Commerce may be too busy to take the census, having to leave that onerous task to Rahm Emmanuel. But it’s not too busy to waive sanctions on a previously rejected request to have Boeing service the Syrian national airline. The business will be welcome at Boeing, but the focus must surely be on what the US will do for an encore? Forbes reports on the 747 servicing deal.
News emerged this week that the U.S. Department of Commerce has just approved a license allowing Boeing (nyse: BA – news – people ) to go ahead with major overhauls of two 747 jetliners belonging to Syria’s state-owned Syrian Arab Airlines. The administration itself has been coy on the subject. In response to my query, a Commerce spokesman e-mailed a statement that such license requests are granted on a case-by-case basis, and Commerce cannot comment on specific instances. More eagerly, Syria’s state news agency hustled out an announcement on Tuesday, Feb. 10, saying that the “U.S. Trade Department agrees to provide spare parts for rehabilitating Syrian Airlines.”
The lifting of sanctions doesn’t make much sense unless there is a diplomatic ‘iniative’ in the works. It’s a prelude to something, but the question is what. This month marks the anniversary of Rafik Hariri’s death and the return of Netanyahu to power in Israel. It also marks a period of a new Taliban upsurge in a country whose only alternative commercial link to the sea is via Teheran. On a whole slew of fronts there are possibilities — and the possibility for sellouts — galore in any equation that involves Syria and by extension, Iran and Israel. The only question is, in what chain of links does the Boeing deal fit?
February 2009 is the month in which the UN special prosecutor may choose or not choose to name Syria in the death of Rafik Hariri. Joshua Hammer in the Atlantic notes how three prosecutors and a variety of shifting alliances have been maneuver to decide what happened four years ago.
The investigation into the 2005 assassination of the Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq al-Hariri is nearing its end—and a trial in international court looms. Insiders say the trail of evidence leads, ultimately, to the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. But having spent three years fearing for their lives, the investigators are now grappling with a different fear: that Western concerns about regional stability will prevent the naming of the biggest names.
Whatever happened four years ago hasn’t been decided quite yet. The operative questions will probably center around whether there is any usefulness to justice being served. The parties involved are not to be trifled with. The Obama administration has quietly decided that the last NIE finding that Iran has stopped nuclear weapons development was wrong. The Ayatollah’s want the bomb after all. Tigerhawk notices this LA Times report:
Little more than a year after U.S. spy agencies concluded that Iran had halted work on a nuclear weapon, the Obama administration has made it clear that it believes there is no question that Tehran is seeking the bomb.
In his news conference this week, President Obama went so far as to describe Iran’s “development of a nuclear weapon” before correcting himself to refer to its “pursuit” of weapons capability.
Obama’s nominee to serve as CIA director, Leon E. Panetta, left little doubt about his view last week when he testified on Capitol Hill. “From all the information I’ve seen,” Panetta said, “I think there is no question that they are seeking that capability.”
What a difference a day makes, as the song goes. Twenty four little hours. So, what’s going to happen? Open thread.
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16 Comments
1. Willie G:Just keep telling yourself that the adults are now in charge and keep believing in “hope and change”. “Nothing to see here, folks. Just move along….”
Now, where’s that bottle of whiskey….?
Feb 13, 2009 - 9:14 am 2. Pseudo-Polymath » Blog Archive » Friday Highlights:[...] new openness in the Administration, “cannot comment on specific instances” … or not. More on the census as [...]
Feb 13, 2009 - 9:15 am 3. Stones Cry Out - If they keep silent… » Things Heard: e54v5:[...] new openness in the Administration, “cannot comment on specific instances” … or not. More on the census as [...]
Feb 13, 2009 - 9:16 am 4. Peter Boston:Dear Leader is not willing to concede any power to domestic political parties. It seems unlikely that he would see an advantage (to himself) of conceding international political power to weaklings. I do not impute any good or noble intentions to Dear Leader but it’s too early to tell how he sees a benefit from Syria.
Since Whiskey’s feminization screeds have drawn such interest you may want to bookmark this PJM article. How Obama Stimulates Feminists for future reference.
Feb 13, 2009 - 9:21 am 5. Cannoneer No. 4:a new Taliban upsurge in a country whose only alternative commercial link to the sea is via Teheran.
Via Chahbahar, actually, 903 miles as the crow flies from Tehran. The Indians recently completed a road from Delaram, Nimroz Province, Afghanistan, to Zaranj, Iran, which already had a road to Chabahar. Trucks can now carry shipping containers from Chabahar to Delaram on the Ring Road, across Helmand and Kandahar on up to Kabul.
A good Main Supply Route for an Indian Expeditionary Force.
A trap for us.
Feb 13, 2009 - 9:27 am 6. steveaz:RE Boeing’s link – This thaw could boost Boeing’s fortunes in Arabia.
But, is it payback?
BA did relocate its HQ to Chicago (they could have moved to Houston), and with it BA brought much needed, cosmopolitan allure, employment opportunities and tax revenues to a lagging city. And, (I wasn’t there but) they did finally settle with their striking machinists union. I’m not sure of the details of the final contract, but it cannot be said that BA would not “work” with her unions.
Feb 13, 2009 - 10:35 am 7. Lifeofthemind:@Cannooneer No.4,
Feb 13, 2009 - 11:10 am 8. Kirk Parker:Interesting, wheels within wheels.
Do you envision an Indian-Iranian alliance against the Pakistanis and Taliban? That would be a strategic pairing as cynical as that of Louis XIV and the German Protestants against the Hapsburgs. That would be predicated I think on either a change in regime in Tehran or a split between India and Israel. If the Mullahs feel threatened and see the Israelis benefiting as allies of India then they may launch an attack preemptively. If the Indians, who are torn on this issue as was shown during Gaza, break with Israel then Israel could ally with China and Pakistan against Iran. The US would be the big loser either way. Playing this out needs more work. hmmmmm
“The lifting of sanctions doesn’t make much sense unless there is a diplomatic ‘iniative’ in the works”
I suppose it’s too much to hope that Boeing is secretly installing some high-tech bugs and other such stuff at the same time.
Feb 13, 2009 - 2:55 pm 9. Cannoneer No. 4:ANALYSIS NEW CHAH BAHAR DILARAM ROUTE
The Indians and Iranians work together against the Chinese and the Pakistanis, Life.
The Iranians are not real happy with the Pakistanis. Too many Baluchis coming across to cause trouble in Iranian-controlled Baluchistan. The Iranians hate the Taliban, but Quds Force works with al Qaeda.
Pashtuns are Afghans, but Tajik Afghanistanis are Persians. In 2005 I was told by a guy who had recently been to Herat that Iranian currency was what people used for money in Regional Command West.
Feb 13, 2009 - 3:28 pm 10. blert:Cannoneer…
Linking to a Commie ?
He’s no Wretchard.
Feb 13, 2009 - 5:53 pm 11. Cannoneer No. 4:Nobody else is, blert. I’ve linked to the New York Times and the Washington Post before, so I’m not too picky.
Feb 13, 2009 - 11:07 pm 12. buddy larsen:Iranians and Indians are the same race –both were zoroastrian in the way way back when. both main languages are indo-european, as are the Baluchis. the ‘nation’ maplines are as screwed up along there as they could possibly be.
Feb 13, 2009 - 11:20 pm 13. njcommuter:It’s pretty clear that the Dems are learning from the PRI down in Mexico.
Feb 14, 2009 - 10:23 am 14. Doug:njcommuter,
More than once I have remarked to my wife that the very things we used to tsk tsk about, re:
Corruption in Mexico (while silently congratulating ourselves for our good sense in choosing to be born where laws are given more respect) have now become commonplace here, even as Mexico has moved on to more exciting activities like The Drug Wars.
—
Deadly Blunder –
This all too familiar and prolonged difference in the standards held by expert crash investigators and the FAA regulators has a deadly cost.
Behind the Buffalo Crash –
Feb 14, 2009 - 9:14 pm 15. Pat Patterson:Will there be some many US supplied listening devices planted on the refurbished Boeings that the passengers will glow in the dark for months?
Feb 15, 2009 - 3:31 am 16. Wadeusaf:Driving a wedge between Syria and Iran is tricky business, given the history with Iraq, (i.e. the WMD etc roads leading to the bombed out shell of a suspected nuclear reactor) The history with Jordan, the history with Hizbulla, the history with the PLO, the history with Turkey, the history with the KSA, the history with Hammas, the history with Israel, the history with Al Queda and most importantly the history with Lebanon.
But of all the lessons of history that can be drawn one stands out. Syrian hegemony in the ME is undeniable. Syrian finger prints are on everything. Their largest supporters erm, suppliers have been and remain Russia and the Islamic Revolutionary Repulic of Iran. Baby Assad may be poised to dodge a western bullet of his own making, in allowing a regional slowing of the violence in exchange for limited immunity for his obvious interference in Lebanon through criminal means, or what ever language they eventually use to excuse erm, describe his role in the murder of Hariri.
I hope the Obama team takes into account the varied and many alliances into which Assad has sunk hooks. Which have served him well and which have not served as expected. It will be worth the effort to watch, and will signal how well thought out this Obama team’s initiative is, and how much is owed to the ground work done by President Bush’s administration.
Feb 21, 2009 - 6:09 amSorry, comments for this entry are closed at this time.