The BBC has this report on Hezbollah, which I predict will be studiously ignored, just as if it had never been uttered.
The leader of Lebanon’s Islamist Hezbollah movement, Hassan Nasrallah, has said his group will never recognise Israel’s right to exist.
He was responding to a US suggestion that both Hezbollah and the Palestinian faction Hamas should recognise Israel before expecting any US engagement.
“We reject the American conditions,” he said. “As long as Hezbollah exists, it will never recognise Israel.”
So will the US talk to it? My guess is that it eventually, it will. Recently, “Economic Recovery Adviser Paul A. Volcker and nine former senior American officials have urged President Barack Obama to engage in dialogue with Hamas leaders.” So it is quite clear that an unflagging intention to destroy Israel doesn’t constitute an insurmountable barrier. So far, the administration has been reluctant to talk to Hezbollah. But I don’t know whether it will hold the line for long. Nasrallah has two trump cards which have been handed to him entirely for nothing. The first is the almost certain knowledge that the US has taken regime change in Damascus or Teheran completely off the table. This means that, whatever its objections, Washington has guaranteed Hezbollah’s strategic existence. “As long as Hezbollah exists, it will never recognize Israel,” Nasrallah said. Well Hezbollah will exist for a long time; so declaring a determination to exterminate Israel is something that he can safely say because it carries no penalty from Washington.
The second trump card is that Hassan Nasrallah — if given the signal by Damascus and Teheran — can plunge the region into war. That is something that terrifies Lebanon and is not viewed with relish by Israel. The BBC reported late last year that “Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak has said the Lebanese Hezbollah movement now has three times as many missiles as before the 2006 Lebanon war. Mr Barak told MPs some of its 42,000 missiles could reach the southern towns of Ashkelon, Beersheba and Dimona, more than 200km (125 miles) from the border.” As a state within a state and with more missiles than the Lebanese government, decision whether or not to go to war with Israel does not rest with Beirut. It lies with the Syrian and Iranian-backed Nasrallah. Will they be able to avoid buttering up to him? My guess is no.
With these two cards in hand, Nasrallah can be reasonably sure that both London and Washington, having painted themselves into a corner, will sooner or later come, tail between their legs, to his door. There will be political cover; perhaps some fig leaf to cover the abjectness of it all; but the basic position is this: if Nasrallah believes neither Obama nor Brown are willing to cross him, he will spit in their face and know they will take it.
My guess? The Bearded One will get away with it. And oh, about Hezbollah’s pledge to destroy Israel? He never said it, and if he said it the sophisticates will never believe it; and even if they believe it they won’t consider that it matters. What matters is the illusion of the peace process. That must be kept going at all events. Even if Hezbollah declares itself out, they will always find a way to deal it in.
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16 Comments
1. tharkun:This is not new. As Nasrallah’s predecessor, Hussein Massawi, the Hezbollah leader behind the slaughter of U.S. and French forces 20 years ago said:
“We are not fighting so that you will offer us something. We are fighting to eliminate you.”
Mar 15, 2009 - 5:34 am 2. More on Code Words [Dan Collins]:[...] in code words for their ideological opponents at home, while rationalizing and apologizing for the forthright and unequivocal statements of hatred towards our allies and intended harm towards us they find among our enemies [...]
Mar 15, 2009 - 5:50 am 3. Barry 0351:This will end with the invasion of Israel by American forces on the request of the Palistinian’s to effect regime change.
Mar 15, 2009 - 6:16 am 4. jjmurphy:Why do we give these terrorists in the Middle East any sort of legitimacy? They are nothing more than thugs and psychopathic killers, under the guise of a religion, with enough weapons to scare everybody. To even talk with them gives them power. They should be marginalized, ridiculed, starved of funds, then eliminated. We should NOT be talking with them. How about changing the direction of the above quote: “We are going to talk with you in the hope you will offer us something. We are going to eliminate you.”
In their mind it is “us or them”. I happen to agree and think our culture should have it in our mind to win.
Mar 15, 2009 - 6:17 am 5. CPT. Charles:I was wondering when it would become clear that Dear Leader [and the people whispering in his ear] was leading our Republic into a deeper, darker hole than that asshat Carter ever could. Sadly, he’s exceeding my expectations my a considerable margin.
Now, the only question left [for me, at any rate...] to be answered is this: is this march to the Abyss being fueled by wishful thinking, or by malice.
Mar 15, 2009 - 6:59 am 6. Lifeofthemind:@Barry 0351,
Susan Powers
The rage that Western conduct feeds is greater than the hatred of Israel and all jews that the West ignores. On a basic level Nasrallah and company actually prefer the Israelis to the Americans and Europeans. They respect the Israelis and more to the point they believe that the Israelis respect them. In their 7th century minds the fight to the death between arab and jew is honorable. Western constant coddling of them only infuriates because it so palpably reeks of disrespect. It treats them like adolescents under the tutelage of a Guidance Counselor. This only throws gasoline onto the cultural bias towards misogyny when they face a feminized West.
We live in a world where adolescents kill each other because someone stepped on their $120 sneakers. When asked why they will say, “He Dissed me.” When I was teaching a particular tough guy wannabe thought he could drop in once every couple of weeks to graze among the female students and perform a little disruption ritual. First he tried to play me with the “poor oppressed ghetto boy me, don’t you feel sorry for me Mr Money?” act. He was nonplussed when that did not gain traction. Then I told him, “I don’t have to deal with this garbage.” I was thinking the word “crap” and he knew it but there are rules. What I was thinking was what I would have said as a naval officer, “Tell it to the Chaplain.” Then I went on, “We have someone here who is paid to listen to your story, I’m sending you to Mrs. Nussbaum. She’s warm, she’s sympathetic, she cares.” Mrs. Nussbaum was a well endowed, indeed slightly zaftig Guidance Counselor in her late 40s whose office was, honest to god, in a converted bathroom. The student instantly melted. “Please Mr (…) not that, you can beat me instead. I want you to.” Sorrowfully I shook my head, “No.” After that I failed him and then one day I saw he had got hurt, probably in a fight, and I helped a Security Guard carry him to the Nurses office. After that he followed me like a puppy and the tough kids either treated me OK or ignored me. I did have one kid that I failed come up to me and shake my hand and thank me, for treating him with “Respect.”.
Our friend whiskey could add some good points here.
Mar 15, 2009 - 6:59 am 7. Insufficiently Sensitive:Seems like the current administration must be devoted readers of the Economist, which has never seen a scheme to have the US force attrition and eventual defeat on Israel that it didn’t like.
Wasting those trump cards, particularly the threat of regime change in Syria, is indeed a blatant signal of a mindless limp-dick Kumbaya foreign policy. Neville Chamberlain was a mere piker, and Obama/Hillary will show us all how to create world chaos and massive death in grand 21st century style, with arugula on the side, while looting the American till to prop up their domestic ‘electorate’.
Mar 15, 2009 - 7:35 am 8. NahnCee:“As long as Hezbollah exists, it will never recognise Israel.”
THe obvious solution to this conundrum is to make sure Hezbollah and all its component parts AND underlying ideology cease to exist. Then no one has to worry about whether or not to recognize Israel.
Mar 15, 2009 - 9:43 am 9. whiskey:Of course, nothing happens in a vacuum. Israel, feeling desperate, and betrayed, is likely as many nations in similar circumstances (Poland, Czech Republic) to take action. For the latter, it will be nuking up as quickly as possible. For the former, likely a first strike against Tehran, one massive and “life-preserving” in that the aim is to kill so many Iranians as they will not create a threat, and simultaneous invasion of Lebanon to wipe out Hezbollah.
Even Israel, deeply feminized and suburban (same thing) can realize time is running out and the second Holocaust looms. People will do anything to survive. ANYTHING.
Mar 15, 2009 - 10:01 am 10. Gordon:Volcker?? What does he have to do with this? He’s supposed to be handing out bailout money.
Mar 15, 2009 - 10:03 am 11. Herb:Whiskey: “Israel….can realize time is running out and the second Holocaust looms. People will do anything to survive. ANYTHING.”
I know that, you all here know that, the American people know that, and more importantly I think the Israelis (down deep inside) know that, but does O’Bamma? Does Hezbollah?
Part of our problem is that the current American regime lacks a fundamental understanding of the necessity for survival and how it justifies a host of extraordinary actions and activities.
When (not if), Israel has to take the necessary and do what it has to, there will be great soul searching and gnashing of teeth in certain quarters over America’s “enabling” of their actions and the “awful” consequences for “Peace In the Middle East” ™.
Meanwhile in the souk and the rest of the Arab street, quiet and contemplation of the consequences of overreach. And likely peace in the middle East.
Mar 15, 2009 - 10:43 am 12. hdgreene:We still have a trump card for their trump cards. Jeb Bush in 2012!
Mar 15, 2009 - 12:08 pm 13. Utopia Parkway:So far Obama and Co haven’t really done anything really stupid regarding foreign affairs, that is to say, regarding the ME. They’ve been talking about talking but so far all the bad guys have said either that they won’t be talking or that if they do talk they won’t be changing. Iran, Hamas, Syria, HB, etc. Talk maybe, change no. OTOH, Iran may just be trying to run out the clock.
Regarding the Volcker letter if you see the other signatories you’ll see that this isn’t news. We knew what Ted Brzinski’s opinion was on Israel a while ago. The fact that he’s urging the Pres to talk to Israel’s enemies, aka terrorists, isn’t news. I think the letter is a few months old also.
In the end, if the intl community doesn’t support Israel there will be war. There may be war anyway of course. One of the Bush administration’s biggest blunders in the ME was forcing Israel and the PA to allow Hamas to be part of the elections without forcing it to renounce violence. Thank you Dr. Rice. The results have been the strengthening of Hamas, violence, the weakening of Abbass and his party, and the movement of the Israeli public to the right and also convincing it that Peace is impossible.
If attempts are made to engage HB and Hamas without strong demands that they moderate the results will be the same. Strengthening of radicals, weakening of moderates, and continued violence.
Mar 15, 2009 - 1:29 pm 14. NahnCee:Isn’t talking and talking what got Europe into WW2? And not taking action when certain maniacs were doing maniacal things? Therefore and thusly, it seems to me that merely talking and talking could very well be termed “doing something really stupid”.
Mar 15, 2009 - 2:15 pm 15. 49erDweet:As to Nahn Cee’s point one must be a little brighter than stupid to comprehend the complexity of her rationale. Unfortunately the happy handlers of the current administation fall short of this mark. Won’t be long before the “something stupid” mentioned will be borne out in spades. Stand by.
Mar 15, 2009 - 6:24 pm 16. what is occupation:Hezbollah, Syria, Iran & The Palestinians are playing with fire…..
The left in israel is dead…
Arafat started the death blow by refusing to accept a peace deal at Taba..
Sharon by dragging Jews from gaza and watching the greenhouses get looted, hamas tossing fatah from rooftops and using the strip as a base for iranian rockets has PROVED to 79% of Israelis that there cannot be “peace” with Iran, Hezbollah, Syria & the Palestinians (hamas & fatah)…
Separation is the only way…
In fact what we are now waiting for is a reasonable reason to start the destruction….
Israel will NOT go into the night quietly… and a BHO administration hostile to Israel HASTENS the moment Israel will destroy her enemies…
fasten the seatbelts we like in interesting times…
Now couple all of that with Iran having solid fuel 2-3 stage rockets and the possibility of an Iranian EMP…
Iran might just hit Arabia with a nuke…
Mar 15, 2009 - 8:01 pmSorry, comments for this entry are closed at this time.