61 Comments

1. RogerA:

Assuming this is actually from bin laden, and I will reserve judgment on that score–I think it does reflect the fact that OBL has suffered some major setbacks and is playing a political card that will produce a cease fire–he is in trouble tactically, has lost numerous associates through the war on terror, and is, in effect, asking for a hiatus in hostilities. The only way I can interpret the tape is that is a plea for a cease fire–all the more reason to continue to “bring it on.” BTW–this tape could very well serve to undercut Zarkawi’s position in Iraq–but that is a separate analysis.

Oct 29, 2004 - 7:53 pm 2. Seismic:

I don’t know whether it was what bin Laden intended but the release of his videotape will come across to Americans like the return of the bogeyman. It will only serve to remind voters about the war on terror all over again.

The sound you hear is the sound of rushing out of the Kerry campaign. All OBL has done is to add an exclamation point to the Bush campaign.

Oct 29, 2004 - 7:58 pm 3. Barrett:

Roger,

As I wrote in an earlier post today, I agree with the assessment that OBL and company would like a Kerry administration so that they would have the opportunity to re-group and re-arm. What you have written here is a more articulate version of my thoughts.

My concern is that an attack could occur on our soil, which would have the potential influence our election. (A number of well reasoned comments earlier have argued that the probability goes down as we get closer to election day – I hope this is right and that the terrorists think in such terms).

The terrorists know this. A Kerry election would give the terrorists the “hunda” you cite. Kerry would be in naive pursuit of meeting his Global Test without realizing that he was once again giving aid and comfort to the enemy.

The terrorists also know that George Bush will continue to prosecute the war against them in a second term. A good general crushes the enemy when possible. If OBL and company are truly seeking a “hunda”, then Bush has been more successful than anyone imagined.

We must not relent now. Make sure you and your family, friends and colleagues vote for Bush on Tuesday. Only a strong turnout by Republicans, enlightened Democrats (like Terrye) and independents who support Bush can stop what would be a great historical mistake.

Oct 29, 2004 - 8:05 pm 4. Michael B:

This WH press release quoting McClellan seems to be tentatively (they’re still reviewing it) indicating it’s authentic.

If so, it does in fact sound like a chastized OBL, a different character entirely compared to earlier tapes, as BC and RogerA above is indicating. And apparently one who is oddly misreading the American electorate. (Did Michael Moore write that script for him? Very wierd.) And if it is him he is also a terrible poker player since his veneer of bluster and strength is thin as a reed. (Which veneer is yet another thing he has in common with M. Moore – “M” for mendacious of course.)

I do wish that when the intelligence community vouched for the authenticity, they would let us in on more precisely why they are making that statement. (Voice pattern matching, lip movements in sync with what is being said on the tape, etc.) It would give us an idea as to how probable they regard the authenticity.

Oct 29, 2004 - 8:07 pm 5. Barry Dauphin:

Bin Laden wants a time out? Maybe he’s been talking to Mickey Kaus. I agree with RogerA about reserving judgment on the authenticity of this tape.

Rerserving judgment is a commodity in short supply. The WoT often, though not exclusively, means dealing with a great deal of ambiguity and tolerating the uncertainty and anxiety nonetheless. Kerry utterly failed that test this week. The information about the explosives has been sketchy and contradictory at times. But Kerry can’t wait, since he believes winning the election is more important than finding out what’s the story. He once again showed himself to be the blustering cpatain that Roger alluded to not so long ago. He showed us again what he would be like as Commander in Chief. It ain’t a pretty picture.

Oct 29, 2004 - 8:08 pm 6. alcibiades:

From Wretchard: He is basically saying if you leave us alone we will leave you alone. Though it is couched in his customary orbicular phraseology he is basically asking for time out.

A time out in Islamic parlance, as many of us know by now, is a hudna, which is not a peace settlement but more of a cease fire while they lick their wounds and re-arm for the fight to come. BC continues:

So this is fascinating. OBL is making the same argument as Mickey Kaus. We need a time out. Vote for Kerry.

Oct 29, 2004 - 8:11 pm 7. Sally-O:

I wonder if the stylistic differences between this tape and others aren’t attributable to (a) the translation and (b) the fact that this tape is explicity directed to an American audience (as opposed to earlier ones that were intended to rally OBL’s troops)?

It seems now that we only have an incomplete transcript of certain passages based on an Arab newscast(and other parts have been reported in summary).

Before we know for sure what OBL is saying, it would be good to see the work of an impartial Arabic translator.

Sombody not employed by CBS, of course, who might accidently overlook any quote along the lines of “I am the mighty Osama, slayer of Americans! Bow down, lick my boots and vote for John Kerry!”

Oct 29, 2004 - 8:12 pm 8. Barrett:

alcibiades,

Why do we need a time out?

Oct 29, 2004 - 8:15 pm 9. John©:

I’m far less confident [vide: Dennis] of the public’s attention span, intelligence, logic or ability to interpet correctly the deadly signals coming from the Islamic world. This interpretation seems obvious, after all, Kerry’s campaign is running nearly neck and neck with Bush–while consistently placing the president on the defensive. Who would have ever thought Bush would have to defend the war on terror to any citizen of the US? So, victory is not as self-evident as you (or I) would hope. Of course, it doesn’t help that the entire MSM is carrying Kerry’s empty helmet and spinning events like the OBL tape to jfk’s advantage–without him having to lift a botoxed eyebrow.

There’s a significant and very odd, perhaps contradictory, but not ambiguous conjunct of events in the last 48 hours. Yet no observer has bothered to examine how the precipitous ‘Adam Pearlman’ tape was certainly the mishap that forced the immediate apparation and declaration of ‘Osama.’ Pearlman’s jihadi outburst–immature, extravagent and impetuous–is a clear sign that freelancers have the temerity to usurp the controlling authority of Al Qa’eda. Pearlman obviously sees himself in the vanguard of a younger group of impassioned madrassas graduates who are convinced that Osama is dead or incapacitated. There is no center and no base:

Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;

Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,

The blood-dimmed tide is loosed

Has AP been reading Yeats? Normally, it would be folly for Pearlman to dare issue a taped threat without permission. But if he believes there’s no one left in authority, what’s to stop a hotheaded revolutionary? I find it interesting additionally that he’s a quintessential Californian: a home-schooled self-starter, a histrionic, headlong dude unafraid to buck conventions, eager for recognition and celebrity. (He’s probably in a ditch along the Indus by now.) In any event, the controllers of ‘Osama’–or his legacy–found Pearlman’s outburst so insolent or threatening that within 24 hours OBL miraculously reappeared to reassert his authority. Some might assume with good reason, especially in the Islamic world, that the OBL tape was less about our election or Bush than a hasty rebuke to the young insurgent jihadis.

By the way, I don’t believe AP is in Waziristan at all, he’s far more likely in a city in Pakistan, probably a suburb of Karachi where a single madrassas is larger than UCLA. These younger, frustrated jihadis have given up on their moribund leadership and are eager to put their own stamp on international Islamic terrorism. Al Qa’eda are mostly out of commission, some even coopted, so the young (nearly all still without criminal records) can freely congregate around the large Pakistani madrassas and mosques and talk jihad without fear of detention. Whether they’re just Gucci guerillas or will evolve into real terrorists depends on how much financing this rhetoric will attract.

I’ve spent a lot of time over the past couple decades with these young kid/adults, luckily most are just tea house mujaheds. A few months ago in the border area I noticed that hostility against the Americans in Kabul had taken a back seat to plans for fighting in Iraq, Chechnya and Kashmir…and India, too. Interestingly, not any of these militants had any interest in fighting in Afghanistan. Not enough virgins to tempt them to certain death in that emerging democracy. The real problem is that Afghans themselves–ordinary villagers–are again using their ancient Lee Enfield rifles for target practice (deadly at a mile) on the Adam Pearlmans who dare cross the border. With Afghan and coalition troop also eagerly eagerly killing Pakistani and international interlopers it’s just not that safe anymore in Afghanistan for terrorists. That’s good news.

As for Bush? He’s shown no inclination to attack Kerry where he’s weakest: the Senate record against the military, against Israel…in fact, his total naivete on international issues–this should have been the cornerstone of a Bush landslide. In a similar vein, a call yesterday from a prominent Kabuli Pashtu Qwami leader professed utter exasperation that Bush wasn’t selling his brilliant success and leadership in Afghanistan. The fact that over 90 percent of Afghans are supportive–even desperate–for Bush’s re-election is ignored by the ‘genius’ Rove. Big mistake. Turning Afghanistan over to the UN, a likely consequence of a Bush defeat, would be a disaster. Afghans dread a Kerry election; NGOs and the UN are praying for Kerry.

Oct 29, 2004 - 8:19 pm 10. TmjUtah:

I commented briefly at Wretchard’s. My further opinion is included in my own daily post, linked to my name.

Same war. Different day. And a long, long way to go.

Oct 29, 2004 - 8:28 pm 11. flenser:

JohnA

What on earth the Bush campaign is thinking is something a lot of people are wondering. They sometimes seem to be in a world of their own, where they can respond to attacks on Bush as being a bloodthirsty liar who tricked us into a war, by pointing out that Kerry is a liberal. And a flip-flopper.

This is not 1984, and they need to stop acting as if they are running against Mondale. Truly bizarre. The high point of the whole election cycle for the GOP was Zell Millers speech. If only they could play that on a loop.

Oct 29, 2004 - 8:34 pm 12. TmjUtah:

Preview is my friend…and I’m using the kid’s computer. Sorry about that. My link is active now.

Oct 29, 2004 - 8:38 pm 13. RogerA:

JohnA–thanks for a brilliant analysis–it never occured to me to link the two AQ tapes–esp the earlier as an attack on older AQ tactics–does this mean that AQ is splintering? Would appreciate your further views on the issue. Thanks in advance.

Oct 29, 2004 - 8:45 pm 14. alcibiades:

Barrett:

Sorry, for not being clearer. I thought it was ironic that Mickey Kaus and OBL were making essentially the same argument about a time-out.

I don’t now, nor have I ever thought we need a time-out. It’s an absurd argument. That’s not how you win a war; and above all things, that’s not how you win a war in that quarter of the world.

When it comes down to it, Kerry would make the kind of leader OBL suspected we had when he bombed the Towers. A President who would do the minimum to fight back and whose will would eventually wander off and weaken. A President not stalwart enough to stand up against global opinion.

Oct 29, 2004 - 8:46 pm 15. Rick Ballard:

JohnA,

I don’t think I can buy the OBL facsimile tape as a response to Ass am’s declaration. The timing is a bit too tight. I can accept an OBL imposter but producing the tape (especially with the Moore script) would seem to require a bit more time than 36 hours. And if OBL is cave dust, who is rebuking young Assam? Rounding up a lookalike and getting a tape out in 36 hours would speak of an organization with more on the ball than either tape evidences.

Oct 29, 2004 - 8:57 pm 16. Sally-O:

I agree, Flenser.

The Bush campaign seized so eagerly on Kerry’s flip-flopping that they neglected to emphasize that flip-flopping hasn’t spared Kerry from being wrong for about defense matters for his entire life and particularly wrong about Iraq.

It’s definitely frustrating. In some sense, we’ve missed the debate we should have had.

I find Bush to be a leader with all the right instincts but too few rhetorical gifts–a Churchill as Churchill would have appeared if he were hopelessly tongue-tied.

This was exemplified perfectly in the first debate, in which Bush appeared so mystified and flummoxed by patent ridiculousness which defied all common sense that he could hardly believe his ears and marshall the words to respond.

Oct 29, 2004 - 8:58 pm 17. Syl:

John(c)

“…not any of these militants had any interest in fighting in Afghanistan. Not enough virgins to tempt them to certain death in that emerging democracy.”

Precisely the reason Bush must succeed in Iraq!

Granted, Iraq was not a land of jihad before, but when Bush succeeds, Iraq will be lost to jihad for a long long time.

Damn, though, this will take an entire century. When one land is lost, they find another. Will we keep fighting until every nation has its own Afghan villager with an Enfield rifle?

That’s the plan.

I think it’s important that WE choose the battlegrounds, not them. There will be hudna in some administrations this century I’m sure. But we’re too close to the beginning to let up now.

Oct 29, 2004 - 9:28 pm 18. Dishman:

BuzzMachine has some interesting comments regarding Kerry and the Bill Maher show.

http://www.buzzmachine.com/archives/2004_10_29.html#008310

It’s work taking a look.

Oct 29, 2004 - 9:34 pm 19. Donna:

There’s something fishy about both recent videos. And of course the timing reeks. I cannot believe that being in hiding hasn’t seemed to age Osama one bit. If anything, he looks better.

Oct 29, 2004 - 9:44 pm 20. Aquatic Cadaver Dog:

I am so tired of being polite on the subject of muslims. The so-called peace-loving muslims should be ashamed of themselves for not standing up against their murderous fellows.

Muslims probably will take over Sweden in time by over-breeding and intimidation. Who in old Europe is not afraid of their volatility and capacity for violence?

When 9/11 happened, muslims in England roamed the streets banging on car hoods in riotous celebration, generally intimidating British citizens who had no way to protect themselves from these hoodlums. (They can’t own firearms over there.) I’ve never owned a gun in my life, but I think it is time to buy one.

I am not a bigoted yahoo, but I will say that the way the women (and men) dress–you could never be sure there wasn’t a bomb strapped there underneath all those folds of clothing.

Upon rereading this, I realize how paranoid I sound, but what has kept the Hamas-cide bomber from striking in America? Only the grace of God.

Oct 29, 2004 - 10:05 pm 21. Fresh Air:

Yackov–

Get your own blog if you want to put down intergallactic posts like that. My thumb is sore from scrolling.

Asshat.

Oct 29, 2004 - 10:15 pm 22. JohnM:

Here’s the best response, courtesy of Franklin D. Roosevelt, December 8, 1941:

“Always will we remember the character of the onslaught against us. No matter how long it may take us to overcome this premeditated invasion, the American people in their righteous might will win through to absolute victory. I believe I interpret the will of the Congress and of the people when I assert that we will not only defend ourselves to the uttermost but will make very certain that this form of treachery shall never endanger us again. Hostilities exist. There is no blinking at the fact that our people, our territory, and our interests are in grave danger. With confidence in our armed forces-with the unbounded determination of our people-we will gain the inevitable triumph-so help us God.”

Oct 29, 2004 - 10:28 pm 23. Stephen_M:

My compliments to the editor of the comments section of this blog.

Oct 29, 2004 - 10:32 pm 24. Katherine:

Osama pleading for time out demonstrates that he has become a weak horse. Suddenly, there is a role reversal: for the first time in years it is America that is perceived as a strong horse. That means that we were more successful in the destruction of the enemy than we ever thought. That means that we are well on our way to win this struggle. To give the desired time out to the Islamists now is to give up all our hard won advantage. All the lives lost, all the treasure already spent (can you say Gulf War I, the unfinished business).

Nothing could demonstrate the folly of the John Kerry appeasers then this message from the Terror Master himself. Of course, we can withdraw, buy few years of ìpeaceî and be back precisely where we started when Osamaís brigades reorganize and rearm. The next time it is going to be nothing short of a nuke, but, with luck, the Kerry administration will manage to kick this can down the road for the next Republican president to deal with. And to blame.

Oct 29, 2004 - 10:34 pm 25. Ed Poinsett:

OBL is still dead! Mullah Omar is still dead!

Why didn’t this video have the quality of the recent Al Zawahiri tape?

I believe the Zawahiri tape was authentic. Producing decent quality video today is not rocket science.

Why wouldn’t OBL demand the the most up to date looking presentation to make his point? Why isn’t the production as least as good as Assam the American?

All that is missing is Ashlee Simpson lip synching.

Oct 29, 2004 - 11:29 pm 26. John Moore ( Useful Fools ):

I think something is very fishy with this latest tape. The script is so different from Bin Laden’s normal style and sounds like it was written by someone in the states.

Also, I believe Bin Laden is left handed…

Not in the part of the video I saw. He makes his gestures with his right hand.

Ahem….

So the CIA has authenticated this… What does that mean? What technology?

As to the ability to put out that video quickly… I think it would be doable. Hard work, but doable. And since OBL, if that’s who it was, is most likely in a Pakistani City (it’s easier to hide in the middle of 10 million people than in a lightly populated area, and it is much more comfortable), as John@ said, once produced, the tape could be flown to Al Jazeera quickly. Or, it could be converted to a high quality digital image and transmitted over the internet.

So what gives? Is this Bin Laden with a whole new approach? Why no religious language, no flowery tributes to Allah throughout, just on this tape?

Color me suspicious.

Oct 29, 2004 - 11:46 pm 27. WilliamA:

OT

I am so mad I can not think straight so please bear with me.

Michael Moore is feeding off the flesh of you dead, selling anti american propoganda that fuels the self righteous delusions of your country’s enemies (IN A TIME OF WAR NO LESS. What does it take for America to wake up to the fact that it itself is the number one source of anti americanism around the world. It is your self hating intellectual and artistic class that provides the intellectual and emotional tools that refine the very venom that attacks you. Too many people in America laugh at Michael Moorish self loathing humour but much of the world misses the joke, as apparently OBL did. F911 is to him both a confirmation of your stupidity and a reaffirmation of the weakness and unseriousness of your people. In short he believes you believe the film and thinks this is another weakness to exploit.

I may be preaching to the choir here but it is time to stand up and say enough to this. Forget being polite stand up and denouce this sort of crap. Don’t put you money into the pockets of people who drag your country and your people in the mud. Put you goddam footdown! Your country has many faults but that does not mean that hate speech directed at your own country is any more acceptable that bigotry toward any race, nation or religion.

I was raised in Canada and spent my whole life amoungst what must be the smuggest people on Earth, a place where anti americanism is all pervasive. I was like a fish unaware water, after 911 I felt I was drowning. I made an oath that I would never again let a bigoted anti american statement go unchallenged. It has cost me many cold stares and a couple of friends but it is right.

Your words have an effect far beyond your borders.

Now since I am still a Canadian I must add; if I have offended anyone I apologize.

Oct 30, 2004 - 12:25 am 28. GunnyBob:

Updated Translation of Osama’s Speech To America..

So anyway, I was having this weird ass bad dream. I died and met an angel who was awaiting me at what you Americans would call the pearly gates, ok. So he says to me, “Are you ready for your reward?” And of course I am, I mean, all this grief and for what if not the ultimate prize that Allah has assured all males. So, I say yes, and out from a cloud walks this tall man and he marches up to me and kicks me square in the gateway to all womankinds dreams. Now, I am still somewhat frail from being bombed, strafed, gased, and all that, so I fall down. Before I can even gather my wits about me, up walks another man. “Washington let you off easy!” He exclaimed, then punches me straight in the lips of all womankinds dreams. Hurting, bleeding, not understanding any of this, I have no time to respond before yet another man approaches. “My name’s Madison,” he shouts, “Patrick Henry was too good to you!”, the man exclaims just as his fingers dart forth and stab me in the soulfull eyes of all womankinds dreams. It continues I know not how long. Man after man, names ringing in my ears, names I had never heard before. Jefferson, Rudolph, Monroe, and many, many others. I lie there, bleeding, whimpering, crouching before this onslought until I hear the angels voice again. “Okay Osama; there’s your 72 Virginians.”

Oct 30, 2004 - 1:12 am 29. CPT. Charles:

Well, well…my first post here.

To WilliamA, don’t apologize. MM is preening leftist version of PT Barnum; he’ll get his soon enough.

To all you swamp gas fans who think the UBL on that screen is a Bush/ILM masterpiece, find the nearest source of cold water and shove your faces in it. Perhaps that will wake you up.

Some of you are asking why now? Why the change in tone? Why? Because he’s getting his ass handed to him. America has 102 nations in it’s alliance against his dream. Everywhere miliant Islam stands up and confronts America, their dead get carried off by the truck load (or what’s left of them). Don’t be fooled by the TV screen: you see the buried bomb going off, you hear of ambushes and mortar attacks. Nice little video bits to unsettle your digestion but that’s about it.

Half this war is being waged in your head: doubt, fear, uncertainty. All those little daggers pricking at you day by day. And just to keep things interesting, let’s throw in a Beslan…you don’t see those pictures, do you? You don’t see the heaps of murdered children, their mothers, their fathers…oh no, those would clarify the matter far too well. And we can’t have that, can we…

Yes, he does look rather well, doesn’t he? I hear they have fairly decent hospitals in Iran, don’t they? Oh, yeah…that’s right, they’re building a nice atom bomb, just like the Norks. Real soon, or so I’ve heard. That would quite a shield to hide behind, wouldn’t it? All they need is time…

And a UN that’s willing to avert their eyes long enough…The IAEA has been doing such a spendid job lately, haven’t they? Why they even have enough spare time to send memos to the NYT. Gosh, they’re such helpful chaps… And let’s not forget important European allies, willing to sell anything for a sure supply of oil (or a generous wad of ‘walking around money’…mistresses and ‘loving children’ aren’t cheap you know…)

Oh yeah, I almost forgot, they also need an American President who’s thoughtful, deliberative and flexible. Someone understands the importance of consulting allies and thinks that the opinion of the UN is paramont. Oh yes, a sensitive leader who knows that global acclaim is the surest sign that America is on the right track. Oh, almost forgot, he has to be smarter too…and I’m sure a glib tongue would handy as well.

All UBL needs is a bit a peace, a bit of time and everything will be all right. That nasty Dubya just wants to make trouble, blow innocent people up and keep kites and pretty balloons out of the hands of smiling children. He’s clearly a threat to world peace, that nasty, arrogant…cowboy. He even had the nerve to impose freedom from tyranny and self-rule on 50 million people. Gosh, what a bully.

Well this Red State, former democrat, knows exactly what to do to displease UBL. Vote Bush.

PS-bad people need killin’ Let’s get to work on that Nov. 3rd.

Oct 30, 2004 - 2:00 am 30. David Thomson:

I suspect that Osama bin Ladin is dead and we are hearing someone elseís voice. The important thing, though, is that this person probably represents a group of people equally committed to destroying America. We should also not be surprised by the noticeable far left-wing rhetoric. But doesn’t radical leftism contradict the tenets of militant Islamism? Isnít there a contradiction, a rational inconsistent bordering on intellectual insanity? Yes, and that is why I always encourage people to read Eric Hofferís seminal work, The True Believer. He argues that the fanatic seeks an authoritarian ideology of one kind or another. One minute they are a Nazi, the next moment a Communist, or even a religious fanatic. Our enemies hate us and will gravitate to any ideology which provides fuel for this burning rage. They are nihilists—and therefore we are inevitably involved in a fight to the death. These rabid homo sapiens are now incapable of ever again living an ordinary and peaceful life. This is why I laugh at Mickey Kaus and the other so-called “time out” advocates. Our uncompromising foes are existentially committed to nihilism. Only death and destruction brings them any temporary satisfaction. A junkie must constantly feed their addiction. In this case, the addict reaches a near orgasmic high only by killing others. Tomorrow these monsters must find new victims. It never stops.

Oct 30, 2004 - 2:36 am 31. Charlie (Colorado):

alcibiades,

Why do we need a time out?

We really need to work on a markup convention for sarcasm.

Oct 30, 2004 - 3:57 am 32. Terrye:

Needless to say the Democrats will say “See, he is still out there”.

Maybe yes, maybe no…but he sounds like a Islamic version of a Democratic strategist. I have had Dems tell me that I was unfair for going after Michael Moore and F911 and yet it seems that we have another positive review here, minus the standing ovation.

Bush is not meaner about Kerry’s military record because he does not want to look like he is not fighting fair, he leaves that to his opponent. And what is left? Calling Tommy Francks a fuck up? The Dems have alreadly let their surrogates compare Bush to Hitler, claim he stole the election, lied about weapons, let weapons fall into the hands of the enemy and here comes Osama sounding a more like Terry McAuliffe than the old we will kill you all Osama of old.

Be like Sweden, kiss our collective ass and all will be well. Get rid of the bad Texan that used his bro to steal the election and we leave you alone. Banish the man who mislead you, follow a prudent path and your security is in your hands. up to you.

Bush has not been meaner because he believes in the old adage …give them enough rope and they will hang themselves..

I read what OBL said about Somolia and how we left in humiliation and defeat taking our dead with us and I knew I would never vote to put those assholes back in office again. I just needed the right Republican to come along and give me an alternative…. and that is Bush.

Oct 30, 2004 - 4:58 am 33. Connecticut Yankee:

Beldar has an interesting take on the OBL tape– namely, that it’s preemptive manipulation of JFK:

I think it’s a very clear attempt to begin negotiations with a Kerry administration for a “cease-fire” in the Global War on Terror.

Of course, I don’t believe for an instant that bin Laden’s sincere. Only a blithering fool would trust him. But only a blithering fool would:

have listened to the North Vietnamese/Viet Cong’s “seven-point peace plan” during the Vietnam War, and have taken it at face value and endorsed it as the course that America should follow.

have believed Daniel Ortega’s promises to reform his communist government in Nicaragua if only America would stop funding the contras.

have believed that a nuclear freeze and sharp cutbacks in America’s military and intellligence programs would placate the Soviet Union and win the Cold War.

have believed that diplomacy would have gotten Saddam out of Kuwait in the last decade, or out of power in his own country in this one.

believe that North Korea will respond more favorably to unilateral negotiations with the United States than to combined pressure in six-way talks that also involve South Korea, Japan, China, and Russia.

One such blithering fool may be elected President of the United States on Tuesday. And Osama bin Laden–like Madame Binh, Daniel Ortega, a succession of Soviet dictators, Saddam, and Kim Jong Il before him–has already begun his sly attempts to manipulate that candidate. So it is that this blithering fool’s personal history of enthusiastically swallowing just this kind of bait, hook, line, and sinker–and then trying to base America’s course upon it–scares me far more than anything Osama bin Laden could ever say.

http://beldar.blogs.com/beldarblog/2004/10/osama_bin_laden.html

Oct 30, 2004 - 5:24 am 34. jerry:

Williamt:

What part of Canada are you from. If it’s from Alberta or Manitoba or even parts of Saskatchuwan there is nothing for to apologize for. There are still “real Canadaian”, i.e., people like my mother’s generation out and about.

Cheers.

Oct 30, 2004 - 6:12 am 35. Terrye:

Conneticut Yankee:

Sounds to me like Beldar knows what he is talking about.

Oct 30, 2004 - 6:21 am 36. PeterUK:

Roger,

A linguistic analysis of this compared to his other messages is in order.

1 He uses many of of the Democratic talking points,as mentioned above.

2 There are to many western colloquialisms,”fed up ” for example.

3 The flowery arabic prose has disappeared.

4 Nobody changes their prose style so radically.

Oct 30, 2004 - 6:30 am 37. DennisThePeasant:

At the risk of disagreeing with people who have double the frontal lobe capacity of yours truly, I think Belmont Club has this all wrong. Here’s why:

Osama bin Laden has always be a very sophisticated propagandist. His writings and videos have been, prior to this tape, always been primarily directed towards Middle Eastern Muslims rather than the United States and the Western World. This tape is utterly unique in that it is obviously directed, first and foremost, to the people of the United States. I would suggest that the absence of specific references to the restoration of the caliphate is a function of OBL understanding that such references are relatively meaningless to his audience. Plus, it is difficult to try to convince people that you are willing to end your attacks on America in exchange for the removal of G.W. Bush from the presidency if you’re prattling on about a Muslim Empire.

I also believe that OBL’s change of tone is a direct function of his clear intent here…to influence the presidential election. There can be little doubt that OBL’s speech has been written by several members of his cadres who have had a Western education as well as experience living in Western nations. As I stated in another post on a different thread, it seems clear that OBL’s speech writing team of “USA experts” have a very imperfect grasp of the nature of U.S. politics and the general character of the American people. But, however crude and stumbling, it must still be kept in mind that the clear intent on the part of OBL here is to clearly suggest that the solution to the War On Terror is to end the president of George W. Bush. That is, in fact, exactly what OBL devotes the majority of this speech to. That OBL would devote his whole speech to this task, as opposed to exhorting his followers and the Muslims of the Middle East indicates to the degree of importance he attaches to ending Bush’s presidency.

I would not attach any specific importance to the fact that the speech contains some of the standard Bush-bashing memes. All that means is that OBL’s speech writing team had access to The Nation, Farenhiet 911, and Daily KOS. Half that speech could have been written by Eric Alterman and published by The Nation without raising an eyebrow. All this indicates is that OBL attached a lot of importance to making sure the American people understood what he was trying to say, and enlisted some of his followers to gather material from Western sources to achieve that end.

Ultimately, it would appear that OBL’s message is to suggest, in a manner that he assumes to be relatively subtle, that the American people can bring the War On Terror to a quick close if only the end the aggression of George W. Bush. So for my money Beldar comes closest to hitting the nail on the head in this matter. I find it very difficult, knowing OBL’s past as we do, to think that the reverses he has suffered have lead to a fundamental shift in his world outlook. This is a man who gave up a very soft life as a wealthy elite to spend a decade fighting in Afghanistan in conditions of considerable hardship. He’s faced hard times before, and hard times do not, I would suggest, lead the fanatic to become less fanatical…quite the opposite.

Finally, I would not read to much into the timing of the OBL and Adam tapes. It is clear that OBL prepared this tape for release just prior to the election, and from the transcript it is equally clear that this tape could have been made more than 6 months ago. I think what is most likely is the release of tapes by two different organizations without specific knowledge of the other’s intent. It would be logical that any organization attempting to influence the election would release such a tape in the last week running up to the election.

Oct 30, 2004 - 7:26 am 38. Michael B:

DtP, an insightful and substantial analysis imo. Too, some skepticism about OBL specifically is warranted, but it can turn into being too smart by a half. For example the Michael Moore/Eric Alterman styled morphing is weird in a sense, but not at all inexplicable. (In one sense – see WilliamA’s post above, it isn’t even all that surprising.) Also, the intelligence community has not retracted their initial nod to this being authentic. I still wish they’d fill us in a bit more on the specifics of their analyses, but the more time that passes without a retraction the more likely they’ve firmed up their assessment on the authenticity.

Oct 30, 2004 - 8:03 am 39. Michael B:

Btw, here is frontline’s bio of OBL if any are interested.

Oct 30, 2004 - 8:06 am 40. ricpic:

flenser,

“The high point of the election for the GOP was Zell Miller’s speech.”

Agreed. And of course, the obvious point here is that Miller is a Democrat.

Only Democrats breath fire and brimstone in an election campaign. To a great extent the Republican party continues, to this day, to be the party of WASP restraint. Culturally, whatever is felt internally, it is bad form to “let it all hang out.” This is maddening, especially to those of us who have come from ethnic America. But given that more of the country than one might think remains loyal to the WASP ethos, there is a hidden strain of sympathy for Republican restraint out there in “the heartland” which will probably carry the day for them.

Still, it is maddening.

Oct 30, 2004 - 8:09 am 41. Capt Trevett at the Commons:

How much do you want to bet UPL gave Fahrenheit 911 five stars?

Here’s a compilation of hudna material:

http://www.paulieworld.com/blog/archives/001423.html#more

Oct 30, 2004 - 8:15 am 42. Capt Trevett at the Commons:

How much do you want to bet UBL gave Fahrenheit 911 five stars?

Here’s a compilation of hudna material:

http://www.paulieworld.com/blog/archives/001423.html#more

Oct 30, 2004 - 8:16 am 43. Michael B:

In the “potential good news” column, this today from Daniel Pipes. Excerpt:

“In a stunning, unprecedented, and very hopeful sign, reports the Saudi newspaper Arab News, over 2,500 Muslim intellectuals from 23 countries sent a petition to United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan, and the chairman and members of the Security Council. The organizers hope to have tens of thousands of signatories shortly. Most of the signatories are from Saudi Arabia, the Persian Gulf states, Iraq, Jordan and the Palestinian Authority.

“In the petition, they call for an international treaty banning the use of religion for incitement to violence.”

Oct 30, 2004 - 8:19 am 44. lindenen:

Unfortunately, I’m not sure that we could even sign such a treaty. First Amendment and all.

Oct 30, 2004 - 9:05 am 45. Jamie Irons:

As much as I respect the brilliance of John’s (he who has spent much time in Afghanistan) analysis, I lean somewhat toward Dennis’s interpretation above.

And if that interpretation is correct, it suggests that the intuition many of us have had over the past few years is correct: it is not that the American left holds an opposing political viewpoint within a range of viewpoints which would still support the survival of our country; rather, the left is on the other side of the war. We witness our arch enemy is using exactly the same language as Mr. Moore and his fans.

It is quite difficult to get one’s mind around how truly bizarre this development is.

Jamie Irons

Oct 30, 2004 - 9:09 am 46. Jamie Irons:

Sorry. Please remove is from my penultimate sentence above.

PIMF

Jamie Irons

Oct 30, 2004 - 9:11 am 47. Roger:

I’m not sure why John’s and DtP’s comments are mutually-exclusive. Surely either Bin Laden himself or people making a “Bin Laden Style Video” are capable of aping the rhetoric of Michael Moore.

Oct 30, 2004 - 9:27 am 48. Terrye:

Jamie:

Back before WW2 we had the America firsters but once the shooting started they pretty much shut the hell up.

However, here in this country in this war the left has chosen to make this about Bush and not about our enemy. To them our only enemy is our stubbron refusal not to surrender up front. After all, we had it coming, didn’t we? Bush is an oil man, isn’t he?

BTW I looked up Holborooke and he is in no position to bitch about Tommy Franks not getting Osama in Tora Bora. It seems they can’t decide if Osama is a nuisance or if he is a master criminal that the bungling Bush failed to capture. Needless to say they neglect to mention all the times they failed to bring an end to OBL. That is different….

Oct 30, 2004 - 9:31 am 49. Buddy Larsen:

A reality-based reality ought to include a point that can resist that damned “But, what if that’s what they WANT us to think?”

I wish I could find that chunk of script from the movie (and maybe Thomas Berger’s book) “Little Big Man” when Custer has asked LBM (Dustin Hoffman) whether or not LBM thinks they ought to ride down into the valley of the Little Bighorn. Custer makes a long deconstruction through all sorts of motive loops and cross-permutations and triumphally arrives at the conclusion that LBM is lying. It doesn’t dawn on him that this conclusion calls for exactly the same action that LBM had just recommended…”don’t go down there”. So, not to be outsmarted by a muleskinner half-breed, he DOES go down there.

LBM had tried to prevent a massacre, by telling the truth. Custer got killed by ignoring face value in favor of trying to trick out facets of motives (I think he was a Democrat. Really).

I like that weatherman who predicts a 50/50 chance of rain. He’s never been wrong.

Oct 30, 2004 - 9:36 am 50. Michael B:

“Unfortunately, I’m not sure that we could even sign such a treaty. First Amendment and all.” lindenen

Yes, agreed, and unless it included ideological religions (vide, the 20th century’s twin totalitarian religions of fascism and international Marxism/Leninism), I wouldn’t favor it (more formally or in principle) in the first place.

Still, it’s seemingly indicative of a broadly held sentiment (2,500 signatories from 23 countries – including Iraq btw), hence it may represent cause for some optimism, however tentatively we feel about any optimism at this point in time.

Oct 30, 2004 - 9:40 am 51. Capt Trevett at the Commons:

RE: Terrye

I find it comical that any Clinton official is complaining about missing Osama ONCE, especially considering they were given UBL on a silver platter and said “no thanks”

Oct 30, 2004 - 9:56 am 52. klrfz1:

A President JFK summit with OBL would give us peace in our time.

/*sarcasm

What could be wrong with that?

end-sarcasm*/

Or, use & lt and & gt to enclose sarcasm.

&ltWhat could be wrong with that?&gt

If someone cut and pastes the sarcastic remark to a different post the sarcasm will disappear since it will then appear to the browser like unrecognized html.

I guess you can tell I just don’t care anymore. I’ve already voted. Oh when, when, when will this election be over so our President can go back to work?

Oct 30, 2004 - 10:04 am 53. ex-democrat:

call me churlish but..

couldn’t the 2500 “Muslim intellectuals from 23 countries” have called for an international treaty banning the use of Islam for incitement to violence?

it’s called keeping your own house in order

Oct 30, 2004 - 10:17 am 54. Hylas:

Donít be surprised by the Moore/MoveOn talking points in the latest message. Effective propaganda must exploit the worldview of its target.

OBLís November 2002 message ìto the American peopleî was a mixture of far-right Muslim grievances and third-world Leftist cant. This shows that the intended audience was international. He was trying to create international opposition to American foreign policy.

His April 2004 ìtruce with Europeî message was full of references to corporate conspiracies and the ìZionist lobbyî guaranteed to resonate with the European left. He was trying to create internal resistance to European foreign policy.

And of course a message aimed at the American electorate parrots the American left. We are dealing with skilled propagandists here.

Oct 30, 2004 - 1:06 pm 55. Hylas:

Sorry about those messed up links. Let’s try that again:

“to the American people”

“truce with Europe”

Someday I’ll remember to use preview.

Oct 30, 2004 - 2:47 pm 56. PeterUK:

Hylas,

“And of course a message aimed at the American electorate parrots the American left. We are dealing with skilled propagandists here.”

I’m not an American voter,but bin Laden’s speech reads as if he had co-opted a Democrat to write it,from the comments here and elsewhere it is obvious that those who are going to vote for Bush have seen through the talking points and, if anything, are completely put off by the content.

Since bin Laden has not been able to pull any “spectacular” off recently,whilst younger and more enthusiastic murderers are making headlines,I go with the hypothesis that this is his bid to make a comeback.Pity he got Terry Macauliff to write the sript.

He may be trying to influence the US elections but he is also using them to put himself back in the spotlight.More should be made of the symbiotic relationship between Kerry and bin Laden,remarkable how close their world view is.

Oct 30, 2004 - 3:48 pm 57. Macker:

Something else worth noticing about Osama…his hatred for us not only goes back to 1983 or thereabouts. It goes back to who was President then:

REAGAN.

Let’s win this one for the Gipper!

Oct 30, 2004 - 4:10 pm 58. Buddy Larsen:

PeterUK, ditto on that “symbiotic” bit…perfect word to describe it. Because a thing is unintentional makes it no less a thing.

Macker, just saw where Ohio is breaking for Bush as of today. Is Ohio All-American Gipper enough for you?

Oct 30, 2004 - 6:42 pm 59. thibaud:

Osama used to taunt us with slashing insults and ornate rhetoric; now he recycles Mikey Boy’s tomfoolery. He used to articulate an apocalyptic vision and grand geostrategy; now he sounds like Terry McAuliffe.

As Osama once said, “When the people see a strong horse and a weak horse, they will back the strong horse.” This nag’s gone in the teeth, ready for the glue factory.

Oct 30, 2004 - 9:02 pm 60. thibaud:

The truly incredible thing about the ObL piece is its banality. This is a man who wants to bring about the apocalypse, and he’s talking about “My Pet Goat”?!

Is ObL outsourcing his speechwriting to offshore hacks at the Democratic Underground chatboards?

Oct 30, 2004 - 9:10 pm 61. Hylas:

PeterUK,

That’s a fair summary. I wish that we could get the ABB voters to see it that way. But maybe there is hope. People can’t rely on rationalizations to protect their beliefs forever. When Walter Cronkite says the video is a hoax cooked up by Karl Rove, I have to think he’s desperately fighting off cognitive dissonance. I think that in the worst case 4 years of Kerry will cure a lot of delusions. I just hope we don’t have to pay that price. Weíll find out soon enough.

Oct 30, 2004 - 9:25 pm

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