Is California itself… for all its fruits and nuts reputation… a micrcosm of America? The RogerLSimon secret source within the political establishment seems to think so.
A day or so ago I reported his breakdown of the surprising growth (doubling) of the Bush vote in largely Jewish Beverly Hills. Some wondered if this might be ascribed to a similar growth of Iranian and Orthodox Jews in those communities. To some degree perhaps, but similar (though lower) increases occurred in other neighborhoods with significant Jewish populations: mega-trendy West Hollywood (up 6.5%), Calabasas (up 8%) and Agoura Hills (up 7%). The latter two are mixed suburban communities with virtually no Orthodox presence. (Those are percentages of the vote, by the way, not percentage gains computed on previous years)
My secret source sees California divided into three parts. The San Francisco Bay Area, Los Angeles and Red State California (everyone else) which went wildly for Bush. The Bay Area went equally, if not more, wildly for Kerry. Bush did even worse there than he did in 2000, which is like less than zero. My secret source calls the Bay Area an over-sized college town (he’s a witty guy). Los Angeles, however, is an area in transition, what the secret source calls “a serious city.” That’s why I love it.
UPDATE: The BoifromTroy, a WeHo guy, has more surprising stats from the City of Angels.
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15 Comments
1. Scott Ferguson:I haven’t been to Los Angeles in about 20 years, but I want to see it again. The city I saw in the movie “Collateral” looked like a real city, and an interesting one too.
Nov 9, 2004 - 3:24 pm 2. John Moore ( Useful Fools ):Roger?
Secret source?
Are we playing with 1970’s pharmaceuticals?
Nov 9, 2004 - 3:32 pm 3. Dale Gribble:Most all of the libs in California are first or second generation New Englanders.
Nov 9, 2004 - 3:35 pm 4. DerekCA:Also remember that there is a large population of Persians (Iranians), Vietnamese, Koreans, Japanese, Taiwanese, Chinese and Hispanics of every stripe, not to mention the Indians, Pakistanis, and Pacific Islanders. It’s an absolutely astounding melange of peoples and cultures coexisting in a truly groovy Californian way.
Me? I’m a third generation CA guy whose great grandfather stowed away on a Danish steamer at the turn of the century.
There’s nothing like it anywhere in the world, and, if you consider the great Land Bridge migrations during the most recent glacial period, THE DESTINATION for the greatest mass migration in the history of human kind.
Stay cool, cuz California is where it’s at. BTW: I’m a libertarian/Republican from south OC, IMHO the libertarian credo is what all enlightened political thought leads to…
Nov 9, 2004 - 4:00 pm 5. Samuel:In reality the most of the States are similar, look at Pennsylvania, only Philadelphia is Blue, the suburbs and Pittsburg are light Blue and the rest of the state is as red as the South. Michigan is much the same. Maryland and Virginia are similar to each other, only 3 jurisdictions in Maryland are blue, Montgomery County, Prince Georges County and Baltimore. In Virginia in is Northern Virginia (Arlington, Alexandria, and Fairfax) and parts of Richmond and Tidewater. Look at the county map of New Jersey, much the same. The truth is the metropolitan areas are blue, the rural areas red and the suburbs are a shades of purple. What has happened since 9/11 is that the Red areas have gotten more red, the blue in many cases more blue but the suburbs went from bluish red to reddish blue.
Now I am not saying that writing off the cities and overly elitist areas is the answer, but I do believe the battle is mainly to be waged in suburban areas and with minorities that share the same values with social conservatives. As a WOT Neo-con I somewhat don’t like to admit it, but values is the common ground to get to these people and not economic issues. That means I need to just accept the talk of Guns and Jesus, not my preference to be sure, but then again I am a realist as well. It is becoming increasingly obvious that the principles I want to see carry forward in the WOT and other policies most important are most naturally carried more universally and naturally by social conservatives these days. Now these minorities just have the habit of voting Democrat but the values of the Democrats is out of sync with them as well. If the Democrats ever start losing hold of certain minority groups then it is over for the Democrats. On the other hand if the Republicans don’t continue to make in roads with minorities it is over for them, the white population is a shrinking part of the political equation, mucho kudos to this President for understanding that. Without the increases among minorities he would have lost this election.
I believe the tide is now with the Republicans. As an ex-Clintonite I believe the irony of Clinton is the fact that while he did make the Democrats credible economically, he unfortunately set the Democrats back at least a generation on values. After 9/11 principles and values are critical and as a leader this is Bush’s strong suit by a mile. As this President said… “It is what it is.” Yes indeed, what happened last Tuesday happened, those who understand what happened can respond in proper kind. The Democrats better get moving because the President knows exactly what the game and score is, he also knows just how much time is left on the clock. I smell full court press if the Democrats aren’t cooperative and he has my full support if it comes to that. -JSF
Nov 9, 2004 - 4:07 pm 6. DerekCA:Samuel,
I feel the real difference between the two parties is the aspect of grievances. Are you a victim of AmeriKa or are you one of those who hope to succeed here? It applies to the GWOT as well. Are the poor terrorists victims of globalization and Americana writ large, or are they the reincarnation of fascism?
If the GOP can stay on the great American themes of “freedom, success, liberty” then it can always trump the “everything wrong at home and in the world is America’s fault” siren song of liberals who see every wrong righted by a bigger state
regards from CA…
Nov 9, 2004 - 4:17 pm 7. RattlerGator:What Samuel said!
Right on the money, my man, right on the money.
Nov 9, 2004 - 4:36 pm 8. Samuel:Derek CA
I lived in California in the early 1980’s when Reagan was winning California. The numbers today in California are simple, there are more minorities now than back then and also many conservative whites have left the state, so demographics have worked against the Republicans.
I do very much agree on the positive/negative aspect you touch upon. The Republicans just are more focused on being positve, bringing forth new ideas, and getting things done. The culture of “victimhood” has finally come home to roost for the Democrats, they are all victims now. They fail to realize that the political center hates losers, they wii go with the percieved winner.
Nov 9, 2004 - 4:41 pm 9. wxjames:If I just fell to earth and got involved with all this talk about red and blue states, I would look at a map and say, Why are some states so small and this large one has 55 e-votes. Why not cut the big one into 3 parts and merge the 2 little states into their larger neighbors ?
Of course, there’s no room for logic in politics.
Such a merge would probably give the republicans an additional 18 or so e-votes, no ?
Nov 9, 2004 - 4:58 pm 10. Kevin P:Roger:
California will still be a blue state for the forseeable future but the Republican Party is starting to,slowly, see the wisdom of running more moderate candidates for statewide office and the wild eyed liberals of the Bay area are going to insist on having one of their firebrands run for Senator, leaving the republican candidate a opening for victory. By the way I am a registered independent who left the Democratic party out of disgust with their self hating foreign policy. The increase of immigrants, many with more conservitive social values, also leaves an opening for the Republicans. It will take a decade or two but unless the Dems become less reactionary they will slowly lose their grip on the Golden State.When Feinstein retires you can expect a more radical replacement.
PS- The Bay Area makes Manhattan look like a bastion of conservitism in comparison. The SDS people dress better now but many of their original ideas still find purchase in that enclave of radical leftist politics. If President Bush visited Berkley there would be at least one council member who would propose arresting him and turning him over to the Hague for war crimes.
Nov 9, 2004 - 5:08 pm 11. wxjames:Samuel, I’m from outside Philly. I agree with you, but please explain Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Wasington, and Oregon. with no huge cities, and smallish populations scattered about the mountains, these states should be conservative both economically and morally, no ?
Nov 9, 2004 - 5:16 pm 12. ex-democrat:i like living here in San Francisco because there are at least 147,000 voting-age adults dumber than me: http://master.mx-targeting.com/mx/servlet/MXTarget?adcontext=https://www.typekey.com/t/typekey/login?%26need_email%3D1%26t%3DS6jT57ciFcajPM3fE1y7%26_return%3Dhttp://www.rogerlsimon.com/cgi-bin/mt-comments.cgi%3f__mode%3Dhandle_sign_in%26static%3D1%26entry_id%3D585&contextpeak=0&contextcount=0&countrycodein=US&lastAdTime=1099473064|1099166323|1099473136|0|1095402880|0|0|1099472956|0|&lastAdCode=3&cookie1=capdate%3D034%26capdatedy%3D1103%26lupgtry%3D1%26lupgid%3D164%26lupgdt%3D1091370611856%26lflshdt%3D1098027547%26lstkywd%3Ddailyrecyc%
Nov 9, 2004 - 5:21 pm 13. Terrye:It is amazing how the country seems to be divided along urban/rural lines, with the suburbs in between. If you look at the county maps it is a sea of red out there.
I am not rich, nor will I ever be but I don’t think the Dems will help me there. John Kerry’s wife will be rich and I won’t be rich no matter who is in the White House. The Dems have spent years making promises they can not keep and that is how they lost rural people.
I remember Andrew Sullivan saying the gas tax should be raised so that gas costs $5 a gallon, when somebody pointed out that would be hard for rural poor, he said “Screw em”. There you go, that is the basic attitude of of the oh so cool city folk to us red necks. screw em.
Well we screwed Sully didn’t we? We are smart enough to know that people like Kerry are going to find ways to avoid paying taxes no matter who wins an election and the economy has a life of its own. It seems the urbanites are still hanging on that old apron string. They want to be taken care of like the Europeans, that is their great ambition. I think that is naive.
I don’t talk about guns and Jesus but I do know that if there is a fight and George Bush is on one side of it and the Butcher of Baghdad Saddam Hussein is on the other side, that Saddam is the bad guy. This is a concept the Bay area just can not seem to grasp. And that is what lost them the election.
Nov 9, 2004 - 5:27 pm 14. Terrye:wx:
Those New England states are so small they are like suburbian areas of larger states. If you look at New York a good deal of the state is red, but it is a larger state.
I think tradition plays a part in voting trends as well.
Nov 9, 2004 - 5:31 pm 15. NickM:Washington and Oregon each have one large blue city (Seattle and Portland, respectively) that dominates the state’s politics.
BTW, the surprising numbers on BoifromTroy’s site are less surprising as further numbers have come in.
Nick
Nov 13, 2004 - 8:21 pm