Great Name – Courageous People

Paganism from the Tower of Babel is with us still today. Google it.

Over.

#166 Tony, please bear with me while I weigh in on the “points” Andy is trying to raise. I am not trying to usurp any reply you may wish to make yourself.

Andy,

While I, and most other analysts, strongly criticize Bush for failing to put our military on a war footing [I myself want to see 3 division colors brought out of retirement at Carlisle Barracks, 3 more CVBG's, and several more wings of air transport and aerial tankers.] Your statements are disingenuous at best. Let us look at your figures for high school dropouts. First, they date from 2005. Second, they include those who dropped out of high school and then went on to get GED’s as being the same as dropouts.

Current data [as of February] indicates that 70% of high school students go on to graduate. Last year, the Army recruited 83% new enlistees with diplomas. This year they plan to have 90% diploma holders. Of the remaining, the bulk have GED’s and the program to reach out to dropouts in fact creates GED holders.

To be accepted, you have to have left high school without a diploma at least 6 months before. You have to pass both the physical standards [most recruits who fail to complete the enlistment process fail for physical reasons], AND you have to take and pass the standard aptitude and psychological tests before joining the program. The Army will then help you prepare for and take the exam for a GED. You are listed as being on the Delayed Entry Program, and must have the GED within 6 months to be allowed to enlist. Not exactly the same as someone who is a true dropout and it indicates more than a bit of drive to improve one’s life.

Of the “waivers”, the Army has received permission to issue up to 6000 waivers on an individual basis for both physical and behavioural problems. That is out of an Army of about 1/2 million active duty. [1.2%]

The majority of the waivers are for physical problems, mostly eyesight. Most of the behavioural problems involve juvenile activity, and they include having had tattoos that portray things not tolerated by the military. I will note that they look at the overall record and life of the individual at a 10 level review process to see if the individual is in fact suitable to enlist. Each individual has to be approved in the end by a general officer. Not exactly the wholesale destruction of the military portrayed. Current recruiting is at 105% of goal and 112% of the goal for the Reserves without reducing standards.

http://www.army.mil/-news/2009/02/12/16846-army-recruiting-on-track-despite-challenges/

I find the concern for the quality of the military somewhat surprising, since it is a goal of the Democratic Party to reintroduce the 1960’s style draft. This gave us an Army of 40% actual dropouts, criminals sentenced to the military, and lowered combat effectiveness. In fact the chief sponsor of the legislation, Representative Rangel, intends to build in a permanent anti-military constituency thereby, and permanent opposition to any use of the military.

The remaining reply to Tony seems to reflect a combination of DailyKos and Democratic Underground “9/11 Truther” talking points. This does not enhance your credibility.

To return to your reply to me; IF there is any action by the Obama administration to secure Pakistan’s nukes [a point that is in extreme doubt] it will not be done exclusively by some Rambo-esque strike by a bunch of lone wolves. The preparation for any such effort will have to be done by our Intel folk operating to get the information the strike team would need, to turn or neutralize key people, and if as you have mentioned before some Pakistanis would deliver their materials to us in return for payoff and asylum, yes it is the CIA who would be doing that. Mind you, I do not have a great deal of trust in the CIA because of their history of leaking secret information for the benefit of the Democrats; but they are the ones who will have to do the job.

Your confidence that the Russians are not going to attack Georgia is … interesting.

The Russian Black Seas Fleet sortied en masse from Sevastopol some time ago. This is not a normal fleet evolution and was last done when Georgia was last attacked. Their amphibious vessels are fully loaded with Naval Landing Troops [the closest approximation they have to our Marines]. The Russians just completed a new rail line into South Ossetia, and Russian troops are massing just on the other side of the border. The Russian government has just warned/threatened NATO not to have scheduled troop exercises in Georgia, and there are instances of crew served weapons being fired from the Russian controlled area into Georgia. Yep. sounds prefectly peaceable. The conquest of Georgia would in fact enhance Russian finances by blocking the only route for Central Asian energy to get to Europe outside of Russian control. And, as noted, it would block the only alternative route for American supplies to get to Afghanistan. Your willingness to subordinate US interests to those of Russia and/or Iran is your right.

Your faith in the ability and intentions of the Lightworker seems genuine. No matter what we say here, events will unfold regardless. Can we say that the future credibility of your support for Obama would be measured in part by any reaction or lack thereof to the possible loss of control of the Pakistani nukes and any Russian attack on Georgia?

As far as the name. While I am an American of Asian ancestry, I am not Mongol. However, I adopted it as a “nom de blog/pen” for my non-official and non-commercial writing; out of admiration for one of the great military minds of all time.

Subotai Bahadur

Ideas can easily be destroyed. Islam has been quite effective at doing so in areas it controls. Ideas can also be replaced with worse ideas. That’s the goal of jihad after all. It’s also Obama’s goal.

I agree that in such a condition we would mobilize the CRAF; however, that would not deal with the critical shortfall. As for our allies, I wish we still had any. At this point, the normal tendency of most of those we consider allies to oppose any actual effort by the US has been kicked into overdrive by “Teh Lightworker’s” deliberate snubs to our friends and fawning on our enemies have left us alone.

In point of fact, the only friends we can depend on implicitly are the Aussies. I love them, but they do not have the capability to help with this. The EU will be terrified, and will oppose us in self defense. The Brits are politically a dogs breakfast and paralysed. The Israelis will be subject to the normal restrictions, plus being concerned with their own survival.

Any planning assumption that posits allies in this, has sadly edged towards the realm of fantasy.

My own personal prescription, and it has been so for weeks here on BC, is that we prepare to haul ass because we cannot supply our forces. Classified materials and non-essential personnel should be on their way out. Equipment should be being drawn down. And preparations should be made to leave a wasteland where our bases were. The force should be optimizing for a fighting withdrawal.

When we lack both the will and ability to maintain a force surrounded by the enemy, the priority should be the withdrawal for that force intact unless it can only be done at too great a national cost. The problem of the Pakistani nukes is a separate matter, and I think only …… non-trivial means will suffice for that.

Subotai Bahadur.

@163 Cannoneer #4, sorry if I was confusing, sir, I don’t suggest we’re going to stay in Afghanistan. In the events we are imagining, we will be de-assing that place faster than Peachy Carnehan out of Kafiristan.

@161 Andy re: “Bush’s empty bluster” – tell it to Al Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan, tell it to Saddam and Al Qaeda in Iraq, tell it to AQ Khan, Gaddafi and his former WMD programs, etc. Comparing President Bush to today’s American Idol? hah. Oh, and the build-back of our military began under Bush, not the American Idol. Remember just last year when we were going to send 30,000 troops to Afghanistan, for starters? And now we’re supposed to believe sending 2/3 that many is a bold new offensive. hah.

@162 Bob, many Belmont Clubbers have not always “lived on the Internet” y’know.

Did some loco weed happen to get mixed in with your morning feed?

Your arguments are illogical and borders on the Democrat’s defeatist ideology.

This sort of drivel is usually the preserve of Joe Biden.

“private pressure put on …” sounds like something out of Slick Willy’s play book when trolling for interns.

You have cited no specifics, just generalities. And a plea to look beyond the words to his base, because apparently he is lying to them according to your formulation. It comes down to who he is lying to, his base, or us. Either way, he is not to be trusted.

If our SpecOps forces are going to go in and snatch or destroy the Pakistani nuclear deterrent, it will imply having the way prepared for them. Contacts have to have been made, deals cut, and detailed information as to what is where will have to be gathered as close to real time as possible. Key people will have to be “turned” or neutralized. THAT is the role of our intel folk. Who have just been told that their aft orifi are out hanging in the wind if they do anything.

Do you have any concept of exactly how large, and how dispersed the Pakistani nuclear inventory is? It is NOT necessarily all in one place, albeit there is a central depot. We are dealing with …. a non-trivial number of nuclear devices.

Here is some data, open source, that I published for a project I was involved with about 3 years ago. Neither the data, nor the project was classified. I will, however, redact certain portions. Believe it or not as you will:

————————————–

The majority of Pakistan’s nuclear deterrent is still carried in aircraft. #’s 16 and 25 Squadrons are equipped with Chinese
A-5 strike aircraft in the nuclear role. They are based at PAFB Peshawar. …[section redacted]

#’s 5, 7,8, and 22 Squadrons are equipped with variants of Mirage which may be nuclear capable.

7, 8, and 22 are based at PAFB Masroor near Karachi. There is also a major reactor complex near Karachi …. [redacted]

5 is based at PAFB Rafiqui near Shorkot. …[redacted]

#’s 9 and 11 Squadrons are equipped with F-16’s, which can be used in a nuclear strike role. They are based at PAFB
Sargodha, near the city of Sargodha. The base is also home to the Central Ammunition Depot, which has a major role in
storage of Pakistani nuclear weapons and missiles. The missiles may be stored:

Indian intelligence agencies are reported to believe that the missiles are stored in a sub-depot near the Central Ammunition
Depot at Sargodha on Kirana Hills [at 31°57'N 72°43'E] near Lahore. The Pakistani military has constructed storage sheds
for the missiles and mobile launchers, as well as related maintenance facilities and housing for launch crews. Reportedly
soldiers have also been sighted practicing simulated launches with advice from visiting Chinese experts.

….[redacted]

——————————
If the Paks have placed their nuclear deterrent on alert, there is an excellent chance that it will be at least in part dispersed, and the majority will be out of reach. Our people are good. They are not supermen, and there are not that many of them.

In addition, there are more than a few facilities that produce their weapons. They would have to be taken out too. Neither their nuclear operations forces, nor their production facilities are hardened. I assure you that a number of people in a number of places have contemplated means of dealing with them both. It is a non-trivial problem, and the means are extremely non-trivial to have any hope of an acceptable effectiveness.

I will believe that our forces will be allowed to deal with them, when I see it. NOTHING in the background or known actions of the NCA would indicate that such would occur.

As far as the matter of alternate routes that “we can buy”, for all practical purposes it will involve either Iran or the FSU “stans”. The latter would in all but one case involve revocable-at-will Russian permission. The strategic price for either would be more than we could afford.

The one case that would not involve Russia directly, would have started at a place called Poti, in Georgia. As we speak, it is under threat of Russian attack. In fact, statements by Russian officials seem to vindicate this explanation of how the Russians view the “Reset”/”Overcharge” button and the stated desire by Obama to change US/Russian relations. From the Jamestown Foundation:

The announced desire by the U.S. and NATO to “reset” relations seems to have been interpreted in Moscow as a vindication of the invasion of Georgia last August and a tacit recognition of Russia’s special rights and interests within the South Caucasus.
http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=34891&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=7&cHash=10cee5a7b3

Anybody remember April Glasbie? They seem to think they have been given US permission to attack Georgia, and incidentally to block the last supply route to Afghanistan not subject to enemy denial.

Subotai Bahadur

With BAF and KAF both glowing in the dark, you have no place to land 500 flights a day. Kabul International is all you have left. Shindand, Jalalabad, Camp Bastion are pretty much limited to C-130 and smaller. Bastion is gravel.

Without fuel, everything comes in with reduced payload because they have to carry their own return trip fuel. Long ways to go back to Kuwait or Qatar or Dubai. We lose Manas in two months, which seriously affects our aerial refueling capability.

Your entire wings of heliborne assault won’t have any go juice, either. Nearly all the JP-8 lit up when BAF did.