Roger’s Rules

June 15th, 2008 11:33 am

Obama: inevitable until it didn’t happen

Blogging isn’t prophecy. It isn’t even a decent English word. Still, the triumphant (or, if you belong to the other team, as I do, the anguished) certainty of the prognostications that Obama has the election sewn up in suede on a silver platter makes me wish it were. Prophecy, I mean. How often in the last couple of weeks have you read something like this:

One week into the general election, the polls show a dead heat. But many presidential scholars doubt that John McCain stands much of a chance, if any.

Well, isn’t that just too bad for “many presidential scholars”? You know those little advertisements that come with mutual funds and other financial instruments: “Past results are no guarantee of future performance,” etc.? Why should Citibank have to waste ink printing that everywhere in sight when “experts” indulge in that very same legerdemain 5 times daily before breakfast?

Now, I am perfectly prepared to admit that Barack Obama might win. Bad things do happen to good countries. But the euphoric (or, as I say, melancholy) certitude that seems to have gripped both sides of the political spectrum seems to me little more than a sudden upsurge of insanity. Sometimes when you are listening to the radio while driving down the road (though not, of course, in one of those gas-guzzling SUVs Obama told us we shouldn’t be driving) all of a sudden you’ll drive through a bad spot and the sound from the radio will get A LOT LOUDER as the tuner oscillates madly between two or more stations.

That, I believe, is an appropriate image for what is going on in the reporting about Obama. Keep track. Come early November (and maybe earlier), I predict you’ll be hearing a very different song. And then, if I am right, there will be the endless post-mortems: lots and lots of handwringing to explain why the inevitable didn’t happen (I can reveal now that the chief cause will be the inveterate “racism” of all those millions who didn’t vote for Obama).

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10 Comments

1. SK:

Great column, though I believe I found a mistake. Barack Obama is no longer to be referred to as, “Obama,” but rather, “The Obama.”

Jun 15, 2008 - 1:16 pm 2. JW:

I pray that Mr. Kimball is correct and Senator McCain wins this November.

However, this eerily reminds me of the ‘92 presidential election. An aging, Republican war hero with a history of trying to please the left vs. the immature, narcissistic, double-talking, lying socialist championed by the MSM. Even Ross Perot has been acting up lately! I just hope the outcome is not the same.

Also, sometimes it seems that Senator McCain’s campaign is just as incompetent as George Bush’s ’92 re-election campaign. If he cannot capitalize on B. Hussein Obama’s support of the Supreme Court’s suicidal decision in favor of terrorists then Sen. McCain deserves to lose.

For 8 years, the Clinton administration ignored Islamic terrorist attacks, coddled these same terrorists and actively supported our enemies. Then we ended up with thousands of Americans murdered on 9/11. How will the U.S. (or Israel) fare with a President B. Hussein Obama “talking” with terrorists like Ahmadinejad or Kim Jong-Il?

Jun 15, 2008 - 4:39 pm 3. Richard F.:

Mr. Kimball: What is fascinating here is how undeterred are the fabricators of narrative by their own track record. This has been a perilous year for prognostication. For example, exit polling, once thought to be virtually foolproof (after all, they’ve already voted, haven’t they?) has been the undoing of this season’s generation of pundits. Likewise, predictions for primary results have been often been wildly inaccurate.

I think most scholars look back on statistical data on national data that strongly suggests that the same party is usually unsuccessful in succeeding itself for three White House terms. This is fool’s gold because it is premised on the notion that the past will predict the future. Why this is a trap can be understood simply by differentiating past from present events: they are unique, and dining out on historical analogies generally yields a meager dinner.

There is another way to understand this–the fallacy of induction, noted by Nicholas Taleb in The Black Swan: a turkey has every reason to believe that Thanksgiving Day will resemble exactly the 364 preceding days–abundant food and water and first rate care. Not always so. And this year, because the Democrats nominated not only the first African-American candidate, but also (perhaps, depending on one’s views of George McGovern) the first moderate core leftist candidate in U.S. history, there are plenty of historical differentiators that suggest either that, 1), the future may not resemble the past, or 2), Thanksgiving may come early this November.

Jun 16, 2008 - 12:08 am 4. Steve Skubinna:

I believe it was Cato the Elder who wondered how one soothsayer could look another in the face without laughing.

How many of the “inevitable Obama” crowd previously were solemnly intoning Hillary’s inevitability?

Jun 16, 2008 - 12:27 am 5. Nota Bene: Today’s Reading Assignment « PoliSci@UST:

[...] Obama: inevitable until it didn’t happen – Roger Kimball, Roger’s Rules Blog [...]

Jun 16, 2008 - 2:58 am 6. Richard Rubinstein:

I tend to agree the “political experts” are wrapping things up nicely- – months before the election, and before the November narrative is known. A day is a lifetime in politics.

Come November who knows what we will be talking about–maybe Afghanistan and Pakistan or India/Pak relations go sour, ok, worsen from where they are now; maybe there is a war bet I/P or Israel and Iran or whomever; North Korea (once Olympic are over China “ain’t going to cooperate with us in dealing with ‘nut-thing’”; Russia (whose foreign policy is to keep oil prices high); Iran; Israel/PLA; Bin Laden/Al Qaeda; or Iraq. Well, you all get the point.

That said, and it pains me to say this, all things being equal Obama is likely to win. I can point to many factors, as to why this is: admittedly none substantive.

But things do not tend to be equal. The election is far from decided, but advantage Obama.

Mr. Roger: “Bad things happen to good countries.” darn good line. You are obviously paraphrasing that famous book of about 30 yrs ago by A Rabbi who lost a child: “why bad things happen to good people.”

To anyone who has not read it, that book is still good read today.

Jun 16, 2008 - 6:25 am 7. Ash E:

I think you’re quite right on how this election campaign will go Roger. McCain’s barely started, and when he’s all warmed up, it’ll be much harder for Obama.

Jun 17, 2008 - 1:14 am 8. Richard:

Most American historians are partisan hacks, usually of the Trotskyist persuasion. They, like Chris Matthews, feel twitches running up their leg at the thought of an Obama victory. Of course, nobody ever goes back after the election and dissects these frauds.

Jun 17, 2008 - 7:48 am 9. Roger’s Rules » Obama and the Eternal Return:

[...] “Poor chump, don’t you see it’s inevitable?” Like so many things, it was inevitable until it didn’t happen. That’s one reason I dislike this constant recourse to polls–weekly, daily, hourly [...]

Oct 28, 2008 - 5:47 am 10. Amused Cynic » Blog Archive » “Like so many things, it was inevitable until it didn’t happen”…:

[...] me sadly and said, “Poor chump, don’t you see it’s inevitable?” Like so many things, it was inevitable until it didn’t happen. That’s one reason I dislike this constant recourse to polls–weekly, daily, hourly polls, polls, [...]

Oct 28, 2008 - 8:05 am