There’s a difference?

One Stone to rule them all, One Stone to find them,
One Stone to bring them all and in the darkness bind them
In the Land of Saudi where the Shadows lie.

The rest of y’all are correct to note that this is an old rivalry, that there’s a mixture of religious & political motives. This is also blindingly obvious.

The subtlety is in what kind of “storm” awaits, as Wretchard mentions in his last sentence. Given that Iraq has been exposed to all sorts of chaos, I believe they can handle it. It’s Iran that is untested and once the grip starts loosening in an authoritarian regime, it’s tough to know who to trust. After all, your rule is mainly based on fear. Those who respond to this motivation will quickly change sides if they can cut a deal for more power and less fear. Thus old hands like Mousavi and Rafsanjani know how to reassert themselves. Much like Wretchard’s experience with the fall of Marcos in the Phillipines, key players see an opportunity and know how to change the balance of political power. Even if they fail, the inner struggle in Iran is a good thing.

The bottom line for the U.S. is an inward-looking, chaotic Iran should be less likely to project power elsewhere in the region.

UPDATE II: The 3-day strike. Apparently the regime was so worried about the strike that they shut down most factories, businesses and offices. This is another sign of regime insecurity. And Mousavi today (Monday) received several distinguished visitors, including Khomeini’s grandson.
—
Steve Schippert predicted this strike a week ago.

“The Americans are in a state of mind according to which Iran has already gone nuclear,” said Dr. Mordechai Kedar of Bar-Ilan’s Begin Sadat Center for Strategic Studies.

Kedar, who served in Military Intelligence for 25 years, said US President Barack Obama was “at peace” with the idea of a nuclear Iran.

“You can tell from how the Americans talk. Look at how [US special envoy] George Mitchell talks, or how Obama talks. I don’t see them being pressured by this threat. They have shown no urgent desire to change this reality,” he added.

“Obama has given up,” Kedar said.

Given his past associations and his family’s conduct (read: Michelle and the girls going burqa-free), the Nation of Islam seems much more likely to me than either of the above. The thing is though, NoI’s specific beliefs and practices are considered MINO by Islamic supremacists, much like fundamentalist (and many other) Christians tend to regard the Mormons, only with the antipathy amped up by an order of magnitude or two. (Daniel Pipes’ book Militant Islam Reaches America has an entire chapter devoted to this subject. See also Keith Ellison, who is touted as the first Muslim U.S. congressman, but is actually NoI and doesn’t exactly adhere to many customs we associate with conventional Islam.)

So even if Obama were NoI, that wouldn’t necessarily translate to any great affinity with Tehran or the Taliban, and certainly not vice versa.

A great read, with a very somber and depressing ending.

Islam is but an overlay to a very old, tribal way of life in that harsh country. We chased out the Taliban and Al Qaeda (for now), but we can’t chase out the tribalism that was the host and fostered that sort of thing. Lower your expectations.

“One of my favorite writers, Patrick Devenny, wrote an article recently for Foreign Policy that’s not only fascinating and fun, but also has much to teach us about, in Mr. Devenny’s words, “one of the most complicated problems in Afghanistan today:
the training and oversight of local defense forces.

What’s my thesis? That the key to understanding Afghanistan today is not Islamism or jihadism. It’s tribalism. The tribal mind-set (warrior pride, hostility to outsiders, codes of honor and resistance to change) permeates everything. Think of these videos as a mini-course in tribalism. I invite discussion. Tell me I’m crazy, tell me I’m wrong. If you agree, tell me too.”

– Steven Pressfield (Gates of Fire, among others)