I love the blogger in pajamas!

Sorry about your mom.

Older folks just loathe the guy.

My own mom, who is a naturally cheerful person, gets a tone of real venom in her voice when the subject of George Bush comes up.

A friend of mine said her own 80-year old mom told her George Bush “should be assassinated.”

Assassinated!

This is an 80-year old woman with major health problems.

I find that bizarre.

I also don’t believe that most polling is reflecting that 5% shift at all. Using out of date sample weighting allows a false perception to be widely dissemninatedshould have found based on previous polling, right?

So you’re endorsing Dick Morris’s argument about this?

Thanks! As you often do, you manage to be cogently analytical and funny in the same post!

Don’t worry…Nina won’t be looking for “evidence,” fresh or not, as she knows I never catch anything. And since Hot Creek is catch and release anyhow, assuming a miracle occurs and I land one, I’ll have to toss it back!

Jamie Irons

I haven’t thought much about the electoral vote side. I do believe that the battleground is down to six or at most eight states now. People keep focusing on the Gore vote in ‘00 and ignoring the ‘02 election. I believe that the ‘02 election was historical in nature and perhaps moreso than the ‘04 election will be. The ‘02 documented the 5% Republican shift and may have understated it. Many pundits put states that Gore won by more than 10% in the “safe” column. I don’t believe that to be true. I also don’t believe that most polling is reflecting that 5% shift at all. Using out of date sample weighting allows a false perception to be widely dissemninated. If you shift the sample by 5% suddenly you have a different electoral map. I really don’t have a feel for the Dem stay at home yet. Kerry has inspired the lowest level of loyalty that I’ve seen so it is very hard to judge where this will wind up.

Watch the campaigns, if Kerry starts spending time in NJ and/or CA then we could see W over 400 on Nov. 2.

I’ll look over the splits while you’re “fishing” (be sure that you buy the freshest “evidence” available before you head home). If you forget to cash all your chips, just throw them away, it’s safer.

———-

Recent correspondence with my 80-year old mom in CT:

Me: [an aside in an email about medical stuff, hurricanes, my cat, etc.] Did you hear about Dan Rather and Sixty Minutes using fake memos to attack Bush’s National Guard service? Wooowie, what a scandal it’s becoming.

Mom’s response: I had to laugh at your reaction to the CBS news about Bush’s service in the National Guard. Where were you when the Bush team was smearing Kerry’s service and wounds in the Viet Nam War? I’ll be glad when the elections are over. The issues are what interest me, like Bush’s War in Iraq and the way Social Security is being scrapped in order to get the money into Wall Street, etc. etc..You and I will never see eye to eye on the politics going on today – you hear what you want to hear and I do the same, so don’t bring up the subject to me anymore. You listen only to the Far Right expounders and I avoid them like the plague.

Emphasis mine.

Sigh.

BTW, I consider email public, not private, but this is the first time (I remember, anyway) that I’ve quoted email without permission. So be it.

Goddamn showoffs.

Thanks!

Rick

Funny, as usual.

Now that you’re out of the bat cave, what’s your take on Kerry’s electoral chances at this moment? (Asked with straight face.)

Jamie Irons

I understand that they believe they’ve chosen “C”. I’m also pretty sure that when the histories are written 25 years hence it will be clear that they chose “A” overwhelmingly. Self-delusion.

Jamie,

It’s very hard to say but the partialy erased phrase:

Word2000 is a regis

may provide a hint.