Comments on: Now for Something Completely Different

By: Cletus

Cletus — Fri, 07 Jan 2005 21:15:50 +0000

There is a very good reason that China props up North Korea, and that is also the main reason they will not invade it, even if we think it would be a good idea. The area of China to the north of North Korea and then up along Russian/Chinese border is ethnically Korean. As it is now, an ethnic Korean in China looks across the border and sees a Korea that is worse than China was during the depths of the cultural revolution. Not very enticing… But if the North and South reunite, a lot of Southern money (and freedom, and prosperity) will flow into North Korea. China doesn’t want the ethnic Koreans to look south and think, they’re Korean and so am I, they’re doing pretty well, why shouldn’t I be included as well? The Chinese like having South Korea as a trading partner, and the South would never be willing to accept a Chinese invasion and occupation and continue the current trade relationship. The bottom line here is that North Korea serves the Chinese very well domestically as a discouragement to attempting a breakaway by a potentially fractious minority, while also giving the Chinese stature and leverage on the international stage, because other countries believe they have the ability to influence North Korea’s behavior, and they can use that as leverage in all sorts of situations. The Chinese would never invade North Korea, for the simple reason that it would be detrimental to their own national security and image around the world. (Tibet has only a few million mostly pacifist Buddhists; North Korea has 25 million of the most militarized people on earth, all raised from birth to hold their leader, independence and sovereignty to be the most important principles; worth, as they put it “becoming bullets and bombs to protect the leader”.) I’ve seen this fantasy scenario a few times, and thought I’d throw my two cents in. (FYI, I’m an American, a Korean linguist, and have lived in South Korea off and on since the 88 Olympics for a total of 13 years.)

By: zgatt

zgatt — Thu, 06 Jan 2005 23:31:56 +0000

We know China holds the keys to the region; this is why multilateral talks are so important. China sure does like tweaking the US’s nose, but one would expect it doesn’t enjoy the regional chaos the DPRK breeds.

The reason military action against an intact DPRK is impossible, from any position, is that they hold Soeul hostage with a massive conventional threat. The only hope appears to be that the regime and/or army collapses in such a way that other states (China, S.Korea, West) are able to quickly step in. I would bet the (substantial) US forces there are ready to sweep the threat against S.Korea given the opportunity, but it seems conservative to expect that to require weeks; in other words, this will have to be a fairly stable transition.

By: Joel Fleming

Joel Fleming — Thu, 06 Jan 2005 21:37:09 +0000

It seems to me as though this situation is roughly analagous to the Vietnamese invasion of Cambodia. In both cases, the intervening regime is/was a hardly a model of democratic governance but the status quo is/was so intolerable as to make invasion a desirable outcome.

By: JeremyR

JeremyR — Thu, 06 Jan 2005 19:51:16 +0000

China obviously could (and heck, maybe the French would send the Charles de Gaulle to help), but why would they?

As it is now, North Korea is essentially a client state.

And they could probably assassinate the North Korean leader and take over without invading.

But the Chinese are getting their money’s worth out of North Korea. There is nothing about the current situation that doesn’t help the Chineses. Sure, the humanitarian aspect is bad, but I’m sure that keeps the Chinese leaders up at night.

By: Dishman

Dishman — Thu, 06 Jan 2005 17:52:52 +0000

It’s my understanding that the Chinese actually have 600,000 troops near the border. The Nork army is 70% south. Essentially, if China wanted to go in, it would only be restricted by its own logistics capabilities and the threat of the Norks nuking Beijing.

By: John Moore ( Useful Fools )

John Moore ( Useful Fools ) — Thu, 06 Jan 2005 17:21:21 +0000

It is not clear that China has any interest in dumping the Nork regime. After all, by being the nation most able to affect them, they gain international leverage. The more dangerous the Norks, the more power the Chinese have – as long as they can credibly claim (quietly) an ability to prevent the use of Nork military power or WMDs. Whether that ability exists is another matter. Depending on their power over the Norks, they may be able to use them to deniably threaten us (an extreme example: “help Taiwan and the Norks will sell nukes to Al Qaeda” – passed along indirectly and subtly, of course).

Depending on their power over Kim Jong Il, they might prefer a regime change to implant a more pliable apparent lunatic.

China wants Taiwan. It also has a millenia long history of seeking “friendly” buffer states around it. It may even have imperialist designs on North Korea (last year China quietly said that Korea was historically part of China).

North Korea represents a threat to the US. China’s relationship with the US is complex, but we are certainly considered a geostrategic rival and an enemy of China’s Taiwan and Asian hegemonic goals. Hence they probably view North Korea as a lever to use against us. That is certainly consistent with their behavior so far.

Of course, we are also extremely important to China as a trading partner, just one of the complications in these calculations.

Furthermore, propping up North Korea is somewhat expensive to China, but not when viewed strategically. They provide supplies to the North, and have expensive deployments to try to stop Nork refugees (hardly the behavior of a nation that would go to war for humanitarian reasons!).

It is good that the issue of biological and chemical weapons came up. While chemical weapons probably don’t represent a strategic threat to the US, they could be a substantial economic threat in the sense of causing yet another massive demand for new security precautions throughout our civilian sector. Biologiccal weapons could be a Nork “doomsday weapon” against the world.

By: Former CNN Watcher

Former CNN Watcher — Thu, 06 Jan 2005 16:19:55 +0000

The redoubtable (and retired) blogger Steven den Beste mooted the Chinese invasion as the least bad solution to the North Korean tyranny 18 months ago.

http://denbeste.nu/cd_log_entries/2003/06/Rumorsofdisaster.shtml

By: Bostonian

Bostonian — Thu, 06 Jan 2005 15:25:50 +0000

OT to my favorite people on the Web:

Why is there not a lot more coverage of the WA state election? Over at http://www.soundpolitics.com, there’s a lot of detailed information about votes from dead people & felons, totals that don’t add up, practices that allowed provisional ballots to get mixed in irrevocably with the regular ballots, and so on.

It’s unbelievably mixed up and the (new) winner’s team is claiming this is the best run election in WA state history.

It’s so bad, and it was so very close, that a lot of people are agitating for a revote, a la Ukraine. (I’m one of them. The results are tainted beyond belief.)

By: Sandy P

Sandy P — Thu, 06 Jan 2005 14:22:16 +0000

For those who don’t know, Rantburg is a good place to keep abreast of the NorK situation.

But China can’t feed their own, they really can’t absorb another 15 million.

and the SorKs refuse to do it.

By: Terrye

Terrye — Thu, 06 Jan 2005 13:59:36 +0000

Those 100,000 Chinese troops massed on the NK border are there for a reason. I doubt if the Chinese want just anybody to be running the country. If they think the crazy mother in charge of the place is on his way out they might be more likely not less likely to invade. In the view of many a failed state is more dangerous than an autocratic one.