72 Comments

1. Demosophist:

I’ve been watching episodes of The Beast because I thought the overall plotline involving a rogue FBI officer was interesting, but the most recent episode involved a situation where a scientist was being threatened by hawkish conservatives in the US because she could “prove” that her country was a long way from developing a bomb. Not sure which country she was supposed to represent, because I sort of lost interest due to the tiresome premise, and stopped watching, but if she was supposed to be North Korean then the show’s writers are a little behind the curve. She looked Asian, but perhaps they were representing her as an Iranian?

Decades ago I was part of a Nuclear Freeze Movement whose basic assumption was that if we were nice, and unilaterally gave up our nukes, then those misunderstood people in the Kremlin would be so relieved they’d give us a big smooch. I supported the movement, although I never quite understood the logic… a choice of hope over substance, I’m afraid. But the fact was that due to an innovative electronic surveillance of the Kremlin (whose cover was eventually blown by the New York Times) our side always knew exactly what the Soviets were planning, so there wasn’t ever any guesswork or uncertainty. And knowledge (which the current left would no doubt consider an unfair advantage) ultimately provided us enough leverage to walk the threat down during the Reagan administration. Clearly we lack such intel in the current situation. But no worries, Hollywood can fill nurse our uncertainties with pure fiction.

Feb 13, 2009 - 9:54 am 2. Demosophist:

Actually, I’m not sure “fill-nurse” is a real verb. Intended to delete “fill” but you know what I mean…

Feb 13, 2009 - 9:58 am 3. Peter Boston:

Bruce Bueno de Mesquitas’s book “The Logic of Political Survival” is the most persuasive and logical explanation I have seen for explaining how politics works. If you Google the tile with the quotes in place you’ll find hundreds of references.

Barck Obama is the perfect subject for de Mesquita’s theory because Obama is a pure political animal. There is almost nothing the man has ever done that was not designed to first advance his personal career, regardless of the bad effect on others.

How does publicly stating that Iran is building a nuke satisfy a key Obama constituency? Figure that out and you have a good handle on Dear Leader’s foreign policy direction.

Feb 13, 2009 - 10:01 am 4. Eggplant:

Wretchard said:

“Procedurally, this episode is going to reinforce the view of conservatives that after Iraq, at least, the intelligence agencies undermined the Bush administration at each opportunity. If there was “politicization” of intelligence during the Bush years, it cut against Bush policies more than it facilitated them.”

It was obvious that there were people in the Intelligence Community doing everything they could to undermine the Bush administration (the systematic leaks to the MSM was clear evidence of this). That ealier NIE with the obviously false report about the Iranian nuclear weapons program was clearly intended to prevent Bush (and Israel) from launching preemptive raids against Iran. The moonbats within the intelligence community who successfully orchestrated this are no doubt patting each other on the back for a mission accomplished, e.g. Obama is president and the Iranian nuclear weapon’s program is intact.

If McCain had been elected President, one could argue that the Intelligence Community should receive a full house cleaning, e.g. rebuild the whole rotten institution from scratch. However that would be the last thing that Obama would want to do (those guys are supposably on his side). Of course they’re not really on anyone’s side. They’re doing whatever the voices in their heads are telling them to do (Gramscian windup robots). They’re probably feeding Obama whatever information they think Obama will accept that will further their agenda.

We’re sitting ducks! When the Iranians make their move, we’ll be completely blind sided.

Feb 13, 2009 - 10:03 am 5. Armeggedon Rex:

I find it heartening that some of our intelligence organs, with the ear of the press, now conveniently decide the Iranians are trying to develop the bomb and are thus a genocidal threat to the only established democracy in the Middle East and the rest of the region. How convenient, that they waited until an administration was in place which is nearly guaranteed to take no decisive action.
The Israelis lack the capability to successfully destroy the Iranian nuclear program without resorting to the use of their own tactical nukes. They don’t have the numbers of long-range aircraft or refueling access necessary to get a sufficient load of precision munitions into the positions to strike decisively without using nukes. A successful test of a nuclear device cannot be hidden. Once the Iranians test their nuke, the Israelis will be forced to move. I think we can all agree that the Israelis will not use nukes first. They will strike with conventional munitions anyway. What Israeli prime minister could stand by and not do so? The strike will mobilize the population of Iran to rally round their government. It will unite the Islamic world in condemnation of Israel. The strike will damage the Iranian nuke program, but not destroy it. The Iranians will further spread out, harden and conceal their nuke program, making any future strike nearly impossible with the new Russian SAM systems that have been sold to Iran. The strike will buy a year or three, but will also trigger an arms race with Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and perhaps others jumping into the nuclear arena in a big way.
Since Israel is a relatively free country, accessible by commercial aircraft and high-speed boat on the Mediterranean coast where most of their population lives and works, their days are numbered. With the proliferation of nukes in the Middle East, even if Iran miraculously stays its hand, there will be a devastating nuclear attack on Israel within a decade or two. The sad part then is that with the intelligence and security organs of every major Middle East Muslim nation already at least partially compromised by Islamic extremists, the surviving Israelis won’t know if the nuclear attack was sanctioned by the government that built that particular bomb or not. Retaliation will be nearly impossible. Once the terrorists see that they can pull off a nuclear strike on “The little Shaitan” with impunity, it won’t be long before attack(s) on “The great Shaitan” follow! The time for pulling our heads out of the sand was back when Mohammad Pahlavi was deposed. The Islamist djinn is out of the bottle again after being stoppered for centuries, and has been rampaging across the earth for nearly three decades. Must another destructive djinn be set free to scourge the world before we wake up and do what must be done?

Feb 13, 2009 - 10:07 am 6. Vodkapundit » Trying Something New:

[...] mullahs making massive missiles? You don’t say. Richard Fernandez concludes: Procedurally, this episode is going to reinforce the view of conservatives that after [...]

Feb 13, 2009 - 10:25 am 7. dan:

Just more reason to believe our intelligence organs are as corrupted and co-opted and misdirected and venal as Angleton was afraid they were. I guess we mere civilians will have to wait and see if something or nothing happens. Of course it could always be a gigantic something portrayed – or not-portrayed – as a nothing. Amazing what distortions the media engages in, one way or the other. For example, if I have to hear about this octuplets woman again I think I may go have to bash a kitten’s brains out. We could really use a media-targetted Katrina in this country. These people are ruining Everything.

Feb 13, 2009 - 10:48 am 8. Gordon:

Tigerhawk–kindly give a definition or example of a ‘… hardball, but nuanced, strategy… ‘ This “nuance” word zips around a lot and I’m not sure what it means. Thanks.

Feb 13, 2009 - 11:01 am 9. slimslowslider:

NIE report = Munich Agreement/non-agression pact

Feb 13, 2009 - 11:01 am 10. K:

I agree with Dan.

What can the public believe when our intelligence agencies produce contradictions and then media further distort what is announced.

And I agree with much of what Rex says about how Israel can be successfully attacked when nukes are secured by terrorists. And why Israeli nuclear power is not very useful. (Israel is not alone in being vulnerable, but they are probably highest on the target list).

I differ with Rex about being heartened. He is glad our intelligence now has it right. I am sad because they so often seem to say what is good for themselves.

IMO Rex touches on the real issue. Can secular Islamic governments withstand extremists anywhere?

Feb 13, 2009 - 11:09 am 11. Harold:

The NIE was widely misquoted in the media. The NIE stated that the US intelligence community had a high degree of confidence that the warhead design & development phase was “suspended” from 2003 to 2006. The other parts of the program continued ahead: uranium enrichment & missile development. The degree of confidence in those assessments was “absolute certainty”. Furthermore, the NIE said they had only moderate confidence that the partial suspension continued after 2006.

The NIE never claimed the Iranians stopped their nuclear weapons program, only that they temporarily suspended work on one part of it.

Feb 13, 2009 - 11:16 am 12. Lifeofthemind:

To much energy has been wasted on speculation as to how sympathetic Obama is with Islam. Doing so accepts the fiction that Islam really is a unified all embracing construct. What does seem clear is that BHO has enormous sympathy for Sunni Islam as an ideal and has indicted far less sympathy for Pakistan and Iran as real places. Possible alliance combinations were being considered on the last thread. If BHO is preparing to increase pressure on Pakistan and Iran, while extending olive branches to Syria, the Palestinians and the Saudi Al Qaeda opposition, then Israel will be in an interesting spot.

Feb 13, 2009 - 11:22 am 13. dan:

Harold – absolutely. However, the NIE summary was clearly written to achieve a certain political outcome. Considering its subject, it should have been written with a reverse emphasis: we do not know that this psychotic government has frozen its nuclear programs, so we are concerned.

Also, I give you our new administration’s most recent strategic blunder concerning the Power without whom Iran would not have a nuclear program and we would not need to be discussing this:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090213/wl_nm/us_usa_shield_russia

Feb 13, 2009 - 11:45 am 14. Lifeofthemind:

@dan,
Thanks for that little ray of sunshine. The NYC Bd of Ed can start planning for several thousand children of native Ukrainian speakers who will be looking for a new home soon. Our bibulous friend from last Summer had better stock up on Georgian wine while he still can. The re-collectivization of Eastern Europe will probably be matched by the accompanying organization of the West by wise leaders with a veneer of Green to their plans.

Feb 13, 2009 - 12:00 pm 15. steeple:

Those Iranians must be pretty clever, because it was clear to all on the Left that they couldn’t have been working on this through Jan 20th. After all, they said so. Iran must have really dialed it up since then!

But wait, I thought that we were going to talk to each other respectfully? I’m so confused!

Feb 13, 2009 - 12:45 pm 16. dan:

http://www.heritage.org/Press/Events/ev020409a.cfm

Feb 13, 2009 - 2:22 pm 17. Professor Guvinoff:

Let’s not forget the huge shift presently gathering momemtum in Iran’s back yard (or front yard?, or sideyard?):

The Iraqi electorate has unmistakably shown its preference for the secular parties over their religious counterparts. Maliki was very smart to de-emphasize his original religious backing by re-naming his party, and was hugely rewarded for it.

Al-Sistani also wisely stayed quiet. This is a huge setback for the Mullahs of Iran. All their efforts to preempt the emergence of any liberal trend in Iraq have failed.

We have paid heavily for it, but we will eventually harvest the fruits of this heroic effort if we don’t stupidly give it up just when it is starting to pay off.

This shift is more important than whatever one can infer from the latest intelligence “reports”, regardless of wishful content, calculated leaks or whatever else propels these strangely open “disclosures” into the oh-so-informative airwaves.

One can trust the string pullers in Iran to continue pulling as hard as they can for the acquisition of nuclear weapons and their delivery systems, but every year they continue to be left with fewer strings to pull.

We also need to realize that the label “Iranian moderates” has been thrown around mindlessly for years already, without any relevance.

The real moderates in Iran are those who have been suppressed, by internment, or worse. Whomever still enjoys the freedom to brag about any moderation in Iran is pushing snake oil. What is all this lubrication good for?

The mullahs have not been overcome yet, and we should not waste any opportunity to interfere with their plans. If this could be accomplished by talking, it would have already been done, by the Europeans, many years ago.

Let’s stay focussed, support the Iranian dissidents, support Israel, and disseminate the facts about Iran.

Feb 13, 2009 - 2:32 pm 18. blert:

The mullahs win with the wallet…

That’s where they can be tripped up.

Economic warfare must be taken to the next level.

Force them to spend, spend, spend…

Cut low their incomes.

Feb 13, 2009 - 2:39 pm 19. buckets:

One of the most despicable parts of Obama on the campaign trail was listening to his complete bullshit about Bush/Republican warmongering – Anyone remember:

“Iran is a small country, there is absolutely no reason to be afraid of it, etc.” accompanied by audience laughter. The gist being that all these external brown-skinned enemies were nothing more than fevered paranoia of conservatives.

Honestly, it makes me a bit ill. While I certainly never trusted him, O is currently astounding me in his attempts to talk out of both sides of his mouth.

Feb 13, 2009 - 3:25 pm 20. wildernesscalling:

the right needs to demand proof from the “0″ crew, how can one year with even less HI involved make such a change, last thing the right needs to do is give the “0″ an easy time over something they lied and deceive the rest of the US over, make them eat crow and make it a big shovel to eat with!

Feb 13, 2009 - 3:56 pm 21. Doug:

desert rat said…
Here is the reasoning that westhawk applies, to that NIE from 2007.

“That NIE was the work of mid-level bureaucrats in the intelligence community, led by the infamous Thomas Fingar, then the Deputy Director of National Intelligence for Analysis, who, in his fevered imagination, believed the Bush administration was poised to preemptively strike Iran. With the Iran NIE, Mr. Fingar’s cabal could take credit for thwarting the non-existent Bush plot against Iran. What Mr. Fingar also achieved was the collapse of international pressure against Iran. Now, according to the LA Times story, one think-tank believes Iran will have a nuclear “breakout capability” during the first half of this year.

By rejecting Mr. Fingar’s NIE, the Obama administration has committed itself to confronting Iran at some point.

At least the Obama team will be in a better position to do so than was the Bush administration; in December, Mr. Fingar was finally removed from his position.

Maybe this means that President Obama will achieve more discipline over his intelligence staff than President Bush was able to.“

Feb 13, 2009 - 4:04 pm 22. whiskey:

LifeoftheMind — it is a matter of record that Barack Hussein Obama spent a summer while at Columbia in Pakistan.

He says he was traveling around there to meet people, and to say hello to the relatives of his Pakistani Roomate in New York City at the time.

It seems that Obama does indeed have a lot of sympathy for Pakistan. The Pakistani papers were full of quotes from people who had met him during that summer and were favorably impressed with his views of Pakistan, it’s grievances against India, Jews, the West, and so on.

Perhaps that was just wishful thinking. But Obama’s visit to Pakistan is a matter of fact.

Pretending it never happened is hardly useful.

Feb 13, 2009 - 4:41 pm 23. whiskey:

Let me add by the way, that during this time Obama was a basically broke College student. He had no money, other than what his Grandparents sent. He himself describes lots of scrimping on expenses (Dreams From My Father: A Story of Race and Inheritance.)

How Obama afforded the plane ticket to Pakistan, and expenses there, is a subject no one has ever been able to shed light on.

However, he did go there, and travel throughout the country. So someone paid his expenses. Make of that what you will.

Feb 13, 2009 - 4:44 pm 24. Bob Smith:

Doing so accepts the fiction that Islam really is a unified all embracing construct

With respect to the infidel, in what way is that not true? Do not think that because Islam is not united within itself that it isn’t united against infidels.

Feb 13, 2009 - 5:10 pm 25. Doug:

“Bob”
Good to be in one happy, universally targeted family, huh?
PBU Us!

…also, good to see you back!

Feb 13, 2009 - 5:14 pm 26. Doug:

Whiskey,
The entirety of the Colombia Years is a Black Hole w/respect to The Messiah’s Life.

Feb 13, 2009 - 5:17 pm 27. blert:

Doug…

BHO’s Boogie Pimps video would give you some insight as to his salad days…

Since BHO became President the link has frozen up…

The link is still in the top ten Google search list. Just Google Boogie Pimps Video, and there he be.

Feb 13, 2009 - 5:52 pm 28. RWE:

“I find it heartening that some of our intelligence organs, with the ear of the press, now conveniently decide the Iranians are trying to develop the bomb…”

And where does it say that? Rather, it appears that the Obama Admin has decided that “some of our intelligence organs” are full of it. Possibly this recognition was fostered by the closer contact with those organs that resulted from winning the election. Perhaps one of the previously valued Obama-friendly analysts came to a briefing wearing a Napoleon costume.

Or perhaps the Obama Admin, having found the pronoucements of said analysts very useful during the campaign, has come to the realization that scrambling the Hawaii fighter force on the morning of 7 Dec 1941 in reponse to a curious radar report would have at worst burned up some avgas and at best averted a debacle. It is fine to critcize from the sidelines with imputiny, but when you are holding the bag, it is better to be safe.

Feb 13, 2009 - 5:57 pm 29. Eggplant:

Doug quoted:

“That NIE was the work of mid-level bureaucrats in the intelligence community, led by the infamous Thomas Fingar, then the Deputy Director of National Intelligence for Analysis, who, in his fevered imagination, believed the Bush administration was poised to preemptively strike Iran. … By rejecting Mr. Fingar’s NIE, the Obama administration has committed itself to confronting Iran at some point.”

Interesting bit of trivia: I looked up the Wikipedia article on Fingar. On January 2009, he left his position as director of the National Intelligence Council and resumed working as a professor at Stanford University. Either someone in Obama’s staff didn’t like the idea of having Prof. Fingar operating in the background (shows good sense) or else Prof. Fingar got tired of political intrigue.

Feb 13, 2009 - 6:02 pm 30. Lifeofthemind:

@Eggplant,
Door #3, having destroyed the Bush administration his job was done.

@RWE,
Under Bush/Blair politicians and the press were driven to destroy whole forests in pursuit of the story that the sacred virgin of Intelligence was being polluted to meet crude policy goals. Now it is taken as a given that of course the product will be tailored to support the goals that someone in the White House has signaled a willingness to pursue.

@whiskey,
We all know that BHO went to Pakistan, this is me you’re talking to and you know that. That doesn’t mean that he hasn’t expressed a remarkable willingness to confront at least some elements there. Perhaps he is taking sides in a Civil War based upon a special insight that he flatters himself as having.

I am not at all satisfied with the answers advanced about our logistical and strategic isolation and I am not at all satisfied regarding the intentions of China in all this. Wonder what the Dalai Lama thinks about that? He probably has the best Intelligence available of anyone in the region.

Feb 13, 2009 - 6:34 pm 31. Leo Linbeck III:

With apologies to William Carlos Williams:

——

The Agent Troublemaker

so much depends
upon

the agent trouble
maker

glazed with rain
coats

beside the news
chickens

——

L3

Feb 13, 2009 - 11:06 pm 32. JFSanders:

News chickens!!! apropos mon ami.

Do we all agree that the actions of our gov’t are actionable?

If so, Who among us is willing to risk their fortunes and more to right the ship of state?

Or do we watch as the ship slowly sinks and then try to form a new ship from the flotsam and jetsam?

I say we start the seed of a new country and put some subtle changes in the new constitution to negate the formation of the parasitical politic. Make it so it is frustratingly hard for the moonbats to get a foothold.

Jim

Feb 14, 2009 - 5:48 am 33. Jay:

Once again I ask you all why did O go to Pakistan as a student? All the American students that I know that go to the Muslim Middle East to to Egypt and in the old days Lebanon.
I was on a Ph.D. commiitee of a Bengladeshi who did his field work in the Pakistan Punjab. That was the only part of the country he felt safe in even though he speaks the various languages of the tribes there and his father is a famous Islamic scholar in BD.
So Obama’s treck to Pakland is very strange.

Feb 14, 2009 - 6:21 am 34. dan:

Oh right – Fingar. I forgot he was the author. He’s as bad as John Prendergast (sp?) and that other guy…. whose name escapes me…. begins with S

Feb 14, 2009 - 6:30 am 35. Mike Sylwester:

Jay (@33):
Once again I ask you all why did O go to Pakistan as a student?

Barack Obama’s mother was living and working in Indonesia, and his college roommates were Pakistanis. He visited his mother in Indonesia, visited his roommates’ families in Pakistan, and then continued to New York, where he was to begin attending Columbia University.

My question is why he didn’t visit Kenya, where his supposed father’s family lived. Apparently, by that time he knew that Barack Obama Sr. was not his real father.

Feb 14, 2009 - 6:49 am 36. JFSanders:

@Jay,

I agree that the pathology of “the One” is odd and interesting. But, I would say that the systemic reaction is a more pressing problem. It seems the white blood cells have gone on holiday…

Jim

Feb 14, 2009 - 7:14 am 37. joe buzz:

Anybody got any fresh batteries for the presidential flashlight?:

http://www.barackobama.com/issues/ethics/

Shine the Light on Federal Contracts, Tax Breaks and Earmarks

* Create a Public “Contracts and Influence” Database: As president, Obama will create a “contracts and influence” database that will disclose how much federal contractors spend on lobbying, and what contracts they are getting and how well they complete them.
* Expose Special Interest Tax Breaks to Public Scrutiny: Barack Obama and Joe Biden will ensure that any tax breaks for corporate recipients — or tax earmarks — are also publicly available on the Internet in an easily searchable format.
* End Abuse of No-Bid Contracts: Barack Obama and Joe Biden will end abuse of no-bid contracts by requiring that nearly all contract orders over $25,000 be competitively awarded.
* Sunlight Before Signing: Too often bills are rushed through Congress and to the president before the public has the opportunity to review them. As president, Obama will not sign any non-emergency bill without giving the American public an opportunity to review and comment on the White House website for five days.
* Shine Light on Earmarks and Pork Barrel Spending: Obama’s Transparency and Integrity in Earmarks Act will shed light on all earmarks by disclosing the name of the legislator who asked for each earmark, along with a written justification, 72 hours before they can be approved by the full Senate.

Feb 14, 2009 - 7:14 am 38. JFSanders:

“The politics of meaning” at work…

Jim

Feb 14, 2009 - 7:25 am 39. Jay:

Mike, Thank you for the information. I forgot this he has a Paki roomate.
I have done a LOT of international travel since I was 22. But I only go for work or to visit friends but in safe places. Since I have child abandonment syndrome I can not bring myself to tour on my own even now when I have money to do so. My wife does not like to travel so I can go with her, which would overcome the hidden fears of being alone.
I was abandoned as an infant because I was sick and could not be taken home by my parents. Once I came home I was in a loving family.
Obama has a different variation of the syndrome. What I am writing about is no psycho babble. I have read a lot about the syndrome since I learned about it around ten years ago.
Obama can have a furious blow up any time. LBJ staged blowups in private to intimidate his troops and some reporters. It was an act. Not with this guy.

Feb 14, 2009 - 7:32 am 40. steveaz:

All,
As a useful thought experiment, imagine that the intelligence bureaus are simply the executive branch’s tools, and that the new executive will employ them in the furtherance of his political agenda in Washington.

In this light, the NIE’s recent report resembles a hot butter-knife, and DC’s political discourse and its adjunct media-narratives represent a soft brick of butter. This report is only Obama putting the knife to carving the butter.

Two guesses as to what it is carving:
1. A psy-ops head-fake for “Iranhawks” (who are mostly out-of-power R’s), designed to lull them into a false sense of confidence while Hillary, Assad, Pelosi and Ahmadinejad(sp?) write their own check under cover (kinda like the Spendulus Bill was drafted).

2. A false cover intended to burnish Obama’s militant creds with Israel’s new leadership. The report’s timing is suggestive: Netanyahu’s ascent to leadership in Israel has to be driving Obama’s thinking, just as it is driving Hezbullah’s right now.

Netanyahu can be expected to hold Obama’s feet to the fire, no matter what he does. Leon Panetta’s agency knows that, and they figure Obama’s better off dressing in military drag at the outset…

…he can always don his embroidered Banana Republic terry-cloth robe after hours.

Feb 14, 2009 - 9:13 am 41. Charles:

imho the intelligence community is most loyal to money.
So this is an interesting headline to me.

Global Economy Top Threat to U.S., Spy Chief Says

Feb 14, 2009 - 9:18 am 42. steveaz:

Whiskey,
One’s overseas itinerary is a poor indicator of a person’s daily motivations or religious affiliations. For example, my mom’s been to Damascus’ bazaars, but that doesn’t make her a Baathist.

Just sayin’s all.

It’d be better to get more details about the people who actually shepherded Obama to Pakistan. Those inter-personal connections (with ties, perhaps, to Columbia University herself) may tell us more about America’s insurgency problem than Obama’s choice of travel destination does.

Who filed for his passport? Who applied for his Visa? Who financed the trip? Answers to these’d provide some tangible grapple-holds for us to hang from while we spelunk this guy’s past.

[OT, but didn't Al Gore, environmental insurgent, warm-up his Global Warming act at Columbia?]

Feb 14, 2009 - 9:35 am 43. njcommuter:

It could also be Obama deciding to get the American people ready for the coming reality; if it’s not a surprise, the frog doesn’t jump out of the boiling water.

I hope not …

Feb 14, 2009 - 10:21 am 44. blert:

@ Jay…

BHO is a certified Gonnabee and raging tantrums are just part of the profile.

John DeLorean is a perfect example of a high powered Gonnabee. His rants were the stuff of legend.

Imagine a new-wave thinker with a profound leftist outlook, known to use the pharma, prone to raging outbursts that go on and on ( ie 30 minutes to an hour of un-hinged blather ): who does that remind you of?

We have now got our own new-wave tyrant.

Feb 14, 2009 - 10:51 am 45. Aristide:

Obama made two trips to Pakistan. The first was the summer before he went to Columbia. His host was the father of Pakistan’s recent caretaker Prime Minister, Soomro.

Obama’s second trip was supposedly to visit his mother and, as best I can figure, took place after he graduated from Harvard and went to work in Chicago.

More,
more and more.

Feb 14, 2009 - 11:15 am 46. TigerHawk:

Somebody asked what I meant by “nuanced”. Good question. I confess to skating by on that one.

I would say that a “hardball but nuanced” strategy would put maximum pressure on the Iranian regime, while at the same time avoiding a nationalist reaction within Iran that would bolster the popularity of the regime. The elements of that strategy might include direct appeals to the Iranian people, simultaneous translations of Barack Obama’s relevant speeches into Farsi (even when President Bush addressed himself directly to Iranian and Arab peoples, we did not do this), and even covert operations designed to hurt the Revolutinary Guards and other regime institutions without leaving visible “fingerprints” that would stimulate the nationalist response. I’m sure there are readers of this blog who have more creative ideas than these.

Feb 14, 2009 - 11:34 am 47. Aristide:

Mike @35

My question is why he didn’t visit Kenya, where his supposed father’s family lived. Apparently, by that time he knew that Barack Obama Sr. was not his real father.

Barack visited Kenya in 1971.

Feb 14, 2009 - 11:57 am 48. Aristide:

Make that 1987!!!!

Feb 14, 2009 - 11:58 am 49. Walt:

OT, but today is St. Valentine’s Day, and daughters are special. Having a daughter makes a man feel he’s accomplished something. I wrote this for my daughter a few years ago, and I offer it now to all Belmont Clubbers fortunate enough to be fathers of daughters.

TO MY DAUGHTER, ON SAINT VALENTINE’S DAY

The dawning paints the night sky pink
With rose and amber hue
To look at it I have to think
The morning loves you too.
The rising sun climbs in the sky
Too bright for us to view
Another reason I know why
The noontime loves you too.
As sunset draws the curtain low
And sky turns dusk from blue
I ken full well that this I know
The evening loves you too.

And as I trundle off to bed
I think always of you
And count the thousand times I’ve said
Your father loves you too.

Happy St. Valenmtine’s Day
Walt Erickson

Feb 14, 2009 - 12:14 pm 50. Quig:

Walt,
Thank you sir! You are a gentleman, a scholar and a judge of fine whiskey & women.

Feb 14, 2009 - 12:38 pm 51. Unsk:

Gateway Pundit has a story that Ehud Barak, israeli Defense Minister, has said our Deceiver in Chief Barack will drop sanctions on Iran.

That makes perfect sense of course in leftist logic after Our Deceiver in Chief said Iran is making the bomb?

Just another nail in the coffin.

Feb 14, 2009 - 12:39 pm 52. blert:

Well, that’s in keeping with taking Syria of the hot seat.

I guess Syria is every Democrat’s tourist destination….

Feb 14, 2009 - 12:54 pm 53. Subotai Bahadur:

#42 Steveaz

Good points. However, may I suggest that the most fruitful [and at the moment totally blocked off by Hussein Pasha and his willing accomplices] avenues of inquiry would be:

1) Who paid for his trips overseas? Even in those halcyon days, such wasn’t cheap. Hussein Pasha does not strike me as either tramp steamer steerage material, or one who stays in hostels and mingles with the natives on their terms. He was a relatively poor student supported by his grandparents. Golden Rule: He who has the money, makes the rules.

2) This is one that is definitely classified. What passport was he using to get into Pakistan? At the time of his trip, we were in one of our periodic micturation contests with Pakistan. Pakistan barred US passport holders who were not accredited diplomats or working for international aid agencies full time. They flat were not allowed into the country. If he had a US passport, it was not valid for entry to Pakistan, and he was an illegal Westerner in a country that was, at the time, mickle hostile to Americans.

Indonesia, however, had their equivalent of easy entry to Pakistan like between the US and Canada; because both are Muslim countries. Pakistan would not look twice at an Indonesian coming in.

Given his status as the adopted son of an Indonesian national, who was listed as an Indonesian national in their school records [the schools he attended there were only for Indonesians, no foreigners allowed, no exceptions]; and since his route went through Indonesia, the obvious suspicion is that he used an Indonesian passport.

The problem with that is that there is now, and never has been, dual US-Indonesian citizenship as a legal concept between the two countries. Indonesia only issues passports to Indonesian nationals. Accepting an Indonesian passport is equivalent to renunciation of US citizenship.

Given the fact that his citizenship has been challenged and never satisfactorally resolved [the Hawaii government statement ONLY said that they had a birth certificate on file. Hawaii allows registration of overseas births, and notes it in Box 7C of the long form. That Box is now classified material.], the second challenge to his citizenship takes on a certain importance.

This, of course, is a matter that is totally beyond the Pale in US politics. If the Indonesian government were ever to publish copies of Indonesian naturalization papers, an oath of allegiance signed by Obama, and photocopies of his Indonesian passport; there would be dead silence in the American media about it.

Perforce, because it edges close to a political question that the American media does not want to examine; we will not see any information that illuminates Hussein Pasha’s sympathies and intentions in dealing with the Muslim world, until his irrevocable actions bring on either an epiphany …. or perhaps a blinding flash of light accompanied by Gamma radiation.

Subotai Bahadur

Feb 14, 2009 - 1:37 pm 54. Leo Linbeck III:

Walt,

A lovely poem. Thx for sharing it, and all your others, here at the Club.

——

There once was a poet named Walt
Who hammered out verse without fault

And of’n his best stuff
Came off of the cuff

Awed fellows his odes did exalt

——

Cheers.
L3

Feb 14, 2009 - 1:45 pm 55. whiskey:

Sylvester –

Obama by his own account had ONE Pakistani room-mate, a man who he had little in common with, supposedly, who he rarely saw, supposedly, and who he wrote in some condemnatory words, about the man’s drug habit.

The man was also about five years older and working as a cabbie.

For that, he spent a considerable amount of money to fly from Jakarta to Islamabad, and spend months in Pakistan as detailed in Pakistani newspapers?

Who paid for the trip? Why did he go there since in his own words he had little to do with his room-mate?

Only a shared immersion in Islam (he criticizes the room-mate later in the book for falling away from Islam) would explain Obama’s considerable effort, time, expense in visiting Pakistan. At any rate he did not by all accounts spend much time at all with the relatives of the Pakistani room-mate and as you noted did not visit Kenya.

SteveAZ — Your Mom was presumably not a broke College student with a long association by his own account with radicals on campus and no social ties whatsoever to his room-mate. Trips require money. They also require interest. Assuming Obama was a normal heterosexual man, what would interest him in Pakistan, vs. Bali right next door? Pakistan is not known for it’s Girls and Surfing. Things of intense interest to normal young men.

As to why Obama generates this kind of reaction? He is exotic, non-White, socially hip, “cool” and therefore of great interest to the narrow elite that have dominated US politics, wealth, and culture for the last sixty years (mostly rich WASP yuppies like Ayers and Dohrn) and the broad swath of single women who now make up most of the female population.

In both cases, endless status wars create the dominant concern of the social environment. Not security. Not accomplishment. Not achievement. Not a strong economy. Rather, having the most “correct” beliefs, belongings, and status. “Curb Your Enthusiasm” or Seinfeld detailed this well. Particularly the episode where Larry David MUST have a Prius.

Democrats always look for a JFK figure because he deeply appeals to women voters. Given the demographic changes, and the innate hostility women, the elite, and non-Whites feel to average White men (see Robert Reich’s No White Men Need Apply) this makes sense but offers only endless punishment to the losers (White Men) and carries within it the seeds of it’s own destruction. If for nothing else, provocative weakness.

Feb 14, 2009 - 2:26 pm 56. Jay:

Whiskey, I am gaining and more respect for your reasoning even though I was initially skeptical. I am also skeptical of my own theories.
I did forget that he had that cabbie roomate. So I am back to the question that you allude to about why he went the Pakiland and who paid and what did he do there.

Feb 14, 2009 - 5:23 pm 57. Jay:

My son-in-law is an ethnic Chinese Indonesian. I visited Jakarta in 1992 to meet his family after our daughter married him. I was doing some work in Taiwan so I was in the “neighborhood”. For those of you who have traveled in South Asia you understand my humor.
I carried back to the US the docs that my son-in-law needed to get a green card. He refused to become a US citizen until he wanted to vote against W. He hates the US and yet he is US highly paid government employee. At least our grand daughters see themselves as Americans but that is due to my daughter’s semi pragmatism.
Ethnic Chinese in in Indonesia have to carry an identity card showing that they are Chinese. No Chinese symbols are allowed to by displayed. The “diplomats” blame the ethinic Chinese for being rich but the only rich in that fetid Java are a few rich ethnic Chinese and the Malay politicians they bribe.
So the Mesiah spend time in an environment that was rife with conflicts between Muslim extremists, unbelievably corrupt (perhaps not by African standards) and ethnic Chinese petty merchants and leftists radicals. Then to Pakiland??
This is like one of Grishams novels.

Feb 14, 2009 - 5:35 pm 58. outa my league:

LT: “Too much time was spent on speculating re Obama’s Islamist sympathies.”

Well, too little time indisputably was spent speculating that he might drop charges against the USS Cole bomber. After all, that wasn’t even one of Obama’s campaign promises…it was a black swan freebie.

Feb 14, 2009 - 8:51 pm 59. Wadeusaf:

“U.S. officials said that although no new evidence had surfaced to undercut the findings of the 2007 estimate, there was growing consensus that it provided a misleading picture and that the country was poised to reach crucial bomb-making milestones this year.”

What is the difference between making a bomb and seeking nuclear capability? The NIE stated that Iran stopped er paused its quest for the bomb to see what the US would do while in the neighborhood. Having answered that curiosity the nuclear seeking resumed.

It is a “safety dance” of words, this announcement by Panetta and the statement during an address (with a quick correction) by the President.

So where is the semaphored response from Iran? I am not certain one has been sent, but then I don’t know what to look for if a sign is to be given. A meet in Turkey? perhaps in Syria? or a “Boogie Pimp” like summit with FSR in the pivot?

There is a lot of signals traffic, and it is hard to read without a key, but as difficult as it may be I would hazard to guess that it is not a signal of distress. SO I will depress my excitable urges to utter surges of dirges or prayers to the glass. For excess does not suit the situation.

Feb 15, 2009 - 7:14 am 60. Aristide:

I posted about Obama’s trips to Pakistan, but it is still awaiting moderation – perhaps because of embedded links. I then tried just posting the links but it activated them, so here is my third attempt. I’ve posted the links with the “http” tag stripped out in the hope that the rest of the link will appear. Hope this works!

This link – ://pakistaniat.com/2008/09/01/barak-obama-pakistan/ – gives a good background on Obama ties to Pakistan.

On his first trip one of his hosts was the father of the recent caretaker Prime Minister and Senate Chairman Muhammadmian Soomro. – ://www.thenews.com.pk/print1.asp?id=108690 (this link brings up a print window, partially on top of the article, just cancel it to read the article.)

His second visit, supposedly to visit his mother, was for a few months. As best I can tell that would have been after he graduated Harvard Law (1991) and before he returned to Chicago. – ://iaoj.wordpress.com/2008/09/01/obamas-mother-stayed-in-pakistan-for-5-years/

Additional general information is here – ://atlasshrugs2000.typepad.com/atlas_shrugs/2008/09/obamas-paki-con.html

Finally, here is a partial look at a book discussing Pakistan in 1991 when Obama likely visited “his mother”! – ://www.jstor.org/pss/2645219

Feb 15, 2009 - 9:11 am 61. Aristide:

Earlier attempts to post about Obama’s trips to Pakistan are still awaiting moderation – perhaps because of embedded links, etc. Hope this works!

On his first trip in 1981, one of his hosts was the father of the recent caretaker Prime Minister and Senate Chairman Muhammadmian Soomro.

His second visit, supposedly to visit his mother, was for a few months. As best I can tell that would have been after he graduated Harvard Law (1991) and before he returned to Chicago. Google “Pakistan in 1991″ and read the brief JSTOR Asian Survey description of the political situation in Pakistan at the time.

Feb 15, 2009 - 9:42 am 62. Darius:

As far as I have lived , every thing has been a threat to U.S National Security.
From solid to liquid and gaseous material, European,Asian, , little and big countries and even its own citizen.
When will U.S.A feel safe?

U.S.A no longer can survive with truth,it existence relies on lies and fabrications and special interest groups.
May be it is time to listen to RON PAUL .

Feb 15, 2009 - 12:17 pm 63. Leonidas:

Then we will fight in the shade, Darius.

Feb 15, 2009 - 12:45 pm 64. Fred2:

This is all mindless alarmism — the ICBM’s are for generating electricity.

Feb 15, 2009 - 1:51 pm 65. Darius:

Fred2
United States has to be worried and feel unsafe ,when his top secret
is stolen and looks the other way.U.S has to be worried when his technology
is sold to China and looks the other way.
U.S has to worry when all his national concerns become a special group
and 1.5 yrs of campaign does not mention of economic disaster but focuses how to deal with a country that base on existing data doesn’t even own a plane capable of flying .
There is difference between using realistic approach and finding real threat rather than changing it to give advantage to special group.
You should be alarmed that the last 50 years ,there has been no U.S allies that ended up becoming a revolutionary force against U.S.A.
U.S.A is far more greater than superpower. All U.S.A needs it
cultural, technological power to defeat any country or religious
fanatic.
When I was struggling to understand (1978-1979), why US propaganda machine is forcing Khomeini into Iranian life, you probably here in US
were all for it .I guess , you never learn.Just keep watching T.V .

Feb 15, 2009 - 2:33 pm 66. blert:

@ Darius 63…

I am struggling to understand your post…

Obviously, English is not your first language.

I’d love to respond yeah or nay…

But I can’t figure out what you’ve posted.

Feb 15, 2009 - 3:55 pm 67. Starling:

Peter Boston said: “Barck Obama is the perfect subject for de Mesquita’s theory because Obama is a pure political animal. There is almost nothing the man has ever done that was not designed to first advance his personal career, regardless of the bad effect on others.
How does publicly stating that Iran is building a nuke satisfy a key Obama constituency? Figure that out and you have a good handle on Dear Leader’s foreign policy direction.”

Peter, if he is “a pure political animal” who acts “to first his personal career”, then isn’t one interpretation of “publicly stating Iran is building a nuke” is to be on record in case he needs to attack them at some future date.

Also, if he is “a pure political animal” who acts “to first his personal career” then isn’t he himself, by definition, the key constituency?

Feb 15, 2009 - 4:03 pm 68. A Conservative Teacher:

Are you sure about this? No blogs are mentioning it and the media isn’t loudly shouting “Bush was right.” How can this be, that Republicans and Bush were right and Democrats and Obama were 100% wrong, and no mention is being made in the media?

Feb 15, 2009 - 8:14 pm 69. jerryofva:

Late comment for Armageddon Rex: Israel is well aware of difficulties of taking down Iran’s nuclear capability with conventional weapons. It is doubtful that we could do it. That leaves them with two options. Special operations and nuclear weapons. I believe that they will try the first option and if it doesn’t do the job then they will move to Plan B.

The world is both increasingly hostile to Jews and Israel while at the same time they are incapable of action. Israel knows that when the time comes to use their nuclear forces the Europeans and Americans will just issue statements, the Russians will celebrate higher oil prices and the Chinese will just shrug it off and move on. The Sunnis will congratulate Israel in private for the saving them just as the Saudis did when Israel took out the Osirak reactor.

Feb 15, 2009 - 8:56 pm 70. steveaz:

I think I get you Darius.

The Iranian people are as tired of international media meddling in their domestic politics as Americans, Chinese and Indians are.

If this is your take, I think you’ll find agreement across a wide swath of the globe’s people.

I mean, can “terror” of any kind even work without media to broadcast and amplify its emotional toll? No. Remove its media-enabler (as Israel did recently in Gaza), and “terror” loses hands-down.

Feb 16, 2009 - 1:59 pm 71. buddy larsen:

I think Darius is talking about Jimmy Carter’s “Human Rights” grandstanding, as the force which pulled the Ayatollah from Paris to Teheran, and pushed the Shah into exile. Hey, good shot jimmy!

Oops, i didn’t mean your sister-in-law’s cat, i just meant to use the idiomatic phrase “good shot” as in “way to go”, as in “way to go, genius, you gave away our Panama Canal and Leonid still didn’t notice you boycotted the Olympics (tho our athletes sure did, robbed of their careers).

Or, “good shot, you finally matched interest rates and inflation at 20 apiece!”

Was that kitty cat’s name “Malaise”?

or “For the Wall, No Amnesty Required”?

or “whither Hugo est, so I go est. For I am the Kingdom, and the President, and the Peanut.”

“I Build the Houses That Fall Over”

(”Well that’s not MY fault, if the cameras had stayed longer, we’d have used up more nails and the durn roof woulda stayed on.”)

Feb 17, 2009 - 3:10 am 72. someone:

I’m really starting to think that certain entities keep reincarnating.

I propose that when the next one shows up that we put it into frozen stasis. Hitler, Napoleon, Stalin, Lenin, Castro, et al can stay in a freezer,

Feb 19, 2009 - 6:27 am

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