58 Comments

1. Sidney Raphael:

Sorry, I disagree with your statement “Terrorists, like investors, base their present investment decisions on what they believe the return on their effort is going to be.”

As the Strategy Page likes to say, these people believe they are ‘On a Mission from G-d.” Rational things like statistical consequences don’t matter. Only Allah knows the connection between cause and effect. When you’re on a Mission from G-d you’re supposed to do your best and let Allah sort out the reasons.

Feb 7, 2009 - 7:36 pm 2. E. Nigma:

Incorrect answer, Sidney.

They emulate “The Prophet”, and hope to gain money, arms, prestige in society, and probably the rule of Saudi Arabia, all “worldy things”. In this way they please the Prophet Mohammed, their intercessor for Allah. Allah himself is unknowable and unreachable, by their beliefs. They only mouth that nonsense about “72 virgins” for the crowd of confused Muslims that is undecided and to befuddle the Western media with their alleged fearlessness and willingness to die. The powerful among the Muslims are always willing to have the lesser men die on their behalf, of course.

Osama bin Ladin has stated all along that his first priority was to “raise the Umma”, meaning the body of believing Muslims, to the state of Jihad. Significant members of the House of Saud have had the temerity to work with the Crusaders (that’s the US, among others), and are thus ripe for war and execution by True Believers, per their own Koran.

Feb 7, 2009 - 7:58 pm 3. wretchard:

It’s true that the Jihad is supposed to be an command from Allah. But if things were this simple, the leve of the Jihad should be invariant. The recent drop in activity and its resurgence suggests it is influenced by other things. Fear, the availability of funding, perceived opportunity etc.

It also may be the case that if Islamists see the Jihad fail, it will be interpreted as a chastisement from Allah. Surely if the Jihad were just, then it would prosper against the Great Satan. If it is seen to be unsuccessful, then is that not a sign that Allah himself regards that particular Jihad as unworthy or unholy? Clearly if the al-Qaeda were successful they would cite that fact as “proof” Allah was on their side. If they are unsuccessful is it not proof that Allah is against them?

So while there is the element of the divine in Islamic extremism, it is all intermediated by man. My guess is many Jihadis may, rightly or wrongly, feel they will have an easier time of it in the future. After all, there were not a few who regarded the 2008 elections as “proof” Allah had delivered their great enemy into their hands.

Feb 7, 2009 - 8:06 pm 4. Derek:

Sydney: Sure. They’re on a mission from god. So they try to find some schmuck to blow himself up, or some rich guy to write a big check. They are not yet on a mission from god. Unless they can be convinced that it’ll work.

With Bush, they pulled off a few big ones and lost two countries and thousands of jihadi. With it their prestige and ability to recruit.

With Obama, what would they lose? They will find out.

So will we.

Derek

Feb 7, 2009 - 8:24 pm 5. Robert:

What’s your point? Really?

al-Qaeda were on the rise at least a year ago. Where were we? In Iraq. Listen I supported Iraq but it was an unmitigated disaster.

There has been no mention of “reaching out” to the Taliban or al-Qaeda … in fact there is still a hunt on last time I checked.

I used to follow your blog and spread it far and wide but now, I’m sorry to say, you sound scared, focused on something else aside from reality.

Feb 7, 2009 - 8:36 pm 6. wildernesscalling:

Yes, Al Qaeda does see Hope and Change are in office, in fact Putin see’s Hope and Change and we re not quite cetain yet if China see’s Hope and Change in office, the problem is the Hope and Change in office they see is not the Hope and Change the Deaf, Dumb and Blind in America see…Glad I am outside the blast zone of the nearest large city and up wind to boot! just hope the blast from the up wind city far away is “far enough”! Good night America…

Feb 7, 2009 - 8:56 pm 7. joe buzz:

I could have sworn that there was an article or two within the past couple of weeks regarding pre-election contact by the Obama camp with AlQaeda. TimesUK or BBC. Of course a google search wont turn them up.
Evidently the Saudi Rehab program got into some intense finger painting and other useful second grade level expressionism. Nothing to be concerned about if the Sauds are asking for assistance to find a few wayward budding artists….

Feb 7, 2009 - 9:04 pm 8. wretchard:

What’s your point? Really?

The point is that a large component of the “war on terror” or whatever you want to call it is perception. It’s not a new concept. Deterrence during the Cold War was largely based on perception. What we want to do is project the perception that it is unproductive to attack the US in order to discourage people from doing so. Often, the deterrence obviates the need to actually fight.

We can measure how effectively deterrence is projected by seeing if it deters. By observing enemy behavior. If they are reluctant to advance, they are deterred. If they are seen to be leaving their former state of discouragement and starting up again, then its reasonable to conclude that perception is failing.

So when it is reported that al-Qaeda is making a come back on the Arabian peninsula it raises questions about what may be heartening them. Now one swallow doesn’t mean a summer, but it’s something to watch.

Feb 7, 2009 - 9:04 pm 9. joe buzz:

Oh come now benevolent host. We all know that those on the left greatly prefer the role of the reactive victim over that of the offensive proactive aggressor.

Feb 7, 2009 - 9:18 pm 10. Heh:

There is no “Allah”. Sorry.

Islamic terrorists will strike again in the US. Not today, not tomorrow, but oh you can bet they will. Its their nature, like the scorpion of the fable.

Feb 7, 2009 - 9:43 pm 11. heathermc:

Robert: This is so boorrring, but…IRAQ IS DOING OK!!! It has just gone through a quiet non-nonsense no-Franken ELECTION!!!

America has been VERY SUCCESSFUL in Iraq.

OK??? Do we have to go over this again, Robert”?????

Feb 7, 2009 - 10:02 pm 12. mark_b:

Robert:

What’s your point? Really?

…

I used to follow your blog and spread it far and wide but now, I’m sorry to say, you sound scared, focused on something else aside from reality.
========================================================

This is called “poisoning the well”. It is the same technique that President Obama uses to create dissonance between republicans and Rush.

Of course it works. It won Obama an election.

(He accused his opponents of being on the side of Big Media and the lobbyists, yet check his appointments.)

So your technique is to put forth the assertion that Iraq is a failure because Wretchard is scared.

The only way to lose Iraq is for President Obama to piss it away, much like he is doing with America’s trust.

Feb 7, 2009 - 10:48 pm 13. mark_b:

And money.

Feb 7, 2009 - 10:49 pm 14. Leo Linbeck III:

There once was a sheikh named Osama
Whose bombs were a source of high drama

When Bush was the chief
He encountered much grief

But he’s hoping for change with Obama

L3

Feb 7, 2009 - 11:35 pm 15. buddy larsen:

robert, you forgot to tell us you’re a “lifelong republican”, too. Most of the time, you folks fit it in right before the “unmitigated disaster” part. i’m sure wretchard will let you do a re-write.

Feb 7, 2009 - 11:35 pm 16. NahnCee:

If Al-Queda is rebuilding in (Saudi) Arabia, will they be using it as a country to regroup or will they actively be going after Saudi targets like Aramco and Prince Naif’s downtown Security building?

I understand why Al-Queda sprang up in Saudi in the first place since they had all those blood-thirsty imam’s screeching “death to America” every Friday but I thought said imam’s had all been made offers they couldn’t refuse and had been put out to pasture and early retirement.

So why would Al-Q be regrouping in Saudi Arabia, unless they think the Saudi government won’t come after them (going back to their previous agreement that if you don’t bomb us, we won’t hunt you), and also won’t let the Americans come into Arabia to chase after them.

BTW — Robert, honey? Your vitriol is really dated and unacceptable as a post here at B.C. because it’s just dumb and stupid. You might want to take your dog and pony show someplace else on the internet where the denizens are not quite as well informed.

Feb 7, 2009 - 11:37 pm 17. Leo Linbeck III:

There once were 11 young Saudi
Whose prospects were looking quite cloudy

But when Gitmo was closed
Off to parts undisclosed

They went to become again rowdy

L3

Feb 7, 2009 - 11:44 pm 18. buddy larsen:

oops, forgot my intended post –that so much of the war is, in our enemies and our adversaries and our rivals and yes our clients and our friends and allies eyes, certainly over who shall or shall not influence the price-makers of OPEC, that is, the house of saud.

Not much degradation of status quo, chronically dicey as is even in our ballsiest best of times, will be needed before elements of the 30,000 strong family start to contemplate the meaning of hope and change, and the telephone, with an eye to hedging their geopolitical bets.

After all, the country is huge, and empty, and is –unless protected by someone who means it, and who also has a nearby army and a dozen willing carrier battle groups –practically indefensible.

It doesn’t need a genius, or even you, robert, to note that bellicose and powerfully armed and strategically minded and matched exporter/producers are writhing in pain at $40, unable to long sustain at that level their powers in their own countries, and are thus almost 100% certain to have men and arms and plans in motion as we speak, to address that price situation at the first opportune moment.

When the address comes, expect it to be well planned and executed, and based on a far more deft reading of the American psyche and American leadership, than that of 9/11/01.

The fear factor, the deterrence, the good guys have enjoyed for eight years across the globe, including Manhattan and the USA, has, you can be absolutely certain, been based a great deal on there being nothing more than imaginary map lines in the sand between willing American infantry and the moon castles of the jihadi mullahs and pashas.

The great southern, oilfield-proximate base of this deterrence has just, last November 4, begun to fade like the cheshire cat.

Soon, like the cheshire cat, there will be but the smile yet visible. whose smile is it likely to be?

The answer to that question, robert, will be the place and time that will make the call on “disaster”, whether it will be mitigated or unmitigated. you can’t make that call from here, now. nobody can.

So you’re just making noise, to make yourself feel better, because you’re worried. Well, we’re all worried, kid.

Feb 8, 2009 - 12:23 am 19. buddy larsen:

heh -L3 got de virus too! ok–

The shimmering smile of the Cheshire
o’er American withdrawal pressure

could be O’s with a sama
or O’s with a bama

as for either or both, it’s a pleasure

Feb 8, 2009 - 12:47 am 20. barry 0351:

Who is G-d?

Feb 8, 2009 - 6:10 am 21. buddy larsen:

Problem of grandkids-will-have-to-pay-for-the-stimulus-bill: Solved!

Feb 8, 2009 - 6:32 am 22. outa my league:

Gandhi dineth not on Saint Cow
But pleaseth to fleas
and How!

*********

Buddy, what virus?

Feb 8, 2009 - 6:41 am 23. Mongoose:

Robert: Iraq was hardly an “unmitigated disaster”. All things considered, it was one of the most successful military operations of its scale in history–certainly in the history of our country. It would have even more quickly and robustly handled had it not been for the seditious and mendacious reactions of the Democrat Party and the American left, and the betrayals of the leaders and pundits of the so called “International Community” and the “International Left”.

It is this treason to the USA and the West that was the “unmitigated disaster”, and apparently you make common cause with these traitors, though you are being less than honest about this, it would see,

Much to his credit, Bush rose above all of this, kept a clear and proper moral vision, and persevered and prevailed. He was one of the few public men in the West possessed with the moral rectitude, probity and courage to do this. Should our civilization survive the attacks of the Left and Isalm, he will be acclaimed for this, not denounced.

Feb 8, 2009 - 6:54 am 24. Mongoose:

Buddy: we need to start an “Obama shave” competition. Ok, a tradition.

Obama squinted….

Feb 8, 2009 - 6:57 am 25. Mongoose:

it would seeM*

Feb 8, 2009 - 6:58 am 26. buddy larsen:

oml, the limerick virus

Feb 8, 2009 - 7:00 am 27. Mike Sylwester:

Wretchard:
al Qaeda doesn’t seem too worried.

There is not a place on the planet where Al Qaeda members appear and operate publicly. They hide, because they must hide.

Probably almost all those 85 who are being sought by the Saudi Government are hiding outside of Saudi Arabia. Inside of Saudi Arabia, any of them might be recognized by a former friend or associate who might report him immediately to the security police.

We might imagine that Saudi Arabia now is in a situation similar to Iran during the 1970s or the Soviet Union during the 1980s. The dissidents might be only a few years away from a surprising victory.

It seems to me, though, that Saudi Arabia now is in a situation similar to Iran during the 1960s or the Soviet Union during the 1970s. The regime will continue to infiltrate, disrupt and crush opposition movements successfully for the foreseeable future.

The average Saudi citizen still appreciates stability and fears radical change. Al Qaeda’s last attack in Saudi Arabia was directed against a major Saudi oil complex. That is not the kind of attack — against the country’s main economic resource — that will attract much support among Saudi citizens. It’s no wonder that Al Qaeda has not been able to organize another attack at all during the subsequent three years.

In 1997 Al Qaeda organized attack on the Egyptian tourist business by massacring 60 foreign tourists at the Luxor Temple. Since then, about a dozen years have passed without another terrorist attack against the regime governing Egypt.

Using that example, we might forecast that another decade might pass in Saudi Arabia without another major attack against its regime. The Saudi government has a lot of money to buy informants and surveillance equipment. The Saudi government is a tough nut for Al Qaeda to crack.

How many former radicals have passed through the Saudi rehabilitation program and have remained rehabilitated? The program should not be judged only on the basis of its failures.

Feb 8, 2009 - 7:02 am 28. Dave in NC:

Mike; we really don’t care about those “who have remained rehabilitated;” it’s the failures who will attack us.

Feb 8, 2009 - 8:09 am 29. buck smith:

“…other things. Fear, the availability of funding, perceived opportunity etc.”

One would think availability of funding is down compared to 2005 to 2008, due to the price of oil. But of course 9-11 attacks were funded in a time (08 to 01 when price of oil averages maybe $20 to 25, maybe half of today’s price.

The smart move for Obama is not to put more troops in Afghanistan. He shoud put 20,000 troops in Yemen in a surprise attack. Don’t worry about building s democracy, don’t stay long, just try to kill a lot of bad guys. It is a sweet move, and I will ask for any payment from the O for offering it up

Feb 8, 2009 - 8:13 am 30. Jay:

Richard, I wish even one of my undergraduates in my economics class has absorbed economic reasoning as you show in your posts here. Incentives matter. Incentives to some are religious or cultural in nature. Americans are mostly money oriented.
There is a lot of hate in SA against the “royal” princes. The oil there in Shiite areas. The Saudi sheiks are from the highland of northern Arabia. The Yemen tribes would love to overturn the regime.
The Bushes and Clinton were ignorant about Islam. Obama is not in a special way. why did he go to Pakistan as a college student? That is bizarre. Go to Istanbul, Cairo, even Damascus and Beirut. Pakistan??

Feb 8, 2009 - 8:50 am 31. wildernesscalling:

Folks! Greed and Narcissism have taken control of America, this means the little guy is expendable, the price is right for the enemy to get what they want (so long as “deniability” is there) The bad guys will only get a hit on the noggin if it is show of face necessary or “Tail wagging the dog” is required to throw off the public interest (I do not think it would be necessary seeing how the MSM is “0” number 1 friend) other wise donations and gifts will ensure the US is gutted (and robbed of technological edge) of any meaning full action. This is Jimmy redux with Clintonian spinners…

Feb 8, 2009 - 9:16 am 32. peterike:

No need to fear, the Might O is on top of it.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – President Barack Obama plans to expand the membership of the National Security Council and increase its authority to set strategy on a wide range of domestic and international issues, The Washington Post reported on Saturday, quoting his national security adviser…

He said sections of the government not traditionally part of the council would be brought in on a case-by-case basis — he named the Energy Department, Commerce Department and Treasury, and all the law enforcement agencies, including the Drug Enforcement Administration.

See? Now everything will be part of “security”! Don’t you feel safer already?

Feb 8, 2009 - 9:35 am 33. Mike Sylwester:

Dave in NC (@28):
we really don’t care about those “who have remained rehabilitated;” it’s the failures who will attack us.

That’s true, but it’s not true that the only dynamic in the situation is that some Saudis intend to commit mass murders of Americans.

When people belong to a cult for a while and then drop out, then that is a problem for the cult. The remaining cult members cannot simply shrug off the others’ abandonment.

Apostates contradict the cult’s claim to permanently convincing ultimate truth.

When the cult is essentially a criminal enterprise, then the departure of former members also constitutes a security threat. The former members now are potential informants and witnesses.

A Saudi young person has various options. One option is to drift into a cult like Al Qaeda. Another option is to develop into a successful member of Saudi society. Other options are to develop into a non-Wahabbi Moslem or into a secularist who challenges Saudi society from a moderate or modern position.

The young Saudis who are considering their options will perceive the drop-outs from Al Qaeda as an important consideration in their own personal decisions.

Modern society will continue to be very attractive for many young people in extremely retarded societies like Saudi Arabia. We are living in an age of the Internet, of international travel, of cultural interaction. Is this an age when more and more young people will become infatuated with fantasies about terrorist heroes — or when fewer and fewer will do so?

Feb 8, 2009 - 9:58 am 34. NahnCee:

Mike, in your discussion of Saudi Arabia, as in most all of your other posts, you strike me as being naive to the point of stupid.

What if the famed “reabilitation program” is merely Saudi authorities bringing the little darlings in, patting them on their pointy little heads and assuring them that while their motives were pure, and everyone in Saudi ARabia also wants to kill Americans, now is not quite the right time to pursue those activities. That if the caught terrorist will just get married on the government’s dole, have lots of sex for the next few years and pop out many kids which the Saud government will promise to take care of, then when things have calmed down a little bit, said terrorist will be free to go out into the world again and try to kill as many Americans as he can count using both fingers and toes. You may call that being “rehabilitated” and a successful program. I do not.

//

“Inside of Saudi Arabia, any of them might be recognized by a former friend or associate who might report him immediately to the security police.”

Isn’t the whole problem since 9/12/01 that Muslims do not, ever, rat out other Muslims who are planning bad stuff? If they won’t report this sort of planning in the relative security of the United States, why on earth would you think they’d report their brothers, fathers, uncles and cousins in a country where that would probably mean the reporter would also be scooped up for questioning?

AND, always remember too, that women simply do not exist in Saudi Arabia, so to think that a female will report anything whatsoever regarding her male relatives is just ludicrous, because all that would accomplish is the authorities giving those rmale elatives to beat the hell out of her, perhaps leading up to an unsolved “honor killing”.

Feb 8, 2009 - 10:34 am 35. voyeur:

Rehabilitation: Nazism ended at Nurenburg, not in 1945. Hanging changed their minds for good.

USA: Shocker that CIA report about British Pakis being the main terror threat to the USA. There is a flavour that MI5 are overwhelmed/complacent/lost the plot.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/barackobama/4550144/CIA-warns-Barack-Obama-that-British-terrorists-are-the-biggest-threat-to-the-US.html

Feb 8, 2009 - 10:37 am 36. RWE:

The Left likes to claim that we created all kinds of terrorists by “going all around the world and gathering up people and putting them in Gitmo.”

Okay, so closing Gitmo will surely cause a precipitous drop in the number of terrorists out there. We’ll see.

This is like the annual article the NTY Times runs that says there is an “inexplicable” link between the increasing prison population and decreasing crime rate.

Feb 8, 2009 - 11:25 am 37. Doug:

RWE
Would appreciate acomment on Buddy’s link:

Shameful Stupidity

America’s nuclear weapons infrastructure has suffered decline over many years. Last week I was told by an American expert that Pakistan presently has a greater nuclear weapons manufacturing capacity than the United States.

Feb 8, 2009 - 12:14 pm 38. steveaz:

Buddy’s right on target – it all boils down to e-n-e-r-g-y. That’s why focusing on the movement(s)’ religious trappings, while interesting, so misses the point.

Also, placing the emphasis on the fact that the “Islamist” movement has demonstrated it has real territorial, economic and political plans for its conquered territories that, coincidentally, mirror the centralized, controlled economic plans espoused by Left-wing organizations like the Congressional Black Caucus, and the AFLCIO, is more effective than the “they’re Muslims, ergo…” trap.

Basically, the religionist approach is too easily countered. The Left has already pre-engineered a quaint cover-narrative for terror’s religion-ist critiques: the rails are greased to equate non-violent American sects with Islam whenever terrorists’ shared religious affiliations come under scrutiny. All religions being equal to the Left, the Taliban, and other militant Islamic sects are already posed as stand-ins for America’s many religions (ex. American Methodists are just as bad as Taliban Muslims, because both are religious).

This evocation of religion by terror’s defenders is of course conscious. Having deliberately made “religion” the tar-baby of America’s pluralist politics, progressives hope we’ll take a good swing at it and get ourselves stuck.

Meanwhile the industrialized nations’ quiet, ne’er ending grab for prove-able energy will roll on, and we’ll be, well, stuck.

Feb 8, 2009 - 12:45 pm 39. Mike Sylwester:

NahnCee (@34):
Isn’t the whole problem since 9/12/01 that Muslims do not, ever, rat out other Muslims who are planning bad stuff?

Muslims rat each other out all the time. It sure has been happening a lot during the past few years in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan. US military forces have been able to target some Moslems very precisely because of information we have been receiving from other Moslems.

Feb 8, 2009 - 12:53 pm 40. Eggplant:

Wretchard said:

“George Bush is gone and Hope and Change are in office, but al Qaeda doesn’t seem too worried. So far.”

It’s boring to repeat this but the Islamic fascists and the moonbats have a symbiotic relationship.

The moonbats will never admit that the Islamic fascists are a danger (despite the evidence of 9/11) because deep down inside the moonbats want the Islamic fascists to succeed (the moonbats were programmed to self-destruct). Likewise the Islamic fascists known that they can only succeed if the moonbats are running the western democracies. The rest of us need to realize that the moonbats and the Islamic fascists are our mortal enemies.

Dealing with the Islamic fascists is relatively easy, i.e. we simply kill them whenever we can. However unlike with Islamic fascists, we don’t have the option of violence against the moonbats because they’re our co-workers, next door neighbors and family members. We either have to reason with the moonbats (which is like trying to teach a pig how to sing) or isolate them from the levers of political power.

Unfortunately the political system is cyclical and the moonbats are now in control (9/11 only gave us a finite amount of political capital and that has been spent). All we can do now is hope the system survives until the pendulum swings back our way.

Doug said:

“Last week I was told by an American expert that Pakistan presently has a greater nuclear weapons manufacturing capacity than the United States.”

I read somewhere that a typical nuclear weapon has a 10 year shelf life (they degrade due to the radiation from their plutonium bomb pits). Supposably almost all American nuclear weapons are over 20 years old and therefore past their expiration dates. We still have a program of testing the ballistic missiles and insuring that they still work. However because of the ban against nuclear weapons testing, we have no sure way of knowing that the actual nuclear warheads still work. The national labs do have a program called “stockpile stewardship” that involves testing nuclear weapons readiness through computer modeling and testing components. Of course the $64,000 question is:

Do you believe the computer models?

Feb 8, 2009 - 1:00 pm 41. Doug:

Probly get a virus like the one that almost wiped out the Annie Fannie Records.

Feb 8, 2009 - 1:38 pm 42. elby:

Doesn’t the Russian nuclear arsenal also suffer from the same degeneration and neglect? Have they been able to secretly test new weapons? I heard recently that half of their MiG’s were unflyable. Perhaps someone with better knowledge can fill me in on Russia’s (or China’s for that matter) military strength and preparedness.

All this is not to say that it isn’t short sited to let our preparedness fall. The world is still a very dangerous place. Always has been. Always will be.

Feb 8, 2009 - 2:54 pm 43. Doug:

On their side the Russians are eager to encourage U.S. disarmament. There has even been liberal posturing from Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. A few weeks ago a Russian general, talking on the radio, publicly advised the Kremlin to take a more soothing stance toward the Americans. Half the American nuclear arsenal doesn’t work, he said, and the other half is seriously neglected. The Kremlin only needs a little patience and a little friendliness.

If Russia lays low and avoids stunts like the recent incursion into Georgia, then Russia might enjoy the dominant position. President Obama wants a nuclear arms reduction agreement. All Russia has to do is sign the agreement and ignore its requirements.

This is what the Russians have already done.
In 1997 the famous intelligence expert, Bill Lee, warned that Russia had a hidden stockpile of nuclear weapons that nobody wanted to talk about. As it turns out, arms reduction is too sexy. It is something that flabby and vapid people cannot resist.”

Feb 8, 2009 - 3:43 pm 44. Eggplant:

elby said:

“Doesn’t the Russian nuclear arsenal also suffer from the same degeneration and neglect?”

If anything their situation is worse.

“Have they been able to secretly test new weapons?”

That would be impossible unless they tested the weapon in deep space, e.g. in superior conjunction behind the sun.

“I heard recently that half of their MiG’s were unflyable.”

The Russians have been selling their military hardware on the international arms market so some of their MiGs still fly.

Truth to tell, the Russians aren’t the people that we need to worry about with regard to nukes (the Russian leaders are rational and competent). We need to worry about the Iranians, Pakistanis, Norks, al Qaeda and to a much lesser extent the Chinese. The Chinese are a concern only if their economy fully implodes and radical communists regain control of their political process (not likely).

This new set of bad guys requires a different type of nuclear weapon, e.g. weapons intended for actual use rather than as a bluff based upon Mutual Assured Destruction. The nuclear weapons that we (the US) currently have are not only old but they’re too powerful and overly dirty (too much fallout). We should be replacing these older nuclear weapons with a new variety that are very reliable, have a very long shelf life and are very clean burning (almost no fallout with a relatively low explosive yield). The United States won’t be politically able to make that conversion until after we’ve lost a major US city to nuclear terrorism and Obama has gone away.

Feb 8, 2009 - 5:12 pm 45. buddy larsen:

c’mon youz guys –keep up – please –

Feb 8, 2009 - 5:37 pm 46. Eggplant:

Buddy,

Your link described a new Russian ballistic missile. As far as I could see it was no better than the US Trident D-5 (a highly accurate MIRVed SLBM) which was 1980s technology. The issue is NOT ballistic missile technology but decaying nuclear warhead technology, i.e. stockpile stewardship. Along the lines of Russian ballistic missile technology, I read a couple years ago that the Russians had reinvented the old Advanced Maneuverable Reentry (AMaRV) technology. This was something the US developed and abandoned in 1976 (supposably the Soviets had done the same). The US abandoned AMaRV for many reasons, the main one being its sophistication was irrelevant if the enemy could respond with mutual assured destruction using less sophisticated RVs. Again this obsolete Cold War/MAD technology is not really germane to the issue of dealing with Iranian/Islamic nukes.

Feb 8, 2009 - 7:33 pm 47. ledger:

“The Islamic extremists who run the country of Yemen have released 170 al-Qaida suspects; but don’t worry, they signed disclaimers that they’re not going to be terrorists any more…”

“It’s not a coincidence that this brazen release of nearly 200 terrorists comes less than a month after Barack Obama took office.”

See: Yemen Releases 170 Al Qaeda Terrorists
http://littlegreenfootballs.com/article/32699_Yemen_Releases_170_Al_Qaeda_Terrorists_After_They_Sign_Pledges

Feb 8, 2009 - 7:49 pm 48. Morton Doodslag:

“Terrorists, like investors, base their present investment decisions on what they believe the return on their effort is going to be.”

I think it is extremely misleading to attempt to assess Islamic Jihad through such a rationalistic western mindset. The Islamic Jihad which now threatens the world began to get its legs when oil was discovered under Muslim sands. The process has been slow and has taken nearly a century to bring us to this point, but as soon as funds began to flow back into the moribund coffers of Muslim nations, the JIhad was inevitable. Over Islam’s long and hideous trajectory, Muslims have waged JIhad and successfully parasitized several superior and wealthy cultures — think Christian Spain, think Byzantium, think Persia, think the entirety of th Christian and Jewish Middle East. Islam gobbled up and spit out what it found, and subsisted for a time, but the loot always eventually ran out — and Islam fell again on hard times. Muslims, congenitally incapable of inventing anything novel or of sustaining anything positive, will always fall back into their paralyzed backward ways until new opportunities reinvigorate their heinous system of destruction.

As long as Islam sees green pastures in “infidel” lands, as long as we permit them to wage their war doctrine on our soil unopposed, as long as there’s loot in the pipeline, the will wage Jihad to steal and annihilate on behalf of Islam.

Jihad began slowly after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire in the early 20th century. But then came the oil, the only significant source of all their unearned revenue even to this day. In this regard, it’s critical to remember that most of what we see today in terms of Jihad is the direct fruit of various widespread fascist movements which emerged with oil hovering between $2 and $30 /barrel. The price between 1946 and 2003 ONLY surpassed the $30 mark for a couple years in the early 1980s!

The Muslim world must be strangled of its vast unearned revenue if we ever wish to see an end to their bloody rape of humanity. Further, Muslim immigration into the West must be halted and reversed immediately so that Muslims will not feel quite so triumphant in their plans for world conquest. Limited to their cesspools of origin, and strangled of funds, Islam would pose no threat to the world whatsoever.

Feb 8, 2009 - 9:08 pm 49. buddy larsen:

In the new nuclear reduction talks with Russia, O wants an 80% reduction. If the spies are right and the Rus have a secret stockpile (and really, why wouldn’t they?), an 80% cut is gwan make dem hidden weapons might scary, on roll out during the future Cuban type crisis.

There’s this whole set of Nyquist type thinking that we are really walking down the primrose path with MAD. these guys are the ones who are yet to this day debriefing the KGB & GRU defectors (yes i know it could be self-serv &/or disinfo), and the expats say, the new theories in Kremlin are that a nuke exchange is winnable.

Then along comes O and 80% and suddenly –it’s serious enough to examine, so we can watch the guy in two ways –FDR-ish soft, and the unspeakable but we know we wonder, mole in the oval.

Feb 8, 2009 - 9:24 pm 50. SpeakEasy:

Our host’s article triggered a different alarm in my head apparently. I was seeing a repeat of the fall of the Shah of Iran and the takeover of the religious zealots. I would not like to be working at the US embassy in Saudi Arabia at this time- unless I was part of the Marine Security Forces- they get to shoot back. The big question is when the Shiite hits the fan, will Obama stand up and fight or crawl under his desk in the Oval Office like Carter? Interesting times.

Feb 8, 2009 - 9:42 pm 51. Lifeofthemind:

New Organization, NSC = Politburo or NSC = Committee of Public Safety
Nice to know you have a choice.

Feb 8, 2009 - 10:46 pm 52. Karen:

There once was a Prez named Barack
Whose favorite weapon was talk
His mettle they will test
When Jihadis fight the West
And preemption is labeled a crock

Now the push is on to disarm us
Because who in the world could harm us
With Dear Leader Obama
Not even Osama
Can open our eyes and uncharm us

When prophets warn of perdition
We don’t pay any attention
If we weren’t so sick
We’d not be so quick
To pin all our hope on a magician

Feb 9, 2009 - 2:06 am 53. Doug:

Very nice Karen.
Too bad it’s terrifyingly true.
—
No mention yet in this MAD Meltdown Discussion about another party:
The Chi-Coms.
Wo is us.

Feb 9, 2009 - 4:27 am 54. buddy larsen:

great stuff, Karen –wish the times weren’t such that we can’t be doing odes to springtime and such.

Feb 9, 2009 - 2:56 pm 55. Karen:

Hmmm yeah, the Chi-Coms. I haven’t thought of them much. I picture them just kind of biding their time:

For the Chi-Coms’ desired fate
All they need do is wait
Be the friend of our foe
And next thing you know
They’ll be able to say ‘checkmate’

But I don’t know, maybe they’re doing a lot more than waiting – certainly busy building up their military anyway. But with Obama-Pelosi-Reid, the economy and the Islamists, that’s too much already. I couldn’t even finish reading the post about Baby P though I’ll never be able to get it out of my mind. That little golden-haired boy must MUST be with God now and forever. For those inclined to sneer, go ahead. If not for the faith to hold on to, one would be like Ivan in The Brothers Karamazov. Read chapter 4 in Book V and think about there being no remedy for these innocent ones – not only Baby P but all the others through all the centuries. Ivan couldn’t stand it and you can’t either, no one can. So it’s God or madness or become yourself one of the cruel. Oh there’s one other choice, just forget about it all and look to a Messiah like Obama. That’s what 52% of us have done.

Feb 9, 2009 - 4:49 pm 56. Doug:

“ I couldn’t even finish reading the post about Baby P”
—
I haven’t even started.
Probably won’t.
The Saints that sometimes, somewhere, step in to save the day in those situations have my highest respect.

…not that does much of anything for anyone but me.

Feb 10, 2009 - 6:57 am 57. Karen:

Doug – and everyone – pardon my outburst. I shouldn’t even have mentioned Baby P because that’s not what this thread is about but while writing my little limericks I was also thinking about that other post and it just came out in the wrong place. In this post Wretchard says the sharks (terrorists) think it’s safe to come out of the water. Other types of sharks seem to think it’s safe to be baby torturers. Only when the baby finally dies of his injuries, THEN – when it’s too late – the floodgates open with outpourings of grief. Up until then, the parents were quite safe to inflict their devilish amusements, with the clumsiest camouflage that successfully fooled the social workers and even a doctor. Don’t you think that even the tiniest bit of genuine love would have prompted the inspectors, the doctor, somebody in the system to actually look, really LOOK at the child himself? No, as Wretchard points out, they’re all too busy following form, dotting i’s and crossing t’s. Everything is done correctly.

Right or wrong, I think there’s a part of me that wants to blame an atheist mindset for the failures of governments to protect and defend the populace, including young innocents, whether from terrorists or twisted sadistic parents. The design of social programs is an abstract intellectual exercise almost as bereft of love as the home of Baby P and, accordingly, futile functionaries fail spectacularly.

If social workers were all, to a man, Godly true believers, would bad things never happen? No, but at least they wouldn’t be laboring under the delusion of Process; man’s flimsy and arid formulas wouldn’t be the guiding light. They would be individuals using sensible judgment, a judgment informed by the highest charge: to love one another. A person like that would look. A person like that would notice.

Feb 10, 2009 - 3:22 pm 58. Whitehall:

The Russians were going to sell us surplus plutonium, just like they sold us their enriched uranium. However, I don’t think the physical shipments have started yet. We built a fuel fabrication plant to convert our surplus into commercial reactor fuel (a TVA plant has been testing it.)

The Russians will get about $12 billion when the U-235 transfers are complete.

Feb 10, 2009 - 3:43 pm

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