Roger’s Rules

August 9th, 2008 12:10 pm

“The moral influence which may be a powerful force with civilized countries is unlikely to to make an impression . . .”

Yesterday, 8/8/08, will be remembered not because it was the date that the so-called “Mainstream Media” were finally forced by the National Inquirer’s scoop to deal with the sordid news of John Edwards’s mendacious implosion. That story will soon be relegated to the oblivious archive that contains footage of his “I feel pretty” hair-combing routine. (Oblivious? Well, maybe not: the referenced YouTube clip reports more than 1,200,000 views.) No, future historians will not pause long over the squalid Mr. Edwards. Some may draw comparisons between the spectacle laid on by China at the opening of the Olympic Games in Beijing yesterday and an earlier Olympic spectacle that convened in Berlin in 1936. Repressive regimes with dismal human-rights records and untidy international ambitions may nevertheless excel at histrionic displays of self-obliterating pomp. Just ask Leni Riefenstahl.

But I suspect that in the years to come what most historians–and perhaps the rest of us, too–will think of when we hear the date August 8, 2008 is not China, and certainly not old what’s-his-name with the hair, the mistress, and pathetic claims of being “99 percent honest“. What we’ll think of is the country of Georgia and we’ll realize that August 8 was the date when Russia began reassembling the former Soviet empire in earnest.

When Russian tanks and troops poured into the separatist Georgian province of South Ossetia yesterday, it was not, as Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said, part of a “peacekeeping mission.” It was part of an imperialist mission whose undeclared goal is to reabsorb the whole of Georgia–West-leaning Georgia with its critical oil pipeline supplying energy to an increasingly thirsty Europe–into mother Russia.

Indeed, that pipeline is the unacknowledged key to the drama–unacknowledged, anyway, by the belligerents. As an AP story notes, the “U.S.-backed oil pipeline runs through Georgia, allowing the West to reduce its reliance on Middle Eastern oil while bypassing Russia and Iran.” A good thing for the West; but is such autonomy something Russia (or, for that matter, Iran) wants to encourage? Indeed, as I write, Reuters has issued an unconfirmed report that earlier today Russia attacked not only targets in South Ossetia but also targeted “the major Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline.”

The whole drama as the eerie sense of history repeating itself. The London Times today carries an article about “The Revolt in Georgia”–not the one unfolding before our eyes, but the revolt against Soviet occupation in September 1924. The Soviets had initially recognized Georgia’s independence in the wake of the First World War, but occipied the country in 1921 and brutally put down the revolt that erupted three years later. At the time, the president of Georgia made an appeal to the League of Nations. The Times reports that although “sympathetic reference” to Georgia was made in the assembly, “it is realized that the League is incapable of rendering material aid and the moral influence which may be a powerful force with civilized countries is unlikely to to make an impression upon Soviet Russia.”

That was in 1924. What sort of impression do you suppose the “moral influence” of the successor institution to the League of Nations, the U.N., is likely to have on the uncivilized successor to the U.S.S.R.?

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38 Comments

1. Bob White:

And Ukraine could be next…

Aug 9, 2008 - 1:32 pm 2. swift boater:

O the agony, if only it had waited until Jan 23, 2009 when the Messiah was in power all would have been sweetness and light. Now with Bush in charge they are doomed!

Aug 9, 2008 - 1:58 pm 3. War News Updates:

Regardless of what it was that has brought us to this point, what we now know for sure is that the Russian Bear is now angry, its citizens are probably 95% in support of their government, and it will only be Russia’s friends and allies that can influence its behavior. The U.N. will have no role in ending this conflict.

We also now know that Georgia seriously underestimated the Russian and Ossetian response to their attempts in reestablishing their authority, the U.S. Intelligence Services and State Department were asleep (even with over 100 U.S. military advisers in Georgia)with what was happening in the region, and that by threatening to shut down of the BTC oil pipeline we may end up with record oil prices within a week and a recession around the corner.

Again …. poor intelligence, lack of strategic thinking, and an absence of leadership has brought us to where we are today. From where I stand, it seems as if we gave the Caucasus back to Russia with no strings attached.

Aug 9, 2008 - 2:00 pm 4. South Ossetia « Twisted One 151’s Weblog:

[...] South Ossetia As the conflict in South Ossetia heats up, with Tbilisi bombed by Russian planes, a number of people have begun discussing both the issues involved and why this conflict matters to us here in the West. As to the first point, see here, here, and here; and on the latter point, see here and here. Further, another blogger asks why the John Edwards affair revelation is getting more media attention than the South Ossetia situation, considering Georgia had the third largest force contribution in Iraq (after the US and UK), but is pulling them back to deal with Russia. Roger Kimball has opined along similar lines. [...]

Aug 9, 2008 - 2:10 pm 5. Blather. Wince. Repeat. » Blog Archive » 08/08/08:

[...] You can read the whole thing here. [...]

Aug 9, 2008 - 2:13 pm 6. Rob:

No worries. We’re all ascending to heaven as soon as Obama gets elected, right?

Aug 9, 2008 - 2:22 pm 7. Letalis Maximus, Esq.:

The UN isn’t going to do a damned thing. But. Then. What do you ever gain by stating the obvious?

Aug 9, 2008 - 2:51 pm 8. Jbl:

Obama is as prepared to deal with Russia and a blossoming Soviet Union (and an empowered China) as my puppy. McCain is marginally better prepared. We’re in the soup.

Aug 9, 2008 - 2:56 pm 9. Steynian 219 « Free Mark Steyn!:

[...] BLOOD FOR OIL FO’ REAL– “When Russian tanks and troops poured into the separatist Georgian province of South [...]

Aug 9, 2008 - 3:34 pm 10. chuck,:

Practically speaking, what can we do? The Europeans are totally dependent on Russian gas, so they can’t act even if they wanted to. As for us, if the Pakistan supply routes to Afghanistan were lost to us, we would have to go begging the Russians to use their territory. We’re in no position to do the right thing for Georgia, and I am thinking back to the last chopper off the embassy roof 33 years ago. I feel dirty tonight and no hot shower will help.

Aug 9, 2008 - 3:40 pm 11. Rix:

This is payback for Kosovo. The Russians warned us that if we supported the dismemberment of Serbia, we might not like where that trend ended up.

So from their eyes, who are we to complain about bombing Georgia and occupying Ossetia after we bombed Serbia and occupyied Kosovo?

Aug 9, 2008 - 3:50 pm 12. really:

this is what passes for intelligent commentary? does the small matter that georgia initiated the current round of fighting make even a bit of difference? how would you imagine the united states would respond if mexico had blown up 15 of our troops and wounded over a 100 others. do you think we’d “commit to restraint” or do you think we’d light up every target we could find?
pure unadulturated trash, no wonder the country is going to hell and the democrats are poised for historic victories.

Aug 9, 2008 - 3:57 pm 13. Alan Kellogg:

How things may go whereto the U.S. and the Russia/Georgia War can be answered by one event, the dispatching of American support to Georgia.

The Iraqis are taking over more and more of their own defense. Azerbaijan and Turkey have a vested interest in keeping Russia far away from their borders. In the days to come expect to hear about ongoing negotiations between Georgia, Turkey, Azerbaijan, and even Iraq concerning assistance.

American combat forces go into action in Georgia it may end at that, if Russia acts sensibly. But how often does Russia act sensibly? This has every possibility of spreading far beyond the Caucasus.

Oh, before anybody points out that we have no strategic interests in Georgia, let me point out that Georgia is an ally of ours. That alone is sufficient to justify our intervention.

Aug 9, 2008 - 4:01 pm 14. Lee Hamilton:

Thank you for this dose of reality.

Aug 9, 2008 - 4:06 pm 15. Georgian Roundup - Mythusmage Opines:

[...] The Moral Influence [...]

Aug 9, 2008 - 4:28 pm 16. mik:

Jorge Boosh is well on the way to repeat Carter performance, only recession under Jorge is worse.

And what do you know, Kimbal and the rest of neo-conmen were and are urgent supporters of the Moron In Chief.

A small democratic country – our friend, is burning and the Moron is playing beach volleyball in China.

How did we end up with this cretin?
How did we end up with far left empty suit and an old senile life politician running for Prez right now?

Aug 9, 2008 - 4:32 pm 17. Cody:

I know I’m risking my well earned reputation by posting anything counter to the neoconservative proclivities of this website, but how, pray tell, will Russia reabsorb its former satellite states? Militarily? Russia can hardly keep Chechnya under control, but we expect Russia to start swallowing neighboring states one by one?

Will Russia be able to handle more Chechen-style guerrilla wars if it decides to occupy former satellite states? If Russia does decide to do such a thing, then guerrilla was is what it can expect, and Russia has not shown itself to adept at counter-insurgency warfare.

Aug 9, 2008 - 4:35 pm 18. krontekag:

So mik – presumably Jorge will be forgiven if he declares war on Russia, or at least intervenes militarily in Georgia?

Aug 9, 2008 - 5:44 pm 19. Dr.T:

Cody:

Do you recognize the term “Finlandization”?
All Russia needs to do is neutralize Georgia to deprive the US of a strategic ally in the region.

Aug 9, 2008 - 6:45 pm 20. Roger Godby:

With the income from oil and other exports as well as a well-developed military-industrial complex, Russia can (and probably will) crush Georgia, as it did over 80 years ago. I wish situation in Georgia and South Ossetia were otherwise, but then I wish neither Obama nor McCain were the nauseating choices we’re stuck with.

And I was considering visiting Georgia, the country, this September!

I haven’t heard much about Chechnya of late. Did the Russians finally kill enough people there or did they institute a successful press blackout therefrom?

Aug 9, 2008 - 7:09 pm 21. Alan Kellogg:

Cody,

Putin is not what I would call a prudent man. As with despots throughout time he assumes that other national leaders are like him, and that he can get away with doing things no rational person would even think of.

It is the mark of the fool that he always over extends himself.

Aug 9, 2008 - 7:12 pm 22. BlueRidgeForum » The Other Georgia and Our Security:

[...] his column today here, however, Roger Kimball [...]

Aug 9, 2008 - 7:31 pm 23. WVinMN:

Well, I seem to remember the Administration lobying the Europeans in an attempt to admit Georgia into NATO. Of course, the Europeans balked, Russia took notice, and, well…the result speaks for itself.

Aug 9, 2008 - 7:58 pm 24. Eunomia » Do These People Even Know What Soviet Means?:

[...] Do These People Even Know What Soviet Means? Posted on August 9th, 2008 by Daniel Larison What we’ll think of is the country of Georgia and we’ll realize that August 8 was the date when Russia began reassembling the former Soviet empire in earnest. ~Roger Kimball [...]

Aug 9, 2008 - 8:07 pm 25. SAM:

Mik, you know nothing. Carter’s recession was far worse than the our current economic state. That’s a nice bit of revisionist history.

What I remember most about Carter is that his weakness almost got me drafted when the Iranians took hostages and that the Iranians had those hostages on a plane back to the U.S. as soon as Reagan took office.

As far as your question about Bush is concerned, I offer two names: Al Gore and John Kerry, two great lightweights of all times. When planes started flying into buildings on 9/11, I was darn glad we’d elected Bush.

Aug 10, 2008 - 3:30 am 26. Roger’s Rules » The crisis in Georgis, 9/11, and the lessons of gratitude:

[...] differ widely on the international significance of Russia’s latest imperialist adventure. I regard it as a dangerous–well, “precedent” isn’t quite right, since we have done this [...]

Aug 10, 2008 - 7:52 am 27. barth:

I’m worried about a petro-funded Russian military but no matter how hard I concentrate on it I’m drawn back to puzzling out how an “implosion” can be “mendacious.”

I’m not sure that an “I Feel Pretty / Georgia on My Mind’ medley can really swing.

Aug 10, 2008 - 9:41 am 28. Roger Kimball:

A reader wonders: Can an implosion be “mendacious”?

My answer: if the person doing the imploding (i.e, enacting a “violent collapse inward”) is John “99% honest” Edwards, then the answer is Yes! The feat requires a bit metaphorical semantic transfer, but I’ve found that most people are up to the task. I hasten to add, however, that the very young, the infirm, and anyone over the age of 70 should consult his physician before attempting the exercise.

Aug 10, 2008 - 10:01 am 29. Sully:

We may not like the fact that doing anything substantive about Georgia in the face of real Russian resolve is way outside our capabilities (sort of global thermonuclear war of course) but that’s the way it is. Hopefully no one in Washington was foolish enough to assure the Georgians of anything more than moral support.

Aug 10, 2008 - 12:07 pm 30. What Do We Owe Georgia?:

[...] differ widely on the international significance of Russia’s latest imperialist adventure. I regard it as a dangerous–well, “precedent” isn’t quite right, since we have been down this road [...]

Aug 10, 2008 - 1:18 pm 31. Gary:

All these posts about “U.S. Intelligence Services and State Department were asleep”, Bush doing nothing, whether Geogria looks West or wants to be in NATO or not is irrevelevant. Russia is resurgent and that is a fact. Quite possibly as the country’s standard of living rises and its consumerist middle class grows it may become more interested in trade and commerce rather than the Imperial Russia/Soviet Union of old.

In the meantime Georgia is within Russia’s sphere of influence and the United States (and most certainly a nearly disarmed Western Europe) has as much chance to influencing events there as Russia does in the Dominican Republic or Guatemals…

Aug 10, 2008 - 1:41 pm 32. R.C.:

Hello? Illiterates? In English, “George” is spelled “George,” not “Jorge.”

Aug 10, 2008 - 2:15 pm 33. Sojerofgod:

This war was stage-managed from moscow. The Ossetian militiamen were shelling Georgian towns-where, pray tell did they get cannon? Saakashvili got suckered into responding and gave Russia the opening they needed. A tank brigade just doesn’t pack up and cross the border on 6 hours notice. It takes days to weeks to prep one for such a movement. Blaming Georgia for this is like blaming the rape victim for fighting back against her attacker.

Aug 10, 2008 - 3:26 pm 34. WebElf Report News Blog-O-Rama « The WebElf Report:

[...] BLOOD FOR OIL FO’ REAL– “When Russian tanks and troops poured into the separatist Georgian province of South [...]

Aug 10, 2008 - 4:19 pm 35. Shef Rogers:

Please don’t moralize news about the Caucasus. There is no law there. There never has been. That was the case long, long before the Soviet Union was created. There are no good guys in this story, least of all the Georgians. They made a power play, miscalculated and lost, period.

Aug 11, 2008 - 4:16 am 36. douglas Johnson:

What course has McCain suggested at this point (I’m not being rhetorical…I really don’t know)? The White House needs to come up with a response that does not hurt McCain in the election because to respond in a way that puts Obama in office would cripple our response before it even starts. Or if the best response would hurt McCain in the election, and so be it, then McCain needs to sit down with the President today over how to deal with Georgia. Of course the President is in Bejing and McCain is here.

Aug 11, 2008 - 7:49 am 37. eric:

hey, SAM – you made three statements that can’t go unchallenged:

1) the state of the economy now vs. during the carter years. it was much worse then, huh? what measure are you using? or are you just talking out of your … you know? do you have a reference for this statement?

2) you said you almost got drafted because of carter’s policies. “almost”?!? how did you almost get drafted man? that makes no sense. either you got drafted or you didn’t. there is no ‘almost’. since there was no draft, i’m going to assume you were not drafted.

3) you intimate Al Gore and John Kerry would have somehow screwed up the response to 9/11.

LMAO!!!

have you noticed we’ve spent billions of dollars attacking and occupying the country that had nothing to do with the “planes flying into buildings”? not sure how anyone could have screwed this up worse. but suggesting that the dems would have does not make it so.

sorry bud. three strikes and you’re out.

Aug 11, 2008 - 5:05 pm 38. Yun:

@Eric.

1) For one thing, during the Carter era there was an ACTUAL recession, not the “If we keep saying it’s a recession maybe people will start to believe it” we’re in now. A recession requires two consecutive quarters of negative growth. This is not happening now, and, as far as I know, has not happened since 2001, and even then it was A) a leftover from the Clinton years’ dot-com bubble, 9/11, and the Enron scandal, none of which are attibutable to the Bush administration and B) SIGNIFICANTLY minor compared Carter’s 13.5% inflation, 7.5% unemployment, and 11% interest rate. What we have currently is a SLOWDOWN, not a RECESSION.

Point 2 I will not address as I was one year old at the time.

3) Considering the Democrats’ response to every crisis is to ask the United Nations what to do, and then try to “understand” our enemies’ “grievances” then yes, I have every confidence they would have screwed up the response to 9/11.

To paraphrase Joe Lieberman, if you had your way Saddam Hussein would still be in power. You cannot convince me that the world would be better off if that was the case.

Aug 13, 2008 - 11:56 am