As the story of the financial crisis continues to grip American publics, it’s interesting to look at how the Europeans are faring. The short answer is poorly. The Associated Press reports that some European countries, already in a bad way, are sliding off the cliff. The problem is that 2009, in which it was hoped things would get better, may bring even more bad news. The stresses are so great, according to the NYT, that the weaker economies may face a choice between survival and staying in the European union. The AP reports that:
With exports and industrial production falling off a cliff and the banks, particularly in Britain, embroiled in a battle for survival, the prospects for 2009 — when some once thought a turnaround might start — are simply looking grimmer and grimmer. And Europe’s people know it, with rioting and civil disturbances on the rise and Iceland’s government falling victim in part to public anger over the financial crisis.
Latvia, Lithuania and Bulgaria have suffered street clashes amid a toxic brew of sagging economies and local concerns in recent days. In Greece, Athens was rocked again Thursday by another riot following a protest against an attack on a trade unionist. …
So far, Europe’s major economies have escaped unrest, but the European Commission has indicated that it is keeping a close eye on developments. The International Monetary Fund’s managing director Dominque Strauss-Kahn of France told the BBC earlier this week that more unrest could occur almost anywhere. “It can be in my own country (France), it can be in U.K., it can be Germany, it can be in eastern Europe,” he said. …
“Adjustment in the overvalued euro economies (Italy grossly, Spain moderately) will be much more painful, and Italy’s possible exit from the euro augurs for years of crisis,” said Charles Dumas, an analyst at Lombard Street Research.
Most interestingly, the Daily Telegraph quotes a Societe General strategist’s accusation that the failing British economy was like a Ponzi Scheme, without even the excuse of a subprime meltdown to blame for its self-inflicted woes.
NYT article stresses the effect that the crisis is having on the cohesiveness of the EU. Put bluntly, unless things start looking up soon, the stresses will only continue.
“The Italians, the Spaniards, the Greeks, we all have been living in happy land, spending what we did not have,” said George Economou, a Greek shipping magnate, contemplating his country’s economic troubles and others’ from his spacious boardroom. “It was a fantasy world.”
For some of the countries on the periphery of the 16-member euro currency zone — Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain — this debt-fired dream of endless consumption has turned into the rudest of nightmares, raising the risk that a euro country may be forced to declare bankruptcy or abandon the currency.
Neither article is talking about the obvious questions: to what extent is the current crisis rooted in institutional failure and what kinds of institutional changes are now not only desirable, but perhaps inevitable. The one thing that hasn’t changed in the months since the financial crisis is the confidence of Western political leaders to craft a solution; whether this consists of various ’stimulus’ packages or more evanescent invocations of Hope and Change. One thing that hasn’t been mention is whether they are part of the problem.
If the crisis deepens, certain sections of the public may begin to lose confidence in their leaders — who may suffer a crisis of legitimacy in much the way Wall Street financiers already have. This crisis will have to be resolved in some way, ultimately involving a constitutional or electoral process. The politicians may ride it out if the bronco quits bucking. If he keeps going it will be tough to hang on. But the problem is that there is no analytic way of predicting when the crisis will ease. Therefore expressions of hope that 2009 will be the year of recover are just that: Hope. And while all of us would be delighted to hit the jackpot in Lotto, nobody can go through life counting on it. It’s reasonable to surmise that if the economic crisis keeps going, unpredictable political change will be upon us, for good or for ill.
Just exactly what happens if the numbers don’t all line up for Europe over the next few months is anybody’s guess. And just as Europe’s weaker economies are the hardest hit, countries which are dependent on oil exports and Third World societies of all kinds will not only be hurting, they will be desperate. The next 12 years promise to be interesting. Prosperous, maybe not. Interesting for sure.
Even Britain, accounted one of the more prosperous economies is facing unprecedented hard times. The Daily Telegraph reports government warnings hat:
Families must brace themselves for a slump of far greater severity and longevity than the recessions of the 1980s and 1990s, they warned. They said the current crisis will be of a scale to rival the biggest peace-time crisis in modern history — the Great Depression. The warning was delivered by economists and politicians after the Office for National Statistics revealed that the economy shrank by 1.5 per cent in the final three months of 2008 alone. …
Albert Edwards, a strategist at Société Générale, likened the British economy to a Ponzi scheme — a fraudulent debt mountain like that allegedly used by the New York hedge fund manager Bernard Madoff.
“What I find amazing is that people aren’t really nailing Gordon Brown and [Bank of England Governor] Mervyn King for this,” he said. “At least in the US they had the excuse of the arrival of sub-prime — a new sector of the market. We didn’t really have anything similar but we ended up with a bigger national Ponzi scheme than the US.”
What exactly does Ponzi Scheme Albert Edwards refers to consist of? Could it be that the Welfare State itself, combined with falling birthrates essentially meets the criteria of an intergenerational pyramid scam? Well let’s see if we wind up, as has been darkly suggested, in the Great Depression Part 2.
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44 Comments
1. Alexis:I thought lottery politics is what demagoguery is all about. The idea is to give people the idea that they’ll hit the jackpot if they vote you into office. And then once you’re in office, then it’s party time for every insane fantasy or risky adventure in sight. People keep on being told “you can’t win if you don’t play”. Of course, most people lose in any lottery.
Jan 23, 2009 - 11:31 pm 2. NahnCee:Frankly, I’m rather looking forward to Europe’s terminal malaise and demise. Silly bunch of doofi trying to act as a “counterweight” to America. Serves ‘em right.
Jan 23, 2009 - 11:59 pm 3. Dave:We do not have any major problems next to
the Yurps. Certain critical trade stats between Europe and Asia have gone to an effective zero.
On a worst-case basis, we could see the EU
turn into an oversized Balkans. I am not predicting disaster—-yet—- and I do not want it to come about.
In some of the less prosperous EU countries there is the possibility of outright deprivation occuring.
While the USA was formed out of an existing alliance between states, the EU has to be
Jan 24, 2009 - 12:07 am 4. whiskey:considered an “arranged marriage”. There could be a messy divorce.
Very likely a political strong man promising autonomy through tariff isolation. That’s the most likely outcome. Another round of Francos, Mussolinis, and the like.
Taking power through the street not elections. And ruling in hereditary style for generations.
We will also see Muslim breakaway republics, backed up by Iran’s nuclear arsenal, with some form of loyalty to Iran, and constant street-level battles there with the strong men and their forces seeking to reclaim territory and Muslims seeking to conquer them.
Spain is likely lost, France and the UK and the Netherlands and Belgium as well. Perhaps not Italy, Germany, and Eastern Europe. The Scandinavian nations? Lost probably as well, given the strength of PC and the desire to surrender. There the crisis is likely (as in Britain) to enable Muslim mobs to simply take power. Who will stop them? Who indeed will fight and die for country, when it’s value-less, and despised, and the nation itself wants to sell itself or surrender to Islam.
Jan 24, 2009 - 12:39 am 5. wretchard:Spain is likely lost, France and the UK and the Netherlands and Belgium as well. Perhaps not Italy, Germany, and Eastern Europe. The Scandinavian nations? Lost probably as well, given the strength of PC and the desire to surrender. There the crisis is likely (as in Britain) to enable Muslim mobs to simply take power. Who will stop them? Who indeed will fight and die for country, when it’s value-less, and despised, and the nation itself wants to sell itself or surrender to Islam.
If things go to hell in a handbasket we will probably see a transformation in human behavior the likes of which would surprise those who’ve never seen trouble up close. The very same people who only yesterday were the paragons of political correctness will be the most bloodthirsty of all. Paradoxically, it will be those who have always understood human nature who will be the most tolerant and humane of all. There is no greater fanatic than an ivory tower fanatic; no more enthusiastic murderer than a former pacifist. I would rather take my chances with a grizzled sergeant of marines than one of these disciples of Hope who’s suddenly had a lightbulb come on in his head.
Years ago, when I was prowling through Zamboanga del Sur right after the big Muslim flareup that burned through it like a fire, I listened with horror to the stories of how ordinary Christian farmers engaged in payback. In their ordinary incarnation, these guys were all-singing, all-dancing, simple folk. After their villages got burned down and their wives and kids slaughtered, they were different people.
I hope and pray that we find ways to solve our problems rationally and gradually and not stick our heads in the sand until it all pent up and all kinds of red lines are crossed because we attended to things too late; because on the day that man becomes an animal, there is no animal worse than man.
Jan 24, 2009 - 12:50 am 6. Karen:What exactly does Ponzi scheme Albert Edwards refers to consist of? Could it be that the Welfare State itself, combined with falling birthrates essentially meets the criteria of an intergenerational pyramid scam?
As I was reading along, that’s the same question I was thinking. The lack of clarity in articles like this is amazing. I don’t see anywhere any willingness to own up to the reality that you can’t keep over-taxing and burdening the productive class for the benefit of an increasingly growing non-productive (or less-productive) class. The Europeans may not have the excuse of a U.S.-style subprime mortgage scam, but it all pretty much boils down to the same thing: handing out favors to favored groups (the “unfairly” disadvantaged) which must be subsidized from somewhere in some form or another and then waking up to find, oh no, there’s nobody there to pick up the slack. Still, the U.S. govt.’s answer is to pile on even more unimaginable levels of debt, which hasn’t the remotest chance of actually working. I think that in both Europe and the U.S. attempts will be made to mine every enclave of real or imagined “deep pockets” and eventually a resort to confiscation of private property will be chosen as the curative course of action, rather than simply acknowledging real-world truths. Everything I hear or read in the media about the financial crisis brings on this depressing, foreboding outlook.
Jan 24, 2009 - 1:24 am 7. slp:And what will be US Social Security in 20 or 30 years? Another intergenerational Ponzi scheme?
Jan 24, 2009 - 1:46 am 8. outa my league:To the degree that Sharia Law replaces Western Jurisprudence, I would think that entitlements would have to crumble even quicker. After all, Geitner is rather glib about paying into the Ponz, and he doesn’t even wear a turban, at least not in public.
But come to think of it, since Ponzi taxes would only be collected from the dhimmitude, and dholed back as benefit only to the turbitude, then the Ponzi could be made to run to the benefit of the turbitude indefinitely, dhepending on the dhimmi/turbi ratio. The dhimmi may be dhummies, but not the turbis, it would seem.
Jan 24, 2009 - 3:53 am 9. MarkL:Wretchard, No.5
I can see no way but that. I hate to say it, but it is too late. It has been too late since the last chance flared into bright life during the Reagan/Thatcher years,and was then snuffed out afterwards by third way socialists and populist fools.
We are witnessing, in the UK, the sight of the inevitable collapse of the welfare state. Brought down by populist politicians and the subclasses of ‘entitled mendicants’ they created: they have consumed the capital of the past and replaced it with nothing. What happens? Who knows? We have never seen this before. We are in terrifying new territory and it is full of wolves.
The future for them is a night without stars.
God help us all. All we can do out here is watch their apocalypse and try to avoid a similar fate ourselves. But as for the UK – it is doomed.
MarkL
Jan 24, 2009 - 5:20 am 10. RattlerGator:Canberra
I highly doubt if the U.K. is doomed. Destined for a sober reckoning? Surely. Everyone is.
I do like the discussion that I’m hearing more and more regarding Social Security — it is much easier these days for people to see the inherent Ponzi scheme within. The entire house of cards propping up Democrat propaganda is starting to tremble. That’s the way I see it.
Hope over fear, my ass. Look out for that approaching tidal wave, Barack Obama. And don’t let the retreating shore fool you. It is coming. And all the hope in the world tain’t gonna mean a damn thing.
Jan 24, 2009 - 6:09 am 11. jjmurphy:Excellent post. I don’t pay as much attention to Europe as I should. Thanks for the update. Scary stuff!
Wretchard – “There is no greater fanatic than an ivory tower fanatic; no more enthusiastic murderer than a former pacifist. I would rather take my chances with a grizzled sergeant of marines than one of these disciples of Hope who’s suddenly had a lightbulb come on in his head.”
Very well said! I’ve also always thought the liberal women will be the first to don the burka and proclaim how liberating it is.
A very good post
Jan 24, 2009 - 6:20 am 12. JavaThread:Wretchard wrote: “I hope and pray that we find ways to solve our problems rationally and gradually and not stick our heads in the sand until it all pent up and all kinds of red lines are crossed because we attended to things too late; because on the day that man becomes an animal, there is no animal worse than man.”
That rings true… the single greatest evolutionary advantage of man’s large brain is the ability to wage war.
Jan 24, 2009 - 6:53 am 13. Bart Hall (Kansas, USA):The social and political situation in Europe is of considerable concern, moreso for me since my in-laws are European.
My mother-in-law is a classic Dutch lefty, to the point of having some friends in Code Pink. That does not, however, extend to her attitudes towards the muzzies in the Netherlands. As a leftist she understands the existential threat they pose. What she doesn’t understand is the 3-to-1 assault ratio necessary to remove an entrenched enemy, and in particular she doesn’t realise that in terms of fighting-age men the Netherlands have *already* fallen below that ratio in relation to their muslim interlopers.
As a side note, I’m *not* speaking about Indonesian muslims in the Netherlands, who have been well integrated into that culture for generations because the Dutch ran Indonesia until 1946. Indonesian food and culture is as popular in the Netherlands as Mexican is in the States. The problem, to be direct is *Arabs.*
This is once again an issue of Wahhabism and other forms of militant islamic fundamentalism. See my recent comments beginning at #42 in ‘Invisible Men’ below for deep background on that phenomenon. Even though the Dutch have given a good account of themselves in Afghanistan (as compared specifically to the Germans), I’m not sure they’re prepared mentally or emotionally for the existential struggle not all that far ahead.
Jan 24, 2009 - 7:19 am 14. E. Nigma:Well, who among the Europeans is most willing to “wage war”, or at least excercise “martial virtues” in restoring the “peace”, and who has dealt most harshly with Muslim insurgents?
The Western Europeans should well be concerned about becoming “Eurabia”; it could happen. But I think they may invite in the Bear from the East to help them, and may never be able to get rid of him once he is there.
There was something said prior to WWI, paraphrasing;”The lights are going out all over Europe. We will not seem them lit again for many years.”
Jan 24, 2009 - 7:28 am 15. Bart Hall (Kansas, USA):The declining birth rates all over Europe (except France?), declining economic growth (GDP contraction?), the TOTAL dependence on imported gas and oil, the years of the overvalued Euro (especially with respect to buying Middle East and Russian oil) have created a false sense of prosperity. The coin is now flipped, and they now face hard economic decisions to avoid the road to bankruptcy.
The lights may not be going out in Europe in the way that nations were wrecked and the military carnage of World War I, but things may be broken enough to cause real political and social upheaval, and a true dimming of the lamp.
The US has its own problems, and won’t be there to bail them out this time; and shouldn’t even if it could
Different topic, different comment. Wretchard wrote: “There is no greater fanatic than an ivory tower fanatic; no more enthusiastic murderer than a former pacifist.” with which I concur.
Here in the States I suspect one later component of our now-unfolding Crisis will be the unleashing of long-pent Jacksonian fury against our own Wilsonians — exactly the population described by Wretchard above.
Given that Jacksonians outnumber Jeffersonians, Hamiltonians, and Wilsonians *combined,* the 3-to-1 assault ratio against Wilsonians entrenched in academia, media, and the bureaucracy … most definitely holds. I suspect it will be ugly, regardless of any additional mess in Europe.
Jan 24, 2009 - 7:32 am 16. Jim Nicholas:Wretchard #5
“I hope and pray that we find ways to solve our problems rationally and gradually and not stick our heads in the sand until it all pent up and all kinds of red lines are crossed because we attended to things too late; because on the day that man becomes an animal, there is no animal worse than man.”
How ominous and yet how true.
I think that the United States will come out of this financial crisis better off that any other major country, and therefore relatively even stronger as compared to others, because the democratic-capitalist system is still stronger here than anywhere else. However, I think it would be sticking our heads in the sand to enjoy the plight of those countries who have been lecturing us. Rather than change and model themselves after us, those countries will more likely resent us more and blame us for their greater weakness.
The weaker they become, the more internally unstable they will be, and I include India and China as well as western Europe. It will not be good for us to have failed states around the world, not just in the middle east. It seems to me that it is in our best interests, if not to help them directly, at least not to make things worse for them, such as by increasing barriers to free trade. Winston Churchill called the Marshall Plan the “least sordid act in history”, but the United States also did it for itself–to keep Europe from becoming socially unstable and a hotbed for communism.
Best wishes,
Jim
Jan 24, 2009 - 7:32 am 17. Meryl Yourish:Richard, those have been my thoughts about Europe for years. Every time I read another Mark Steyn column on how Europe is lost to Islam, I remember European history, and think that he’s just wrong. And I remember what every Jew grows up knowing almost before she can talk: First, they come for the Jews.
The outbreak of open, violent anti-Semitism in the last few months over the Gaza war is an ill omen for what comes next. Not that I think Europe will massacre the few Jews left there—but I do think that if the economy continues to cave, European Muslims will begin to understand why the Jews fled Europe for Israel.
Tribalism isn’t gone in Europe. It’s just behind closed doors. Mostly.
Jan 24, 2009 - 7:49 am 18. steveaz:I’m surprised by how much Europe’s state of affairs resembles the much-feared state it would have been in had America not bailed the continent out with the Marshall Plan after WWII.
Failing financial institutions, violent social upheaval, high risk of Russian (or other) influences dragging France, England, Germany and Spain leftward.
My question is, what did the Marshall plan buy us? 40 years of pretend peace? In 2009, one wonders if the same people the plan was designed to stymie haven’t, through sheer will and patience, undone it all.
And it all comes crumbling down now, when America is in no position to launch a Marshall Plan v.2.0. Point goes to the Soviets.
Jan 24, 2009 - 8:35 am 19. Mongoose:I know the EU well, and believe me, outside of the usual suspects, the average Europeans are sick of both the EU “colleagues” and sick of the push towards “Eurabria”. You just will not hear about it that often. There are cracks though – witness the Czechs.
All that is required is an intense crisis to ignite the kindling.
The financial mess, if it severe enough, maybe enough to topple the EU, but open rebellion against this invasion surely will kick it over. At least one hopes so, for the would be the best that could happen. Meryl is most likely right, but it may just be a strong man that comes in and uses the EU institutions and frameworks. If, let us hope he is not a Russian.
We should resist schadenfreude as we consider the European predicament. If we cannot deal with the crisis Obama represents, we will be in Europe’s shoes soon enough.
Jan 24, 2009 - 8:36 am 20. Mongoose:If, let = If so, let
Jan 24, 2009 - 8:37 am 21. cjm:the situation will be resolved by nations — now ungovernable — decomposing into smaller units where intrinsic social cohesion will hold things together.
how much of the unemployment problem will be eliminated by sending recent (and illegal) immigrants back to their countries of origin?
Jan 24, 2009 - 8:48 am 22. RWE:“Most interestingly, the Daily Telegraph quotes a Societe General strategist’s accusation that the failing British economy was like a Ponzi Scheme, without even the excuse of a subprime meltdown to blame for its self-inflicted woes.”
There is no better quote than I could provide than that of Lady Thatcher:
“The problem with socialism is that sooner or later you run out of other people’s money.”
Jan 24, 2009 - 9:06 am 23. NahnCee:1. IN America, at least, we’re looking at two civil wars: one of liberal vs. conservative, and one of everyone else vs. Muslims. The reaction of liberal America to 9/11 has demonstrated to a lot of people that the greater danger to our democracy are the anti-American progressives … not the Muslims who are watched very closely at least by their neighbors, if not by the police.
2. Instapundit had a link yesterday about the tipping point between those who pay taxes and those who demand things for free. http://chicagoboyz.net/archives/6677.html
“I think a threshold or tipping point exists in the ratio between the political power of those who pay taxes and those who consume taxes directly. After that tipping point is reached, those who pay taxes become the economic slaves of those who consume taxes.” Obviously, Europe and its EU has already reached that tipping point of having lost control of the way their tax money is collected and allocated, and there doesn’t seem to be much the citizenry can do about the Belgium bureaucrcy. This is also the path that Bush took (for military spending) and that Obama is now headed jubilantly down (free everything for black people).
3. Wouldn’t it be a hoot if Israel out-lasted Europe (including Germany)?
Jan 24, 2009 - 9:33 am 24. Josh:There is no greater fanatic than an ivory tower fanatic
Oh, I dunno about that. When dim bulbs manage to get a single, violent idea into their heads, that they don’t really even understand, just recite as an excuse for arbitrary expressions of the idea, that’s what scares me.
You like to think the ivory tower guy puts the power of intelligence behind his fanaticism and that makes him more dangerous? But no, the fanaticism is always at war with the intelligence, yes a rational intelligence is dangerous, but intelligence opens fanaticism to counter-arguments. Anyway ivory tower guys end up tripping over their own shoelaces.
Look at our society overall, are these problems of self-suicide issues of ivory tower thought – or non-thought? Seems the later to me.
Jan 24, 2009 - 9:36 am 25. NahnCee:It’s been my experience that the Ivory Tower guys really aren’t that smart. They’ve managed to memorize a lot of stuff and then regurgitate it back to their PhD committee but that is *not* the same thing as flexible creativity built on a bedwork of scientific knowledge or history.
If you’re a PhD in computer science or engineering, that’s one thing (and even then you might be so focused on your own preferred whirligig that you’re lamentable about everything else). But if you’re a PhD in women’s studies, black history, or French, quit preening and just get away from me.
I was reading something somewhere recently, too, that journalists aren’t that smart either; the author said to just read the corrections in the NY Times to get an idea of the intelligence level of both writers and editors in the MSM.
Jan 24, 2009 - 9:57 am 26. JAK:” When dim bulbs manage to get a single, violent idea into their heads, that they don’t really even understand, just recite as an excuse for arbitrary expressions of the idea, that’s what scares me.”
Where do you suppose those “dim bulbs” get their ideas? And where do you suppose the “ivory tower” gets their muscle?
Jan 24, 2009 - 10:46 am 27. andrewdb:I am guessing that our host is referring to intellectuals like Pol Pot and Ho Chi Minh. There are many other similar examples.
Jan 24, 2009 - 11:11 am 28. amr:Wretchard: “The very same people who only yesterday were the paragons of political correctness will be the most bloodthirsty of all” Yes, they have never had to live through really hard times. Forget the depression, they missed Carter’s stagflation or the oil crisis during Nixon’s presidency. They may eventually act like those who rioted during economic meetings of heads of state, but the more law and order types like me have guns and ammo and are a bit fed up with their childish antics; but I have faced ANSWER and their ilk when counter-demonstrating against their anti-Americanism in DC and they have been braver with words than actions.
I chuckle when I think of riots in the EU over the economic meltdown and see that American’s just mostly complain, don’t riot or probably don’t even write letters to their congressional delegation. There are really few if any consequences for those that have gotten us here; definitely none by the hands of citizens. We are definitely not the violent society we’re are made out to be or there would be some evil ones shot or at least tarred and feathered such as politians Frank and Dodd and some of the golden parachute Wall Street guys.
The Enron crew who ruined many lives managed to get bail and survive through their trial and convictions. If anything, the 90+% of African-Americans who have placed so much hope and confidence in Mr. Obama, may violently express their outrage if he doesn’t come through for them as they believe he should; that may be the situation waiting to happen rather than the cowardly PC crowd.
Jan 24, 2009 - 11:36 am 29. Dave:I think this is a good time to interject some comments as to what the Marshall Plan was and was not.
The European countries had their industrial base wrecked by wartime damage. In addition,
their reserves of precious metals had been looted. They had no way of issuing currency that would not tend to become worthless overnight. In that situation, recovery was for practical purposes impossible for a generation or two.
The essential elements of the Marshall Plan were to give their central banks reserves of US dollars (at that time convertible to gold by governments at the rate of $35 to the ounce) and let those dollars act as fractional reserves backing their currencies. It bears a passing resemblance to some of todays leveraged-out derivative schemes. Difference is that these Marshall-inspired derivatives (a) went to fill a measurable need instead of inflating portfolios and (b) had a single point of vulnerability, namely the value of the US dollar. That was not in question at that time. For that reason, the Marhsall Plan worked.
As to its being “the least sordid act in history”: That was said because conventional wisdom held that a dominant nation’s prosperity could be maintained only by keeping other nations less than prosperous
and in the position of mendicant. George Marshall put the lie to that.
Trouble since then is that whenever problems have arisen elsewhere we hear the cry of
“A Marshall Plan For The Philippines, Timbuktu
and Lower Slobbovia!” And whatever is attempted precludes those recipients from issuing a viable currency of their own, keeps them less than prosperous and in the position of mendicant.
Whatever ails the Yurps right now is not going to be cured by shipping US dollars to them. It may be—-or may not be—–that they will find it necessary to dynamite the Euro and restore national currencies.
If so, it may be—–or may not be—– advisable for us American taxpayers to soak ourselves and replicate what General Marshall did back then. We must wait and see.
Jan 24, 2009 - 11:40 am 30. steveaz:Good round up, Dave.
There was a psychological facet to the Marshall Plan, too (or so I was taught in HS history class).
One of its goals was to eliminate the allure that communism was said to have among the depressed citizens of post-war Europe. Marshall’s plan was to rebuild Europe’s major economies so that their governments were out of reach to the Red Brigades et al. The starkest example of this “psyche-out” effort used to be found in divided Berlin, where extra attention and dollars were expended just to make the lesson obvious.
With the fall of the Berlin Wall, and following the German Republic’s earnest efforts to equalize economic conditions in eastern Germany, Marshall’s psy-ops project is less evident today.
And now, with depression looming, the Russians manipulating Europe into energy dependency, and the rise of Islamic agitators within, it’s hard to account today for much of Marshall’s efforts.
As it always seems to be with governmentalist’s financial outlays. The “War on Poverty”, “National Healthcare,” the “War on Drugs,” and the CRA’s housing projects are all key exhibits.
In my opinion, Truman blinked after WWII. We should have just defeated Russia militarily, taken Siberia off their hands (think of all the real gulags that that would have prevented), liberated Georgia and the Baltics from the Kremlin, and then let Europe’s fickle democracies work out their own chronic problems on their own.
Hindsight’s 20:20, I know. But a little retrospective in a time of global economic distress might keep a new President from doing something monumentally stupid with my money.
Jan 24, 2009 - 12:02 pm 31. Bart Hall (Kansas, USA):Goose #19 — I agree completely. Most of my M-i-L’s comments about non-Indonesian muzzies in the Netherlands are simply not repeatable in anything resembling polite company.
Nahn #23 — Your notional 2nd “civil war” won’t happen. American muslims are in general integrating fairly well. They’re also sharp enough to understand that Cowboys & Muzzies really doesn’t appeal to them. They know how it turned out for the Apaches et al. There are also plenty of people, like me, who will stand — very well armed and tactically aware — to protect folks like our Jordanian grocer friend. He and his local muslim friends ‘get’ it about America. He’s one of us now.
As an addendum, a dear old friend of mine, USNA ‘46 (now deceased) was a professor of public administration at a major east coast university. He used to ask his students the following question:
“If you could start with just one of the following three things — money, media, or guns — which would you choose if you sought control?”
Through twenty years, not one of his students got the correct answer, guns, for with guns you could effectively seize control of the other two if sufficiently motivated.
The Left’s fatal problem in America is not only are they so narrow as to be unable to call an effective audible at the line of scrimmage … they don’t have the guns, and they don’t have the tactical awareness to respond in any effective manner to a genuine Jacksonian fury directed against them.
Jan 24, 2009 - 12:03 pm 32. programmer:Civil war between left and right??
Take a look at this page, especially scroll towards the bottom.
Notice: Large concentrations of leftists in cities.
Think JIT (just in time) inventory for food, gas, etc.
Think New Orleans after Katrina until the ‘cavalry’ arrived.
How long do you think a civil war would last?
Jan 24, 2009 - 12:47 pm 33. Boghie:Everyone targets the Great Depression as the model of the negative…
Could we not be ‘fighting the last war’.
Why should it be the private sector that gets clobbered this time. In fact, it is the public sector that could not even run a sustained balance or surplus in the greatest economic expansion in history.
How did the United States and much of Europe continuously run large annual deficits in decades of plenty?
Don’t answer that…
So, I ask, what happens if Wretchard’s postulation occurs – namely that Great Depression II is a Public Sector Depression? With FDR Jr. in charge.
Jan 24, 2009 - 1:15 pm 34. Ron Hardin:If it’s an intergenerational ponzi scheme, the fix is the same as the fix for social security, namely raise the retirement age until the demographics balance.
In a welfare state, that corresponds to raising payment criteria so fewer qualify.
Goods and services are supplied by workers, not recipients. More workers, fewer recipients, until the more workers as a group are willing to support the fewer recipients.
Jan 24, 2009 - 1:44 pm 35. Bob1:NahnCee @#23 said: “The reaction of liberal America to 9/11 has demonstrated to a lot of people that the greater danger to our democracy are the anti-American progressives.”
I’ve said before that we are actually involved in two wars, not one: a War Against the West (i.e., Islamic supremacism), and a War Within the West (democracy vs. socialism). We will not win the former unless we first win the latter.
Jan 24, 2009 - 1:47 pm 36. amr:Bart Hall: In a class my twin sons attended in college the professor asked who would seek a gun if there was anarchy; only my sons raised their hands. They will have a chance at survival if the stuff hits the fan.
Jan 24, 2009 - 3:07 pm 37. Derek:It was obvious back in October/November that this one was going to be nasty.
This time next year will entail a contemplation of two digit statistics. 1.5 percent in a few months adds up quickly over a year.
The nations that survive are the ones with social cohesion. Any, and I mean any existing faultline will be bloody.
So any nation that has either methodically torn apart the sources of cohesion, or introduced more faultlines by immigration or attempted social engineering will explode.
Any nation with a governmental system that isn’t representative and responsive in a way that can absorb and smother the faultlines will fail.
Will european countries be able to absorb the hundreds of thousands of greek, italian, spanish refugees fleeing the violence and turmoil that a collapsed nation entails? We don’t have to think back too far. Albania, Yugoslavia.
On a related note, recently a leftist politician in British Columbia proposed banning body armor except for the police. Why would anyone want body armor?
Derek
Jan 24, 2009 - 3:13 pm 38. 49erDweet:The “Ponzi Scheme” perpetrated on the Brits is more clearly explained in this fable from my blog dated in October,’08, which was based on an earlier post here by Yankee CowGirl.
In the parlance of that particular fable, our Anglo cousins are now “locked in the pen and running out of food”. We, on the other hand, are at the stage where we’ve discovered the pen’s cross rails are in place but the gates remain open. The question is, will we wake up in time?
Jan 24, 2009 - 3:58 pm 39. NahnCee:“How long do you think a civil war would last?”
If we allow the progressives to just throw their hands up and surrender, will anything have been accomplished? You would still have 49% of America hating the Constitution and teaching guilt-about-everything. Also, as we saw after Bush’s second election, if you have a large percentage of voters who REFUSE to accept the results of an election, it goes a long way towards nullifying the efforts of the legally-elected administration.
It seems to me that in an American civil war, there are about three choices: (1) kill all Democrats, (2) ship them off to be mentally reprogrammed a la China, or (3) cut the country in half and then everyone has to move to which-ever section fits with their belief system. Or maybe (4) just don’t ever allow anyone who’s ever been a registered Democrat to ever vote again.
Jan 24, 2009 - 4:27 pm 40. NahnCee:“There are also plenty of people, like me, who will stand — very well armed and tactically aware — to protect folks like our Jordanian grocer friend. He and his local muslim friends ‘get’ it about America. He’s one of us now.”
Bart, would you be prepared to stake the lives of your family on whether or not your Jordanian grocer would turn in his brother if he knew he was about to poison the water system? When I see Muslims in America routinely turning in terrorists that they know about (and NOT contributing money to terrorists overseas) then I’ll believe they’re one of us now. So far, that hasn’t happened that I’m aware of.
Jan 24, 2009 - 4:30 pm 41. 2@WwSsXx~`[tab] « The View from Alexandria:[...] Richard Fernandez writes of deepening troubles in Europe, which may split the European Union. In the comments section, he becomes reflective and issues a warning: “If things go to hell in a handbasket we will probably see a transformation in human behavior the likes of which would surprise those who’ve never seen trouble up close. The very same people who only yesterday were the paragons of political correctness will be the most bloodthirsty of all. Paradoxically, it will be those who have always understood human nature who will be the most tolerant and humane of all. There is no greater fanatic than an ivory tower fanatic; no more enthusiastic murderer than a former pacifist. I would rather take my chances with a grizzled sergeant of marines than one of these disciples of Hope who’s suddenly had a lightbulb come on in his head…. I hope and pray that we find ways to solve our problems rationally and gradually and not stick our heads in the sand until it all pent up and all kinds of red lines are crossed because we attended to things too late; because on the day that man becomes an animal, there is no animal worse than man.” [...]
Jan 24, 2009 - 4:36 pm 42. programmer:NahnCee suggests:
Or maybe (4) just don’t ever allow anyone who’s ever been a registered Democrat to ever vote again.
programmer responds:
NahnCee, what can I say. When you’re right, you’re right.
Jan 24, 2009 - 5:39 pm 43. Reloader449:Nahncee @#39 said: “(1) kill all Democrats, (2) ship them off to be mentally reprogrammed a la China, … Or maybe (4) just don’t ever allow anyone who’s ever been a registered Democrat to ever vote again.”
The Dems led by ZeroBamma are already planning to implement these three RE conservatives and republicans. They’re first to it, and are now better positioned to carry it out. Starting with skilled white males, rumor has it. Ayers & company determined the likely number who will ultimately “self-select” and live free or die: 25 million. The remaining resisters aka “deniers” today, in camps in the Southwest. Why else do you think ZeroBamma would need America to “volunteer” and why would he need an internal security force on par with the DoD?
Jan 24, 2009 - 9:25 pm 44. NahnCee:“They’re first to it, and are now better positioned to carry it out.”
Don’t be ridiculous. As long as they’re facing a “well-armed civilian militia” they aren’t in any position to do ANYthing about rounding anyone up. That’s as daft as the Dem’s claiming they were all being locked up for criticizing Bush, which just simply was not true.
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