Bret Stephens at Commentary details the history behind what the Obama administration may now try: a rapproachment with Syria. He describes the repeated triumph of Washington’s hope over experience and results which might compared to the battered wife syndrome. The Assads seem to have the remarkable ability to keep spurning Western diplomacy and insulting it into the bargain, but they “still love him”. And they always will.
“Start with Syria.” Thus did Aaron David Miller advise the incoming Obama administration on where its Mideast peacemaking priorities should lie. Miller, a former State Department official who first made a name for himself as a leading American negotiator in the Arab-Israeli peace processes of the 1990’s, had lost his faith that a deal between Israel and the Palestinians was possible, at least in the near term. But he was more sanguine about the prospects of an Israeli-Syrian deal, and confident about the good that could come of it. … Say what you will about the advisability—either for Israel or the United States—of engaging the Syrians, the growing consensus on the notion constitutes one of the great surprises of recent Middle East diplomacy. For when it comes to the Syria track, the U.S. and Israel have walked down this road before, again and again, almost always with disappointing results.
Stephens proceeds to recall at great length the history of negotiation in bad faith between Damascus and the US and Israel — and Lebanon. Then, after the recitation of failed attempts we arrive the inevitable conclusion: the current administration may believe that Syria is it’s best hope for Peace in the Middle East.
In reviewing this sorry history, one must ask: Why, exactly, did it fail so badly? Was the Syria track cursed by bad luck? Did its failure owe to problems of process and tactics? Or were the very premises of the negotiation—that Assad had made or would make a strategic choice for peace, that there was a deal to be reached on terms acceptable to him and to Israel, and that he and successors would abide by the deal—fundamentally mistaken? Was the peace “missed,” as the title of Dennis Ross’s memoir implies, or was there never any hope of one to begin with?
It is really a two part question: why is the West so persistently in pursuit of engagement with Syria and why is Damascus so intransigent? The answer to both questions lies in something once said by Yitzak Rabin, which Stephens quotes. It describes the asymmetry in the desire for peace between the West and Damascus.
“At least Arafat is prepared to do things that are difficult for him,” Rabin told Dennis Ross, the Clinton administration’s Middle East point man, in the summer of 1995. “Assad wants everything handed to him and he wants to do nothing for it.”
As someone mentioned in casual conversation to me, Syria actually benefits from being the Bad Boy of the region. If it were to normalize its relations with Israel and become an ordinary, peaceable trading nation, it would lose its Front Line status with the Arab world, stop being a destination for any but the second tier of diplomats, drop to page ten in the newspapers and in general become nothing more than a fly-blown, insignificant Middle Eastern country. Syria is a world leader at trouble, but have you bought any Syrian-made consumer goods lately?
On the other hand, Israel and even Lebanon stand to do quite well as ordinary, peaceable trading nations. They produce other things, besides trouble, although in the case of Lebanon that is arguably less true. So it is natural for Jerusalem to continuously beat a path to the Assad’s doorway and equally understandable for the Assad’s to say, ‘ho hum’. Christopher Hitchens said he had won many a bet in Washington by asserting that, until recently, there was no Syrian embassy in Lebanon. During the last visit by President Sarkozy to Damascus, the French leader won a grudging pledge from the Assads to recognize their neighbor. Think about that. Syria has gotten away all these long years with not recognizing Lebanon and nobody noticed. Read this newspaper article from Dec 2008 to get a sense of just how urgently (not) Syria is setting up diplomatic shop in Beirut. They’ll get around to it eventually and half-heartedly to please Sarkozy, but in their own sweet time. Yet the Obama administration thinks they can get Damascus to jump through hoops. Good luck on that.
However, I think that Syria is not altogether comfortable being the Bad Boy of the region. It is more accurate to say that Damascus thrives in the niche between complete peace and all-out war. Just as Syria cannot compete in a regular peace it cannot survive a regular war. If all the stops were pulled out, the Israeli Army could be in Damascus and Assad’s palace bombed into a crater. The Syrians do not excel at that kind of trouble any more than they excel at making Ipods. That means that although Damascus can’t be threatened with peace, diplomats know that it fears war. Therefore Syria will be brought to the bargaining table — if such a thing were possible — only when it fears it has gone too far and wishes to return to its safe little rut in the troublemaking mud. The Syrians retreat when they overextend and not before.
That circumstance lends a great deal of instability to any peace process the Obama administration will attempt because in the nature of things, Assad cry ‘more, more!’ until he drives things to the brink, where finally terrified, he will retreat into diplomacy. Thus, there is the paradoxical danger that the administration may actually create instability by engagement. For example, Damascus is likely to demand a price for any return to the negotiating table. What will Washington feed Assad? Concessions wrung from Israel? Little bits of Lebanon? A bigger role for Hezbollah? More opportunity for the guys in Gaza to lob rockets at Sderot? They may be granted in the quest for peace. But after the photo-ops are snapped, any concessions of this nature to Syria are likely, in the medium term, to give rise to even more unrest in the Middle East.
Ultimately, the best outcome in the region would be for the Assad to be overthrown by local events. But that is unlikely to happen, nor will there be any impetus from the West. Washington has all but put regime change off the table. So they’ll try to buy him off. In a second best world, Washington is likely to woo Damascus, simply because it can’t stop chanting “all we are saying, is give peace a chance”. That’s in its nature as much as trouble is in Assad’s. But here’s another song that is more appropriate to the situation, not from from the peace movement but from Frank Sinatra.
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29 Comments
1. blert:Only a devout practitioner of doublethink could take even the first step to Damascus.
The Alawites are so deeply in bed with Iran just to maintain their existence in a sea of Sunnis…
And just what kind of hudna could Obama expect to get?
It doesn’t pass the smell test.
Mar 4, 2009 - 2:19 pm 2. Raoul Ortega:“If at first you don’t’ succeed, try again. Then give up. No use being a damn fool about it.” — W.C.Fields
Mar 4, 2009 - 2:30 pm 3. Alexis:Whenever it becomes more profitable to be America’s enemy than America’s friend, America will have more enemies and fewer friends.
Mar 4, 2009 - 2:49 pm 4. noprisoners:Three great and wise comments above.
I have never felt as alone as when I crossed the border between Lebanon and Syria. I was travelling to Amman in a Lebanese wedding party. All the passports were taken into the customs building by the bus driver. After about ten minutes, he came back and asked me (via sign language) to come inside. They just wanted to get a look at me apparently but, they went out of their way to be unfriendly and somewhat intimidating.
On the return trip to Beirut, we were stopped at the Jordan/Syrian border. THis time the inspector came on the bus. He and I had a stare down although he only looked at my passport and I was surrounded by friends. I have the idea that the Syrian government doesn’t like Americans.
I see no good coming from this; and, possibly great peril for Lebanon’s future. I hope that I am wrong.
Mar 4, 2009 - 3:12 pm 5. Herb:The Great Ophthalmologist has no interest in peace. He is only interested in self preservation (first) and self aggrandizement (second).
For perspective on the islamic negotiation style see this: http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/war-and-peace-%E2%80%94-and-deceit-%E2%80%94-in-islam-part-1/
Ive done enough negotiations for everything from a car to construction projects to know the first principal: you cannot negotiate with somebody who will lie to you.
All of “them idiots” in the US Dept of State who think these is a pot of gold at the end of some rainbow in SW Arabia are fools. Just simply fools. The Israelis would happily tend their corner of the desert in peace if given the chance, but their neighbors would just as happily kill them to a baby. This is the central fact of the whole “palestinian issue”
Once one understands that fact, the rest is easy. It will take a huge price rise in the cost of attacks on Israel to end them.
I note the O’bamma regime has pledged $900,000,000 to repair the Gaza strip of the consequences of the recent billing and collection by the Israelis. This does not raise the price.
Lather, rinse, repeat.
Mar 4, 2009 - 3:26 pm 6. Herb:principal=principle
Mar 4, 2009 - 3:27 pm 7. RWE:Someone pointed out that Clinton’s SecState, Warren Christopher, spent so much time in Damascus that he was in danger of being required to apply for resident alien status there.
But not to worry, SecState Clinton will be so much better. Why, I just read where she took incredibly bold action today and accused Iran of trying to intimidate others in the region! I am waiting for her proclamation that the ocean is rather wet and kinda salty.
Mar 4, 2009 - 3:33 pm 8. Fat Man:Baby Assad knows that if opens to the west, he will have to face trial for his murders in Lebanon. Furthermore, the new Israeli government will not be anxious to give away the store. The only basis for a deal would be shutting down the tribunal and giving back the Golan, so there is no possible deal.
Mar 4, 2009 - 4:04 pm 9. sirius_sir:Ultimately, the best outcome in the region would be for the Assad to be overthrown by local events.
Or simply overthrown.
Mar 4, 2009 - 4:06 pm 10. E. Nigma:So where does that leave us, then?
The Bush Doctrine is obviously dead, and it was so young and promising.
There will be no regime change from the outside.
Assad has enough of an apparatus to control the populace in this relatively poor country.
They will continue to interfer with the internal politics of Lebanon.
They will continue to allie themselves with Iran.
They will continue to foster a low grade hostility towards Israel.
They would like the Golan Heights back, as that gives the Israelis a look right down into Syria, and makes it deucedly hard to bring about a military surprise against the Israelis.
So giving them back the Golan will do what? To change the internal politics of Syria?
Some time in the future, the US will tire of being involved in ME politics, and this mess will get more violent and bloodier, until we have to get involved again and slap some of these jokers around.
This is a multi-generational mess and Hillary! does not have the abilities, brainpower or diplomatic skills to unravel it. No one does, unless we are really willing to use military force to extract and agreement from these double-dealing jokers. And the social response to the Iraq War (OIF) has shown that the people of this country won’t tolerate that again.
End of story.
Mar 4, 2009 - 4:16 pm 11. Mongoose:In time GWB will have proved be have been right, bold and resourceful.
Hope more Americans do not have to die for this simple fact to be seen.
It is truly amazing how stupid and venal the “leaders” of the world are. makes one wonder how we survived this long.
Mar 4, 2009 - 4:48 pm 12. Mongoose:proved be=proved to
Mar 4, 2009 - 4:49 pm 13. RWE:“….have you bought any Syrian-made consumer goods lately?”
Nope, but I know who has. The North Koreans bought a shipload of solid rocket propellant resin from Syria. And while that is not what we would call a “consumer good” it is about as close as Syria and North Korea get to the concept.
By the way, I have an Israeli-made toolbox out in the garage. Surprisingly, it was both cheaper and better made than the Chinese ones at Home Depot.
And Israeli-made guidance computers have guided American space boosters.
Mar 4, 2009 - 5:00 pm 14. blert:RWE…
The entire 8086 et seq were designed in Haifa.
Mar 4, 2009 - 5:24 pm 15. Eggplant:noprisoners said:
“I have the idea that the Syrian government doesn’t like Americans.”
Actually, I’ve always wanted to tour Damascus. People say it’s a very interesting city and doesn’t have the nasty tourist hustle one experiences in Cairo. I wonder how Damascus rates next to Istanbul as a tourist spot?
Mar 4, 2009 - 6:58 pm 16. Brock:How about we kill Assad and most of the Syrian military, and if we don’t like the guys that take their place, kill them. Rinse & repeat until good outcome. This is much easier than trying to install anyone in particular or running the country.
Mar 4, 2009 - 7:25 pm 17. noprisoners:Eggplant:
I cannot speak to the “feel” of Damascus as we only drove through the outskirts. The architecture did not look particularly interesting from afar. I have Syrian friends who say that the young “hip” Syrians do everything that they can to emulate their American counterparts. Apparently it is cool to use American slang, wear American-type garb and have American-type items like Ipods. That is second hand. I cannot confirm from personal experience.
Mar 4, 2009 - 7:30 pm 18. geoffgo:Mongoose@11
You are surely correct, sir. However, our public schools will never teach those observations, as BDS is now printed the texts and imprinted in the minds of our teaching corps.
Mar 4, 2009 - 7:40 pm 19. noprisoners:Off topic:
Has anyone else noticed that Obama always speaks of the government and his office’s items in the possesive? It is “his Secretary of the Treasury”, his policy, his budget, etc. It seems to me that previous presidents spoke of “THE budget”, THE Secratary of the Treasury, THE office of the President. Am I wrong? I think that there is something wrong in a psychiatric sort of way. But, I have no traing in this area so I will not try to determine what. Maybe someone else in the BC family can hazard a guess?
What type of mentality does this speak of?
Mar 4, 2009 - 7:41 pm 20. ECM:noprisoners:
Narcissistic personality disorder is a mental disorder in which people have an inflated sense of their own importance and a deep need for admiration. They believe that they’re superior to others and have little regard for other people’s feelings. But behind this mask of ultra-confidence lies a fragile self-esteem, vulnerable to the slightest criticism.
From: http://www.mayoclinic.com/health/narcissistic-personality-disorder/DS00652
Mar 4, 2009 - 8:13 pm 21. starling:noprisoners: I think your impresswion is correct. Socrates spoke to Alcibiades about this same thing well over 2000 years ago. Who will deliver the same lecture to the One?
Wretchard, a short post from 3 years on my business blog examined a MEMRI report on structural problems in the Syrian economy. http://tinyurl.com/d827em Not much has changed since then, except possibly for the worse.
Mar 4, 2009 - 8:44 pm 22. Lifeofthemind:The late Miles Copeland of the CIA, the father of the rock drummer, wrote a book titled “The Game of Nations” about Egypt’s leader who perfected the art of falling uphill. The best line was something like, “Why is it so important for Nasser to appear like a big wheel before a bunch of losers?”
Mar 4, 2009 - 10:14 pm 23. Utopia Parkway:In 2000 or so during the last Israeli-Syrian negotiations the negotiations foundered on a 10 meter wide strip of land. AFAIK all the other issues had been agreed to. I believe that today the Israelis are no more likely to give up this strip of land and the Syrians are no more likely to give up the demand for it. There are of course plenty of new issues, like Iran, Hez, Hamas and whatever else. In Israel no one really is willing to give up the Golan. Israel has controlled it for longer than modern Syria did (!) The articles that I’ve read in the Israeli press make suggestions like, if we were to get real peace then we could lease Golan for 99 years, or if we were to get real peace then we could give up half of Golan etc. No one trusts Assad and Syria’s idea of peace mainly just includes getting back the Golan. They have no interest in an Israeli embassy in Damascus or trade agreements or any kind of normal relations with a normal country.
What will eventually happen is that Syria will step over the line and Israel and/or the US will be forced to act. There will be a regional war. It will be brutal. And then there will be peace.
Mar 4, 2009 - 10:42 pm 24. Lifeofthemind:The sequence should have been: 2001 Afghanistan, 2002 Lebanon, 2003 Syria, 2004 Iraq, 2005 Iran. Going straight into Iraq in 2003, without securing a flank, was a bold move but proved A Bridge to Far. On the local level it worked eventually and the virus of Democracy may be inserted, time will tell. It did not serve as a jumping off point for securing America’s interests in successfully prosecuting the War on Islamist Terror in neighboring sanctuaries.
Mar 4, 2009 - 10:56 pm 25. Sam:Wonder how long we’re going to be in this hellish place called the Middle East.
It actually seems like the best scenario would be to move Israel out of the place altogether.
Can we find them island in Pacific Canada/US coastline and have them migrate there? Then we don’t have to worry about the Arabs/Middle East so much?
We can give New Israel the proper military protection then as a US State or a colony. Talk about a boot-on-the-ground project!
Israel’s revenge to the Arabs can be a portable fusion generator!
Mar 5, 2009 - 6:26 am 26. JMH:How about we kill Assad and most of the Syrian military, and if we don’t like the guys that take their place, kill them. Rinse & repeat until good outcome. This is much easier than trying to install anyone in particular or running the country.
The Roman Republic had sort of the same philosophy. The first time some region caused trouble, Rome would defeat it, install a new government, then bring all their troops home and grant their defeated enemy independence saying “we’d rather be your friends than your masters.” Some places caused trouble a second time, in which case the Romans would repeat the whole process over again. Most places figured it out after the second time.
But some people continued to cause trouble. Those, eventually, the Romans would decide simply couldn’t govern themselves without causing trouble for their neighbors. They’d either be annexed as a provinced ruled from Rome without any self government (e.g. Macedonia), or simply destroyed and the people told to go live (or die, whatever, we don’t care) somewhere else (e.g. Carthage or Corinth).
Mar 5, 2009 - 10:31 am 27. blert:Sam…
I understand there is a weakness in their inertial containment mechanism.
Hence, they have a very short operational life.
Mar 5, 2009 - 12:07 pm 28. Carl Sesar:Talking it up with Syria is just another way for Obama to 1) undermine the United States, and 2) soften Israel up for the kill. Every little bit helps.
Mar 5, 2009 - 5:44 pm 29. buddy larsen:LOL –’portable fusion generator’ –meanwhile, should it ever come to that, Israel should look at a map of Texas –the coastline from Corpus Christi to Brownsville and inland an approprite distance to match the current size of Israel: 1) warm weather 2) seacoast 3) very lightly populated [mostly big ranches] by friendly folks most of whom would welcome some growth & excitement.
Mar 5, 2009 - 9:41 pm