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Either that, or put 5 million people in the streets of Tehran.
Unlikely. This will end badly for many Iranians, and the true nature of those that run Iran will once again be revealed. Why, just today I saw Steve Ricks on C-Span talking about how nice the Iranians are. Why, they’re just like us!
Axis of Evil? Come, let us dialogue together. All will be forgotten.
I don’t know what is worse; the brutes who perpetrate this or the ninnies who paper it over so they can do business with the Iranians tomorrow. I hope Steve can go back to Iran real soon on the PBS nickel and tell us once more what a swell place it is.
Every successful revolution starts when the troops will not fire on their own people. That was true in France in 1789 and in Russia in 1917. Trotsky has a moving passage describing how the people crawled under the bellies of the Cossack’s horses to get to the demonstration at one point and the soldiers did not fire. At that moment the Old Regime was finished. Our host has noted this happened also in the Philippines. In China in 1989 the people of Beijing co-opted the local military units and the CCP brought in the Mongols and other provincials to clean our Tien an Men Square. The Iranians are now students and possibly clients of China. They have brought in the out of town bully boys from the sticks. Will this work over time or will the military units break and defend the people? Partly this is complicated by the fissures within the regime. It is true that all the leading figures, Mousavi, Rafsanjani, Khameni and Ahmadinejehad are tied to the legacy of Khomeneism. That does not mean that we should not assist as possible in the development of a revolutionary space. The concrete has to crack before a flower can grow. Charles II’s entrance into London was made past the serried ranks of General Monck’s troops from Parliament’s New Model Army.
A:
Order one of your thugs to pick a hapless person, somebody doing nothing, say standing at the side of the road, innocent. Best if it’s a girl, especially a beautiful girl with her full life ahead of her. Pick a Westernised one, just to complete the message. Organise to have lots of cameras around.
Then shoot her.
Now the populace will respect you, coz you’ve shown you’re a big man.
One of the implications for this idea of bringing in ‘thugs from the sticks’ in terms of our own domestic politics has not been discussed at all.
A couple of weeks ago, NPR had an Iranian on who compared the voters for Ahmadinajad to American conservatives and rural devout Christians in the U.S. Few said anything, but Rush Limbaugh (of all people) picked up on this and was content to simply ridicule the notion. Of course the idea should be ridiculed – there is no meaningful connection between these groups, is there? Ah, but you would be wrong about that.
That Saturday night, I was at a friend’s home for a graduation party. A couple of Obama worshipping NPR leftist public school teachers were parroting, line for line, what the Iranian had said on NPR earlier that week.
In what had to have been a carefully crafted way, our taxpayer funded leftist propaganda radio network had made certain to get on the air this Iranian with this particular statement to make, giving permission to these two teachers(and in all likelihood millions of other people) to conflate the goons in Iran with the Republicans in their town and with the Baptist family who lives next door.
This idea – that hardcore Islamicists in Iran are the same as conservative Americans, particularly those who are devoutly Christian – is, of course, eagerly consumed by the American left. It is already part of the core of the narrative of the left that conservatives living on their street are the greatest evil possible in the universe. Since it fits the narrative template of the left regarding the unassailable evil of conservatism, and since the information that supports this desired conflation was recieved from NPR, well, then, it must be true.
The end result is that if the goons of Ahmadinajad win, in the minds of Obama supporters, it will have been the fault of people just like conservatives and Christians here in the U.S. And if the other side wins, it will be because of their beloved Obama’s speech in Cairo, and will represent people like themselves triumphing over goons who are really not different in any way from those awful gun toting, Bible owning, NASCAR watching subhumans that live in their own town.
If the center/right/libertarian part of America is to overcome the left, they will need not only to be able to counteract this sort of media campaign, but get the public to understand the evil of this sort of blood libel so that this tactic cannot be used going forward. A few yuks from Rush are useful but not enough.
Or, put more simply, NPR was giving their listeners permission to morph the Iranian goons into American conservatives, in order to maintain in its intact form the narrative that the white Christian capitalist conservative is the greatest evil possible in the universe.
ADE,
Once upon a time an English School Master established his control over the classroom by summoning the least offensive boy in the room to the front. He would then thrash the child with a cane before the other students.
The amazing thing is that it is the Mullahs that most resemble the Left, and it is they that are in the arms of the Russians and the Communist Chinese.
Substitute Marx for Mohammad and there is not that much difference between the two.
And you are right, we have to fight this meme tooth and nail.
Not that we shouldn’t fight NPR/ABC/NYT propaganda tooth and nail, but let’s not overestimate how big a force they represent. Your teacher friends, no mo, make up 21 % of the population.
The old line that makes the Planned Parenthoods, Acorns, gay marriage supporters of the world the good guys and the backers of American exceptionalism and traditional mores the dangerous ones is falling apart with every new, impotent TOTUS speech. It’s hard to hold up the argument that taking over the banks and auto industry somehow puts you on the side of the demonstrators in Iran, especially when you seem not to have that much sympathy for them.
The steering mechanism of the country has been taken over by pantywaists and leprechauns who are, thankfully, not seeming to fool much of anyone anymore. I’m going to have to see less cluelessness and more success from these morons before I again get as worried as I was a few weeks back.
The game’s not won, but I’m beginning to like our chances. As has been said elsewhere, the fantasy that was BDS and its flip-side, ObamaMessiahnism, are starting to crack as reality assaults them. With any luck at all, the crumbling will begin soon.
Interesting article in the link above. Bush’s transformation of Iraq has set off a reformist earthquake in the religions of Shiite Islam. According to this article, it’s a theological battle between two Grand Ayatollahs– the dictatorial bad Grand Ayatollah Khamenei from Iran (who cheats in elections, holds other clerics such as Montazeri prisoner, and kills people) and the inclusive better Grand Ayatollah al-Sistani from Iraq who suppports rule by the people, public servancy, and Sunni/Shiite reconciliation.
If this article is correct, then some grad student can write the following bold thesis:
Chimpy” GW Bush planted a democracy in the middle of the autocracies. The new freedom allowed reformist Islamic clerics formerly held prisoner to introduce new ideas to the autocratic region and attempt change it slowly from within. The Gordian Knot is now unraveling in slow motion. It may take 30 years and tons of bloodshed for a new shape to emerge, but the genie is out of the bottle and changing the region in unpredictable ways. Events in Lebanon, Iran, Iraq, and any place with Shiites are influenced by this invisible current.
From the article:
“What exists is a deep rivalry between the revolutionary Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khameini (including his evil minion Ahma-di-nutjob) and the traditionalist Grand Ayatollah Sistani (of Iraq), both claiming authority over the Shi’a faith.”
“Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani in 2007 made two very critical statements: that ‘I am a servant of all Iraqis, there is no difference between a Sunni, a Shiite or a Kurd or a Christian,’ and that Islam can exist within a democracy without theological conflict. You will never hear such words slip past the lips of Iran’s Ayatollah Khamenei. Ever.”
While the Khomeinist revolutionary Khameini clearly believes in Shi’a theocracy, the Iraqi Ayatollah Sistani (and other clerics such as Iranian Rasfanjani) believes that the faith can exist within a democracy without theological conflict.”
“Many Iranian merchants have been sending their 20% tithes to Sistani (of Iraq), not Khamenei (Supreme leader of Iran). Since at least 2007.”
Only hindsight, generations from now, will reveal whether or how the American intervention changed Islam.
The idea is that in calling for president Obama to get more involved in the situation in Iran, the “Neocon’s” were seeking a confrontation with the government of Iran and that they would use the Iranian Opposition movement to launch such a ill conceived request, potentially undermining the legitimacy of the movement in the eyes of other Iranians is an area where confusion about our Iranian policy is most irritating.
What I do not get from the administration is a clear idea of what their expectations are? Which leads to speculation and absurd notions all around. What good comes of trashing the presidents every word if no constructive alternative is offered.
What is at issue has changed in Iran, it is no longer about the elections. And the name of the young girl who was shot may well be the motivation for continued opposition of the Iranian Government. The admission of voter fraud in 50 cities by the Iranian Government is interesting, the offer to recount too little, and all of it too late. The Iranian people are not seeking a recount or a “reset”. There are many of them ready to tear the current system down and start anew.
If the president had called for new elections and definite actions on the part of the government last week, would he be considered weaken today? If the president had caused a backlash of support for the Ayatollah by the Iranian people by over zealously defending the opposition would he be any less a fool?
I do like the notion of giving the Iranian unimpeded access to all the rope required to hang themselves. Making it about “us” does little but play into Khamenei’s hands, and into the hands of folks who would equate religious folks in this country with the Islamic extremists of Iran and the Taliban.
This WSJ article reports that all of the Iranian terrestrial internet traffic routs through one regime controlled checkpoint. Also that the regime has the technology to do “deep packet inspection” level monitoring of traffic.
This likely explains why initially many students were targeted and would provide additional targets for home invasion and extraction when the ever present camera phones are blind.
Obama speaking out against the mad mullas and their thus would constitute embracing the Bush Doctrine of pre-emption. After all,
the whole purpose of speaking out is not really to make the mullahs be nicer to their own people but to alter the trajectory of the government of Iran so to obviate our future need to nuke them down to the bedrock.
And the nuking them part ain’t gonna happen on Obama’s watch, because he won’t do it.
And if all this great solar and wind power and elimination or personally owned conveyances in the USA happens then he can throw the whole Middle East under the bus and it won’t matter. If this utopian future does not happen then Obama ain’t gonna be around anyway.
This goes back to what Peggy Noonan said about John Kerry: “He would surround himself with smart people and study everything very carefully and then conclude what needed to be done would be what the Republicans would do, and since they could not do that they would do nothing.”
So it is all simply about not acting like a Republican.
On the rural vs. city debate, this article talks about the 2005 election and shows that Ahmadinejad support was higher in the cities in that election.
While that appears to have changed (but only with a slight tilt toward the rural areas) in this election, it appears to be more evidence of a mass effort to steal the election.
I believe Wretchard and others have made the point that by not sharply criticizing the rigged election and following brutality, that Buraq Hussein has given the Iranian Regime “permission” to crack heads and murder innocents. What Buraq did not say is code for ” go right ahead- brutality suppress this uprising, we will look the other way”.
Ed at Hot Air is asserting that the Regime is relying more and more on the Revolutionary Guards to the extent that the Regime will resemble more a military dictatorship and less a theocracy from here on. His thinking is that the more liberal mullahs, the followers of Sistani and other Grand Ayatollahs, will be pushed aside. In any case, we are more likely to see a “hardened” regime that is far less open to criticism or negotiations, and far more encouraged to take further aggressions as a result of Buraq’s foolishly weak response. Buraq has effectively given the Regime the “green light” for more thuggery.
I remember when NPR blacklisted Stephen Emerson for daring to rebut their favorite guest, Edward Said, on the air. That was early on in the post-911 permutations, ’round ‘02 as I recall.
Emerson’s focus on domestic expressions of Nasserite movements concealed in America’s own patriated mosque culture makes his analysis immune to Said’s reflexive “Orientalist” slander-which relies too heavily on the rote disqualification of any detached, non-Arab critique of Middle Eastern affairs.
Apparently, this was too much for NPR’s Boston producers to bear.
Now, although Said has slipped off NPR’s list of favored contributors, Princeton’s paid Duranty has been replaced by a series of ideological stand-ins…..
The anti-American proxy-project rolls on without a hic or a stumble…and the daring Mr. Emerson is still blacklisted.
“in order to maintain in its intact form the narrative that the white Christian capitalist conservative is the greatest evil possible in the universe.”
Well, in order to truly be the GREATEST evil, your statement is incomplete. You forgot heterosexual and male.
Also, not speaking Farsi, this video doesn’t really resemble a home invasion to me so much as just screaming in the dark.
I saw/heard something like this on a daily basis when I worked as a commissioner in a Boy Scout camp and I would walk into a troop’s campsite to get them to settle down when it was after midnight and they were running around making a lot of noise. Though, I guess the screams then were a little less urgent (most of the time).
I’m left with the conclusion that if this video is what it is purported to be, then I lived through things similar to a Middle East revolution (minus the automatic weapons and RPGs) on a weekly basis for 6 summers through high school and college. Hm. I’m more of a bad ass than I thought I was.
The point about using outside forces to control the cities does not imply that the majority of the rural population supports the regime. What is important is to ensure the reliability of the force used to suppress the people. To do that they must be drawn from another community. They must be Others. This Otherness can be achieved through various means. For a small elite a rigorous program of indoctrination can sever the bonds between a cadre and the community they become a parasite on. In Eastern Europe they had the institution of the Barracks Police. The defining characteristic of which was that they were recruited from social rejects. The Chinese move military units around and replaced the local forces when they proved unreliable in 1989. In ancient Athens the town was patrolled by Scythian archers.
It is more than rare that evil presents itself nakedly to the eyes of men. No, evil will always seek to hide itself, be it under the cover of darkness, in a lie or behind a wall of silence. Always evil hides. It does so because it knows itself to be what it is: evil. It knows that if its nature were revealed all would recoil from it and it would have no power.
The value of the American Presidency in international affairs derives in no small measure from its power to adumbrate evil deeds in shadow, and so rob them of the tacit legitimacy that silence confers. Mr. Obama’s initial silence followed by a muted “Tut, tut, my good man!” speaks to, at best his own moral ambiguity, or more frankly, to his own predisposition to befriend the darkness.
By the way, there’s going to be a Tea Party Tax Protest / Independence Day Celebration on July 3rd from 3 to 7 pm in La Canada, details here. Admission $10 cash includes hot dogs, hamburgers, drinks and oodles of entertainment including AlfonZo Rachel and other personages of brilliance and renown.
What Buraq did not say is code for ” go right ahead- brutality suppress this uprising, we will look the other way”.
No, Buraq Hussein’s code was
” go right ahead – brutally suppress the peasant uprising – finish this little unpleasantness, and we will sit down with you without conditions afterwards”
This is that “robust dialogue” that President Obama refers to?
Well, his only claim to fame was his demand for immediate surrender to Al Qaeda in Iraq when the war was at its nadir. This is what the Democrats voted for, weakness, dishonor, abandonment of American principles. And we got it.
Ps. Is Belmont Club suffering DDOS or some other attack? Posting is iffy.
Interesting. I brilliantly pointed out some time back on this very site that our mission in Iraq could have that very effect.
Shia believe that the leader of Islam should descend from Mohhammed. Sunni believe that the leader of Islam should be chosen by the people (i.e., up to now the guy they are afraid of the most).
In Iraq we have had Sunni voting democratically for a Shia leader. And Shia voting for a leader as well. And in Islam religion and national identity tend to get mixed.
If that does not shake Islam to its core on both sides of the schism then nothing will.
You can’t expect the O to talk smack about Middle Eastern strongmen in Iran. He wants to be a Middle Eastern strongman, only of a very domestic, Leftist sort (same ideas, better clothes).
Just as he did the soul-brother hand jive with the disgusting Ugly Chavez, he would do precisely the same with the Mullahs. Wolves can smell each other from across the room. O’s problem is that he’s not yet the Alpha Male in the wolf pack, so he’s got to roll over and show his belly to the big boys. Don’t think he’s not watching and learning.
The brutality of the Iranian government is not new. Of course it’s brutal. The Iranian government prides itself on gratuitous violence. The only new aspect of this video is that someone had the nerve to send it to CNN.
I don’t trust the provenance of CNN’s report, so cannot put much faith in its credibility. That said, I see wishful and western thinking in far too many of these comments. We are speaking of a Byzantine world viewed through several “veils”, not all of whose wearers would like us to be able to comprehend these events.
One person’s youthful freedom fighters could easily be another’s decedent, self-destructive generation. We could all abhor the bloodshed while still differing on the desired outcome. As for me, I believe their nation is imploding – and has a long road to travel before the dust settles enough for westerners to “see through the veil”.
I guess everything political has always been “in the presentation” but somehow more and more reality itself is stripping away all the paint and decorations and the just-so lighting effects –and leaving a thing standing there that is promising to not let anybody anywhere hide anyplace anymore.
Surprised to see no mention of the right to bear arms in connection with this event. These sorts of ideological militia raids are immensely more costly when the citizenry is armed. From start to finish they are aimed at terrorizing the victims. There are more efficient ways to kill and silence targeted individuals, but these raids were/are as much about the neighbors seeing and hearing the unexpected violence for betrayal of the “revolutioinary” principles on which the mullahcracy is based. With an armed citizenry, the reaction would be precisely the opposite: the neighbors see and hear what is happening, and decide no F-ing way are these bastards gonna get away with this again and get together to make sure they pay a price, having seen what happens when you don’t fight back. Just having that right makes state-sponsored terrorism a conclusion that just doesn’t follow, since then violence doesn’t = terror but provocation.
Mick: It was mentioned in a previous Wretchard post by a commenter. But, yes a nation such as Iran removed all rights when the revolution of 79 ended. It was only through decree that an individual had any rights at all.
As for using out of town thugs to suppress and interdict rioters. Just look at your own backyard. When you drive around notice the number of police and sheriff vehicles in driveways that are not of your jurisdiction… And if you ask about it the story line is we don’t want the drug dealers to be able to find the officer’s home. Seems plausible and most let it go.
But within the time frame of 9-11 to today. We now have DHS and it’s attendant coordination powers. What you will see if you are on the road selling or service tech working. Those that drive the public highways and streets daily. You will notice out of jurisdiction LEOs working traffic stops and such with local PD. Normally a sworn officer is only sworn for his local jurisdiction. But those rules have changed due to DHS consideration. Think Katrina.
JF, the Shah’s DHS impressed me more. Walking through the modern, crowded downtown boulevards of Teheran in ‘77, not long before President Carter pulled out the Shah and welcomed in the Ayatollah, I heard a beloved rumble build behind us. A flight of 4 Phantoms, tight patrol formation, thundered over at about 500 feet, leaving oily black smoketrails for us to ponder as our clothing shuddered in their back blast watching them mercifully move on.
Strange cops on the corner are scary, 4 Phantoms at 500 feet, peace-inducing.
Unsk, I appreciate the position and the reason it was made. I just strongly disagree.
Look at what has happened since I posted that comment this morning. On good authority we have it that the Ayatollah has gone into seclusion, hiding if you will, in fear for his own safety. The leader of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards is under arrest for refusing to order his men to suppress the demonstrators. Now how much of this is possible because we did not get on the television and tell the Iranian Government that the United States Government would Officially take it as a personal insult if they got violent toward demonstrators in Tehran or any other Iranian city. I think by not inserting the Official policy of the United States into the mix, the people of Iran were left with a clear understanding that this was not our doing, but rather the making of their own Government. The people in Iran do not trust us, they have been taught not to trust us, and have only recently been able to see the United States through the lens of Post Saddam Iraq instead of Jimmy Carter’s veil of tears.
They are not stupid, they know that twitter was supposed to go down for maintenance, and they know American citizens and especially American students are pulling for them to win their freedom. How could they not?
No I don’t agree that Obama gave anyone permission to harm anyone else by not giving any one a reason to do harm. I find the sort of dialogue that follows such a lines of rational to be somewhat less than reasonable. It is the same stuff that says we gave Saddam the green light to invade Kuwait, because we did not say he couldn’t. Something about disproving a negative.
Jun 22, 2009 - 6:38 pm
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40 Comments
1. elby:Chilling.
My heart goes out to those families who have lost loved ones. May the death of Neda not be in vain.
Jun 21, 2009 - 8:51 pm 2. blogstrop:For a successful overthrow you need the thug militias and the army to stay out of it, unless you have an army of your own.
Jun 21, 2009 - 9:46 pm 3. E. Nigma:Either that, or put 5 million people in the streets of Tehran.
Unlikely. This will end badly for many Iranians, and the true nature of those that run Iran will once again be revealed. Why, just today I saw Steve Ricks on C-Span talking about how nice the Iranians are. Why, they’re just like us!
Axis of Evil? Come, let us dialogue together. All will be forgotten.
I don’t know what is worse; the brutes who perpetrate this or the ninnies who paper it over so they can do business with the Iranians tomorrow. I hope Steve can go back to Iran real soon on the PBS nickel and tell us once more what a swell place it is.
Jun 21, 2009 - 9:55 pm 4. Lifeofthemind:Every successful revolution starts when the troops will not fire on their own people. That was true in France in 1789 and in Russia in 1917. Trotsky has a moving passage describing how the people crawled under the bellies of the Cossack’s horses to get to the demonstration at one point and the soldiers did not fire. At that moment the Old Regime was finished. Our host has noted this happened also in the Philippines. In China in 1989 the people of Beijing co-opted the local military units and the CCP brought in the Mongols and other provincials to clean our Tien an Men Square. The Iranians are now students and possibly clients of China. They have brought in the out of town bully boys from the sticks. Will this work over time or will the military units break and defend the people? Partly this is complicated by the fissures within the regime. It is true that all the leading figures, Mousavi, Rafsanjani, Khameni and Ahmadinejehad are tied to the legacy of Khomeneism. That does not mean that we should not assist as possible in the development of a revolutionary space. The concrete has to crack before a flower can grow. Charles II’s entrance into London was made past the serried ranks of General Monck’s troops from Parliament’s New Model Army.
Jun 21, 2009 - 11:06 pm 5. ADE:Q:
How does a Middle Eastern despot get respect?
A:
Order one of your thugs to pick a hapless person, somebody doing nothing, say standing at the side of the road, innocent. Best if it’s a girl, especially a beautiful girl with her full life ahead of her. Pick a Westernised one, just to complete the message. Organise to have lots of cameras around.
Then shoot her.
Now the populace will respect you, coz you’ve shown you’re a big man.
ADE
Jun 22, 2009 - 12:37 am 6. blogstrop:Basij might as well be farsi for bastard.
Jun 22, 2009 - 3:28 am 7. no mo uro:One of the implications for this idea of bringing in ‘thugs from the sticks’ in terms of our own domestic politics has not been discussed at all.
A couple of weeks ago, NPR had an Iranian on who compared the voters for Ahmadinajad to American conservatives and rural devout Christians in the U.S. Few said anything, but Rush Limbaugh (of all people) picked up on this and was content to simply ridicule the notion. Of course the idea should be ridiculed – there is no meaningful connection between these groups, is there? Ah, but you would be wrong about that.
That Saturday night, I was at a friend’s home for a graduation party. A couple of Obama worshipping NPR leftist public school teachers were parroting, line for line, what the Iranian had said on NPR earlier that week.
In what had to have been a carefully crafted way, our taxpayer funded leftist propaganda radio network had made certain to get on the air this Iranian with this particular statement to make, giving permission to these two teachers(and in all likelihood millions of other people) to conflate the goons in Iran with the Republicans in their town and with the Baptist family who lives next door.
This idea – that hardcore Islamicists in Iran are the same as conservative Americans, particularly those who are devoutly Christian – is, of course, eagerly consumed by the American left. It is already part of the core of the narrative of the left that conservatives living on their street are the greatest evil possible in the universe. Since it fits the narrative template of the left regarding the unassailable evil of conservatism, and since the information that supports this desired conflation was recieved from NPR, well, then, it must be true.
The end result is that if the goons of Ahmadinajad win, in the minds of Obama supporters, it will have been the fault of people just like conservatives and Christians here in the U.S. And if the other side wins, it will be because of their beloved Obama’s speech in Cairo, and will represent people like themselves triumphing over goons who are really not different in any way from those awful gun toting, Bible owning, NASCAR watching subhumans that live in their own town.
If the center/right/libertarian part of America is to overcome the left, they will need not only to be able to counteract this sort of media campaign, but get the public to understand the evil of this sort of blood libel so that this tactic cannot be used going forward. A few yuks from Rush are useful but not enough.
Jun 22, 2009 - 3:49 am 8. no mo uro:Or, put more simply, NPR was giving their listeners permission to morph the Iranian goons into American conservatives, in order to maintain in its intact form the narrative that the white Christian capitalist conservative is the greatest evil possible in the universe.
Jun 22, 2009 - 4:02 am 9. Lifeofthemind:ADE,
Jun 22, 2009 - 4:57 am 10. Mongoose:Once upon a time an English School Master established his control over the classroom by summoning the least offensive boy in the room to the front. He would then thrash the child with a cane before the other students.
no mo uro: I have been hearing a lot of that too.
The amazing thing is that it is the Mullahs that most resemble the Left, and it is they that are in the arms of the Russians and the Communist Chinese.
Substitute Marx for Mohammad and there is not that much difference between the two.
And you are right, we have to fight this meme tooth and nail.
Jun 22, 2009 - 5:48 am 11. maineman:Not that we shouldn’t fight NPR/ABC/NYT propaganda tooth and nail, but let’s not overestimate how big a force they represent. Your teacher friends, no mo, make up 21 % of the population.
The old line that makes the Planned Parenthoods, Acorns, gay marriage supporters of the world the good guys and the backers of American exceptionalism and traditional mores the dangerous ones is falling apart with every new, impotent TOTUS speech. It’s hard to hold up the argument that taking over the banks and auto industry somehow puts you on the side of the demonstrators in Iran, especially when you seem not to have that much sympathy for them.
The steering mechanism of the country has been taken over by pantywaists and leprechauns who are, thankfully, not seeming to fool much of anyone anymore. I’m going to have to see less cluelessness and more success from these morons before I again get as worried as I was a few weeks back.
The game’s not won, but I’m beginning to like our chances. As has been said elsewhere, the fantasy that was BDS and its flip-side, ObamaMessiahnism, are starting to crack as reality assaults them. With any luck at all, the crumbling will begin soon.
Jun 22, 2009 - 6:17 am 12. Dave the Kapampangan:http://threatswatch.org/rapidrecon/2009/06/regime-change-iran-movement-se/
An invisible current.
Interesting article in the link above. Bush’s transformation of Iraq has set off a reformist earthquake in the religions of Shiite Islam. According to this article, it’s a theological battle between two Grand Ayatollahs– the dictatorial bad Grand Ayatollah Khamenei from Iran (who cheats in elections, holds other clerics such as Montazeri prisoner, and kills people) and the inclusive better Grand Ayatollah al-Sistani from Iraq who suppports rule by the people, public servancy, and Sunni/Shiite reconciliation.
If this article is correct, then some grad student can write the following bold thesis:
Chimpy” GW Bush planted a democracy in the middle of the autocracies. The new freedom allowed reformist Islamic clerics formerly held prisoner to introduce new ideas to the autocratic region and attempt change it slowly from within. The Gordian Knot is now unraveling in slow motion. It may take 30 years and tons of bloodshed for a new shape to emerge, but the genie is out of the bottle and changing the region in unpredictable ways. Events in Lebanon, Iran, Iraq, and any place with Shiites are influenced by this invisible current.
From the article:
“What exists is a deep rivalry between the revolutionary Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khameini (including his evil minion Ahma-di-nutjob) and the traditionalist Grand Ayatollah Sistani (of Iraq), both claiming authority over the Shi’a faith.”
“Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani in 2007 made two very critical statements: that ‘I am a servant of all Iraqis, there is no difference between a Sunni, a Shiite or a Kurd or a Christian,’ and that Islam can exist within a democracy without theological conflict. You will never hear such words slip past the lips of Iran’s Ayatollah Khamenei. Ever.”
While the Khomeinist revolutionary Khameini clearly believes in Shi’a theocracy, the Iraqi Ayatollah Sistani (and other clerics such as Iranian Rasfanjani) believes that the faith can exist within a democracy without theological conflict.”
“Many Iranian merchants have been sending their 20% tithes to Sistani (of Iraq), not Khamenei (Supreme leader of Iran). Since at least 2007.”
Only hindsight, generations from now, will reveal whether or how the American intervention changed Islam.
Jun 22, 2009 - 6:20 am 13. Wadeusaf:The idea is that in calling for president Obama to get more involved in the situation in Iran, the “Neocon’s” were seeking a confrontation with the government of Iran and that they would use the Iranian Opposition movement to launch such a ill conceived request, potentially undermining the legitimacy of the movement in the eyes of other Iranians is an area where confusion about our Iranian policy is most irritating.
What I do not get from the administration is a clear idea of what their expectations are? Which leads to speculation and absurd notions all around. What good comes of trashing the presidents every word if no constructive alternative is offered.
What is at issue has changed in Iran, it is no longer about the elections. And the name of the young girl who was shot may well be the motivation for continued opposition of the Iranian Government. The admission of voter fraud in 50 cities by the Iranian Government is interesting, the offer to recount too little, and all of it too late. The Iranian people are not seeking a recount or a “reset”. There are many of them ready to tear the current system down and start anew.
If the president had called for new elections and definite actions on the part of the government last week, would he be considered weaken today? If the president had caused a backlash of support for the Ayatollah by the Iranian people by over zealously defending the opposition would he be any less a fool?
I do like the notion of giving the Iranian unimpeded access to all the rope required to hang themselves. Making it about “us” does little but play into Khamenei’s hands, and into the hands of folks who would equate religious folks in this country with the Islamic extremists of Iran and the Taliban.
Jun 22, 2009 - 6:27 am 14. exhelodrvr:If only Israel would give the Palestinians a country, none of this would be happening.
Jun 22, 2009 - 6:29 am 15. Jamie Irons:no mo uro (#7):
Excellent comment.
maineman (#11):
I pray that you’re right.
Jamie Irons
Jun 22, 2009 - 6:29 am 16. joe buzz:This WSJ article reports that all of the Iranian terrestrial internet traffic routs through one regime controlled checkpoint. Also that the regime has the technology to do “deep packet inspection” level monitoring of traffic.
Jun 22, 2009 - 6:33 am 17. RWE:This likely explains why initially many students were targeted and would provide additional targets for home invasion and extraction when the ever present camera phones are blind.
I just figured something out.
Obama speaking out against the mad mullas and their thus would constitute embracing the Bush Doctrine of pre-emption. After all,
the whole purpose of speaking out is not really to make the mullahs be nicer to their own people but to alter the trajectory of the government of Iran so to obviate our future need to nuke them down to the bedrock.
And the nuking them part ain’t gonna happen on Obama’s watch, because he won’t do it.
And if all this great solar and wind power and elimination or personally owned conveyances in the USA happens then he can throw the whole Middle East under the bus and it won’t matter. If this utopian future does not happen then Obama ain’t gonna be around anyway.
This goes back to what Peggy Noonan said about John Kerry: “He would surround himself with smart people and study everything very carefully and then conclude what needed to be done would be what the Republicans would do, and since they could not do that they would do nothing.”
So it is all simply about not acting like a Republican.
Makes perfect sense.
Jun 22, 2009 - 7:30 am 18. AWH:On the rural vs. city debate, this article talks about the 2005 election and shows that Ahmadinejad support was higher in the cities in that election.
While that appears to have changed (but only with a slight tilt toward the rural areas) in this election, it appears to be more evidence of a mass effort to steal the election.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/06/ahmadinejads-rural-votes.html
Jun 22, 2009 - 7:46 am 19. Unsk:Wadeusaf-
I believe Wretchard and others have made the point that by not sharply criticizing the rigged election and following brutality, that Buraq Hussein has given the Iranian Regime “permission” to crack heads and murder innocents. What Buraq did not say is code for ” go right ahead- brutality suppress this uprising, we will look the other way”.
Ed at Hot Air is asserting that the Regime is relying more and more on the Revolutionary Guards to the extent that the Regime will resemble more a military dictatorship and less a theocracy from here on. His thinking is that the more liberal mullahs, the followers of Sistani and other Grand Ayatollahs, will be pushed aside. In any case, we are more likely to see a “hardened” regime that is far less open to criticism or negotiations, and far more encouraged to take further aggressions as a result of Buraq’s foolishly weak response. Buraq has effectively given the Regime the “green light” for more thuggery.
Jun 22, 2009 - 7:51 am 20. Mike Sylwester:Unsk, I too have had the impression that Wretchard made that point.
Jun 22, 2009 - 8:29 am 21. steveaz:Gawd! That NPR stuff really boils my blood..
I remember when NPR blacklisted Stephen Emerson for daring to rebut their favorite guest, Edward Said, on the air. That was early on in the post-911 permutations, ’round ‘02 as I recall.
Emerson’s focus on domestic expressions of Nasserite movements concealed in America’s own patriated mosque culture makes his analysis immune to Said’s reflexive “Orientalist” slander-which relies too heavily on the rote disqualification of any detached, non-Arab critique of Middle Eastern affairs.
Apparently, this was too much for NPR’s Boston producers to bear.
Now, although Said has slipped off NPR’s list of favored contributors, Princeton’s paid Duranty has been replaced by a series of ideological stand-ins…..
The anti-American proxy-project rolls on without a hic or a stumble…and the daring Mr. Emerson is still blacklisted.
Jun 22, 2009 - 9:03 am 22. Agoraphobic Plumber:“in order to maintain in its intact form the narrative that the white Christian capitalist conservative is the greatest evil possible in the universe.”
Well, in order to truly be the GREATEST evil, your statement is incomplete. You forgot heterosexual and male.
Jun 22, 2009 - 9:42 am 23. Agoraphobic Plumber:Also, not speaking Farsi, this video doesn’t really resemble a home invasion to me so much as just screaming in the dark.
I saw/heard something like this on a daily basis when I worked as a commissioner in a Boy Scout camp and I would walk into a troop’s campsite to get them to settle down when it was after midnight and they were running around making a lot of noise. Though, I guess the screams then were a little less urgent (most of the time).
I’m left with the conclusion that if this video is what it is purported to be, then I lived through things similar to a Middle East revolution (minus the automatic weapons and RPGs) on a weekly basis for 6 summers through high school and college. Hm. I’m more of a bad ass than I thought I was.
Jun 22, 2009 - 9:46 am 24. Lifeofthemind:The point about using outside forces to control the cities does not imply that the majority of the rural population supports the regime. What is important is to ensure the reliability of the force used to suppress the people. To do that they must be drawn from another community. They must be Others. This Otherness can be achieved through various means. For a small elite a rigorous program of indoctrination can sever the bonds between a cadre and the community they become a parasite on. In Eastern Europe they had the institution of the Barracks Police. The defining characteristic of which was that they were recruited from social rejects. The Chinese move military units around and replaced the local forces when they proved unreliable in 1989. In ancient Athens the town was patrolled by Scythian archers.
Jun 22, 2009 - 10:10 am 25. Tamquam Leo Rugiens:It is more than rare that evil presents itself nakedly to the eyes of men. No, evil will always seek to hide itself, be it under the cover of darkness, in a lie or behind a wall of silence. Always evil hides. It does so because it knows itself to be what it is: evil. It knows that if its nature were revealed all would recoil from it and it would have no power.
The value of the American Presidency in international affairs derives in no small measure from its power to adumbrate evil deeds in shadow, and so rob them of the tacit legitimacy that silence confers. Mr. Obama’s initial silence followed by a muted “Tut, tut, my good man!” speaks to, at best his own moral ambiguity, or more frankly, to his own predisposition to befriend the darkness.
By the way, there’s going to be a Tea Party Tax Protest / Independence Day Celebration on July 3rd from 3 to 7 pm in La Canada, details here. Admission $10 cash includes hot dogs, hamburgers, drinks and oodles of entertainment including AlfonZo Rachel and other personages of brilliance and renown.
Jun 22, 2009 - 10:27 am 26. always right:What Buraq did not say is code for ” go right ahead- brutality suppress this uprising, we will look the other way”.
No, Buraq Hussein’s code was
” go right ahead – brutally suppress the peasant uprising – finish this little unpleasantness, and we will sit down with you without conditions afterwards”
Jun 22, 2009 - 11:18 am 27. Tony:This is that “robust dialogue” that President Obama refers to?
Well, his only claim to fame was his demand for immediate surrender to Al Qaeda in Iraq when the war was at its nadir. This is what the Democrats voted for, weakness, dishonor, abandonment of American principles. And we got it.
Ps. Is Belmont Club suffering DDOS or some other attack? Posting is iffy.
Jun 22, 2009 - 11:40 am 28. no mo uro:Agoraphobic Plumber-
Thanks for the addendum.
Jun 22, 2009 - 11:41 am 29. Tony:No mo,
Thanks for your post at #7.
Conservatives think liberals have bad ideas.
Liberals think conservatives are bad people.
Jun 22, 2009 - 11:49 am 30. TonyB:Lifeofthemind
To this day the Spanish Guardia Civil live in Barracks and are not drawn from the locale. Franco’s policy.
Jun 22, 2009 - 11:53 am 31. RWE:Dave the Kamapwhatsit #12:
Interesting. I brilliantly pointed out some time back on this very site that our mission in Iraq could have that very effect.
Shia believe that the leader of Islam should descend from Mohhammed. Sunni believe that the leader of Islam should be chosen by the people (i.e., up to now the guy they are afraid of the most).
In Iraq we have had Sunni voting democratically for a Shia leader. And Shia voting for a leader as well. And in Islam religion and national identity tend to get mixed.
If that does not shake Islam to its core on both sides of the schism then nothing will.
Jun 22, 2009 - 12:11 pm 32. peterike:You can’t expect the O to talk smack about Middle Eastern strongmen in Iran. He wants to be a Middle Eastern strongman, only of a very domestic, Leftist sort (same ideas, better clothes).
Just as he did the soul-brother hand jive with the disgusting Ugly Chavez, he would do precisely the same with the Mullahs. Wolves can smell each other from across the room. O’s problem is that he’s not yet the Alpha Male in the wolf pack, so he’s got to roll over and show his belly to the big boys. Don’t think he’s not watching and learning.
He likes the mullahs. It’s as simple as that.
Jun 22, 2009 - 12:37 pm 33. Alexis:The brutality of the Iranian government is not new. Of course it’s brutal. The Iranian government prides itself on gratuitous violence. The only new aspect of this video is that someone had the nerve to send it to CNN.
Jun 22, 2009 - 12:43 pm 34. 49erDweet:I don’t trust the provenance of CNN’s report, so cannot put much faith in its credibility. That said, I see wishful and western thinking in far too many of these comments. We are speaking of a Byzantine world viewed through several “veils”, not all of whose wearers would like us to be able to comprehend these events.
One person’s youthful freedom fighters could easily be another’s decedent, self-destructive generation. We could all abhor the bloodshed while still differing on the desired outcome. As for me, I believe their nation is imploding – and has a long road to travel before the dust settles enough for westerners to “see through the veil”.
Jun 22, 2009 - 2:32 pm 35. buddy larsen:I guess everything political has always been “in the presentation” but somehow more and more reality itself is stripping away all the paint and decorations and the just-so lighting effects –and leaving a thing standing there that is promising to not let anybody anywhere hide anyplace anymore.
Jun 22, 2009 - 2:43 pm 36. Mick:Surprised to see no mention of the right to bear arms in connection with this event. These sorts of ideological militia raids are immensely more costly when the citizenry is armed. From start to finish they are aimed at terrorizing the victims. There are more efficient ways to kill and silence targeted individuals, but these raids were/are as much about the neighbors seeing and hearing the unexpected violence for betrayal of the “revolutioinary” principles on which the mullahcracy is based. With an armed citizenry, the reaction would be precisely the opposite: the neighbors see and hear what is happening, and decide no F-ing way are these bastards gonna get away with this again and get together to make sure they pay a price, having seen what happens when you don’t fight back. Just having that right makes state-sponsored terrorism a conclusion that just doesn’t follow, since then violence doesn’t = terror but provocation.
Jun 22, 2009 - 2:45 pm 37. JFSanders:Mick: It was mentioned in a previous Wretchard post by a commenter. But, yes a nation such as Iran removed all rights when the revolution of 79 ended. It was only through decree that an individual had any rights at all.
As for using out of town thugs to suppress and interdict rioters. Just look at your own backyard. When you drive around notice the number of police and sheriff vehicles in driveways that are not of your jurisdiction… And if you ask about it the story line is we don’t want the drug dealers to be able to find the officer’s home. Seems plausible and most let it go.
But within the time frame of 9-11 to today. We now have DHS and it’s attendant coordination powers. What you will see if you are on the road selling or service tech working. Those that drive the public highways and streets daily. You will notice out of jurisdiction LEOs working traffic stops and such with local PD. Normally a sworn officer is only sworn for his local jurisdiction. But those rules have changed due to DHS consideration. Think Katrina.
We have our own basij in the making.
Jun 22, 2009 - 4:00 pm 38. Tony:JF, the Shah’s DHS impressed me more. Walking through the modern, crowded downtown boulevards of Teheran in ‘77, not long before President Carter pulled out the Shah and welcomed in the Ayatollah, I heard a beloved rumble build behind us. A flight of 4 Phantoms, tight patrol formation, thundered over at about 500 feet, leaving oily black smoketrails for us to ponder as our clothing shuddered in their back blast watching them mercifully move on.
Strange cops on the corner are scary, 4 Phantoms at 500 feet, peace-inducing.
Jun 22, 2009 - 4:22 pm 39. RWE:Mick # 36.
Okay, so what happens when the Shia – or for that matter the Sunni – in Iraq start smuggling weapons to Iran? And the Kurds in the north do so too?
Democracy has already been smuggled across the border. IEDs, RPG’s and AK’s won’t be far behind. Payback is a very unpleasant woman, indeed.
Jun 22, 2009 - 6:02 pm 40. Wadeusaf:Unsk, I appreciate the position and the reason it was made. I just strongly disagree.
Look at what has happened since I posted that comment this morning. On good authority we have it that the Ayatollah has gone into seclusion, hiding if you will, in fear for his own safety. The leader of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards is under arrest for refusing to order his men to suppress the demonstrators. Now how much of this is possible because we did not get on the television and tell the Iranian Government that the United States Government would Officially take it as a personal insult if they got violent toward demonstrators in Tehran or any other Iranian city. I think by not inserting the Official policy of the United States into the mix, the people of Iran were left with a clear understanding that this was not our doing, but rather the making of their own Government. The people in Iran do not trust us, they have been taught not to trust us, and have only recently been able to see the United States through the lens of Post Saddam Iraq instead of Jimmy Carter’s veil of tears.
They are not stupid, they know that twitter was supposed to go down for maintenance, and they know American citizens and especially American students are pulling for them to win their freedom. How could they not?
No I don’t agree that Obama gave anyone permission to harm anyone else by not giving any one a reason to do harm. I find the sort of dialogue that follows such a lines of rational to be somewhat less than reasonable. It is the same stuff that says we gave Saddam the green light to invade Kuwait, because we did not say he couldn’t. Something about disproving a negative.
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