50 Comments

1. Batman:

Well, what do you know. I’m shocked to see that gambling is going on in this establishment!!!

May 23, 2009 - 9:42 pm 2. Walt:

Tribunal International knows
But somehow cannot find
The evidence that daily grows
(Perhaps they do not mind)
That some who live in Syria
With Hezbollahan pals
Did something, (I won’t weary ya
With relevant detals)
That kinda sorta looks a lot
Like murder cruel and foul
But uncrossed t’s and i’s sans dot
Prevent them acting now
But Spiegel now has spilled the beans
On one Majid Ghamlush
Whose cell phone call was just the means
To make him sort of shush
For he has disappeared I fear
From his home town of Rumin
And we shall never ever hear
From him I am assumin’
In Syria they smile and say
We don’t know naught what happen
We weren’t there that awful day
In fact we were home nappin’
Meanwhile the boss Assad sits tight
(He loved Rafik Hariri)
And says these killings are not right
And questions make him weary

May 23, 2009 - 10:44 pm 3. Willie G:

“Well, the evidence may point in that direction, but he hasn’t been convicted, you see. And besides, we can’t assume that all of the Party of God is bad just because they have a few bad members – so we’ll only talk to the nice folks in the “political” wing of the party.”

To the extent that our Sec. of State has even considered the idea, I’ll bet that’s the reasoning used.

I’m frankly astonished at the lack of critical thinking skills in those folks in D.C. with legal backgrounds. Is it something in the water?

May 24, 2009 - 4:57 am 4. JFSanders:

3. Willie G.:

Why would the lack of critical thinking skills astonish you? Most people at the stage of teen development haven’t acquired the necessary tools to develop those skills. We are dealing with developmentally disabled people in DC.

May 24, 2009 - 6:00 am 5. Wadeusaf:

If such records exist, and if the tribunal has them in hand, I would imagine they came from the Russian Embassy. As I recall a certain large crater creating bomb blast exploded near to that address three years ago?

It Seemed speculation at the time, but no one knew what the message was. No one knew exactly why the message needed sending. No one knew why such an exclamation point was needed, why No one knew anything of course. Seems there was a little mis-communication

And no one too, along with myself, is “shocked to see that gambling is going on in this establishment.” Hard to tell who is shuffling what cards, much less which deck is actually being played.

May 24, 2009 - 6:04 am 6. Lifeofthemind:

From Yes Minister:
Jim: Five standard excuses?
Sir Humphrey: Yes. First there’s the excuse we used for instance in the Anthony Blunt case.
Jim: Which was?
Sir Humphrey: That there is a perfectly satisfactory explanation for everything, but security forbids its disclosure. Second there is the excuse we used for comprehensive schools, that it only gone wrong because of heavy cuts in staff and budget which have stretched supervisory resources beyond the limits.
Jim: But that’s not true is it?
Sir Humphrey: No, but it’s a good excuse. Then there’s the excuse we used for Concorde, it was a worthwhile experiment, now abandoned, but not before it had provided much valuable data and considerable employment.
Jim: But that is true isn’t it? Oh no, of course it isn’t.
Sir Humphrey: The fourth, there’s the excuse we used for the Munich agreement. It occurred
                            before certain important facts were known, and couldn’t happen again
Jim: What important facts?
Sir Humphrey: Well, that Hitler wanted to conquer Europe.
Jim: I thought everybody knew that.
Sir Humphrey: Not the Foreign Office.
Jim: Five?
Sir Humphrey: Five, there’s the Charge of the Light Brigade excuse. It was an unfortunate lapse by an individual which has now been dealt with under internal disciplinary procedures.
- A Question of Loyalty

May 24, 2009 - 6:15 am 7. dave r:

“Pay no attention to the Syrians behind the curtain!” Look over here, quick!

Spot of misdirection going on, what?

May 24, 2009 - 6:17 am 8. Willie G:

JFSanders – There are none so blind as those who will not see.

You’re right, of course. What I was trying to understand is how these folks managed to get paid for anything before they rejoined the gov’t. To paraphrase Dan Ackroyd: “I’ve been in the private sector – they expect results.”

May 24, 2009 - 7:25 am 9. RAH:

Since Hezbolla used the assasination to consolidate military power in Lebanon especially at the airport this evidence make sense.
Probably a great power has decided it does not Hezbolla to control Lebabon and civil war or chaos is better and so found this evidence. Now what great power would that be?

The US?, no, Obama has no bias against Hezbolla. Israel? yes, they have the capablity and now the political will to do this. China? no national reason. Russia? maybe.

By process of elimination my guess this came from Israel. They have the intelligence to get this released in Lebanon being a neighbor and has agents in Lebanon.

So Israel does not want Hezbolla being used by Iran as a distraction in their coming action against Iran.

I see this as a prelude to Israeli action in Iran. Stay tuned folks for the next saga in the Middle East

May 24, 2009 - 8:24 am 10. JFSanders:

Willie G.:

If you look at the history of these guys. They generally get appointed from some campus to be the resident KIA for some gov’t agency. It is who you know, you know. Then they use that post to get a spot on some other campus that pays them more because they have gov’t experience which leads to an incredible merry go round of insanity.

Kind of like a swirling toilet bowl… And the best part is “WE” the taxpayer get to fund it all!

Then once they have reached a certain level they begin to appoint their friends to low level posts. And the cycle of life repeats.

As for the elected ones. It was once said, “Anyone who would seek elected office should not have it. It should be thrust upon those who shun it and openly hate it.” maybe G. Washington.

May 24, 2009 - 8:41 am 11. Derek:

>I’m frankly astonished at the lack of critical thinking skills in those folks in D.C. with legal backgrounds. Is it something in the water?

This is an attempt to set up an opposing force to Iran. The Arabs don’t like the Persians, and most arab states are of Iran’s ascendancy. So strengthen the Syrians, Egyptians and Saudis, help the gulf states, ’stabilize’ them, to counteract Iran. ‘Democracy’ movements are in our fearless leader’s words, a distraction.

In other words, let’s recreate the conditions that Bush tore apart. And if the Israelis would only be reasonable and make peace with the Palestinians, then it will all work. Peace in our time.

Derek

May 24, 2009 - 8:47 am 12. Herb:

JFSanders: “We are dealing with developmentally disabled people in DC.”

Im sorry but I have to jump you on that. Developmental Disability is not something people can help and should not be an epithet directed at the current regime. My observation of the Developmentally Disabled is that they are quite frequently extremely nice people.

Willful ignorance, willful negligence, conspiracy to conceal a felony, corruption, are more accurate descriptions.

May 24, 2009 - 9:35 am 13. JFSanders:

12. Herb:

My adopted(not legally) son Andy. (He lives just down the street at a assisted living facility for Downs syndrome children. Friend of my youngest son) Works for a local grocery store. He said to tell you that he thinks those people in DC are just that. But he agrees it isn’t GOD who made them that way. He says they choose it. But then again Andy is not a very PC kinda guy.

But, hey I will meet you half way and take that part back. I still think they are stuck on stupid to quote a certain General who has his !@#$ squared away.

May 24, 2009 - 9:57 am 14. Herb:

13 JFS
Andy has a good set of friends.
We agree.

May 24, 2009 - 10:48 am 15. whiskey:

Wretchard — this is the outcome of domestic politics. Specifically, Pelosi (and Obama’s) jihad against the CIA. The CIA knows well that Pelosi faces no consequences for calling them liars, and will whenever she can prosecute them for “torture” aka pouring water up Khalid Sheik Mohammed’s nose to find out what the plans were to kill thousands/millions of Americans.

So this is the start of the Cold Civil War.

Obama voted Present, which was really with Pelosi, since the CIA knows well that Obama could have forced her to apologize and step down (by calling for it publicly). Obama wishes to retain the ability to create witch-hunts not just among the Bush people but the CIA. Cheney cleverly defended the CIA at length in his speech and the Republicans in Congress have done so as well.

Therefore, this is just the first leak among many to sabotage or make Obama’s policies look stupid. He’s engaging the Regime that ordered the hit on Harriri. Well, now he’s known to be doing so, and I’m sure other humiliating information (about Syris’s nuclear weapons program in conjuction with Iran and North Korea) will soon come to light.

What was suddenly “found” and put out in public was the CIA’s fight against Obama. One he himself picked and cannot back away from: one must destroy the other. Since no deal Obama makes will be believed, he’s just not trustworthy, given his habitual betrayals. Good perhaps for legislative small time crooks, bad for a President.

May 24, 2009 - 1:04 pm 16. Cadmus:

The plot thickens. The tribunal of course denies it leaked any info and does not confirm or deny the report.

The actual report goes beyond Ghamlush, to say:

“Ghamlush’s recklessness led investigators to the man they now suspect was the mastermind of the terrorist attack: Hajj Salim, 45,” Spiegel said.

Salim, who hails from Nabatiyeh is considered to be the commander of the “military” wing of Hizbullah and lives in Beirut’s southern suburbs, it said, adding that Salim’s secret “Special Operational Unit” reports directly to Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah.

Salim assumed the duties of his slain predecessor Imad Mughniyeh along wit the latter’s brother-in-law, Mustafa Badr al-Din, serving as his deputy. The two men report only to their superior, and to General Kassim Sulaimani, their contact in Tehran, according to Spiegel International

It added that the Syrians President Assad is no longer in the line of fire:

“Hardly anything suggests anymore that he was personally aware of the murder plot or even ordered the killing.”

For the record, Mughniyeh was Hizbullah’s military guru credited with building the organizations capabilities and tactics. He was blown up in Damascus more than a year ago. The Syrians threatened to make their investigations public, and sent several accusatory arrows in many directions. And then fell quite.

The tribunal had insisted that all investigations pointed directly at Assad and his regime. That was the basis for holding the four generals from Lebanon as Syria’s agents in all this.

The investigators spoke of the same cell phones and calls they are talking about now. Only all that somehow pointed in a completely different direction for four years.

It is important to note here that another media report from New York a few days ago pointed the finger at Dick Cheney’s “Death Squads” in the Hariri killing and the murder of Pakistan’s Benazir Buto. Hmmm!

The real question is why this sudden introduction of all these multiple accusations in the media? What political motivation lies behind them?

Hariri’s murder was no ordinary killing in any stretch of the imagination. This was probably the most sophisticated and complex plan ever hatched. It involved multiple explosions, sophisticated jamming devises, and extensive duplicate networks of people and subsequent manipulations and cover-ups.

Maybe Hizbulah was involved. But, it certainly would not have been alone.

Consider the following facts about the murder, which are public knowledge, yet not brought up in any of the professional discussions of the case.

 The explosion supposedly involved over one ton of C-4 and TNT that created a crater in the road more than 20 feet deep and about 30 feet wide. Rocks and pavement were strewn more than 200 yards away. Near by building were badly damaged, with concrete chunks torn off, and glass shattered up to half a Kilometer away.

 Hariri’s car was barely damaged. The doors could open with ease – we watched rescuers open the doors and remove live people from the car on TV – and the car actually was driven from the scene hours later.

 Hariri’s body was completely mangled from the waste down, but the upper torso and head were intact. The cabinet member, sitting next to Hariri, was burned to a crisp, but remains alive – he died in the hospital almost three months later. He was helped out of the car with clothes tattered, but awake and walking.

 Cars 200 yards away were crushed with debris from the crater, but cars 50 yards away were intact.

Now one does not need to be an explosive expert to know that an explosion that powerful would damage the car and at least wedge the doors closed. For the explosion to kill Hariri inside, it would have to go through the car’s shell and thus do some serious damage to the car before.

The nature of the damage to Hariri’s body, and the survival of the cabinet member next to him would suggest a small incendiary devise inside the car, in addition to the large explosion outside to insure his death. Had the exterior explosion been more accurate and not miss the car, this would not be evident.

There is also the inconclusive debate regarding the explosion being below ground or above ground. Clearly the pick-up truck exploded, as it was torn to little pieces, with some landing in the sea several hundred yards away. The driver was almost vaporized.

But, such an above ground explosion would not explain the nature of the scattering of the debris. All explosive experts say that the extensive damage on the far side and the near lack of damage closer in indicates an under ground explosion.

Additionally, Hariri had one of the most sophisticated jamming devises installed in his car. When he drove by, no cell phones would work within half a kilometer. On that day, cell phones continued to work as he drove by. Two of those killed and lost in shuffle were talking on the phone when the explosion occurred, which is how their relatives knew they were there and went looking for them.

Curiously we now have a tribunal at a cost of more than $50 million dollars a year, which truly does not have a single suspect to put on trial. I wonder what the $50 million is spent on.

This is looking more and more like the PamAm 103 investigation. Then we had names and bank accounts for money transfers from Iran to Syria to the Palestinian Rejection Front. We even had the name of girlfriend of a Lebanese drug deal who carried the Cocaine laden suite case onto the plane, supposedly used because the CIA was letting it slide past inspection to track the line to the US as part of the Narco-Terrorism investigation.

Then suddenly, when we needed Syria’s help against Saddam, all that became fiction, and two low level Libyan lackeys became the only culprits. A new suite case, new route, etc. Only the lackeys, not Kaddafi. Syria is exonerated; sanctions are imposed on Libya until it paid $2 Billion dollars and handed the two over a few years later.

Fast forward a few years. Kaddafi exposes AQ Khan’s nuclear proliferation scheme and hands us the proof and materials. The two lackeys are exonerated and released for lack of evidence.

Who blew up flight 103? What happened to all the iron-clad evidence?

I do not believe we will ever have an answer to Hariri’s murder. This is all political BS designed to gain leverage over one party or another.

There will be much more claims and accusation. Stay tuned.

Cadmus

May 24, 2009 - 1:14 pm 17. Fat Man:

Why would that bit of evidence require more than the phone company billing records?

May 24, 2009 - 1:27 pm 18. s:

First of all the Leb elections are in June and hez is running strong. what a nice addtion to the election cycle to stir up some trouble.

Second Syria hyad a few generals, specifically the head of its intel apparatus in Leb bite the blue pill after house arrest. then there was that little car bomb incident in Damascus proper that reportedly involved a general.

syria acted very guilty in trying to tie up the loose ends that could leave a paper trail. Maybe that is just preventative planning? however one must consider that the timing of such a revelation is totally suspect with the new found engagement and the election cycle coming.

when Hez’s Mug was killed there was speculation at the time that the Syrian regime may have been behind the hit.

As for Chenney, the assasinationn of Bhutto defies explanation. the wnite episode was so sureal from the actual attack to the explanation to the no autopsy to the accounts after of how she most certainly did not hit her head on the sunroof and cause head truama. And then there is the no security detail. Why would the US want her dead? She was overt about fighting the Taliban in the SWAT. That killing which has been left untouched deserves an equal amount of investigation that has heretofore not been forthcoming.

May 24, 2009 - 4:33 pm 19. Earlg:

How will this information/news affect Hezbollah in June 7th elections?

I’m afraid in the event of a Hezbollah win – Victory, as it would/will be called in Lebanon & Iran – we would almost certainly see the creation of the Third Republic, call it Iranistan:

In the aftermath of a crippling civil war, an accord was reached in 1989 forming “the second republic.” Under this agreement, the president would always be a Christian, the prime minister a Sunni and the speaker of parliament a Shiite.

Hezbollah and its allies are campaigning under the slogan “The Third Republic.” Hezbollah wants it all….

Iran wants it all.

Without an Israel.

May 24, 2009 - 5:45 pm 20. Mad Fiddler:

Dear Cadmus,

Perhaps your assertions would have a little more weight – enough to make someone consider them other than delusional – if you cited some sources for’em. Otherwise, they fly in the face of what is known in other instances.

For example, the Oklahoma City bombing created a crater on a similar scale to the one you describe, without requiring the supposition of a conspiracy beyond a handful of participants.

Quite frankly, your lurid description of a hand-carried jamming device that could selectively disable all cell phones within half a kilometer (i.e., 500 meters) is a frog just a little too big for me to swallow. How’s the guy supposed to communicate with anyone outside his own vehicle, semaphore???

And it’s not unheard of for the specific geometry of a detonation to leave “shadow areas” where there is substantially less damage. If the charge is placed below grade, the earth itself would act as a conical shield, deflecting the force upward, and debris over a proximal region.

Any demolition professionals out there care to comment?

May 24, 2009 - 6:38 pm 21. Wadeusaf:

What it is all about,

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zBxTrmBbV7k

Whether Hezbollah or Syrian security groups (I consider them to be one and the same in the environs of Lebanon still) that done the dirty deed, Hezbollah has consistently shown no respect for UN resolutions, has pulled Lebanon into two destructive military actions one against Israel and one against the army and people of Lebanon.

Syria and Iran have supported fed nurtured and armed Hezbollah for years. For Hezbollah to act in the bomb blast it would need the information that Syrian officials and high ranking Lebanese officals could provide, as they were in control of Lebanon at the time. They would need the cover of both Syria and Lebanese allies and perhaps most important they would need the approval of Iran (if they weren’t operating under direct orders) to assassinate the PM of Lebanon.

The only time we needed help from Syria was to cement a coalition to kick Saddam out of Kuwait. We have not needed them, nor has Syria been especially friendly since 1990.

Fat man, about 8 disposable phones, the phones of choice among gang bangers and drug pushers everywhere because they cannot be traced without the bill of sale or some indication of what lot they were sold in. Der Speigle speculated in a story that eight phones bought at the same time by the amorous Abd al-Majid Ghamlush, were used to communicate only with 20 other phones, and discarded once the bomb went off. One call outside of the circle of 20 was traced to the guys girlfriend. Creating a link to the time, place, ability and opportunity. Motive provided by the increasing pressure on Syria to leave Lebanon and the potential disarmament of Hezbollah’s military wing, at the time called a militia described as only for self defense and arguing they should not be forced to disarm in accordance to UN resolutions.

Ghamlush disappeared, as did most folks associated with those phones. I believe the generals lives were spared cause they were incarcerated. I think they too may have disappeared, otherwise.

Of course it is all speculation, unless the tribunal acknowledges the report is true. They are not saying and Der Speigle is not giving up names.

May 24, 2009 - 8:25 pm 22. whiskey:

Somewhat OT, or perhaps not, North Korea lit off a nuke.

I imagine the CIA will have leaks on that as well, saying they “warned” Obama and were told not to worry, Hope and Change will take care of everything.

May 24, 2009 - 9:39 pm 23. Robohobo:

re: whiskey @22: It is 3am and the phone is ringing in the WH. Is anyone there to answer? Or will he have Michelle take a message.

“Its 3am I must be lonely”

Other news is that Bibi is telling his base at home that he did not agree to abide with The 0bamanations requirements.

What is the next one coming down the pipeline?

There is no surprise that Hez or Syria was complicit with Harriri’s death. None.

I think the bills may be coming due for the current crop in DC.

May 24, 2009 - 10:50 pm 24. Cadmus:

Earlg:

The president was a Christian, the Prime Minister Sunni and the Speaker Shiite before the Taef accord. The Taef accord stripped the Christian president of almost all his powers in lieu of the Sunni Prime minister and Shiite Speaker, among many other changes at the expense of the Christians.

The “Third Republic” is not a Hizbullah slogan. It is a Christian slogan for a Republic in which the President regains at least some of his powers, corruption is brought under control, and Lebanon regains its true sovereignty. This is an objective put forth by General Aoun, who fought the Syrians in 1990 – betrayed by the west for Kuwait – and who has been arguing for returning the powers to the president and re-establishing balance in the country.

Hizbullah, under pressure from the Sunnis has apparently found that a balance is better than Sunni domination. It is merely a tactical move that is balanced against negotiations with the Sunnis.

The Saudis do not want that, as they want to protect their dominion through Hariri the son and other Sunnis. They parade this as a Hizbullah take over to get the West to help them prevent the Christians from regaining any power, without having to give Hizbullah anything.

Wadeusaf

I live the pictures on Youtube. I do not need a reminder. For the record, many of those who claim to be in the Cedar Revolution, like Jumblat are the main culprits in all this, and were Syria’s primary partners in inflicting all this damage on Lebanon. They only pretended to shift sides after the Syrians left it seemed like the US and Saudis had the upper hand for the moment. Listen to where they are today. They are praising Hizbullah everyday.

Mad Fidler:

The jamming devise exists, anyone who has been in proximity to US convoys in the Middle East or to Hariri’s car will testify to the loss of cell phone connections. You are free to ignore this fact, but ignorance is not a good excuse for insults.

I specifically referred to an underground explosion as the only explanation of that kind of damage. However the evidence points to two other explosions as well. One explosion, which pulverized a pick-up truck that was clearly exploded from within. The other clearly placed inside Hariri’s car that killed him and burned the other Cabinet member.

If any one disagrees, then please explain how an explosion exterior to a car can tear one man to pieces and burn the other and shred his clothes without ever penetrating the shell of the car. The car was intact.

Keep in mind, international investigators did not get to the scene for days. In the mean time, the site was cleaned, and some of the area bulldozed. The damaged cars were removed, and much of the debris as well. That made the investigator’s job so much harder.

The question is not who planted the bombs, but rather who wanted him dead? Who stood to benefit from the murder? Who was he putting at risk? Whose interest does his killing serve or harm? Who interfered and misdirected the investigation?

There are many who fit a “yes” answer to one of those questions. Where is the “King Witness” who miraculously managed to disappear from France, reappear in the UAE, and then disappear again? Acting alone?

The Syrians should not be absolved of responsibility, as in my opinion, they remain the primary suspects. However, they did not act because Hariri wanted them out of Lebanon, as has been paraded in the news. Hariri was acting as a conduit for Saudi help for a Sunni overthrow of the Alawite regime in Syria. He helped finance and supply the potential coup.

That was the main reason they withdrew so quickly from Lebanon. Otherwise, they would have remained after killing him. But, the Alawites needed to protect themselves on their home turf. The Syrian generals killed – suicided – were involved in that attempted coup. A Sunni Syrian Vice President, Abdul Halim Khaddam, the most prominent old guard escaped to France at the same time. He has admitted that he was working with the Moslem brotherhood to topple the regime.

But, that was when the Saudis and the West were seeking regime change in Syria.

Today, for many reason, the aim is behavioral change, not regime change. The aim is to get Syria to break ranks with Iran and get close to Saudi politics in the region. It is widely suspected that the killing of Mughniyeh in Damascus was a Syrian signal that they are willing to play along. Diverting the investigation away from Syria is a counter signal.

The deal will have to involve the end of Hizbullah’s arms. So it may be that this fingering of Hizbullah is the lead towards that end.

Disarming Hizbullah would be a good thing. But, for that to happen, Israel has to stay out of it. An Israeli attack on Lebanon will only re-establishes Hizbullah’s credence, inflict a lot of damage on the country that Hizbullah will not have to bear and prevent a deal from happening.

The deal can only work if it is done via a re-armed Lebanese Army capable of defending the country and keeping Syria, Israel and all others out. Only thus, can the Shiite majority be brought along.

By the way, the PC distinction between Hizbullah’s “armed wing” as terrorists, and its “political wing” as acceptable, is a whole lot BS. They all report to one head, Nasrallah, and should be treated as one.

Cadmus

May 24, 2009 - 11:34 pm 25. Mike Sylwester:

Nibras Kazimi says:

Clearly the [Spiegel] author, Erich Follath, got this from Lebanese sources–identified as “sources close to the investigation,” and later “…According to the Lebanese security forces” — with the goal of influencing the outcome of the parliamentary elections next month. This circumstancial evidence (…nowhere in the article is there a direct link between the two cell phone networks) cited seems to have been kicked up to the investigators under Bellemare “about a month” ago. If Wisam Eid uncovered it, then why wasn’t the evidence handed over earlier? (Eid was assassinated in Jan. 2008)

First problem is that the story says that alleged Hezbollah operative Abdel-Majid Ghamlush was identified as the buyer of the mobile phones, but it doesn’t tell us if he was the one who bought the first set of eight that were directly tied to the assassination, or the phones were the twenty mentioned in the “second circle of hell”.

It would stand to reason that Hezbollah operatives were in downtown Beirut monitoring things, but that would be routine, nothing with ‘clear’ criminal intent.

Then there’s the clincher: “They have apparently discovered which Hezbollah member obtained the small Mitsubishi truck used in the attack”. There’s no qualification for the word “apparently” and this tidbit, the only one talking about a direct link, is unsourced.

To me, this is propaganda. Also note that chief investigator under Mehlis, Gerhard Lehmann, is now working for the Saudis.

I’ve always maintained that there are plenty of reasons to denounce the Iranians, the Syrians and Hezbollah, without pegging the legitimacy of these outfits on a purported role or lack thereof in the Hariri murder.

talismangate.blogspot.com/2009/05/quick-links-for-weekend_24.html

May 25, 2009 - 5:18 am 26. Wadeusaf:

Cadmus,

The u tube wasn’t necessarily for you. I agree the distinction between wings is just PC, a label to avoid disarming.

Is the Lebanese Army is still about 65,000, so I guess a fair guess would be 35,000 effective troops strong? Can it be enlarged and trained up without losing cohesion? If not then who will disarm Hezbollah? It is not within the UN mandate. It is not within Syria’s interests not even now, and the money and operations link between Hezbollah and Iran is strong so any attempt to disarm it would be a mere show while new weapons are procured.

A massive crater creating car bomb will have certain and sure effects on beings and objects. I doubt however the car that was the focus of this blast was drivable after. How many others died in the very low tech detonation in the middle of the motorcade was it seven or was it thirteen?

http://www.assassinology.org/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderpictures/.pond/hariri-assassination-crater.jpg.w300h188.jpg

The assassination was carried out knowing they could not be precise about the timing or about the location of Hariri’s vehicle within the motorcade. They used a car bomb and suicide bomber.

Either way it shows a determined amount of pre-planning and a knowledge of routes or at least the ability to determine where or influence the direction of travel. They planned and then waited until the cars took a favorable route and all the other ducks were in place.

Then after the deed was done an unknown and unheard of since terrorist group took credit for the murder claiming Hariri’s Saudi connections as a reason. Hariri’s company did work for the Saudi Goverment on a major construction project. The confession was quickly and easily discredited by Lebanese authorities and ignored.

Hariri was working with the Syrians to attain Lebanese sovereignty. He was working with Christians and with the other large factions to negotiate an end to Syrian occupation. He was a major mover and shaker of the Taef accords, and worked with Lahoude attaining a successful result. His efforts were paying off. The only groups that routinely used assassination and especially car bombs were Hezbollah and Syria. Otherwise only reactionaries aligned with Christian factions are suspect, but I do not think they had the opportunity or information required to pull it off, but then anyone can build a car bomb.

May 25, 2009 - 5:34 am 27. Wadeusaf:

In reading the Der Speigle article I gathered that the eight phones were a part of the “circle of hell”, and not additional to it.

However as talisman pointed out it is none of it well sourced. And none of it verifiable.

Syria has yet to answer some very important questions, or cooperate in the investigation according to this conclusion of the Mehlis Report on the Hariri assassination:
REPORT OF THE INTERNATIONAL INDEPENDENT INVESTIGATION COMMISSION ESTABLISHED PURSUANT TO SECURITY COUNCIL RESOLUTION 1595 (2005) – October 21, 2005.

“209. It is the Commission’s conclusion that, after having interviewed witnesses and suspects in the Syrian Arab Republic and establishing that many leads point directly towards Syrian security officials as being involved with the assassination, it is incumbent upon Syria to clarify a considerable part of the unresolved questions. While the Syrian authorities, after initial hesitation, have cooperated to a limited degree with the Commission, several interviewees tried to mislead the investigation by giving false or inaccurate statements. The letter addressed to the Commission by the Foreign Minister of the Syrian Arab Republic proved to contain false information. The full picture of the assassination can only be reached through an extensive and credible investigation that would be conducted in an open and transparent manner to the full satisfaction of international scrutiny.”

22 people died in the above ground detonation and blast. In a meeting with Syrian leader Assad Mr Hariri was not once but twice threatened with a bomb if the wishes of Syria were not respected.

Also from the report:

Use of Prepaid Telephone Cards 144. Investigations by both the ISF and Military Intelligence have led to six pre-paid calling cards, which telephone records demonstrate were instrumental in the planning of the assassination. Beginning at approximately 1100 hrs on 14 February 2005, cell site records show that cellular telephones utilizing these six calling cards were located in the area stretching from the Nejmeh Square to the St. George Hotel, within a few-block radius and made numerous calls with each other and only with each other. The phones were situated so that they covered every route linking the Parliament to Kuraytem Palace: that is, cellsite records demonstrate that these telephones were placed to cover any route that Hariri would have taken that day. One of the cellphones located near the Parliament made four calls with the other telephone lines at 1253 hrs — the time that Mr. Hariri’s convoy left the Nejmeh Square . The calls — and all usage on the cards — terminated at 1253 hrs on 14 February, a few minutes before the blast. The lines have all been inactive since.

145. Further investigation has revealed that these six lines — along with two others — were put into circulation on the 4 January 2005, after calling number 1456 activated them. They were all activated at the same location in northern Lebanon between Terbol and Menyeh. Since they were first purchased in early January 2005, until the time of the explosion, the lines only had calls with each other. In that time period, until the assassination, there appears to be a correlation between their location and Hariri’s movements, suggesting that they might have been used to follow Hariri’s movements in that time period.

146. The Commission, in conjunction with the Lebanese authorities, continued the investigation of the origin of these telephone lines. The six pre-paid cards originated, along with four others, from the Powergroup Company, Beirut, a store owned by a reportedly active member of Al-Ahbash with close ties to Sheikh Ahmad Abdel-Al.

According to company records, the lines were delivered to the store’s Tripoli branch.

One of the employees of that Tripoli store reported that on the 30 December 2004, he received a telephone call from Raed Fakhreddin, the owner of another cell shop in Tripoli and the nephew of Tarek Ismat Fakhreddin, a prominent businessman and consultant to former Lebanese prime minister Omar Karame. Raed Fakhreddin reportedly urgently wanted to buy 10 prepaid cards; the Tripoli store employee noted that the inquiry itself was unusual as Raed Fakhreddin did not customarily buy lines from the Tripoli store nor

37 typically have commercial dealings with the Tripoli store other than mobile handset purchases. However, the ten calling cards bearing these particular lines were located, and Raed Fakhreddin sent a messenger to pick up the calling cards bearing these lines from the Tripoli store. That messenger reported to the Commission that he paid $700 USD in cash at the Tripoli store to purchase these ten lines and deliver them to Raed Fakhreddin.

The forms legally required for purchasing cellular lines were not filled out that day, however, but rather over two weeks after the lines had been sold, on 12 January 2005.

The supporting identification required for the purchase, which was provided by Raed Fakhreddin, proved to be false. On 14 September 2005, the ISF arrested Raed Fakhreddin, along with others involved in the transfer and sale of these calling cards.

Raed Fakhreddin was subsequently interviewed as a suspect by the Commission. In that interview, while he admitted that he purchased the lines, he denied any knowledge of the use of six of the lines in connection with the Hariri assassination.

147. Of the ten mobile phones used in connection with these ten cellular telephone cards, five have been traced to a store in Tripoli.

Conclusion: The investigation of the prepaid telephone cards is one of the most important leads in this investigation in terms of who was actually on the ground executing the assassination. This is a line of investigation that needs to be pursued thoroughly.

Jamming Devices 148. Hariri’s convoy included three vehicles equipped with jamming devices, designed to disturb the signals of remote-controlled IED.

Interestinger and Interestinger

May 25, 2009 - 6:16 am 28. Cadmus:

I love a rational discussion Wadeusaf and Mike Sylwester.

Upon the recommendation of Mehlis, based on the info in the report you site, two Lebanese and a Syrian were arrested. The two Lebanese were members of Sunni Fundamentalist group.

Those arrests and interrogations lead to the arrests of the four generals and pointing the finger at President Lahoud and the Syrian Government. They admitted buying the phone cards.

Interestingly, those three were released from prison in March without a clear explanation, and have since disappeared. That was long before Belmare called for releasing the generals.

Now we hear this evidence about Hizbullah purchasing phones.

The point was well made regarding Wissam Eid. Why did that information take this long before it appeared.

Wissam Eid was investigating the murder of the Operations Chief of the Lebanese army, Hajj, when he got killed. Hajj led the offensive on the Al-Qaida guys, Fath Al Islam, in Nahr Al Bared, and they had threatened revenge. It is almost certain his death is not related to this story. He is believed to have found evidence regarding Hajj’s death, and died while trying to deliver it to court.

Again who would have that kind of detailed info to intercept that delivery?

This is so convoluted; it makes the most experienced heads spin.

As far as cooperation is concerned and the UN reports, they made my head spin. At one point Syria is not cooperating, another they are fully cooperating, then not… Then we have a list of seven states, including the Saudi Arabia, US and Israel that are accused of hiding info, etc.

Election propaganda is not beyond rational conclusion. Certainly the timing is suspect.

But, the more important question is: Why exonerate the Syrians? That is were the focus should be. If Hizbullah’s opponents in Lebanon are the one’s introducing this story, aren’t these supposed to be Anti-Syrian? They could have accused Hizbullah and kept Syria on the hook very easily. Why let off? Something to consider in this tangled web.

You are right about the size of Lebanese Army. It is very well trained and capable. It can be enlarged, but more importantly it requires a serious modernization and upgrade of its weapons. So far we have we have had the insane “vicious circle” argument. No one will arm the Lebanese Army before it disarms Hizbullah, and it cannot disarm Hizbullah without being properly armed.
Cohesion is not a problem. Soldiers of all sects are hard-line “Lebanese” and committed to the unity of the country. The Nahr Al Bared war proved that beyond doubt. Sunni fundamentalists tested the Mantel of the Lebanese Army and people in 2007, believing that if they fight in the name of Sunni Islam, they will split the Army and get the Sunni majority in the North on their side. The Army became even more united, and the Sunni support for the Army was even more intense than others. Shiites all fell behind the army too.

If these were Shiite fundamentalists the reaction would have very similar. The overwhelming majority of the population is dead opposed to any internal fighting, the futility of which they have experienced first hand.

Hizbullah knows the sentiment of its public. At the onset of the Bared war, Hizbullah proclaimed attacking the camp a red line, not because it likes the Sunnis, but because they feared setting an example and proving what it already know that the Army will not fall apart.

It later changed its tune and began to sing praises to the Army.

It has recently changed their tune to repeatedly claim it will lay down its weapons when the Army is capable to defend the South. Of course they are hoping the world will continue to deny Lebanon that capability. But, if the world surprises them, they will have a hard time making an argument.

A direct military confrontation will only give Hizbullah the necessary propaganda tools and get the Shiites to band together. If the Army is properly equipped and capable of securing the South – and the international community puts enough pressure on Israel to stop violating Lebanon’s airspace several times a day, resolve the Shebaa farms issue politically, etc. – then Hizbullah’s argument for its weapons will disappear. The majority of Shiites who prefer the Army and peaceful coexistence, and who do not feel threatened will no longer support its arms.

It will be disarmed without destroying the country. It may take some time, but save a lot of lives, etc.

This is Hizbullah’s greatest fear. And, they will do anything to avoid it. Wars are what keep them alive.

35 years of war – 45 in South Lebanon – are enough to make anyone tired.

Cadmus

May 25, 2009 - 8:22 am 29. Cadmus:

Here are two stories related to the subject from Lebanon today.

Analysts: Claim That Hizbullah Killed Hariri Dangerous
A report that Hizbullah was behind the 2005 assassination of ex-premier Rafik Hariri is a dangerous claim, which could spark civil strife as Lebanon prepares to hold crunch elections, analysts believe.
“If the Special Tribunal for Lebanon comes out and confirms the report, we could be facing an all-out civil war,” Paul Salem, head of the Beirut-based Carnegie Middle East Center, told Agence France Presee (AFP) of the U.N.-backed probe into the murder.
“On the other hand, it could be just a report in a newspaper.”
Germany’s Der Spiegel news magazine reported on Saturday that the U.N. commission probing the Hariri murder had new evidence that Hizbullah Special Forces “planned and executed” the Beirut car bombing on February 14, 2005.
The attack killed the billionaire former premier and 22 other people.
“We don’t know where they are getting the story from,” a spokeswoman for the prosecutor at The Hague-based tribunal said.
“The office of the prosecutor doesn’t comment on any issues related to operational aspects of the investigation.”
Hizbullah chief Hassan Nasrallah was expected to address the allegations late on Monday in a speech marking the ninth anniversary of the Israeli withdrawal in 2000 from southern Lebanon after 22 years.
Der Spiegel’s claims come ahead of a June 7 election pitting Lebanon’s U.S.- and Saudi-backed parliamentary majority against an alliance headed by the Shiite Hizbullah, supported by Syria and Iran.
Hizbullah called the report “pure fabrication” and a bid to influence the election and deflect attention from a crackdown on alleged Israeli spy networks.
Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Muallem called the report “lies which undermine the international investigation.”
Amal Saad-Ghorayeb, an expert on Hizbullah, said although the majority in Lebanon has so far refrained from capitalizing on the allegations, the tables could turn at any moment.
“I would say the very dangerous implications it could have had have fizzled out, particularly as no officials of the majority camp have used it,” she said. “But if (the majority) uses the report against Hizbullah, then of course we’re going to see instability in Lebanon, and that’s putting it mildly.”
Last May, sectarian violence sparked by a spectacular power grab by Hizbullah in mainly Sunni parts of Beirut led to more than 110 deaths and took Lebanon close to another civil war.
Analysts questioned the timing of the Der Spiegel report, saying it was no coincidence it came before the elections and amid the espionage crackdown.
“The nature of the report is provocative, its timing is far from naive and, coupled with the Israeli reaction, it is a clear attempt to incite unrest,” said Fadia Kiwan, head of political science at Beirut’s Saint Joseph University.
“One word could set the streets on fire.”
Israel on Sunday reacted to the report by urging the arrest of Nasrallah.
Der Spiegel said Hizbullah is implicated in Hariri’s murder through the discovery of two linked mobile phone networks belonging to the group’s “operational arm.”
It said a secret unit of Lebanese security forces, led by intelligence expert Captain Wissam Eid, filtered out the numbers before Eid was himself murdered in January 2008.
A Hizbullah commando unit is also thought to be behind Eid’s killing, Der Spiegel said.
Saad-Ghorayeb called the reference to Eid and his unit a bid to sow discord between Hizbullah and state security services, which have been cooperating on the spy rings.
Since January Lebanon has charged at least 18 suspects, including a retired general, with spying for Israel.
“There are so many powers that would want to implicate Hizbullah in this and tarnish its reputation before the election,” Saad-Ghorayeb said. “But most people don’t buy the report.
“The evidence is way too flimsy.”(AFP)
Hariri Declines Comment on Der Spiegel Article: This Is Press Talk, STL Will Be the Judge
MP Saad Hariri on Monday declined to comment on a report that Hizbullah was allegedly behind the murder of ex-Premier Rafik Hariri and said the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) decides on who the real perpetrators are.
Germany’s Der Spiegel news magazine reported on Saturday that the U.N. commission probing the Hariri murder had new evidence that Hizbullah special forces “planned and executed” the Beirut car bombing on February 14, 2005. The explosion killed Hariri and 22 others.
Reacting to the article, MP Hariri said: “There are many newspapers that publish reports about the international tribunal. We always say the tribunal is the entity that will identify and decide who committed the murder.
“This is why we consider all that is being said in the newspapers as merely press talk and we have no comment on it,” he added.
He also refused to comment on press reports that the Der Spiegel article had been written in Lebanon.
“In the past we used to read accusations left and right,” he said.
“We insist that the international tribunal will decide. Public Prosecutor Daniel Bellemare clearly and bluntly commented on what has been published. We support what he says and what comes out of the tribunal,” Hariri insisted.
Separately, Hariri and visiting Russian foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov laid a wreath at Rafik Hariri’s grave.
“Russia has always supported Lebanon when it comes to international resolution either with regards to the tribunal or Resolution 1701,” Hariri said later.
“It cares about Lebanon’s sovereignty and independence and … (wants to make sure) there is no external meddling in Lebanese affairs,” he added.
Hariri praised Lebanese-Russian ties pointing to Russia’s “significant” military assistance for the Lebanese army. He said Moscow recently provided the Lebanese army with 10 MiG-29 aircrafts.
Hariri voiced hope for more cooperation between the two countries including in the economic sector.
On the elections, Hariri said he was confident the current majority will emerge as winner and will convey “the right message.”
“The people know us and know the nature of our campaign and what kind of Lebanon we want. We want a Lebanon that is flourishing on the economic level and is stable on the level of security,” he said.

May 25, 2009 - 8:43 am 30. Wadeusaf:

“It will be disarmed without destroying the country. It may take some time, but save a lot of lives, etc.

“This is Hizbullah’s greatest fear. And, they will do anything to avoid it. Wars are what keep them alive.”

Nasrallah is like Al Sadr. He may even be a little smarter than Al Sadr. It may be that a little bit of truth goes along way. I do not for a moment think Hezbollah is innocent, or that it would disarm willingly. Too many flights between S. America and Iran are continuing for no good reasons, with Hez becoming the main instigation tool of the Mullahs in a number of places.

There has been cooperation from some individual Syrians at times within the Syrian government, but not from the Syrian government in investigating involvement in Hariri’s murder. Hezbollah has taken its cue in the matter from Assad. Two members of the Axis of evil and a willing accomplice. If I were Lebanese I would try to kick up some dirt against them too, to keep my country out of their murderous hands.
I do not understand, Cadmus. I have resurrected the rumors about Hariri and the allegations against the Saudis clumsily made and discredited. You have not supported your claims, Cadmus. You seem willing to let them swallow Lebanon
whole. It appears to me to be irrational and self defeating behavior. Why? Explain to me, please, how I should believe your secular state would place so much credence or guilt upon groups according to religious conviction, when religiosity has had nothing to do with the reign of chaos but every thing to do with the blame. Not just birth rates but conversions have transformed Sunni into Shi’ah, especially in those formerly nonaligned parts of the south now controlled by Hezbollah. How could you acquiesce to a group that would drive the frozen bodies of its dead children from village to village for photo ops? That is not western media propaganda, that is fact and those are the deeds of Hezbollah, not KSA. Those persons abducted from Lebanon were taken to Syria with the willing assistance of Hezbollah, not the Saudi Crown Prince. Please, support your position with fact.

May 25, 2009 - 5:46 pm 31. Mad Fiddler:

I apoologize Cadmus for my impertinence. Sometimes I shoot from the hip.

It can be an expensive luxury.

May 25, 2009 - 6:14 pm 32. Marie Claude:

Cadmus, your explanations are clear and helpful

May 25, 2009 - 6:36 pm 33. Wadeusaf:

Cadmus, I am no diplomat.

I have followed much of Lebanon’s story because I believe Lebanon holds a key for the rest of the Arabs to rise to a greater place in civilization than Arabs have been previously allowed themselves. I understand but do not agree with the motives that are assigned to the Saudis, for reasons both rational and I admit slightly hopeful. I would not trust them either, however, as their precarious position within the Kingdom and as cartakers of two of Islam’s holiest shrines means they must continue to balance their actions as Oil Barons against their acts as leaders among the tribes of Arabia and against their acts as keepers of the Mecca and Medina.
Similarly Al Assad inherited a system which requires him to keep his internal tribal rivals at bay while standing aloof from other Arab governments and standing against Israel. Retaining ties with Iran was at one time a choice Syria made after the break with UAR. Syria has been rewarded for those ties over the years with Russian military equipment and Russian technical assistance in many areas of Syrian Ambition. Russia knows well the importance of Lebanon to Syria, as well as all the folks in the Levant and the eastern Mediterranean.
The biggest difference between Russia and the United States lies in consistency. What Lebanon offers is a means for multiple points of view to find common ground by diplomacy without the threat of violence, without the use of force, without the threat of death. That is what I believe Hariri accomplished. It was not perfect but it was a way forward.
What the people who murdered him did was to subvert the will of Lebanon and lessen the image of all things Middle Eastern in the eyes of the world. The same folks who have subverted the will of the majority of Lebanese since the inception of Lebanon. The March 14th movement came close, oh so close to installing that will as supreme. Hezbollah stands in the way of a peaceful Lebanon. There is no other logic that to my mind applies.

I thank you for your insights and I have learned much in our brief discussions.

May 25, 2009 - 9:35 pm 34. Cadmus:

Mad Fiddler:

No Problem. I have that same vice sometimes. That is why I developed the habit of reading over my words twice to guard against that.

Cadmus

May 25, 2009 - 9:55 pm 35. Cadmus:

Wadeusaf:

Expediency sometimes looks clumsy, or results in misunderstanding. I apologize, but it still took several pages to say it briefly.

Let me try again. This will be long, and I hope you have the patience to read it all.

First, I am not “letting” anyone swallow the Lebanon. If it was up to me all these groups would not exist. But, there are way too many horses in this race, and most of them are acting against the interest of Lebanon. Luckily they are not working in unison, so they have not yet devoured the country.

Hizbullah is guilty of everything you mention and more. Yes, they have a massive operation in the tri-state area in South America and it has become a serious source of trouble. I wonder why nothing has been done about that.

However, they are not alone, and not the first to strike against Lebanon.

Lebanon faces multiple threats, and has faced more over the last 35 years. Shiite Fundamentalism, Sunni Fundamentalism, Settling the Palestinian Question at Lebanon’s expense, Communism earlier, Arabism that threatens to dissolve Lebanon’s identity, Israel, etc.

I have learned the hard way the veracity of the saying “never fight on someone else’s terms”. One should always pick the fights he can win, and play for time and gaining advantage when winning a straight out fight is not possible. Suicidal wars are definitely not a good option.

The war started back in the sixties when the PLO began to operate in South Lebanon, striking against Israel and terrorizing the local population into submission.

In 1969, the Arab league voted unanimously to grant the PLO free reign in South Lebanon and threatened war on Lebanon if Lebanon refused. I was too young at the time, but military officers close to me lived the massing of Syrian, Egyptian and Iraqi soldiers on Lebanon’s border with an ultimatum: Let the Palestinians have a “State within a State” or we will take the whole country and give it to them. This has come to be known as the “Cairo Accord”. Saudi Arabia was a major player in this as well.

The plan was clearly a continuation of a 60 year old Sunni drive to eliminate Lebanon. Back in 1919, right after WWI and the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, the Sunnis fought hard to prevent Lebanon from existing. Even though Lebanon was the only autonomous region in the Empire, the Arabs opposed its continued existence, and definitely opposed its current borders. The Shiites, a minority in the Arab world saw a multi-religious Lebanon as a guarantee of their rights against the Sunni Majority.

From that time (Not to go back to the origins of Islam), the Sunnis have fought for Lebanon’s “Arabism”, which is nothing more than a euphemism for Islam. In 1943, after numerous conflicts and convolutions the Lebanese arrived at an agreement whereby the Sunnis would relinquish their quest for Arab unity and the Christians would abandon their reliance on France for cover.

That worked for a while. The next 3 decades were Lebanon’s golden age. But, some in Lebanon and many beyond never accepted that situation. Syria, which until the 70’s was ruled by the Sunni majority never recognized Lebanon and kept looking for ways to end its existence. The Arabs in general refused to accept a country in their midst that was not ruled by Islam. And, of course some of Lebanon’s Moslems did not embrace a secular regime either. All opposed Lebanon’s armistice agreement with Israel.

The Palestinian refugees became the perfect weapon to turn things around. The Saudis and Arabs viewed sending them into Lebanon as a means to change the demographics and establish Moslem dominance. The Syrians saw a means to destabilize Lebanon so they can move in for the kill. All saw Lebanon as the perfect venue to pretend to support the Palestinians without having to pay the price. The Lebanese only would suffer.

Other regional and international factors also converged on this point. The Israelis saw a potential for ridding themselves of the Palestinian problem through what came to be known as the “Alternative State” – giving Lebanon to the Palestinians.

The Soviets who viewed Lebanon as a Western outpost in the Middle East wanted to change that and supported its allies.

Many Western nations looked at all this purely from an economics angle. Beirut was the financial and business center of the region. Western financial analysis from the early 70’s indicated concern that by the end of the century (ten years ago) Beirut may come to control a quarter of the world’s liquidity. If that sounds unreasonable, consider that there are today an estimated $4.8 Trillion Dollars of Arab money invested in the US alone. There is much more in London, Geneva, Paris, Frankfort, Etc..

This money was all going to Beirut and would have been invested to a large extent in the region. Now it is invested in the West, and controlled by the West as leverage against the Arabs.

Thus, the die was cast. Lebanon was to suffer the most ruthless international demolition derby. However, even though there was convergence on starting the war, there was a lot of divergence on how it shall proceed. That is what kept Lebanon alive, along with an extremely tenacious Lebanese mentality of toughing it out. The Christians were offered immediate citizenship in the US and Canada in 1975, if they would leave. There were very few takers.

At that time and for some years the Shiites were not the problem, but rather also victims of all this. South Lebanon which bore the brunt of the conflict with Israel since the mid 60’s is majority Shiite. The Iranian revolution did not come until 1979, and it took a few years for Iran to gain its footing and begin meddling with other countries.

I have detailed the rise of Hizbullah earlier from the PLO training camps through the Sadr movement, his death, the deviation of the movement and then the Hizbullah we know now. It was the wars the Sunnis created and the misery in South Lebanon that created an extremely fertile ground for Hizbullah to grow.

But, Hizbullah did not begin to grow into a major force until after the first Gulf war. It was an unintended, but direct effect of US actions. Containing and sanctioning Iraq freed the Iranians to project their power in the region much more freely. Allowing, and helping Syria to completely take over Lebanon in return for its help in against Iraq, opened the way for Iran to truly start building Hizbullah in Lebanon.

But, that was only under an agreement between Syria, Iran and Saudi Arabia, with US blessing – Taef accord. Lebanon’s parliamentarians, after Syria’s military take over, were summoned by the international community to the city of Taef in Saudi Arabia. There they were given an ultimatum, accept the agreement or loose the country all together. The main architect of the agreement was none other than the late Rafiq Hariri. And, it was finalized in the halls of Washington.

That agreement modified Lebanon’s constitution to proclaim Lebanon an “Arab country”, strip the Christians of most of their political powers, included removing most of the president’s authority. But, the implementation was even worse. The main Christian leaders were killed, exiled or imprisoned.

Washington claimed the agreement was the only way to save Lebanon, and never tired from telling us that all is reversible in due time.

Saudi Arabia, Syria and Iran split the pie. Iran was given a free hand in building Hizbullah and fighting Israel. The Saudis placed Hariri – a Saudi citizen of Lebanese descent – as Prime Minister in full control of the economy and Syria got to play master and share in the loot. And, there has been a lot of it. More than $100 Billion Dollars has been siphoned from Lebanon’s coffers since 1992, resulting in a national debt of $54 Billion in a country of only 4 million people.

The details of the economic suppression of Lebanon are way to long for this post, but even a cursive look shows there was never an intent to allow Lebanon to rebuild and become economically strong.

The Christian’s struggle for survival and fight to regain freedom was ignored by the world. It was a very lonely world indeed. But, finally conditions change with the second gulf war. The US finds itself at odds with Syria, the Saudis are helping Syrian Sunnis to unseat the younger Assad, and the pact in Lebanon comes undone.

All of Syria’s friends contributed to capturing delivering to Syria those who resisted their rule, not only Hizbullah. Some simply killed them, and proudly proclaimed this on TV, like Jumblat.

But, not for long. As soon as the Syrians leave Lebanon and it looks like the Christians are returning to the political scene, Hariri’s son and Hizbullah team up with their allies in an electoral battle in 2005 designed to prevent any Christian political party from gaining a real foot hold. They offered the smaller parties token seats in parliament and directed all their guns at the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), which was born out of the last stand against Syria and grew as an underground anti-Syrian resistance over the years.

The FPM was feared as the largest Christians movement, which had purely nationalistic and secular objectives that had a very strong support among Moslems who oppose fundamentalism – and there are many of those. They succeeded in all but the three districts that had a Christian majority.

The FPM and its allies gain 21 seats in parliament and begin their political battle to regain the rights of the Christians return the balance of power, end corruption and build a modern country. What blasphemy!!!

The whole world, including the Saudis spoke of peaceful dialogue with Hizbullah. They insisted Hizbullah’s arms are an internal issue to be resolved through dialogue.

A government was formed between the Saudi and Iranian friends and gave full cover for Hizbullah’s “resistance” The ministerial statement clearly said “the resistance is free to do what it wishes, when it sees fit to liberate land and prisoners from Israel.” Hizbullah stated publicly that they would kidnap Israeli soldiers to trade for prisoners and no one in the Government objected.

The Saudis pushed the US to ask the Christians to fight Hizbullah. But, the Christians had no weapons, the US was not willing to arm them or support them as they got slaughtered from such a suicidal move.

The plan to settle the Palestinians in Lebanon never died. There is still a lot of talk about it. Even President Bush stated that there is no were for them to go, and they should naturally remain where they are.

Hizbullah was cornered, and looking for a way out. They shifted into the opposition and joined what was purely a Christian opposition. They were willing to make concessions to the Christians that they would never have done otherwise just to come out of isolation. And, they were willing to help resist settling the Palestinians for two reasons. First, the Palestinians are Sunnis and would change the demographics against their interest. Second, they did not want to grant Israel that gift.

Here is where you will probably disagree with me. I am sure you will say that the Christians should have let them drown. Believe me if that was not suicidal, I will.

But, the Christians were also cornered and not in a position to fight. Gaining some political strength from Hizbullah’s concessions and preventing the settlement of the Palestinians was the better alternative. That would at least put them in a stronger position in the future. Kicking Hizbullah in the nuts would have been extremely stupid?

By talking with Hizbullah, they got the Shiites to support a change in the electoral law that allows the Christians to elect their own representatives to parliament. The existing electoral law introduced by Syria and Hariri was designed to prevent the Christian from directly electing their representatives, as the divisions insured most districts had a Moslem majority.

All the talk about Hizbullah winning the elections and taking over is nothing but electioneering propaganda. Hizbullah is fielding fewer candidates that the parliament seats it holds today. Even if it wins all contests it will have fewer seats.

The difference in the next Parliament will be on the Christian side. There will be between 55 and 60 Christian Parliamentarians out of 64 (50% of Parliament) who are truly representative of the Christian people out. That is the result of dialogue.

As I said the majority of Lebanon’s Moslems are not fanatics and do not agree with Hizbullah or Al-Qaida. The best way to strengthen their voice is through dialogue and lack of war.

War only strengthens the radicals. Wars that you cannot win only strengthen your enemy.

Anyone who has any military experience knows that tactical retreats are often the only way to win a fight. It allows you to regroup, build your capabilities and counter attack in a way that you can win. Standing your grounding or charging forward when the odds are clearly against you is lunacy.

I hope the above summary shows that the Saudis are not to be trusted anymore than the Iranians. They started the whole thing and were directly responsible for the suppression of Lebanese Christians. Hizbullah became the beneficiaries of Saudi actions, and may have overshadowed them at some point, but the Saudis are no angle.

I hope this helps.

Cadmus

May 25, 2009 - 9:56 pm 36. Belmont Club » Murder and Hezbollah:

[...] Totten examines the effect of the Spiegel article described in an earlier post, citing communications intercept intelligence linking Hezbollah to the murder of Rafik Hariri.

May 26, 2009 - 4:54 pm 37. Wadeusaf:

As an agreement to promote national reconciliation the Taef accord was the last peacefully negotiated pact among the players in Lebanon. It laid out a strategy for finding a Lebanese consensus. The potential was a nation that was not based on professions of faith and it relied on the tripartite division of power, to move it forward.

As a part of that agreement the disarming of militias was called for as well as the withdraw of Syrian troops to east of the Bekaa Valley. But as it was executed the Syrian troops and agents of Syria stayed long past their welcome. And Hezbollah and the Palestinians declined to disarm. I am not a fan of the disarmament pact, thinking it suicidal and flawed thinking to believe that disarming outside of government buildings or government functions is either legitimate or logical. It makes sense that disarmament was never achieved because anyone who disarmed then dealt from a posture of weakness. It is better to learn fire control, than slavery. But in the aftermath of the civil war and the occupation of Southern Lebanon by the Israeli army, I suppose it made sense.

Still Syria’s refusal to cooperate with the spirit of the accords since 1989, the resort to violent means to shape the leadership and influence the results of government action in Lebanon since 1980 made a sham of the tripartite system and the confessional system before it. Is one cause of the de-legitimization of Hezbollah in western eyes, the larger cause being a sample of their methods of operation in killing US Marines and French troops in 1982.

Hezbollah has consistently proven themselves to be no friends of Lebanese, to have other than Lebanon’s interest at heart. Their support by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard bodes ill for anyone who would seek their assistance or alliance. In my opinion it is a bargain with the devil himself.

May 26, 2009 - 6:48 pm 38. Cadmus:

“Bargain with the Devil himself”!! Perhaps. But, sometimes it is necessary to live to fight another day.

Wadeusaf, I fully agree with your assessments of the Syrian actions in Lebanon. I also agree with you previous post regarding the need for Lebanon to be a meeting ground for the various players in the region and internationally, rather than the battle ground for all, which is what it has been for a long time.

That is what I work for every day. But, that is what is fought against by so many.

The problems facing the Lebanese are much larger than Lebanon. The radicals of this world need conflict to retain their warmongering speeches. And many simply want to send their problems elsewhere so they do not have to face them.

Hizbullah, as you well know has become a much larger organization than South Lebanon. You mentioned South America, but they also have major operations in North America, Europe, Australia and Africa. NO ONE is acting to stop them.

The Saudis and Gulf Arabs, in spite of occasional bluster, have been negotiating with Iran on mutual security issues, summits are held regularly, and trade proceeds apace. They only want to fight Iran in Lebanon with Lebanese blood on both sides.

Upon Syria’s withdrawal in 2005, anyone who refused to talk to Hizbullah, and insisted on its immediate disarmament was accused of being a lunatic by everyone from Washington to Europe to the Arabs. Everyone insisted that dialogue was the only venue. That includes me.

The March 14 group you mention won the elections through an alliance with Hizbullah. The Government they formed included 3 Hizbullah members, and the first international trip by Prime Minister Seniora was to Damascus to pledge his friendship to Syria and talk about “mutual interests”.

Since then, the Sunni fanatics have been pouring into Lebanon, particularly the Palestinian camps. A very large number of those who fought the Lebanese Army in 2007 were Saudi. Those captured were very quickly sent to Saudi Arabia, and no one heard from them again. They did not want to risk the world hearing what they had to say. The Sunnis of Tripoli swear that the weapons came in Saudi trucks marked as humanitarian assistance under the name of Hariri’s Future Movement.

Hariri did not deny it. He stated that it was necessary to counter Shiite weapons.

The second in command of this group had been one of the most vocal supporters of the Seniora Government and was a guest at the Prime Minister’s office several times before the battles with the Army. He too cannot talk anymore. Good ridden.

Thus, instead of helping Lebanon disarm Hizbullah, the Saudis and others were arming Al-Qaida in Lebanon. And, Lebanon was caught between a rock and a hard place.

A head-on confrontation would bring the fundamentalists to the front, who will quickly find common cause in killing Christians. Witness the fate of Iraqi Christians.

Dialogue on the other hand would allow the rational voices to rise, particularly given the lack of will of the international community to do much. Hizbullah has changed its tone, not because its leaders are nice guys, but because the Shiites it claims to represent are as tired of war as anyone else. They are eager for an end to the conflict. Everyone in Lebanon dreams of the return to the Golden Age, when people lived together in peace.

I have no doubt Hizbullah would be looking for a way to retain its role and would welcome any skirmish that would justify its existence. But, should we be the ones offering that gift?

In the mean time, there are gains being made that would allow for more progress in the future.

One cannot build a meeting ground for different people by attacking them. It has to be built through mutual acceptance. Otherwise, they do not meet. They fight, and Lebanese continue to suffer.

Cadmus

May 26, 2009 - 8:13 pm 39. Wadeusaf:

Your’s is a difficult spot. I will look for substance to support your claims about Hariri and the Saudi’s, but I have little hope of uncovering any. I am not convinced that the House of Saud is in complete control of all of its family members, but it does have control of certain equipment. The House of Saud or KSA supplied the Lebanese army with much needed equipment for the struggle in the PLO Camp. Your assertions describe the very definition of treachery. Not unheard of, not without a history of practice.

But folks in that region are adept at such sleight of hand. I will reserve judgment.

May 26, 2009 - 9:04 pm 40. Cadmus:

The Saudis did provide some ammo to the Lebanese Army in the camp war as did other countries in the region, which was requested by the US due to proximity and later replaced by the US.

Incidentally, even the Syrians supplied ammo for the Soviet equipment the Lebanese acquired under Syrian occupation. Go figure!!

But, that was after a shift in policy, instigated by pressure form the US on Saudi Arabia and Hariri to cease financing these guys.

In fact the situation exploded when Fath Al Islam came to one the branches of the Mediterranean Bank – Hariri’s bank – for their monthly checks of $100,000, and were told they will no longer be getting any. They returned with guns and got the money.

It was claimed to be a heist, the police went to pick them up resulting in a fire fight that killed the perpetrators. The police exhibited the checks as proof that these were the guys that robbed the bank. Have you ever heard of bank robbers who ask for checks written their names?

That night others attack and kill 27 soldiers mostly while they slept, declare war on the military and proclaim their aim to create a Sunni Emirate in North Lebanon. The Army acted swiftly to placate any potential for sectarian split in the country, and insure that no one else thinks of doing the same. The Army did not wait for Government orders, the open support of which did not come for two days. They acted on field rules of responding to attacks, but initiated a full scale offensive.

Later that summer, one of Hariri’s closest allied, Walid Eido, was killed in a car bomb as pay back for abandoning Fath Al Islam.

And, later Gen. Hajj, credited with the war’s success was also killed.

Cadmus

May 26, 2009 - 9:56 pm 41. Wadeusaf:

You are too much, Cadmus. You would have me believe that Fath Al Islam had Walid Eido assassinated?

Walid Eido, who was calling on the Lebanese PM and council president to replace the six boycotting Hezbollah cabinet members? The same Walid Eido who called for disarming Hezbollah by force if they would not otherwise? Walid Eido who continued to lobby against Syrian intervention? That Walid Eido was killed for neglecting Al Queda members hiding in the PLO camp.

Now for General Francios Al Hajj, I can understand that you could make that claim. However it is more reasonable to believe the same forces that killed Hariri with a huge car bomb and took out Walid Eido with a car bomb as well as killing other MP’s and folks related to the business of shutting down Hezbollah and ending Syrian influence in Lebanon, nearly all with car bombs, would have used a car bomb to take out General Hajj.

The General was not only responsible for organizing the assault on the PLO Camp, but also setting up a blockade of assistance flowing through Syria to the folks in the camp. General Hajj was in line to lead the fill General Suleman’s spot. I suppose the man who stood the greatest chance of successfully disarming Hezbollah and the man who earned the respect and gratitude of all Lebanese was also their target.

May 26, 2009 - 11:47 pm 42. Wadeusaf:

Hariri required “more than 1000 kilograms of TNT, C4 and hexogen” according to Lebanan now. Packed in a truck with driver.

Walid Eido only “80 Kilograms of explosive” from YA LIBNAN. detonated in an empty car.

General Francois Al Hajj required only “35 Kilograms of explosives packed into an olive green BMW”. according to a 12/12/08 Reuters article. The vehicle was parked in a security zone that houses the presidential palace and was near several embassies in the Baabda district.

It was this last blast that was near to the Russian embassy for which no one has yet claimed responsibility, that I believed was a message to the Russians.

Since president Obama has in effect created a power vacuum, of course Russia is saying they will support any government at all for Lebanon.

Which leads back to the opening comment of this thread. Thanks Batman.

May 27, 2009 - 6:11 am 43. Cadmus:

Car bombs are standard killing means. Every one uses them. No smoking gun there.

Theoretically speaking we can point the finger at a lot of sides that could have killed all these people in Lebanon. Even if you identify the actual people who did it, it may still be someone other than the organization their supposedly belong to. Witness the recent arrests of Israeli agents in Lebanon – I am not accusing them – they include Army and Police officers and high ranking Hizbullah members. Israel has also arrested Officers working for Hizbullah. The same applies to every secret service and organization.

There is also the on and off cooperation between fundamentalists, and even between enemies on some issues of mutual benefit. Anything is possible. But, practically, one must follow the thread of events to identify the most probable, specifically since there are no real investigations in these cases. Only Hariri’s death is investigated, and that is turning into a clown show of ask me.

By the way, the De Spiegel story appeared almost to a T on a web site for the Syrian opposition Sunni movement in December. Now it is in Western media and you hear about it. Hmm!!!

You are right about Eido’s position regarding Hizbullah. He even proclaimed publicly that he is willing to “sell his blood to buy weapons to fight Hizbullah”. Sadly he did. Eido was instrumental in arming Fath Al-Islam until pressure came from Washington to stop. They publicly accused him by name and the Future Movement in general of betraying them. During the camp war, they promised to pay him back, and took credit for his death afterwards. Sure they could have taken credit for other people’s work to look strong. It could also be that Hizbullah killed him on their behalf, or any number of actors seeking to sow dissention and chaos, including the Syrians.

As I have repeatedly said, radicals need conflict to thrive. Hizbullah, while publicly denouncing the Sunni arms, viewed this development as the best justification for its own arms to remain. The Army’s crushing defeat of Fath Al Islam was not a good omen for Hizbullah, which is why at first they opposed an offensive on the camp. They changed their tone only after they witnessed the unanimous public support for the Lebanese Army, and needed to avoid looking like they are against the country. But, I doubt they viewed that event in any better light.

The camp war proved the actual unity of the Lebanese people and their opposition to sectarian conflict. It established the credibility of the Lebanese army, and gave a tremendous boost to morale and the drive to move out of the state of conflict that Hizbullah feeds on.

This came less than a year after the war with Israel, during which the Christians and others took in the mostly Shiite displaced into convents and churches, fed them clothed them and took care of their every need. That too had weakened Hizbullah’s argument as it proved to their own public that the other Lebanese are not the enemy and made it so much harder for them to induce fear.

Hizbullah was in a bad spot, and thus began to make concessions and act like nice guys. It was necessary to retain the respect of the Shiites. But, it was also necessary to undo those events and prevent the potential effect on their own standing.

The same applies to Gen. Hajj. He too was proclaimed a traitor, threatened with death and credit taken for his killing. The same argument applies regarding who actually did it.

Interestingly, some members of March 14 were accusing Gen. Hajj and Gen. Suleiman (current president) of being Hizbullah and Syrian allied in early 2007, and later sent letters to the UN demanding their prosecution for war crimes regarding the camp war. Then, suddenly Hajj becomes their martyr and Hizbullah is accused. I wish I could include these letters here, but what I have is in Arabic.

I tell you, it makes your head spin.

What is important to note is that almost all political assassinations in Lebanon had one thing in common. Almost all, there are exceptions. Those killed were die hard believers in unity and coexistence in Lebanon and were opposed to the mindless sectarian conflict played by external powers. Some were recent converts to the cause and effectively scuttled the plans of their supporters.

A united and peaceful Lebanon will deprive too many powers from a convenient battle ground, where they can fight others, pressure them and present any face they wish at minimal or no cost. It has been a no-no for a long time.

Cadmus

May 27, 2009 - 11:01 am 44. Wadeusaf:

Everyone uses car bombs in Lebanon, really? No they do not, only Hezbollah and Syria have that ignoble distinction. Even Fath al Islam did not use the carbomb other than as a defensive weapon during the assult on the PLO Camp. No one else uses assassination as a means of persuasion or method of debate. While every one else is using a variation of Roberts rules, Hezbollah and Syria are busy killing members of the Lebanese Parliament, Cabinet Members and boycotting sessions where they might have to face the piper for their double dealing and murderous ways.

Suleiman and Hajj was accused of being Hezbollah because they knew that the only way to truly free Lebanon was to hand Hezbollah a decisive military defeat and they knew that the Lebanese army was not up to the task for a variety of reasons, including Iranian support Syrian support and support from Iranian Special Groups commonly know as the Mahdi Army.

From where can the Lebanese Army draw similar support?

Of all the assassinations by car bomb Syria denied responsibility with one exception. The killing of General Hajj.

May 27, 2009 - 4:49 pm 45. Cadmus:

I did not specify car bombs in Lebanon. Thousands of car and truck bombs have exploded all over the world in past 30 years up to and including Oklahoma and the World Trade Center in 1993. Syria and Hizbullah were not responsible for all of them.

I know you know better than that. It is not a defense of anyone, but a car bomb in itself does not implicate anyone either. Anyone can do it.

If you agree that Hajj and Suleiman were allied with Hizbullah and Syria, then why do you believe they killed him? Why did March 14 nominate and vote for Suleiman for president. In fact the Egyptian president was the first to suggest his nomination.

The army has had very little support from anyone. Under Syrian occupation, it was handed antiquated Soviet weapons and received a few second hand US weapons. The latest model tank Lebanon ahs is Vietnam vintage M48, and they have very few of those. The west has been extremely not forthcoming in providing equipment.

But, how does that make any officer a traitor and an agent?

March 14 claimed that Fath Al Islam were Syrian agents, and then they accuse Gen. Hajj who fought them of being a Syrian agent, and then those who killed him are also Syrian agents. Wow! If the Syrians and Hizbullah are so efficient at killing themselves off, why should anyone interfere? Let them at it.

Wadeusaf, you have made some very lucid and intelligent arguments. I know you are smarter than to fall for this type of BS. We both know there are other players on the field.

Cadmus

May 27, 2009 - 6:17 pm 46. Wadeusaf:

I did not specify car bombs in Lebanon…Syria and Hizbullah were not responsible for all of them.
I know you know better than that. It is not a defense of anyone, but a car bomb in itself does not implicate anyone either. Anyone can do it.
In Lebanon a car bomb does exactly implicate Hezbollah and Syria, it does not convict them.

If you agree that Hajj and Suleiman were allied with Hizbullah and Syria, then why do you believe they killed him?

I do not believe they were allied with Hezbollah or Syria, I believe they were realists, knowing what needed to be accomplished and understanding the difference between that and what could be done right away.

But, how does that make any officer a traitor and an agent?
I did not accuse them of being traitors to Lebanon, and most certainly I did not accuse these great men of being Syrian Agents.

Perhaps some of my expressions are for you similar to my reading a translation of your Arab language letters.

The army has had very little support from anyone. Under Syrian occupation, it was handed antiquated Soviet weapons and received a few second hand US weapons. The latest model tank Lebanon ahs is Vietnam vintage M48, and they have very few of those. The west has been extremely not forthcoming in providing equipment.

That is almost exactly my point about the Syrian Army. Except, there has been a great deal of improvement in their capabilities, training and equipment under US and French military assistance. Also it is a fact that the Saudi’s not only helped pay for Ammo “donated” by other countries to Lebanon, but transferred equipment from their inventory directly to the Lebanese armed forces for use in the battle in the PLO Camp.

March 14 claimed that Fath Al Islam were Syrian agents, and then they accuse Gen. Hajj who fought them of being a Syrian agent, and then those who killed him are also Syrian agents. Wow! If the Syrians and Hizbullah are so efficient at killing themselves off, why should anyone interfere? Let them at it.

If only it were that easy, eh? Our heads would stop spinning so much.

Wadeusaf, you have made some very lucid and intelligent arguments. I know you are smarter than to fall for this type of BS. We both know there are other players on the field.

I have been asking for some solid indication of just that Cadmus. I am asking for a link to those other players. What I have is weak and frankly while some of your arguments are intriguing, I find that so far, they do not hold up well in making those connections to players other than Iran, Syria and Hezbollah.

May 27, 2009 - 7:26 pm 47. Wadeusaf:

In the post above, my point was made about the Lebanese Army, not the Syrian army.
It should read

That is almost exactly my point about the Lebanese Army. Except, there has been a great deal of improvement in their capabilities, training and equipment under US and French military assistance.

Even with editing I did not see the mistake.

May 27, 2009 - 7:50 pm 48. Cadmus:

Proof of others in the field in Lebanon!

First, as a reminder, I have opposed Hizbullah and its wars in Lebanon. I just do not believe all who claim to oppose them are good guys, or have Lebanon’s interest at heart.

Second, I have been around long enough to know that spies and operatives exist everywhere. I am not so naïve to believe that will ever end. But, I also do not accept anyone using Lebanon to settle their scores and turning Lebanon into a battle field, be they Iranian, Syrian, Israeli, Saudi or otherwise.

Third, the misunderstanding was not linguistic. I am a Lebanese-American born and raised. There is nothing wrong with my English. Read your post again, you had vindicated their accusation of Hajj and Suleiman.

Now consider the following.

Let us start with the more than 20 Israeli agents arrested in the last few weeks in Lebanon. Many others have fled before being captured. And, there have been many others and still are. The Israelis have publicly and proudly spoken of their espionage work in Lebanon, including assassinations. They may have killed bad guys, but they were and still are in the field.

Palestinians, who fought savage battles against the Lebanese, remain armed to the teeth The Lebanese – all of them – agree that Palestinian arms should be controlled and removed. The Arabs have advised “restraint”. The Government dominated by Hariri has refused to act even against Palestinian weapons outside the camps. Interesting!!

The UN, in its semi-annual reports from South Lebanon, continues to warn about the growing danger of Al-Qaida in the area. Al-Qaida also boasts of its intentions in Lebanon. Many have been arrested while setting up cells and planning security incidents. They mostly hide in the Palestinian Camps / Fortresses.

The Camp war in 2007 resulted in over 100 Saudi fighters killed and dozens arrested. Those were quickly sent to Saudi Arabia and never heard from again. Why were these not tried in Lebanon and their connections exposed? There were an equal amount of other Arab nationals.

These people were in possession of the most sophisticated weaponry, including American made remote controlled high powered sniper guns. The rooftop guns where controlled by computer from below ground, and had an effective range of almost 2 miles. Where did these come from?

If even one Iranian was found among Hizbullah’s fighters, a Chinese gun or a Russian bullet, it would have been considered the ultimate smoking gun. Yet hundreds of Saudis and sophisticated guns are dismissed as inconclusive. Interesting!!

Hariri himself admitted publicly that he had financed Fath Al Islam to “keep it under control”. He also stated that when they began to become a problem for Saida in the south, he paid them to move to the Northern camp.

Now, if a national leader, as Hariri claims he is, feels that a group of fanatics are becoming a problem, he should neutralize them, not send them to another part of the country so they can wreak havoc on people there. 170 soldiers lost their lives and hundreds were left permanently disabled from this move, not to mention the extensive material damage. Where is the accountability?

It is a long standing policy of Saudi Arabia to pay fundamentalists to fight somewhere else to avoid having to deal with them internally and still look like there are supporting Islam. Lebanon has been one of the primary beneficiaries of this largess.

The Saudis, in a an interview with the New York times two weeks ago, stated that they are pouring hundreds of millions of dollars into the Lebanese elections to “make Iran feel the pressure”, etc. You will find it very insightful. http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/23/world/middleeast/23lebanon.html?pagewanted=all

The Saudi ambassador personally attends March 14 meetings and states what Saudi Arabia wants. This is documented in dozens of articles on dozens of occasions. He is not shy about it any more than proudly proclaiming efforts to buy votes.

And, we all know there are hundreds of US, Russian, French, and other international operatives all over Lebanon, as in any other country. These have the ability and have acted in the past.

No one else on the field!!!

Oh. And, car bombs are mobsters’ favorite weapon also.

Cadmus.

May 27, 2009 - 8:54 pm 49. Wadeusaf:

Cadmus,

First, I reread my post about Hajj and Suleiman. I did not vindicate the accusation, I explained the position of the Generals as I understood it to be. That shows the accusation to be no more than feeble grasping nonsense.

Second From Mideast Monitor a well researched and well supported by documentation…
”In February 2007, investigative journalist Seymour Hersh published a report claiming that the ruling coalition has funded Fatah al-Islam and other armed Islamist groups as a counterweight to Hezbollah.[19] Although March 14 leaders vehemently denied this claim, Siniora’s office raised suspicions by acknowledging “some organizations in the North and South have received aid from parties which have identified themselves as representatives of the Lebanese government or the Internal Security Forces.” Apart from the Hariri family’s payoffs to Jund al-Sham, a ransom to free kids held hostages in a preschool, there is little direct evidence of explicit funding of armed Sunni Islamist groups (which appear to receive most of their funding from wealthy donors in Saudi Arabia and other Arab Gulf States).”

There were a series of “news reports” about wealthy donors supporting the Sunni groups in Lebanon before the battle of the refugee camp, but most have been discredited based on a lack of documentation and credible sources.

This would not be the first time Mr. Hersh got it flat wrong, it was not the last. Jund al-Sham is a group set up by Palestinians and Syrians in Afghanistan initially with linkes to and perhaps led by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. So saying it is Syrian is not the same as saying the Government of Syria backed it.

Third, Of 20 Fatah al-Islam members who appeared before a military court on May 30, 19 were Lebanese. National News Agency, 30 May 2007.
Of 25 militants whose bodies had been recovered by the Lebanese authorities as of May 26, four were identified as Saudis, according to the Saudi ambassador in Lebanon. Al-Hayat (London), 27 May 2007.

Fourth: Defense Minister Elias Murr put the speculation to rest: “Does the government so far have an official confession about the links of these [Fatah al-Islam militants] or some of them to Syria? So far, there is no answer.”quoted in “Lebanon: Fatah al-Islam defeated, military operation is over,” The Associated Press, 21 June 2007.

Unfortunately the Saudi’s do feel the need to counter the extreme militancy of the Iran backed and Syrian supported Hezbollah. UNIFIL was supposed to give the Lebanese army the opportunity to grow strong enough to be able to do away with the need for militant groups no matter what sect, in Lebanon. Meanwhile the Internal Security Forces is widely seen as a counter to Hezbollah and Shi’ah extremists and fundamentalist groups.

Cadmus, I am not naive, I know the groups have to get funding from somewhere, and I know guns are not cheep. But I still do not know who was funding those groups, or who was spreading the false reports like the ones about weapons and people detained at the Syrian border or other such nonsense that makes it into the news.

I also know that no one in such an environment is perfect.

May 28, 2009 - 12:26 am 50. Wadeusaf:

No one else on the field!!!

In my defense, I find I overlook the PLO and their supporters because other the camp rebellion they tend to be inept. I tend to discount the Israeli’s and their “operatives” because they are not inept and are therefor less likely to be seen by a journalist.

But you are right about them playing a big role in Lebanese Politics.

May 28, 2009 - 12:36 am

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