100 Comments

1. Howard:

The DNC is sending, or causing to be sent, more than ten million emails to college students warning them of the draft. It’s a very hot piece. The email states the Republicans are going to do it right after election and references a House Bill. Problem is the House Bill referenced is a Democratic Bill but up by Charles Rangel and other House Black Caucus members. The DNC hopes the college guys won’t get it.

Sep 22, 2004 - 1:40 pm 2. ambisinistral:

It is really another one of his strange strategies. I think he is trying to work off of the Selective Service planning document written in case they did have to reinstate the draft. However, all it is going to lead to is the fact that it is the Democrats who have proposed the draft bill.

BTW, that email about the draft, or a similar one, has been floating around for a long time. I remember my son, now a Senior at UF, bringing it up last year. He didn’t take it seriously then because he hadn’t ready anything about it on the online news sites he frequents.

Sep 22, 2004 - 1:40 pm 3. Richard Nieporent:

Is that before or after they do away with social security and bring back slavery?

Sep 22, 2004 - 1:55 pm 4. Mark Poling:

Roger, it looks like a coordinated strategy.

(Scroll down to the UPDATE.)

Expect massive blowback onto the DNC Real Soon Now. Just like in Rathergate, the story of the smear will be rolling through the gestalt before the original smear gets out of first gear.

And of course, the audience the smear was supposed to frighten is exactly the most media-hip and tech-savvy part of the electorate.

And they’re an audience that really, really, really hates being taken for patsies.

Do the Democrats really want to be the minority party for the next generation?

Sep 22, 2004 - 1:58 pm 5. David Thomson:

I have also objected to John Kerry on psychological grounds. He truly does not seem to be wrapped too tight. A US senator should clearly know that the draft makes no sense whatsoever in todayís military. The training alone takes about two full years just for someone to become ready for combat duty. No longer is a six week training course considered adequate.

Does this indicate that the Kerry campaign is getting desperate? Yup, their own polling must be terrifying. They donít seem to be receiving much satisfaction from Zogby. I donít want to become overly confident, but things do look good. Anyway, a healthy uneasiness keeps us on our toes.

Sep 22, 2004 - 2:02 pm 6. Dishman:

John Kerry was born to be President!

We are sheeple!

Take a warm fuzzy moment, and imagine him (ab)using the Presidency the way he’s run his campaign.

Sep 22, 2004 - 2:16 pm 7. Cap'n Billy:

Next time someone tells you that GWB is planning to reintroduce the draft refer them to HR 163. Note the sponsor & co-sponsors.

Sep 22, 2004 - 2:23 pm 8. Sandy P:

OT: Bros. Judd has this:

The right-hand man of al-Qaida’s suspected leader in Iraq, Abu Misaab Zarqawi, was apparently killed in Abu Ghraib west of Baghdad, reports said Wednesday.

Car, meet missile.

Sep 22, 2004 - 2:27 pm 9. Mark Poling:

Dishman, that’s the really frightening thing. If his campaign is a demonstration of the kind of team Kerry would bring to the White House, I’m afraid he’d make Carter look good by comparison.

Sep 22, 2004 - 2:27 pm 10. Katherine:

ìI have also objected to John Kerry on psychological grounds. He truly does not seem to be wrapped too tight.î

David, ìNuttier than an almond tree in Augustî was the phrase used by our inestimable Rick Ballard, when I wondered about the poor donkeyís mental health myself. I think this diagnosis tells you all you need to know about JFK 1.4.

Sep 22, 2004 - 2:30 pm 11. David Thomson:

ìDavid, ìNuttier than an almond tree in Augustî was the phrase used by our inestimable Rick Ballardî

I am not trying to be mean spirited. John Kerry comes across to me as someone who is psychologically disturbed. Evidence? Only around a year ago, Kerry bragged to a female reporter about his alleged swift boat trips to Cambodia. He even went so far as to claim that a CIA operative gave him his own hat. The odds that this ever happened are extremely unlikely. Inventing such a fable is beyond me. I would burst out laughing. Itís something utterly alien to my character. And I suspect that most people think this way. If so, what should that tell you concerning Kerryís mental state? Also, I notice his various comments—like the one this afternoon. A military draft? Everybody who has half a brain in their head knows that this is utterly ridiculous. Yet Kerry didnít hesitate. Is he sleep deprived? On medication? What explains such weird behavior?

Sep 22, 2004 - 2:45 pm 12. Johan Amedeus Metesky:

The Media Fund is running ads on Black radio stations that say that Bush used his rich daddy to avoid the “Vietnam Draft”. Concurrent with all this is the distribution of millions of emails that circulate the draft urban legend.

This is a coordinated strategy.

Sep 22, 2004 - 2:55 pm 13. DennisThePeasant:

In All Fairness To Kerry…

If you assume a 4 month tour of active duty for all combat personnel and no re-enlistments, you’d need to have a draft. On the other hand, if all the vets in the Reserves were over in Baghdad having meetings with representatives of the Iraqi “minutemen”, the logistics of a call up wouldn’t be too bad…so you might be able to get by without a draft.

So it ends up being very Kerryesque…maybe you need one and maybe you don’t!

Sep 22, 2004 - 2:58 pm 14. Pat Curley:

There are innumerable instances of Kerry making up stories; the magic hat is just one of them. In the summer of 2003 he told the Boston Globe a gripping tale of how he and his Swift boat crew delivered a breech-birth child to a Vietnamese woman. This dramatic tale somehow did not appear in the official Kerry biography, Tour of Duty, but it does appear in an early 1980s WWII movie called The Big Red One. What was the Woody Allen movie where the guy goes into the movie himself; The Purple Rose of Cairo? That’s Kerry; Christmas in Cambodia is obviously Kerry living the part played by Martin Sheen in Apocalypse Now.

Check out some of the posts Tom Maguire has made on Kerry’s sleepwalking adventures as well. He’s one sick puppy.

Sep 22, 2004 - 3:11 pm 15. Katherine:

David, before I form an opinion about a person I try to find out something about him/her.

Everything that I have leaned so far about John Kerry leads me to believe that he has few screws loose. We had the magic hat, Christmas in Cambodia, confessions of atrocities, and inability to hold any policy position for any period longer that the speech that he gives to the target audience. We were treated to his confessions of his favorite way to stalk a dear (crawling on the belly with his trusty 12 gauge), and his favorite weapon (Communist Chinese assault rifle), saw him snowboarding with a big yellow daisy attached to his jacket, yelling at his security detail for making him fall and declaringî I donít fall downî. The list goes on. And this does not even address the madness of his presidential campaign and his often-declared preferences for dictators (euphemism used is ìstabilityî), disdain for freedom, disdain for America, and worship of bureaucracy.

I am not trying to be mean (well, not meaner than my normal self) but this guy is not completely there. I suspect there is a good reason why he does not release his medical records. The list of his meds must be quite impressive.

Sep 22, 2004 - 3:15 pm 16. Pilgrim:

“A US senator should clearly know that the draft makes no sense whatsoever in todayís military.”

David,

You are assuming that Kerry me back to ole virginy is in fact a real senator. He spends more time wind surfing than legislating. I expect he has no idea what military capabilities are. If you look real close there is probably a windsurf board on his coat-of-arms. DNC stands for does not compute.

Sep 22, 2004 - 3:18 pm 17. mongai:

The Kerry the warrior convention, “fortunate son”, the draft is coming…it is all a coordinated strategy. A game plan. Planned sometime in July if I had to guess. It has a momentum of its own that will continue all the way until November. The Democrats aren’t very good at calling audibles. If this is somehow close to the truth the how and why of those forged documents becomes more understandable. Did they draw up the game plan and then needed the documents to make it come true, or did they think they had the documents (John Ellis says people were talking about having the goods on Bush early on this year)and around them created this strategy. The strategy would not of worked even if perfectly executed. Even if the documents were irrefutable. Prince Harry turned noble King always beats Hotspur the Warrior Hippie.

Sep 22, 2004 - 3:22 pm 18. Mark Poling:

Pat, do you have a link to the breech birth story? If you’ll pardon the expression, that one might have legs….

Sep 22, 2004 - 3:34 pm 19. ambisinistral:

In listing Kerry’s numerous… ah… anecdotes, how could you all forget VC the Wonder Dog?

Sep 22, 2004 - 3:36 pm 20. John Moore ( Useful Fools ):

Kerry really does to have a screw loose. And one who lies the way he does, about the subjects he does is especially scary. This guy should not be trusted anywhere near the levers of power.

It will be interesting to see how this coordinated dirty tricks campaign will be noted by the MSM. Anyone think they will notice?

Sep 22, 2004 - 4:03 pm 21. mongai:

Notice? They seem to be part of the team orchestrating it. But that’s old media. The blogosphere notices. Fox also notices and is making a bunch of money in the process. Most importantly John Moore notices.

Sep 22, 2004 - 4:16 pm 22. Old Grouch:

Thoughts from the Department of Dirty Tricks:

Well, someone could always circulate another e-mail pointing out the sponsors of HR 163 (as Cap’n Billy noted above), and then drawing the “obvious” conclusion that reinstatement of the draft must actually be part of the Kerry Secret Plan To End The War, since his Democrat buddies already have enabling legislation in place :-).

And no, my first name isn’t Karl and I don’t live in Washington. ;o)

Sep 22, 2004 - 5:01 pm 23. Occam's Beard:

I’m with ambisinistral: VC the Wonder Dog is the best story of all. I’d never play poker with the reporter he told that one to; anyone who could keep a straight face on hearing that story is WAY out of my league. Perhaps he feigned a coughing fit.

For insight into Kerry’s psychology, the truth content of the stories is irrelevant. The telling part is that he doesn’t seem to realize just how ludicrous the stories will sound to someone else, which suggests he lacks even minimal insight into others, which in turn suggests more than a touch of pathology.

Never mind whether VC the Wonder Dog really did fly through the air and land on the deck of another boat (I know, I know). Most people telling such a story would be at pains to emphasize that they knew how improbable it sounded, but would swear it was true nonetheless. They would anticipate the listener’s scepticism because they would recognize how far-fetched it was going to sound.

Someone recounting the story seriously (i.e., not pulling someone’s leg) without doing that, acting as though of course dogs fly through the air and land on other boats all the time, nothing noteworthy there, sounds as though he didn’t recognize the incongruity of his story with other people’s perception of reality.

The same point holds for the Magic Hat story, and to a lesser extent the excellent Cambodia adventure (”Welcome to the unit, lieutenant. Remember: port=left, starboard=right. Now we want you to do a top-secret run into Cambodia tonight…”).

That tin ear for others, coupled with the vanity, the touchiness when criticized, the unwillingness to accept personal responsibility (the Secret Service makes him fall, his staff screwed up his campaign) make me wonder if he and Al Gore could get together to negotiate a bulk discount on anti-psychotic meds.

Sep 22, 2004 - 5:27 pm 24. Mark Poling:

Sorry for the cold water, but…

Kerry is sane. He may have issues with telling the truth (for whatever reason), he may be vain, he may be insecure, he may be a lot of things that can be described using the DSM-IV, but psychotic isn’t one of them.

I dislike him intensely too, and don’t think he’d be good for the country as President. But let’s not break out the torches and the dogs and hunt down the monster just yet, hmmm?

Sep 22, 2004 - 5:48 pm 25. DennisThePeasant:

Today in Florida Kerry told the story of a Viet Cong soldier named Phred that he met during his tour. It turns out they became good friends. Now that’s the kind of heartwarming story you won’t see in any newspaper…especially the comics section.

Sep 22, 2004 - 5:53 pm 26. Yehudit:

Tommy Franks just laid the smackdown on Kerry.

Sep 22, 2004 - 5:54 pm 27. mongai:

(Having just erased what I had written.)

Thanks for the cold water Mark Poling.

Sep 22, 2004 - 5:56 pm 28. mongai:

I feel much better know. Funny how easy it is to get carried away.

Sep 22, 2004 - 5:56 pm 29. mongai:

Yehudit,

Ouch. Franks, Koch, Miller, Giuliani and the list goes on. They can give a whole lotta hurt to Kerry anytime they choose.

Sep 22, 2004 - 6:02 pm 30. Katherine:

Mark,

Of course he is medically sane. A person can have all sorts of personality problems and remain completely sane. However, in my judgment he demonstrated such an interesting combination of traits that I donít want him anywhere near the Oval Office. Like I said on some other thread, I can imagine him one day ransoming hostages and next day launching nuclear attack. And God knows what would be his target.

Kerry really would be much better off doing something innocuous like writing another version of his life memoirs. He could fantasize to his heart content, and we can sleep safely at night.

Sep 22, 2004 - 6:16 pm 31. Sandy P:

Kind of OT, Roger. It seems you have competition, via LGF:

My Teleprompter is Deadly

Iowahawk has created what may be his masterpiece: the Rathergate saga as hard-boiled dime novel, rushing at you like the hot kiss at the end of a wet fist….

***

MY TELEPROMPTER IS DEADLY

(Excerpts from the new Inspector Dan Rather Mystery by David Burge)

It was a slow September night in Manhattan. The kind of sweaty summer night when the mean streets of Gotham run wild with the shadowy scum of the Republican National Convention. The kind of night when mysteries are born. The kind of night I live for.

My name is Rather. And Iím a dick….

Sep 22, 2004 - 6:23 pm 32. Yehudit:

LOL, Dennis.

Sep 22, 2004 - 6:23 pm 33. Terrye:

I don’t know if Kerry is insane in any clinical sense of the word, but I do think he is weird. Strange. Out of his depth. Obnoxious. Hypocritical. Oppurtunistic. Manipulative. Dishonest.

All of which confounds the people, disheartens the troops and gives comfort to the enemy.

This is just my opinion of course. And I am only one of the digital brown shirts.

Sep 22, 2004 - 6:25 pm 34. Mark Poling:

Katherine, I know what you mean, especially about not having a clue which way Kerry would jump in a crisis, or whether he could deal with a true crisis at all.

There’s a point where we go from discussing a person’s faults to demonizing the person. The Democrats have institutionalized demonization, and I don’t think Republicans (and those who plan on voting Republican this fall) should fall into the same trap. (Fun though it can be, especially with a candidate like Kerry who provides so much raw material.)

Otherwise…

Inspector Kemp : A riot is an ugly thing… undt, I tink, that it is chust about time ve had vun.

Sep 22, 2004 - 6:30 pm 35. chuck:

Do the Democrats really want to be the minority party for the next generation?

Probably not, but we can hope. Just remember that the radical boomers will be cutting edge and hip until they die, the kids just gotta love them, no

Seriously, I think what we need is a change in musical styles to celebrate a new generation. Something Rolling Stone does *not* think is hip.

Sep 22, 2004 - 6:31 pm 36. mongai:

A politician is the last thing Kerry should have become. He was put up to it by his father and then used by Ted Kennedy during the Vietnam era. I almost feel sorry for the guy. There are so many other things he could have done with his life, and done well, and as Catherine said we’d all be able to sleep safely at night if he had only chosen a more suitable calling. But Kerry as President scares me too. Have we ever had a President who was not stable, I did not say insane, in the way Kerry seems to be? Politicians are often “nuts”, but this seems different.

Sep 22, 2004 - 6:35 pm 37. DennisThePeasant:

Sandy P-

The novel starts out well, but I do have one criticism:

My name is Rather. And I’m a dick….

That’s repetition.

Sep 22, 2004 - 6:36 pm 38. Rick Ballard:

Weird, strange, out of his depth, obnoxious, hypocritical, opportunistic, manipulative, dishonest.

That’s odd. Teddy Kennedy’s picture is next to that definition in my political almanac. Perhaps there’s something in the water in MA?

Kerry is certainly all those things but first, foremost and forever he’s a Kennedy machine hack who couldn’t be elected dogcatcher outside of MA. It really is no more complicated than that.

Sep 22, 2004 - 6:43 pm 39. DennisThePeasant:

mongai-

Mortician?

All-

Actually, if Kerry keeps this up for a few more days, I’m going to start taking bets on whether he shows up for the first debate in a Batman costume…

Edwards has kind of a Robin aura to him…“Holy Swiftboats, Batman! It’s ‘Nam all over again!”

Sep 22, 2004 - 6:44 pm 40. Sandy P:

But, Dennis, sometimes repetition is the only way of getting the point across.

Sep 22, 2004 - 6:44 pm 41. Mark Poling:

Mongai:

Have we ever had a President who was not stable, I did not say insane, in the way Kerry seems to be? Politicians are often “nuts”, but this seems different.

Nixon. Very thin skin, borderline paranoid, prone to outbursts of rage. I vaguely remember accusations of alcohol abuse and delusional behavior, but I got those impressions through the media, so who knows?

But at least he was wicked smart.

Sep 22, 2004 - 6:48 pm 42. Katherine:

ìThe Democrats have institutionalized demonization, and I don’t think Republicans (and those who plan on voting Republican this fall) should fall into the same trap.î

Mark, again of course you are right. But to properly demonize a person you have to hate, and as much as try I cannot bring myself to expand so much emotion on Kerry.

Sep 22, 2004 - 6:49 pm 43. DennisThePeasant:

Bill Burkett as Riddler

Dan Rather as Joker

Mary Mapes as Cat Woman

Bill Clinton as Commissioner Gordon

James Carville as Chief O’Hara

To quote Dr. Frodrick Fronkesteen…

“It…could…work!”

Sep 22, 2004 - 6:49 pm 44. Mark Poling:

Cold water just gets DennisThePeasant worked up.

Edwards has kind of a Robin aura to him…”Holy Swiftboats, Batman! It’s ‘Nam all over again!”

But on DtP, it looks good.

Sep 22, 2004 - 6:51 pm 45. DennisThePeasant:

Sandy P-

True. In this case, however, it strikes me as needless repetition.

Sep 22, 2004 - 6:56 pm 46. Mark Poling:

Oh, hell:

“A riot is an ugly thing… undt, I tink, that it is chust about time ve had vun.”

Let Mark Steyn do the honors.

Sep 22, 2004 - 7:06 pm 47. ambisinistral:

I am not a doctor, but I will still give my carefully thought out diagnosis of Kerry — he’s a BSing doofus.

Sep 22, 2004 - 7:16 pm 48. richard mcenroe:

Oh, hell, drag the little snotnoses out of their classroom and put them through a few weeks of basic training… it sure made a man out of Dan Rather…

Are these people thinking more than five minutes ahead? Has it not occurred to them that all Bush has to do at the first debate is hold up a copy of the e-mail and say, “What the hell?”

Sep 22, 2004 - 7:18 pm 49. Syl:

LOL

Love you guys (and that word is gender neutral).

FWIW, I believe it’s the Clinton guys coming into the mix of the Kerry campaign that have triggered the escalation of lying and dirty tricks.

I never thought I’d say it, but no matter how ‘incompetent’ Mary Beth Cahill may have been even if true, there was at least a modicum of restraint.

It’s really sinking in how much damage Clinton and his minions did to our political process.

Sep 22, 2004 - 7:18 pm 50. mongai:

Mark Poling,

Nixon. Sure. But some of the qualities you list for Nixon like thin-skinned and prone to rage I almost wish Kerry had. He just seems to be in his own strange quiet world-tick,tick,tick,tick,tick. Dennis thought mortician might have been a better career choice. This seems to capture it (no offense meant to our mortician friends). Lincoln was also melancholy, but brilliant. Even Nixon was in his own way brilliant. But Kerry seems a bit dull. Dull and delusional worries me. But you make a good point. My impressions are just that, impressions created through the media and the blogosphere. But where there is so much smoke….

Sep 22, 2004 - 7:24 pm 51. Katherine:

Mark,

That was a riot indeedÖ

Sep 22, 2004 - 7:27 pm 52. jedrury:

All this talk about The War Hero’s sanity can

be dealt with by taking a walk to your local bookstore and briefly reviewing Brinkley’s book on Kerry (Tour of Duty) and the new photo album with the candidate in his battle jacket on the deck of some yacht.

Brinkley’s book is a pure hagiography. Why anyone would refer to that book as a basis for objectivity is beyond me.

The photo book is just plain weird. It’s as if this guy has been in Central Casting since Yale, waiting for that right moment to be on stage

as JFK Redux. We see him now in that familiar campaign pose; coming on stage punching the air, saluting the crowd, eating the mike for lunch.

But seeing him in these photos, one realizes that his whole life is one damn photo shoot.

Ready, Aim, Smile !!

Ready, Aim, Grimace !

Sep 22, 2004 - 7:34 pm 53. Terrye:

Mark Steyn never disapoints me.

Syl:

Not only are they dirty tricks, they are stupid dirty tricks.

Sep 22, 2004 - 7:39 pm 54. Rick Ballard:

While I, of course, would never stoop to the use of schoolyard epithets to descripe that lying, crapweasel pondscum, I can certainly understand how some could be driven to such unseemly behavior.

Seriously, I hope that all of you take the time to carefully read the speech that the esteemed junior senator from MA gave on Monday. This is the one the press is drooling over because, according to them, it opens up the “necessary debate” concerning Iraq. Read the speech and then try and calculate how many people have to die for it to make a poll moving point. I quit counting lies when I got to 15, I’m sure others can do better. He’s not mad but he is very, very dangerous. And he’s rooting for the wrong side, just like he did 32 years ago.

Sep 22, 2004 - 7:45 pm 55. mongai:

Thanks for the link! Your sentiment is shared.

Sep 22, 2004 - 8:05 pm 56. Occam's Beard:

Kerry is sane. He may have issues with telling the truth (for whatever reason), he may be vain, he may be insecure, he may be a lot of things that can be described using the DSM-IV, but psychotic isn’t one of them.

I dislike him intensely too, and don’t think he’d be good for the country as President. But let’s not break out the torches and the dogs and hunt down the monster just yet, hmmm?

No argument on any point.

I meant neither to imply he was insane, nor to demonize him, as some have thought. Mea culpa if I gave that impression.

My intention was to convey my unease with the emotional balance of a man who aspires to run the country. Kerry seems to be generating several hundred milliGore of, shall we say, eccentricity?

Sep 22, 2004 - 8:07 pm 57. TmjUtah:

DtP -

“Phred”.

Geeze. We’re OLD. I liked Doonesbury for about four years then just gave up.

I liked “Hunting for Hippies”, from the same collection as “Phred”.

I don’t remember the characters, but it was a father and son out in a wheat field…dad in plaid jacket carrying a double barrel shotgun. I paraphrase:

“O.K. boy, call ‘em in, just like I showed you.”

Son cradles hands around mouth - “Socialized Healthcare! Food Stamps Here, Today Only! We have cheese!”

Up pops a guy in shades, beads, and dasheki - “Cool man. What kind?”

“GOOD boy!” Laughed until I couldn’t breath…

On Topic:

Surely at least some of those emails have been sloppily forwarded? As in with the addressee blocks visible? Somebody ought to send the straight scoop back down the line.

In artillery we called that counterfire.

I agree that this last few weeks of flailing about on the part of the Kerry team (ha - more like Brownie Troop 242 showing up to face the Bears) has smelled of something that was intended to be a strategy. The content and execution has been laughable, with the exception of the forgery fraud, which is beneath contempt. Trying to crucify Bush on issues he’s NEVER RUN ON beyond biographical entries, the sudden attempted Vietnamization of the war, and now this draft thing.

Just when did he plan to give anybody a reason to vote for him?

Great job by Franks, by the way. It’s these little interjections by adults that keep screwing up the tantrum that Kerry is performing and the media is trying to sell. It’s not working. 70/30 on TradeSport for a while today. Fork time.

Sep 22, 2004 - 8:09 pm 58. Mork:

Can’t have it both ways, fellas.

If you want to stabilize Iraq or take military action against Iran or Syria, there’s going to have to be a draft (of some sort).

So, which do you think the Administration is planning to do?

Sep 22, 2004 - 8:13 pm 59. ambisinistral:

TmjUtah,

Oh yea? Speaking of camics, do you remember Fat Freddy eating roof rabbits?

Sep 22, 2004 - 8:20 pm 60. ambisinistral:

Er… camics=comics

Sep 22, 2004 - 8:20 pm 61. ambisinistral:

Gee Mork, only two options? What if there is a third? Or a fourth? Or a…

Sep 22, 2004 - 8:22 pm 62. richard mcenroe:

You don’t really need Kraft-Ebing to explain John Kerry.

Caligula will do fine. Or Richard III.

Sep 22, 2004 - 8:27 pm 63. kellymo:

Hey! Mork’s back! Troll tossing time, Dennis!

Sep 22, 2004 - 8:29 pm 64. Mark Poling:

Mork, have you looked at US force utilization statistics? I have. I’m not an expert, but as I recall something under 40% of our combat troops currently support operations in Iraq.

If I’m doing my math right, that leaves 60% to play with.

The draft is a bogeyman for children of the 70s. The DNC is looking old and slow about now.

Sep 22, 2004 - 8:31 pm 65. Jamie Irons:

Oh, boy! Mork is back!

I think if we want to invade China, Indonesia and Malaysia (and I’m pretty sure Bu$Hitler is planning that by early next spring) we’re going to need to draft anything that walks, including me.

And of course we should concentrate on the poor. And the illiterate.

And the unemployed. And the uninsured.

Jamie Irons

Sep 22, 2004 - 8:33 pm 66. TmjUtah:

Mork -

G.W. Bush wants to stablilze Iraq, and by extension usher in a new era for all the peoples of the middle east. Please understand I admire him for it.

You seem to equate winning with administering the defeated. That’s a humanitarian sentiment and I salute you for it. What people don’t take into account is that we have more than enough combat power on the ground or floating offshore in theater to reduce the Arab middle east to a pre-industrial state. That’s the way wars are usually fought. This one will be if the Iranians become nuclear armed.

The reality is that if we are attacked by Iranian surrogates armed or supported by the mullahocracy, we could end their rule within a week. And there’s NOTHING they can do about it. Given our political landscape, I think we are going to move ahead the same way we are now right up until the moment we a) get actionable intelligence that survives vetting that Iran is on the verge of nuke capability or b) we get hit at home again, hard.

We won’t have a problem recruiting. We won’t be nation building any more.

Sep 22, 2004 - 8:34 pm 67. David [.net]:

We had several more active divisions just a dozen years ago. Didn’t take a draft.

Sep 22, 2004 - 8:36 pm 68. Mork:

Mark - I think it’s a little less than that, but you’re nuts if you draw comfort from it being “only” 40%.

It’s obvious that what we have there now is not enough to succeed in the long term, so we either need to increase that level or give up on Iraq. So that number has to increase, or you need to drop one of the goals.

Now, you can’t imagine that either Iran or Syria could be done with less than we used in Iraq - Iran is, in fact, has roughly three times the population of Iraq. So that would be another 30-odd percent.

Then you may need to deal with Afghanistan … in case you hadn’t noticed, the Taliban is back and they and the warlords have whittled back our control to basically a few of the major cities. So, another decision: increase the force there or let that return to being an Al Qaeda base.

And then you need to have a standby force to defend the U.S., and to be ready to deal with a real threat, like, say, North Korea or a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

So something’s gotta give: we have to have a draft, or rethink our committments.

BTW - my own view is that we won’t have a draft - whoever wins the election will cut and run from Iraq, because they know that the situation won’t change.

Sep 22, 2004 - 8:41 pm 69. Mork:

The reality is that if we are attacked by Iranian surrogates armed or supported by the mullahocracy, we could end their rule within a week.

We could physically destroy large chunks of Tehran, but the only way to end the mullahocracy is to replace it with something else that has the military might on the grount to prevent the existing organs of state (including the Iranian military) from reasserting control.

The only practical way to do that is to occupy the place.

Which won’t achieve anything anyway (see Iraq).

Sep 22, 2004 - 8:45 pm 70. Syl:

Mork

Your premise: “It’s obvious that what we have there now is not enough to succeed in the long term, so we either need to increase that level or give up on Iraq.”

Is wrong.

No, it’s not obvious at all. We don’t need more troops, we need more intelligence data. Which we’re getting from the Iraqis. All we need is the coordinates and Kaboom, there goes another safe house.

You’re fighting the wrong war.

Sep 22, 2004 - 8:45 pm 71. Mark Poling:

Mork, every analysis I’ve seen has said Iraq had the most formidable military in the region (excluding Israel and Pakistan’s nukes, of course.) And of course, if Syria gets frisky we could always offer it up to Turkey for long-term administration…

Our biggest problem with Iraq was we won way too quickly. A war that was supposed to take months took weeks. That’s a big reason the reconstruction got off to such a bad start. We outran our supply chain. Oh well.

And TmjUtah is correct, we’re not going in as destroyers. If we need to change modes, we can do it.

Defend the homeland? Against who, Canada? Mexico?

North Korea goes nuclear on someone? A couple of carrier groups regress NK beyond their current Stone Age society.

So yeah, we’ve tied down 40% of our combat assets doing what is basically really dangerous Peace Corps duties. That’s because we’re the good guys. Throw another 40% in, and take the gloves off to boot, and the rest of the region is a parking lot. So no, I’m not real worried.

I hope the Peace Corps thing starts working better, because I like wearing the white hat. But really dude, the whole world will be happier when everyone realises the white hat is optional.

Sep 22, 2004 - 8:55 pm 72. Rick Ballard:

Here we have the meme du jour steaming hot and straight from the donkeys ass. 41 days of “surrender while there’s still time” to go. Read the Monday speech and marvel at how quickly the memebots are programmed.

Wait till you see what’s cooked up for after the terror strike.

Sep 22, 2004 - 8:59 pm 73. RogerA:

Mork: I have to agree with Syl: you are fighting the wrong war. IMHO Iran has enough opposition within the regime to be destabilized by a relatively small force of special ops folks; the Iranians are much more likely to take matters into their own hands if their resistance could be guaranteed by something as mundane as air power.

I see nothing in the recent military history of arab efforts in fighting ground warfare that suggests to me they are in any sense a competent military force (and that is NOT meant as a racist statement: it reflects the results of conflicts with “western” including Israeli forces against Arab forces).

It seems to me that we are in a situation similar to WWII (ETO) where the Nazis have counterattacked in the Ardennes–is it failure? could be–we will have to wait and see, but this is not the time to cut and run. Recall Al-Zarquari’s letter to bin-laden about the urgent need to not let elections occur. In addition, the terrorists have taken the lessons from Somalia and Beirut: put pressure on the Americans and they will leave. Finally, they have taken the lessons of Tet and are playing as much to American media as they are to Arab media.

We have the force structure to do much much more.

Sep 22, 2004 - 9:00 pm 74. Mork:

IMHO Iran has enough opposition within the regime to be destabilized by a relatively small force of special ops folks; the Iranians are much more likely to take matters into their own hands if their resistance could be guaranteed by something as mundane as air power.

Now, where have I heard that before?

I just don’t know how reality could have slapped you in the face more firmly than it has in this last year. I cannot fathom the persistence of these fantasies.

Sep 22, 2004 - 9:07 pm 75. RogerA:

Thank you, Mork, for your insightful critique of my opinion. I look forward to more enlightened discussion.

Sep 22, 2004 - 9:09 pm 76. Rick Ballard:

RogerA,

My understanding is that a brigade today can deliver approximately the same degree of lethality as a division could in ‘91. Is that consonant with your understanding?

Sep 22, 2004 - 9:10 pm 77. Rick Ballard:

It’s just a memebot, RogerA, there’s really no need to treat it as a sentient being.

Sep 22, 2004 - 9:13 pm 78. RogerA:

Rick Ballard: yes in a nutshell. The other issues have to do with your post war efforts in such things as occupation and security. Mork’s “critique” of my comment nothwithstanding, I would not foresee as operation in Iran as requiring a any major post conflict commitment. Iran is highly nationalistic and not nearly as diverse a country as is Iraq. Any attempt to “occupy” Iran would be an unmitigated disaster.

Sep 22, 2004 - 9:14 pm 79. RogerA:

Thanks, Rick–I am secure in manhood even if I blog in pajamas!

Mork’s approach thought is what is scary. We did make some significant errors in Iraq. Rick Shinseki was correct in his assessment of post war commitment that would be required–errors aside, however, none of that makes the effort worthwhile, and more significantly none of that means we should get out. What I am concerned about is the impression I get from Mork is that all situations are the same as Iraq–and that is not the right lesson.

As was pointed out earlier, North Korea is not a big problem militarily should we choose to go nuclear on them–sounds harsh? perhaps–but it wouldn’t involve any significant expenditure of forces. Seems to me we have to focus on the specific capabilities of each potential adversary we face and guage our actions to their potential responses.

Sep 22, 2004 - 9:21 pm 80. Rick Ballard:

RogerA,

I think the most misunderstood factor in Iraq was the lack of trained up and effective non-Sunni officers. The Sunni simply can’t be trusted and the necessary Shia officers are untrained and untried. They really do need to be blooded in Fallujah or Samaara. We can provide tight and heavy support but the Shia Iraqis are going to have to learn how to kick the Sunni thugs butts with discipline and rigor.

Perhaps Shinseki’s suggested force levels would have been better but I’m not sure that four more divisions could suppress this if the rules remained at the kid glove level. We’ll see what happens after the election.

Sep 22, 2004 - 9:31 pm 81. Mork:

RogerA - OK, if you want your post to be rebutted seriously, the reason you are a fantasist is that, as Iraq proves, our involvment in any regime change in the middle east guarantees that the new regime will face a violent and widespread internal opposition.

Maybe we could provoke a civil war in Iran, if we tried.

But actively changing the regime to one that we prefer? A fantasy.

Sep 22, 2004 - 9:34 pm 82. RogerA:

Rick–Shenseki was also talking about a pure occupation force based on earlier more classical military experience-Critics of the occupation nothwithstanding, Falluja, Ramadi and the Sunni triangle could be “pacified” in relatively short order, albeit with great loss of life (none of which the shiites or kurds would bemoan, BTW). I do agree the issue requires taking the longer term view and writing off the sunnis in favor of the shiites and kurds–that may mean the sunnis become displaced, but in the long run, that might lead to a more stable Iraq.

Sep 22, 2004 - 9:36 pm 83. mwalls:

RogerA, in the last 150 years, I can only think of one occassion where an arab army made a presentable showing against a western army (1972 Egyptians against the Israelis), the arabs still lost but was not an outright stomping. As a general rule I would say, since the Siege of Vienna, the West has had it pretty much in the bag (add in all the arab cultural baggage and lack of a native military tech base makes if even worse).

Dealing with the Mideast is mostly a breaking eggs problem: If we don’t mind breaking eggs, it’s not a problem. Fortunately, we are trying for a better solution than Wretchard’s 3rd Conjecture.

As far as restoring divisions that were foolishly disbanded in the 90’s, I would figure about 7 years till fully restore effectiveness (maybe sooner but, I’ll stick with what the Romans thought). Drafting troops really doesn’t help (no cadres, no equipment pool). The difference will be comparable to WWI British pre-war ‘Old Comtempibles’ and later WWI conscripts in effectiveness.

Sep 22, 2004 - 9:54 pm 84. Kevin P:

Roger:

This is another fine example of Kerry-Rather logic.The entire Bush administration has been crystal clear about not re-instating the draft.The pending legislation for bringing back the draft is sponsored by the democrats.Any sane man would look at those two facts and of course come to the conclusion that Bush is planning to bring back the draft.Of course this is the same group that brought us fake but accurrate and I voted for the 87 billion before I voted against it. I guess that Rangel is another politician who seems to be a Democrat but in reality is a slave of that evil genius Rove.He put a chip in his brain and made him sponsor the Draft bill so yes it is fair for Kerry to claim that Bush is going to bring back the draft and it is not fair to blame the Democrats who introduced the Draft bill because they are just unwitting tools of Haliburton, evil genius Rove and Bush-Hitler.It is very simple if you just approach in a nuanced manner.

Sep 22, 2004 - 10:07 pm 85. RogerA:

mwalls: You, of course, are absolutely correct to cite the success of the Egyptians in the Yom Kippur war. And for all participants on the blog, please don’t assume I am advocating the use of nuclear weapons in NOKO or draconian tactics in Iraq.

I have had some experience in the Mid East as an (ahem) civilian contractor working in Riyadh training the Saudi National Guard; and that was prior to that a serving US Army officer for 20 some-odd years. One of the things I did take away from exposure to the Saudis (not Arabs universally, but Saudis) was the there is much to be said about the honor/shame culture. Saudis (recognizing that the house of Saud is but one bedouin tribe) tended to see the use of harsh force as a thing to be respected and feared; conversely, the lack of willingness to use harsh force was deemed to be a sign of weakness. Assuming this observation is correct, it argues for considerably more indiscriminate force than we have thus far applied–but that is not something I am willingness to advocate at this point–yet. I contend that we are still, as a nation and as a matter of national policy, failing to understand fully the bedouin mind (as opposed to the wider Islamic mind).

Sep 22, 2004 - 10:13 pm 86. Kevin P:

Everyone:

The Kerry is mentally ill thread is far to complex. The reality is that he is just a power hungry poll who will say and do anything to be elected. When it suited him to be pro-war he was. Now the polls say anti-war so he is. Speak to a pro-Israeli group and the security fence is ok. Speak to an Arab group and it becomes bad.So what if there is not a single thread of evidence that Bush is planning to bring back the draft. Say it anyway.If he thought it would help him to wear a dress and say that he is a woman in his heart he would put it on. It is not insanity. It is simple lust for power.

Sep 22, 2004 - 10:15 pm 87. RogerA:

Mork–sorry I didnt see your response to my somewhat sarcastic post earlier. Here is my thought: I am concerned that you are looking at the situation in Iraq–a somewhat erstaz “nation” to start with comprised of kurds, shiites and sunnis, and assuming that what has happened there would be the same result through all other mid-east nations. Nor I am assuming that the end result of any military or para-military campaign would result in occupation. I felt that was an assumption you are making.

Yes–the current result in Iraq is not good and many innocent lives are being lost; but the overall situation is not lost. The insurgents have no hope of a military victory, and even if the sunni insurgents “win” in some way, the Kurds and Shiites will not let that amount to anything.

I guess my bottom line is that I would not draw the same conclusions you would from the Iraq insurgency.

Sep 22, 2004 - 10:23 pm 88. RogerA:

Mork–one other thought: I do agree with you that ultimately we will have little control over the choices about governance other nations will make. That is one “cost” of the approach we have taken in our foreign policyi with respect to the middle east.

Sep 22, 2004 - 10:32 pm 89. richard mcenroe:

RogerA, mwalls ó in the Six-Day War several Jordanian units gave the Israelis all the fight they wanted, and actually stopped them in their area prior to the cease-fire.

Sep 22, 2004 - 10:44 pm 90. Mork:

Nor I am assuming that the end result of any military or para-military campaign would result in occupation. I felt that was an assumption you are making.

I’m not sure how you can avoid that assumption. As I said above, any regime that is perceived to have been installed by America will inevitably provoke widespread violent resistance. There is going to be an army out there that is used to obeying the mullahs. Unless the whole army is happy to just switch allegiences to a U.S. backed government, we can assume that large chunks of it will continue to be at the mullahs’ disposal. In that situation, who is going to prevent the mullahs from taking over again?

Here is my thought: I am concerned that you are looking at the situation in Iraq–a somewhat erstaz “nation” to start with comprised of kurds, shiites and sunnis, and assuming that what has happened there would be the same result through all other mid-east nations.

That’s true, but the immediate issue is not that there is internicine warfare that we can’t control, but that two of these three groups actively and violently resist the American presence. Why would Iranians (who are, after all Shias) be any different?

Yes–the current result in Iraq is not good and many innocent lives are being lost; but the overall situation is not lost. The insurgents have no hope of a military victory, and even if the sunni insurgents “win” in some way, the Kurds and Shiites will not let that amount to anything.

The question is not whether all is lost - obviously, we can hang in there indefinitely if we are prepared to wear the constant losses and expense.

The real question is whether anything is going to change that justifies our staying. For 18 months, the events have developed in a steady arc of increased insurgency and reduced American control.

It is obvious that, in order for that arc to be reversed, something has to change.

What is it going to be?

(BTW - it’s not a question of whether Sunnis, Kurds or Shias “win”. The question for us is whether we can achieve a result that justifies our costs. To my mind, the only result that would justify our costs to date is a stable, democratic Iraq. I think it is now clear that that result is now impossible to achieve without (at least without incurring unacceptably massive additional costs).

In that sense, we have already lost, and the only question remaining is how much we have to pay.)

Sep 22, 2004 - 10:45 pm 91. Syl:

Mork

Such an analyst you are:

“but the immediate issue is not that there is internicine warfare that we can’t control, but that two of these three groups actively and violently resist the American presence.”

It should read some members of two of these three groups. At least be responsible in your supposed statements of fact. You also conveniently leave out the fact that Iraqi’s are still signing up to fight with us even after the multitude of attacks against them.

Sure, there would be resistance to us wherever we might go. And that means..what? That we should give up our ambitions of winning this thing? My gawd, some people oppose us and terrorists are pouring into Iraq! Oh me oh my. We can’t go anywhere without resistance! It’s futile!

Doesn’t it mean anything to people like you that we are now seeing the face of the enemy, and learning how he operates? And how important it is to him that his land of jihad be defended? Did you even read Zarqawi’s memo? Would you rather be surprised at some future time when an administration with no experience fighting these guys is left with no choice but to take them on wherever that may be? What a shock that would be.

The bottom line is I’d rather the fighting occurs in Iraq than here. Anywhere in the Middle East, in fact, rather than here. Keep them busy. Very very busy.

Sep 22, 2004 - 11:54 pm 92. holdfast:

Mork:

The US military could do anything to Syria that needs doing with a heavy division+ launching out of Iraq, given adequate air support. This would be a huge armoured raid - think Thunder Run writ large, with maybe a diversionary landing by the Marines in the Med. It wouldn’t be an occupation - rather an old-style punitive raid designed to bring the Syrian forces out into the open where they can be dealt with appropriately. If the place becomes even more of a cesspool afterwards, who cares? It’s not like Iraq - not heavily industrilized, not a historical center of Middle East/Arab power, no oil for Dick Cheney, not central and now essentially surrounded by Iraq, Turkey and Israel.

Iran - the worst thing that America could do there would be to put large numbers of boots on the ground. Spec Ops, money and propoganda are the best weapons in that theatre - accompanied by precision air strikes if absolutely necessary. The most important thing in the near term is to bribe, bully, whatever Russia into cutting off their nuke supplies. Sadly, Beslan may help with this.

Sep 23, 2004 - 12:03 am 93. Mork:

The US military could do anything to Syria that needs doing with a heavy division+ launching out of Iraq, given adequate air support. This would be a huge armoured raid - think Thunder Run writ large, with maybe a diversionary landing by the Marines in the Med. It wouldn’t be an occupation - rather an old-style punitive raid designed to bring the Syrian forces out into the open where they can be dealt with appropriately.

Come on, you think the Syrians have been sleeping for the last two years? Don’t you think that they’ve worked out that the way to beat an American incursion is to disperse and wait for the occupation and then fight a guerilla campaign?

Sep 23, 2004 - 12:11 am 94. Tongue Boy:

And the hits just keep on comin’ for the Chimpler:

Medium who channels stillborn children says Chimpy McHalliburton laughs at American deaths in Iraq” (registration required. see last paragraph of story.)

28 Days was certainly prophetic, wasn’t it? Moore’s Disease is spreading like wildfire.

Sep 23, 2004 - 6:42 am 95. mwalls:

Mork:

Using a big armored raid, there is no occupation, no guerilla campaign. What the mission profile looks like is a tradition mafia hit job. As far as how to defense it, you’re assuming a much higher skill level than the Syrians have ever shown. And if we want to really screw them over, we support & arm the Syrian Kurds.

Sep 23, 2004 - 7:00 am 96. TmjUtah:

Mork -

Please check out Instapundit’s 0804 post.

You also said

“Come on, you think the Syrians have been sleeping for the last two years? Don’t you think that they’ve worked out that the way to beat an American incursion is to disperse and wait for the occupation and then fight a guerilla campaign?”

I doubt that the Syrians have been sleeping much myself. They’ve worked out that if the Americans stay in Iraq, the Baathist regime in Damascus will end sooner rather than later. That’s why hundreds of Syrian and Palestinians have been shuttled across the border to foment inusrgency in Iraq.

Those guys aren’t coming home. They have died in Fallujah and Najaf and Sadr City by the hundreds, and by all accounts the pace has picked up markedly in the last three days.

Yet the Bush administration remains almost silent on the issue of foreign fighters. Could it be that they see it as a situation where they can deal with them now in Iraq vice having to chase them across the mideast?

Mork, you have characterized Afghanistan and Iraq as abject disasters from the first of yours I ever read. I believe we are on a timeline that hasn’t played out yet. We must agree to disagree, I guess.

2005 is going to be a good year for freedom. It’s going to be noisy and truncated for Syria, and possibly even Iran. New Year’s Day for them comes on November 3d this year. And they know it.

Sep 23, 2004 - 7:17 am 97. richard mcenroe:

Well, at least Kerry is consistent about one thing…

Sep 23, 2004 - 7:38 am 98. Bostonian:

Mork: “As Iraq proves, our involvment in any regime change in the middle east guarantees that the new regime will face a violent and widespread internal opposition.”

The opposition is neither widespread nor popular. It is isolated to a small set of areas, as any close look at the facts will confirm. As for popularity, consider that Iraqis have been the target of the majority of the violence. Committing violence against your own fellows tends to make you less, not more, popular–or is that truly a difficult concept?

The people of Iraq understand what is happening. And THEY KNOW WHO THE BAD GUYS ARE!

There are millions of talented, hard-working, peace-loving people in Iraq who are motivated to defeating the terrorists, getting their government going, and getting on with life. These are normal, sane desires that very nearly everyone shares.

You give the Iraqis absolutely no credit.

Sep 23, 2004 - 10:16 am 99. Mork:

Mork, you have characterized Afghanistan and Iraq as abject disasters from the first of yours I ever read.

Really? I don’t think I’ve ever said that Afghanistan was a disaster. In fact, I basically regard it as an overwhelming success (apart from the screw-up in Tora Bora) the benefit of which is now being pissed away through inattention.

Likewise, you can’t have been reading me too long on Iraq, because I supported the war before it started, and for some time after. But when the facts change, so do my opinions.

Sep 23, 2004 - 4:36 pm 100. Mike G in San Diego:

TmjUtah wrote:

I liked “Hunting for Hippies”, from the same collection as “Phred”.

I don’t remember the characters, but it was a father and son out in a wheat field…dad in plaid jacket carrying a double barrel shotgun. I paraphrase:

“O.K. boy, call ‘em in, just like I showed you.”

Son cradles hands around mouth - “Socialized Healthcare! Food Stamps Here, Today Only! We have cheese!”

I believe that was from an early “Bloom County” strip. I think it’s in the first Bloom County collection, “Loose Tails.” Milo and the Major are out huntin’ liberals …

“Winged one!” “Socialized medicine! Socialized medicine!”

Sep 23, 2004 - 5:38 pm

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