The Financial Times described the dilemma of Mir-Hossein Moussavi, who has been forced by events to either lead from the front or be left behind. It is the dilemma of every leader who seeks to “ride the tiger”. The Chinese phrase “Ch’i ‘hu nan hsia pei” means that “he who rides a tiger is afraid to dismount”, which means that members of the elite who seek to ride a popular wave are often obliged to go where it takes them. The Financial Times writes:
“Poor Moussavi, we took the easel away from his hands and gave him a gun,” quipped a supporter of Mir-Hossein Moussavi, the aggrieved reformist Iranian presidential candidate who is now the country’s main opposition leader. … But within the political establishment that backed him, and the protesters that anointed him their leader, everyone is waiting for signs of how firmly he can hold the “gun” and push forward protest…. Some of Mr Moussavi’s supporters are so enraged that their demands are already shifting from a re-run of the election to a challenge of the regime itself. “People, especially the middle class that supports Moussavi, have demands now that go beyond the law – they are moving to wanting bigger change,” said one opposition supporter. What they lacked was planning, he added.
As I wrote in the Day After, if Moussavi cannot stay at the head of forces he has tapped, they will find a new leader. So the odds are that Mousavi will drop the easel and take up the gun or be left behind. On that occasion I wrote: “But even if Khamenei has beaten back the demonstrators, or bought off Mousavi it is not over. In all likelihood some of the opposition movement will move into a less spontaneous, more clandestine phase: out of the public gaze to be carried on, on both sides, by those with the determination and relentlessness for the job. It’s the world of the cell, cutout, safehouse, the samizdat, the pistol — and alas for some — the bomb. How the resistance will fare, or what its members will evolve into is hard to predict. One thing is probable: that if Mousavi has sold them out, the remnants will require another leadership core.”
Now we have news of concrete demands not for justice within the system, but for the end of the system itself. The Saudi news site Al Arabiya writes:
Religious leaders are considering an alternative to the supreme leader structure after at least 13 people were killed in the latest unrest to shake Tehran and family members of former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, were arrested amid calls by former President Mohammad Khatami for the release of all protesters. … The discussions have taken place in a series of secret meetings convened in the holy city of Qom and included Jawad al-Shahristani, the supreme representative of Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, who is the foremost Shiite leader in Iraq. An option being considered is the resignation of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as Iran’s president following condemnation by the United States and other European nations for violence and human rights violations against unarmed protestors.
Riding the tiger is dangerous. Maybe some clerics, having discovered a large striped feline beneath them bounding toward a cliff, have decided to try and lead things from the front. Good luck to them in dismounting the tiger. Events in Iran have taken on a dynamic all their own. If proof were needed that a really important change has happened, and that leaders are seeking to get in front of it news that the Southern Iraqi religious leader Sistani has become involved has provided the final confirmation. Radio Free Europe reports:
Dubai-based Al-Arabiyah television, which has been doing some provocative reporting and whose Tehran bureau has been ordered shut by Iranian authorities, has reported that Hashemi Rafsanjani met very recently with representatives of the Shi’ite world’s highest authority, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, who lives in neighboring Iraq.
Threatswatch writes (and read the whole thing):
This is a huge development. One of the biggest questions I and others have had since the Iranian protests/revolt/revolution began was whether Mousavi would be any different in tangible effect (Hizballah & Hamas support, etc.) than Ahmadinejad and whether Rafsanjani was seeking to sack ‘Supreme’ Leader Khamenei simply to acquire the powerful position for himself. That question perhaps may have been answered today. My ears first perked up when word made it through the grapevines over the weekend that Rafsanjani had been meeting with other Ayatollahs and clerics in Qom, and had among them a representative of Iraq’s Ayatollah Ali Sistani. Why? Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani in 2007 made two very critical statements: that “I am a servant of all Iraqis, there is no difference between a Sunni, a Shiite or a Kurd or a Christian,” and that Islam can exist within a democracy without theological conflict. You will never hear such words slip past the lips of Iran’s Ayatollah Khamenei. Ever. Sistani’s presence at the Rafsanjani talks in Qom, Iran, through a representative brings therefore added significance. And the al-Arabiya report above seems to suggest that Rafsanjani is not seeking Sistani’s support for superficial reasons. In November 2007 at National Review Online, I wrote about this aspect of Ayatollah Ali Sistani, including a reference to another analysis I had written earlier in the spring.
In fact, what exists is a deep rivalry between the revolutionary Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khameini and the traditionalist Grand Ayatollah Sistani, both claiming authority over the Shi’a faith. While the Khomeinist revolutionary Khameini clearly believes in Shi’a theocracy, the Iraqi Ayatollah Sistani believes that the faith can exist within a democracy without theological conflict. And while the Iranians work to spin the growing Sunni tribal rejection of al-Qaeda as Americans “negotiating with terrorists,” Sistani himself has always had open channels of communication with American forces and the Iraqi government.
Why does this matter for Iran and Iranians? Pay close attention here, for Iraq’s Sistani carries great weight among the Iranian Shi’a faithful.
Sistani’s appeal does not end at the Iraqi border, as Iranians increasingly observe his leadership with interest and fondness. Some are “intrigued by the more freewheeling experiment in Shi’ite empowerment taking place across the border in Iraq,” which is fundamentally different in approach than the Iranian theocratic brand of dictated observance and obedience. The Boston Globe’s Anne Barnard reports that within Tehran’s own central bazaar, “an increasing number of merchants are sending their religious donations, a 20 percent tithe expected from all who can spare it, to Iraq’s most senior Shi’ite cleric.”
If that didn’t quite sink in, go read that paragraph again. many Iranian merchants have been sending their 20% tithes to Sistani, not Khamenei. Since at least 2007. I spoke to the significance of Rafsanjani seeking Sistani’s support earlier on ‘The Steve Schippert Show’ on RFC Radio just before the al-Arabiya story broke. His name is an attention-getter for those aware of players and forces in both Iran and Iraq. And for good reason. Perhaps in Iran, just as in Iraq today, true democracy can exist “without theological conflict” with the Shi’a faith. And perhaps the most unlikely cast of available men in Iran are set to bring that to be. Perhaps only something close, or closer. But whatever the change, and the extent of the change – and it appears the intent is significant change and not simply a game of Shuffling Ayatollahs – it will be positive for Iranians, for the region, for Americans and for the entire world. I think it is nearly inevitable at his point, and time is not on the regime’s side.
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54 Comments
1. exhelodrvr:The economic problems that Iran has been having has to have affected funds going to the religious leadership; on top of that, a significant amount of offerings going into Iraq? That will put the monetary squeeze on the mullahs.
Jun 23, 2009 - 8:37 pm 2. erc rodson:The mahout needed a lot bigger stick or a lot smaller kitty.
Jun 23, 2009 - 8:51 pm 3. Evanston1:So we see the much-maligned Bush approach bear fruit: a democracy planted in the heart of the middle east produces a democratic revolution. The sham elections in Iran may have looked good when compared to Saddam’s Iraq, but now Shia who conduct pilgrimages to Iraq see relatively free wheeling elections and civil rights. Ali al-Sistani offers a credible model of Shia power without the oppression of the Islamic Republic. We obviously don’t know what happens next, but for now the thugs have been forced to play defense on their home turf. Score one point for Bush’s “strategery” and deduct one from Obama as a supposed agent of Change. It is Bush who has brought Hope to the middle east.
Jun 23, 2009 - 8:52 pm 4. Wadeusaf:Did I hear it correctly, The ACLU is bringing a suit to have the Holy Land Fund, Among others off the list of terrorist supporting charities, and allow them to collect tax free monies again.
Al Queda has been been airing a request for more funds for at least the last six months. Ayatollah Sistani was the one who stood between a bullet and Muqtada al Sadr’s brain, he is also the one who’s words kept the Iraqi Shi’ah from going completely nuts after the bombing of the Golden Mosque.
The man has a very sharp mind and possesses very discerning judgment. He has never failed to surprise and impress westerners with his wisdom. I don’t know if the Iraqi theocracy is either surprised or impressed. But Khomeini was a rival Shi’ah cleric and Khamenei is viewed now as little better than a crook who helped Ahmadineajad steal the lastest sham election.
How he interacts with Rafsanjani, and what he states about the Opposition and students activities in Iran will be hugely important. If western governments now refuse to do business with the illegitimate Iranian government, it sends the message that civilized persons will not act nor respect governments that act in such violently suppressive manner.
I cannot speak for president Obama’s motive in saying or not saying what he did when he did, I do find the continued words but not deeds approach to be repugnant in the after math of the the Bassij riot.
God speed to the students in Tehran, they may not have the opportunities to escape that even the folks in Tienanmen Square had.
Jun 23, 2009 - 9:11 pm 5. Unsk:The Regime will probably keep the lid on for a while, but think of what the Regime is supposed to stand for: a Shia Theocracy.
Many of l the Shia Grand Ayatollahs in and out of Iran are seemingly now lining up against the Supreme Leader and Dinnerjacket. There is perhaps a decisive doctrinal split between the two developing. The Quietests may actually prefer Democracy, the rule of law and the legitimacy it brings, while the Supreme Leader and his thugs can’t survive under such democratic conditions.
It is one thing to have a student led underground defying a regime, but if much of the religious establishment is working against
a theocratic regime, that regime has got big problems. The Regime in that situation eventually either has to move against the more liberal mullahs or it will overthrown .
It is such a shame that at this moment in history that we have such a Authoritarian Thug ass kisser like Buraq in office.
Jun 23, 2009 - 9:32 pm 6. twobyfour:Always maintained that W Iraq strategery was a gamble with uncertain results, but with a likelihood that it will set the fundamentals of ME on a different footing in maybe a decade or so. Chicken coming home to roost a tad sooner–what if them chickenz were goodey ones?
I were just waiting for Sistani angle to pop out of woodwork. He is not particularly young, so maybe he decided acting sooner rather than later may offer some advantage to establish a wider legacy of his separation of church and state approach.
Yea, I hear ya… there is nothing set in stone and things still may go really bad. It depends how solidly the IRGC is behind the Khameneist faction… last I heard, not that solidly, some regional IRGC commanders seem to have ambivalent feelings about it. A rumor has it within IRGC circles that the 2 plane crashes in the past few years with some prominent IRGS members were not exactly accidents as the list of deceased reads like who-were-who in the not-so-enamored-with-Ahmadjihad-camp. Maybe just a rumor, ME is a bubbling cauldron of conspiracy theories.
Mousavi is a complex character with some bad skeletons in his closet, but if it works out for him, I see him as a transitional figure… once the change–as he puts it “the pillars of revolution need to be shaken” and by that he means 1979 revolution–takes a place, it is likely that the inherent dynamics would lead to changes beyond the Mousavi’s envisioned scope.
Jun 23, 2009 - 9:42 pm 7. Thrasymachus:I guess the people in Iran didn’t get the message that freedom and democracy were a neocon plot.
Jun 23, 2009 - 10:16 pm 8. Alexis:It may surprise you, but I’m a bit suspicious about the story of al-Sistani’s representative attending a conference in Qom. It’s possible, I suppose, but I have my doubts. If anything, it wouldn’t surprise me if this story were leaked by the Iranian government in order to give the West false hope that the regime was falling faster than it really has been. It wouldn’t surprise me if it were Iranian wishful thinking. It also wouldn’t surprise me if Saudi or Dubai sources fabricated this story.
I would expect any communications involving al-Sistani to be low profile. His offices are probably bugged by Iranian agents and devices, so any move he makes must be more careful than al-Arabiya seems to be implying. In particular, it is difficult to imagine Grand Ayatollah al-Sistani aligning himself in any manner with Rafsanjani.
Grand Ayatollah al-Sistani doesn’t want the Shi’a to fight against one another, and beyond that he doesn’t want Muslims to fight against one another, so he would certainly want a peaceful solution to any crisis in Iran. If a sufficient number of Iranian clerics and government leaders seek an exit strategy into a new constitutional regime, al-Sistani’s guidance may be useful. However, any traditionalist ayatollah will be leery of anybody who even appears to be using the offices of the ayatollah for his own purposes.
Although Grand Ayatollah al-Sistani does intervene occasionally in political affairs, he only does so in extremis. Never ask for his help in vain. He rarely ever tips his hand early in a crisis. And if he were inclined to intervene in this crisis, it would be unlikely that he would tip his hand this early.
So, is this story possible? Yes. Unlikely, but possible. I still have my doubts.
Jun 23, 2009 - 10:47 pm 9. Wadeusaf:Alexis, Excellent observations, what we do not know is what message the representative from Al Sistani gave to the group in Quom.
Jun 24, 2009 - 4:37 am 10. hdgreene:At the time Ahmadinejad’s victory through the obvious use of widespread fraud, I wondered if that was the starting gun for a widespread purge of the regime — using the cover of a “cultural revolution” to uproot the patronage systems of the “Rafsanjani” camp, which sink deep into the Iranian Society. It seemed obvious to me that you don’t give those guys time to organize against you while you are making your big move.
Perhaps the Sistani current coming out of Iraq will have the force of a thousand returning truck bombs, but one that does not destroy innocent people and property, but instead dismantles a truly evil regime. Here’s hoping.
Jun 24, 2009 - 5:21 am 11. Joshua:Anyone else notice the striking parallels to Frank Herbert’s Dune novels? Think of Mousavi as Paul Atreides, and the Iranian opposition as the Fremen. Originally Paul just wanted his planet back, but once he fell in with the Fremen and got a glimpse of their potential and their ambitions, he also knew he had to ride that particular tiger. Mousavi can only hope he can ride his tiger as well as Paul did.
Jun 24, 2009 - 5:52 am 12. RWE:Interesting to compare the relative postions of Iran and Iraq pre-Bush and post Bush.
They have reversed, both internationally and domestically.
And as I have said, the situation in Iraq potentially gives the Iraqi Shia – and Sunni – enormous influence in the Islamic world, even as the power of the Islamic Fascists in Iran slips away.
Pres Bush promised that Iran would not be allowed to develop a nuke. And the man never, ever lied.
Jun 24, 2009 - 6:17 am 13. Brock:Alexis, very astute.
But I still think it’s possible. Sistani wants to preserve Shi’a Islam, and I think he has learned (as the Catholic Church did before him) that religious authority cannot indefinitely survive bearing the costs of political responsibility. This might be his only chance to bring the Reformation to Iran, in which case he might well take it. It is risky, but I see the goal and benefit to him.
Jun 24, 2009 - 6:19 am 14. Morton Doodslag:Sistani has consistently refused to meet with any American interlocutors. Why? Could it be that vile Muslim conviction that among those things unclean are numbered excrement, dogs, saliva, and Kaffir? Good grief – the credulity of your assessment leaves me astonished. What is the context of that comment attributed to Sistani about his supposed belief in the basic sameness of Kurds, Shiites, and Christians? Da’wa for Shiite Islam.
It is curious to learn about the revenue stream into Sistani’s clutches from zakat from Iranian merchants — this coupled with billions in oil revenues now available to him explain much about his ascendancy. Let’s see how Sistani’s pluralistic heart-warming equanimity holds up now that power is in his grasp. I doubt his Islam is any different from that of the vile mullahs in Tehran. Given its bloody 1400 year record of terror, destruction, and ruthless conquest, it is foolish in the extreme to act towards Islam like some smitten 14 year old girl — yet that is what’s been on display in many sectors since the turmoil began to unfold in Iran.
As facts emerge, the Islamic nature of this uprising seriously call into question analysis which affixes democratic, humanist, pluralistic impulses to these demonstrations. Just because Iranians appear disillusioned with the predictable results of living under pure Islam doesn’t mean that Islam has somehow morphed into something it is not, has never been, and never will be. If they cling to their Islam, then more terror, oppression, misery, and tyranny is their inevetable lot. Worse, it will remain our lot too. The revolting consequences of living under the Islamic banner is their choice. But increasingly the choice made by the world’s billion Muslims places the rest of humanity under serious jeopardy. It’s long past time to face the facts. But please don’t indulge in to your fantasies about the reformability of Islam too long. Time is not our friend in this. The eventual costs and escalate and expand with each hour.
Jun 24, 2009 - 6:27 am 15. twobyfour:Alexis, a disinfo produced by the current government? That would be the most stupidest disinfo they could come up with. Like they need to delegitimize themselves even more!
If untrue, it is more likely that it comes from the oppsition, or it is just a rumor.
Jun 24, 2009 - 6:52 am 16. Pajamas Media » Mousavi’s Dilemma: Fight or Fold?:[...] Read the entire piece here. [...]
Jun 24, 2009 - 6:52 am 17. "progressive"watch:I think any optism about the Iranian situation is too optimistic.
Jun 24, 2009 - 7:29 am 18. twobyfour:@17
Optisms are generally value neutral… provided they are not a figment of imagination–their existence is doubted by an overwhelming majority at the moment.
Jun 24, 2009 - 7:47 am 19. Seppo:Sistani had better have a very robust security apparatus surrounding his own person. The Iran regime has many deadly assets in Iraq still, should he become viewed by them as a possible rival.
Jun 24, 2009 - 8:07 am 20. David W. Lincoln:Alexis, why would Grand Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani not take steps to make
his life easier? After all, Iran under the management of Khameini, creates the most trouble for him.
Logic does apply every so often.
Jun 24, 2009 - 8:22 am 21. Todd in Japan:11. Joshua:
That is so strange… I’ve had a few few Dune comparisons in my head since this began. Especially his idea in later books about the power of using a martyr to overcome better armed enemies. I just hope it ends well.
Jun 24, 2009 - 8:50 am 22. always right:GWBush threw the first stone in the ME pond. The first spreading ripple hit Iran, what we are seeing right now.
The second, third ripples will have effects, not just in outlying ME region, but in South America, even in the unlikest places (for example, China).
Chavez et al might be forced to all together abandon any election route. Why creat a potentially embarrassing moment for the dictators themselves?
Jun 24, 2009 - 9:13 am 23. ked5:11. Joshua:
Anyone else notice the striking parallels to Frank Herbert’s Dune novels? Think of Mousavi as Paul Atreides, Mousavi can only hope he can ride his tiger as well as Paul did.
~~~~
I would suggest if you want to stick with that particular similie, Paul was riding a worm.
Jun 24, 2009 - 9:17 am 24. Thomas L......:As I’ve been saying to the “Why Iraq?” crowd for several years, look at a map. Blame Bush!
Jun 24, 2009 - 10:22 am 25. Mousavi’s tiger « X Contra:[...] Richard Fernandez mentions the revolution’s tiger that carries newbie Mousavi, from which Mousavi might not like to dismount for a while. Dismounting means a different world, perhaps, for the cleric. It’s the world of the cell, cutout, safehouse, the samizdat, the pistol — and alas for some — the bomb. [...]
Jun 24, 2009 - 10:32 am 26. Sherab Zangpo:On the side of the topic: things are going bad there:
at
http://atlasshrugs2000.typepad.com/
I find these titles, and some European newspapers online are on the same tone:
Lalezar Sq is same as Baharestan – unbelievable – ppls murdered everywhere
…plans to execute over 450 protesters arrested. This is murder!
We are being murdered like mice in a lion’s den!!! BUT WE STILL FIGHT!!! The world just watches
12:45pm Listen to a student’s eyewitness account of the massacre: LINK on the page
Thank you for the opportunity to comment
Jun 24, 2009 - 10:34 am 27. David W> Lincoln:The goal is to have religious plurality in Iran. Iraq has it, because
the Grand Ayatollah al-Sistani gets it that there are not enough hours in the day, or enough energy in a person, to juggle the demands of mosque, with those of government. Because there is more to life than the job.
So, those who can arrive at this point the soonest, may the road be cleared for them.
Jun 24, 2009 - 10:35 am 28. SAF:The Iron Hand of the Mullahs will prevail. As long as they buy munitions and such from the Russians they have little to fear from the UN, US or anyone else. As we learned with the embargo of Iraq there are many countries and companies willing and eager to trade clandestinely or not to make money.
Economic sanctions didn’t work with Iraq and they won’t work with Iran. And the Mullahs know perfectly well they can kill as many Iranians as they need to in order for order, their order to be restored.
We’ve said harsh words to North Korea. How is that working out?
Jun 24, 2009 - 10:36 am 29. X Contra:7/Thrasymachus — Good one! Made me laugh.
“It’s the world of the cell, cutout, safehouse, the samizdat, the pistol — and alas for some — the bomb.” Good sentence.
But I have to question, when will the Hamas/Hezbollah suicide bomber show up? So far the mullahs have not utilized that weapon on their own people. PersianKiwi seems to say that there has been a LOT of bloodshed today. Maybe when it gets close to the end we will see the desperation of the mullahs when they send out the suicide bombers.
Jun 24, 2009 - 10:36 am 30. Sherab Zangpo:I’m reading on different pages on the net that CNN and various Arabs media are reporting massacres going on, crowds attacked with machine guns, and all sorts of horrors.
Thank you for the opportunity to comment
Jun 24, 2009 - 10:45 am 31. wGraves:If the social structure of Iran is similar to that of Iraq and Afghanistan, then there exists an unanalyzed and unreported group of clan and sept leaders who have to be deeply affecting events. The protesting students don’t exist in a vacuum, they are members of clan, sept, family, and denomination. In this context, there must be an vigorous national conversation occurring within families and other social contexts. I suspect that the outcome of this conversation will determine the outcome of the current unrest. I wonder if our President, with all of his intelligence resources, is much better informed than we seem to be?
Jun 24, 2009 - 11:38 am 32. dan:hard not to wish for some combined ops by central command – i happen to think a few b-2, f-22, cruise missiles, etc. might be a nice way to open the gate for the masses to flow through and overwhelm the overhwelmed security regime…
but perhaps i am just a horrible neocon simpleton-demon.
Jun 24, 2009 - 12:11 pm 33. always right:Re: Earth to Richard Cohen
Is there any chance some pundits(?) will ever wise up on THE ‘inmaterial and incompetent’ ONE?
What will it take?
Jun 24, 2009 - 12:16 pm 34. David W. Lincoln:The icepack is breaking up, and none too soon:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124580553688545019.html
plus this, even though too much credit is given
to the Oval Office:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124580498089244981.html
Jun 24, 2009 - 12:55 pm 35. SAF:32. Dan:
I disagree with your approach but not for the reasons you might guess.
I don’t believe you can gift a country its freedom. The Afghanistan doesn’t really have it and it is unclear if Iraq will keep theirs, only time will tell. People need to earn their own freedom as the Poles did. All the US can do is stand by and make sure perhaps that a foreign power does not intercede.
So it would be nice to see the Iranian’s break out of their shackles but sending over a B2 or anything else will not help. The protesters need to convert their military to their side, not kill them.
Jun 24, 2009 - 1:02 pm 36. Alexis:Imagine that a Sufi saint named Hajji abu Muslim goes into a trance and attains a unity of intellect. Allah directs him to dial a telephone number, he does so, and “Supreme Leader” Khamenei answers the phone.
“Salaam Aleikum. This is Ali.”
“Allahu Akbar. This is Allah. I command you to resign immediately.”
“Who is this?”
“I am Allah and I am great. I warn you to end your tyranny. You must resign.”
Mr. Khamenei slams down the phone. He mutters, “English imposter!”
.
Even if God Himself were to get on the phone and tell Iran’s leaders what to do, there is nothing keeping Iran’s leaders from thinking it is some crank call from a Mousavi supporter. In Shi’ite Islam, the guiding hand is generally hidden from view. It is typically seen as a sign of weakness to show one’s hand, which is precisely why Mr. Khamenei’s overt support for Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is so scandalous. Most ayatollahs and certainly the traditionalist ayatollahs are customarily elliptical in their speech, typically phrasing their opinions in terms of universal principles.
It is a rare ayatollah who would express his views in the language of vernacular politics.
Jun 24, 2009 - 1:03 pm 37. dan:i dunno. what if they’re earning their freedom but a bunch of robot stormtroopers stand in their way? besides, it’s not at all clear that what you imply happened in europe in fact happened. have you ever read The Hole in the Flag by NPR correspondant Andrei Codrescieu? after his several months there just after the execution of ceausescu he started to realize that the “revolution” – The Salvation Front – were all members of the previous communist government, and they remain in power to this day.
regardless, i happen to think that pronouncements on these subjects are mere ideology. there is no way of knowing what will happen in either case. perhaps this current revolt has irrep’rably damaged the regime, and it will wither away as it tries to reform. Or the regime will re-assert itself for some time before it cracks under a concerted international and internal subversion effort. Or perhaps it will re-assert itself and put Moussavi in a prominent place and appear to have reorganized itself into an Islamic Revolution with a Human Face. Or perhaps it will re-assert itself, build a bomb, and – believing its time to be short and the international conditions ripe enough – will send a nuke into Israel, or the USA, or both.
No one knows. I do know, however, that the people are in the streets, ready to flow into the void we might be able to create where a wicked government used to be.
If nothing else, well-placed strikes aimed at critical assets might greatly reduce Iran’s ability to make Iraq and Afghanistan so difficult for us – but only if it is clear that our aim is regime change.
I don’t know. I’m probably just getting too excited.
Jun 24, 2009 - 1:41 pm 38. SAF:36 Dan:
Time will tell.
When the Shah was booted out a lot of Iranians left for America. I knew and know quite a few. One parlayed his ability into hundreds of millions of dollars. That’s not to say the only ones left in Iran have no ability. But many saw the handwriting on the wall and took a hike.
Those who remained support the Mullahs. I can’t see how this ends well for the protesters. And you can be sure we won’t do a thing, they are on their own.
Jun 24, 2009 - 2:01 pm 39. X Contra:Good one, Alexis. Those wiley Britishers!!!
Jun 24, 2009 - 2:46 pm 40. dan:ive heard quite a few times now that the most iranians do not support the regime, unless they are its clients, because the islamic revolution rules in such away that the many are quite clear about their place in the nation. i too know many iranian ex-pats and they hate the islamic revolution. they refuse to say they are iranian, they say they are persian.
in any case that does not address the point. it is all very well to wring our hands and have twitter messages and concerned cnn reporters furrowing their brows and pundits lambasting obama for his response (obviously he expects the regime to survive and has banked on it diplomatically) and us writing our little blog posts – but in tehran and other cities there are people like us confronting the robotic internal security forces, the real essence of every totalitarian state, and being beaten or worse. and it’s having an effect – it looks from here like things are petering out, like moussavi’s retreating to his usual perch in the regime (i still think his bullshit was planned).
i still think we should have taken the opportunity to give them a real shot at overwhelming their jailers. i bet you they would have known exactly what it meant and known exactly how to respond. the rest is words. but that’s just my opinion. now the opportunity may have been lost for another decade or two, here before iran has nuclear weapons, just before the entire scene in the region is probably goin to change decisively for the worse. would it be so bad to risk overthrowing a regime we are already at war with? i don’t think so.
Jun 24, 2009 - 2:59 pm 41. Dero:Where is all this “good for bush” stuff coming from. Rafsanjani gets rich off kick backs off of illegal arms sales, and just how much of that money that flows into Iraq do you think goes to Shia militias?
Be careful making presumptions about what’s happening over there.
Jun 24, 2009 - 3:07 pm 42. Evanston1:wGraves comment (31) is very pertinent. Families and entire clans are represented by these students…even if they don’t share the protestors’ enthusiasm for change, they know the regime will make them share in the punishment collectively. So this is no small, temporary thing for large groups of Iranian society.
Dero (41), as best I can make out, your argument is that any regime change would merely be superficial. OK, that’s arguable. But the “good for bush” position is summarized in my comment (3) that the current regime has “been forced to play defense on their home turf.” I believe that is a good thing, and that it can be attributed to the change next door in (Shia run) Iraq. If you don’t recognize the merits of that point, then your own “presumptions” are blinding you.
Jun 24, 2009 - 3:48 pm 43. lefroy:No prizes for guessing which way Moussavi will jump. He’s no hero. Most of his life he’s been a spineless party man, and a terrorist thug in the service of the regime. To continue the feline metaphor, where is the evidence that he has changed his spots?
Jun 24, 2009 - 4:25 pm 44. David W. Lincoln:Dan, your post about how little people can do does not bear up to the facts.
We have the power to contact embassies with the
analysis of Steve Schippert’s that was in Michael Ledeen’s entry that has attracted more than 200 posts.
I have done so already, for I sent it to my Prime Minister (I’m a Canadian, residing in Canada), as well as his most energetic cabinet
minister, as well as the British Prime Minister (for it is easier to contact 10 Downing Street, via email, than the British High Commission), the Australian Foreign Minister (same thing as the British), and the embassies of Poland, the Czech Republic, Japan, Germany, and Israel.
Now, which embassies in Washington that have email links, have you contacted asking about what those governments have to say about human
rights abuses in the form of unarmed protestors being killed. Are they content to talk tough, or will they actually do something
about it, along the lines of dealing with War
Criminals (but outside the farce that Milosevic went through).
We, who are not blue bloods, have more power today than in the days of the Sun King, because we are more than sweepings, and frankly the best example needs to be set, so
Jun 24, 2009 - 5:12 pm 45. JFSanders:that those who do not have what we have, can see that they can have this power. But, it comes with discipline.
Well said Mr. Lincoln. Firing at will. Godspeed to the students.
Jun 24, 2009 - 6:02 pm 46. David W. Lincoln:Thank you JF Sanders. Steve Schippert has an update to his analysis posted on Michael Ledeen’s entry that has roughly 250 comments:
http://threatswatch.org/rapidrecon/2009/06/rafsanjani-has-votes-to-remove/
Perhaps the tide has turned, or the tide has gotten stronger.
Jun 24, 2009 - 6:29 pm 47. ella:I am not sure how much improvement, if any, Rafsanjani would be over Khamenei. He was a colleague of Khomeini, he supported Hizbullah as well as Iran research on nuclear armaments and his premiere interest is to preserve his wealth. He is also not liked in Iran because of corrupt way he got and increases his already vast wealth.
As for Zakat – in 2007 Ahmadinejad was talking a lot about trying to fight corruption, that was probably the main reason for why bazaris changed the recipient of their zakat from khamenei (who supported anti-corruption policy of Ahmadinejad) to Sistani . I also noticed that many mullahs as well as Rafsanjani were very upset with overt accusations of corruption by Ahmadinejad. That is not done in Iran. That is also one of the reason why he most likely won’t stay a president.
Now, I do not say that Ahmadinejad is not a fanatic and should not be removed but some of the forces arrayed now against him are far removed from being a democratic and are fanatical in themselves.
Jun 25, 2009 - 10:03 am 48. David W. Lincoln:Ella, something broke in the Islamic Republic when Khameini was defied by the crowds. Then he
abandoned his overhead perch, and descended to that place where those who dwell are called, “just another politician”.
Rafsanjani has his history, and frankly he sees that what Montazeri went through, plus what is going on in Iraq; he sees that it is time for Iran to turn the page.
For Michael Ledeen has time and time again pointed towards the involvement of Iran in Iraq that was simply detrimental for Iraq. Despite all this, and all else that was detrimental, Iraq is still paying attention to
the Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, where he
says that there is a path for Shia Islam, and
Khomeini detoured from it, and Khameini is still on the detoured path.
I am looking forward to the next posting by Michael Ledeen, for there is a lot of work to
Jun 25, 2009 - 5:08 pm 49. wheelers_cat:be done, and frankly I think the needs have already been identified.
O Wretchard…..how the mighty have fallen.
Bush and Ajax made democracy a dirty word in MENA.
But the Green Wave will overcome.
The Shi’ia are good at nonviolent protests….that is how they survived the Umayydd Caliphate, and overthrew the tyrant Shah.
Perhaps you should read this….
“Now that Ayatollah Khamenei has become inexorably connected to Ahmadinejad’s power grab, many clerics are coming around to the idea that the current system needs to be changed. Among those who are now believed to be arrayed against Ayatollah Khamenei is Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the top Shi’a cleric in neighboring Iraq. Rafsanjani is known to have met with Grand Ayatollah al-Sistani’s representative in Iran, Javad Shahrestani.
A reformist website, Rooyeh, reported that Rafsanjani already had the support of nearly a majority of the Assembly of Experts, a body that constitutionally has the power to remove Ayatollah Khamenei. The report also indicated that Rafsanjani’s lobbying efforts were continuing to bring more clerics over to his side. Rafsanjani’s aim, the website added, is the establishment of a leadership council, comprising of three or more top religious leaders, to replace the institution of supreme leader. Shortly after it posted the report on Rafsanjani’s efforts to establish a new collective leadership, government officials pulled the plug on Rooyeh.”
What if…..the Council of three…..became Rafsanjani, Khameni, and…..Sayeed ali al Sistani?
Jun 25, 2009 - 7:31 pm 50. ella:lol
how devious
@David W. Lincoln
Oh I now that something broke in IRI after Khamenei speech. At last.
But one thing Iranians really want to change is corruption, corruption and once again corruption and Rafsanjani is one of the most corrupted of them all. His (extended) family has even businesses in Canada
I also do think that you are misreading mullahs. Although many say that Khomeini was innovator, over the many decades there were really two conflicting points of view of shia clergy on politics – one quietist and the other one not. And although majority supported the former how could they completely separate themselves from politics if they were owners of large areas of land, many buildings and businesses endowed to them by pious shia. The ownership of land was the reason why Khomeini & Co., started the Islamic revolution and they still own the land, businesses, and the factories in Iran, do they not?
As for Grand Ayatollah Sistani – he is old, but he and the clergy in Najaf are quite wealthy, which was one reason why Muqtada as Sadr attacked Najaf couple of years ago . It is also one of the reasons why the Najaf clergy is so influential in Iraq. And the reason why Najaf once again may be center of shia learning.
Jun 25, 2009 - 9:47 pm 51. wheelers_cat:Money talks, as they say. Money also makes politics.
yessss…..have you thought, Wretchard, what the set of possible moves for Rafsanjani is right now?
If there is to be a council….Khameni or Mojtada can be offered seats…saves face and ensures their succession. I think….Rafsanjani of course…..possibly Montazeri……but the brilliant choice…..would be Sayeed Ali al Sistani as part of the Council…..think of it….a strong united Shi’ia front, heal the rift between Najaf and Qom, Sistani IS the titular head of all Shi’ia Islam and his lineage and scholarship are impeccable.
Wouldn’t that be a genius move?
shhhh……did you hear that?
Jun 26, 2009 - 8:32 am 52. Ms. Attitude:It was the sound of every neocon head in America simultaneously exploding.
Friday, June 26, 2009
Associated Press
In Friday’s central Muslim sermon at Tehran University, a senior cleric, Ayatollah Ahmed Khatami, called for harsh retribution for dissent.
“Anybody who fights against the Islamic system or the leader of Islamic society, fight him until complete destruction,” he said in the nationally broadcast speech.
The cleric claimed some involved in the unrest had used firearms.
“Anyone who takes up arms to fight with the people, they are worthy of execution,” he said. “We ask that the judiciary confront the leaders of the protests, leaders of the violations, and those who are supported by the United States and Israel strongly, and without mercy to provide a lesson for all.”
Jun 26, 2009 - 10:10 am 53. Typos_R_Us:“shhhh……did you hear that?
It was the sound of every neocon head in America simultaneously exploding.”
Sounded more like a bomb under Big Sis’s (Sistani )limo to me. Which, after all, is how Big Sis got the job from Mookie’s dad in the first place.
Jun 26, 2009 - 11:23 am 54. hangnail:Nuke the bastards and make the country into a glass wok. After the radiation subsides the place will be just right for a glass lined,leak free,nuclear waste storage area for the entire world!
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