Roger’s Rules

April 17th, 2008 5:36 am

Is a nuclear attack on Washington Inevitable?

Is this helpful? A nuclear attack on Washington, DC is “inevitable” according to Cham E. Dallas, director of the Institute for Health Management and Mass Destruction Defense at the University of Georgia, who spoke before a Senate Committee on Homeland Security. “I think it’s wistful to think that it won’t happen by 20 years.” (H/T Instapundit.)

Maybe it’s wistful, i.e. “full of melancholy yearning, longing pensively” to think otherwise. But does even the director of the Institute for Health Management and Mass Destruction Defense know that such a horror is “inevitable,” i.e., “incapable of being avoided or prevented”? Of course not. Of course, it might happen. And I’d even agree with Mr. Dallas that the proliferation of nuclear weapons increases the odds. But “inevitable” is a strong, indeed an irresponsible word, a word that smacks of fear-mongering and unhelpful scare tactics. I suspect Mr. Dallas is like a doctor who looks at the world through the eyes of his speciality: if your a dermatologist of a certain temperament, all of humanity looks like a skin disease waiting to happen. And if you are a director of an Institute for Health Management and Mass Destruction Defense, you are likely to over estimate the chances of mass destruction. Sure, we should prepare for the worst, but we should also realize that historical inevitability is a Hegelian-Marxist fantasy, unbecoming of adult speculation about the real world.

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10 Comments

1. Claudio Veliz:

Individuals in positions of authority – governmental and academic – are known also for conjuring subtle as well as oblique radiations to help ensure their tenure.

Apr 17, 2008 - 6:27 am 2. Don L:

Of course this is little more than what we had in the late forties and early fifties with a-bomb shelters the normal talk and practice hiding under our desks in school.

I would rather have this than the three monkees response of the left to Jihad.

Apr 17, 2008 - 6:58 am 3. patrick neid:

You are too kind in your treatment of him.

He’s clearly a certified idiot validating his job in front of the certification crew. Jeez, just look at his job title.

But I’m going to cut him some slack what with Heston just passing he probably saw the reruns of the Ape series and was profoundly struck with the Statue of Liberty. Voila! He thought he pass off some life imitates art and no one would notice.

Anyway we know he’s wrong. DC will be under 23′ of water by then!

Apr 17, 2008 - 4:36 pm 4. T. J. Babson:

Yes–despite the hyperbole–it is helpful. There should be some sort of plan in place if Washington does get hit. Sadly, if the problem is not framed as some sort of crisis, it is unlikely that any preparations will be made.

Apr 18, 2008 - 3:45 am 5. T. J. Babson:

Apr 18, 2008 - 3:46 am 6. dan:

I think the inevitability wasn’t so much a recourse to false philosophy as a reflection that the components for assembling a technologically rather crude 10-kiloton device are so common among certain “nations” and Wash DC so throbbing a target in so many diseased minds that the burden ought rather to be shifted to those who Don’t think it’s inevitable. I’m in the inevitable camp – not for philosophical reasons, mostly rather due to a long stare at the jihadist and his Russian backers.

Apr 18, 2008 - 5:11 am 7. John N. Frary:

This prediction might be useful if it helped shift the debate from Iraq and the hunt for OBL back to the larger questions of national security where it belongs.

But that’s not going to happen.

Apr 19, 2008 - 9:23 am 8. Buddy McCloskey:

Picking up where the NAVY left off, we are updating the most sophistated
Radio Active Fallout Model for the US to date. The original authors from NOAA’s ESSA and retired US Naval Weather Officers are assisting in what all they know from the Nevada test site and other sources. This model will be updated every 3 hours for our US major cities. Do not depend on historical wind patterns. Updated winds are crucial. Check out the web site referenced with the Bible Verses, George Washington and our Modern Day Prophet’s visions of this for the US.

Those interested can read the scientific math modules being incorporated and may be able to add some recent info that could be programmed.

Apr 19, 2008 - 9:45 am 9. Yale Alum:

Nothing is inevitable other than death. AQ would no doubt love to wreck the District (or other major U.S. city, Ottawa, London or Paris) with a nuclear device, but they still need to find a warhead to carry out such a mission. Our mission is to prevent that from happening by relentlessly hunting down AQs operators and leaders and helping Pakistan to secure its nuclear arsenal.

Apr 21, 2008 - 10:49 pm 10. John:

But you’re tslking like thst would be s bsd thing!

May 2, 2008 - 2:53 pm