29 Comments

1. rule 303:

Good , less Iranians for my kids to have to kill…

Jun 20, 2009 - 4:42 pm 2. dumpster4:

“Elsewhere in the Iranian capital on Saturday, there were reports that a suicide bomber blew himself up at the mausoleum of the father of Iran’s revolution, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.

State media in Iran said two people were wounded in the incident in the northern wing of the shrine.”

See:

http://www.cbc.ca/world/story/2009/06/20/iran.html

Jun 20, 2009 - 5:04 pm 3. lc:

Ruel Marc Gerecht, a knowledgeable observer and commentator on Iran, in an article in the Weekly Standard, says much the same thing…what is happening in Iran is momentous, whatever the outcome; the Islamic Republic, however much it lived up to (or not) its founding, is a thing of the past. An interesting read:

http://tiny.cc/0lL9L

I think the 900 lb gorilla in the outhouse is Iraq: a nascent democracy with a Shiite majority and a number of significant “minorities”, and appearing to be a successful enterprise. Gerecht in the past has also talked about the significance of Iraq.

But we can’t talk about that…war of choice and that sort of thing. Afterall, we must engage, which means we must have someone to engage with.

Just so.

Jun 20, 2009 - 5:26 pm 4. hadrian:

The two “live” places I’ve been watching events are:
1. andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish
and
2. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/06/13/iran-demonstrations-viole_n_215189.html

Some quick observations:
a. I think the main mistake was to insult the people; i.e. not simply stealing the election, but doing so in so brazen a fashion. Everything from then on has been compounding that same mistake.
b. There are reports of riots in all the big iranian cities.
c. Look at how everyone with a camera phone immediately becomes an on-the-spot reporter. It’s not that easy to “control” the media anymore
d. Twitter does a surprisingly good job of getting out the feel of the thing. So little data, such a big effect.
e. Unknown the effect of having BBC add enough extra satelites to prevent jamming.
f. I wonder if the reaction type (OODA loops) of regime can keep up now
g. If the CIA wanted an iranian revolution plan for this century, they merely need a way to get those peoples SMS working again on their phones. Then they could coordinate their activities…

Jun 20, 2009 - 5:54 pm 5. Mongoose:

May God be with them. May he comfort the families of the dead.

May their deaths mean something to the future of Iran and the ME.

Jun 20, 2009 - 5:56 pm 6. sirius_sir:

Re: the 900 gorilla in the outhouse:

Iraq explains a lot — and provides the greatest irony of all. We wish not to meddle in Iran in order to encourage real democracy there, but we accept Iranian meddling intended to destroy Iraqi democracy. We reach out to the Shiite thug Ahmadinejad in Iran, but not to the Shiite moderate Maliki in Iraq. We feel so guilty about promoting Iraqi democracy that we won’t aid its budding counterpart in nearby Iran. We are so wedded to the canard that the removal of Saddam removed the counterweight to Iran and empowered the clerics that we cannot see the existence of Iraqi democracy as a great catalyst to the democratic forces in Iran, undermining the theocracy more with words than Iran could undermine the Iraqi democracy with guns.

http://victorhanson.com/articles/hanson062009.html

Jun 20, 2009 - 6:08 pm 7. Doug:

Obama’s ignorance of history is on naked display — no sense of the brutality of Iran’s Islamist regime, of the years of mass imprisonments, diabolical torture, prison rapes, wholesale executions and secret graves that made the shah’s reign seem idyllic. Our president seems to regard the Iranian protesters as spoiled brats.

Facts? Who cares? In his Cairo sermon — a speech that will live in infamy — our president compared the plight of the Palestinians, the aggressors in 1948, with the Holocaust. He didn’t mention the million Jews dispossessed and driven from Muslim lands since 1948, nor the ongoing ethnic cleansing of Palestinian Christians from the West Bank.

Now our president’s attempt to vote “present” yet again green-lights the Iranian regime’s determination to face down the demonstrators — and the mullahs understand it as such.

If we see greater violence in Tehran, the blood of those freedom marchers will be on our president’s hands.
—
GREEN LIGHT FOR A CRACKDOWN

Jun 20, 2009 - 6:11 pm 8. herb:

Well, Ole Bill is heard again

“This story shall the good man teach his son;
And Crispin Crispian shall ne’er go by,
From this day to the ending of the world,
But we in it shall be remembered-
We few, we happy few, we band of brothers;
For he to-day that sheds his blood with me
Shall be my brother; be he ne’er so vile,
This day shall gentle his condition;
And gentlemen in Teheran now-a-bed
Shall think themselves accurs’d they were not here,
And hold their manhoods cheap whiles any speaks
That fought with us upon Saint Crispin’s day.”

May the One God in Three have mercy on these souls in peril.

Jun 20, 2009 - 6:30 pm 9. lc:

Sirius #5 -

I sure like Victor Davis Hanson. He has been writing some excellent stuff lately…he’s someone who recognizes the emperor for what he is.

Jun 20, 2009 - 6:31 pm 10. Mongoose:

Doug: One wonders if this will fracture the Left here a bit. There are those, particularly among the young, that are not possessed of the sort of cynicism held by Obama or the apparatchiks in the Democrat Party. They really quite do not really understand what the Left is really about.

Perhaps some light of day will creep in?

Jun 20, 2009 - 6:57 pm 11. Mongoose:

LC: So true about VDH. He is becoming a sort of 21st century American version of Burke.

He has been on a roll for about a year, it seems ot me.

Jun 20, 2009 - 6:58 pm 12. ExNavyDoc:

The events in Iran may ultimately, though indirectly, result in the preservation of hundreds of thousands of Iranian and Israeli lives. A change in Iran’s government may be enough to stay Israel’s hand in attacking the regime’s nuclear and other critical sites. After all, why would Israel attack an enemy who is already doing a pretty good job of dismantling himself on his own?

Jun 20, 2009 - 7:03 pm 13. whiskey:

On the other hand, a victory for Ahmadinejad and the Mullahs pretty much guarantees an Israeli first strike. Which is most likely.

Bet on the men with the guns.

As a practical matter, I’m sure Obama is assisting the Mullahs and Ahmadinejad however he can, with the CIA ordered to get whatever info can be gleaned on the opposition and feeding it to the Mullahs.

Jun 20, 2009 - 7:22 pm 14. Doug:

9. Mongoose,
Good thought. I think from time to time how much more extreme the left is now than when I was young.
OTOH:
We do have to figure in how much LESS American History, Citizenship, and etc. kids are exposed to in our Govt Schools.

Jun 20, 2009 - 7:22 pm 15. Mongoose:

Whiskey: well the Israelis are showing a lot of restraint this week.

They were not caught flat-footed, now where they?

But surely you are right. If it does turn out badly, they will have no choice.

After this display, the rest of the ME might be glad that they did, even if they would not admit to it in public.

Jun 20, 2009 - 7:29 pm 16. Mark:

Doug writes: “We do have to figure in how much LESS American History, Citizenship, and etc. kids are exposed to in our Govt Schools.”

My honor student high schooler can repeat chapter and verse of American injustice, imperialism, colonialism, racism, etc. He says that the U.S. has no right to intervene or meddle in Iran. The training inflicted by the schools has been persistent for years, so I’m not surprised at the lack of interest of young people in issues re. freedom and justice in Iran. Who are we to say what ‘freedom’ is, after all? Whatever Obama does seems seems sufficient for young people. If he had been forceful re. Iran, that would be ok. If he’s withdrawn, that shows how smart he is too.

Jun 20, 2009 - 8:31 pm 17. E. Nigma:

In the other thread about Stalin, it was remarked how Russia was killed by its most earnest children, and all that is left if a zombie. So sad, but it seems true.

The US won’t kill itself, it will just be lobotomized by terrible public education and inane popular entertainment. Once any serious idea can be serially ridiculed by the mental midgets on the networks, we are down in a slippery pit that cannot be climbed out of.

Lobotomized.

Jun 20, 2009 - 8:53 pm 18. Marcus Aurelius:

If Khameni wins then I am sure we can expect purges in Iran, Rafsanjani & Mousavi and his ilk will find themselves up against the wall along with those who played smaller roles in the affair. I don’t expect this result will be too long in coming. The longer things play out the more likely the result will favor not Khameni but Rafsanjani & Mousavi. However, they will have a much harder time consolidating solid and reliable positions for themselves.

If the later case turns out to be reality then Khameni and his ilk are dead and as we know in such cases they often end up dangling in public, still this does not mean Mousavi and his side win, then the jockeying begin. Things will be topsy turvy but Iran will not degenerate into a Somalia or split into separate nations.

As far as Obama hedging his bets, he will not have to, he can just claim after this is all destabilized that what he said was meant to bolster the winning side.

Jun 20, 2009 - 9:05 pm 19. Konyok:

Iran is very lucky that American soldiers stand on on two of her borders. Saddam would have found this an irresistible temptation.
The neighborhood is already safer …

Jun 20, 2009 - 9:13 pm 20. ledger:

I believe this is the time to be opportunistic.

Iran has been at the heart of the Iran/Syrian/North Korean axis nuclear arms trading game. These weapons in the hands of terrorists pose an extreme threat to the world.

Mir Hossein Mousavi has said he will become a martyr if the elections are not annulled. The situation could not get much worse.

It actually could be quite advantageous to the USA and possibly democracy as a whole. Remember Khamenei and his goons were the ones who held USA embassy personnel hostage. We own him a payback.

I would suggest supplying the Mir Hossein Mousavi supporters with communication equipment and small arms.

Give Mousavi supporters enough command, control and fire power to inflict significant damage on Khamenei’s Revolutionary Guards. At least enough damage to rattle and possible flip a few Revolutionary Guards into changing sides and providing access to armories.

The idea is to disorganize your enemy and keep him tied up with internal strife. With the current situation being a tinder box a well timed spark could ignite it.

Aiding Mousavi supporters would keep Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his lackey Ahmadinejad hunkered down for personal safety and distracted from making nuclear weapons (and supporting terrorists).

There could also be some well timed liquidation of top leaders of the Revolutionary Guards. Better yet some of the top Revolutionary Guards may be flipped.

There is a spectrum of out comes using the above method.

1. Khamenei could be ousted and his lackey’s liquidated – and some seeds of democracy planted.

2. There could be a long and bloody civil war.

3. Lastly, a large number of Mousavi supporters could be jailed or destroyed leaving a lasting bitter resentment against Khamenei.

All of the above could prove costly and greatly hinder Khamenei from building ballistic nuclear weapons.

The major flaw in this scenario is a US President has no spine or military experience. Worse, he is infatuated with his own image, has shown dislike for America and has solid ties to Muslims (although not Persians).

Barring the above paragraph it is a perfect time to seize the initiative, defang a nuclear Iran, and possibly help the Iranian people gain some freedom and democracy.

Jun 20, 2009 - 9:19 pm 21. Tcobb:

We talk about patterns in history, and governments that have sowed, due to the intrinsic pattern of their rule, the seeds of their own destruction. Is this not playing out now?

I submit that an honest thugocracy (we’re thugs, we admit it, but we only want X percent of what you make and if you give it to us we’ll leave you alone) is a lot more stable than a regime like Iran’s, in which the legitimacy of the ruling class depends upon a level of virtue that few humans can ever really attain. Instead, it becomes a government dominated by those who can project an outward aura of being virtuous. Paradoxically, people who are best at this tend to have sociopathic tendencies. The more virtuous a society demands its rulers to be, the more likely it is that the leaders will be scum. The truly virtuous will not lie to disguise their faults. The scum will, and they will float to the top.

But Orwellian doublethink only works up to a point. They can say that your daily ration of ramen noodles is being “increased” from three packages a day to two packages, and expect you to pretend that this is so, but there are points at which the ability to suspend reason ends. And when this happens, and the spell ends, there can be severe consequences for the functionaries that fined us for saying that the emperor had no clothes. When doublethink breaks, it doesn’t just crack–it has a tendency to shatter into dust.

Jun 20, 2009 - 9:28 pm 22. ambisinistral:

I believe this is the time to be opportunistic.

I would give Assad a sharp solid rap and be making a lot of threatening noises towards southern Lebanon. Anything to keep the maximum number of Hez fighters in place and out of Iran. Knock the other guy off balance.

Obama won’t do that though. After a week of wearing a deer in the headlights look, mumbling vague platitudes and eating ice cream seems to be the extent of his game.

Jun 20, 2009 - 9:45 pm 23. Lifeofthemind:

It surprises me that Ahmadinejehad has not gotten the IRGC to provoke a confrontation in the Straits of Hormuz.

Jun 20, 2009 - 9:45 pm 24. Anodyne:

“After a week of wearing a deer in the headlights look, mumbling vague platitudes and eating ice cream seems to be the extent of his game.”

These count as “courage” and “foresight” in some circles …

Jun 20, 2009 - 9:48 pm 25. Mongoose:

Well, E.Nigma, if twitter is any guide, young Americans do seem to care about Iranians, particularly their own cohort over there. The usual wastrels are out in force in Union Square in Manhattan, only this time the flags are green instead of red.

There is a subtle undercurrent here: Obama has manipulated the idealism of youth in order to get elected. His cynicism, incompetence and cowardliness may alienate some of them.

The iranelection twitter stream certainly cannot be characterized as flattering to Obama.

We shall see. My guess is that this is not the moment were the scales fall, but it is an important step along the way. Unfortunately, there will be opportunities aplenty to see what stuff he is made of, and they will come upon us very soon.

Jun 20, 2009 - 10:04 pm 26. Lifeofthemind:

Anodyne,
These count as “courage” and “foresight” in some circles …

These are the same people who called firing the Inspector General “An act of political courage.”

I’d rather be governed by Danny Kaye.

Jun 20, 2009 - 10:09 pm 27. Tcobb:

These are the same people who called firing the Inspector General “An act of political courage.”
Yes–the “best and the brightest” don’t have a clue as to how fast to heat up the American Frog so as it won’t notice its being turned into soup. After all, if the heat goes up too fast it might jump out of the pot–and the American Taxpayer frog is venomous and can turn aggressive.

Jun 20, 2009 - 10:29 pm 28. ledger:

“I would give Assad a sharp solid rap and be making a lot of threatening noises towards southern Lebanon. Anything to keep the maximum number of Hez fighters in place and out of Iran. Knock the other guy off balance. –ambisinistral

That is a plan. But, as you have said Obama game is mumbling vague platitudes with no real force to back it up.

I believe that time is of the essence if any meaningful action is to be taken against Assad or Khamenei. Both are very close to their victims and out number them.

Jun 20, 2009 - 10:53 pm 29. Surind Raj:

(Linkback)
http://surind.blogspot.com/2009/06/tehran-univesity-students-abused-killed.html

Jun 21, 2009 - 12:53 am

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