92 Comments

1. Ken:

“And we’ll send you a letter, telling you how very angry we are.”

Apr 5, 2009 - 1:20 am 2. Caton:

The likely outcome is more launches. Japan did not shoot down the North Korean missile: they were scared by the NorKer threats. Japan has no credibility any more.

Apr 5, 2009 - 1:33 am 3. Rob:

Japan will build its own nukes. And soon.

Apr 5, 2009 - 1:34 am 4. Chiral:

“the likely outcome of a diplomatic offensive to make North Korea pay for its missile launch is nothing”

ie. war. North Korea can be defeated with American air power. China will happily be summoned to rebuild and perhaps unify the Koreas into “New Korea” or something similar.

Apr 5, 2009 - 1:48 am 5. Pajamas Media » North Korea Launches Missile: UN Security Council Likely To Do Nothing:

[...] Read the entire piece here. [...]

Apr 5, 2009 - 1:49 am 6. Lifeofthemind:

This is like the plot of some bad comedy in which some hapless mope is sitting in Court watching his Public Defenders do a very bad imitation of Tracey and Hepburn by having a big melt down spat in front of the Judge and Jury so that they end up shredding their own case before the Prosecution gets a chance to.

KIm of Norkia is getting very very frustrated at our failure to take him seriously and now he is wondering just what he has to do to get our attention.

Apr 5, 2009 - 2:15 am 7. jim in virginia:

LOTM, you’re half right. Li’l Kim certainly wants attention. I see the launch as advertising: Anyone want to buy our missile technology?
Bush 43 threatened the Norks but did not act, but I believe in the crunch he would have tried to intercept the missile.
Reagan would have hit the launch pad with a tomahawk, and said nothing. (Must have been an accident.)
Hillary and Obama have no clue what to do.

Apr 5, 2009 - 2:50 am 8. Starling:

Is this the crisis to which Biden cryptically referred during election season?

Apr 5, 2009 - 3:39 am 9. wretchard:

Is this the crisis to which Biden cryptically referred during election season?

My guess is that Biden was speaking in general, after being briefed on the multiple threats facing the country. It was reasonable for him to conjecture that something was going to pose a challenge. In that context, the challenge facing the Obama administration is not to become a prisoner to their preferred repertoire. They can’t become too predictable, responding according to a default model of diplomacy because thugs like Kim are going to keep pushing the door open until they hit a check.

What’s really needed is response outside of the bimodal distribution of war and peace. There’s got to be something in between a “diplomatic offensive” and war on the Korean peninsula; hard enough to give Kim pause but not drastic enough to plunge the world into a bloodbath. By pre-surrendering — announcing a diplomatic response and declaring they wouldn’t shoot down the missile — the administration deprived itself of even the ability to bluff. The real danger is that Kim may be led to believe that the US is now unimodal — capable only of squeaking to the UNSC. In that case, the Dear Leader may miscalculate. Maybe not, but if he does, it wouldn’t be the first time in history that someone left the safe door open and some bandido took the chance of putting his hand in.

Apr 5, 2009 - 4:13 am 10. Roy Lofquist:

Catchy tune.

Apr 5, 2009 - 4:32 am 11. SAF:

I can understand them launching a rocket. I can understand not shooting it down. What I don’t get is why the West keeps giving these guys aid?

Apr 5, 2009 - 4:43 am 12. jim in virginia:

“it wouldn’t be the first time in history that someone left the safe door open and some bandido took the chance of putting his hand in.”
Wretchard- as I recall in 1950 the US Sec State made a public speech defining the US defensive perimeter. It included Taiwan and Japan but excluded the Korean peninsula. A few weekslater the North Koreans invaded the South. “Well,you told us….”

It’s also alleged that April Glaspie told Saddam Hussein in 1990 that what he did to Kuwait was not the US’s concern. Hilarity ensued.

It sucks when history repeats.

Apr 5, 2009 - 4:56 am 13. vb:

I’m surprised that little video didn’t include Kim’s recipe for pine needle tea, one of the great medicinal discoveries of our age.

It’s interesting that Russia’s interest in disarmament doesn’t extend to North Korea. I gues the big tour this week can be called a success.

Apr 5, 2009 - 5:23 am 14. Samizdat:

President Obama will do what lawyers do, he will run his mouth. If he intends to rely on multilateral response he will get nothing cohesive.
The evidence suggests thet the N K regime is interested in one thing, survival. This launch was meant to be provocative and to show that the north has improved it’s missile tech since it’s last launch; the message being ” you better give us something we need or we will continue to threaten the world with our evolving technology”.
Until the Chinese decide they have had enough, this farce will continue. The way to get their attention would be for Japan to develope it’s own nuclear weapons program and intercontinental ballistic missile system. Given that the 6 party talks have gone no where and produced nothing except reinforcing the point that the north’s word can’t be trusted, if I were Japan I would reluctantly tell the neighbors that despite being the only country ever to be attacked with nuclear weapons, given the north’s belicosity we have decided to protect our selves by developing the ability to hit back. The Chinese would not at all enjoy the prospect of a Nuclear armed Japan. They have ancient memories of Japanese agression. They might actually do something to rein in the north. Won’t happen otherwise.

Apr 5, 2009 - 5:29 am 15. Pops in Vienna:

I think we better prepare ourselves for more humiliation. When you consider that communist China holds the “mortgage” on the United States of America that’s pretty bad for starters. It doesn’t speak well of capitalism or the US’s ability to manage its money.

No doubt this little missle incident (which the MSM will downplay to protect Obama) will be the prelude to bigger “tests”. It’s probably about time for Iran to drive one of their rubber boats into an aircraft carrier or some similar Monty Python like action. That will get the Islamic world laughing at us along with the Asians.

I bet old Putin can’t believe his good fortune. With an affirmative action wussie as president, Europe and the world his his. Look for mishief in Latin America.

Oh well, they loved Obama in Prague this morning. Must be they worked out the kinks in the teleprompter.

Apr 5, 2009 - 5:31 am 16. Pops in Vienna:

Europe and the world ARE his (sorry)

Apr 5, 2009 - 5:33 am 17. e:

Well, what did you expect? Obama made it clear he was doing nothing. Japan and SK didn’t act because they didn’t have any support from the US, moral or otherwise.

Obama doesn’t realize that he is a world leader, and the most powerful one at that. As a leader he must lead and make decisions. Instead he acts like an international senator, thinking that he needs a 2/3rds vote to do anything international. All he does is propose ideas, he doesn’t decide to do anything.

Apr 5, 2009 - 6:05 am 18. hdgreene:

I think the administration has determined that the problem is low self esteem. I agree, but haven’t quite figured out whose.

The rulers of Nork-a-stan are tyrants but for over 60 years now they have only been allowed to tyrannize their own people. They should have extensive foreign conquests by now. That’s gotta grate on the Great Leader and make him feel, well, not so great. So you figure, give him some ICBMs with Multiple Independently Targeted Warheads on a couple of Trident submarines, and that will make him more aware of his own self worth and bring him out of his shell — you know, buck him up a bit. Important thing: You got to make him think it’s his idea.

You can see how becoming Secretary of State has improved Hillary’s self esteem. She can now stand up to the most powerful nation on the planet and just say no to missile defense. This shows that her spine has swelled and her head has stiffened. She goes down to Mexico and admits the US has much to learn from that country and has done much that is wrong to that country (with the exception of the years 1992-2000). She can perk up enemies and put allies to sleep. She can reset the recharge button and reschedule payments. Life is sweet.

President Obama no longer designs his own seals, he got one with a 200 year history. He leads a party that has ruined a major corporation and he can fire the CEO. He now has the self confidence to apologize for everybody else’s mistakes. And he can bow down to the guy who can help him triple the price of gas so his industrial policy will look a little less ridiculous. This is what becoming “The Boss Prez” can do for you.

Gee, if only the voters had low self esteem that could be raised. Well, I suppose there is a program for that, too.

Apr 5, 2009 - 6:16 am 19. Quaere Verum:

NK does nothing without at least tacit approval from China. This is BHO’s new best friend Hu Jintao testing the new Pres and sticking a big red thumb in Obama’s eye. Nothing will happen in the UN…alert the media…Russia and China won’t even need to consider anything coming up for veto at the Security Council.

No doubt the Chinese, Russians, jihadi groups across the world, and wannabe leaders (Chavez) have taken notes. Wretchard, agree there is a middle ground response. There should have been an immediate shootdown of this missle over open water.

No doubt Chinese strategists are considering other options in Asia (Taiwan), Russians are looking East, and the rest of the world’s monsters are considering how they might misbehave locally and globally.

Hu Jintao and Medvedev must be on their kness every night thanking whatever god they pray to. China and Russia could not have asked for any more than the quisling child playing President.

QV

Apr 5, 2009 - 6:17 am 20. Kathy L.:

Can someone please move the UN to another country? If they are going to continue being ineffective, I wish they would do it on some other country’s dime. Then we can open up the UN building, lease it, rent it, make it worth something.

Apr 5, 2009 - 6:22 am 21. Triton'sPolarTiger:

Though I was still a bit of a young’un, I have a vivid memory of feeling a certain collective impotence during the Carter Years. The Warsaw Pact had a ridiculous advantage in tanks, artillery pieces, etc, and nothing Captain Cardigan did suggested that we’d ever do a d@mn thing about it. The MagicMalaiseMan went on, as we all know, to preside over a 444 day debacle I remember as the Iran Hostage Crisis.

Then came Reagan, along with a hope that, finally, we had an adult in the big chair who wouldn’t cower before our enemies. I remember feeling utter joy over his election, and on the whole I was rather satisfied with what took place during his 8 years at the helm.

Is it too much to hope that history repeats itself? It seems to be a given that the next four years (or, God forbid, the next eight) will be chock full of “Oh fer cryin’ out loud!” moments… will enough of our fellow citizens recover their senses to the point that we can swing the pendulum the other way, again?

I hope so.

In the meantime, Japan better think in terms of dealing with NK without our help… time to Nuke-Up.

Apr 5, 2009 - 6:28 am 22. RWE:

This was the third try for N Korea that we know of, which is the same number that Iran took to get one in orbit and comes just after Iran got one up, which is certainly not a coincidence.

As far as what it indicates about capability, the payload was presumably in at least the 100 pound range, which would make the missile about the same as a Minuteman 1 in terms of throw weight. In contrast, the Atlas D could put 1 ton in orbit, the Titan II about 2 tons and the Peacekeeper about 5000 pounds. Of course the Taepodong has the advantage of not having to haul along a radiation and shock hardened guidance wafer, which the Minuteman does, and which reduces its orbital capacity to just about zero.

So, they have the rocket with the range. Do they have the warhead? Don’t know. Is it small enough to fit? Don’t know.

For reentry vehicles, they did not have to go through building copper beryllium heat sink low velocity RVs like we did. And the funny thing is that if you can build a solid rocket motor nozzle you can build an RV. They don’t have carbon-carbon RVs but you can bet they have one that will work. They don’t need to do a full up ICBM test flight to test RVs because they can do short range tests with the 2nd stage firing on the way down to add velocity, like we did. Indications are, they did just this.

Now, as for accuracy, they are probably not too good. Probably terrible, in fact. Militarily this is a big problem but for terror purposes aiming at Fairbanks and hitting Shemya – or Pearl Harbor – is good enuf. They can always say, “We meant to do that” even if they hit the water between Pearl and Shemya.

The one problem I see is the fuse for the nuke. I really don’t know how you get one to go off at the right altitude after an ICBM flight. But someone knows how and you can test those the same way you do the RVs.

So line right up, tin pot dictators! Chavez and a bunch of middle eastern states will be ringing Kim’s doorbell.

Apr 5, 2009 - 6:39 am 23. Barry 0351:

The worst thing in the world is ignoring a little man when he is trying to show his strength and trying to attract attention.
The little man will just go on to greater and bigger events until by god he has your undivided attention.

Apr 5, 2009 - 6:43 am 24. Northern Light:

I’m kind of confused. Some sources say the satelite didn’t go into orbit, but this report implies that it did. Most authorities stated that they didn’t believe this was a communications satelite, yet this article seems to be saying that it was what North Korea said it was.

As far as offensive weapons go, this one doesn’t seem too bad. Perhaps the song is offensive, I’ve got to admit I don’t understand the lyrics. It does have that overblown and silly sound that a lot of totalitarian propganda has. Perhaps it’s offensive, but if offensive music is a provocation, somebody should attack MTV at once!

I’ve got to admit the whole thing has surprised me. I thought it would be another abject failure.

But all in all, if this was a satelite and North Korea has a right to shoot rockets into space, then there is nothing to condem. Except perhaps that a country as poor as North Korea shouldn’t be wasting their resources on silly things like “The Song of Jong”.

Apr 5, 2009 - 6:46 am 25. Northern Light:

Siily me! I just read the BBC report linked in the article. The report that the satellite was working was from North Korea. South Korea has confirmed that the rocket was carrying something that looked like a satellite, but no outside source has confirmed that the satellite is in orbit.

We will have to wait to see if the satellite worked, but I’m guessing it didn’t.

Apr 5, 2009 - 6:51 am 26. MarkJ:

“Can someone please move the UN to another country? If they are going to continue being ineffective, I wish they would do it on some other country’s dime. Then we can open up the UN building, lease it, rent it, make it worth something.”

Variation on a joke:

Q: If we learn that an aircraft hijacked by terrorists is headed straight for the UN Building, what should we do?”

A: Set up aircraft beacons around Turtle Bay to make sure the plane doesn’t miss.

Apr 5, 2009 - 7:23 am 27. RWE:

Let add something. Relative to the question Wretchard asked in his earlier post.

Don’t know how far Akita Prefecture is from the launch site, but overall that sounds like a rather far downrange splashdown point for the first stage compared to a Minuteman or Peacekeeper or even some U.S. space boosters. That could mean that they are getting more of the performance out of the first stage than would be considered normal (not surprising, since they first stage part is what they can do relatively well). Or it could mean they have unused performance available.

The confusion over whether the payload is in orbit is normal in these cases. I think on the first Taepodong NK made a similar announcement, claming they heard it even if no one else did. The 2nd launch was an early boost failure and they made no such claim of success that I know of. In any case, AF Space Command will be able to confirm it by tomorrow.

Apr 5, 2009 - 7:34 am 28. Triton'sPolarTiger:

Recognizing that correlation doesn’t necessarily mean that, upon further investigation, causation would be established… from my humble perspective, it appears that our various enemies around the globe have settled on a “bleed the giant” strategy of accomplishing their various goals, when those goals mean being in conflict with the United States…. or, if you will, death by a thousand cuts…

Is it too much to hope that our presently-abandoned allies might, while acting in their self-interest, give us a boost while we’re on our present vacation from responsibility?

How much of a financial burden might it be on China and Russia if, say, Japan announced (based on NoKor activities) its intention to proceed with its own ballistic missile program coupled with its own nuclear program? What if Australia got into the mix? Maybe, with recent provocations in the Artic, Canada might be persuaded to go nuclear rather than just man the DEW line and rely on the whims of their southern cousins to protect them…

Sauce for the goose…. or geese, as it were.

Apr 5, 2009 - 7:43 am 29. James:

I think that Obama voted “present” on this one.

Apr 5, 2009 - 7:48 am 30. Sebastian Shaw:

President Obama will look for the ineffectual, stilted, corrupt United Nations for leadership to “punish” North Korea; in other words, nothing will happen besides a letter of scorn.

In the meantime, the Communist Dictator, Kim Jong Il is laughing at the wannabe Communist Dictator, President Barack Obama.

North Korea will more than likely have another missle test in the near future.

The clueless President Obama is also looking for leadership from Europe when the United States has always been the leader. Obama seems to be making it up as he’s wanders aimlessly into one pile of dung into another.

Obama better change his shoes.

Apr 5, 2009 - 7:55 am 31. Derek:

>Is this the crisis to which Biden cryptically referred during election season?

It’s only a crisis when the US reacts to it.

The only crime here was lese majeste, no? No harm, no foul. Nations will grow in respect of the US seeing their reasonableness, no?

Derek

Apr 5, 2009 - 8:09 am 32. Pops in Vienna:

Superb Derek #31.

Apr 5, 2009 - 8:12 am 33. SeniorD:

Where’s Jaime Retief when we need him?

Apr 5, 2009 - 8:15 am 34. ExDemocrat:

Yep, pull out the old, overused and warn out rolled up newspaper, for another gentle whack on the nose.

Why do they even waste their time. Nothing has or will be accomplished.

Just let the missiles fly at will. Once they land, then maybe something will finally be done.

Apr 5, 2009 - 8:15 am 35. Alexis:

What happened to the UN’s supply of wet noodles?

Apr 5, 2009 - 8:38 am 36. Tony:

Maybe we’re all just fascinated with this NorK rocket because this is what the NorKs are famous for. Two months ago, Iran succeeded in becoming the ninth country to put its own satellite into orbit, and its second stage also achieved orbit. So much for the “it was only a small satellite” bullshit. And… what did President Obama do about that?

From whitehouse.gov: MR. GIBBS: Well, obviously the White House has seen reports on Iran. Efforts to develop missile delivery capability, efforts that continue on an illicit nuclear program, or threats that Iran makes toward Israel, and its sponsorship of terror are of acute concern to this administration. The President is clear that he wants Iran to be a responsible member of the world community. Again, I would underscore the “responsible,” that with that goes responsibilities. The actions — this action does not convince us that Iran is acting responsibly to advance stability or security in the region.

All of this continues to underscore that our administration will use all elements of our national power to deal with Iran and to help it be a responsible member of the international community.

blah blah blah, and dissolve to… fade out

I’m waiting on the reaction to Iran’s successful launch (it doesn’t matter that the “satellite” failed six or seven weeks later. It DOES matter that the Russians helped Iran. And what did we do about it? Anything? Nahhhhh. O wait, Obama sent them a YouTube for Nowruz.

————-

Technical note: is it even possible to shoot down a boosting ICBM from underneath? What could catch it, short of another, bigger, faster ICBM, or an airborne laser?

Apr 5, 2009 - 8:39 am 37. RAH:

N Korea has been successful and that will breed more attempts by other nation. Thus the lesson weakness is made.

We could have countered with an intercept, which would have been a lesson of the ineffectiveness of ICBMS and push the salability of ABM systems that we have to sell.

Iran will be next and then Venezuela will try since Chavez wants to be next anti American. I wanted him eliminated when he first showed up on the radar and prevented him getting the power.

A good program to identify bad leaders and then eliminate them would save us a lot of problems. It was very costly to rid of Hussein and we knew he was bad decades ago. Worthwhile since bad guys get worse as they get older and more secure. Some time America policies of waiting for natural causes to get rid of a dictator like Castro is very shortsighted and costly.

We can only hope that Israel will not follow Obama’s policy and take out Iran nukes. At least they are not beholden to Obama like they were with Bush who prevented Israeli action.

Apr 5, 2009 - 8:58 am 38. Northern Light:

I’m still a bit confused, after all this IS rocket science.

Does, North Korea have the right to send satellites into orbit?
Did North Korea send a satellite into orbit?

they have the right to do it and this is in fact what they did, can we condem them for doing something they have a right to do?

If all of the above are true wouldn’t the US have been wrong to shoot the thing down?

What is the difference between a rocket and a missle? If there is a difference, what did North Korea launch?

When will we know what’s heppening here? Will it be hours, days or weeks before we figure out if that silly Jong song is being broadcast?

If the North Koreans have a right to do what they did, then why are people acting like there should be an act of war over it (if America launched a satellite and someone else shot it down, I’m pretty sure the USA would be screaming “ACT OF WAR”). If N. Korea didn’t fire a legal space shot, then what did they do? And who can we trust to tell us what that was. (I wouldn’t believe a word N. Korea says, and after the WMD hoax that started the Iraq war I’m taking American intelligence with a grain of salt)

Apr 5, 2009 - 9:19 am 39. Delia:

29. James:

“I think that Obama voted “present” on this one.”
~

Yeah but give him a break, he’s in the shadow of Michelle’s ginormous ghetto onion.

Apr 5, 2009 - 9:32 am 40. MG:

Folks, relax

It should be no surprise to anyone that the UN is to the US as Lilliput was to Gulliver. BUT… having the UN in Manhattan means that the information flow into / out of that building (and its embassies) are subject to US collection and analysis.

Next, we have a better idea of NorK’s demonstrated capabilities. They are crude. Surprise!

Finally, attacking a missile in boost phase needs to occur early on, or the energetics don’t work out. by the time of 1st stage burnout, it is likely too late. At that point, Japan could only engage the NorK launch if it was on descent. Since the 2d stage fired, there was no risk, and no engagement necessary.

Besides, it helps Japan’s interests to have its actual shoot-down capability remain somewhat uncertain.

Apr 5, 2009 - 10:25 am 41. John:

Dork Korea. Don’t we have any left over ICBM’s laying around the basement at the pentagon we can try out? Got to make sure the things still work don’t we?

I mean I used to be down for the whole war on dip wads thing, but its getting tiresome and costly. Can’t we just end it in an entrtaining and loud fashion?

Apr 5, 2009 - 10:29 am 42. John:

I really like Michelle’s ghetto Onion. She is actually almost as hot as the real Michelle.

Apr 5, 2009 - 10:30 am 43. Fen:

Until the Chinese decide they have had enough, this farce will continue

Had enough? NK is their proxy. China plays the long game while we wear ourselves out playing wack-a-mole.

Apr 5, 2009 - 10:39 am 44. sirius_sir:

they have the right to do it

Of course they do.

So why the previous Security Council Resolutions devoted to preventing the event? There used to be a thing called “International Law” that applied to more than just an excuse to hit George Bush over the head with a figurative cudgel. Ironic, perhaps, that it was the same George Bush who attempted to uphold the concept of international law as contained in U.N. Resolutions to deal with Saddam’s flouting of the terms of a the cease-fire agreement that ended the First Gulf War. But as Northern Light reminds us, these inconvenient facts are lost to the now current conventional wisdom that it was “the WMD hoax that started the Iraq war”.

Yes, and no doubt it will be only just another such hoax–and nothing that Kim Jong-il either does or does not do–that starts a new Korean War.

Apr 5, 2009 - 10:40 am 45. RWE:

Yes, you can shoot down a boosting ICBM from below, and a suitable laser would do it. We were even going to try that back around 1982, but the ABM treaty stopped it. Woulda been neat – a Thor shot down by the NKC-135 Airborne Laser Lab.

If you catch it early enough an air to air missile would do it. Of course that is very early indeed and you have to be almost on top of the launch site.

As far as why we condemn the launch…. If you next door neighbor, a law abiding solid citizen, showed you his new AK-47 you might think it kinda cool. If it was a 25 conviction felon running a crack house you would have a right to be concerned and his ownership of the weapon would be illegal.

Similarly, if Norway or Switzerland or Sweden or Italy or South Korea (who is working on it, by the way) or any number of other nations launched a satellite the reaction would be “How nice, and BFD.”

But I think the real reason for all this “outrage” is that North Korea revealed that the Obamic “diplomacy” approach don’t work with the very people who it really needs to work with. Once again the world has revealed it does not fit the required model. So get mad at the world and don’t wonder if your model is flawed.

By the way, I wonder if anyone has run the real numbers on the Japan overflight aspect. Normally you calculate the effects of a failure (how big a boom), consider the affected population and the degree of sheltering available, consider how long the hazard exists (worse if flying along the length of Japan rather than across it, for example) and the probability of failure (huge, in this case) and see if the resultant casualty predictions meet international standards for safety. But this requires the cooperation of the launch agency, so I doubt it was done – but it could have been guestimated at least.

Apr 5, 2009 - 10:47 am 46. RAH:

N Light #38 .

Decide whose side you are on. Do you want NK and Iran to have nuke and ICBM and able to launch at will to the US and allies? If so yes they have the right. If you don’t, rights are immaterial. Decide what is best for our country not what is best for other countries and then so w3hat is beest for us and our allies.

Are you an American? If not decide what is best for your contry. If you are NKorean then side with the Nkoreans. This is an American blog and we side with American interests.

Apr 5, 2009 - 11:12 am 47. Subotai Bahadur:

BBC was repeating a North Korean claim of a successful launch of a satellite. The claimed [and announced planned] orbit was 490 km x 1426 km x 40.6 degrees inclination. All I can find at this relatively short notice is from a German source that indicates that it did not reach the intended orbit. It may have not made orbit at all or be in a lesser one. It will take analysis of the radar tracks and rates of acceleration to calculate the weight of the payload.

The figures to watch are payload mass. If it is above 350 lbs [sorry, I don't automatically think in metric] and can be boosted into an orbit with a perigee [low point of an earth orbit] of 150 miles, you have a vehicle that can be adapted to be an ICBM. [q.v. India and Japan] If you can hit that specific orbit at will [depends on your guidance systems], you have a vehicle that can deliver a nuclear warhead to a city sized target fairly reliably. The 350 lb figure is a notational one for a crude nuclear warhead used by analysts.

IF they had hit their announced orbit [perigee comes out as 323.4 miles], they would have easily met the perigee figure, but we still have to figure the mass of the payload. I admit that orbital mechanics are not my strong point, and that calculus makes my head hurt, and has for 40 years. I prefer my equations hold still, thank you.

However, once we have a firm orbital figure [or trajectory figure], and a payload weight calculated; it will be possible to calculate what range it would have with a notational nuclear warhead.

I emphasize that use as a targeted weapon requires the ability to hit the orbit/trajectory intended at will; which has yet to be demonstrated with certainty.

A question was raised as to how they would be able to detonate the warhead on target. That is a two part problem. There are a number of field expedients, cheap ones, that could be used to tell the warhead it was time. But the second point, the warhead’s own triggering mechanism is another matter and one that is dependent on its ability to work after the stresses of launch and flight.

#38 Northern Light,

Their legal right to launch satellites is dependent on your view of the legitimacy of UN resolutions. They were banned by the UN from ballistic missile and space launch research. If the UN has any bearing on international law, no they cannot launch legally. If it doesn’t, then they can launch subject to Lex Talionis. Launching over another sovereign nation and posing a risk to that nation can be considered a casus belli. Once the object is orbiting in space, territorial overflight claims are void, but the suborbital portion of the flight can be considered a violation. That is why it is preferred to launch over your own territory or the open sea.

As far as whether this is what Joe “Sheriff Nostradamus” Biden referred to, I rather think that it was not specifically. However, generically it is, and we are going to see a series of such incidents, and many other types, until either open warfare and/or our surrender. I have absolutely no confidence or belief in the desire or intention of this regime to defend the United States or its interests in any way.

Combine that with the current government’s OODA loop being somewhat larger than the orbit the North Koreans claim, and the equivalents of our various enemies being akin to something covered by quantum physics, and no this is not going to end well.

We are in a position where the best hopes of our survival as a nation is for our allies we are betraying to act purely in their own self interest and defend themselves. An Israeli strike on Iran and Japan, Taiwan, and possibly South Korea in Asia and Poland and the Czech Republic developing their own nuclear deterrents are our best hope of survival. We have, by choice, become passive observers of whatever fate our enemies intend, and our Western European allies are merely waiting a chance to pile on for their share of the booty.

Subotai Bahadur

Apr 5, 2009 - 11:37 am 48. RAH:

Actually I think the N Korea and Iranian missiles is exactly what Biden was referring to. I think he also mean the Russian and Chinese. He has decades of history to recall other countries attempts to yank our tail.

Apr 5, 2009 - 11:45 am 49. Tony:

Whether the NorKs had the right or not, they did it against international military sanctions. This is USUALLY a bad sign in historical foreign relations. E.g., under the Treaty of Versailles, a certain potential threat country was limited to an Army of 100,000 with no tanks, a Navy of 6 capital ships with no subs, and no air force. One may argue it would have been prudent, and better for all concerned, if the terms of that treaty had been enforced.

Bush wasn’t the first nor the last to think that enforcing military sanctions on known and proven threats is a good idea. Compared to the alternative, like a rebuilt Germany after WWI, for example. A lot of us thought a rebuilt Iraqi WMD threat combined with a suicidal Islamist global enemy was an outcome not to be allowed, in that time after 9/11 when everyone was awake for a little while.

—

Back to more interesting, verifiable stuff, this shooting down of ICBM while they are in boost phase. Here’s good info from the Congressional Budget Office (July, 2004), sounds challenging: 2
Performance Needed for an Operationally Effective Boost Phase Interceptor System

Apr 5, 2009 - 11:48 am 50. joe buzz:

We should arrange for something to fall out of low orbit onto an Iranian facility and blame it on the NorKors…..
Its high time that the UNSecCoun stop using the term “Resolution”.

Apr 5, 2009 - 12:00 pm 51. sigintel:

Obama, Biden and Hilliary have no historical perspective on this. They seem to have missed the history of WWII, the Korean war and the Cuban missile crisis. The Big 0 is full of “hot air” and clearly an appeaser like Chamberlin. 0 would be happy with a piece of paper from lil Kim saying “I wont” while lil Kim knows that “he will”. So the question is if “he does” …say sell an ICBM to Chavez what will the Big 0 do? Boy do I miss the days of “actionable intelligence” and a President with the “cahonjes” like Reagan to put his money where is mouth is.

Apr 5, 2009 - 12:01 pm 52. RAH:

The near earth space is gettiing crowded so I am glad that the third stage failed and splashed. Destroying objects in space causes a lot of litter that orbits for a long time. The space station astronauts had to retreat to the Soyuz capsule recently for safety since the station was at risked of being holed.

Apr 5, 2009 - 12:23 pm 53. RAH:

Nations can do just about any action legally since they are the creator of their own laws. International laws can only have the effect that the nations allow. In otherwords how much we give power to others over ourselves. N Korea may suffer consequences but has no controls on their actions. Only China seems to have influence and that does not seem that strong. I remember that NK stole the rail cars nadd the grain from China and China said to give the rail cars back and NK did not.

China can stop food shipments and fuel shipments to N korea. Unless China is willing to invade NK they do not have that much influence. China could be induced with for with sanctions with favorable trade terms from Obama since China trade is very insecure now their economy is taking damage. Maybe a better rate on T bIlls?

Apr 5, 2009 - 12:31 pm 54. Tristan Yates:

By now everyone should know that “I’ll refer this to the UN” means “I don’t care but maybe someone else does”.

Apr 5, 2009 - 12:33 pm 55. EdGi:

Wretchard/Samizdata are combined correct; the Norks are a 10% party of banditos only interested in survival and party members wealth. They are a Tong trying desperatly to run a protection scam. They are like a thug with a flintlock threatening guys with M1 battle tanks, believing hopefully the guys with the tanks are quakers. Richard, I think their vulnerability is not to our military but to our banks; if the party cannot control wealth, the army will go elsewhere to survive. The army cannot go into SK without abandoning NK to the slaves. As long as the party prospers, it will rule.

Apr 5, 2009 - 12:45 pm 56. Tony:

@ 52 RAH This problem of junk in space has already been solved. They’re called nano-sats. They’re not really nano-scale, they’re as big as a Rubik’s cube, you can literally hold them in the palm of your hand. Their camera (not gonna give you Keyhole/Hubble imagery) is the size of a pencil eraser, their inertial wheels are half the length of your little finger. When war goes inevitably spaceward and near-sky fills with metallic asteroid clouds, men won’t fly there anymore, but these little suckers will.

————

Still stuck on this thing about denying known bad actors weapons, and the CI (conventional ignorance) that states categorically that Iraq was no threat under Saddam. The postwar, best on the ground intelligence was the Duelfer Report, which determined that Saddam still had the know-how, infrastructure and skilled scientists to quickly rebuild his Chem and Bio WMD programs quickly. Since our French and Russian allies had already subverted the UN Security Council sanction regime, and it was AFTER 9/11, a lot of us thought it was a good idea to eliminate future threats. It was only a few weeks after 9/11 after Osama’s safe haven under the Taliban in Afghanistan was eliminated. Our progress slowed from there, but we didn’t stop at least.

We didn’t go far enough, I’ll stip to that, but Saddam in Iraq, Gadafi in Libya, and for a while there, AQ Khan in Pakistan were eliminated as WMD threats. Those are all good things.

Apr 5, 2009 - 12:52 pm 57. RabelRabel:

In addition to reaching orbit and broadcasting revolutionary songs, the north Korean satellite is now posting on JournoList and has issued a cagematch slamdown challenge to Obama’s Teleprompter.

Sorry, just trying to be trendy.

Apr 5, 2009 - 1:03 pm 58. ExDemocrat:

Alexis said:

What happened to the UN’s supply of wet noodles?

The world keeps telling them to get tough. Rolled up newspapers are their compromise.

Apr 5, 2009 - 1:17 pm 59. Sebastian Shaw:

President Obama’s political powers of persuation are impotent. North Korea has shown the Obama administration to only talk lightly & leave the big stick under lock & key in a secret vault where even he cannot find it.

This is the primary problem with Democrats’ politics: They think they can talk our enemies out of terrorism.

Apr 5, 2009 - 1:35 pm 60. RWE:

Latest world seems to be that the U.S. says the satellite did not make orbit.

And then there is this, from a news report:

“Kim is reportedly a big film buff, and his strategy appears to have borrowed heavily from the 1959 movie “The Mouse That Roared,” about a fictional poor country that declares war on the U.S., expecting to lose and get aid like the Marshall Plan that Washington used to help rebuild its World War II foes.”

To some extent this is correct. Kim can either use the launch capability as a bargaining chip for yet another Bailout from Obama – after all, ’tis the season. Or he can sell rockets to people we don’t like. But he does not “plan to lose” either way.

Apr 5, 2009 - 2:12 pm 61. whiskey:

Let’s be honest, if Obama had decided to either shoot down the missile or strike the facility just before launch, he would have had little international comeback, established himself as a strong leader who cannot be pushed around, and pushed his domestic ratings up into the 80% range.

It’s telling therefore he did not take the no-brainer option.

Because a lifetime of Obama’s racial hatred and volk Marxism has conditioned him to want America powerless, even with himself as President.

You saw this when he bent his knees and bowed and scraped and kissed the hand of the Saudi King.

NO President has done that. EVER.

The putatively most powerful man in the World bows and scrapes before a jumped up petty tribal chieftan. America’s leader does this!

This says, also, that Obama beyond any doubt is a Muslim, a secret or not so-secret one, and puts his religious beliefs (and religious-ethnic mixed hatred of Whites and America which are obvious in his book) … AHEAD of even his own interest in being the most powerful leader he can be.

This is Obama. A man who hates Whites and America so much (because of his racial-religious ideology) that he’ll forgo power and popularity for weakness.

He’s like the Reverse Stalin. A guy who when presented with power opportunities leaves them lying around so he can stick it to his enemies for emotional satisfaction.

This fatal flaw in Obama may be the only thing that saves us, and causes the Democratic Party and it’s electoral coalition to fall to ruin.

I’m convinced now Obama wants America nuked to “teach us a lesson” and will grovel and justify the nuking afterwards.

The fallout is that every true American knows that at some point Obama must be removed by Impeachment and Conviction, for national survival. He won’t even fight for America on his own account, let alone ours.

Japan and Taiwan got told unmistakably they are on their own and must nuke up ASAP. Which I’m sure they will. It’s the only way to keep Kim or China or both from ruling them.

Apr 5, 2009 - 2:50 pm 62. Ari Tai:

re: provocations. Time to do some. Must be a South Korean giant interested in building a factory along the fence, say, aside the north easter border and inside the DMZ. Make it a private effort, starting w/ the highway. Wait for the North to bomb the builders. Open the factory, invite northern workers. Replay Berlin. If they bomb the workers, take off the gloves.

Apr 5, 2009 - 3:20 pm 63. RAH:

Tony # 56 I agree with both points.I was just happy that we do not have to destroy another satellite. I doubt the NK has those small cameras or nano-sats yet.

I agree with converting Iraq from an enemy to an ally . It was good strategy. Plus the submission of Libya and the bringing to light the AQ Khan nuke network is all good stuff.

Apr 5, 2009 - 3:54 pm 64. RAH:

we still should have shot it down it would have been good for Obama and the US. Maybe Whiskey is right in #61, I hope not. I really do not want the US to be nuked. So we need to arrest Obama then? I would hope the military will do the right thing if needed and use the ABM system despite being arrested for it if a nuke heads our way.

Apr 5, 2009 - 3:57 pm 65. Ben Franklin:

These are dangerous times. Iran is building a nuke while North Korea is building the vehicle. In response to this we bend our knee to the Iranians and let the Norks shoot of their missile. To top it off Obama says that he wants a nuclear free world but by refusing to protect our allies he has assured that Japan and Taiwan have to arm themselves with nukes and interceptors thus expanding the arms race. We also pull out of building anti-missile bases in Eastern Europe while extracting nothing from the Russians in exchange. I would say he has played this as poorly as possible.

On top of all of this we have hung the Israelis out to dry and told them not to strike Iran even though that is what most of the Arab states want.

I don’t agree with Whiskey that Obama wants us to get hit but I believe his policies would be no different if he did. The same goes for his economic policies. He is just that stupid.

Had Obama been president during the cold war we would all be drinking windshield wiper fluid now.

Apr 5, 2009 - 5:23 pm 66. Stephen Rittenberg:

The castrati of Europe love O. He’s one of them, as demonstrated by his handling of Kim Jong Il’s missile launch. He reminds me of a kinky pervert whose ‘anger’ is part of an erotic ritual. He secretly loves being shafted by Kim–it’s so multicultural, so PoMo, so exciting. And that missile is so large and powerful–ooh!

Apr 5, 2009 - 5:28 pm 67. Sebastian Shaw:

President Obama is already giving up on Iran who is ready to submit to the rogue country to be nuclear. Those direct talks aren’t going so well after President Obama criticized President Bush.

Obama is a fool.

Apr 5, 2009 - 5:44 pm 68. Jose A. Garcia:

I am an American Soldier, and I have been since 87, my time at this gig is coming to an end, but so is the US Military that I grew up with.

Unless there is a paradigm shift in American society, the days of American military superiority are at an end. There is nothing we would do to North Korea no matter what they do. They could come across the border in Korea and we would negotiate for the return of our troops.

Apr 5, 2009 - 6:09 pm 69. FeFe:

Poetry. Bravo! The UN never takes into consideration what is best for the people of NK. Like food and no gulags. Tell me again how much was that oil for food scandal? Errr, accounting error since no one ever paid a price. Silly me. Speaking of cost, lets give Gaza $900 million and ignore the rockets and mortars into Israel to this day. Hopensuckers.

Apr 5, 2009 - 6:12 pm 70. sigintel:

Can it get any uglier?

Israel hits Iran’s nuclear sites – August 09
Russia seizes Ukraine and Georgia – Sept 09
Pakistan falls to Taliban control – November 09
US troops in Afghanistan are nuked by Paki Nukes – January 2010
India invades Pakistan – March 2010
North Korea launches suicide attack on SK – June 2010
AQ hits a US city with a dirty bomb – Sept 2010
Obama declares marshal law – Sept 2010
Mid-term elections canceled – Nov 2010

Apr 5, 2009 - 6:19 pm 71. ChipD:

70 hysterical comments, and not one realistic option presented.

Apr 5, 2009 - 6:59 pm 72. dan:

hysterical? why hysterical?

i’d say #1, 2, 3 are inevitable; if 3, then 4 is possible – USA counterstrike might be forestalled by political considerations and/or nuclear blackmail, whereby 5 becomes the only conventional retaliatory option.

surely that much US + south Asian chaos would make the time ripe for 6 – if NK existed for that purpose, which it does only in the sense that its target is USA.

what if, for example, 1 – 4, but then Russia decides to step in and announce it will guarantee the international order by threatening USA with a strike if we launch on Pakistan, and communicates backchannel to Europe that it will cut off fuel supplies unless it backs Russia?

and so on.

if i were you, i would not presume, particularly under accelerating circumstances, that “hysteria” is the prudent characterization of sigintel’s hypothetical timeline. if you cannot feel things moving toward crisis… i dunno. feels that way to me most days, although no one can predict the specific shape it will take.

Apr 5, 2009 - 7:48 pm 73. dan:

also, fareed zakariah is a whore. pass it on.

Apr 5, 2009 - 7:48 pm 74. buddy larsen:

ChipD, i have the same thought looking at the world –6,500,000,000 hysterical comments, and not one realistic option presented.

Apr 5, 2009 - 8:30 pm 75. donttreadonme:

Wise man ask (use heavy Korean accent):
“If dog barks in middle of North Korean woods, how long until it is eaten?”

Apr 5, 2009 - 8:34 pm 76. buddy larsen:

Sigintel/70; meanwhile, president does-he-plan-to-reboot-and-start-all-over-again? is shaving the deterrent edge off the US military:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/04/03/AR2009040304080.html

Apr 5, 2009 - 8:37 pm 77. buddy larsen:

PS …in order to save money for the stimulus program.

Which brings the question, are the UAW and the SEIU ready to collective bargain with the Eurasian Landmass and Southern Hemisphere?

Apr 5, 2009 - 8:43 pm 78. donttreadonme:

ChipD:
Alright, here’s a “realistic option”:
It is a well-known fact that mini-Elvis loves his fine wine and his Western porn. Soooo, Obama mandates and subsidizes a porn-of-the-week production that is sent overnight to Pyongyang. Splice into the movie very brief subliminal suggestions in Korean – like “you are so tall, dear leader, you have nothing left to prove.” or “what a hung beast you are, dear leader, make love, not war.” or “dogs and cats taste terrible – you must open Taco Bells and Burger Kings everywhere!” I think it could work. Whatdaya think, ChipD?

Apr 5, 2009 - 8:43 pm 79. The Irascible Chef » Go Ahead Send Me the Letter. Make my Day!:

[...] Curses, foiled again Reuters quotes diplomatic sources as saying that UN Security Council is unlikely to impose any sanctions on North Korea for firing a missile in defiance of earlier Security Council Resolutions. [...]

Apr 5, 2009 - 9:18 pm 80. hawkeye:

maybe, just maybe, although the chance is slim, the missile’s orbit will degrade, and the junk that survives re-entry will smash into the un building

Apr 6, 2009 - 1:03 am 81. Tony:

@76 Buddy’s WaPo cite: Gates … plans to eliminate elements of the decades-old missile defense effort that are over budget or considered ineffective….

“He is strategically reshaping the budget The end result, we hope, is a budget that more accurately reflects the strategic priorities of the president.”

Remember, those making the decisions on whether missile defense is or is not “ineffective” are people who believe in Global Warming. The same people who believe the USA should unilaterally punish and weaken ourselves with these suicidal cap’n'trade disasters.

Of course, the WaPo points out that most loved of liberal “facts” – the US spends more on defense than the next 25 nations combined. Of course, they don’t mention that the USA does more in defense of worldwide freedom and dignity than the next 171 nations combined.

Perk up, kids! It was worse than this under Carter (so far). Back then, the Dems had actually forced our surrender in Vietnam, and allowed the murderous annihilation of our former allies in Southeast Asia after a long war. That’s what they were hoping they could set up for President Obama in Iraq, undeniable proof of America’s helpless perfidy, thank God Bush saved us from that fate.

Apr 6, 2009 - 5:08 am 82. Paul -Indiana:

I don’t understand … Hillary told them NOT to launch. So did Obambi.

Apr 6, 2009 - 5:24 am 83. Paul -Indiana:

#70. Yes it can get worse. Obama elected again.

Apr 6, 2009 - 5:25 am 84. Erasmus:

Fine. Just what do you think would happen if we would launch a military strike on North Korea? Use you freaking brains people? Or do you relish the thought of starting a war that would kill literally millions of people.

Apr 6, 2009 - 7:40 am 85. David W. Lincoln:

The relationship between the Beijing Politburo and the North Korean government, is the same as the relationship the current Iranian government has with Hamas and Hezbollah.

Let that be said, for it needs to be said, but it isn’t being said.

Apr 6, 2009 - 8:18 am 86. Peter the Bubblehead:

Get the US out of the UN. It is a worthless world body merely taking up space and giving every tin-horn dictator and crackpot a world-wide audience to preen to.

Disband the UN!

Apr 6, 2009 - 9:09 am 87. buddy larsen:

Tony/81; — Amen, tony –all three paragraphs, amen!

Apr 6, 2009 - 12:36 pm 88. typos_R_us:

“The confusion over whether the payload is in orbit is normal in these cases.”

Actually, it’s not.

http://www.rcopticalsystems.com/mounts/images/Autonomous_LEO_and_Orbital_Debris_Tracking_RCOS_AMOS_2007.pdf

Nothing difficult about predicting the orbit of anything. If you can’t predict it, it’s not an orbit.
Either nothing is in orbit, which means it was a ballistic launch (IE; a test for a warhead) or it didn’t make orbit. No secrets here, the powers that be are just not telling. Reporters are to stooooooopid to know which question to ask.

Here is the wikipedia article on space debris;
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_debris

IIRC, google Earth can also track LEO objects.
http://adn.agi.com/SatelliteDatabase/SatelliteDatabase.kmz

Not sure that is the correct link.
Anyway, confusion over whether or not there is a a new addition to the space junk collection is 100% intentional. NASA and Cheyenne Mountain know, they just aren’t telling. Why they aren’t is the real issue here.
Move along, nothing to see here. Move along please!

Apr 6, 2009 - 3:43 pm 89. typos_R_us:

As far as Kim Ill goes, there is only one solution for a mad dog. You put them down before they bite someone.
Stop playing with this boy and put a JSOW thru his bathroom window while he is taking his morning dump. Then blame it on the Jooooooooos. Like what happened in Sudan.

Apr 6, 2009 - 3:48 pm 90. ExDemocrat:

84. Erasmus:

Millions now or millions later? Do you think NK is going to change their ways, just because we don’t bomb them?

Not only is NK ratcheting up their military, but they are helping out Iran and other nepharius countries.

In the real world, peace does not always beget peace. Sometimes, you have to take them out.

That is the reality.

Of course, we could always wait until America is hit and millions here are killed.

Apr 6, 2009 - 4:51 pm 91. typos_R_us:

“Of course, we could always wait until America is hit and millions here are killed.”

That is what the Left is planning. Not sure it is a witting plan or the default plan. Fall thru logic can create some real crazy bugs.
On a positive note, the insanity of liberalism seems to be an urban thang. So when the nukes start to fly, it will be the people (liberals) that are responsible for establishing the circumstances that allowed a nuclear attack on America to happen that will experience the Pika-Dan up close and personal. Somebody nuking New York, San Fran, Chicago or D.C won’t exactly upset people in the red states. And it’s not like this ball-less wienie of an alleged Hawaiian is going to nuke anybody back.

Apr 8, 2009 - 8:02 am 92. Wil- #70 SigIntel:

to quote Louis Armstrong… “and I think to myself, what a wonderful world”. You’ve got to “imagine” it.. our Pres. will have Bin Laden, Bibi, Kim Jong Il, Ahamdinejad, Gaddafi, Putin, Manmohan SINGH, Wen Jiabao, Rush Limbaugh, and everyone sitting around the fire roasting marshmallows, singing “Kum Bah Ya” together, before you can “Give Peace a Chance” (in Chinese). I’m just gettin warm and fuzzy all over…

Apr 8, 2009 - 1:03 pm

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