Michael Totten describes Iran as a great nation trapped in the straitjacket of tyranny. He quotes Robert Kaplan who says, “of all the shatter zones in the greater Middle East, the Iranian core is unique: The instability Iran will cause will not come from its implosion, but from a strong, internally coherent Iranian nation that explodes outward from a natural geographic platform to shatter the region around it.” A big part of the problem in predicting the long term outcome of the drama in Iran — and a major reason why analysts could not anticipate it — arises from the interplay between a genuinely dynamic society and the political factions within it. This is not just a struggle “among great men”, which was probably what the analysts were watching. In this case, it is truer than usual to say that the “will of the people” will play a big part in how this ends in Iran.
The Wall Street Journal steps through the conventional scenarios that analysts have divided their crystal ball into. The scenarios are basically permutations of simple outcomes, a shotgun forecast covering all bases. They are:
* People power prevails.
* Mr. Ahmadinejad survives, by taking a moderate position.
* The forces of repression win within Iran, causing a backlash from the rest of the world.
* The protests are simply crushed by Ali Khamenei; repression intensifies.
* Ahmadinejad wins a recount or runoff, victorious but drastically weakened.
* Mousavi somehow prevails, and rules with an unknown agenda and in a standoff with the rest of the Iranian elite.
But one thing the WSJ is in no doubt about is that events in Iran caught most the administration flat-footed. They are still struggling to understand what is going on. It writes, “what’s striking in talking with American officials about such scenarios is how little they know about what is happening within Iran’s regime as the internal struggle plays out — and, hence, how hard it is to prepare for the ultimate outcome. Things almost never go according to plan in U.S.-Iranian relations anyway. Now, it’s hard to even have a plan.”
My guess is that even in Iran nobody really knows. The reason why information is so scarce in revolutionary situations is that politicians, like physicists observing a quantum phenomenon, are discovering the true value of an event for the first time. People are making their minds up about questions that have never been posed before. There was no way to estimate it hitherto because it never came up till now. About all that one can reasonably conjecture about the next few weeks is that Iran has broken symmetry, a term which means that it has fallen out of its old state and is tumbling into some other state, without any reasonable prospect of returning to the status quo ante. Think of it like a Mexican jumping bean hopping around the top of a sombrero. It will hop around the crown for a while. But then one day it will break symmetry and fall into the brim and bounce around the new state, but it will never regain the crown. The past is over.
The necessary implication is that Barack Obama’s engagement plan with Iran is probably dead. This does not mean that some kind of diplomatic initiative should not be made. Indeed, the US will be forced to engage Iran very soon in a way that is as yet unclear, but that engagement will almost certainly take a form that will be significantly different from the plans now laid. It will be a case of ‘back to the drawing board’. I think the best approach is to very broadly encourage things to settle in a way in general conformity with the long-term interests of the Iranian people. For although the US cannot directly affect events in Iran, it can warp the space — at least the conceptual space — around it, and hope that the landslide, after it has tumbled downhill as far as it it will go, will come to rest in a stable and benign way.
This is especially true because other regional powers will see the current Iranian situation as an opportunity for mischief, rather than as an opportunity to see the emergence of a legitimate Iranian regime. To see this, imagine how Hezbollah and Syria must feel right now, trembling at the thought the very ground may shifted from under their feet, feeling the penetrating gazes of those who only yesterday feared them, as only those who have lived as bullies can feel. Certainly al-Qaeda and Sunni extremist elements will not wish the Iranians well. From these considerations alone the US may find it in its interests, not only to put its ear to the ground, but also to cast a wary eye around at the jackals who are always drawn to the sound of death struggles.
Michael Totten observes that a truly democratic Iran would be a great power. In its own way a free Iran would destabilize the region — and probably make a nonsense of the current Obama engagement plan. Totten writes, “a democratic Iranian government would almost certainly cease and desist its toxic support for terrorist organizations and fascist political movements abroad, but it also wouldn’t likely give up its power to shape the Middle East. Powerful countries with quasi-imperial ambitions do not transform themselves into Belgium without something catastrophic happening first.” Should people power prevail in Iran, history in the region won’t stop, but it may be several shades lighter than otherwise.
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60 Comments
1. Doug:Rachel Maddow Show Just the Beginning in Iran
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I don’t know what usually goes on on the Maddow Show, but I’m certainly surprised to see her approvingly link Ledeen and Roger Simon!
Video there that I have yet to watch.
—
Now comes something even more informative from the same show last nite!
A must read.
Rachel Maddow interviews Reza Aslan.
—
Joining us now is Reza Aslan. He’s a senior fellow at the Orfalea Center on Global and International Studies at the University of California, Santa Barbara. He’s also author of a new book, “How to Win a Cosmic War:
God, Globalization, and the End of the War on Terror.”
—
ASLAN: Well, just the very fact that the meeting is being convened is significant. The Assembly of Experts, as you said, gets to decide who the next supreme leader will be, and they also get to decide whether the current supreme leader is still qualified for his position. The head of the Assembly of Experts, of course, is Ayatollah Rafsanjani.
Now, Rafsanjani is probably the second most powerful man in Iran after the supreme leader. He’s certainly the richest man in Iran. He was also Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s main opponent four years ago. And Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, this year, really went after Rafsanjani hard, accused him of corruption, of graft. And Rafsanjani and Ahmadinejad really went at it in a very public way that you don’t normally see in Iran.
And once the elections were called for Ahmadinejad, Rafsanjani has been working behind the scenes to try to get those elections annulled. And this goes back to an earlier point that you made, is that this isn’t about, you know, the mullahs versus the people, or even, you know, the clerical regime versus the reformers. This is something that goes to the very heart of the legitimacy of the Islamic republic. It’s the government, itself, that’s beginning to crack apart.
Jun 19, 2009 - 4:29 am 2. blogstrop:I’m surprised and pleased that the Iranians have shaken the tree of the regime. From here any path leads to change of some sort. It might be gradual, or it might be a precipitation of the frustration at ground level plus that in the higher strata. The cracks are appearing. It’s amazing that the supreme leader can ask that protesters act in a “legal way” after such a farcical election and such brutal executions in Iran since the 1979 revolution, plus very dodgy (and probably illegal) interference in other states’ affairs over many years.
Jun 19, 2009 - 4:51 am 3. Mark:WSJ writes: “What’s striking in talking with American officials about such scenarios is how little they know about what is happening within Iran’s regime as the internal struggle plays out — and, hence, how hard it is to prepare for the ultimate outcome. Things almost never go according to plan in U.S.-Iranian relations anyway. Now, it’s hard to even have a plan.”
American intelligence workers remind me of the Barbie doll who used to say “Math is hard!” but might now say, “Intelligence work is hard!” What buffoonery. And we actually pay them.
What can go wrong probably will go wrong in Iran. Ethnic minorities are probably going to see openings, as will the Marxists. The script isn’t too difficult to sketch out.
At this point, the best thing that ever happened to Iraq is that GWB took out Saddam, who otherwise at this point would be waiting for an opportunity to occupy some oil fields, or kill a million people trying.
Sistani may provide some thread of continuity for Iranians who may need to preserve some shreds of their Islamic Republic theocratic identity. Sistani has been the salvation of Iraq, and maybe he has a key role to play in Iran. I guess that topic is too close to saying ‘maybe Bush was right’ for MSNBC to inquire into the topic.
A common denominator of events thus far seems to be that almost everyone in the Middle East wants to see Hezbollah blown away. Hooray!
Jon Voight says of Obama that he’s a good actor. That’s about right. The President is trying to stay calm and pretend that his next Olympian pronouncement will contain the magic words that finally and magisterially salvage his ridiculous Iran policy.
Maybe he has wanted the US to look bad and fail not because he hates the US but because the narcissist needs scripts that include conflict and distress in order to personally resolve them. Or maybe he really just hates the US and harbors, as many have suspected, some atavistic attachment to authoritarian Islam.
Jun 19, 2009 - 4:53 am 4. hdgreene:Wouldn’t it be ironic if the election were actually honest, as some “knowledgeable” folks have argued. It would explain why the regime seemed so flat footed in its follow through after such a brazen act of theft. They seemed to be acting on the fly since day one.
Of course one should not subscribe “a lack of conspiracy” to events which a conspiracy, plus stupidity and incompetence, will explain.
Did not Ahmadinejad widen the main street of Tehran so the Mahdi could have a better parade? Maybe he is now throwing rocks down the well, the one they through messages down, trying to wake him up. Hey, we can all uses a savior now and then.
Jun 19, 2009 - 5:23 am 5. James:Hi Richard,
Great discussion forum as usual.
Our elites certainly suffer from a failure of imagination. But its not a failure to imagine the future. They can imagine all 500 scenarios at once, that’s how they got their jobs.
What they can’t seem to grasp is what its like to live under a tyrannical regime, or what might animate people who do. They also can’t imagine the economic destruction and poverty that flows from tyranny.
Conservatives certainly wouldn’t have a ‘plan’ either, but they wouldn’t be especially surprised.
Add together:
1) Falling oil prices causing lack of imports of foreign made goods.
2) Lack of internal productivity caused by tyranny.
3) Foreign armies in Lebanon and Gaza that require pay and weaponry.
4) Client states – Syria – that also live on largesse from Iran.
5) An Iraqi culture and economy which is booming and provides an up-close example of a better world. A country where Iranians travel often for religious pilgrimage.
6) A once proud Iranian culture told to get used to African levels of poverty in order to please god.
Liberals look at all that, and think that government power is so great, it can keep things stable forever. Just reason with that great power a little, and everyone will be happy.
Some ideas are so ridiculous, only an intellectual could believe them.
James
Jun 19, 2009 - 5:29 am 6. wretchard:One of the interesting subplots here is who gets control over the various Frankenstein monsters the Islamic Republic has created over the years. Its nuclear program and its links with North Korea and Syria come to mind, as do the army of terror it has abroad — as far afield as South America. Imagine if those forces go Lost Command on Teheran. Well, they still may.
The other interesting thing is that so far, there hasn’t been a public peep out of Southern Iraq. Nothing from the clerics in Karbalah, which has become a kind of memetic crossing space into Iran. That silence tells me that the wheel’s still in spin. People are waiting to see who — or what — comes out on top.
Clearly the events of the last two weeks have hit the Administration by surprise. If they had known this would happen, would the President have given his New Year’s guarantee to the regime? A regime that may not live out the month? If he had known things would become unstable, could he have gone forward with his Middle East peace plan? Recall that Netanyahu, during his visit to Washington was pressing BHO for a timetable on deciding whether engagement with Iran was working, before agreeing to concessions which would put Israel in a physically insecure position. At the time BHO seemed confident he could swing it. What was the basis of his confidence? And that was only very recently. In retrospect it is evident they were flying blind, running pell mell down a stairway whose steps have now vanished — at least momentarily — from under their feet.
In a way Obama has been lucky. It could have been worse. He could have already made a deal with Ahmadinejad only to see it fall to pieces before the ink on the paper was dry. Better that it happened now than that.
Jun 19, 2009 - 5:33 am 7. feeblemind:Isn’t it possible that the demonstrations could just peter out? At some point, don’t the demonstrators have to go back to earning eating money? One would think time is on the side of the mullahs. If they can just keep the crowds controlled for a few more days. Finally, the tone in the blogosphere suggests that if the Iranian people win, we will get a benign pro-American Iran. I am not at all sure that would be the outcome.
Jun 19, 2009 - 5:37 am 8. 907ie:What about the “letter”?
From Robert Fisk, The Independent.
“Headed “For the Attention of the Supreme Leader” it notes “your concerns for the 10th presidential elections” and “and your orders for Mr Ahmadinejad to be elected president”, and continues “for your information only, I am telling you the actual results”. Mr Mousavi has 19,075,623, Mr Karroubi 13,387,104, and Mr Ahmadinejad a mere 5,698,417.”
“They were handing out the photocopies by the thousand under the plane trees in the centre of the boulevard, single sheets of paper grabbed by the opposition supporters who are now wearing black for the 15 Iranians who have been killed in Tehran – who knows how many more in the rest of the country? – since the election results gave Mahmoud Ahmadinejad more than 24 million votes and a return to the presidency. But for the tens of thousands marking their fifth day of protests yesterday – and for their election campaign hero, Mirhossein Mousavi, who officially picked up just 13 million votes – those photocopies were irradiated.”
“For the photocopy appeared to be a genuine but confidential letter from the Iranian minister of interior, Sadeq Mahsuli, to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, written on Saturday 13 June, the day after the elections, and giving both Mr Mousavi and his ally, Mehdi Karroubi, big majorities in the final results. In a highly sophisticated society like Iran, forgery is as efficient as anywhere in the West and there are reasons for both distrusting and believing this document. But it divides the final vote between Mr Mousavi and Mr Karroubi in such a way that it would have forced a second run-off vote – scarcely something Mousavi’s camp would have wanted.”
Jun 19, 2009 - 5:46 am 9. Doug:So NOW What’s Going on in Iran?
But no doubt the Iranians have been talking to the Russians and the Chinese about, uh, “crowd control.” I don’t think either will have particularly useful ideas for the Iranian revolutionary movement, frankly. Sending in the tanks might appeal to Khamenei et. al., but there seems to be considerable evidence that the armed forces, even the Revolutionary Guards, are unreliable. Twitter messages abound in little scenes of friendly exchanges between police and dissidents. There are even stories of police arresting Basij thugs. And I haven’t seen a single account of Army repression. Quite the contrary; the Army seems to be trying to protect the dissidents by separating their would-be attackers from the demonstrators.
It seems that tomorrow, Thursday, will be the first big showdown. The regime is massing two Revolutionary Guards divisions for an assault on the dissidents–something like twenty thousand soldiers from outside Tehran–and the Mousavi people don’t want to give them time to organize and prepare their attacks. No doubt there are all kinds of secret meetings going on, as the various military, militia, religious and political leaders try to read the chicken entrails and guess their destiny. I don’t envy them the very brutal choice they now face, for despite some embarrassingly silly opeds in places like the NY Times:
“JUST after Iran’s rigged elections last week, with hundreds of thousands of protesters taking to the streets, it looked as if a new revolution was in the offing. Five days later, the uprising is little more than a symbolic protest, crushed by the elite Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps.”
the most powerful leaders in Iran are facing a life or death showdown. Both Khamenei and Mousavi–the two opposed icons of the moment, at least–know that they will either win or die. After nightfall, millions of revolutionaries chant from their rooftops “Allah is Great” and they are chants of defiance hurled at the Islamic Republic. I cannot imagine a soft landing.
Meanwhile, the regime is rounding up political leaders and killing dissidents. More than two score former VIPs of the regime are now in jail, according to the data given Khamenei, which lists the surprisingly low number of 36 dead over the past four and a half days. Given their paranoia of young people, and especially educated youth, it is no surprise that university campuses have been invaded, and anyone who looks like a “student” is attacked. This heart-rending letter has been circulating most of the day online (I posted it on The Corner):
I am a medical student. There was chaos last night at the trauma section in one of our main hospitals. Although by decree, all riot-related injuries were supposed to be sent to military hospitals, all other hospitals were filled to the rim. Last night, nine people died at our hospital and another 28 had gunshot wounds…
Jun 19, 2009 - 6:06 am 10. wretchard:The “letter”, whether genuine or false, is a two-edged sword. On the one hand, it can be a clever attempt to pit Mousavi against Karroubi. But if so, it may be too clever by a half. By averring that the election was rigged to start with, it does something subtly catastrophic. It forces politicians to adopt winner-take-all positions. It raises the stakes too high for people to simply back down. The worst thing the regime could have done is force political forces to the point of no return. As long as there was a way back you could pretend a consensus existed. Now there will have to be winners and losers.
Jun 19, 2009 - 6:07 am 11. aaron:“who gets control over the various Frankenstein monsters the Islamic Republic has created over the years”
no doubt. the nukes are just the tip o’ the iceberg, and in my opinion the least of our worries. their “other” arsenals are what really make me uncomfortable. hopefully those don’t get loose when power changes hands.
i’d be stoked to see Hamas and Hez to twist in the wind with no funding/patronage, but they may also absorb some elements of the IRG when they scatter. Some of these folks could also “transfer technology” in order to buy their way to security outside Iran.
there may be some proliferation of the things polite people don’t talk about.
Jun 19, 2009 - 6:09 am 12. Doug:That’s just not an option this time because this isn’t-as you said, it’s not about college students. We’ve got-you know, this is a movement that is essentially cutting across all the traditional borders and the traditional divisions in Iran.
You have some of the most important and influential people within the Iranian establishment, not just Rafsanjani but the former president, Mohammad Khatami. The Grand Ayatollah Ali Montazeri is one person that you mentioned, but also, the Grand Ayatollah Sanei who’s issued a fatwa calling election fraud a mortal sin.
And these are people whose religious credentials go way beyond the supreme leader’s religious credentials. They are not exactly equals by any means. Montazeri and Sanei, they’re grand ayatollahs; they are way above Ayatollah Khamenei, the current supreme leader.
MADDOW: Reza, we are in day five of following this. And in terms of what to expect next and to watch for next, we are expecting another major demonstration tomorrow. It’s not just a demonstration but it’s a planned day of mourning for those who have been killed in the protests thus far.
What should we watch for tomorrow? And how important, do you think, tomorrow is going to be?
ASLAN: What’s really fascinating about what’s happening right now, in 2009, is that it looks a lot like what was happening in 1979. And there’s a very simple reason for that. The same people are in charge. I mean, Mousavi, Rafsanjani, Khatami, Mehdi Karoubi, the other reformist candidates — these were all the original revolutionaries who brought down the shah to begin with. So, they know how to do this right.
And so, what you’re going to see tomorrow is something that was pulled exactly out of the playbook of 1979, which is that you have these massive mourning rallies where you mourn the deaths of those who were martyred in the cause of freedom. And these things tend to get a little out of control. They often result in even more violence by the security forces and even more deaths-which then requires another mourning rally which is even larger, which then requires more violence from the government-and this just becomes an ongoing snowball that can’t be stopped. That’s how the shah was removed from power was these mourning ceremonies.
And so, Mousavi, very smartly, calling for an official, not a rally, but an official day of mourning tomorrow. I think we’re going to see crowds that we haven’t even begun to see yet, and then follow that, on Friday, which is sort of the Muslim Sabbath, the day of prayer, which is traditionally a day of gathering anyway, this is just beginning, Rachel. This is just the beginning.
Jun 19, 2009 - 6:13 am 13. RWE:Now, I don’t know much more about the situation than I read in the October 1965 edition of Action Comics, but it seems that now would be the time to set events in motion.
Have the Kurds in the north press for incorporation with their brothers in Iraq and the Shia in the south press for alliance with their friends in Iraq, taking the Iranian oilfields with them, by the way.
Then a few dozen IED’s tracable to the Quods go off in spots where senior members of the regime are driving by.
Next, whoops, the first Iranian nuke apparently goes off prematurely in an embarassing place.
But no … we are trying to figure out where we put the olive branches.
Jun 19, 2009 - 6:29 am 14. bob:Did not Ahmadinejad widen the main street of Tehran so the Mahdi could have a better parade?–
-/
You’re serious, he actually did that?
In Paris they widened the streets to better control the folk.
Well, maybe he had both thoughts in mind.
What a bizarre situation. I’m old fashioned. I can understand peasants burning down a castle, but this…..is beyond me.
By the way, I know where the Madhi is going to reappear. It’s at Mel’s Hole, outside of Ellenburg, Washington.
The Madhi had the good sense to get out of the mideast, and he ain’t coming back, not there.
Jun 19, 2009 - 6:35 am 15. dan:A few observations. I think observers must accept the notion that Ahmadinejad did actually win, and win by a significant margin. Moreover, from some of the statements coming out of the pro-Moussavi crowds it does seem that they are perfectly aware that he is no Jimmy Carter. If the protests are limited to “where’s my vote?” and the mullahs can keep the crowd focused on the legitimacy of the election rather than the legitimacy of the state – under these basic conditions it strikes me that this still may have been false demonstration of the inherent liberality and “good”ness of the Iranian people for the purpose of forestalling direct attack or further isolation.
Instead, such a demonstration will enable those foreign governments who favor rapprochement to point to these “liberal, modern” crowds as evidence that attack or sanction would counterproductively harm the lovely people or turn them against the Outside. As someone commented above, the Guardian Council and those running all aspects of government are the original Revolution: they know how to do this, they know how to deal with the aftermath, the clean-up, closure. Unless the crowds turn violent and overwhelm or induce defection from the security services and military, and unless the crowds can *replace* the regime, it strikes me that this entire episode may stil represent a strategic deception.
It is true though that even if the regime successfully defends itself, the people have tasted their power. I wonder whether the Council & Co. are clever and subtle and patient enough to evolve a new form of the Revolution that will both enable it to pursue its Greater Iran policy and to accomodate and control the new spirit that seems to have awakened among especially the younger generation. It must be remembered that even if the Council & Co. did not expect the size and coherence of the popular reaction, they surely expected Some reaction – they are after all at least as well-informed about the attitudes of “their” people as are Michael Ledeen and Michael Rubin. Why, for example, was Moussavi’s wife allowed to so extravagantly flaunt the usual etiquette? And it is interesting that Ahmadinejad went to Russia – SCO meeting or no SCO meeting – while this is all going down.
Jun 19, 2009 - 6:40 am 16. The Wobbly Guy:How the Iran situation differs from Myanmar and Tiananmen, and I think this is a critical, critical factor, is that the opposition this time has a figurehead (Mousavi) to rally around, and this figurehead was once part of the establishment, and hence possesses the… hmmm… assets required to pull it off.
There was no establishment figurehead in China for Tiananmen. Ditto for Myanmar (Suu Kyi doesn’t count).
This alone gives me some degree of hope that the people will prevail in Iran. C’mon!
Jun 19, 2009 - 6:43 am 17. Barry 0351:I believe this will end in brutal repression and shuffing out of all but the Iranian party line. The Iranian’s have no hope without aid from outside.
Jun 19, 2009 - 6:49 am 18. Mongoose:The whole lot of the Democrats are narcissistic ignoramuses. Iran, as is the rest of creation, is just a prop to as they act out their hideous illusions.
They do not know anything about Iran because they cannot know anything about anything but their self delusions.
And I disagree with he notion that conservatives would be caught flat-footed.
GWB, famously, knew just what Iran waa about. That is why they are in the Axis if Eviel and that is why the broader ME was part of his cogitations in the IRaq theater of the WOT.
And between the Norks and the Iranians, he is being proved right every day.
Dan: I do not see how your assertion about the election results logically follow. Seems a mere assertion to me.
Jun 19, 2009 - 6:51 am 19. bob:I agree with Mongoose. The Madhi was the only sane one. He got the hell out of there.
Jun 19, 2009 - 6:57 am 20. Insufficiently Sensitive:the opposition this time has a figurehead (Mousavi) to rally around, and this figurehead was once part of the establishment, and hence possesses the… hmmm… assets required to pull it off.
The difference from 1979 is that the Ayatollah Khomenei had been sitting in Paris for years by then, pulling strings and communicating and sending endless sermons on tape into Iran, and had an organization in formation to grab control after Jimmy Carter so graciously allowed the Shah to be pried loose.
We don’t know if Mousavi is as well prepared and organized, although he has been on the ground all along.
Jun 19, 2009 - 7:22 am 21. dan:Mongoose – right, well it seems to me that although it appears such throngs challenge the legitimacy of the Revolutionary structure, the throngs favor Moussavi and have largely limited themselves to challenging the legitimacy of this election/vote. I’m not certain that that is the case, I only know what I’ve been able to read on the internet. Has there been a change in the demonstrators’ attitude since Khatemei’s defiant pronouncement today? I would think that if they truly are challenging the regime itself such statements as Khatemei’s would enrage them, or at least induce them to reveal definitively whether they were merely pro-”reform” or explicitly anti-Islamic Revolution.
If they are not explicitly anti-Regime, it seems to me that they must therefore basically accept the regime. If even under these conditions they accpet the regime, it suggests that the control exercised by the Council & Co. have successfully limited the people’s perspective to a rather limited sense of grievance. If this is true, it is my opinion that – in tandem with all the hard power and intelligence resources the regime could bring into play – the scope of the demonstrations could have been more or less anticipated by the Council in advance. If that is the case, then this whole event could have been used as a way to induce a certain response in the West, or at least provide powerful ammunition to the elites who favor non-intervention (diplomacy, sanctions) in the West.
Just my 2 cents. I don’t really know anything.
Jun 19, 2009 - 7:31 am 22. dan:Insufficiently Sensitive – yes. Don’t the situations you outline strikingly resemble those in 1917 and 1989-91 Russia? Only the core ideology appears to be different. The strategy and tactics appear identical. I submit that this is not merely an accident, or the mechanical expression of some universal law of revolution.
Jun 19, 2009 - 7:34 am 23. michael hoskins:Do we stir the pot a little or wait for the boil to slow to a simmer?
Do we have assets on the ground?
Is there an opportunity to get a detailed look at the weapons program? Possibly even put a wrench or two in it? etc.
The point…is his O-ness taking advantage of the crisis or, it being foreign and muslim, is he sitting it out….(it seems the Brits are!)
Jun 19, 2009 - 7:56 am 24. exhelodrvr:What kind of influence did a democratic Iraq have on the willingness of the Iranian people to protest at this level?
RWE,
Jun 19, 2009 - 8:06 am 25. Subotai Bahadur:“October 1965 edition of Action Comics,”
Right now, we could sure use Sgt Rock and his Howling Commandos!
May I offer another scenario that the WSJ overlooks? A variant of,
* The forces of repression win within Iran, causing a backlash from the rest of the world.
The forces of repression win, and there is not only no backlash, but a surge of support from the rest of the world; led by Buraq Hussein Obama.
Obama is desperate for Ahmadinejad to win, both because of his ideological congruence with him and because he has staked his future on having a Munich moment with him. We can rule out any hostile reaction from the EU, because they have supported Muslim dictatorships consistently for the last couple of generations; in part to oppose the US, and in part because of their natural inclinations. They may, I admit, be somewhat confused to be in sync with US policy; but in general they have acted to support dictators there, preferring the most despotic and strongest supporters of terrorism.
The concept of either Russia or China changing policies because of human rights violations; and turning on their long time ally goes into fantasy. If the protestors are crushed, the governments of the world will rally to the Iranian regime.
If the regime is overthrown, you will see the opposite reaction; as all of the powers concerned have reason to fear the concept of the powers-that-be being overthrown by the will of the people.
Subotai Bahadur
Jun 19, 2009 - 8:10 am 26. Jonathan Rubinstein:Iran has been experiencing an extraordinary brain drain for at least a decade. It may be the regime is happy to see the intelligentsia leave while they hire Koreans and Chinese to run things. In the end, this leads to something akin to North Korea — armed and dangerous, out of control. It may be that A. did win the election. It may be he did not and we are witnessing a putsch within the ruling “clique”. What is completely unanticipated is the appearance of several million urban Iranians of different social classes protesting the system that controls their lives. This is fundamental and irreversible change. What will happen? Nobody knows, especially among those who run the country because something new has happened which they have to account for, something that will influence how they think and act tomorrow, which was not in their thinking last week. This is big. From the eastern edge of the Mediterranean to the Indian Ocean, all the world is in motion.
Jun 19, 2009 - 8:28 am 27. RWE:Exhelo #24:
Yes, Sgt Fury would wrap things up easily.
And I would send in the Blackhawks in their souped up F-90’s for air cover.
Wonder Woman could just walk around Tehran in her outfit and cause the government to fall right there.
Jun 19, 2009 - 8:44 am 28. Martin McPhillips:Under the Bernard Lewis formulation of how Islam faces its problems (”For Islam the solution to the problems of Islam is more Islam”), Iranian Islamic revolutionists threw off the modernizing (yes, modernizing) regime of the Shah in 1979 and replaced it with a radical fundamentalist theocratic regime, still in power.
Jumping ahead (or back) to a look through the Toynbee lens, Iran and Islam as a whole are well along the road of disintegration. Iran making a sudden leap into democracy could make the situation even worse, and we could find out that the deterioration is as great in Iran as it is in Russia. In any case, there’s no cause for optimism, while despair is a sin. Briefly, though, I would look to the Bernard Lewis insight: the solution to the problems of Iran will sooner or later turn to more Islam.
Jun 19, 2009 - 8:53 am 29. joe buzz:What does it say when the Egyptian govt. takes a harder line on the quest for freedom than the POTUS?:
Source- MEMRI, Free Republic and Gateway Pundit Please also see VDH letting Team 44 have it with both barrels at the same link.
Jun 19, 2009 - 9:02 am 30. Martin McPhillips:My prayer after Bill Clinton took office in ‘93 was “Dear Lord, don’t let him discover foreign policy or the military.”
In any of this Obama can only make mistakes, and bad ones. Let him keep his mouth shut. It’s the best thing he can do. If he would learn that lesson in domestic affairs as well, so much the better.
This is a very, very glib President, and a very ignorant, delusional one. He shouldn’t be goaded into anything, other than silence, by the opposition.
Jun 19, 2009 - 9:16 am 31. joe buzz:USS McCain preparing to intercept NorK ship
Jun 19, 2009 - 9:50 am 32. NahnCee:“But one thing the WSJ is in no doubt about is that events in Iran caught most the administration flat-footed. They are still struggling to understand what is going on.”
I have wondered to myself a couple of times whether CIA / SEALS / NSA infiltrated and put in place by the Bush administration (or even Israeli Mossad) might have had a part in encouraging the crowds to rise up and take to the streets. It’s not unheard-of historicaly for the CIA to try to affect elections in other countries.
It just seems so incredible to me that a country that is perfectly happy jogging along for decades hating America, recruiting and training world-wide terrorists, and being proud of its nuclear aspirations should all of a sudden — in the space of about 48 hours — throw off the reins of its mad mullahs and decide they want to join the rest of the human race.
If normal Iranians are breaking their pact with their leadership then that would, of course, take care of Iran’s nuclear aspirations, too, wouldn’t it? If normal Iranians are breaking their pact with their leadership, doesn’t that also mean that Israel would be safe from Iranian mullah attacks?
Or would we be reading too much into the street demonstrations, so that the tens of thousands of “normal Persians” in the streets of the cities of Iran would *still* want nuclear weapons to go after Israel and America, and would *still* want to fund Al-Queda and other international terrorists just because.
However, if the administration is as flat-footed and dumb-struck as they appear to be, then I guess it’s out of the question that, for once, the CIA might have been ahead of the game and actually proactively useful. (If Israel was actively fomenting rebellion in Tehran, would they have notified Obama?)
Jun 19, 2009 - 9:59 am 33. Martin McPhillips:“I have wondered to myself a couple of times whether CIA / SEALS / NSA infiltrated and put in place by the Bush administration (or even Israeli Mossad) might have had a part in encouraging the crowds to rise up and take to the streets. It’s not unheard-of historicaly for the CIA to try to affect elections in other countries.”
First thing that occurred to me when I saw the way the thing took off was that considerable planning and organization had gone into such spontaneous events.
But nobody’s getting into the vault to look at any paper on that for a long time, if it exists.
So the events are just the events. If history lasts long enough, there could be some footnotes.
Jun 19, 2009 - 10:09 am 34. Derek:The danger from chaos and collapse isn’t the chaos and collapse, it is the demagogue who harnesses the energy of chaos and collapse to his own end. The Mullah’s played that game when the nation roused to defeat the Shah. Now they are on the other end.
The protests, the way the protests are being done, this isn’t a random uprising.
Derek
Jun 19, 2009 - 10:13 am 35. RWE:Nahncee 32 and Martin 33:
We know from open statements made during the Bush Admin that we were consorting, consulting, colluding, cavorting, or whatever with the opposition in Iran. One example was a Bush Admin statement that it was suggested that we just invade Iran and then get out fast and let the opposition take over.
Also, there were reports that there were US teams inside Iran Iding targets.
Now, as to whether we kept up those contacts after Iran was “nice” enough to supposedly cut back on support of the uprising in Iraq.
And whether The Prince cut back on these efforts when he came into office as part of his “extend the hand” approach -
Well, we’ll just have to wait for the Timmerman or Ledeen book to come out.
But it shore looks suspicious.
Jun 19, 2009 - 11:10 am 36. Konyok:Khamenei said his piece: “Like it or lump it!”
There is now no turning back for anybody.
I’m expecting the announcement any minute now of a curfew in Tehran.
In the Iranian morning we will learn whether the rank and file Revolutionary Guards will fire on their fellow citizens, and whether the Iranian people will stand or flee.
The regime has prepared the ground the best it could. Foreign correspondents are expelled or corraled. Cell phone networks are under control. Reportedly two divisions of Pasdaran are marshalled on the outskirts of the city.
The opposition has followed the Gandhian script almost to the letter, even undermining Khamenei’s religious primacy by usurping the call “Allahu Akbar!”
One thing that we don’t know is what occured in the myriad mosques of Iran today. Did the local mullahs parrot Khamenei? Or, did they side with the people? (Forget CIA / SEALS / NSA fantasies – no more effective than my dog’s telekinetic efforts to secure my porkchop.) This is where the battle will be one or lost.
The urban intelligentsia and organized workers crave the fall of Khamenei. (Interestingly, their momentum is 180 degrees from their comrades in the USA.) Obviously, the beneficiaries of the corruption and trickle down Islamic authority from the regime will defend their prerequisites. It is the mushy middle, the congregations of those myriad mosques who will decide after the events of tonight and tomorrow whether Iran will abandon it’s balancing act between “Islamic” and “Republic” and become one or the other.
Jun 19, 2009 - 11:13 am 37. NahnCee:Perhaps the funding that elected Obama came from Persian overseas coffers, which could explain why he’s so hesitant about criticizing the holders of those purse strings, why he’s so eager to stab Israel in the back, and why he’s suddenly proud of his middle name.
Konyok, it always frustrates me when I meet someone who absolutely refuses to look for a Plan B, C or D because it’s so much easier to just dig one’s heels in and cynically say, “I don’t believe it — it’s just a publicity stunt.” It strikes me that that is an incredibly lazy way of looking at the world.
Jun 19, 2009 - 11:35 am 38. Marie Claude:Subotai Bahadur:
nah, you set the dictators there, Saddam as well as Khomeini, we had no means to contradict you for that, just some relative inerty when your leaders fantisied to remove what they had previously conspirated
Jun 19, 2009 - 11:46 am 39. exhelodrvr:There have been significant signs of dissatisfaction for the past 20 years in Iran; something like this was eventually going to happen. This should not be a complete shock to anyone, other than (perhaps) the size of the demonstrations and the speed at which the situation has progressed.
Jun 19, 2009 - 12:17 pm 40. Konyok:NahnCee,
For me it seems more like using Occam’s razor.
It is indeed *possible* that dark operations can produce very large effects. We did manage to overthrow Mossadegh, Guzman and Allende. None of those coups was expressed as “people power,” and none involved US special military operations, at least not in a leading role. The main tool was simply money given to the right player at the right time. I just can’t see SEALS instructing Iranian students to assemble at Khomeini square. (Any more than I believe that secret messages from Fox News instructed the Tea Parties … )
Kh. and A. would certainly like the Iranian people and the world to believe that Mousavi, Khatami, Monterazi and, especially, Rafsanjani are American bag men. Who knows, there probably have been some kind of contacts. But, were whatever contacts uniquely responsible for the Green Revolution?
It seems to me that many people simply can’t accept that human beings are capable of great heroism and self organization in times of crisis. They are always looking for the puppet master.
I did not believe von Daniken’s thesis that superior aliens constructed the wonders of the ancient world, and I do not believe that cabals, secret societies or mysterious government agencies drive modern history. They certainly can complicate things, but social phenomena like the Green Revolution have a tornado-like capriciousness that nobody can control.
Ultimately, it will boil down to millions of decisions made by individuals over the next couple of days. Events will inevitably sweep over the *leaders,* no matter what happens.
Jun 19, 2009 - 12:34 pm 41. Alexis:I think there is another possibility neither the Wall Street Journal nor Washington analysts may have considered – the present regime in Iran may decide to attack the United States directly and force the United States of America into fighting a war against it whether we want a war with the Iranian regime or not.
Mr. Khamenei in particular is an acolyte of Sayed Kotb; his hatred for the United States is almost certainly genuine. To the Iranian regime, it does not matter whether there is ever any evidence of American meddling in Iranian politics because the entire notion of American meddling in Iranian politics is axiomatic to the regime. Mr. Khamenei’s anti-American bigotry is probably so deep that he would never believe that the United States would either refrain from interfering in Iranian politics or even help his regime by groveling to him.
So, the Iranian government may very well attack the United States with everything it has in the vain hope that he can rally Iranian nationalists behind a war against the United States. In the minds of Mr. Khamenei and Mr. Ahmadinejad, the United States is probably seen as worn out by the war in Iraq and having a wimp in the White House, so now would be a perfect time to strike both the United States and Israel. After all, they probably believe their own lies claiming how we are so decadent! If Iran gets wiped off the map by an Israeli counteroffensive, that would be even better to such a fanatic because it would also wipe out most of the Iranian government’s opposition. So, in the fevered imaginations of our enemies, starting a war against us now may make perfect sense.
Jun 19, 2009 - 1:24 pm 42. Mongoose:Well Nahncee’s onto something with the funding, but it is doubtful that this is a direct result of direct action campaigns from the the US intel community, and even more doubtful that they would use SOCOM or NSA personnel for any such in country direct action operations which have as a primary goal the defeat of the Iranian regime.
SEAL operators on the ground would be doubtful indeed.
I would not, on the other hand, rule out Mossad, and there well might be some US support for that sort of thing.
It would sure not be SEALs; they just do direct action. They do not do the sort of long term infiltration or political action that would be required. They are really just military special operators. All that “SEALs as spies” stuff is just Hollywood hokum. At best someone might use all this as a pretext or cover to send in more standard SOCOM operators after a more tangible objective–like hitting opposition leaders or taking out nuke assets. (well one can dream, can’t one?)
Delta might have put operators in there and they could still be around, and that is a real possibility, but it would be a very tiny team with a very focused brief. They certainly could not turn a nation, and in any event would be directed by another agency. The CIA? they can see those guys coming form miles away–continents away, but could be, I guess. It would be their sort of play, but they have not showed much competence in these matters over the years.
I mean if they cannot crack a nut like Castro or Chavez, just how good are they, really?
In reality, GWB has to radically shake up the intel community, and in particular start create organizations like the DHS because the CIA has become so inept and self-dealing over the years that it was practically useless for the WOT. One thing is clear, if they are directly involved, the Iranian opposition would be stupid indeed to let them inside, and even stupider not to know who they are. Should it come out, and it most certainly would, it would completely discredit them. Guess it is possible though. Unlikely, but possible. If it is the CIA then it is an altogeher good thing.
In any event, such an operation would most likely have to be way deep in the intel community and essential dark from our own “government”. No way the Democrats would allows this of they got wind of it. If it ever comes out just who was bought in the Democrat Party, I think that we would be very shocked indeed. It might just topple the whole political system.
As for the NSA, there seems to be a complete misunderstanding of this organization, one foisted on us by Hollywood and the like. It irks me to constantly see this so let me comment upon this here.
The NSA does not perform anything like covert operations. They almost solely do Cryptology–mostly cryptanalysis and cryptography–and some supporting functions such as signal processing, translation, some very limited content analysis, and collation. They do own some of the signal detection and capture infrastructure, but not all ot it by any means. For instance, the NRO runs the satellite infrastructure. They may be used for time to time to mislead people. They do not “run agents” or have local “informants” or “operatives” They do not have “covert teams” running around shooting at bad guys in an alley in Macao or anything even remotely like that. I imagine that the only people in the NSA that are issued sidearms are the security personnel. All of these notions of the NSA are just in the fevered imaginations of the the Media and misinformed and paranoid leftists. About 99% of NSA personnel are either computer, math or linguistics geeks, and few people would trust them with more than a sharp pencil (and even then they would keep an eye on them).
Basically, their “customers” are the actually analytical and operational intelligence agencies, and it is they who do most of the analysis and all direction operations.
Unless things have changed lately, even the regular armed services to do not have direct access to their product unless it comes though standard civilian intel organization (e.g.: the CIA) or similar Military organization (e.g,: the DIA).
They would have little to do in a situation like this other than supply signal intel or encryption support.
The intel communitee is profoundly partitioned in function in order to prevent shenagans beyond the control of elected official. At least that is the idea.
Of course, smart insiders can use this very structure to actually obscure things. But the point is that to get something like this to work, there as to be a rather broad conspiracy across institutions, and that is typically hard to do,
So if there is some American operation behind this Obama is either in the dark about it, or does know and is exceedingly subtle and clever–much more than we have given him credit for heretofore. Given that idiotic speech in Cairo, my money is on the former.
Of course, that does not preclude that there are more subtle games afoot from the USA intel community, such as long term psy-ops, turning/discrediting insiders or aiding foreign intel services (or misleading Iran’s allies), but these would be be more serendipitous than synchronized.
Now Mossad, now that is another matter altogether. They are much more competent than we are. And one might be surprised to learn just what corners they might get help from.
Jun 19, 2009 - 2:22 pm 43. buckets:RWE @ 13
You brought up an interesting yet somehow satisfying observation –
These days, it’s not “Kurds and Shia in Iraq breaking away to join Iran” – we are actually contemplating the exact opposite series of events. Who ever thought we’d even be talking about Kurds and Shia in Iran breaking away to join their co-religionists and tribal relations in Iraq?
We must have done something right in Iraq and the Middle East, no?
Jun 19, 2009 - 2:23 pm 44. Gringo:40. Konyok:
We did manage to overthrow Mossadegh, Guzman and Allende. None of those coups was expressed as “people power…”
With regards to Allende and Chile, the historical record suggests otherwise.
Those who consider the CIA responsible for the coup against the democratically elected Allende have examined the historical record in a very superficial manner. Three weeks before the coup, the also democratically elected House of Deputies passed by 81-47 a resolution titled the “Declaration of the Breakdown of Chile’s Democracy.” An excerpt follows.
In general and in specific, the resolution could be interpreted as an invitation to a coup. Allende himself called it such. The democratically elected members of the House of Deputies would not have passed such a strongly-worded resolution by a commanding 63- 37% majority if their constituents, the Chilean people, were not also disgusted with the Allende government’s repeated violations of law and democratic procedure. This was “people power” in Chile.
Jun 19, 2009 - 2:27 pm 45. Herb:People are in the streets over an election that was fixed to begin with (See Who’s on First yesterday). People in Iran cant be operating under any illusions about their rulers. The economy has been shot for a long time. There is a veneer of modernity with access to the internet which shows them the rest of the world but is overlaid by a notoriously oppressive religious regime trying to impose a 1400 year old poem as a guide to set of requirements for the 21th Century. The low state of the place is illuminated by their 1.6 fertility rate. Spengler is absolutely correct: People without hope dont have babies.
If you have people without hope they do wild and crazy things.
There is obviously no theocratic consensus among the various ayatollahs. People in Iran have seen how well the ayatollahs have run the place for the past 30 years. They’ve seen the imported Arab muscle. They’ve seen the head chopping, hanging, maiming and the rest of it. If the mullahs are overrun, and they can be, it’ll be a cold day in hell before they get close to power again.
The Internet and TV and the rest of it has accelerated politics and the assimilation of political information (What Kaus calls the Feiler Faster principle). ideas move faster thru a society than they used to.
What this meandering comes down to is that Iran can, if the people can run out the mullahs, become the beginning of an Islamic Reformation, forced to reconcile the logical extension of islam exemplified by the practices of the real islamic republic of Iran with real people in the 21st Century.
But I could be wrong.
Jun 19, 2009 - 2:59 pm 46. Konyok:The curfew begins:
http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/meast/06/19/iran.speech.protests/
Gringo,
I’m willing to accept your interpretation of Allende’s fall. I do believe that the great majority of such events are chaotic, if predictable, and not easily controlled.
Herb might just be right. This could be Islam’s third bite at the apple of modernity.
Jun 19, 2009 - 3:18 pm 47. Highlander:Re: Alexis @ 41:
“…the United States is probably seen as worn out by the war in Iraq….”
If I were in the mullah’s shoes right now, I should be more concerned about bored American soldiers next door who just might be itching for a good fight.
Re: Herb @ 45:
“…if the people can run out the mullahs, become the beginning of an Islamic Reformation….”
I’ve often wondered if this could be the case. However, if the powers that be in Cairo, Islamabad, and Riyadh are concerned about the influence of a revolutionary Iran, how much greater would be their concern for a democratic Iran?
The prospect of democracy is an existential threat to the likes of Mubarak and the House of Saud; hence, their continued lukewarm attitude towards Iraq following the overthrow of Saddam. The “apostate” Shia have shamed the Sunni world twice in recent years, first with the 1979 revolution of an “Islamic” government after the decades of failure of Nasser-style socialism and secondly with the emergence of Hezbollah as a model for Islamic resistance against the West. Within the Muslim world, these have considerably enhanced the position of the Shia. How much greater shame and erosion of their power and legitimacy would they experience with the emergence of a truly democratic Iran?
Expect the “Islamic World” to bring every weapon to bear, rhetorical and otherwise, to suffocate the sparks of this counter-revolution in Iran. I fear that there will, in fact, be blood.
Israel has been distinctly jittery in recent years regarding Iran. Sad to see. “Back in the day” they were always such cool customers…. My greatest fear is that Israel will be baited into conducting pre-emptive strikes against targets in Iran, which would serve the dual purposes of preserving the existing regimes in Iran and elsewhere, and galvanizing those regimes into taking a more militant stand against the West, most likely destroying Israel in the process and opening up a much bigger can of worms than we are currently facing. I wonder how long the current leadership in Iran will resist trying to play that card. What can be done to dissuade them of that course of action?
There are many big players who would seem to be very glad to cast their lot with “the Devil they know”, and maintain the status quo. My hope is that America will not choose the “nuanced, learned” (read: “expedient”) route and throw the people of Iran under the bus for the sake of maintaining “stability”. But then again, I’ve often been accused of being a dreamy idealist….
Jun 19, 2009 - 3:34 pm 48. Wadeusaf:What is the result of the committee of experts? It is a body that is believed to be controlled by Rafsanjhani, and is capable of removing a Great Leader and installing another one. Within that body there is a certain an sure movement away from supporting the Ayatollah Khamenei and Ahmadineajad. The like or lump it is a challenge to the velveteers which says that the current president has the muscle to win the day, and spits right in the eye of the Experts. I am hear John, Paul, George, Ringo and Khamenei telling the others
“If you want it, here it is
Come and get it
Make your mind up fast
If you want it anytime I can give it
But you better hurry ’cause it may not last
Did I hear you say that there must be a catch?
Will you walk away from a fool and his money?
If you want it, here it is
Come and get it
But you better hurry ’cause it’s going fast.”
So the snub of the voters to Ahmadineajad, with or without a rigged election is real and has broad support among the people of Iran. Khamenei is just thumbing his nose at everyone.
There seems to be just no way the “official results” are credible or real I don’t care how much fairy dust is applied, that pig ain’t gonna sprout wings and fly. So now the real stand off begins. Just as the Reza Aslan on Maddow’s show said, this is not a new thing for the Velveteers, nor is a new thing for Ahmadineajad and company. More days of mourning are due no doubt, for the ones that died in hospital since the violent preview of death. And that is only what we know is happening in Tehran. I don’t think the WSJ has a clue even given the six scenarios, of what the potentials are. But then, I don’t either.
Jun 19, 2009 - 3:37 pm 49. Wadeusaf:bob RE: Mel’s hole
It is a little known factoid, that in eastern Washington there was once a lot of giant worm activity and the worm sign can still be seen in the Gorge, and near the woolen mills and in the ancient dunes. While over the years wagon wheels have erased the sign and volcanic flows have stoppered the trails, this particular hole was an especially elderly worm caught up in the devastation of MT Hood in eons past. Like an ancient tree, it was felled but the lava cooled around it leaving a reverse impression.
So your inference is suggesting the Madhi is hanging in…Ellensburg may have historic relevance…, or not.
thanks, for the laugh.
Jun 19, 2009 - 4:01 pm 50. Doug:The Repression in Iran is Worse Than You Think – Michael Ledeen –
A family in Shahrake Gharb who were holding a wake for their son killed in the protests were attacked by the riot guards in their home. Their home was set ablaze and all present in the wake were beaten up. Their crime was that they held a mourning ceremony for their son.
The repression is beyond belief. Not even the war veterans and their families are left alone. Yesterday the wife of the former assassinated prime minister, Rajaii, and other relatives of the war martyrs who had backed candidates other than Ahmadienjad were also arrested.
Potkin is very well informed. I am sure that all Western governments have similar information, including our own. Whatever your view on how aggressively the president and secretary of state should condemn the murder of peaceful demonstrators in Iran — all over Iran, not just in Tehran (Potkins’s first story comes from Shiraz, please notice) — I continue to believe that silence is a form of complicity. I don’t think it’s at all smart, or honorable. But then, I have long advocated regime change.
Jun 19, 2009 - 4:02 pm 51. Lifeofthemind:“but from a strong, internally coherent Iranian nation that explodes outward from a natural geographic platform to shatter the region around it.” – Wretchard quoting Totten quoting Kaplan.
aka Tinkers to Evers to Chance
Is the geopolitical setting of Iran as unique as indicated? If so does that explain their impact?
The Russians and Germans have historically followed the pattern of exploding out onto their neighbors. The difference from Iran is that in the European cases it is the lack of secure natural borders that has been used to explain their tendency to expand. So which model is correct, strong boundaries breed instability or weak ones?
China has tended to dominate the hinterlands by expelling minority nomadic communities who wrecked havoc as they traveled outwards. The Huns were only the most prominent of a series of such migrations who could be viewed as slow moving primitive weapons of mass destruction. The Chinese did not care where the barbarian hordes landed as long as they headed outbound.
My expectation is that it will be seen that the Iranians have been punching way above their weight while traveling a self destructive road that denies them the resources that match their pretensions. They can not use their resources and numbers to expand on the Russo-Germanic model (a past model that those two no longer have the demographics for) and they cannot dominate their neighbors or minorities so thoroughly as to use them as weapons to spread destabilization in the Chinese way. The expectation that nuclear weapons will prove a magic bullet to ensure their authority is also flawed.
The Iranians are facing a world where larger and wealthier neighbors have access to equal or superior technology and the surrounding ethnic or imperial communities, Chinese, Indian, Turkish and Arab, will manuever to carve up the resources of the Iranian periphery.
Jun 19, 2009 - 4:08 pm 52. Mongoose:Doug: Of course it is not smart or honorable.
It is extremely stupid and honorableness. By even the most self-aggrandizing calculations and motivations, it is stupid.
Why does he hold back? There must be a deeper agenda here as far as goes Obama’s part.
Pure evil. When will the American people wise up.
Jun 19, 2009 - 4:16 pm 53. Wadeusaf:Robert Kaplans piece, that Michael Totten references introduces some questions, but the geographical template he attempts to apply is way off, I think, and the map does not appear match the movement of cultures.
Of all the various clan and tribal affiliations the most fierce are the Baluchi on the border of Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran. They tried to assassinate Ahmadineajad, before. And have suffered multiple indignities at Iranian hands but I don’t know that they have yet to be subdued by the IIRC.
The Kurds in the North and West are easier to gather news about, and we know that late last year the Iranian Air force flew into Iraq to bomb Kurdish forces there. With Iranian treasure being spent to keep Hezbollah and Hammas afloat a victory by the velveteers would certainly be a defeat for those forces as well as resulting in the denuclearizing a lot of Iranian defense plans. I think the situation in North Korea would change dramatically as well.
It is easy to see why we would want the velveteers to be ultimately victorious. It is also easy to understand why Khamenei and Ahmadineajad are not going to give up easily. This is for all the marbles, and no one has indicated they are going home yet.
Jun 19, 2009 - 4:27 pm 54. cjm:the fall of communism in eastern germany happened pretty spontaneously, if i remember correctly. i doubt very much that we had a hand in causing a popular uprising of this magnitude. for whatever reason, the “herd” in iran caught a whiff of something and all started moving.
Jun 19, 2009 - 4:46 pm 55. cjm:it would be pretty damn funny if israel was somehow responsible for this uprising.
Jun 19, 2009 - 4:50 pm 56. Mad Fiddler:I cannot keep from recalling with shudders that this regime is the one that thought of and implemented the “Martyr Brigades” made up of 12-year-old conscripts during the war with Saddam’s Iraq that dragged on for 8 years during the 1980’s. These skinny kids were sent barefoot and dressed in pyjamas ahead of the older armed soldiers to walk through Iraqi minefields, so as to explode the mines and clear lanes for those following.
It’s sickening to consider the brutalizing and intimidation that must have been imposed on parents to drag their children away. Iran’s population is NOT the same as the “rabid-dog Palestinians.” On the other hand, Saddam Hussein came close to victory in some of those battles.
It’s also difficult to imagine that surviving family members (and even Martyrs) have forgotten those sacrifices, squandered doubly by a regime that continues to brutalize them in victory, while seeing the hated Saddam toppled in weeks by the USA (”The Great Satan”), after Iran spent EIGHT YEARS in a war comparable to the Trench Warfare of WWI just to achieve a draw…
Jun 19, 2009 - 5:53 pm 57. Mongoose:Gringo: how right you are about Allende.
Jun 19, 2009 - 6:12 pm 58. RAH:It seems to me that the Iranian popular unrest has gone too far for the rulers to contain. This is a mob and can easily flash into an unruly mob. The mob wants to uproot the regime and may create a new ruling structure. Rather than the 1979 revolution I think of the French Revolution. Once the mobs get the taste of blood or success they will not be stopped. IRG 20K are insufficient to stop 2 million in a crowd. The IRG loyalty is questionable. Ahmadinejad had this pre set up with uniforms and motorcycles brand new ready for the Palestinians, Hamas and Lebanese Hezbolla mercenaries.
1) Where did Ahmadinejad get the money to preposition and equipment for foreign forces?
2) Can the mercenaries be removed by removing their pay?
I see a few consequences. The civilian Basenji who emulate the Saudi model of enforcing Sharia behavior in dress codes, etc are the thugs that have been shooting most of the victims. The people know these Basenji. The first to be killed is these hated Basenji.
IRG may not be a factor since loyalties are divided.
This is not a fight to put Mousavi in power but to eliminate Khamenai and installed a different Supreme Leader.
Khamenai has sided with secular military forces of Ahmadinejad who is conveniently out of the country. This is a coup to create a military dictatorship and the other mullahs are contesting that. However rousing the mob is dangerous tactic and no one knows where or what a mob will do. They are riding the tiger and may get eaten.
I am hopeful that the mob will throw all the bums out and institute a more liberal freedom democracy. Some sort of republic and get rid of the religious hierarchy as secular power.
Jun 20, 2009 - 2:48 am 59. Belmont Club » Pulled across the Rubicon:[...] there is no one any longer to send them to. Reuel Marc Gerecht in the Weekly Standard and the Belmont Club argued some days ago that whatever happens things in Iran will not go back to the status quo ante. [...]
Jun 20, 2009 - 2:33 pm 60. Steynian 366 « Free Canuckistan!:[...] MICHAEL TOTTEN describes Iran as a great nation trapped in the straitjacket of tyranny …. [...]
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