It is widely assumed that the Iranians are simply seeking nukes so they can come out and destroy everyone. I am not sure were the notion that nuclear holocaust was a necessary prelude for Al-Mahdi. As the Shiites explain it, they await him in a similar fashion to our awaiting the Messiah. No collective destruction is necessary.

The Iranians know that an attack would be the end of them. No matter how much damage they do, they will still be wiped off the face of the earth. Even if you believe the Al-Mahdi story, it will not help them. They will not be there to see him.

What the Iranian government aims for two things.

First, the Iranian Government needs foreign adversity, including the threats of nuclear attacks by Israel to remain in power. Like all radicals and fanatics, they can only survive through conflict. But, only low intensity conflict that does not kill them. The constant threat and resultant fear they can feed into their people allow them to retain their grip on power.

It is very hard to rally people into frenzy when they are living comfortably and safely.

This explains why Ahmadinijad has responded as he did. Antagonism of the West and Israel’s threats are desperately needed for him to keep the moderate voices in check. The radicals may still control Government, but have long lost the hearts and minds of the people. The opposition has been growing below the radar, but the Mullahs know it.

Second, they want to be among the big boys. They want the world to consider them important and not just a third rate country. They want to placate the opposition voices by looking like they brought Iran into the forefront of the world scene through all this technological development. Suicidal attacks do not achieve that.

No amount of talk will stop them from developing missile or nuclear technology. It has not stopped others and the nuclear club has been growing rapidly.

The comparisons to 9/11, misses the actual intent of 9/11. Bin Laden was not trying to destroy the US with his attack, as anyone knows that it would take much more to do this. Bin Laden was instigating our counterattack into the region. He wanted us to go their and fight on his turf. He hoped that a war in Moslem country will allow him to radicalize more people. He hoped he could get people to turn on any Government that worked with us, and pave the way for his take over.

Bin Laden managed to radicalize some on account of the war, but most people as in any other place would rather not die mindlessly. Even if they have differences with their Governments or the war they do not go blow themselves up. This is particularly true in rich oil producing countries were people are enjoying the good life.

Ahmadinejad has so far managed to incur our ire and threats with ease. Why would he risk large scale war? He can continue to tick us off through minor incidents here and there and continue to build his arsenal.

His support for Hizbullah in Lebanon alone is enough to keep all this coming. And, only the Lebanese suffer, while marches on.

In the mean time he is negotiating hard with the Arabs across the pond for mutual security agreements, etc. designed to remove western militaries from the Gulf. All the threats of war are making his job much easier, as the people in the region are all in the kill zone, and would rather not be nuked.

The most dangerous thing we can do is underestimate our adversaries.

The Iranians are playing a very shrewd Chess game.

Unfortunately, we have yet to find a match for them on this side. Obama is not it.

Cadmus

You know what is perverse about this situation. Every day that passes will be taken as proof of the wisdom of the elites.

Until disaster strikes and the utter foolishness will be evident. To those who survive.

Another perversity. The US now has more to fear from it’s friends than it’s enemies. North Korea is a failed state. Iran is dangerous, but watched very closely. But what about those threatened by these developments? The ones that have counted on the protection of the US? What deals will they make? What forces of madness will the danger arouse within their midst? If a nuclear Iran is frightening, what about a nuclear Saudi Arabia, or Egypt, or Jordan? Or Japan, South Korea, Taiwan? Or Singapore. Or Thailand. Turkey.

If I’m seeing these things, others are also. Isn’t right now the only opportunity to neutralize potentially dangerous neighbors before they are nuclear? Wouldn’t it be foolish for say China to wait for it’s small neighbors to go nuclear in response to North Korea rather than annex them now to remove the potential threat? Same with the middle east.

Oh, I forgot. They will receive the full condemnation of the international community.

Derek

Almost certainly Plutonium. I spoke to someone a few weeks ago who is familiar with our “negotiation” paper trail with N. Korea, and how we let them keep their Plutonium stockpile when they “promised” to “stop” their bomb program.