51 Comments

1. sirius_sir:

“Pulled across the Rubicon” is an apt reference to Pres. Obama’s situation. It’s hard to imagine a scenario where he could sit down and “negotiate” with a regime that has lost, and is daily losing, so much legitimacy. Should the mullahcracy prevail, our President shouldn’t seek to lend it legitimacy by sacrificing his own.

It would seem obvious that regime change is the best hope for both the Iranians and the larger world going forward. But should that avenue be foreclosed, then “meddling” with the weapons program–not fruitless negotiation–would seem the next best option.

Jun 20, 2009 - 2:47 pm 2. heathermc:

Obama must believe that the mullahocracy is on its way out. Otherwise, he would continue to be silent.

Jun 20, 2009 - 2:51 pm 3. Mongoose:

heather: exactly. I wonder, did a check bounce or somethin’?

What a smarmy coward. What a miserable excuse for a man.

Jun 20, 2009 - 3:04 pm 4. Gringo:

Mongoose:
What a smarmy coward. What a miserable excuse for a man.

Perhaps it comes from a failure of the imagination on Obama’s part. Had he viewed the Mullahs the same way he viewed a Chicago primary opponent,he would have said much different things. The primary opponent and Obama wanted the same thing- easy to view as an enemy.A Chicago primary opponent- easy for Obama to consider an enemy, and act accordingly. The Mullahs have time and again demonstrated to us that they consider the US an enemy. But to Obama, the Mullahs are someone to charm. hopey hopey, changey changey. Obama does not consider the Mullahs an enemy because they do not personally threaten him the way a Chicago primary opponent did.

Jun 20, 2009 - 3:14 pm 5. wretchard:

The main thing right now is to win. Winning, I think, has several dimensions. The first and most important, I believe is to make sure that no external forces exploit the situation. Just because the US has estopped itself from “meddling” doesn’t mean nobody else will. In fact, I think it’s a safe bet that ideas are going through a lot of people’s minds right now. In a revolutionary situation, standing still is not an option. Fortune favors the bold. So role number 1 should be to keep the jackals at bay.

Second, win or lose the opposition will be a future force. So it is important to send clear international signals about what kind of regime the West will want to see emerge. It should not be a humiliating expectation. The normal behavior of nation states will do. The first thing the survivor of the fight in Iran will do is seek international recognition. Now that BHO has crossed the Rubicon, let him pitch his tent on the other side and clearly indicate who’s invited to the victory party and what the required attire is The time for being coy is over.

Third, there’s always the chance that nobody will win and that Iran will spiral downward into a mess. Now is the time to make contingency plans, not only for humanitarian intervention, but for events that can not as yet be fully forseen. Get a reserve together, even if you don’t know where it’s going to go.

These I think, are the minimum actions Obama should take now he’s across the river.

Jun 20, 2009 - 3:28 pm 6. hdgreene:

I wonder. If we had applied “The Doctrine of Unintended Consequences” to President Obama’s attempt to partner up with the Mullahs to seek a better world, might we have seen this coming? But who could have guessed that what the Democrats did for “Affordable Housing” (Rahm Emanuel and Barney Frank’s bursting bubble) and what they will do to National Health Care, would also happen to the Islamic Republic? As Obama closed for the kiss, could the Mullah’s have stumbled backwards, attempting to escape that cold embrace? Of course, it is to early to anticipate the fall of the Theocracy. Still, it would be ironic in “the obese guy on food stamps who is malnourished” sort of way, if it happened immediately after the State Department got its way.

And I know: crediting President Obama for any good outcome is like giving the rooster credit for daybreak. But face it, he’ll get it anyways. I was in Dunkin Donuts this morning and saw the crawl on the screen while the crowds threw rocks and waited on return fire: “Iranians demand change.” You know, the kind you can believe in. How do you say Si, se puede in Farsi?

Jun 20, 2009 - 3:37 pm 7. Mr. Frank:

Obama would have preferred to vote present for another week, but he was upstaged by the Congress and was beginning to look weak. By not delivering his statement in person, he missed the chance to look strong.

Jun 20, 2009 - 3:38 pm 8. Andy from San Jose:

Why would BHO not pursue negotiations with A-jad and the Mad Mullahs even now? He had no qualms about meeting A-jad without preconditions before; presuming the regime survives (and it likely will short of a vast, country-wide bloodbath) they’re the same thugs now as they were then.

I don’t think BHO sees the street protests as a “precondition”. The brave Iranian protesters are merely interfering with his ability to pursue his charisplomacy.

Jun 20, 2009 - 3:40 pm 9. wretchard:

And I know: crediting President Obama for any good outcome is like giving the rooster credit for daybreak. But face it, he’ll get it anyways.

The biggest “unintended consequence” and the one that I am most afraid of is the kind of signal President Obama’s behavior has been sending to the wolves. This game is by no means over. In the words of the late Karen Carpenter, “We’ve Only Just Begun”. Unlike the press, hard men inside Iran, Russia, Saudi Arabia and North Korea may draw the conclusion that Obama lacks the ability to run a serious risk; that he’s weak and a pushover. That may cause them to miscalculate or worse, win an opportunistic gambit.

You will remember that Kennedy’s perceived weakness during his Vienna Summit with Kruschchev may have led to the Cuban Missile crisis. When Kennedy finally had to stand, it was in the very shadow of Armageddon. As wrote in in #5, crossing the Rubicon is only the start. Once you are across you are obliged to win. If don’t intend to win, you should never have crossed. You can speak loudly and carry a small stick; you can even speak softly and carry a big stick. But you should never speak softly and imply that you have a small dick.

This will be especially true in the coming days when an ounce of deterrence will be worth a pound of reaction. Signals count in a crisis much more than they do before or afterward. And here is where the “Second Channel” is most important — the one that conveys ‘who you are’. A man with a reputation for character doesn’t have to be bellicose. A man with a reputation for weakness has to act more provocatively than otherwise to gain the same effect.

Jun 20, 2009 - 3:47 pm 10. Doug:

Obama – Iran’s Aspirations Are Legitimate

“Obama’s interview offered a preview of a speech he is to deliver in Egypt this week, saying he hoped the address would warm relations between Americans and Muslims abroad.

“What we want to do is open a dialogue,” Obama told the BBC. “You know, there are misapprehensions about the West, on the part of the Muslim world. And, obviously, there are some big misapprehensions about the Muslim world when it comes to those of us in the West.”

Obama leaves Tuesday evening on a trip to Egypt and Saudi Arabia aimed at reaching out to the world’s 1.5 billion Muslims. He is due to make his speech in Cairo on Thursday…

Asked what he would say during his visit about human rights abuses, including the detention of political prisoners in Egypt, Obama indicated no stern lecture would be forthcoming.

He said he hoped to deliver the message that democratic values are principles that “they can embrace and affirm.”

Obama added that there is a danger “when the United States, or any country, thinks that we can simply impose these values on another country with a different history and a different culture.”
—
BHO needs no verbal hedges, the MSM filter enables him to say one thing one minute, and the opposite the next, at no cost.

Jun 20, 2009 - 3:55 pm 11. Jamie Irons:

When I read an hour or two ago of Obama’s change of “heart” (ha ha), I immediately thought, “This means he thinks the mullahs are goners.” I agree with with heather mc (#2) and Mongoose (#3) above, but I interpret this in a slightly more positive way (hard to do with Obama, but I’ll give him a break).

We can presume that he has access to more information than we do (some of it good, much of it useless). He is not stupid. He always goes with the winning side (can anyone think of a counterexample?).

So I am encouraged that it now seems much more likely the mullahs and A-jad will fall (this of course does not necessarily augur an altogether favorable ultimate outcome for us) and also, maybe Obama is a little bit flexible, and might once in a while do the right thing almost in spite of himself.

Jamie Irons

Jun 20, 2009 - 3:56 pm 12. exhelodrvr:

Now would be a good time to take advantage of the issues in Iran and put pressure on Syria and their proxies.

Jun 20, 2009 - 4:01 pm 13. Jamie Irons:

Speaking of Obama’s access to “more information [than we plebians have],” I would ask those here more learned in intelligence matters, do the NSA or like agencies get satellite data that might show them the size of crowds in near real time, and the extent of unrest (if such is the case) in multiple Iranian cities and regions?

Jamie Irons

Jun 20, 2009 - 4:03 pm 14. Doug:

Jamie,
We plebes of little talent await your poem about your Senator and the General!

Jun 20, 2009 - 4:07 pm 15. Jamie Irons:

Doug,

Which senator?

For that matter, which general?!

(Obviously, I’ve been “away”…)

Jamie Irons

Jun 20, 2009 - 4:13 pm 16. PA Cat:

You can speak loudly and carry a small stick; you can even speak softly and carry a big stick. But you should never speak softly and imply that you have a small dick.

Meanwhile, our reluctant Caesar decides to make a photo op out of a trip for frozen custard:

“Twelve dark vehicles wound thru [sic] small side streets to the Del Ray section of Alexandria, Virginia, a suburb of Washington.

Liz Davis, owner of the frozen custard shop, said she had about 4 minutes of “lag time” between knowing she would have “a visitor” and the President walking in with his daughters. . . .

The president paid with cash and then sat down with his daughters to enjoy the treat. Through the big plate glass window he could be seen visiting with other customers, holding a few babies, and posing for pictures with them. . . .

The president was seen carrying a white bag to his car, which Liz Davis tells us contained frozen puppy pops for Bo, the first dog. Bo can expect to dine on pumpkin, and peanut butter and yogurt frozen treats tonight.

Frozen custard is a regional treat in Illinois and other mid-west states, thus the owner speculated that made her shop a nostalgic visit for the former Illinois senator.”

http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2009/06/fathers-day-for-the-obama-girls.html

Jun 20, 2009 - 4:14 pm 17. Doug:

Why, Babs, of course, Jamie!
Senator Evil

Jun 20, 2009 - 4:17 pm 18. Doug:

(Doctor Jamie, that is.

Jun 20, 2009 - 4:19 pm 19. Jamie Irons:

Doug,

That video was very funny!

(It has always been a disappointment to me that I didn’t get accepted at Evil Medical School!)

Jamie Irons

Jun 20, 2009 - 4:26 pm 20. Doug:

“I love that chick”

Jun 20, 2009 - 4:27 pm 21. Dave:

Initially, Obama wanted the enemies of America to win because he had grandiose plans to make historic deals with them.

Now he knows that that will not happen. So he is trying to find out with whom he can make grandiose historic deals.

The thought that such deal-making might simply not be possible lurks in his subconcious but he studiously ignores it.

No matter what happens next, the desire for grandiose deal-making with persist. Only thing he knows how to do.

BTW: Wretchard, did you mean to say “imply that you have a small dick” or was that (a) a typo, or (b) a Freudian slip? Either way, you managed to illuminate how our enemies are so often motivated.

Jun 20, 2009 - 4:27 pm 22. Dave:

Jamie Irons #13: Yes, those agencies have the ability to collect that information as you outlined.

Whether or not the machinery is in place and turned on is another question.

As is whether or not anybody pays any attention to said information.

WE can only hope for the best.

Jun 20, 2009 - 4:30 pm 23. rule 303:

Who cares nuke Iran NOW!!!!

Jun 20, 2009 - 4:43 pm 24. Machias Privateer:

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_d8MNWrkvLv0/Rctk_0et5KI/AAAAAAAAAAM/Z0lcI5GepdE/s1600-h/Foster+Rubicon+Enlargement.JPG

An American example for the Iranian people.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Machias

Jun 20, 2009 - 4:53 pm 25. NahnCee:

“…nobody will win and that Iran will spiral downward into a mess.”

Given the example of the collapse of Russia, if Iran spirals down into an internal mess doesn’t that mean that EVERYone else will win? How can an Iran distracted by internal politics pursue an atomic bomb, send terrorists into Iraq, or fund Syria or North Korean foolishness?

Jun 20, 2009 - 4:56 pm 26. rule 303:

It’s amazing, we are rooting for people who have killed American soldiers in Iraq. As far as I am concerned, the more dead Iranians the better…

Jun 20, 2009 - 4:56 pm 27. Doug:

GREEN LIGHT FOR A CRACKDOWN
-
And our president is “troubled,” but doesn’t believe we should “meddle” in Iran’s internal affairs. (Meddling in Israel’s domestic affairs is just fine, though.)

We just turned our backs on freedom.
Again.
Of all our foreign-policy failures in my lifetime, our current shunning of those demanding free elections and expanded civil rights in Iran reminds me most of Hungary in 1956.

For years, we encouraged the Hungarians to rise up against oppression. When they did, we watched from the sidelines as Russian tanks drove over them.

For decades, Washington policymakers from both parties have prodded Iranians to throw off their shackles. Last Friday, millions of Iranians stood up. And we’re standing down.

That isn’t diplomacy. It’s treachery.
-
Is his program of negotiations with apocalypse-minded, woman-hating, Jew-killing fanatics so sacrosanct that he can’t acknowledge human cries for freedom?

Jun 20, 2009 - 5:16 pm 28. hdgreene:

Doug, totally without permission, and being a unlicensed practitioner, I gave it a spin.

The Dance of a Thousand Unveiled Threats
(To be sung with “Castanets”)

There once was a Senator Called Ma’am,
Who decided to take a Stand:
“General, don’t use a respectful tone with me!
Like that High Patrol guy after I speed!
Because I’m a boxer, named Senator, you see!”
Then she screamed, in frustration,
Addressing the nation,
“I’m fighter named Boxer, who?”
Then she steamed and seem to compose her composure
Like a Politician walking on the tippy-tips of her toes-sure.
“What I’m trying to say, is
‘Shut up,’ but in the nicest possible way!
So allow me to proceed:
After years of hard scrabble,
And political dabble.
Without sounding stern,
The name that I’ve earned,
Is Senatorita Boxer, if you please.
You ingrate!”

Jun 20, 2009 - 5:36 pm 29. Doug:

Great!
I think a careful listen reveals the General reflexively almost saying “yes ma’am,” partially accounting for how “yes Senator” came out even more unnaturally than he, or we would have expected.
-
Another amazing moment in what has become of our Senate.

Jun 20, 2009 - 5:57 pm 30. Derek:

The opponents of the US now know how the President moves. He follows state department until events/reality/political pressure indicate otherwise. Opponents know what State thinks. I would think they tell them.

Derek

Jun 20, 2009 - 6:11 pm 31. M. Simon:

I have heard rumors in the last three to six months of top guys in Iran telling their wives “pack up your ermines”.

Right now it is a matter of nerve. The top guys appear to be losing theirs. However, that is all subject to change.

Don’t forget Iran is the home of the martyrs as America is home of the revolutionaries.

This is going to be hard to turn if the Regime tries now. They have let it go on too long.

Jun 20, 2009 - 6:31 pm 32. exhelodrvr:

Nahncee,
“Given the example of the collapse of Russia, if Iran spirals down into an internal mess doesn’t that mean that EVERYone else will win?”

Depends on what steps Russia and China might take to take advantage of the situation.

Jun 20, 2009 - 6:35 pm 33. RWE:

” …. he has finally torn up the draft agreements he had hoped to conclude with the Iranian regime simply because there is no one any longer to send them to…”

A little present from G.W.Bush, Mr. President. No matter how you try to spin it, everyone knows that our grand experiment in Iraq is paying some extra dividends.

Maybe it is too late to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, but if you work hard you can still win the war and lose the peace, as you people like to say.

His approach is like apologizing for the bombing of Hiroshima on the deck of the USS Missouri during the Japanese surrender ceremony. “What’s that you say, Barak? Couldn’t hear you when those 1500 B-29’s flew over.”

Jun 20, 2009 - 6:48 pm 34. herb:

Mr Fernandez at 9:”…crossing the Rubicon is only the start. Once you are across you are obliged to win. If don’t intend to win, you should never have crossed. You can speak loudly and carry a small stick; you can even speak softly and carry a big stick. But you should never speak softly and imply that you have a small dick.”

Absolutely true from an international to a personal level. Draw a line ans defend it. If you don’t you ain’t squat.

Commonplace book .. . ..

Jun 20, 2009 - 6:49 pm 35. Josh:

The problem is, nobody on the horizon is any better for the US, certainly not Mousavi.

Obama could issue some fairly safe statements suggesting much better relationships between the US and Iran with a democratically elected government – but that’s just what the mullahs are claiming they have – ironically enough, since so many mullahs say that voting is un-Islamic.

Perhaps the mullahs giving lip service to the ballot, was their first and greatest mistake. Will it be fatal? Oh, eventually, I suppose. But today?

Jun 20, 2009 - 7:03 pm 36. Josh:

wretchard #9: Unlike the press, hard men inside Iran, Russia, Saudi Arabia and North Korea may draw the conclusion that Obama lacks the ability to run a serious risk; that he’s weak and a pushover. That may cause them to miscalculate or worse, win an opportunistic gambit.

They needn’t think him weak or a pushover, just a fool and predictable.

If that’s a difference.

Jun 20, 2009 - 7:05 pm 37. Unsk:

I don’t think Buraq has crossed the Rubicon in his mind yet. He still wants his negotiations. His response today was the minimum acceptable to the American Public in his situation. It was mild and weak.

My gut tells me Buraq has a knee jerk fidelity to the Authoritarian side of Islam, probably a legacy from his childhood indoctrination. Sunni Islam brokers no freedom of thought. After all to a fundamentalist Sunni, the “Quietest” Shias are apostates, and the head cracking Authoritarian Regime in Tehran is more like the real Islam. Buraq’s Cairo speech defended the imposition of hijab on women, repeatedly called the Koran “holy”, talked of the “revealed’ truth of Islam and equated Moses, Jesus and Mohammad together as Prophets. No real Christian would say those things. Only a devout muslim, and one with no appreciation of the insult to freedom and Christianity.

Wretchard is right. The Freedom demonstrators must win at this point, or face a probable future hiding, in prison or dead. Nor can the Regime allow on the other hand the Green Revolutionaries to act out again, or the Regime control will erode. Krauthammer was correct that these demonstrations are now about more than the election returns, they are about freedom.

Whether the Regime has the full support of mullahs for a full bloody repression of dissent is an open question. According to Ledeen there are over 10,000 mullahs in Iran and they are not of one voice. Many follow the ‘quietest” Sistani or other Grand Ayatollahs, or have worked to be above politics and/or have even worked successfully through intermediaries with the Great Satan, America. America’s fight to allow the Shia to worship freely while at the same time vote democratically in Iraq ,probably serves as a model for many in the Green Revolution. If we had a true freedom loving President, there might be an opening for moving along Regime change.

But, I don’t think Buraq is really on the side of the freedom supporters. He clearly has shown he will not give the Green Revolution any help, if he can. He is too foolish to realize that the Green Revolutionaries are the only real trustworthy partner in negotiations he will ever get. That is if he really wants meaningful negotiations, and not just some sham peace agreement to humble America again.

Jun 20, 2009 - 7:15 pm 38. Leo Linbeck III:

The mullahs feared they’d soon be on trial
As the protesters got a lot more hostile

But Mahmood didn’t flinch
Though he seemed in a pinch

After all, his strong suit is denial.

— —

Is it Tienanmen Square or Manila?
Barack didn’t care one scintilla

While the protesters fell
He went out for a spell

With his girls for a cone of vanilla.

— —

At the Brigadier’s GI exam
He politely called Barbara ma’am

But the Senator’s snit
Made him after admit

That she worked hard to be God madame.

— —

L3

Jun 20, 2009 - 7:19 pm 39. An Iranian Opposition Ad « The View from Alexandria:

[...] A poem in a comment by Leo Linbeck III at the Belmont Club: Is it Tienanmen Square or Manila? Barack didn’t care one [...]

Jun 20, 2009 - 8:51 pm 40. joe buzz:

He is not across but midstream dog paddling on his leash while the water rises. When I watched the lifeblood flow from the brave young girl on the dirty street today, I was very ashamed of the inaction of the leader of the free world. Rest in peace young Persian girl.

Jun 20, 2009 - 9:24 pm 41. Highlander:

Re: 40

Amen. May it not have been in vain.

Jun 20, 2009 - 9:48 pm 42. Mongoose:

J. Irons. Actually I do think he is stupid, at least in the highest sense of how we talk about mind, but he has the instinct and acumen of the severe narcissist.

And he does not go for the ultimate winning side, he will choose factions that will buy into his narcissism and give him the adulation he craves, his only scruples are to weigh the gullibility against the power of the faction he might sides with at any moment. He would be trying to seduce his own destroyer has he rounded on him.

Wretchard, to me you constantly appear not to to take the full measure of Obama.

Has it ever occurred to you that he is on the payroll of these monsters who you fear are getting the wrong message? Barring that, are you sure that this is not just the message he wants to send?

Obama means to have the end of us, one way or another.

We have placed a insane viper of a man over us.

Jun 20, 2009 - 10:26 pm 43. Barry 0351:

Iranian citizens need arms. Obama gives them words.

Jun 21, 2009 - 4:50 am 44. Boghie:

I am rather worried…

President Obama is learning his high school history lessons while President of the United States of America.

He is ignorant of reality, and thus frozen in time and space. He is ignorant of accepted history, thus he has no scholarship to base moves upon. His history is a history created by fad and desires.

The difference between stupid and ignorance is that stupid means you do not know the topic, admit it. and hopefully rectify it; ignorance means that you think you are well informed and move on your stupidity like a bull in a china shop.

Regardless, Iran is a test of Theocracy, it is also a test for Obama.

I don’t think he studied for it.

Jun 21, 2009 - 10:54 am 45. NahnCee:

“Iranian citizens need arms.”

* * *

IF the thugs are using axes, sticks and knives, surely Iranian citizens also have access to those things. And there has to be hell of a lot more pissed-off citizens than there are thugs.

(The equation of the Holocaust that is always mind-blowing is 6 million dead Jews, killed off by how many hundred Nazi’s.)

Jun 21, 2009 - 11:38 am 46. Mad Fiddler:

It is of course insane to criticize an elected representative for honoring the religion he has chosen as he takes on the responsibilities of his office. But it is not insane to expect that representative, once having sworn to uphold the Constitution and do his office for the people that he represents, to damn well show where he stands and not just vote present like other cowardly pukes we might mention.

Jun 21, 2009 - 1:08 pm 47. buckets:

303 @ 26,

Agreed, many of the opposition probably have played large roles in Iranian events in the last decade – nuke development, Hez and Hamas, killing Americans in Iraq, etc.

But the enemy of my enemy is my friend; and at some point, we must be able to turn former enemies into allies. See the U.S. Civil War and Iraq’s Sunni insurgents.

Any crack in the dam of “Death to America” and “Wipe Israel off the map” has to be welcomed, though perhaps with semi-open arms. History is replete with men of ill repute who were able to change their spots in the midst of crisis (see Han Solo in Star Wars). Mousavi has defied Khameini; just for that, I’ll give the bastard the benefit of the doubt for a while.

Jun 21, 2009 - 8:12 pm 48. NahnCee:

I’m not convinced that in overthrowing the mullahs, the Persians at the same time will give up their Jew-hatred and/or their nuclear aspirations.

Jun 21, 2009 - 10:28 pm 49. Pseudo-Polymath » Blog Archive » Monday Highlights:

[...] All “neo-cons”, whatever a neo-con is … on that I have no clear notion. The significant holdout waffles. [...]

Jun 22, 2009 - 7:16 am 50. Stones Cry Out - If they keep silent… » Things Heard: e73v1:

[...] All “neo-cons”, whatever a neo-con is … on that I have no clear notion. The significant holdout waffles. [...]

Jun 22, 2009 - 7:18 am 51. Steynian 366 « Free Canuckistan!:

[...] DRAGGED ACROSS A RUBICON– “Fox News reports that President Obama has finally called on the Iranian government to [...]

Jun 22, 2009 - 4:08 pm

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