Over at Wizbang, a fascinating look inside the raw numbers of the lastest Gallup Organization’s polls.
Skip the opening paragraphs about “trolls,” and dive into the numbers he dissects. If you look at the raw numbers, McCain is significantly ahead of Obama and his support is steady or growing in all categories. Meanwhile, Obama is steady or falling in all categories.
But Gallup reports Obama up over McCain by two points. Why? The weighting of voters–basically a guestimate about voter turnout–has changed over at Gallup, favoring Republicans during their convention but now favoring the Democrats. All polling organization weight the numbers. The question is how.
Now, here is where it gets fascinating. Wizbang re-weights the numbers to match ratios established by exit polls (polls of voters exiting the voting booth) in the past few presidential contests. Result: Obama 39%, McCain 45%.
Could Wizbang be right? If voter turnout doesn’t change substantially, yes, he could be right. Read his post and decide for yourself.
One hypothesis I would add: Republican and Republican-leaning independents are now favoring McCain because they took his pick of Palin as a signal that he will govern as a conservative, not a RINO.
And that, of course, is why liberals hate Palin. They wanted an election between two liberals, a hard and soft option. And now they are disappointed. So they want to punish McCain through Palin.





PJM Home
Disinformation : 22 Media Myths That Undermine the War on Terror
Shadow War: The Untold Story of How Bush Is Winning the War on Terror
Losing Bin Laden: How Bill Clinton’s Failures Unleashed Global Terror
The Myth of Market Share: Why Market Share Is the Fool’s Gold of Business
Pajamas Media appreciates your comments that abide by the following guidelines:
1. Avoid profanities or foul language unless it is contained in a necessary quote or is relevant to the comment.
2. Stay on topic.
3. Disagree, but avoid ad hominem attacks.
4. Threats are treated seriously and reported to law enforcement.
5. Spam and advertising are not permitted in the comments area.
The clause regarding "hate speech" has been deleted because readers criticized it as being too loosely defined. We agreed.
These guidelines are very general and cannot cover every possible situation. Please don't assume that Pajamas Media management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment. We reserve the right to filter or delete comments or to deny posting privileges entirely at our discretion. If you feel your comment was filtered inappropriately, please email us at story@pajamasmedia.com.
44 Comments
1. Brian:Agreed — Wizbang’s analysis is very, very interesting, and you’ve given a good synopsis of its salient features.
Sep 20, 2008 - 7:58 pm 2. 888:McCain has an independent streak in him and votes for what he believes is right for the country — meaning he isn’t beholden to any one person, party or special interest group. That’s why it’s ludicrous when Obama and the liberal establishment try to label McCain as just another Bush. True, McCain has sided with Bush on some issues, like the immigrant worker pass (which many in the GOP have called amnesty for illegal immigrants), Iraq and also he’s a staunch pro-lifer and fiscal conservative, but McCain has also criticized and opposed Bush and the Republican Party on lots of issues — hence, the Maverick nickname. At one time, I actually thought he was going to switch parties, and a lot of Republicans including moi, couldn’t stand him because you never if he was going to go against his party. Now, I understand where he’s coming from and see that he just plain cares about his country and its citizens and wants to do what’s right, irregardless of party affiliation. That takes courage, and that’s what I like about him. But one thing I wouldn’t call McCain is a liberal. McCain is far from that. If anything, he is a compassionate conservative, and that’s why he votes the way he does on some social issues. At least, he isn’t a hypocrite, and he tells you like it is.
Sep 21, 2008 - 5:08 am 3. cedarford:I think the fallout from the economy will rule who voters choose. That will be the dominant issue once voters understand how what happened in NYC and in DC will affect their lives.
Then all the Palin, Jesus stuff, Iraq goes into the background..
Who do you want in charge of a partially broken country?
1. An old man 30 years in Washington who doesn’t know much about the economy but says he will reform the mess – as a “maverick” who regularly flips on issues?
2. Or an untested, underqualified man who deeply believes he is the Wisest of All. The One…Who has little experience but who is now the most liberal person in the US Senate.
Pity the Republicans tossed aside Mitt Romney on anti-Mormon bigotry and for not being as “pure” on anti-abortion as a Fundie. And his “phony” image.
Same with Tommy Thompson who was “unexciting”.
And Evan Bayh. Also “unexciting”.
Well, the American Public gets the leaders and regulators it deserves by its “wisdom of voting, the miracle of Democracy..”
Right now what they “deserved” doesn’t look too appetizing for the next 4 years, whichever Nominee they select.
Sep 21, 2008 - 1:02 pm 4. Pajamas Media » Is McCain or Obama Ahead? Well, it Depends…:[...] Read the entire piece here. [...]
Sep 22, 2008 - 1:50 am 5. ParisParamus:Cedarford, history belies your assertions about McCain. Are you genuinely ignorant, or another astroturfer sent by Axelrod? McCain may not be an economics major, but he knows a huge amount more than the economy than ZerObama. And yes, I would have picked Mitt.
Sep 22, 2008 - 3:15 am 6. JGH:But … will the republicans be able to mount that kind of turnout? And will the Democrat turnout be larger for “Fill the Stadium” Obama than it was for “Fill the End Zone” Kerry?
That’s the big question. Turnout is going to be a very big issue, and both parties are going to “get out and vote” in record numbers … it’ll still be tight.
Sep 22, 2008 - 6:19 am 7. Marina:Wizbang has already published Errata:
http://wizbangblog.com/content/2008/09/20/errata.php
But the main result is the same: McCain’s support increases or stays in every single category, but magically declines “taken as a whole”.
Sep 22, 2008 - 6:21 am 8. chicago:cedarford,
the old man your talking about has a record of voting for ZERO earmarks while Obama has an 88% rating voting for earmarks and Biden has a 100% vote for earmarks.
people know each candidate’s record and sure enough, Obama’s losing steam in the polls again.
watch Obama’s poll numbers decline further as this week progresses, and especially after this Friday’s debate which is focused on Foreign policy.
since majority of the polls have geared their sampling with more democrats, Obama’s slide in the polls is not merely showing a decline for Obama but a major surge for McCain.
so keep on bashing McCain if you must, the voters know better.
Sep 22, 2008 - 7:09 am 9. Half Canadian:One comment on the voter turnout, it is probable that African American turnout will be higher because of Obama, so there may be a legitimate rational to changing the weighting from 2004. But this is definitely an interesting analysis. Well done to its author.
Sep 22, 2008 - 7:11 am 10. Quick Links « Jeremy’s Conservative Blog:[...] Is Obama or McCain Ahead? DEPENDS WHO YOU ASK [...]
Sep 22, 2008 - 7:17 am 11. HRPKathy:I’ve never seen an election like this one with so many unknown variables. From the closing of the gap on the generic congressional ballot which used to be double digits dem, to the changes in registration, these trends illustrate a volatile electorate not happy with either party. Add race issues, experience issues, and the fact that Americans hate to elect Senators for the WH (this year they have no choice) the electorate is forced to try something ‘new’ and in a sea of doubt about our economy, is experimentation wise?
Enter the media, the most unethically dishonest group of vipers and the greatest threat to our free republic since WWII. They’ve abandoned truth, perspective, and fairness for that other thing…. oh yeah …getting what they want. This is a true test of whether the media can dupe enough voters to pull it off. When they do report on Obama’s dishonesty the headline reads “Obama is almost as dishonest as McCain”. And it is working.
For every one of us that sees through it, there will be two people who just get the message off the top and that’s why Obama has PR people running his campaign instead of strategists. Who needs a strategy when you have free advertising, one long infomercial at every newscast and in every newspaper? All you need is message control and for the media to criticise your opponents messages and praise yours. Check.
The only trick required is for Obama to stay on message and off his favorite topic, himself, and that is what the teleprompter is for.
Voter turnout or voter fraud? Obama’s long friendly ties with this corrupt ‘voter’ organization is another variable. How broadspread is the fraud?
The polls are just another piece of misinformation. Where this election will land is anybody’s guess. The democrats this year have sank as low as I’ve ever seen it and they are prepared to go lower. Just watch.
Even if Obama wins this election he will be more unpopular than GWB in 2000, and national crisis will only make it worse for him because he cannot vote present in the WH, as he as done even as recently as the economic turmoil of last week.
Sep 22, 2008 - 7:17 am 12. bajaretired:I agree with cedarford. Both tickets lack and have a young, unqualified partisan candidate. The difference is if the Democrats win the unqualified candidate will be at the helm — if the other party wins she’ll be in the background.
Sep 22, 2008 - 7:28 am 13. chsw:Unfortunately, none of the polls take into account voters who will definitely show up – the thousands of dead, fictitious and illegal voters registered by ACORN and similar leftivists. For example, I think that there are now 250 thousand more registered voters in Cleveland than the Census shows adults over 18.
chsw
Sep 22, 2008 - 7:43 am 14. Stephanos:Turnout has been the key to Republican successes in past two presidential contests. The true significance of the Palin pick and its fallout will be seen in the turnout numbers. If the dynamic continues as it has for the past month then turnout for the Republicans will be as large as it has in the past two cycles. I see it playing out that way here in rural Missouri. Since the Palin pick, I haven’t heard the “I think, I’ll sit this one out” statement being made by self-identified Republicans.
Here in Missouri, turnout outside of St. Louis and Kansas City has been crucial to Republican success and they’ve done it in the past as they are at the current time on a minimal budget by relying on grassroots volunteers; so the effect on the “spirit” of these volunteers simply can not be underestimated and it has been charged up, from what I can see, since the naming of Palin. If the vote outside the cities stays down the Democrats win; if not, then Republicans can and probably will win. This has particular significance in the statewide race for governor – an open seat. Nationwide polls do not capture state by state dynamics like those in a battleground state like Missouri.
Sep 22, 2008 - 8:25 am 15. Joseph Marshall:Oh now, come on, doesn’t anybody on the PJM staff pull up links and read them? The Gallup daily results are compiled for rolling 3 day intervals and the party identifications by fixed weekly intervals. These samples are two different sets of data which cannot be directly compared to one another.
A weekly sample would be the sum of all interviewed that week [minimally 7000]. Each “Daily” sample is the sum of the last three days [minimally 3000]; each actual daily score [minimally 1000] is compiled 3 separate times; and a “weekly” equivalent would compile day 2 and 6 only twice and day 1 and 7 only once [minimally 21,000!].
Moreover, Wizbang arbitrarily chooses one day’s Gallup daily compilation to represent the entire week’s daily polling! Clearly he didn’t read his link either.
There is no mention of “weighting” by Gallup in either set of results, and even if there were, there is no indication that the internals are not “weighted” also, or are not “weighted” differently from the Daily.
So this is Wizbang’s “explanation”: Between one week and the next in the Daily tracking poll, “Gallup has significantly increased the proportional weight of Democrat response and reduced the weight of Republican response.”
If you read how Gallup consistently analyses the results, this is patently absurd. The Daily is a “tracking” poll designed to show the state of the race through time by keeping the questions and the sampling techniques the same from day to day. Changing any “weighting” or even using any “weighting” at all would obliterate the poll’s validity for this purpose.
Party identification also changes through time and there is nothing in the tracking poll to measure this and change the weighting from day to day. Even if there were, each set of changes would statistically contaminate the other, rendering both useless in a tracking poll.
Also, if Gallup changed the weighting for Monday’s phone calls, then the 3 day rolling results for Monday and Tuesday would be unresolvably skewed.
Finally, the “party identification” candidate choices seldom, if ever, add up to 100% of each identification category–so the interaction between them is not Obama or McCain–it is Obama or McCain or No Choice. Nor is there any way to tell whether any given weekly sample uses the same internal standards to self-identify as “liberal” “moderate” or “conservative”. So there would be absolutely no way to reliably compare the figures even if they were commensurate samples.
This is more than an attempt to compare apples to oranges. This is a comparison of apples to walnuts. And any attempt to conclude anything from it is ridiculous.
Sep 22, 2008 - 9:39 am 16. fdarcy:But does Gallup artificially weight its numbers by party id? I thought that they had actually been criticized in the past for not doing so, thus allowing party id % to vary with different random samples. (The counterargument to that criticism would of course be that there is no reliable way to know what the party id weighting should be, so it is a mistake to try.)
Sep 22, 2008 - 10:47 am 17. Frank Logan:I’ll repeat the comment made on another thread of PM. Most people can’t see the forest for the trees. Everbody is focused on todays’ poll, the economy, the infantile MSM Palin smears, etc., and they’re not seeing the big picture. This race is basically about Obama. Some people see him as a young, charismatic, hope for change. Others, who have researched his past, clearly see Obama’s inexperience as well as his 20 year associations with the racist Rev. Wright, the terrorist, William Ayers, and the crook, Tony Rezko. Obama is viewed by many as an extreme liberal who quietly promotes “Economic Justice”, a euphemism for socialism. INVESTOR’S BUSINESS DAILY
Sep 22, 2008 - 11:40 am 18. Frank Logan:http://www.investors.com/editorial/editorialcontent.asp?sec id=1501&status=article&id=302137342405551
The problem for Obama is that so many Hillary democrats see him as the latter. During the primaries, Hillary exposed the real Obama. In addition, many of her supporters are very angry about the way Obama’s supporters manipulated the caucuses during the primaries. The democratic party is split and the anger is real and runs deep. Independents are breaking for McCain 46% to 31% http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,420361,00.html in the latest Fox News Poll. In my humble opinion, the election is going to be a landslide for McCain-Palin. Prediction: McCain 350 electoral votes (+/-10) to 190 for Obama (+/-10). November 5th will tell whether I’m right or not.
Fix the link http://www.investors.com/editorial/editorialcontent.asp?secid=1501&status=article&id=302137342405551
Sep 22, 2008 - 11:50 am 19. morton from vienna:Again Miniter shoots crapola out of his a$$ mccain is not a maverick he’s just more of the same. Faux news decides then it reports. Bush stole the election twice and should be prosecuted. And of course now miniter expects us to believe mccain, who republicans call a maverick in order to have a chance in this yearselections, will make change since he’s such a wasp. You racist bigotted jerks!!
Sep 22, 2008 - 12:30 pm 20. morton from vienna:Cedarfords illiteracy wasn’t apparent enough since he supports bush. Now its being advertised by using words like “irregardless”.
Sep 22, 2008 - 12:31 pm 21. Princess:I don’t understand why there’s so much talk about the Troopergate case against Sarah Palin and not one word about a case filed against Obama, under Obamacrimes.com, questioning his citizenship. Media chose to ignore it. I encourage people to read that as there seems to be truth and validity to that. Why would anybody vote for somebody who was a Muslim before (we are all aware about their Quran, if you do not join them, kill them) and his direct association with Socialists and Ayers, etc. He launched his Presidential campaign in the office of Ayers but THE MEDIA IS GIVING HIM A PASS. Name one good accomplishment of this guy and nobody can mention one and suddenly he is the darling of everybody, A MEDIA CREATED CANDIDATE. HOW DID AMERICA SINK THIS LOW? Because Americans only read what’s fed to them. How Sad! America is the greatest country in the whole wide world. People here are compassionate and it is inherent for Americans to believe in people. WAKE UP AMERICA! IT IS NEVER TOO LATE! PLEASE RESEARCH AND READ BEFORE VOTING. THE MAJORITY OF MEDIA IS SUCH A DISGRACE. IT IS NO LONGER JOURNALISM.
Sep 22, 2008 - 12:44 pm 22. concerned:Hey, morton from vienna –
You haven’t posted a single true thing about George W. Bush or John McCain. Hope you don’t electrocute yourself by drooling on your keyboard.
Sep 22, 2008 - 1:12 pm 23. KHL:Here’s the prediction that everyone will be going back to for years to come. McCain wins the election and Palin steps into the presidency within 6 months of inauguration.
Sep 22, 2008 - 1:23 pm 24. Stephanos:Oh what the hell . . . why not?
@Morton from Vienna
(Ahem) And you know that all those here with whom you disagree, and presumably a large part of the American public, are, in your words, “racist bigoted jerks”, exactly how?
Sep 22, 2008 - 1:37 pm 25. Mike:The election will come down to whether or not McCain and his supporters will be able to overcome the Obama noise machine and his puppets in the major media.
If Americans learn the true story of the mortgage mess they will vote for McCain.
Clinton and the Community Reinvestment Act forced lenders to makes loans to unqualified borrowers. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac enabled the loans and were run into the ground by Franklin Raines and James Johnson who now advise Obama. Republican attempts to reform the industry blocked by Democrats such as Chris Dodd and Barney Frank who are major recipients of campaign contributions from Fannie and Freddie.
The lesson here is government meddling distorts markets. We now have 10 million excess houses and nobody to buy them. Prices have to fall until they are sold and equilibrium returns to the markets.
The amazing thing is the gall of the liberal Democrats who caused the mess with their social engineering to call for even more meddling.
Sep 22, 2008 - 2:21 pm 26. JJM:I’m with Cedarford.
It’s interesting that, for an economic crisis that has been coming to a boil for more than a year now, neither Obama nor McCain has had much to say about it.
I suggest they do not know much more than anyone else about just what happened and exactly what to do about it.
So much for inside-the-Beltway experience and fancy Ivy League edjamacation.
Sep 22, 2008 - 5:46 pm 27. Don Meaker:Morton, perhaps if the Democrats stop running Eco-nuts ,traitors, and Chicago machine thugs, we might vote for them.
Sep 22, 2008 - 5:54 pm 28. proud elitist:There are many pols out there.
From Daily Kos today:
Obama McCain MoE +/- RV/LV
Research 2000: 49 43 3 LV
Diageo/Hotline: 45 44 3.2 RV
Rasmussen: 48 47 2 LV
Gallup: 49 45 2 RV
From Real Clear Politics; the average of 7 polls looks like this:
Obama McCain Spread
RCP Average 09/09 – 09/21 — 48.1 45.4 Obama +2.7
From fivethirtyeight.com:
Obama (50.3) McCain (47.9) — Popular
Obama (311.5) McCain (226.5) — Electoral
Here’s more of a spread by demographics linked: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html
Sep 22, 2008 - 5:58 pm 29. ProgMeister:@888
McCain has an independent streak in him and votes for what he believes is right for the country — meaning he isn’t beholden to any one person, party or special interest group.
hell, McCain isn’t beholden to what McCain said yeasterday
Sep 22, 2008 - 7:45 pm 30. ProgMeister:Unfortunately, none of the polls take into account voters who will definitely show up
yeah, the one on November 4th does, and you guys are NOT going to like the outcome
Sep 22, 2008 - 8:04 pm 31. ProgMeister:@Frank Logan
Everbody is focused on todays’ poll, the economy, the infantile MSM Palin smears, etc., and they’re not seeing the big picture.
we see it Frank … we see it
This race is basically about Obama.
well, it is worth talking about the next President, no?
Others, who have researched his past, clearly see Obama’s inexperience as well as his 20 year associations with the racist Rev. Wright, the terrorist, William Ayers, and the crook, Tony Rezko.
Obama is viewed by many as an extreme liberal who quietly promotes “Economic Justice”, a euphemism for socialism. INVESTOR’S BUSINESS DAILY
LOL! can you say “700 billion bailout” ?? and Paulson wants NO review of the bill or implementation of it … too mucking fuch; you wouldn’t know socialism if it stood up and kicked you in the groin, Frank
Sep 22, 2008 - 8:12 pm 32. joannis franklin:You misunderstand something. Independents don’t like Palin because she is a conservative (she worked quite bi-partisanly in Alaska – you don’t become 80% approval by being on the Far Right!). They like her because she is genuine, honest, took on corruption, sincere in her faith, positive and pleasant – and a thoroughly charismatic woman. They were just glad that McCain didn’t pick someone on the Far Right – like Romney pretends (and lies) to be….they prefer Sarah Palin’s character and honesty over Romney’s…
Sep 22, 2008 - 9:24 pm 33. rosie:I didn’t realize that polls were weighted. Your poll numbers are closer to what I think will happen on election night. The meida is going to blame the huge discrepancy between the actual results and he polls on the Bradley effect – and they are already planting the seed by saying one third of white democratic voters are racist. I’m sure they have done their homework and have the unweighted numbers as well. Our country will survive the turmoil of a Obama defeat better if the media were truthful about current poll numbers.
Sep 23, 2008 - 7:21 am 34. Frank Logan:Here’s your Realitycheq. Poll: Obama struggling to win over Clinton voters
Today, Alan Fram & Trevor Tompson report on a AP-Yahoo poll that shows 28% of Hillary supporters now support McCain, up from 21%. That is 5 million Hillary suporters voting for McCain. In 2004, Bush beat Kerry by 4 million votes. The problem that supporters of Clinton, the New York senator, have with Obama seems to flow from their measure of him as a candidate, not from issues. I stand by my remarks made yesterday @11:40
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20080923/D93CC8A80.html
Sep 23, 2008 - 11:47 am 35. ProgMeister:@Frank Logan
Here’s your Realitycheq. Poll: Obama struggling to win over Clinton voters
Hey, knucklehead, here’s what you left out from that AP-Yahoo Poll .. the stuff that counts of course:
After the presidential election in November, which of the following would you prefer?
Barack Obama as president and Democrats controlling the Congress 45
Barack Obama as president and Republicans controlling the Congress 5
John McCain as president and Democrats controlling the Congress 13
John McCain as president and Republicans controlling the Congress 33
Refused / Not Answered 4
If the 2008 general election for President were being held today and these were the candidates, would
you vote for…
Barack Obama, the Democrat 40
Sep 23, 2008 - 1:15 pm 36. ProgMeister:John McCain, the Republican 35
Bob Barr, the Libertarian 1
Ralph Nader, the independent 2
Someone else (specify) 3
Don’t know 18
Refused / Not Answered 0
@all
just another little factoid for Mr. Logan to chew on:
“Mr. Obama received $75 million from women — that’s 47 percent of those who gave more than $200 to the campaign. Mr. McCain, the Republican nominee, raised $34 million from female contributors, 28 percent of his $200-plus donor base.”
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/09/23/womens-campaign-giving-on-the-rise/
Sep 23, 2008 - 1:56 pm 37. ProgMeister:http://wcf.3cdn.net/3ba2b8d619e665e313_8zm6bt9f0.pdf
@Princess
I don’t understand why there’s so much talk about the Troopergate case against Sarah Palin
because there’s an ongoing investigation in the State of Alaska perhaps? an investigation that Palin and her husband are stonewalling on
and not one word about a case filed against Obama, under Obamacrimes.com, questioning his citizenship. Media chose to ignore it.
they have a pretty good nose for bullshit; and, right now, all there is is a civil complaint from one Philip Berg
Why would anybody vote for somebody who was a Muslim before (we are all aware about their Quran, if you do not join them, kill them) and his direct association with Socialists and Ayers, etc.
Princess, this is where you undermine your credibility entirely; you have as much evidence that Obama was a Muslim as Phil Berg has that Obama is ineligible to be President: NONE
Anyway, no point in getting your panties in an uproar; Obama’s answer is due tomorrow and the FEC’s is due Oct 21 … if Phil should somehow manage to prevail (assuming he actually has standing to sue), you can petition your representatives to have him impeached, ok?
Meanwhile, the most likely outcome of this “case” is dismissal and richly deserved sanctions for Mr. Berg under Federal Rule 11; hopefully the court will require that he pay them out of his own pocket instead of allowing the RNC to underwrite the effort
Sep 23, 2008 - 4:01 pm 38. CoolCzech:You’re trying to convince yourself of that AWFUL hard, hopalong. Got news for you: McCain is going to beat that scrawny, jug-eared political hack from the Chicago Democratic Machine like a rented donkey. The only Messiah routine ol’ Barry is gonna do after that will be registering the dead, just like old times…
Sep 23, 2008 - 6:32 pm 39. nlcatter:Troopergate case against Sarah Palin is about malfeance in office
there is no state case against Obama,
Sep 23, 2008 - 9:11 pm 40. ProgMeister:just some neocon trying to get in National Enquirer
@CoolCzech
You’re trying to convince yourself of that AWFUL hard, hopalong. Got news for you: McCain is going to beat that scrawny, jug-eared political hack from the Chicago Democratic Machine like a rented donkey.
the data and sentiment indicators are convincing me, pal … you, on the other hand, are just frantically denying that your old, washed up POW who’s out making a fool of himself can’t pull this off … based on nothing
when you don’t like what you see before your eyes, you just scream “MSM” … ok, you can do that until November 4th
Sep 24, 2008 - 7:04 am 41. ProgMeister:@HRPKathy
Even if Obama wins this election he will be more unpopular than GWB in 2000, and national crisis will only make it worse for him because he cannot vote present in the WH, as he as done even as recently as the economic turmoil of last week.
well, good for you … at least you’re starting to prepare for the new realities; you’re not doing a very good job of it, but you’ll improve with age
Sep 24, 2008 - 10:37 am 42. Jeff:What people don’t understand is why some of us are so against the current Republican ticket, but we have an obligation to fight against history of ever being repeated again. Many of us out here are not fighting for the Democratic campaign but are fighting against an ideology.
1) An ideology that completely mirrors the ideology of this past 8 years.
2) An ideology that recognizes the few while completely disregarding the masses.
3) An ideology that believes in taking military action against Iraq, an incident that is completely unrelated to 9/11, without solidifying our claims beforehand. In the present, we have found no evidence of weapons of mass destructions or a tie to Osama Bin Laden. The devastation of this war has cost us over 4,000 of our brave troops and counting, over 1/2 trillion dollars of taxpayer’s money and counting, and over 1 million Iraqi lives unrelated to the terrorists or insurgency.
Cost of the Iraq War — http://www.nationalpriorities.org/costofwar_home
4) An ideology that still believes that the Iraq War is the right war on terrorism when the Afghanistan War should had been the right war on terrorism, where Osama Bin Laden actually was until he slipped into the mountains and into Pakistan’s territory now. The Iraq War also diverted our attention away from the Afghanistan War. We now have extended our resources in two separate places and have heightened our risk to our troops, our expenses, and creating another dilemma that will take quite some time to finalize. The Iraq War will not go away overnight and it is now our obligation to see it all the way through for God knows how many more years. This has also been the most unpopular war in the eyes of the world’s communities.
5) An ideology that believes that we are at our safest state since 9/11, when a recent terrorist plot was still trying to enter Great Britain’s airports with liquid explosives heading directly to us, but thankfully the plot was foiled. While in Afghanistan, the terrorists are regrouping and strengthening and we have recently suffered another high casualty to our troops yet again within this past month. We currently have the least amount of alliances in the world’s communities due to this unpopular Iraq War. True national securities are the ties that bind us to our world’s communities and the ties that bind them to us.
6) An ideology that vetted one of the most inexperience VP ticket in history, from foreign policies to national defense. If God forbids that anything happens to this President if elected and is stricken with illness, this VP will be running the country. For a more compelling look at Sarah Palin’s VP readiness, please look at this link below —
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=loUHRv3ipLE
7) An ideology that believes in “the fundamentals of our economy are strong” while we are facing the highest mortgage foreclosure crisis, high unemployment rate, and the largest collapse of our financial infrastructures since The Great Depression of 1929.
This is an ideology that many of us in America are against. Whether this ideology is in the Republican or Democratic ticket is not the main issue but the fact is that America does not want to fall into another 4 more years of devastation. We cannot afford this anymore.
Sep 24, 2008 - 3:58 pm 43. lee:“the fundamentals of our economy are strong”
John Mccain followed that up with a “…but this is a tough time for us” I believe.
Once again, the great fall of financial instutitions has to do with America’s inefficient, bloated way to running the economy than any ideology. If the banks exercised sound judgment in their lending practices, we don’t have this problem.
Sep 25, 2008 - 1:42 am 44. Richard:I became very skeptical of polling in 2000 when the Battleground Polls showed Bush ahead when Gore actually won the popular vote by 250,000. How much the bad exit polls by Mitofsky and company skewed the election results we will never know. The exit polling completely lost its credibility in 2004 when they showed Kerry in a dead heat in Mississippi in the early returns.
Sep 25, 2008 - 8:00 amJust as major accounting firms lost their credibility with phony numbers, I think the pollsters are plugging rubbish into their mathematical formulas. I no longer believe their samples are truly random anymore. Moreover, I don’t believe their .05 levels of confidence are mathematically valid; it is at least double. It’s simple: they don’t know what they are talking about and we don’t really know what’s going to happen.