155 Comments

1. wretchard:

It’s probably time for BHO to stop being about the Big Future and concentrate on surviving the Present. We’re told that the budget will be balanced, but only after first running absolutely record-setting deficits; that there will be cheap and universal health care if only we’ll put a few hundred billions up front; that all America’s enemies will be reconciled to it if we make nice to them first; that Climate Change will end and the oceans will start to fall, after few hundred billion carbon credits more. We were going to kick Osama Bin Laden’s ass, but only after voting Obama into office. Now sometimes I wonder whether we aren’t in one of those restaurants where the filet mignon advertised on the menu turns out to be shoe leather with package gravy.

Nothing about the President’s past gives me much solace. The was the first black president of the Harvard Law Review, but one with no articles to his name; a promising legislator but one without a substantial legislative record. One cruel wag said Obama loves the future because that’s where all his accomplishments are. He runs the danger of being the Coming Man who never came. Each time his nonperformance was explained by arguing that the job was too small to contain him. He was always destined for greater things. Now he is the President of the United States. This is is it. I can only hope he succeeds because in this global world, we are on a cliff linked by a single rope. Part of that rope is in Pakistan. I hope he can belay it, but I don’t expect it.

Mar 15, 2009 - 3:22 am 2. wildernesscalling:

Wretchard, “0″ zombies “arguing that the job was too small to contain him” ain’t much more to go before he contemplates Emperor of the Earth and then God, of course he will reach nether, Like I asked before, when “0″ fails (larger than any before) will Bidden be far behind via the works of “Goof-of-State” Clinton or will Pelosi be able to wiggle herself in by cut throat political means.

Mar 15, 2009 - 3:52 am 3. ADE:

In all my projects, I make a plea for humility, reiterate Cromwell “I beseech thee in the bowels of Christ,…”

Never saw it in the O’Mighty.

Let’s hope Churchill is right and God is watching out.

A bit closer to reality, let’s hope the CIA’s Pakistani nuke extraction team is ready to go.

ADE

Mar 15, 2009 - 4:00 am 4. lc:

Here we get the bold and audacious new realpolitik – unfortunately symbolism will take you only so far, and redefining the problem (away) MAYbe will buy you some time (at what price?) I’ve read where lots of people thought Hilary was a great choice for Sec. of State. For the life of me, I don’t understand why…but then, most anybody they chose would have been basically interchangeable.

Kind of oblique to the topic; interesting article re: the current narrative on the global war on terror, particularly as it relates to Bin Laden and al Qaeda. (its sort of Laurie Mylroie redux; she who was shouted down by Jamie Gorelick at the 9/11 commission hearings). Article is called Osama bin Elvis:

http://spectator.org/archives/2009/03/13/osama-bin-elvis/1

Mar 15, 2009 - 4:40 am 5. lc:

oops, sorry, this link will get you to the start of the article.

http://spectator.org/archives/2009/03/13/osama-bin-elvis

Mar 15, 2009 - 4:43 am 6. Doug:

Michael Yon:
Afghan Army
12 March 2009

There is dispute whether the testimony to the British House of Commons regarding the Afghan National Army is correct.

Part of that testimony was published on my site yesterday.

Colonel Bill Hix emailed to me from Afghanistan with an on-the-ground view. It is important to note that Colonel Hix is a veteran of Iraq, with much experience in the tough parts of Afghanistan. I was out with his soldiers in late 2008. Colonel Hix is highly respected among combat soldiers who don’t hand out respect easily. His views on Afghanistan are highly-informed, cautious and realistic, but definitely more optimistic than are mine. I greatly respect his highly informed opinion and so it’s important to make sure Colonel Hix’s counterpoints get wide distribution. Please link to this dispatch. (Note to journalists seeking truth on Afghanistan: Colonel Hix is at KAF and is an important source regarding conditions in southern Afghanistan.)

This from Colonel Bill Hix regarding the testimony:

Mar 15, 2009 - 5:12 am 7. Doug:

The Aimless War

Mar 15, 2009 - 5:13 am 8. Doug:

On the Frontlines in the Battle Against the Taliban – Photo Essays -

Mar 15, 2009 - 5:22 am 9. Doug:

Despite U.S. Efforts, Tension Mounts in Pakistan

Mar 15, 2009 - 5:29 am 10. tharkun:

RE: >Winston Churchill once said that “God watches out for little children, fools, drunks and the United States of America”. Let’s hope the charm holds.

A respectful correction, the original quote is attributed to Otto von Bismarck, Germany’s Iron Chancellor, around 1884 or 1886 (depending on the source). There are also two translation variants (again, depending on the source):

1. “There is a Providence that protects idiots, drunkards, children and the United States of America.”

2. “God has a special providence for fools, drunks, and the United States of America.”

The expression is thought to be a derivation of an traditional French adage.

Mar 15, 2009 - 5:51 am 11. I'm Just Plain Dumb:

We are soon going to learn that the famous Biden “foreign policy test” of Obama is going to be a bit more a than a ship of Chinese sailors cruising close by to moon our navy.

Mar 15, 2009 - 5:52 am 12. Barry 0351:

When the Commander in Chief of the United States of America’s armed forces says we are losing in Afganistan then we have lost already.
We lost Iraq Nov. 5 2008

Mar 15, 2009 - 6:13 am 13. jjmurphy:

I don’t know enough about military strategy comment on Afghanistan, the Taliban “truce”, etc. But there are two things that I do know. 1) Pakistan is a not too far from becoming a radical Islamic state; 2) They have nuclear weapons. What then?

Mar 15, 2009 - 6:26 am 14. F:

When someone talks of solving the Pakistan problem by throwing more money at it you know they’re out of their depth. Billions more in foreign assistance will not cure what ails that teetering regime, and the limited vision of Kerry and Lugar demonstrates beyond all reasonable doubt that our Congress should turn foreign affairs over to the professionals, although one is not reassured by Hillary’s performance with the infamous “reset” button. (If State’s Language Services couldn’t come up with the correct word in Russian, what chance do they have getting it right in Urdu?)

Seriously, the old saw about every problem looking like a nail if all you have is a hammer applies to Congress, only the tool is money vice a hammer. Doubtless money will be involved, but better thinking needs to go into the actual needs to be addressed with that money. The hope that $20 billion will do what $5 billion has not is fantasy. And it is that kind of thinking that has given rise to the current impoverishment of our grandchildren.

We really do need better vision in Washington. The time has come to take management of the asylum back from the inmates. F

Mar 15, 2009 - 7:04 am 15. Lifeofthemind:

How will nuclear war calculate into the whole environmental sensitivity posture? Will Al Gore have enough carbon credits to trade to cover that?

Didn’t BHO himself say at one point “When I actually do something I’ll tell you?”

The Indians and the Chinese have to sit down and decide what the end game will look like. The Indians can’t move if the Chinese can stab them in the back. I predict Endlosung in Tibet and a Chinese Corridor to the Iranian gas fields.

Mar 15, 2009 - 7:18 am 16. Michael Hoskins:

@1…”the Coming Man who never came.” Ouch.
@2… Engineers view themselves as great mathmeticians. Mathmeticians view themselves as great physicists. Physicists view themselves as great philosophers. Philosophers view themselves as God. Where Lawyers? Especially those with no record of practice or opinion.

BC has discussed this issue in various garbs many times. It’s a bitch being right, ain’t it? Being right, as of now, will not mitigate the blood. Barney is trying to reduce defense budget 25%, O is shooting for an immediate 10%. All to finance the liberal wet dream (being only a dream, having failed per above).

Each time this happens the first flurry kills oh so many. Problem is the oceans are not a wide as they used to be, and so many on our side of the water really think that cooing back at the hard men will stop the incoming.

Can we survive till 2010?

Mar 15, 2009 - 7:21 am 17. Michael Hoskins:

LOM @ 15. The world so wants the end of America as a lone super power. Now that we have surrendered all in the name of whatever, who fills the vacuum? China and India of course. Both are nuclear, with a common border and big populations. Pakistan in chaos offers both a chance to reach west. Neither will tolerate Islamic extremism.

Curiouser and curiouser.

Mar 15, 2009 - 7:27 am 18. Pajamas Media » Pakistan Implodes:

[...] Read the entire piece here. [...]

Mar 15, 2009 - 7:27 am 19. programmer:

For the last eight years
Competence was oft hidden
Chaos reveals much

Mar 15, 2009 - 7:30 am 20. Lifeofthemind:

To spin out my South and East Asian concepts, the question is how stable is China going forward? If the loss of export markets breaks the urban economies hard enough then they will not be able to function as safety valves for rural poverty. The basic communist model has always been to fund urban industrialization by extracting resources from the rural peasantry. The refinement in the last 20 years has been that the incredibly productive Americans, especially wealth creating farmers, have stepped in to help. The chinese regime has no inherent legitimacy except for inertia. It really is a pure fascism but stripped of even the ideological pretensions that underlay Mussolini. If urban stability cracks under the pressure of 30,000,000 unemployed then the unrest that comes from poverty and corruption have always left simmering in the countryside could explode. China could dissolve and do so more violently than the Soviet Union did. So the big question is does China expand like a Red Giant or collapse like a white dwarf? India needs to act fast with regard to Pakistan and can not wait while China sorts itself out.

Mar 15, 2009 - 7:44 am 21. Brock:

I have a small hope that when Pakistan collapses the USA and India are able to send in teams of SpecOps that take control of and destroy the nuclear capability before they fall into Taliban hands. In my less lucid dreams India further sucks the air out of the Islamist’s plans by re-absorbing the territories of Indian culture on its western border, depriving the Islamists of the only parts of the country even remotely capable of supporting a modern state.

Mar 15, 2009 - 7:57 am 22. Michael Hoskins:

@20. Exactly. Add to your comment the fact that Chinese leadership is neither stupid nor interested in losing power. 30MM on a march west relieves many pressures, fuel, population burden and loss of American market for gimcrackery. AK’s are notoriously simple to build.

In some respects, assuming that India is not pulled into the fray, it may not be such a bad scenario. The mountains do channel any westward push by the Chinese north of India. The Russians will expiate a masonry unit seeing themselves flanked. Islam will not fare well under the Chinese.

But the unintended consequences are huge.

Mar 15, 2009 - 7:59 am 23. Wally Lind:

“George W. Bushchimp”? What is this Belmont Club? Kindergarten? This is what pajamas Media is all about? What can we do to win the Afghan War? That’s what we should be talking about. What we should be doing is what General Petreaus did in Iraq, giving the Afghan people the breathing space to develop their own political system and defense. So when kindergarten gets out, let’s do that.

Mar 15, 2009 - 7:59 am 24. Neil Craig:

The reason Bismark’s remark was true in the 1870s was that the USA was not only wealthy but out of the way (Europe then being the cockpit of the world) & as Washington had suggested free of entangling alliances. Nowadays the US stick its nose everywhere, even into places like Ossetia. This is inevitably why it has more enemies than in Bismark’s time.

Mar 15, 2009 - 8:05 am 25. Michael Hoskins:

Wally,
The are a couple of Engineered solutions available. Please check out the city of Ottawa and the Commonwealth of Kentucky. Each had a particular problem, Ottawa with managed growth and Kentucky with poverty problems “Up East”.

Ottawa built a road to nowhere. But, being to nowhere, it was relatively cheap to build. Now nowhere, is somewhere. “If you build it they will use it.”

Kentucky forced, and I mean forced, a four lane Highway from London straight east into the mountains. (the Daniel Boone Parkway). It opened up areas that only see the sun from 11 am to 2 pm. People and goods can now move in and out of the region for the first time quickly and safely.

So. Push a road from Karachi to Afg. Roughly paralell to Iranian border. Don’t ask, don’t tell, do it. Hold it.

Build more roads into the toughest neighborhoods. Once isolation is broken, the evils of western culture will begin to have effect.

Easy. Heck no. Expensive, heck yes. Doable, absolutely. Will we or any combination of West/ NATO get our heads out of the sand long enough to even think about it. Hell no.

Finally, Wally, BC has beat this dog to death. In addition to my simplistic (KISS) approaches, many very smart people have posited here other more sophisiticated solutions. Our problem is the incontinent “O”ne.

So, Wally, how do we solve that problem?

Mar 15, 2009 - 8:20 am 26. Michael Hoskins:

Neil@24. Define “Stick nose in” please.

Mar 15, 2009 - 8:21 am 27. Kevin:

Typical of Pakistan. They elect a thoroughly corrupt socialist party then go throw a temper-tantrum over the corruption,etc. Next the military will step in, declare the current ruling party corrupt, then either put them on trial or kick them out. The main difference now is the concessions made to the Taliban. In all a rather worthless nation.

Mar 15, 2009 - 8:39 am 28. Kathy L.:

I knew things would deteriorate in Pakistan when Pres. Musharraf was pressured out of office. He was our friend and ally, and I think he was the only thing keeping that country together and he tried hard. I truly hope he is enjoying his life somewhere. I have been working for a long time and hope to retire next year. I hope our economic system holds together long enough for me to get at least a few social security payments when I retire. I have been paying into it for a long time. Is there anyone who has confidence in Obama and his economic team? I don’t. Maybe if his treasury secty wasn’t a known tax cheat.

Mar 15, 2009 - 8:41 am 29. Lifeofthemind:

Someday. somewhere Ngo Diem, Haile Sellassie, Perez Musharraf and Reza Pahlevi will get to play Bridge together.

Mar 15, 2009 - 8:53 am 30. Derek:

I think that Bush was hated because he represented a reality that was unacceptable.

Now Bush is gone, but the reality is still there.

Prediction time: how long until women are shot in stadiums in Afghanistan?

I give it 3 years.

Derek

Mar 15, 2009 - 8:55 am 31. WillDoMathForFood:

This is the essence of liberal thought: that there are ALWAYS sufficient resources to do EVERYTHING you want to do. It’s only a matter of inefficient distribution. And if somebody holds some resources that you need (i.e., want) – like, for example, “the rich” – then, well, we’ll just have to do something about that inconvenient little inefficient distribution system. And, by the way, even if the quantity of those resources has fallen 50% or so in the last six months, well, infinity is still infinity. See premise #1.

Mar 15, 2009 - 9:05 am 32. trangbang68:

Relax, Obama has a grip on the the Islamist chaos. The Hitlers in Headscarves will no longer be called Enemy combatants. They will now be called Those in Timeout or Those Who Don’t Play Well with Others.Of course we must assure that their self esteem isn’t harmed so we can lovingly welcome them back into the playgroup.
“Now, now, Akmal good boys and girls don’t play with suitcase nukes.”

Mar 15, 2009 - 9:16 am 33. WillDoMathForFood:

Michael @ 16. I’m an engineer (BS) AND a mathematician (MS). I KNOW I can’t do physics, so I skipped right past that and went straight to philosopher. And, no, that’s not really working out very well for me.

Mar 15, 2009 - 9:17 am 34. Mike Sylwester:

Wretchard:
The Asia Times highlights the greatest proximate danger from fast-breaking developments in Pakistan. The truce between the Taliban and the fracturing Pakistani government has released thousands of fighters to begin an offensive in Pakistan.

… an offensive in Afghanistan.

Mar 15, 2009 - 9:37 am 35. NahnCee:

“They have nuclear weapons.”

1. How do we know they (still) have nuclear weapons? Have they tested anything successfully in the last decade?

2. If the Taliban do have access to said bombs, are they educated enough to know what button to push?

3. If they Taliban do know what button to push, how are they going to get their bomb from there to here? Do we really think the Paki’s are sophisticated enough to be making teensy-tiny suitcase-sized bombs?

I’m not concerned about Pakistan’s alleged bombs because as far as I can see, all they can do with them is nuke Russia or China by camel. That is, IF the things are still functioning and haven’t degraded into slime and dust with the passage of time.

As for Musharref being our friend: pffffftttt! A hearty Bronx raspberry for *that* loony liberal idea. I hope he and Khan are both roasting in the first levels of the hell that they will be spending the rest of their existance in.

Mar 15, 2009 - 9:39 am 36. Alexis:

23:

Much of the Obama campaign this past year did have all of the maturity one would find in a kindergarten or a show about a purple dinosaur.

Defeating the Taliban is important. However, there are limits to what one can do to defeat enemies abroad when defeatism gets pumped into America’s political bloodstream. And much of that defeatism involved portraying President George W. Bush as a modern day Hitler, cowboy, and chimpanzee all rolled into one.

President Barack H. Obama may vent his frustration against an opposition that says “no”, but if his opposition were to act as his own supporters have acted, one would expect Barack H. Obama to be portrayed as a chimpanzee just as his own supporters portrayed George W. Bush!

Mar 15, 2009 - 9:39 am 37. Oscar the Grump:

Its going to be interesting to see how the Obama administration will dance around a collapsing Pakistan. My bet is that he fails to act and the Taliban/al Queda will wind up with nukes. They won’t hesitate to use those nukes on us in Afganistan. Count Iran out on this one, they’ll cheer from the sidelines. India will be in real trouble and have to face a long drawn out war in Pakistan with nukes in the mix. I wonder if Russia or China will recognize the danger they are in or they will act.

Mar 15, 2009 - 9:44 am 38. Lifeofthemind:

@Alexis,
But that would be raaaacist. They seriously think that that ends the debate.

Mar 15, 2009 - 9:46 am 39. Morry Rotenberg:

De-fund the Taliban by legalizing heroin (and other controlled substances) both in the USA and in Russia. A side benefit might even be a stable Mexico.

Mar 15, 2009 - 9:47 am 40. Cannoneer No. 4:

There are other shoes left to drop. The Kuwaitis and Qataris might get an offer they can’t refuse and decide it is time for America to go home, in which case the air bridge to Bagram starts at Ramstein, until the Germans get an offer they can’t refuse.

Relying upon a Line of Communications through Iran is like putting our head in a noose and trusting the hangman not to hang us. There are operators so emotionally invested in nation building in Afghanistan that they will attempt to persuade, change and influence others to accept that risk, and there are elements at the very highest levels of the chain of command who will buy it, seeing in crisis the opportunity for “Peace In Our Time” with Iran. There are others at the very highest levels of the chain of command who will welcome a debacle along the lines of the Fall of the Philippines as a well deserved humbling of the global hegemon which restores “fairness” to the New World Order.

We forgot what we came to Afghanistan to do, and mission creep put more on our plate than could be logistically supported 600 miles from the sea on the other side of the world.

Mar 15, 2009 - 10:08 am 41. JMH:

One cruel wag said Obama loves the future because that’s where all his accomplishments are. He runs the danger of being the Coming Man who never came.

Waiting for Godot. Me,I’m just waiting for him “to go.”

I hope he can belay it, but I don’t expect it.

He’s literally too much of a lightweight. When the pull comes on the rope, his feet will be yanked off the ground. Assuming he actually tied the rope on in the first place.

We are soon going to learn that the famous Biden “foreign policy test” of Obama is going to be a bit more a than a ship of Chinese sailors cruising close by to moon our navy.

Hmmm, I wonder if Gaff-O-Matic Joe had Pakistan in mind? Or was it Russian bombers in Venezuela? Or Iran’s nuke program RTMing? Or are there other shoes left to drop? We’re living underneath a millipede.

This is the essence of liberal thought: that there are ALWAYS sufficient resources to do EVERYTHING you want to do.

And they’re right about that, because for them, talking about a solution and signing agreements and making proposals is everything. And there’s always enough resources to talk and scribble. It’s cheap to feel good about yourself if self image is all that matters. But as I write that line, I wonder why it’s always so damn expensive for the rest of us to make liberals feel good about themselves.

But hey, at least we got rid of that unseemly Musharraf. He never looked as stylish in his uniform as Che and Fidel looked in theirs. Aren’t we happy?

Mar 15, 2009 - 10:14 am 42. Cannoneer No. 4:

OEF has been living on borrowed time since we got kicked out of K2.

Mar 15, 2009 - 10:17 am 43. James:

WillDoMathForFood: I’m a mathematician (BS) and physicist (PhD). So I’m writing an introduction to theology for my kids… Does that count?

Mar 15, 2009 - 10:17 am 44. NahnCee:

How do we know Musharref isn’t behind the current chaos engulfing Pakistan? He was always a terrorist sympathizer, so maybe he’s actively working with the Taliban now to confound his enemies in Pakistan’s military.

Mar 15, 2009 - 10:22 am 45. Meryl:

I am just positive that obama said that he would talk to all the bad guys and that everything would then be much better.

Huh. Must have misunderstood him.

He only sleeps at night because he neither understands nor cares what he and his idiot team are doing to this country.

Wouldn’t it be interesting to try to have an “obama voter reunion” and see how many people showed up?

Mar 15, 2009 - 10:57 am 46. RAH:

Rome built roads to facilitate the movement of troops. They also built outposts and cities to a plan; they were doing this so long they had standards and engineering teams. The ability to move troops fast also facilitated trade. Trade and commerce increases farmer’s productivity because they can get their products to market. Opium is a major trade good because in that form it does not go bad and can be stored and is easily transportable by donkeys. Wheat and other agricultural products require good transportation. America used rivers as transportation corridors and cities grew up there for trade Afghanistan does not have good rivers for transit and needs good roads instead.

The Taliban have several advantages over allied troops. The major advantage is that they move into an area or village and stay. After intimidating the local power structure with killings they institute a simple law “Sharia” and judges to maintain control and use bullyboys for enforcement.

Since allied forces do not stay and colonize the villages there is no incentive for the villagers to help the allies, since they will be gone and the villagers have to live under the next wave of Taliban. The only way to solve that problem is to set up warlords and troops to support the warlords allied to us and that are a competition to the Taliban. These warlords will be the feudal equivalent to barons and would constitute continuity and be traditional. An overlord or a king could be agreed upon for the nation. But the real power structure is the barons who defend the villagers and associated farms and institute trade.

So create roads from cities and villages and get trade routes and institute local warlords to become barons and feudal lords. The barons will be responsible for security of the towns and the roads.

Afghanistan is too fragmented and primitive and needs to go through these types of steps to get stabilization and security, Trade will modernize the country, but security stabilization is needed.

Allied forces can be used to fight and destroy Taliban troops in the passes and to get them out of the major towns and valleys. The spring offensive needs to be bloody to drop the Taliban troops levels. Special Forces need to be used to destroy the Taliban who have set up in local provinces.

I disagree with Yon about the need for SF to train Afghan army. The central model of power does not work in Afghanistan. It was not until that the US discovered the tribal power structure in Iraq and integrated with it did the US get the success it needed. This was a decentralized approach and provided the security stabilization. They used the tribal chiefs as warlords and recruited them. Each tribal chief got the added prosperity of more town trade. As the next town sheik saw the success of his neighbor, he signed on and the surge only helped that effort. The deal was the US had to support each sheik that signed on and not leave to go somewhere else. That is why added troops were needed.

So the better strategy is identify the provinces and the towns associated with the province. Get a local sheik or elder to be each town’s warlord and his troops to secure the town and farms. Get roads built from the major towns to each other so they can mutually support each other. Make deals or set up the barons of the provinces.

Use the US troops and air power to destroy the new spring offensive coming out of the passes of Pakistan.

Once the competitive local and province structure is set up with US allied barons, then increase NGO efforts to improve farming, sewage and water wells and irrigation.

The central government does not even control the capital so it is foolish to work only through the capital and train national troops. We need the Afghan troops where they live in the towns and they need to defend their town and roads from Taliban. A national army will not work without the infrastructure and powerful capital; both are lacking and will continue to lack for decades.

Mar 15, 2009 - 11:00 am 47. Mike Blackadder:

“The world is still dangerous; perhaps even more so today than when George W. Bushchimp left office to the delight of so many on the Left. But contrary to expectation, America’s enemies did not stop their depradations upon the ascension of The One.”

Yes, George W was ridiculed for his ’stay the course’ message; his unwillingness to waver from the position he arrived at following the 911 attacks. Say what you want, but his message and stubbornness brought no comfort to America’s enemies. I think that today you will see a Taliban and Al Qaeda invigorated by the prospect of victory, and we will continue to see more evidence of governments who will ride the fence with regard to terrorist organizations because they will not be able to predict what Obama is going to do. They’ll have to read the NYT every morning and figure out if today is a good day to fight or negotiate with the terrorists.

Mar 15, 2009 - 11:02 am 48. WillDoMathForFood:

James @ 43: Yep, sounds like you straight to k+1 in the sequence! Do I have to worship you now?

Mar 15, 2009 - 11:06 am 49. WillDoMathForFood:

It looks like RAH is implying an integration of Michael’s road hypothesis and Morry’s legalization of heroin. I agree with both of them. The roads are a great idea; the drugs, not so obvious, but still brilliant. This is a tangent, and off topic, but I have to say why, anyway. I’ve thought for a long time that the “War on Drugs” was following the same paradigm as Prohibition, and was working just as badly. While I don’t advocate drug abuse, it seems to me that legalizing drugs will have more benefits than penalites: it will not only help us deal with the Afghanis, but as Morry also adds, stabilize Mexico. And the rest of Latin America, too. And while we’re at it, America’s inner cities, where the most lucrative career path for any poor kid is to join the drug trade (why get an education where you can make money in 4, 8, or 12 years, when you can make big money right now?). And it will emasculate the gangs and drug lords, who will no longer have the income stream to buy heavy artillery. And it will instantly put corrupt cops back on the side of law and order again. And it will open up a huge underground economy to legitimacy, exposing it to taxation, and bring a bunch of laundered money legally back into the country. On the downside, you’re legitimizing a cruel waste of life, but will more people die while drugs are legal than are dying now while they’re illegal? I’d suggest not. The one thing I can’t really get my mind around is how such a policy squares with the idea that physicians alone monopolize the distrubution of really dangerous drugs through prescription, but we don’t require physician permission for alcohol, so it seems we could do it for select drugs, too…

Sorry, rant over. Now back to our regularly scheduled program.

Mar 15, 2009 - 11:26 am 50. Michael Hoskins:

Hungry Number Cruncher @49.
I am not sure about full legalization. Here is my not yet written SciFi scenario.

Select several islands/ create enclaves with the following rules.
1. No law inside. You’re on your own.
2. If running from the law, and you are able to reach the entrance portal, you pursuit is ended. At that point you may…
a. Wait 24 hours and return to the outside. Police can and will be waiting
b. “Enter the enclave”. You must prove your age (over 18) and prove/ have surgery on the spot, that you are neutered or speyed.

3. Once inside, no pursuit. No protection. No Gov. No taxes, nothing except as imposed by the insiders.
4. Exiting is simply getting to an exit portal, spending two weeks in cold turkey detox plus a 24 hour head start from the law. Exit portals offer protection from insiders. Kind of a safe base. Or horizontally in a body bag, provided free by outsiders.

5. Enclave has some limited number of “vendor” portals where items from outside (drugs, food, clothing…no weapons, they must all be locally produced) can be bought through the wall.
6. Water, sewer, roads, power, all must be purchased by the enclave.
7. Money can enter from outside.

8. Guards keep exterior order only, by forcing all activity through approved portals, and prevent violations #2 and @4.
9. Guards rotated every 90 days and only pull one tour. Guards are select from armed forces and police departments by random number generator.

Now you know why I am still an engineer who went the MBA route.

Mar 15, 2009 - 11:55 am 51. heathermc:

Noemie Emery has a great article at the Western Standard, explaining that The One’s core support was NOT the “Left” but rather, the kind of person who LOVES “Vanity Fair.”
So. Now.
Japan has decided that IT is going to deal with North Korea. No more expecting the USA to do something, because it too has read Vanity Fair Magazine.
Chavez and co. are dealing directly with Russia, and who cares about that old fashioned “Monroe Doctrine”, now that the Fashionistas are in charge?
And then The One is going to find that Osama guy and just talk and agree! And Pakistan disintegrates, but oh well, the Pakistan sense of style is so last year. And we can depend on India to sort that little problem out.

China, of course, is dealing with the Somali Pirates and in control of the Sudan oil fields and (not incidently), the african slave trade.

There is a lot going on here. But think. Pelosi, Reid and Obama. The thing is, is this a ‘tipping point’ in history?

Mar 15, 2009 - 12:20 pm 52. WillDoMathForFood:

Michael @ 50: I think there is already such an enclave, and it’s called Afghanistan. (Minus the spay/neutering, which, of course, is a key codicil in your rule set.) Which brings us full circle back to the original blog subject! Brilliant!

Mar 15, 2009 - 12:21 pm 53. dan:

As far as I can tell this most recent round of Pakistan’s collapse was initiated yet again by lawyers demonstrating against Zardari for failing to free the Supreme Court Chief Justice whose incarceration supposedly certified Musharaff’s despotism and exposed him to a toppling attack not only from the domestic liberals but the international Left & Co. How absurd, how Pakistani, that this same non-crisis should precipitate this latest, possibly nation-destroying event, which is still in its earliest stages. All this demosntrates the wisdom of imperialism: crush the natives, who in any case would be much happier under peace-through-fear, and install puppets, who in any case would govern more effectively for all involved if simply deprived of their traditional idiocies and given, for example, a manual entitled “This is How a Bank Works.” As Naipaul pointed out in his two Islamic sojourns, the Problem is Islam – specifically Islam’s delusion that it is anything but a parasitic totalitarianism – probably the first – which cannot survive above barbarian subsistence without a genuine civilization to sate itself on.

The question is whether the kaleidescope of crises will force regional or even global war. It is clear that extricating our troops from Afghanistan – either by a treaty settling them hors de combat around the cities or removing them completely beyond the horizon – will not bring peace, it will bring an Islamist Pakistan, a less stable India, a Grand Islamist Victory, and a gigantic black hole – Afghanistan – from which to arm, train, and launch into Europe (especially UK) and the USA.

But it seems as if the only answer is to involve India with massive troops, for the purpose of destroying the Pakistani government, and a much larger American force capable of effective offense against the tribals in FATA. But this is a logistics nightmare. India’s involvement against China’s ally, India’s successful absorption of significant territory, India’s deployment away from its northwest, along which China has been launching unreported irritation/test sorties since the early 2000’s – all indicate India (which has a nuclear alliance with USA similar to Russia’s with Iran) is not at all the Asiatic bulwark of Anglospheric modernism that we hope it might be.

I dunno. If the reports we get are correct, it is difficult to see a solution, especially under the Celebrity in Chief.

Mar 15, 2009 - 12:29 pm 54. RAH:

Actually I was not advocating legalization of drugs, just noting that opium is the form easily used as a cash crop like whiskey was for corn in the Whiskey Rebellion. The fact is that whiskey or corn mash easily transformed an agricultural product that has the ability to withstand the rigors of transport when good roads or rivers routes were not existent.

This just is an objective analysis on a cash crop that brings in currency for farmers that other crops cannot produce, due to poor transits routes. The way to limit the incentives for that cash crop is to have another that will substitute and bring in cash.

The argument about drug legalization is another topic all together. Generally when a product is legalized it becomes cheaper, but use may go up or down and have other deleterious effects on society.

I note that the British used opium as a military and economic tactic to gain power in China. So the use of opium as a weapon to demolish the effectiveness of a society to resist your aims is well documented. It is perfectly rational for farmers to produce poppies and sell the opium to the Taliban and the Taliban to use that cash to buy guns and arms. Depriving farmers of the ability to provide for their families is a poor idea. Destroying crops is a bad idea, period. You must substitute a better crop. There is wheat blight in Iran and Afghan wheat so far has not succumbed, this increases the market for Afghan wheat, if it can get to market.

The real problem is a hard line assessment on whether the effort to turn Afghanistan into a productive ally and asset is worth it. Due to the logistics issue, the US had destroyed the Taliban on the cheap using Special Forces and Rumsfeld plan. Nation building was given little attention and fobbed off to then Europeans and NATO since they always argue that is better. So European NGO’s were given the task.

NATO forces were screwing up the campaign and allowing Taliban resurgence in Afghanistan so an increase US presence was required. Bush was doing that, but I don’t think he was thinking of a good long-term solution to Afghanistan.

Obama picked Afghanistan as a contrast to Iraq, which had a good strategic reason to making that a viable ally of the US. The location of Iraq in the center allows US increase influence of the Middle East and on the border of two enemies, Syria and Iran.

Regrettably, Iraq took longer than anticipated and subsequent ideas to go after Iran were shelved and too difficult.

So Bush settled for Iraq, but I believe he had greater ambitions to settle the area. But he failed to consider all the difficulties. As the old saying, no Battle plan survives the Enemy.

If we took out Pakistan and reformed that country, a major undertaking, then the Taliban problem in Afghanistan would be go away. Tempting, but probably a major overreach, even with the fact that Pakistan has been is supposedly an US ally. Bad form to attack your friends.

I hope that the DOD is thinking about strategies about Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal in case the Taliban controls Pakistan. I believe that Taliban’s Baitullah Mehsud will conquer Pakistan if he lives long enough.

India may be an idea, but China is a problem. China is looking hostile upon India and working with Pakistan. We are not ready to go to war with China.

Never the less, I would support on tactical attack on Pakistan nuclear missiles even with the risk of annoying China.

Mar 15, 2009 - 12:30 pm 55. bob:

Legalize heroin? We’d be better off shooting the users. That would stop it, with less suffering in the long run.

Mar 15, 2009 - 12:32 pm 56. RAH:

China has been pushing India’s border and may be behind the Muslim attacks in India. China is the US major competitor, not Russian and not the annoying Taliban and AQ. There really are small fry compared to China’s possible aggression. But China is right now going for the long view that we will weaken ourselves and they can gain control of the Pacific without going to war.

China is very rational and pragmatic. They test all new administrations. They snatched an EP3 intelligence asset during early GW term and we had to grovel to get it back. . China recently tried the same by shadowing an unarmed sonar towing array intelligence ship on the East China Sea. Very similar when they had their F 8 shadow too close and crashed with our EP3 that had to land in China on April 2001.

China was quiet and supportive after 9-11 after it saw the massive anger and the 3-week campaign to get to Baghdad gave them pause. They have been learning that they do not want to compete against our tech savvy military

It is easier to let us weaken ourselves and Obama is validation of that idea. The ironic issue is that our dollar by inflation or devaluation from the massive economic spending of Obama will really hurt the Chinese.

The one thing the Chinese counted on was the US staying a capitalistic bulwark and economic powerhouse.

Mar 15, 2009 - 12:52 pm 57. Bent Notes » Blog Archive » TCM better muster up some interest in foreign policy - today’s edition:

[...] Pakistan’s implosion continues apace. [...]

Mar 15, 2009 - 1:07 pm 58. Blogs For Victory » Blog Archive » Crumbling Pakistan:

[...] our military commanders say that the situation in Afghanistan will get worse before it gets better, here’s why: The Asia Times highlights the greatest proximate danger from fast-breaking developments in [...]

Mar 15, 2009 - 1:16 pm 59. Robohobo:

Grading system for intelligence:

Bash Bush = -10

“…than when George W. Bushchimp left office to the delight of so many on the Left.”

C’mon, he wasn’t perfect, no one is, but I bet there are many wishing he was still in the WH or someone like him.

About Russia: Don’t you think they are privately laughing with glee? I do. They remember what the US helped do to them in Afghanistan be very sure. They will do whatever they can to make sure that we lose there. If there are nukes that fall to the Taliban then they will make sure the wrath of the same is directed to ‘The Great Satan’ not themselves.

JMF @ 41: “We’re living underneath a millipede.” And the shoes are dropping. Biden was right but not for the reasons he thought. We are going to find out the new ‘Emperor’ has either no clothes or, in a continuum of choices, is one of the enemy. Nothing speaks well of the possible outcomes. We have worse and worser and worst.

Nahncee said:

“…all they can do with them is nuke Russia or China by camel…”

Here, go read this scenario. One of my favorites on how do they do it and still have plausible deniability?
http://www.therant.us/staff/kraft/10242006.htm

“The terrible ifs accumulate.”

Mar 15, 2009 - 1:35 pm 60. Marie Claude:

RAH, I get 100% of your analyse

Mar 15, 2009 - 1:55 pm 61. wretchard:

I think the Pakistan/Afghanistan theater is winnable, but it will require the correct strategy, which should drive everything else. Now what is that strategy for the theater? What is the final configuration we are seeking? Might it not be a Pakistan in a stable state, either unified or broken down into inert constituent parts as the people there so desire? Might it not be a region where there are agreements to keep the lid on the rise of a non-state? Might it be a series of arrangements whereby enough military force and/or special forces training can be applied to deny not just Afghanistan, but all the wilds in the area to a super-terrorist group, which will be in nobody’s interests?

The Bush strategy in the region is dead. I don’t think the Obama strategy has emerged yet, or perhaps its already been enunciated; and if it takes the apparent form of getting Osama Bin Laden, then I don’t think it will succeed, not from across the Afghan border and even if successful, it would be strategically pointless.

But events are afoot; and they may be unfolding faster than Washington can cogitate.

Mar 15, 2009 - 2:03 pm 62. NahnCee:

Robohobo – your link posits capabilities that neither North Korea nor Pakistan have *ever* demonstrated they could even attempt to aspire to. I think you’re blowing scary smoke and going “oooga nuclear booga” trying to scare the natives.

Mar 15, 2009 - 2:12 pm 63. RAH:

Anything is winnable if you put your will and assets into play. The question is how much is it worth it? Do you have the will? Obama does not. It is the Obama Amateur hour.

So after this spring, summer wind it down and get out. Logistics won’t support anything else unless Obama really desires it. If you believe that I have some property for sale.
There are bigger challenges ahead with a compromised economy. Lets not waste too much effort in Afghanistan. Pakistan will not go away and that is the real problem.

Mar 15, 2009 - 2:18 pm 64. Robohobo:

Nahncee @ 62: Really? Have you not heard of the short and medium range missiles fielded by the NorKs or Iran? Either could do the job. I can rig a GPS and a PC to do the guidance. (I am an electron pusher.) Iran has UAV’s. I used to work on cruise missiles way back when. The warhead is not much bigger than a medium sized suitcase.
You do NOT know what you are talking about. The scenario can and could be played out very easily.

Mar 15, 2009 - 2:21 pm 65. sirius_sir:

If the Obama strategy takes the form of getting bin Laden, won’t some people be surprised should he turn out to be in Iran?

Mar 15, 2009 - 2:33 pm 66. wretchard:

Pakistan will not go away and that is the real problem.

Yes. Without a troubled Pakistan or other outside troublemakers, there’s may be an upper limit on the mischief that can be spawned inside Afghanistan, as long as it is kept under surveillance and occasionally spoiled. Maybe it was reasonable to hope, in 2002, that Pakistan could evolve into something stable. Maybe it still can; but there are increasing signs of instability that are beyond immediate Western control. Pakistani instability will soon become a major British internal security problem as it drives expatriate jihadism in Old Blighty. By extension, it will menace the US through the visa-free program.

Now the requirement to keep Afghanistan supplied will induce Washington to pay off Pakistani factions, money which will at least partially be used against the West. What are the direct levers in the area are Russia, China, Iran and Pakistan. The indirect levers are India and Iraq, as they act upon Pakistan and Iran respectively. Saudi Arabia too, plays a crucial role. Thus we see the linkage between the Middle East and Southwest Asia. They are not unrelated theaters.

Mar 15, 2009 - 2:38 pm 67. Habu:

It appears that many contributors are unaware the the US controls the Pakistani nukes. This has been in effect many,many years and I have no doubt our intelligence community as they did with vital computer chips sold to the Soviets by Ron Reagan have neutered those nukes by this point in time. That part of the world,in fact all od Islam is simply a supperating boil that needs nucelar medicine from the USA to cure.

Here is but one example of many articles going back many years.

Mid East Times 3/15/09
U.S. Retains Hidden Grip on Pakistan’s Nukes

http://tinyurl.com/d7×5a7

As far as Afgan/Pak goes I am in a quandry as to why we continue to pour men and resources into that area of the world. I would just as soon nuke the tribal areas and clear out. Let the place stay “hot for a hundred years.

As the Arabs say, Insah.

Mar 15, 2009 - 3:51 pm 68. El hefe:

We had a potential victory in Iraq and in Afghanistan but don’t count on victory any more. Those days are over. The defeat will be blamed on Bush. If you are paying attention the current administration is concentrating on undoing everything the Bush administration has done probably with the exception of huge government programs which will be deemed too small. That’s Hillary in Russia with the stupid reset button. But she’s on to something.
Other countries that have relied on the good old USA to be the worlds cop now have to wake up with more than just rhetoric. It’s time to take care of your own business WORLD! We’ve got our own problems now. We can’t even put a cabinet together to run the government. Obviously we are waiting for some mystical handout from the sky. I mean a handout sheet of paper that tells us what to do next. Our amazing political establishment is only concentrating on how much they can steal and hide before they are busted and have to run for the hills. We have the perfect President to preside over the greatest meltdown in the history of the world. Who will continue to do what he has been taught by his mentor and spiritual advisor Rev. Wright, which will be to destroy all that is good because these are haters of all that is good.
How could we have been so deceived? In the future it will be obvious but now it’s not because we are confused about who we are and what we should do.
Hillary is right; we need a reset button but not to reset the Bush era policies. We need a reset button to renew our minds about who we are, what we are founded upon as a nation and why. We have lost it. Now we’ll have to fight to get it back. It’s there to be had maybe on your bookshelf or in the nearest bookstore at a severe discount. Will you reach out and grab read it and try to understand? I hope so; we will all need each other to help get it reset.

Mar 15, 2009 - 3:59 pm 69. Jim Nicholas:

WillDoMathForFood@49

I do not think you were off-topic at all in recognizing that the ‘War on Drugs’ is one of the most destabilizing forces we are dealing with, both domestically and internationally. In addition it adds to the difficulty in fighting other wars we are in.

I think making these drugs legal only with a prescription from a physician would increase the cost to the user and make a black market in the drugs and crime more lucrative. Thus, some of the benefit of legalization would be forfeited. The hope would be that in time education would gradually diminish the use as it has done with tobacco, which is more addictive even then many of the illegal drugs.

As a psychiatrist, I have seen the devastation caused by the use of a number of these illegal drugs and have long opposed legalization of them. I really do not know if legalization would increase the number of users. Each addict represents a personal tragedy. However, I have gradually come to the conclusion that the costs to society (and more recently to national security) of the war against drugs are greater than the costs of accepting defeat in that war.

Best wishes,

Jim

Mar 15, 2009 - 4:00 pm 70. heathermc:

No. 68: you are onto something, here. Think Pelosi, Reid and Obama. All beloved of Vanity Fair Magazine.

The American people have forgotten to pay attention to the LOCAL politicians; the ones they send to Washington. The result is fourth rate people, led by Pelosi, Reid and Obama.

Forget the big march to Washington, and even the Presidential elections. Getting smarter people into Congress – and keeping them honest over time – is the ONLY way to save the USA. The “Tea Party” movement is the best thing to happen in years: actual voters getting out and harassing LOCAL POLITICIANS… who are, one notes, REACTING.

Mar 15, 2009 - 4:17 pm 71. jjmurphy:

Habu #67 – I hope you are right on the Paki nukes. But, how could that be possible that the US controls their nukes? Even if we disable certain technology they still have the capability of dirty nukes if the get the radioactive material. Perhaps you can tell I am out of my depth on this matter, but I just can’t see how their nukes are not a major problem.

Mar 15, 2009 - 4:23 pm 72. Walt:

Now speaketh Waltradamus, sage, scholar, clairvoyant, renowned for his magical ability to predict everything, up to, but not including, six furlongs:

Pakis crumble dust to dust
Taliban a sudden gust
Pakis fearing O’s rebukes
Give Taliban just half their nukes

In Middle East the fear grows long
Shadows cloud the growing strong
Persians smile say Jews bye bye
But not before the 15s fly

Afghan warlords cannot read
But they are of their fathers’ seed
In their hills they sit and wait
To see who’s next to tempt the fate

Mar 15, 2009 - 4:29 pm 73. Doug:

Oh, great Waltra:
Will the Market on Monday Morn be up, or down?
—
Pakistan in a maelstrom?

From the first military take over of Pakistan by General Ayub Khan in October 1958 to the more recent coup by General Pervez Musharraf in October 1999, the khaki constituency has always been the central element of power in the national matrix.

Even when civilian leaders have been elected – their authority has been notional. The real power centre remains the Pakistan Army and its Chief who represents the multi-dimensional corporate interests of the ‘fauj’ as an institution.

The military are the guardians of the national interest, which they define and then proceed to protect – even if it means cynically exploiting religion – as General Zia-ul-Haq had skilfully demonstrated.

The current political impasse wherein Nawaz Sharif has threatened to go on a ‘long march’ culminating in Islamabad on March 16 is a challenge to the legitimacy of the Zardari regime.

Mar 15, 2009 - 4:47 pm 74. Walt:

Doug:

On market day this Monday morn
The boontling sheep are quiet shorn

Mar 15, 2009 - 4:55 pm 75. Doug:

We are the Whirled,
We are the Sheeple!

—
petraeus-iraq-style-surge-wouldnt-work-afghanistan

Mar 15, 2009 - 5:00 pm 76. programmer:

Now for something entirely different:

I posted a video link some time ago showing some neat stuff being done with extending human interaction with interfacing humans with the cloud. Here is a more detailed (and longer) demonstration of this technology called, rightly enough, The Sixth Sense

For you of a more military mind set, instead of the consumer examples being demonstrated, imagine the control available to a Forward Observer or a point man in an infantry squad. Talk about magic. And pay attention to the cost of the equipment being demonstrated. About $350.00.

Mar 15, 2009 - 5:21 pm 77. Doug:

If we are celebrating the election of the first black president, why should we not be celebrating the first mentally handicapped person who is the Speaker of the House?

Mar 15, 2009 - 5:31 pm 78. Lifeofthemind:

OT, R.I.P. Ron Silver

Mar 15, 2009 - 5:41 pm 79. Jim Baker:

I am just hoping Obama doesn’t go ballistic from the stress of lacking the self discipline to actually do any work, when it is clear that work needs to be done. This seems to be an all too common trait among Americans these days. What an incompetent executive.

Mar 15, 2009 - 6:00 pm 80. NahnCee:

“As far as Afgan/Pak goes I am in a quandry as to why we continue to pour men and resources into that area of the world. I would just as soon nuke the tribal areas and clear out. Let the place stay “hot for a hundred years.”

Agree. As wannabe-human beings they’re simply not cutting it, and I do not want to reward their savage barbarity any more by rebuilding their dirt-rock countries into something resembling Springfield, USA, complete with hot and cold running water, on-call health care to fix acid-melted faces, and air conditioners powered by USA provided electricity.

If they refuse to play nice with the other kids, then spank them with a nuke and walk away.

Mar 15, 2009 - 6:03 pm 81. jjmurphy:

“Agree. As wannabe-human beings they’re simply not cutting it”

Excellent! One of the best lines I’ve heard in a long time.

Mar 15, 2009 - 6:08 pm 82. Habu:

jjmurphy,
Muuch like Will Rogers I only know what I read. The Middle Eastern Times articel I cited lays it out.

We took over by agreement.

As far as launching a nuke I would think that would be impossible even if we were kicked out of the country since we’ve f’ed up the guidance systems etc.

As far as Paki’s selling nuclear material for a dirty bomb, I haven’t got any idea how we rope in that steer. So far so good.

Reality being what it is a nuclear exchange or a dirty bomb in the next decade will not be considered an exogenous event by those in power. It’s almost a given.

Jews vs. Persians
US hitting the tribal areas in AfPAK
China vs Taiwan

Let me count the ways. It’s such a volitile tribal world that the best advice I can give is just don’t look directly into the mushroom cloud.

Remember, Only the dead have seen the end of war. Socrates.

Mar 15, 2009 - 6:21 pm 83. Habu:

Excuse the spelling. Por favor.

Mar 15, 2009 - 6:23 pm 84. ledger:

I notice all of the above problems happen when Obama “magically” became the President.

The problem with aging hippies working in the shadows to put an anti-military and anti-business weakling in Oval Office is that world leaders do not respect him.

Next, world leaders realize that Obama is a financial blithering idiot and don’t see any benefit coming from him. Nor, do they see any military leadership coming from him. They then tear down what World Order has been built in the last eight years. Anarchy fills the breach.

The problem IS Barack Obama and his cronies. Nothing but disaster will come until he leaves Office.

Mar 15, 2009 - 6:33 pm 85. bob:

The Places In Between

Good book by Rory Stewart, who walked across Afghanistan. Gives a good feel of what’s up, which isn’t much, I tell you. Some of the women out in the country have never been to the next village four miles down the road in their entire lives. Just kept in the back of the hovel there, to be brought out when wanted.

The King of Afghanistan told President Kennedy, the only good thing in Afghanistan is the shooting, meaning the bird hunting.

Mar 15, 2009 - 7:09 pm 86. Skookumchuk:

As I understand it, the US-Pakistan agreement is that the US will attempt to control Pakistan’s nukes if civil disorder threatens to take them out of Pakistani government hands. But what if Pakistan’s government ceases to exist?

Mar 15, 2009 - 7:10 pm 87. jjmurphy:

Habu,

Thanks for the explanation. Any way you look at it, we’re kinda screwed.

Mar 15, 2009 - 7:19 pm 88. Wadeusaf:

Zardari has given in to the extremes and reinstated the Supreme court Judge. This is not at all like our SCOTUS, but rather is an additional layer to which and by which sharia can be implemented and regulated in the various provinces of Pakistan.

If so the military must choose, will it back President Zadari or will it back the Taliban. If it backs the president, there can be a slow cooking of the stew they are all in until civil war breaks out. If they support the Taliban, President Zadari is done sooner, and so is Pakistan. Either way we will be at war trying to extract our folks from Afghanistan, the only question is will it be with Pakistan and by treaty possibly China, or will it be with the Taliban and with Zadari’s blessing. If more of the legal beagles can be won over, it will be the latter, but I fear the democratic method Pakistan has chosen will lead to a quick death of this latest civilian administration.

Wow, having pushed for the resignation of Mushariff, having allowed the assassination of Bhutto with no repercussions, the Pakistani’s are reaping the whirlwind. Having supported them the Democrats ought now to reap what they have sown as well. I am not certain if that will be the final result, however.

Mar 15, 2009 - 7:33 pm 89. wildiris:

Legalization of drugs only makes sense if the government gets out of the drug-rehabilitation business. That’s the piece of the public-policy puzzle the Libertarian Party always leaves out of its one-note song. I am quite happy to let others do whatever to their bodies. But the understanding has to be, that if that’s what someone wants to do, then society has no obligation, either legal or moral, to fix up what’s left of his or her broken life.

Mar 15, 2009 - 8:10 pm 90. john from cinncinatti:

mike @50,i already thought of that scenario, the enclave thingie was Australia. empty the jails of all the psychos/lifers and ship them to Afghanistan, give them some supplies a contact person and let them compete with the Afghanies for resources. keep them from disappearing like jamestown and let the mayhem begin. second wave are the women. saw the movie already maybe the book is better.

Mar 15, 2009 - 8:26 pm 91. SpeakEasy:

Too bad we are stuck with this group of touchy, feelgood “leaders” for a few more years. The obvious move to me is a feint at Afghanistan and a hard body-blow to Pakistan. Isolate and devastate. Consider the following points and do the mathematical computations:
1)Pakistan has nuclear weapons but little stable governmental control.
2)Pakistan is accessible from the sea.
3)India would welcome a stable Pakistan and therefore assist along that long border.
4)Without Pakistan the Taliban in Afghanistan would lose a lot of logistical support.
5)Surrounded, the Afghan warlords would not start reading their tea leaves a bit differently and align themselves with the strongest faction, the US.

This is chess, not checkers. Too bad war is sometimes waged by politicians.

Mar 15, 2009 - 8:36 pm 92. Lifeofthemind:

@Michael Hoskins and john from cinncinatti,
Didn’t Robert Heinlein get there first or was it another sci-fi author?

Mar 15, 2009 - 8:39 pm 93. Habu:

Skook,
Good question. My GUESS is that the missiles will not now operate anyway. If our Delta/Intel/Seals/Jack Bauer/The Unit guys and gals haven’t already messed up the guidance systems then I’m gonna quite watching their shows. That or we’ve integrated self destruct mechanisms in the missiles.
Most likely our biggest problem is any enriched uranium sitting around waiting to be sold by General XY-Zia-al-Quant to some third world country that will attempt to dirty bomb LA,DC,NY or, well you get the picture.
Personally, I agree with the best security minds today, that there is no way we can forever avoid a nuclear attack via a dirty bomb…I don’t think any attack would come from Russia or China with an ICBM BOOB (bolt out of the blue, 1950’s acronym) for they now have adapted,modified capitalism (gee,just like us) and see the advantages.

I think the Islams with their ideology of martydom are a real threat though and consequently think we need to send a message by doing the aforementioned nuking of the NW tribal areas and maybe Iran too.
I mean Isreal is gonna get it done but to get it done might be forced to use tac-nukes to bury the Persians deep enough. Somebodies gett’n nuked and I don’t want it in our country.

Of course they could always use biological or chemical too, but the Islamists are not too stable a culture and harbor a great deal of penis envy…being great a thousand years ago and uncovering the zero concept only takes a culture so far. If they didn’t have fossil fuels they’s all be playing with dung beetles all day.
As it is they’re a mortal danger to us Infidels.

Mar 15, 2009 - 8:41 pm 94. Walt:

Habu

Arabs did not uncover the zero concept. Our entire system of notational arithmetic, including the zero and the actual numbers we now use (though modified over time) were in use by the Hindus of northern India when the Arab conquest arrived and took the stuff back to Baghdad. The entire Caliphate was built on the backs of other (conquered) peoples’ knowledge.

Mar 15, 2009 - 9:01 pm 95. Skookumchuk:

But couldn’t you substitute one inertial guidance system for another? One com link for another? What do I know, but it seems so easy – in theory, anyway.

Probably much more important for us is the likelihood of an IRBM or Silkworm with a dirty bomb or some other CBRNE warhead launched from a nondescript Third World bulk freighter off LA or Long Beach harbors. Launch the missile, self-detonate the freighter. What then?

Mar 15, 2009 - 9:02 pm 96. Robohobo:

Nahncee @ somewhere above:

“Agree. As wannabe-human beings they’re simply not cutting it”

No, it is not they are not human, they are, very human. With all the foibles and weaknesses that entails. It is more like Bob @ 85 or so:

“…Some of the women out in the country have never been to the next village four miles down the road in their entire lives.”

Nahncee, you expose your lack of knowledge of the rest of the world and betray that your view is provincial – your province is all you know. There are some places in the world that would mess up your mind very badly. Afghanistan is one of those places that time, mostly, forgot. BTW, being provincial doe not mean backward, it implies limited.

Pakistan is a worry because they have nukes. It may be that we will have control of the warheads if things go sideways. I hope that is true BUT things could go so badly wrong we would lose them. And yes, triggers or guidance or arming could be cobbled together. They are fairly simple machines. The trick is making them safe – 99.99999% safe is no mean trick. But if you do not care, then no so much. Also, getting them delivered is not that hard. A dirty bomb could be more destructive than a functioning nuke to support systems. Hell, you can shut down the capital of any state for a few days with a letter with talcum powder in it. Happened here.

With 0bummer and Co. so feckless, the bad actors are gathering and making plans. When the message or messages are delivered will there be any body home?

Mar 15, 2009 - 9:22 pm 97. Habu:

Walt,
Thanks for clearing that up. I knew I should never have trusted Baghdad Bob…wonder where he is now? CNN or MSNBC?

Mar 15, 2009 - 9:39 pm 98. Habu:

Skook & Robo,
Agree with all you say. It’s just damn scary to think that one day it WILL probably happen…ugh …Hmmm maybe the wife will let me have that little roadster I’ve been craving..hmm…top down, WWI leather fight helmet and goggles. Heck at 62 why wait?

Mar 15, 2009 - 9:46 pm 99. Michael Lonie:

Pakistan going Islamist is asking for genocide, even if they don’t understand that now. A friend of mine was a printer operator for an insurance company on 9/11. An Indian working for a consulting firm there commented to him that day that soon Kali would begin to move westward. PO the Indians badly enough, like a few more Mumbai style attacks, and there won’t be a Pakistan any more. And China will hardly be able to invade India across the Himalayas (logistics again). So only the threat of nukes from China would be effective. Would China go nuclear against India for the sake of some Islamocrazies?

Mar 15, 2009 - 9:48 pm 100. mark_b:

El hefe:
We need a reset button to renew our minds about who we are, what we are founded upon as a nation and why. We have lost it. Now we’ll have to fight to get it back. It’s there to be had maybe on your bookshelf or in the nearest bookstore at a severe discount. Will you reach out and grab read it and try to understand? I hope so; we will all need each other to help get it reset.

==============================================

It’s in the top drawer of the nightstand of every hotel you’ve ever slept in.

Mar 15, 2009 - 9:51 pm 101. ledger:

I hope Hubu @67 is right but I have my doubts. I don’t see any specific modern documentation that the USA has actual control over the 30-55 weapons.

If a terrorists group were to steal 20 kg of Highly Enriched Uranium it would be feasible to build a gun style type of weapon (maybe enlisting China to help). The device probably would not be small enough to deliver by missile but could be delivered by other means. That’s an unpleasant thought.

“Pakistani authorities claim that their nuclear weapons are not assembled. They maintain that the fissile cores are stored separately from the non-nuclear explosives packages, and that the warheads are stored separately from the delivery systems. In a 2001 report, the Defense Department contends that “Islamabad’s nuclear weapons are probably stored in component form” and that “Pakistan probably could assemble the weapons fairly quickly.” However, no one has been able to ascertain the validity of Pakistan’s assurances about their nuclear weapons security.”

“Pakistan’s reliance primarily on HEU makes its fissile materials particularly vulnerable to diversion. HEU can be used in a relatively simple gun-barrel-type design, which could be within the means of non-state actors that intend to assemble a crude nuclear weapon…”

‘Pakistan’s Nuclear Doctrine’

“Several sources, such as Jane’s Intelligence Review and Defense Department reports maintain that Pakistan’s motive for pursuing a nuclear weapons program is to counter the threat posed by its principal rival, India, which has superior conventional forces and nuclear weapons.”

“Pakistan has not signed the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) or the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT).
According to the Defense Department report cited above, “Pakistan remains steadfast in its refusal to sign the NPT, stating that it would do so only after India joined the Treaty. Consequently, not all of Pakistan’s nuclear facilities are under IAEA safeguards. Pakistani officials have stated that signature of the CTBT is in Pakistan’s best interest, but that Pakistan will do so only after developing a domestic consensus on the issue, and have disavowed any connection with India’s decision.”

“Pakistan does not abide by a no-first-use doctrine, as evidenced by President Pervez Musharraf’s statements in May, 2002. Musharraf said that Pakistan did not want a conflict with India but that if it came to war between the nuclear-armed rivals, he would “respond with full might.” These statements were interpreted to mean that if pressed by an overwhelming conventional attack from India, which has superior conventional forces, Pakistan might use its nuclear weapons.”

See: FAS Org
http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/pakistan/nuke/

Mar 15, 2009 - 9:54 pm 102. blert:

But nuking India would infuriate both Russia and America…

And I mean way beyond diplomatic protests….

Mar 15, 2009 - 9:54 pm 103. Walt:

Agree with Michael Lonie that Pakistan is asking for genocide if the Islamists continue to provoke India. I believe we make a mistake in thinking that just because all our call centers are in India that they’re just like us. A few years ago my niece said her neighbor, in suburban DC, an Indian national PhD working for the US government, insisted that the United States in 1972 nuked an Indian city, killing 800,000 people, and it was hushed up. She said he was deadly serious, and asked if I had heard anything about it. The point is not that some people will believe anything, but that a PhD scientist would believe it. I once worked with an architect, a native of India from a wealthy family, a university graduate, who absolutely believed in witchcraft, in that he himself had had a spell placed upon him by a family enemy and nearly died before it could be removed. Is Kali ready to move west as Michael says? When Kali says go, they will go.

Mar 15, 2009 - 10:05 pm 104. Habu:

Good info Ledger.

To add to our knowledge with a bit more up to dat info htr Congressional Research Service updated June 20, 2008 on page 5 drill a bit deeper on the security aspects of Pak’s Nukes care and feeding.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/10895153/CRS-Pakistan-Nukes

Along with the Non Polif Treaty and the CBTB Pakistan also refused to sign the RATPUO, or Really and Truely Piss US OFF treaty….we need to watch them very caefully.

Mar 15, 2009 - 10:11 pm 105. Habu:

Walt,

How do you “hush up” a nuke killing 800,000?

Now I will admit that Union Carbide didn’t do Bhopal India any favors but I’m just a down right skeptic on a “hush up” of a nuke killing 800,000.

Mar 15, 2009 - 10:21 pm 106. Alexis:

Habu (67):

I’m not so sure I should really know about this. Besides, this doesn’t actually make me feel less nervous about the situation. Why? From a terrorist perspective, this becomes a twofer. A dash to acquire the weapons would not only net the weapons themselves but also a few American scalps.

To a terrorist, actual possession of one of those things is worth quite a lot, if nothing else as a means to reverse engineer the thing. This story, if true, does not reassure me.

Mar 15, 2009 - 10:30 pm 107. Walt:

Habu

Exactly. I told my niece it never happened. Yet an Indian PhD scientist believed it and according to my niece was adamant that it had happened, and that both the Indian and US governments had succeeded in hushing it up. And if he believed it, how many villagers believed it? How many people in India still believe it? It’s possible he was just tweaking my niece, who is of a tweakable nature, but maybe not. We don’t know the mindset of people of an entirely different culture, no matter how westernized, and they may think entirely differently about nuking a neighbor.

Mar 15, 2009 - 10:40 pm 108. Bernard Makizoi:

The political situation in Pakistan has been diffused by the government there because it choose to restore the Chief Justice .
I think the US need to increase and invest more in Pakistan.
It is a state that must be toughened up because it is key to destroying fundamentalism and terrorism and stabilizing Afghanistan and Iran .

Mar 15, 2009 - 10:40 pm 109. Alexis:

Given the mindset advocated in The Quranic Concept of War, it is unlikely that Pakistan would give the United States anything more than an illusion of control over its nuclear weapons. However, I could very easily imagine that Pakistanis would try to learn as much as they can from Americans by giving Americans the impression that they are cooperating.

The United States has enemies who are highly adept at the art of confidence. Let’s not forget that.

Mar 15, 2009 - 10:44 pm 110. Jonathan:

I’m rather sure that closing quote is from Bismarck, not Churchill.
Churchill may have said it, but he would have known that he was quoting
Bismarck. The quote is not original to Churchill. It is original to Bismarck.

Mar 15, 2009 - 11:03 pm 111. mark_b:

101. ledger:
…

“Pakistan’s reliance primarily on HEU makes its fissile materials particularly vulnerable to diversion. HEU can be used in a relatively simple gun-barrel-type design, which could be within the means of non-state actors that intend to assemble a crude nuclear weapon…”

=========================

All those years working at the nuke plant making sure that pretty blue metal stayed under ten feet of water, and then to die by a “crude nuclear weapon”. That would be akin to death by getting bit by a bug.

Let’s hope Osama has heard of the “Three Conjectures”. It may be our only hope.

Mar 15, 2009 - 11:11 pm 112. RAH:

If we do not have electronic or key control of Paki nukes, we have the location I am sure. We can take those out with tactical conventional or nuclear missiles. Our targeting is lightyears above anyone else and we have had 8 years of innovation and war practice on targeting systems, especially with the Missle Defense Program.

The toys that are coming out of the DOD and Darpa are amazing and the time from development to operational is also streamlined as does happen under war conditions.

The problem is never our ability it is whether we have the will to use our tech. Under Bush there was little doubt, especially with Darth Cheney telling Pakistan that not being with us was a death sentance and he was belived.

With Obama I doubt anyone is really scared of our will to use such bold actions.

Mar 15, 2009 - 11:12 pm 113. ledger:

Habu @104, you link is good. But, after reading your link to Pakistan’s Nuclear Weapons: Proliferation and Security Issues article I am less confident in Pakistan’s ability to keep these weapons out of Taliban hands. If we cannot control our supply routes than it is doubtful we control the Pakistan nuke stockpile.

“Pakistani officials state that they have already determined the arsenal size…Pakistan has reportedly addressed issues of survivability through second strike capability, possible hard ad deeply buried storage and launch facilities, road-mobile missiles, air defenses around strategic sites, and concealment measures [decoys]…

“The security of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons could also be jeopardized by another conflict between India and Pakistan, Krepon argued, explaining that an “escalating war with nuclear forces in the field would increase the probability of accidents, miscalculation, and the use of nuclear weapons.” This is because when tensions rise… the readiness level of Pakistan’s nuclear deterrent also rises. Because the geographical coordinates of Pakistan’s main nuclear weapon storage sites, missile, and air bases ca be readily identified from satellites – and therefore targeted by opposing forces – the dictates of deterrence mandate some movement of launchers and weapons from fixed locations… Nuclear weapons on the move are inherently less secure than nuclear weapons at heavily guard storage sites. Weapons ad launchers are in motion are also more susceptible to to “insider” threats and accidents…

“The issue of U.S. contingency plans to take over strategic assets was raised again in the press following Benazir Bhutto’s assassination, and was met with similar assurance by Pakistan’s government…Some press reports say that the United States provided Pakistan with Permissive Action Links (PALs) in 2003, although former Pakistani military officials has said Pakistan has developed PALs for their warheads without assistance [it assumed that the Pakistani military turned down said US assistance – ed]… Security at nuclear sites in Pakistan is the responsibility of a 10,000- member security force, commanded by a two-star general… While official and experts have expressed some assurance as to the security of nuclear weapons themselves, the security of nuclear material and know-how also pose a significant proliferation challenge…”

[To Wikipedia]

“…The actual size is hard for experts to gauge owing to the secrecy which surrounds the program in Pakistan. In recent developments, retired Brig. General Feroz Khan, previously second in command at the Strategic Arms Division of Pakistani Military told a Pakistani newspaper the nation has “about 80 to 120 genuine warheads,” and also revealed that Pakistan has decoy or dummy warheads to complicate any designs by aggressors.[13][14]

“Historically, China has played a major role in the establishment of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons development infrastructure, especially, when increasingly stringent export controls in the western countries made it difficult for Pakistan to acquire nuclear materials and technology from elsewhere. Additionally, Pakistani officials have supposedly been present to observe at least one Chinese nuclear test. In a recent revelation by a high-ranking former US official, it was disclosed that China had transferred nuclear technology to Pakistan and conducting Proxy Test for it in 1980.[15] According to a 2001 Department of Defense report, China has supplied Pakistan with nuclear materials and has provided critical technical assistance in the construction of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons development facilities, in violation of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, of which China is a signatory.[16]”

‘Role of the USA in guarding the nuclear weapons’

“From the end of 2001 the United States has provided material assistance to aid Pakistan in guarding its own nuclear weapons. This included the safeguarding of Pakistan’s nuclear material, its warheads as well as its laboratories. The cost of the program has been almost $100 million. Specifically the USA has provided helicopters, night-vision goggles and nuclear detection equipment.[17]

“Pakistan turned down the offer of PALS technology, a sophisticated “weapon release” program which initiates use via specific checks and balances as it feared the secret implanting of “dead switches”.[18]”

[The article also list about 10 different nuclear missiles, several aircraft delivery vehicles and Navy delivery vehicles]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pakistan_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction

Mar 16, 2009 - 12:34 am 114. ledger:

It is assumed that the Pakistani military readied its nuclear arsenal after the Mumbai terror attacks on India. There for it is doubtful the USA has control over Pakistan’s nuclear weapons.

“Former Indian Army chief Gen. Shankar Roychowdhury told a seminar in New Delhi that Pakistan’s nuclear weapons deterred India from attacking that country after the Mumbai strikes, according to the report.”

“He also told the seminar, entitled “Nuclear Risk Reduction and Conflict Resolve” that it was due to Pakistan’s possession of nuclear weapons that India stopped short of a military retaliation following the attack on Parliament in 2001, said the report.”

See: Ex-Indian general: Pakistan nuclear weapons prevent India from retaliatory attacks twice

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-03/09/content_10977705.htm

Mar 16, 2009 - 12:36 am 115. ledger:

If Admiral Michael Mullen is worried about Pakistan’s nuclear weapons it is unconvincing that USA controls them.

“March 13 (Bloomberg) — Admiral Michael Mullen, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, said he is “extremely concerned” by the political crisis in nuclear-armed Pakistan and that officials are closely monitoring opposition protests there.
The situation “continues to deteriorate very, very slowly under a political leadership which is very challenged because of the totality of the crisis,” Mullen said in an interview with PBS’s Charlie Rose broadcast late yesterday.

See: Admiral Mullen Extremely Concerned by Pakistan Crisis

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=ar5Z_DVFcx8M&refer=asia

Mar 16, 2009 - 12:37 am 116. blert:

IIRC…

The USA made the Pakis a ‘Godfather’ contract in regard for her nukes in and a round 9/11…

ie either your signature or your nation is going to sign this deal….

Does anyone at the Club forget the number of countries kissing Bush’s ring in the days following 9/11?

Pakistan was explicitly threatend with the ultimate.

Gec real…

ISI/ AQ goes after the White House, The Pentagon, the Capital.. Wall Street…

and Bush & Co say ‘It’s no big deal’…

or Bush & Co say “You’re with us or against us”…

Now, do you remember ?

Mar 16, 2009 - 12:45 am 117. Instapundit » Blog Archive » RICHARD FERNANDEZ: Pakistan implodes….:

[...] RICHARD FERNANDEZ: Pakistan implodes. [...]

Mar 16, 2009 - 2:31 am 118. djr:

A government on its ass has piles of lunatics in prison that must be dealt with; what to do? Well, if freed, they’ll head for the boarder where a well-armed force will kill most of them. Problem solved.

Mar 16, 2009 - 3:21 am 119. Doug:

KING: [ ... ] Do you think Chris Hill is up to that job [ambassador to Iraq] based on what he did in North Korea?

CHENEY: He’s not the man I would have picked for that post.
He doesn’t have any experience in the region.
He’s never served in that part of the world before.
He doesn’t speak the language.

He’s got none of the skills and talents that Ryan Crocker had, who was our last ambassador, who did a superb job, deserves as much credit as Dave Petraeus in terms of how that process worked during the surge that led to the success we’ve seen now in Iraq.

So I think it’s a choice that — a choice I wouldn’t have made. I did not support the work that Chris Hill did with respect to North Korea.

—
O.B.A.M.A.
One Big Ass Mistake, America!

Mar 16, 2009 - 3:22 am 120. Biker Trash:

What ever happened to the promise to track down and capture or kill bin Laden?

Fifty-something days and counting.

Mar 16, 2009 - 3:51 am 121. Brita:

This is very minor in the scheme of things developing in Pakistan, but it does potentially have a huge impact in the British Isles.

Currently a significant and ‘angry’ section of the many who have migrated here to the UK from Pakistan are beginning to sense if they come out of the woodwork and create problems, they will get what they want. Approved segregation into ‘enclaves’ where Sharia law rules, the unfettered ability to abuse women, forced marriages and honor killings, and so on. We have already seen a demonstration against soldiers returning from Iraq by a small group of muslim loonies who in turn had to be protected by the police from the wrath of the larger crowd.

Either they are doing this to stir up yet more hate (a typical Islamicist ploy) or are trying to get the feel for some sort of civil conflict.

As Pakistan implodes, these nutjobs will feel further emboldened should the taliban start getting power and access to nukes. These pretend-British people may have tribal loyalties, but the main thrust of the UK Pakistani and therefore muslim population – and their loyalty is always to their despicable ‘faith’ and their traditional home before anything else – is to break out in some sort of civil strife.

I have no doubt there are sleeper cells here and in other places in Europe (The Netherlands seems a big center for all this) and it wouldn’t surprise me if there is not only a lot of bomb-making knowledge but also some stockpiles of AK47s. Reports are that a number of muslim youths are engaging in some kind of psuedo-military training in remote areas of the UK, which I feel is less to do with boy scouts and more to do with planned armed insurrection. As the Brit police are traditionally unarmed, we are at an immediate disadvantage when bullets fly.

What this means is that on the back of a Pakistan collapse we in the UK will be fighting a civil war of sorts – a conflict propelled by the fall of law and order elsewhere. We may have to get our Afghan troops home to fight back, and I suspect that throughout Europe there will be battles breaking out from the Med to Scandinavia.

Yep, looks grim here.

Mar 16, 2009 - 4:40 am 122. RAH:

Britain’s failure to require immigrants to adopt the British way of life is reaping the consequences. British authorities have to stop appeasing the Muslim way of life that is incompatible with British values and customs. If the authorities do not and the Paki’s run roughshod over normal Brits than I hope and expect the normal British will lash out in “ socially unacceptable ways.”
This could include the age-old custom of burning out the unwelcome.

The British nation cannot sustain a two part legal system that allows Muslims to be treated one way under the law and Anglo Saxon British to be treated a different or harsher way.

Mar 16, 2009 - 5:35 am 123. michael hoskins:

LOF @ 92. Another, not Heinlein, though I can’t remember exactly.

Mar 16, 2009 - 6:31 am 124. LarryD:

#30 Derik: “I think that Bush was hated because he represented a reality that was unacceptable.”

Spot on.

Dr. Sanity The Consequences of Denial
“• The denier must then place the blame for the unacceptable reality on someone else and that leads to increased conflict between deniers and non-deniers. Efforts to maintain their denial consumes them and will lead them to escalate their anger and rage as their denial becomes untenable and ever more obvious.

“• The denier will begin distort language and logic to rationalize and justify their behavior(examples of this are too numerous to mention, but I have discussed it here , here and here) . Eventually, cognitive strategies and rational argument will be abandoned altogether by the denier, because those strategies are not sustainable and are unable to convince others; at which point the person in denial will simply refer to his feelings or emotions as the sole justification.”

Mar 16, 2009 - 7:03 am 125. Habu:

Well, all good points by everyone. As I said, all I know ,like Will Rogers is what I read. An Internet seach turns up quite a number of “The US controls Paki nukes” articles. But who really knows. It’s doubtful anyone on this blog knows for sure.

What we do know is that the Taliban are downright inhospitable to us, and various other groups wouldn’t mind giving us a nuclear nightmare. I guess what we’re discussing is just how high the probability is and which city or cities will get the treatment.

I do know this having spent 15 years in the CIA. There is plenty going on we have no knowledge of at all, and if successful never will. I mentioned Reagan selling computer chips to the Soviets that were programmed to fail after a certain period. They did and it was brilliant because they were used to control large parts of the Soviet infrastructure. I pushed them into capitulation.

As far as if we can’t control the supply routes how can we control the nukes is a huge non sequitur, the premise not coming close to the conclusion.

Admiral Michael Mullen in the best intelligence tradition is not going to give a credible assessment of anything in any open forum so I have to scale his comments on the Pakistan situation with a very finely calibrated counter.

But if all of the articles are wrong we still have RAH excellent point about our capabilities and what DARPA and other labs are developing to guard our nation. For myself I go with Shakespeare;

Julius Caesar Act II scene 2

” Of all the wonders that I yet have heard,
It seems to me most strange that men should fear,
Seeing that death, a necessary end,
Will come when it will come.

Mar 16, 2009 - 7:37 am 126. Habu:

Should be , It pushed them into capitulation. I may be strong but body odor doesn’t get the nuke thing settled, apologies for that.

Mar 16, 2009 - 7:40 am 127. Barry 0351:

we need retrograde Ops for troops still in theater ASAP before Obama turns this place into an American Stalingrad.
Obama has no idea of what the OTHERS (enemy combatants) are going to do so Force protection is the route to go. Get our men out and let the chips fall where they may.
If the war is lost as he states then do not let the Army in the field die or suffer the defeats just to appease muslim honor.
The Ones who hate the military in this country would let American’s troops be defeated in the field just to make a political point against Bush or the republican’s.

Mar 16, 2009 - 7:54 am 128. blert:

How many of the ‘Chechens’ running with AQ in the Kush are KGB/ Soviet Mafia players?

Could it really be that Putin thinks turnabout is fair play?

How is it that the shadow army is getting so professional so fast?

How can a non-motorized, RPG-7 toting crew so completely punk the Pakistani Army?

Isn’t it a fact that the US is providing overhead intelligence to both Pakistan and India for the last ten years?

How is it possible for the CIA to consistently get such good intel on the Kush crowd?

Isn’t it a gaming fiction that Osama is even alive?

I mean how in hell can that media darling stay off camera year after year while his number two is hogging the spotlight?

How much longer is the Pakistani Army going to let the civilians screw up seeing as how the country is going straight to hell, running out of cash?

What is Pakistan going to do if Australia, Canada and America don’t have enough food grains to export on the cheap?

Mar 16, 2009 - 8:58 am 129. Habu:

I just think we could save ourselves a big headache by leaving AF,(no not the Japanese WWII code for Midway Island).

We work with the Indians, at least a democracy although not a republic, and let Paki-Indian relations work there way toward a pro Indian resolution..beating the snot out of Paki.

It is undenialble that the British Empire and France lost world dominance in part because they bankrupted themselves with two world wars of horrific dimention with regard to manpower loss. Relative to those losses our are not even on the radar although each fallen American is a tragedy.

But we need a good period to exhale and allow the remainder of the world to pull the wagon of freedom a bit. Albeit the WOT isn’t going away but we’ve now got a totally cluelss Commander in Chief who hasn’t after three months filled VITAL cabinet posts and in the interim during just his first three months the world has lost 25% of the 50% total loss in capital. We can’t do it all.
We’re getting close enough in this country to actual armed conflict that it’s made the MSM…not good.

Mar 16, 2009 - 9:32 am 130. Another Chuck:

the US was seeking to supply NATO troops through Russia and Iran.

???!!! I must be living on a whole other planet, heck, a whole separate universe.

Mar 16, 2009 - 9:54 am 131. blert:

This is probably a reference to the German beer ration.

Mar 16, 2009 - 9:57 am 132. Bill Johnson:

#122 – Richard –
“The British nation cannot sustain a two part legal system that allows Muslims to be treated one way under the law and Anglo Saxon British to be treated a different or harsher way.”

Well, really, it’s ‘For how long can they sustain….?’ After all we are sustaining such a system even today – or do you misremember Tim Geithner, Chrley Rangel, William Jefferson (stop there, no Clinton)? And ours shows no hope of disappearing…

Mar 16, 2009 - 11:08 am 133. rvastar:

Nothing to worry about…just send in Obama’s chiseled abs.

Problem solved.

Mar 16, 2009 - 11:57 am 134. twobyfour:

0gabe will get many people killed: Purge: Obama gives ‘the boot’ to sanctions team at U.S. Treasury

Mar 16, 2009 - 12:02 pm 135. twobyfour:

Israel is on her own

Mar 16, 2009 - 12:21 pm 136. sgi:

Purging bullets:

DOD Ends Sale of Expended Military Brass to Remanufacturers

http://www.theshootist.net/2009/03/dod-ends-sale-of-expended-military.html

Mar 16, 2009 - 12:42 pm 137. Nightly Ramble:The Motel edition | BitsBlog:

[...] I’m watching Pakistan implode. Given the current occupant of the White House, why should any of this be a shock?

Mar 16, 2009 - 1:02 pm 138. Armeggedon Rex:

Habu, RAH, and others who believe in U.S. Intelligence apparatus superpowers:

I hope that reading ledger’s multiple comments disabused you of belief in any magical assets or abilities the U.S. intelligence / S.O.C. community may have demonstrated in a favorite novel or film.

We do not have any key control of Paki nukes.

We do not, with certainty, know the second to second location of their nuke arsenal.

The default mode for Paki nuclear weapons IN STORAGE is with triggers and bulk fissile material stored in separate facilities.

I’d wager a small number of Paki nukes are fully assembled and ready to go at a word of command, out patrolling on mobile missile launchers, or ready to load as gravity bombs for revetment protected & camouflage covered fighter aircraft on a few minutes notice.

During the recent Bombay terrorist attack some media speculation was made regarding the time it took to assemble Indian special forces troops to respond to the threat. The long response was because the “Black Cats” as they’re commonly known are always on alert, waiting for the go order to rapidly infiltrate Pakistan and render harmless as much of the Paki nuclear arsenal as possible.
These are some very tough, sharp operators who are either standing by for their mission, or stood down for R&R, and then training for their alert rotation. The alert team was obviously unavailable to respond in Bombay. They were in place ready to execute their primary mission if the incident tipped the entire subcontinent into open war. They had to make do with policemen and as many elite troops as could be gathered on fairly short notice.

Pakistan is currently in a state of civil war. Their government, in cooperation with our government and most of our media are doing everything they can to whitewash the situation because the Paki government is losing! They never controlled a sizable chunk of the country, and just lost another large and strategically / economically important part.

Many comments here have gone over possible solutions to “fix” the situation in the Paki / Afghani AOR many times. The current administration does not have the political will necessary to implement any of these solution sets. They may toy around with implementing a few ideas from various solution sets to satisfy various interests or pressure groups, but will do nothing coherent that can actually achieve anything significant.

Since they’re unwilling to do what is necessary to resolve the situation, they should pull nearly all our forces out, reducing our boots on the ground to only a few thousand special forces and their immediate support.

Some have suggested building roads as a critical step to nation building in Afghanistan. If we were instead discussing an impoverished African nation with no active fanatic terrorist rebellion, that might work. Road building advocates bring up the Roman example and British road building during their colonial era. I’ll demolish the road building cheering section folly with two words: HIGH EXPLOSIVES. The Taliban & Al Qaeda already have a great deal of experience using high explosives including recent work blowing bridges, roads and road building equipment at Jamrud and other locations I won’t discus here. Much of Afghanistan is mountainous, and cut by many seasonal watercourses. Any road in Northern or Eastern Afghanistan will by necessity have a large number of extremely vulnerable bridges.

The place is the ass end of the world, on the other side of the planet, and is a land locked wasteland. Cannoneer No. 4 went over all the unhappy details in an earlier post regarding distances from friendly seaports & airports, and is correct, that OEF has been living on borrowed time since K2 shut down.

We should get out. We aren’t going to win the way things are going. We should get out now before we lose more of our brothers and sisters in a conflict our government doesn’t really want to win!

Mar 16, 2009 - 1:44 pm 139. blert:

Dissing the Israelis is a sure route to wide open warfare in the middle east.

Obviously BHO is also cutting our friends off from overhead intel and the rest.

Israel has been thrown under the bus.

A cornered nation with nukes = disaster dead ahead.

Mar 16, 2009 - 1:45 pm 140. Fun and Games in Pakistan » The Ethereal Voice:

[...] From the Belmont Club on Sunday….. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s government continues to implode. The VOA reports that it has put a former Prime Minister under arrest and sealed off the capital against protesters. [...]

Mar 16, 2009 - 2:23 pm 141. davod:

“Bill Roggio describes how the fight seems to have drained out of some parts of the Pakistani armed forces, who have now resorted to try and buy the Taliban off.”

I didn’t read the comments, so I apologize if this has alredy been said. I would bet that the elite Pakistani fighting units are many miles away from the Taliban. They are sitting on their side of The Line Of Control, protecting the Muslim world from the dreaded Infidel in India.

Mar 16, 2009 - 2:58 pm 142. Habu:

#138 A Rex…golly you’ve made ,more than just a few very definitive statements, none of which you can prove yet your presentation suggests that what you say IS the way it is….not credible dude.

“We do not have any key control of Paki nukes.
We do not, with certainty, know the second to second location of their nuke arsenal.”

Neither one of these you can say with any authority, no more than I could equivocally say the opposite. You do get points for being being bombastic in your pronunciamentos.

Knowing that we have multiple national technical means that can detect radioactive material from space some of your statements are a wee bit bold.

Mar 16, 2009 - 3:34 pm 143. Armeggedon Rex:

Habu @ 142:

I will not discuss AFTAC and other asset capabilities in this forum.

Regarding Paki nuke keys…. I know!

Mar 16, 2009 - 4:03 pm 144. twobyfour:

@ 142. Habu

We can dtect radioactive material from space. However, two factors that make it somewhat a limited scope:
1. The coverage of a particular area being watched–non-stationary satellites that scan the area (beside others on it’s path) depend on their orbital parameters. So, it is not a constant coverage.
2. The resolution of the detection is not that great. It is 10’s of square kilometers. The data must be combined with visuals to get somewhat more accurate “picture”. Luckily, we are in time of a low solar activity, but if that were not the case, the resolution of the detection system is lowered in one order of magnitude during heightened sollar activity.

Conclusion: Rex’s pronouncements were not that off the mark as you make them to be.

Mar 16, 2009 - 4:12 pm 145. Cannoneer No. 4:

ref Rex’s 138 —

Beyond the Kyber, #69:

437 statute miles from Dubai to Gwadar,keeping south of Iranian airspace.
482 miles from Gwadar NW to Kandahar. 919 miles one way. No fuel at Kandahar, so 1838 miles round trip.

1,065 statute miles from Dubai across Iran to Bagram. No fuel at Bagram, so 2,130 mile round trip.

With a payload of 169,000 pounds (76,657 kilograms) and an initial cruise altitude of 28,000 feet (8,534 meters), the C-17 has an unrefueled range of approximately 2,400 nautical miles, or 2,762 statute miles, so they can do this, for a while, at enormous cost.

Inventory of C-17’s: Active duty, 158; Air National Guard, 8; Air Force Reserve, 8

Mar 16, 2009 - 4:19 pm 146. blert:

For any length of time the cost becomes prohibitive.

The wear and tear on the Globemasters in primitive conditions will have the fleet crashing time and again.

If it becomes necessary to use airlift, the only thing to do is pull out.

A ‘Burma Road’ to Kandahar is the only realistic solution. But BHO & Co would never go there.

It really looks like BHO is trying to destroy the DOD. He’s using the Alinsky method of absurd over commitment to tilting the windmill.

Note his desire to screw over the insurance industry and suffering wounded veterans.

He’s a tyrant. This is but the beginning.

Tyranny is based not on the gun but on deceit. It’s through the agitprop engine that the flock is fleeced.

BTW, don’t forget all of our military dependents in Afghanistan: NATO. We’d be their supplier, too. Their airlift capability is nil.

Mar 16, 2009 - 5:03 pm 147. blert:

Perhaps flying directly from India to Afghanistan could work out.

It seems as practical as Dubai.

Mar 16, 2009 - 5:05 pm 148. Habu:

#143 A Rex….well you’ve already violated your secrecy agreement then.

I’m sure we’ll all simply accept your word as THE definitve authority on all things regarding Pak nukes.

It’s so good to know we have someone who will step up and claim the title and then not defend it on national security grounds…which admittedly you did not specifically state but implied with and air of audacity.

I know I’ll look forward with great interest as you unpeel the onion for us.

Mar 16, 2009 - 5:09 pm 149. Habu:

A Rex.

Allow me to back up a bit and not be so bloody an ass as I know I can be.

A great deal of what you say I fully and heartily agree with, such as:

“Since they’re unwilling to do what is necessary to resolve the situation, they should pull nearly all our forces out, reducing our boots on the ground to only a few thousand special forces and their immediate support.

In point of fact I agree with most of what you say. My apologies for coming on like a f’ing arse.

Keep up the good work, I hope you are not in any danger for I too have been clandestine and it ain’t all that fun.

Please accept my apology.

Mar 16, 2009 - 5:18 pm 150. Armeggedon Rex:

Habu:

Nothing to apologize for. I’ve received a lot worse before, and that in front of a crowd. As to being clandestine, I’ve never had to do that, or had the urge to try. Since you have, my hat is off to you! You’ve got bigger cahonnes than me! I’ve been in the dirt enough, but always as an Amreki Infidel. I was never hiding who I was, just what I was doing, sometimes!

There are some programs I was read into, and others I wasn’t. I’ve picked up a lot of information on stuff that I didn’t work on. I comment on the stuff I know something about but didn’t work on directly. I’ll comment on stuff I worked on that I know has already been covered in the media but is not common knowledge, even with a group as worldly as those who hang out at Belmont Club.

So, thank you for your goodwill. Let your comments fly! As it sounds like you know, there are plenty of different opinions on what the available data means, even among folks paid to analyze, assess, and decide!

Mar 16, 2009 - 5:53 pm 151. RAH:

Rex. I agree with most of your post. However the nukes may have some mobile launchers but not with the precision targeting that the US enjoys. I am not scared of Pakistani missiles with nukes reaching the US. The biggest problem is intimidation with possession of nukes. Also we will not attack a nuclear power.

Any nuclear missile exchange takes in account the known locations and possible other locations.

The only major fear is a nuclear warhead being transported by ship to European or US locality.

No this is more of a concern to India, not to us.

Mar 16, 2009 - 6:44 pm 152. Habu:

A Rex,
You are most gracious.
Thx
H.

Mar 16, 2009 - 9:11 pm 153. davod:

“Rex. I agree with most of your post. However the nukes may have some mobile launchers but not with the precision targeting that the US enjoys.”

How do we know the Chinese have not passed on the technology they received from the US in the 90s.

Mar 17, 2009 - 6:10 am 154. Armeggedon Rex:

RAH & davod:

RAH is correct in that the Paki medium range ballistic missiles and relatively short range cruise missiles are not a direct threat to the U.S. but are a significant threat to India. None of the “new” nuclear powers have effective nuclear tipped ICBMs yet. So, yes the direct threat to the U.S. comes from a nuclear warhead with a timer or radio command detonator shipped into the U.S. via ship, rail, air, or truck. The inspections of third world nation air carriers sending jets to the U.S. is tighter than it was pre-9/11 but still has many gaping holes. I’m sure most of you have read the RAND study about Long Beach, so that needs no further comment other than to note that in spite of the dramatic lip service promising to tighten things up, little real progress has been made to ensure incoming cargo is thoroughly checked. I don’t believe I need to innumerate the flaws with U.S. / Mexican border controls to any Belmont Club commenters. We’re sitting ducks. Eventually someone will smuggle in one or more nukes and detonate them in the hearts of U.S. cities. It’s a good reason to get back to a 1950s mentality. Move out of the city; build a bomb shelter in the basement, stock up several weeks of canned food, potable water, etc.

I can’t comment on the myriad U.S. technologies that have made their way into Chinese hands except to say, the list is long and the damage, quite extensive. I often hope our security and counter intelligence folks are given higher priority and less flack from congress and lawyers. With less interference they could stop a great deal of skullduggery without stepping on any U.S. citizen’s rights.

Mar 17, 2009 - 8:23 am 155. Meryl:

I have the sickening feeling that the mid-level officials in our government (including many bureaucrats) are having a terrible time maintaining even status quo with re to unstable nations such as Pakistan for the simple reason that the mid-level officials in governments around the world can’t even be sure at this point who to contact in the United States for support, intel survey/evaluation, etc. because of the complete malfeasance on the part of bambi’s OJT crew.

Sorry that’s such a long sentence, but there ya go.

Appreciate the insightful comments from those who know stuff……

I’m afraid we’ve living ugly history.

Mar 17, 2009 - 8:52 pm

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