Tigerhawk listened to President Obama’s appeal to Iran and laid out what he thought were the differences between the current and past administration’s positions. The essential difference was that America no longer wants regime change. It wants behavior change.
Explicitly, President Obama is also addressing the “leaders of the Islamic Republic.” He is telling them that the United States recognizes the current regime’s right to exist, as it were, and that we are only seeking a change in its behavior. Technically, this was also the position of the Bush administration, but with two crucial differences. First, the track record of the Bush administration was such that its claim that it was not seeking to overturn the regime rang hollow to most observers (although not on the hawkish American right, which was outraged by Secretary Rice’s relatively non-confrontational posture).
The other difference is that the Bush administration believed that it needed to sharpen differences between the Iranian people and its regime in order to make progress against the latter’s intransigence, and that public communication with the mullahs would weaken the Iranian opposition rather than strengthen it. The Obama administration apparently believes that (1) the Iranian opposition does not matter, or (2) a more accomodating posture toward the regime will not hurt the opposition. It is not clear which position predominates from the video, but since the President omitted any statement of support for the political or human rights of the Iranian people, a sharp departure from the policies of Bush 43, Bill Clinton, and (for heaven’s sake) Jimmy Carter, I’m going with door number one.
Tigerhawk is probably right about the Iranian opposition being sent out through Door Number 1. The drivers behind the decision to stop fighting the regime in Teheran in exchange for an undertaking of good behavior are probably the European need for natural gas, an ambition to achieve a comprehensive peace settlement in the Middle East (in which Iran’s cooperation will be necessary) and Afghanistan, where logistical difficulties and geopolitical history make it attempting to enlist at least tacit help from Iran. The recent drop in world oil prices may have persuaded Obama’s advisers that now was the time to make their pitch to Iran. Of course the Ayatollahs may also have decided that the current financial crisis makes it a good time to refuse.
While the Obama administration appears to have accepted the existence of the regimes in Syria and Teheran, one wonders what corresponding guarantees have been extended to the existence of the Lebanese government, for example. Does recognizing making nice to Teheran mean that Hezbollah is now an official State-Within-A-State? A permanent cancer in Lebanon? It would be ironic if the opposition (or perhaps insurgent) faction in an friendly country were recognized as untouchable while the domestic opposition to the Ayatollahs was not.
The French and Germans have welcomed Obama’s message. The response of Merkel and Sarkozy to Obama’s initiative was reported in Reuters:
France and Germany, which with Britain have led unsuccessful European Union efforts to persuade Iran to give up uranium enrichment, both welcomed the Obama initiative.
“I think the message reflects exactly what the Europeans have always wanted — that an offer is being made to Iran and… (I hope) that this is being used,” German Chancellor Angela Merkel said at an EU summit in Brussels.
French President Nicolas Sarkozy said: “For my part I remain convinced that with a barrel of Brent (crude oil) well under $50 the policy of sanctions remains relevant, while at the same time there is need for dialogue.”
The linkage between Iran and the Middle East ‘peace process’ was highlighted by AFP, which argued that “President Barack Obama has made a deft overture to Iran in a videotaped message that could pave the way to ending three decades of bad blood with the United States, experts say. In opening up to Iran, Obama has his eye on bringing peace and stability to Iraq, Afghanistan, Lebanon, Israel and the Palestinian territories as well as fighting the spread of nuclear weapons, they add.” Lebanese politics, always sensitive to which way the international wind blows, may now be wondering whether to do deals with the Hezbollah. In that country, survival is the first priority, this may signal the need to reshuffle the political cards. The Lebanese Daily Star says “Obama has fired the starter’s gun in the season of engagement”.
The implications of this tentative courtship between Washington and Tehran might already be spilling over to Lebanon, which is preparing for a round of parliamentary elections in June. We can monitor the leaders of Lebanon’s rival camps and their rhetoric, to gauge the changing times. If the rhetoric cools down in Lebanon, we can assume that using an “agenda of accusation” is not going to be the operative strategy for the election campaign. This will mean room for a third party to enter the fray and stake out its own place, as the mobilization of voters for a battle between “good and evil” cools off.
But it’s also important to notice who is not talking to whom. There is the idea that not talking to Israel effectively sends it a message. By firing the ’starting gun of engagement’, Obama has now put Israel in the path of his engagement bulldozer. Hezbollah knows that although everybody claims to want to negotiate, the essential thing is not to negotiate with Israel.
Hezbollah Deputy Secretary General Sheikh Naim Qassem said President Michel Sleiman had “done well” by rejecting France’s suggestion that Lebanon should talk with Israel, “since we have nothing to discuss.” … He said European and non-European countries were stretching out their hands to Hezbollah and were trying to build relations with it. Qassem attributed the development in its international relations to the Resistance’s existence, popularity and “great victories.”
The New York Times reports that Israel is facing increasing isolation because of its decision to go into Gaza.
JERUSALEM — Israel, whose founding idea was branded as racism by the United Nations General Assembly in 1975 and which faced an Arab boycott for decades, is no stranger to isolation. But in the weeks since its Gaza war, and as it prepares to inaugurate a hawkish right-wing government, it is facing its worst diplomatic crisis in two decades.
Examples abound. Its sports teams have met hostility and violent protests in Sweden, Spain and Turkey. Mauritania has closed Israel’s embassy.
Relations with Turkey, an important Muslim ally, have suffered severely. A group of top international judges and human rights investigators recently called for an inquiry into Israel’s actions in Gaza. “Israel Apartheid Week” drew participants in 54 cities around the world this month, twice the number of last year, according to its organizers. And even in the American Jewish community, albeit in its liberal wing, there is a chill.
As in Lebanon, the international winds are blowing through Israeli domestic politics. CNN reports that Netanyahu is still struggling to find coalition partners for his government. So what does it all mean? Get on the bus, Bibi, before it leaves the station. Nail down some part of Israel or maybe risk it all.
“With the surge of other right-wing parties, Netanyahu had enough seats to form a government. But he needed the cooperation of Labor or Kadima to fulfill his promise “to form a broad national unity government.” Tzipi Livni, Kadima’s leader, said, when rejecting Netanyahu’s invitation to join the government, that the main sticking point was his refusal to commit to negotiations with the Palestinians that would lead to a Palestinian state.
From one point of view, Obama’s message to Iran less reflect’s Teheran’s weakness than his own. The Ayatollah’s have probably suspected for a long time that Obama was going to be all carrot and no stick. Secure in this knowledge, they’re going to hold out for more because their downside is distinctly limited. And they already have. The AP reports an initial rejection of Obama’s overture. “The Iranian government brushed aside a Persian New Year’s message Friday from President Barack Obama offering to resolve years of hostility, saying it wants concrete change from Washington before it’s ready to enter a dialogue.” Teheran needs further goodies. And the probability is that they’ll get them. After all, Hamas has gotten its $900 million. What of the Iranian opposition and those who’ve resisted Hezbollah? What of those who’ve resisted Hamas? What part of “we’ve won” don’t they understand?
PJM Home
Pajamas Media appreciates your comments that abide by the following guidelines:
1. Avoid profanities or foul language unless it is contained in a necessary quote or is relevant to the comment.
2. Stay on topic.
3. Disagree, but avoid ad hominem attacks.
4. Threats are treated seriously and reported to law enforcement.
5. Spam and advertising are not permitted in the comments area.
The clause regarding "hate speech" has been deleted because readers criticized it as being too loosely defined. We agreed.
These guidelines are very general and cannot cover every possible situation. Please don't assume that Pajamas Media management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment. We reserve the right to filter or delete comments or to deny posting privileges entirely at our discretion. If you feel your comment was filtered inappropriately, please email us at story@pajamasmedia.com.
43 Comments
1. blert:H is going to make Neville Chamberlain look stout.
Of course, if H wants Iran to attack first…
So that he can replay the FDR script…
Then punking Israel is the way to go.
Make nuclear war certain. We’d have real change.
That will make H famous forever.
Further, in full war mode he’d have unlimited power.
Mar 20, 2009 - 4:59 pm 2. Lifeofthemind:If… he can finance it.
I wrote on the last thread about the US hoping to rely on the Iranians to get supplies to the troops in Afghanistan. This is an idea so transparent and sad that our best hope is that the wolves will be shocked into inactivity.
Mar 20, 2009 - 5:15 pm 3. Bonzo:Is Iran a suicide bomb waiting for a ride to a ‘target’ or not? Of course the fact that Obama has a ‘kick me’ sign stuck on him big and bold will not change things.
Mar 20, 2009 - 5:17 pm 4. whiskey:Bibi CANNOT negotiate for a Palestinian State. Not only is his domestic conservative coalition opposed to it, so is most of Israel which has been rocketed. Only the suburban, feminized part of Israel that has not been rocketed (Livni’s base) approves of a “deal.”
In any event, most of Israel is now convinced Obama has already decided to betray them.
But they have a trump card. Which they might well play — strike first, hard and completely with their own nuclear weapons, and announce a policy thereafter of being willing to strike without warning at threatening enemies. Followed by gaining as much additional nuclear weapons as possible.
Explaining publicly that Obama betrayed them and promised to sit back and let Iran nuke them.
It would be believed by most voters in the US, Obama is already weak, and he cannot as a crypto-Muslim scream at Israel the way Reagan or Bush I or Clinton could.
Hamas and Hezbollah do not matter on their own, nor do sports team boycotts matter much. What matters is how close Iran is to nuking Israel out of existence, likely with Obama’s tacit approval.
THAT is the game being played.
Mar 20, 2009 - 5:33 pm 5. Marie Claude:I think Iran will not be too long to comply, their supporters are broke
http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/016/286uzncs.asp
also the mullah enterprises are cuting jobs too
what we see it’s a kind of ritual where the fiancee seems to say no, just to look not “easy”
Mar 20, 2009 - 6:02 pm 6. Walt:The Obama initiative to Teheran will shortly be seen to be spun sugar. Netanyahu is not Tzipi Livni, and neither is he Barack Obama. Bibi will not wait for the inevitable. He will form a cabinet from the right, and he will strike Iran before the summer is out. And what then of the Obama olive branch when the missiles start to fly and the middle east is aflame? Obama simply does not want to believe that the mullahs want the Israelis dead, and after them, us. Bibi will not let the Persians get the bomb, even if that’s okay with Obama. The only question in my mind is, is Netanyahu Leonidas? Does Ahmadinejad think he’s Xerxes? Does Western civilization once again hinge on a small group of guys with guts, this time the Israeli Air Force?
Netanyahu takes no guff
Mar 20, 2009 - 6:10 pm 7. Leo Linbeck III:We know the man is something tough
He’ll not forget what happened to his brother
He’ll take his time to get it right
But no mistake, the man will fight
One holocaust they’ve had, but not another
The mullahs in Teheran now squirm
As Israel will have a firm
And steady hand upon the Ship of State
When Bibi says they shall not get
The bomb then it’s a darn good bet
The F15s will fly without debate
The F15s and F16s
Have long range tanks and so that means
The range has been increased to let them reach
The mullahs and their scurvy crew
And hidden bomb assemblies too
Though all know it won’t be a day at beach
The IAF is set to fly
The crews all know the reason why
It’s all because the mullahs raised the stakes
The threat to kill the Jews is real
And that is why the pilots feel
They’ll fly to hell and back if’s what it takes
Who knows what the result will be
Who knows what horrors we will see
When Persians block the Straits of old Hormuz
And US Navy gets the job
Of taking out the Persian mob
Unless of course Obama wants to lose
With Persia on the rise again
They think they have the guts and men
Like Xerxes thought when facing but a few
Three hundred Spartans laid them low
Three hundred planes to strike the blow
We’re gonna see Thermopylae number Two
Time for a sonnet:
— —
Barack began to make his Bargain Grand
By talks with all his Euro-Arab mates
If these fair folks would only understand
His long-held love for misanthropic states
The Jews, he knew their war-worn weakness well
And sensed that they would want to do a deal
So ‘prompted to Iran regrets so swell
In hope that they would change and come to heel
Instead the mullahs snickered ‘neath their beard
And knew that patience pays a pretty prize
Then said “No, thanks” as Hamas loudly sneered
And Hezbollah divined the Jews’ demise
At klatches in New York they’ll soon discuss
How one should hold a seder ‘neath a bus
— —
L3
Mar 20, 2009 - 6:20 pm 8. Thrasymachus:Giving up is hard to do. It’s against human nature, not just of people inclined to be stubborn, but all people.
People are pretty fixed and unshakable in their view of the world. Their worldview changes only in the most traumatic and catastrophic situations.
The urge to try something one more time, even though it has repeatedly failed, is difficult to overcome. “Just one more time” is on the tombstone of countless fool’s errands and doomed enterprises.
Plently of people seem to sincerely believe Iran can be negotiated with. If this belief was limited to liberal idealists, it would be bad wnough, but it is the conservative realist position as well. So we go from a realist administration, groveling before Iran, to the opposite that loathes it, which also grovels before Iran.
The US is going to need many more years of abject humiliation before it does anything. Maybe even that won’t trigger any response.
Mar 20, 2009 - 6:22 pm 9. Lifeofthemind:Walt,
Mar 20, 2009 - 6:29 pm 10. blert:Gates of Fire
Israel is likely I think going to depend on submarine launched cruise missiles to destroy key facilities. The Iranians are probably going nuts, crippling their own productivity, tearing everything up looking for evidence of zionist spy sabotage. With any luck that makes the job of real professionals easier in penetrating their facilities. I would think that the first targets would be the refined petroleum products storage facilities, transportation manifolds and Iran’s sole refinery.
The negotiations that will count: the mullahs vs the IMF.
Iran imports a surprising amount of food, gasoline and medicine. I’d say such imports must be maintained at all cost for the regime to carry on.
Oil prices are down, and Iran is restricted to the heavy, sour end of the market so she doesn’t even clear the $$$ you think she does.
Her fields require more extraction effort, too. So her spread is quite inferior to the magic Kingdom.
Having Ben kill the dollar may get the price of oil up but since Iran does not trade with America it’s of no benefit: Euro pricing is going up, too.
The way to negotiate with the mullahs is to drain their balances at every turn.
Mar 20, 2009 - 6:33 pm 11. Lifeofthemind:Do not assume that BHO would order the US Navy to turn on Iran and contain them after an Israeli attack. Do not fool yourself that he will swing into a de facto alliance with Israel. I assume the worst. Obama might guarantee the security of Bahrain and the UAE if they stay neutral. He might order the US Navy to escort shipping through the straits of Hormuz to protect Iranian interests and order the US to “Quarantine” Israel.
A US sub just hit a US amphib in the straits.
Mar 20, 2009 - 6:34 pm 12. blert:The first targets would be the Iranian navies, both of them.
The second priority would be Kharg Island.
Next the refinery.
Then key ports: cut Iran off from the world: blockade.
Then go after the power grid, it’s easy.
Pre-deploy logistics so as to pull off astounding tactics.
Keep the nukes as escalation reserve.
Mar 20, 2009 - 6:39 pm 13. Lifeofthemind:If Israel could do this with agents in place it accomplishes two things;
Mar 20, 2009 - 6:52 pm 14. Jim in Virginia:1) It paralyzes the Iranians and the Arabs as their worst nightmares come true. Decades of bogeyman stories come back to haunt them.
2) It serves as a powerful warning to the West that angry ignorant Islamic mobs aren’t the only thing they have to worry about. The Mossad could have a bomb anywhere. Let Putin stare under his toilet and wonder. Let the Spanish PM get on a chair to inspect the chandelier over his bed.
George H.W. Bush went to war when Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait and threatened the House of Saud.
Mar 20, 2009 - 6:54 pm 15. Walt:Would Barack Hussein Obama go to war if Iran invaded Kuwait, Bahrain and the Emirates? Would Bibi?
Closing Hormuz and threatening the Saudis would bring oil to $200 a barrel. The mullahs’ economic problem is solved. No one with the capability to hurt Iran would do so. They’d automatically be a superpower.
OTOH- what does it say that US ships are operating in such close proximity in the Straits that they run into each other?
LOTM
Gates of Fire is a perfect description of what’s going to happen. When the Israelis hit they will hit with everything in their arsenal, including sub launched cruises. They will hold their nukes in reserve, but the mullahs will understand they will be used if need be. And I agree completely that we cannot know at this point whose side Obama will be on. The only thing certain is that when the next war comes to the middle east it will come with a shock, and the world as seen from the White House will be a different world than it is now. Let’s not forget the Israelis have been preparing for this eventuality for some time; they have bought specially designed and configured F-15s, the F-15I, that can reach Teheran. And I have no doubt they have a few surprises.
Mar 20, 2009 - 6:55 pm 16. Habu:#1 Blerts opening sentence is the story.
Our poltroon, Hussein 0bama, has signal his willingness to sacrifice the Jews and simutaneously placed Bebe in a position where he will be required to use nukes to get the job done. The USA has denied Isreal our non nuke bunker busters and overflight of Iraq. That can still be done , defeating the IFF but Isreal will launch nukes, knowing that you get but one chance to kill the king.
The world has never aided the Jews save the USA (up until now) and the Jews know a sell out. That sell out will draw us into the war, not because it’s the right thing to do, but for oil.
The Persians and the Arabs want world domination, the Great Califphate. War is now a certainty since B. Hussein 0bama has joined his native tribe. We will all pay more that just for a TARP plan. This is going to be very ugly because of the man-boy.
Mar 20, 2009 - 6:58 pm 17. JFSanders:You are right Blert. Cause this clown show we are watching couldn’t shock and awe my grandmaw.
Just caught this off the net. Sorry for the C&P.
Chinese Cowboys to try El Diablo
“By Belinda Cao
March 20 (Bloomberg) — China will develop its derivatives market and introduce interest-rate options even though problems in that market triggered the global financial crisis, said Liu Shiyu, deputy governor of the People’s Bank of China.
“If we don’t develop our over-the-counter market for derivatives as early as possible, we may find ourselves lagging behind once the global financial crisis bottoms out,” Liu told a forum in Beijing today. “We should shift from a government- led to a more market-oriented mechanism to encourage financial products innovation.” ”
Jim
Mar 20, 2009 - 7:03 pm 18. JFSanders:OOps! Link: Chinese try to ride El Diablo
Mar 20, 2009 - 7:04 pm 19. JFSanders:Sorry, will go back to drinking my 151 and coke…Fail
Jim (who sucks at html)
Mar 20, 2009 - 7:06 pm 20. Lifeofthemind:JFSanders,
Mar 20, 2009 - 7:19 pm 21. Habu:The chinese actually listened when the economics professors told them that markets provide information and that government needs accurate information to prepare for future events. They are not democrats and have abandoned the Rousseauean Utopian Socialist ideology underlaying Communism. They are non-charismatic fascists. Obama and the Democrats on the other hand are still committed to dreams of reforming the General Will to perfect humanity. They do not like markets because they do not want inconvenient truths. BHO believes in the power of his words to transform the crude reality that markets reflect. Words are all he ever had.
B Hussien has joined his tribe and Bebe now has no choice but to attack. He’ll be forced to use nukes since we denied the Jews the use of our best bunker busters, and you only get one chance to kill the king. The ME will be in turmoil once again, each Arab nation piling on the Jews they have so wanted to do for so long.
We, of course, will be drawn in for the oil while the world gets to withness the dénouement of Adolfs work via our own poltroon Hussien 0bama.
The Caliphate may indeed out breed and overcome us all. So say the demographics.
Mar 20, 2009 - 7:20 pm 22. Habu:OK , OK we hear you …sorry for the double message
Mar 20, 2009 - 7:24 pm 23. hdgreene:I don’t see much by way of systematic thought going into the current administration’s foreign policy — beyond trashing what was done before (and alienating a lot of his own country in the process). First, they were trying to get the Russians to help with Iran by indicating they were willing to sell the East Europeans down the river. Vlad the Putin made the offer public but since Russia has no interest in a nuclear tipped Iran we had a good chance of getting their help. But now, with this public approach to the mullahs, it looks like he was trying to get the Russians to play the heavy against Iran while he gets the glory for an agreement.
There is an Iranian election coming (in June, I think) and this message could be seen as favoring Ahmadinejad, since being a nut apparently has no down side. Talks also play to an Iranian strength, which is deceit. And how long can Israel tread water?
This will also help the Iranian economy. Sanctions will remain but their purpose now will be to provide an excuse for a poor economy in Iran. Meanwhile the Europeans will be doing all sorts of business with them, so the mullahs will be able to keep their patronage systems running.
They say the hen is the wisest of God’s creatures because she doesn’t cluck until after she lays the egg. Well, President Obama’s doing a lot of clucking to call attention to all the eggs he’s laying. They will likely get stepped on and scrambled.
President Obama’s “engagement/elopement” with the Mullahs tells me a bunch of naive punks at the State Department are going to play at Middle East “realpolitik” and make nice-nice to all the local toughs. America, prepare to have your lunch money stolen and your nose bloodied — and maybe much worse.
Mar 20, 2009 - 7:43 pm 24. Lifeofthemind:Habu,
Since you are repeating yourself I give you Admiral Morrison’s son.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Otkw2uCVEaE
The Admiral was on record as being eager to attack Israel after the Liberty incident.
Mar 20, 2009 - 7:43 pm 25. Jimmy:Marie Claude:
I read the piece at your link. I don’t see anything in it that suggests the Russians are broke, in fact it seems the opposite. From what I can tell the heavies in the Russian arms industry are not interested in selling to anyone because the Russian gov’t is their newest and biggest customer. Didn’t the Russian Pres just announce a rearming of the Russian military?
Mar 20, 2009 - 9:22 pm 26. blert:Jimmy @25…
The Russians have a crashing currency, crashing stock market, crashing credit market, and a general flight of capital.
Her steel industry is on half rations. Entire factory towns are idle.
Modern military systems are steeped in electronics and Russia has lost that race to just about everybody.
She’s been punked by the present.
She’ll be super punked by tomorrow: a collapse in military age males also means a body blow to the factory floor.
Get your fork out, she’s done.
Mar 20, 2009 - 9:27 pm 27. JFSanders:Yep, and Putin is going to pay them with a devalued Ruble. Imagine that…
Jim
Mar 20, 2009 - 9:28 pm 28. Utopia Parkway:Is there an Iranian opposition? I don’t remember them being hosted at the Bush White House either. Whoever they are they aren’t the solution to our problems.
To a certain extent it doesn’t seem odd for a new administration of the opposite party to try new things in various policies. O has almost defined himself as the anti-Bush. He’s going to press the reset button and start over with Iran and other issues. How will these things end up? We’ll see.
The Israeli Chief of Staff, Ashkenazi, was apparently in Washington last week to discuss Iran. No one in authority there would speak with him. He went home early.
The NYT quote seems a little over the top. While the issues mentioned in the article are true, Israel doesn’t have much support after its war in Gaza, I haven’t noticed anything in the Israeli press suggesting that they think the sky is falling. I don’t read about them facing a terrible diplomatic crisis.
Assuming that Bibi will come to the rescue is premature. He’s remembered in Israel for talking big and then signing the Wye agreement and giving Hebron to the Pals. He’s also seen as caring more about Bibi than anything else. We’ll see.
There was an interview with retired US ambassador to the UN Kalilzaid in Ha’aretz this week. In that interview he more-or-less said that the US forced Israel to stop its offensive in Gaza.
It’s going to be an interesting year.
Mar 20, 2009 - 9:34 pm 29. Gaffe Prices:OK, the only way for this to work is if Obama is even more clever and crafty than he already thinks he is: namely, that by giving the Mullahs a false sense of security, he can bring stronger forces to bear if they, indeed take the bait, and then err by reneging on any good faith *new* gestures coming from D.C since the courageous re- gathering of newly elected politicos convened on the port side of the ship of state to garner the gravitational pull to get the boat to veer that direction.
In your last paragraph, wretchard, you source indications that Iran’s government has already called Obamas bluff, leaving him managing to out-psyche only himself. (You sure did your homework, wretch)
FYI, Over at Rossett Report, she’s taking a good back alley beating over her post on this point, *Odd*, when the troll booth belches its brigade of “army” of “defenders”, they pool where they think the resistance is thinnest, with all the attendant histrionic charges of “rascism” and such, which is ironic considering this courageous “find, beat and kick the girl in yet another selfless display of still more “courage” from the “opposition. So, if you get a spark of chivalry, check out my inteligence report compiled there from deep behind the enemas lines
Mar 20, 2009 - 10:13 pm 30. dtmack:In the old times Mariners maps would cover unexplored territory with a notation like “Here there be Dragons”.
We’re all crew members on a ship, captained by someone who doesn’t even know how to read a compass, and we’re heading directly into that area with no option to turn back. The problem is, there really are Dragons out there.
I sincerely hope that Israel doesn’t attack Iran, because the game’s up if that happens. Especially if nukes are involved. There’s no way anything that would result from that could be contained.
I hope that somehow, maybe because of rather than in spite of Obamas ineptness, we manage to muddle through the next couple of years without a general war. Maybe with all of these peace feelers everyone will try to wait things out to get more concessions. Maybe a global economic collapse will focus people locally rather than Internationally, or maybe we’re doomed. I don’t know.
The thought of facing a tense International crisis with this crew at the helm is too discouraging to contemplate. I’ve seen some references to N. Chamberlain, and they’re apt, but we have no realistic prospect of replacing Chamberlain with Churchill (even if we had one)until 2012. So we need to get this world to that point in one piece.
Mar 21, 2009 - 1:15 am 31. Marie Claude:Jimmy, just like blert said, Russia is playing the poker bluff with America and Europe, her bad economical situation may-be explain the late Putin discourse praising America to no give up capitalism, and in term I think that Russia will come closer to Europe too, umm Chineses are their antic borders invadors
Mar 21, 2009 - 5:37 am 32. what is occupation:Here is how I read it…
Iran, Syria, Hamas, Hezbollah, Fatah (PA), NKorea, Russia all think they are winning…
Iran has re-armed Hezbollah now with 50k rockets, Hezbollah has taken over 20% of Lebanon & it’s government, Lebanon has dammed water to Israel without so much as a UN parking ticket. Hezbollah is now being welcomed in ENGLAND as a legit political force…
Syria has upped it’s tank and antiaircraft defenses supplied by Russia (via iran) (once again Russia has sold several billions in worthless junk to the arabs/persians which are going to be destroyed and Russia will rearm and sell them once again at inflated prices) Russia is building 2 new naval ports, one in syria and one in the big fat boy Hugo’s ass…. Syria got away with building an almost functional NUKE plant (with the help of Nkor and Iran) without ANY RESPONSE from the UN let alone the world… Now Syria has derailed most of the Cedar revolution…
High tech russian weapon systems are now in Hezbollah’s hands (land to sea, night vision, and hezbollah now tapping into camera systems at the airports to completely having independent cable phone systems), Iran is getting the reactor completed, as WELL AS the Plutonium reactor that no one talks about that everyone knows about… Not to mention even the IAEA states that Iran has 1/3 MORE low enriched Uranium that thought.. couple that with a solid fuel rockets to put in orbit satellites… Can anyone say EMP??????
Hamas has survived to murder more Jews another day (thanks olmert and condi (that russian expert that predicted nothing about putin & company)) and still holds control on the gaza strip all the while now stockpiling advanced grad rockets (from iran)…
Do we need to continue to list the examples?
Russia still sits in ossetia….
China still holds Tibet.
But now enter the Big O…. the Messiah…. the Kumbya King…..
Let’s Offer 20 MIllion for refugee resettlement from gaza to the usa…
Let’s offer 900 Million for rebuilding gaza (only after the offer was made did Billery add the requirement (at the insistence of US Congressmen) to recognize Israel as a State…
Let’s review… the PA (abbas) still doesn’t recognize Israel as a Jewish State….
Gitmo is being closed and some Gitmo ex-residents may be released into the USA
There is no illegal aliens in America anymore, there are all undocumented workers and have civil rights and benefits
Why should the collective enemies of America NOT be thinking they are winning..
The Big O is their DREAM….
An American Leader that actually doesn’t not see greatness in America, the wishes America live within it’s 4% world profile that it is….
But there is one wild card that all of the above under estimate…
Israel…
As the USA leaves the Jews to die at the hands of the Islamic hoards at it’s borders, as the islamic death cults buy weapons of mass destruction in some orgasmic dream of genocide, as EUROPE replete with guilt from their murder of millions of Jews transfer that guilt into appeasement of islamic forces within their borders… as Europe burns, as England bows to Dhimmihude, as an Islamic rights leader in America BEHEAD his wife….
as Sudan throws out international aid groups, and the Arab league fails to condemn the Darfur situation…
As Durban II heats up and the entire world pushes Israel into Fortress Israel I have a news flash…
The collective, ball-less, spineless, pussies that call themselves the world can go f**K themselves if you think that the Israelis will allow them to be offered up on the sacrficial podium to appease the barbaric death cults that seem to rule the world…
Israel has seen the death camps, they know they are real…
They have seen their young kids heads beaten flat with rocks for the simple crime of being…
They have seen how THOUSANDS of rockets fired at their civilians on a daily basis draws nothing by a sigh from the collective world community
They have seen boycotts, water being cut off, stabbings, suicide bombers, kidnappings, mutilations, being shunned by the entire world…
and guess what?
They don’t give a shit…..
Bibi will lead… Israel has proved they want peace and has been rewarded by the world (let alone the islamic death cults) with scorn, violence and threats….
Leaving Gaza, Lebanon has proved that the concept of Land for Peace is bankrupt…
Peace for Peace, or it will be Violence for Violence…
The world never seems to understand the depth of the depravity of the fascists/socialists but I can tell you, that the MAJORITY of Israeli’s are not willing to lay down and DIE for the sake of world appeasement/peace…
the window is closing soon….
as the world bullies up to Israel, Israel will feel quite alone…
They have been there before… Many times…
Let’s us all remember that Israeli Operation Opera that bombed the Iraqi Osirak reactor in 1981 and how the USA, the UN and World treated Israel after that situation
Yes nothing has changed…
and Israel knows it…
Mar 21, 2009 - 7:24 am 33. twobyfour:31. Marie Claude
Chineses are their antic borders invadors
Hope you don’t mind…
Chinese are their ancient borders invaders.
I am used to it, I have a Russian friend and do it all the time when we chat.
Speaking of which (Chinese), they do it nowadays by stealth, not by army, populating quietly remote Siberian expanses.
Maybe it qualifies for Chinese antics?
Mar 21, 2009 - 7:33 am 34. Jimmy:I am aware of all the factors you guys mention WRT the Russian economy, however, what explains the actions of the Russian arms companies in that article? Sure doesn’t seem like they care too much about drumming up business to me. Something isn’t right there. Perhaps they know something we don’t?
Mar 21, 2009 - 7:54 am 35. Jimmy:Blert,
All of that may be true, but judging by the article it seems as though the opposite is true. Businesses tend to suck up to the people with the highest potential of paying out, so please explain, if in deed you did read that article.
Mar 21, 2009 - 8:00 am 36. Marie Claude:twobyfour, it’s OK, thanks, my memory connection sometime fails
Mar 21, 2009 - 8:21 am 37. twobyfour:@ 35. Jimmy
General malaise. Despite government puffed up PR, Russians know Russia is sick. They don’t know what’s next, but have a feeling it ain’t pretty. Very prevalent mood in today’s Russia. So, they collect their salaries, that is the scope what they care about at the moment.
Mar 21, 2009 - 8:21 am 38. Barry 0351:LOL we quit fighting and cannot fathom why the enemy of all we represent and believe in won’t admit they’ve won and stop fighting what a joke!
Mar 21, 2009 - 10:11 am 39. Barry 0351:“please stop kicking us Iran we quit fighting!”
“Oh UN make them stop, whaaaaa!”
50 years and USA will be governed by Islam.
I expect the next big military action will be regime change in Israel for the palistinian’s by US and UN forces.
Mar 21, 2009 - 10:18 am 40. twobyfour:@ 39. Barry
Not on this urdth. TOTUS would simply not get involved, dices fall as they may. UN would be suicidal, they may issue resolution after resolution, but it has no boots to put on the ground, let alone in an assured meat grinder.
Yes. WW X is coming but not that way.
Mar 21, 2009 - 11:06 am 41. Walt:what is occupation @32
Could not agree more. I have stated elsewhere in this thread, (#6) that Bibi will throw down the hammer before the summer is out. And then it all depends on Arab reaction. If the Arab states move against Israel, then there will be general war. If no reaction, then it will be Osirak II, with another period of false peace leading to the next crisis. And so it goes.
Mar 21, 2009 - 4:00 pm 42. buddy larsen:UP/28; The Israeli Chief of Staff, Ashkenazi, was apparently in Washington last week to discuss Iran. No one in authority there would speak with him. He went home early.
World history pivots on the inner workings of the best minds in the new admin’s foreign policy section, minds which finished college in the last few years, really digging those cool Arafat tablecloth headresses.
Mar 22, 2009 - 7:18 am 43. Wadeusaf:The essential difference was that America no longer wants regime change. It wants behavior change.
Wow, these perceptions are not all that they appear to be. I think the difference is that the past Administration was searching for a carrot to lure the enemy within reach of the stick, while the current Administration has asked the enemy to please hold the stick while it retrieves the carrot and tries to figure out how to replace it with honey and tar and not get itself stuck.
Mar 22, 2009 - 10:35 amSorry, comments for this entry are closed at this time.