134 Comments

1. wxjames:

Well, Roger, I was actually in Cambodia before I was near Cambodia.

Aug 10, 2004 - 3:39 pm 2. RogerA:

Congrats on the air time, Roger! Following some of the talk shows re the swift boat thing, had any of the participants read a blog in the last 3 days they wouldnt be so damn uninformed. They miss the easy questions like the difference between the doc who treated Kerry and the Corpsman who signed the medical report–hell, any blog person knew that

Have any of our fearless fellow bloggers counted up the days JFK lite accounts for in Viet Nam? He was only on the swift boats for 4 months as I recall. He was clearly one busy SOB to do all the secret stuff in Cambodia as well as win all those awards in such a short period of time–Damn! we would be getting a real multi-tasker in the white house if he were elect

Aug 10, 2004 - 3:45 pm 3. wxjames:

Actually, Roger, I came back early so I could go to the moon with Armstrong and company. In fact, that’s where I first met Terasa.

Aug 10, 2004 - 3:57 pm 4. Charlie (Colorado):

“What, and leave show business?”

Aug 10, 2004 - 3:58 pm 5. Catherine:

OK, somebody has to do it.

Mr. President, I remember Christmas of 1968 sitting in a gunboat near, but not in, Cambodia.

I have that memory which is seared–seared–into me, that says to me, before we send another generation near, but not into, harm’s way we have a responsibility in the U.S. Senate to go the last step, to make the best effort possible to avoid that kind of conflict, the kind where you’re near, but not in, Cambodia, or Iraq, or perhaps Iran, or possibly some place else altogether. Because that kind of thing will sear you.

Aug 10, 2004 - 4:00 pm 6. Tom Holsinger:

I’d like to know what you guys have to say about the hat part of the 6/1/03 WaPo article by Laura Blumefeld.

Kerry’s people should also mention LBJ’s whoppers.

IMO these Kerryisms are more Walter Mittyish than evidence of significant psychological issues. I’d be more concerned about Kerry’s lack of judgment and prospective inability to command uniforms with lots of ribbons. LBJ had no trouble establishing who was boss. Kerry will.

Aug 10, 2004 - 4:03 pm 7. Katherine:

Catherine,

LOL!

As a matter of fact this version of the speech is quite close to what we hear those days from our dear Il Capitano.

Aug 10, 2004 - 4:08 pm 8. jdm:

You realize, I mean, c’mon, this Kerry thing has no legs. Zero. It’s not going anywhere. It’s not going to change the minds of anybody. It will not be perceived as important by most; and for those that do, the credit/blame will be on the Republican attack machine.

Both the DNC & the RNC are playing this exactly as they should: they’re “ignoring” it. The DNC knows that it’ll get the cover stories, the spin they need from the real players in the MSM (not the Washington Times or NY Post). The RNC knows (or should) that they can only look bad if they don’t keep quiet.

Note that I am not saying thio story is not important or that it is not a fine bit of evidence as to the kind of person Kerry is. I am also not trying to denigrate any of those (like our host) who are quite bothered by this. I’m just saying it doesn’t matter.

Aug 10, 2004 - 4:19 pm 9. wxjames:

Actually, Roger, I was near the moon not in the moon. Nobody was actually in the moon. Neil and Buzz were on the moon, but it’s all so blurry now.

Aug 10, 2004 - 4:22 pm 10. RogerA:

As much as I would hope otherwise, I have to agree with jdm–and add to his arguments the speed of the news cycle these days. I dont think many minds will be changed.

Aug 10, 2004 - 4:28 pm 11. John Moore ( Useful Fools ):

Tom

I would argue that it was Johnson’s psychological issues that were a big part of the problem with the Vietnam War. He believed throughout his time that the war was unwinnable, even as he escalated to 500,000 troops. That’s pretty bizarre.

That same belief may have been what led him to prosecute the war in the North so poorly. Then there’s the demand that the news all look good, which resulted in (for overdone) blowback in Tet ‘68.

Johnson was a screwed up guy, and we are still paying for it.

Aug 10, 2004 - 4:41 pm 12. Beldar:

Roger: You’re a tough act to follow! I managed to weasel in among Hugh’s callers shortly after you and Captain Ed finished up — hope you heard me convey my thanks for your link last week! You and Captain Ed were both terrific, but of course, Hugh makes everyone feel like a welcome friend (rather than just a “guest”), which makes things easier.

jdm: You could be right about none of this having legs. Former Sen. Thomas Eagleton of Missouri, may have some thoughts on that issue, or maybe Ed Muskie would. Even Howard Dean may have a take. Dunno. If you’re right, you’ll want to clear a lot of places currently on your browser’s favorites list, ’cause I suspect some of us will remember and discuss this stuff all the way through the Kerry-Edwards 2008 re-election campaign, if it comes to that.

Tom: Re the “hat part” of the WaPo article, there’s quite a bit of comment about that on Roger’s “Paging Sgt. Joe Friday!” post, from early this morning. (See the “hat tip”? Subtle, our host is, especially before dawn!) I think I tend to agree with Roger’s comment on the Hewett show — this may require years of therapy on someone’s part to sort out.

Aug 10, 2004 - 4:51 pm 13. Stan:

jdm / wxjames:

This story will get legs IF Kerry is directly asked to respond to the Cambodia episode as a key piece of evidence in his statement on the floor of the Senate: that it expressed personal experience of covert / unauthorized military activities on behalf of the NIXON administration as the danger of supporting the Contras… Noting that the Khymer Rouge were not an identifiable military unit in 1968, Nixon was not President and his statement makes NO sense if he was just “near” Cambodia rather than in it.

Would he now stipulate that he clearly had no idea what he was talking about when he was addressing the Senate?

That the story has been repeated in various forms over the years beyond his Senate speech (Op ed, story in WaPo, Review of Apoc..Now, etc…) so no way to say it was a slip of the tongue.

Someone in the MSM has to take this line of questioning…

Aug 10, 2004 - 4:55 pm 14. holdfast:

Sorry – this is slightly OT this thread, but check out the latest from the “leaders” of Iran:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2004/08/11/wiran11.xml&sSheet=/portal/2004/08/11/ixportal.html

These jokers obviously learned their lesson from North Korea and then some – or maybe they just understand the French penchant for surrendering first and asking questions later.

Aug 10, 2004 - 5:01 pm 15. Vexorg:

Hmmm… I wonder if Baghdad Bob is available? He’d probably do a better job than the guys the Kerry campaign has right now…

Aug 10, 2004 - 5:06 pm 16. Goof®:

Missed you Roger as I was listening to John and Ken plug their appearance with Pat Buchanan, guest hosting Scarborough Country on MSNBC tonight, to discuss their political human sacrifice idea.

Still content-free and loving it.

84 days to go.

Aug 10, 2004 - 5:07 pm 17. Catherine:

Well, the way to keep a story going is to bring the courts into it: something has to happen every day.

That’s why Monica Lewinsky became the HUGE story that she became. She was part of Ken Starr’s investigation.

The Swifties should sue Kerry for libel.

Or threaten to.

The other factor most here don’t seem to be remembering is that the press can and will turn on people when they’re vulnerable, Democrat or no.

Also, it takes time for reporters to absorb stories the same way it does the rest of us.

If the Swifties & the bloggers & Drudge & Fox & Rush & Sean H & O’Reilly can keep it going long enough, and they can, Kerry-in-Cambodia (as well as, let’s hope, Winter Soldier Kerry) will start to penetrate everyone’s consciousness, including the MSM’s.

Aug 10, 2004 - 5:26 pm 18. Catherine:

Or: sue him for libel and start taking depositions.

That’s the ticket.

Aug 10, 2004 - 5:27 pm 19. Catherine:

holdfast

You’ve made my day.

A letter of demands.

I love it!

Aug 10, 2004 - 5:29 pm 20. richard mcenroe:

Tom Holsinger ó The man went ashore and without provocation torched a defenseless village and machinegunned its livestock.

Is a testimonial to his mental health really warranted?

Aug 10, 2004 - 5:37 pm 21. Terrye:

Maybe this won’t make a difference. Too soon to tell.

But this election is close and if Kerry starts to look kinda incompetent/weird/shifty/oppurtunistic/ it might be enough to shake things up a little. And a little is all it will take.

Besides these guys deserve a chance to tell their story. For years Americans have been saying we were unfair to Viet Nam Vets, well here is a chance to make up for some of that. Just let them have their say.

Unless the position of the Democrat party is that the only vets who count are the ones who say the things the Dems like to hear.

Aug 10, 2004 - 5:45 pm 22. jdm:

-smirk- Good one, Beldar. I’m not sure I agree that telling phony war stories is quite the same as being hospitalized for nervous exhaustion. At least for the usual suspects in the voting booth.

On the other hand, taken together with all the other Kerry oddities that can come out (and some of which will), I think you’ll be more likely to be discussing the Clinton vs. Rice campaign of 2008 (ooh, cat fight .

Stan > Someone in the MSM has to take this line of questioning…

I read/heard this line of thought all through the 90s with Circus d’Clinton. They didn’t. You missed my point: the MSM is even now as we “speak” working to sand down the sharp corners of this item. It’s gonna go hard, but it’s going down.

I like Hewitt; I listen to Hewitt; I enjoy Hewitt; but he’s a political wonk, a Republican party lounge lizard, a cheerleader and wrong. This thing is going nowhere.

Aug 10, 2004 - 5:47 pm 23. Beldar:

By putting themselves into the political spotlight, the SwiftVets have become “public figures.” Most of the spin being put out by Kerry and his allies falls into the category of statements of opinion, rather than fact. And even allegations of pure fact would have to be proved not only false, but made with “actual malice” to permit a recovery for defamation.

So threat letters notwithstanding, nobody’s going to sue anybody in a serious way for defamation (libel or slander). If they do, almost any judge would recognize it as a ploy to conduct political warfare by other means. I doubt either side could get to the subpoena-and-deposition stage.

And actually, in a democracy, that’s exactly the way it should be. This ought to play out in the court of public affairs.

Aug 10, 2004 - 5:51 pm 24. penwil:

At this point I think it is a race to see which will happen first: whether the story will run out of steam and die in the blogosphere, or whether it will break through critical mass and become the stuff of watercooler conversations. If it is the latter then I think it might end up hurting Kerry, if for no other reason than it makes him out to be both at once a ridiculous and a pathetic individual.

Having said that, I don’t think the election will ultimately turn on it. Rather, the election will most likely be decided by events of which neither candidate will have much control over: if there are terrorists attacks in Greece during the Olympics and here at home before the election, if the economy either goes south or rebounds again during the next couple of months, and if something dramatic happens in Iraq, like the capture of Zaqr or, conversely, if the insurgency escalates to disastrous levels. And other stuff, like bin Laden being captured, or actual honest to God stockpiles of sarin gas shells being found buried in a bunker in the desert.

To a lesser extent, Bush might be able to give himself a boost if he gives a kickass speech, on the order of his post 9/11 speech, at the convention, and either candidate could always screw up enough during the debates to tilt the swing and wobbly voters.

Aug 10, 2004 - 5:53 pm 25. Catherine:

Terrye is right

ditto, ditto, ditto

Samuel has said on numerous occasions, and I’ve since read any number of polling types confirming, that people vote on leadership.

Carrying a Top Secret hat around in your attache doesn’t spell Fearless Leader to me or anyone else.

Aug 10, 2004 - 5:55 pm 26. Catherine:

I’m not sure we should all be worrying about the MSM anyway.

Fox is all over the story, and I suspect that any independent & swing voters who are actually capable of changing their minds at this point are as likely to watch Fox as CNN. (And frankly, the CNN transcript I read sounded highly respectful to the Swifties.)

A couple of weeks ago Helprin said that the two media sources that will “determine” (I think that was the word he used) this election are the NYTIMES & Drudge.

If that’s the case, Kerry’s goose is cooked.

Aug 10, 2004 - 5:58 pm 27. Catherine:

I am supposed to be packing.

However, I am not packing.

Perhaps that is because I am near, not in, my bedroom.

Aug 10, 2004 - 5:59 pm 28. Catherine:

Beldar is right, of course, though given the kind of thing that goes on in CA (I’ve been reading about 17222 again) I wouldn’t count on a judge to throw the case out.

Aug 10, 2004 - 6:01 pm 29. Beldar:

jdm: If it’d been a TV crew instead of a WaPo reporter when Kerry pulled the hat on and said, “Pow!” — well, that might have been an Eagleton/Muskie/Dean moment to be replayed and replayed and replayed and ….

It’s only the reading public (and a small segment of that) who will ever appreciate the weirdness of that story.

The grueling detail of the SwiftVets’ indictment — the .pdf scans of the affidavits, the dates and names, the documents — will slice off some thin layer of the electorate. And the video was pithy; they’ll get their money’s worth out of it before the 527 deadlines kick in pretty soon. But by contrast, “Christmas in Cambodia” sounds like (OMG, I almost inadvertantly triggered Godwin’s Law … Back away slowly, Beldar) …

“Christmas in Cambodia” sounds like that very successful Broadway play about the intentionally failing Broadway play that contains the name of he-who-must-not-be-named in civil blogosphere discussions. “Christmas! In Cambodia! For EV-ryone!”

I’ll agree, however, that it’s still an open question whether the show will make it out of previews and into Opening Night on the MSM’s Great White Way.

Aug 10, 2004 - 6:03 pm 30. penwil:

Catherine:

“A couple of weeks ago Helprin said that the two media sources that will “determine” (I think that was the word he used) this election are the NYTIMES & Drudge.”

I did see that Drudge got over 10 million visitors to his site on the day he broke the story swiftboat vets’ book. Whereas the NYT’s self-proclaimed circulation is roughly 1.5 million. WaPo’s circulation is slightly less, I believe. The two leading newspapers, as far as circulation figures go, are #1 USA Today, and #2 The Wall Street Journal. WSJ’s is over 2 million.

Aug 10, 2004 - 6:06 pm 31. ambisinistral:

Kerry’s problem is that this story will continue to mushroom. The ad, which was thin on substance touched it off, but then it grew with th release of chapter three and now the book.

Allegations are beginning to pile up. None have them have seriously been addressed by the Kerry campaign, which is in full blown kill the messanger mode to tamp the story down. If those allegations pile up deep enough, and they’ve barely broached Winter Soldier, then attacking veterans while avoiding answering these charges will backfire on the Kerry campaign IMHO.

Aug 10, 2004 - 6:14 pm 32. DennisThePeasant:

Catherine-

Is your bedroom in or near Cambodia?

Are you going to pack any hats given to you by people who are in, or around, the CIA?

Aug 10, 2004 - 6:19 pm 33. DennisThePeasant:

Couldn’t Kerry just say he went to Cambodia but didn’t inhale?

Aug 10, 2004 - 6:20 pm 34. Catherine:

Beldar

Thank you for reminding me of Godwin’s Law.

And yes, Christmas in Cambodia does sound like Springtime for Hitler.

Which is what makes it work.

(Have Leno or Letterman picked up on this yet?)

Penwil

I did see that Drudge got over 10 million visitors to his site on the day he broke the story swiftboat vets’ book.

Thank you.

Drudge is huge.

Fox is huge.

Everyone in the country will have heard this story shortly, and it will penetrate in ways we don’t understand or foresee.

Are folks here aware that everyone left of center feels exactly the same way about the media that everyone right of center feels?

Liberals think the media is conservative, supports the White House uncritically (viz: Orville Schelle “Why the Media Failed Us”), and is run by Rush Limbaugh.

Aug 10, 2004 - 6:25 pm 35. Catherine:

DtP

Is your bedroom in or near Cambodia?

OK, I read that post, and I snorted.

I guffawed, for pete’s sake.

You made me do it.

Aug 10, 2004 - 6:27 pm 36. Catherine:

Uh, I think that’s Orville Schell.

Without the e.

But I could be wrong.

Aug 10, 2004 - 6:28 pm 37. Catherine:

parallel universe time

OK, here’s what left-of-center thinks about the media:

Why the Media Failed Us in Iraq

By Orville Schell

Mr. Schell is Dean of the Graduate School of Journalism at the University of California, Berkeley. This piece is adapted from the preface to a collection of New York Review of Books articles on the media’s coverage of the war in Iraq by Michael Massing. It will be published soon as a short book, NOW THEY TELL US (The New York Review of Books, 2004).

When, on May 26, 2004, the editors of the New York Times published a mea culpa for the paper’s one-sided reporting on weapons of mass destruction and the Iraq war, they admitted to “a number of instances of coverage that was not as rigorous as it should have been.” They also commented that they had since come to “wish we had been more aggressive in re-examining claims” made by the Bush Administration. But we are still left to wonder why the Times, like many other major media outlets in this country, was so lacking in skepticism toward administration rationales for war? How could such a poorly thought through policy, based on spurious exile intelligence sources, have been so blithely accepted, even embraced, by so many members of the media? In short, what happened to the press’s vaunted role, so carefully spelled out by the Founding Fathers, as a skeptical “watchdog” over government?

My husband read the aforementioned COLLECTION OF NEW YORK REVIEW OF BOOKS ARTICLES ON THE MEDIA’S COVERAGE OF THE WAR IN IRAQ BY MICHAEL MASSING in toto.

He said they were “devastating.” (Ditto James Fallows’ ATLANTIC MONTHLY piece on the post-war in Iraq. Devastating.)

I hear that word a lot.

Aug 10, 2004 - 6:34 pm 38. JBR:

Does anyone have a sense of how this story is playing so far among undecided voters? It is clearly a hit among Bush supporters, and clearly hated by Kerry supporters, but what about those undecided independents in Ohio, Florida, etc?

Aug 10, 2004 - 6:38 pm 39. Catherine:

answers to your questions

Q: Couldn’t Kerry just say he went to Cambodia but didn’t inhale?

A: No. He can’t.

Q: Is your bedroom in or near Cambodia?

A: Not that I recall.

Q: Are you going to pack any hats given to you by people who are in, or around, the CIA?

A: You can count on it.

Aug 10, 2004 - 6:38 pm 40. Catherine:

scratch that

Q: Are you going to pack any hats given to you by people who are in, or around, the CIA?

A: You bet I might.

Aug 10, 2004 - 6:40 pm 41. Catherine:

JBM

You might be able to access this link, which is to a WSJ story about an undecided voter.

It was fascinating, because the guy doesn’t pay too much attention to the news, and didn’t get around to watching the Democratic Convention even though he intended to—–and he has voted for every winning president in his adult life.

Here we have five zillion political operatives & writers none of them able to predict an election, and this guy has called every single one.

He’s “getting it” from the atmosphere somehow; it’s the hive mind.

He was feeling exactly as I’ve been thinking undecided voters are feeling this year: he’s not keen on Bush, and would like to vote for someone else.

But Kerry hasn’t “made the sale.”

http://online.wsj.com/article/0,,SB109157091689382070,00.html

Aug 10, 2004 - 6:45 pm 42. david:

Just listened to Fox on the SBVT, O’Neill was very credible, and the DNC attorney that followed really had nothing but attacks on the credibility of the vets. I was disappointed in Hannity, he lost the opportunity to ask the DNC shill one obvious question: “Why won’t Kerry release his military record??”

Aug 10, 2004 - 6:45 pm 43. Terrye:

Catherine:

That is interesting but I have heard that most people think the press is not only biased, they think it is liberal.

I can’t remember where the stats came from [Pew???] but I think they said that only 25% of the people asked said they believed what they saw or read in the press.

I also think the press is full of itself. They tend to be self important and arrogant. That remark about the founding fathers is a perfect example. Like George Washington and Andy Rooney were on speaking terms or something. The rest of us are mere citizens, but the guys working at the NYT are special.

Aug 10, 2004 - 6:52 pm 44. cfcboc:

re: comment by david on the Hannity & Colmes show…

The DNC attorney referenced that Kerry volunteered for service even though he did not have to, i.e. could have gone to grad school.

Has anyone ever checked into what Kerry Draft Number was during that year and how far they went in the draft for that year.

My number, for example, was #180 in a year that they didn’t get above about 140. Many graduating college students made decisions on whether to enlist and get some choice of assignments or wqait and be drafted.

If Kerry’s draft number was low, that may have contributed to his “decision”. This can likely be checked by getting a list (on the web) from that year and seeing what number was assigned to his birthday (which as I recall was how they established the draft numbers).

Aug 10, 2004 - 6:58 pm 45. ambisinistral:

David,

I agree with you on Hannity missing the obvious question. when the lawyer was going on about which witnesses were more relieble in a trial I thought for sure Hannity would bring in Kerry’s service records as certainly being helpful evidence.

I think the draft lottery was instituted after Kerry went in — he wouldn’t have had a number, just the dreaded letter from Uncle Sam.

Aug 10, 2004 - 7:04 pm 46. ordi:

JBR,

I can only tell you from personal second hand stories. My husband showed the Swiftees ad to 30 people in his office. Granted we are in Nebraska where Bush will win hands down but he said 4 of those 30 changed their minds and are now voting for Bush like the other 26. My sister in Minnesota (Battleground State that Gore won in 2000 by about 59000 votes) emailed it to 15 people in MN and 5 of those emailed back stating there will now vote for Bush. If each of the voters that changed their minds sends it on it could snowball. I know this is all anecdotal but MN and other battleground states are going to be close so every vote will count for or against a candidate.

JDM,

Please read my answer to JBR. Also you wrote: Both the DNC & the RNC are playing this exactly as they should: they’re “ignoring” it.

Not true. The DNC has gotten involve. HUMAN EVENTS has obtained a copy of a letter (see below) which lawyers for the Democratic National Committee and John Kerry have sent to television station managers attempting to suppress the blistering anti-Kerry TV spot created by the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth.

Access DNC Letter Here

http://humaneventsonline.com.edgesuite.net/unfit_pdf.html

Aug 10, 2004 - 7:07 pm 47. Catherine:

this is good—

Why the Odds Don’t Favor John Kerry

By Allan Lichtman and Vladimir Keilis-Borok

Allan Lichtman is a professor of history at American University. Vladimir Keilis-Borok is a world-renowned authority on prediction methodology, and a Professor in Residence at UCLA.

John Kerry can hope to shorten the long odds he faces against President Bush only with a bold, imaginative approach to winning the election.

This challenging conclusion for Kerry comes from the Keys to the White House, a prediction system we developed in 1981 by applying the mathematics of pattern recognition to the outcomes of every presidential election since 1860. We subsequently used the Keys to predict correctly, well ahead of time, the popular vote results of presidential elections from 1984 to 2000.

What are the odds Kerry will come up with a bold, imaginative approacah to winning the election?

http://hnn.us/articles/6599.html

Aug 10, 2004 - 7:13 pm 48. Barry Dauphin:

Was Kerry’s hat made of tin foil by any chance?

Aug 10, 2004 - 7:13 pm 49. richard mcenroe:

Beldar ó According to National Review’s The Corner, three of the Democrats’ pet advocacy groups have filed a complaint with the FEC about the Swifties.

You know you’re telling the truth when a Democrat sues you.

David, Catherine ó Kerry tried to get a draft deferment (to go to Paris, no less) and failed. THEN and only then he enlisted in the Navy.

Aug 10, 2004 - 7:13 pm 50. Godzilla:

I usually have the talk shows on when I’m driving, and today caught part of Hugh’s segment that had Roger on. Following up on his advice to email/write MSM and complain about not covering the Kerry in Cambodia story, I emailed the following to O’Reilly:

**********************

Mr. O’Reilly, do you have any idea how idiotic it sounds to hear main stream media (and you) state that none of the Swift Boat sailors were on Kerry’s boat? In addition to this linked NY Post article:

http://www.nypost.com/news/nationalnews/28840.htm

the sailor’s themselves are, on a daily basis, being heard. Steve Gardner today, for example, on Hugh Hewitt’s radio program.

Ed from Washington State.

****************************

What really has me wondering is that Kerry represents, for half of this country’s population, the best shining example as an alternative to Bush. I can understand coming up with an alternative, but does it have to be such a scumbag? I never thought I’d find anyone more despicable than Clinton (draft dodging) running for president, but hell, now I wish that Kerry had dodged the draft because he caused more damage. Kerry had a game plan right from the start, and just off the top of my head another guy who comes to mind is Hunter S. Thompson, who saved everything he ever wrote, even before he made any money. I like Thompson, don’t get me wrong, enjoy his writing, though he’s clearly a flake. Anyway, getting back to Kerry. He has millions upon millions of enablers (let’s face it, the media alone doesn’t put these people up on pedestals, there must be a sufficient number of ordinary americans who oblige) – that is scary to contemplate.

Aug 10, 2004 - 7:14 pm 51. Catherine:

Terrye

most people think the press is not only biased, they think it is liberal

I think the answer to this seeming contradiction is that most people aren’t “liberal.”

People who are self-identified as liberal or left often (always?) believe the media is conservative, or, alternatively, that the press is simply “mainstream” and there is no liberal bias.

Hence the blog refrain: “What liberal media?”

but I think they said that only 25% of the people asked said they believed what they saw or read in the press.

I don’t remember, either, but it’s huge.

Huge numbers of people don’t believe what they read in the papers, and equally huge numbers of people don’t hold the press in high esteem.

Aug 10, 2004 - 7:17 pm 52. Catherine:

richard mcenroe

Well, hah!

I posted that self-same factoid about Kerry getting turned down on a deferment to go to Paris yesterday!

Though I must say that neither Roger nor my husband believes that story (which is Kerry’s story, so, uh, probably Roger & my husband are right).

Both say anyone who wanted a deferment back then got one.

Aug 10, 2004 - 7:22 pm 53. PeterUK:

I think this thing does have legs and the DNC attack machine is going into action.

“Sources indicate that a character assassination campaign is planned against Swift Boat Veterans for Truth, timed for the release of the book “Unfit for Command.”

A preliminary counterattack has already begun. It is taking the form of an e-mail campaign titled “Swift Boat Vets are Dishonest, Dishonorable, Unpatriotic Liars,” and comes from a group that calls itself the “Patriotic Veterans for Truth.”

Left Coast Report.

I have seen it reported that trolling on pro Bush sites is up,the water is on the rise under that bridge the trolls. are coming gibbering forth to protect their master.

It will get so bloody on the web that it cannot but seep into the MSM.

Aug 10, 2004 - 7:26 pm 54. Terrye:

And another thing I wondered is about the difference between polling for registered voters and likely voters. If you look at Bush’s numbers since late June he has been down around 2-4 points, sometimes it is dead even when polling registered voters. But when a poll of likely voters is done, such as Gallup he tends to be ahead. In fact the only poll I have seen in which either candidate went over 50% was Bush at 51%.

I would assume this is the difference between people who are just answering questions and people who really intend to vote.

Only death will deter me. A lot of the Kerry people I know bitch about Bush, but I am not sure how many will bother to get out of bed a half hour earlier to go vote for Kerry.

I think it has to do with voting for somebody vs voting against somebody. I make no predictions but I will vote for Bush because I support him and I think the Democrats are not up to the job. Especially Kerry.

Aug 10, 2004 - 7:40 pm 55. Terrye:

Peter:

They have to be careful about going after these men. They are also veterans. They also served. The truth is these men are not saying anything as nasty about Kerry as he said about all of them years ago.

The silly bastard should have left Viet Nam out of this.

Aug 10, 2004 - 7:44 pm 56. Jamie Irons:

cfcboc

If Kerry’s draft number was low, that may have contributed to his “decision”.

I think the draft lottery came in in 1968, the year Kerry started his brief tour of duty. I don’t think it affected him directly.

Catherine

Huge numbers of people don’t believe what they read in the papers, and equally huge numbers of people don’t hold the press in high esteem.

“A I know is what I read in the papers.”

Or blogs.

Jamie Irons

Aug 10, 2004 - 7:50 pm 57. Catherine:

Terrye

They have to be careful about going after these men. They are also veterans. They also served. The truth is these men are not saying anything as nasty about Kerry as he said about all of them years ago.

I wish we had you running the counteroffensive to the counteroffensive.

That is so well put (and I’m going to start quoting you).

Aug 10, 2004 - 7:50 pm 58. penwil:

Catherine,

Fox news has more viewers than CNN and MSNBC combined, but they only draw around 2 million on any given night.

I’m beginning to come to the conclusion that most people who are interested in current events and politics, on all sides of the spectrum, are getting most of their news off the internet. Or it is being passed to them in the form of emails by others who are getting their news off the internet. The uninterested, apolitical guys really are getting their knowledge through osmosis–a headline they read here or there, the five minutes of the news they catch one night while waiting to find out whether their team won that day or not, the talk around the watercooler and at the bus stop or the car pool.

One thing, I’m pretty certain about is that the swiftboat vets’ TV commercial will reach more people in those states in which it is aired, then any defense or attack Kerry’s people can mount through the MSM. Sending threatening letters to the TV stations might not have been such a good idea though . . .

Eyewitness news at eleven . . . The political ad John Kerry does not want you to see!

Aug 10, 2004 - 7:54 pm 59. ambisinistral:

The other problem for him is puffing himself up with lies when he is a youngster is forgivable, but when people connect that his whole convention schtick was him still puffing himself up with lies… well, that aint too comforting a thought.

Aug 10, 2004 - 7:55 pm 60. Terrye:

Catherine:

aww shucks ma’am tain’t nothin’….

I think the Dems had better come to grips with the fact that they are not the only people that can get mean. They like to compare Bush with Hitler but feign outrage the first time someone even challenges their guy.

girlie men is what they are.

Aug 10, 2004 - 7:55 pm 61. John Moore ( Useful Fools ):

They have to be careful about going after these men. They are also veterans. They also served. The truth is these men are not saying anything as nasty about Kerry as he said about all of them years ago.

The silly bastard should have left Viet Nam out of this.

That is so very true. And bringing up first W’s service and then Viet Name is making it much easier for my group and others to attack Kerry’s post-war falsehoods.

What he said then is inexcusable and intolerable, and is the reason there are a whole lot of Vietnam Vets who are working to counter that attack.

I don’t think we an do anything as dramatic as the Swifties, but we will try.

I was amazed at the Convention. It’s like Kerry was asking for it. Maybe he’s too narcissistic to realize that he is despised by the Swifties, but he had warning with their May 5 press conference.

Two things I want to clarify:

The opinions that should count the most are those of the other officers in the unit – especially those who operated with Kerry – they are his peers in a very small (100 people) unit.

Being on Kerry’s boat is not the only place to observe him. The officers on the other boats watched him closely (as they watched everything in the environment).

Oh, and Rassman spent 2 days with the swifties.

Aug 10, 2004 - 7:58 pm 62. Goof®:

Well, the tradesports site continues to show the electoral race at around 52 – 48 for Bush and the popular race at around 55 – 45 for Kerry. Rasmussen had a 4 point shift to Kerry today. All of the above has to do with economic and market data. We did our part to help Bush today. We bought a new car.

I still won’t vote for him. My wife is among the undecided. Not that it matters. Bush has no chance of winning California.

Aug 10, 2004 - 7:58 pm 63. richard mcenroe:

Catherine ó Well. if he applied for a deferment, there must be a record somewhere.

Aug 10, 2004 - 8:00 pm 64. Terrye:

Goof:

And if Kerry wins Indiana I will eat that moldy old hat he carries around with him. But then again Arnold has a 65% approval rating in Ca and I know a lot of Dems from Ca who said that would never happen.

Economics are subjective. I think the whole job creation thing is strange. Why don’t they just use the employment rate like they used to?

Gale lost his job October 2000. After his unemployment ran out he went in business for himself. And he has one part time employee [who wants to be part time]. According to the stats both these men are unemployed.

BTW I have my doubts that the difference on the popular vote will be ten points. The truth is if people would stop rising from the dead to vote for Democrats it probably would not have been as high for Gore as it was. Indiana had about 3.4% undercount but since it was thought they were mostly Republcians and Bush carried the state by 14 points nobody cared.

Aug 10, 2004 - 8:15 pm 65. Samuel:

jdm

Let me just take the first words you uttered…

You realize, I mean, c’mon, this Kerry thing has no legs. Zero. It’s not going anywhere. It’s not going to change the minds of anybody. It will not be perceived as important by most; and for those that do, the credit/blame will be on the Republican attack machine.

Realize until one last summer I was a lifelong Democrat with my paws deep into Democratic politics. I also live in Washington D.C. That being said let me ask…

What do you base such things on? I have done some campaigning in my days and again, what do you base this on, gut feelings? It takes much experience to rely on such things as the formulas of campaigning are pretty set. Spinning on a War Liberal blog certainly isn’t going to cut it.

For starters, is this less important than Bush’s old drunk driving charge? I ask this because that cost Bush a few percentage points and almost pushed the election to Gore (who I voted for.) Democrats better deal with reality or brace themselves for a real big ass kicking because this is not going away.

First of all Kerry made Vietnam central to his campaign… STUPID! You never try to inoculate yourself by cloaking yourself in controversy yet that is what he has done! Do the Democrats think they will keep Conservative Democrats and Independents who believe we are at War from caring about this? In an election where Kerry’s credibility is absolutely key to his political survival this is more than critical. I would love to know the sound reasoning beyond such spin. You talk with a demeanor like 9/11 never happened or is passe enough to not be much factor. To you it obviously isn’t as much but to some it is. Unfortunately people like Kerry, you and other Democrats don’t understand the change that has occurred in many of us.

There has been a true 5 percent shift towards the Republicans, I don’t care what the polls say I know better. The Republicans numbers by comparison used to look way worse in the past, yet they always “outperform” the polls on election day. It is real and can’t be set aside by taking nuanced political positions or saying “Bush Lied” when those other than the ABB crowd are more serious then that. They are interested if someone is a true believer in fighting to the finish. Someone lying about their service and potentially feigning injury for personal gain is not going to cut it. Someone talking about “pulling out of Iraq” and painting Bush as incompetent on the world stage doesn’t help either, Kerry must prove much greater things.

Is Kerry a man of his word? Bush is, and in their guts people know this. If Kerry comes of as flakey he will go down bigger than you imagine. This story has no legs? Only if Kerry can start showing he is of more substance, so far Vietnam is all the substance we have to work with as it is all he has offered. He certainly has kept his Senate record off of the table. He is stuck. As my father used to quote from Job (Bible), “Who is this that darkens counsel by speaking words without knowledge” your words ring hollow to me, You are not speaking from knowledge.

–

In the late 1980’s I worked hard to help Jim Moran (D) defeat the incumbent Stan Parris (R) in a congressional race. Stan was ahead in the polls by about 2 percentage points in our polls and we knew we needed about a five point shift, and he would go down. I won’t confess everything here but let me just say that we obtained that five point shift by driving down his favorability and that shift did cause him to go down.

JDM, a five point shift is always obtainable if a candidate is careless enough to oblige, Kerry is more than careless he is pathological. If you don’t think these type stories have legs then you are a genius or blind, perhaps partisan time will tell. I’ll just bite my tongue, but will say the combination of Kerry’s personality flaws and the false life story he has spun are greater than his ability to overcome. I have known and said this for a long time. JDM a five point shift is critical for Kerry and I guarantee there is five points in this and like stories. Kerry will be painted as an untrustworthy waffler and people will cry foul, but it is only the truth, he is in fact an untrustworthy waffler, he lies and he can no longer hide.

You argue as if this was 1996, Clinton (Monica), 9/11 never occurred, and Kerry had Clintons charm. All three of these factors weigh against him. I know some things about John Kerry and this is just the beginning. People care more than you think, you are projecting. In 1988 as I campaigned for Michael Dukakis he was up about 18 points about this time. He lost to Bush I who received 53% of the vote (the last to win more than 50% of the vote), Dubya will better that I guarantee it. I never felt the video of a dopey looking Dukakis on the tank or Willie Horton should have mattered as much either, yet it did and I predicted his loss while he was still ahead. This is bigger than that yet you dismiss it, don’t expect independents and swing voters to share your view. Catherine is correct, one thing is true in politics, on the Presidential level people vote for leadership over policy (I learned this from Tip O’Neal), Kerry has a high hurdle to climb and this is not going to help (understatement of the evening). Leadership is Dubya’s strong point, ironically it was Reagan’s as well, brace yourself.

Aug 10, 2004 - 8:24 pm 66. richard mcenroe:

Roger ó The Navy was a popular option for people who didn’t/couldn’t get defermentsó or, in Prince John Lackpair’s case, maybe thedeferment he wanted ó as was non-flying duty in the Air Force. The North Vietnamese, if memory serves, had relatively few battleships or carriers (I believe naval surface ships shot down a grand total of one MiG in the course of the war). Not to denigrate the service, but for someone with ambitions who didn’t want draft dodger on their resumÈ in the future, it was a definite choice (who knew from Free Willy in the ’60’s?).

Aug 10, 2004 - 8:34 pm 67. Goof®:

Terrye

You know Dems from CA who said Arnold would never have a 65% approval rating? Do tell.

Bush is coming by on Friday to raise some money. Kerry will be here (for the same purpose?) before moving on to Oregon. There is a decent chance that neither will be back and that the only time we’ll see any advertising is on the news.

Aug 10, 2004 - 8:37 pm 68. penwil:

Another deciding factor that may come in to play is the evangelican Christian vote. There was an article about them in the NYT no less. Apparently about 4 million of them (and I’ve also seen this number quoted as high as 7 million) who normally voted stayed home in 2000, because of the DUI story, and because they weren’t all that sold on Bush’s social conservatism. This year, however, they are highly motivated by the gay marriage issue. They are convinced a Kerry victory will bring about a Surpreme Court that will “destroy the family” by ratifying gay marriage. They’ve got a big grassroots campaign already going on to get out the vote, and that vote will be going for Bush. The Times called them the “silent Christian majority.” Silent in that they aren’t showing up in the polls, because the polls are all weighted toward the 2000 turnout.

And one state where these silent Christians could have a deciding impact is Florida.

Aug 10, 2004 - 8:42 pm 69. ordi:

When talking about Kerry the word pathological has been uttered a lot in the blogosphere lately. I agree. He did not come from a super rich family but grew up around extremely wealth people including The Kenndey?s and JFK.

I think Kerry has a condition close to Penis Envy. I call it JFK Envy.

Aug 10, 2004 - 8:46 pm 70. Terrye:

Goof:

Yes as a matter of fact I do. One of them told me he was a whole bunch more afraid of Ashcroft than any silly Islamic terrorist. Sound familiar?

Believe it or not we are part of the same country. I was born and raised in Oklahoma. I had relatives that went to California years ago. The smart ones went back to Okie land in the 40’s but a few strange cousins are still on the left coast. Takes all kinds. I hear that in Ok Bush is winning 2 to 1. They are not crazy about rich Yankees there.

Aug 10, 2004 - 8:48 pm 71. Roberts:

There are few things more hilarious that seeing a Kerry shill claim that these revelations don’t matter after a Democratic convention that harped over and over and over again about Kerry’s Vietnam experiences.

There are some people who fall for Calvinball, but not that many.

Aug 10, 2004 - 8:51 pm 72. someone:

Beldar, “Christmas in Cambodia” makes me think of that Dead Kennedys song. Surprised no one’s mentioned it yet…

If the absurdity of this stuff starts spilling out into the MSM, it’s Dukakis time. I can’t imagine that I’ll be able to hear Kerry mention Vietnam in a debate without laughing; we’ll see how much of the public is let in on the joke by that time.

Aug 10, 2004 - 8:52 pm 73. Terrye:

I bet Osama is getting a kick out of this.

Why is it I get the feeling that if Kerry wins there will be rejoicing in terrorist enclaves around the world?

Oh yeah that is right. Vote for Kerry and the French will love us again. What else matters?

Aug 10, 2004 - 9:00 pm 74. Goof®:

Terrye

Yeah, but 65%?

I was in Oklahoma once. Indiana, too, now that I think about it. Oklahoma was far more memorable.

Aug 10, 2004 - 9:13 pm 75. Katherine:

Terrye,

After the California’s recall Mark Steyn remarked that he would never again complain about the liberal bias of MSM. His point was that MSM and Democrats created such echo chamber for each another that they were incapable of noticing that reality was shaping contrary to their beliefs and desires and thus could not take corrective action.

I was out of the country at the time ( I sent in my absentee ballot ), but I believe that most of the CA press was predicting to the last that Davis would win the recall ñ and then, after Arnie got the vote, they put in an interpretation that this is a sign that all the incumbents are in trouble and therefore Bush is going to lose the election. The fact that Republican candidates Schwarzenegger and McClintock received combined 62% of votes and the Democrat Bustamante got 31% were glossed over. The leaps of ìlogicî in that spin are nothing short of remarkable.

So, how many more days to go?

Aug 10, 2004 - 9:32 pm 76. Samuel:

Katherine

The media hurts Republicans, however the liberal cocoon keeps Democrats from growing up.

There are 83 more days here on the East Coast. Still 84 out West.

Aug 10, 2004 - 9:48 pm 77. Goof®:

84.

I’m trying to remember who I voted for. Something tells me that it was Angelyne, but I could be wrong.

Aug 10, 2004 - 9:49 pm 78. Goof®:

It was Mary Cook. I would have voted for Ueberroth, but he withdrew.

Aug 10, 2004 - 9:53 pm 79. M. Simon:

Ordi,

The Republican set the precident by filing against F911.

The FEC turned them down. Natch.

Precident set.

OOOOOOOOOOOOOppppppps.

Aug 10, 2004 - 10:07 pm 80. Sandy P:

Uhhh, guys???

Drudge’s siren’s going off.

U.S. intelligence officials say a high-profile political assassination, triggered by the public release of a new message from Osama bin Laden, will lead off the next major al Qaeda terrorist attack, the WASHINGTON TIMES has learned.

The assassination plan is among new details of al Qaeda plots disclosed by U.S. officials familiar with intelligence reports who, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the killing could be carried out against a U.S. or foreign leader either in the United States or abroad.

The new details of al Qaeda’s plans were found on a laptop computer belonging to arrested al Qaeda operative Muhammad Naeem Noor Khan of Pakistan, Bill Gertz is set to report in a page one blockbuster.

‘We’re talking about planning at the screwdriver level,’ one official said. ‘It is very detailed.’

—

I know, I know, too much heat on the SBVs, so Rove has ginned this up.

Nothing to see here, move along.

Aug 10, 2004 - 10:11 pm 81. Katherine:

Mary Cook? Ah, yes, the Adult Film Actress, who ìloved being naked.î http://www.worldhistory.com/wiki/M/Mary-Carey.htm

BTW, Goof, what countdown will you keep after the election? Just wonder.

Aug 10, 2004 - 10:15 pm 82. Sandy P:

Samuel, JDM’s in the news biz, IIRC.

I hope (and pray) you’re right, Samuel.

Aug 10, 2004 - 10:30 pm 83. Sandy P:

Goof, what is going on in Oregon?

How come they’re not as blue as they should be?

Aug 10, 2004 - 10:31 pm 84. Sandy P:

–http://www.washtimes.com/national/20040811-123531-3824r.htm

“The goal of the next attack is twofold: to damage the U.S. economy and to undermine the U.S. election,” the official said. “The view of al Qaeda is ‘anybody but Bush.’ ”

Lies! Lies!!

Rove planted this!!!

Aug 10, 2004 - 10:42 pm 85. M. Simon:

Rassman’s specialty in the Special Forces?

Handing out medals.

His lucky day when Kerry picked him up, eh? Lucky for both of them.

Mr. Honesty ought to tell us about Cambodia. One more time.

Form 180. Release the Records.

Aug 10, 2004 - 10:48 pm 86. Fresh Air:

I think we all need a little perspective here.

The Kerry Campaign has been stuck in neutral for the past month. Let’s tally all this summer’s negative news for Kerry: Joe Wilson exposed as a liar; Dick Clarke, ditto; Sandy Burgler; Senate Intel Report providing loads of ammo for going to war; 9/11 Commission Report fails to blame Bush; new Al Qaeda warnings; handover of sovereignty in Iraq; improving security situation in Iraq; consumer confidence up; jobless numbers down; and a negative bounce from Democratic convention.

Against all this we have higher oil prices (partly seasonal, partly ME-related, partly Russia-related); two weak payroll reports; and two interest rate hikes. In the background on the negative side we also have the Plame affair.

In the background on the positive side we have a possible major arrest/sting operation in the WoT, likely strong August payroll numbers, possible new WMD finds and the GOP convention. Oh, and Michael Moore Hates America is supposed to air this fall (before the election I assume).

Unknown unknowns, as Rummy says, include the potential for a major terrorist attack and a spike in violence in Iraq.

In this context, the Swift Boat Vets matter is a free shot. It was an unexpected positive surprise (at least to most of us). If it knocks Kerry out, great. If not, it may still have a large cumulative impact on the marginal voters. At a minimum, as DtP pointed out when the story first broke, it will keep Kerry on his heels when he should be charging ahead.

So relax, everybody. There is more likelihood of good news for Bush to come than the reverse.

Aug 10, 2004 - 10:52 pm 87. Katherine:

This is a pattern, isnít it? Assassination followed by a major attack on American interest ñ every 3 years or so?

I have a bad feeling about this.

Aug 10, 2004 - 10:58 pm 88. Sandy P:

Are we finally getting some red meat???

Via Econopundit:

Kerry’s campaign documents, according to Bush Cheney ‘04, show his proposed tax rollback would apply to single filers earning as little as $147,000 and married couples’ joint income as low as $179,000.

—

Katherine, I read yesterday(?) the chatter has dropped off again, just like it did before 9/11.

Well, we can’t say we weren’t warned.

Aug 10, 2004 - 11:05 pm 89. M. Simon:

Roger,

Have you considered running a Kerry Political Joke of the Day Contest?

Good jokes spread like wild fire.

======================================

What is Mr. Honesty afraid of?

Form 180. Release the records.

Aug 10, 2004 - 11:22 pm 90. Goof®:

Katherine

I have no plans.

Sandy P

They weren’t all that “blue” last time.

Aug 10, 2004 - 11:29 pm 91. TmjUtah:

Simon -

Why did Kerry run on Vietnam?

Because even Bill Clinton was smart enough to know a stone liberal can’t win a national election. He parlayed charisma and the media into two terms in the White House. Kerry doesn’t have charisma and his senate record is frankly worse in terms of productivity than was Clinton’s public service in Arkansas.

And it’s not September 10th anymore…

Aug 10, 2004 - 11:47 pm 92. John Moore ( Useful Fools ):

A couple of things…

One way out of the draft in those days was the Naval Reserve – only 2 years of active duty required.

I joined in Dec ‘66 and there were no waiting lines (but then, who know there was a Naval Air Station in Kansas of all places (Olathe). Since my goal was adventure, see the world, go to Vietnam, I worked my way into all three.

The supreme draft dodging but serve choice was many National Guard positions (not including the one that Bush took, which had a long active duty requirement). My brother got draft #13 in 1970 or 1971, and he was able to get into the Army Guard with no trouble. He ended up a weapons specialist (which he loved) and the battalion photographer (he was a photojournalist).

Regarding assassination…

There’s a weapon that the US snipers have been using for the first time in Iraq. It’s a Barrett 50 – A 7 foot long rifle that shoots a 50 caliber round. The last time I was out shooting, a biker at the adjacent station was shooting one. The muzzle blast sent a shock wave through us every time it fired. The range wouldn’t let him shoot at the long range metal targets (because it would destroy them), so he was aiming next to them. The weapon is good to about 1800 meters with a good shooter. The projectile can destroy an armored personnel carrier (this was done at 2000 meters in the WOT).

Aug 10, 2004 - 11:59 pm 93. ricpic:

Most ordinary people – myself included – don’t remember specific charges and counter charges in the runup to an election but do get a sense of the candidate’s charachters; and it’s beginning to dawn on the electorate that there is something disturbingly off-center about Kerry.

Or at least I hope so.

Aug 11, 2004 - 4:54 am 94. Syl:

Catherine

“What are the odds Kerry will come up with a bold, imaginative approacah to winning the election?”

Quite good after they impound all the voting machines. Not imaginative, but surely bold.

Terrye

“Gale lost his job October 2000. After his unemployment ran out he went in business for himself. And he has one part time employee [who wants to be part time]. According to the stats both these men are unemployed. ”

I think at least Gale would show up in the Household Survey though. Which noone pays any attention to…only the Payroll Data Survey is ever reported in the news. There are reasons, many of which have been addressed in the last few months, but the resistance to accepting Household data will persist for a long time yet. Hobbsonline was doing a lot of work explaining the issues with Household survey a couple months past. I did some reading on the issue myself and made a couple of posts over there. I’ve forgotten most of it though. I’m really aging faster than I would like.

But while the Payroll survey had jobs last month at 32,000, the Household reported over 600,000 (according to Fred Barnes, I stopped looking up the data myself once job growth in the Payroll survey started to take off.)

That’s an amazing discrepancy.

And demonstrates there’s an underlying structural change in our economy.

All

“triggered by the public release of a new message from Osama bin Laden”

“chatter dropped off again”

This fits the pattern and we just went through this a few months ago. Lots of chatter. News that an attack will be triggered by video. Chatter drops off. Video comes out. We hold our breath. And either something bad happens or we’ve somehow stopped them. I don’t think grounding all those flights around the holidays was for nought.

I rarely read Debka, Memri, or LGF anymore. I just got myself worked up when there was nothing I could do about it.

All I can do is live my life and support Bush. I’m doing what I can.

Aug 11, 2004 - 5:24 am 95. Charlie (Colorado):

The projectile can destroy an armored personnel carrier (this was done at 2000 meters in the WOT).

Whoa, John, I call bullshit. The rifle and all are perfectly reasonable — ever read about the super sniper rifle the Confederacy whipped up to try for Lincoln? — but there just ain’t no way that a 50 caliber projectile from a shoulder-fired weapon can destroy an APC.

Aug 11, 2004 - 6:06 am 96. richard mcenroe:

Charlie(Colorado) ó The Barrett .50 fires the same .50 BMG round as the .50 cal. machine gun. That round will penetrate the armor of most light armored vehicles produced through the ’80’s (which was most of the Soviet/Chinese/NK/French armor the Iraqis ran). Most AFV’s produced since then are hardened to resist at least 12.7mm/.50 cal. fire. 2000 yards is pretty much the max effective range for the round, but depending on the target vehicle, the story is entirely possible, especially if you luck out with a “golden BB” hit on open hatches, stored ammo or take out the engine block.

And frankly, Communist armor, it turns out, sucks. There were documented cases from 1991 of Bradleys taking out T-62 tanks with their 25mm gun, which no one thought was possible, and I’ve heard anecdotal accounts of North Korean T-54/55′ s that were penetrated by .50 cal fire.

Aug 11, 2004 - 7:10 am 97. Fresh Air:

Syl–

The MSM and their liberal worldview refuse to submit to the notion that entrepreneurs are what make this country’s economy great. Unless the jobs are created by large corporations, they don’t exist. Never mind that Microsoft, Apple, Intel and a thousand other start-ups would never have been counted under the old payroll data.

You are correct, IMHO. There has been a structural shift in the economy. Millions of people have taken their golden parachutes, severance packages, retirement nest eggs, portfolio gains and rainy day money and decided to start their own businesses. I read somewhere that LLCs are being founded at a record rate (>40% more than last year). Don’t expect the media to pick up on that, either.

It’s very sad. There are huge stories out there that are missed completely in an effort to boost Kerry. I for one have had it. If Bush loses I have purchased my last newspaper (and I’m a newspaper junkie).

Aug 11, 2004 - 7:10 am 98. Knucklehead:

Comeon, Fresh Air, everyone who cares about The Little Guy knows those aren’t Good Jobs! They aren’t Real, Good Paying American Jobs in saw or steel mills or auto factory. Those aren’t Union Jobs! The only good jobs are union jobs.

Aug 11, 2004 - 7:28 am 99. Bostonian:

ricpic: “it’s beginning to dawn on the electorate that there is something disturbingly off-center about Kerry… Or at least I hope so. ”

I certainly think there’s something a bit strange about the guy. (I wasn’t going to vote for him anyway, though.)

I truly cannot tell if that feeling is really percolating in the US. I live in Kerryland, making frequent visits to sanity (like this blog), but I just don’t know what’s going on out there.

Another reader of this blog noted the feeling of being on tenterhooks (I think that’s the correct spelling). This is how it is with me too.

Aug 11, 2004 - 7:42 am 100. Fresh Air:

Knuckle–

Good Paying American Jobs in saw or steel mills or auto factory.

I visited an auto assembly plant once. Those guys no longer run around like they did in the seventies, adjusting doors with hammers and installing squeaks. They work their asses off, and let it be said: the pay is good but the work completely sucks.

We should be glad America is a service economy. Know what percentage of jobs are in factories today?

Ten.

Aug 11, 2004 - 8:09 am 101. jdm:

Not that it matters at the tail end of this discussion, but a few clarifications.

1) I am not a Kerry supporter. Not even a teensy-weensy bit.

2) I only support Bush insofar as he seems to have the best grasp of the importance of the war we are in. But that is only in comparison to the alternatives.

3) When I say “nothing” will happen, I don’t mean this item will silently disappear. I expect lots of fireworks, bandying back & forth, reputations sullied, and slanderous accusations. I just don’t expect any long term effect on the Kerry’s relationship with likely voters (for him).

4) It is worth noting, however, that I said this item taken together with the other Kerry-isms, together, in toto, will have an effect on the less likely to vote for Kerry voters.

But now, even tho’ I don’t expect it to be answered, I want to know this: what do you people – and you know who you are – expect to come of all this? I mean, if this Xmas in Cambodia thing blows up as you hope, what is the preferred fall-out? The realistic fallout?

Aug 11, 2004 - 8:40 am 102. Fresh Air:

JDM–

The best possible fallout is a complete discrediting of Kerry’s war-hero myth, Kerry’s loss and an attendant painful soul-searching by the Democrats of where they went wrong. Only if the Dems wake up and get serious about the WoT and the military generally will any long-term good come out of this election (except for Bush’s continuing to roll up Al Qaeda and its state sponsors in the meantime, of course).

I for one am not interested in seeing the man cowering for forgiveness or anything like that. I just think the Democrats nominated a buffoon on the basis of a trumped-up personal history and a failure to see that Dick Gephardt or Joe Lieberman would better serve the country. Instead they went for the most electable, in a dubious display of specious and superficial reasoning. The Dems had the chance for a different outcome and they failed. And that lesson should be drilled into every Democratic operative’s skull: YOU BLEW IT! Worse, YOU BLEW IT FOR THE WRONG REASONS. YOU PUT POWER IN FRONT OF THE NATIONAL INTEREST!

As it happens, I believe if you provide for the nation’s interests power will flow from that success. The Democrats have the equation backwards.

Aug 11, 2004 - 9:00 am 103. Sandy P:

Bill Hobbs also put together the LLC information.

It’s a good blog.

Aug 11, 2004 - 9:01 am 104. Sandy P:

Via Bros. Judd:

In the heat of the presidential-primary season, U.S. Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts delivered some tough rhetoric about the No Child Left Behind Act, charging that the federal legislation he had voted for two years earlier was a “one-size-fits-all” approach to policymaking.

Now, as he shapes his education message for the general election campaign against President Bush, the Democratic nominee has softened his tone. He is using language that suggests that, if elected, he may be less aggressive in making adjustments to the bipartisan lawóa revision of the Elementary and Secondary Education Actóand may not necessarily pursue legislative fixes.

–

From an Education Week article.

Aug 11, 2004 - 9:05 am 105. penwil:

jdm,

I posted this in the newer thread above, but I’ll also post it here, since it pertains to whether or not the story has gone anywhere outside the blogosphere and what affect it may or might not have:

NRO’s the Corner quotes a poll this morning taken in 19 battleground states:

Nearly 6 in 10 likely voters claim that they that they recently saw, read or heard something about the TV ad ?Swift Boat Veterans for Truth? released and began airing in several key battleground states questioning the truthfulness of Senator Kerry?s Vietnam War record. Among those who claimed to have seen, read or heard something about the ad, a majority overall and among undecided voters said it would not impact their vote either way. However to the extent it did impact voting intentions, it was a negative for Sen. Kerry by as much as nearly a 3 to 1 margin.

———

As to what I, personally, hope will come of this . . . I must confess it has much less to do with a desire to see that truth will out or justice will be done, and more to do with wanting Kerry to lose votes. I happen to believe that the result of this election could determine whether we ultimately survive this war we are waging against Islamic facism. Because I believe Bush will be better at waging the war than Kerry, I want Bush to win and Kerry to lose, and anything that causes even one person, particularly in the battleground states, to pull the lever for Bush over Kerry is fine by me.

As for the MSM–I gave up on them a long time ago. In fact, I’ve noticed lately that when I do bother to read a newspaper, my knee jerk reaction is not to believe a word that I’m reading. As far as I’m concerned I might as well be reading Pravda. I don’t even believe my movie reviewer anymore since he feels the need to inject his personal Bush-bashing politics into every film he reviews, even when it’s teeny bopper fair like Princess Diaries II.

Aug 11, 2004 - 9:15 am 106. Sandy P:

Via Vodkapundit:

I’m sure a 1 or 2 here would check in w/ABC:

Posted by Will Collier ∑ 11 August 2004 ∑

Deeply stupid comment at ABC News’ The Note today, amidst predicting a Kerry victory:

Forget the fact that that we still can’t find a single American who voted for Al Gore in 2000 who is planning to vote for George Bush in 2004. (If you are that elusive figure, e-mail us and tell us who you are and why: politicalunit@abcnews.com.)

Time to get out of that newsroom, Noters. Does the name Zell Miller ring any bells? How about Roger L. Simon? Ed Koch?

But hey, that’s no indication of any groupthink among the enlightened ranks of Jornalists. No sir, that’s just solid “reporting”…

Aug 11, 2004 - 9:17 am 107. Katherine:

ìAnd frankly, Communist armor, it turns out, sucks.î

Yes, like anything else produced by command economy.

That is why I have my doubts about the NK nuclear capability: even if they managed to produce few nukes, it is a tossup where these would end up after the launch: back in silo of origin, North Pole, Russia, somewhere in the middle of vast Pacific or few yards short of Carmel, California. My personal bet is the silo.

That does not mean that they cannot sell this stuff to terrorist, though.

Re: jobs. I am in SF and I am very much attuned to the start-up environment. Projects that for last 3 years were not even looked are suddenly finding customers willing to put money down. Engineers who two years ago worked with my husband for ìequityî are not available anymore because they all found well paying jobs. Because of that my poor husband slaves on 2 jobs now: the one that pays the mortgage and the one that never before brought anything but hopes and expenses, but suddenly there is a chance that it might pay real money. The entrepreneurial climate in tech is still very fragile, the last thing that we need is Osama delivering one of his explosive ìpolicy messageî.

Aug 11, 2004 - 9:25 am 108. Knucklehead:

jdm:

Fresh Air is a more decent human being than I am. What he describes would satisfy my hankerings for some “realistic good” to come from this. The nation would be better served if one party wasn’t disgustingly dysfunctional and ethically bankrupt.

If I had my personal druthers, however, we’d see John Kerry reduced to sobbing on his knees on prime time TV begging forgiveness from the veterans he slandered and the nation he betrayed (after he served it).

Aug 11, 2004 - 9:27 am 109. DennisThePeasant:

Rassman: “Where do you thing we are, Skipper?”

Kerry: “I dunno, Little Buddy, this was supposed to be a three hour tour.”

Rassman: “I hope we can get back in time to sing carols.”

Kerry: “Me too, Little Buddy.”

[From excised portion of Kerry's autobiography.]

Aug 11, 2004 - 9:38 am 110. jdm:

Thanks to all who answered (or might). I thought it was a dead thread.

Interesting (and humorously knuckleheaded) responses. I can’t say I disagree with those outcomes… well, that sobbing on his knees thing is kinda disgusting

The only one I want to comment on is that from Fresh Air. Moe Lane (from tacitus/obsidian wings) made a similar comment to yours on red state. Boy, I dunno. I just don’t see the Democrats learning anything from, well, anything. I know a few individuals (Samuel, Roger, Katherine?) have, but these are sentient beings who look at issues, investigate, read, etc.

Most core Democrats that I know have an emotional tie to “the Left” that is not going to be overcome by a defeat or three. No matter how large. In fact, given large enough defeats it may kick in the martyr complex…

Aug 11, 2004 - 10:17 am 111. Fresh Air:

DtP–

Don’t forget about the time Kerry found the Japanese sailor…or the World War II mine…or the Russian space capsule…or, or…

You know, I always liked Ginger the best. Some made a strong case for Mary Ann as the girl next door. Though given his proclivities toward the aged, I expect Kerry was a Mrs. Howell man.

Aug 11, 2004 - 10:21 am 112. bkw:

I expect Kerry was a Mrs. Howell man.

Yes, but it’s the money thing, not the age thing.

Aug 11, 2004 - 10:28 am 113. Fresh Air:

JDM–

I posted this last week, but Tocqueville warned that parties that suddenly found themselves in the minority would have a hard time adjusting to it, and would at first deny it. I think the Democrats want to believe they are still in the majority in this country (which is why all the talk about Al Gore’s popular vote). To think otherwise is to invite a whole set of questions as to why they are in the minority. Hence, the convenient belief that whenever they lose it’s because of GOP dirty tricks.

Plugging their ears, shielding their eyes and shouting is what they are doing now. Someday, when their world collapses around them, they won’t know what happened.

As to your comment about failing to learn, liberals should remember what Socrates said about the unexamined life.

Aug 11, 2004 - 10:30 am 114. Fresh Air:

BKW–

Yes, but it’s the money thing, not the age thing.

You think there’s a shortage of available women under 60?

Aug 11, 2004 - 10:32 am 115. Charlie (Colorado):

If I had my personal druthers, however, we’d see John Kerry reduced to sobbing on his knees on prime time TV begging forgiveness from the veterans he slandered and the nation he betrayed (after he served it).

Strong letter follows.

Aug 11, 2004 - 2:32 pm 116. Terrye:

jdm:

I hope that this incident will put an end once and for all to the waving of a bloody shirt by politicians like Kerry.

Aug 11, 2004 - 2:53 pm 117. Knucklehead:

Humor and dark animosity aside, Penwil best expressed what I hope for – an election win for Bush aided by votes lost to Kerry.

The 2000 election obviously went to Bush through the electoral college. The popular vote came down 543,895 votes on Gore’s side (I’m not concerned with the statistical importance of Vote Early and Often or who “stole” votes from whom). That is 1/2 of one percent (48.38% to 47.87).

http://www.fec.gov/pubrec/2000presgeresults.htm

I don’t believe (although I have no proof) that there are substantial numbers of people who voted for Bush in 2000 who will vote for Kerry in 2004. There are clearly people who voted for Gore in 2000 who will vote for Bush in 2004 although I have no idea how to determine the size of that block.

If Kerry loses 1% of the Gore vote to his sorry and sick posturing regarding his Vietnam record then we get a reversal of the 2000 popular vote. I’ll leave the electoral college issues to the pros. If Kerry loses much more than that I suspect we start quickly start approaching some numerical limit where the electoral college vote must reflect the popular vote.

I will vote for Bush with a clear conscience knowing I’ve done due diligence and that I honestly believe he deserves a second term. The idea of Kerry as president makes me sick.

Aug 11, 2004 - 3:09 pm 118. John Moore ( Useful Fools ):

Re: Barrett 81 ( 50 cal ) and BMP

See here for a government description of the event. They give a shorter range than 2 klicks, but 2 rounds took out an Iraqi BMP.

Aug 11, 2004 - 3:25 pm 119. John Moore ( Useful Fools ):

Unfortunately, I know folks who will vote for Kerry that voted for Bush. What I don’t know is why, except in the case of those people who have been turned by Howard Stern.

BTW.. Does anyone know what really happened there? He blamed his temporary loss of listenership on Bush, even though a Democrat at the FCC began the proceedings. But now the guy apprently is out to defeat Bush, and he has a large and remarkably irrational audience.

When I was a broadcast engineer, that guy would have been on a tape loop and the bleep button would have been used a whole lot. Otherwise my license would have been at stake (actually, it’s still valid).

What gives?

Aug 11, 2004 - 3:28 pm 120. M. Simon:

TmjUtah,

Why did Kerry run on his Vietnam record?

Because sleeping in the Senate doesn’t sound near as good as shooting a man in the back.

==============================================

See you have to make them short snappy and at least somewhat close to the truth.

It is a discussion opener.

Form 180. Release the records.

Aug 11, 2004 - 4:07 pm 121. Katherine:

JDM,

For the record, as of 8th of December 2000 ñ a day when Florida Supreme Court decided that election rules are for suckers – I am a registered Republican. I voted for Bush in 2000 election because Al Gore scared the living daylight out of me. I was also a Clinton voter (shame, shame!), but at that time I was registered as an Independent. I have never been registered as Democrat, even when I was voting for them.

Aug 11, 2004 - 4:29 pm 122. Knucklehead:

John Moore:

I don’t claim to fully understand the Howard Stern anti-Bush campaign. It is akin to the anti-Patriot Act campaign as far as I can tell. People who don’t understand that We The People “own” the radio spectrum and license it out and have an Federal Communications Commission which long predates Bush are apparently not any more interested in trying to understand the details of the argument than are people who believe the Patriot Act allows Ashcroft to rummaging through their library records.

Stern went over the top (as he has been for years) and the FCC came down on him. Since Bush has more important things to worry about the Howard Stern apparently he left this to the FCC rather than firing the commissioner or whatever result the ill-informed wanted.

Aug 11, 2004 - 4:36 pm 123. Charlie (Colorado):

See here for a government description of the event. They give a shorter range than 2 klicks, but 2 rounds took out an Iraqi BMP.

Yeah, right. That story probably started with “this is no bullshit”, too.

They mention a 750 grain slug — so that’s about 48.6 grams. (48.599) 50 cal is 1.27 cm, so it’s about 5 cm^2; the specific gravity of lead is about 11.35. So a 750 grain bullet has a volume of about 4.3 cm^3, and we’re talking about a bullet much the size of my thumb.

Now, let’s get a look at the actual weapon. Notice that the first thing it says is that it’s chambered for the NATO 12.7×99 cartridge — in other words, the good old 50 cal BMG, the same cartridge fired by the good old Broawning Automatic Rifle.

When’s the last time you heard of someone blowing up an APC with a couple rounds from a BAR?

I’ll grant you that a lucky hit with a slug that size might set off ammo or something — which sounds like the story in the paper you linked, a lucky hit set off a secondary explosion — but the notion of a 50 cal “armor piercing incendiary” bullet that blows up APCs? I ain’t buying it.

Beyond that, did you notice who the report was prepared for? Rod Blagojevich and Henry Waxman, as part of their attempt to make 50 cal weapons illegal.

Hey, though — if you liked that story, wait till I tell you about the time my Dad stole a Navy bowling alley.

Aug 11, 2004 - 5:36 pm 124. Charlie (Colorado):

Richard, I’ve fired a BAR on several occasions; I’ve no doubt that it would penetrate light armor, with a little luck. But the the M82A1/XM107 has only got a 880 m/s muzzle velocity — less than an M14. It’s just a rifle.

Aug 11, 2004 - 5:48 pm 125. frendlydude2k:

“except in the case of those people who have been turned by Howard Stern.”

i work with such a person. these people are shallow, childish, small L libertarians who value skatology over all other things.

before stern turned, i could relate. remove “shallow, childish” and “over all other things” from above my ears burn.

Aug 11, 2004 - 6:35 pm 126. richard mcenroe:

Charlie(colorado), the GI BAR, as used by the US through the Korean war and the adoption of the 7.62 NATO (.308) round, was chambered for the .30 M1 cartridge, the classic .30-06. Fired a 7.62mm, 150 grain bullet.

The .50 BMG the Barrett fires is 12.7mm, weighs 709gr (FMJ-BT) at 2850fps. It’s enormously more powerful than any .30 cal. round. The version used in the 80’s, that I am familiar with, will penetrate an M113 at max effective range. The Barrett may give up some muzzle velocity because of its barrel length, but the round and the weapon is designed to engage hard targets at range. The SAS used them in the Saddam excavation to take out Scuds on their mobile launchers.

Aug 11, 2004 - 7:03 pm 127. M. Simon:

What is the War Hero Afraid of?

Form 180. Release the records.

Aug 11, 2004 - 7:09 pm 128. Charlie (Colorado):

By golly, John, you’re right — I had a brain fart and confounded the M1918A1 BAR with the M2 Browning 50 cal machine gun. Sorry.

However, it’s the M2 50 calibre that I used to fire in the ROTC familiarization course, and that I described: 700+ grain (49 grams, close enough) and 870+ m/s (2850 ft/s) muzzle velocity.

And you’re still dreaming if you really imagine that a round or two from a browning 50 cal can at all reliably destroy an APC. As I said, a lucky shot and a secondary explosion, maybe — but then, luck and a Zippo lighter can do it too.

Aug 11, 2004 - 7:46 pm 129. richard mcenroe:

Charlie(Colorado) ó Well, I ain’t driving the BTR downrange for the demonstration/practical application part of this exercise…

And talking about Stopping Power …remember, their guy can’t even throw the ball as far as home plate…

Aug 11, 2004 - 9:16 pm 130. Knucklehead:

Charlie:

This thread is probably long dead and how the heck it got OT into what a .50 cal (BMG) can and can’t do is beyond me, but… IIRC correctly (and its been 25+ years since I looked at anything about this and I ain’t going back, thanks) BMPs were notoriously thin-skinned APCs. I’m pretty sure they used to train us that putting a BMG on most any part of a BMP other than the front could easily yield a “kill”.

I didn’t read the link John provided far enough to see what damage is claimed to have been done to the “destroyed” BMP, but I don’t doubt for a moment that a well placed BMG round can pierce a BMP and put it out of action – a least momentarily. Also keep in mind that the rifle in queston is chambered for BMG ammunition but there is higher powered ammunition in the BMG factor and some of that is armor piercing (don’t know if its coated stuff or what, but large caliber rifle ammo has long been available in armor piercing congigs).

Aug 12, 2004 - 10:30 am 131. Charlie (Colorado):

Knuck, the link John had claimed a couple rounds from an M82A1/XM107 caused it to blow up and scared two other BMPs into surrendering. As I said, I don’t have any trouble believing that the other BMPs surrendered — after all, there were Iraqis surrendering to Italian TV cameras and UAVs — but I just find it difficult to believe that two 1/2 inch by < 1 inch slugs could blow up a BMP, even if they are “armor piercing and incendiary”.

Not unless they were Seaton and Crane special X loads.

(Special no-prize for anyone who gets that reference.)

Aug 12, 2004 - 11:53 am 132. richard mcenroe:

Charlie (Colorado) ó E.E. Smith jokes on a respectable blog? (”Wait! I’ve just discovered an even higher level of cosmic forces!”) Quit skylarking and get back to politics…

knucklehead ó The Israelis called the BMP the “Squad coffin.”

Aug 12, 2004 - 11:03 pm 133. Charlie (Colorado):

Charlie (Colorado) ó E.E. Smith jokes on a respectable blog?

Thank God someone got it, that’s all I can say.

Aug 13, 2004 - 1:52 pm 134. Roberts:

There are a couple of us old enough to recognize “Doc” Smith.

Aug 13, 2004 - 8:04 pm

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