Former Vice President Dick Cheney warned in an interview of a “high probability” that terrorist organizations will attempt a catastrophic attack, perhaps involving nuclear or biological weapons, on an American city. He also believed that the policy changes instituted by Barack Obama are making the enemy chances of success better. “I think they’re optimistic. All new administrations are optimistic. We were,” he said.
Cheney said “the ultimate threat to the country” is “a 9/11-type event where the terrorists are armed with something much more dangerous than an airline ticket and a box cutter – a nuclear weapon or a biological agent of some kind” that is deployed in the middle of an American city.
“That’s the one that would involve the deaths of perhaps hundreds of thousands of people, and the one you have to spend a hell of a lot of time guarding against,” he said.
“I think there’s a high probability of such an attempt. Whether or not they can pull it off depends whether or not we keep in place policies that have allowed us to defeat all further attempts, since 9/11, to launch mass-casualty attacks against the United States.”
If Cheney’s language was dramatic, the setting for the comments was almost bizarrely pedestrian. His office is in a non-descript suburban office building in McLean, Va., in a suite that could just as easily house a dental clinic. The office is across the hall from a quick-copy store. The door is marked by nothing except a paper sign, held up by tape, saying the unit is occupied by the General Services Administration.
Cheney’s assessment contrasts markedly with the picture recently painted by Glenn Carle in a Washington Post article. Carle, formerly with the CIA, believed that the threats to the US were really overblown.
I spent 23 years in the CIA. I drafted or was involved in many of the government’s most senior assessments of the threats facing our country. I have devoted years to understanding and combating the jihadist threat. … We do not face a global jihadist “movement” but a series of disparate ethnic and religious conflicts involving Muslim populations, each of which remains fundamentally regional in nature and almost all of which long predate the existence of al-Qaeda. …
Osama bin Laden and his disciples are small men and secondary threats whose shadows are made large by our fears. Al-Qaeda is the only global jihadist organization and is the only Islamic terrorist organization that targets the U.S. homeland. … No other Islamic-based terrorist organization, from Mindanao to the Bekaa Valley to the Sahel, targets the U.S. homeland, is part of a “global jihadist movement” or has more than passing contact with al-Qaeda. … Al-Qaeda threatens to use chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear weapons, but its capabilities are far inferior to its desires. Even the “loose nuke” threat, whose consequences would be horrific, has a very low probability. For the medium term, any attack is overwhelmingly likely to consist of creative uses of conventional explosives.
The threat from Islamic terrorism is no larger now than it was before Sept. 11, 2001. Islamic societies the world over are in turmoil and will continue for years to produce small numbers of dedicated killers, whom we must stop. U.S. and allied intelligence do a good job at that; these efforts, however, will never succeed in neutralizing every terrorist, everywhere.
Why are these views so starkly at odds with what the Bush administration has said since the beginning of the “Global War on Terror”? This administration has heard what it has wished to hear, pressured the intelligence community to verify preconceptions, undermined or sidetracked opposing voices, and both instituted and been victim of procedures that guaranteed that the slightest terrorist threat reporting would receive disproportionate weight — thereby comforting the administration’s preconceptions and policy inclinations.
Here then, are two apparently conflicting assessments of the dangers faced by the United States. But their differences are more subtle than they seem. First, Carle doesn’t deny the existence of terrorists, nor does he claim that there will never be another 9/11-sized attack again. He says, “the threat from Islamic terrorism is no larger now than it was before Sept. 11, 2001. Islamic societies the world over are in turmoil and will continue for years to produce small numbers of dedicated killers, whom we must stop. U.S. and allied intelligence do a good job at that; these efforts, however, will never succeed in neutralizing every terrorist, everywhere.” What Carle denies is the existence of vast, organized Jihadi conspiracy in the Western sense. Some literature from within the intelligence community has suggested that long-term, low-level “cognitive warfare” represents a kind of threat that the CIA and other Washington bureaucracies are not equipped to recognize. They filter those elements of warfare out, and say, ‘right, the enemy is a rag-tag bunch with a low technical capability and therefore we need not fear him’. Therefore it is possible that intelligence analysts can underestimate a threat, simply because it comes in a guise they are not inclined to recognize.
A close reading of Cheney’s interview shows that while he believes it is likely that terrorists will make an attempt with WMD type weapons, he offers no fixed assessment of the likelihood that it will succeed. He says, “I think there’s a high probability of such an attempt. Whether or not they can pull it off depends whether or not we keep in place policies that have allowed us to defeat all further attempts, since 9/11, to launch mass-casualty attacks against the United States.” Essentially both Carle and Cheney believe that more attacks will be made on America, but Carle seems to think the chances of their success are inherently slim while Cheney believes the likelihood of their success is greater under an Obama administration than an unspecified value before Obama’s latest policy efforts.
But what is the true value of that probability? Its magnitude is really at the core of any difference between Carle’s and Cheney’s point of view. I doubt it can be quantified, except in subjective terms. At any rate, it is probably hard to do without a continuous assessment of specific enemy operations in progress. In this case an assessment based on general capabilities is not that helpful. I don’t think the probabilities can be judged on general principles. We have to know the specifics to make a judgment. If you asked someone how likely it was that a score of men armed with box-cutters could take down two of the largest buildings in the world in the middle of New York City, most would say that the probability was very low. If you asked a naval expert what were the chances that eight battleships would be sunk by an untried weapons system in the middle of the most heavily defended harbor in the Pacific, he would say the probability was low. If you asked Singapore Governor Thomas Shenton in on December 6, 1941 how likely it was that 30,000 men on bicycles could defeat 100,000 British and Commonwealth troops in a few weeks and take the Gibraltar of the East within two months he would have laughed in your face. In each case the probability of success was low based on a consensus view of capabilities, but on the basis of the specific details of the plans, the probabilities were quite high. In other words, we can’t assess the chances of a WMD attack in the abstract. We have to know what they are up to before deciding whether it will work or not.
But if the probabilties of a successful attack are uncertain, the consequences of a terrorist success would be less so. Even without the Cheney warning, a new September 11 sized attack would have been devastating to the Obama administration. What Cheney is doing is upping the political ante. From a political point of view, Cheney is ensuring that Obama had better make pretty damned sure another mass casualty attack doesn’t happen, or face an electoral apocalypse. That doesn’t answer any of the questions about what actually will happen in the future. The sad fact is that nobody can really predict that. We can only do our best based on imperfect information and see what happens.
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163 Comments
1. Alex:However, Wretchard, can we not make reasonable assumptions based on past examples and known patterns of behavior? To take your historical examples: A handful of men with a rented truck almost collapsed one of the world trade centers back in the 1990’s. That should have alerted people to the fact that the towers were a terrorist target and that mass casualties were the terrorist goal.
The idea of using airplanes as kamikaze weapons should have at least been considered. Before Pearl Harbor there was Taranto Harbor in 1940 where the Royal Navy proved aircraft attacking Battleships in harbor could be quite effective. Before Singapore there had been fort Eban Emanel in Belgium – a modern fort with every possible defence captured by a handful of commandoes in gliders. Surely there were other examples in history of small forces running rings around larger ones. The probability of a land invasion outflanking their defences should have been part of the planning for Singapore from the start, especially since it had been quite clear from the 1930’s on that the Royal Navy did not have the numbers to protect all British posessions.
As for mass causlty terror attacks on the US using WMD’s, has that not been the stated goal of al-qaida (and more importantly, Iran) from the start? At a bare minimum, the US should make it clear by actions, (renewed nuclear testing, for example) that such attacks will trigger massive retaliation. Instead we are getting the opposite – a lack of testing which makes our arsenal unreliable, and a political leadership which clearly demonstrates that it has no stomach to use nuclear weapons in any circumstance. If I was an Iranian Mullah, I would not fear a country which does nothing when Iranian weapons kill their soldiers openly.
Feb 4, 2009 - 1:09 pm 2. Mark:Via Wikipedia:
“In casual usage, the label “prisoner’s dilemma” may be applied to situations not strictly matching the formal criteria of the classic or iterative games; for instance, those in which two entities could gain important benefits from cooperating or suffer from the failure to do so, but find it merely difficult or expensive, not necessarily impossible, to coordinate their activities to achieve cooperation.”
Up until they won the election, critics of homeland security found it expensive, politically speaking, to cooperate with the Bush administration regarding security. Those critics, now administrators, have the opportunity to cooperate rather than betray their fellow prisoners. But the netroots supporters of the administrators believe their own rhetoric that the danger lies in the political opponent. There is still a cost in cooperation for the administrators. VP Cheney is just trying to helping some people understand that there’s more benefit to cooperation than ongoing betrayal.
Feb 4, 2009 - 1:17 pm 3. EdGi:Carle’s description of the suppression of contrary assesments in the “evil” Bush administration is in fact a description of what his croud did in the Clinton administration. Saying the terroriat offensive of the ’70s was not directed against America, or organized, is like saying the sinking of battlehips in Pearl Harbor is not directed at the US because they didn’t hit DC. Another CIA “Slam Dunk” boob who will get us all dead.
Feb 4, 2009 - 1:23 pm 4. wretchard:The point I probably failed to clearly make, is that we need more specific intelligence. This is the only unambiguously good thing to collect in the face of uncertainty. We cannot know too much about the enemy. Intelligence cannot really tell you anything about the future but it is enormously useful in helping you recognize the present or unfolding that much sooner. And then it is a question of having a decision cycle quick enough to block what is ongoing or in the offing.
Which takes us back to the Cheney interview. His major point is that Obama is shutting down vital sources of information. As I’ve written before, one of the major critiques of pre-September 11 intelligence is that the US could not hold prisoners in custody, but instead had to job it out to foreign intelligence agencies who provided more brutality than information. So whatever the true probability of p of enemy success is, then Cheney’s claim is that that probability will increase because we are losing information. Of course, if you believe that p is passingly small, then you are not worried about going back to rendition, because it won’t make any material difference if the danger can be ignored. Carle seems to believe that the danger is no greater than the pre-September 11 period. You may argue that is bad enough.
But there is another element which the Cheney interview doesn’t touch on. Intelligence is of little value unless it is fed into a response system driven by a rapid decision cycle. One of implicit critiques of the new Obama policies is that it is comparatively reliant on diplomacy, which has long response times. Obama is not a “cowboy”; but in situations when another party is pulling a gun on you, the gunslinger is what you want.
Of course, others may argue that it is better on average to be less reactive because whatever tactical advantages the cowboy obtains are negated by the antipathy he generates. Therefore while the diplomat may get spat on a few times, in the end he walks out the monocle, glass of champagne and the pretty girl. Assuming of course, he isn’t killed.
Feb 4, 2009 - 1:24 pm 5. Anton:“The threat from Islamic terrorism is no larger now than it was before Sept. 11, 2001.”
Well, Mr. Carle, I would say that the threat of Islamic Terrorism was pretty darned high on Sept. 11, 2001.
I am inclined to go with Cheney on this one. Just because your opponent hasn’t landed a punch recently is no reason to drop your guard in the middle of a fist-fight. The “they are just dirty, silly religious nuts” mentality was what brought us to Sep 11. There was a long string of attacks, some successful, some not, before that date that shouls have showed that they meant business and were persistent.
The other idea that infects the intel community seems to be that once a madman subscribes to one organization he cannot work for/with another. This isn’t the NFL, teams do not sign players to exclusive contracts. Many of the AQ players in Iraq were recruited by the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and further afield. I think of the local organizations as “farm clubs” for AQ (for want of a better analogy).
Optimism is one thing, thinking that the world is all rainbows and unicorns is sheer madness.
Feb 4, 2009 - 1:25 pm 6. dan:it’s a good thing the washington post exists to screen out of consideration fools whose credentials might otherwise trick the credulous into relying on b*llshit opinions.
that’s right – a jirga just sat down one day in the kush and thought Well we’re not doing anything else let’s go fly planes into those buildings i saw in that goddamn ghostbusters movie.
the level of analysis publicly disclosed by the CIA – especially that Robert Baer twit – is so depressing as to suggest a giant disinformation operation intended to lull our enemies into defenselessness. no one could possibly construe the utter savage pedarastic incompetence of the islamic world’s unfortunate inhabitants as capable of such coordination as the Borg that threatens to subvert our very political system (if only by its own hysterics (i’m looking at you, commies).
it is a cover for a grander operation – one which, say, decides to offer its friendly hand of cooperation the day after it bribes a former province to kick out the utterly unimposing US airbase… itself an unnecessary payment since that former province is actually a current province run by a high level lackey of the grandest conspiracy of the 20th century.
bottom line is cheney’s obviously right and the eloi incapable of recognizing the morlocks will be among the first vaporized. i can only i’m far enough away from the first blast or two to relish – at least for a minute – that beautiful, much-too-long-delayed silence.
Feb 4, 2009 - 1:28 pm 7. Mike Sylwester:Cheney discredited himself in 2003 when he proclaimed his certainty that Saddam Hussein’s regime was hiding an active WMD program. His assessments about Al Qaeda’s WMD threats might be correct now, but few people will rely on his judgment. Someone with a better reputation will have to state the same assessment.
The Bush Administration severely disrupted and discouraged radical Moslems. Essentially, the Bush Administration won the Global War on Terror in relation to the USA. Moslem terrorists still are active, but they no longer fantasize that the USA will be defeated or even intimidated by any terror attacks they might be able to launch against the USA. Attacking the USA is obviously futile and much too dangerous.
Moslem terrorists now are focused on organizing a WMD attack on Israel. That is a plausible goal for them. That is a huge problem for the USA, but we can recognize it to be a threat against an ally’s homeland and population, not against our own homeland and population.
A decade ago, there was a serious threat against the USA’s homeland and population. We recognized that threat and defeated it.
Moslems now recognize our military capabilities that threaten them. They saw our military capabilities in Afghanistan and then in Iraq.
Feb 4, 2009 - 1:38 pm 8. Brock:I think VPOTUS is in a better position to judge “all possible threats” than a guy living in a CIA information silo. Cheney would have been briefed on the terrorist ops prevented. Hopefully now that Obama has access to the same level of information he can reach the same conclusions. Talking softly on Al-Arabiya isn’t necessarily a sign that the USA has gone soft in the shadow-war as well; just look at continued rendition and Guantanamo.
Just the same, I will feel more comfortable working a good distance from major urban centers during Obama’s first term. I’ve recently applied for a good job far from anywhere in particular, and I hope I get it.
Feb 4, 2009 - 1:44 pm 9. joe buzz:Thanks dan, I really needed the belly laugh induced by your second line.
Feb 4, 2009 - 1:47 pm 10. Vikingstar:Exactly what level of organization and technology does a group need to conduct a successful WMD attack? In the 1940’s during WW2, the United States and Britian started experimenting with anthrax by growing it in 5 gallon milk jugs. In the early 1950’s the US Navy staged several successful exercises with a spore similar to anthrax by taking a small boat, putting commercially available paint sprayers on it, and cruising back and forth along the Virginia coastline during the evening when there was a sea breeze–tests demostrated that if the spore had been anthrax, several Virginian cities would have suffered significant levels of casualities
Feb 4, 2009 - 2:04 pm 11. Roderick Reilly:(information taken from the book “The Biology of Doom”–I don’t have it in front of me, or else I’d quote page numbers and publisher).
The point is that this was done with 1940’s and 50’s technology. What could a small group of dedicated people do now in the early 21st century? You don’t need a large organization or massive technology anymore, which is a lesson we should have learned by heart by now.
I think that our enemies (which is another lesson we should have learned–we have enemies) were afraid to act during the Bush administration. I don’t think they’re afraid anymore.
The truth has an annoying habit of positing itself somewhere between two points of view. What this Carle guy is not entirely without merit, and I speak as one who believes in dealing with terrorists aggressively, relentlessly, and ruthlessly. I also don’t believe we ever needed a dept. of homeland security, since I would have preferred that the original security organizations should have been made do to their jobs better.
I never thought of Al Qaeda as being particularly large and effective, but rather I have always thought that its power lay in our complacency. If they are not as big a threat as envisioned, then squash them like bugs while they’re still “weak.” So the problem doesn’t lie in whether or not terrorists are weak or strong, but in using one’s argument to either 1) do little or nothing about the problem, or 2) use an exagerrated threat to create unecessary bureaucracies and security restrictions on society.
Feb 4, 2009 - 2:05 pm 12. EdGi:Dan, good description of the Langley crowd, sadly though, it is proably a 9/11 assesment they fully agree with and will not see the sacasm. Scary, but most of the crowd believe they are superior to the “dirty” smilers, and, scarier plus, actually believe a leg puke with a parking spot, listed phone and office at Langley is covert to the Brotherhood or the apparatus.
Feb 4, 2009 - 2:07 pm 13. Gordon:The main reason 9/11 was successful with a bunch of box cutters was because in three of the planes the passengers thought it was a routine hijacking and had been conditioned to cooperate.
The question is not is AQ a global ‘organization’ with a chief, directors, divisions and branches, etc. It is a distributed force of like-minded people, some quite competent, others simply willing to commit suicide. But–the targets are also distributed and great damage can be done in many places by a few people in a low-tech manner, eg crashing a truck load of chlorine gas in a suitable place; perhaps blowing one of many relatively small, under-maintained dams and flooding a suburb. No need for an ‘organization’, just some fanatics united by their religion and hatred.
Just today a woman was arrested in Iraq. Her colleagues were raping women, then she would counsel them to erase the shame via a suicide bombing.
Even a fairly small disaster is worth much sensational publicity. Cheney’s right–we can’t relax; smooth and charm won’t get it.
Feb 4, 2009 - 2:17 pm 14. Roderick Reilly:To expand on what I said in #11, I do believe we are “over-secured” in terms of having what I believe some are calling “security theater,” or something like that, where the overbearing measures at airports and other terror-inspired ordinances, laws and policies are simply there for show, to the detriment of both real security and citizen freedom and convenience.
The 19 men on 9/11 used box cutters and mace because serious measures were already in place to make it very difficult to get ecven one gun on board, so something was working well. Arming some members of the cockpit crew makes eminently more sense then periodically strip-searching grandma, and making everyone go through onerous and stupid security lines, taking off their shoes, etc.
Aggressively crushing and annihilating terror cells while they are still small and relatively weak as a routine matter of policy beats having to invade a terror-sponsoring nation because the problem was allowed to fester to the point of crisis. I prefer having Orwell’s “rough men” out there 24/7, and out of sight and mind of both the media and us ordinary citizens.
The Carle’s of the world can have their point of view if they intend to act aggressively on their knowledge that, if terror groups are not a big threat, then they can be easily defeated by aggressive, overwhelming action. The problem is, they want to treat terrorists as ordinary violent criminals and bring them to trial, rather than just obliterate them in place.
Feb 4, 2009 - 2:18 pm 15. RWE:“Osama bin Laden and his disciples are small men and secondary threats whose shadows are made large by our fears.”
Okay, if he is saying that OBL’s and his henchmen are a bunch of losers who could cross thread a bowling ball and would not know what to do with world domination if it was handed to them on a silver platter, I agree. I also agree that Nazi Germany had a very low probability of conquering the world, that Imperial Japan did not plan to actually invade the US, and that the USSR was headed for destruction ultimately. That does not mean that Axis Powers and Soviets should have been ignored.
The only thing worse than losing would be to lose to a bunch of losers. Look around the world and you don’t see the equivalent of the Aliens from War of The Worlds or Independence Day, but it does not take that level of threat to cause some big problems. Likewise, although the local sheriff’s dept is no doubt outnumbered by the number of criminals they face, I don’t think they are going to be wiped out – but that does not mean that I will walk unconcerned through certain neighborhoods or fail to grab a gun if I hear a suspicious noise in the middle of the night.
I say again – the attack of 9/11/01 did not succeed mainly due to the schemes of some nuts in Afghanistan but rather from the attitudes we had developed in the U.S. Four Boy Scouts with .22 single shot rifles could have stopped the attacks dead cold, but our national philosophy was against even that level of protection.
Feb 4, 2009 - 2:19 pm 16. whiskey:Well, first let us consider how hard it is for AQ or allied groups to acquire nuclear weapons.
That moron Carle thinks that this requires AQ to actually construct nukes or bio/chem weapons, a tall order that they cannot accomplish.
However, they don’t need to build them, merely obtain them from failed state Pakistan, where AQ has massive influence and many allies, or buy them from North Korea, who will sell to anyone and has no fear of US response, protected by China’s nuclear umbrella and their own nukes capable of reaching the US West Coast, or Iran, which would love to attack the US by proxy and has done so at Khobar Towers precisely when Clinton was apologizing and offering carrots.
That’s three likely sources, of which Pakistan is the most probable, therefore it is very high in likelihood that AQ will GET a nuke if it wants one.
Next, what are their intentions?
Carle being a moron, thinks that the world revolves around the US. It does not, Attacking the US with mass casualties is a sure-fire, proven way for a small leader to become a major one, with lots of men, money, and arms flowing to him, allowing him an army created out of volunteers in which he can take over a country, say Saudia Arabia, that is weak and rich. This has been Osama’s goal from the beginning, Zawahari’s wrt Egypt.
Kill lots of Americans, raise a Jihad army, take over your native country as the new king. It’s an old, old tactic, dating back to Mohammed, and very effective. It’s not about us, its always about them, and their ambitions. Mohammed as the model (defeated in exile in Medina, raising a conquering army) makes this culturally powerful to EVERY Muslim. As well as the riches he and his followers got by conquest.
The very weakness and inter-necine struggles of Muslim society makes this more rather than less likely. Carle looks at the modern world and sees no Muslim Werhmacht or Soviet Red Army. He fails to see the ability of Muslim raiders with nukes, the ultimate car-bomb as re-invigorating the ability of small raiders to topple big societies.
He’s stuck in the world of 1944.
Finally, what is Obama betting on? Cheney did raise the stakes, and Obama has seen him by calling for the elimination of 80% of our nuclear arsenal.
It is revealing to look at the reactions to 9/11.
Very quickly fault-lines developed. Yes, mostly on Gender. The signal change in Western society is that men and women spend most of their time single, and so the ruthless status-based compeition for mates (particularly among men) and female hierarchies (among women) makes PC, a hyper-form of status competition, strong beyond belief.
After 9/11, the cries of “why do they hate us” and the call to be loved to forestall further attacks came from (single) women and deeply feminized institutions roiled by PC-status wars: colleges, literary scene (Mailer, Sontag, etc), feminists, Liberal politicians, and so on.
The calls for revenge, punishment, fear to create deterrence came from blue collar men, married women, suburban marrieds, small business owners, independent professionals, and others out of the endless PC-status game and status wars. [Married women don't care much if they are thought by peers to have the "coolest" opinions and "hottest" accessories. They have their husbands and kids to think of first.]
Obama’s bet, and it is an overt bet, is that demographically, the US has tipped to enough single women, men dominanted by PC-status concerns in competing for women, status-dominated professionals (Educators, lawyers, government workers, media people, advertisers/marketers, etc.) that the response to NYC getting nuked will be an over-drive of “WHY DO THEY HATE US?” A Spanish style hyper-surrender (or UK one) to terror in the form of abject groveling (ala PC rituals) and the desire to be loved.
HE may in fact be right, I would not discount that reaction among the PC crowd over-riding the non-PC crowd.
Of course, the enemy gets a vote too — as Spain and the UK has found out, this only encourages MORE terror, and it’s likely follow on attacks will be the result of Obama’s PC groveling.
Producing a war of survival inside American society echoing that of Israeli society. The Yuppie status-war type strategy of being “loved” and very limited responses to attacks by the mostly single female-yuppie men-status war professionals represented by Olmert and Lvini has produced a rush to survival in the form of Netanyahu. There is probably a majority of support for the idea of using nukes to wipe out most of Iran for pure survival at this point.
Obama’s bet is likely to pay off in the short run. In the long run, it’s likely to cost more cities, and the result would be some sort of impeachment followed by an American response of killing half the world’s Muslims (at least) and expelling all the ones here in a pure survival mode.
And the society that will result will be profoundly unfriendly to the status-wars group, based as it would have to be on pure survival and the ruthless suppression of any threat, through mass killing.
The popularity of these shows on cable where the hosts do awful things and eat disgusting stuff to survive in the wilderness ought to be a clue — survial mode is incompatible with the good life.
Feb 4, 2009 - 2:22 pm 17. Alexis:I think it is important not to repeat the mistakes of the fictional Wersgorix Empire from The High Crusade
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_High_Crusade
For someone who has read that novel, Mr. Carle’s complacency is very familiar.
Feb 4, 2009 - 2:25 pm 18. Cannoneer No. 4:We’re going to miss that utterly unimposing US airbase, dan.
Feb 4, 2009 - 2:29 pm 19. Mike Sylwester:Vikingstar (@ 10):
In the early 1950’s the US Navy staged several successful exercises with a spore similar to anthrax by taking a small boat, putting commercially available paint sprayers on it, and cruising back and forth along the Virginia coastline … What could a small group of dedicated people do now in the early 21st century?
If you just want to kill lots of Americans, there are various ways to do it. For example, you can explode dynamite in many crowded football stadiums.
Al Qaeda thought that the 9/11 attack would intimidate the USA and eventually would affect the USA’s foreign policy for the benefit of Moslems. In that regard, the 9/11 attack back-fired terribly.
Let’s suppose for the sake of argument that Al Qaeda now is able to launch an anthrax attack in the USA. What would be the benefit for Al Qaeda or for the Moslem world? The fantasy of such a benefit has disappeared, leaving an acute fear of the USA’s vengeance.
If Al Qaeda can launch an anthrax attack, then it will launch the attack against Israel or even against Denmark.
Feb 4, 2009 - 2:40 pm 20. Willie G:#19 Mike Sylwester – “Let’s suppose for the sake of argument that Al Qaeda now is able to launch an anthrax attack in the USA. What would be the benefit for Al Qaeda or for the Moslem world? The fantasy of such a benefit has disappeared, leaving an acute fear of the USA’s vengeance.”
Sorry, but you’re overlooking one salient point: For Jihadis, the road to paradise is paved with dead infidels. It matters not that he and his family will die as a result. Their entry into the arms of Allah is assured.
This is why the concept of Mutually Assured Destruction doesn’t work with religious fanatics the way that it did with a more self-interested USSR.
These people cannot be reasoned with, though you’re welcome to try – just not with me or my family as bargaining chips. Wager your own life if you must.
Feb 4, 2009 - 2:58 pm 21. blert:The brilliant defense minister for Malaya completely predicted the outcome, including the invasion beach, the route of conquest, and the locations of the significant battles prior to the IJA’s arrival at Singapore and the inevitability of it’s surrender. ( the IJA could cut off all of the water and the big guns could never be brought round to face the Japanese attack.)
His ideas were roundly ridiculed by his British military masters.
Lieutenant-General Arthur Percival was an ass…
BTW, the Australians figured out that the British had a hopeless situation and stopped Churchill from using Anzac forces in Singapore…
The British were forced to let the Anzacs go to the Eqypt and send their own blood into the death trap.
Feb 4, 2009 - 2:58 pm 22. Doug:I can see Microsoft scrambling now to develop the obvious follow-up to Flight Simulator:
Feb 4, 2009 - 3:04 pm 23. jjmurphy:Atta Boy Football
The the object of the game is to perfectly co-ordinate and carry out the deployment and simultaneous detonation of 10 lethal bombs in 10 NFL Stadiums across the country.
“What Carle denies is the existence of vast, organized Jihadi conspiracy in the Western sense”
As Gordon mentioned above, the Jihad is not an organized world-wide organization. It is a diverse set of people throughout the world who all share the same belief and eventual goal – the supremacy of Islam over the infidels by any means necessary. Small groups all work towards this goal. It appears to be working quite sell for them. With Obama signaling that diplomacy and no-harsh interrogation will be the new order, he just made it that much easier for all of them, and the governments that support them.
I am glad I don’t live in or downwind from an major U.S. city.
Feb 4, 2009 - 3:15 pm 24. Cannoneer No. 4:whiskey, have you seen The Greatest Betrayal in History?
The Culture War in America is between your single women, men dominanted by PC-status concerns in competing for women, status-dominated professionals (Educators, lawyers, government workers, media people, advertisers/marketers, etc.) and your blue collar men, married women, suburban marrieds, small business owners, independent professionals, and others out of the endless PC-status game and status wars.
I have been describing the side I want to be on in the Culture War as a coalition of entrepreneurial frontiersmen, Cultural Revolutionaries, American Exceptionalists, libertarians, people who want to be left the hell alone, Gulchers, Constitutionalists, Appleseeds, bitter clingers, Christians, and Patriots, but come to think of it, most of those types don’t play PC games either.
Your folks and my folks are the natural constituency of a Politically Incorrect Political Party.
Feb 4, 2009 - 3:15 pm 25. ag:Re.: “Four Boy Scouts with .22 single shot rifles could have stopped the attacks dead cold, but our national philosophy was against even that level of protection”. Even one would do. Provided that he shot “Jamie Gorelik”
Feb 4, 2009 - 3:40 pm 26. kbdabear:John Mohammed and Lee Malvo certainly wouldn’t be considered by analysts as any more than a loser and a psycho kid. Yet using nothing more than a cheap .22 rifle and a beater Chevy, these two terrorized everyone from Baltimore to Richmond for 3 weeks in 2002. They only got caught because the kid got cocky and kept goading the police. We had the “best experts” on the cable news nightly profiling people who had no resemblance to the two killers.
I’m not all that comforted by the opinions of “experts” who say our enemies lack sophistication.
Don’t forget another “expert” former CIA agent who said in July of 2001 that the threat of Islamic terrorism was overblown to nearly non-existent. That agent was Larry Johnson.
Feb 4, 2009 - 3:56 pm 27. Whitehall:Whiskey’s analysis of a jihadist leader’s motivations is spot-on. I had long thought that OBL’s real ambition was to be the next King of Arabia after disposing the House of Saud.
America’s culture war is also well discribed.
A question for all – why is it so much of the public output of the CIA sounds like disinformation? Is it because it is so lame and out of sync with common sense? If so, who are they trying to confuse?
Or are they just lacking in judgment?
Feb 4, 2009 - 4:07 pm 28. RWE:#19 “What would be the benefit for Al Qaeda or for the Moslem world?”
What was the benefit of the attacks of 9/11/01? Perhaps they underestimated our response – given the feckless diplomacy of the Clinton years that would not be a surprise – but what would be the benefit in the first place? You obviously need to read the Lee Harris piece on that subject, in which he explains that the attack was a symbolic act by a fantasy ideology. However, I don’t recommend his book “Civilization and Its Enemies”, that sprang from that piece; Harris eventually gets lost there.
#26 It was not a “cheap .22” like a Ruger 10/22. It was a .223 rifle, quite expensive and a better sniper weapon than an M-16.
Whitehall #27: Call it Group Think, call it not making waves, call it the Amarillo Paradox, call it bowing to the inevitable, but I have observed that people in large organizations will go along even when they think it wrong, or will “get with the program” without thinking about it. When the CIA failed to spot the nuclear tests by Pakistan and India in the 90’s the explanation was that the analysts heard what the leadership of those countries were saying, but given Clinton’s example in the US they decided that they were lying.
But I think it is just plain old laziness. Think how much harder it must be to divine the actions and identify the locations of Al Queda than to expostulate on the possibilities of war between Pakistan and India, the probable weapons that are being shipped by the Russians to Lower Slobbia based on the size of the crates employed, and annual shoe production in Cuba. I have taught a course for CIA analysts and they are just like any other government employee. They want to get done and go home at the end of the day and not have to explain why they screwed up. The War on Terror makes that harder.
Feb 4, 2009 - 4:39 pm 29. ricpic:Cheney loves America. You don’t have to agree with him on everything politically to see that.
Obama is, at best, neutral toward America. Or as he would spell it, Amerika.
When you combine that with the fact that he is sympatico with the muslim world, you get a situation in which he, Obama, has self imposed blinders on regarding a mortal threat to America by muslims.
Following the next attack I fully expect him NOT to order a military response.
Whether or not that will precipitate armed insurrection in our streets is anybody’s guess.
Feb 4, 2009 - 4:42 pm 30. buddy larsen:Putting Leon Panetta at CIA was a signal that Obama wants future political protection from the CIA. Why?
Feb 4, 2009 - 4:55 pm 31. Storm-Rider:I have no doubt that the Byzantine Empire had a cadre of appeasing intellectuals like Glenn Carle who reassured their people that the Islamist threat was not of great concern. If you want an intelligent presentation of what we really face, i.e.: World War IV, listen to Norman Podhoretz – the common sense realist and anti-Carle.
http://www.learnoutloud.com/Catalog/Religion-and-Spirituality/Islam/Norman-Podhoretz-World-War-IV/26682
http://www.hoover.org/multimedia/uk/13710797.html
Yuri Bezmenov has warned us about Glenn Carle and the Marxist-Socialist Left, i.e.: the modern Democratic Party leadership. They have something in common with our Islamist enemies: Hatred of the Judeo-Christian values which underpin American law and civilization. This theophobic hatred of American values is what brings these two ideologies into common cause, and this emerging alliance gives realistic hope to the Islamists that they can pull off another Byzantine takedown; and with a some assistance it can be done.
rodgers.smartvideochannel.com/media/PlayVideo.aspx?cid=4F582650AD594F4E88AC23D487F9CAC9
Feb 4, 2009 - 5:18 pm 32. buddy larsen:ricpic @ 29; Following the next attack I fully expect him NOT to order a military response
Listening to him the last few days increasingly adamantly talk down the economy –even as credit-loosening signs are trying to appear here and there and the indexes appear to be holding above the November lows, IOW signs that a little confidence or abated gloom might be a real and freebie stimulus package –it becomes clear that he’s worried that a bottom may be seen before his stim bill can be passed, and thus he’s all out with the doom & gloom scare talk. Many have noticed this, Teddy Weisberg waxed roth on it today from the floor of the NYSE. It’s also clear after the last two days of rhetoric that he’s not going to comp with the tax cuts, but is instead going for the full deal with his counted votes.
Long/short i agree with storm rider that several diverse totalitarian impulses are driving into what they see as propitious but temporary conditions. If so, SHTF may be right on top of us. I know I ain’t sleeping so good.
Feb 4, 2009 - 5:43 pm 33. davod:Obama’s appeasement policy towards the Muslims will encourage more ratbags to join the Jihadh.
Feb 4, 2009 - 5:51 pm 34. Mongoose:Buddy: well if he is smart, it would be to blow smoke and continue the extra-CIA networks that Bush setup to get around those nancy boys. My guess is though to just keep the CIA distracted with battling pseudo reforms.
I am waiting for the whole lot to get PO’d and really go after Obama.
We forget that GWB practically grew up in this world of government bureaucracies and really knew how to roll the Langley/Ft. Mead crowd, with no small help from Pops too, I’d bet.
Obama and Rahm have no clue at all, and Leon much more either. They will not know whether they are walking on their hands or their feet soon enough. Doubt that their is much they can do about it but hope that they do not PO that crowd. I would guess the first screwup will come out of Rahm.
It is difficult because you just canot ignore team, you have to outplay them.
One more of the unherald triumphs of the dread Bush/Cheney/Rummy troika.
Feb 4, 2009 - 5:51 pm 35. Mongoose:ignore THEM (the intel poeple)
Feb 4, 2009 - 5:55 pm 36. buddy larsen:and this account of his plenary session with Gen. Petraeus, seen alongside the Afghanistan Dien Ben Phu shaping up if we don’t show a war face in the White House, plus the Russian Federation’s new security protocol sure makes me wonder if the plan is a two year plan, to achieve its goals before the danger of the 2010 elections. If this goal is merely to shut off that evil mideast oil coming to USA (foreigners would see the kill to come much later, when poverty has ruined the US military, domestics would see green utopia being forced down right wing anti-abortion christianist throats), the right US president could be complicit, for the good of the planet and the children you see, by merely having signaled no retaliation for any mid-sized regional theater aggression against US forces and/or US mideast allies. just knocking us out of one strategic area and achieving psychological dominance and the Sauds (OPEC swing producer) will have little choice nor reason but to start taking orders re oil prices and customer list, from the Caspian Axis. If you are strategizing in the Kremlin, you’d have long since tried to achieve a link, a channel, with the people who sent Obama, and you’d also know that you may never have a better political economic opening than right now, to grab and hold, with ICBM and underground shelters rampant in the world imagination, the whip hand on oil from now on, and thus the power to ensure no rivals rise.
Feb 4, 2009 - 6:12 pm 37. buddy larsen:http://2164th.blogspot.com/2009/02/obama-decides-to-buy-iraqs-future.html
(corrected link from “and this account”)
Feb 4, 2009 - 6:22 pm 38. buddy larsen:If that’s the case, then expect everything the admin does, in economic and foreign policy, to seem to you to be outrageously wrongly wrought. This is because the point of view will not be that of an ordinary American administration concerned with re-election. it’ll be the point of view of the nude erection.
Feb 4, 2009 - 6:34 pm 39. whiskey:Mike asks what is the benefit to Jihadis nuking America?
Read my post. Basically, Osama has wanted to conquer Saudi Arabia with an exile Army since seeing the Mecca Mosque take-over in 1979 and seeing how vulnerable the House of Saud really is. That was the main concern of Ayman Al-Zawahari with Egypt.
Both struggled for about ten years until they hit on the tactic of killing lots of Americans, they got a LOT of men, money, and power for each new attack.
Furthermore, they have the example of Spain and Britain, which responded to attacks by PC pandering and wide-scale surrender at home to Sharia. Sharia is the law of the land in the UK, with Welfare benefits going to men with multiple wives.
With Obama, the stealth Muslim, they believe there will be no response. Clinton never ordered one and neither did Bush for the Cole. Weakness invites attack.
America under Obama is weak.
Feb 4, 2009 - 6:56 pm 40. BT:I suppose Dick Cheney means that we should keep doing strip searches of my 80-year old mother when she gets on an airplane. While letting the un-inspected luggage fly in the cargo hold below.
And then screwing up the Afghanistan thing by attacking Iraq. And so on.
The problem with Bush/Cheney is that their electoral politics were always a little more effective than their governance. And that pattern continues, with this kind of wise messaging from the Dick.
I rather disagree with Mongoose on GWB. The suprising thing about him was that he was so INEPT – unlike his father, who really did have a solid footing on a lot of policy issues. But Cheney and Rumsfled, those guys know how to push the levers, all right. If you ask me, THEY rolled GWB.
Feb 4, 2009 - 6:57 pm 41. whiskey:Cannoneer — I think you have it nailed. This culture war btw is occurring all over the West, Britain, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, France, Israel, Switzerland, and so on.
Feb 4, 2009 - 6:57 pm 42. Mike Sylwester:Whiskey (@38)
they have the example of Spain and Britain, which responded to attacks by PC pandering and wide-scale surrender at home to Sharia.
That’s why Al Qaeda will not invest its efforts in attacks on the USA homeland.
Attacking other countries — Spain, Britain, Israel, Denmark, Pakistan, Iraq, etc. — is more effective and less dangerous.
Feb 4, 2009 - 7:15 pm 43. buddy larsen:I can understand your bitterness, BT, but “inept” isn’t the right word –inept compared to what? –you’d have to have had a side-by-side 2000-2008 with someone else as CiC to say that in any way but just as a vent.
Feb 4, 2009 - 7:19 pm 44. JohnFLob:Has Glenn Carle never heard of C.A.I.R. and similar organizations? All of their charters call for the over throw of our government. Their attacks may not include damage to physical structures. Their massive attacks are more insidious. They attack our freedom to speak freely and openly to more fully discuss issues. With their cries of racism, hate speech, islamophobia, and anarchy in the streets because their feelings were hurt they are trying to create a sense of fear to prevent us from being confrontational in any way. It is truly a WMD, a War on Mental Dexterity.
Or does Glenn Carle base his views, evaluations, and hopes on the Islam of Mecca rather than the contemporary Islam of Medina? The former was quiet and peaceful. The latter exploded into history as a blood thirsty band of street thugs.
Feb 4, 2009 - 7:23 pm 45. NahnCee:Consider the possible targets of a next American terrorist attack: NY, Los Angeles, Chicago, Seattle. ALL of those cities voted extremely heavily for Obama, and three of them also have large percentages of black population.
I’d say if any of those four cities (always including Berkeley, too, of course) get nuked in the next year or two, that it’s certainly liberal karma coming home to roost. At that point we can and will make the claim that it wouldn’t have happened at all except population masses like those cities CHOSE to elect an incompetent President so they got what they paid for. Serves ‘em right.
I wonder if the remaining dingbat liberals left in other progressive metropolises will continue down the path of Obamamania when it happens.
Feb 4, 2009 - 7:24 pm 46. NahnCee:Cannoneer – and heretics. Don’t forget us heretics.
Feb 4, 2009 - 7:29 pm 47. Mike Sylwester:Willie G. (@20)
For Jihadis, the road to paradise is paved with dead infidels. It matters not that he and his family will die as a result. Their entry into the arms of Allah is assured. This is why the concept of Mutually Assured Destruction doesn’t work with religious fanatics the way that it did with a more self-interested USSR.
Many Jihadis still have a fantasy that they will enjoy eternal bliss in Allah’s paradise if they martyr themselves.
However, very few still believe a previous fantasy that the USA will be intimidated or defeated by terrorist attacks that they are capable of delivering. That fantasy was tested in real life, and it back-fired terribly.
There are infidels everywhere. Jihadis don’t necessarily have to attack the infidels inside the USA. For example, Denmark is a tiny country that has no ability to project military force and that is full of infidels who allowed a newspaper to print cartoons poking fun at Moslem superstitions.
Speaking of Denmark, the cartoons were published in September 2005, and now three and a half years have passed without any successful Moslem attack inside Denmark. That kind of says something about Al Qaeda’s ability and willingness to continue its War on Zionists and Crusaders outside of Moslem countries.
Al Qaeda is suffering a constant pounding in its last refuge in the mountains of Pakistan. Al Qaeda is in a dire, desparate situation. It probably is not maintaining any research-and-development laboratories that will manufacture any WMD weapons in the foreseeable future.
Feb 4, 2009 - 7:33 pm 48. Mike Sylwester:JohnFLob (@43)
Has Glenn Carle never heard of C.A.I.R. and similar organizations? All of their charters call for the over throw of our government.
Back up that statement with a link to the CAIR charter’s text calling for the overthrow of the US Government.
Feb 4, 2009 - 7:36 pm 49. Tamquam:7. Mike Sylwester:
Cheney discredited himself in 2003 when he proclaimed his certainty that Saddam Hussein’s regime was hiding an active WMD program.
Welcome back, Mike. Did you miss us?
I’m sure the following facts will be utterly lost on you, but shouting “I can’t hear you!” won’t make them go away.
1. What the Iraq Survey Group actuall found.
http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/report/2004/isg-final-report/isg-final-report_vol3_bw-02.htm
2. In addition to the 500 tons of uranium at the Osirak reactor The US has revealed that it removed more than 1.7 metric tons of radioactive material from Iraq in a secret operation.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/3872201.stm
3. Cornering the market on bug spray: Iraqi Nerve Gas, WMD Find
http://archive.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2004/5/17/170427.shtml
G’night Mike. Sweet dreams.
Feb 4, 2009 - 7:51 pm 50. Alexis:America under Obama is weak.
The United States Government may be weak under Obama. The American people are as strong as ever, despite the President we presently endure. If the federal government had gotten its way, the United States would have lost the Battle of New Orleans. Likewise, the Battle of Saratoga was not won by men who obeyed orders. Sometimes, implacable men come out of the woodwork to defend our country even when the defeatists and doomsayers have long given up on America’s defense. Perhaps this is one of those times.
Feb 4, 2009 - 9:04 pm 51. Fat Man:Wretchard: Do we not have the issue of how to deal with Black Swans. Cheney is saying that there are Black Swans out there, and their cost is fearful. Carle’s position is like the risk management stance of Wall Street before mid September.
Feb 4, 2009 - 9:34 pm 52. Lifeofthemind:There were good reasons to consider Pearl harbor vulnerable to an air attack even before Taranto. The wiki article on the attack does not mention, but the linked article on the conspiracy theories mentions in passing, that the United States had conducted a mock air raid exercise against Pearl harbor during the 1920s. Hawaii was stuffed with Japanes spies who would have reported on the exercise, which was ignored by the Americans after it was judged to have demonstrated the islands vulnerability to a raid.
Feb 4, 2009 - 9:34 pm 53. Lifeofthemind:@38 BT,
Feb 4, 2009 - 9:42 pm 54. Doug:You are a lying sack of sh*t. Everything that gets on the plane is inspected. Given your derangement and hostility I would be happy to see every piece of luggage connected to you or anyone linked to you disassembled for closer examination. The repetition of the dishonest charges flung like poo by the treasonous left against the people who successfully kept America safe for 7 years and gave the world real hope by taking the war to the enemy does nothing to obscure the fact that the last administration was correct in its perspectives and its judgements and the current one is already proven to be feckless and incompetent.
“Petraeus made the mistake of thinking he was still dealing with George Bush instead of with Barack Obama.”
But Obama informed Gates, Petraeus and Joint Chiefs Chairman Admiral Mike Mullen that he wasn’t convinced and wanted Gates and the military leaders to come back quickly with a detailed 16-month plan, according to two sources who have talked with participants in the meeting.
Obama’s decision to override Petraeus’ recommendation has not ended the conflict between the president and senior military officers over troop withdrawal, however. There are indications that Petraeus and his allies in the military and the Pentagon, including General Ray Odierno, now the top commander in Iraq, have already begun to try to pressure Obama to change his withdrawal policy.
Feb 4, 2009 - 10:06 pm 55. Doug:I just saw that @ the Elephant, Buddy.
Feb 4, 2009 - 10:14 pm 56. BT:Scary days indeed.
The Marxist Messiah that knows better than Petraeus, Odierno, and Gates.
S….. days ahead, indeed.
Lifeofthemind:
I think you are a little confused on who might be the more hostile person.
Unless you are referring to how much I hate America.
And I’m deranged as well. You really have quite a crystal ball there.
Anyhow, a woman I know who works for TSA has told me that a lot of checked luggage goes unchecked. They’d lie to have it all checked but that would take more resources. But hey, who needs government when you have the 2nd amendment?
And that Obama, week 2 and already a complete failure, that was quick! God forbid he does as Clinton did, balanced budgets and blow jobs. Sounds good to me.
Feb 4, 2009 - 10:45 pm 57. NahnCee:BT, balanced budgets, blow jobs, and bombed cities — a liberal’s wet dream.
You *are* hostile, don’t you know? It’s what the shrinks call being “passive aggressive”, so that we see punks like you murmuring snarky barbs when you’re by yourself, and then ganging up in anti-Semitic and/or BDS-foaming mobs to allow your hostility a free rein.
Does it never bother good citizens like yourself, BT, to compare how often what you post and evidently think is exactly the same bullshit as what Ahmadinnerjacket or the Saudi imams are saying?
If Bush is INEPT in your assessment, I wonder what you’ve managed to accomplish in your own life. Or are you typing away in the basement of your 80-year-old mother’s house, still living at home and unemployed, waiting for your Messiah to start his Brown Shirt group and hire you, which would give you a legal excuse to go out peeping into other people’s windows at night.
Feb 4, 2009 - 11:00 pm 58. SpeakEasy:MikeSyl,
Feb 4, 2009 - 11:00 pm 59. fred:While you are correct there are infidels world wide to choose from, the largest impact, most significant statement will be made by attacking the US. In fact there have been many smaller attacks since 911 but few demand the attention of the media beyond a third page, middle paragraph or two. And I think Denmark made sufficiently contrite apologies and concessions to put that particular theater on the “to do” list but lower in order. You are dead wrong, and I believe your brand of thinking is the whole point here, if you think AQ needs more than a hidden flat somewhere to conduct low-tech biological R&D. You are welcome to your sand head-warmer. I’ll stay above ground, thank you.
The threat of Islamic terrorism has been ever-present since A.D. 622, when Muhammad launched his career raiding the caravans and contemplating how he was going to wipe out and drive out the Jews in and around Yathrib (Medina).
The problem with the parameters laid down by Mr. Cheney and Mr. Carle is that they seem to not want to look at the inspirational texts and examples for jihad. I think it is well nigh impossible to thwart everything that this determined, wily, stealthy enemy wills to bring into being.
It is not enough to open all options for intelligence gathering, if the people directing this effort underestimates the strength and tradition of this enemy. He does have a history after all.
Feb 4, 2009 - 11:14 pm 60. Dave:About this bt guy: Baggage goes unscreened?
Hogwash! If the automated scanners are not there/out of order/cannot handle a particular
package, then the object is swabbed with
chemicals that will reveal even trace amounts of explosive etc.
Perfect system? No, nothing can be. But it is darned good. It would take teams of educated professionals to defeat it and they would have to have some good luck to go with it. My job has me observing what goes on in this department and I speak with some authority.
Feb 4, 2009 - 11:30 pm 61. Dave:@Mike Sylwester: You are right about jihadists attitudes towards attacking the US Of A. But only for the moment.
We face a socio-cultural mindset characterized by fantasies, delusions, wishful thinking, etc.
The moment they think it MAY have become possible for them to attack the USA with impunity, it will take them all of 45 minutes to conclude that it is CERTAIN they can do so.
Then different groups/factions will compete with each other as to who can be the nastiest. (They will also sell each other out
in order to spend eternity with 72 Rosie O’Donnells.)
The psychological will at times be at least as important as the physical in this war.
Feb 4, 2009 - 11:39 pm 62. Dave:@Roderick Reilly: I too would like to see DHS scrapped. Likewise the mistake known as FEMA.
Restore the Eisenhower Office of Civil Defense. It was much better than FEMA and did half of what DHS is supposed to do.
The other half was CONARC—–Continental Army Command. It worked well too. That is why it was ruled unecessary.
Both OCD and CONARC went by the boards, as memory serves me, when Dhimmi Carter was in office. An expensive loss IMO.
Feb 4, 2009 - 11:48 pm 63. Doug:OCD was visible way down at the level of my hometown of 3,200!
I can still remember the posters on the walls, Geiger Counters, Iodine tablets, Lookout Tower, …etc (!)
Feb 5, 2009 - 12:06 am 64. whiskey:MikeSylvester –
You don’t get it. Attacks on Spain or the UK don’t net the same amount of money, men, and power as attacks on the US.
Osama, Zawahari, and guys just like them dream the impossible dream — being the biggest warlord. Blowing up commuters in Madrid is not going to get it done. Killing 3-6 million in NYC will.
Which guarantees the death of New York. Nuclear dawn over Manhattan.
PARTICULARY with Obama’s own words to Al-Arabiya “Trust me I’m really a Muslim and hate America as much as you do.”
Obama needed to come out of the gate promising openly death, destruction, and killing half the world’s Muslims, if America is attacked, THEN offer the Olive Branch. Instead he only offered the Olive Branch without first brandishing the sword. That’s WEAK. REAL Weakness.
And no Alexis, it is not now 1812. Instant communications and the far larger power of what one NYT columnist called “the Gentry” i.e. the Single Women, status-driven Men, folks in Law, Advertising, Marketing, Government, Media, Finance, etc, depending on having the “proper” opinions, makes an Andrew Jackson impossible.
Petraeus will be fired post-haste, as will Odierno. The Pentagon filled with hacks and yes-men. This will generate a huge fight, of course, but Obama WANTS an attack. He welcomes it.
Obama’s plan is to institute Sharia Law, in stages, first only for Muslims, in the US. He’s already in response to Iran’s satellite launch and Korea’s planned ICBM splashing down off California, calling for an 80% reduction in US nuclear arms and the end of Missile Defense. To make both like us.
He’s not stupid. He figures he can negotiate the surrender which his electoral coalition would LOVE easily. In reality it will only provoke a monumental crisis and might rip the nation apart.
Which is happening anyway. The nation of the View, Nancy Pelosi, Folsom Street Fair, Robert “No White Men allowed!” Barack Hussein Obama, taxes for thee but not me, and so on cannot exist with the nuclear family, Sarah Palin, the NRA, the average White Working Man, and Main Street.
ONE must destroy the other. Obama is betting on the View. He might be right. I suspect after the second nuke, his usual dithering, offering a surrender, he’ll be tossed out, into the brig, and there will be a national government of emergency. With a general purging of the View types.
Survival does funny things. America is too big to be decapitated, by just a few nukes, and the surviving Katie Courics will find it ugly going around the rest of us. Things unthinkable will be quite thinkable.
Including some rather explicit “torture,” extracting the information in the most efficient way possible from any possible suspect (i.e. Muslim) through drugs.
I suspect that the success of the Bush Administration in stopping further attacks was based on a chemical questioning of a few key guys and rolling them up. In the aftermath of millions of American dead, ruined cities, it won’t be Manzanar. It will be Manzanar plus chemical questioning of EVERYONE inside.
Because then (Wretchard’s Three Conjectures) it becomes sheer survival. Do anything and no boundaries to survive. Eating something disgusting will be the least of it.
Feb 5, 2009 - 12:09 am 65. Fletcher Christian:#46 Mike Sylwester – “Many Jihadis still have a fantasy that they will enjoy eternal bliss in Allah’s paradise if they martyr themselves.”
Yup. So we should send them to paradise, as they see it. All of them, and right now – BEFORE they kill a few million Westerners.
And then, just maybe, after a couple of centuries when the land they lived on stops glowing in the dark, said land can be recolonised by people who want to live in the 23rd century instead of the 7th.
Feb 5, 2009 - 1:07 am 66. Karen:CAIR used to give training sessions for FBI agents but not no more: “House Leaders Wary of CAIR After FBI Shuns Islamic Advocacy Group”
Feb 5, 2009 - 1:12 am 67. wildernesscalling:Along with firing Petraeus and Odierno, Obama may have to axe some folks in the FBI too.
Cheney is differently upping the ante for “0”, rightly so. It is correct to put “0” and Crew. in the spot light that the Left held “W” in while their attack Dogs (MSM) constantly flipped flopped from “W” going too far and yet wailing about the threats. I think “Whiskey” #16 is hitting the nail on the head, about the power of just hitting the US will/would bring to a group, a lot of you over look the value of hitting the US outside of the US, the prize is the US homeland but to say take out a major US military base in a weak country like Kuwait, Afghanistan, etc. where they loss of US military men and women would be in the thousands would be a very big blow to the US, security in one of those locations is much like what happened with the USS Cole, but with a crude nuke the “Rubber Raft” would not need to come as close to the ship…Civilians, well we all know how Islamic Homicide bombers feel about Civilians, Also I believe Carle is forgetting the tentacles that the “H”’s (Hamas/Hezbollah) have Here and worldwide, they would and could easily do the Homicide murdering they do in the ME with the flick of a switch, I do not think they (Hamas/Hezbollah) understand what a critical/golden moment they have! Imagine a couple Homicide bombers blowing themselves up at a couple shopping malls from East to West coast, the economy wouldn’t just crash worse then 9/11, it would be dead for many business cycles to come, unemployment would go higher than ever before and “0”is screwed up now just think what that would do.
Feb 5, 2009 - 2:06 am 68. Cannoneer No. 4:whiskey suspects after the second nuke, his usual dithering, offering a surrender, he’ll be tossed out, into the brig, and there will be a national government of emergency.
Tossed out by whom?
What becomes of the Marines, Airmen, Soldiers, Secret Service and police who stand in the way of the tosser outers?
What makes you think he will make it to the brig past all those lamp posts?
“National Government of Emergency.” Nary a Jefferson, nor a Madison, nor a Washington in that crew.
Feb 5, 2009 - 3:01 am 69. Pops in Vienna:I’m just sitting here thinking about what a wonderful job Obama and Rev. Wright will do at the memorial service following our next “9-11″ attack.
Obama’s words will be healing as Rev. Wright’s cause us to search our souls and admit that the fault lies in us, not them.
Feb 5, 2009 - 3:04 am 70. ledger:With Obama dropping his guard in the name of reaching out to Iran anything could happen.
Ahmadinejad could conceal a relatively simple gun style atomic bomb on a “diplomatic” jet aircraft. Then find some excuse, such as, “I would like to address the UN.”
Obama would take him up on the deal and allow Ahmadinejad free access to the airspace above NY. Then at the correct point over NY he could detonate the atomic bomb.
Ahmadinejad would not even have to be on the aircraft.
His lackeys would be “martyrs” and hundreds of thousands of Americans would be incinerated. Ahmadinejad would become a hero to Islamic world.
There must be hundreds of ways to conceal an atomic bomb in various vehicles and detonate it in NY.
Feb 5, 2009 - 3:14 am 71. Doug:Well done, good and faithful servant:UNC academic propagandist receives award from Iran’s Thug-In-Chief
UNC academic propagandist receives award from Iran’s Thug-In-Chief
University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill professor Carl Ernst flew to Tehran on Tuesday night to accept an award from Iranian Thug-In-Chief Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Even though Ernst reportedly “cringes” at some of Ahmadinejad’s “policies,” UNC-CH Chancellor Holden Thorp decided that this was an “academic honor,” not a political one, and so had no objection to Ernst’s trip. Ernst himself explained, “…it would have looked strange if I declined an academic award.”
Thorp and Ernst seem anxious to stress that this is an academic, non-political award — as if Tehran these days were crawling with disinterested academics who are in no way co-opted by the regime.
…people who thought it would be a great idea for Ahmadinejad to give an address at Columbia University and to present a Christmas message on British television.
Feb 5, 2009 - 3:57 am 72. Peter Boston:The best way to handle useful idiots like Carl Ernst is to elect Sarah Palin POTUS. There would be such vituperation from the self-anointed liberal elite on November 5, 2012 that day would be forever known as the Day of Exploding Heads.
The gene pool would greatly improved.
Feb 5, 2009 - 4:17 am 73. davod:RE. 21 Blert:
“The brilliant defense minister for Malaya completely predicted the outcome…
BTW, the Australians figured out that the British had a hopeless situation and stopped Churchill from using Anzac forces in Singapore…”
Malaya did no have defence minister as it was still a colony of Great Britain.
The Australian government did object to having more of its military leave Australia for Europe, Asia, and the Middle East after the Japanese moves in 1941. However, over 14,000 Australians were taken prisoner at he Fall of Singapore.
Feb 5, 2009 - 4:43 am 74. Doug:An exploded head would be an improvement, Boston:
Feb 5, 2009 - 4:46 am 75. no mo uro:BOO!
“the Marxist-Socialist Left, i.e.: the modern Democratic Party leadership. They have something in common with our Islamist enemies: Hatred of the Judeo-Christian values which underpin American law and civilization. This theophobic hatred of American values is what brings these two ideologies into common cause, and this emerging alliance gives realistic hope to the Islamists that they can pull off another Byzantine takedown; and with a some assistance it can be done.”
This sums it up. Wretchard wrote of the Ichneumon Wasp, and it hasn’t gone away, it’s just found a face in BHO.
No doubt many millions of Christian Americans voted for BHO out of ignorance of this concept, or without realizing the contempt that he and his fellow travelers have for anything authentically Christian. I suspect that if the left tips its hand too early, say by 2010, that these people will immediately withdraw support.
The problem is the feminized/emasculated class that Whiskey discusses. They are hell bent on their agenda and will likely not be deterred by anything short of direct physical threat – and perhaps not even that.
Feb 5, 2009 - 5:28 am 76. Starling:Peter,
Yuval Levin has a fresh piece up at Commentary entitled
“The Meaning of Sarah Palin.” It’s very good and I suspect others will find it of interest.
http://tinyurl.com/d2nmau
Feb 5, 2009 - 5:57 am 77. DanM:#70. Peter Boston – Ahhh, wouldn’t that be a sight! When stealth liberals would be exposed. No more “independents”….
Sorry, that brought out the ultra-right wing in me… I sit with my mouth dropped at the news. Even I thought that The One couldn’t foul it up this quick. You gotta sit in amazement at it for a minute or so. Only a minute, then you better go make some serious plans..
Feb 5, 2009 - 6:28 am 78. barry 0351:The Government, Democrats and Republicans only worry is to stay in power. Those that lead us don’t care whether we are Christian or Muslem. Those that lead us know that even under Sharia those that lead us will still be in charge.
Feb 5, 2009 - 6:46 am 79. Joshua:Some who lead us wish us to become Islamic because those that lead us crave the power over their political rivals and the population that Islam has always able to wield. The power of a vengeful god to keep those of us who are led in line.
I see no one here has yet considered the possibility that has occurred to me over the past year: that Islamic supremacists are seeking The Bomb, or at least want to be seen to be seeking The Bomb, but not so much as an actual weapon against the U.S. as a giant red herring to distract America’s attention (as in government, intelligence, military and citizens) squarely away from the much more successful, ongoing “soft jihad” in our news media, schools, academia etc.
If this is in fact the supremacists’ strategy, so far it has been wildly successful.
Feb 5, 2009 - 6:46 am 80. tharkun:re: 77. Joshua:
This is an instance where Occam’s Razor is applicable. None of these possibilities are mutually exclusive, and even a cursory look at the evidence which is all around us clearly indicates that Islamists are proceeding on all fronts simultaneously.
Like a mutating disease, they attack across a broad spectrum of the organs of the body of Western civilization. Wherever they find a weakness or an opening, they advance, and wherever they meet resistance, they retreat momentarily, but the pressure is relentless and omnipresent, and they are gradually wearing down the body’s defenses.
What I see here, and pretty much everywhere else, is far too much “over-thinking” of what is simply a to-the-death battle between two mutually-incompatible and irreconcilable realities…
Feb 5, 2009 - 7:27 am 81. Jay:Risk theory is a well established part of statistical theory and methods PROVIDED that the states of nature are known and the probability distribution is known up to parameters. If there is a low probability state of nature then the estimation of that probability takes a lot of observations.
Feb 5, 2009 - 7:41 am 82. A Balrog of Morgoth:When the states of nature are not clearly specified then we are in the realm of fundamental uncertainty that is beyond the Bayesian subjective probability updating method.
Humans have the cognitive ability to make some sense of confusion. Some people are gifted in seeing patterns while others can see the obvious. Normative values cloud analysis.
The liberals and the political elites with the exception of people like Chaney can not fathom Islam. I was ignorant of Islam until a few years ago EVEN THOUGH I had religious Islamic students, one whom I have talked to a lot. Takiya,lying for the benefit of the faith, makes it hard to learn about core Islamic values for Muslims. For example I had a very secular Turkish Ph.D. student whose thesis was a comparison between the religious Shas party in Israel and the AK Party in Turkey led by Ergodan. When I asked her about the pigs and apes slander of Jews in Islam she would not answer. I believe that it is in the Koran but I don’t have time to waste with such trash. My main religious interest is with the Church (I am not Catholic).
I have done some work with the CIA. There are some good analysts but it is warped organization even by the “standards” of DC corruption.
Yes we need good intelligence but who is going to provide it? The lackeys of the Saudis paymasters?
The sun is cooling down. The last little ice age was around 1775. A couple of world event revolts happened then.
Anyone who claims that Al-Q would expend any newly-acquired NBC capability only on Israel or Europe instead of the United States is a wishful thinker.
The USA is the prestige target, and will always be the prestige target.
Feb 5, 2009 - 7:41 am 83. peterike:Does Oblarney’s dissing of the military perhaps set us up for a Petraeus presidential bid in 2012? By then, we might well be desperate for a strong leader (assuming we’re still having elections). A Petraeus/Palin ticket would be the ultimate middle finger to the chattering classes.
2012 will likely be a key inflection point in American history. 2008 was, of course, and we shifted in the wrong direction. 2012 will be our last chance to shift back. I expect a lot of buyer’s remorse is setting in, but much will depend on how large a constituency Obama can purchase these next four years (how many millions of illegals legalized, how many more people hired by the government, etc.).
I am very worried about a large terror attack, not just because I’m in the NYC blast radius, but because I think Obama will use that crisis to grab power he’ll never give back.
Feb 5, 2009 - 8:02 am 84. Mike Sylwester:The USA is the target that can and will counter-attack anywhere in the world immediately and effectively. We demonstrated some (not all) of our capabilities clearly in Afghanistan and Iraq.
If Moslem fanatics obtain the ability to launch an NBC attack, they will attack Israel, a country that is small, nearby and chock-full of Jews.
Right now, Al Qaeda is preoccupied with trying to hang onto its refuge in a remote, mountainous, violent, impoverished corner of Pakistan.
Feb 5, 2009 - 8:05 am 85. Mark:Barry 351 writes:
“Some who lead us wish us to become Islamic because those that lead us crave the power over their political rivals and the population that Islam has always able to wield.”
This desire seems to have been motivating Napoleon’s flirtation with Islam.
Joshua writes:
re. “’soft jihad’ in our news media, schools, academia etc. . . If this is in fact the supremacists’ strategy, so far it has been wildly successful.”
On the other hand, the influence of the West, especially the appeal of freedom and economic development, cuts in the other direction.
We’ll see whether the East/Islam or West/Christian appeal is greater. (The secular has no lasting power.) I’m betting on Christendom, with an assist from the evangelical fervor of the Global South churches, which could ignite a new wave of spirit in the U.S. I’m not sure about Europe.
Feb 5, 2009 - 8:15 am 86. Storm-Rider:“Al Qaeda is preoccupied with trying to hang onto its refuge in a remote, mountainous, violent, impoverished corner of Pakistan.”
You’ve completely missed the most dangerous aspect of totalitarian Islam, i.e.: Legal (Sharia) and Political Islam; and these soft-spoken, well-dressed Islalmists are now allied with a segment of our own American society – the Marxist/Socialist Left. Both of these forms of anti-American tyranny seethe with hatred when they hear the words of our Declaration of Independence.
http://gatewaypundit.blogspot.com/2009/02/third-jihad-tells-truth-about-jihadist.html
Feb 5, 2009 - 8:16 am 87. Alexis:Some Americans will fight against al-Qaeda even if the federal government tells such people not to. It is important to not give up the fight against our enemies merely because the defeatists appear to have the upper hand.
The year may not be 1812. Still, America’s fighting spirit has not been decisively defeated. Obama’s victory at the polls was a tactical defeat for the war effort; it will only become a strategic victory for defeatism if we let it.
Presidents come and go. America endures. Surely, America is not so brittle that the mere election of a false prophet will shatter our nation. America may be going through the long winter of Obama’s presidency, but that is no excuse to give up the fight.
Ad astra per aspera.
Feb 5, 2009 - 8:59 am 88. steveaz:Guys, on the stealth economic recovery that dareth not speak its name…
I researched high div-paying energy stocks for a friend of mine last week and made a fascinating discovery: petroleum and natural gas utilities and trusts have rebounded steadily from November’s lows. They’ve almost unanimously steadied themselves at the levels they enjoyed back in January-March of 2008.
Oddly, I had not heard this reported anywhere: this rebound in energy stocks flies in the face of the media’s gloomy reports, and it goes against the downward trends we are told are active in the services industries, REIT’s and non-essential consumer goods.
If, like me, you think the attempts to force America into “green” energy options using lies, faked authenticity and artificial scarcity are all hot air, then you’ll look through all the media generated smoke, and realize that the Democrats’ and concerted media barrage has created exactly the sort of expectations-gradient that might drive investors to put their money behind the scarce, tried-and-true sources..
Fact is, we AGW skeptics are not alone out there and we’re voting with our money – as the solidification of crude oii- and natural gas-stocks shows. This also suggests that, just as folks like Carle are willing to engage in masturbatory fantasies about the threat of nuclear terror, so too has a huge tranche of the investing class – especially those swayed by urban myths and “green” hedge-fund returns – allowed themselves to be distracted by “global warming.”
These idiots’ shorting of both oil and America offered the more realistic among us an excellent option to buy-in, and the stabilization of energy stocks suggests that we’ve taken advantage of it.
Feb 5, 2009 - 9:08 am 89. John Work:Wretchard has pointed out both the need for more accurate intelligence and the corresponding need for a rapid decision-making response to that intelligence.
But there is also the need to interpret the intelligence – something that was lacking before 9/11 and before Pearl Harbor. Sometimes the facts are readily available and the intentions have been made clear, but like the “helicopter people” in a previous post, no one wants to “connect the dots” as the Left so tediously repeated after 9/11.
The United States is faced with three major enemies at present, all of whom have made their intentions clear: our internal Left, the Islamic Radicals, and the Chinese. There are countless means available for all of these enemies to strike severe blows against us.
We’ve already failed to fully appreciate the threat of the Left, and we’re about to experience a series of blows that could well end our country as we have known it. Preoccupied with their own agenda, the Left is oblivious to the other threats. In their world-view, and in the world-view of those who support them, these other threats cannot exist, any more than the New Guinea natives could conceive of the existence of a helicopter that was hovering in the air a few yards away. So they looked away, ignoring even the sound and the prop-wash.
But some of us recognize the more immediate threat of the Jihadists, but are still confused by the many options they have available. Even though we see that they could use nukes, bio-weapons, or just dynamite or oil and fertilizer, we wonder about probabilities and even intentions (despite the fact that the intentions have been made perfectly clear). Due to the “leadership” of the Left, we will almost certainly be hit again in some way since we’ve “sent a message” (hate that phrase) by electing the One that we’re receptive to another strike.
But I (and others) maintain that our biggest threat is China, which has the means to deliver really massive destruction to the United States and which has also clearly stated their long-term intentions. While we vote for Hope and Change, experiment with Socialism at home, and dither about the threat of Islamic terrorism, we ignore other facts and means of our destruction. China is aggressively developing their space program and during the Clinton years acquired much of our nuclear technology and many of our military secrets. With our current obsessions with other matters, they have the perfect opportunity to strike us while we are weak. With the United States gone, the Jihadist will be a minor problem that the Chinese willl deal with much more ruthlessly than we even imagine.
For a scenario of how this could happen, based on real facts, go to my website and download the free pdf of the first three chapters of my novel. Just read Chapter 3 which describes the attack scenario. Then look at some of the links for the supporting information. The information is out there, it’s just a matter of interpretation and estimating probablilities.
Before Pearl Harbor and before 9/11 we had the statements of intention, and we had the facts. We just failed to interpret the information we already had.
Feb 5, 2009 - 9:37 am 90. slade:You’ve completely missed the most dangerous aspect of totalitarian Islam, i.e.: Legal (Sharia) and Political Islam; and these soft-spoken, well-dressed Islalmists are now allied with a segment of our own American society – the Marxist/Socialist Left. – Storm-Rider
I agree. In my view Islam is transitioning from the hairy, wild-eyed suicide dive-bomber into the educated polished Hanan Ashwari profile where positions are negotiated sotto voce across the big mahogany conference table. The only similarity is the seething hatred.
Feb 5, 2009 - 9:41 am 91. Storm-Rider:Nazi Law was the underpinning for the Gestapo, S.S., and Nazi Military; Marxist Law was the underpinning for the Soviet Gulags and Soviet Military; and so too is Islamist Sharia Law the underpinning for Islamist terror organizations.
Nazi, Marxist and Islamist (Sharia) legal systems are totalitarian, and each represent different forms or flavors of man’s most unjust and virulent law: The Law of the Jungle. Each of these legal systems stand in direct conflict with the only true revolutionary legal and political system in human history: The American Revolution – as embodied in our Declaration of Independence and Constitution. The Third Jihad is shaping up to be a legal and political struggle which will play out in parallel with armed struggle. On one side are the Islamists with their American Marxist/Socialist sidekicks, and on the other side are Americans who cling to their founding fathers (Declaration and Constitution), and their guns.
Feb 5, 2009 - 10:01 am 92. aaron:I distinctly remember the big guy in Iran saying something to the effect of “we’re not fighting so you’ll give us something, we’re fighting to eliminate you.”
We refuse to take them at face value. As a result we will suffer.
Feb 5, 2009 - 10:34 am 93. Charles:The US government, because it has shifted over to the democratic party rule–has shifted over to Central McCarthy time. So its helpful to remember the truth behind the lie.
McCarthy Unplugged
Russian Archival Identification of Real Names Behind Cover Names in VENONA
Russian Spies Uncovered By Venona
LA Times
Feb 5, 2009 - 11:06 am 94. Al Reasin:By Ronald Radosh
September 17, 2008
Case Closed Rosenberg’s were Soviet Spies
We have little security at facilities that handle/use radioactive isotopes. I won’t get into specifics but think if these were stolen by people who were suicidal and released in a major financial center. Once rain spread it into inaccessible areas, it would be impossible to remove.
While there would be hot spots that could be contained, the general background would increase and who would be allowed or want to work there. The Bits had a possible scenario filmed as the Dirty War described at http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/dirty_war/3654758.stm
Feb 5, 2009 - 11:07 am 95. steveaz:Storm-Rider,
I think Bush/Cheney foresaw this “Third Jihad” stage, and they knew that a good part of it would be fought inside America.
But, by projecting the first part of this War into the ME-proper and the Indian/Pakistani/Afghani theatre (a policy in direct opposition to John Kerry’s), the Bush administration was able publicize the antagonists and highlight the legal mine-fields by proxy in preparation for the domestic, legal wars to come.
Preparing, popularizing and exercising “thought-models” (ie. is “water-boarding” really torture? Is flushing a Koran really a “war-crime?”) in advance of the domestic phase of the war will be proven wise, I think. The bulk of the forward lessons we have gained has seriously compromised the standard domestic legal defenses that provide cover for in-country terrorists.
Some of the ’soft’ weapons in the Constitutionalists’ quiver that I expect will see live-fire after another terrorist attack in the West are:
1. targeted restrictions on student visas – these’re sure to be called “racist in the UN, but if India, Japan, the US and Western Europe all stand together, they could make a real statement.
2. businesses’ hiring personnel will increase targeted discrimination of groups that over-litigate: a rational, if covert, mechanism for retribution against pariah groups is already built in.
(Foiling this mechanism with EEOC, “hate-crimes” and interstate commerce laws will certainly be on Obama’s AG’s “to-do” list.)
3. satirical new-media outlets – a cottage industry focused on ridiculing terror’s apologists is already growing. Judea Pearl’s recent editorial in the WSJ gives this industry a needed push.
4. INS-mediated, forced deportation: the ultimate, non-militant fall-back position lays at the ready. If it is ever used, expect the entire raft of “Immigrants’ rights” groups – from Davos to Santa Cruz – to raise a ruckus.
Each one of these weapons, including the ridiculing media-weapon, has been fortified legally by Bush’s forward modeling. Maybe this was only an accidental benefit and maybe not, but it is one of those intangible benefits that come only from the same forward-leaning military excursions that the global Left can be counted on to dissuade us from everytime.
This “coincidental” cooperation is screaming for more attention. I think it’s time it got it.
Feb 5, 2009 - 11:36 am 96. Storm-Rider:Steveaz,
Feb 5, 2009 - 11:58 am 97. buddy larsen:Yea, they did the best they could in the face of domestic Marxist opposition in Academia, Hollywood and the Mass Media. Targeting this division in America, and gaining internal allies, is one of totalitarian Islam’s prime strategies. We better get this right or follow the Byzantines down a path of submission.
Orwell in chapter 12 of “The Road to Wigan Pier”
“Faced by the fact that intelligent people are so often on the other side, the Socialist is apt to set it down to corrupt motives (conscious or unconscious), or to an ignorant belief that Socialism would not ‘work’, or to a mere dread of the horrors and discomforts of the revolutionary period before Socialism is established. Undoubtedly all these are important, but there are plenty of people who are influenced by none of them and are nevertheless hostile to Socialism. Their reason for recoiling from Socialism is spiritual, or ‘ideological’. They object to it not on the ground that it would not ‘work’, but precisely because it would ‘work’ too well. What they are afraid of is not the things that are going to happen in their own lifetime, but the things that are going to happen in a remote future when Socialism is a reality.
I have very seldom met a convinced Socialist who could grasp that thinking people may be repelled by the objective towards which Socialism appears to be moving. The Marxist, especially, dismisses this kind of thing as bourgeois sentimentality. Marxists as a rule are not very good at reading the minds of their adversaries; if they were, the situation in Europe might be less desperate than it is at present. Possessing a technique which seems to explain everything, they do not often bother to discover what is going on inside other people’s heads.”
Feb 5, 2009 - 2:06 pm 98. Richard Aubrey:As to MAD, we have two types to deal with.
Feb 5, 2009 - 2:41 pm 99. Armeggedon Rex:One is the cheerful suicide type, happy to swap his life and many millions of his coreligionists in return for damaging the Satans, great or little.
The other is the more reasonable type who is running the state within which the first type plans his work.
We can’t deter the first type, but the second type might be induced to see that whatever happens can’t be traced back to some wasteland in his own country.
Problem is when the first type gets to be in charge of a country, such as Iran.
As a military intelligence analyst, preparing to retire after 20 years, I believe the concern with a major WMD attack on U.S. soil is overblown. We certainly must attend to that threat due to the immense damage it can inflict. A much more easily executed, and therefore likely, threat is a conventional attack carried out by home grown or resident Islamists. The most effective (media attention getting) would be near simultaneous attacks across multiple U.S. states, resulting in high body counts and lots of gory television footage. If it occurred in locations commonly used by many Americans it would maximize the public terror. Think Beslan school massacre here. But an attack on a school or church might enrage and rally Americans, and would generate sympathy worldwide. A really shrewd blow would both terrorize and strike at our tottering consumer driven economy. Attacking a dozen shopping malls, the day after the Thanksgiving holiday would fit the bill. Offing posh, gluttonous American shoppers generates much less worldwide sympathy than murdering school children or churchgoing oldsters & families kneeling in pews. By selecting targets carefully, utilizing a bit of deception, and using decently trained three or four man teams equipped with deer hunting ammunition in .308 caliber, in semi automatic rifles, terrorists could kill upwards of 2000 shoppers without taking a single casualty. Think Bombay massacre here, but started and finished in ten minutes. This would obviously wreck the holiday shopping season nationwide and drive retailers to, if not over the brink. If such an attack did not trigger further economic recession or depression, the government response probably would! 9/11 was horrific but the targets didn’t bring terror “home” to most Americans who neither work in high rise buildings of the financial sector, nor in military bases. Likewise Americans were, and are, inconvenienced by restrictions on air travel, but this still doesn’t “bring terror home” like an attack on the local suburban shopping mall would. I believe we should concentrate more attention on the Islamist threat that is already here, but no one is willing to take the necessary steps to do it effectively. The backlash and overreaction of the nation will be terrible when it comes. God help us all!
Feb 5, 2009 - 2:46 pm 100. fred:I completely see things the same way Storm Rider @89 sees things.
This is an existential struggle to the death between Western Civilization and the totalitarian swine that comprise this alliance of Islam and Marxism on the other side. Because people like Mr. Carle do not have background in Islamic scripture and jihad conquest history, they cannot see the outlines within the noise they are not accustomed to hearing.
Western Civilization, at this moment, is in trouble. Its core is being eroded by the very institutions that are supposed to defend it and expand it.
Feb 5, 2009 - 3:23 pm 101. newtland:No scenario comes to mind that reaches the level of “overreaction”.
We were screwed the day W framed the fight incorrectly. Religion of peace, my ass.
Feb 5, 2009 - 3:42 pm 102. S:This would obviously wreck the holiday shopping season nationwide and drive retailers to, if not over the brink”
Don;t worry the depression will take care of that.T he singles greatest threat facing the USA is dollar hegemony and the hollow economic system. the post depression world will look very different. Those rear guard islamist threat, while not dismissing, misses the grander struggle confronting the USA: its loss of supremecy. And WMD proliferation guarantees the slide. Instead of focusing on where to put the next CCTV camera, perhaps we ought to be thinking about how we are goign to grow the economy..and not just near term but in a world where we amount to a numerical speck punching far above weight.
Feb 5, 2009 - 3:46 pm 103. Doug:Indianapolis High School Graduation Rate: 19%
Detroit, Los Angeles, and most, if not all major cities almost as grim.
…compounded by WHAT
Feb 5, 2009 - 4:01 pm 104. Doug:Sorry, accidently posted in the middle.
…compounded by WHAT gets taught to those that do go to school.
Feb 5, 2009 - 4:02 pm 105. bob:#96–A concealed weapons permit is not a bad thing to have. In the Bombay massacre there wasn’t anyone capable of shooting back.
Feb 5, 2009 - 4:19 pm 106. buddy larsen:i just bought a new tractor and i don’t even know why. I’m retard, i mean retired, and too old to go back into the dairy biz. maybe there’s a subconsious need to plant something. Something besides my ass in a chair and periods at the ends of sentences. Wish i had some topsoil. All we got is rocks and views, feeds a unit (a cow calf combo) per 20 acres, sez the county. i sez bwa ha ha, yes when it rains, which it don’t. i used to start a new small bis every 5 or 10 years, whenever i got bored with the previous. if this crap was happening when i was 30 i’d master it with a good or service in demand for the new world. as is, sunk deep in codgerhood, i just wanna clear the firing lanes beyond the wire.
Feb 5, 2009 - 4:50 pm 107. Armeggedon Rex:#102- Amen. Regrettably, much of the U.S. population lives in Democratic Party controlled states that severely restrict concealed carry. Even in states that are very CCW friendly, many public venues post “No Weapons Permitted” signs. A shopping mall in Utah last year comes to mind. Even there, it was up to an off duty policeman to bring down a demented shooter in a gun free zone. At the risk of boring you with an old cliché, perhaps it really is “Better to be tried by 12 than carried by 6”. In reference to my previous post, if the Islamic terrorists do their proper prior planning in order to prevent piss poor performance, they will pick targets in states that severely restrict concealed carry.
Feb 5, 2009 - 4:58 pm 108. Mongoose:Buddy, maybe you could strap some armament on the thing. Might come i handy down the road.
Feb 5, 2009 - 5:02 pm 109. buddy larsen:mongoose, search [ thirty year's war ]
Feb 5, 2009 - 5:12 pm 110. bob:i just wanna clear the firing lanes beyond the wire.
I tell ya again, Buddy–
Here’s The Thing For You
Feb 5, 2009 - 7:10 pm 111. JFSanders:Obama’s perception of the world will precipitate a war maybe a global one. It is rapidly becoming untenable for Putin, ET al. They will have to do something to distract the populous or risk falling afoul of the lamp post. It is funny that most of our conflicts have started under the gov’t of Dems. Although Lincoln was a Republican. But I believe he ran as one to sidestep the Jacksonian good ole boy network that he couldn’t gain entrance into.
You can only do what you can do. He has had his council. And now he rolls his die. If you have a care for your children and their children. You had better have a couple of plans and a backup for when those don’t pan out.
It might not be called America where my great grandchildren grow up but it will be free. And just like jihad johnny, I will gladly sacrifice my life for that cause. MOLON LABE!
Jim (Ready to ROLL!)
Feb 5, 2009 - 7:29 pm 112. Batman:I thought it was an article of faith for the left that the war on terror made us less safe. Now we are suddenly told that the war on terror didn’t make things any more dangerous than they were BEFORE September 11. As Emily Latella used to say, “Never mind.”
Feb 5, 2009 - 8:25 pm 113. buddy larsen:bob, i meant to thank you for that once before –my BnL in the earth-moving bidness over in souf Louisiana loves it & wants one –now my sister’s peestoff –ya can’t win. i don’t think i have enuff flatland to get much good of it. but it is a cool mo sheen alright.
Jim –i still can’t get thru to that senate phone number –the nation appears to be waking up at long last. If you listened to O’s speech tonite you’d have blowed a gasket. “We want EVERYbody’s ideas,: he said, “…but DO NOT bring me the tired, stale, old ideas from the past that GOT us here in the FIRST place!”
IOW, he’ll listen if you agree with him, and his party’s monstrous machinations to explode the global financial system, well, that didn’t happen. Reminds me of John Kerry asserting that there was no violence in SE Asia after his party forced USA to quit on allies in the field.
Feb 5, 2009 - 8:25 pm 114. Doug:Buddy, in the old days what did you feed your goats?
Armeggedon Rex:
Feb 5, 2009 - 8:30 pm 115. Doug:Hawaii’s not very gun friendly, so son decided it was time to do some grandfather your gun in purchases, including an AK Based Semi Auto 12 gauge, and an AR Based 50 Caliber!
We need Taxes, Spending, and Regulations to get out of this Buddy.
Feb 5, 2009 - 8:34 pm 116. buddy larsen:He’s refering to the last 8 when we tried no taxes, no spending, and no Regs.
Gotta face the facts.
they can’t ‘do’ spin –spin takes better quality neurons –they just flat out lie. everything about this whole administration so far has just been one big ass lie. ledbetter, s chip, all set up on lies. Signed away 38 billio today on s chip, sold on speeches that never mention that three quarters of the “eleven million uncovered kids” ARE covered, either by the old s chip or medicaid, whose families just don’t want to use them, nor that the new bill covers kids whose family income is up to 100K, nor that IF the F’n Dems would get out of the way and quit sandbagging the commerce clause and let insurance compete across state lines, a change in a cartel regulation, a change with with no losers but their pals who’d rather lobby DC than compete in the marketplace, who fatten up on DC’s cartel pricing which has now put millions more on gov’t health care (which now will coerce more doctors to subsidize the program personally and directly, resulting in fewer doctors and fewer smart kids even entering the field), and which will cost the taxpayers between $5000 and $10,000 per year per person for the rest of time just for starters, as well as larding up another bureaucracy full of high-maintenance low-motivation lifers with vast pensions.
But who can argue? It’s “For The Children”.
For the children who are now that much closer to growing up Joad, inheriting the grapes of wrath in a busted country. But who’s counting that little detail.
Feb 5, 2009 - 8:58 pm 117. buddy larsen:Doug, grain pellets, alfalfa, and graze –they get a lot more off scrub country than do the ruminants.
Feb 5, 2009 - 9:04 pm 118. Wadeusaf:President Obama seems to be betting that closing GitMo and ending involvement in Afghanistan and Iraq will be seen as a “butt out of their business” sort of.
The global economy and the market for oil has made such political posturing hollow and “good faith” gesturing short sighted.
What will the folks taught to fear Al Qaeda, and subject to the rule of the Taliban think? How will this gesture affect them and eventually us? I hope there is more to this than what we have seen, thus far, but I fear not. Without further proof I must conclude that President Obama is a bigger fool than I thought possible. He is not ready for the position he is in. He doesn’t even appear up to the challenges of the “adults” in his congress.
This will be a rough four years, and I do not believe there will be a reelection of this disaster.
Feb 5, 2009 - 9:49 pm 119. mark_b:91. Al Reasin:
We have little security at facilities that handle/use radioactive isotopes. I won’t get into specifics but think if these were stolen by people who were suicidal and released in a major financial center. Once rain spread it into inaccessible areas, it would be impossible to remove.
While there would be hot spots that could be contained, the general background would increase and who would be allowed or want to work there.
======================================================
You won’t need to wait for the rain.
The local firefighter will look to his FEMA guy, who will look at his meter and say “it’s not that bad wash it down the sewer,” and “you better get some more hoses up here.”
Dilution is the solution to polution. Bunch of ex Navy guys and civilian nuclear power guys trained the FEMA people about radiation.
Their are two cities in Japan that testify to the fact that you can clean up a really big nuclear mess without too much in the way of high tech contraptions.
Consider that radiation from point sources reduce in proportion the inverse square of distance and maybe slap a few tenth thicknesses of concrete on anything you can’s wash into the Hudson. Good to go.
That’s my approach.
Other people may say fill the building up with water and then filter the CRAP* out into a lead lined cask.
Costs more, but lots of overtime.
Oh, and put the finance guys in somewhere else. Isn’t there an empty bank building these guys can use?
*Chalk River Activated Products, later changed to Chalk River Unidentified Deposits (CRUD) by some PC supervisor.
Feb 6, 2009 - 12:24 am 120. slade:“We want EVERYbody’s ideas,: he said, “…but DO NOT bring me the tired, stale, old ideas from the past that GOT us here in the FIRST place!” – Obama
Not only that but Obama is demonstrating borderline genius in his use of ridicule to marginalize opposing opinions – disparaging the skepticism of spending as a stimulant as nothing more than “cable chatter” with a dismissive wave of his hand. And the news media flunks another IQ test by carpetbagging the “only 1% of this package is pork” theme with the expectation that it flies high enough to escape public awareness. In my hometown of 55,000 we’re getting funding from this bill to restore a miserable old bridge that was replaced years ago with a new one but still sits across the river because a group of local ladies decided it was an historical artifact. They took the money allocated for demolition to partially restore the north side and decorated the full length with blue lights for night-time viewing. The only problem is they forgot to budget in the $400/month electricity cost which apparently will come from the stimulus. Where there’s a will there’s a way.
Tractor therapy for recovering traders. Now buddy that’s another career.
The debate is being dishonestly framed but I am guessing it’s a done deal. Listened to a Chinese speaker on news this morning predict that he expects Chinese economy to begin recovery late third or fourth quarter this year, all contingent on a stimulus package coming from U.S. and the “stability” package coming from Geithner on Monday. Better warm up that tractor.
O’Reilly featured the rising narco-violence along the Mexican border where cop weaponry and manpower sits in a puny underfunded space in the looming shadow of a very serious cartel business. No hand waving or cable chatter there.
[BTW thanks for the promotion - sorry I wasn't there to accept it. My first executive decision would be to send the FBI to Austin to find this Buddy character and fly him into Washington - prying his cold dead hands off the tractor as required - or just load it all on a C-130 transport. ::))]
Feb 6, 2009 - 5:29 am 121. steveaz:Slade @117
“Where there’s a will there’s a way.”
A couple of dames pulled the old “Historic Monument” trick, huh?
Well a raft of Democrat lawyers are pulling for the UN’s “Right of Migration” in a similarly nefarious manner, too. Using their new found tool, “unlawful rendition,” to criminalize America’s repatriation of her unlawful immigrants, they have effectively chiseled a man-sized hole in the republic’s legal bounds and then, in the gap, begun crafting a back-door to the UN’s new “right.”
A lysed cell is a busted one, its cell membrane has failed and its cytoplasmic contents are spewed out into the surrounding environment to be consumed by decayers. At the rate we’re going, I predict America’ll be a lysed entity in a homogenized UN-mediated stew before 2020.
If not capitalistic nation-states, what’ll grow next on the predigested post-national substrate?
Feb 6, 2009 - 8:46 am 122. Storm-Rider:I’d say their goal is a world-wide hybrid Marxist/Islamist government where all people are not equal (the serfs will be equally poor and the elite Marxist-Secular/Islamist rulers will be the law), and where there will be no unalienable human rights to life, liberty or pursuit of happiness.
Feb 6, 2009 - 8:55 am 123. slade:If not capitalistic nation-states, what’ll grow next on the predigested post-national substrate?
I find myself more and more obsessed with mindless if not bizarre activity. Unlike Buddy, I can’t afford a tractor (if I could, up here the dames would probably get all tingly and bronze me astride my mighty wheels and then I’d never get out).
I worry about two things. The level of corruption is not sustainable. I grew up in Mayberry – time and place – where the bad boys (the girls weren’t bad just edgy) could still be reformed and all we had to deal with in a serious way were the psychotics and there were a few of those. Today is different. If the SEC exposure pans out – which it won’t – U.S. will get a temporary reprieve from the local abyss but the U.N. remains as a festering cesspool of money laundering. The BC crew’s joking and rhyming stories about Elliot Ness and the Chicago mob but really the corruption is beyond human redemption. The Kremlin mob buying off the SEC? Those of us less prosaically gifted run out of words.
Second, it seems to me, and I might be wrong, but I see a generational gap that is not necessarily dominated by Whiskey’s single women or the metrosexuals. Whiskey’s explanation has more demographic resolution, but people don’t change except in superficial ways – yesterday’s ducktails are today’s pink mohawks. What was lost – and the “loss” is treated with ridicule – is reverence for the national legacy – a legacy that remains as the only bulwark against the totalitarian impulses of Islamic Jihad and Chinese Communists. In the post-modern world, threats to freedom are ridiculed as hyperbolic (ala Carle op-ed) because we are all one people living on one world. Reality becomes a social construct refined through civilized negotiation. Truly articulated by others on this board with much greater clarity than I bring but it is that lack of respect for the Idea of USA that provides the foundation for the current economic “debate” and the future of this nation.
Feb 6, 2009 - 9:23 am 124. slade:And one more thing. The (well-armed) violence that’s being exported across the southern border to provide product for demand created by what demographic group (does anyone really think that poor people have the money to support an industry that has been estimated as around half of Mexico’s GDP?) – the narco-violence with the insidious ramping up of gang-related street violence makes the Chicago mob look like a bunch of girls having a spitball fight during high tea.
Feb 6, 2009 - 9:38 am 125. oMan:Re #118 and the question of what comes after capitalistic nation-states? Tribes and warlords. Which of course cannot support long-term investment or indeed any real investment, just consumption of whatever can be dug from the wreckage of the economy.
In this regard, I would recommend Michael Ignatieff’s mid-90’s “Blood and Belonging” which anatomizes ethnic cleansing and violence in the name of “nationalism” and concludes that maybe Hobbes was kinda right. It has only gotten worse since he toured Serbia, Croatia, Kurdistan, Ukraine, Northern Ireland, Quebec. He didn’t have time or need to check in on Palestine, Rwanda, Sudan, Somalia, Zimbabwe.
Feb 6, 2009 - 12:27 pm 126. buddy larsen:re I don’t know any area well but my own, so i guess i’ll be a bore and say that the phenotypes get along so well around Austin & San Antonio that they hardly even notice each other. The only troubles are the dope and illegal alien chronic open sores along the borderlines. Authorities are picking up some real troublemakers –revolutionista illegals with no identities –almost invariably when local Mexican-Americans tip ‘em off. And the authorities are about half Mexican-Americans themselves, and patriotic all the way. It’s just a real melting pot. it’s clear some bad asses are targeting the Mexican-American population, but the answer they’re getting back is “What? You’re taking back Texas? Pendejo, that’s MY Texas!” I’d say the biggest threat to this racial comity is probably the identity politics grievance freaks of DC and the taxpayer money they have to split people up with. when i say ‘biggest threat’ i mean bigger than dope, bigger than communism, bigger than islam, bigger than Hugo’s fat ass, bigger than all of them put together.
Feb 6, 2009 - 3:15 pm 127. oMan:Re #123 and others on drug running: how bad would it be if we legalize this crap? Takes away the de facto monopoly pricing advantage of the crim element. FDA is feckless but they could easily add weed and blow (and even opium) to the list of regulated materials. Gummint would make its tax, suppliers would get “inspected” and the huge markups would go away. Along with the drive-bys. I have no idea if this would really work but the analogy to alcohol seems very strong. As for the abusers: well, we would declare the real losers to be non compos mentis and put them under some kind of wardship.
I am trying to get the moral craziness out of the problem, because it has blinded us to the vulnerability this creates for very bad people to use the issue, and the money, to break down our social fiber.
Fire away, people.
Feb 6, 2009 - 4:31 pm 128. veracious:Yah, Carle is of the arrogant American branch; defined as those that think current America is untouchable; apparently externally as well as internally.
Wow, what a shock the arrogant are going to get, me thinks.
Wretchard,
Also, think of the British superior/arrogance during the Revolutionary War.
All,
Feb 6, 2009 - 4:38 pm 129. slade:It’s _not_ civilian casualities which count, this isn’t the goal of smart Jihad, it’s financial. The center of a city is not where it’s at. (loose lips are staying shut).
I’d say the biggest threat to this racial comity is probably the identity politics grievance freaks of DC and the taxpayer money they have to split people up with. when i say ‘biggest threat’ i mean bigger than dope, bigger than communism, bigger than islam, bigger than Hugo’s fat ass, bigger than all of them put together. – buddy
I recall vividly when you and Doug steamed out this issue. Wasn’t pretty. I could provide a list of citations describing the armory of the cartels, the list of violent military type assaults, the attacks on the Mexican police, the deaths relative to Iraq, and on and on. (Any research analyst can do this.) The Phoenix cops aren’t equipped to deal with it – manpower or weapons. The cartels are now co-opting gangs as street-level retailers – current FBI stats attribute 80% of violent crime in SW to the 1,000,000 gang members. Mexico is verging on failed state status. Short story is that I disagree with you. The identity politics of the Left is heinous and disruptive (and it seems to have a unaccountably long shelf-life) but the challengers to the podium are not exactly slouching toward Tucson – they are marching in stealthy lockstep with serious focus of purpose.
At present the narco-traffic is a vehicle for the expression of radical ideology once the border is fully compromised as a weakness that can be leveraged. My view is: (1) build the d@mn wall, (2) amnesty for property owners or some similar formula, and (3) legalize the stuff, at least as a trial (for the purist objections, unless we are prepared to effectively fund the effort – and I don’t see any stimulus funding for the WoD which suggests a pre-agreed wink-wink nod-nod approach, then drop it like a hot smokin ball.)
The other point about (3) is that the Pimco people are advocating “shock and awe” (they favor the spending stimulus) as the most effective way of reversing economic course. Well isn’t that interesting. I’m not necessarily advocating anything but as a comment on consistency, seems to me like legalization would be a “shock and awe” response. If that’s your preference.
Anyway I’m currently keeping a low profile so the local dames don’t bronze me, hang a plaque around my neck and bolt me to the old bridge as an Artifact.
Feb 6, 2009 - 6:03 pm 130. slade:One thing to consider, when the War on Drugs transmogrifies into a vehicle for exporting radical ideology, then rethinking is required.
I might be wrong but I am very concerned about the rising level of (well armed) violence, magnified by the extrapolated effect of gang distribution, that appears to be destabilizing not just the southern border, but the Mexican nation. If what I read is correct, it is serious.
Feb 6, 2009 - 6:19 pm 131. veracious:Yah, 126
I agree with this angle of the problem, too. Wise is he that knows: America is sliding from First World Nation into the Third World, having already become a Second World confused and corrupted land. The assumption, the illusion, that forces of law will continue to have the upper hand. That what has been will remain primarily the same.
I’m not degrading USA, it hurts. But arrogance and pretense of our high stature, as we plummet to the bottom is tom-foolery. We’ve high ideals, concepts crafted by our fathers, which are unknown, _unkown_, lost by the mass of people living under the aspice of them.
We have become a people that value everything by it’s cost and nothing more. Our new religion is Godlessness. Awake oh sleeping beauty!! Awake.
Feb 6, 2009 - 6:25 pm 132. veracious:@123 Buddy,
I not sure you’re getting it, the identity politics and corruption, is now joined together and funded (largely) by our own wealth, sent to those foreign lands which hate or wish to assimlate us.
The most powerful force of influence in the entire world is huge sums of money. These sums even trump a great war machine since they destroy it thru hundreds of different channels of influence and corruption. The life comes from their dollars.
Feb 6, 2009 - 6:30 pm 133. buddy larsen:I don’t think we’re actually disagreeing. I was trying to say that in the area that i know, the rads find no populace to hide in. mexican-americans around wonder what or who they’re supposed to overthrow, since they’re part of the establishment, the bourgeois la jente.
also, re Mexico as a failed state, granted there’s some real fighting going between the gov’t and the narcotrafficantes –but when it was quiet, it was worse –Calderone is taking his country back –he and others in the press think he’s winning finally. Mexico has the 12th largest economy in the world and an growing middle class that is educating it’s youth. and the two party system has taken hold –in a very short time, considering it had been one-party rule for nearly a century before Pan won a few years ago. The key to winning the narco war is Uribe of Colombia –and Chavez. Uribe reminds me now, with this sweep of Nov 4 by Chavez-friendly ‘what organized crime?’ far-lefters, of the Hmong mountain people of Laos after the ‘74 Dem sweep –staring up into the sky waiting for the Yellow Rain.
Feb 6, 2009 - 7:59 pm 134. Dave:Compadre Larsen: Verdad, muy verdad, amigo.
First thing folks have to learn how to do is to tell the difference between a Mejicano and a Tejano.
Then you need to know something about the regional cultural differences inside Mejico.
Peonage, debt-based slavery, was common in southern Mexico. Northern Mexico was cattle country. The work force there consisted of vaqueros. Vaqueros son caballeros, no campensinos.
As a result, Party of National Action, the limited government and free market party of
Fox and Calderon is strongest in the North.
The old PRI, and its even more commie schismatic offshoot, are rooted elsewhere.
Spain ran its colonies under a quadpartite system of racial classification with all wealth/income distribution according to ethnic grouping. (System was also given theological cover.) Over the years, skin tones have changed but not the pathology.
PAN et al reflect trying to finally break that grip.
The narco-traffickers represent continuing the unholy practices via a new way of funding.
Like Slade, I favor the repeal of drug laws.
Logically, that would de-fund our enemies.
However, the possibility exists that in the short run, the bad guys might well benefit from a lack of legal constraints on their activitites. And said short run just might
prove catastrophic. Proceed with caution.
In the meantime, all of Texas, (with the exception of the inevitable number of soreheads) is united in containing the trouble.
Last year, Juarez had a murder rate of 100 per 100,000. Is on pace so far this year to make that 150 per 100,000. Very scary for El Paso in particular. However, things are holding pretty well north of the Rio Bravo.
Feb 6, 2009 - 11:45 pm 135. buddy larsen:The Lone Star has moved beyond identity politics, Deo Gracias.
i got to throw in with the ‘legalize it’ crowd, too. the status quo is just bizarrely wrong. if the stuff is so bad, then take the perps behind the courthouse a la North Korea and shoot ‘em. that’d dry up the trade in a hurry, and cause far far less human damage. Except to the first 100 or so, who would be daid. Otherwise, legalize it. we can’t keep building prisons forever and spending what 10 or 30 billion a year losing to gangs making ten or a hundred times that, *because* of that. another self-licking cyanide ice cream cone that gets bigger the more it licks itself.
Feb 7, 2009 - 12:21 am 136. Dave:That scrufulous damnyankee, Abraham Lincoln, had lucid intervals. During one such period, he penned a good essay on how prohibition
destroys temperance.
He was talking about John Barleycorn. Pertains to other mood-altering chemicals as well.
And speaking of ethanol: Just read somewhere or other that of 32 plants, 5 have already gone bankrupt.
Oh yeah. I think we got a bad economic hammerfall due to hit in July. Minimum wage goes from $6.55 per hour to $7.25. Over 10% increase. Since most folks pay more already, this would not normally hurt. But at this time——–.
People making slightly more than the new minimum would be most directly in the line of fire I would say. Full disclosure: That includes me. 15 months ago I took a big reduction in paqy and went down to part-time in part because I sensed trouble coming where I was. Premature of me, but prudent as things turned out. My protection now is that it is not easy to make new hires in commercial aviation. Aside from me though, small businesses in small towns might well be hard hit and damage could spread from there elsewhere quickly.
Feb 7, 2009 - 12:50 am 137. buddy larsen:another rancid scam. the last bump spiked teen unemployment, as the Dems knew it would. It ain’t that they hate teens, necessarily, it’s just that so many union contracts use it as peg in their contact formulae. why can’t they leave the market alone –regular folk ain’t evil –dems just think they are because THEY themselves are.
Feb 7, 2009 - 1:02 am 138. Dave:Do you have any news from the oilpatch?
Reagan’s successful undermining of USSR petroleum in the mid 1980s was a brillant stroke but it did leave my homefolks as casualties.
BTW A childhood friend of mine had established a law practice in El Paso. When the wave an bankruptcies hit, he got called out to Midland-Odessa and specialized in same for 20 years.
Once upon a desperation, the executives of Harkness Energy, George W. Bush CEO, called upon him with a certified check for $25,000, his usual upfront fee for a Chapter 11.
He looked things over, made a few phone calls, got creditors to accept what they would get from a judge and Harkness continued without Chapter 11 protection.
This meant that Dubya could use his Harkness shares to seed his leaving Midland and doing his baseball venture with Texas Rangers. Which got him into the Governor’s Mansion which got him into the White House.
Ain’t it amazing what an Air Corps/Air Force brat from a small town in West Texas can do to influence global events?
Mysterious Ways? I reckon
Feb 7, 2009 - 1:23 am 139. buddy larsen:yeh –i think that’s why folks like to believe in destiny –otherwise facing up to the random hazard and pure dumb luck by which we make our way between the great eternities –is just too fantastical to cope with.
Feb 7, 2009 - 1:59 am 140. Dave:By now, am propping eyelids open with toothpicks. So shall retire until the morrow.
As usual, was a pleasure.
But to repeat: If you have any news of oilpatch, do pass it on. Appreciate it.
PS Did a write-up on life of Catherine Caradja. Got oohs and ahs from a few people.
Learned how the rescue op got started. COL Gunn parachuted to safety. He had enough rank/pull that if returned immediately, he could get planes flying. So her cousin, Romanian Ace Captain Constatine Canacuzene
took out the radio and other avionics from his Bf109, stuffed COL Gunn into said compartment and seat of pants to Italy.
Now had to get back and tell everybody B17s would convoy to Bari for pickup. Bf109 not exactly good for trip. With neither avionics nor “passenger” had weight and balance problem. So he hopped the fence and “borrowed” a P51 for the return trip.
COL Gunn parachuted the same day my father was KIA. Well, another 2nd Lt would not have done them very much good.
Then there was 1LT Charles Pinson leading an armed detail of released POWs into Bucharest vantage points to relay messages through her command post to the Romanians making their last stand.
Her escape in 1952 by hiding for 8 weeks in the hole of a Danube tanker. And on and on.
Sour note: Her visa to the States did not come through until 1955. Captain Cantacuzene never could get one and passed away in Spain.
Seems J Edgar Hoover fingered the two of them as communists and Soviet agents because of their friendship with a CIA agent he wanted to torpedo. Scumbag.
At any rate she made it home for two years before Gabriel blew her recall.
And while in the USA she rode Greyhound and stayed in YMCAs in order to talk to Jaycees,
Feb 7, 2009 - 2:23 am 141. Dave:Lions, Rotaries, Kiwanis, Masons etc about two things: The value of freedom and what to do to assist those behind the Iron Curtain.
Can you say “Reqgan Doctrine”? REmarkable story.
Oh Shucks: Forgot to mention. ONE state handbook mentions “The Angel Of Ploesti”.
Wanna guess which one? There is a little Lone Star in Romania now.
Gotta get some sleep now.
Feb 7, 2009 - 2:25 am 142. slade:Speaking of which, this was posted either here or at Elephant Bar:
Mexico’s Battle
isn’t going well according to this recent assessment.
If the link doesn’t work:
http://www.mccaffreyassociates.com/pdfs/Mexico_AAR_-_December_2008.pdf
Feb 7, 2009 - 5:41 am 143. slade:Comment with links on the status of Mexico’s war with the drug cartels lost to moderation.
http://www.mccaffreyassociates.com/pdfs/Mexico_AAR_-_December_2008.pdf
The thing to note is that it is at a tipping point – by no means a sure thing.
Feb 7, 2009 - 5:46 am 144. slade:Too early for me – I forgot to assign a ref – LifeoftheMind IIRC or possibly The Bar.
Feb 7, 2009 - 5:48 am 145. steveaz:I’ll chime in on the “legalize it” topic.
As part of their appeal to keep African Americans in the party, the Democrats WILL push for some sort of mass amnesty for all those brothers locked in prison for non-violent drug-related crimes (S. Hussein did this in 2003 to great effect).
But, by getting there first and loosening drug-controls (perhaps by declassifying certain of them), the GOP could achieve this same goal without the racist appeal, and maybe even get the credit for it.
If this decriminalization is couched as a general legislative effort aimed at liberalizing our nation’s overall economy, including tax cuts, eased permitting for small-businesses and contractors, and school choice (to spur the proliferation of private, educational outlets), then it might make sense to the average American voter in that context.
This context is important because, the argument that the War on Drugs, like the Federal Education mandates, is nothing more than the government performing parents’ protective and educational duties for them, doesn’t seem to sway America’s voting parents these days.
Even right-wingers (a group that I occasionally claim membership in), like Michelle Malkin, are happy to bid-away this parental oversight-duty to the gub’mint, which highlights another one of the contradictions that the so-called “party of personal responsibility” has allowed to complicate its “freedom with responsibility” message.
I think this contradiction is the GOP’s achilles heel, and the Left is poised to strike the party there.
Feb 7, 2009 - 8:49 am 146. slade:I don’t think we’re actually disagreeing. I was trying to say that in the area that i know, the rads find no populace to hide in. mexican-americans around wonder what or who they’re supposed to overthrow, since they’re part of the establishment, the bourgeois la jente. – buddy
They scheduled a revolution and nobody showed.
If I am interpreting the news right, your community luckier than others – where the cartel-ganag combo is reaching lethal proportions, as per the link above. Sure, could be a scare tactic or ploy for financial aid but I think not. The Mexican government has adopted a courageous policy but whether they can win the war is still in question. My view of course.
Feb 7, 2009 - 9:06 am 147. slade:I think this contradiction is the GOP’s achilles heel, and the Left is poised to strike the party there. – steveaz
I was thinking along those lines myself – downloading personal responsibility for choices back to the family unit where it properly belongs. The “war” itself has no more rational justification after abandoning the fundamental: don’t fight a war you aren’t prepared to win.
And yes, the Party has been reduced to party with the occasional hardy but definition is no longer firmly attached. I trace it back to end of Cold War under Reagan. The Republican/Conservative commitment to call it personal values was weakened by the finacial temptations opened by globalized markets. (The business community tried and failed to open these markets under Reagan – had to wait for the appeal to motivate Clinton the Progressive. Some going around coming around.)
Feb 7, 2009 - 9:20 am 148. oMan:I have only been to Mexico once, before Xmas to Mexico City. Great people struggling to maintain order and harness their entrepreneurial spirit; but a dark cloud of narco-terrorism over all. TV and radio ads, campaign billboards, news stories –all dwell on the power of the drug gangs. Yes, you could imagine taking on the bad boys with bigger guns; but they already know how to counter that (very expensive and protracted and uncertain) game. Legalization would destroy their business model overnight. It would need to be part of a larger plan to follow up on the bad actors, capture or co-opt them, and create “legit” industry. As with tobacco, the gummint could then get fat on taxes and constant “don’t do this” messaging and detox programs. Not pretty but I think far cheaper and, never mind cost, it breaks the impasse where we will just keep failing. It also aligns with a libertarian mindset; to a degree anyway. I really don’t want to be taxed to pay for some idiot’s crack habit and the sequelae thereof, so that’s another big topic to work on.
Feb 7, 2009 - 9:26 am 149. We Need A Politically Incorrect Political Party « Civilian Irregular Information Defense Group:[...] alone, Gulchers, Constitutionalists, Appleseeds, bitter clingers, Christians, and Patriots, plus whiskey’s blue collar men, married women, suburban marrieds, small business owners, independent [...]
Feb 7, 2009 - 12:31 pm 150. Subotai Bahadur:Not to rain on parades, but there seems to be an assumption that the illegal import of drugs would end the moment it became legalized, and taxed. Any legalization will, in fact, involve taxation. It is not going to be a small amount of taxation. Look at what they are doing to cigarettes [n.b. - I don't smoke, so have no direct dog in that fight] as far as punitive taxation. Right now the tax differential between liberal states and cities, and the tobacco producing states, is such that it is highly profitable to smuggle cigarettes by the semi-load. We are approaching a cusp point in excise taxation in tobacco.
Some dozen or so years ago, when the Liberal Party in Canada was trying to tax cigarettes out of existence, I was visiting in Vancouver, BC. I looked like an American tourist. Blue jeans, flannel shirt, sneakers, old Tuffy coat [police style jacket], and a hat from the USS YORKTOWN CG-48. On the street in the original Chinatown in Vancouver near downtown I was openly approached on the street by people offering to sell me tax free cigarettes. The tax had brought it up to about $5.00 a pack, and even otherwise law abiding citizens were loading their cars up with cigarettes on our side of the border and smuggling them in. I declined, pointing out that 1) I did not smoke, 2) if I did, I was American and could get them cheaper than in Canada, and 3) I wished them good luck as anyone beating the “Revenoors” had my blessing.
It finally got to the point that the Liberal Party, of all people, had to give up and cut the taxes to a point that was just barely bearable by the Canadian population, because smuggling had become so rampant. This is as close to original sin as a Liberal can come to, but they had no choice. They had passed that cusp point.
Now, we cannot expect narcotics to be taxed at a lower rate than cigarettes, and to be honest it will be a good deal higher, as high as they can make it without passing that cusp. The Democrats’ view of excise taxes being what it is, it is going to be real expensive.
The “average” drug user is not exactly an upwardly mobile, prosperous type. Indeed, as the economy collapses, there are going to be bloody few of that type left outside of the Federal government.
OK, pretend you are Joe Slacker, or Joe Underclass. You want your stash of whatever drug of choice. You can pay $100 for FDA certified “head fryer”, or you can pay $50 for twice as much of smuggled, uninspected, uncertified, untaxed “head fryer”. Which is Joe Slacker or Joe Underclass going to buy, especially since the illegal marketing chains are already in existence and they are used to using them?
Drugs will be smuggled to fill the market demand. The Federal government will still be at war with drug smugglers, not because they care about the nation’s health or the danger of drugs any more; but because it is tax revenue. The motivation will be the same as chasing moonshiners, but with far more money involved. Hell, they will be running commercials on TV for the Federally licensed stuff, promoting drug use.
Then there is the creation of an additional class of drug lobbyists. Already segments of our government are bought off by the drug smugglers. Now there will be another lobby of the “legal” drug companies wanting to pay to shut down the illegals. Net result, Congressmen and bureaucrats get paid off by both sides, which is a politician’s wet dream.
Those who believe that a legalized supply would flood the market, forcing down prices, and thus take the profit out of the business do not understand the dynamics involved. Crack cocaine was so common in the 1990’s that the street price had dropped to the point where an elementary school kid could get a rock with his lunch money. Even at that price and supply, there was enough profit to make Pablo Escobar a very wealthy man. And allowed him to buy national and state governments. Looking at this group of tax-evading lops coming into government, how many of them are not for sale?
Finally, there are some classes of drugs that are too dangerous to be legalized. Opiates come to mind. Admittedly, being Chinese, I have a certain viewpoint about opium, which almost destroyed China. But that drug and others will certainly be on some sort of banned list. And the drug wars will continue.
Y’all can argue the pros and cons of drug legalization all you want. However, to do it intelligently, you have to take into account all of the results, and you have to realize that narcotics traffickers will do what they can to maintain their markets and profits, and that the Government will do what it can to maintain and increase its profits and control over individuals. No magic wands, no tooth fairy, no Unicorns spewing “Hope” and “Change” skittles from their nether regions.
Subotai Bahadur
Feb 7, 2009 - 3:10 pm 151. slade:No magic wands, no tooth fairy, no Unicorns spewing “Hope” and “Change” skittles from their nether regions. – Subotai Bahadur
Nor do I think any of the advocates were suggesting a rosy scenario. My “belief” – and it has not been proven – is that civilization has to changes the terms of the agreement at periodic intervals as a means of fostering change, the kind that moves in the right direction – or at least moves. Your viewpoint is as pessimistic as the current policy. Fundamental to the human condition is that the equation has no grand unified solution. So we reshuffle the deck – for inspiration – to get the creative juices flowing. End of History? Not for awhile.
Feb 7, 2009 - 3:38 pm 152. Belmont Club » The binomial distribution:[...] brings to mind some of the issues arising from the debate between Dick Cheney and former CIA analyst Glen Carle about the danger that Islamic terrorists might sucessfully attack an American city. The [...]
Feb 7, 2009 - 4:54 pm 153. slade:Desert Rat @ Elephant Bar does the math:
$500 million in military aid to Mexico, when their nationalized oil company sold US 1.296 million barrels of oil per day, in November. At say $40 per barrel,
that’s $52 million a day.
Why would they need our $500 million to keep from becoming a ‘Failed State”. With a GDP of $1.578 trillion (2008 est.), the $500 million is just bribe money.
I mean Carlos Slim loaned the NYTimes $250 million, at 14%, but it does show that if the Mexican elites were in any real fear, they’d raise their own $500 million, easily enough.
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It’s a Mad Mad Mad Mad Complicated World.
Feb 7, 2009 - 6:10 pm 154. buddy larsen:800,000 = # of Americans arrested in 2007 on possession charges. reform gonna have to get past the 800,000 lawyers, and secondarily whoever else is involved in the industry by way of it is makes them some money if not an entire living.
Feb 7, 2009 - 7:03 pm 155. slade:I don’t disagree buddy, but only note that argument was noticable for it’s absence when NAFTA was passed – in fact Clinton took it upon himself to up the ante from 200,000 “new and better” jobs as per technical analysis to 2,000,000 – his favorite number. Loss of manufacturing sector jobs not much more than a blip on the radar screen. Sure, life an’t fair. But the debate can be monitored for honesty and consistency. Just for the exercise mind you which seems to be the only thing that matters any more – the Form of it All.
Feb 7, 2009 - 8:09 pm 156. slade:The other point is one you made recently about process validating the event/phase wrt the robber barons during the industrial age. The subsequent era was better in terms of quality of life. I don’t think the argument can be made that anyone actually knew that at the time anymore than we can predict the results of drug legalization. The economic shifts will be enormous but it never stopped the industrial age or globalization. I doubt very much that regulatory restraint – as a reflection of our suddenly acquired sober concern for the consequences of our actions – will constrain the development of biogenetic applications. There’ll be a lot of debate but end of day money talks. Lawyers make more than machinists from Detroit.
Feb 7, 2009 - 8:24 pm 157. oMan:Subotai (#149): great comment. I agree that the existing suppliers will have enormous incentive and resource to protect their business, and that even with “legal” competitors driving down the price, their marginal costs are so low that they will still wield enormous clout. And since they have zero zip zilch scruples, they will wield said clout to cow the new competitors. Look at Mob fights for control over merely borderline businesses like gambling, prostitution, etc. As for the demand side: you give a compelling example of how Joe Loser will quickly pick the illegitimate product if the tax and other regulatory burdens become evident. So the grey market/parallel trade/illegal import channel problem will be very large. How then can we get a reasonable grip on the likely cost/benefit of legalization, with various assumptions about tax rates, demand, etc? If there isn’t a model, there should be.
Feb 7, 2009 - 9:44 pm 158. Dave:The key to chemical dependency is not the seller, it is the user.
I would like to see copious quantities of all
currently illegal substances become legally
available overnight and dirt cheap to boot.
I’m talking 5 kilos of 95% pure heroin for less than $100 retail. Then, we see a spectacular number of funerals in a very short time frame. After that, the drug market will shrink to much more appropriate size.
Harsh? yes. Inhumane? No. For decades, the law has partially protected certain numbers of people from self-induced consequences. As a result, their numbers have grown geometrically. Some day or other, a ruthless nature will weed our garden for us. Better we do it ourselves so that the collateral damage will be minimized.
PS Subotai: De-toxification from opiates is
considerably easier and much less life-threatening than de-toxification from alcohol. Yeah, the patient tends to wish he or she was dead, but there is little danger of additional damage, let alone death. Subsequently, addicts have a recovery rate effectively the same as alcoholics.
Father James Martin, SJ, is a leading authority on alcoholism. He has pointed out that the one thing that reversed a healthy decline in the rate of alcoholism was, you guessed it, prohibition.
Also, during prohibition, shootouts on this side of the border were darned near a nightly occurence in some sectors. See the stories of Tom Threepersons, Bill Jordan, Charlie Askins and Harlan Carter. These went down to nothing immediately after repeal.
I would not expect equally Quick results from repeal of drug laws. That is because the contraband of yesteryear was legally manufactured by reputable persons in countries of orgin. But I would expect the course of human events to follow the same general pattern.
Prohibition in any form amounts to prior restraints. Prior restraints are always disasterous.
Feb 7, 2009 - 10:42 pm 159. Subotai Bahadur:# 157 Dave
Let us postulate that the effects of legalization on your terms [cheap, copious, etc] would be as stated. What are the odds, under any conceivable political reality, that this will happen in this country; that given legalization that the government will refrain from distorting the market with either taxes, tariffs, or fees for inspections, etc.? In an ideal world, you would have the funerals noted. But we do not have an ideal world, and to achieve it would require the funerals of pretty much the entire governing caste of this country. It just is not going to happen, or if it does; drug legalization is not going to be a primary concern in the aftermath.
We are governed by unindicted criminals and egotistical fools. And no, that is not a metaphor for the two parties. It is a description of the makeup of the elected officials of both major parties.
The economics, and the political parameters we are stuck with, are such as to make sole concentration on the demand side futile. I will not go into details, but unless we can find a way to raise the marginal costs of production, financial and other costs, so as to reduce the profit margins to the point where the supply portion is constrained, we are not going to be able to work with the demand side. If the goal is to reduce the funding of our enemies, and to reduce the gang violence on and inside our borders, the problem has to be attacked on both those fronts, and on a number of others.
My point in # 149 was that the argument against the current policy [which is a failure] has been dominated thoroughly by a simplistic demand for legalization, with no real examination of the effects on and the reactions of the major players to that legalization. All of those players have both the power and the motivation to make relatively minor adaptations to maintain or enhance their dominance and make things worse than the current status quo.
There are no simple solutions. There are no sure solutions. There may not even be a solution. Whatever we try, in order to work, is probably going to be more complex and difficult than can be stated here. And any attempted solution is going to have to adapt to countermoves by enemies, attacks by other enemies not involved in the drug problem, and self destructive actions by those who cannot see farther than the short term, and who assume that the whole country can collapse and somehow they will be exempted.
Two [of many] historical rules of thumb:
1) The natural state of mankind throughout most of his history is a combination of poverty and slavery; our current civilization is an anomaly.
2) In the end, the barbarians usually win; due to the failure of the will of the civilized.
Subotai Bahadur
Feb 8, 2009 - 12:19 am 160. Dave:Subotai: Gotta go to work. No time for lengthy answer.
Will say this: Current airplane is in power dive with tail assembly shot off.
Suggest trying new-fangled gadget called parachute. Maybe it works, maybe it doesn’t. What is there to lose?
Likewise: An absence of statutory law is far easeir to correct that a surplus of statutes. The barbarians have ALWAYS been aided by excessive quantities of government, NEVER by lack of quantity.
Feb 8, 2009 - 10:29 am 161. steveaz:Subotai Bahadur,
Nice last post, sir. Only one disagreement: you may be wrapping your words around a false-dichotomy. The goal is freedom tempered by responsibility, not freedom alone.
I agree that freedom without the “r” word is a dangerous frontier to construct a country in. It’s not for the feint-of- heart. That said, dangerous frontiers are where Americans, by definition, bravely go. It’s in our nature to stretch envelopes and test barricades.
Or, it used to be.
I think the GOP can embrace that spirit under the rubicon of liberalizing the economy, without yielding on the responsibility-half of its platform. It’ll be a tight needle-hole to thread, but, taking a “less-is-more” approach to economic regulation (which, if its Reagan’s party still, should come naturally) will guide the party’s reformers safely through the hole.
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