A military analyst from the Examiner believes the chances of successfully intercepting a North Korean missile scheduled to be fired are “very good”, technically speaking. But politically, the intercept has no chance of happening at all. Former Spook comments, “Unfortunately, American political will is sorely lacking. Secretary of State Clinton rejected the intercept option earlier this week, saying that the U.S. will address the launch “through the appropriate channels.” In other words, we’ll run it through the U.N. Security Council, which will (probably) pass another meaningless resolution.”
U.S. and Japanese defenses have a high probability of success, if they are ordered to shoot down a North Korean ballistic missile that is currently being prepared for launch. That’s the assessment of a senior defense industry executive who is a veteran of the missile defense program. In an interview with Examiner.com, he said odds for a successful intercept are “very good,” based the availability of “layered” missile defenses, continued technological improvements, and Pyongyang’s planned launch window. …
Earlier this week, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said the United States had no plans to intercept the North Korean missile. If Pyongyang persists with its launch plans, Mrs. Clinton said the U.S. will “take up the matter through appropriate channels.”
Washington’s apparent reluctance to consider military options has created consternation among our allies in the region, particularly the Japanese. “Rest assured, they’d rather not have been put in this position” [by U.S. inaction], the defense executive commented.
He also suggested that the American military has been somewhat confused by the administration’s handling of the latest North Korean crisis. The expert said that recent comments by Admiral Timothy Keating, commander of U.S. forces in the Pacific, seemed to be both a statement of our capabilities and a veiled request for guidance.
The VOA confirms that although the US considers the North Korean launch “troubling”, it will not stop the launch. “A Japanese newspaper says North Korea is preparing to launch a short or medium-range missile in addition to a long-range rocket it plans to fire in early April. U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates says while he finds North Korea’s actions “troubling,” the United States has no plans to stop them. … “‘I think if we had an aberrant missile, one that was headed for Hawaii or something like that, we might consider it, but I do not think we have any plans to do anything like that at this point,’ said Robert Gates.”
The allies have threatened North Korea with further diplomatic action. “Japan, South Korea and the United States have threatened to press for fresh U.N. sanctions if North Korea follows through on its tests.” Fox News reported Secretary Gates as lamenting
the futility of diplomatic efforts toward North Korea and Iran, another nation with nuclear ambitions. Despite the Obama administration’s talk of ramping up diplomatic overtures toward Tehran, Gates was pessimistic about that strategy. “Frankly, from my perspective, the opportunity for success is probably more in economic sanctions in both places than it is in diplomacy,” Gates said. “What gets them to the table is economic sanctions.”





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33 Comments
1. Lifeofthemind:Obama has vowed to “cut unproven technologies”. The last thing he wants to do is prove the technologies by allowing them to actually be tested under battlefield conditions.
Mar 29, 2009 - 2:09 pm 2. rabidfox:An American success based on technology championed by Republicans — no way that the lite bringer allow that!!!
Mar 29, 2009 - 2:11 pm 3. Lifeofthemind:The answer should have been, “Who owns this problem? North Korea does and I will repeat what has been the stated policy of the United States for over 50 years. Any launch of a ballistic missile towards the territory of the United States or one of our allies shall be treated as a hostile attack and may be responded to with the full strategic power of the United States in a time and manner of our own choosing.”
Mar 29, 2009 - 2:17 pm 4. Walt:Waltradamus speak not only elliptically, but to wrong thread. His bad.
Dear leader’s missiles will inflate
The danger faced by neighbor state
While mullahs watch the tension grow
And wonder when the thing will blow
A sailor says if missile stray
And come by chance Hawaii’s way
He will give order once to shoot
But DC override and scoot
The Pashtun border will be drawn
With Afghan leader as its pawn
Drones and worker bees will fly
And predators will fill the sky
Anointed one will seek address
Mar 29, 2009 - 2:24 pm 5. Barnabus:With ophthalmologist to press
The region’s health and wonder why
They cannot both see eye to eye
Gates said WHAT? lol…”I think if we had an aberrant missile, one that was headed for Hawaii or something like that, we might consider it…” so lemme get this straight…If a missile is headed to Hawaii we assume it is “aberrant” and not an intentional act and we “might” consider knocking it down. LOL. I guess Mohammed Atta was aberrant in his flying skills and was going for JFK. I realize that Hawaii is only a little state but what does Gates need to decide that maybe, just maybe he might want to protect it. You can’t make this stuff up.
Mar 29, 2009 - 2:29 pm 6. blert:Well at least Kim is not selling submarines to Tommy Lee Jones.
Look on the bright side…
But don’t look at the flash!
Mar 29, 2009 - 2:32 pm 7. Paul Milenkovic:Why would we want to shoot it down and disclose our capability?
Kind of like Sarge kicking his troops in the backside to follow orders and maintain fire discipline. If there is a legitimate target under the ROE, yes, fire your weapon, but even then there are reasons to follow orders to hold fire. One reason is the simple one of following orders because there are things known to command not known to the rifleman. The other reason is not to give away your position with the muzzle flash.
Mar 29, 2009 - 2:44 pm 8. 49erDweet:Three score and seven years ago warlords of another Asian nation miscalculated our intentions because that former US administration gave off “fuzzy” signs and confusing statements. So they were adjudged by people living life on the edge to be soft and easy, a push-over.
Its a great comfort to me that administrations since then have learned that lesson and no longer allow a potential neer-do-well to think the US is not interested in taking military action to thwart offensive or provocative gambits.
Why are so many of you laughing?
Mar 29, 2009 - 2:56 pm 9. Michelle Renee:Barnabus #5: Maybe if Obama was born in Hawaii he’d have a stake in protecting it from North Korea. As it is, Li’l Kim better not aim that Taepodong-2 at Kenya.
Mar 29, 2009 - 2:59 pm 10. Habu:I have watched the world closely over the last fifty years given that I knew pilots flying missions in Korea and secret missions over China. I have watched African colonialism dismantled fifty years too soon, which simply produced a supperating continent.
Why don’t we take full advantage internationally of the Chief Residents domestic policy of not wasting a crisis.
Afghanistan = crisis. Solution. irradiate the tribal areas.
Iran = crisis. Solution. Aid The Jews in oblterating Iranian nuclear sites.
North Korea = crisis Solution. Starve then to death.
It isn’t the actions of a superpower to allow nations that have no value to humanity and to tweak their noses decade after decade.
Yes, I know the people of N.K have no say and live in a martial world but that is the way of history. Why do we support them with food and medical supplies.
Great nations must exercise power if they are to remain great and not be bled out by a thousand cuts. Once you have done any of the above the yipping second and third tier nations will recalibrate how much they want to tweak our nose.
Naturally the contra argument is that truly great nations extend a helping hand to humanity and raise mankind to knew heights. Well, we’ve done that in every manner possible, with more money and national treasure than all previous nations in the history of mankind. Personally I’m tired of getting my hand bitten by those we help.
Time to settle some nagging yet developing problems that are becoming close to changing the entire world calculus by virtue of WMD’s.
Mar 29, 2009 - 3:02 pm 11. Matt Beck (Man of the West):Pay now or let your grandchildren shoulder the burden.
I had to blink twice to make sure I read this correctly. Robert Gates, the U.S. Secretary of Defense, said that if a aberrant missile were heading for Hawaii (one of the 50 states, for those of you who went to the Hillary Rodham Clinton School of Geography), we might consider shooting it down? This is outrageous. A lack of moral conviction of this magnitude ought to be grounds for dismissal. Perhaps Gates himself already foresees that the whole thing won’t be his problem very much longer.
On the larger subject, the lack of political will to deal harshly with North Korea is an ossified feature of the post-war geopolitical order which probably will not change until many other things do as well. Uncorking the malice behind the DMZ would be ruinous to millions unless America was prepared to militarily defend South Korea and Japan, which would mean an air-and-sea battle with China over the surrounding oceans. This scenario would quickly escalate into WWIII; and although it may perhaps be inevitable at some point, it could be prudent to defer it for now.
The resulting stalemate has enabled the Kim Dynasty to achieve something very few ever have: the successful resistance of encroachment by Western world powers. For this reason alone does the regime still enjoy the support of its longsuffering subjects. For this reason alone is it tolerated by the Chinese and even the Russians. It functions as a garrison of hope for Maoist sentiment; a sort of pan-Asian Osgiliath arrayed against the forces of the West. Implicitly, we know (and they know) that we cannot take North Korea without taking the continent, which is impossible.
Therefore, North Korea is a purely symbolic, not a strategic, thorn in our side. The U.S. has no strategic interests on the Korean peninsula any longer; but, like the “two small clouds” of Lord Kelvin, it represents a recalcitrant lump in our otherwise smoothly functioning imperium. The conflict is ideological in nature, and we all know what happened when those two small clouds were investigated.
Mar 29, 2009 - 3:15 pm 12. Willie G:“The expert said that recent comments by Admiral Timothy Keating, commander of U.S. forces in the Pacific, seemed to be both a statement of our capabilities and a veiled request for guidance.”
There will be no guidance forthcoming, because as the Brits discovered when they called – there is no one home to take the call.
“Smart Power” indeed.
Mar 29, 2009 - 3:21 pm 13. Bonzo:In one week, Japan could build what NK devoted everything to make/buy. In 12 months SK could do the same.
If only there was a free nation, marked for destruction and ruin by every elite, who’s smart “yout’s” could outdo Kim. That would be scary.
Mar 29, 2009 - 3:27 pm 14. Roy Lofquist:The great danger here is not war but the collapse of NK. The Chinese and South Korea dread the thought of 23 million hostile, starving refugees flooding across the borders.
Mar 29, 2009 - 3:41 pm 15. sirius_sir:The Korean Peninsula is one theatre of (non-)operation from which we should perhaps consider withdrawing. No sense getting caught in a crossfire.
We tell the South Koreans, the Japanese, and Chinese that N.K. is now their problem entire–have at it.
Mar 29, 2009 - 4:04 pm 16. Alexis:RL:
War or not, 23 million starving refugees flooding across South Korea’s (and China’s and Russia’s) borders is a high likelihood. The rational response would be to plan for such a contingency rather than cave in to NK demands out of a fear of such a contingency.
Mar 29, 2009 - 4:09 pm 17. Charles:Japanese AEGIS destroyers leave port to confront N.Korea missile (breaking video footage)
I’m pretty sure the US has sold anti missle missle to the Japanese.
You don’t hear the US saying the Japanese can’t control their airspace. You only hear that if the missle get to hawaii the US might do something.
However, in order for the missle to get to hawaii they have to fly over Japanese airspace.
Not likely the Japanese will allow that.
Mar 29, 2009 - 4:24 pm 18. E. Nigma:Ambiguity and nuance. (Just think if John Kerry got the job instead of Hillary!). These are the hallmarks of the new smart “softpower” now being deployed by the newer, fresher American foreign policy. I’m sure that the Japanese are impressed, can’t you tell? Glad the adults are in charge.
Mar 29, 2009 - 4:28 pm 19. Charles:Then again, the NK missile may fizzle on the pad, and all this knashing of teeth may be unnecessary.
Japan Prepares for North Korea Missile Launch (Deployment Photos)
Mar 29, 2009 - 4:44 pm 20. ExDemocrat:So now the US has degraded to the hope strategy. Hope is doesn’t hit us.
Mar 29, 2009 - 4:55 pm 21. bear1909:Not particularly a fan of quasi-erudite discussions on blogs.
Be forewarned- RANT on.
Non-issue. If the sawed off little miscreant shoots his wad, then the Japanese will take it out.
The wild-card? A US Tomahawk strike. That move was telegraphed last week by Dhimmicrats
of all people. What was the MSM’s reaction.
Rescue me if i am wrong: neuter that little pupsteak in NK and let his people rot. Chip acquired
will be removing A-Jad’s partner in missle insanity.
While we are at it: when/if NK launches, assasinate Al-Sadr over there in Iraq’s Mookie town.
Take two of A-jad’s big buddies off the table.
Cocky little pricks.
A thousand cuts indeed.
I like the fact that the Sudan convoy got smoked. This low tech crap the Hezbollocks and Hamas
are fighting with doesnt stand a chance against Mossad Intel and the political guts (thank you Israel)
to torch these morons in their tracks.
Once lil bHo in the White House is smoked out as an impostor it will be time to run the table
against the global jihad beginning with turning the American mosque into roach motels. Infiltrate
and exterminate. End the religious worker visa. Put the National Guard on the border with orders to
shoot to kill.
Take away the Liliputian factor and dont look back. No one ever granted America sovereignty. We took it
from Britain— and we have had to fight to keep it ever since. Screw the UN. Deport it wholesale and stop funding those jamokes. Demolish the building. Send the debris and the Security Council as a gift to Uganda.
A guy can wish, can’t he?
By the way, if you dont have at least half of your retirement savings (out of the little that is left) in gold by the end of this quarter (June 09) you are missing a great opportunity to survive as a member of the middle class (assuming you aren’t a member of the investment class). All the warning signals are in place for tsunami level impact of hyper inflation. That means your money will be virtually worthless by end of the year. Once the Greenback goes to printing press any dollar holding American will be royally screwed in their exit port. I kid you not.
I dont wear tin foil. And I have studied and studied and analyzed and followed this trail of tears since Bill Clinton’s re-election. Get in before it is too late. No matter how small a position…..get some. You’ve been warned.
/rant OFF
Bear1909 out.
Mar 29, 2009 - 5:02 pm 22. RWE:Back in the early 60’s the USAF had a program underway called the GAM-87 Skybolt. It was an advanced concept that has yet to deployed anywhere, an air-launched ballistic missile. A B-52 could carry 4 Skybolts. Great Britian even planned to equip its rather old V-bomber force with the missiles.
President Kennedy announced that the Skybolt program was being cancelled because it had been proven that it would not work. That same day a Skybolt flew a perfect test mission. The two news items appeared simultaneously.
That incident changed the way news releases were done in the DoD. The Skybolt program is long forgotten in DC, but you can be sure that one lesson learned from it has not.
Mar 29, 2009 - 5:23 pm 23. Thrasymachus:I don’t know if this is cool or not, but somebody had to do it-
Mar 29, 2009 - 5:42 pm 24. Thrasymachus:I was trying to put up the excerpt of Hans Blix confronting Kim Jong Il in “Team America World Police.” Easy to find on YouTube if you want to laugh between the tears.
Mar 29, 2009 - 5:44 pm 25. Subotai Bahadur:Since January 20, 2009 the United States has been signalling to all of the world as loudly as it can that the United States has no intention of defending itself or any country that believes that it is an ally of the United States.
If this launch does end up posing some sort of threat to Japan and/or South Korea; they and every country that has depended on us as a military ally will have to rethink their security situation. Japan is believed to be able to assemble a credible nuclear deterrent with a few turns of a wrench.
South Korea has long has the means to begin building its own nukes. In 1976 it cancelled its nuclear weapons program and signed the Non-Proliferation Treaty solely to preserve its defense relationship with the US. If that relationship no longer can be relied on, the only rational response is to restart the program.
Similarly, there have been recurrent rumors that Taiwan has the ability to produce [or has produced] nuclear weapons. Its program was officially shut down in 1993 at the demand of William Jefferson Clinton. Still, looking at the development of indigenous Taiwanese missiles; the CEP’s and ranges of several models make no sense with conventional warheads. However, for counter-value targeting with nuclear weapons they make perfect sense. It is noted that Taiwan was deeply involved in defense coordination and weapons production with both Israel and pre-Mandala South Africa. Both partners developed nuclear weapons [South Africa destroyed theirs] and Taiwanese physicists [who helped us develop weapons during the Cold War]were deeply involved.
If the US defense guarantee has no factual value, a sense of self-preservation means that smaller nations are going to either look for the modern equivalent of Sam Colt’s equalizer, or to make whatever accomodation they can with the United States’ enemies.
The world has become a far more dangerous place in the last 68 days. And it is only the beginning.
Nothing lasts forever but the Earth and Sky.
Subotai Bahadur
Mar 29, 2009 - 5:45 pm 26. blert:I’ve got that on DVD…
The best part is the self-lamentation of Kim: I’m So Ronry… it’s a stitch.
Mar 29, 2009 - 5:47 pm 27. whiskey:What this says is:
1. There are no limits to attacks on the US that will not be tolerate. IF a missile hits Honolulu, the US MIGHT send a sharply worded letter of regret.
That’s about it.
2. Japan is on it’s own.
3. South Korea and Taiwan are on their own.
4. The US has ceded the Pacific because Obama and Dems hate the military.
5. Neither Obama nor Dems would respond to any attack on the US by almost any enemy. Being religiously motivated in the UN, “diplomacy” and various feminized responses violence.
A more complete collapse of America culturally, economically, and militarily, through complete feminization of nearly every aspect of political culture, could not be imagined.
Naturally Japan will nuke up and have to create it’s own navy, a whacking great big one, to protect itself and it’s commercial interests. WHAT COULD GO WRONG THERE?
Naturally, South Korea, Taiwan, and Vietnam will nuke up too, as will Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines. WHAT could go wrong with that, either?
Obama, Hillary, and the rest of the deeply feminized fools that respond to violence and threats with obeisance are only going to encourage more violence. In ever greater cycles, until we lose a few cities.
Mar 29, 2009 - 5:55 pm 28. E. Nigma:Whiskey,
You got that right. The lion is not about to lay down with lamb, at least not in the near future. If America continues to signal ambiguity, nuance and similar pusilaminity in the face of the tinhorns of NoKo, what will the reaction be to China (our big creditor buddy) when they flex some muscle? Not every one in the world wants to bend over and grab their ankles and take it… well, you know.
The statement by Gates is incredible. But as Insta-Reynolds is wont to sarcastically say these days,”The country is in the very best of hands.”
The Taiwanese and South Koreans pretty much loathe the Japanese (as a group), but that may not preclude them from making a techno-military alliance in the near future. Japan has gotten a lot of US anti-missile technology, probably because of that cowboy Bush.
I wonder what the Obama Administration would think of THAT? The world beginning to fractionate into dissolute power blocks?
Mar 29, 2009 - 6:13 pm 29. programmer:I would blame Bush first, if I was Obama.
OT – maybe…
Space wars
Mar 29, 2009 - 6:19 pm 30. Triton'sPolarTiger:OT – http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0309/20625.html
Am I overreacting to say that a massive line has just been crossed?
Mar 29, 2009 - 8:19 pm 31. twobyfour:@ 28 E Nigma
The Taiwanese and South Koreans pretty much loathe the Japanese
SKors yes, Taiwanese, no. Formosa was in Japanese hands from 1895 to end of WWII and in general, that period was a time of prosperity, and is well regarded by Taiwanese historians. Many indigenous Taiwanese fought on side of Japan, FYI.
Mar 29, 2009 - 8:28 pm 32. Dave:Indigenous Taiwanese are not Chinese and Kuomintang invasion was not readily accepted. The tensions between indigenous population and invaders were present until recently with the rise of nationalism (e.g. Taiwanese of Chinese origin considering themselves Taiwanese) and reconciliation of both groups.
Im here in Japan. AEGIS cruisers of the US and Japanese navies have left port from Sasebo and patriot missile systems have been deployed around certain parts of the country.
The TV news media and Japanese government are also preparing the public for the potential of that missile being shot down.
Mar 30, 2009 - 3:11 am 33. always right:Many indigenous Taiwanese fought on side of Japan, FYI.
Under Japanese rule, Taiwanese were second class citizens. And those who fought on the sice of Japan? One word, conscripted. Women, too, as camp followers. Tons of them.
Hated was the word. As for nowadays, there is still deep down mis-trust agasint the Japanese.
Mar 31, 2009 - 9:19 amSorry, comments for this entry are closed at this time.