President Bush recently told my pal, Sarah Baxter, at the Sunday Times (of London) that he wants to get bin Laden before he leaves office.

Here are some random thoughts and observations, culled from conversations with White House staffers, intelligence analysts and others:

Bin Laden and Bush agree on one thing. Both prefer he is killed, rather than captured. Every intelligence analyst that I have spoken with says this. I would have presumed that bin Laden would be an intelligence treasure trove. Yes, but his capture would lead to stepped up attacks by al Qaeda. And last week’s Supreme Court ruling means that the archterrorist might have constitutional rights that would make holding him a legal nightmare.

Here politics and policy align. Surely, Senator McCain would approve. It would be the kind of “October Surprise” that would help him win the White House. For McCain to win, he needs every state Bush carried in 2004. Iowa and New Mexico are on a razor’s edge for the Republicans–a bin Laden capture or killing might tip the balance. It might also help reduce the size of the GOP losses in Congress, which are expected by Republicans to be substantial.

It might actually happen. Since 2007, U.S. Special Forces have been operating in Pakistan’s wild tribal areas.  Previously, their forays were brief and furtive. Now the operational tempo has increased and seeking high-value targets inside Pakistan no longer has the allure of forbidden fruit. It seems normal, like Afghanistan. And, yes, the American teams hunting bin Laden have the permission of the Pakistani government–no matter what its leaders tell its public. Plus, the U.S. embassy tip line in Islamabad is actually generating leads, although how solid no one will say.
Most Likely, it will be a Predator strike. While Hollywood might prefer black-clad SEALs fast-roping down into bin Laden’s cave lair, bin Laden’s end will, most likely, end with both a bang and a whimper. An anonymous signal intelligence officer will notice something unusual in a satellite photo. It will match up with a tip gleaned from a local by an American commando. Another analyst will put the two together. Electronic ears and eyes will focus and strain. And wait. Then a tired uniform staring at his monitor will notice something unusual is happening 6,000 miles away. An entourage of SUVs has turned up in a poor village. The database reveals that some of the turbaned heads emerging from the SUVs match those of senior Taliban and al Qaeda leaders. And then, for a flash of an instance, bin Laden emerges from the shadows to greet them.  That moment of incaution will cost him his life. A Predator is dispatched and the lawyers are called to see if it is legal to hit a mud-walled house that contains both the man who ordered the deaths of 3,000 Americans and, perhaps, some women and children making the terrorists tea. Unheard, the Predator circles overhead as the military lawyers and intelligence officers debate. And, in the next knot in this string of good luck, the lawyers agree. A Hellfire missile ignites from under the unmanned drone’s wing and races toward the mountain hut. The screens go white as the rocket explodes. In the wreckage, the camera detects many male bodies. In a few days, the military may be able to confirm the kill–if signal intelligence picks up mourning on al Qaeda web sites or cell phones or if a recon team is able to secure the area and take DNA samples. Meanwhile, the president is told. Like everyone else, Bush has to wait in silence until the news is confirmed. If it isn’t, it was just another false dawn in the war on terror. But, if luck holds, it is the big moment–the one that makes a legacy.