has happened on the Earth in that time, including ice ages, super volcanoes, massive tsunamis, profound droughts, etc., and we are still chugging along.

Jan 12, 2009 - 12:36 am 84. Warsong:

54. erc rodson:
“Sorry, methanogens don’t consume methane, they excrete it. Wish it were the other way around, but it isn’t.”

I may have gotten the name wrong, but, these little creatures do exist (don’t remember the name of the project that discovered them), and, the opposite as well, there are little microbial, single Cell creatures that were discovered in the North Sea Fields that eat Oil and excrete H^2S, Hydrogen Sulfide Gas. It’s a very ignored fact that Oil is Biodegradable, and, injecting Sea Water into the North Sea Pools resulted in the worlds sweetest Crude going Sour, because of these little creatures (which is how they discovered them).

Note: Hydrogen Sulfide Gas, H^2S, is the most deadly Gas known, it will kill you instantly Brain Dead at concentrations above 5 Parts/Billion (smells llike Rotten Eggs).

I helped build Exxon/Mobil Platform Diana in the KBR Marine Yard in Greensbayou, then went aboard after it was installed 160 Miles South of Freeport. While they were setting the Anchors for the Platform they discovered huge beds of Methane Ice exposed on the Sea Bottom of the Gulf of Mexico.

Scientists called in to study these unusual structures discovered an entire Predator/Prey Food Chain living on and in the Methane Ice, that could survive nowhere else on earth. All of them were classified as Methanogens, and, here, as well, the lowest creature on the Food Chain was a type of Methanogen that consumes Methane and excretes Oil. These were discovered while I was completing the Platform, about 2400 feet straight above the beds of Methane Ice.

I was on Phillips Platform 36/22 (1977-1978), on the Ekofisk-Teeside Pipeline in the North Sea, when they discovered what caused North Sea Crude to go sour. They did it themselves by injecting Sea Water containing Oil eating Bacteria into the Oil Pools to raise pressure and force the Oil toward the top of the Pool, making it easier to recover.

I’m sure we all missed the “Banner Headlines” caused by the Film Crew that went back to the site of the Exxon Valdese disaster sometime within the last 5 years. They were supposed to document the environmental devastation, but, they had a problem, couldn’t find it. They went back to Seattle, bought an expensive GPS, returned to the correct coordinates, and, discovered that they were in the right place to begin with, but there were Sea Otters, Orca’s, colonies of Sea Birds and Seals everywhre, with only a few Black Rocks above the normal waterline on the Beach. The shoreline and the Bay were totally recovered.

Somehow, I missed those Headlines…I wonder why? Could it be that this would place some very environmentally correct Lawsuits in jeapordy? Maybe, interfere with some government handouts?…”Hey, everybody look, Mammoth Dome is swelling up, Yellowstone may erupt!!!”

Jan 12, 2009 - 2:16 am 85. Warsong:

80. SteveWe:

“A previous commenter mentioned “Unearthing Atlantis” was written by Charles Pelegrino (not Plimpton!!) with a forward by Arthur C. Clarke (Vintage Books).”

Exactly right…durn, I hate it when I write before thinking. My wife is gettin’ old, ya know, and, it’s affecting my memory…

Memory Piquer: Charles Pelligrino, inventor of Cloning, the mentor of “Jurassic Park,” a Paleontologist whose co-conspirators complained that “his specimens still stink,” friend of Werner Von Braun, and, on the first Dive on the Titanic with Bill Ballard(?).

I’ve got all his books (four? five?), somewhere, but, for some reason I keep confusing his name with George Plimpton…hate that. I’m in Iraq, at the moment, and, it may be a couple of years before I get to dig through my library again, but, I’ve gotta read those books again.

Strangely, or, not so strangely, we’re no different than our most ancient civilized ancestors (Sumerians, etc), we’ve always looked up, expecting something to fall on us out of the skies, or, blow up under our feet. The problem is, we’ve reached a state of development that impells us to think we can ‘do something’ about it. This is where paranoia thrives, and, Chicken Little reigns.

The more sterile your surroundings, the quicker you lose all immunity.

Jan 12, 2009 - 3:13 am 86. Fletcher Christian:

Contrarian – IIRC, there is good evidence that approximately 70,000 years ago the human race went through a bottleneck. Apparently, the genetic evidence supports the notion that H. sapiens was down to 10,000 individuals. The disaster wouldn’t have to have been much worse to push us down below the genetic drift level, or wipe us out altogether.

The fact that there are 6 billion of us is probably a bad thing, not a good one, from the survival point of view. And Western civilisation is very vulnerable indeed to the sort of disruption that Yellowstone or a major asteroid strike might cause. Or World War III, for that matter. The carrying capacity for humans under Stone Age conditions is MUCH less than the current population.

I don’t know where I saw this, but apparently the risk for any individual of dying in an asteroid strike event is roughly the same as the risk of dying in an air accident. Of course, the probability of the latter event is much higher – but it kills maybe a couple of hundred people; another Chixculub would kill most of us.

Regarding asteroid strikes, it is very strange to me that the resources devoted to protection against such an event are trivial; possibly $20 million per year and half a dozen full-time staff. (How many minutes of the Iraq war does that equate to?) At the moment, we are fairly sure that there are several hundred rocks ranging from the size of an office block to that of Mount Everest that might have our name on them; but we don’t know whether any do, and we won’t until either it happens or we start taking the prospect seriously.

Maybe we need to lose a city to a random rock before we’ll wake up. I know which one would be my preferred candidate, as being least useful to the rest of us.

Bottom line; we have all our eggs in one basket. Time to build some more.

Jan 12, 2009 - 6:03 am 87. Quig:

84. Warsong:
“Note: Hydrogen Sulfide Gas, H^2S, is the most deadly Gas known, it will kill you instantly Brain Dead at concentrations above 5 Parts/Billion (smells llike Rotten Eggs).”

Just a little hyperbole there?

“Mortality/Morbidity
Low-level exposures usually produce local eye and mucous membrane irritation, while high-level exposures rapidly produce fatal systemic toxicity.
Exposures of 700-800 ppm or greater usually result in death.” Ref. http://emedicine.medscape.com/article/815139-overview

I recollect making the stuff in chem lab. Don’t recall any bodies on the floor though. However, the above cited article mentions the petroleum industry as “responsible for most cases of H2 S toxicity in North America.”

Jan 12, 2009 - 6:41 am 88. HV:

Someone wrote a book (sorry don’t remember the title or author) theorizing that an ash cloud from a large eruption induced a multi-year period of crop failures around the year 540 AD, which forced people back to subsistence living, and caused the final collapse of the Roman Empire. Subsistence living, i.e. living off the land, would not be possible with today’s population levels.

It occurs to me that in a multi-year crop failure such as that, after all the animal sources of protein have run out, the biggest source of protein would be us. Frightening thought.

Alternatively, would it be possible for us to synthesize our food (= synthesize amino acids?) from raw materials? Or would it be more efficient to try to grow crops with artifical light? I suspect neither approach could be ramped up quickly enough, although the prospect of starvation is a powerful motivator.

Jan 12, 2009 - 7:54 am 89. aaron:

I favor putting some of our eggs in another basket…

perhaps these folks who move off planet would become the seed for a successor species, Homo exodus.

Jan 12, 2009 - 9:47 am 90. Dave:

@Quig #87: As I recall hydrogen sulfide used to be added to natural gas in order to give the latter an odor that would let you know when a leak occured.

Since the odor exceeded the toxcity by a magnitude or three, minute quantities were all that were needed.

Natural gas plant north of my home town used to release some hydrogen sulfide out of a very tall smokestack. It was soon diluted and degraded to the point of harmlessness but you could still smell it 30 miles downwind.

There are uncounted millons of people who are alive today because of the petroleum industry
they say is so terrible. Frustrating, ain’t it?

Jan 12, 2009 - 10:33 am 91. slade:

we now overreact to non-threats, and our societal antibodies attack our own healthy society. – Leo

Just briefly , need to distinguish between reconnaisance and reaction. Recon is what it is – we’re all gonna die tomorrow – or not. But when the reaction, to threats that have been well defined, is to quietly leverage the situation to maximize personal advantage at the expense of shareholders and constituents, the grand generalities decompose into nothing more than base human nature. The mistakes I can forgive. The reaction to warnings … never.

I favor putting some of our eggs in another basket… – aaron

I favor putting the rotten eggs in another galaxy.

Jan 12, 2009 - 10:56 am 92. Steynian 307 « Free Canuckistan!:

[...] DOOM-WATCH: 2012 solar storms — we’re gonna DIE!.. if Yellowstone doesn’t kill us all first.. UPDATE: cancel that last doom for this week …. [...]

Jan 12, 2009 - 11:19 am 93. Eggplant:

Slade said:

“I favor putting the rotten eggs in another galaxy.”

It’s cheaper to put rotten eggs in the garbage.

Some of our best and brightest should go to another world and allow Charles Darwin to work his magic.

Jan 12, 2009 - 11:44 am 94. Contrarian:

Fletcher Christian,

But our species even survived that stress point and went on to settle to entire planet. Large populations spread out over large areas are more immune to local disasters than small isolated populations. I believe the stress point you refer to was a prolonged drought in Africa. Our species had not yet left the African continent, so was very susceptible to any catastrophe occurring there. Today, if similar conditions affected Africa, but other parts of world were fine, then the catastrophe would be local in nature.

All of these mega-catastrophe scenarios presume that everywhere on the Earth will be affected equally, but this is not the case. They make great novels and movies, but in reality, they have low probability in any short term period. For example, If the super volcano erupts once every 70,000 years, than the probability in any one year is 1 divided by 70,000. So don’t worry, be happy!

Jan 12, 2009 - 12:28 pm 95. Eggplant:

Contrarian:

Yeast initially spreads rapidly through grapejuice before being poisoned by its own excrement.

Are human beings smarter than yeast? Is the Earth turning into vinegar or is it fine wine? At least locusts are smart enough to fly to another wheat field.

Jan 12, 2009 - 12:46 pm 96. Darren:

Just a point, we’re not “overdue” for a Yellowstone eruption because Yellowstone hasn’t called to schedule one and then not shown up. Just because there is an observed periodicity of 650,000 for a couple of prior events doesn’t mean that one is expected in another 650,000 years.

If it’s off by 10,000 years, or 100,000, it’s not even close to “late” on a geologic time scale but that much of a difference obviously matters greatly on a human time scale.

Jan 12, 2009 - 12:59 pm 97. Contrarian:

Eggplant,

The yeast example begs the question. It is an isolated population and does not affect the larger yeast population which continues to thrive. The Earth is not a glass of grapefruit juice. My point, which is why I quoted Michael Crichton earlier in this string, is we blow these mega-catastrophes way out of proportion and act like they are imminent threats. The Earth will survive everything except the Sun going Nova in several billions years. And we humans are a very tenacious species with technology and knowledge that allows us to manipulate Mother Nature almost as we see fit.

Jan 12, 2009 - 1:26 pm 98. Al_Batross:

“Our technological civilization is about 5000 years old. On the scale of geological time this is like the blink of an eye….we are an unproven species” – Eggplant

A sobering topic, both terrifying and fascinating.
I agree that our confidence as a species comes from our brevity, rather like a brash teenager, whose hormones swamp any awareness of self-mortality.
If we consider why our history is hard to trace back within the relatively short span of 10,000 years since the last Ice Age receded, we find alarming indications of disasters which interrupted civilizational development suddenly and ruthlessly.
Minoan civilisation may have begun as many as 8,000 years ago, around the time when the chicken was being domesticated in SE Asia, and when the Clovis people might have been domesticating horses in N America, had they not been wiped out by the Great Lakes comet and it’s aftermath some 2,000 years earlier. What might the Minoans have achieved if they had been spared volcanic calamity ? Would the two great civilisations of the Mediterranean been just Minos and Egypt ? Would Greece and Rome ever have emerged ? Would Minoan survival have changed the history of the world for the better ?
A monotheistic view of all this might be that God, being jealous and zealous, trashes entire civilisations as and when it pleases him to do so, regardless of the beauty of their art and architecture, or their earnest searches into the meaning of life. However, the Old Testament concedes “that time and chance happen to all men”, or as I think Tolkien put it, “not all who deserve life will live”.
And so it is today. The Islamists may yet get a chance to dance in the streets when calamity strikes a peaceful infidel land which has endeavoured to be nice to them and not to get caught up in GWOT. Or maybe a stray comet will end the Middle East conflict by bursting over Arabia, igniting the holy cities, the oilfields and any stray street dancers, and casting the rest of the world into a new struggle for survival. Perhaps it is all be in the lap of the rocks…

Jan 12, 2009 - 3:27 pm 99. Quig:

@ #90. Dave:

Hydrogen sulfide notwithstanding, I’m with the “Drill Baby! Drill!” camp.

Jan 12, 2009 - 4:17 pm 100. Eggplant:

Contrarian said:

“The Earth will survive everything except the Sun going Nova in several billions years.”

It is my understanding that we’ll go into a run away greenhouse effect before the Sun becomes a red giant (the Sun is too small to go nova). Stars tend to burn hotter and gain intensity as they age. Supposably the Sun was about 15% less intense a couple billion years ago (the Earth had a much thicker atmosphere back then). It has been theorized that Venus was much more earthlike during this early period and had oceans similar to what the Earth currently has. There has been some speculation that there might have been primitive biology on Venus before its run away greenhouse effect sterilized the planet. Unfortunately almost all traces of that earlier Venus would have been buried under eons of volcanic activity.

Jan 12, 2009 - 5:15 pm 101. NahnCee:

“Some of our best and brightest should go to another world and allow Charles Darwin to work his magic.”

What would be the definition / qualifications of “best and brightest”, do you suppose? Would it be the same sort of winnowing process as we saw in “The Right Stuff”, leading decades later to a lady astronaut in an adult diaper? Or would we give priority to educated people with tenure, or Wall Street Masters of the Universe who make a certain amount of money in bonuses every year?

What about diversity? Would we allow an almost-best-&-brightest 10% to make up for years of cultural and educational deprivation?

The original pilgrims self-selected. That is how the exodus off the planet should also occur, but I think rather than that it will be seen as a status symbol where you’ll have people like Rod Blog selling seats on whatever ship it is to the highest bidder.

Jan 12, 2009 - 7:33 pm 102. Eggplant:

Earlier I said:

“Some of our best and brightest should go to another world and allow Charles Darwin to work his magic.”

NahnCee asked:

“What would be the definition / qualifications of “best and brightest”, do you suppose?”

Again, I think the opportunity to colonize Mars has come-and-gone (our descendants are doomed to die with the Earth’s destruction). The method for selecting the best candidates for a Mars colony is not something one discusses with casual company (it’s not a politically correct topic). The stupid tactic would be to send a bell curve distribution of people, e.g. include people with known genetic defects, etc. The correct way is to select Olympic athletes with I.Q.s over 150 with no known genetic problems in their families. This is obvious eugenics stuff and would make moonbats jump up and down. Why must it be this way? Simple math. The cost for a Mars colony would be on the order of $800 billion. Only between 500-1000 people could be sent for that price tag (say 800 for easy math). That means it’s $1 billion for each colonist. It’s obvious that you’re not sending congenital idiots to Mars at $1 billion a pop. Only Uebermenschen need apply. However it’s also obvious that the group should be as genetically/racially diverse as possible to minimize problems with inbreeding. Also there’s the interesting question of male/female ratio. One could argue (incorrectly) that the colonists should be all female with lots of frozen semen in liquid nitrogen (abortion/infanticide of mutated children would be an obvious ethical issue). A counter argument is that lots a kids are undesirable in the early phases of the colony before there’s an infrastructure. In the beginning send only men over 50 years old because they’re less sensitive to radiation damage. As the infrastructure builds up, start sending very young men and women who are carefully protected from radiation (they would serve as breeding stock). This is definitely not a conversation topic to held within earshot of the easily offended.

The long term consequences of a successful Mars colony would be interesting. Try to imagine the colonist’s attitudes towards the Earth after they developed the capability of returning. Add to this the likelihood that the Earth would probably have reverted back to barbarism and lost much of its technology. Lots of interesting science fiction novels could be written around this.

Jan 12, 2009 - 11:13 pm 103. NahnCee:

Why can’t you send normal smart women AND breeding stock women? Do you really think the Pilgrims would have succeeded if all they had brought with them were mommy Pilgrims?

(I’m remembering vaguely some sf book predicated upon a separate class of citizens (females) who were breeders, like queens in a hive of bees. They *liked* lounging about being tended to and spawning. But I’m not sure a newly-created colony would be able to support such creatures — surely you’d want multi-disciplined people.)

I also think there should be some sort of selection for adventure or pushing the envelope or SOMEthing to weed out the types who think that “peace” and “stability” are the two most important goals of a society. I can’t decide if an Olympic athlete would be good because of the discipline involved in getting there … or bad because of the discipline involved in getting there.

I love it that you mention IQ, however. Seriously. One is never allowed in polite society any more to point out the differences between people which can partially be measured by their IQ scores.

Jan 13, 2009 - 8:33 pm 104. Warsong:

87. Quig:

““Note: Hydrogen Sulfide Gas, H^2S, is the most deadly Gas known, it will kill you instantly Brain Dead at concentrations above 5 Parts/Billion (smells llike Rotten Eggs).”

Just a little hyperbole there?”

Entirely possible, because the figures I’m quoting are from “Safety Bulletins” passed out in Safety Meetings, from El Palito, Venezuela to Bontang, Selatan, Kalimantan (Borneo), Indonesia. Lot of propaganda gets handed out in Safety Meetings, and, it spreads worldwide, following wherever you go. Like most things of this nature, you hear it so many times it takes on a “lot of Truthiness.” But, I still do a fast exit everytime I smell “Rotten Eggs,” and, have no doubt it will kill you.

In Baghdad, our whole lives are regulated by “Safety Bulletins” based on “Global Warming,” and, “Second Hand Smoke” type statistics (the original “Second Hand Smoke Study” did not exist, only an Advertising Campaign produced by Anti-Smoking CDC employees with money they stole from Congress…to do a study).

Jan 14, 2009 - 2:21 am 105. Eggplant:

This thread has more-or-less timed out so this will be my last post to it.

NahnCee said:

“Why can’t you send normal smart women AND breeding stock women?”

Obviously the breeding stock would have to be smart women otherwise they wouldn’t be breeding stock.

“Do you really think the Pilgrims would have succeeded if all they had brought with them were mommy Pilgrims?”

The Pilgrims would have done just fine as a “girls only thing” if they brought along lots of semen in liquid nitrogen dewars and if the Indians didn’t wipe them out and if they could farm well enough to survive the first winter (plowing requires a fair amount of upper body strength). Obviously the Indian problem required sending enough men to defend the colony (men are good at killing things). Since there’s nothing to kill on Mars, initially bringing along hunter/killers (men) is not obligatory. The main reason to initially bring (old) men to Mars as colonists is they are less sensitive to radiation, have better upper body strength and could serve as grandparents after the colony got rolling. The main reason why having the colony initially as women only is a bad idea is because children should have fathers if they are to develop properly. The plain old boring 50/50 mix of the sexes is probably the best formula due to the requirements of nurturing children.

NahnCee also said:

“But I’m not sure a newly-created colony would be able to support such creatures [queen bee women] — surely you’d want multi-disciplined people.”

Secondary cosmic radiation is a big problem with a Mars colony. Children and breeding adults need to be shielded from it. Once a person was past 45 years of age, their main role would be as surface workers, i.e. work in unshielded radiation environments until killed by an industrial accident. Work on the Martian surface would be very dangerous. Imagine working in a pressure suit with a pneumatic drill. The drill bit breaks, punctures the pressure suit and the worker is dead within seconds due to explosive decompression.

NahnCee said:

“I also think there should be some sort of selection for adventure or pushing the envelope or SOMEthing to weed out the types who think that “peace” and “stability” are the two most important goals of a society.”

The American frontier in the 1880s was remarkably free of moonbats. Imagine how long a moonbat would have survived in Wichita criticizing Wyatt Earp’s methods towards justice (keep honking, I’m reloading). Moonbats tend to accumulate in safe urban environments after people like Wyatt Earp have gone west (or to Mars). America started dying after our frontier went away.

Jan 15, 2009 - 12:54 am

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